Earnings Season:
Truth (not Estimates)
The S&P 500:
--Valuation & Rankings
--MoneyFlow
BEGOS Markets:
Bond
Euro
Swiss Franc
Gold
Silver
Copper
Oil
S&P 500
BEGOS Measures:
Market Rhythms
Market Profiles
Market Trends
Market Values
Market Ranges
Market Magnets
19 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: This the final trading session until that for Sun/Mon, albeit tomorrow brings the release of Mar's Housing Starts/Permits. The BEGOS Markets are quite mixed with the Bond best at +0.4% whilst worst is Copper -1.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal leading the EDTR tracings at 136% followed by the Euro at 130%; the latter's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally gone negative and looks to so confirm come 06:00 PT such that the MRT for 1.14160 shall be nixed. Due today for the Econ Baro is Apr's Philly Fed Index, Mar's Retail Sales and Leading Indicators, and Feb's Business Inventories. In making lows for the year, Gold (1277) has returned down into the upper reaches of "The Box" (1280-1240) as 'twill be noted in the Saturday's Gold Update.
18 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only Copper +1.0% is showing any material net move, the balance of the BEGOS Markets otherwise little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro +0.2% does lead the EDTR tracings at 94% and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are rising toward their 0% axis; as well, the 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive in support of our 1.14160 MRT. At Market Ranges one sees their narrowing is stark pretty much across the board, in turn leading to a shorter list of candidates on the Market Rhythms page. Oil's cac vol is rolling from May into Jun. Feb's Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro, plus the Fed releases its Tan Tome.
16 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.3% and Copper "unch", the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, but not by much, the weakest two being Gold and Silver both -0.3% just as they were 'round this time yesterday; volatility is light-to-moderate. Still positive is the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward maintaining our MRT of 1.14160. The "wildly overbought" S&P so remains, its daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics readings all with red "sell" flags for 7 straight sessions, albeit by both Market Values and Market Magnets we've seen worse extremes than as present; still the moneyflow is thinning and the P/E unsustainably high should history again will out. For the Econ Baro we've Mar's IndProd/CapUtil and Apr's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Apr '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil -0.6% along with the metals triumvirate of Copper -0.5% and both Gold and Silver -0.3% are the BEGOS Markets downside leaders; the balance of the bunch are little changed; volatility is light. For the Euro our 1.14160 MRT is still in play per the positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's weekly net settles as tightly within the mid-"Whiny 1290s" these last few weeks, but the S&P's daily classic technical measures as being "wildly overbought". The Econ Baro starts a fairly busy week for incoming data with the Apr's NY State Empire Index.
12 Apr '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: During a portion of yesterday's session, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the red, generally meaning the Dollar is getting the bid; now, save for the Bond -0.5% -- it also having already traced 105% of its EDTR -- the balance of the 7 other components are up, led by Copper +1.9% (hello China trade deal?) and Oil +1.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive with the MRT of 1.14160. The S&P 500 remains extremely overbought by classic technical measures (daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics), along with the frothy moneyflow and beyond-expensive P/E. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's UofM Sentiment and Feb's Ex/Im prices.
11 Apr '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo, just +0.1%, is up amongst the BEGOS Markets; "unch" are the EuroCurrencies, whilst the downside leader is Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate; at Market Ranges and per our 05 Apr note, EDTRs continue narrowing, in some cases to year-over-year lows. The Euro, at present 1.13360, still is maintaining its positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward our 1.14160 MRT. The S&P 500, with our "live" P/E at 31.6x, is near-term extremely overbought by various classic textbook technical measures; moreover, the amount of money to move the S&P 1 point which peaked at over $900k in Jan, continues to drop, yesterday falling into the $400k range. Mar's PPI arrives for the Econ Baro.
10 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, Oil and the Spoo with the most net change at the moment of +0.3%; volatility is light with much high-level fundamentals in waiting, including an "emergency" Brexit summit, the ECB and Draghi (today rather than on the traditional Thu), banking CEOs giving Congressional testimony, and the FOMC's minutes from last month's meeting. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator is maintaining its positive track thus keeping our 1.14160 MRT intact, albeit Draghi's commentary can affect that. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's CPI.
09 Apr '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only the Swiss Franc and the Spoo are lower, and just barely at that, the metals triumvirate again the BEGOS Markets leaders, the firmest of which is Copper +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday at 12:00 PT the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a Long signal from that period's opening level of 1.13280, (at present 1.13460), for an MRT of 1.14160 ($1,100/cac); per Market Profiles, the Euro's most dominant supporter is 1.13000; but as a caution per Market Trends, the Euro's descending "Baby Blues" are contrary to price's recent rising. 'Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro, however Q1 earnings shall begin their appearance.
08 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Market leaders with Copper +1.1%, Gold +0.5% and Silver +0.3%; weakest is the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having recorded its 6th week of parabolic Short trend, albeit price is nor really declining; the piece also cites the divergence between the rising S&P and falling Econ Baro as the most vast since the Baro's inception back in 1998; due for it today is Feb's Factory Orders. Importantly with Q1 Earnings Season commencing, 'tis the first one for which comparison to a year ago will be under like tax cut rules.
05 Apr '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets again are expectedly subtle and lightly mixed either way, Oil being the weakest component -0.4% and Silver the firmest +0.2%; only 2 of the bunch have traced better than 50% (and barely that) of their EDTRs, namely Gold and the Bond. At Market Ranges, save for those same two markets, EDTRs are low looking back through a year ago. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the the Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are accelerating lower, but not as much so for Gold per the real-time reading. 'Course, Mar's payrolls report need be negotiated in about an hour's time.
04 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: A day ahead of StateSide jobs data we've another light-volatility session for the BEGOS Markets which are little changed in either direction: firmest is Oil +0.3% and weakest is Silver -0.4%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 31.3x. At Market Magnets, both Oil and the Spoo appear "high" and the Bond "low". Per Market Trends, 6 of the 8 components are exhibiting 21-day linreg uptrends: only that for Silver and Copper are down. And via Market Values, Oil is still some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line. Beyond Thu's usual Jobless Claims, 'tis otherwise a quiet day for the Econ Baro, the upward divergence from it by the S&P remaining forebodingly stark as ever.
03 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.5% is lower, the balance of the 7 other Markets moving higher with Copper leading the pack +0.9% followed by the Spoo +0.5%; volatility ranges from light for Gold which has traced just 28% of its EDTR to robust as the Bond's tracing is 100%. On the list of Market Rhythms is the Spoo's 1-hr. Price Oscillator for which 9 of its past 10 signals have followed through to a move of at least 20 points ($1,000/cac): the Rhythm's median duration is 2-3 calendar days. Due for the Baro today is Mar's ADP jobs data and the month's ISM(Svc) report.
02 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Light volatility marks the BEGOS Markets with only Copper and Silver having traced a bit better than 50% of their respective EDTRs; Oil +0.5% is the firmest of the bunch whilst weakest is Copper -0.6%. In settling yesterday at 2867, the S&P is just over 70 points from its all-time high of 2940; our call from that level for a 27% correction down to 2154 did reach as far as 20% to 2347, but we've obviously not ruled out the return all the way down to 2154, especially as you know ad nausea the "live" P/E being now 31.6x and the frothy-thin Moneyflow data. In fact per Market Values, the Spoo is only some 56 points "high" above its smooth valuation line, whereas Oil is a 5 full points above its. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Durable Orders.
1 Apr '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Gold Update points to the 3 economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets leading the pack through Q1: this session, the same group are firmly starting Q2 with Oil +1.1% and both Copper and the Spoo +0.6%; volatility is moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. The Gold Update also notes on the Econ Baro graphic therein of it now at the low level which first reached down to in 2008 then saw the S&P's 51% correction into 2009. Due for the Baro today are Mar's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, Feb's Retail Sales and Construction Spending, and Jan's Business Inventories.
29 Mar '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' rocker: 'tis +1.5% and has traced 114% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate with a bevy of incoming data due for the Econ Baro, including Mar's Chicago PMI, Feb's Personal Income and New Home Sales, and Jan's delayed readings on Personal Spending along with the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading. Save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the components are all higher, the 2nd firmest being Oil +1.0%. We've nixed our Spoo MRT of 2789.75 as the 4-hr. Parabolics just confirmed flipping back to Long at 04:00 PT. 'Tis already the final trading day of Q1; (it goes quickly). The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x.
28 Mar '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +0.6% and the mirroring downside leader being Oil -0.6%; volatility is moderate with the Bond leading the EDTR tracings at 76%. Gold's cac volume is moving from Apr into Jun. The list at Market Rhythms has increased: one we're watching is the Spoo's 4-hr. Parabolics which confirmed a flip to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT from an entry of 2809.75 with an MRT of 2789.75 ($1,000/cac). The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.
27 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The save haven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Bond +0.5%; those that are economically-driven are lower, namely Oil -0.9% and both Copper and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 129%. The Bond tapped 150^00 this session, its highest trade since 18 Jan 2018; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating higher and nearing their +80% axis, and yet per Market Values price is only 2 points above the smooth valuation line; but as a near-term caution, price appears well-extended above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro awaits Mar's Consumer Confidence.
26 Mar '19, 06:14 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a mild downside bias; only Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.3%; at this early point of the session volatility is light with only the Bond displaying any material EDTR tracing at 63%. At Market Trends, with the exception of those for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other "Baby Blues" are in ascent. Per Market Values, none of the 5 primary components are significantly away from their smooth valuation lines. Due for the Econ Baro today are Feb's Housing Starts/Permits.
25 Mar '19, 12:59 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week mixed with a bevy of incoming Econ Data for the Econ Baro throughout. Plus-siders include the metals, whilst Oil, the Bond and the Spoo are weaker; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the buoyant, bidding nature supportive of price despite the parabolic Trend having completed its fourth week to the ShortSide; per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are sporting an adroit turnaround to the upside, whilst at Market Values, Gold is actually below (by 16 points) its smooth valuation line.
22 Mar '19, 14:03 Central Euro Time: With Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.1%, one may sense where the BEGOS Markets bid is: the Bond, +0.7, along with Gold +0.2%; volatility is notably robust with 4 of the 8 components tracing beyond 100% of their EDTRs. Per Markets Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are in real-time accelerating their fall whilst price has fallen below the base of the 10-day Market Profile. The amount of money it takes to move the S&P 500 1 point has now been reduced from over $900k in January to below $600k at present; the Index's live P/E is 31.8x. Incoming data for the Econ Baro today includes Feb's Existing Home Sales and Jan's Wholesale Inventories.
21 Mar '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: The red and white metals are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, Copper +1.1% and Silver +0.6%; weakest are Oil -0.3% and less so the EuroCurrencies; volatility again is moderate-to-robust with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 108%; nonetheless, Copper's EDTR is the narrowest 'tis been (0.391 points assigned for today) in better than a year. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are starkly deviating lower from price, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to down. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's Philly Fed Index and Feb's Leading (or by the Baro, lagging) Indicators.
20 Mar '19, 15:47 Central Euro Time: Heading toward the FOMC's "no change" rate decision we've the BEGOS Markets mixed: firmest at present is the Bond +0.3%; weakest is Silver -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, which is a bit unusual pre-Fed. From the current edition of The Gold Update: "[the FOMC] gathers this coming Tuesday/Wednesday (19-20 March) toward deciding to do nothing. For were they to do something -- be it a rate rise that the economy would not be able to sustain, or a rate reduction that would signal they've acknowledged the economy is weakening -- we 'spect either way the S&P 500 would not take it well. Rather, keep the complacency of denial alive as the can is further punted down the road. For 'tis all too fragile to do anything at this point."
19 Mar '19, 12:28 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Components are in the black which tells us (without peeking) the Dollar is working lower. Firmest is Copper +1.0% followed by Oil +0.8%; volatility is moderate. Despite Copper's gain, its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are (in real-time) crossing below their 0% axis as the linreg trend rotates from up to down; as well, the red metal's EDTR of 0.0410 points remains near the year-over-year low of 0.3960 points. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Factory Orders for which consensus expects some improvement.
18 Mar '19, 12:33 Central Euro Time: Only the Bond -0.1% is in the red to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, which are metals-led by Copper +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Apr into May. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal continuing to having a buoying bid in spite of the recent new weekly parabolic Short trend; the missive also highlights the S&P's having risen in the face of the thinning moneyflow, abnormally high P/E ratios, and lackluster Econ Baro, which today looks to the NAHB Housing Market Index.
15 Mar '19, 13:59 Central Euro Time: A weaker and worse-than-expected NY State Empire Index isn't keeping the Spoo down, it presently +0.3% even with Silver +1.0%, Gold +0.5% and the Bond as well +0.3%; only Oil and the Swiss Franc are in the red; volatility is moderate although Silver has traced 102 % of its EDTR. Cac Volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun as First Position is Mon. Still on tap for the Econ Baro this session is Mar's UofM Sentiment Survey and Feb's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization. The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.7x and the moneyflow per point movement continues to decline.
14 Mar '19, 12:01 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -1.5% followed by Gold -1.4%; least weak is the Bond just fractionally negative; volatility is moderate-to-robust with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 120%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics flipped to Long thus nixing our MRT target for 2705.50. That said, we still deem the S&P as significantly expensive by the measures of Moneyflow, notably the declining amount of money it takes to move the S&P 1 point, its P/E ratio, and now again its Market Values reading which in real-time finds the Spoo 72 points above its smooth valuation line. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Ex/Im Prices and Jan's New Home Sales.
13 Mar '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, the PMs and Oil look firm early on with just the Bond mildly lower; volatility appears moderate. CPI, Durables and Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro. The Spoo's daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide, but just barely so.
12 Mar '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond -0.2% and the Spoo "unch", the BEGOS Markets are skewed to the upside led by Oil and Copper, both +1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Copper has traced 102% of its EDTR. The Spoo at 2788 still maintains its Parabolics to the ShortSide with our MRT for 2705.50, albeit a trade today above 2806 ought nix that Target; meanwhile per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their descent. In fact, except for the Bond, none of the Baby Blues for the other 7 components are rising. Jan's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Mar '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets as the week begins; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, keeping intact our MRT of 2705.50; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" whilst still above the 0% axis are accelerating their decline; and although per Market Values the Spoo (in realtime) is smack on its smooth valuation line, the more daunting measures of thinning moneyflow and an all-too-expensive "live" p/e of 28.9x support lower levels. Jan's Retail Sales highlight the Econ Baro's start to a busy week.
08 Mar '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is more ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, which is a bit unusual given the Feb employment data has yet to be released; the metals triumvirate is notably rangy with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, followed by Gold's 85% and then Silver's 70%, the latter leading in the change department at +0.6%; Oil and Copper are the weakest components both -1.2% The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the Shortside: as cac volume is moving from Mar into Jun with 5 points of premium in the new front month, we're adding same to our MRT thus revising it from 2700.50 to 2705.50 basis Jun. Due too for the Econ Baro today are Jan's Housing Starts/Permits.
07 Mar '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: Another mostly light session thus far by volatility, the rangiest EDTR tracing being 65% by Gold, and yet price at present is "unch". For the yellow metal, the top of The Box (1280-1240) seems supportive given the lows of the prior 3 sessions (from yesterday back) have been 1284, 1282 and 1284; 1281 has traded in this session. Firmest is Oil +1.2% and weakest is Copper -0.5%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics have again quickly flipped back to Short effective the opening price of 2770.50: by the Market Rhythms page an aggressive MRT is 2700.50. Jan's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro along with Q4's Productivity data. ECB's Draghi at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets, the rangiest component being Gold with an EDTR tracing of 46%; that for the Swiss Franc is 25%; no one component is at present changed by 0.2% either way. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) below their +80% axis for the first time since 18 Jan; and per the aforementioned froth both herein and in The Gold Update: as of 29 Jan it took $911k to move the S&P 1 point; that has since been reduced to $675k. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's ADP jobs data and Dec's delayed Trade Deficit; in the latter part of the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
05 Mar '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Another split session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the safe havens being down and the economic-drivens being up. The latter are led by Copper +1.2% followed by Oil +0.5%; the Bond and the Swiss Franc both are -0.2%. Volatility is mostly light, save for Copper's EDTR tracing of 101%. We are nixing the Spoo's MRTs for 2759.75 (conservatively) and 2725.25 (aggressively) despite price at present (2793) being below 28 Feb's opening "entry" level of 2795 as yesterday's whipsaw range of 52 points was sufficient to flip the daily Parabolics back to Long, (provisionally by the week's up gap opening and then as confirmed at yesterday's close). That noted, the amount of money to move the S&P itself 1 point continues to dwindle, the Index thus supported only by froth, and certainly not earnings given our 30.5x "live" P/E.
04 Mar '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week quite mixed with volatility ranging from light to robust. The upside leaders are Oil +0.7% and the Spoo +0.2%, whilst to the downside are Copper -0.9% and Gold -0.6%. Despite Oil's rise, its EDTR tracing is just 39%; Copper's is 139%. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded for 2018: for the 463 S&P 500 components having reported, 330 (71%) bettered their bottom lines over 2017's Q4, however as we've noted, in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% bettered). The Gold Update points to price's pullback as healthy given the support of both "The Whiny 1290s" and The Box (1280-1240). Dec's delayed Construction Spending begins the Econ Baro's week.
01 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: This morning is the opposite of yesterday at this time: the safe havens are being offered led by Gold and Silver both -0.4%; getting the bid are Copper +0.8%, the Spoo +0.5%, and Oil +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Today's close shall make official the end of Gold's weekly parabolic Long trend which lasted 24 weeks, 3rd best by duration since 2001. Despite the Spoo being up, its daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide (barring 2813.25 trading today; price at present is 2802.00 and per its page, the "guesstimate high if an up day" is 2806.25). Per a check of economic calendars, items due today for the Econ Baro include Feb's ISM(Mfg) Index, Jan's Personal Income (but not Personal Spending), but both of those metrics as delayed for Dec, along with that month's read on Core PCE inflation.
28 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe havens are getting the bid ahead of our first peek at Stateside Q4 GDP: the Swiss Franc is +0.8% followed by Gold and Silver both +0.4%; down by same is Copper, followed by Oil and the Spoo both -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. After yesterday's note on a lack of mentioning MRTs, we've one that has since appeared worth noting: the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed a flip to Short per this session's opening (2795.25); price this session already has been as low 2781.75, however a conservative target is 2759.75 ($1,800/cac) or as construed from the Market Rhythms page 2725.25 ($3,500/cac). In addition to the GDP, the Econ Baro also looks to Feb's Chicago PMI.
27 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: 'Tis another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with Oil the upside leader at +1.0% and Silver the weakest component -0.4%, the cac volume for which is moving from Mar into May; volatility ranges from an robust EDTR tracing for the Swiss Franc of 114% down to only 38% for the Bond, its cac volume moving from Mar into Jun. We've not mentioned any MRTs in nearly a month: in reviewing those that have qualified in the end-of-day work we've noted a tendency for greater risk amounts in assessing the past recent signals: lending to that notion is the decline in components' volatility per the Market Ranges page as market's turn back on themselves rather than follow-through with continued trend. Fed Chair Powell moves his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee; the Econ Baro looks for Jan's Pending Home Sales and Dec's delayed Factory Orders.
26 Feb '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: We've a more subdued session for the BEGOS Markets as Fed Chair Powell's testimony Senate Banking Committee comes 'round 07:00 Pacific Time. Up the most is Oil +0.2% whilst off the most is Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. With respect to our noting the S&P 500 is supported neither by its components' earnings nor its Moneyflow, the Spoo itself by our Market Values page is better than 100 points above its smooth valuation line as has been the case through most of Feb. Copper's cac volume is moving from Mar into May. Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's Consumer Confidence and Dec's delayed Housing Starts/Building Permits.
25 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets, the the weakest of which is Oil -1.0%, with Copper firmest +0.4%. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal having locked in a 24th straight week of parabolic Long trend: as for what would be a 25th week, Gold need stay north of 1310; at present 'tis 1332. The missive also cites the deteriorating Moneyflow of the S&P 500 as the Index nonetheless moves higher, which by the Spoo looks to be the case come today's open. The Econ Baro begins a fairly busy week with Dec's Wholesale Inventories; the week also concludes Q4 Earnings Season, the weakest of 2018's four quarters. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 29.1x.
22 Feb '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets range from the EuroCurrencies being "unch" to Copper being +1.6% followed by Oil +1.0%; volatility ranges from the Euro having traced just 32% of its EDTR to Copper's 120% tracing. Per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for the PMs, (despite their recent price pops), are notably dropping: those for Gold settled yesterday at +59% but in realtime are now +53% whilst those for Silver had settled at +10% but are now +4%, the latter for the white metal likely affirming the 21-day LinReg trend changing to down come the new week. The Econ Baro has already concluded its week mildly lower.
21 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only the EuroCurrencies are barely not in the red, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being led lower by Silver -0.8% and then Copper -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Silver has traced 121% of its EDTR. From a year ago-to-date the Spoo's average EDTR is 39 points, at present 'tis 30 points, a level for which the actual trading range in the past 10 sessions has been exceeded only 4 times. The on-balance light week for incoming Econ Data brings a good dose of it today for the Econ Baro including Feb's Philly Fed Index, Jan's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales and Dec's delayed Durable Orders.
20 Feb '19, 04:37 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of the bunch actually being Silver +0.3%; the weakest is Oil -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Stocks look to stay quiet (by the "unch" Spoo) to at least start their session at this writing 'round 2778, the S&P 500 having closed Fri at 2776, (no trading Mon) and Tue at 2780. The Econ Baro has little input this week and as noted in yesterday's comment, the earnings results for 2018's weakest quarter are fairly known. Still, Gold this session has traded as high as 1349: that's just 28 points from key goal Base Camp 1377, a level not seen since 06 July 2016. Reclamation of 1377 then opens the door to our conservative forecast for these past two years of 1434.
19 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Day two for GLOBEX settlement today rightly expands the EDTR tracings led by Copper at 105%; both the red metal and Oil are +0.4%, second only to Gold +0.6%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. Silver continues to lack pace, +0.3%, despite being bettered by the other two metals: the Gold/Silver ratio at present is 84.4x. For the S&P 500's Q4 Earnings Season, about 85% of the companies due to report have so done with 73% bettering 2017's Q4, fairly confirming this is 2018's weakest quarter, (each of the prior three quarters showing 85% having improved; see our 05 Feb comment). Our "live" P/E ratio is 29.5x and all three time periods on the Moneyflow page continue to suggest the frothy S&P shall materially come down.
18 Feb '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The two-day session for Tue settlement finds the BEGOS Markets mostly higher, the two exceptions being the Bond -0.1% and the Spoo "unch"; firmest is Copper +0.5% followed by the EuroCurrencies both +0.3%; volatility is light to moderate; the trading halt spanning the two days is 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time. The Gold Update cites the reluctance to sell the yellow metal, its weekly parabolic Long trend now entering what would be a 24th week barring price slipping below 1300, (presently 1328). Per Market Values, Gold is only slightly above its smooth valuation line and equally so above its Market Magnet.
15 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the 2 EuroCurrencies which are only mildly lower, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper +1.2%, and then Gold, Silver and Oil all +0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate except for Copper which has traced 145% of its EDTR. Despite Copper's being firm today, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends for the red metal are in realtime again lower, and the daily MACD confirmed a (albeit scant) negative cross per today's open. Oil's cac volume is moving from Mar into Apr. The Econ Baro completes its week with 6 metrics due, including Feb's NY State Empire Index and UofM Consumer Sentiment, plus Jan's Ex/Im pricing and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
14 Feb '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only the PMs are mildly lower for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Silver -0.2%; otherwise to the upside, firmest is Oil +0.8% followed by Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have fallen below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels ahead: presently 2.80 there is structural support in the 2.73 area; there currently are 7 Copper studies in the Market Rhythms list, however the "net profit of all tests" are not that impressive, indicative that the occasional false signal mitigates a material portion of the true signals. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's PPI and Dec's delayed Retail Sales.
13 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit more settled that they've been at this time the prior two sessions, with volatility light-to moderate. Oil +0.6% is the upside leader; Silver -0.2% is the weak link and is also the rangiest component with a 65% EDTR tracing. Obviously per yesterday's comment we're very wary of the froth in the S&P 500: adding to that, yesterday's 35-point rise in the S&P carried Moneyflow support for just a 22-point rise, and per Market Values, the Spoo is now some 124 points above the smooth valuation line. Over these next 3 days the Econ Baro takes in 15 metrics including today's CPI data for Jan.
12 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round now yesterday, the Swiss Franc is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings, this time at 118%; the currency and the Bond are both -0.4%; only worse is Copper -0.5%. The big gainer is Oil +2.0% followed by the Spoo +0.7% and then the PMs; session volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo is again teasing the upper side of the S&P's "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719) which was completed Mon a week ago: per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 105 points above its smooth valuation line whilst per our Moneyflow page, the quarterly measure through yesterday's close suggests the Index ought be 173 points lower. The "live" P/E is at present 30.1x.
11 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red with both Oil and Copper off the most at -0.8%, followed by Silver -0.7% and then Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having had "nothing" upon which to trade but this ensuing week ought provide more impetus to so do, along with the notion that the weekly parabolic Long trend of 22 weeks by historical comparisons may soon run out of puff. Indeed the week is off to a busy trading start with volatility moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 116%.
08 Feb '19, 04:40 Pacific Time: Another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with a lean to the downside, Oil and the Spoo again both -0.5%; the Bond, Gold and Silver are all +0.2%; volatility is mostly light, the Econ Baro having completed its intake of metrics for the week. As noted yesterday Market Ranges continue to compress; at Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in realtime) perceptively starting to roll over, whilst those for Oil have (in realtime) taken a notable drop today having settled yesterday at +72% but are now at +51%. Gold appears en route to completing a 22nd week of parabolic Long trend which would rank alone as 4th from 2001-to-date.
07 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Yesterday's reports due for Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs are delayed in the wake of the gov't shutdown. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with both Oil and the Spoo -0.5% and the Bond and Copper both +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. The recent narrowing in components' volatility stands stark at the Market Ranges Page especially for the Spoo, Oil and EuroCurrencies. At our page for Moneyflow, that for the S&P 500 continues unsupportive for the Index across all 3 time periods, plus our "live" P/E remains at very lofty levels, 32.2x at present.
06 Feb '19, 04:36 Pacific Time: The only BEGOS Market in the black is Copper +0.2%, otherwise, the Bond is "unch" and the other components are in the red led by Silver -0.8% and then Oil -0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Values, Gold is (in realtime) right at its smooth valuation line, however the Euro is nearly 0.04 points low. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are crossing below their -80% axis; thus the PMs are struggling to stay firm as the EuroCurrencies have somewhat weakened. Due for the Econ Baro are Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus the delayed Trade Deficit for Nov.
05 Feb '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Yesterday the S&P 500 completed its "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719): 'twould be ideal from here to resume our still-expected 27% correction to 2154. That said, the Spoo +0.2% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Gold and Copper both +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are down, led by Oil -0.8%; volatility is light. Recorded are now half of the S&P companies due to report within Q4 Earnings Season and "only" 75% have bettered the prior year's like quarter, however that number was 85% in each of the prior three quarters.
04 Feb '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: Save for the "unch" Spoo, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are down to start the week, the PM's being the weakest of the bunch with Silver -1.0% and Gold -0.5% as is Oil; volatility is moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 92%. The Gold Update highlights this past Jan as "ordinary" for the yellow metal and notes that the weekly parabolic flip price to Short would arrive above The Box (1240-1280); Gold's current weekly parabolic Long trend at 21 weeks duration ties for 4th on the Long side since 2001. Nov's delayed Factory Orders report comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Feb '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the bias being to the downside led by Copper -0.8%, Oil -0.5%, and both Silver and the Spoo -0.4%; the EuroCurrencies and the Bond are mildly higher; volatility is mostly moderate, the laggard being the Spoo's EDTR tracing of just 28% with the Jan jobs data in the balance. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Jan's ISM Index plus more gov't shutdown catchup metrics for Nov's Construction Spending and Wholesale Inventories. The FinMedia is quite a-buzz about the S&P 500's best Jan in 32 years, yet the Index is only where 'twas back on 07 Dec, indeed having almost completed a "golden ratio" retracement to 2719 (basis the Sep high to the Dec low).
31 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolic Short signals on both Oil and the Spoo were essentially "one day wonder whipsaws", both flipping right back to Long and nixing our MRTs respectively of 51.12 and 2576.25. Indeed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are modestly higher and volatility is again light-to-moderate, the Euro being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 58%, the tightest being the Spoo with just a 27% tracing. Delayed by the gov't shutdown, Nov's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, along with Jan's Chicago PMI and Q4's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil's daily Parabolic remain Short despite price (53.85) rising for the 2nd straight session: but a trade not that much higher through 54.18 would nix the 51.12 MRT as the study would flip to Long; still, Oil's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are beginning to descend. Meanwhile, the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Short for an MRT of 2576.25. Save for the Swiss Franc and the Bond, the BEGOS Markets are higher, Oil indeed the firmest +1.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate ahead of the Fed. Due for Econ Baro are Jan's ADP jobs data and Dec's Pending Home Sales.
29 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil begins the session with a new MRT of 51.12 as the daily Parabolics confirm a flip to Short; there is some entry advantage with price presently 52.35, up from the opening trigger of 52.12. Indeed, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Market are "unch" to higher, the most being Copper +0.7% followed by both Silver and Copper +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, but the Bond with just a 28% tracing. The Econ Baro kicks into gear for a busy data week with Jan's Consumer Confidence.
28 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets range from "unch" to lower, led by Oil -1.4%; volatility is mostly light with Silver the widest EDTR tracer at 64% and the Swiss Franc the narrowest at 33%. Gold at 1299 has been struggling to maintain its final hour Friday pop above 1300 to 1303 on well-above average volume for that specific trading hour (21:00-22:00 GMT) as is noted in The Gold Update; the yellow metal's parabolic Long trend of 20 weeks ties for 5th best amongst Long trends this millennium. Gold's volume remains in the Feb cac but ought fully roll into Apr in the next day or so.
25 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's 50.85 MRT noted yesterday (generated Wed) was quickly nixed as the 8-hr. Moneyflow whipsaws across its signaling area (48-52 on a 0-100 scale); still, Oil -0.2% is only 1 of 2 BEGOS Markets which are lower, the other being the Bond -0.1%. Firmest is the Spoo +0.6% followed by the Euro, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate, the Euro again the rangiest of the bunch with a 70% EDTR tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all continue to work lower whilst those for Oil in real-time are just beginning to curl down from the +90% area.
24 Jan '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and Spoo, both +0.2%, are higher amongst the BEGOS Markets; down the most for the balance of the bunch is Silver -0.7%; volatility is mostly moderate, the rangiest component being the Euro with an EDTR tracing of 89% ahead of the ECB's policy statement followed by Draghi's press conference. Oil's 8-hr. Moneyflow produced an MRT yesterday (at 08:00 PT) for 50.85; however the entry point back then was 52.85; price at present is 52.16, thus the risk is dearer if nixed. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Leading Indicators, the consensus for which is negative.
23 Jan '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is again the BEGOS Markets leader, the weak link being the Bond -0.3%; volatility is light, exemplary that per Market Ranges all 8 components week-over-week have narrowing EDTRs. At Market Trends the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all find their "Baby Blues" in decline with room to spare for still lower price levels. And at Market Profiles only Oil and the Spoo are above their midpoints. As the inflow thickens for Q4 Earnings Season's results, 47 of the S&P 500 have reported with "only" 35 of those -- i.e. 74% -- bettering the prior year's like period: in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% had bettered; thus at least early on, Q4 is not keeping pace with 2018's prior quarters.
22 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues with Oil, -1.7% passing Copper -1.5% on the downside for the weakest BEGOS Market position; firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold is back atop The Box (1240-1280) at 1282, a Market Profile support level, however the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating lower, as is the case with Silver: the white metal shows no notable structural support until the 14.90s, thus threatening the recent run not quite up to 16. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed for MLK Day, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway with most of the BEGOS Markets working lower, led by Copper -0.8%, Silver -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has slipped back inside The Box (1240-1280) for the first time since 04 Jan: The Gold Update highlights price's narrow trading range through much of last week, prior to Fri's fall recording a net loss year-to-date. An avid reader points to the current Barron's piece on Newmont acquiring Goldcorp, and Barrick acquiring Randgold: both combinations ought foster materially improved management.
18 Jan '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Again we've Oil leading the BEGOS Markets, but this time to the upside, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +0.8%; the PMs are the weak links with Gold -0.6% and Silver -0.5%; the Gold/Silver ratio is 83.0x; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs at Market Trends are now breaking down more noticeably. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 85% whilst that for the Swiss Franc is just 20%. For Gold, the top of The Box (1240-1280) ought provide some structural support. For the Econ Baro, due are the UofM's Sentiment Survey for Jan and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for Dec.
17 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, again is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; Oil's cac volume is moving from Feb into Mar; 2nd weakest is the Spoo, -0.5% and firmest is the Bond, +0.2%; volatility is light. Gold's "Neverland" (i.e. The Whiny 1290s) is essentially keeping price therein entrapped: Gold's EDTR is 11 points, and yet its entire range thus far this week is but 10 points (from 1297 down to 1287; price at present is 1294); per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" as anticipated are now down (in realtime) to the +80% level; Silver's are beginning to accelerate lower, now down to +73%. Jan's Philly Fed Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
16 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, +0.8% and the Spoo, +0.1%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs have been falling for all 8 components, clearly the most being for the Spoo, followed by Oil. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in realtime) have dropped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels ahead: we don't really see much structural support until the 14.90s; 'twould be a shame to give back all that working up through most of the 15 handle (on verra); Gold's Baby Blues are also lower (at +82% in realtime). Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed: Q4 Earnings Season is beginning to kick in and today brings the UK vote on Brexit (11:00 Pacific Time) ahead of which the Dollar is getting a bid, in turn finding the Swiss Franc -0.6%, the weakest of the bunch, followed closely by the Euro, -0.5%; to the upside the firmest component is Oil, +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro with the rangiest EDTR tracing at 94%, whilst that for Oil is but 33%. Per Markets Trends, Gold's and Silver's "Baby Blues" are a bit lower today for the 3rd straight session, albeit they remain above their respective +80% axes; more in free fall are those for the Bond and EuroCurrencies. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Both Copper and Oil are -1.2% to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.9%; Gold is firmest, +0.6%, and of note thereto, NEM is buying GG for $10B; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update stresses price revisiting "Neverland", aka The Whiny 1290s: year-to-date the 1290s have traded everyday and 'tis a zone within which price has had a tendency historically to get stuck; per Market Profiles, 1291 has been the most dominantly traded price for the past 2 weeks; for Silver, which is "unch" rather than up with Gold, 15.700 shows as the dominate price.
11 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Almost in mirrored reverse of what we saw at this time yesterday, save for the Spoo, -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Oil, +1.0% and then the metals triumvirate; volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver tracing 71% of its EDTR, but the Spoo's range continuing its narrowing with just a 17% tracing. Despite the Bond being firmer today, per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are accelerating their drop below the +80% axis: however with price presently 145^15, the 144-145 range from some 2 weeks back appears as price clustering. Incoming data due for the Econ Baro is highlighted by Dec's CPI.
10 Jan '19, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond which is "unch", the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, the recent winning streaks for both the Spoo, -0.5%, and Oil, -0.3%, poised to come to an end; at Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil have recovered from their respective extreme "low" readings to which we'd pointed in prior weeks. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc being the most rangy with an 82% tracing of its EDTR; such measure per Market Ranges for the Spoo reached as high as 82 on 27 Dec, since having declined to 67 for today; indeed yesterday's actual range was just 28 points. There are a number of FedHeads speaking today including Chairman Powell at the Econ Club of Washington.
09 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: To the upside the BEGOS Markets are led by Oil, +2.2% in rising for the 7th straight day; to the downside the PMs are weakest, but only mildly so with Gold -0.3% and Silver -0.2%; week-to-date for Gold the top of The Box (1240-1280) has been supportive; session volatility is light. In a note last evening to a trading colleague we wrote re: the Spoo that "...Following better than a month of quite “thin” bid and offer sizes (roughly 1/3 of “normal”), the Spoo’s sizes today were ramped up toward 2/3 of “normal”. The EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) remains extremely high, however has begun starting to drop as the liquidity thickens. The EDTR for Tuesday was 74 points (between the low and high) but the actual range was just 34 points, the third-narrowest since Thanksgiving Day..."
08 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The S&P (2450) now sits some 400 points below its all-time high (2940) and 400 points above our targeted correction low (2154); the Spoo at present (2569) is +0.6% suggesting the rally continue for a 3rd day; firmest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil, +0.8%, attempting a 6th straight up day; weakest is Gold, -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for each of Gold, Silver and the Bond appear poised to come off of their respective ceilings, whilst those for Copper look due to rise from the floor: however, once the selling resumes in the overall S&P correction, the safe havens ought resume getting the bid. Nov's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro late in the session.
07 Jan '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo had opened the week up as much as 0.9% "on China trade hopes"; 'tis presently -0.1%; leading to the upside is Oil, +1.8%; the PMs, EuroCurrencies and Bond all are higher by 0.4%-0.5%; Copper like the Spoo is marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. As traders return from the year-end holiday we'll see if thin size conditions persist such that volatility remains rampant: recall such was already the case well prior to the holidays; the EDTR for the Spoo is 77 points (of which 28 or 37% have been traced); notwithstanding Friday's rally, per Market Values the Spoo still shows as 96 points "low", but per MoneyFlow the suggestion is for the S&P to ultimately resolve lower. Dec's ISM(Svc) starts a light load of metrics for the Econ Baro's week; Q4 Earnings Season starts as well.
04 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil +2.9%, Copper +1.6% and the Spoo +1.2% are the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the latter's rise at present would recover 1/2 of yesterday's 62-point loss (-2.5%) in the S&P; the PMs are the weak links as is the Bond which is off the most at -0.4%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, recent trending has these specific components well-away from their smooth valuation lines: in real-time the Bond is 9 points "high", Gold is 80 points "high" and the Spoo is 154 points "low"; but the S&P itself by all three Moneyflow durations suggests still lower levels are ahead. Dec's jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
03 Jan '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The overnight change in the Spoo (presently -14.50 from the the 14:00 Pacific Time GLOBEX close) is post the "fallout" from the negative AAPL outlook from which the Spoo had already dropped 20 points; thus at present, the S&P would decline some 35 points at the open; otherwise, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper, +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Of note, the Yen (not a formal BEGOS component) has traced 206% of its EDTR given its having had what is being termed a "flash crash" gap from the 14:00 close of .0092340 to the 15:00 open of .0094040 (or inversely -1.8% from 108.3 to 106.3). Due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP Employment data, the ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales.
02 Jan '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: The new year begins with a reversal of that which we saw on Monday, most of the BEGOS Markets now in the red with Oil off the most, -1.8%, followed by the Spoo, -1.5%; we continue view the S&P as in an overall 27% correction from 2940 ultimately to 2154: 75% of that course has been already traced, the S&P having reached down to 2347 a week ago. The Bond and Gold are to the upside in typical safe haven bid fashion. Rangiest of the bunch is Copper with a 113% tracing of its EDTR and overall volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per its Market Profile, Oil has slipped below its dominant supporter of 45.50 and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are extending their run lower.
31 Dec '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: The year's final trading session is to the upside for most of the BEGOS Markets, led by Oil, +3.0% and the Spoo, +0.9%; only the Bond is lower, -0.1%. The Gold Update maintains the same forecast high(s) for next year: conservatively 1434 and aggressively 1526. Gold is trading above The Box (1240-1280) at 1285: the yellow metal has finished higher on the last trading day of the year 13 of 17 times millennium-to-date. All 8 BEGOS components look to complete the year in the red, the non-component Dollar being up some 4% for 2019. Be safe and have a Happy New Year!
28 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: With the Spoo +0.8% and firmest of the BEGOS Markets, one can't help but wonder should the S&P net a 3rd straight up day within the overall correction that 'twill then all go wrong come the year's last trading day on Monday: on verra; only Oil is lower, -0.4%, and volatility is moderate, save for the Swiss Franc which has traded 103% of its EDTR. The Spoo's EDTR is 82 points, perhaps (without reviewing it) the most volatile reading since The Black Swan cascade of 2008/2009. With no Econ Data scheduled for Monday, today brings the Econ Baro's last 2 metrics for the year: Dec's Chicago PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
27 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: One quarter of yesterday's robust gain (+5.4%) in the Spoo has at present eroded (-1.5%), as has -2.7% of Oil's +9.2% gain; session volatility is moderate, save for Silver's having traced 106% of its EDTR, the white metal being +0.4% after breaking up into the 15s yesterday for the 1st time since 15 Aug: the Gold/Silver ratio is 84.0x. The "live" P/E of the S&P returned yesterday to an extremely high 37.8x. In a note post-close to our Investors Roundtable: "...The S&P had a strong +5.5% push higher today on fairly light volume, (i.e. 'thin' trading conditions) such that bid and offer sizes were about 1/3 of normal, which makes it very easy for the market to move. The market traded right up into a 'resistance nest' here in the 2473-2476 zone such that 'tis an ideal place from which to resume lower once again, if not by New Year then soon after..." For the Econ Baro today comes Dec's Consumer Confidence.
26 Dec '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Copper is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, having traced 170% of its EDTR; price is at present +1.5%, 2nd only to Oil's being +1.6%; weakest is the Euro, -0.4%; volatility otherwise is moderate. Despite the recent selling in the Spoo, per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" are only just today (in realtime) crossing below their -80% axis, having not been that low 01 Nov, (price then 2723 vs. 2355 now); at Market Values, the Spoo shows as a very extreme 308 points below the smooth valuation line: however by the S&P's Moneyflow page, the Index ought still be far lower than it currently is, indeed by 458 points via the quarterly measure, well below our 2154 target with which we're sticking; but the "live" P/E (33.4x) is not coming off as much as we'd initially anticipated to the extent stocks would remain expensive upon reaching that target.
24 Dec '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: In this pre-holiday shortened session Oil, -1.2%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.7%. Despite the S&P's 51-point slide on Friday, per our prior note, the Index did rise at the open to as much as +37 points before tossing in the towel. The Gold Update contains a logarithmic visual of the current S&P correction targeting 2154 vs. major past corrections; the missive also restates our notion of Gold finishing the year inside of The Box (1240-1280): presently at 1266, Gold is the firmest of the components, +0.5%; session volatility is moderate. Merry Christmas!
21 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: With the Spoo -0.4%, the FinMedia is reporting that "U.S. stocks poised to drop..."; what they're missing is the Spoo's having risen some 0.8% post-S&P close, such that stocks ought rise were the S&P to open at present: c'est la vie. Still, save for the Bond, +0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, the weakest being Oil, -1.7%, followed by Silver, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR is 63 points, the most expansive since 21 Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation and Durable Orders, plus the final read for Q3 GDP.
20 Dec '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is the theme thus far as the EuroCurrencies and PMs have exceeded 100% of their EDTR tracings. Up the most is Silver, +1.1%, whilst down the most is Oil, -1.9%; the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have halted their ascent 'round the -40% level; that noted, Oil's low these last three sessions has been 45.91, 45.93 and to this point today 45.82, so some attempt for consolidation there. For the Spoo per Market Profiles, near-term trading support is 2506, above which price presently is 2510; still we look for the correction in due course to continue down into next year to 2154, (-27% from the 2940 high of 22 Sep). For the Econ Baro today comes Dec's Philly Fed Index and Nov's Leading Indicators.
19 Dec '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.4%, the Spoo, +1.2% and Copper, +1.0% are all looking firm ahead of the Fed whilst Gold and the Swiss Franc are marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. We saw Oil at one point yesterday down more than 6% (measured as always per the prior session's GLOBEX close); again per Market Values, price (in real-time) is some 9 points below the smooth valuation line; so swift was Oil's plunge that an MRT triggered at midnight yesterday per Oil's daily Parabolics swiftly was met from a 49.16 confirmation to a 48.16 Target equal to $1,000/cac as is presently listed on the Market Rhythms page. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 Current Account Deficit and Nov's Existing Home Sales; today's FedFunds hike to 2.50% is followed by a Powell press conference.
18 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: We've been wrong on our expectation for Oil: rather than run up into the mid-50s it instead has dropped down into the high 40s, presently at 48.66, -1.6% in an otherwise mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, led to the upside by the Euro, +0.4%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo's 29% EDTR tracing to robust given Copper's 119% EDTR tracing. Per Market Values, real-time readings find the Bond some 7 points "high", the Euro nearly 3 points "high", Gold 50 points "high", Oil 8 points "low" and the Spoo 106 points "low": those are whole points, not pips, so there is quite a bit of prices being far from their respective smooth valuation lines. Nov's Housing Starts/Building Permits are due for the Econ Baro.
17 Dec '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil continues its role as the BEGOS Markets leader 'round this time of the session, today being the firmest of the bunch, +1.2%; the ongoing climb of Oil's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends still maintains our notion for a price move up into the 55-57 area; as well, Oil's cac volume is moving from Jan into Feb. Copper is the weakest component, -0.6%; the Swiss Franc leads the EDTR tracings at 95%, volatility otherwise being light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites price having run out of puff, perhaps for the balance of the year toward finishing somewhere in The Box (1240-1280), but the S&P having run just -12% of our ultimately expected -27% correction. Within the week's expectation of the FedFunds rate rising to 2.50% on Wed come 16 metrics for the Econ Baro, starting today with Dec's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
14 Dec '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: For the 2nd straight session Oil is the BEGOS Market's downside leader, -1.2%: for all of its gyrations of late, price (52.24) remains above the recent low (49.41) of some 3 weeks ago, and moreover per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are again higher (up to -40% in real-time as the consistency of the 21-day linreg downtrend continues to be less so). Only the Bond is higher, +0.4%, and session volatility is mostly moderate. Cac volume for the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is moving from Dec into Mar. On deck for the Econ Baro are Nov's Retail Sales and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, plus Oct's Business Inventories.
13 Dec '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Oil the weakest component, -1.2%: still per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are higher yet; to the upside, Copper is firmest, +0.7%; again we've session volatility as light-to-moderate. At Market Values, "high" readings persist for both the Bond and Gold and a "low" reading for Oil. Per Market Rhythms, 'tis rare that a 30-min study gets noted, however for the present we've the Spoo's 30-min Parabolics qualifying for the list. The ECB/Draghi are expected to cease asset purchases; the Econ Baro's metric's today include Nov's Ex/Im pricing.
12 Dec '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.2%, is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by the Spoo, +1.0% and then less so by Silver, +0.5%; weakest of the bunch is the Swiss Franc, -0.3%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, albeit are still above their +80% level (+87%); still the yellow metal appears en route to making a 2nd consecutive "lower high" on its daily chart. Oil's Baby Blues by their real-time reading are accelerating their rise as the 21-day linreg downtrend loses its consistency. Of note today for the Econ Baro is Nov's CPI.
11 Dec '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are up, Oil being the leader, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +1.0%; then come Silver and the Spoo, both +0.9%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are still rising given price's continuing to consolidate in the low 50s: again we're seeking a pop to the 55-57 zone, supported in part by OPEC's lean to tightening next year. The Bond's Baby Blues are looking toppy and those for Gold are stretching up (in real-time) to +88%. 13 metrics due this week for the Econ Baro start today with Nov's PPI.
10 Dec '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The week starts mildly up for the Bond and EuroCurrencies, and more notably down with the metals, Oil and Spoo, led by Silver, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal (1251) having for the present secured itself in The Box (1240-1280), wherein price has traded during some 27% of the past 5 years. Oil is -0.5%, its "Baby Blues" nonetheless furthering their rise per Market Trends; as well, Oil's EDTR of 2.65 is its highest reading in a least a year, ('twas 1.19 at this time a year ago when price was 56 vs. 52 today). At Market Values, Oil appears as "low" by some 8 points and both the Bond and Gold as "high" respectively by 8 and 59 points.
07 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate amongst the BEGOS Markets with a bevy of incoming Econ Data in the balance, highlighted by the StateSide jobs numbers. All of the components are "unch" to higher, save for the Spoo, -0.7%; firmest is Copper, +0.5%; rangiest is the Bond with an EDTR tracing of 66%. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their climbout from the floor. At Market Profiles, the Spoo (presently 2678) shows dominant support at 2666, then less so at 2643, with resistors at 2695, 2702, and then more dominantly so at 2379; the Spoo's EDTR is 51 points and rising. Oil, presently 51.86, is between support at 51.30-51.10 and resistance at 53.00-53.20.
06 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil again is leading the pack, but this time to the downside, -2.5%, followed by Copper, -2.0%, and then the Spoo, -1.5%: the S&P (at present) would open 'round the mid-2600s leaving still quite a way down toward our correction call to 2154, regardless of when that ultimately comes to pass. Session volatility ranges from light for the Euro to robust for the 3 noted leading losers, of which the Spoo has the widest EDTR tracing at 136%. Oil's dropping is not enough to stem the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends continuing their rising, in real-time having surpassed above the -80% level to -78%: still, this is 2nd day of the OPEC meeting. The busy stream of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro includes Nov's ISM(Svc) Index, along with Oct's Factory Orders and Trade Deficit.
05 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets upside leader for the 3rd consecutive day at this time, presently +0.9%; 2nd firmest is the Spoo (+0.5%) which will close its session at 06:30 PT in observance of GHWB's passing; for reason of same, the Bond is closed for its entire session; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are running their normal course, the weakest of the bunch being Silver, -0.4%. Oil's "Baby Blues" are now up to the -83% level, ascending at a rate which would see them pass above the -80% level into the Thu session, suggestive of still higher prices (note the 55-57 comment from yesterday): that said, we're mindful of OPEC's 2-day meeting beginning tomorrow in Vienna; by Market Values, Oil still shows well "low" by some 8 points.
04 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo is lower, -0.3%, the other 7 BEGOS Markets working higher, led again by Oil, +1.6% and then Silver, +1.2%. Gold has scampered up into (per The Gold Update) "the the safety and serenity of The Box" which is the 1240-1280 zone. Session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Bond's MRT of 138^01 is nixed as the 12-hr. MACD has swung up to positive; we're nixing as well the Euro's MRT of 1.14910 (despite price rising) as its 12-hr. MACD has taken on a flat-lined neutral stance. As anticipated, per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have begun bending up, in real-time at the -87% level: Oil's "price bunching" in its recent decline ranged in the 55-57 area were one looking for a near-term upside target, (last 53.93).
03 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil is the big BEGOS Markets mover to start the week, +4.4%: The Gold Update notes watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends to eventually pass above their -80% axis: in real-time they are up to the -93% level, their highest is at least a month. 2nd-firmest are Silver and Copper, both +1.5%, followed by the Spoo, +1.2%; weakest is the Bond, -0.4%, its 12-hr. MACD continuing its negative stance thus keeping intact the MRT of 138^01; volatility is moderate, albeit Gold has traced 103% of its EDTR. Nov's ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending start a busy week of 18 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro.
30 Nov '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Silver's 12-hr. MACD returned to positive, in turn nixing our 14.090 MRT; the same study for the Bond remains negative for its 138^01 MRT; again per the same study we've an upside MRT for the Euro (from 1.14030) of 1.14910 ($1,100/cac). Still, the Bond is up this session, +0.2%, whilst the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, led by Oil, -1.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Values, we've extremes of Oil being 13 points "low" and the Bond 5 points "high". The Spoo at present is clinging to major Market Profile support at 2732. The Econ Baro closes out Nov with the Chicago PMI.
29 Nov '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The revised open MRTs due to cac rollovers are for the Bond 138^01 basis Mar and for Silver 14.090 also basis Mar; following Powell's remarks yesterday, the 12-hr. MACDs have become less supportive of these two MRTs, that study in both cases having become less negative, albeit Silver is the weakest BEGOS Market, -0.3% in this session; the Bond is +0.5%, and firmest is Oil, + 1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Bond's EDTR tracing of 148%; Gold's cac volume is moving from Dec into Feb. Data for the Econ Baro today includes Oct's Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Prices and Pending Home Sales.
28 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our 2 MRTs for the Bond and Silver remain intact per their negative 12-hr. MACD stances: both markets' cac volumes are still lingering in Dec but ought be rolled into Mar by tomorrow; per yesterday's note, Silver's Mar cac MRT should be about 0.14 points higher (than 13.940) and that for the Bond's Mar cac about 0^20 points lower (than 138^21) depending upon pricing once volume firmly is in each new cac. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, save for Copper, +0.7%: the red metal's cac volume is moving today from Dec to Mar. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Fed Chairman Powell's Econ Club of NY speech on deck as well as for the Econ Baro the second peek at Q3 GDP and Oct's New Home Sales.
27 Nov '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by Silver, +0.5%, and on the downside by Copper, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Coming off of a successful Long MRT for the Bond, we've now a Short one, the 12-hr. MACD confirming a negative crossover from 139^25, (presently 139^29) for an MRT at 138^21 basis Dec; the identical study has confirmed for Silver from 14.180 (presently 14.255) for an MRT of 13.940 basis Dec: note that cac volume on both contracts shall roll into Mar starting tomorrow for which we'll update the MRTs. Nov's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Friday's session saw the Bond achieve our MRT of 140^10; today, (save for the Bond being -0.1%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, led by Oil, +1.4% and then the Spoo, +1.2%; volatility is moderate. Still, at Market Trends, only the Bond and the Swiss Franc are in 21-day linreg uptrends: notably, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to flat-line across the floor, and per Market Values, price (in real-time) is nearly 15 points "low"; the Bond's reading shows as 5 points "high". Q3 Earnings Season has concluded with 85% (352) of the S&P 500's 414 reporting entities having improved their bottom lines from the like period a year ago, again not unexpected given the corporate tax rate cut; overall, of 2009 companies reporting, 69% showed improvement.
23 Nov '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues with Oil, -4.3%, trading down to its lowest level (51.73) since 24 October 2017; moreover, save for the Bond, +0.2%, all of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, the 2nd-weakest being Silver, -1.9%; session volatility combining the 2 days ranges from light for the Spoo (with just a 24% tracing of its EDTR) to robust for Silver's 112% tracing. The Bond's high thus far is 140^06, just 4 pips from the 140^10 MRT, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator becoming more positive. The Econ Baro's week is complete; Q3 Earnings Season concludes today; the BEGOS Markets all have early closures at either 10:15 or 10:45 Pacific Time.
22 Nov '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Thanksgiving-into-Friday session finds Oil the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, -0.7%, followed by the Spoo, -0.2%; to the upside, Gold and the Euro are the firmest, both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is some 12 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, whereas the Bond is better than 5 points "high": both readings are extreme, albeit the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator still supports a move to our 140^10 MRT, (price as noted coming yesterday within a pip at 140^09 and the high thus far this session being 140^01). Far more daunting are the 3 periods of measure on the S&P's Moneyflow page suggesting that the Index ought be as much as 500 points lower than the present 2649 level, which is very coincident with our full 27% correction expectation down to S&P 2154.
21 Nov '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Bond yesterday came within 1 pip (140^09) of our 140^10 MRT: the 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains well-positive in support of that target. Oil is recovering a bit, +2.1% and the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, following yesterday's high-low decline of 8.1% (historically there've been intra-day declines approaching double that amount). Firmer as well are Silver and the Spoo, both +0.8%. Volatility is moderate. Given the StateSide holiday, GLOBEX trading has a 5-hour halt tomorrow (from 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time) plus early closes Friday (10:15-10:45 Pacific Time). The Econ Baro looks for a bevy of data today, including Oct's Durable Orders, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales. Q3 Earnings Season wraps up this Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to All!
20 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo and Oil are the BEGOS Markets weak links, respectively -0.8% and -0.4%; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way, albeit Silver just hit a session high as we type, +0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is still positive in support of the 140^10 MRT. Per our 16 Nov. note, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" via Market Trends have since been on the upside move. As noted in The Gold Update, price's movement continues as comparably docile given other components alacrity: the yellow metal (currently 1226) seems entrapped betwixt the base of The Box (1240-1280) and the rising weekly parabolic Long trend flip price of 1196. Oct's Housing Starts/Building Permits come into the Econ Baro.
19 Nov '18, 04:08 Pacific Time: Weakest of the BEGOS Markets to start the week is Oil, -0.6%: still, at 56.64, price is off the recent low of 54.90 following the daily Moneyflow having reached all the way down to 0; however, at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have yet to get up off of the floor, albeit at Market Values, price (in real-time) is better than 11 points "low". To the upside the Swiss Franc leads, +0.4%. Session volatility is mostly light, the exceptions being the Franc and Bond having traded at least 80% of their EDTRs; the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive toward maintaining our MRT of 140^10. Nov's NAHB Housing Market Index comes due for the Baro; Q3 Earnings Season concludes this week.
16 Nov '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: Following Oil's daily Moneyflow having hit rock-bottom 0 as noted, price is now gaining for the 3rd straight session, +1.3% and the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo, -0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond is rising for the 6th day in-a-row, our MRT of 140^10 still in place given the positive 12-hr. Price Oscillator. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are just beginning to curl up, albeit they are still below the -80% level. The Econ Baro rounds out its week with Oct's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
15 Nov '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: Again we look to Oil as its daily Moneyflow (scale 100-0) is down to 0, a very rare event and a level from which an in depth study ought show price rebounds, as 'tis a bit this session, +0.4%; cac volume is moving from Dec into Jan, (with some 20¢ of premium). The firmest BEGOS Market is Copper, +1.5%; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way. Volatility is mostly moderate, although the Euro given the UK Brexit minister's resigning has traced 101% of its EDTR. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is rising in support of our 140^10 MRT. Incoming data for the Econ Baro includes Nov's NY State Empire Index and Philly Fed Index, Oct's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and Sep's Business Inventories.
14 Nov '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil from yesterday into today is looking to survive structural support 'round 55; 'tis at present 55.75, +0.9%, the BEGOS Markets best gainer, followed by Copper, +0.4%; weakest of the bunch are the Swiss Franc and Silver, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed the crossing to Long (yesterday at 12:00 Pacific Time) from 138^19 (now 138^24) which per the Market Rhythms list gives us an MRT of $1,700/cac higher (+1^23) at 140^10. Brexit is on today's UK Cabinet agenda. And following a quiet start to the week, the Econ Baro receives a dozen metrics into week's end, today featuring Oct's CPI.
13 Nov '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oh wow Oil: at one point yesterday 'twas +2.4% from Friday's settle, only to then plunge -4.2% intra-day; for this session 'tis presently 58.73, -0.2%, as is Gold, both the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; firmest is Copper, +1.6%: the red metal has traced 143% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise moderate. Several components are triggering signals for MRTs, none of which we favour (Spoo daily Moneyflow Long, Copper daily Parabolics Short, Gold daily Price Oscillator Short); one which we are eying is the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator crossing to Long, but not as yet confirmed.
12 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets' big mover to start the week, its opening trade at 60.70 producing an up gap of 83¢, to then move higher still to 61.28; at present price is 60.63, +1.3%. Weakest is the Euro, -0.6% which is sporting an EDTR tracing of 118%. Session volatility looks to be moderate-to-robust. StateSide, the physical Bond floor is closed for Veterans Day how GLOBEX is trading its normal 23-hour daily cycle. Even with Oil's bounce, by our Market Values page price is some 10 points "low", whilst at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" continue their floor crawl; thus should a furthering Oil rally ensue given these oversold measures, technically we see room for a move higher into structural resistance in the upper 65s; Oil's recent downtrend low from Friday is 59.26.
09 Nov '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, and Copper, -1.2%, are leading most of the BEGOS Markets lower: only the Bond, +0.4%, is in the black: volatility is moderate. The FinMedia are pointing to Oil's current skid (-12% from a month ago) as its "worst decline ever", which without our specifically assessing the data is likely an exaggeration; currently 59.81, we see structural support in the 55s from Jan a year ago. The PMs continue to see their "Baby Blues" as displayed at Market Trends working lower such as to pass (in real-time) below their 0% axes, suggestive of still lower levels. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey, Oct's PPI and Sep's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Nov '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: At this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the black; now just 2 are, led by Oil, +0.4% and the Bond, +0.2%; weakest is Copper, -0.9%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Spoo's low-high range yesterday was 73 points (2.7%) as compared to post-election day two years ago which was 138 points (6.8%), the market this year not being surprised as noted. Recall in late Oct the Spoo by our Market Values being some 200 points "low": that has now been recaptured in full; but by the Moneyflow page (not to mention the "live" P/E of 46.3x), the S&P 500 remains treacherously overvalued (understatement). Also at Market Values, Oil appears as nearly 10 points "low" and Gold nearly 50 points "high": the present edition of The Gold Update offers a sub-1200 move scenario post-election, and at Market Trends, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall.
07 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly robust but far less so than what we witnessed through the night of the election two years ago as this time 'round, the high-level view shows the results coming in as projected/expected. Still, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all have traced well-beyond 100% of their EDTRs and all 8 components are higher at the expense of the Dollar; leading the pack is Oil, +1.9%, followed by Gold and Silver both +1.0%, and then the Spoo, +0.9%. Late in the session Sep's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro and the FOMC's 2-day meeting begins.
06 Nov '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Of top import is the volatility for the 07 Nov session from its 15:00 PT opening this afternoon concurrent with the closing of some StateSide election polls: recall in 2016 Gold tracing 5 times its EDTR and the Spoo 7 times same; this time 'round toward that pace, an overnight "lock limit" (5% up or down) would be enforced. On verra. For the present session, similar to yesterday volatility mostly is light with nothing due for the Econ Baro and the elections in the balance. Both Gold and Silver lead to the upside at +0.3%, whilst weakest is the Spoo, -0.3%. Be mindful of tonight's thin trading conditions and swift market speed.
05 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: A measure of the Spoo this session has it within a narrower range than we've seen to this point in at least the prior 4 sessions; TradeTalk with China aside, the markets may be going into the "calm before the storm" of the Tue/Wed election session upon which we elaborate in The Gold Update; especially take note of "The S&P 500 --Moneyflow" under our Contact Links (at left). Save for Copper which is -1.4% and has traced 88% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets are otherwise narrowly mixed and volatility is light. The Spoo's daily MACD confirmed a Long signal effective this session's open, as did Copper's daily Parabolics as well to Long: however with the elections looming, the fundamental risk here in shooting for their MRTs may well be worth avoiding. Oct's ISM(Svc) is due for the Econ Baro.
02 Nov '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Time was a few years back that Apple seemed to be the entire S&P as we'd depicted in a edition of The Gold Update; today with AAPL -7% pre-open, the Spoo nonetheless is +0.9%, 2nd only to Copper's being +2.0%, as like yesterday we've all the BEGOS Markets higher except for the Bond (-0.3%). Still, ahead of what ought start as a fourth day of gains for the S&P, per the Moneyflow page, the Index "ought be" 200-300 points lower across the three time-frame measures. And for a 2nd straight day the PMs are rising: StateSide pre-election (06 Nov) jitters? Oct's payroll data comes into the Econ Baro as does Sep's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is lower, -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets all presently posting gains with Sister Silver leading the way, +1.2%, followed by Gold, +0.7%; the Spoo, which we calculate as having been negatively correlated with Gold over the past 28 trading days, also is up, +0.6%. Volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 29% EDTR tracing, to robust for the PMs and EuroCurrencies, their EDTR tracing exceeding 100%: there is positive Brexit buzz on UK banks being able to potentially operate in the EU. 'Tis a big day of incoming data for the Econ Baro, including Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Oct's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, and Sep's Construction Spending.
31 Oct '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: As noted, Copper's 6-hr. Parabolics did see price reach down to 2.6755, and then some; this session, the red metal is otherwise quiet. The Spoo leads to the upside, +0.6%, but save for Oil (+0.1%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver, -0.9%. To this point of the session, the Spoo's ranginess has narrowed from that of recent days, so trading may appear a bit tighter as the day unfolds, suggesting the present EDTR of 63 points shan't nearly be traced. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 43.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 85.1x. ADP's Oct jobs data comes into the Econ Baro as does Q3's Employment Cost Index.
30 Oct '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: The S&P swung 103 points yesterday from high-to-low, the EDTR now up to 62 points; only the Spoo is positive, +0.5% in this session for which overall volatility is moderate. Weakest of the bunch is Gold, -0.7%: its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have begun rolling over, crossing below their +80% axis; this last occurred on 01 Feb, from which price sunk 48 points, a repeat of which would obviously put price back down into the 1100s. Copper yesterday reached its MRT of 2.7045 (see 26 Oct); further, the red metal's 6-hr. Parabolics are suggestive of price reaching lower to 2.6755. Oct's Consumer Confidence comes into the Econ Baro.
29 Oct '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: The Spoo starts the week as the BEGOS Markets upside leader, +1.1%, followed at a distance by Copper, +0.5%; the balance of the bunch all are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.5% followed by Gold, -0.3%; per The Gold Update, Gold is getting more FinMedia notice, but without any material progress for price. Session volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, there are 3 notable extreme readings: in real-time, Gold shows as 43 points "high", Oil as 4 points "low" and the Spoo as 175 points "low"; still, the Moneyflow page suggests more S&P fallout lies ahead. A busy week for the Econ Baro kicks off with the Fed's favoured Core PCE reading for September, along with Personal Income/Spending.
26 Oct '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Tech wreck earnings are pulling the Spoo back down by -0.9% with Copper the weakest BEGOS Markets performer, -1.4%; we've an MRT nearly already reached on the red metal as measured from this session's opening level of 2.7525 (now 2.7190) for 2.7045 toward meeting the $1,200/cac target as currently listed on the Market Rhythms page. The Bond, +0.4%, is the firmest of the components, followed by the PMs; session volatility is moderate; the Spoo's EDTR is 55 points. The highlight of the session is Q3 GDP, for which some slowing from Q2's +4.2% pace is expected, certainly so per the declining Econ Baro.
25 Oct '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil again is the upside leader, similarly up 1.0% was 'twas 'round this point yesterday; both the Bond and Swiss Franc are the weak links at -0.2%; volatility is moderate; Gold is "unch'", but playing catch-up is Silver, +0.5%, their ratio at 83.7x. Despite the Spoo's recent sliding, ('tis +0.4% in this session), the "live" P/E remains a dauntingly high 45.1x, and from the Moneyflow page, all three duration measures suggest still lower levels ahead; however per Market Values, the Spoo appears 200 points "low" and "low" as well per Market Magnets by some 70 points. Sep's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales are due for the Econ Baro.
24 Oct '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's 0.5% drop in the S&P, the Spoo at present is -0.6%, as is the Euro; the upside leader is Oil, +1.0%, whilst Gold is "unch" in continuing to cling to the 1230 area; session volatility ranges from light for the PMs to robust for the Euro, the latter's EDTR tracing at 108%. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" real-time reading shows them with an up-kink for the first time in some 2 weeks, without the dots having crossed sub-0%: again by historical Gold/Silver ratio measuring, Silver remains well "low" (and Gold not too "high" given its absurd under-valuation to currency debasement). Today (not yesterday as we'd erroneously stated) brings Sep's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Oct '18, 03:59 Central Euro Time: Very early on the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way with one exception: the Spoo is -0.5%, followed by Oil, -0.3%; volatility is expectedly light to this point, albeit the Spoo has already traced 41% of its EDTR, which now is up to 46 points per session; per Market Values, the Spoo is some 140 points "low", but both the monthly and quarterly Moneyflow measures on the S&P are suggestive of still lower levels; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are just now reaching down to their -80% level.
22 Oct '18, 09:20 Central Euro Time: On the heels of China's robust start to the week, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led (not surprisingly) by Copper, +1.2%, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 72%; only the Bond and Gold are flat to mildly lower; volatility is trending toward moderate, the Spoo's EDTR tracing already up to 62%. The Gold Update points to the safe haven/technical bid supporting the yellow metal, which month-over-month is the only net positive performer (+2%) of the 5 primary BEGOS components. 'Tis a light load of incoming data for the Econ Baro this week, the exception being Friday's first peek at Q3 GDP which is"expected" to have slowed by nearly 1%.
19 Oct '18, 09:40 Central Euro Time: The metals are bracketing the BEGOS Markets' moves early on with Copper up the most at +0.5% and Gold down the most at -0.2%; light volatility ought push to at least moderate by mid-session. From Market Trends, the respective "Baby Blues" for Oil, Copper, Silver and the Spoo are all falling; those for Gold continue to rise, albeit the 1230s for the yellow metal are being resistive; moreover, there appears structural resistance up to the 1245 level. By Market Magnets, Gold shows as 15 points "high" and Oil as better than 3 points "low". Sep's Existing Home Sales conclude the week for the Econ Baro
18 Oct '18, 11:47 Central Euro Time: Oil's cac volume is moving from Nov into Dec, for which there is very little premium; however, -1.4%, Oil as well as Copper are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower save for mild gains in the EuroCurrencies and Gold. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are only just now crossing their 0% access, suggestive of further room to fall: currently trading in the 69s, the overall swath from 70-to-67 appears as structural support, whilst at Market Magnets price is nearly 3 full points "low". The Econ Baro is set to receive Oct's Philly Fed Index and Sep's lagging read on Leading Indicators, for which the Baro implies may miss the +0.5% monthly grow consensus expectation.
17 Oct '18, 09:59 Central Euro Time: Copper, -0.6%, thus far is the weakest BEGOS Market in an otherwise mixed session; volatility is light but ought grow toward moderate; at Market Ranges, Gold, Oil and the Spoo have all notably increased their EDTRs of late. Despite yesterday's run-up in the S&P, it remains the case that the Spoo measures as 100 points "low" per Market Values, but the S&P remains "high" by all three time frames on its Moneyflow page, and per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are working lower still. Through yesterday's S&P rise, Gold's being buoyant is a sign of resilience; also as noted, an up kink in the "Baby Blues" for the Swiss Franc suggests higher levels near-term. Sep's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro today, plus due are the 26 Sep FOMC Minutes.
16 Oct '18, 10:35 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by the Spoo, +0.5%, and on the downside by Oil, -0.8%; the latter's "Baby Blues" (per Market trends) peaked 7 sessions ago with price in the 74 handle: 'tis now in the 71s. Overall session volatility is light-to-moderate. In real-time, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are rising for the 1st time in better than 3 weeks: should this be a change in trend, with price currently 1.0178, there appears structural room to run up toward to 1.3070 level. Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization and Oct's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Oct '18, 08:06 Central Euro Time: The Spoo, -0.6%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets in kicking off the week, The Gold Update suggestive of Gold getting a grip with the outlook being for the S&P to further dip; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fall, now in real-time down to -50%, a level not seen since 09 July; the Spoo's somewhat swift drop has price, per Market Values, some 150 points "low": however by the Moneyflow page, the suggestion is for further fallout. Firmest of the bunch is Oil, +0.5%, followed by Gold, +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oct's NY Empire State Index, Sep's Retail Sales and Aug's Business Inventories all start a busy week for the Econ Baro.
12 Oct '18, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The S&P in continuing its correction yesterday to as low as 2711 thus far marks a 7.8% pullback; as noted, 10% = 2646 and the critical hold area essentially is the 2500s. Friday's session to this point is finding some firmness, with both the Spoo and Oil +1.0%, led further by Copper, +1.4%; Gold is the weak component, -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate with the Spoo leading the EDTR tracings at 99%; mind the Market Ranges page as obviously some EDTRs are working higher, (the Spoo for example having already hit its "high if an up day" guesstimate per the BEGOS page for the S&P 500). Sep's Ex/Im pricing and Oct's UofM Sentiment Survey come due for the Econ Baro.
11 Oct '18, 09:01 Central Euro Time: The Spoo (2764) is working lower following yesterday's 3.3% drop in the S&P itself; there is structural support throughout the 2500s, however a break below S&P 2532 would be an opportunity for selling to accelerate; from the all-time high of 2940 (22 Sep) the 5% correction was passed by yesterday at 2793, the 10% correction would arrive at 2646, and "our" full (once 25% now 27%) correction remains targeted for S&P 2154. The balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets have not been equally responsive to the Spoo's move, although overall volatility is moderate and -- specific to the Spoo -- it has already traded 110% of this session's EDTR. The Econ Baro awaits Sep's CPI.
10 Oct '18, 08:48 Central Euro Time: Similar to this point yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed; no one component is (as present) changed by more than 0.2% either way and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Silver and Oil are curling lower from high levels; at Market Values, Oil appears a full 5 points "high" and the Bond a full 5 points "low"; at Market Ranges, the EDTRs for both the Bond and the Spoo are increasing and are higher than they were from a week ago; coming into the Econ Baro today are Sep's PPI and Aug's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Oct '18, 08:19 Central Euro Time: Mildly mixed are the BEGOS Markets early in the Tues session with Oil up the most at +0.5% and each of the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all -0.1%; volatility to this point is light but ought move on to at least moderate as the session unfolds. With much FinMedia ado about Gold having likely put in its low for the year (1167 on 16 Aug), as is the market's contrarian wont, price traded yesterday to as low as 1186; moreover per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" reading in real-time have lurched lower, suggestive of testing that low, albeit the Market Profile is indicative of support in the 1190-1188 zone, (current = 1194).
08 Oct '18, 08:02 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper's starting the week +0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets presently are all in the red, the most so being Silver, -1.2%, followed by Oil, -0.7%. The Gold Update notes how Silver month-over-month had climbed a net 3.5%, (over which stint Gold netted no change); still, the Gold/Silver ratio remains above the 80x level (82.8x "live" reading). As for Oil, by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are just starting to roll over from above their +80% zone: with price currently 73.82, initial Market Profile support shows at 73.40, then dominantly so at 72.30. Meanwhile the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their move lower.
05 Oct '18, 07:40 Central Euro Time: Only Oil and the Spoo are thus far higher, the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the red, but just mildly so, the weakest component being Copper, -0.3%; volatility is light to this point, but we expect it will pick up, especially given yesterday's drop in the Spoo, its net 16-point pull-back being the most since 30 August; the down day was also enough to bring price just about in line with the Market Values smooth valuation line; but for the Bond, price is now more than 6 points below its valuation measure. Sep's Payrolls data and Aug's Trade Deficit come due for the Econ Baro.
04 Oct '18, 06:34 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets early on are mixed with volatility running at a light-to-moderate pace. To the upside, the leader is Copper, +0.3%, whilst the weak link is the Bond, -0.4%, despite our noting yesterday its low Market Values stance and rising "Baby Blues", the latter in real-time continuing to so do; still, price is down to its lowest level since September 2014; the Bond is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 70%. The Dollar is poised to gain for the 7th consecutive session. Due for the Econ Baro today is Aug's Factory Orders.
03 Oct '18, 08:37 Central Euro Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, both of which are off but -0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are up, led by Copper, +0.3%, and then the Euro, Silver and Oil, all +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are more notably curling up from the floor, not so much much as price is rising, but rather consolidating: with price presently 140 ^04, the Bond's Market Profile shows a block of resistance spanning up to 140^16; yet at Market Values, price shows as nearly 5 full points below the smooth valuation line. Sep's ADP Employment Change and ISM(Svc) highlight the Econ Baro's incoming metrics.
02 Oct '18, 08:37 Central Euro Time: 'Tis worth nothing the divergence between the buoyant -- albeit somewhat struggling -- S&P, and the falling Econ Baro, for which Sep's Vehicle Sales are to arrive during today's session. There's firmness in the PMs, led by Silver, +0.6%, whilst the Euro is off the most at -0.4% and is also the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with an 55% EDTR tracing; similar to yesterday, volatility which to this point is light ought become moderate as the day unfolds. At Market Values, Oil is reading nearly 7 points "high", as extreme a reading as recorded in better than a year; presently trading at 75.85, Oil's Market Profile suggests support at 74.70, then at 73.40; 72.30 is the most heavily-traded handle these past two weeks.
01 Oct '18, 06:56 Central Euro Time: Early on, the Spoo is the new week's upside leader at +0.5% as traders embrace a new "USMC" version of NAFTA; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver and Copper, both -0.4%; session volatility is light, yet we 'spect 'twill skew toward moderate as the session unfolds. The Gold Update -- in its usual emphasis of the yellow metal being vastly undervalued but nonetheless precariously poised toward a weekly parabolic trend flip back to Short -- cites high-level analysts warning of the stock market's "kool-aid" levels. Sep's ISM(Mfg) and Aug's Construction Spending kick off the Econ Baro's week.
28 Sep '18, 13:02 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Silver, +0.5%, as the upside leader, but the Euro on the opposite end, down by same; the Euro is also the rangiest of the bunch with an 82% EDTR tracing. 2nd-weakest is the Spoo, -0.3%; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Bond's being +0.2% is helping the "Baby Blues" to curl a bit higher; however, those for the Swiss Franc are beginning to accelerate lower; thus by "conventional wisdom", various markets' relationships are seemingly out-of-sync. Due for the Econ Baro today are Aug's Core PCE along with Personal Income and Spending.
27 Sep '18, 14:28 Central Euro Time: With the no-surprise FedFunds hike and outlook behind us, the BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper, -1.0%; leading to the upside is Oil, +0.4%, and rangiest is the Swiss Franc with an EDTR tracing of 117%; otherwise, session volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends the Bond's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl up from the floor, albeit they're still below the -80% level. Per Market Profiles, the Spoo penetrated the 2912 supporter earlier in the session, only to now sit just above it at 2914. Imminently due for the Econ Baro are Aug's Durable Goods and the final read in Q3 GDP, followed later by Aug's Pending Home Sales.
26 Sep '18, 12:10 Central Euro Time: Ahead of the Fed's 0.25% rate hike at 11:00 Pacific/14:00 Eastern/20:00 CET we've the BEGOS Markets not surprisingly little changed in either direction and volatility is light. Post-Fed market trading reactions in recent years have been far more muted than in those of decades past, and since the Fed shall give the rate hike expected, we expect nothing different this time 'round; 'course, there is a follow-up press conference to nudge things about a bit. Prior to the announcement, the Econ Baro looks for an increase in Aug's New Home Sales.
25 Sep '18, 14:09 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag, led on the upside by Silver, +0.4%, and on the downside by the Bond, -0.2%; volatility is again moderate. At Market Values we show the Bond as being a full 5 points "too low", whilst despite the Spoo putting in a down day yesterday, 'tis showing in real-time as a full 50 points "too high" (and the "live" P/E is 51.6x); further per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to be unsupportive of that component's buoyancy of now nearly three weeks. The Econ Baro receives Sep's Consumer Confidence.
24 Sep '18, 12:20 Central Euro Time: Oil, +1.9%, is the BEGOS Markets leader in starting the new week; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; Oil is also the rangiest component with an 80% EDTR tracing, the volatility for the balance of the bunch also essentially moderate. The Spoo has not charted beneath its smooth valuation line since 05 July and is at present per Market Values 45 points "high" in real-time. The Gold Update characterizes price as being both downside protected and upside suppressed such as to sport a narrow weekly trading range (less than 20 points for last week) from which volatility tends to pick up: given the fresh new parabolic weekly Long trend is but two weeks in duration, we'd argue time is on Gold's side to break out higher, but at this instant 'tis literally "unch" as the week begins.
21 Sep '18, 15:06 Central Euro Time: Our MRT for the Spoo of 2860.75 has evaporated, its daily MACD confirming back to positive and the SPX itself moving up into uncharted territory and in turn sending our "live" P/E of the S&P to the ridiculous extreme of 52.1x. Copper leads the session to the upside, +1.1%, followed by Oil, +0.8%: these two BEGOS Markets components had been in negative correlation, but of late have been coming 'round to that which is positive. The Spoo is but +0.1% and the balance of the bunch are lower. No data is due for the Econ Baro, however next week brings what is expected to be another 0.25% FedFunds hike.
20 Sep '18, 12:07 Central Euro Time: Little changed are the BEGOS Markets with a good dose of incoming Econ Data waiting in the wings for the Econ Baro, including Sep's Philly Fed Index plus Aug's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, the latter for which the Baro suggests ought be muted at best. Rangiest of the components thus far is Silver with a 76% EDTR tracing; the balance of the bunch show light-to-moderate volatility. Ever so barely negative remains the daily MACD for the Spoo, that study thus still barely supportive of the 2860.75 MRT, and per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are a skosh lower.
19 Sep '18, 18:27 Central Euro Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Oil, +1.3%, and the volatility leader being the Swiss Franc with an EDTR tracing of 125%, followed closely by the Bond at 122%. Volatility is otherwise moderate, the precious metals also getting a bid today. The Spoo's daily MACD is now just barely negative with the MRT of 2860.75 facing the threat of becoming nixed upon the signal confirming its swing to positive prior to the MRT being reached. Aug's Housing Starts improved, but its Building Permits weakened.
18 Sep '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil's cac volume has rolled from Oct into Nov; both Oil and Copper are +1.7%, the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the red metal is vibrant with an EDTR tracing of 192%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate; the weak link is the Bond, -0.2%. The Spoo, albeit +0.2%, still has lacked the necessary upside to bring the daily MACD back to positive; thus the 2860.75 MRT remains in force; in real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall, now at +36% their lowest reading in better than 3 weeks. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's NAHB Housing Index.
17 Sep '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: With cac volume on the Spoo having rolled from Sep to Dec, we're revising up by 5 points of new premium our MRT per the negative daily MACD to 2860.75. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are lower still, and it and the Bond are the only 2 BEGOS Markets in the red to start the week. Firmest is Silver, +0.9%: The Gold Update depicts the extremely high Gold/Silver ratio at 85.1x; the white is picking up more ground today than is the yellow metal, +0.2%; as well, Silver is the rangiest of the BEGOS bunch with an EDTR tracing of 66%; overall session volatility is mostly moderate. Sep's NY State Empire Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
14 Sep '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Spoo's daily MACD is still negative, but becoming less so: a firm up session could lead to nixing our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep) upon confirming the study flipping to positive; cac volume is moving from Sep to Dec as it also is for the FX futs. Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs, Gold and Silver both being +0.4%; only the Bond is lower, -0.2%; Copper is rangiest with a 64% EDTR tracing and session volatility is mostly moderate. A cavalcade of 8 EconData metrics are set to hit the Econ Baro as the session unfolds, including Aug's Retail Sales.
13 Sep '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: Copper again is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, +0.6%; weakest is Oil, -1.2%, which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 84%. The other components are mildly changed either way, and volatility otherwise is mostly light as 'twas yesterday. The Spoo's daily MACD continues its negative journey toward keeping our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep) intact; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall and price remains above the Market Values smooth valuation line. The ECB delivers a policy statement followed by a Draghi press conference. Stateside, the CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Sep '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, which is +0.6% with a robust EDTR tracing of 113%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light; looming late in the session is the Fed's Tan Tome for Aug. Despite the Spoo having moved up yesterday, the daily MACD remains negative in maintaining our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep); at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are in real-time more notably beginning to break down without having achieved +80% on their upside run; the real-time Market Values reading shows the Spoo some 36 points above its smooth valuation line. Aug's PPI works into the Econ Baro.
11 Sep '18, 17:21 Pacific Time: Web pages have since been updated for trade date 11 Sep '18. Thank you for your patience. Our web pages are not being updated for this trade date due to intermittencies in the feed from the data provider.
11 Sep '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Another mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets, with Oil again leading to the upside, +0.4%, the weakest component this time being Silver, -0.4%; Gold again finds itself sub-1200; Copper, which presently is "unch" is nonetheless the rangiest of the bunch with an 87% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's daily MACD has furthered its negativity, our MRT remaining intact for 2855.75: given the cac volume rolling into Dec toward week's end, we'd add 4 point to that Target should it not first be reached (or nixed) before the volume roll. Jul's Wholesale Inventories come into the Econ Baro today.
10 Sep '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil, +0.5%, and the Spoo +0.4%, are the BEGOS Markets' upside leaders in starting the week. Down the most is the Swiss Franc, -0.5%, which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 101%; session volatility otherwise is moderate. The Spoo's being higher is not enough to put off the MRT of 2855.75 as the daily MACD has furthered its negativity; per Market Values, the Spoo's real-time reading shows as some 43 points above its smooth valuation line; presently 2886, the Spoo's Market Profile shows trading resistors at 2889 and then 2897. Jul Consumer Credit comes due late in the session.
07 Sep '18, 04:14 Pacific Time: That which we at present see may well be moot with Aug's Payrolls data, TariffTalk and FedSpeak in the session's balance. The PMs, which seem to regularly give back gains are again the BEGOS Markets firmest components, Silver +0.3% followed by Gold +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are "unch" to lower, Copper being the weakest at -0.2%. The Spoo's daily MACD confirmed its negative cross: as measured from this session's opening of 2877.75, we've an MRT of 22 points lower to 2855.75 ($1,100/cac); as well, our "live" p/e of the S&P 500 is 50.6x and per Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is some 36 points above its smooth valuation line.
06 Sep '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo's daily MACD provisionally has crossed to negative: we'll see if that confirms for an MRT at session's end. The metals are the BEGOS Markets leaders to the upside, led by Copper +1.5%, Gold +0.8% and Silver +0.6%; the red metal is also the rangiest component, tracing 111% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is again mostly moderate. At Market Profiles, the Bond is clinging to major 10-day trading support at 143^06, helped by the firmer metals and weaker Spoo. 'Tis a busy day of incoming EconData for the Econ Baro, including Aug's ADP and ISM(Svc) numbers, Jul's Factory Orders, and revisions to Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 Sep '18, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. Copper is the upside leader, +0.6%, mirrored to the downside by Oil, -0.6%; rangiest is the Euro with a 77% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's daily MACD is nearing a negative crossover: were that to confirm in the ensuing days, we'd get an MRT of 22 points lower ($1,100/cac); as well, the Spoo still has some 63 points (in real-time) to work off above its smooth valuation line at Market Values; the other 4 primary BEGOS components are fairly close to their valuation lines. The Econ Baro takes in the Jul Trade Deficit.
04 Sep '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues, now finding every BEGOS Market lower except Oil, which is +1.9% over Gulf Coast storm concerns. Copper is the weakest component, -2.2%, in the process nixing our MRT of 2.7790. 2nd-weakest is Silver, -2.1%; Gold has marginally slipped sub-1200. The Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Values are accelerating their decline, however price (thus far) has held at mid-143s structural support. The Spoo (-0.3%) by Market Values is some 73 points "high" in real-time above its smooth valuation line. Aug's ISM(Mfg) and Jul's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro.
03 Sep '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway, the firmest two BEGOS Markets being the Euro and the Spoo, both +0.2%, and Gold the rangiest of the bunch with a 66% tracing of its EDTR; the weak components are the Swiss Franc and Silver, both -0.1%. Our MRT for Copper of 2.7790 is still alive, but price has come off, presently 2.6670 having been as high as 2.7665 during this parabolic Long run: a move sub-2.6220 (today) would flip the signal to Short, that hurdle rising at a pace of about 1¢ per session. The week's fairly busy schedule of incoming EconData commences tomorrow.
31 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Today 'tis the Bond's turn to roll its cac volume from Sep into Dec, for which there is nearly a full point of discount in price; but the BEGOS Markets' price movement is led by the PMs, with Silver +0.8% and Gold +0.5%; the yellow metal is also the EDTR tracings leader at 79%; otherwise, session volatility is light-to-moderate. The daily Parabolics on Copper remain Long such that the 2.7790 MRT is still in play. Weakest of the components is Oil, -0.3%. The Spoo has unwound a bit of its extreme "high" reading at Market Values, albeit in real-time is reading 79 points "high" above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro closes out Aug with its reading of the Chicago PMI.
30 Aug '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: Save for Oil, +0.3%, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver, -0.7%; the white metal's cac volume is rolling from Sep into Dec. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the EDTR tracings led by Silver and Copper, both at 70%. Copper's daily Parabolics are still Long in support of the MRT of 2.7790. As anticipated, the Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Values are (in real-time) now sub-80%, albeit price is trying to maintain a grip here in the mid-144s, barring slipping to the mid-143s. Incoming data for the Econ Baro includes Jul's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE inflation reading.
29 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: 24 hours on finds Copper this time the BEGOS Markets' weakest component, -0.7%; cac volume for the red metal is rolling from Sep into Dec, for which the daily Parabolics remain Long, our 2.7790 thus still in play. Oil has whirled back up, today at +0.5% the firmest of the bunch. Session volatility is light at best. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are rolling over such that by the current real-time reading of +82% they'll be sub-80% by tomorrow: should price clustering in the mid-144s fail to hold, a test of the mid-143s would structurally seem likely. The Econ Baro gets its 2nd peek at Q2 GDP as well as Jul's Pending Home Sales.
28 Aug '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' firmest component, +0.8%, whilst the Bond and Oil are the weak links, but only mildly so, both -0.1%; leading the EDTR tracings is the Swiss Franc at 90%; volume otherwise is light-to-moderate. Our MRT for Copper of 2.7790 (basis Dec) is intact as the daily Parabolics continue their Long ascent. Silver's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have climbed up above the -80% level, suggestive of still higher prices: structurally, clearing 15.000 ought open the door to 15.250. At Market Values, the Spoo has returned to an extreme "high" reading with price 100 points above the smooth valuation line; the "live" p/e is now up to 51.2x. Aug's Consumer Confidence comes into the Econ Baro.
27 Aug '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate, the BEGOS Markets fairly mixed in starting the week: firmest is Copper, +0.4%, but tied with Oil ("unch") for the least rangy component, both tracing just 30% of their EDTRs; Silver is the weakest of the bunch, -0.3%; most rangy is the Euro with a 72% EDTR tracing. Copper's cac volume has yet to fully roll into the Dec cac, however we've a fresh MRT for the red metal: the daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Long which as measured from the session's open of 2.7230 basis Dec gives us a Target of 2.7790 ($1,400/cac). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having just completed its 3rd best up week year-to-date, the 10-day Market Profile giving us a supportive look. No incoming data today for the Econ Baro with 10 metrics due in the week's balance.
24 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is lower, just -0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being higher with both Copper and Oil +1.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo points to a higher open for the S&P, albeit again at the Moneyflow page, the Index appears some 200 points inflated as measured over both the last month and quarter; as well, our "live" p/e remains above 50x; and by its Market Value in real-time, the Spoo is 77 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; similarly near an extreme "high" reading is the Bond, some 2 1/2 points above its line. For the Econ Baro today we get Jul's Durable Orders; Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole conference.
23 Aug '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are "unch" to lower, the weakest components being the metals with both Silver and Copper -1.2%, with Gold -0.5% and back sub-1200. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P yesterday failed to make a run for a record high as was barely achieved on Tuesday; the Spoo presently is mildly lower. No fresh MRTs have appeared the radar this week, however there are 17 on the watch list at the Market Rhythms page. The Kansas City Fed opens its annual conference in Jackson Hole. Jul's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
22 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, no one component changed by more than 0.4% either way, except for Oil, +1.2% and Silver, +0.6%; volatility is moderate. The S&P made a marginal all-time high (2873.23) yesterday by less than 1 point before sliding lower over the session's final 3 hours; our "live" p/e for the Index is 50.0x, and by Market Values the Spoo in real-time reads 82 points "high"; as well, all three readings on the Moneyflow page (week, month, quarter) are unsupportive of the Index's present level. Jul's Existing Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro. The minutes from the FOMC's 31 Jul/01 Aug meeting come due, for which there was no follow-up press conference.
21 Aug '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, -0.3%, the BEGOS Markets are up, led by Copper, +1.0%. The Swiss Franc is the rangiest of the bunch, sporting an EDTR tracing of 96%, with price recapturing almost a month's worth of downtrend; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. Gold is clawing away to regain the 1200s, the resistor per the Market Profile being 1201; but above 1204 there is room to run back up to 1220; supporters are 1193 and 1184. At Market Values, the Spoo continues to be quite "high" (91 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line.
20 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed in starting the week, with Copper firmest at +0.5% and Oil weakest at -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold's reported "change" of being +10 points belies that 8 of those came Friday post-COMEX close, such that from Friday's GLOBEX settle price actually is just +2 at 1194; The Gold Update notes the Gold/Silver ratio again exceeds the 80x threshold; the missive also notes Gold as having been at 1245 better than a year ago when the Dollar Index was 'round the same level 'tis today. We've a slow week for incoming Econ Data, with nothing due for the Econ Baro until Wednesday, the FOMC's 31 Jul/01 Aug meeting minutes also due that day.
17 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo is lower, and just barely at that, the upside leader of the BEGOS Markets being Oil, +0.7%, and for which the cac volume is moving from Sep into Oct. Volatility is moderate across the board. Oil's 6-hr. MACD is nearing a positive cross, which if confirmed would signal an MRT of 1.10 points higher ($1,100/cac) from the opening price of the subsequent period. Gold has only mildly recovered from a Market Magnet deviation of -31 points, its most extreme reading in the last three months. The Econ Baro today takes in Aug's UofM Sentiment reading and Jul's Leading Indicators, the +0.5% expectation rather belied by the declining Baro itself.
16 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate-to-robust: mind the Market Ranges page for EDTRs to increase. Gold (+0.4%), in trading between the 1160s and 1180s this session, is sporting the widest EDTR tracing at 178%; Silver (+1.2%) is the firmest of the bunch. At Market Values, Oil is -5 points below its smooth valuation line, the deviation a "extreme" low from the norm. More data comes into the Econ Baro today from Aug's Philly Fed Index and Jul's Housing Starts/Permits; Q2 Earnings Season winds down into week's end.
15 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: 8 trading days following Copper's daily Parabolics having flipped to Short, the 2.6705 MRT was achieved in today's -2.6% fallout of the red metal, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 146%; 2nd rangiest is Silver (-1.6%) with a 136% tracing and price back down into the 14s making 2 1/2-year lows. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower save for the Bond, +0.4%. At Market Trends, only that for the Spoo is up: however the "Baby Blues" therein have resumed their fall, now in real-time down to the +48% level. 'Tis an unusually large amount of incoming EconData today with 9 metrics due for the EconBaro.
14 Aug '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate, which are mixed as some firmness returns to the Turkish Lira. Our upside leader is Oil, +0.7%, and the weak link is Copper, -0.6%; the latter's 2.6705 MRT remains in place as the daily Parabolics continue their skid; the Swiss Franc leads the EDTR tracings at 95%. As the Spoo recovers some ground today, its Market Value reading is nonetheless running in real-time 77 points "high" above the smooth valuation line; the other four primary BEGOS components are not showing any extreme value readings. Ex/Im prices for Jul come into today's Econ Baro.
13 Aug '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Gold Updates touts the yellow metal as coming in for a soft landing, however both Gold and Silver are -1.0% -- the session's downside leaders -- followed by Copper, -0,9%, and Oil, -0.6%: only the Bond and Swiss Franc are marginally up; volatility is moderate, save for more robust Gold having traded 129% of its EDTR. Turkish Lira jitters continue, albeit the Dollar is only marginally higher vs. its Friday leap. Copper's MRT of 2.6705 is intact given the daily Parabolics are still sliding. Today begins the final week of Q2 Earnings Season; the Econ Baro is quiet ahead of 16 incoming metrics by week's end.
10 Aug '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the Turkish Lira and its potential "contagion" making the FinMedia headlines: but Gold barely is budged, -0.1%. The Euro, Silver, Copper are the downside leaders, all -0.5%, whilst the Bond and Oil lead to the upside, both +0.3%. Given the currency stirrings, the Euro is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 154%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Copper's daily Parabolics continue their Short trajectory, the MRT in place at 2.6705. Following yesterday's benign PPI reading, today brings the CPI into the Econ Baro.
09 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper, +2.0%, is firmest of the BEGOS Markets, price topping the 2.8000 level; the red metal's daily Parabolics are still to the Shortside; however were 2.8460 to trade today, (or about 2.8405 tomorrow), the study would reverse to Long and the MRT at 2.6705 would be nixed. The rest of the components are mixed, and with the exception of Copper having traded 107% of its EDTR, volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro is the weakest of the bunch, -0.2%. At Market Trends, mind the ascending "Baby Blues" of the Bond, Gold and Silver, all for which price has yet to pick up. Econ Baro metrics for today include Jul's PPI and Jun's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper, -0.5% and Oil, -0.4%. Not officially a BEGOS component, the Yen would be the firmest of the bunch, up as much as +0.5% and exceeding its its "high if an up day" guesstimate of 0.90420, having since pulled back to the present 0.90290 level; as well, the Yen has traced 92% of its EDTR, whilst volatility for the BEGOS bunch is light-to-moderate. The daily Parabolics for Copper are still Short, the 2.6705 MRT in place. At Market Values, the Spoo is showing better than 100 points "high", as extreme a reading as has been since at least a year ago; the S&P 500 is just 14 points from its all-time high of 2872, however we still view as warranted a return to 2154 given our "live" p/e presently being 44.7x.
07 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The metals and Oil are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders with Copper +1.3%, Silver +1.2%, Oil +1.0% and Gold +0.6%; only the Bond is lower, and by one mere pip at that: however at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have again notched higher in real-time; those for both Gold and Silver are mildly gliding up from the floor. Still, Copper's daily Parabolics remain Short: thus the MRT at 2.6705. Silver leads the EDTR tracings at 78%, with session volatility otherwise light-to-moderate. As for incoming metrics, Jun's Consumer Credit is due late in the day.
06 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Up the most to start the week is Oil, +1.2%, whilst similarly down the most is Copper, -1.2%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are basically "unch" to lower; sporting the widest EDTR tracing is the Swiss Franc at 75%; volatility otherwise is mostly moderate. Copper's daily Parabolics have flipped to Short from a confirmed entry price of 2.7265 with an MRT of 2.6705 ($1,400/cac). At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" in real-time have begun to curl up from below their -80% axis, suggestive of higher levels. The Gold Update recounts the yellow metal's ability to rise even in the face of both so-called "Dollar strength" and increases in the FedFunds rate; it also points out the negative divergence between the rising S&P 500 and declining Econ Baro, which for this week only a small number of a metrics come due.
03 Aug '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets at present are in the black, however volatility is light-to-moderate with Jul's payroll data in the balance. Firmest of the bunch is Copper, +0.9%. Oil came within a whisker of reaching its MRT of 66.89 (66.92) before reversing back up yesterday, sufficiently so to nix that Target as the 6-hr. MACD crossed to positive. The Spoo's recovery yesterday nonetheless at Market Values has put price in real-time 83 points "high" above the smooth valuation line. Due as well for the Econ Baro today are Jul's ISM(Svc) Index and Jun's Trade Deficit.
02 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and continues to work lower, -1.2%, nearing the MRT of 66.89 (which is within range for today) as the 6-hr. MACD remains negative. The upside leader is Silver, +0.6%, albeit Gold is flat. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are lower still, in real-time now down to 62%: but at Market Values, price is 43 points above the smooth valuation line. The only other component in the black at present is the Bond, +0.3%. Jun's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
01 Aug '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Ahead of the likely "stand pat" Fed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, led by Copper ('tis said that global factory activity is slowing) -2.4%; the red metal leads the EDTR tracings at 115%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate, and their changes at present are all less than -1.0%. Oil confirmed a negative crossing of its 6-hr. MACD, which as measured from the 18:00 PT period's opening of 68.29 gives us an MRT of 66.89 ($1,400/cac). At the Market Trends page, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" show as curling down sub-80% and now in real-time are down to the 73% level. Prior to the FOMC's policy decision -- for which the individual votes may be interesting -- the Econ Baro receives ADP's jobs data from Jul, along with the ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending.
31 Jul '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: Our MRT for the Euro of 1.15790 was nixed yesterday as the 8-hr. MACD confirmed crossing to positive. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are rolling over, now in real-time having crossed below the +80% level: such event generally heralds lower price levels, however the Spoo has been sufficiently upside stingy as to not always succumb, albeit the last such occurrence (02 Feb) was swiftly followed by a sound selloff of better than 200 points. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with volatility ranging from light (for the Spoo, Swiss Franc and Oil) to robust (for the Bond), the latter tracing 111% of its EDTR as the BOJ maintains a dovish stance. Six metrics come into the Econ Baro today, including the Fed's favoured PCE inflation data.
30 Jul '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil opens the BEGOS Markets trading week with a gain of 1.3%, the balance of the bunch being either side of "unch", save for the weak link Copper, -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate. Cac volume for Gold is moving from Aug into Dec, the premium being +10 points which one ought mind with respect to price "change"; The Gold Update points to the remarkably tight directional tracking of Gold and Copper since at least as far back as 2008's Black Swan; its cites as well that Gold continues to languish some 50 points below its smooth valuation line per the Market Values page. Jun's Pending Home Sales begin a busy week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, with the FOMC's rate decision due Wed.
27 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper, +0.5%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way: in the balance comes our 1st peek at Q2 GDP, the "expectation" for which is a +4.1% annual pace after that of +2.0% in Q1; the Econ Baro swung higher during much of the Q2 reporting period, so on verra, albeit +4.1% seems an ambitious estimate. Session volatility, as has been the case through the week 'round this time, is light-to-moderate. Of note, the Spoo did hit the "would be" MRT of 2845 (see 19 Jul comment). We've a fresh MRT, this for the Euro based on its 8-hr. MACD crossing negatively: presently 1.16715, (as measured from confirmation at 1.16830) the Target is 1.15790 ($1,300/cac).
26 Jul '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: We've red across the board for the BEGOS Markets, save for the Bond; the metals are the downside leaders with Copper -1.5%, Silver -0.4%, and Gold -0.3%; the Spoo too is -0.3% given negativity over FB, until yesterday the 4th largest cap-weighted stock in the S&P 500. Session volatility is yet again light-to-moderate. Despite Copper's pullback, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue their climbout from the floor, albeit this 2.78-2.88 area is recent structural resistance, the next bit of which would be in the 2.93-2.99 zone; presently 2.8200, Copper shows Market Profile support at 2.8150, and then most dominantly at 2.7650. An ECB policy decision and Draghi are due this morning, plus the Econ Baro receives Jun's Durable Orders.
25 Jul '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs with Silver +0.7% and Gold +0.5%; only Oil, -0.5%, and the Spoo, -0.1%, are lower; again, volatility is light-to-moderate, as 'tis said the markets are awaiting the results of today's Trump/Juncker TradeTalk. At Market Ranges, the only component for which the EDTR is materially widening is Copper (7¢ per day), whilst notably narrowing is the Spoo's EDTR, (now at 22 points per day, the tightest reading since 23 Jan). At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have kinked above the -80% axis for the first time since 02 Jul, after some 3 weeks of crawling across the floor. The Econ Baro takes in Jun's New Home Sales.
24 Jul '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss Franc which is all but "unch", the balance of the BEGOS Markets are all higher, led by Copper, +1.0%, and Silver, +0.9%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold (1227) remains stubbornly low by better than 50 points per the Market Values page. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) eclipsed the +80% level: the "would be" MRT of 2845 (see 19 Jul comment) is intact give the positive disposition of the daily Moneyflow. 75 S&P 500 companies have reported their Q2 Earnings, with 91% of them bettering their bottom lines of a year ago: still, the median "live" p/e remains a historically high 24.0x.
23 Jul '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.4%, is the BEGOS Markets upside leader; the balance of the bunch are mixed, the weakest being Silver, -0.3% and Gold, -0.2%. The Gold Update officially nixes our forecast 1434 high for this year "...barring a swiftly substantive swing in sentiment such as to send price skyrocketing..." which would likely take more than just a rescission of rate rises and Dollar weakness given all the cited overhead resistance areas; at Market Values, Gold's price (1230) remains better than 50 points below its smooth valuation line, the 4 other primary components not nearly as out-of-sync. Jun's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Jul '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Fairly mild changes at present for the BEGOS Markets, most of which are higher, save for the Bond and Spoo, Silver sporting the most net change at +0.4%; volatility is essentially moderate. Gold has regained the 1220s after making fresh year's lows for three days in-a-row, trading down to 1211: we look to formally nix our forecast high for this year of 1434 in tomorrow's Gold Update. The Econ Baro has had its fill for the week, and 'tis interesting to note that month-over-month it has not produced further upside swing. Meanwhile, Q2 Earnings Season is picking up steam, most companies reporting higher levels than in the like period a year ago, but the reality is: the p/e of the S&P remains unrealistically high per our Valuations & Rankings page.
19 Jul '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: More misery for the BEGOS Markets metals with Copper -2.8%, Silver -1.9% and Gold -0.9%; the balance of the bunch as well are all in the red; volatility is moderate to robust. Gold, which has traded down into the 1214s, is now 78 points (in real-time) below its smooth valuation line as displayed at Market Values. The Spoo's daily Moneyflow crossed above the 52 level (scale 0-100), producing a "would be" MRT of 2845, however we're very wary of chasing anything Long with respect to that market. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include Jul's Philly Fed Index and Jun's Leading Indicators.
18 Jul '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.0%, Copper -0.7% and Gold -0.4%; the yellow metal, now 1224, has but 3 trading sessions (into week's end) to right itself back up into the The Box (1280-1240) to ward off nixing our 2018 forecast high for 1434; that noted, the Market Values reading in realtime for Gold shows price as 73 points below the smooth valuation line, far and away the largest downside deviation in at least a year, so one ought think a bounce is in the offing. Post-Powell, perhaps? Today he testifies to the Senate Banking Committee and the Tan Tome gets released. Jun Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
17 Jul '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate, but the BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of Powell's testifying to the House Financial Services Committee: Weakest is Copper, -0.2%, and firmest are the Swiss Franc and Oil, both +0.2%; the latter achieved its MRT of 69.18 (68.18 Sep cac). Gold continues its battle to stay in The Box (1280-1240), each drop sub-1240 being met with volume-supported buying; per the Market Values page, price is more than 50 points below its smooth valuation line, which from a year ago-to-date has been the extreme from which up moves have then evolved. Jun's IndProd/CapUtil and Jul's NAHB Housing Index hit the Econ Baro today.
16 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mixed, the upside leader being the Swiss Franc +0.4% and the downside leader Oil -1.1%, the latter's daily MACD becoming more negative and our 69.18 MRT (68.18 Sep cac) in place; Oil's "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page are working lower, whilst at Market Values price remains better than 2 points above the smooth valuation line. The Gold Update underscores the technical importance of price (presently 1244) to not drive -- indeed settle a week -- below the bottom of The Box (1280-1240). Session volatility is light-to-moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Retail Sales, Jul's NY State Empire Index, and May's Business Inventories.
13 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Similar to what we saw the night of 02 July, Gold briefly dipped below the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) to 1239 in the 02:00 PT hour before bouncing back up on firmer volume than in the prior hour: however, various hourly time frames suggest lower levels ahead which may be cause to pull our 1434 forecast high for this year. At present, the Bond is +0.1%, the Spoo is "unch" and the other 6 BEGOS Markets are down, led by Silver -1.0%, the Dollar rising. Volatility is moderate. Oil's daily MACD confirmed the negative cross from this session's opening (70.38 Aug cac) giving us a MRT of 69.18 (or on the Sep cac 68.18). Jun's Ex/Im pricing and Jul's UofM Sentiment come into the Econ Baro.
12 Jul '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: With Oil dropping 4.8% yesterday, the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: if confirmed, we'll set an MRT of 1.2 points ($1,200/cac) lower from the ensuing session's opening price; at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have kinked lower as anticipated, and at Market Values price has fallen from having been better than 5 points "high" to now 3 points above the smooth valuation line. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with the Bond and EuroCurrencies down, the balance of the bunch up. However: Gold (+0.1%) is teasing the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) in trading down to 1241. Volatility is mostly moderate. Incoming Econ Baro data includes June's CPI.
11 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Tariff increases have all (but the Bond) BEGOS Markets down; we saw Copper at one point -3.3% (now -2.4%) and the Spoo off some 30 points from its 13:15 PT trading halt (now -18 points from there, or just 7 points from the 14:00 PT settle). Save for Copper blowing out its EDTR with a 192% tracing, the volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. At Market Values, Oil's reading remains better than 5 points "high" and its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends we expect to soon kink down; same can be said for the Bond's "Baby Blues". Also at Market Values, Gold shows as 50 points "low", price seemingly stuck in the 1250s after rebounding off the bottom of The Box (1280-1240); Gold's daily MACD confirmed a "weak" positive crossing, for which a conservative MRT of 1271.5 might be considered. June's PPI and May's Wholesale Inventories come into the Econ Baro.
10 Jul '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Save for small gains in Oil and the S&P, both +0.2%, the other 6 BEGOS Markets all are lower, led down by yesterday's metals winners with Copper -1.7%, Silver -1.2% and Gold -0.8%. Volatility ranges from mild -- Oil with and EDTR tracing of just 28% -- to robust with the 3 metals all sporting EDTR tracings in excess of 100%. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short: that study falls shy of making our present Market Rhythms listing, however at Market Trends the Bond's "Baby Blues" are sufficiently toppy such as to make us wary of further price slide. Q2 Earnings Season is underway, so mind the S&P Valuations and Rankings page over the ensuing weeks.
09 Jul '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: The metals components of the BEGOS Markets are the week's early leaders, Copper +1.2%, Silver +1.1% and Gold +0.8%; The Gold Update emphasizes the yellow metal's having briefly trading down to the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) last Mon evening before rebounding on sound volume; only the Bond and Oil are lower and volatility is moderate-to-robust. At Market Values, Oil is running 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line: at Market Trends we're watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" to eventually crack and for its daily MACD to cross negative in the ensuing days should price continue to stall in the 73-74 area, which also is structural resistance from back in 2011.
06 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: We again find the BEGOS Markets little changed either way, jobs data and the Trade Deficit awaiting the Econ Baro; the sole exception is Oil, -1.1%: its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends nonetheless in real-time are up to 78%, but look to be topping; conversely, those as we noted for Gold, are now just perceptibly turning up, yet remain are well-down at -90%; and those for the Spoo -- despite its firming this week -- are lower still, pushing the -76% in real-time. Session volatility ahead of the noted data is at best moderate, tariff imposition notwithstanding.
05 Jul '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Continuation of the 2-day session does not find volatility ramped up as much as we'd anticipated, the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings all sub-100% except for Copper's now 199% expanse: the red metal is the weakest of the bunch, -2.0%; the Spoo is still firmest, +0.6%, the other components not overly changed either way. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are making the earliest sign of bottoming, albeit those for Silver, Copper, and the Spoo remain in full plummet. The FOMC's 12-13 June meeting minutes come due today; the Econ Baro receives the Jun data for ADP jobs and ISM(Svc).
04 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: With the 2-day session well under way, we find Copper as the weakest of the BEGOS bunch, -1.1%, and also the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 129%; lower too is Oil, -0.6%; the Spoo is the firmest market, +0.3%, but beware its plummeting "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page; save for the red metal, volatility is light-to-moderate, yet that will likely shift toward being robust given this session's not settling until tomorrow (05 July), albeit we've today's 10:00-15:00 PT Independence Day halt. Gold, as we saw having yesterday tested the bottom of The Box (1280-1240), has continued to rebound, the session's high thus far being 1262. The Econ Baro benefited from yesterday's noted incoming data.
03 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Barely lower are both the Bond and Swiss Franc, the balance of the BEGOS Markets moving higher led by Oil +1.0%, Silver +0.7%, and Gold plus the Spoo both +0.4%; the latter closes at 10:15 PT, the others as usual at 14:00 PT; all then open as usual at 15:00, but with an Independence Day trading halt tomorrow from 10:00-to-15:00 PT, 04 July being cobbled into a 2-day session for 05 July's settle. Volatility thus far today is moderate, Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 93%; the yellow metal was swiftly bought after twice briefly penetrating the bottom of The Box (1280-1240), the low both times being at 1238.8 some 2 hours apart last evening. May's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro, plus June's Vehicle Sales as the day unfolds.
02 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: A reversal of Friday 'round this time as, save for the Bond's being up a few pips, the BEGOS Markets are lower into this first trading day of 2018's second semester, led to the downside by Silver, -1.0%, Copper and the S&P both -0.5%, and Gold -0.4%: The Gold Update emphasizes Gold's needing to gather itself so as not to bust below The Box (1280-1240), especially on a weekly close, for 'twould nullify our forecast high for this year of 1434. Per Gold's Market Profile, its near-term trading resistors (with price presently 1250) are 1252, 1257 & 1260. June's ISM(Mfg) Index and May Construction Spending are due today for the Econ Baro.
29 Jun '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond off but a pip, the BEGOS Markets are higher into this final trading day of 2018's first semester. As we saw 'round this time yesterday, the Euro is again leading the EDTR tracings at 112%, the Swiss Franc robust as well with a 103% tracing; volatility is otherwise moderate, except for Oil with just a 37% tracing. Oil now trading in the 73s, the low 60s areas of structural support did hold as anticipated per the month's early comments: yet now, the 70s mark a revisit to "price bunching" from 2010 and structural resistance (from what had been support) in 2011. Yesterday also saw Silver again make fresh lows for the year, enough so to achieve the downside MRT of 15.980. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include May's Personal Income/Spending/PCE, plus the Chi PMI for June.
28 Jun '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil is +0.6%; Copper is -0.6%: the balance of the BEGOS bunch are little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro is leading the EDTR tracings at 75%, Silver the most docile component with just a 26% tracing. Silver set a new low for the year yesterday, the Jul cac trading down to 15.945: as noted, volume today is moving into the Sep cac for which the revised like MRT is 9¢ above the Jul cac (15.890) at 15.980, the low thus far this session being 16.115; (the daily Moneyflow reading for Silver is again 26 on a scale of 100-0). The final Q1 GDP reading comes due today for the Econ Baro.
27 Jun '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only Oil, +0.7%, and the Bond, +0.4%, are up, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the red, Silver being the weakest, -0.6%; the white metal's daily Moneyflow is now down to 26 (scale 100-0), our MRT being 15.890 (Jul cac)/ 15.960 (Sep cac); volume ought be rolling into the latter cac tomorrow, as is Copper's volume so doing today. Session volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Magnets, extreme readings find Gold an unduly 22 points "low" whilst Oil rates some 4 points "high". Metrics for the Econ Baro today include May's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver's daily Moneyflow reading is working lower, presently down to 34 (scale 100-0), keeping on track our 15.890 (15.960 Sep) MRT; price this session has traded as low as 16.185, a level not seen since 02 May. Silver and Gold, both -0.6%, are the BEGOS Markets' weakest links, the yellow metal being the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 111%; otherwise, volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. As noted in The Gold Update, the case of the PMs falling appears out of sorts given the rise in the EuroCurrencies and the Bond these past 2 weeks, even as the Dollar too has been coming off the past few days. Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
25 Jun '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Leading most of the BEGOS Markets lower is Oil, -1.1%, followed by the Spoo, -0.5%; only the Bond is higher, +0.2%. Gold, whilst leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, is off but -0.1%. The Gold Update's rude awakening is that price is essentially where 'twas 8 years ago, back in what we today refer to as "The Box" (1280-1240), and yet (of course) the fundamental increases in M2 and debt ought have Gold double its current level. Silver's daily Moneyflow (see its chart in The Gold Update) continues to weaken, having moved sub-40, the MRT of 15.890 (or 15.960 Sep) being maintained. The Econ Baro kicks off a moderate incoming flow of Econ Data with May's New Home Sales.
22 Jun '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond's being slightly lower, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are up, led by Oil +0.9% ahead of a Fri/Sat OPEC stint and Silver +0.6%; still, the white metal's daily Moneyflow remains sub-48 (scale 100-0) and that measure would have to confirm a level above 52 to nullify the present Short signal for which we've an MRT of 15.890, (Silver's low thus far in 2018 is 16.07); at Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" in realtime have reached down to their 0% axis: they've not visited their -80% axis since mid-Dec. Session volatility is moderate and the Econ Baro is set for this week.
21 Jun '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil is down the most of the BEGOS Markets, -0.8%, however price (64.83) remains in the upper reaches of this lower 60s structural basing area as mentioned these past few weeks. Only the Bond and Copper are marginally up, and volatility is moderate. As anticipated, Silver's daily Moneyflow confirmed settling yesterday sub-48, giving us an MRT (as measured from this session's opening at 16.290) of 15.890. Gold (1265) is working its way down into the center of The Box (1280-1240), which we don't expect to be fully penetrated. The Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators come into the Econ Baro.
20 Jun '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Weakest of the BEGOS Markets are the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc -0.4% and Euro -0.3%; otherwise, the components are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate; Tariff-Talk which was so market-dominant yesterday has seemingly "fallen from the front page". Silver's daily Moneyflow is poised to confirm a crossing sub-48 (scale 100-0) come session's end: per the Market Rhythms page, that would trigger an MRT of 0.400 points lower ($2,000/cac); we'd eye that signal warily as 1) 'twould send Silver sub-16 for the 1st time this year, and 2) we don't see any justification for selling the PMs. The Q1 Current Account comes due for the Econ Baro, as does May's Existing Home Sales.
19 Jun '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly robust across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum, led by the Spoo which has traced 187% of its EDTR: after much of yesterday's selling was recovered, the Spoo has blown through that low (2761) down to 2736, further Tariff-Talk getting the blame; Copper is the weakest component, -2.1%, and the Bond is the firmest, +0.5%. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are falling for most of the bunch, the 2 exceptions being the Euro and Oil: at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold has made a marginal new low for the year (1277). The Econ Baro looks to Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Jun '18, 04:59 Pacific Time: Whilst most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, the Spoo is working lower, -0.5%; the Spoo had become overbought by all 3 of our "textbook" technical measures (BollBands, RSI and Stos) and is of course fundamentally as stated The Gold Update "terrifically overvalued" based on the unsupportive earnings of the S%P 500's constituents. Volatility is mostly moderate and Oil is the upside leader, +0.7%; despite its having lurched down on Fri, Oil has been basing as anticipated these past 2 weeks in the 64-66 area, overall support in the lower 60s stretching back to Mar; cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. The NAHB Housing Market Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
15 Jun '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: Oil and the Spoo are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, both -0.4%, whilst the Bond is the upside leader at +0.2%; volatility is moderate. The EuroCurrencies' cac volumes are moving from Jun into Sep. By so many technical measures we've been anticipating a severe move lower for the S&P, (not to mention our "live" p/e at present being a record 62.7x): for example, the Spoo's 6-hr. Parabolics (not listed on the Market Rhythms page given the goal is less than $1,000/cac) nonetheless have produced follow-through of at least 10 points ($500/cac) in all 10 of its last flips, the next one to Short likely getting confirmed at 06:00 PT for a target of 10 Spoo points lower from that period's opening. Due for the Econ Baro are the NY Empire Index, IndProd/CapUtil, and UofM Sentiment.
14 Jun '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Fed's +0.25% rate rise now in the rear-view mirror (with 2 more raises "expected" by year's end) and the ECB's "tapering" decision dead ahead, the BEGOS Markets are more robust than 'round this time yesterday. The PM's are the upside leaders, Silver +0.7% having found its way back into the 17s for the 1st time since 23 Apr; 'tis also the most volatile component having traced 100% of its EDTR; Copper -0.5% is the weakest of the bunch; Oil is least volatile with just a 28% EDTR tracing. Ex/Im Pricing, Retail Sales and Business Inventories highlight the incoming Econ Baro metrics.
13 Jun '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed with the FOMC's 0.25% rate hike in the balance; no one component is presently changed by 0.2% in either direction and volatility is mostly light. The 8-hr. Moneyflow on the Spoo -- having recorded good Market Rhythm performance -- has turned whippy: obviously the S&P remains vastly overvalued, such that we're sticking to our full 25% correction call down to 2154. The Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are curling down from above their +80% level; save for the Euro and Oil, the other 6 of the bunch are in 21-day linear regression uptrends. Prior to the Fed, the Econ Baro receives the May PPI.
12 Jun '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Little market reaction has followed the Trump/Kim Singapore Summit: on balance, there's some post-talk selling, led by Silver -0.4%, with Gold, Copper and Oil all -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Spoo's 8-hr. Moneyflow, presently on the Market Rhythms list, crossed sub-50 (scale 100-0) at midnight PT: should a sub-48 reading be confirmed, we'd then have a MRT for 28 points lower ($1,400/cac) from the opening price of the then subsequent 8-hr. period. Data coming due for the Econ Baro today includes the May CPI. Also today, the FOMC meeting kicks off, the +0.25% Fed Funds Rate announcement being tomorrow.
11 Jun '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The week highlighting Wed's 0.25% Fed rate hike begins with only the Bond marginally to the upside; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are working lower (a reversal of what has characterized recent sessions), led by Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.0%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update again cites just how narrow has become the trading ranges of the PMs, Gold's EDTR at 10 points and that for Silver at 0.20 points ... and it doesn't appear rationale that Tue's Trump/Kim Singapore Summit ought offer much in expanding price range or valuation. The rest of the week then brings a plentiful dose of incoming data for the Econ Baro.
08 Jun '18, 08:29 Central Euro Time: Oil and the Spoo are the BEGOS Markets' weak links; that said, Oil at 65.65 has avoided the 63s such that it may be seeking a bottom through here, taking into account the 64-61 structural support area. Cac volume on the Spoo is moving from Jun into Sep. At Market Values, Oil remains at a fairly "low" extreme and the Spoo at one which is "high". At Market Ranges the PMs EDTRs remain at very narrow levels. And at Market Trends, the accelerative climb of the Euro's "Baby Blues" continues. Session volatility is thus far light, but picking up toward moderate. Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
07 Jun '18, 08:30 Central Euro Time: At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are defying price's recent up move, now early on into a 5th consecutive day; at Market Values, price is better than 100 points above the smooth valuation line, as extreme as we've seen in at least a year, not to mention the "live" p/e being 54x. For the 3rd straight session, again just the Bond is a bit lower while the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher; early on, volatility is light. An increase in Consumer Credit for April is due to hit the Econ Baro late in the session.
06 Jun '18, 08:54 Central Euro Time: Similar to yesterday, only the Bond at present is lower; leading the BEGOS Markets higher are Silver and Oil, both +0.5%; volatility is light. Further to our prior note, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to plummet: but given the cited structural support (64-61) price now at 65.83 is better than a full point above yesterday's low (64.22), yet with just 33% of today's EDTR having been traced. The Euro's Baby Blues in real-time are beginning to accelerate their upward glide; the Euro's Market Profile shows trading support in the 1.1730 to 1.1680 range. The Econ Baro awaits Apr's Trade Deficit and the revision to Q1 Productivity.
05 Jun '18, 11:30 Central Euro Time: Save for the barely-down Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are mildly higher, led by Copper +0.4%; volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their sub-0% plummet; however, mind too Oil's Market Magnet and its smooth valuation line at Market Values: both measures suggest that Oil's ongoing sell-off is getting "long in the tooth" as price (presently 65.05) nears structural support in the 64-61 area from back in early April. ISM(Svc) hits the Econ Baro later today.
04 Jun '18, 08:31 Central Euro Time: A subtle start to a fairly light week of incoming Econ Data: the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, no one component presently more than 0.2% changed from Friday's settle; volatility is light, save for Copper with a 64% tracing of its EDTR. The Gold Update emphasizes the narrow trading range of the precious metals, especially given all the geopolitical goings-ons and the challenge facing a still overwhelmingly overvalued S&P 500 and erratic Econ Baro track with further FED rate hikes still assumed to be looming. An April decline for Factory Orders is due today.
01 Jun '18, 15:28 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper and the Spoo, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower: volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Gold and the Swiss Franc exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. May's employment data came in ahead of both consensus and Apr's readings; still in today's Econ Data balance are the ISM Index, Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are now confirmed as having crossed below their 0% axis, suggestive of further price decline, albeit there is firming in this 65-67 area. Those for the Spoo are accelerating their decline, and whilst they're still above 0%, price's ability to remain above 2700 appears suspect.
31 May '18, 14:25 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are thus far a bit calmer vs. the prior two days, the one exception perhaps Oil which is -1.1%, its "Baby Blues" only now in real-time crossing below their 0% axis; volatility is moderate rather than reaching the robust levels we've been seeing, albeit at the Market Ranges pages, EDTRs on balance have increased. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favourite inflation measure of core PCE, along with the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales.
30 May '18, 19:34 Central Euro Time: Today's Spoo is playing "what goes down must come up", in trading nearly back up to yesterday's high (2731) with 2727 having thus far printed. Indeed save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets all are higher today, and volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold's volume is moving from the Jun cac into that for Aug, and as the week unfolds, the Bond's cac volume will shift from Jun into Sep. The second read on Q1 GDP slipped a notch from 2.3% to 2.2%, as did the Chain Deflator's from 2.0% to 1.9%. Amidst yesterday's PIIGS concerns, the Swiss Franc reached our MRT at 1.0144.
29 May '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: PIIGS jitters -- specifically Italian and to an extent Spanish -- have equities falling and debt rising as the two-day BEGOS Markets session continues. Firmest is the Bond +1.0% and weakest are the Spoo and Euro, both -1.0%; volatility is robust with 6 of the 8 components' EDTR tracings exceeding 100%, and notably for the Bond and Euro, exceeding 200%. There is some negative pull on the Swiss Franc, but not enough to turn the daily MACD negative: thus the MRT for 1.0144 remains in place. Week-over-week Oil has swing from the 72s down into the 65s. The week's parade of metrics coming into the Econ Baro begins today with Consumer Confidence.
28 May '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: U.S. and U.K. bourses are closed, however the BEGOS Markets are trading. Oil continues to come off: per our 24 May note, Oil then was trading in the 71s; 'tis now in the 66s. The Swiss Franc had neared the 1.0144 MRT before having since pulled back, yet the daily MACD remains positive, keeping that Target in play; the Euro, now in the 1.16s, has reached down to its lowest level since 13 Nov. The Gold Update looks for the yellow metal to be seeking its low for the year, i.e. that support afforded by the 1290s-1260s ought hold. 18 metrics come due this week for the Econ Baro.
25 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Ahead of the StateSide and U.K. 3-day weekend the BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by the Bond +0.3% and on the downside by Oil -2.3%, the latter as anticipated per yesterday's note; Oil has traced 140% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is moderate for the other components. The PMs have exhibited firmness every since Gold went sub-1300 on 15 May: 'tis now back above that level. The Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" appear poised to break above their 0%-axis early in the new week, and with the daily MACD staying its positive course, our MRT remains 1.0144. The Econ Baro receives its final metrics for the week, including Apr's Durable Orders.
24 May '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil appears to be beginning to crack: at Market Trends its "Baby Blues" have kinked lower in real-time, at Market Values price is some 3.5 points above the smooth valuation line, and the 8-hr. Price Oscillator likely will go negative today. Our MRT for the Swiss Franc of 1.0144 remains in place, the daily MACD still positive; as well, the Franc's Baby Blues continue their upward acceleration and the daily Price Oscillator is nearing a positive crossing. The BEGOS Markets Metals and EuroCurrencies are all higher; Oil, the Bond and Spoo are lower; volatility is moderate. Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
23 May '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc is up to its highest level since 01 May (1.0128) as it nears our MRT of 1.0144 given the ongoing positive track of the daily MACD. The Spoo has more than closed its weekend gap from the U.S./China "trade tensions truce", last Friday's settle having been 2712, price up to yesterday's high of 2741, and then down to this session's low of 2704. The Swiss Franc, Gold and Bond are up; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are down; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the weakest and rangiest of the bunch being Copper -1.9% with a 170% EDTR tracing. Minutes of the 01/02 May FOMC meeting come due, as well as New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.
22 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: The PMs are maintaining their firmness with which they returned yesterday; Oil -0.3% is the weakest BEGOS Market and Copper +0.9% is the upside leader; volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends the Swiss Franc is accelerating is climbout, and with the daily MACD still positive, our MRT remains 1.0144. The Bond is testing Market Profile support at 141^06. At Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear very "High" whilst both the Euro and Gold show as very "low", all relative to their respective deviations from their smooth valuation lines from a year ago-to-date.
21 May '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo gapped up beyond its "high if an up day" guesstimate of 2733.75 on talk of a "trade tensions truce" between the U.S. and China; price has since whittled away a bit to 2728.75, but nonetheless is still +0.6%; Copper is higher as well, +1.3%, but the balance of the BEGOS bunch are flat to lower, led by the PMs. Gold has traded down nearly to the top of The Box (1280-1260) which as noted in The Gold Update we expect to be supportive as the low for this year, price then to ascend to our forecast high of 1434. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD continues its positive track, the MRT being 1.0144. Q1 Earnings Season has concluded with 71% of 2074 reporting companies beating their Q1 of last year; specific to the S&P 500, of its 434 earnings reports, 85% improved.
18 May '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: On balance the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the weakest being Copper -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD remains positive, the "Baby Blues" continuing their climbout, the MRT still in play for 1.0144. Cac vol for Oil is moving from Jun into Jul. At Market Values, Gold is some 50 points below its smooth valuation line, which by that chart's oscillator is an extreme low; similarly, Oil's chart shows it as (still) being at an extreme high 'round +5 points. The Econ Baro has already closed out the week with a gain, and Q1 Earnings Season wraps up today.
17 May '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc has been rather quiet since its daily MACD turned positive, which still 'tis, whilst at Market Trends the Franc's "Baby Blues" are more notably on the rise; so the MRT of 1.0144 remains in place. Our "textbook technicals" (BollBands, RSI and Stos) on the Spoo all show it as "overbought", albeit its Baby Blues are accelerating higher. Oil is as it highest level (72.30) since Nov 2014; it is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed and volatility again moderate. The Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
16 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, the mild exception being the Euro -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The daily MACD on the Swiss Franc continues its positive track, our MRT of 1.0144 being maintained. Gold is trading in the 1200s for the first time this year: The Gold Update has repetitively pointed to May's being a poor month for the yellow metal as it now bangs about in Neverland, aka "The Whiny 1290s"; we look to the The Box (1280-1260) as stalwart support. The Spoo's slide yesterday was not enough for price to reach down to its magnet, yesterday's settle still some 35 points "high". Metrics coming into the Econ Baro today are Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.
15 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Given confirmation of the two noted EuroCurrencies' studies, we're siding with the Swiss Franc's now positive daily MACD, from which we've an MRT of 1.0144. Save for Oil and Copper, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, with volatility again is moderate. Despite the Spoo's having settled higher for 8 consecutive sessions, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have only barely broken above their 0% axis, and at Market Magnet price settled yesterday as 62 points "high", an extreme level across the last 3 months of readings; at Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR has been dropping, yet at 31 points, a sell-off today suggests a low "guesstimate" of 2704 per the Spoo's page itself. Arriving for the Econ Baro are Retail Sales, the NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and the NAHB's Housing Index.
14 May '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: A mixed start to the new week for the BEGOS Markets, 5 of which are up, led by the Euro and Oil both +0.4%, the other 3 down, led by Copper -0.8%; volatility is moderate. The Euro's daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long and the Swiss Franc's daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive: upon confirmation, both would present MRTs, however we'd likely side with the latter as it has presented a more consistent Market Rhythm result as currently listed on that page. A moderate amount of data is due this week for the Econ Baro, all of it due to arrive Tue-Thu; as well, 'tis the final week of Q1Earnings Season.
11 May '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round this time yesterday, all of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, (meaning we don't need to see a chart of the Dollar to know 'tis down). Silver, +0.4%, is the firmest of the bunch; volatility is light-to-moderate. Both the Swiss Franc's daily MACD and Euro's daily Parabolics are quite close respectively to going positive and flipping to Long; confirmation in both cases is possible by session's end; mind as well both currencies' "Baby Blues" at Market Trends, that indicator just beginning to curl higher. Ex/Im pricing and UofM Sentiment come into the Econ Baro today.
10 May '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently higher and volatility is mostly moderate, the outlier being Copper with an EDTR tracing of 104%; the red metal is also the firmest of the bunch, +1.3%, followed by the white metal, +0.7%. The Dollar's beginning to show signs of cooling ought in the ensuing few sessions flip the daily Parabolics on the Euro to Long and cross the daily MACD on the Swiss Franc to positive: both of those studies are on our current list at Market Rhythms. The Econ Baro awaits the CPI data.
09 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold, -0.5%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and is also leading the volatility with an EDTR tracing of 105%; for the balance of the bunch, volatility is moderate. The upside leader is Oil, +1.3%: at Market Values, Oil shows as at an extreme high (+5 points) vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; price is high as well per Oil's Market Magnet. The Spoo, +0.4%, saw its aforementioned 2-hr. Moneyflow cross sub-48 yesterday: in real-time 'tis presently 50, and would have to confirm closing a 2-hr. period above 52 before nullifying the case to be Short. Due for the Econ Baro are the PPI and Wholesale Inventories.
08 May '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Trump on Iran ought be a markets' mover 'round 11:00 Pacific. Save for the "unch " Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets are working lower on light-to-moderate volatility. A key Spoo Market Rhythm to mind (not on the Market Rhythms list as it seeks a very aggressive profit level) is the 2-hr. Moneyflow: it triggers a signal upon crossing (on a scale of 0-100) above 52 (for Longs) else below 48 (for Shorts) and may well trigger to the downside during today: its average duration is some 3 calendar days, having crossed 10 times since early April and because of the Spoo's volatility has demonstrated fairly profitable follow-through; as always, cash management is King;
07 May '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Following the Spoo's reaching its conservative MRT (2610.75) as noted, the daily MACD is now provisionally positive; but if it confirm by day's end, we shan't seek an upside MRT, given our view that the S&P is in an overall 25% correction (targeting 2154). The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short: that study is currently makes our list on the Market Rhythms page. The Gold Update underscores May expectantly having starting off weakly, price reaching a low for the year last Tue, with the upper 1200s likely in the offing. The Swiss Franc is below 1.0000 (0.9985) for the 1st time since 06 Nov and with an EDTR tracing of 110% is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is otherwise mostly moderate and price changes mixed.
04 May '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Spoo's negative daily MACD quickly carried price to the conservative MRT (2610.75); despite the Spoo's then recovering in full to the area 'round its Market Profile apex of 2631, the MACD is further negative in this session thus keeping the aggressive MRT (2564.75) in place. With Apr payrolls data in the balance, the BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is essentially light: Oil is firmest +0.4% and Copper weakest -0.6%. The Dollar's recent rise has shoved the Euro to an extreme "low" area vis-à-vis its Market Values chart.
03 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The daily MACD on the Spoo confirmed a negative cross to give us an MRT from today's open (2626.75) of conservatively 16 points down to 2610.75 ($800/cac), and/or aggressively 62 points down to 2564.75 ($3,100/cac); the year-to-date low is 2529.00. Post-Fed, we've all 8 BEGOS Markets in the black and volatility mostly is moderate, the outlier being Copper +1.3% and having traced 107% of its EDTR. A rash of Econ Data comes in today for the Econ Baro, including Q1 Productivity, the Trade Deficit, Factory Orders and ISM(Svc).
02 May '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Spoo momentarily is "unch" with the FOMC's policy statement due today; the Spoo's range thus far is 15 points, which is a 41% tracing of the present EDTR of 37 points. Save for Oil being -0.1%, the other BEGOS Markets are up, with metals leading the way: Silver +1.3%, Copper +0.8% and Gold +0.5%. We're still minding the Spoo's daily MACD for a negative crossing but now are wary the angle of cross is practically negligible; still per the Market Rhythms list, that study is currently the most robust of the bunch. Ahead of the Fed for the Econ Baro comes the ADP employment data.
01 May '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, again led by Oil -1.0%. However, Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator whipped to a positive cross, in turn nixing our 66.41 MRT. But Silver did achieve the 16.275 MRT. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, and many of the Euro-bourses are closed for their 01 May Fête du Travail, et alia. The Spoo's daily MACD again is approaching a negative cross toward establishing an MRT upon confirmation. ISM(Mfg) and Construction Spending work into the Econ Baro, along with vehicle sales as the day unfolds,.
30 Apr '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are working lower to start the week, led to the downside by Oil (-1.0%) and the PMs; The Gold Update points to a dour May and already the weekly Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short. Silver's daily Moneyflow has confirmed going sub-50 (scale 100-0) from an entry level of 16.555 (currently 16.400) for an MRT of 16.275. Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has negatively crossed from an entry level of 67.51 (currently 67.32) for an MRT of 66.41. Copper and the Spoo are mildly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate. The week is highlighted by the FOMC's rate decision on Wed, plus 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics, today including the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, plus Personal Income/Spending, the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales.
27 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: Except for Copper which is -2.0% and has traced 116% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets otherwise are little changed either way and volatility is mostly light, all this ahead of the 1st peek at Q1 GDP: mind that the Econ Baro had pretty much slid throughout Q1 such that a sub-2.0% (which is the "expectation") reading wouldn't be that much of a surprise. Per yesterday's note, the Bond now is rising for the 2nd straight day; Silver's daily Moneyflow has provisionally has dipped sub-50 (also, cac vol is moving from May into Jul); and the Spoo's daily MACD has yet to cross negatively.
26 Apr '18, 04:37 Pacific Time: The Bond -- after 6 consecutive down days -- is +0.4%, 2nd just to Oil +0.7%; only Copper -0.7% (the cac volume for which is moving from May into Jul) is lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Magnets, you can see the Bond finished yesterday nearly 2.5 points "low", which by its graphic's oscillator is fairly extreme. The Spoo's daily MACD has yet to cross negative, but still is pointed toward so doing. Silver's daily Moneyflow looks on track to cross sub-50: as listed at Market Rhythms, follow-through from such crossings has been 0.280 points ($1,400/cac) in all 10 of the last prior occurrences. The ECB and Draghi are due, along with Durable Orders for the Econ Baro.
25 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo's move lower yesterday precluded the 8-hr. Parabolics from flipping back to Long; moreover, the daily MACD is nearing a negative cross which upon confirmation would provide a conservative downside MRT of 16 points ($800/cac) or aggressively 62 points ($3,100/cac). All of the BEGOS Markets are lower (save for Copper +0.1%), Silver being the weakest -1.0%; volatility is moderate. But at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower from above the 80% level for the 2nd straight day. A rare quirk for Earnings Season: with the help of the lowered corporate tax rate, more companies are topping their Q1s of a year ago than are beating estimates.
24 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The same study for the Spoo that yesterday enabled price reaching the "aggressive" MRT of 2659.50 finds the 8-hr. Parabolics nearing their flip back to Long should price (presently 2686.50) exceed the 2688-2691 area today, (depending on time of day); that noted, we'd be wary of chasing upside Spoo MRTs, if even the study is listed on the Market Rhythms page. Save for Copper (+1.9%) and the Spoo (+0.5%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are either side of "unch" and volatility is light, expect for the red metal having traced 103% of its EDTR. New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Apr '18, 04:38 Pacific Time: On Friday, the 8-hr. Parabolics for the Spoo swiftly reached our "conservative" MRT of 2679.50 and came within one pip (2679.75) for our "aggressive" MRT of 2659.50. The Spoo gapped up to 2684.75 at this session's open, but at present, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is moderate; back above 90, the Dollar is at its highest level since 12 Jan. The Gold Update points to a move back into the 16s for Silver (as now is the case), should the yellow metal not be supportive of the white metal's recent up move solely as an industrial metal. The 10-yr. Note yield is 2.951%, with much FinMedia buzz about it nearing 3%, (which is where it last topped out at the end of 2013). The Econ Baro looks to Existing Home Sales.
20 Apr '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics flipped to Short yesterday: as measured from an entry price price of 2695.50 (08:00 Pacific, 19 Apr), our conservative downside MRT is 2679.50 (16 points or $800/cac), or aggressively 2659.50, (36 points or $1,800/cac). Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, led by Silver -0.6%; volatility is light to moderate. Evidence of the lower corporate tax rate kicking in is reflected in the 52 S&P companies having thus far reported as 50 of them (96%) have bettered their Q1 of a year ago. No data is due today for the Econ Baro.
19 Apr '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way, Oil up the most at +0.6% and Copper the weakest at -0.4%. Volatility is moderate, again save for the Spoo which sports thus far an EDTR tracing of only 21%, albeit at Market Ranges we can see that for the Spoo is coming off the year's high extremes: but we look for that ranginess to increase upon the overall 25% S&P correction again picking up steam. To that end, mind the Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics as they could flip to Short fairly readily. Metrics today for the Econ Baro include the Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators, which by their lagging nature ought have slowed given the Baro's decline this year.
18 Apr '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver is streaking toward 17, (high 16.965): yesterday marked the 50th consecutive trading day of Silver's trading entirely within the 16 handle; Silver along with Copper and Oil are all up better than 1.0%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with an EDTR tracing of just 29% to robust for Copper's 118% tracing. Silver's daily Moneyflow confirmed crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) at yesterday's close, giving us a MRT (from this session's opening at 16.785) of 17.065: this Market Rhythm has produced follow-through of at least 0.280 points ($1,400/cac) as measured from each signal's opening price 10 of the last 10 times as is in the current list at Market Rhythms. The Fed's Tan Tome is due today.
17 Apr '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Euro's daily Parabolic has provisionally flipped to Long: that nixes our MRT of 1.22360. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, save for Copper which is -0.6% and the Spoo which is +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Magnets, the Spoo adjusted for real-time is some 50 points "high". At Market Values, Oil has begun to come off from its high extreme level above the smooth valuation line, although price remains quite stretched at better than 3 full points "high"; Oil's cac volume is moving from May into Jun. Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due for the Econ Baro.
16 Apr '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed with volatility moderate. As suggested in The Gold Update, the yellow metal is off a bit (-0.2%) post-Syria strike given no further fallout from that issue and Gold's wont to typically "return from whence it came" following geo-political events. The Euro is higher (+0.3%) but not enough as yet to flip the daily Parabolics to Long: today 'twould have to eclipse the 1.24570 level (presently 1.24210) to nix the MRT of 1.22360. A bevy of metrics hit the Econ Baro including Retail Sales, the NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Index.
13 Apr '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Remaining Short are the Euro's daily Parabolics: price currently is 1.23710, the Parabolic itself for today is 1.24685, and our MRT sits down there at 1.22360; at Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" are crawling across their mid-chart 0% axis, whilst those for the Swiss Franc are instead in descent sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Values, Oil is nearly 5 points above its smooth valuation line and 3 points above its Market Magnet: both readings are "high" extremes. Q1 bank earnings are beginning to roll in and the Econ Baro gets the UofM Sentiment survey.
12 Apr '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolics on the now falling Euro are still to the Shortside, so the 1.22360 MRT remains alive; indeed all of the BEGOS Markets are lower save for the Spoo which is +0.4%, yet is sporting the narrowest of the EDTRs, from which volatility for the bunch runs from light-to-robust with Copper and the Swiss Franc exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Gold made a high for the year yesterday at 1369 -- just 8 points shy of Base Camp 1377 -- before succumbing back down into the upper 1340s; Silver has yet to break out of the 16s (in that handle now for the 47th consecutive session). Gold, Copper and Oil all are somewhat "high" vis-à-vis their Market Magnets. Ex/Im pricing hits the Econ Baro today.
11 Apr '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Euro's daily Parabolics still are Short, however the upper 1.24s would flip them Long which would nix our MRT of 1.22360; the MRT based on Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator was swiftly reached yesterday (from an entry of 64.37 to the Target of 65.47). The BEGOS Markets are mixed, ranging from Oil +1.0% to the Spoo -0.9%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are beginning to curl upward from the -81% level, however we still see any material upside as limited within the overall -25% correction context. The Econ Baro receives the CPI and Treasury Budget. FOMC Minutes also are due, albeit their 20/21 Mar meeting was followed by Powell's 1st such press conference.
10 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility has up-shifted to moderate from this time yesterday; that noted, at Market Ranges we see the recently rising EDTRs now at best stalling if not falling, the one exception being that for the Spoo which is set at 58 points coming into today, the actual range already spanning 46 points. Save for the Bond, the other 7 components are higher. Still, the daily Parabolics remain Short for the Euro and its 1.22360 MRT. Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally turned positive: upon confirmation (06:00 PT) 'twould give us a Target of 1.1 points higher ($1,100/cac) from that period's opening price. PPI and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
09 Apr '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility has slowed as the BEGOS Markets start the week: only Copper and Gold have traced better than 50% of their EDTRs; those 2 components along with the Spoo are up, the balance are down. The Euro's daily Parabolics are still Short, the MRT of 1.22360 remaining in play. The Gold Update highlights the narrow trade of the PMs year-to-date despite the plights that ought have prices moving higher. Mind the sliding Econ Baro. Q1 Earnings Season is beginning, wherein for the 1st time we ought see the effect of the lowered corporate tax cut (from 35% to 21%).
06 Apr '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: More Trump tariff talk has tanked the Spoo as much 40 points; currently 'tis -20, (-0.7%); only the Bond and Eurocurrencies are in the black and volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets. The Euro has reached down as low as 1.22765, the daily Parabolics remaining to the Shortside towards keeping in place the 1.22360 MRT; at Market Values, the Euro this week has crossed beneath its smooth valuation line after having been above it most of the year-to-date. Coming into week's end, Silver likely will find itself entirely within the 16 handle for the 43rd consecutive trading day, (from 05 Feb onward). We've Mar jobs data for the Econ Baro and then Jay Powell from the Economic Club of Chicago.
05 Apr '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Save for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower and volatility is moderate. The Euro's daily Parabolics continue their Short trend, maintaining our MRT of 1.22360; at Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" are falling for their 6th consecutive day and look to fall below the 0% axis line going into week's end. The Bond's "Baby Blues" in real-time have kinked lower, having fallen just short of achieving the +80% axis; price has made a "lower low" for 3 straight sessions. At Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR is 58 points; if one can withstand the volatility, the Spoo's 1-hr. Parabolics have been providing material follow-through for at least the past two weeks. The Trade Deficit hits the Econ Baro today.
04 Apr '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Fresh PRC tariffs on StateSide stuff have the Spoo in a tailspin, off as much as 2% thus far, and Copper even more so -2.4% at present; Oil also is lower, the other 5 BEGOS Markets higher; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's daily Parabolics flipped to Short giving us an MRT of 1.22360; Copper's daily MACD confirmed crossing to positive but has provisionally whipsawed back to negative: had one leapt on that Long, the loss at present (from the session's open at 3.0670) would be -$1,838/cac barring a more protective cash management stop. ADP jobs data comes in for the Econ Baro, along with Factory Orders and the ISM(Svc) readings.
03 Apr '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil, Copper and the Spoo are thus far higher; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. We're eying 2 studies that are close to triggering MRTs: the Euro's daily Parabolics are near to flipping Short, (from which per the Market Rhythms page we'd then seek a Target of $1,300/cac lower), and Copper's Daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, (if confirmed from which we'd then seek a Target of $3,100/cac higher, or less aggressively, $1,800/cac higher). In real-time, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are just shy of crossing above their 80% axis: something to mind at the Market Trends page; the Bond also appears "high" per its Market Magnet.
02 Apr '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Q2 begins and with it shall be some "per-earnings season" entities reporting under the new tax law, so we'll be seeing if there's discernible improvement. Silver, which closed last Thursday on its high trade for the day is making intra-day highs as we type, albeit, as underscored in The Gold Update, the white metal remains well undervalued relative to the yellow metal, (it in turn of course far undervalued as well). Euro-bourses are closed today; volatility is light-to-moderate and the only BEGOS Market in the red is the Spoo, just mildly so. The Econ Baro looks for data from the ISM Index and Construction Spending.
29 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: As noted, this final trading day of the week has 6 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro including Personal Income/Spending and its Fed-favoured Core PCE inflation reading, plus the Chi PMI. The BEGOS Markets are mostly little changed either way and volatility is light. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative, essentially nixing our MRT of 1.0768 barring a reversal back higher today. Still, some 24 studies for perusal presently populate the Market Rhythms page. Post-close, trading resumes Sunday (15:00 PT)/Monday (00:00 CET). A safe, extended weekend to all.
28 Mar '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. Both Gold and the Swiss Franc are the downside leaders, each -0.6%; the latter's daily MACD is still positive, but less so, the MRT still in place for 1.0768. The Spoo's volatility finds it 100 points "low" compared to its smooth valuation line on the Market Values page, yet the S&P is some 70-120 points "high" vis-à-vis its Moneyflow page; per the Valuation and Rankings page, the p/e measurements remain extremely excessive. The Econ Baro receives the final Q4 GDP reading along with Pending Home Sales for Feb ahead of 6 more metrics tomorrow toward closing out the shortened trading week.
27 Mar '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc's daily MACD continues on the positive side thus keeping in place our MRT of 1.0768. Gold is giving back its gains of the past 3 sessions: as well, cac vol is moving from Apr into Jun; still at Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have since crossed in real-time further back above their 0% axis, although price along with that for Silver are the session's weakest of the BEGOS Markets, both -0.5%. Weaker, too, are the Bond and Eurocurrencies; firmer are the Spoo, Oil and Copper. Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Copper, the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Spoo +1.5% and the Euro +0.5%, with volatility again moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having put in best week of the year, breaking out of the narrow weekly trading range; however Silver's remains narrow, the Gold/Silver ratio at 81.4x with the white metal not having traded outside the 16s since 02 February. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD confirmed a positive crossing to give us a 1.0768 MRT (from an entry level of 1.0648 for +0.0120 points = $1,500/cac). This 4-day trading week is back-loaded with a bevy of incoming Econ Data.
23 Mar '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold reached the 1343.2 MRT and is firm for the present, up 1.0% as is Silver, the PMs leading the BEGOS Markets on the upside, the volatility for which is moderate-to-robust. The Spoo is off another 0.3%, but has been down as much as 1.1% this session: 'twouldn't be untoward to see it recover in full to yesterday's 2646.75 settle, albeit 2645 is a fresh Market Profile apex. Durable Orders and New Home Sales are scheduled to work their way into the Econ Baro, which yesterday reached its lowest reading since 02 Nov: one wonders if the Fed shall stick to its rate guidance for another 2-to-3 hikes this year.
22 Mar '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are working lower, led by the Spoo -0.7% as it flirts with the 2700 level in vindicating Tue's negative crossing of the daily MACD as noted. Volatility is moderate. Gold's 8-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed turning positive at 00:00 PT from 1330.2 for an MRT of 1343.2. At Market Magnets, note how high is Oil's price relative to its magnet. Slowing "Leading" Indicators from back in Feb are due today for the Econ Baro, which itself peaked back on 21 Dec.
21 Mar '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro will be fed Q4's Current Account deficit and Feb's Exiting Home Sales. Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly higher with volatility running light-to-moderate. We've not made much mention of late for MRTs, however the Market Rhythms page presently has 18 listed qualifiers to consider; post-Fed, we expect markets to be fairly robust in either direction, which ought bode well over the ensuing weeks for MRTs. One study of note to consider, albeit 'tis still pre-Fed, is the Spoo's daily MACD having confirmed a negative cross at yesterday's close: that rhythm is not on the list, but not for lack of follow-though: 6 of the last 10 signals have achieved at least 76 points of further price travel ($3,800/cac), however 7 such successes are needed to make the list; however, backing off to a lesser MRT increases that number, (i.e. 16 points has been achieved all 10 times).
20 Mar '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: Volatility is again moderate to this point of the session for the BEGOS Markets, the FOMC beginning their two-day affair. Most of the components are mildly lower, the exception being Oil +1.0%. Despite yesterday's 1.4% drop in the S&P, barely a dent was put in its extremely high p/e, the "live" reading for which is 54.4x; as well, the Spoo moved only marginally below its Market Magnet, and at Market Values, price is actually above the smooth valuation line. Again we've nothing due today for the Econ Baro in a week with just 6 metrics coming in, the Fed being the story.
19 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The week begins with moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are at present in the red. 'Tis a muted week for incoming data, save for the FedFunds rate being raised into the 1.50%-1.75% target range come the FOMC's policy statement on Wed. The Gold Update looks for the weekly trading range of price to begin widening along with a modest move into lower levels: the year's low of 1304 appears likely to be tested, with the weekly parabolic Long trend not allowing for much further room down, 1291 being the hurdle price.
16 Mar '18, 15:43 Pacific Time: Good news: the S&P 500 "Valuation and Rankings" page is once again being updated daily; thank you for your interest and patience. Bon Weekend!
16 Mar '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Market Ranges page clear shows the narrowing of EDTRs across the spectrum, most BEGOS components nearing their more "normal" levels, although that for the Spoo at 41 points per day still appears as excessive; still Wed's session into today's shows tighter Spoo ranges. Presently, only the Spoo is lower, just mildly so, the balance of the bunch all higher, and again volatility is comparably light relative to what have been higher EDTRs. At Market Values, four of the five primary BEGOS Markets are pretty much in line with their smooth valuation lines: only the Spoo appears somewhat "high". The incoming data parade continues today for the Econ Baro with metrics on Housing Starts/Permits, IndProd/CapUtil, and UofM Sentiment. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun, whilst that for Oil from Apr into May. That bevy of studies swinging to Long for the Euro (see 14 Mar) never really came with upside follow-through, although price is firming today thus far.
15 Mar '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly changed either way and volatility is light with another blast of Econ Data in the balance, including Ex/Im Pricing, the NY State Empire Index, Philly Fed Index and NAHB Index. Econ Baro watchers are noting its slipping for better than a month now, plus its inability to regain last Dec's high point. Trading ranges have been narrow of late for the PMs: Gold has not spanned its EDTR for 4 of the past 5 sessions, nor has Silver for all 5 sessions; both metals have traced less than 50% of their EDTRs thus far today. Copper's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their downward slide, and the 4-hr. MACD is poised for a negative cross: that study as currently listed on the Market Rhythms page suggests follow-through then of $1,200/cac (-1.0480 points further upon confirmation from the next period's opening price).
14 Mar '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The week's pace of incoming Econ Data picks up today, 5 metrics hitting the Econ Baro including PPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories. Copper is the most robust of the BEGOS Markets, +1.2% and having traced 92% of its EDTR; volatility is light for the balance of the bunch; both Oil and the Spoo are +0.4% whilst the other components are little changed either way. In yesterday's EOD work, the Euro's daily Moneyflow, 12-hr. MACD and 8-hr. Price Oscillator all swung to Long signals, their respective MRTs being 1.24175, 1.25145 and 1.24910: note that "1st Position" for the Mar Euro is Monday (19 Mar); note as well that Draghi's somewhat dovish ECB conference comments earlier this morning have since seen the Euro come off a bit.
13 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed with eyes on today's release of the Feb CPI; volatility is light, although the Yen (still not as yet formally characterized as a BEGOS component) has traded 125% of its EDTR. One shorter-term MRT we've been following is Gold's 60-min MACD, the crossovers having exhibited good follow-through in both directions, at lease of late; Gold's "Baby Blues" are finally breaking down after having clung to just below their 0% axis for a month: buying the price dips below what presently shows at 1319 in the Market Profile has been in play much of this year-to-date.
12 Mar '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo continues rallying in starting the week; the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are basically flat-to-lower, the metals being the downside leaders with Copper -1.0%, Silver -0.8% and Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update points to the buying of dips of late within an overall trendless pattern, and similarly so for Silver. Even should the S&P travel higher to exceed its all-time high (2872, 26 Jan), we'll still look to 2154 as a 25%+ correction target. A muted day today for the Econ Baro, however it shall collect 19 metrics as the week unfolds.
09 Mar '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light with payrolls data in the balance. The Market Ranges page depicts a narrowing of EDTRs: this in turn is increasing the list of studies to note on the Market Rhythms page as "Optimal Contract Profits" (for MRTs - Market Rhythm Targets) become less aggressive to achieve. Yesterday's drop in the Euro from the 1.24s now down into the 1.22s has brought price back into line with its Market Magnet. Cac volume for the Spoo is moving from Mar into Jun. Following the Dept. of Labor numbers, due as well today for the Econ Baro are Wholesale Inventories.
08 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper is the big mover amongst the BEGOS Markets, all of which are in the red , save for the Spoo; the red metal is the weakest of the bunch, -1.4%, and has traced 102% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. The Euro, which has slipped down into its 1.23 handle, appears nonetheless "high" relative to its Market Magnet, with the ECB and Draghi on deck. Per Market Profiles, the Spoo's support-to-resistance range is 2718 to 2747, with price fairly centered therein for the moment at 2732. The Econ Data calendar is minimal today ahead of the StateSide Dept. of Labor stats tomorrow.
07 Mar '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Cohn's resigning from the Econ Council during the sole hour the BEGOS Market's are closed (14:00-15:00 PT) saw the Spoo drop from its settle of 2724 to as low as 2681 before clambering back above the 2700 level, (presently 2703); the EuroCurrencies and PMs all had gains, only to now have given them back, such that to this point the components are mixed and overall volatility is light-to-moderate. As to the Spoo's perhaps closing the gap, we've a bevy of overhead resistors from 2710 up to 2724, all of which obviously were instantly hoovered by the gap-down open, but may be harder to recover in riding back up. The Econ Baro looks for a slowing in the ADP jobs data; due as well is the the Fed's Tan Tome.
06 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is more ramped up than 'twas at this time yesterday and net price changes are larger, led on the upside by both Copper and Silver with gains presently better than +1.0%. The Euro is back above 1.24, and the Bond is returning toward its low of two weeks ago in the mid-142s. The Swiss Franc by its Market Profile has traded therein up into the most dominant resistor of 1.0670. The Spoo for the present seems firm above its dominant Market Profile support of 2719, our broader expectation for the 25% correction notwithstanding. Gold appears entrapped between its Market Profile support of 1319 and resistor of 1331. A decline in Factory Orders is expected to hit the Econ Baro.
05 Mar '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed to start the week and volatility is light: again, that's relative to recent increases in the components EDTRs, as per the Market Ranges page, volatility is higher across the board than at this time a year ago. The Gold Update points to a negative (sub-50) cross by Gold's weekly Moneyflow study which historically would suggest Gold this time 'round would re-visit at least the 1290s, (last week's low was 1304); the missive also reiterates our expectation for a full 25% S&P correction (to 2154). Q4 Earnings season for 2017 is complete: 65% of the 2,217 reports gathered improved their bottom lines over Q4 of 2016: that is the highest improved percentage we've recorded since Q3 of 2006; but the overall S&P p/e remains vastly unsupportive of the current Index level; (59% of the 462 S&P companies that reported were better). Note: our S&P 500 Valuations & Rankings is temporarily not updating daily as the data broadcaster is in a migration to a new source provider, expected to be complete by mid-month. ISM(Svc) due for the Econ Baro.
02 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility is picking up for the BEGOS Markets, ranging this session from moderate to robust, the Swiss Franc notably having traded 113% of its EDTR. The components are mixed with Oil the biggest loser -1.1%. A lower open for the S&P is being pointing to by the Spoo: presently 2667, a reference level to keep in mind in the 06 Feb low of 2529, as what we see as a 25% correction (to S&P 2154) unfolds by Nov (StateSide mid-term elections); bids and offers for the Spoo continue to run at sub-normal size, in turn making for swift intra-day moves. Today marks the final day of Q4 Earnings Season, which for the S&P 500 finds some 59% bettering their Q4 of a year ago.
01 Mar '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are lower, the PMs leading to the downside with both Gold and Silver -0.8%; as noted in The Gold Update, price has not traded sub-1300 during 2018, however 'tis close to so doing here at 1308. Markets' volatility is light-to-moderate, and skittishness is evident at the Market Rhythms page by the shorter lengths appearing under the "Study's Timeframe" column. Fed Chairman Powell goes before the Senate Banking Committee on a day of much incoming Econ Data highlighted by the FOMC's preferred inflation reading of the PCE Price Index, plus Personal Income/Spending, the ISM(Mfg) Index, Construction Spending, and vehicle sales.
28 Feb '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The positive cross of the 8-hr. MACD on Gold was very short-lived, the study whipping back to the negative side in turn nixing our MRT for a 14.7-point loss (-$1,470/cac), barring tighter cash management. That noted, Gold has been firm, along with Silver, so far this session, which for the BEGOS Markets otherwise is mixed and volatility mostly light relative to recent days/weeks per the Market Ranges page's EDTRs. The Euro has traded down to its lowest level since 18 Jan. Cac vol for the Bond is moving from Mar into Jun; at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have been working their way up off the floor. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include the 2nd look at Q4 GDP, plus the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales.
27 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold's 8-hr. MACD confirmed its positive cross yesterday to give us an MRT (from the 16:00 period's opening level at 1333.8) of 1343.8. Most of the BEGOS Markets are lower ahead of new Fed Chairman Powell delivering his first testimony to the House Financial Services panel; only the EuroCurrencies are mildly up, and volatility is narrow across the board, save for Copper which has traced 62% of its EDTR. At Market Values, the five primary BEGOS Markets are in large part reeled in from their recent extremes, albeit the Euro still appears somewhat high. Durable Orders and Consumer Confidence work into the Econ Baro today. The cac volume for Silver is moving from Mar into May.
26 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Dollar must be lower as (save for a wee decline in Oil) all the BEGOS Markets are higher, Gold notably having scampered back up into the 1240s. Gold's 8-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, which if confirmed come 08:00 PT would give us an MRT of 10 points higher ($1,000/cac) from that period's opening price. Copper's cac volume is moving from the Mar cac into that for May. 'Tis a busy week for incoming Econ Data beginning today with New Home Sales, and the final week of Q4 Earnings Season: as yet again reiterated in The Gold Update, whilst earnings of S&P companies are comparably better, they remain nowhere supportive of the Index's current level. Thus our expectations remain firm for a 25% S&P move down to 2154, our thinking still being by the StateSide elections in Nov.
23 Feb '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Bond looks to be getting up on its feet, at session highs as we speak, and notably the "Baby Blues" too in real-time have curled a tad higher, albeit at -90% they've yet to prove themselves (by reaching up above the -80% level); nonetheless, the Bond is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mildly mixed and volatility mostly light. The Econ Baro is set for the week, but next week is heavy-set with incoming data. Q4 Earnings Season still has a week to roll: overall, 67% of reports have bettered their bottom lines of Q4 a year ago, but specific to the S&P 500, only 60% have improved.
22 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The 12-hr. Parabolics provisional Long signal for the Bond briefly confirmed yesterday before whipping back to Short at 00:00 PT with but a bare gain. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and volatility is running light-to-moderate. Notably for the Spoo, daily volume is up a bit from normal levels, however bids and offers remain at best 50% of their typical size; thus we continue to see material price swings: at Market Ranges, the Spoo's present EDTR of 65 points is still well above the median of around 15 points per day. Leading (lagging) Indicators for January come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are provisionally flipped to Long: should confirm come at 12:00 PT, we'd have an MRT for a full point higher ($1,000/cac) from the opening price at that time; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page have been crawling across the floor for some three weeks, price itself having on balance been in decline since 18 Dec. With the Dollar firming for the 4th straight session, the BEGOS Markets, save for a small gain in the Bond, are all flat to mildly lower, and volatility is light. Oil at 61.50 is its most commonly traded price in the past 2 weeks per the Market Profile. Existing Home Sales work into the Econ Baro today, plus the minutes of the Fed's 30-31 Jan meeting get released.
20 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The two-day day session now finds all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil, having come off, the Dollar continuing to firm since its Thu close. With respect to the S&P, the current Gold Update put forth "Let the selling resume", the Index having completed on Fri the Golden Ratio retracement as measured per our 16 Feb comment and the Spoo at present clearly pointing to a lower opening for stocks; as well, the Spoo finished Friday 75 points above its Market Magnet. Session volatility is moderate-to robust, the Swiss Franc notably having traced 109% of its EDTR. 'Tis a very muted week for incoming Econ Data: just 3 items are schedule to hit the Econ Baro; still, a robust dose of Q4 earnings are due.
19 Feb '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue Globex session is quite muted; Monday StateSide holidays can nonetheless offer material moves in the BEGOS Markets as the balance of the world continues on, albeit this time 'round there are Asian bourses shut for the Lunar New Year; still, with EDTRs of late running well above normal, 'tis almost eerily quiet out there. The PMs remain firm and Oil is +1.1%; otherwise volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update points to price readying to hurdle Base Camp 1377 for the run to 1400; also cited are the somewhat stagflationary metrics that worked into the Econ Baro last week. As to Q4 Earnings Season, with 365 of the S&P 500 having reported, 224 (61%) have bettered their like quarter of a year ago, an improvement over what we've see saw in recent quarters; however, our p/e measures for the Index remain exorbitantly high (per our Valuations & Rankings page).
16 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 06 Feb low (2629) to the 29 Jan high (2878) is 2745: the session's high thus far is 2746; (intra-day for the S&P 'tis 2742 and on a closing basis 2761). Amongst the BEGOS Markets correlations, the Spoo and Euro have been positively-correlated on a day-to-day basis such that we've not seen since 2011; the Dollar (88.720) is testing the resistance peaks (for support) from 2009 and 2011. Gold is losing session firmness after having traded 1364, (the year's high thus far being 1365). Volatility is again light-to-moderate with housing, Ex/Im pricing and UofM sentiment data in the balance for the Econ Baro.
15 Feb '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo is working higher, albeit (save for the Bond), the recent spate of all the other BEGOS Markets moving together appears in abate, the 3 metals and Oil in decline. Of note, were the Spoo to reach (per its page) its guesstimated "high if an up day" of 2748, 'toward be right in the neighbourhood of a .618 Gold Ratio retracement from the 2529 low on 06 Feb back up to the all-time high of 2878.50 on 29 Jan. Gold has come within several points (1359) of its high for this year (1365) such that yet again Base Camp 1377 seems ripe for the taking within the overall current weekly parabolic Long trend. Volatility (again giving due to the increased EDTRs) is running light-to-moderate. A bevy of data hits the Econ Baro today, including the PPI, NY Empire State Index, Philly Fed Index, IndProd/CapUtil and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: No sooner did we write yesterday that 'tis rare for a 1-hr. study to make the Market Rhythms page, (the Spoo 1-hr. study not surviving making the list a second day), that we've another: the 1-hr. Price Oscillator study on Oil: in the last 7 tests, it has had price follow-though of at least $1,400/cac (1.40 points) 5 times; again, to be judiciously managed. Ahead of an "all eyes on the Core CPI" number (05:30 PT), BEGOS Markets volatility is light, considering the increased EDTRs on the Market Ranges page: in fact, that for the Spoo (68 points) has kinked down by better than a full point for the first time since 28 Dec. Also due today for the Econ Baro are Retail Sales and Business Inventories.
13 Feb '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: It is rare for a 1-hr. study to make the Market Rhythms page, but the Spoo's 1-hr. MACD has presently the qualifications, given how volatile the S&P has been: 7 of the past 10 crossings have exceeded the requisite hurdle of $1,000/cac (20 points) in follow-through, indeed those 7 each reaching at least $1,600 (32 points) in follow-through: mind that study (as all studies) judiciously, for as always, cash management is critical. Given the increase in the BEGOS Markets EDTRs, volatility thus far this session is comparatively light-to-moderate, the Spoo actually with the narrowest EDTR tracing of just 33%. Only the Spoo and Oil are lower. The week's heavy load of EconData starts to kick in tomorrow.
12 Feb '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are starting the week higher. The Gold Update looks for only limited price downside, (ideally avoiding the 1200s), but for the S&P to broadly work lower culminating in a 25% correction, (which on a closing basis from the all-time high of 2872 on 26 Jan would be down to 2154, the time frame being perhaps out as far as the StateSide mid-term Nov elections); there simply is little if any material structural support down along that range; at 2154, we've estimated a p/e for the S&P (adjusted too for the less burdensome corporate income tax rate) of around 16x on a median non-cap-weighted basis vs. today's 39x. Mind the rising EDTRs -- especially for the Spoo -- at the Market Ranges page.
09 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday all the BEGOS Markets are lower, the Spoo having abandoned earlier gains to this point. At 2595, the Spoo is better than 100 points below its Market Magnet of 2734, and in real-time nearly 200 points below is smooth valuation line per our Market Values page. Volatility is mostly moderate across the components. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are (and indeed have been) falling for the entire bunch, albeit the Euro and Swiss Franc still are sporting 21-day linreg uptrends; Gold's is flat and those for the other 5 markets are down. Q4 Earnings Season is through the 1/2-way mark with 69% doing better than year ago; specific to the S&P 500, with 313 companies having reported, 65% are ahead of a year ago; still the p/e measure(s) per our "Valuation & Rankings " page remain excessively high, even given the Index's recent pullback. Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
08 Feb '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, (so obviously the Dollar must be higher). Spoo market depth continues to be comparably thin, albeit volume has backed off from what we saw Mon/Tue: still, the EDTR is 59 points, some 3-to-4 times normal. Market Profile support for the Spoo lies in the 2643-2636 zone; 2690 is resistance. Whilst the EDTRs are up for every component, as displayed on the Market Ranges page, none have multiplied nearly as much as has that for the Spoo. Mind Gold as it is testing the Oct peak of 1308, after which there is the Nov peak at 1299: so far this year, having yet again neared Base Camp 1377 has proved resistive for the yellow metal; the weekly parabolic Long trend nonetheless remains in place, (1257 being this week's flip level).
07 Feb '18, 04:41 Pacific Time: Whilst the Spoo has been back on the skids, now at 2680 'tis some 20 points off the session's low; still bids and offers remain thin -- notably this week just (by our glancing) some 5%-10% of normal per price point -- with cac volume double that of normal: thus these swings reminiscent of 2008's Black Swan unwinding. Should such conditions continue, a 25% correction from 26 January may well will out. Keep an eye on the Spoo's page ("S&P 500" under "BEGOS Markets") especially on the Magnets Chart: as price and magnet return to equilibrium we expect the selling to continue. A 10% correction for the S&P (closing basis) arrives at 2586: Mon's close has been the nearest at 2649, (and intra-day 2593). Given the rising EDTRs for all of the BEGOS Markets, we see this session's volatility thus far as moderate across all the components.
06 Feb '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's change needs to be +30 points for a "break even" S&P opening, (they're presently -32, thus a +62 swing is required by the opening bell). Yesterday at 10:00 PT, trading in the Spoo turned reminiscent of that during late 2008: vast points changes in seconds with bid and offer sizes just 10% of normal; thin and dangerous trading conditions, which have not really spilled into the other BEGOS Markets components. For example this session, only the Bond and Spoo have traded in excess of the EDTRs. Mind the Market Ranges page, and especially the Spoo page. The Trade Deficit works into the Econ Baro today.
05 Feb '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver is the session's big winner to this point, +1.6%: The Gold Update cites the Gold/Silver ratio having topped 80x for just the fourth time since 2001, and that historically, the white metal has then found itself as much as 20%-40% higher within six months. Another down opening appears in store for the S&P, for which the Spoo has finally returned to below its smooth valuation line (Market Values) and is now extremely "low" by its Market Magnet. Still, even in the face of an improved Q4 Earnings Season, bottom lines themselves remain terrifically low vis-à-vis the level of the S&P, which would remain "expensive" even down at 2150 should a 25% correction be underway, the cut in the corporate tax rate notwithstanding. ISM(Svc) due today for the Econ Baro.
02 Feb '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo has swiftly reached its 2800.75 MRT; the "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page have only begun to crack, such that should this structural in the low 2800s let go, a run down into the 2750s wouldn't be untoward; in real-time, price is now just 21 points above its smooth valuation line, coming off the "high" extremes seen for some time at Market Values. The Bond is trying to firm after falling four of the past 5 sessions: price has been in an overall downtrend since mid-Dec with rates increasing on the longer-end of the yield curve. All 8 BEGOS Market are in the red and volatility is light-to-moderate, save for that of the Spoo, which has traded 126% of its EDTR. In the balance for the Econ Baro come data on payrolls and Factory Orders.
01 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The daily MACD on the Spoo is confirmed as negative: this study because of a too-aggressive Target has not been qualifying for the Market Rhythms page, however follow-through by at least 28 points ($1,400/cac) has been achieved in 7 of the last crossings; note: the 3 failures to reach that far all were to the Shortside; still, we view the S&P has having entered a period (finally) of being vulnerable to significant downside. Thus 28 points below this session's opening at 2828.75 yields an MRT of 2800.75. (Much more broadly, as is noted in The Gold Update, a 25% correction in the S&P would still find it "expensive"; there is structural support in the S&P 2200-2000 area to culminate such a correction). Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. On the Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" are beginning to breakdown for the Spoo, Gold and Oil. Q4 Productivity, plus ISM(Mfg), Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales all come due for the Econ Baro.
31 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo is getting a bounce this session, but thus far 'tis not enough to thwart a provisional crossing to negative of the daily MACD, which if confirmed come session's end can establish a downside Market Rhythm Target, likely beyond which can see a run down to some structural support 'round the bottom of the 2800s. All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black, the Dollar thus obviously lower; volatility again is moderate. Today's metrics for the Econ Baro include the ADP jobs reading, Q4's ECI, the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales. Today also marks Yellen's final overseeing of an FOMC policy statement, to be released at 11:00 PT with no scheduled press conference.
30 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Back-to-back down openings for the StateSide stock market? Odd indeed. The Spoo's daily MACD is nearing a negative crossover: barring it not getting confirmed as the week unfolds, we'll likely have an MRT at least 20 points lower upon confirmation; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page have yet to crack. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate: Oil is the weakest component, -1.0%, yet its Baby Blues too have yet to break down. At Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil are still at fairly high extremes. Gold's cac volume is rolling from Feb into Apr, adding some 5 points in contango. A higher Consumer Confidence number is expected for the Econ Baro.
29 Jan '18, 04:12 Pacific Time: A down opening for the StateSide stock market? How odd. The Spoo had worked its way higher from the 15:00 PT Sunday opening, but has spent the last 8 hours in the red. From the Spoo's page, the "low if a down day" guesstimate is 2856.25, however should the selling get accelerative, there are Market Profile supports at 2849 and notably so at 2840. The Gold Update suggests that Friday's straight up S&P 500 finale was a blow-off top. Save for a mild gain in Copper, all 7 of the other BEGOS Markets are lower and volatility is mostly moderate. Oil and the Bond are the weakest of the bunch, both -0.5%, and the latter has traced 120% of its EDTR. Mind the high "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page as various components look poised to crack. Personal Income/Spending kick off a busy incoming data week for the Econ Baro, along with a no-go FOMC decision come Wednesday.
26 Jan '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The first read of Q4 GDP arrives today: by the Econ Baro, the first 2/3rds of actual Q4 data received (Nov to the Baro's 20 Dec peak) was waxing, the latter 1/3 since then waning.; Durables for Dec come due as well. Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are rising. At the Market Values page, the Bond is as low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line as has been the case in better than a year, whilst both Oil and the Spoo are at extreme high deviations; however, the readings at the Market Magnets page for those three components page are not as stressed as they've been. Most volatile this session are the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss and the Euro itself having exceeded 100% of their respective EDTRs.
25 Jan '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold has surpassed last year's high of 1362, reaching up thus far in this session to 1365: that brings into play the 2016 high at Base Camp 1377, the centerpiece of significant resistance these past four years after its having been support following Gold's fall from the All-Time High of 1923 (06 September 2011). The Euro has traded just short of the 1.25 level ahead of the ECB policy announcement and Mario Draghi's comments. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. New Home Sales and Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
24 Jan '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are higher, Gold notably having traded up through the 1350 level: its young weekly parabolic Long trend seems to have price headed toward testing last year's high of 1362, and in turn taking a shot of 2016's high at Base Camp 1377; as noted in The Gold Update's scoreboard, our "conservative" high call for the yellow metal this year is 1434. The Spoo higher yet again, but appears very much as was the case yesterday to be lacking further material upside push. Volatility is moderate, and the Existing Home Sales report is expected to show slowing.
23 Jan '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: The MRT for Copper of 3.1600 was reached, and then some, price reaching down in the 3.13s, presently -2.0% and sporting an EDTR tracing of 159%, the "Baby Blues" also in full plummet. The BEGOS Markets otherwise are mildly lower, save for modest gains in the Bond and Gold. Of the 14 completed trading days year-to-date, the S&P has only had 3 that were net losers: today may be the 4th, the Spoo having given back most of its rising finale from yesterday's last hour of stock market trading; in real-time, the Spoo is 88 points above its smooth valuation line and 50 points above its Market Magnet, both readings being "extreme" to the upside.
22 Jan '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's daily Moneyflow remains below the 50 level which is keeping the MRT of 3.1600 in play: the red metal's EDTR is 0.0505, so the distance from the present 3.2095 level to the MRT is within range should a normal down day or two ensue. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are starting the week higher: only Oil and the Spoo are off a bit, and volatility is moderate. Q4 Earnings Season is still quite young, but clearly on the improve this time around: specific to the S&P 500, 35 companies have reported, of which 29 (83%) have bettered their bottom lines; for Q3 only 41% had risen. That noted, no matter how much we "dumb it down" at "The S&P 500: --Valuation & Rankings" page, the p/e ratio for the Index remains unsupportably high such that even a correction of 25% -- which we anticipate is sitting out there -- shall still leave stocks very expense by portfolio valuation methods.
19 Jan '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Further firming in the EuroCurrencies has turned the Swiss Franc's 4-hr. MACD back to positive thus nixing our MRT of 1.0302; still, Copper's MRT of 3.1600 remains alive as the daily Moneyflow is still sub-50. Oil's "Baby Blues" in real-time are beginning to roll over: we see structural support in the 62.20 area. Since Wednesday, the Spoo keeps running out of puff up in the 2805-2809 range: 'tis again the case to this point in this session; the Spoo's Baby Blues remain high in the sky, but by the Market Values and Market Magnets pages, price continues to appear at high extremes. UofM's sentiment is expected to show enthusiasm continuing to build.
18 Jan '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Firmness returns to the EuroCurrencies: the 4-hr. MACD on the Swiss Franc remains negative, but that stance is waning such that the MRT of 1.0302 looks to be in jeopardy; the currency is also the most volatile of this session's BEGOS Markets, having traced 113% of its EDTR. Copper's daily Moneyflow is still sub-50, keeping the MRT of 3.1600 in play. From the Market Trends page, Gold's "Baby Blues" in real-time have dropped a notch, albeit still are strong at +92%; those for Oil look vulnerable to soon cracking. Some weakness is expected in the housing data and Philly Fed Index which would further lend to the Econ Baro's recent decline.
17 Jan '18, 04:38 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are coming a bit off their recent boil; of note, the Swiss Franc's 4-hour MACD confirmed turning negative: generally, shorter time frames don't make the Market Rhythms page, but this one has for an MRT (as measured from the confirmed 00:00 PT crossing at 1.0430) of 1.0302. Copper's MRT of 3.1600 remains in place, the daily Moneyflow working lower still: at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) are down to the +20% level and look to go sub-0% by week's end (barring a strong rally) which would also mean the 21-day linreg trend will have turned negative. Trade in the PMs is mixed and the is Spoo firmer following yesterday's fallout: but the swift selling we saw suggests the S&P has reached a point of fragility.
16 Jan '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue GLOBEX session continues with most of the BEGOS components exceeding 100% of their EDTRs given it all being counted as a single trading day; yet no one component is presently changed by 1% either way. Copper is lower, the daily Moneyflow falling further sub-50, the 3.1600 MRT thus still targeted. The PMs are taking a breather, yet the "Baby Blues" remain +80% for both Gold and Silver. As anticipated, Spoo has now traded above 2800: at the Market Values page, the Spoo is nearing 100 points above its smooth valuation line, an extreme high reading; at Market Magnets, the Spoo shows having strayed by more than 50 points to the upside. Expectations are for the NY Empire Index to have improved.
15 Jan '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: StateSide bourses are shut for MLK Day; the BEGOS Markets are in a Sun-Tue trading session with a halt later today from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT. Strength in the Euro Currencies now finds the Swiss Franc above 1.04 and the Euro itself topping 1.23; the Spoo is in record-high territory, the 2800 handle nearly having traded. Copper is +1.5%, but its daily Moneyflow confirmed going sub-50 such as to give us an MRT (as measured from the session's open at 3.2240) of 3.1600; as well, the red metal's "Baby Blues" continue their steady descent. The PMs are higher: The Gold Update cites the weekly parabolic trend having flipped to Long, with Base Camp 1377 in turn a reasonable upside goal. Note too the recent keeling over of the Econ Baro.
12 Jan '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Quickly nixed is the MRT we'd set just yesterday for the Euro as weak StateSide inflation data and positive German political coalition has sent the currency to its highest level since Dec 2104 at 1.21830. Dollar weakness is also working to the benefit of the Swiss Franc, Silver and Gold, the latter making a new high in the young year at 1333.8. Copper, which has been in mild decline for some 2 weeks, the "Baby Blues" also furthering their fall, is just now seeing its daily Moneyflow cross sub-50%: if confirmed by day's end 'twould suggest an MRT of an additional 0.0640 ($1,600/cac) lower. Oil's daily chart suggests a "blow off" high yesterday at 64.77. CPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories all work into the Econ Baro today.
11 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Euro confirmed its daily Parabolics flipping to short (see 09 Jan), albeit price has since bounced a bit from yesterday's designated opening at 1.19850; still the MRT is set for 1.11810. As well, Silver's daily Parabolics also have flipped to Short, however given the strength of the PMs, we shan't chase the "would be" MRT there of 16.385. That said, the "Baby Blues" for both the Euro and Silver, as well as those for the Swiss Franc, Gold (barely) and for a week now Copper are all in decline, all having reached well above their respective +80% levels as displayed on the Market Trends page. The Spoo's 9-session win streak was snapped yesterday, but price pre-PPI is presently suggestive of a +5 point opening for the S&P.
10 Jan '18, 04:00 Pacific Time: The Bond is reaching down to levels not seen since last March: 'tis said that "officials reviewing China’s foreign-exchange holdings" have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries. This in turn is also dragging down the Spoo, the S&P having finished higher for the last 9 trading days. Dollar weakness is pushing the PMs above last week's closing levels. Per the Spoo's page, the "high if a down day" of 2753.25 is thus far precisely that (in a carryover candle from the prior session), the "low if a down day" set at 2736.50; given a low already of 2737.25, the Market Profile support price at 2734 looks likely, the next in line being 2726.00.
09 Jan '18, 04:02 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolics on both the Euro and Swiss Franc are provisionally flipping to Short: at the Market Rhythms page, the Swiss Franc is not listed as its MRT falls short of the requisite $1,000/cac criteria, however 8 of its last 10 flips have then traveled at least an additional $900/cac; for the Euro, the additional travel is listed as $1,300/cac, that distance having been achieved following 7 of the past 10 flips. The BEGOS Markets are more lively that we saw 'round this time yesterday: the Yen is not (as yet) officially a component, but it shot up like a rocket last evening upon the BOJ's announcing a trimming in its long bond purchases, swiftly sending the currency well up beyond our "high if an up day" guesstimate of .89040 to as much as .89190 before giving back that quintessential 62% Golden Ratio amount and since return higher. Joining the EuroCurrencies on the weak side are the PMs.
08 Jan '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Copper's "Baby Blues" have notched lower for the 2nd straight session: they've room to further fall given they're still +80% (at 84%); the center area of Copper's prior down trend that ran from mid-Oct into early Dec is 'round the 3.10 handle; or from that Dec low to the late Dec high, a Golden Ratio retracement would come in 'round the 3.06 handle; so from this 3.22 handle, 'twould be a meaty move should a Short ride get down to those areas. The Euro's daily Parabolics look to get tripped to the Short side in the next session or two; the Euro is the most rangy component of the BEGOS Markets, in what is otherwise a mixed session of medium volatility. The Gold Update upgrades its scoreboard and substantiates an up year for the PMs.
05 Jan '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: A bevy of data hits the Econ Baro today: Payrolls, Trade Deficit, Factory Orders and ISM(Svc). In advance of it all, 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are down: only the Spoo is higher in taking a run at the R1 daily pivot at 2733. As noted, our watch for Copper's "Baby Blues" finally sees them down in real-time, price itself having worked lower since the 28 Dec high of 3.322: the red metal had recorded 14 consecutive up trading days from 8 through 28 Dec. No new MRT for the present: the Market Rhythms page itself lists but 6 Rhythms that are meeting our signaling requirements, suggestive that price follow-through has been well below average of late. That doesn't mean markets haven't been trending: the Euro, Gold, Silver Copper, Oil and Spoo all have been in solid up trends - but so much so that technical study crossovers have been minimal. (Stay tuned).
04 Jan '18, 04:03 Pacific Time: Yes, the MRT of 2662.00 for the Spoo is all but nixed: its daily MACD histogram remains barely negative even with the Spoo up further this morning, but a close north of 2015 likely shall cross the study to positive; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are firming rather than following-through to lower levels: they're spot on +80% in real-time. We're watching Copper's Baby Blues: they continue to climb in real-time, however price ran out of upside puff at year-end; also the red metal's daily Moneyflow study looks like it shan't remain firm (77 on a scale of 0-100) much longer. ADP jobs data today precedes the gov't data tomorrow.
03 Jan '18, 04:00 Pacific Time: Despite the up-push of the Spoo to this point of the new year, the new highs remain pip-by-pip minimal: 2698.00 on both 18 & 19 Dec; 2698.25 on 29 Dec; and now 2698.50 so far this session; the lack of material upside follow-through is what tripped the daily MACD to negative on 27 Dec; our MRT thus remains 2662.00; the Spoo's Market Value is some 50 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; also the Spoo these last two weeks has been in negative correlation with the Bond, which is firmer this morning. ISM(Mfg), Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales arrive today for the Econ Baro. Probably nothing surprising from the FOMC Minutes as Chair Yellen gave her final press conference thereto back on 13 Dec.
02 Jan '18, 04:12 Pacific Time: New Year Greetings. We've decided to change this section up a bit: a little less doctrinaire, regurgitative and form-fitting; perhaps more useful and informative. Less is oft more, more is sometimes required. Specific quote data is only what 'tis when we write and readers likely have it all at the ready in their own form. The unique content of this site is what gives it value and one can poke to one's desire around the various pages. Drawing from those and other sources, we look to cite that which is of timely interest to us, be it Market Rhythm Targets (MRT), the Econ Baro, Earnings truth, the Market Trends' "Baby Blues", Profiles, Magnets, Values, et alia. In starting 2018, The Gold Update describes a conservative high for this year of 1434, or aggressively 1526. The Spoo's daily MACD remains negative toward an MRT of 2662.00 and in real-time the Baby Blues have slipped below 80%. Have a great year and Cheers!
29 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2695.00, +0.4%) looks like it may make a run to touch 2700 before the year is out, (the all-time high being 2698); that noted, the daily MACD continues it negative course toward keeping viable the 2662.00 Market Rhythm Target, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) whilst still +80%, have nudged lower still for the 7th straight session; the Spoo has closed lower on the last trading day for the past 4 years, but never for a 5th millennium-to-date. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate. A Safe and Happy New Year to our valued readers!
28 Dec '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (16.790, +0.2%) reached the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780; we've a new Target for the Spoo (2688.25, +0.1%) of 2662.00 per the MACD's negative crossing; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for some 3 weeks remain +80%, but are showing mild decline; 2687 is Market Profile support. Save for the Bond (152^16, -0.3%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper (3.3030, +0.7%); the rangiest component is the Swiss (1.0253, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 133%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Chi PMI due @ 06:45 PT.
27 Dec '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2689.25, +0.1%) daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 22 points ($1,100/cac) lower from the next session's opening level; Silver's (16.655, +0.3%) daily Parabolics still are Long, toward the 16.780 Target; the white metal is the BEGOS Markets' upside leader, whilst weakest is Oil (59.49, -0.5%); volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Values, Gold's (1289.3, +0.1%) good run these last 2 weeks only has it just now returning up to its valuation line. Consumer Confidence/Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Dec '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond (150^30, -0.1%) and EuroCurrencies are lower in starting the week, the weakest component being the Swiss (1.0168, -0.3%); the balance of the bunch are higher, led by Copper (3.2810, +1.1%), the red metal also with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 130%. Silver's (16.495, +0.3%) daily Parabolics remain Long toward the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780; The Gold Update suggests white metal has room to run up into the 16.80-17.20 area which appears fairly price congestive per the daily bars from Oct-Nov as noted per Silver's "Baby Blues" graphic.
22 Dec '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Separatist victory in Catalonia has effectively shoved the Euro (1.19335, -0.2%) into the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing position at 75%; the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets have very limited tracings such that volatility is light. Oil (58.05, -0.3%) is weakest, whilst firmest is Silver (16.255, +0.5%), the latter's daily Parabolics still Long, keeping the 16.780 Market Rhythm Target in play. The Spoo's (2690.00, +0.1%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain pasted on the ceiling. Personal Inc/Spd/PCE & Durables @ 05:30 PT; New Homes @ 07:00 PT. Merry Christmas!
21 Dec '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets spectrum with just the Swiss (1.0193, -0.2%) reaching an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 50%; the Swiss is the weakest component whilst the Spoo (2687.00, +0.2%) is the firmest; at Market Values the Spoo is some 75 points "high", although price's distance above its Market Magnet has come off the recent extreme reading. Silver's (16.220, -0.1%) daily Parabolics remain Long, keeping intact the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780. Finalized Q3 GDP and Philly Fed Index due at 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators due at 07:00 PT.
20 Dec '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1745, +0.9%) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader, price approaching a 1-month high; the red metal is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 78%; otherwise, volatility is light, the narrowest component being Oil (57.76) with just a 21% tracing;weakest is the Swiss (1.0198, -0.3%). The daily Parabolics for Silver (16.260, +0.5%) remain Long in support of the 16.780 Market Rhythm Target. Save for the Spoo (2692.75, +0.3%), the 21-day linreg trends for the 7 other components are down, (even Copper's). Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
19 Dec '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.225, +0.2%) daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Long (from this session's open of 16.180) giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 16.780. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led to the downside by Copper (3.1280, -0.5%) and to the upside by Oil (57.53) and the Euro (1.18970) both +0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Spoo's (2696.50, "unch") Market Profile shows support at 2695, but then quite an air pocket down to the next dominant supporters at 2671 and 2667; its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are on the ceiling. Housing/Permits/Q3 Current Account: 05:30 PT.
18 Dec '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: We're nixing the Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (cur 1.18780, +0.4%, tar 1.17845), the daily Parabolics are flipping to Long, as they are for Silver (16.140, +0.2%). Per our Market Rhythms page, confirmation of Silver's flip would target a level 0.600 points higher ($3,000/cac) as measured from the opening price of the ensuing session. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly light, save for the EuroCurrencies, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings led by the Euro at 73% and then the Swiss (1.0208. +0.3%) at 69%. NAHB Housing comes due @ 07:00 PT.
15 Dec '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: With the EuroCurrencies rolling into Mar, we adjust our Market Rhythm Target for the Mar Euro (1.18875, +0.2%) from 1.17045 (Dec) to 1.17845 (Mar), the daily Parabolics still Short; the Euro is also the rangiest BEGOS Market with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 71%. 7 of the 8 components are higher, save for the Bond (154^01, "unch"): leading is Silver (16.015, +0.6%) for which today's hurdle to flip its daily Parabolics to Long is 16.150. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is rolling into Feb (57.36, +0.3%). NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
14 Dec '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.18270, "unch"), if muted for the moment, is back above 1.18: however, 'twould have to cross into the 1.19s (this session) to flip the daily Parabolics to Long, so the 1.17045 Market Rhythm Target is still in place. Were Silver (16.065. -0.2%) today breach 16.180, its daily Parabolics would flip to Long. The BEGOS Markets are mildly "unch"-to-lower, save for Copper (3.0625, +0.2%) which is sporting an EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracing of 112%. Volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi/Retail Sales/Ex-Im Pricing: 05:30 PT; BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
13 Dec '17, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (3.0475, +0.8%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are little changed-to-mildly lower; volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper with an 83% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Silver (15.720,-0.2%) has but a 26% tracing. The Euro's (1.17415, "unch") daily Parabolics are still Short for the Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing sub-0% as the 21-day linreg trend goes negative; only the Spoo's (2666.50, -0.1%) and Oil's (57.44, "unch") are positive. CPI @ 05:30 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT; Yellen @ 11:30 PT.
12 Dec '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light for the BEGOS Markets, with only Oil (58.36, +0.6%) and the Swiss (1.0099, +0.1%) just exceeding 50% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges); Oil is also the firmest of the bunch, whilst the weakest is Copper (3.0060, -0.3%). The daily Parabolics for the Euro (1.17795, +0.1%) remain Short in support of our 1.17045 Market Rhythm Target; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies are still dropping, albeit the Swiss' blue dots in real-time are slowing their decline, (but not so those of the PMs). PPI due at 05:30 PT.
11 Dec '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17970, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering falling, the daily Parabolics Short such as to keep our Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045 in place. The BEGOS Markets are quiet and volatility is light-to-moderate, led by Copper's (2.9835, +0.1%) EDTR (see Market Ranges) 60% tracing; narrowest is the Spoo (2656.00, "unch") with a 22% tracing. The Precious Metals, whilst not losing more ground thus far, appear subject to near-term weakness, The Gold Update depicting December net weakness for Gold (1251.3, +0.1%) across 6 of the past 7 years.
08 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: We've another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, led by Oil (57.41, +1.4%) which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%; volatility is moderate across the board; weakest are the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss (1.0032) and the Euro (1.17420) both -0.3%; the latter's daily Parabolics remain Short toward our Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045; the EuroCurrencies' "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to accelerate their respective descents. Payrolls data due @ 05:30 PT; Wholesale Inventories & UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT.
07 Dec '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17935, -0.1%) daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Short for a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's 1.18085 open) of 1.17045. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed with moderate volatility, the PMs leading to the downside with Silver (15.840, -0.8%) and Gold (1257.1, -0.7%); per The Gold Update, "The Box" of support for Gold is the 1280-1240 range. Copper (2.9740, +0.3%) is firmest, whilst the Swiss (1.0079, -0.3%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 86%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating lower for the EuroCurrencies.
06 Dec '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The Bond's (153^31, -0.2%) 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Long, nixing our 150^20 Market Rhythm Target; Gold's (1270.2, +0.1%) Target of 1267.1 was achieved. The Euro's (1.18185, -0.1%) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short (at 1.18010): confirmation would set a Target of 0.01040 points lower ($1,300/cac) from the ensuing session's open; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping. The BEGOS Markets are mixed; volatility is moderate. Firmest is Copper (2.9740, +0.8%) and weakest is Oil (56.88, -1.0%). ADP: 05:15 PT; Q3 Prod(Rev): 05:30 PT.
05 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Copper (3.0265) which is well off at -2.0%; the red metal's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is 168%. 2nd weakest is Oil (57.18, -0.5%) followed by Silver (16.315, -0.2%). The Bond's (152^31, -0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics are still Short, the Market Rhythm Target being 150^20. Gold's (1278.3, "unch") daily MACD confirmed a negative cross yesterday giving us a Target of 1267.1. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun rolling over from above +80%, suggestive of lower prices. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
04 Dec '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate as the week commences, the Swiss (1.0174, -0.7%) with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 84%. Save for the Spoo (2659.75, +0.6%) and Copper (3.1025, +0.3%), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver (16.325, -0.9%); The Gold Update describes how the Gold/Silver ratio is nearing prior peak highs, but that present technicals portend lower PM prices into year-end. The Bond's (152^22, -0.3%) Market Rhythm Target of 150^20 is still intact, its 12-hr. Parabolics remaining Short. Factory Orders due at 07:00 PT.
01 Dec '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil (57.84, +0.7%) is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Bond (152^21, +0.5%); still the latter's 12-hr. Parabolics are Short in support of our Market Rhythm Target of 150^20; the Bond is also tracing the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 118%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Silver (16.415, -0.3%) is the weakest of the bunch; 2nd lowest is the Spoo (2637.25, -0.2%), which may be pressured come a "sell tax bill passage news", or certainly so should such fail to go through. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spdg: 07:00 PT; Senate tax voting: 08:00 PT.
30 Nov '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: After three days of decided drops, Copper (3.0845, +0.6%) is getting a bid, tied with Oil (57.71, +0.6%) for the BEGOS Markets best gainers; weakest is the Swiss (1.0141, -0.3%) followed by Gold (1284.0) and Silver (16.545), both -0.2%; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90% is the Euro (1.18545, "unch"); volatility is moderate. The Bond's (151^31, "unch") 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed flipping Short to give us a Market Rhythm Target (from an entry of 152^07) of 150^20. Personal Income/Spending/PCE due @ 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due @ 06:45 PT.
29 Nov '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper (3.0790, -0.5%) is yet again the BEGOS Markets downside leader, heading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 75%; the other components are mostly either side of "unch" and volatility is moderate. The Bond's (Dec 154^00, -0.3%) 12-hr. Parabolics are flipping to Short: 7 of the past 10 flips have had follow-through of at least 1^19 points ($1,600/cac); as volume in the Bond is moving from Dec into Mar, we look to set a downside Market Rhythm Target (basis Mar) after session's end. Q3 GDP 1st revision: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
28 Nov '17, 04:14 Pacific Time: Further fallout for Copper (3.1010, -1.7%), the red metal leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 132%; volatility is moderate for the balance of the bunch which are little changed, save for Oil (57.58, -0.5%); at Market Values, Oil is some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line, as extreme a distance as there's been year-over-year per the panel's oscillator; at Market Profiles, Oil shows trading support at 57.80, then failing that, at 56.70. The other 4 primary BEGOS Markets are in sync with their Market Value lines. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
27 Nov '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: An active start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (1.1315, -1.3%) leading to the downside and sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 108%; Gold (1293.9, +0.5%) is the firmest component, whilst most docile is the Bond (154^11, "unch"), its EDTR tracing the narrowest at just 37%. The Spoo's (2601.00, "unch") daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, en route to nixing our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal essentially trading in the 1200 "handle" for the past 5 years. New Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
24 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate, led on the upside by Oil (58.80, +1.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 101%; as noted, we expect Oil's daily MACD to confirm a positive crossing by day's end which formally would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 52.61; still, the same study for the Spoo (2601.25, +0.3%) remains negative for the moment, the Target of 2536.75 likely to soon be nixed. Silver (17.030, -0.6%) is the weakest component, followed by Gold (1288.3) and the Bond (154^03), both -0.3%. Early closures from range from 10:15-10:45 PT.
23 Nov '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The "two-day" GLOBEX session for Friday settlement finds mild strength in the EuroCurrencies and weakness in the metals; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil (57.87) is off the most at -0.3%: its daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive, confirm of which shall nix the 52.61 Market Rhythm Target. That study on the Spoo (2597.25, +0.1%) remains just barely negative, the 2536.75 Target thus not yet nixed. Save for Copper (3.1295, -0.2%), the 7 other components all are sporting 21-day linreg uptrends. A Safe and Happy StateSide Thanksgiving to all!
22 Nov '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets are under threat of getting nixed as the daily MACDs, whilst still negative, for both the Spoo (cur 2599.00, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 57.79, tar 52.61), are bending toward positive crossings; Oil (+1.2%) is leading the BEGOS Markets, which otherwise are mildly higher, save for the Bond (153^22, -0.3%) and Copper (3.1250, -0.1%); volatility is mostly moderate, the Spoo being the least rangy of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 29% following yesterday's firm up move. Durables: 05:30 PT; FOMC Minutes (01 Nov): 11:00 PT.
21 Nov '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for the EuroCurrencies are all higher led by Silver (16.965) and Copper (3.1040), both +0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.17400, -0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 64%. The two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows per their negative daily MACDs: the Spoo (cur 2588.50, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 56.56, tar 52.61); the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall, but those for the Spoo in real-time have hitched higher within their downtrend. Existing Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
20 Nov '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.17945, -0.1%) has recovered in full from a gap-down opening to as low as 1.17395, leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 129%; volatility is otherwise moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for the Bond (154^02, "unch") are all in the red; the weakest components are Silver (17.180) and Oil (56.38), both -0.7%. The latter's Market Rhythm Target of 52.61 is still maintained by the negative daily MACD, as by the same study is the Spoo's Target of 2536.75. Q3 Earnings Season is complete, with only 41% of the S&P y-o-y bettered. LEI: 07:00 PT.
17 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place per the respective daily MACDs both of which are negative for the Spoo (cur 2584.50, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 56.23, tar 52.61), the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) falling further for both components.. Save for the Spoo which is barely off, the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is light-to-moderate; Oil is the upside leader +1.4% as well as the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 93%; Silver (17.085, "unch") is the most docile with just a 26% tracing. Housing Starts/Permits at 05:30 PT.
16 Nov '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Silver (17.025), Copper (3.0590) and the Spoo (2572.50) are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, all +0.3%; still, the Spoo's daily MACD continues its negativity, keeping in place our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target. We've a new Target for Oil (Jan 55.45, -0.1%) of 52.61, the daily MACD crossing to negative; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both the Spoo and Oil are working lower. Volatility is mostly moderate, the Spoo being the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%. Philly Fed & Ex/Im Pricing @ 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
15 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2565.25, -0.5%) and Copper (3.0465, +0.2%), the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Silver (17.135, +0.7%). The Spoo is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%, and except for Oil's (55.12, +0.2%) narrow 25% tracing, volatility otherwise is moderate. The Spoo's daily MACD is increasing its negativity in maintaining a Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now are notably cascading; those for Oil also have finally begun to drop. PPI/Retail Sales/NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
14 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility runs the spectrum from light-to-robust, the Euro (1.17480, +0.5%) both the firmest component and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 104%; least rangy is Oil (56.45, -0.5%) with a 31% EDTR tracing, and weakest are both Silver (16.935) and Copper (3.1045) at -0.7%. The Spoo's (2577.25, -0.1%) Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75 remains in place as the daily MACD is still negative; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" in real-time are below the +80% level for the 1st time since 29 Sep; Oil's remain above +80%. PPI due at 05:30 PT.
13 Nov '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Firmest of the BEGOS Markets to start the week is the is the Bond (156^26, +0.4%) which is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo (2574.50, -0.2%), the daily MACD for which continues as negative toward keeping in play our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) in real-time have slipped to +81%, the lowest reading in a month. Silver's (16.885, +0.1%) Target of 17.405 has been nixed, the white metal dropping in Gold's "micro-crash" as depicted in The Gold Update.
10 Nov '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Both the Bond (152^30) and the Spoo (2573.75) are the downside leaders at -0.4%; the Bond also is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 118%; volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. The Spoo's Market Rhythm Target remains 2536.75 per its negative daily MACD, and in real-time the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinked lower (from +90% to +86%); Silver's (17.020, +0.2%) Target of 17.405 is still valid per its positive 12-hr. MACD. At Market Profiles, the Spoo's high volume apices are at 2584, 2578 & 2573. UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
09 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-robust, the Spoo (2581.00, -0.4%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%; the Spoo's daily MACD continues as negative such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75. Less volatile thus far is Silver (17.105, +0.4%) with a 37% tracing: the white metal's 12-hr. MACD is still positive, the 17.405 Target thus still in place. Oil (59.90, +0.1%) is the narrowest of the bunch with just a 34% tracing: Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have not cracked, (nor in real-time have the Spoo's). Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
08 Nov '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our 2 Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: the Spoo (cur 2584.50, tar 2536.75) by its negative daily MACD, and Silver (cur 17.020, tar 17.405) by its positive 12-hr. MACD; the white metal is also up the most (+0.5%) of the BEGOS Markets; the Spoo (-0.1%) is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 57%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. Oil's (56.93, "unch") "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are levitating, but the price surge is slowing. Of the 402 Q3 S&P 500 earnings in, only 180 (45%) are better than 2016's Q3.
07 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (17.005, -1.3%) is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, albeit, due to the white metal's +2.4% rise yesterday, its 12-hr. MACD remains positive, keeping the 17.405 Market Rhythm Target in place; the Spoo's (cur 2588.75, "unch") Target of 2536.75 may get nixed as its daily MACD is just marginally negative. Only Oil (57.30, +0.1%) is higher, but at Market Trends, we're watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" to crack, as they inch a bit lower for the 2nd straight day. Volatility is moderate: rangiest is the Euro (1.15855, -0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%.
06 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Euro (1.16195, -0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are higher in starting the week, from the Bond (154^00, +0.1%) and Spoo (2582.75, +0.1%) up through Copper (3.1470, +1.0%); the red metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%, and volatility across the bunch is moderate. Our Market Rhythm Target for Silver (cur 16.900, tar 17.405) is nearing failing as the 12-hr. MACD is now only barely positive; the Spoo's daily MACD is still negative, keeping that 2536.75 Target alive. The EconData calendar is fairly light this week.
03 Nov '17, 04:41 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted and volatility is light ahead of a rash of EconData. Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: the Spoo (cur 2879.00, +0.1%, tar 2536.75) per its daily MACD, and Silver (cur 17.105, -0.1%, tar 17.405) per its 12-hr. MACD. We're watching, too, for the Bond's (153^14, "unch") 8-hr. Parabolics to flip to Short should 152^28 (pre-08:00 PT) get penetrated, else 152^30 in today's balance, from which the Target would be 1 full point ($1,000/cac) lower. Payrolls and Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) and Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
02 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver's (17.110, -0.2%) 12-hr. MACD confirmed its positive cross yesterday, giving us a Market Rhythm Target (from the 12:00 PT level at 17.105) of 17.405, ($1,500/cac); the Spoo's (2573.00, "unch") daily MACD remains negative, the 2536.75 Target still in place. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Copper (3.1195, -0.6%), whilst firmest is the Swiss (1.0036, +0.4%); rangiest is the Spoo with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; narrowest is Oil (54.22, -0.1%) with a 46% tracing. Q3 Productivity due at 05:30 PT.
01 Nov '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Nov starts with a bang of volatility as 4 of the BEGOS Markets (the 3 metals plus the Spoo [2583.50, +0.4%]) all have exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), strongest being Copper (3.1680, +1.8%) with a 135% tracing; most docile is the Bond (152^07, -0.1%) with just a 33% tracing. Despite the higher Spoo, its daily MACD is still negative, keeping the 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target alive. We're minding Silver's (17.000, +1.7%) 12-hr. MACD as it has provisionally crossed to positive. ADP @ 5:15 PT; ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending @ 07:00 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT.
31 Oct '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oct's final session finds the BEGOS Markets mostly lower, but only mildly so; only Copper (3.1160, +0.2%) and the Spoo (2571.75, +0.1%) are up a tad; volatility again is basically light with most EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings less than 50%, save for Copper's at 76% and the Swiss' (1.0043, -0.4%) at 69%; the Swiss is also the weakest of the bunch. The Spoo's daily MACD continues to be negative such as to keep our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75. Q3 Employment Cost Index: 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI: 06:45 PT; Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT; FOMC Meeting begins.
30 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2572.25, -0.2%) daily MACD remains negative, keeping our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target in place. The BEGOS Markets begin the week mixed and volatility is mostly light: as noted in The Gold Update, typically not much market movement is seen ahead of an FOMC Statement (Wed), albeit tomorrow is month-end. Copper (3.1095) and the Euro (1.16695) are the firmest of the bunch, both +0.2%; the Euro is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%. Weakest is Silver (16.765, -0.6%). Personal Income/Spending due at 05:30 PT.
27 Oct '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1140, -2.0%) is the session's big loser, as well as again the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 122%; the balance of the bunch are mostly lower and volatility is moderate. The Spoo's (2567.75, +0.2%) daily MACD continues its negative track, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75; this present 2568 level shows as a dominant apex on the Market Profile, whilst at Market Values, price looks some 50 points "high". The first peek at Q3 GDP growth is expected to have slowed from 3.1% in Q2 to 2.4%: 'tis due @ 05:30 PT.
26 Oct '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Spoo (2561.25, +0.1%), has furthered its negativity, the 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target in place; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), whilst above +80%, have slipped to +82%: their lowest reading in the past 21 trading days is +78%. The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed either way and volatility is moderate: the Bond (151^12, 0.2%) is firmest and Copper (3.1735, -0.4%) is weakest as well as the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leader at 60%. EuroCurrencies ought be in play. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
25 Oct '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2565.50, "unch") daily MACD confirmed a negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75, ($1,400/cac from this session's open of 2564.75); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have started a mild downside tilt, albeit even in real-time they remain above the +80% level (+88%). The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper (3.1765, -0.7%), which also leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 107%, and the"Baby Blues" look poised to fall. Volatility otherwise is moderate. Durable Orders: 05:30 PT; New Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
24 Oct '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Similar to this time last Thu (19 Oct), the Spoo's (2565.75, +0.1%) daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain nonetheless pasted to the ceiling almost always above +80% these past 5 weeks in still unusually narrow trading, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 11 points vs. 18 a year ago. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate, save for leading Copper (3.2220, +1.2%), its EDTR tracing at 104%. Weakest is the Bond (151^28, -0.4%); least rangy of the bunch is the Euro (1.18025) with a 39% EDTR tracing.
23 Oct '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: As anticipated per The Gold Update, price (1277.3, -0.4%) penetrated the weekly parabolic level of 1277.6, in turn putting that trend Short: the support key now is not to fall beneath "The Box" (1280-1240); the ascent of Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) is running out of puff right on the 0% axis line, rather than continuing a trip to the +80% level, which has been more of their oscillative nature for at least a year. Volatility is moderate to start the week for the BEGOS Markets which are somewhat lower, save for Copper (3.1720), Oil (52.13) and the Spoo (2576.00) all +0.1%.
20 Oct '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The provisional cross of the Spoo's (2566.50, +0.2%) daily MACD failed to confirm as yesterday's dip buyers brought price all the way back from one of the deeper overnight abysses year-to-date. Today, save also for session-leading Copper (3.1955, +0.7%), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Oil (51.02, -1.1%). Rangiest is the Swiss (1.0221, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 151%, and volatility is fairly robust across the board. With 56 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 earnings, just 46% are better y-o-y. Existing Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
19 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2445.00, -0.6%) hit an air pocket 'round midnight PT, exacerbated by Spain's "suspending Catalonia's austerity"; the Spoo leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 198%, and the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, which if confirmed by session's end would yield a Market Rhythm Target 28 points below the next session's open. Volatility is moderate-to-robust across the balance of the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed: weakest is Oil (51.56, -1.3%) and firmest is the Swiss ( 1.0281, +0.5%). Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
18 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are working lower, save for Oil (52.30) and the Spoo (2560.75), both +0.2%; weakest are the Bond (153^13) and all 3 of the metals, -0.4%; the Bond is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; volatility is mostly moderate; as well at the Market Ranges page, note how narrow the EDTR has become for the Spoo, just 10 points: this date a year ago 'twas 20; 'tis a eerily narrow range we're having for an October, normally one of the year's more volatile months. Housing Starts & Building Permits @ 05:30 PT.
17 Oct '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate. The precious metals lead the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 73% for both Silver (17.120, -0.8%) and Gold (1290.6, -0.5%). Firmest is Oil (Dec 52.40, +0.4%), and weakest following yesterday's rocket-shot is Copper (3.2090, -1.0%). We've gone on ad nausea in The Gold Update over the wildly high valuation of the S&P (2557.64), our "live" p/e at a record 45.2x: early as 'tis, of the 11 firms that have reported Q3 earnings, just 5 are up y-o-y: Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT. NAHB: 07:00 PT.
16 Oct '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for Oil (52.18, +1.5%) has provisionally crossed to positive, which upon confirmation shall formally nix our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (or Dec 47.56); the session's real rocket-shot is Copper (3.2190, +2.7%), far and away the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leader at 255%; the other 6 BEGOS Markets are docile, all presently changed by less than 0.2% either way with light-to-moderate volatility. The Gold Update notes the support areas for the PMs having worked, notable for Gold (1307.8, +0.1%) "The Box" (1280-1240). NY Empire comes due at 05:30 PT.
13 Oct '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil (51.59, +1.7%) is again the BEGOS Markets upside leader as well as the rangiest of the components with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 87%; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are sitting just above the 0% axis, and whilst the daily MACD remains negative, such stance may be short-lived as a positive crossing would nix our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (or Dec 47.56 as volume begins rolling into that cac). Otherwise, the balance of the bunch are mildly mixed and volatility is moderate. CPI/Retail Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment/BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
12 Oct '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the FOMC Minutes having passed and a bevy of week-ending EconData on the table. The largest change at present is by Oil (50.51, -1.0%), for which in real-time the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as anticipated are poised to go sub-0%, along with the daily MACD remaining negative, the Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (Dec 47.56) in place. Firmest are all 3 metals, led by Copper (3.1155, +0.7%), the red metal also being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 70%. Volatility again is moderate. PPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
11 Oct '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil (51.28, +0.7%) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader, yet the daily MACD is still negative, the 47.26 Market Rhythm Target being maintained; however, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) whilst lower have slowed their rate of descent. Similar to yesterday, most of the components are higher, the rangiest again being the Euro (1.18620, +0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 66%; volatility is moderate. The "Baby Blues" continue their curling higher for the PMs as well as for the EuroCurrencies. FOMC Minutes from the 19-20 Sep meeting come due at 11:00 PT.
10 Oct '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (152^03, -0.1%), the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently higher, led by Oil (50.22, +1.3%), the daily MACD for which remains negative, keeping our Market Rhythm Target in place for 47.26; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their descent, looking to cross sub-0% going into tomorrow. The same study for the PMs is curling higher for both Gold (1293.2, +0.5%) and Silver (17.185, +1.1%), the latter also 2nd in the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 80%; volatility is moderate. Still, the Spoo (2546.75, +0.1%) remains firm.
09 Oct '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: Oil (49.37, +0.2%) remains on track for our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 as the daily MACD stays negative; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering their fall. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate; the PMs are the upside leaders with Silver (16.960, +0.7%), the white metal also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 89%, and Gold (1285.4, +0.5%); The Gold Update describes how the yellow metal benefits in major stock market crashes. No EconBaro metrics until Thu. Q3 Earnings Season commences.
06 Oct '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: With the exception of Oil (50.22, -1.0%), the BEGOS Markets are barely changed and volatility is very light ahead of the hurricane-effected jobs report. Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their fall and the daily MACD is increasingly negative, the Market Rhythm Target remaining in place at 47.26. The Spoo (2549.25, "unch") is beyond extremely overbought by our triumvirate of textbook measures, (BollBands, Stochs, RSI): the 43.5x "live" p/e of the S&P (2552.07) is at the high from which the "dot.com" crash occurred. Payroll data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
05 Oct '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil's (50.06, +0.3%) daily MACD furthers its negative cross, maintaining our new Market Rhythm Target of 47.26, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) further falling in favour of lower prices; we're wary of the lower 49s showing some support for price, yet 'twould then appear to have room to accelerate lower sub-48.50. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility at best moderate, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being led by upside leader Copper (2.9790, +0.8%) at 64%; weakest of the bunch is the Swiss (1.0279, -0.3%). Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
04 Oct '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for Oil (50.26, +0.2%) confirmed its negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target (as measured from the session's open of 50.16) of 47.26; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are continuing to descend. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, save for Copper (2.9555) and the Spoo (2531.25), both -0.1%; volatility is again light-to-moderate, with Silver (16.830, +1.1%) the firmest component and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 72%; the Spoo sports the narrowest tracing at just 29%. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
03 Oct '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's (50.48, -0.2%) daily MACD provisionally is crossing to negative: should this confirm, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 2.90 points ($2,900/cac) lower; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for Oil already have crested and are falling. The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (152^09, -0.2%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Copper (2.9575, +0.4%) is the firmest of the bunch: the red metal's 21-day linreg trend and "Baby Blues" as they begin their ascent appear the mirror opposite of those for Oil.
02 Oct '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets kick off Q4 mostly to the downside, save for Copper (2.9575, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2519.50, +0.1%); weakest and rangiest is Oil (50.72, -1.8%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 99%; volatility is moderate across the board. The Spoo's daily MACD has pulled higher away from a negative cross, whilst the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have steadied following a week of mild decline. The Gold Update sites price (1276.6, -0.5%) being in an area of support, but that Octobers often are down months. ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
29 Sep '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The last day of Q3 sees mostly light volatility for the BEGOS Markets which are mildly mixed, Copper (2.9675, -0.4%) being the most changed at present. Again, the S&P (2510.06) looks to close out its narrowest September for which we've data (since 1970); the Spoo's EDTR (see Market Ranges) is a mere 12 points: a year ago today 'twas 23 points; tight as 'tis, only the Spoo (2506.50, +0.1%) along with Oil (51.56, "unch") are in 21-day linreg uptrends, the other 6 of the bunch being in downtrends. Personal Income/Spending & PCE Prices: 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI: 07:00 PT.
28 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2502.75, "unch") "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are slipping for the 4th consecutive day without price actually letting go to the downside; accordingly, the daily MACD has yet to negatively cross; at Market Ranges, the Spoo of late shows as the least rangy of the BEGOS Markets towards recording its narrowest September since at least 1970. This session's volatility for the bunch is moderate-to-robust, the EDTR tracings lead by the Bond (152^12, -0.4%) at 104% and Oil, the firmest component, (52.68, +1.2%) at 96%. Final revision to Q2 GDP: 05:30 PT.
27 Sep '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (153^18, -0.7%) is both the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 147%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise moderate, the firmest component being Copper (2.9465, +0.9%). The daily MACD for the Spoo (2499.50, +0.2%) has yet to make the anticipated negative cross: a glance also at our Market Profiles page shows how comparatively tight is the Spoo's range of late: again, the S&P (2496.84) is on pace for its narrowest September in at least 47 years. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Sep '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Mildly mixed are the BEGOS Markets and volatility is moderate; Gold (1307.0, -0.5%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 89%, followed by Silver (17.075, -0.8%) at 84%. The Spoo's (2495.75, -0.1%) daily MACD appears on track to cross negatively before the week is out: as listed on our Market Rhythms page, confirmation of said cross would give us a Target of 28 points ($1,400/cac) lower; also the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are breaking down after a full week of having crawled across the ceiling. Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
25 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mildly lower, save for Oil (50.94, +0.6%) and the Bond ( 154^21, +0.2%); volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the skirmish of Gold (1297.5, -0.2%) and Silver (16.975, -0.4%) having reaching their "price-bunching" support areas respectively 'round 1300 and 17.00 vs. the declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends); it also cites with a variety of bullet points the prudence for being out of the stock market, including this being the narrowest September trading range for the S&P (2502) in at least 47 years (going as far back as 1970).
22 Sep '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The PMs show firming 'round their "price-bunching" support areas of 1300 for Gold (1298.8, +0.3%) and 17.00 for Silver (17.035, +0.2%); for both metals, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have dropped to their respective 0% axes, discreetly suggestive that the selling these past 2 weeks is but half over: thus 'tis a battle between support holding and momentum driving prices lower. Volatility is mostly moderate across the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with no one component presently changed either way by more than 0.5%, save for Oil (50.43, -0.6%).
21 Sep '17, 04:34 Pacific Time: In a reverse from this time yesterday, post-Fed all 8 BEGOS Markets presently are lower. The PMs have arrived at the "price-bunching" support areas of 1300 for Gold (1295.5, -0.7%) and 17.00 for Silver (16.975, -1.4%); note at Market Trends that the "Baby Blues" for both PMs continue to fall such that we expect some hem 'n haw prior to prices then springing back up from here. Volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver being the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%, and the Bond (153^23, -0.1%) the least so at 28%. Philly Fed comes due at 05:30 PT.
20 Sep '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets presently are higher, ranging from both the Euro (1.20620, +0.1%) and the Spoo (2505.50, +0.1%) to Oil (50.52, +0.5%); volatility is light. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering their descent for both Gold (1318.0, +0.3%) and Silver (17.395, +0.2%); the daily Price Oscillators for these two PMs are nearing crosses to negative; at Market Values, the yellow metal has unwound most of its "high" excess above the smooth valuation line, and appears "low" at Market Magnets. Existing Homes @ 07:00 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT; Yellen @ 11:30 PT.
19 Sep '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed with volatility light-to-moderate. Firmest is Oil (50.76, +0.8%) and weakest is Silver (17.215, -0.2%). The Euro (1.20485, +0.3%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 64%, with Gold (1311.7, +0.1%) the most docile at just a 25% tracing. At Market Trends, the PMs' "Baby Blues" are accelerating their descents with prices approaching the "bunching" areas of 1300 for Gold and 17.00 for Silver. Housing Starts & Building Permits, Ex/Im Pricing and Q2 Current Account data all come due at 05:30 PT.
18 Sep '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: A quiet and mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, volatility running light-to-moderate; only one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.4%, that being Copper (2.9725, +0.8%); weakest are both Oil (49.63, -0.4%) and Gold (1318.5, -0.4%); the latter, (as re-emphasized in The Gold Update), looks to benefit from "price-bunching" support 'round the 1300 level, from which the ascent to Base Camp 1377 can commence; similarly for Silver (17.570, -0.3%), we're looking to the 17.00 area for "price-bunching" support. NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
15 Sep '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: One may consider the BEGOS Markets as relatively docile given today's geo-political issues of another NorK missile fired over Hokkaido and a device detonation on London's Underground at Parsons Green: volatility is moderate, the rangiest of the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being 78% for Gold (1328.0), which is actually -0.4%. Weakest of the bunch is Silver (17.765, -0.5%); firmest are Oil (49.93) and the Swiss (1.0416), both +0.4%. Cac volume on the EuroCurrencies is rolling into Dec. Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtl @ 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
14 Sep '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time finally have cracked for both Gold (1327.5, "unch") and Silver (17.775, -0.3%): when this occurred some 3 weeks back, the PMs nonetheless worked higher still, firm evidence that their getting a bid was continuing; expectant now of at least a bit more downside, we again cite "price-clustering" support 'round 1300 for the yellow metal and 17.00 for the white metal. On balance, the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by yet again by Copper (2.9385, -1.5%); up the most is Oil (49.79, +1.0%). Volatility is light-to-moderate. CPI due @ 05:30 PT.
13 Sep '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9890, -1.7%) is again the both weakest of the BEGOS Markets and the rangiest as well with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 106%; volatility for the other components (most of which are mildly higher) is light-to-moderate; only the Spoo (2490.25, -0.2%) joins Copper in the red. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both Gold (1337.9, +0.1%) and Silver (17.990, +0.1%) remain high despite the PMs' prices pullback this week; at Market Values, Gold remains 50 points high above its valuation line. PPI: 05:30 PT; Treasury Budget due @ 11:00 PT.
12 Sep '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for Oil (48.21, +0.2%) and the Spoo (2490.00, +0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are working lower, led by Copper (3.0345, -1.2%); the red metal is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 85%; volatility for the balance of the bunch also is moderate. Gold (1328.0, -0.3%) has largely given up its NorK nuke test gains, the yellow metal typically returning to pre-geo-political event levels: since Friday's highs, Gold has given back 2.6% and Silver (17.840, -0.1%) similarly 2.8%. We expect the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends") for the PMs are about to break down.
11 Sep '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Those BEGOS Markets which recently had gap openings on NorK news have so again done, but this time in opposite directions, the Spoo (2472.75, +0.5%) getting the bid whilst Gold (1340.8, -0.8%) and the Bond (156^21, -0.5%) bear the gapping brunt along with the EuroCurrencies. Volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update supports the yellow metal having risen of late due to natural disasters, the passing of which also lends to these lower levels; our report also notes "price-bunching" support for Gold 'round 1300, and the same for Silver (17.865, -0.9%) 'round 17.00.
08 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've a view to the Spoo (2455.75, -0.4%) breaking down to at least the 2450 level today, the usual safe havens getting a bid in working into a weekend of uncertainty on the hurricane and geo-political fronts. Copper (3.0965, -1.7%) is the BEGOS Markets big loser, leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings as well at 161%. The Swiss (1.0580, +0.5%) and PMs are presently the winners, Silver (18.270) and Gold (1359.3) both +0.4%; the latter is now within 20 points of "Base Camp 1377" which was 2016's high trade. Wholesale Inventories: 07:00 PT; Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
07 Sep '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0505, +0.4%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%; otherwise, volatility is moderate; the Euro (1.19840, +0.5%) is the firmest component, whilst weakest is Copper (3.1330, -0.8%): this is the 2nd straight session for the red metal's making a "lower high" such that we're watching the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) -- 93% in real-time -- to work lower; similarly we're sensing same to occur for both Gold (1343.8, +0.4%) and Silver (17.965, +0.1%). ECB: 04:45; Draghi, plus Q2(Rev) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: 05:30 PT.
06 Sep '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly-mixed with volatility running light-to-moderate; firmest is Oil (48.91, +0.6%) whilst weakest are both Gold (1343.2) and the Bond (157^01), both -0.1%; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is Copper (3.1380, 0.4%) at 60%, with both the Spoo (2460.00, "unch" ) and Swiss (1.0476 "unch" least rangy with 34% tracings. Gold is in the price thicket formed sub-"Base Camp 1377"; mind the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for them again to crack from the current 82% level. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; Fed Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
05 Sep '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue session continues, BEGOS Markets volatility mostly moderate, save for Copper (3.1695, +1.4%) which has widened its leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to 131%; the red metal is also up the most of the components, all of which are higher except for the Spoo (2467.50, -0.3%). Gold (1334.9, -0.4%) is 10 points off its session high of 1345.5, the NorK news now fairly digested; as noted herein (01 Sep) as well as in The Gold Update, the yellow metal is "high" vis-à-vis our Market Values page, now in real-time by some 61 points. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
04 Sep '17, 04:40 Pacific Time: We've up gap openings in this Sun-Tue session for most of the BEGOS Markets, save notably for the Spoo (2466.25, -0.3%) after the NorK nuclear device test. Firmest is Gold (1340.4, +0.8%), settling Fri at 1329.9, opening Sun at 1339.7, (high 1345.5); also +0.8% is Copper (3.1460), the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 127%; narrowest is Oil (47.35, "unch") with a 29% tracing. As noted in The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) turning back higher rather than falling has been supportive of price's near-term strength.
01 Sep '17, 04:42 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light and the components little changed ahead of a raft of data for the EconBaro and a StateSide get-away for its Labor Day Weekend, (GLOBEX Sun 15:00 PT opening per usual, Mon halt from 10:00-15:00 PT). The Euro's (1.19260) negative MACD cross did not confirm. Gold's (1324.0) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have moved back above +80% and Silver's (17.605) ratchet higher as well; again per Market Values, Gold appears some 50 points "high". Payroll data: 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Aug '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.18605) daily MACD is provisionally crossing negative; confirmation by day's end would give us a Market Rhythm Target of .00880 ($1,100/cac) points lower from the next session opening price. 5 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Copper (3.1155, +0.9%), Oil (46.17, +0.4%) and the Spoo (2463.00, +0.3%); Copper is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%, and volatility across the board is moderate. Personal Inc/Spd & PCE due at 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT; Pending Homes due at 07:00 PT.
30 Aug '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility is light-to-moderate. Cac volume has moved into Dec for both Copper (3.0985) & Silver (17.510), and looks to so do for the Bond (Sep 157^04, Dec 155^28) come tomorrow: that should pull the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) from running across their ceiling as they've been doing for better than a week. At Market Values, Gold (1316.0) is nearly 50 points above its smooth valuation line, that level having seen price peaks from a year ago-to-date, albeit Gold is firmer these days. ADP data: 05:15 PT; Q2 GDP (2nd Est): 05:30 PT.
29 Aug '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Response to the NorK missile firing over Japan sufficiently gapped the BEGOS Markets at the 15:00 PT opening such as to see some full day ranges traced in a matter of minutes. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, presently led by the Swiss (1.0605, +1.2%); weakest is the Spoo (2429.50, -0.6%). The EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of the EuroCurrencies and Bond (157^17) all well exceed 100%. Markets looking as if they'd over-reacted and are now materially retracing their initial legs include the Spoo, the Bond, and Gold (1325.4). Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
28 Aug '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: A quiet start to the week for equities, the Spoo (2441.75) essentially "unch" ahead of 20 incoming EconBaro metrics from Tue through Fri. Strongest is Copper (3.0730, +1.1%) and weakest is Oil (47.46, -0.8%), the latter also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate as well, save for the Bond (156^16, -0.1%) with only a 25% EDTR tracing. The Gold Update again points out the high level of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), how they appear " hanging in air", and now in real-time are turning back up.
25 Aug '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Euro (1.18320, +0.2%) has provisionally whipped back above 50 (scale 0-100), toward nixing our 1.15885 Market Rhythm Target, barring discerned negativity from Jackson Hole. Ahead of doings there, the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher; volatility is light-to-moderate. Firmest are both Silver (17.020, +0.4%) and Copper (3.0490, +0.4%); weakest is the Bond (156^02, "unch"); rangiest is the Euro with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 66%; least is Gold's (1292.4, +0.1%) 28%. Durables: 05:30 PT, Yellen: 07:00 PT; Draghi: 12:00 PT.
24 Aug '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.18060, -0.1%) Market Rhythm Target of 1.15885 may get quickly nixed: the daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0), but just barely, in real-time hooking up to 49.45. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the downside by Silver (16.890, -1.1%), which is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 84%; presently up the most is Copper (2.9980, +0.5%); volatility is light-to-moderate, the least rangy being Oil (48.16, -0.4%), its EDTR tracing just 29%. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) again are marginally lower. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
23 Aug '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: We've a Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (1.80000, +0.2%) of 1.15885, the daily Moneyflow having confirmed as passing sub-50 (scale 100-0). In a reversal from this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, save again for the Spoo (2447.50, -0.3%) and Copper (2.9850, -0.2%): the Spoo's noted Market Magnet gap closed in full given yesterday's robust up session. Firmest are Silver (17.055, +0.4%) and Gold (1294.5, +0.3%): yet, the PMs' "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are again marginally weaker in real-time. Volatility is moderate. New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
22 Aug '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17670, -0.5%) daily Moneyflow provisionally is sub-50 (scale 100-0): if confirmed by day's end, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.01920 ($2,400/cac) lower from the next session's opening level; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are poised to pass sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, save for Copper (2.9980, +0.6%) and the Spoo (2432.00, +0.1%); the price for the latter had been some 30 points below its Market Magnet, (30 points having showing as an extreme deviation in either direction per the 3-month chart). Volatility is moderate.
21 Aug '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Strongest of the BEGOS Markets is Copper (2.9670, +0.1%), the red metal also with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 102%; volatility is otherwise moderate, the narrowest EDTR tracing being 36% for Oil (49.79, -0.2%), which along with the Swiss (1.0362, -0.2%) are the weakest of the bunch. Gold (1293.3, +0.2%) remains firm, albeit we're expecting some pullback this week: The Gold Update refers to the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as "hanging in the air", with support at 1280. Q2 Earnings Season is done: only 48% of S&P 500 cos. improved y-o-y.
18 Aug '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (17.185, +1.0%) is the BEGOS Markets volatility leader with a 121% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the white metal leads the bunch on the upside along with Copper (2.9405, +1.0%); weakest of the group is the Bond (155^28, "unch"). Cac volume for Oil (Sep 47.14) is moving into Oct (47.30). Gold has reached our Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2: up to the lower quartile of the 1300s appears structurally resistive in looking back to last Sep; still a big goal for Gold is to eventually get above "Base Camp 1377" for then a far higher run. UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
17 Aug '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.17120, -0.6%) is rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 110%; otherwise volatility is moderate. Wed's big winner, Copper (2.9445, -0.7%) is presently the big loser; we've only Gold (1290.8, +0.2%) in the black, the yellow metal having made up substantially all of its Mon/Tue loss; Gold's Market Rhythm Target per the positive daily Price Oscillator remains 1301.2, and the once-falling "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are stable in real-time. Philly Fed @ 05:30 PT followed by IndPrd/CapUtl @ 06:15 PT & Leading Indicators @ 07:00 PT.
16 Aug '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9320, +1.8%) is the strong BEGOS Markets leader, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 131%; changes for the balance of the bunch presently are docile either way, with volatility running light-to-moderate. Gold's (1276.4) and Silver's (16.675) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping more noticeably now, both markets near their the mid-point of their 10-day Market Profile supporters respectively at 1274 and 16.50. The Dollar (93.940) over the past 2 days is at its best level in 3 weeks. Housing Starts/Permits @ 05:30 PT; FOMC Minutes (25-26 Jul) @ 11:00 PT.
15 Aug '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Again the PMs are the BEGOS Markets weak links with Silver (16.860, -1.2%) and Gold (1280.0, -0.6%); still, the latter's daily Price Oscillator remains positive, thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 stays in place; versus that, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are just barely starting to drop; those for the session's present leading Spoo (2470.00, +0.2%) have moved further sub-0%. Volatility is moderate, led by Gold's 87% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and NY Empire @ 05:30 PT; BusInvs and NAHB Housing @ 07:00 PT.
14 Aug '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are reversing a portion of their directional moves of last week, all of them presently lower, save for the Spoo (2454.00, +0.5%), its "Baby Blues" nonetheless just crossing negatively in real-time. The PMs are the weakest components, Silver (16.940, -1.0%) and Gold (1285.0, -0.8%); The Gold Update notes that geo-political price moves oft are short-lived; still, our Market Rhythm Target for Gold remains 1301.2 as the daily Price Oscillator is still positive, further supported by the weekly Parabolics having flipped to Long. Volatility is firmly moderate across the board.
11 Aug '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (2434.50) of 2442.75 was met in yesterday's downdraft, the range of which was better than triple the EDTR (see Market Ranges) coming into that day, ('tis now up to 15 from 12); still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have only just reached the 0% level, (i.e. the mid-point of their downside potential). Gold's (1293.1) Target remains 1301.2, albeit getting up through the "Whiny 1290s" is a proven chore. The BEGOS Markets presently are lightly changed either way and volatility is moderate. CPI due @ 05:30 PT.
10 Aug '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2462.00, -0.5%) is nearing its low from yesterday (2459.00) and is sporting the widest of the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 102%; 'tis also the weakest component and its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are increasing their downside pace; our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo is still 2442.75 per the negative daily MACD. However, Oil's (49.90) Target of 47.25 is nixed as the 8-hr. Parabolics swing to Long. Again Silver (17.075, +0.9%) is leading to the upside, back in the 17s. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. PPI due @ 05:30 PT.
09 Aug '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: One might consider yesterday's sharp reversal in the Spoo (2464.50, -0.3%) the "blow-off top", rising price having had defied the declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) and negative daily MACD, from which our Market Rhythm Target remains 2442.75. The other two Targets are still in play for Gold (cur 1274.0, tar 1301.2) and Oil (cur 49.43, tar 47.25). The BEGOS Markets upside leader is Silver (16.625, +1.2%); weakest is the Spoo; rangiest is the Swiss (1.0394, +1.0%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 167%. Q2 Productivity: 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
08 Aug '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets presently are mildly higher, volatility again running light-to-moderate. At our regularly-referred-to Market Ranges page, note how both Gold (1270.0) and the Spoo (2475.50) are at their narrowest EDTRs in at least a year; the Market Rhythm Target for the former is still 1301.2, and for the latter is still 2442.75; that too for Oil (49.52) remains at 47.25. At our Market Trends page, price for the Spoo continues to defy its falling "Baby Blues", whilst those for all eight BEGOS components are either kinking down or accelerating their pace to the downside.
07 Aug '17, 04:34 Pacific Time: Most changed amongst the essentially "unch" BEGOS Markets is Oil (49.09, -0.9%), our Market Rhythm Target of 47.25 being maintained per the Short 8-hr. Parabolics. Rangiest is Copper (2.8880, "unch") with a 107% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing from a spike up and down in the 18:00 PT hour; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update notes how the S&P (2476.83) has defied negative technical signals for some 2 years, however we'll roll with the 2442.75 Target for the Spoo (2473.75) by the falling daily MACD. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
04 Aug '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2474.25) confirmed a negative cross of its daily MACD toward giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2442.75: we view this with respect to the payrolls data still due at 05:30 PT, (along with the Trade Deficit), as an material up day can reverse this signal; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) nonetheless continue to curl lower. Targets as well remain for Gold (cur 1274.9, tar 1301.2) and Oil (cur 48.82, tar 47.25). Well into Q2 Earnings Season, only 51% of the 387 S&P 500 companies so far have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago: Our "live p/e" = 41.1x.
03 Aug '17, 04:43 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in play: Gold (cur 1271.1, tar 1301.2) per the positive daily Price Oscillator and Oil (cur 49.55, tar 47.25) per the Short-disposed 8-hr. Parabolics. The Spoo's (1271.25) daily MACD provisionally has crossed to negative; per the present Market Rhythms page listing, confirmation would give us a target of 28 points lower ($1,400/cac) from the next session's opening level; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are showing further evidence of rolling over. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed; volatility is moderate. Factory Orders & ISM (Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
02 Aug '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. As noted, we're watching the Spoo (2472.50, "unch") for a negative crossing of its daily MACD; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are again mildly lower (from 84% to 83%); those for both the Euro (1.18565, +0.2%) and Gold (1273.0, -0.1%) are looking stretched to the upside, the latter's daily Price Oscillator nonetheless positive, keeping the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 in place. Oil's (49.04, +0.5%) 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short giving us a Target of 47.25. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT.
01 Aug '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: With its daily MACD finally confirmed as negative, the Bond's (153^00) Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 is nixed. That for Gold (cur 1272.3, tar 1301.2) remains in place given the positive daily Price Oscillator. In real-time, the Spoo's (2472.25, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinking lower (live level is 84% vs. yesterday's 85%) and the daily MACD is nearing a negative cross. Silver (16.720, -0.6%) is weakest of the BEGOS Markets, most of which are lower. Volatility is moderate. Personal Inc/Spd/PCE: 05:30 PT; Construction Spending & ISM(Mfg): 07:00 PT.
31 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold's (1274.0) daily Price Oscillator moves higher, the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 still in place; The Gold Update points to having to deal with the top of the 1240-1280 box, followed by "The Whiny 1290s". The Bond's (153^06) Target of 155^08 is mathematically still in play, the daily MACD still not having confirmed the negative cross. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate; mirrored change extremes presently are Oil (49.48, -0.6%) and Copper (2.8960, +0.6%), the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 97%. Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Barring Q2 GDP (05:30 PT) data being sufficiently weak so as to drive the Bond (152^08) higher, the Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 looks to be nixed by day's end, the daily MACD provisionally now negative. Gold's (Dec 1264.4) cac volume now exceeds that for Aug (1257.7); given the still positive daily Price Oscillator, our Target remains 1301.2. The Spoo's (2465.50) daily MACD is en route to crossing negatively next week. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, save like yesterday for the Swiss (1.0339) with a 106% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing.
27 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Bond (153^02) has yet to go negative, thus not yet nixed is the 155^08 Market Rhythm Target; that for Gold (Aug cur 1263.1, tar Dec 1301.2) is supported by the positive daily Price Oscillator; the same study for Silver (16.745) has turned positive for a Target (from 16.640) of 17.040. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and moderately volatile, save for the Swiss (1.0457, -0.9%) which has traced 145% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Euro's (1.17410, -0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to break down. Durable Orders due at 05:30 PT.
26 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Bond's (152^26) daily MACD is trending toward negativity, likely en route to nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 155^08; that for Gold (Aug cur 1246.0, tar Dec 1301.2) is still in play per the daily Price Oscillator. Copper (2.8530, +0.2%) is again volatile, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 182%; for the balance of the bunch volatility is moderate; no one BEGOS Market is up by much, with both Silver (16.375) and Oil (48.27) the weak links -0.6%. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above their 0% axes. New Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Statement: 11:00 PT.
25 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Gold (Aug 1250.5, Dec 1256.8) confirmed as positive; because cac volume will be moving into Dec this week, the Market Rhythm Target basis Dec is 1301.2 (40-point goal from this session's Aug opening of 1255.2 + 6 points of cac premium). The Bond (153^25) is weakening, but with the daily MACD still positive, the 155^08 target is still in play. Copper (2.8065, +2.3%) is the BEGOS Markets big mover with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 232%; weakest is Silver (16.305, -1.0%). Volatility otherwise is moderate. Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
24 Jul '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold's (1256.9) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to positive; if confirmed, a Market Rhythm Target can be set for some 40 points higher (from the next session's opening), which has been achieved in 7 of the last 10 crossings (either higher or lower) per the Market Rhythms page. The Bond's (154^18) target of 155^08 remains in place as the daily MACD is still positive. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, save for Oil (46.08, +1.1%), which is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader. Volatility is essentially moderate. Existing Homes come due at 07:00 PT.
21 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (154^22) has thus far been working toward the Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 per the positive crossover on the daily MACD, supported too by the rising "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). The Euro's (1.16845) daily Moneyflow did not confirm going sub-50, so no signal there, the Baby Blues also still refusing to lose. Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, save for Oil (46.45, -1.0%) and the Spoo (2471.00, -0.1%). Up the most is Copper (2.7420, +1.0%), which is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 105%; otherwise, volatility is moderate.
20 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Bond (153^29) confirmed turning positive, giving us a Market Rhythm Target (from the session's opening level of 153^27) of 155^08. We're watching the Euro's (1.15430) daily Moneyflow to confirm crossing sub-50; as noted (17 Jul), the Euro's "Baby Blues" look due to begin falling; those for the Swiss (1.0468) cracked 2 weeks back. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with Silver (16.147, -0.7%) the weakest, whilst the firmest is Oil (47.49, +0.4%); volatility is running light-to-moderate. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Philly Fed: 05:30; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
19 Jul '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Bond's (153^22) daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 1^13 points ($1,400/cac) higher from the next session's opening; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have started curling up from below their -80% level, also suggestive of a run into the 155 handle. The same study for the PMs has room to run higher for both Gold (1238.9) and Silver (16.175). The BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Oil (46.75, +0.7%); volatility is light-to-moderate. Housing Starts/Building Permits come due at 05:30 PT.
18 Jul '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: We're nixing our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (Cur 1.0519, tar 1.0317) as the daily Parabolics swiftly reverse from Short to Long; the Swiss is +0.9% and is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with a 158% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Only stronger is Oil (Aug 46.48, +1.0%), the cac volume for which is moving into Sep (46.70). Gold's (1236.6) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their climbout: we're looking for price to get into the clustering area that we saw some 3 weeks back 'round 1250. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT; NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
17 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold's (1231.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) finally are beginning their climb out: per the current Gold Update, we expect to see 1250 on this run; that noted, we are keeping the Swiss (1.0439) Market Rhythm Target of 1.0317 given the Short stance of the daily Parabolics; the Swiss' Baby Blues are declining and those for the Euro (1.15030) look poised to crack. The mixed BEGOS Markets are showing light-to-moderate volatility, Copper (2.7155, +0.8%) being the exception with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 115%. NY Empire Index comes due at 05:30 PT.
14 Jul '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are presently up, save for the Spoo (2444.25, -0.1%) and the Swiss (1.0358, -0.3%); the latter's Market Rhythm Target remains in play for 1.0317. Volatility is moderate. Gold (1220.8) has been firming throughout the week, but the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have barely budged up, (-83% in real-time); at Market Values, Gold is 31 points below its smooth valuation line. Our Earnings Season page is now updating as in roll Q2 results. Retail Sales and CPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; BusInvs and UofM: 07:00 PT. Vive la France!
13 Jul '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.14155, -0.3%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 106%; Oil (45.11) is the weak link, -0.8%, the balance of the bunch either side of "unch". Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0393, tar 1.0317) remains intact, the daily Parabolics still Short. The Spoo's (2443.00) daily MACD is poised to cross positively, but we shan't set a Long target there. Gold's (1221.1) "Baby Blues" in real-time at -85% are showing just the mildest curl higher. PPI comes due @ 05:30 PT; Yellen/Senate @ 07:00 PT.
12 Jul '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: We're nixing one of the two Market Rhythm Targets for the Swiss (cur 1.0433, tar 1.0299), keeping the 1.0317 (daily Parabolics). The BEGOS Markets are either side of "unch" save for Copper (2.6910, +0.6%), which also sports the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 62%; otherwise, volatility mostly is light. Gold (1216.6) is up for the 3rd straight session, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain flat on their floor; those for Silver (15.800) also are flatlining, (but not below the -80% level). Yellen: Transcript @ 05:30 PT, House @ 07:00 PT; Fed Tan Tome @ 11:00 PT.
11 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly in the red, save for Oil (43.94), which is more so at -1.4%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 77%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold's (1209.9) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to curl up. Two Market Rhythm Targets have triggered for the Swiss (1.0371), but from higher entries - daily Parabolics: entry 1.0397, tar 1.0317; and 12-hr. Price Oscillator: entry 1.0387, tar 1.0299; the Swiss' Baby Blues have notably kinked lower in real-time, (but not from above the preferred +80%). Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
10 Jul '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (15.245, -2.0%) again leads the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 134%, the white metal also the weakest of the bunch, followed by Oil (43.75, -1.3%). Only the Bond (152^05, +0.2%) and Spoo (2423.25, "unch") are not in the red, yet the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are lower still; but those for Gold (1207.8, -0.3%) in real-time are barely curling higher: the yellow metal shows Market Profile resistance at 1210, a close above which may be considered for higher prices ahead. See The Gold Update for Gold vs. M2. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
07 Jul '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Silver (15.830, -1.2%) was "fat-fingered" and/or "flash-crashed" at 16:06 PT yesterday, falling 11% on 4,954 cacs trading within 60 seconds, recovering the bulk of its loss within a few minutes; (at that time of day, only a handful of cacs typically trade per minute). The BEGOS Markets are all presently lower, save for the Spoo (2409.50, "unch"), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) working lower still; those for Gold (1221.5, -0.3%) have yet to curl upwards. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0432, tar 1.0276) has been nixed. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
06 Jul '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2419.50, -0.4%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%, whilst weakest are both the Bond (152^23, -0.5%) and Silver (15.975, -0.5%); firmest is Oil (45.87, +0.6%). We've a Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0409, tar 1.0276) as the 8-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed negative from 1.0420. Gold's (1223.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) seem settling in the -86% area, the recent low being 1216.5; we're watching for the Blues to curl upward. ADP due @ 05:15 PT; Trade Deficit due @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
05 Jul '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues, Gold (1221.8) a tad weaker but still the BEGOS Markets leader +0.2%. Oil (46.42) has come off the boil, now -1.3%, the weakest of the bunch. Rangiest now is the Swiss (1.0394, -0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 121%. The Bond (153^01), Gold and Silver (15.970) are fairly buried at the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles, the "Baby Blues" also being quite low for the PMs, but for the Bond only just crossing the 0% axis in real-time suggestive of still lower levels. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT; FOMC Mins (14 Jun): 11:00 PT.
04 Jul '17, 05:38 Pacific Time: Stateside physical bourses are closed for Independence Day, but the two-day GLOBEX trading session carries on, with a trading halt later today from from 10:00-15:00 PT. Volatility is nonetheless moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the Bond (153^07, +0.2%) being the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 80%. Gold (1224.0) has fallen from its 1240-1280 box, yet is the firmest of the bunch, +0.4%; Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have fallen below their -80% level; once they begin curling upward will oft herald the start of a tradable uptrend.
03 Ju1 '17, 07:46 Central Euro Time: All of the BEGOS Markets presently are mildly lower, save for the Spoo (2426.75, +0.2%) with an abbreviated StateSide equities session today. Weakest are the Bond (153^10), Gold (1237.8), and Oil (46.18), all -0.3%; the latter has crossed back up into the 46s as was suggested by the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling higher. The Bond is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 57%, followed by Copper's (2.7030) 55% tracing and Gold's 52% tracing. The ISM(Mfg) Index and Construction Spending both come due at 16:00 CET.
30 Jun '17, 08:25 Central Euro Time: The Spoo's (2421.00, "unch") trading range yesterday of 43 points was the widest since 09 Nov '16 (138 points); the day's net loss of -21 points was the worst since 17 May (-41 points); still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are only just now crossing sub-0% in real-time, suggestive of lower levels in the days/weeks ahead, (albeit the Spoo has defied negative technicals time and again). Save for Oil (45.20, +0.7%), the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Pers Inc/Spd/PCE: 14:30 CET; Chi PMI: 15:45 CET.
29 Jun '17, 08:47 Central Euro Time: Cac vol for Silver (Jul 16.820) is moving into Sep (16.890); 2nd on the upside only to Copper (2.7020, +1.0%), Silver (+0.4%) is having its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) starting to curl higher, suggestive of further push back up into the lower 17s. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with the balance of the components "unch"-to-higher, the Dollar (95.610) hitting lows not seen since early last Oct. The aforementioned upturn in Oil's (44.93) Baby Blues look to lead price back through the 45s and across the 46 threshold. Final Q1 GDP revision at 14:30 CET.
28 Jun '17, 08:51 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's strength in the EuroCurrencies is seeing some follow-through, the Euro (1.14205, +0.3%) back up into the 1.14-handle for the first time since June a year ago. Benefitting too are the PMs, with Silver (16.760) +0.8% and Gold (1251.7) +0.3%. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 69% is the Bond (155^02), presently the weakest component -0.3%. Cac vol is moving in Copper (Jul 2.6505) into Sep (2.6650). Oil's (44.08, +0.8%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun curling to the upside. Pending Home Sales come due at 16:00 CET.
27 Jun '17, 08:58 Central Euro Time: Gold (1251.4) is both the BEGOS Markets upside leader, +0.5%, as well as the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 86%; still, price remains "box-bound" (1240-1280), the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing their fall, as do they for Silver (16.610, +0.3%). Presently, all components are higher, save for the Spoo (2435.25, "unch"): our "live" p/e for the S&P (2439.07) is 35.1x. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs for the EuroCurrencies and the Bond (157^02, +0.1%) are their narrowest in a year. Consumer Confidence comes due at 16:00 CET.
26 Jun '17, 08:37 Central Euro Time: Starting the week higher are Oil (43.46, +0.7%), the Spoo (2437.75, +0.2%), and Copper (2.6280, +0.1%), the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets presently lower, the weakest being Gold (1254.5, -0.3%); the Gold Update assesses the yellow metal's being docked in a box, i.e. the seemingly inescapable 1240-1280 zone. Volatility amongst the components is running light-to-moderate. The trading range for the Spoo was almost identical for the past three days from last week, (between 2428 and 2440): 'tis approximating same thus far today. Durables: 14:30 CET.
23 Jun '17, 11:21 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.6395) is the BEGOS Markets leader, +1.8%, with a robust EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 131%; 2nd is Silver (16.715), +1.2% with an 84% tracing; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way, with light-to-moderate volatility. Gold (1257.7) continues to work up from the base of its 1240-1280 resistance zone, the session high of 1258.9 being but 1 point from the zone's center: should the Market Profile level of 1256 be supportive, the next resistor is 1269; still, mind Gold's declining "Baby Blues", (see Market Trends). New Homes: 16:00 CET.
22 Jun '17, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The PMs are leading the pack, with Silver (16.580) presently +1.0%, followed by Gold (1253.7), +0.5%. Copper (2.5775) is both the weakest (-0.7%) and rangiest of the BEGOS bunch, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%. With Gold trading as low yesterday at 1241.7, we've the early appearance 'twas the test of the lower end of the 1240-1280 resistance zone, given the bounce we're seeing today; also, this session's low thus far (1246.4) is essentially at the Market Profile support level of 1247; but the resistor at 1256 has held as the high.
21 Jun '17, 08:37 Central Euro Time: A fairly muted start across the BEGOS Markets both by present change and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings. In the last session, the PMs traded down to their lowest levels in just over a month, Gold (1246.8) reaching near the bottom of its 1240-1280 resistance zone by going sub-1243. The Spoo's (2433.00) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning to roll over just a bit, (albeit not from above the preferred +80% level); that noted, the only component showing any upside strength by that same measure is the Bond (156^11). Existing Home Sales due at 16:00 CET.
20 Jun '17, 11:02 Central Euro Time: Silver (16.565) and Oil (44.56) are presently the BEGOS Markets leaders, +0.6% and +0.5% respectively; weakest is Copper (2.5795, -0.4%); save for the red metal, Bond (155^24) and Spoo (2448.25), the other 5 components are fairly buried around the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles. Copper, Gold (1249.4) and the Euro (1.12105) have joined Oil and Silver with negative 21-day linreg trends, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time going sub-0%. The "live" p/e of the S&P (2453.46) remains extremely high at 35.3x. Q1 Current Account: 14:30 CET.
19 Jun '17, 12:42 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.5890) starts the week firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the red metal +0.7% and covering an EDTR (see Market ranges) tracing of 77%, the widest of the bunch. The PMs are the weak links, both Gold (1252.5) and Silver (16.640) -0.2%; the white metal is the 2nd of the components, (after Oil [45.12]), to see its 21-day linreg trend turn negative. The Gold Update points to several near-term textbook technical studies moving into negativity such that we may see the yellow metal test the lower boundary of the 1240-1280 resistance zone. 'Tis a quiet incoming data week.
16 Jun '17, 09:41 Central Euro Time: The cac volume for the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Jun into Sep, as it is too for Oil from Jul (44.63) into Aug (44.87). Save for Oil, which is +0.9%, the balance of the BEGOS bunch presently are little changed either way, and volatility is essentially light all 'round. Oil remains the only component with a negative 21-day linreg trend, however several of the other markets are nearing that tipping point. The ongoing divergence between the rising S&P (2432) and falling EconBaro has been in play now for some 2 months. Housing/Permits @ 14:30 CET; UofM @ 16:00 CET.
15 Jun '17, 07:55 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Copper (2.5770) up the most at +0.5% and leading the EDTR (see Market ranges) tracings at 102%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise light-to-moderate; weakest is the Spoo (2429.75, -0.2%). Oil (44.69) is down to its lowest level since 05 May. Both Gold (1264.7) and Silver (16.970) have moved below their dominant Market Profile supports of 1269 and 17.20 respectively. 8 incoming data metrics from 14:30-16:00 CET include the Philly Fed, NY Empire Index, Ex/In Pricing, IndProd/CapUtil, and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 Jun '17, 08:25 Central Euro Time: The PMs are leading the otherwise mostly "unch" BEGOS Markets, with Silver (16.880, +0.4%) and Gold (1270.8, +0.2%). As noted, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling for all of the components, save for those (as yet) of the Spoo (2436). At Market Ranges, the Bond's (154^02) EDTR is at about its narrowest (29/32nds) in at least a year, albeit that ought likely get traced by better than 100% on the FOMC statement today at 20:00 CET. Prior to that, we've EconBaro data on both Retail Sales and the CPI at 14:30 CET, followed by Business Inventories at 16:00 CET.
13 Jun '17, 17:22 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.5915) and Silver (16.790) are the weak links thus far, both -0.9%, with the Spoo (2431.75, +0.2%) leading to the upside; that noted, we're watching for the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) to begin running out of puff should price not soon make a run to the recent all-time high (2443). In fact, save for Oil (45.69) for which as noted is the only BEGOS Market already in a negative 21-day linreg downtrend, the Baby Blues for all 8 components are dropping. The PPI came in flat for May, albeit the core rate went +0.3%. The FOMC statement is due tomorrow.
12 Jun '17, 10:50 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mildly mixed on volatility that is light-to-moderate at best. Gold (1270.7) is +0.1%: The Gold Update points to price having traded last week to a marginal new high for the year (1298), en route flipping the weekly parabolic trend from Short to Long; however in real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their fall for both Gold and Silver (17.155, -0.2%). Oil's (45.96, +0.1%) 21-day linreg downtrend has steepened; such trend for the other 7 components remains up. No scheduled incoming data today for the EconBaro.
09 Jun '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are mixed and volatility moderate. The Spoo's (Jun 2434.25) cac volume is rolling into Sep (2431.75). As tied together as they've been of late, opposed today are Silver (17.330, -0.5%) and Copper (2.6260, +0.4%). In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over downward for Silver, Gold (1276.1), the EuroCurrencies and the Bond (154^05). Oil's (45.70) 21-day linreg trend is now down, the first to break the stance of all 8 components' trends having been up. The quiet data weeks ends with Wholesale Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 Jun '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.5790, +1.0%) the firmest of the bunch and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 107%. The balance of the components are lower, save for Silver (17.630, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2435.25, +0.1%). As anticipated, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies are now kinking lower in real-time; specific to the Swiss, (1.0351, -0.2%), its daily Parabolics would flip Short at 1.0295 (today) or about 1.0314 (tomorrow). ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT; UK voting results: from 14:00 PT onward.
07 Jun '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Save barely for the Spoo (2431.50, +0.1%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets presently are in the red, led by the Euro (1.12110, -0.7%), arguably as Banco Popular is "rescued" by Santander, the Dollar (96.910) getting the bid. With the exception of the Euro tracing 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), volatility otherwise is moderate. We'll be watching for the high levels of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) over the next few sessions to crack for both the Euro and Swiss (1.0345); Those for Silver (17.605) appear "toppy" as well. Consumer Credit due at 12:00 PT.
06 Jun '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Gold (1294.4, +1.0%) is breaking out above both the 1240-1280 resistance zone and weekly Parabolics flip level of 1285. It is presently up the most of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver (17.665, +0.7%). Of note, the yellow metal's high for the year is 1297.4, whilst the white metal's is 18.700. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, with the weakest of the bunch Copper (2.5190, -1.6%) also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 114%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating downward for both the red metal and Oil (47.26, -0.3%).
05 Jun '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, all of which, save for the PMs, are presently lower. Copper (2.5490, -1.1%) is both the downside leader and the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 79%. Gold (1283.1, +0.1%) has come very near flipping its weekly Parabolics to Long, the session's high of 1284.7 only 2 pips from the trigger price of 1284.9 (see The Gold Update). The Spoo (1234.00, -0.1%) is running some 50 points high per our Market Values page. Productivity (Q1 Revised) at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders & ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Jun '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the hard commodities lower and the financials higher. Weakest is Oil (47.19, -1.7%), our Market Rhythm Target (53.34) having confirmed as failed with the daily Price Oscillator now negative: Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over, the first of those for the 8 Markets for which all the Blues had been rising for at least the past 2 weeks. Firmest is the Spoo (2435.75, +0.3%). Volatility is light-to-robust, from the Swiss' (1.0304) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 21% to Copper's (2.5330) 131%. Payrolls & Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT.
01 Jun '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 48.40, tar 53.34) looks to confirm as failed by day's end, the daily Price Oscillator now just barely positive; Oil's rising "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now stalled in real-time. Still, the 21-day linear regression trends for all 8 BEGOS Markets remain up, albeit all 8 prices are lower this session, the weakest component being Silver (17.110, -1.2%), which also is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 120%. ADP @ 05:15 PT; Productivity (Q1 Revised) @ 05:30 PT; Construction Spending/ISM(Mfg) @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Waning as 'tis, Oil's (48.59, -2.1%) daily Price Oscillator is still positive, which keeps the Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 alive, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) higher yet again this session. None of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently changed by more than 0.5% either way, and volatility is moderate. Rangiest is the Swiss (1.0309, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%; the Spoo (2414.25, +0.1%) has the narrowest such tracing at 29%. Incoming data includes the Chi PMI at 06:45 PT, Pending Homes at 07:00, and the Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
30 May '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility picks up as this Sun-Tue session continues, Copper (2.5515, -0.7%) the weakest of the bunch and sporting the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 121%, 2nd rangiest are the EuroCurrencies, their EDTR tracings exceeding 100%. Only the Bond (154^06, +0.1%) is in the black. Oil's (49.64, -0.5%) daily Price Oscillator is still positive toward our maintaining the 53.34 Market Rhythm Target; in spite of last Thursday's price fallout, Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still rising. Pers Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; ConsConf due @ 07:00 PT.
29 May '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: Physical bourses are closed StateSide, in London and in Shanghai, but with GLOBEX running we find the BEGOS Markets trading in this Sun-Tue session, albeit changes are mild and volatility thus far light. The biggest net mover at present is Oil (49.68, -0.4%), still not negative enough to move the daily Price Oscillator into negative ground, thus the Market Rhythm Target is still in play at 53.34. Volume for Gold (Jun 1266.5) is moving into the Aug cac (1269.8). As described in The Gold Update, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are on the rise for all 8 of the BEGOS Components.
26 May '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil's (48.76, +0.1%) daily Price Oscillator is still to the plus side despite price itself taking a hard yet yesterday (from 52.00 to 48.45); technically, the Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 remains in place until either 'tis met or the study confirms as negative, (cash mgt. always being the key overrider). Save for Copper (2.5810, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2410.50, -0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are up and volatility runs from light-to-robust: rangiest is Gold (1267.0, +0.9%) with an EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of 124%; the Spoo's is just 34%. 2nd peek at Q1 GDP and Durables at 05:30 PT.
25 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2408.75, +0.2%) is up for the 6th straight day. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for all 8 BEGOS Markets are rising; that noted, per GLOBEX closes, only 2 of the components are higher, the other being the Swiss (1.0296, +0.1%). Weakest is Oil (50.63, -1.3%), which had been higher until the OPEC call to likely extend cuts 9 more months; "sell the news" or otherwise, Oil's daily Price Oscillator remains positive such that our Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 is maintained. Again, the Euro (1.12195, -0.1%) per our Market Values page still appears excessively high.
24 May '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: Oil's (51.46) daily Price Oscillator continues to rise, albeit price is barely changed, as is the case across all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper (2.5780, -0.8%); Oil's Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 remains in place. Components' volatility is mostly light, again except for Copper which has traced 98% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The EuroCurrencies may be topping out: as was noted in The Gold Update and per our Market Values page, the Euro (1.11995) itself is still 5¢ above its BEGOS Market valuation. Existing Homes due @ 07:00 PT; FOMC 03 May Minutes due @ 11:00 PT.
23 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: As noted, Oil (50.85) is higher over these last 2 weeks, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) only just having crossed above their 0% axis suggesting there's more to run; thus given the confirmation of the daily Price Oscillator having crossed to positive, we've a Market Rhythm Target of 53.34. The Spoo's (2396.25) Baby Blues are in their 9th consecutive day of falling, despite price presently up for the 5th straight session. Save for Copper (2.5835, -0.7%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lightly changed either way and volatility is moderate. New Homes due at 07:00 PT.
22 May '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver (16.960, +0.7%) is both the BEGOS Markets upside leader and top EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer at 105%; the balance of the other components' volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's (51.05) daily Price Oscillator is provisionally crossed to positive: Oil has already had a substantive 2-week up run, yet confirmation of the cross would offer a Market Rhythm Target of 2.30 points ($2,300/cac) higher still from the subsequent session's open. Q1 Earnings Season concluded with 58% of 2,475 companies reporting higher bottom lines, 8% the same, and 34% lower than 2016's Q1.
19 May '17, 04:48 Pacific Time: The volatility in the BEGOS Markets has slowed to a bit more moderate pace than we've seen through much of the week, no one component exceeding 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), and only the Euro (1.11885) being near that level with a 98% tracing. The recent strength in the EuroCurrencies has yet to turn their "Baby Blues" materially higher: rather, their fall has been abated. The Spoo (2369.25) is rising for the 2nd straight day, but its daily MACD has become further negative, our Market Rhythm Target thus remaining at 2331.00. Q1 Earnings Season concludes.
18 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2348.25, -0.3%) confirmed its negative Daily MACD cross, giving us a Market Rhythm Target for 24 points lower as measured from this session's opening (2355.00) of 2331.00, noting that the session's low already has reached down to 2344.50; again the Spoo leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%, followed by Copper (2.4950, -2.0%) at 121%. Silver (16.765) is -0.7%, but Gold (1261.9) is all but "unch", (basis GLOBEX closes). Again, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust. Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
17 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo (2388.50, -0.4%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 137%, followed by Gold (1246.0, +0.7%) with a 108% tracing; oddly, least volatile is Silver (16.910, +0.4%) with only a 42% tracing. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop and the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative. The 12-hour Price Oscillators for both Gold and the Bond (152^04, +0.3%) appear on track to crossing positively in a day or so. The Euro (1.11215, (+0.2%) moving back up to its StateSide pre-election level.
16 May '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2400.00) up move yesterday has kept the daily MACD from crossing negatively; yet in real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling for their 4th straight session; those for both Gold (1233.4) and Silver (16.695) are curling higher. Volatility is robust for the upside-leading EuroCurrencies, the Euro (1.10745) having traced 117% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and the Swiss (1.0121) with a 101% tracing. For the balance of the BEGOS bunch, volatility is at best moderate. Housing Starts/Building Permits due @ 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil due @ 06:15 PT.
15 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil (49.25) is the session's big mover, +3.0%, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 123%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, Silver (16.625) notably +1.0%: The Gold Update cited the white metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having kinked up on Friday; those for Gold (1231.05, +0.3%) are just so doing in real-time; volatility (ex-Oil) is otherwise moderate. The daily MACD for the Spoo (1291.25, +0.1%) still is poised to negatively cross: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 24 points lower. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
12 May '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the range leader being the Spoo (2387.00) with a 50% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); changes are mild, the most presently being Copper (2.5165), +0.4%. The Euro's (1.08935) daily Moneyflow is on its 50 mid-line without a decisive crossover. The Spoo's daily MACD looks poised for a negative cross, barring a renewed upside move. The PMs continue to firm in working to stave off a 4th consecutive down week: mind their "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. Retail Inflation & Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment and BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
11 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are higher across the board, save for the Spoo (2391.50, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate, save for robust Copper (2.5435, +1.9%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 120%. The Euro's (1.08905) daily Moneyflow has yet to confirm a negative cross, albeit the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop, as do those for the Swiss (0.9945) which in real-time are crossing below their 0% axis. The PMs are firming, Gold (1222.5) still some 40+ points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Wholesale Inflation @ 05:30 PT.
10 May '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: As was noted for the Swiss (0.9952), the Euro's (1.08835) "Baby Blues" too have let go sub-80%, suggestive of a move down into the mid-1.07s; the Euro's daily Moneyflow is nearing a cross sub-50, which if confirmed would then give us a Market Rhythm Target of $1,300/cac lower (-0.01040) from the opening of the next session. BEGOS Markets volatility is at best barely moderate, with Silver (16.305, +0.7%) the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%; narrowest is Oil (46.32, +0.3%) with a 31% tracing. Ex/Im pricing @ 05:30 PT.
09 May '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate, rangiest being the Swiss (1.0000) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; powered by yesterday's down-sweep, the Swiss' "Baby Blues" in real-time are markedly falling sub-80%, suggestive of lower levels ahead, perhaps a re-test of the 10 April low at 0.9934; the Swiss' 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a negative cross yesterday (12:00 PT) from 1.0040, which per our Market Rhythms page suggests an $1,800/cac drop (-0.0144 points) to 0.9898. Whsl Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 May '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Post-French election, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold (1235.0, +0.5%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 124% in initially dropping -7 at the open before jumping +15; volatile too are Copper (2.4875, -2.0%) in making a year-to-date low, and the EuroCurrencies. The Gold Update suggests that any further lows in this downleg wouldn't be too dear from here (1231, 1211, 1190); by its Market Magnet, Gold appears as at oversold extreme, although more broadly, not so per our Market Values page. 2 weeks still to run in Q1 Earnings Season.
05 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold (1234.0) has slipped as low as 1225.7 since falling back through the entirety of its 1240-1280 resistance zone, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) going sub-0% and the daily Price Oscillator turning negative; (more in tomorrow's Gold Update). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for Oil (45.33, -0.4%) which has traced 167% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly extreme deviation. The session's narrowest component is the Bond (151^25) with just a 39% tracing. Payrolls data: 05:30 PT.
04 May '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Gold (1234.6) has crossed to negative; as we're not big on shorting Gold, we shan't set a Market Rhythm Target, however, 7 of the past 10 crossings of this study (up or down) have traveled at least another 40 points prior to the study's next confirmed cross, (the inference being from this session's open of 1238.5, we may see 1198.5 over the ensuing days/weeks). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with presently no material changes either way. The Trade Deficit and Q1 Productivity come due at 05:30 PT followed by Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
03 May '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold's (1254.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing sub-0% in real time; Gold's daily Price Oscillator ought cross to negative today should price weaken much more. The BEGOS are quietly mixed on light volatility, save for Copper (2.5735) which is -2.5% and has traced 139% of its EDTR (see Market Trends); Market Profile support shows at 2.5550. The Bond (152^26) per its Profile is sitting on its most dominantly-traded price of the last 10 days, (Market Magnet is 153^04). ADP Jobs: 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; FOMC: 11:00 PT (no press conf); France debate: 12:00 PT.
02 May '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, save for Copper (2.6265, -1.2%) and Oil (49.22, +1.0%); volatility again is light-to-moderate, the red metal leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%, whilst narrowest is the Spoo (2385.50) with only a 24% tracing. Gold's (1256.4) daily Price Oscillator is still just positive, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) look poised to go sub-0% tomorrow; recall this mid-1250s area was the most dominant zone for trading volume per the Market Profile a couple of weeks ago; Profile resistance presently runs from 1265-1268.
01 May '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Silver (17.140) hit our Market Rhythm Target of 17.205; Gold's (1264.1) daily Price Oscillator has not quite slipped to negative, yet should it soon we'd expect to see the lower 1250s, an area which per The Gold Update we'd like to see hold; also therein is pointed out that Gold, now up for 4 straight months, has only made it to 5 (mutually-exclusively) twice in the past 25 years. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; changes are lightly mixed; many non-US bourses are closed for 01 May. Pers Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; Construction Spending/ISM(Mfg) due @ 07:00 PT.
28 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility again is light, save for the EuroCurrencies: the Euro (1.09570, +0.6%) has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and the Swiss (1.0121, +0.3%) 119% of its EDTR. Firmest is Silver (17.425, +0.8%), but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative such as to keep our 17.205 Market Rhythm Target intact; again, the same study for Gold (1268.5) appears headed for a negative cross. The Bond (152^17) and Copper (2.5950) are the weak links, but both just -0.1%. 1st peek at a "weaker than expected" Q1 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT.
27 Apr '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2383.75, +0.1%), the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets all are mildly lower; volatility is light, Gold (1265.9) being the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing over 50% (52%). Gold's "Baby Blues" continue to freely fall as do those for Silver (17.410), the latter's Market Rhythm Target in place for 17.205 per the negative daily Price Oscillator; the same study for Gold is nearing a negative cross. Copper's (2.5975) Baby Blues are curling up, (albeit not from below the -80% level), given some price recovery. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Apr '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold's (1266.7) "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall whilst those for Silver (Jul 17.640) go further sub-0%; the white metal's daily Price Oscillator has confirmed crossing negative for a Market Rhythm Target of 17.205; as Silver's cac volume moves into Jul, so is that for Copper (Jul 2.5885). BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, save again for the Euro (1.09225) which has traced 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); presently, no one component is changed either way by more than 0.4%. The 5 primary BEGOS components are in sync per their Market Values page.
25 Apr '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: As we've been anticipating, Gold's (1272.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Ranges) have at last broken below their +80% level, price now back into the 1240-1280 resistance zone; per Gold's recent Market Profiles, we'd eye 1255 as support; Silver's (17.815) Baby Blues in real-time have crossed below their 0% axis. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate: firmest is Copper (2.5720, +0.7%);weakest are both Gold & Silver, -0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.09055) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 73%. New Homes & Consumer Confidence come due & 07:00 PT.
24 Apr '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: As traders expected, most of the BEGOS Markets gapped open one way or the other post-French 1ère tour voting for president; (2ème tour is Sun, 07 May). Strength is in the EuroCurrencies, weakness is in the Yen (0.90950), Dollar (0.98950), Bond (153^01), and Precious Metals. We are nixing our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0078, tar 0.9849), the daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing above 50 (scale 0-100); the Swiss is also the most volatile of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 150%; 'tis followed by the Euro (1.08855) itself at 124%.
21 Apr '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. At our Market Ranges page, with the exception of Copper (2.5435) and the Spoo (2354.75), the balance of the EDTRs are considerably narrow, a "hint" perhaps that ramped-up event-driven volatility is nearing. The Swiss' (1.0045) measure of daily Moneyflow is still sub-50 (at 48), keeping the Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849 in place. The Bond's (154^07) 12-hr. Parabolics would flip to Short today should price go sub-154; Spoo's daily MACD looking to cross positive. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
20 Apr '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The firming in the Swiss (1.0073) is pushing the daily Moneyflow (cur 47) back up toward the 50 border, putting into jeopardy our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies have been climbing throughout this week; the Euro (1.07735) today has traced 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); otherwise, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes are mixed. Gold's (1280.3) Baby Blues still haven't cracked, but those for Silver (18.170) continue to fall. Philly Fed Index due @ 05:30 PT; then come Leading Indicators @ 07:00 PT.
19 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0074) is rising (now 39, scale 100-0), for which our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849 would remain barring the measure confirming a cross above 50. BEGOS Markets volatility is again moderate with changes presently mixed. Weakest is Gold (1284.3, -0.6%), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) holding at +80%, although those for Silver (18.200, -0.2%) are finally dropping (down at +60% in real-time). The upside leader is Copper (2.5485, +0.8%), yet its own Baby Blues continue to sink; those for Oil (52.95, +0.4%) look poised to roll over.
18 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Copper (2.5520, -1.7%), the red metal again the rangiest with a 93% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Firmest is the Swiss (1.0016, +0.3%), albeit its daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (at 30 on a scale of 100-0) such that our Market Rhythm Target is still in place at 0.9849. Oil's (May 52.24) cac volume is moving into Jun (52.68); 1st notice for delivery is Mon (24 Apr). Anticipated PMs' weakness is kicking in a bit as we mind their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). Housing/Permits: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT.
17 Apr '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9998, tar 0.9849) remains in place as the daily Moneyflow is still sub-50 (cur 26, scale 100-0). The BEGOS Markets on balance are mildly higher, save for Oil (52.69, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2324.75, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper (2.5890) being up the most at +0.7% and also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%. The marginally-higher PMs still show their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends & The Gold Update) as poised to further fall. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
13 Apr '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are slightly lower-to-higher; volatility is moderate. The Euro (1.06690) is off the most, -0.3%; the Swiss' (0.9993, -0.1%) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0) such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849. Up the most is Copper (2.5675, +1.0%), the red metal also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 97%. Gold (1290.2, +0.1%) is atop its 1240-1280 resistance zone. This is the last Globex trading session until Sunday @ 15:00 PT. PPI: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment 07:00 PT. Tomorrow: CPI, Retail Sales & Bus Invs.
12 Apr '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold's (1275.5) surge yesterday was sufficient to pull the daily Moneyflow back above 50 (scale 0-100), leaving the Shorts "deservedly" holding the bag; overnight, price briefly departed above the 1240-1280 resistance zone, and in real-time, the "Baby Blues" have kinked up, albeit those for Silver (18.320) are notched lower. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9960, tar 0.9849) remains in place. Save for Oil (53.63, +0.4%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Copper (2.5785, -1.2%); volatility again is light-to-moderate. Ex/Im pricing due @ 05:30 PT.
11 Apr '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9968) daily Moneyflow remains well-sub-50 (at 16) toward maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849; Gold's (1259.3) daily Moneyflow has confirmed going sub-50, which for the Shorts suggests we'll see 1243.8; Silver's (17.930) daily MACD has provisionally crossed negative. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both PMs are falling such as to also suggest lower price levels near-term; that noted, Gold has scrabbled back above the dominant 1255 Market Profile price. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, all 8 components presently little changed either way.
10 Apr '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Gold Update states the case for Gold (1254.2) to work lower near-term, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now rolling over from the -80% level, as are those for Silver (17.930). As well, Gold's daily Moneyflow is provisionally sub-50, whilst Silver's daily MACD is approaching a negative cross; Gold's Market Profile shows 1255 as the most dominantly-traded price for last 2 weeks. The Swiss' (0.9940) daily Moneyflow is lower still (18), our Market Rhythm Target there still 0.9849. The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, the outlier being Oil (52.63, +0.7%); volatility is light-to-moderate.
07 Apr '17, 04:14 Pacific Time: The Syrian affair effectively has BEGOS Markets volatility running at a robust pace, Gold (1265.2, +0.9%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 168%, followed by Silver (18.395, +0.7%) with a 125% tracing, and then Oil (52.21, +0.9%) at 124%. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (0.9982, -0.1%) is still in place at 0.9849, the daily Moneyflow now down to 23 (scale 100-0). Despite the overnight flight to safety, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time another notch lower; those for Silver are toppy. Payrolls data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
06 Apr '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0007) is lower still (31 on a scale of 100-0), our Market Rhythm Target remaining at 0.9849. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the changes mixed: firmest is Oil (51.31, +1.0%), whilst weakest are both the Bond (151^09) and Silver (18.240) each -0.4%. Rangiest is the Euro (1.07015) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%; narrowest is Copper (2.6770) with a 40% tracing. Gold's (1253.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have just kinked down from the +85% area; similarly, we are watching for same with Silver.
05 Apr '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: Gold's (1255.4) 12-hr. MACD, having crossed back to positive and now back to negative, is so indecisive such that we've nixed the Market Rhythm Target of 1232.6; the Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0003, tar 0.9849) remains in place as the daily Moneyflow continues to sink sub-50. Volatility is fairly light for the BEGOS Markets, 6 of which are little changed, save for Oil (51.58, +0.9%) and Copper (2.6515, +1.2%): the red metal is the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 92%; the rest are all less than 60%. ADP: 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
04 Apr '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Bond's (152^06) rapid up-shot yesterday through the 12-hr. Parabolics nixed our 148^23 Market Rhythm Target; today, Gold's (1259.7) 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed back to positive, which if confirmed come 12:00 PT would as well nix that Target of 1232.6; the Swiss' (1.0014) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50, maintaining the 0.9849 Target. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. Both Silver (18.360) and Oil (50.46) are up the most at +0.4%; weakest is the Euro (1.06835, -0.2%). Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
03 Apr '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets abound: still open are those for the Bond (cur 150^30, tar 148^23) and Gold (cur 1247.4, tar 1232.6); plus as anticipated, both the Euro (1.06915) and Swiss (1.0013) confirmed their daily Moneyflows crossing sub-50, the Swiss (per the Market Rhythms page) having in prior crossings been the more profitable of the 2, so we'll set the Target there at 0.9849, (ideally from the session's open of 1.0017). Save for the Spoo (2359.25, +0.1%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are a bit lower and volatility is mostly light. ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.6565) whipsaw in price yesterday flipped the daily Parabolics to Long, thus nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 2.5935. Gold's (Jun 1244.1) 12-hr. MACD did confirm crossing negative yesterday at 12:00 for a Target (from 1246.6) of 1232.6. The Bond's (150^15) 12-hr. Parabolics remain Short, the Target there still 148^23. The daily Moneyflows on both the Euro (1.07205) and Swiss (1.0038) are crossing sub-50 (scale 100-0) such that they may have Targets in beginning next week. The BEGOS Markets are little changed and narrow. Pers Inc/Spd: 05:30; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT.
30 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The cac volume has moved into Jun for Gold (1253.2); its 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, which if confirmed at 12:00 PT would set a Market Rhythm Target from that time of 14 points lower. Targets remains in place for Copper (cur 2.6635, tar 2.5935) and the Bond (cur 151^12, tar 148^23). The BEGOS Markets on balance are skewed a bit lower, the weakest being Silver (18.170, -0.5%); only the Bond and Swiss (1.0091) are higher, both by +0.1%; volatility is basically light; the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is Copper's 58%. Final Q4 GDP: 05:30 PT.
29 Mar '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^25) 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed their flip to Short (from 150^26) to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 148^23; Copper's (2.6655) daily Parabolics remain Short, our Target there 2.5935. Gold's (1252.0) 12-hr. MACD is nearing a negative crossover, which if confirmed (perhaps in the next day or 2) would then set a Target for 14 points lower. Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets a little changed and volatility mostly is light, save for the Euro (1.08330) which has traced 70% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). "Brexit" begins; Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
28 Mar '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Having being robust, BEGOS Markets volatility has swung to light with changes presently minimal either way, the most being for Oil (48.12, +0.6%); rangiest is Copper (2.6310, -0.2%) with but a 52% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Copper's daily Parabolics have confirmed flipping Long for a Market Rhythm Target (from 2.6375) of 2.5935. We're watching the Bond's (151^18, +0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics, which per the Market Rhythms page would set up a downside target of $2,100/cac (2^04 points) upon confirming a flip to Short. Consumer Confidence due at 07:00 PT.
27 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: A robust start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, led higher by Gold (1256.9, +1.1%) and to the downside by Copper (2.5840, -2.1%); the red metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 121%; 2nd in the tracings is the Spoo (2326.75, -0.7%) at 112%. Despite being lower, Oil's (47.59, -1.1%) "Baby Blues" (see 23 Mar) still appear in early up-curl; price's most recent low was 47.01 on 22 Mar. As cited in The Gold Update, the Euro (1.09075, +0.6%) is at an extreme above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), further exacerbated by today's rise.
24 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate with the components at present little changed either way: up the most is Oil (47.90, +0.5%), whilst equally down the most is Copper (2.6365 -0.5%); rangiest is the Swiss (1.0137, +0.2%) with a 93% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Profiles, both the Bond (150^12) and Gold (1243.8) are just below dominant trading resistors, respectively at 150^22 and 1248.0. At Market Values, the Euro (1.08445) appears at a high extreme vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line. Durable Orders @ 05:30 PT.
23 Mar '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 150^14, tar 150^28) was reached. Gold's (1247.8) daily Price Oscillator has crossed to positive, for which we'd normally set a Target given that study is presently on the Market Rhythms page listing; but with price having entered the 1240-1280 resistance zone, we shan't formally set such Target. The BEGOS Markets are little changed and volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, Oil's (48.40) "Baby Blues" in real-time are now just perceptively curling up, albeit still sub their -80% level. New Home Sales come due @ 07:00 PT.
22 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^13) Market Rhythm Target of 150^28 is within the day's EDTR (see Market Ranges), the high (150^25) already having come close and the 12-hr. Price Oscillator working higher. Yesterday's note on the Spoo's (2341.00) having yet to materially respond to its falling "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) finally saw price crack, the 21-day linreg trend itself only now just rotating from up to down, the Blues in real-time crossing sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are little changed, save for Oil (47.63, -1.1%); volatility is moderate. Existing Home Sales come due @ 07:00 PT.
21 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: We have a fresh Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 148^26, tar 150^28), its 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed as positive at 00:00 PT (midnight) from 148^31. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.08565, +0.6%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 123%. Up the most is Oil (49.26, +0.7%) and weakest is Copper (2.6395, -0.5%). The Spoo's (2374.50, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in their 12th consecutive day of dropping without price having materially let go to the downside. Q4 Current Account: 05:30 PT.
20 Mar '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Oil (48.74, -1.1%) is both the weakest of the bunch and the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 59%; price is just below the dominant Market Profile level of 49.00. Gold (1232.7, +0.3%) is the firmest component. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's nearing entrapment between the rising weekly parabolic Long trend and the 1240-1280 resistance zone; in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked up, whilst those for Silver (17.415, "unch") have, for the present, stalled their fall.
17 Mar '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Again a mostly moderate volatility session for the BEGOS Markets also finds them mostly higher, save for the Euro (1.07870), -0.3%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 64%. The PMs are still firm post FedHike, Gold (1228.3) having reached our "non"-Market Rhythm Target of 1230.5. Oil's (Apr 49.03) cac volume is moving into May (49.52) with 1st notice next Thu (23 Mar). Oil, Gold, Silver (17.370) and the Bond (147^28) have been tracking the same over the past 21 days. IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment/LEI: 07:00 PT.
16 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (147^22, -0.5%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are maintaining their post FedHike gains. Copper (2.6915) is firmest, +0.8%, followed by Oil (49.24, +0.6%) and then the PMs. Rangiest is the Bond with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%, volatility being moderate across the BEGOS spectrum. Gold's (1224.1) 12-hr. MACD produced a positive crossing, but in measuring that from 1216.5, 'tis a bit steep already to set a Market Rhythm Target for 1230.5, especially as 1228.7 has since traded. Housing Starts/Building Permits & Philly Fed all due at 05:30 PT.
15 Mar '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, even though the Dollar (101.435) is only barely lower at -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, both Copper (2.6615) up the most at +0.6% and Gold (1201.0, +0.2%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 60%; least volatile is Silver (16.915, +0.2%) with a 34% tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to fall for the Bond (147^02), Oil (48.73), the Spoo (2368.25) and the PMs. At Market Magnets, Oil is off an extreme low. CPI/Retail Sales/Empire Index: 05:30 PT; BusInvs/NAHB: 07:00 PT; FOMC: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
14 Mar '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Yesterday's provisional positive crossing of the Bond's (146^01) 8-hr. MACD failed to confirm, so no Market Rhythm Target was set. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the components lightly mixed: Oil (48.69) is firmest, +0.5%, whilst weakest is the Euro (1.06840), -0.2%; rangiest is the Swiss (0.9972, -0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%. Although its 21-day linreg trend remains positive, the Spoo's (2369.25) "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) are falling for the 8th straight day. FOMC's 2-day stint begins. PPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
13 Mar '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond's (147^03) 8-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to positive: if confirmed at 08:00 PT, we'll have a Market Rhythm Target of 1^26 points higher ($1,800/cac). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, save for the Spoo (2366.25) for which the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is just 30%; rangiest is the Swiss (0.9976) with an 89% tracing. Copper (2.6325) is presently changed the most, +1.2%. The Gold Update highlights the negative 21-day linreg trends across the BEGOS components, except for the Spoo, but the PMs are showing firmness today.
10 Mar '17, 04:42 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Copper (cur 2.5910, tar 2.5585) was reached yesterday. Silver's (19.930) daily Price Oscillator confirmed a cross to negative, but as price is so near a key "fib" retracement level (16.81, as depicted in the still current Gold Update from last Sat), we shan't set a further downside Target. The BEGOS Markets are modestly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, the Spoo (2371.25, +0.3%) being the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 75%. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is moving from Mar into Jun; 1st position is Mon. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
09 Mar '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5665) daily Price Oscillator is working lower, our Market Rhythm Target of 2.5585 still intact; the Spoo's (2362.00) daily MACD is extending its negative stance. The Precious Metals "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have crossed sub-0% in real-time, the 21-day linreg trends now down. Oil (49.29) is off the most, -1.8%, of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower, except for the EuroCurrencies; volatility is moderate, save for Oil having traced 181% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Jun becomes Spoo's "front month". ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT.
08 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Copper (2.6245) confirmed a negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2.5585; the widely-watched daily MACD on the Spoo (2365.50) is confirmed as negative, however we shan't set a specific downside Target there, (see yesterday's note). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, no 1 component at present changed by more than 0.5% either way. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing falling for the Precious Metals, their 21-day linreg trends rotating from up to down. ADP: 05:15 PT; Q4 Productivity(Rev): 05:30; Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
07 Mar '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.6380) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative: if confirmed at close, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.0560 points ($1,400) lower from the next session's open. The Spoo's (2371.75) daily MACD also has provisionally crossed to negative: this study is at present not on our Market Rhythms page (given the performance qualifications thereon), but it remains a key measure in the trader/investor community. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with little change in either direction; volatility is running light-to-moderate. Trade Deficit comes due at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Target signals for we're watching include pending negative crossings in the Spoo's (2375.25) daily MACD, both Silver's (17.865) and Copper's (2.6575) daily Price Oscillators, and a positive crossing in the Bond's (149^22) 8-hr. MACD; the latter is the only BEGOS Market presently higher, +0.1%, Copper being off the most at -1.8%. The Gold Update highlights Silver's Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) breaking down; those for the EuroCurrencies are beginning to curl up from below their respective -80% levels. Factory Orders come due at 07:00 PT.
03 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Gold (1227.0) reached the Market Rhythm Target of 1231.9. More notably, Silver's (17.725) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have finally cracked; should a material correction ensue, downside "fib" levels we're noting per the up-run from the December lows are in the areas of 17.500, 17.100 & 16.800. The Spoo's (1278.50) Blues still have yet to break down. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes are mixed, Gold being off the most at -0.6%; the Euro (1.05475) is firmest at +0.4%. ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT. Both Yellen & Fischer have addresses @ 10:00 PT.
02 Mar '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red and volatility is moderate, the weakest component being Gold (1240.2, -0.8%), its 12-hr. MACD becoming further negative and its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now noticeably starting to roll over; those for Silver (18.340, -0.7%) have yet to break down. The Dollar (102.095), whilst higher, is still below its Jan high of 103.815, (the highest level since 2003). The Spoo (2391.25) closed yesterday 33 points above its Market Magnet and in real-time is 87 points above its Market Value: neither reading is overly extreme, but far from the mean.
01 Mar '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are 4 up and 4 down on moderate-to-robust volatility: Copper (2.7475) is the upside leader at +1.3% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 104%, followed by the Spoo (2374.25, +0.4%). Weakest is Gold (1241.8, -0.6%) followed by the Bond (150^10, -0.5%) and the EuroCurrencies. Whilst we're not big on Shorting Gold, for the record, the 12-hr. MACD is negative for a Market Rhythm Target (as measured from the open at 1245.9) of 1231.9, (14 points). Pers Inc/Spd: 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
28 Feb '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light with most components mildly higher, the exception being Oil (53.94, -0.2%); the only EDTRs (see Market Ranges) tracing exceeding 50% are those of the Swiss (0.9959, +0.4%) at 89% and the Euro (1.06075, +0.1%) at 55%. Today is "1st Notice" for the Mar Bond (152^29) as the cac volume swings into Jun (151^20, +0.1%). Silver's (18.350, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time +94% having been +80% or higher in 24 of the prior 28 sessions. 2nd peek at Q4 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; ConsConf: 07:00 PT.
27 Feb '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: A muted start to the week for the BEGOS Markets with most EDTR (see Market Trends) tracings sub-50%, the exceptions being Oil (54.42, +0.7%) at 62% and the Euro (1.05120, +0.2%) at 51%; changes are mixed. Copper's (2.6900, +0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is near to crossing negative as are the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), the 21-day linreg trend rotating toward going negative. Silver's (Mar 18.335, -0.1%) cac volume is moving into May (18.390); 1st notice for delivery is tomorrow. Q4 Earnings Season is complete. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
24 Feb '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: On mostly moderate volatility the BEGOS Markets are higher, save for Oil (54.08, -0.5%) and the Spoo (2353.50, -0.4%). Rangiest is Gold (1257.6, +0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 72%, price making a new high for the year along with Silver (18.27, +0.6%); the white metal can see a tug-of-war here as Gold's 12-hr. MACD goes positive but Copper's (Mar 2.6590) daily Parabolics flip to Short; the red metal's cac volume is shifting into May (2.6750). Q4 Earnings Season winds down today with 60% better y-o-y. UofM Sentiment & New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
23 Feb '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: As noted, the Bond's (151^20) Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) was nixed, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed crossing positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is light, and with the exception of Oil (54.26, +0.7%), no other component is presently changed in either direction by > 0.1%. At Market Magnets, only the Spoo's (2361.75) price is excessive, some 31 points "high" as of yesterday's settle; at Market Values, 'tis 73 points "high", albeit that is a broader-based measure which neared 150 points "high" in December. Still, our "live" p/e for the S&P (2362.82) is 34.0x.
22 Feb '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for the narrow trading in the PMs, both Gold (1238.5, +0.1%) and Silver (17.965, +0.1%) with respective EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of just 33% and 30%; most rangy is the Bond (151^21, +0.3%) with an 81% tracing, along with the 12-hr. Price Oscillator provisionally crossing positive, which if confirmed nixes our Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun). We're focused on Silver and the Spoo (2356.50, -0.2%) both for which the "Baby Blues" are +80% and "due" for decline. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
21 Feb '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The double session has pushed BEGOS Markets volatility into the moderate-to robust category, the EuroCurrencies and Oil (54.67) exceeding 100% of their EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the latter being the upside leader at +1.7%; only Copper (2.7415, +1.03%) and the Spoo (2354.00, +0.2%) also are higher, the Euro (1.05420) the weakest at -0.8%. Silver's (17.895) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still firm, however both the white metal and Gold (1231.3) are pressing lower. The Bond's (150^23) Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) remains in place.
20 Feb '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: This 2-day session is thus far mixed for the BEGOS Markets, and volatility is mostly light; oddly with the US bourses closed, the Spoo (2351.00 +0.1%) is the rangiest of the bunch, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 69%. As anticipated in The Gold Update, the precious metals, whilst barely higher, Gold (1237.2) and Silver (17.985) each +0.1%, both have made lows below those of Thu and Fri. The Bond's (151^11, -0.1%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, but less so give the 3-day rally: still, the Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) is being maintained.
17 Feb '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond's (Mar 151^12, Jun 150^02) 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, our Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) still in place; counter to that, the daily Parabolics are flipping to Long, but that study has been sufficiently erratic such as not to be on the Market Rhythms page list. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate at best: Gold (1244.03) is working higher, +0.3%, however Silver (18.04) is -0.3% as Copper (2.6925) is the weakest of the bunch, -0.7%; mind Silver's "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page. Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
16 Feb '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil (Mar 53.41) is up the most, +0.8%, in BEGOS; cac volume is moving into Apr (53.87). The Bond (150^13) is higher, +0.2%, but its 12-hr. Price Oscillator is further negative toward maintaining our Market Rhythm Target on the Jun cac of 147^08. The Spoo (2346.75, -0.2%) has risen 7 straight sessions: the "guesstimate low if a down day" is 2337.50, near Market Profile support at 2335. BEGOS Markets Volatility is light-to-moderate; Copper (2.7320) is weakest, -0.3%. The Swiss (1.0005) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Housing & Philly Fed @ 05:30 PT.
15 Feb '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^15) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed a cross to negative; as noted on our Market Rhythms page, this augurs for a full 2-point move lower (from this session's open of 150^24); however with the pending cac rollover from Mar to Jun, one might consider the latter in this case, for which we'll set a Target of 147^08. All 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, and again, volatility is light. Silver (17.885) is weakest, -0.4%, but still not so much so as to tip over its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). 9 EconBaro metrics hit from 05:30-07:00 PT; Yellen/House: 07:00 PT.
14 Feb '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets Volatility is light, Oil (52.37) the most changed, +0.9%; weakest is the Bond (151^04), -0.1%. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is the Euro (1.06400, +0.3%) at 53%, the Spoo (2326.00 < -0.1%) least so at 28%. Gold's (1230.8, +0.4%) daily Moneyflow (see 10 Feb) is provisionally crossing back above 50 (scale 0-100), as price remains resilient despite yesterday's test of structural support at 1220 (see The Gold Update); Silver (17.910, +0.5%) is still firm, notably as Copper (2.7955, +0.4%) has yet to drop. PPI: 05:30 PT; Yellen/Senate: 07:00 PT.
13 Feb '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythms page is becoming more populated: from late in last year's StateSide election cycle through this year-to-date, the daily list had been shrinking; its expanding now means signal follow-thoughs are becoming more reliable. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate. We're watching for Silver's (17.940) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) to crack, their hovering above the 80% for some 3 weeks, price being firmer than Gold (1231.0), and now aided industrially by strength in Copper (2.7890). Spoo (2317.25) with new highs.
10 Feb '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold (1228.0) having attained the 1240-1280 resistance zone has since pulled back, the daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50 (scale 100-0); should that be confirmed at close, our Market Rhythms page calls for a Target then of some 70 points lower: we think rather that Gold will focus on battling the overhead resistance zone; as well, the 1220 area appears as structural support. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, save for Copper's (2.6715) 110% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Ex/Im pricing: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
09 Feb '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with no one component presently changed > 1% either way, and volatility is moderate. Copper's (2.6680) daily Moneyflow confirmed crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) indicative of a Long signal, which by our Market Rhythms page suggests a Target of 0.0480 ($1,200/cac) points higher (from 2.6385 to 2.6865), but we shan't chase it given the red metal's declining "Baby Blues" and the uncertainties 'round strikes in Chile and Indonesia. The Swiss (1.0016) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 82%. Wholesale Inventories at 07:00 PT.
08 Feb '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold (1240.0) has achieved our anticipated goal of at least reaching the underside of the 1240-1280 resistance zone during the present weekly parabolic Long trend (per The Gold Update of 14 Jan); 2nd to Copper (2.6725, +1.4%), Gold is up the most (+0.4%) of the BEGOS Markets, volatility moderate across the bunch, (save for the red metal's 102% tracing of its EDTR [see Market Ranges] pending a Copper strike [BHP]). EuroCurrencies are weaker, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now accelerating their downside fall. The Bond (152^20, +0.3%) is at a 3-week high.
07 Feb '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.06875) daily Parabolics are flipping to Short, and the Swiss' (1.0026) daily MACD is all but negatively crossed; we're not keen to set Market Rhythm Targets in either case, for as can be seen at that page, neither Rhythm presently is in the list; still, both studies on the daily time-frame are quite visible to traders at large. 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, (the Swiss being the weakest, -0.8%), save for the Spoo (2292.50, +0.3%. Volatility is moderate, albeit the EuroCurrencies have traced > 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Trade Deficit due at 05:30 PT.
06 Feb '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets metals are the session's leaders, Copper (2.6325) +0.7% and both Gold (1228.6) & Silver (17.625) +0.6%. The Gold Update cites the PMs' resilience despite drops in their respective "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends); Gold's high this session (1229) is but 11 points from the 1240-1280 resistance zone which we've been targeting on this parabolic weekly Long trend. Volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro (1.07570) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 62%; as noted, the Euro is nearing its daily parabolic flip-to-short price (currently set at 1.07168).
03 Feb '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: There's weakness across the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil (53.74) and the Spoo (2279.00), both +0.2%; volatility is moderate. The EuroCurrencies are sufficiently weakening such as to watch for a flip in the Euro's (1.07480) daily Parabolics to Short and a negative cross for the Swiss' (1.0052) daily MACD; there is Market Profile resistance for the Euro at 1.07700, yet support for the Swiss at 1.0030; in real-time, both EuroCurrencies have crossed below their Market Magnets, suggestive of lower levels near-term. Payrolls data at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders & ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Feb '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Post-Fed, 'tis all about further Dollar (99.365) fallout, the EuroCurrencies on the rise, as is Oil (54.13, +1.1%), Silver (17.695, +0.9%) and Gold (1223.5, +1.0%), the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 108%; BEGOS Markets volatility is otherwise moderate. Making highs for this year are both Silver and Gold, the latter having seen 1226 this session and seemingly en route to at least the base of the 1240-1280 resistance zone as anticipated during this parabolic Long trend on the weekly bars per The Gold Update. Q4 Productivity (Prelim) due at 05:30 PT.
01 Feb '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with most components presently little changed either way, save for Oil (53.20), +0.8%. Rangiest is Copper (2.7135) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%. At Market Values, none of the primary components are in an excessive stance, and notably for Gold (1213.0), despite its strength these last few days, price is only 7 points above its Market Magnet, (an extreme reading is more on the order of 50 points distance). A busy session of incoming data: ADP: 05:15PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction: 07:00; FOMC (no change): 11:00 PT.
31 Jan '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Straightway we're nixing Silver's (17.395) Market Rhythm Target of 16.870, price's upside whip having now provisionally flipped the daily Parabolics to Long; with the FOMC in tomorrow's balance, we'll take pause as regards a higher Target, especially with the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in decline; amongst the BEGOS Markets, Silver is also the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 118%; volatility for the balance of the up bunch is moderate; only Oil (52.53) and the Spoo (2273.25) are barely in the red. ECI: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; ConsConf: 07:00 PT.
30 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: As noted, the daily Parabolics for Silver (17.115) confirmed the flip to Short to give us a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's open at 17.170) of 16.870. Gold's (1189.8) cac volume is moving from Feb (1st notice for delivery is tomorrow) into Apr (1192.5). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Euro (1.06525) which has traced 121% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update notes the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the 3 BEGOS Metals and 2 EuroCurrencies all curling lower. Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT; Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
27 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.725) daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short, which would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 0.300 points ($1,500/cac) lower from the opening price of the next session (Sunday, 15:00 PT). The BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate. The declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their falls for both Silver and Gold (1183.0); those for the EuroCurrencies as well as for Copper (2.6770) are just beginning to curl over to the downside from their +80 levels. 1st peek at Q4 GDP due @ 05:30 along with Durable Orders.
26 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss (1.0051) and Spoo (2294.50), the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower; volatility is moderate, the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being that for Gold (1187.7) at 97%. Again, this pullback in both Gold and Silver (16.810) is coincident with their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling over; those for the Bond (149^05) have been dropping for better than a week, and per our 19 Jan comment, the 148s have now been touched (low 148^30). The Spoo's daily MACD is turning positive, but we shan't chase it. LEI/New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
25 Jan '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: That of which we've been wary, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the PMs are in real-time kinking down following their multi-week up run; this does not preclude Gold's (1205.2) being able to reach at least 1240 per the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend, (which presently has room down to 1129 to remain Long), but the incipient falling of the blue dots can herald some near-term pullback. Silver (16.975), -0.8% and with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 102%, is both the weakest and rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, which are otherwise are mixed with moderate volatility.
24 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on mostly moderate volatility. Separately, the Dollar (100.305) is modestly higher, which if maintained, would be just the 5th up day for the Buck through 16 sessions year-to-date; further rising could finally knock down the high levels of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the PMs and EuroCurrencies; the "Baby Blues" for the Bond (151^18) continue to drop, albeit its daily MACD is flattening more than making a decisive negative cross. At Market Profiles, the Spoo's (2261.75) dominant trading handle is 2265. Existing Homes come due at 07:00 PT.
23 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, 6 of the 8 higher, led by Copper (2.6400), +0.9%; weakest is Oil (52.62), -1.2%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the Bond (150^26) are furthering their fall, price on Friday having gone sub-150. The Gold Update points to price's (1213.1) having risen for 4 straight weeks sufficient to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long, the typical follow-through suggestive of a move at least up to the lower boundary of the 1240-1280 resistance zone; still, mind too the lofty levels of the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver (17.170).
20 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: As the Bond's (150^05) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop, the daily MACD is approaching a negative cross, (albeit that study had not recently qualified to make our Market Rhythms list). But the same study for Copper (2.6045) is on the list and also is approaching a negative cross; the red metal's "Baby Blues" may ratchet lower in a day or 2. Save for Oil (52.87) and the Spoo (2265.50), the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, and volatility is moderate. Rangiest is the Bond with a 79% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, followed by Silver (16.945) at 71%.
19 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, presently with little change either way; volatility is moderate, the 3 metals having shown the most movement of the bunch. As noted, we've now got the Bond's (151^15) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling downward, the chart suggestive of a run down into the 148s. Similar blue dot drops from high levels may be in store for the PMs: Gold's (1203.5) "live" Baby Blue is +95%, whilst that for Silver (16.995) is +89%; still, with Gold's weekly parabolic trend now Long, we're eying 1240. ECB @ 04:45 PT; Housing/Philly Fed/Draghi @ 05:30 PT.
18 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo's (2263.50) being +0.1%, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are down, lead by Oil (Feb 51.70), for which the cac volume is moving into Mar (52.54), -1.5%; 'tis also leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90%; otherwise, volatility is mostly moderate. Mind the Bond (152^23), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time just kinking lower, albeit still above the +80% level; that said, at Market Values, the Bond is well in line with its smooth valuation line. CPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
17 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues, the effect being a robust volatility reading for the BEGOS Markets, and which at present are bouncing about as Theresa May speaks on Brexit. Gold (1214.2) remains the leader, +1.4%, clearly satisfying our Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3, yet we're still eying 1240; but Copper (2.6405) is now the weakest, -2.4% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 176%; the red metal was getting high vs. its Market Magnet. Only the Spoo (2262.75), too, is lower at -0.4%, the balance of the bunch all higher. NY Empire comes due @ 05:30 PT.
16 Jan '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: This Sunday-Tuesday GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets mixed and volatility moderate. Gold (1204.1) is leading both by gain, +0.6%, and by EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, 72%; as anticipated in The Gold Update, the overnight high of 1208.7 was sufficient to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long, which in turn opens the door for a run up to at least the bottom of the 1240-1280 resistance zone; obviously en route, the Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3 would be hit as 'twas signaled by the daily Price Oscillator, (see 10 Jan). Oil (52.15) is weakest of the bunch, -0.7%.
13 Jan '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with changes fairly modest either way, save for Oil (52.43) -1.1%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%; quietest is the Spoo (2265.50) with just a 22% tracing. At Market Trends, Gold's (1197.5) "Baby Blues" have stretched (in real-time) above +80%; only those for the Bond (152^29) are as high, both markets having put in solid 21-day linreg uptrends, (with the balance of the other 6 components all still tilting upward as well). PPI/Retail Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment/BusInvs: 07:00PT.
12 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 3 metals components of BEGOS are the session's leaders, with Gold (1204.6),Silver (16.940) and Copper (2.6280) all +1.1%. The yellow metal's high (1207.2) is near to its Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3, the daily Price Oscillator still positive and growing, as are the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). The balance of the bunch are also higher, ex-the Spoo (2263.75) -0.3%. The 21-day linreg trends of all 8 markets are positive at the expense of the Dollar (100.840) which year-to-date has essentially been falling. Ex/Im Pricing due @ 05:30 PT; Treasury Budget due @ 11:00 PT.
11 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility is light-to-moderate; no one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.5%. Gold's (1188.4) daily Price Oscillator is growing to the positive side, the Market Rhythm Target in place at 1209.3; Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have room to further ascend, whilst at Market Values, price has only just returned up to its smooth valuation line, (albeit at Market Magnets, Gold might appear momentarily a bit high, but not to the extent 'twas when to the downside). Our Earnings Season page is characterizing the data from Q4.
10 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5700) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally swung to positive, calling for a nix of our 2.4470 Market Rhythm Target. Gold's (1185.0) daily Price Oscillator confirmed its swing to positive, giving us Target of 1209.3, ($2,800/cac as measured from this session's open of 1181.3). BEGOS Markets volatility is again light-to-moderate, Copper the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%, with price up the most at +1.5%. 7 of the 8 components are higher, save for the Bond (152^20) which is just off at -0.1%. Whole Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
09 Jan '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (152^12) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 70%. Gold (1179.6) is firmest +0.6%, and Oil (53.01) weakest -1.3%. Despite some recent buoyancy, Copper's (2.5320) daily Price Oscillator is still negative, so we still maintain its Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. The same study for Gold has provisionally crossed to positive: should that confirm at today's close, we'd be targeting a further 28 points higher ($2,800/cac) as measured from the next opening (today at 15:00 PT). Consumer Credit due @ 12:00 PT.
06 Jan '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5310) daily Price Oscillator remains to the negative side such that the Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470 is still intact; but the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now on the rise from the -80% level, a portent of higher prices ahead. Conversely, the Spoo's (2263.50) "Baby Blues" continue their slide, with price itself having yet to crack, but 'twould appear due. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, save for Silver (16.525) which has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Payrolls and Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
05 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Oil (53.80) swiftly met our fresh Market Rhythm Target of 52.20; Copper's (2.5570) Target of 2.4470 is still on the table given the ongoing negative daily Price Oscillator; Gold's (1174.1) daily moneyflow continues its advance above the 50 level, price having already all but touched the suggested 1180s. Gold and Silver (16.620) are both the BEGOS Markets leaders, each +0.8%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 118%. The Spoo (2260.25) is the weakest link, -0.2%. ADP is due @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) is due @ 07:00 PT.
04 Jan '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, all of which are higher save for the Bond (150^19) which is a pip below "unch". The leaders are both Silver (16.480) and Copper (2.5075), both +0.8%. Still, the red metal's daily Price Oscillator is negative, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. Oil's (52.64) daily Moneyflow continues sub-50 (scale 100-0), so its Target of 52.20 is in place. The same study for Gold (1165.3) has crossed above 50, suggestive of the 1180s; the foot of our Gold page presently highlights that study. FOMC Minutes (14 Dec) @ 11:00 PT.
03 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Another trading year commences with the usual robust volatility for the BEGOS Markets, with the EuroCurrencies, Bond (149^07), and Gold (1149.0) lower, and the industrial metals, Oil (54.91) and the Spoo (2254.50) higher. However, Oil's daily Moneyflow has confirmed a sub-50 downside crossing (scale 100-0) to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 52.20; at Market Values, Oil shows as some 5 full points "high". Copper's (2.5280) Target of 2.4470 remains in place given the still negative daily Price Oscillator. ISM(Mfg) & Construction kick off the year's EconBaro data at 07:00 PT.
30 Dec '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As anticipated, the Spoo's (2248.25, +0.1%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed crossing to negative; again whilst not on the present Market Rhythms list, the prior two crossings had better than 100 points of follow-through; Copper's 2.5055, +0.8%) daily Price Oscillator remains negative, the 2.4470 Market Rhythm Target still intact; and Gold's (1159.9, +0.1%) daily Moneyflow has provisionally crossed above 50 (scale 0-100) which suggests a move of some 70 points higher. Final year's day BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-robust. Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT. Bonne Année!
29 Dec '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Driving toward/through year-end, we're watching the 12-hr. Price Oscillator on the Spoo (2246.25, +0.1%) as 'tis within a session or 2 of crossing negative; said Market Rhythm is not presently on that page's list, due to whipsawing either side of 0 through out Oct, but its last 2 crossings have led to 100 further points of travel, of which there ought be plenty into the New Year. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and all 8 are higher, led by Silver (16.165, +0.7%) and Oil (53.99, +0.6%); the Swiss (0.9802, +0.3%) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 84%.
28 Dec '16, 04:16 Pacific Time: On mostly moderate volatility, the BEGOS Markets have a mild downside bias, the exceptions being Oil (54.11, +0.4%) and the Spoo (2266.25, +0.3%). Weakest is Copper (2.4955, -1.1%) for which the daily Price Oscillator remains negative and thus the Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470 still in place. The Euro (1.04615, -0.4%) is the rangiest with a 72% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. At Market Values, the extremes for both Gold (1139.0, "unch" and the Spoo have begun to unwind, but still are excessive, (Gold 70 pts "low", the Spoo 60 pts "high"). Pending Homes at 07:00 PT.
27 Dec '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.4735, -0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is notched further negative toward keeping our Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470; at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" continue their tumble. But the PMs are the session's best BEGOS Markets performers, with Silver (16.030, +1.6%) and Gold (1144.02, +0.8%), such direction of note given the Bond (148^28, +0.1%) and EuroCurrencies are working lower. Volatility is mostly light, save for the PMs, the EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracings at 137% for Gold and 86% for Silver. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
23 Dec '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Copper (2.4980, -0.4%) finally confirmed its negative crossing, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. Oil's (54.35. -0.6%) daily Moneyflow is provisionally crossing the sub-50 level (scale 100-0), which if confirmed would give us a Target from the next session's open (Mon, 15:00 PT) of 2.00 points lower ($2,000/cac). The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed and volatility is light. Again, per Market Values, the "high" excess remains for the Spoo (2258.25 "unch") as does the "low" excess for Gold (1133.0, +0.3%). New Homes at 07:00 PT. Merry/Happy All !
22 Dec '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.4715, -0.9%) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative; should it so be at session's end, we'd get a Market Rhythm Target of 0.060 points lower ($1,500/cac) from the opening price of the Fri session (at 15:00 PT today); Copper is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are down, save for the EuroCurrencies; volatility is light-to-moderate, with Copper leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 64%, followed by Silver (15.89, -0.5%) with a 54% tracing. Incoming EconBaro data includes Final Q3 GDP, Personal Inc/Spd & PCE, Durables, and LEI.
21 Dec '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: In a reversal of yesterday, 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently in the black, albeit net changes in either direction are muted and volatility is mostly light. Rangiest is the Swiss (0.9807, +0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%; most docile are both Oil (53.65, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2264.50, -0.1%) with EDTR tracings of just 22%. Copper's (2.5090, +0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is all but a positive nub; at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" continue to drop. 11 EconBaro metrics are due the next 3 days, starting with Existing Homes today at 07:00 PT.
20 Dec '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently in the red, the weakest being Silver (15.870, -0.9%) and Gold (1134.2, -0.5%); still not helping Silver is Copper (2.4975, -0.2%); in realtime, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both the white and red metals are now sub-0%. Still, Copper's daily Price Oscillator has yet to break into the negative side despite its trending in that direction; its current signaling record is listed at Market Rhythms. At Market Values, Gold is running 100 points "too low" and the Spoo (2264.75, +0.2%) 100 points "too high". Up the most is Oil (53.36, +0.4%).
19 Dec '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) with no one changed presently by more than 1% either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. Weakest is Copper (2.5250, -0.9%), which as described in The Gold Update has its "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) in accelerative free-fall, in turn boding negatively for Silver (16.07, -0.4%) should Gold (1140.0, +0.3%) not materially firm. Tis a wee gain on the day for the yellow metal, but 'tis the upside leader. Yet at the moment, the white metal's "Baby Blues" are set to go sub-0% and price is below its Market Profile supporter of 16.10.
16 Dec '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (2.5735, -0.9%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs (Silver 16.145, +0.8%), (Gold 1136.5, +0.5%) and the Bond (148^30, +0.5%); volatility is moderate. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9776, tar 1.0038) was nixed yesterday, the daily MACD confirming a cross to negative. Copper's daily Price Oscillator continues to decline, but has yet to cross negative; the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are extending their fall. EuroCurrencies rolling into Mar; Oil (Feb 52.35) cac volume rolling to Feb. Housing @ 05:30 PT.
15 Dec '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As put (12 Dec) Gold (1132.6, -1.0%/GLOBEX or -2.7%/COMEX) is continuing to giving ups its gains for 2016, now year-to-date +6.8% vs. 29.9% back on 06 Jul; The Gold Update has noted the dearth of support sub-1190. On the day, weaker still is Silver (16.245, -3.8%/GLOBEX or -5.7%/COMEX). 4 of the 8 BEGOS Markets have exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), namely the PMs and the EuroCurrencies; only higher of note is Oil (51.00, +0.5%). 13-year Dollar (103.025) high. CPI, Philly Fed, NY Empire, Q3 Current Acct all @ 5:30 PT; NAHB @ 07:00.
14 Dec '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, save for Copper (2.6050, +0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 102%, 2nd comes Silver's (17.180, +1.3%) tracing of 67%; narrowest is the Spoo's (2268.50, "unch") at just 20%. The Swiss (0.9908, +0.3%) is maintaining its positive daily MACD, keeping the 1.0038 Market Rhythm Target intact. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are accelerating more to the downside, (daily Price Oscillator is still positive). Retail Sales/PPI: 05:30PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; BusInv: 07:00 PT; Fed Hike: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
13 Dec '16, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are narrowing, the FOMC 2-day meeting starting today; components are mixed, and save for the Spoo's (2256.25, +0.3%) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 58%, the balance are all sub-50%; firmest again is Oil (53.33, +1.7%) and weakest is Gold (1160.6, -0.3%). Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9879, tar 1.0038) remains alive as the daily MACD is still positive; also we're eying Copper's (2.6240, +0.7%) daily Price Oscillator as it trends toward crossing to negative; prudence is warranted given the FOMC tomorrow. Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT.
12 Dec '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Gold Update cites concern for Gold (1157.7, -0.3%) conceivably giving up its gains for the year, (albeit it settled last week +10% net in 2016, still the best performance in six years); of late, Silver (16.945, +0.2%) has been the firmer of the 2 PMs. BEGOS Market volatility is moderate, the exception being Oil's (53.81, +4.5%) having traced 106% of its EDTR, Russia jumping on the supply cut bandwagon. The Bond (147^22, -0.5%) is the weakest if the bunch. The Swiss' (0.9868, +0.2%) daily MACD remains on the positive side, the Market Rhythm Target thus still intact for 1.0038.
09 Dec '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9820, -0.2%) daily MACD is weakening such that it looks to go negative prior to reaching our Market Rhythm Target of 1.0038, (provisionally, that MACD is still positive such as to not formally nix the Target); but the Swiss' daily Parabolics would flip to Short at 0.9809. The Bond (149^01, -0.3%), EuroCurrencies and PMs are lower; Copper (2.6475, +0.8%) is firmest followed by Oil (51.24, +0.5%) and the Mar Spoo (2243.50, just above "unch"); BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate. Whole Inventories and UofM Sentiment both due at 07:00 PT.
08 Dec '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: Volatility is more moderate than 'twas at this time yesterday for the BEGOS Markets, albeit the quietest of the bunch is Gold (1178.6, +0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 27%. Oil (50.24) is the firmest component, +0.8%, whilst weakest is the Bond (150^18), -0.5%. At Market Values, the Spoo (Dec 2237.50, Mar 2232.00) is at its most overvalued reading (+133 points) in more than 2 years, (after which the S&P fell some 5% within 3 weeks during 2014 from late Nov into Dec); our "live" p/e of the S&P is 34.1x. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT.
07 Dec '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Again, BEGOS Markets volatility is, at best, light, the one exception being Copper (2.6855, 0.6%), up the most of the bunch, and sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 59%. Only Oil (50.70, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2209.75, -0.1%) are mildly in the red. At Market Values, the Spoo remains 100+ points high above its smooth valuation line, albeit at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" have steadied a bit from their otherwise new decline. The Swiss' (0.9907, +0.1%) daily MACD remains positive, keeping in place the 1.0038 Market Rhythm Target. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
06 Dec '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: Subtle across the board are the BEGOS Markets with no one component presently off by more than 0.4% either way; volatility is light. Rangiest of the bunch is the Euro (1.07395, -0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 48%. The Swiss' (0.9918, -0.2%) daily MACD has confirmed going positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0038; we've been anticipative of the Spoo's (2204.25, "unch") 12-hr. Price Oscillator going negative, but is hasn't (yet) occurred; again, keep an eye on the Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; FactOrdrs: 07:00 PT.
05 Dec '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: As if 'twas already priced in, the market responses to Italy's "No!" vote have reversed, and then some, producing robust volatility for the BEGOS components, the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) for 4 of 8 them exceeding 100%; not surprisingly, rangiest is the Euro (1.07055, +0.3%) with a 222% tracing. The Swiss' (0.9905, +0.1%) daily MACD has provisionally gone positive, (watch for a Market Rhythm Target). Strongest is Copper (2.6615, +1.3%); weakest is Gold (1168.4, -0.9%). At Market Trends, mind the Spoo's (2201.50, +0.5%) falling "Baby Blues". ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
02 Dec '16, 04:17 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is fairly light with all of the components lower by less than 1%, save for the Bond (149^29, +0.4%). Rangiest is Silver (16.440, -0.7%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 78%. The Spoo's (2186.50, -0.2%)"Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have broken below their +80% level, a harbinger of lower prices at least near term; at Market Values, the Spoo has been over 100 points above its smooth valuation line since 21 Nov until this morning (presently +99); the Spoo's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is barely positive and declining. Payrolls data due @ 5:30 PT.
01 Dec '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^13, -0.4%) Market Rhythm Target of 154^14 is quickly nixed as the daily MACD whips back to negative; the Target for Oil (cur 50.01, +2.1%, tar 49.80) has been met, price trading back in the 50s for the 1st time since 28 Oct. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate; weakest is Silver (16.440, -0.7%), whilst Gold (1171.8, -0.3%) has traded sub-1170 for the 1st time since early Feb. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" of downtrend consistency for the Bond, PMs and EuroCurrencies all are below -80%. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
30 Nov '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: OPEC swirlings have Oil (49.04, +8.4%) strongly up and sporting the largest of the BEGOS Markets' EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 215%; the balance of the bunch are mixed on moderate volatility; Oil's daily positive MACD is being reinforced, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 49.80. The Bond (Mar 151^31, -0.6%) confirmed its positive MACD crossing for a Target of 154^14. The Spoo's (2209.00, +0.2%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator is nearing negative, and the Euro's (1.06430, -0.1%) daily Parabolics are nearing Long. Busy EconData data day; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
29 Nov '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2204.00, +0.2%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is mainly moderate. Off the most is Oil (46.21, -1.5%), however its daily MACD remains positive, thus maintaining the Market Rhythm Target of 49.80. Rangiest is Copper (2.6300, -1.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 83%; most docile is the Bond (153^20, -0.1%) with just a 25% tracing; the Bond's daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive, which if confirmed ought present a new Target. Q3 2nd GDP read: 05:30PT; Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
28 Nov '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (2.7060, +0.5%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 119%. The upside leader is Silver (16.680, +1.0%), to the downside 'tis the Spoo (2204.75, -0.3%). The Gold Update points to Gold's (1189.5, +0.5%) further downside susceptibility in last week's breaking sub-1199 to as low as 1170; thus the firming to start the new week is a welcome positive for the present. Oil's (45.85, -0.2%) daily MACD is still positive, so the 49.80 Market Rhythm Target is intact. A busy EconData week after today.
25 Nov '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Wed-Fri GLOBEX session continues with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings suggestive of moderate volatility across the BEGOS board. Gone is Oil's (47.39, -1.1%) gain from yesterday, yet the daily MACD remains positive such as to maintain the Market Rhythm Target of 49.80. Gold's (1188.7, +0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics have their hurdle price to go Long presently at 1197. At Market Values, the Spoo (2205.00, +0.2%) is at its highest level above its smooth valuation line in over a year (121 points in real-time). All BEGOS products cease today's trading at either 10:15 PT or 10:45 PT.
24 Nov '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis Thanksgiving, but the dual-day GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets with light-to-moderate volatility, having 4 components up and 4 down. Leading to the upside is Copper (2.6575, +1.6%), the red metal also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%. Off the most is Silver (16.295, -0.3%). Least rangy is the Spoo (2202.25, +0.1%) with a 21% EDTR tracing. Oil's (48.21, +0.6%) Market Rhythm Target is in place at 49.80. The PM's fallout has kept Gold's (1186.2, -0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics from flipping to Long. Trading Halt: 10:00 PT-15:00 PT.
23 Nov '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is at best light across the BEGOS Markets and changes are muted; EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are narrow as well. For the StateSide physical bourses, this is the week's last full session (Fri's is abbreviated); Fri's GLOBEX session begins today (Wed) at 15:00 PT, halting tomorrow (Thu) from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT. Oil's (47.90) Market Rhythm Target of 49.80 is intact given the positive daily MACD. As noted, we're watching for Gold's (1210.1) 12-hr. Parabolics look to flip Long, the hurdle now at 1218. Durables: 08:30 PT; New Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
22 Nov '16, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2199.00, +0.2%) has crossed above 2200 for the 1st time ever; given "fair value" is -2.63, at present the S&P (2198.18) would trade atop 2200 for its 1st time as well. The BEGOS Markets have a mild upside bias with volatility moderate. Oil (48.25, -0.2%) has traded as high as 49.20, its Market Rhythm Target per the positive daily MACD crossing being 49.80. The PMs are firming so far into the week: Gold's (1216.6, +0.2%) 12-hr. Parabolics look to flip Long should 1225 trade which ought then present a Target of 12 upside points from confirm. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
21 Nov '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility light-to-moderate in starting this abbreviated StateSide trading week (3 1/2 days for the physical bourses). Copper (2.5155) and Oil (47.20) are the upside leaders, both +1.9%; least up is the Swiss (0.9919) +0.1%. Copper is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%. As noted (17 Nov), Oil has since confirmed a positive crossing on its daily MACD to give us a Market Rhythm Target (basis Jan) of 49.80, (ideally from this session's open of 46.60, for $3,200/cac). At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their ascent.
18 Nov '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are little changed to mildly lower on fairly light volatility, again save for Oil (Jan 46.14, +1.4%) as its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to ascend; Oil leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 70%. The PMs in spending the week trying to firm having now broken below last week's lows, albeit Gold (1211.1, -0.4%) is well off this session's low of 1201.3; the PMs' "Baby Blues" remain falling. At Market Values, the Spoo (2172.75, -0.1%) is the highest its been above its smooth line valuation line since 01 Dec of last year.
17 Nov '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The net changes in BEGOS Markets are muted and volatility is light-to-moderate; the exception is Oil (Jan 46.85, +2.2%), which also has the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 68%; cac volume is rolling from Dec into Jan, (1st notice is Tue, 22 Nov); as noted, Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling to the upside, plus the daily MACD is very near to crossing positive, which upon confirmation looks to set up a Market Rhythm Target of some 3 full points higher. CPI, Housing data and the Philly Fed all due @ 05:30 PT. Then comes Yellen (JECC) @ 07:00 PT.
16 Nov '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red and volatility is moderate. Off the most is Oil (45.20, -1.2%) and rangiest is the Bond (153^23, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%. At Market Values, the Bond appears near an "extreme" low vis-à-vis it smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo (2171.75, -0.3%) appears near an "extreme"high. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have just started an upward curl (from -90% on the web page to -85% in real-time). The EuroCurrencies are at multi-month lows. PPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
15 Nov '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Only 1 BEGOS component is in the red, Copper (2.4750, -1.7%), the red metal also sporting the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 173%; with the balance of the bunch up, their volatility is tamer, at best moderate. Up the most is Oil (44.69, +2.2%), its EDTR tracing being 95%. The Spoo (2163.25, +0.1%) has traded but 1 point below its largest Market Profile supporter of 2160; were that level to notably break, further Profile support lies in the 2140-2136 area. 3 days of EconData begins: Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing & NY Empire @ 05:30 PT, then BusInvs @ 07:00 PT.
14 Nov '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: The PMs are steading themselves, albeit both Gold (1222.8, -0.4%) and Silver (17.185, -1.0%) have marginally punched through their prior week's low (of 1218.7 & 17.170); The Gold Update depicts the topping of the "Baby Blues", yet emphasizes "zany" markets ahead with the 14 Dec FOMC statement in the balance. The BEGOS Markets are lower, save for Copper (2.5532, +1.9%) which low-high last week was +21.2, and a lightly higher Spoo (2163.25, +0.1%). Robust volatility is led by Copper's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 167% and that for the Bond (153^23) at 132%.
11 Nov '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate amongst the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper (2.6840), which has had but 1 down day in the last 15, and with a post-election push, is now (from its 21 October close of 2.0885) +28%; in this session, the red metal is +5.7% and has traced 371% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). All of the other components are presently changed by less than 1% either way. Silver's (18.595) industrial metal side has, thanks to Copper, kept its level buoyed, whilst Gold (1257.8) has sunk back into the midst of its 1280-1240 support zone. UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT.
10 Nov '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility robust. At our Market Ranges page, the sharp spikes in EDTRs suggest very rangy days at least over the near-term. At Market Trends, we're mindful that the "Baby Blues" for the PMs may breakdown from here to again test the near-term support in the Market Profiles for both Gold (cur 1281.6) and Silver (cur 18.730). The highest trade ever on the S&P (2163.26) is 2193.81 (15 Aug): the Spoo (2172.50) would presently see the S&P open to 2177; given the Spoo's EDTR is 31 points, a new high may be nigh. Treasury Budget: 11:00 PT.
09 Nov '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2093.00, -2.0%) went limit down overnight (low 2028.50, -5.0%). BEGOS Markets volatility is extreme, but most of the components have come well back toward the center of their session ranges. The Spoo remains the weakest of the bunch, followed by the Bond (159^23, -1.5%); Oil is justly mildly off (44.70, -0.3%). The balance are all higher, led by Gold (1301.9), Silver (18.740) and Copper (2.4235) each +2.0%. The largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are the Spoo @ 601%, the Bond @ 501% and Gold @ 471%. Wholesale Inventories come due at 07:00 PT.
08 Nov '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently off, but none by more than -0.7%, that being Copper (2.2960); mildly up are the Bond (162^31, +0.2%) and Silver (18.185, +0.1%); the white metal's 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: were that to confirm come 12:00 PT, a Market Rhythm Target could then be set for 0.340 points ($1,700/cac) lower, but caution is warranted (on any component's unhedged/unprotected position) given Markets' responding to incoming Election Day data, be it from exit polling during the RTH sessions or from results during the evening.
07 Nov '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets significantly gapped one way or the other at the open (Sun. 15:00 PT), moving beyond either their "high if an up day" or "low if a down day" guesstimates vis-à-vis their respective EDTRs (see Market Ranges). To the upside are Oil (44.79, +1.5%), Copper (2.2880, +1.3%) & the Spoo (2107.25, +1.2%). Weakest is Gold (1288.2, -1.3%). As detailed in The Gold Update, the S&P (2085.18, but would open now 'round 2112) was down for 9 straight days, tying the record since 1980. A light data week begins with Consumer Credit at 12:00 PT.
04 Nov '16, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are barely unchanged either way, volatility being mostly light. Again, the PMs are the rangiest, Gold (1302.7, -0.1%) sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 69% and Silver (18.345, -0.1%) a 59% tracing. At Market Trends, the PMs "Baby Blues" are the most upside-impressive of the bunch, yet further at Market Values, Gold is not excessively high above its valuation line, although we're a bit sensitive to price's distance above its Market Magnet. The S&P (2088.66) has posted 8 straight down days. Payrolls and Trade Deficit due at 05:30 PT.
03 Nov '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: The PMs have had a strong near-term up run, but are the weakest of the 8 BEGOS Markets: Silver (18.120) is -2.0% and Gold (1291.4) is -0.5%; the upside leaders are Oil (45.77, +0.6%) and Copper (2.3305, +0.5%). Volatility is moderate-to-robust, the rangiest being Silver by its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 165%, followed by Gold's 146% tracing; Oil is the most docile with a 38% tracing. The Eurocurrencies, by their Market Magnets, appear at near-term high extremes. EconBaro data includes: Q3 Productivity at 05:30 PT, plus Factory Orders and ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Nov '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0309, tar 1.0231) was swiftly achieved; today, the EuroCurrencies, PMs and Treasuries are being bid higher still. At Market Values, Gold (1296.6) has finally returned (in real-time) to its smooth valuation line for the first time since 30 Sep, (after which came the early Oct selloff); at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver (18.505) are leaping (in real-time) into positive territory, whilst those for Oil (45.95) continue to fall. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate. ADP @ 05:15 PT; FOMC "no-go" statement @ 11:00 PT.
01 Nov '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0182) daily MACD has confirmed an upside cross for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0231 (ideally from 1.0135, this session's opening price). BEGOS Markets volatility is picking up, running moderate-to robust. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is Silver (18.190, +1.6%) at 118%, followed by the Swiss (+0.5%) at 108% and then Gold (1286.9, +0.7%) at 89%. In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above the 0% axis for both Gold & Silver, the 21-day linreg trends swinging up. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Oct '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: As expected, the Bond's (162^10) Market Rhythm Target of 165^23 was nixed, as was that for Copper (cur 2.1915, tar 2.0570). Per the 27 Oct comment, the Swiss' (1.0137) daily MACD is now provisionally crossing positive; if confirmed today, an upside Target of 0.0096 ($1,200/cac) would be added to the next session's opening price. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on moderate volatility in starting a busy economic week of 20 EconBaro metrics, (plus a "no-go" FOMC statement come Wed). Personal Inc/Spd & PCE Inflation due @ 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: due @ 06:45 PT.
28 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond's (162^11) daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative; upon day's end confirmation, 'twould nix our Market Rhythm Target of 165^23; Copper's (2.1755) daily Price Oscillator remains barely negative, but as noted, its Target of 2.0570 faces nixing as well. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, and all 8 components presently are little changed either way, the best being Copper +0.5%, the weakest being Oil (49.46) -0.3%. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the PMs continue their ascents, whilst those for Oil continue to plummet. 1st peek at Q3 GDP @ 05:30 PT.
27 Oct '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: Our open Market Rhythm Targets for both Copper (cur 2.1615, tar 2.0570) and the Bond (cur 162^27, tar 165^23) are both looking to get nixed, the red metal's still-negative daily Price Oscillator becoming less so, and the Bond's still-positive daily MACD trending toward a downside cross. We're watching for the Swiss' (1.0110) daily MACD to turn positive perhaps by week's end for a fresh Target. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, save for Copper which has traced 116% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). PMs appear firm. Durables due at 05:30 PT; Pending Homes at 07:00 PT.
26 Oct '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's up-spike, Copper (2.1380) has stalled: its daily Price Oscillator is still to the negative side such, that for now, our Market Rhythm Target of 2.0570 remains in place. The Bond's (164^09) daily MACD continues as positive, keeping the Target of 165^23 intact there. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on mostly moderate volatility; the largest present change is Silver's (17.675) being -0.5%; Oil (49.24, -0.1%) is sporting the narrowest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at just 27%; the Swiss' (1.0114. +0.3%) has the widest at 89%. New Homes due @ 07:00 PT.
25 Oct '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1380) is up sharply, +2.0%, and leads the otherwise moderate BEGOS Markets' EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 165%; the up move is not enough to nix our Market Rhythm Target of 2.0570, the daily Price Oscillator still well-negative. Silver (17.740) made its Target (17.875) yesterday; that for the Bond (cur 163^28, tar 165^23) remains intact per the positive daily MACD; the Bond and EuroCurrencies are lightly weaker. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to curl higher; those for Oil (20.75) are notably falling. Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
24 Oct '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed on moderate volatility, Oil (50.48) off the most at -1.0%, Silver (17.630) up the most at +0.6%; rangiest is the Spoo (2144.00, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 65%. Our three open Market Rhythm Targets remain as follows: Silver (tar 17.875), Copper (cur 2.0920, tar 2.0570) and the Bond (cur 165^03, tar 165^23). The Gold Update specifies the upward curling of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as a buy signal for both Gold (1264.8) and Silver. Q3 Earnings Season off to a more robust start this time 'round.
21 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond's (164^23) daily MACD has confirmed as positive, (as have the daily Parabolics flipped to Long), for a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's opening of 164^13) of 165^23. Targets remain in place for Silver (cur 17.510, tar 17.875) and Copper (cur 2.0995, tar 2.0570). The BEGOS markets are little changed and volatility is light-to-moderate: Oil (50.87) is up the most at +0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.09155, -0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 71%. Again, we're watching the PMs' "Baby Blues" curl higher at Market Trends. We've no scheduled EconBaro data.
20 Oct '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are turning higher for the 1st time in basically 1 month; this ought bode well for Silver's (17.645) Market Rhythm Target of 17.875, in concert with its positive 12-hr. MACD. Copper's (2.0945) daily MACD has worked lower still, its Target of 2.0570 being maintained. The Bond's (164^06) daily Parabolics remain near to flipping Long (at 164^30), plus the daily MACD there is close as well to turning positive. The BEGOS Markets on balance are lightly volatile. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi, plus Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Existing Homes and LEI: 07:00 PT.
19 Oct '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets which are basically "unch"-to-higher, the Dollar (97.780) seemingly having run out of puff in its last 3 sessions. Gold (1270.5) and Silver (17.720) are firming further following their sell-off of 2 weeks ago: both PMs have climbed above their largest resistors (1257 Gold, 17.50 Silver) per our Market Profiles. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both Silver (tar 17.875) and Copper (cur 2.1010, tar 2.0570). Nearing is a daily Parabolic flip to Long for the Bond (164^13, flip 165^12). Housing: 05:30 PT; Fed Book: 11:00 PT.
18 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Silver (17.655, +1.0%) is stepping up toward getting to its Market Rhythm Target of 17.875, the 12-hr. MACD at its highest level since going positive last Wednesday. Copper (2.1110, +0.3%), whilst higher, finds its daily Price Oscillator as its lowest level since last Friday, the Target thus still in place there for 2.0570. Oil's (Dec 50.82, +0.9%) cac volume has shifted from Nov, for which 1st notice for deliver is next Monday (24 Oct). Save for the Swiss (1.0140) which is close to "unch", the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate. CPI: 05:30 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
17 Oct '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for Silver (cur 17.430, tar 17.875) is still alive given the positive stance of the 12-hr. MACD. As anticipated, Copper's (2.1125) daily Price Oscillator confirmed going negative at Friday's close; we've set a Target for the red metal of 2.0570. 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, save for the Spoo (2123.50, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate. The PMs continue to firm, The Gold Update noting Gold's (1254.6) weekly trading range going from the year's widest down move 2 weeks ago to its least last week. NY Empire: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT.
14 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Silver's (17.515) Market Rhythm Target of 17.875 remains in play, the 12-hr. MACD becoming more positive. Copper's (2.1195) daily MACD has provisionally crossed negative: if confirmed by day's end, we'd look for a Target some 0.0600 points ($1,500) lower from Sunday's opening level (at 15:00 PT). The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and volatility is light-to-moderate; Oil (51.00) is the upside leader at +0.9%, whilst the Bond (163^29) leads to the downside at -0.5%. Per Market Values, Gold (1254.7) remains some 70 points "low". 6 metrics hit the EconBaro by 07:00 PT.
13 Oct '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: As anticipated, Silver's (17.595, +0.5%) 12-hr. MACD confirmed crossing positive giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 17.875 (ideally from 17.535 at 12:00 PT yesterday). Save for Copper (2.1600, -0.7%) and the Spoo (2119.75, -0.4%) the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, and volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for 7 of the 8 components are falling, the exception be those for Oil, (50.17, +0.3%). At Market Values, Gold (1261.00, +0.3%) still shows some 70 points below its BEGOS Valuation (1331). Ex/Im Pricing due at 05:30 PT.
12 Oct '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are notably muted, being little changed and volatility light. Only one EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing has exceeded 50%, that being the Euro's (1.10565) at 83%; the Bond's (163^30) is the narrowest at 30%. Per yesterday's note, Silver's (17.495) 12-hr. MACD provisionally is crossing to positive: if confirmed today at 12:00 PT, we'd then assess a Market Rhythm Target of 0.340 points higher ($1,700/cac); that said, per Market Profiles, Silver shows notable trading resistance at 17.700, as does Gold (1256.0) at 1257.0. FOMC 20/21 Sep Minutes @ 11:00 PT.
11 Oct '16, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0166) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0165; should the PMs (which are lower this session) nonetheless continue their firming, we're eying a potential positive crossing in Silver's (17.505) 12-hr. MACD in the next day or two. Otherwise, save for the Bond (164^11) which is a pip above "unch", the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, but none by at least -1%, and volatility is moderate. Off the most is Oil (50.71, -0.9%), and rangiest is the Euro (1.11060, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 98%. Q3 Earnings Season has begun.
10 Oct '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Strongest is Oil (50.18) +1.3%, followed by Silver (17.780) +1.2%. The Swiss' (1.0231, -0.3%) daily MACD continues to work more negatively, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 1.0165. Gold's (1264.0, +0.4%) settle on Friday (1258.6) completed a perfect "Golden Ratio" retracement as detailed in The Gold Update; at Market Profiles, 1257 shows as trading support, with 1270 as resistance; mind too Gold's positioning at both Market Values and Market Magnets. No "scheduled" incoming EconBaro data due today nor tomorrow.
07 Oct '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As anticipated, the Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 164^28, tar 171^22) was nixed, the daily MACD confirming as negative at yesterday's close. The like study for the Swiss (cur 1.0220, tar 1.0165) is still in play. Again the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, with volatility light-to-moderate. Gold (1258.6) is consolidating in the 1250-1260 area of the 1280-1240 support zone; Silver's (17.385) consolidation is in the 17.20-17.40 area; at our Market Values page, Gold is more than 70 points below its BEGOS valuation. Jobs data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
06 Oct '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Precious Metals continue to hold their ground after Tue's fallout. Specific to Gold (1269.8), price is within the 1280-1240 support zone (regularly displayed over the past year in The Gold Update's weekly bars chart); at Market Profiles, Gold's overhead trading resistors to initially reclaim are 1274 and then 1287, given the "way overdone" selling notion, let alone no hesitation in "The Whiny 1290s". Per the 03 Oct comment, Copper's (2.1545) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over in earnest. The BEGOS Markets are barely changed either way and volatility again is light.
05 Oct '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold (1276.0) & Silver (17.885) are firming following yesterday's sell-off, its being "way overdone" given nothing fundamentally new nor surprising, nor move of similar magnitude in the Dollar (96.025), Sterling (1.2750), etc. The BEGOS Markets are mostly mildly higher and volatility light. The Bond's (166^02) daily MACD still is positive, but weakening such that the Market Rhythm Target of 171^22 could soon get nixed; we've a Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0276, tar 1.0165), its daily MACD confirmed as negative. ADP: 05:15 PT; Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; FactOrdrs/ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
04 Oct '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver (18.765) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 18.875; the Bond's (168^12) Target per its positive daily MACD remains 171^22. The Dollar (96.110) is rising as Sterling (1.2875) is down to levels not seen since the Buck's high in '85; thus with the EuroCurrencies also falling, we've the Swiss (1.0245) with a provisional negative daily MACD crossing: if confirmed, we'd have a Target of .0096 points lower ($1,200/cac) from the GLOBEX opening price later today at 15:00 PT. Save for the Bond and Spoo (2154.75), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are down, and volatility moderate.
03 Oct '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Q4 kicks off with light-to-moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets which are mixed and little changed, save for Oil (46.87, +1.3%). Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Bond (cur 168^07, tar 171^22) per its still-positive daily MACD, and Silver (cur 19.230, tar 18.875) per its still-negative 12-hr. MACD. Mind Copper's (2.2005) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends): the red metal has been on a solid 21-day linear regression uptrend such that upon price and the blues dots cracking, 'twould then suggest even further selling. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending @ 07:00 PT.
30 Sep '16, 04:43 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, notwithstanding a 1-minute "flash crash" in the Swiss (cur 1.0317, low 0.9994) which occurred at 02:58 PT ('tis surmised on SNB intervention), several 1,000 cacs driving price down about 500% of the EDTR (see Market Ranges); price fully recovered a minute later. Our 2 Market Rhythm Targets remain open for the Bond (cur 169^26, tar 171^22) and Silver (cur 19.370, tar 18.875); the Spoo's (2148.00) 12-hr. Price Oscillator may go negative into the weekend. Personal Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; Chi PMI due @ 07:00 PT.
29 Sep '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: As anticipated, Gold's (1323.3) Market Rhythm Target of 1364.1 was nixed yesterday as the 12-hr. MACD confirmed its negative cross. Hedging that, Silver's (19.120) Target of 18.875 remains in place, its 12-hr. MACD working further negative. The Bond's (168^13) Target of 171^22 is still alive, given the positive daily MACD. Save for the barely up Swiss (1.0352), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS markets are mildly lower on light-to-moderate volatility: Silver is the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 90%. Final Q2 GDP read: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes due: 07:00 PT.
28 Sep '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver's (19.200) 12-hr. MACD confirmed the negative cross, for which we've a Market Rhythm Target of 18.875; there is dominant trading resistance on the white metal's Market Profile at 19.300. Still in place is the Target for the Bond (cur 169^04, tar 171^22) per its positive daily MACD; as for Gold (cur 1328.9, tar 1364.1), its 12-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing negative (confirm would be at 12:00 PT) which would nix that target. Just as at this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets again are little changed and volatility is moderate. Durable Orders come due at 05:30 PT.
27 Sep '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, no one component presently changed by > 1% either way, and volatility is again moderate. Gold's (1341.0) 12-hr. MACD remains positive, the Market Rhythm Target still in place at 1364.1. The Bond's (168^24) daily MACD confirmed a positive close at week's end, giving us a Target of 171^22 (ideally from this week's open of 167^28). Silver's (19.470) 12-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing negative (confirm would be at 12:00 PT) from which a Target of 0.340 ($1,700/cac) lower could then be set. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
26 Sep '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Surely coincident having mentioned "banking bobbles" in The Gold Update, Deutsche Bank's falling to a some 30-yr. low is weighing on the sector as well, and in turn equities, the Spoo (2148.00) -0.4%. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with the Bond (168^06, +0.3%) and EuroCurrencies (both +0.2%) getting the bid. Silver (19.505) is the weakest of the bunch, -1.4%, with Copper (2.1840) off -0.7%; however Gold (1340.4) is barely down, -0.1%; its Market Rhythm Target of 1364.1 per the positive 12-hr. MACD remains in place. New Homes due at 07:00 PT.
23 Sep '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Today lacking scheduled incoming EconData, and the Fed having passed, the BEGOS Markets are subdued: up the most and rangiest of the bunch, is Oil (46.40, +0.7%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 77%; the only other component with a tracing > than 50% is Copper (2.1930, +0.2%) at 56%, narrowest is the Spoo (2165.25, -0.2%) with an EDTR tracing of just 25%. Gold's (1341.4, +0.1%) daily MACD is improving its positive stance, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 1364.1; in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above the 0% axis.
22 Sep '16, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver (19.950) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 19.610. Similarly, Gold (1337.6) confirmed a positive crossing on its own 12-hr. MACD (from 12:00 PT yesterday at the 1334.1 level) to give us a Target of 1364.1. The Bond's (167^10) daily MACD may confirm a positive crossing by week's end. BEGOS Markets volatility is running the spectrum from light-to-robust: rangiest is Copper (2.1875) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 111%, whilst Oil's (45.83) EDTR tracing is just 24%. Save for Gold (-0.1%), the balance of the components are up. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
21 Sep '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Precious Metals have responded positively to the BOJ's focus on bringing tilt to the long end of an otherwise flat yield curve of negative rates: Gold (1324.4) is +0.5% and Silver (19.520) is +1.1%; Silver's 12-hr. MACD continues to build to the positive side toward its Market Rhythm Target of 19.610; the same study for Gold looks to confirm a positive crossing come 12:00 PT, barring a surprise rise by the Fed, ahead of which BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust; Silver leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%. FOMC: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
20 Sep '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for Oil (43.40, -0.8%) are mildly higher, the most being the Bond (166^06, 0.5%). Central Banks' monetary policy statements tonight and tomorrow notwithstanding, Silver's (19.225, "unch") 12-hr. MACD has confirmed crossing to positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 19.610; at Market Trends, the white metal's "Baby Blues continue to ascend, the only other of the 8 components also in a 21-day linreg uptrend being Copper (2.1535, "unch"). Housing Starts/Building Permits due at 05:30 PT. BOJ in the 20:00 PT hour.
19 Sep '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate to start this week highlighted with little incoming EconData and a "do nothing" FOMC policy statement (Wed 21 Sep). Components' changes are mixed, and Silver (19.180, +1.8%) has the broadest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, 86%. Narrowest is that for the Bond (165^28, +0.1%) at just 20%. We're watching Silver's 12-hr. MACD as it appears on course to go positive in the next day or two, and "ought" benefit further following the Fed; Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have crossed above their 0% axis.
16 Sep '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil (Nov 43.79) is off the most, -1.2%, of the BEGOS Markets; Oil's cac volume has moved from Oct into Nov, (1st notice for Oct delivery is Thu, 22 Sep). Cac volume has also moved from Sep into Dec for the EuroCurrencies. Save for the Bond (166^13), +0.5% but still below its Market Magnet, the balance of the 7 other components are down, again on light volatility. The Spoo's (2129.25, -0.4%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower: per Market Profiles, there are Spoo trading supports at 2126, or failing that, 2020. CPI @ 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
15 Sep '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are subdued on fairly light volatility ahead of 11 incoming metrics for the EconBaro, 8 of them hitting at 05:30 PT (including Retail Sales, PPI, Philly Fed, NY Empire Index and Q2 Current Account), followed by IndProd/CapUtil at 06:15 PT and then BusInvs at 07:00 PT. Presently, no one BEGOS component is changed either way by more than 0.3%; the rangiest of the bunch thus far is the Spoo (2118.00, +0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 62%. The Oil (43.74, +0.2%) studies noted yesterday indeed saw price drop into the 43s. Mind the EconBaro.
14 Sep '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (2.1280) having already traced 127% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the BEGOS Markets are more subdued, volatility running light-to-moderate. All 8 components are mildly in the black, only Copper being up by more than 1% (+1.2%), followed by Silver (19.090), +0.9%. At Market Trends, just the metals triumvirate reflect firmness in the "Baby Blues", the balance of the bunch all falling. Oil's (45.14) 12-hr. MACD and 8-hr. Price Oscillator are both suggesting a price drop into the upper 43s. The flow of EconData begins to pick up: Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
13 Sep '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: As anticipated yesterday, we've nixed Gold's (1328.5) Market Rhythm Target of 1361.2 given the 12-hr. MACD's confirmed negative cross. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed and volatility moderate, with Oil (45.24) the downside leader at -1.8% and the Bond (167^09) the upside leader at +0.3%; given the widening EDTRs (see Market Ranges) for most of the components, keep an eye as well on our Market Magnets page, wherein the Bond is shown at a low extreme from its Magnet. The Spoo's (2137.50, -0.6%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall in real time.
12 Sep '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold's (1329.2) 12-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing negative ('twould confirm at 12:00 PT) which would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 1361.2; in sympathy, Silver's (18.850) 8-hr. Moneyflow slid sub-50 on Friday, and the Euro's (1.12235) 4-hr Price Oscillator is turning negative, with the Dollar (95.335) firming for the 4th session in-a-row. The BEGOS Markets, having all fallen on Friday, are mixed and volatility is moderate; as noted in The Gold Update, the 21-day linreg trend is declining for all 8 components. Weakest this session are Oil (44.84), -1.9% and Silver, -1.5%.
09 Sep '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Save for the Euro (1.12705, +0.1%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Silver (19.510, -0.9%). Gold (1338.3, -0.3%) still has its 12-hr. MACD on the positive side such that our Market Rhythm Target of 1361.2 is being maintained. The Spoo's (2164.5, -0.3%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative, suggestive of move 20 points lower should that signal be confirmed. Volatility is moderate across the spectrum, the rangiest being the Bond (167^23, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 92%. Whsl Invs come due @ 07:00 PT.
08 Sep '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold's (1351.3) 12-hr. MACD remains positive such that our Market Rhythm Target is still 1361.2; that may be reinforced by the daily Parabolics having confirmed a flip to Long from yesterday's open (of 1353.5). BEGOS Markets volatility is again light-to-moderate with 6 of the 8 components mildly higher: only lower are Copper (2.0940, -0.2%) and the Bond (170^22, -0.1%). The Spoo's (2185.50) front month slides to Dec (2179.00) upon open outcry at 06:30 PT, however cac volume shan't notably shift until tomorrow, (new Fair Value is -6.80). ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT.
07 Sep '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Silver (20.020) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 19.770; price now in the low 20s, this is the "bunching" area cited in the current Gold Update; also, price per the 8-hr. moneyflow level of 92 (and which has been 80+ since 01 Sep), Silver can be regarded as short-term overbought; 'tis -0.7% this session. Gold (1353.1, -0.1%) still has its Target of 1361.2 per its positive 12-hr. MACD. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate; Silver is the weakest and Oil (45.19) is the firmest, +0.7%. Mind the down-kink in the Econ Baro. Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
06 Sep '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: The double session continues, the BEGOS Markets now positive across the board, (the Dollar [95.610] being weaker); volatility is solidly moderate. Oil (44.92) still leads to the upside, but now by +1.6% vs. 3.0% at this time yesterday. Second best is Copper (2.0915), +0.7%, followed by Gold (1336.3) and Silver (19.630), both +0.6%. The Spoo's (2179.75) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are sub-0% and dropping steadily despite last week's late price bounce. The Blues for the Euro (1.11710) and Swiss (1.0225) in real-time are below crossing their 0% lines. ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
05 Sep '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: This Sunday-Tuesday session is finding the BEGOS Markets on balance to the upside with light-to-moderate volatility. The outlier is Oil (45.54), +3.0% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 167%. Only the Bond (169^05) is presently lower, -0.1%. Per the 02 Sep comment, Silver's daily Parabolics are now confirmed as Long for a Market Rhythm Target (from the session's open of 19.470) of 19.770. Gold's (1330.3) now-positive 12-hr. MACD has a Target (from Friday's 1327.2 at 12:00) of 1361.2. StateSide Labor Day trading halt from 10:00 PT to 15:00 PT.
02 Sep '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with little net change and volatility mostly running light ahead of another barrage of EconData. We've no open Market Rhythm Targets at present; Silver's (18.880) daily Parabolics would flip Long were price to eclipse 19.120 today; that price is within the EDTR (see Market Ranges) were Silver to work higher this session; as well, Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling higher, (in real time now -78% vs. -83% yesterday). The Spoo's (1269) Blues in real-time have crossed sub-0%. Payrolls & Trade Deficit at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
01 Sep '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0165) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0134; in a year with many "nixed" targets, 'tis good to finally be seeing signals again following through to Targets. The balance of the week is thick with incoming EconData for the EconBaro, and BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, yet no one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.5%: Oil (44.64) is weakest, -0.5%, and Copper (2.0880) firmest, +0.4%. Rangiest is the Swiss with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%. Revised Productivity for Q2 @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction @ 07:00 PT.
31 Aug '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil (45.96) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 46.16; the Swiss' (1.0164) Target of 1.034 remains in place as the daily MACD continues its negative course. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with volatility at best light, save for Silver (18.790) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 73%; no other component's tracing exceeds 50%, the Spoo's (2175.00) at only 26%. Gold's (1317.0) 21-day linreg downtrend, with its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having yet to reach the -80% mark, sees 1306 structural support. ADP: 5:15 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
30 Aug '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the sole riser being Oil (47.24, +0.6%); Oil's 12-hr. MACD remains negative, maintaining our our Market Rhythm Target of 46.16. The Swiss' (1.0211) daily MACD also remains negative, the Target there being 1.0134. Volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver (18.835) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 62%, the lightest tracing being that of the Spoo (2179.00) at just 28%. The components barely budged either way from Stan Fisher's fairly uninformative interview (Bloomy) last hour. Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
29 Aug '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil's (47.02) 12-hr. MACD continues to work lower, our Market Rhythm Target of 46.16 still in place. The Swiss (1.0230) has confirmed a negative daily MACD crossing for a Target of 1.0134. Copper's (Sep 2.0795) cac volume is moving into Dec (2.0840), as is that for Silver (Sep 18.560, Dec 18.660). BEGOS Markets volatility is light, but ought pep up during the week as 21 metrics hit the EconBaro. Silver is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 62%; least rangy is Oil with a 34% tracing, but off the most at -0.6%. Personal Inc/Spd due at 05:30 PT.
26 Aug '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility continues as light with GDP data (05:30 PT) and Yellen remarks (text 07:00 PT, delivery 08:00 PT) in the week's balance. Perhaps in anticipation of "nothing", the PMs are the component leaders, Silver (18.650, +0.8%) and Gold (1330.0, +0.4%). Oil (47.13) is the weak link, -0.5%, its 12-hr. MACD working negatively such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 46.16. The Spoo's (2173.25) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed going negative, the suggested Target being 2148.5, but that could be quickly expunged per Yellen's Jackson Hole speech.
25 Aug '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper (2.0820) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880; Oil's (46.44) Target of 46.16 remains in place per the negative crossing of the 12-hr. MACD. The Spoo's (2169.75) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally turned negative, (confirm would be at 12:00 PT), which could point to a Target some 20 points lower, (albeit we've Jackson Hole FedSpeak these next 2 days). BEGOS Markets volatility is light and changes presently minimal, the most being Oil's off -0.8%. Gold's (1327.5) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have dropped below their 0% level. Durables @ 05:30 PT.
24 Aug '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: One might characterize the BEGOS Markets week-to-date as being messy; they've a mild downside bias this session, with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings fairly narrow. Copper (2.1050) has the widest EDTR tracing at 58%; vol is still in the Sep cac, for which our Market Rhythm Target remains 2.0880 (or 2.0980 basis Dec). Oil's (47.27) 12-hr. MACD has confirmed a negative cross for a Target of 46.16, (ideally from entering at the confirm price of 47.36); Oil is in its 3rd straight session of creating (thus far) a "lower high", (Invs @ 07:30 PT). Existing Homes @ 07:00 PT.
23 Aug '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.1330) daily Price Oscillator is presently at its lowest level (-0.54) since confirming as negative on 08 Aug; thus our Market Rhythm Target for 2.0880 remains in place; (rolling to the Dec cac ought revise that to 2.0980). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, Oil (47.04) the weakest of the bunch -0.7%; Silver (19.015) is the firmest, +0.7%, albeit its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling sharply; those for Gold (1344.4) look to pass sub-zero going into tomorrow's session as the 21-day LinReg trend turns negative. New Homes at 07:00 PT.
22 Aug '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Bond (171^06), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the Dollar (94.670) up for the 2nd day in-a-row, but in a decidedly downtrend since its 25 Jul high (97.620). Oil (47.78) is the weakest component, -2.7%; its 12-hr. MACD has the early look of a pending negative crossing. Silver (18.920) is 2nd-weakest, -2.0%; The Gold Update points to expectations of lower PM levels near-term. Copper (2.1390) is maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880; this will likely "roll" into a Dec-priced Target in the next day or two. No EconBaro data due today.
19 Aug '16, 04:42 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0458) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0467. Copper's (2.1635) Target of 2.0880 remains intact as its daily Price Oscillator is still negative; the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun curling up, but the 21-LinReg trend is down; per Market Profiles, Copper's 2.15 area is a key trading supporter. All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently down, (the Dollar [94.395] firmer), with Silver (19.430) the weakest at -1.6%; the white metal is also the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%. Q2 Earnings Season ending: in toto, 55% bettered Y-o-Y.
18 Aug '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with the 8 component little changed to mildly higher, the exception being Copper (2.1790), +1.0%; its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880 is still in place given the ongoing negative stance of the daily Price Oscillator. Remaining in place as well is the Swiss' (1.0452) Target of 1.0467, the daily Parabolics firmly to the LongSide. Silver's (19.790) subtle week pales to that of Gold (1356.6). The EuroCurrencies are at their highest levels since late June as the Dollar (94.360) continues to weaken. Leading Indicators and Philly Fed come due at 07:00 PT.
17 Aug '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: After yesterday's fallout, the Dollar (94.900) is getting a mild boost, finding all the BEGOS Markets presently lower, Silver (19.615) and Copper (2.1510) as the downside leaders at -0.9% each; the red metal's Market Rhythm Target is intact for 2.0880, as is that for the Swiss (cur 1.0407, tar 1.0467). The Euro's (1.12850) 13/89 EMA is crossing positively and the Spoo's (2176.50) 8-hr. Price Oscillator looks to turn negative within 24 hours; both events may offer Targets. The FOMC's 27 July statement was without a press conference, the attendant minutes due at 11:00 PT.
16 Aug '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: A declining Dollar (94.590) is pushing the Swiss (1.4027, +1.3%) up towards its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0487; but strength in Copper (2.1750, +1.2%) is moving it away from its Target of 2.0880; the underlying signals remain in place for both components (Swiss' LongSide daily Parabolics and Copper's negative daily Price Oscillator). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, save for the Spoo (2183.75, -0.1%) which has traded just 38% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). PMs again firmer. CPI, Housing Starts/Permits due @ 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtil due @ 06:15 PT.
15 Aug '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light across the BEGOS Markets: only Silver (19.885) has traced more than 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 72%; 'tis also the strongest component, +0.9%. The balance of the bunch are up, save for the Bond (172^31), -0.1%. The Swiss (1.0287) is maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0487, as is that for Copper (cur 2.1440, tar 2.0880; rolling the red metal into the Dec cac may occur with a revised Target should it not first be reached/nixed). The week's material dose of data brings the NY Empire Index at 05:30 PT and NAHB Housing at 07:00 PT.
12 Aug '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1490) is the weakest BEGOS Market, -1.7% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 117%; the move favours our Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880, the daily Price Oscillator presently at its lowest reading since confirming negative on 05 Aug; the Swiss' (1.0265) Target of 1.0467 remains in place per the LongSide daily Parabolics, (the nix area now 1.0214-to-1.0202). Volatility is otherwise fairly light for the balance of the components ahead of a rash of metrics for the Econ Baro: PPI and Retail Sales at 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment and BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
11 Aug '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Both Market Rhythm Targets remain in place, that for the Swiss (cur 1.0280, tar 1.0467) by its LongSide daily Parabolics, and that for Copper (cur 2.1785, tar 2.0880) by its negative daily Price Oscillator. Should the PMs get a boost, the 12-hr. MACD for Silver (21.180) looks to cross positive; the white metal is sporting the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 91%. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes mixed: up the most is Oil (14.74, +0.6%); off the most is the Bond (172^30, -0.2%), sitting below Market Profile resistance of 173^10. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
10 Aug '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets picking up the pace as volatility is moderate-to-robust. EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings exceed 100% for the Euro (1.12025, +0.6%), Silver (20.345, +2.4%) and Copper (2.1900, +1.7%); but red metal's daily Price Oscillator is negative such that our Market Rhythm Target is intact for 2.0880. The Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0264, tar 1.0467) escaped getting nixed, the daily Parabolics still Long and price +0.6%. With the Precious Metals firm, Gold (1358.0, +0.9%), the only component in the red is Oil (42.55, -0.5%). Treasury Budget @ 11:00 PT.
09 Aug '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0193, tar 1.0467) remains alive, but not far from being nixed should the daily Parabolics flip to Short, (they're not far away in the 1.0160-1.0175 area). Copper's (2.1570) daily Price Oscillator is confirmed as negative for a Target of 2.0880. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and again volatility is light: only one component has traced more than 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, that being Oil's (43.28) at 54%, with price +1.0% as 'twas at this time yesterday. Q2 Productivity due @ 05:30PT; Whsl Invs due @ 07:00 PT.
08 Aug '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: As noted, we nixed our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (cur 2180.50, tar 2125.50) as stocks celebrated the robust July payrolls report, confirming the 8-hr. Price Oscillator positive on Friday at 08:00 PT. As covered in The Gold Update, the Precious Metals suffered one of their worst days of the year, (albeit for the week were down just mildly). Still, our Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0206, tar 1.0467) is intact, the daily Parabolics remaining Long despite price sinking for the 4th straight session. Oil (42.40, +1.0%) leads the otherwise mixed BEGOS Markets; volatility is light.
05 Aug '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: With payrolls due at 05:30 PT, BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the components mixed across the board with little change either way. The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0295, tar 1.0467) remains viable as the daily Parabolics are still to the LongSide, as is the Target for the Spoo (cur 2164.25, tar 2125.50) by its 8-hr. Price Oscillator still negative, albeit an upside response to the payrolls data can nix that. As noted (03 Aug), Copper's (2.1670) daily Price Oscillator is now poised to go negative, perhaps as soon as today. The Trade Deficit also comes due at 05:30 PT.
04 Aug '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BOE's 1st rate cut in 7 years has boosted the Bond (173^06) +0.6%, the best gainer in BEGOS; also higher is the Spoo (2161.75, +0.2%) and Gold (1366.1, +0.1%); the balance of the bunch are lower with both Copper (2.1700) and Oil (40.63), off better than -1.0%. Still in place are Market Rhythm Targets for the Swiss (cur 1.0291, tar 1.0467) and Spoo (tar 2125.50); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall. Components' volatility is moderate, led by Silver's (20.415) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 97%. FactOrdrs @ 07:00 PT.
03 Aug '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Volatility slips back to subtle across the BEGOS Markets, which on balance are down, save for the Bond (172^13, +0.3%) and Gold (1371.0, +0.1%). The daily Parabolics on the Swiss (1.0354) are still Long, thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1.0467 is still in place; the Spoo's (2148.00) 8-hr. Price Oscillator has gone negative (from 2151.50) for a Target of 2125.50; Copper's (2.1925) daily Price Oscillator is on pace to go negative by week's end for a Target upon signal confirmation of 0.0680 points lower ($1,700/cac). ADP employment @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
02 Aug '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Rangier moves across the BEGOS Markets as volatility is solidly moderate, perhaps pepped up by Japan's approval of ¥13.5 trillion ($132 billion) in fiscal measures. 6 of the 8 components are higher, led by Silver (20.740, +1.2%) and Oil (40.53, +1.1%); the 2 weak links are the Bond (171^27, -0.5%) and the Spoo (2159.00, -0.3%); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are noticeably ratcheted lower in real-time, their 1st crack in over a month. The Swiss' (1.0380) Market Rhythm Target remains 1.0467 per the Long daily Parabolics. Personal Inc/Spd due at 05:30 PT.
01 Aug '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Another Market Rhythm Target nixed, this being for the Bond (cur 173^28, tar 160^01) as the daily Parabolics swing to Long; those for the Swiss (1.0352) remain Long as does its Target of 1.0467. August's "dog days" begin with a whimper, as BEGOS Markets volatility is as light as it gets, 6 of the 8 components having EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of < 50%; Oil (41.04) is the rangiest with a 63% tracing, and is off the most at -0.8%. Least volatile is Gold (1355.4) with just an 18% tracing, but see the BEGOS Standings in The Gold Update. ISM(Mfg) & Construction: 07:00 PT.
29 Jul '16, 04:46 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0282) daily Parabolics have confirmed a swing to Long, (from the session's open of 1.0227), for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0467; still maintaining its Target is the Bond (cur 172^16, tar 168^01), also leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 122%, followed by the Swiss at 104%; (the non-BEGOS component Yen [0.96940] has a 212% tracing post-BOJ statement). 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, as only the EuroCurrencies are higher: Oil (40.81) is the weakest, -0.7%. 1st look at Q2 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT. UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Again, the Swiss' (1.0186) daily Parabolics are provisionally poised to confirm a swing to Long at the close; Silver's (20.450) daily Parabolics may confirm to Long should price trade up through 20.630 today; and the Bond's (173^13) daily Parabolics remain Short, but now just about 1 1/2 points away from nixing the 168^01 Market Rhythm Target were 174^28 to trade today. The BEGOS Markets are mostly flat to positive, the strength being in the Metals and Eurocurrencies. Volume on Gold is moving into Dec from Aug, 1st Notice for which is tomorrow. Little EconData today.
27 Jul '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0097) daily Parabolics did not confirm holding their intra-day swing to Long, thus no Market Rhythm Target was established; that study remains in place for the Bond (171^25), the Target still 168^01; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have fallen sub-0%, as have those for Gold (1320.3). BEGOS Markets volatility is light, (save for the non-component Yen [0.94960] with an EDTR [see Market Ranges] tracing of 130% on Abe's fiscal stimulus announcement). Durables due: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC statement (no press conference): 11:00 PT.
26 Jul '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Although not yet officially a BEGOS Market, a robust Yen (0.95960, +1.6%), may be supporting the Precious Metals and Bond (172^07, +0.4%); still, the latter's daily Parabolics are positioned Short, maintaining the Market Rhythm Target of 168^01. The same study on the Swiss (1.0141, -0.3%) is provisionally flipping to Long, (confirm per close). Up the most in BEGOS is Silver (19.735, +0.7%), and weakest are Oil (42.69, -0.9%) and Copper (2.2105, -0.8%). EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings show volatility as moderate. New Homes & Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
25 Jul '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As noted in The Gold Update, Gold's (1316.6) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are passing sub-0% in real time; price has moved below Market Profile support, with 1306 in the offing as a structural support; we'd further look to "The Whiny 1290s" to limit the downside. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; the weakest component is Silver (19.465, -1.1%) followed by Oil (43.80, -1.0%); none of the bunch are measurably higher. The Bond's (171^13, -0.2%) daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, the Market Rhythm Target of 168^01 still intact. No EconBaro data due today.
22 Jul '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: From a busy day of data to one lacking: the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper (2.2560) sporting the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 69%; narrowest is the Euro (1.10395) with a 33% tracing. The Bond's (171^08) Market Rhythm Target of 168^01 is still intact per the Short daily Parabolics stance; also, the Bond's daily Moneyflow measure confirmed going sub-50 (scale 100-0) from Monday's close. The Spoo's (2162.50) 8-hr. Price Oscillator is presently gliding on pace toward a negative crossing in the new week.
21 Jul '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: A busy session of ECB policy and incoming data. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, with mixed changes presently < 0.5% in either direction. The Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 171^08, tar 168^01) per its daily Parabolics remains in place; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) appear on pace to pass sub-0% come Monday; similarly, those blue dots are accelerating their downside pace for both Gold (1320.6) and Silver (19.470); per The Gold Update's weekly bars, 1306 is a structural support. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; LEI: 07:00 PT.
20 Jul '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Silver (19.770) met its Market Rhythm Target of 19.855; the Bond's (171^23) Target of 168^01 is still in place. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, save for Oil (45.50) and the Spoo (2165.00); volatility is moderate, the rangiest component being Gold (1323.0) having traced 77% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Oil is the least rangy with just a 22% EDTR tracing. Again, at Market Ranges, you can see all the EDTRs narrowing. At our Earnings Season page, 71% have beaten estimates, but only 55% have actually improved, albeit we've still several weeks of Q2 reports to come.
19 Jul '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: We're nixing Oil's (45.84) Market Rhythm Target of 48.89 as the 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short; the Bond's (172^18) Target of 168^01 remains intact per its Short daily Parabolics, albeit price appears low by its Market Magnet. We've a new daily Parabolics Short Target for Silver (20.055, tar 19.855), ideally from an entry of 20.115. BEGOS Markets are mixed with little change either way, and volatility is essentially light. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs are peaking across the spectrum, supporting the narrower trading days we've been seeing of late. Housing/Permits: 05:30 PT.
18 Jul '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Cac volume for Oil (Aug 45.60) is moving into Sep (46.28), our Market Rhythm Target (48.89) remaining in place as the 12-hr. Parabolics are still to the LongSide. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; the weakest component is Silver (19.845), -2.2%, the daily Parabolics of which should confirm a swing to Short at day's end; up the most is the Spoo (2157.25), +0.5%; The Gold Update cites the S&P's (2161.74) record high despite lack of both supportive earnings and moneyflow. The Bond's (172^03) daily Parabolics have confirmed a ShortSide Target of 168^01).
15 Jul '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Incoming data is plentiful later this morning for the EconBaro from the NY Empire Index, Retail Sales, CPI, IndPrd/CapUtil, UofM Sentiment and BusInvs. The BEGOS Markets are little changed, with volatility light-to-moderate: Copper (2.2550) is up the most at +0.6%, and Silver (20.235) is off the most at -0.6%. Our Market Rhythm Target for Oil (Sep 46.19, tar 48.89) is still in play as the 12-hr. Parabolics remain Long. The Bond's (172^20) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short (should price trade down today through 172^15), which would set a Target of some 3 full points lower.
14 Jul '16, 04:40 Pacific Time: Oil's (Aug 45.44, Sep 46.15) Market Rhythm Target (Sep 48.89) is still in place as yesterday's price fallout was not sufficient to flip the 12-hr. Parabolics to Short; Oil is firmer today, +0.7%, albeit its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 28% is the narrowest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is otherwise moderate. Gold (1328.2) is the weakest component, -1.1%; the yellow metal has broken below various Market Profile supports; recall the current Gold Update citing 1322 as a key level to hold. Despite Brexit, the BOE "unexpectedly" kept its rate steady. PPI due at 05:30 PT.
13 Jul '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: We're replacing a would-be Market Rhythm Target for Aug Oil (cur 46.20) from yesterday's positive 6-hr. MACD crossing with a Sep Oil (46.91) Target of 48.89 per the 12-hr. Parabolics having flipped to Long; presently, Oil (-0.9%) is the only BEGOS Market not in the black; Copper (2.2430) is up the most at +1.3% and has the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 129%; otherwise, components' volatility is moderate. The Bond (174^22) and Precious Metals are firmer which is putting a damper on the record-high Spoo (2146.25). Fed's Tan Tome due at 11:00 PT.
12 Jul '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil's (45.95) 6-hr, MACD looks to confirm a positive crossing at 06:00 PT, from which a Market Rhythm Target of 1.60 points ($1,600/cac) may be established; Oil +3.1% is the strongest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is moderate, with Copper (2.1880, +1.9%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 97%. Gold (1348.6) is the weakest component, -0.6%, and least rangy is the Spoo (2140.75, +0.5%) with just a 40% EDTR tracing; at Market Magnets, the Spoo is at an extreme level above its Magnet. Q2 Earnings Season has begun. Whsl Invs are due at 07:00 PT.
11 Jul '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Not as yet a BEGOS Market on the website, the Yen (.97845) following Abe's victory is sporting an "expected daily trading range" (EDTR) tracing of 132%; for the BEGOS components themselves, their tracings are far more subdued, the widest being Copper's (2.1580) at 87%; 2nd is Gold (1359.8, 76%), and 3rd is Silver (20.430, 69%). The balance of the tracings (vis-à-vis what is "expected" on the Market Ranges page) are sub-50%. Changes are mixed, Copper the strongest, +1.6%, and Gold the weakest, -0.6%. The Gold Update assesses price's return up to Base Camp 1377.
08 Jul '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil (45.67) met its Market Rhythm Target of 45.52; still, new Targets are appearing at a below-average rate: our Market Rhythms page presently shows only 15 studies (of a possible 280 tested daily) meeting the list's eligibility, reflecting an ongoing lack of follow-through conviction after signal triggerings. The session's volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again very subdued: the Bond's (176^13) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leads the pack at just 53%. Only Oil, +1.1% is posting a change of more than 1% in either way; weakest is Gold (1358.3), -0.3%. Payrolls: 05:30 PT.
07 Jul '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: A very unruffled session with BEGOS Markets volatility essentially light: the widest EDTR tracing is Silver's (19.960) at 60%, also the weakest component at -1.0%. Oil's (47.96) 12-hr MACD remains negative and thus we maintain the Market Rhythm Target of 45.52; contra there, Oil's 6-hr. MACD may confirm a cross to positive at 12:00 PT. At Market Magnets, Silver, Gold (1364.5), the Spoo (2091.75) and the Bond (176^04) all appear quite stretched to the upside; the Bond at Market Profiles has a key supporter at 175^28, else price ought drop into the 174^20s. ADP due at 05:15 PT.
06 Jul '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold (1374.2) has hit our revised 2016 target of "Base Camp 1377"; we'll re-evaluate that in the next Gold Update. As anticipated, Oil's (46.03) 12-hr MACD did confirm as negative (at 12:00 PT from 46.72) for which the Market Rhythm Target is 45.52. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-moderate, the Precious Metals leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, whilst the EuroCurrencies are the most docile. Silver (20.430) is strongest, +2.1%, and Copper (2.1385) is weakest, -2.1%. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes (14-15 Jun): 11:00 PT.
05 Jul '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Silver's (19.820, -0.2%) wild Sunday-Tuesday session continues, as noted (yesterday) trading en route as high 21.225; its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing for this dual session is 301%, vs. Gold's (1350.4, +0.4%) 85% tracing; as noted in both the 01 Jul comment and The Gold Update, Silver is at an extreme per its Market Magnet. The thinnest tracing is the Spoo's (1287.50, -0.4%) at 65%. Oil's (47.78, -3.0%, EDTR tracing 102%) 12-hr MACD is poised to confirm a negative crossing come 12:00 PT, which from then ought qualify for a Market Rhythm Target lower by 1.20 points.
04 Jul '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The white hot metal Silver (20.365) remains the stalwart story, +2.6% in this Sunday-Tuesday GLOBEX session, (5-hr. trading halt today from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT); trading up to 21.225 put Silver year-to-date +53.5%; the comprehensive 2016 BEGOS Market Standings (per Friday) are in The Gold Update, wherein we've also raised this year's Gold (1354.4) target to "Base Camp 1377". The session is otherwise fairly muted with no one component (save for Silver) presently changed by more than 0.7% in either direction, with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings sub-100%. Happy 4th!
01 Jul '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Silver's (19.285) strength continues, starting Q2 presently +2.6%; she leads the session's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%; also higher are the Bond (174^26, +1.2%) with an EDTR tracing of 133%, followed by Gold (1337.0, +0.9%), tracing 70% of its EDTR, thus clearly the more docile of the PMs; at Market Magnets, Silver is pushing to an upside extreme, but fundamentally so justified. Copper (2.1720, -1.3%) and Oil (48.10, -0.6%) are the losers; Oil's 12-hr MACD (see 29 Jun) is whippy rather than with follow-through. ISM(Mfg) & Construction due @ 07:00 PT.
30 Jun '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Those BEGOS Markets most marred following the pro-Brexit vote continue to recover, the Spoo (2069.25) presently having recouped 64% of its own fallout; similarly, Oil (49.31) has regained 75% of its loss; also coming back up, albeit by lesser percentages, are the EuroCurrencies. Volatility this last day of Q2 is light-to-moderate, and the components are mixed, no one presently changed by more than 0.5% in either direction; the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is by the Swiss (1.0286) at 71%; Oil is the most subtle with just a 28% EDTR tracing. Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT.
29 Jun '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Sister Silver's (18.310) is Queen of the BEGOS Markets, +2.4%, the Spoo (2042.00) the 2nd-best performer being at just 0.7%. The white metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 133%, the Spoo 2nd again there with just a 62% tracing. Copper (2.1650) is the weak link, -0.6%. Oil's (48.27) 12-hr. MACD is poised to cross to positive within its next few periods. Components that had reached extreme deviations from their Market Magnets have reversed course, the exception being the Bond (173^16) still appearing as "high". Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT.
28 Jun '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate in a reversal of directions seen from the prior two sessions; thus the notable gainers are Oil (47.56, +2.0%), Copper (2.1640, +1.7%) and the Spoo (2004.25, +1.1%), the biggest 2 losers being Gold (1312.2, -1.2%) and Silver (17.620, -0.9%). Cac volume for both the white and red metals is moving from Jul into Sep. At Market Magnets, the Spoo's price extreme deviation is stark, however at Moneyflow, the S&P 500 "ought be" some 200 points than 'tis. Final read on Q1 GDP at 05:30 PT. Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
27 Jun '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Friday's effect upon the BEGOS Markets' EDTRs (see Market Ranges) has clearly widened them; given that context, volatility thus far today is moderate-to-robust, the Bond (172^26, +1.3%) the rangiest component with a 133% EDTR tracing; those for the balance of the bunch are sub-100% with changes presently of less than 1% either way, save for Gold (1333.4, +1.1%). We've presently no open Market Rhythm Targets; one ought mind those making our Market Rhythms page with a grain of volatility salt. Mind, too, our Market Values and Market Magnets pages for extremes.
24 Jun '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Brexit's "unexpected" passing in the eyes of the BEGOS Markets has effected one of the rangiest sessions since 2008's Black Swan. The Bond (171^03, +3.0%) has traced 634% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the Spoo (2023.00, -4.3%) 606%, and Gold (1321.1, +4.9%) 572%; Gold's high of 1362.6 is its best level since 18 Mar '14. Oil (47.68, -4.9%) is the weakest component. Volatility is sufficiently extreme that day-trading margin requirements remain double for the PMs and U.S. Indices, and triple for currency pairs and European Indices. Durables due @ 05:30 PT.
23 Jun '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Week-to-date, the BEGOS Markets are reacting as if Brexit shan't pass; UK polls close at 14:00 PT; day-trading margin requirements have been doubled/trebled, which can lead to thin, volatile conditions; EDTRs (see Market Ranges) tracings in this session are already over 100% for the Bond (166^19), EuroCurrencies, and the Spoo (2096.25). Oil (49.84) is up the most, at +1.7%, and both the Bond and Gold (1261.9) off the most at -0.6%. Silver (17.250) has not been hit as has Gold this week (-1.5% vs. -3.1% respectively); Copper's (2.1470) week is +4.6%. New Homes due: 07:00 PT.
22 Jun '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: We've nixed Oil's (50.15) Market Rhythm Target of 46.33, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed as positive at 00:00 PT (midnight). Trading activity appears to be tightening ahead of tomorrow's Brexit vote; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, with presently little change either way; the EuroCurrencies are leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the Swiss' (1.0477) at 81% and the Euro's (1.13250) at 69%. The pullback in the PM's this week below their Market Profile supports suggest Brexit shan't pass. Yellen's testimony/Existing Homes both at 07:00 PT.
21 Jun '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold (1273.5) is under the gun, -1.5%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed (4 up, 4 down) on moderate-to-robust volatility; Gold is the rangiest as well, tracing 133% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil (49.36) is lower too, -1.0%, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator still negative, (albeit not nearly as much as 'twas), its Market Rhythm Target thus still in place for 46.33. We are wary of whip in the Euro's (1.13535) daily Parabolics, (note there are no Euro Rhythms presently in the list on the Market Rhythms page). Yellen congressional testimony today & tomorrow at 07:00 PT.
20 Jun '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2085.25) is the strongest, +1.3%, of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (1281.2), the weekly close of which topped 1300 for the first time since 2014, is the weakest, -1.6%. Most rangy is the Swiss (1.0466), nearly "unch", but with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 130%, followed by Silver's (17.335, -1.1%) 102% tracing. Both PMs are presently just clinging to the underside of their most dominant apices by their Market Profiles. As noted in The Gold Update, this week has the Brexit vote (Thu 23 Jun) and the EconData calendar is light.
17 Jun '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, 6 of the 8 being up. The weak links are the Bond (169^10, -0.3%) and the Spoo (2065.75, -0.2%). The Precious Metals & EuroCurrencies are firmer following a material intra-session turnabout yesterday: for Gold (1291.5) 'twas on a points basis the widest trading-day range since 18 Feb, whilst Silver (17.430) tied for its 3rd rangiest day year-to-date. Oil's (Aug 47.49) Market Rhythm Target is still 46.33, the 12-hour Price Oscillator moving lower despite price in this session +1.6%. Housing Starts/Permits due at 05:30 PT.
16 Jun '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Gold (1309.0) has made a high for the year (1316.8) as post-Fed the Precious Metals and EuroCurrencies exhibit robust volatility, their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) well-exceeding 100%, even as the Dollar (95.060) too is firmer overnight; the Yen (0.96230) is +1.6% with an EDTR tracing of 251% (!) Copper's (2.0435) whipsaw continues, this session from a high of 2.0930 to as low as 2.0370; both the Spoo (2053.75) and Oil (47.30) are -0.4%; Oil's Market Rhythm Target on the Aug cac (cur 47.80) remains 46.33. CPI @ 05:30 PT; then Philly Fed & NAHB Housing @ 07:00 PT.
15 Jun '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Copper (2.0930) has put in its 4th vast overnight swing in the last 2 weeks, ranging this session from 2.0385 up to 2.0990, a 144% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) the red metal is up the most, +2.4%, of the BEGOS Markets, which otherwise are docile and mixed. Oil's (47.99) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has deepened, our Market Rhythm Target being maintained on the Aug cac (cur 48.54, tar 46.33). The Euro's (1.12685) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short and Golds' 6-hr. MACD turned negative yesterday. PPI/NY Empire Index - 05:30 PT; FOMC - 11:00 PT; Yellen - 11:30 PT.
14 Jun '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Oil's (48.32) 12-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed as negative at 00:00 (midnight) PT, ideally from an Aug cac entry of 49.03 (cur 48.95), for a Market Rhythm Target of 46.33; (recall we'd nixed a Jul cac Target of 46.20 back on 07 Jun); at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have begun a swift decline. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.12660, -0.6%) having traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). 7 of the 8 components are in the red: only the Bond (169^16) is up, +0.4%. Ex/Im pricing and Retail Sales come due at 05:30 PT; then BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
13 Jun '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold (1287.4) is our BEGOS Markets leader, +0.9%; 2nd strongest is Copper (2.0405), +0.7%, making it ironic that Silver (17.325) is essentially "unch". The weak ones are Oil (48.55, -1.7%) and the Spoo (2080.50, -0.3%). The Gold Update emphasizes that the myriad of nixed Market Rhythm Targets we've had of late may be a Gold-positive as overall markets uncertainty is hampering technical signals' follow-though. That said, Oil's 12-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative; if confirmed at 12:00 PT, a Target of 2.70 points lower can then be established.
10 Jun '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: As anticipated, we've nixed Copper's (2.0315) Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 as the daily MACD has crossed to negative. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. Again, Oil (49.91) is the weakest of the bunch, -1.1%, and the Bond (168^06) the strongest, +0.4%. EuroCurrencies cac volume is moving into Sep, (1st Position is Mon). At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are rising for the EuroCurrencies and PMs such that those respective 21-day linreg trends ought turn positive in the new week. UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT; Treasury Budget @ 11:00 PT. (Post inadvertently delayed until 07:10 PT)
09 Jun '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes mixed, Oil (50.84) the weakest at -1.3%; up the most is the Bond (167^12) at +0.3%. Copper's (2.0590) daily MACD remains positive, albeit further weakness in price could well nix our Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 by week's end. Also lower is the Spoo (Jun 2111.50) for which the high has come after the low in 10 of the past 13 trading days (full 23-hour Globex sessions); the Sep cac (2102.25, fair value -10.09) moves to "front month" today, but the volume shan't until tomorrow (Fri). Wholesale Inventories come due at 07:00 PT.
08 Jun '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (16.830) is the strongest (+2.7%) of the BEGOS Markets, and has covered an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 150%. Running 2nd is Oil (51.00, +1.1%) followed by Copper (2.0685, +0.8%), the latter's daily MACD still to the positive side such that its Market Rhythm Target remains at 2.1760. The balance of the bunch are also all presently higher, (the Dollar [93.620] falling for the 5th straight day). The Swiss (1.0403) is at its highest level since 05 May. Gold (1256.6) is now making session highs, but unlike Silver, the EDTR tracing is just 67%. No Econ Baro data due.
07 Jun '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: We're nixed the Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 50.11, tar 46.20) as the daily Parabolics just swung to positive moments ago; the Target for Copper (cur 2.0685, tar 2.1760) remains alive, its daily MACD still positive; but trade of the red metal has been decidedly down overnight to Market Profile support at 2.0700 on an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 147%; 'tis the weakest (-2.3%) of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed on moderate volatility. PMs are lower, yet their "Baby Blues" have notched higher. Revision to Q1 Productivity: 05:30 PT; Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
06 Jun '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain as follows: Copper (cur 2.1305, tar 2.1760) per the positive daily MACD, and Oil (cur 49.17, tar 46.20) per the negative daily Parabolics. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Up the most is Oil at +0.6% whilst down the most are the Bond (166^14), Euro (1.13480) and Gold (1244.5), all -0.2%. The Gold Update depicts price having recovered 7 days of losses in 7 minutes on Friday after weak May payrolls, with the Fed and Brexit vote in the offing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for Gold and Silver (16.445) are curling up.
03 Jun '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1140) is on the move, +2.3% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 140%; the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 is in place, the daily MACD histogram at its highest level since crossing positive on 26 May. Far more subtle is the balance of the BEGOS Markets: both Oil (49.08) and the Spoo (2104.25) are basically "unch", the latter's EDTR tracing just 16%; Oil still has its Target of 46.20 as the daily Parabolics remain Short. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to curl upward. Payrolls/Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc)/FactOrdrs 07:00 PT.
02 Jun '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, the largest change presently being Copper (2.0640), -0.4%; the daily MACD on the red metal remains positive and thus its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 is still viable; at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" continue to ascend. Oil's (48.90) daily Parabolics have flipped to Short for a Target of 46.20. Pending Long signals appear en route to being triggered in the next few sessions on the Euro's (1.11940) daily Parabolics, the Swiss' (1.0129) daily Moneyflow, and Silver's (15.995) daily Parabolics. ECB: 04:45 PT; ADP: 05:15 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT.
01 Jun '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold (1220.4) made its Market Rhythm Target of 1221.7; but more broadly, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) may begin to curl upward from here, the yellow metal indicating a 2nd consecutive up day, as is the case for the EuroCurrencies. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with strength in the Bond (163^17) which has overcome trading resistance at 162^30 (see Market Profiles), the EuroCurrencies and Gold; the weak links are Copper (2.0645, -1.0%), Oil (48.42, -0.8%), and the Spoo (2087.50, -0.3%). ADP delayed 1 day; ISM(Mfg) & Construction due @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '16, 05:12 Pacific Time: Website error (see 04:34 comment) resolved. ...m...
31 May '16, 04:53 Pacific Time: The "2-day" Globex session continues, the PMs coming off pressure endured during Sunday evening. Gold's (1214.1) 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Long (from an entry level of 1211.7), for which we've a Market Rhythm Target of 1221.7. Silver (16.090) is the weakest component, -1.0%, but off its session low of 15.915. Up the most is the Swiss (1.0111) at +0.5%; 'tis now also the most rangy, its EDTR tracing being 107%, ahead of the Euro's (1.11645, +0.4%) 98% tracing. Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT; then Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT & Consumer Confidence @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: There has been a Website error over the last few sessions in the "Next Session Range Guesstimates" for BEGOS Markets highs and lows; this is a function of slowly bringing the Japanese Yen into the fold; the error ought be corrected by day's end. A date for the Yen's debut on the Website still has yet to be determined. Thanks for everyone's interest and patronage. ...m...
30 May '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: US and UK bourses are closed, but the "2-day" Globex session is on and active, the volatility in BEGOS Markets being moderate-to-robust. The PMs are both weaker and the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leaders: Silver (16.025) is -1.4% with a 93% tracing; Gold (1212.2) is -0.3% with an 83% tracing; Gold's 8-hr. Parabolics would presently swing to Long should 1213.6 trade. Copper (2.0995) is -0.5%, but its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 is supported as the daily MACD is further positive. Globex halts from 10:00 PT to 15:00 PT in honouring our fallen military heroes.
27 May '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with most just either side of "unch". The exceptions are Copper (2.1180) +0.9% and Oil (49.11) -0.6%. Copper's daily MACD has confirmed to positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760, (the price at confirm being 2.1000). At Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" are swinging back up; those for the EuroCurrencies and PMs are well down and prices are near the lows of their Market Profiles. 2nd look at Q1 GDP due at 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment (revised) at 07:00 PT. Yellen award/interview at 10:15 PT.
26 May '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: As anticipated, we've nixed the Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (cur 2089.28, tar 1994.50) as the daily Moneyflow has crossed above 50 (scale 0-100). 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, but volatility is light-to-moderate, the narrowest component being Oil (49.84) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 29%. Silver (16.490) is up the most at +0.9%. Cac volume is moving for the Bond (Jun 163^19) into Sep (162^06), and for Gold (Jun 1229.1) into Aug (1231.8): 1st Notice for both markets is Tue (31 May). Durables due @ 05:30 PT; Pending Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
25 May '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: The new Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 49.20, tar 45.50) was quickly nixed as of 12:00 PT yesterday as the 12-hr. Parabolics swiftly reversed to Long; our Target for the Spoo (cur 2082.00, tar 1994.50) looks to get nixed, the daily Moneyflow just a hair sub-50. Copper's (2.0810) daily MACD may cross to positive for a fresh Target by week's end. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, the components mixed with Copper leading to the upside at +0.7% and Gold (1221.5) to the downside at -0.5%. Our Market Magnets page shows Gold as negatively astray as 'tis been in 3 months.
24 May '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: We've a new Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 47.93, tar 45.50), its 12-hr. Parabolics having flipped to Short; still alive is our Target for the Spoo (cur 2052.25, tar 1994.50), its sub-50 daily Moneyflow reading at 43. Only the Spoo and Copper (2.0715) are in the black for the BEGOS Markets; volatility is moderate. Gold (1242.2) is testing the lower bounds of its 1240-1280 resistance zone; Silver (16.310) has retraced almost all of its rally that was strongly sparked back on 19 Apr; Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in free fall. New Home Sales due @ 07:00 PT.
23 May '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Moderate is the volatility for the BEGOS Markets in starting the week, with 6 of the 8 components in the red: weakest is Oil (47.82, -1.4%) followed by Silver (16.375, -1.9%). Only the Bond (164^14) and Swiss (1.0110) are marginally higher at best. The Spoo's (2047.25) daily Moneyflow continues to track sub-50 (cur 37) such that the 1994.50 Market Rhythm Target remains. Gold's (1250.2) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now down to 0% in real-time, the 21-day LinReg trend thus flat. Q1 Earnings Season is done: 'tis the 3rd in-a-row with 50% or less y-o-y improvement.
20 May '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: From our Market Rhythms page, one of the best currently listed there is Silver's (16.565) 4-hr. Parabolics: that study has recorded follow-through of at least $1,300/cac (0.260 points) in 8 of the last 10 signals, the 2 failures not reaching that amount still finishing in the black. That Market Rhythm could flip to Long in the next session or two. The BEGOS Markets are comparatively quiet, volatility essentially light and net changes mostly muted. The Spoo's (2042.75) daily Moneyflow is at 31 (scale 100-0), keeping the 1994.50 Market Rhythm Target in place. Existing Homes at 07:00 PT.
19 May '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: As anticipated the last 2 days, Gold's (1254.8) Market Rhythm Target of 1295.0 was nixed, the 8-hr. MACD confirming as negative yesterday at 08:00 PT. Otherwise, the Spoo's (2038.00) Target of 1994.50 remains intact, the daily Moneyflow now further down to 32 (scale 100-0). Again, we presently have all 8 BEGOS Markets in the red, the Dollar (95.265) firming. Silver (16.660) is off the most at -1.6%, followed by Oil (47.77) at -1.4%. Least weak is the Euro (1.12085), -0.1%. Q2 Earnings Season is winding down, only 50% improving their y-o-y quarter. Philly Fed & LEI at 07:00 PT.
18 May '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is spanning the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the rangiest being Copper (2.0585) with a 107% tracing, the narrowest being the Bond (165^13) with just a 29% tracing. Similar to this time yesterday, 7 of the 8 components are down, Oil (Jul 49.03) being the only market in the black at +0.1%; (1st notice for the Jun cac is Tue, 24 May). Gold's (1275.5) has not seen its 8-hr. MACD go negative; close that 'tis to so doing, the Market Rhythm Target of 1295.0 is still on the board. No EconBaro data due today. FOMC 27 Apr Minutes: 11:00 PT.
17 May '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold's (1274.7) 8-hr. MACD is still positive, but only barely so such that its Market Rhythm Target of 1295.0 may get nixed should the yellow metal have a down day. The Target for the Spoo (cur 2061.00, tar 1994.50) remains viable, the sub-50 daily Moneyflow reading presently 39. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and all 8 components are down, but none by more than -0.5%, that being Copper (2.0815). The Dollar (94.555) is firm. Cac volume in Jun Oil (47.73) moving into the Jul cac (48.37) over the next 24 hours. CPI and Housing Starts @ 05:30PT; IndPrd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
16 May '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.13265) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1.13145. The Spoo's (2044.50) Target of 1994.50 remains in place, the daily Moneyflow reading (scale 100-0) down to 30, the lowest since 25 Jan; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to descend. Gold (1283.2) has a new Target of 1295.0, the 8-hr. MACD having crossed to positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, the upside leaders being Oil (47.16, +1.7%), Silver (17.340, +1.2%) and Gold (+0.7%). The Swiss (1.0249) and Bond (166^17) are marginally lower. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
13 May '16, 06:35 Central Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) on light-to-moderate volatility ahead of a slew of EconData. The PMs are leading up with Silver (17.150, +0.9%) and Gold (1275.4, +0.8%); both have the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 68% each. Weakest is Oil (46.18, -0.5%). Market Rhythm Targets remain for the Spoo (cur 2053.25, tar 1994.50) and the Euro (cur 1.13600, tar 1.13145). The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop in real-time; those for the Euro are lower. PPI & Retail Sales @ 07:30 CT; Bus Invs & UofM Sentiment @ 09:00 CT.
12 May '16, 06:36 Central Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 46.62, tar 41.13) was nixed yesterday upon the 12-hr. Parabolics flipping to the LongSide; ('tis still a viable Rhythm, but we shan't chase it to the upside; Oil's "Baby Blues" [see Market Trends] are faltering a bit); still in place are the other 2 Targets for the Spoo (cur 2069.75, tar 1994.50) as its daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0) and for the Euro (cur 1.14070, tar 1.13145) per its negative 8-hr. MACD. The Spoo is firmer (+0.5%) following yesterday's fallout, but the "Baby Blues" continue to drop. Ex/Im pricing: 07:30 CT.
11 May '16, 03:42 Pacific Time: A more docile session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are higher, save for the Spoo (2073.00, -0.2%). Copper (2.1190, +1.1%) is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 72%. The strongest components is Silver, (17.405, +1.5%), its EDTR tracing at 71%. The Euro (1.14010) is the most subtle member, +0.1%, its EDTR tracing at just 37%. The 3 open Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: Oil (cur 44.67, tar 41.13), the Spoo (tar 1994.50), and the Euro (tar 1.13145). Incoming EconData is quiet, but backloaded into week's end.
10 May '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2058.75) is leading the otherwise moderate volatility thus far for the BEGOS Markets; the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing for the Spoo is 101%; that said, no one component is presently changed up or down by more than 0.4%. 3 Market Rhythm Targets remain open as follows: Oil (cur 43.25, tar 41.13), the Spoo (tar 1994.50), and the Euro (cur 1.13870, tar 1.13145). Despite the Spoo being higher, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower (-20% in real-time). Copper's (2.1010) "Baby Blues" are down to 0%. Wholesale Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
09 May '16, 04:44 Pacific Time: Moderate volatility starts the week for the BEGOS Markets with Copper (2.1210) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 95%, the red metal is -1.4%, the weakest of the bunch. Strongest is Oil (45.29), +1.6%, with less of an EDTR tracing at 52%. The three open Market Rhythm Targets remain for Oil (tar 41.13) per the ShortSide 12-hr. Parabolics, the Euro (cur 1.13920, tar 1.13145) per the negative 8-hr. MACD, and the Spoo (cur 2058.75, tar 1994.50) per the sub-50 daily Moneyflow. In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) of the Spoo are in sub-0% territory.
06 May '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT. The Bond (165^24) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 165^03. Still open is the Target for Oil (cur 43.96, tar 41.13). Two new Targets have been added: 1) the Spoo (cur 2038.75, tar 1994.50) given the daily Moneyflow having gone sub-50 (scale 100-0), and 2) the Euro (cur 1.14380, tar 1.13145) as its 8-hr. MACD has crossed to negative. Oil is off the most at -1.2%; the balance of the bunch are either side of "unch" by less than 0.3%. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are down to 0%.
05 May '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0384) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings thus far at 105% in what is otherwise moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. Weakest is Copper (2.1560) -1.2%: as suspected, its Market Rhythm Target of 2.3130 was nixed. Strongest is Oil (44.90), +1.9%, but its Target of 41.13 is still in place as the 12-hr. Parabolics remain to the ShortSide. The Spoo's (2052.00) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are poised to go sub-0% by week's end. Deep into Q1 Earnings Season, (1,743 having reported), 41% are worse year-over-year.
04 May '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, save for the Bond (164^01) at +0.1%. The Bond's Market Rhythm Target of 165^03 is in place, however Copper's (2.1980) Target of 2.3130 likely looks to be nixed as the daily MACD flirts with going negative; we've added a new Target for Oil (cur 43.76, tar 41.13) per the aforementioned 12-hr. Parabolics now confirmed to the ShortSide. Gold (1277.7) has moved back into the 1240-1280 "resistance" zone: we're anticipating that to morph into "support". Silver's (17.235) Market Profile support = 17.100. Much EconData from 05:15 PT - 07:00 PT.
03 May '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: The RBA's "surprise" rate cut (to a record low 1.75%) has empowered both the Bond (163^13) and EuroCurrencies to the demise of the Dollar (92.270) and the Spoo (2060.25). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss (1.0560) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 148%. The PMs are not getting as much notice as one would expect: they are the least volatile of the bunch. Oil's (44.33) 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short; confirm would come at 12:00 PT, from which time we'd set a Market Rhythm Target lower by 2.60 ($2,600/cac).
02 May '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Nikkei's 3% slide is not continuing into Western bourses; 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate. The weak link is Oil (45.91, -0.2%). The PMs are the upside leaders with Gold (1301.0) +0.5% and Silver (17.940), +0.3%; both PMs are the volatility leaders, having traced better than 50% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Open Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for Copper (cur 2.2880, tar 2.3130) and the Bond (cur 163^14, tar 165.03); the Bond's daily Moneyflow (44) is on pace to cross above 50 in the day or so. ISM(Mfg) & Construction due @ 07:00 PT.
29 Apr '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (cur 1.14110, tar 1.12150) is nixed, the daily Parabolic flipping to the LongSide. Copper's (2.2740) Target of 2.3130 remains supported by the positive daily MACD. We've added a Target for the Bond (cur 162^20, tar 165^03), its 12-hr. Parabolics having flipped to the LongSide. BEGOS Markets volatility is running moderate-to-robust with strength in the Metals, Eurocurrencies and Oil (46.37). Gold (1278.3) has topped the 1240-1280 resistance zone (high 1283.0). The EconBaro to receive 6 incoming data inputs from 05:30-07:00 PT.
28 Apr '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: Readers ought scroll down to our menu link at left and click on "The S&P 500 -- Moneyflow": the oscillators across the foot of the graphic are about as negative as we've every seen them. Expected easing from the BOJ was not announced, sending the ¥en soaring and thus Gold (1257.6) is our strongest BEGOS Market, +0.8% with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing as well at 128%. Weakest is the Spoo (2077.75), -0.7% with the 2nd widest EDTR tracing at 121%. The Euro's (1.13595) Market Rhythm Target (1.12150) may get nixed today. 1st look at Q1 GDP: 05:30 PT.
27 Apr '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Volatility is at best moderate before the Fed, with all but 2 of the BEGOS Markets to the plus side, led by Silver (17.335, +1.0%), its cac volume moving from May into Jul (17.375); the white metal has scampered up from the 17.000-16.250 (May cac) Market Profile "chasm". Weakest is Copper (Jul 2.2295, -1.2%), but its daily MACD remains positive, keeping our Market Rhythm Target in place at 2.3130. The Euro's (1.13230) Target of 1.12150 is also still in place, the daily Parabolics remaining to the ShortSide. Pending Homes: 07:00; FOMC: 11:00 PT (no press conference).
26 Apr '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Another session of moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, 7 of which are just either side of "unch"; the exception is Copper (Jul 2.2330) at -1.0%. The red metal's cac volume is moving from May into Jul, for which our Market Rhythm Target is still 2.3130 as the daily MACD remains positive. The Target for the Euro (1.12965) of 1.12150 is still in play as price remains below the declining daily Parabolics. Silver (16.970) is basically on its 16.950 apex (see Market Profiles), still with a notably "chasm" down to 16.200. Durables due at 05:30 PT, then Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
25 Apr '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Oil (43.33, -1.0%) and firmest is the Swiss (1.0282, +0.4%). Open Market Rhythm Targets remain for both the Euro (cur 1.12730, tar 1.12150) per its daily Parabolics, and Copper (Jul cur 2.2630, tar 2.3130) per its daily MACD. The Gold Update highlights Silver's (16.870) 12% increase for the last 2 months vs. Gold's (1235.0) net change of 0%. The S&P's (2091.58) page for Moneyflow shows a sharp drop-off. FOMC rate decision on Wednesday; a backloaded week of EconData; New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
22 Apr '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: Overnight speculation of BOJ negative rate lending to banks hasn't significantly affected the BEGOS Markets, the volatility running light-to-moderate. The upside leader is Silver (17.225, +1.3%), which is also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 76%. The weakest link is the Bond (162^22), off just -0.1% with an EDTR tracing of 36%. The Euro (1.12920) is maintaining a Market Rhythm Target of 1.12150, and Copper (Jul 2.2650) continues to Target 2.3130. 10% of the way into Q1 Earnings Season, only 57% have bettered their y-o-y quarter.
21 Apr '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Bond (162^27) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 163^14; our two open targets are for the Euro (cur 1.13305, tar 1.12150) per its negative daily Parabolics, and for Copper (Jul 2.2610, tar 2.3130) per its positive daily MACD. The PMs continue their leadership in BEGOS Markets volatility, Silver (17.370) with a 174% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, and Gold (1260.7) with a 107% tracing. All 3 BEGOS Metals are presently the upside leaders: Silver +2.5%, Gold +1.2%, Copper +1.2%. The Bond is the weakest, -0.4%. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi + Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; LEI: 07:00 PT.
20 Apr '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: Again, Silver (17.075) is the leader in volatility which overall is moderate for the BEGOS Markets; with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 101%, Silver (+0.6%) yesterday returned to the 17 handle for the 1st time since last June. Gold (1250.0, -0.1%) is 2nd in EDTR tracings at 70%. Oil (41.79) is the downside leader, -1.5%. Negative daily Parabolics are maintaining Market Rhythm Targets for both the Bond (cur 165^10, tar 163^14) and Euro (cur 1.13885, tar 1.12150). Add to those Copper (Jul 2.2230, tar 2.3130) per its positive daily MACD crossing. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
19 Apr '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (16.675) is leading a moderate-to-robust session in volatility for the BEGOS Markets: the white metal is +2.7% and has traced 185% of its EDTR; 2nd rangiest is Gold (1243.6, +0.8%) with a 111% tracing; 2nd highest in change is Oil (41.88, +1.0%). Just 2 of the 8 components are in the red: Copper (2.1495, -0.7%) and the Bond (165^07, -0.2%). The latter's Market Rhythm Target is still 163^14, whilst that for the Euro (1.13480) is still 1.12150. With the exception of Copper, the balance of the 21-day LinReg trends are all positive. Housing/Permits come due @ 05:30 PT.
18 Apr '16, 04:46 Pacific Time: Oil (38.80) is the dominant mover (-4.0%) amongst the otherwise docile BEGOS Markets; Oil has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and volume has begun flowing into the June cac from that of May, (1st notice for which is this Fri, 22 Apr). Gold (1239.5) and the Swiss (1.0387) are the upside leaders, both +0.3%. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Bond (cur 166^07, tar 163^14) and the Euro (cur 1.13265, tar 1.12150). Barely underway, Q1 Earnings Season is off to a mediocre start (44% bettering the y-o-y quarter thus far). NAHB Housing at 07:00 PT.
15 Apr '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.13050) daily Parabolics have flipped to Short for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.12150; the same study on the Bond (165^26) remains in place with its Target of 163^14. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, Oil (40.48) being off the most at -2.3% and the rangiest of the components with an 82% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges, which have been notably in decline); Copper (2.1485) is 2nd-weakest -0.9%; the balance of the bunch are only modestly changed up or down. NY Empire Index: 5:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
14 Apr '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Bond's (165^10) daily Moneyflow is barely above the 50 border (scale 100-0), but the daily Parabolics have confirmed a flip to Short, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 163^14. Negative 4-hr. MACDs on both Gold (1242.1) and Silver (16.150) are seeing downside price follow-through. Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, and again, 6 of the 8 components are down, the only two up this time being Oil (41.86, +0.6%) and the Swiss (1.0382, +0.1%). Silver is the weakest -0.6%. The Spoo's (2075.00) "Baby Blues" still defy the uptrend. CPI: due in at 05:30 PT.
13 Apr '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, the exception being the EuroCurrencies, both of whose EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings have exceeded 100%. 6 of the 8 components are down, save for Copper (2.1575, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2066.50, +0.5%); the latter's daily Moneyflow did not cross sub-50 ('tis presently 65); however, the same study for the Bond (165^00) is down to 51. We've noted of late the 4-hr. (240mn) studies on the PMs: Silver's (16.075) 4-hr. MACD is poised to cross negative. PPI and Retail Sales at 05:30 PT; Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
12 Apr '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2039.25) daily Moneyflow is poised to cross sub-50 (scale 100-0) in the next day or two; should that be confirmed, we'd expect a Market Rhythm Target of 52 points lower ($2,600/cac) from the opening price following the confirming session; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall, (in real-time as well even with price presently +0.3%). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust with Copper (2.1085) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 112%; the red metal is up the most of the bunch at +1.3%. Ex/Im pricing: due at 05:30 PT.
11 Apr '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (15.580) is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the white metal +1.4%, followed by Gold (1251.7), +0.9%; in real-time, Silver is printing its 1st up move in its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) since 23 March. Save for the Spoo (2048.00) which is +0.3%, yet its "Baby Blues" working lower, the balance of the BEGOS bunch are mildly down; volatility is moderate. At Market Rhythms, both the Bond (165^21) and Swiss (1.0492) are presently sporting a variety of studies to observe for signals. The week is backloaded for incoming EconData; Q1 Earnings Season starts today.
08 Apr '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Moderate is the BEGOS Markets volatility, 6 of the components being down, save for Oil (38.60, +2.9%) and the Spoo (2046.00, +0.5%). Both of those markets also have the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 83% for the Spoo and 80% for Oil. The PMs are the weakest of the bunch with Gold (1236.3) -0.5% and Silver (15.175) -0.4%; and whilst their 21-day LinReg trends remain down, specific to Gold, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now higher for the 4th consecutive session. More on that in tomorrow's Gold Update. Whsl Invs come due at 07:00 PT.
07 Apr '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: Resilience remains for the PMs with Gold (1239.0) and Silver (15.240) both +1.2% as the firmest 2 markets in BEGOS. Volatility is moderate-to-robust with Copper (2.1045) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%, followed by the Euro (1.14190) at 104%. We've presently no open Market Rhythm Targets; Oil's (37.79) daily Price Oscillator has stalled, just barely positive without having crossed to negative; again, mind the Market Rhythms page to see which ones have been the best performers in anticipation of their next signals. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
06 Apr '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, except for the Swiss (1.0445) which has traced 71% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). 6 of the 8 components are in the red, save for Oil (36.95, +1.1%) and the Spoo (2042.75, just above "unch"). At Market Trends, Gold's (1226.6) "Baby Blues" have notched higher for the first time in almost a month (08 Mar), albeit the 21-day LinReg trend is firmly down. At Market Rhythms, Copper's (2.1340) daily MACD in its last 10 consecutive tests had follow-though 9 times by at least $2,000/cac (0.0800 points). 16 Mar FOMC Minutes due at 11:00 PT.
05 Apr '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil (35.58) per its negative 12-hr. Price Oscillator has made its Market Rhythm Target of 35.81; that said, as we'd noted, the daily Price Oscillator is nearing its own negative cross, from which (if confirmed) would point to another $2,800/cac (2.80 points) lower, as is currently listed on our Market Rhythms page. For the PMs, the 4-hr. Rhythms for both Gold's (1233.9) Parabolics and Silver's (15.145) MACD confirmed shifting to positive at 04:00 PT. BEGOS Markets volatility borders on robust; the Spoo (2044.25) is the weakest -0.6%. Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
04 Apr '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1625) has made its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595; Oil's (36.68) Target of 35.81 remains in place, reinforced by the 12-hr. Price Oscillator reaching its lowest level since the signal was triggered last Thursday; further, Oil's daily Price Oscillator is trending towards a negative cross in the next session or two. No one BEGOS Market is presently changed by more than 0.5% either way and overall volatility is moderate at best. The most docile component is the Bond (164^28), practically "unch" with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of just 28%. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
01 Apr '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Q2 arrives with a big data day including Econ Baro metrics for payrolls, ISM(Mfg), Construction, UofM sentiment and vehicle sales. With the Nikkei -3.6%, the only strength in the BEGOS Markets is in the EuroCurrencies; volatility is light-to-moderate with the data in the balance. Copper's (2.1850) daily MACD is lower still, the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595 still alive; and we've added a Target for Oil (cur 37.55, tar 35.81), its 12-hr. Price Oscillator having gone negative (from 38.01). The best Market Rhythms of late for the Precious Metals are on the 4-hr. (240-min.) time frame.
31 Mar '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: In closing quarter's end, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with weakness in the Spoo (2054.25), Oil (38.26) and most so in Copper (2.1740), the latter being -0.6% and closing in on the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595, (low = 2.1660 and the "guesstimate" low if a down day = 2.1525); in real-time, Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have reached down to 0% and ought go negative near-term. Silver (15.415) leads to the upside at +1.3%, today's strengths showing in the Precious Metals, EuroCurrencies and the Bond (163^27). Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT.
30 Mar '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: As anticipated, the Bond's (164^07) Market Rhythm Target of 160^07 did get nixed, the daily Price Oscillator crossing to positive as all 8 BEGOS Markets surged on the Yellen ECNY remarks, to the demise of the Dollar (94.890); the Euro's (1.13520) 12-hr. Parabolics too have provisionally flipped to Long, which nixes the 1.11150 Target; Copper (2.2005) is working lower, increasing the depth of its daily MACD in maintaining the Target of 2.1595. Components' volatility is moderate, and Oil (38.96) the upside winner at +1.2%. ADP Employment data comes due at 05:15 PT.
29 Mar '16, 04:15 Pacific Time: After a very narrow day yesterday, volatility is moving up to moderate for the BEGOS Markets: Copper (2.2115) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 87%; the daily MACD is increasingly negative and our Market Rhythm Target remains 2.1595. The Bond's (163^24) daily Price Oscillator, whilst still negative, is now only barely so such that the Target of 160^07 may get nixed in the next day or two. The Euro's (1.12400) 12-hour Parabolics continue as Short, the Target in place there for 1.11150. Consumer Confidence due at 07:00 PT; Yellen before the ECNY at 09:20 PT.
28 Mar '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: A subdued start to what ought morph into a very robust week, (major non-US bourses are still closed). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for the Bond (cur 162^22, tar 160^07) per its still-negative daily Price Oscillator, and for Copper (cur 2.2285, tar 2.1595) per its newly negative daily MACD. The same study for the Spoo (2034.50) is close to crossing negatively; the Euro's (1.11845) 12-hour Parabolics have flipped to Short for a Target (ideally from 1.12030) of 1.11150. Personal Inc/Spd due at 05:30 PT; Pending Homes due at 07:00 PT.
24 Mar '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil (38.80) is off the most in BEGOS at -2.4%, followed by Copper (2.2070) at -1.4%; the other 6 components are neither 1% in either direction and overall volatility is moderate. Copper's daily MACD is confirmed as negative (ideally from 2.2395) setting up a Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595; the Target for the Bond (163^23) is still 160^07 as the daily Price Oscillator remains negative. For the Spoo (2017.00), its daily MACD may confirm as negative by session's end. Durables: 05:30 PT. Major bourses (ex-Japan) closed tomorrow. Final Q4 GDP tomorrow at 05:30 PT.
23 Mar '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, all 8 of which at this instant are in the red. Off the most, and the most rangy, are the Precious Metals, with Silver (15.660, -1.5%), its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being 88%, and Gold (1232.7, -1.3%), its EDTR tracing being 76%. The Spoo's (2040.25) daily high has come after its low for the past 5 sessions with little net gain in the past 3; mind the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as they traverse the ceiling. Copper's (2.2865) daily MACD again appears close to a negative cross. New Homes at 07:00 PT.
22 Mar '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Gold (1252.8, +0.7%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%, and Silver (15.995 , +0.8% is up the most of the bunch, this despite the Dollar (95.590, +0.2%) rising and the EuroCurrencies dropping in response to the Brussels bombings (00:00 PT, 08:00 CET). The Bond (162^05, +0.2%) is getting a bid, yet the daily Price Oscillator is still negative, supporting our 160^07 Market Rhythm Target; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling upward, but the 21-day LinReg trend is down and the 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short.
21 Mar '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Oil (40.84, -0.7%) and Gold (1249.0, -0.6) are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, the new week starting with, at best, moderate volatility: at Market Ranges you can see notable narrowing in the EDTRs for Oil, the Spoo (2037.25, "unch") and the Bond (163^07, "unch"). Still, the Bond's daily Price Oscillator is negative and thus the Market Rhythm Target 160^07 maintained. Both Silver (15.865) and Copper (2.2940) are +0.3%, the most in BEGOS. The Gold Update points out price's churning of late within the 1240-1280 "resistance zone". Existing Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
18 Mar '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with weakness in the EuroCurrencies and Gold (1255.0 -0.3%), countered by strength in Silver (16.035, +0.6%) and moreover in Oil (42.29, +1.5%). The Bond (163^15) has been working contra to its still negative daily Price Oscillator, other of its measures having flipped positive (daily Parabolics and 6-hr. Price Oscillator), and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) notching higher in real-time; the 21-day LinReg trend remains down, so we'll keep the Market Rhythm Target alive for 160^07. UofM Sentiment comes due at 10:00 PT.
17 Mar '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver's (15.740) Market Rhythm Target of 15.195 was nixed upon the 4-hr. MACD swinging to positive yesterday, the 08:00-12:00 PT period encompassing the Precious Metals-bullish FOMC policy statement; the Bond (163^04) too is benefiting, but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative, the 160^07 Target still in place. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the one down component being the Spoo (2011.25, -0.3%). Up the most are the EuroCurrencies at +0.7%, both having traced over 110% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; LEI: 07:00 PT.
16 Mar '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain intact for the Bond (cur 161^29, tar 160^07 per its still negative daily Price Oscillator) and Silver (cur 15.300, tar 15.195 per its still negative 4-hr. MACD). Copper's (2.2350) daily MACD appears poised to cross negatively by week's end; at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" have just begun rolling over, as have those for Oil (37.08). At Market Values, Gold (1232.5) has returned to meet its smooth valuation line: the yellow metal was 167 points "high", dropping just 50 in closing the gap: FOMC - 11:00 PT; Yellen - 11:30 PT.
15 Mar '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (162^09), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, with volatility moderate across the board. Still, the Bond's daily Price Oscillator remains negative as does our Market Rhythm Target for 160^07. Silver's (15.340) MACD crossed to negative (at 08:00 PT yesterday from the 15.435 level) setting up a Target of 15.195. The Gold Update pointed to Gold's (1235.0) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as suggesting price vulnerability, which we've been getting, the 1240-1280 zone again being resistive. BOJ stands pat on policy with a gloomy outlook. 7 Baro metrics by 07:00 PT.
14 Mar '16, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed (4 up, 4 down) on light-to-moderate volatility, both the Bond (161^02) and Spoo (2006.75) having traced just 21% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Copper (2.2470) leads the tracings at 84%, but off the most is Oil (37.68) at -2.1%; Silver (15.660) leads to the upside at +1.0%. The Bond's daily Price Oscillator is lower still and thus we're maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 160^07. The Euro's (1.11455) big pop from Thu continues to work off: price remains high vis-à-vis its Market Magnet. FOMC + 18 Baro metrics this week.
11 Mar '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (Jun 1.0185, tar 0.9910) was soundly nixed yesterday as reaction to the ECB firmed the daily Moneyflow above the 50 level (scale 0-100); our Target for the Bond (cur 162^10, tar 160^07) is still in place, the daily Price Oscillator continuing to work lower. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (Jun 1.11480) still very much in play in having traced 109% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil (38.73) is up the most of the bunch at +1.9%; the Precious Metals are mildly lower. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
10 Mar '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is essentially light, but the components ought be on the move given an ECB Monetary Policy Decision that is almost imminent at 4:45 PT followed by Draghi's press conference at 05:30 PT. The Swiss' (1.0020) daily Moneyflow has crept above 50: were that to be confirmed by session's end, 'twould nix our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). The Bond (163^17) is getting a bid, but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative for a Target of 160^07. The Spoo (1997.00) front month moves to Jun (1988.00), (volume will lag until Fri).
09 Mar '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Let's set for the Bond (162^26) that suggested Market Rhythm Target for 160^07 as the daily Price Oscillator stayed negative despite yesterday's rally. Still in place is the Swiss (1.0001) Target for 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac); Mon 14 Mar is "1st Position", so rolling may be in order. Gold's (1253.3) 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative for a potential downside run of 10.0 points ($1,000/cac) post-12:00 PT; mind too Gold's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate: Oil (37.18) is up the most at +2.3%; the Bond is off the most at -0.7%.
08 Mar '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond's (163^17) daily Price Oscillator has confirmed a marginal cross to negative (from the session's opening price of 162^10, which makes the present level appear a more attractive entry were we to set a Market Rhythm Target for 160^07); but if the Spoo (1990.25) is topping, the Bond could get the bid, reverting the daily Price Oscillator back to positive; so some caution there. The Swiss (1.0063) daily Moneyflow is at 48 with the Target still 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, which are again split (4 up, 4 down). No data due.
07 Mar '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: Save for the ECB come Thu (10 Mar), this is a very light week for incoming Econ Data; the BEGOS Markets begin mixed (4 up, 4 down) on light-to-moderate volatility. Most rangy is the Swiss (1.0004) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 91%; the daily Moneyflow is 40, thus being sub-50 keeping our Market Rhythm Target alive for 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac), (again, "1st position" is 14 Mar). The Bond's (161^31) daily Price Oscillator is provisionally crossing to negative; if confirmed, a Target for some 2^04 points lower (about $2,100/cac) could be initiated.
04 Mar '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility runs the range from light-to-robust, with Silver (15.430) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 117%; the Spoo (1994.00) is the most docile of the bunch with just a 23% tracing. The Swiss (1.0078) has firmed this week, but the daily Moneyflow still remains sub-50 (47), so our Market Rhythm Target is still in place at 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). Gold (1265.2) has made a new high (1275.9) for the year, indeed a 13-month high; again our 1280 high target for 2016 now appears modest. Spoo target still the low 1400s. Payrolls data due 05:30 PT.
03 Mar '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Volatility is even lighter that at this time yesterday for the BEGOS Markets; indeed the widest change presently is for Gold (1243.5) at just +0.2%; 6 metrics of Econ Data will hit the Econ Baro by 07:00 PT. The Swiss (Mar 1.0043) daily moneyflow is still sub-50, thus our Market Rhythm Target remains for 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). The Euro (1.08935) has confirmed the negative 13/89 EMA crossing; we shan't set a Target there, but 'twould be about for $2,000/cac lower (to 1.07100) from the session's open of 1.08700 . ISM(Svc)/FactOrdrs at 07:00 PT.
02 Mar '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper (2.1730) having traced 90% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), BEGOS Markets volatility is light as none of the 7 other components have traced even 50% of their EDTRs, the Bond (162^09) being the nearest at 44%; good doses of key Econ Data await, notably on Thu and Fri. The Swiss (Mar 1.0016) daily moneyflow has worked lower (35) in favour of our Market Rhythm Target (0.9863 Mar or 0.9910 Jun). The Euro (1.08565) is provisionally seeing its daily 13/89 daily EMA crossing negatively. ADP jobs data due at 05:15 PT; Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
01 Mar '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0019) confirmed its daily Moneyflow crossing sub-50 thus providing us a Market Rhythm Target either of 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac); "1st position" is 14 Mar. BEGOS Market volatility is light-to-robust, the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being for Copper (2.1375) at 103%, the least rangy being the Euro (1.08770) at 35%. Upside leaders are Oil (34.28), Silver (15.055) and the Spoo (1946.00), all just either side of +1%. Gold's (1245.7) resilience is making its Market Value still appear "high" at +93 points. ISM(Mfg)/Construction come due at 07:00 PT.
29 Feb '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are 4 up and 4 down on moderate volatility: the Bond (164^19) and the 3 metals are higher; Oil (32.85), the Spoo (1939.00) and the 2 EuroCurrencies are lower. At Market Trends, note the weaker appearance of the Euro (1.08970) vs. the Swiss (0.9986); that said, the latter's daily Moneyflow is provisionally crossing sub-50, which if confirmed, may set up a Market Rhythm Target for a $2,000/cac run (-0.0160 points) from the next session's opening level. See The Gold Update for Gold's (1232.2) strong BEGOS Standings lead. Chi PMI/Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
26 Feb '16, 04:40 Pacific Time: Contrary to the prior comment, we're not setting a Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (1.10300) despite its 12-hr. Parabolics having confirmed as Long; the fresh data run suggests targeting an upside move of just $600/cac (from 1.10450 to 1.10930) and we avoid Targets < $1,000/cac for Market Rhythm positions. The BEGOS Markets are again mixed with volatility moderate ahead of a cavalcade of data which we'll pour into the Econ Baro after 07:00 PT. Copper (2.1155) is the upside leader at +1.4%. Only mild weakness in the Bond (166^13), Silver (15.155) and Swiss (1.0091).
25 Feb '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.10480) 12-hr. Parabolics provisionally are flipping to Long: should they so confirm come 12:00 PT, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target that is .00880 ($1,100/cac) higher from the next period's opening price. 'Tis another mixed session on moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Copper (May 2.0985) off -1.2%; Gold (1233.2) is the rather meager upside leader at +0.3; the yellow metal still remains some +100 points above its BEGOS Market Value, which itself rising. Both Oil (32.01) and the Spoo (1933.00) are essentially smack on their Market Values.
24 Feb '16, 04:50 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with the Precious Metals and the Bond (167^24) getting the bids; Gold (1236.0) is the strongest component at +0.8% and Oil (30.83) the weakest at -1.7%. The Spoo (1898.75) at its present reading would pull the S&P (1921.27) down to 1902 come the stock market's opening. Volume in both Copper (2.0696) and Silver (15.340) will be moving into the May cacs into week's end, as will that for the Bond into the Jun cac: 1st notice for all 3 of them is Mon (29 Feb). Expectations are for lower New Home Sales at 07:00 PT.
23 Feb '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: We're not yet initiating a fresh Market Rhythm Target, but mind those studies at our Market Rhythms page which have been working the best. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, with not one component presently changed by at least 1% in either direction. Note: an "unch" Spoo (1935.75) suggests a -6 opening for the S&P (1945.50). Although Gold (1218.3) remains "high" at nearly +100 points above its BEGOS Market Value, the distance away from its Market Magnet is now unwound, without price having to have come off much. Confidence & Homes at 07:00 PT.
22 Feb '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.10365) has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.10680, the Dollar (97.510) getting a bid over Brexit and banking industry concerns; The Gold Update points to the risk of negative depository rates, whilst highlighting that Gold (1207.6) itself has resiliency, albeit 'tis still "high" vis-à-vis our Market Value page's near-term measure. Per the 18 Feb comment, Oil's (32.94) 12-hr. Moneyflow has crossed above the 50 level, but is presently kinking lower; Copper's (2.1185) daily Parabolics are provisionally flipping to Long. BEGOS Markets mixed on moderate-to-robust volatility.
19 Feb '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, of which just 2 are in the red: (Oil 32.48, -0.8%) and the Spoo (1908.75, -0.5%). The Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics would presently flip to Short at 1906.25. Silver (15.470) just printed its session high as we type and at +0.4% is up the most of the 8 components. The Euro's (1.11160) daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, keeping our Market Rhythm Target of 1.10680 intact; at both our Market Trends and Euro pages, you can see the "Baby Blues" of trend consistency having started to roll over. CPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
18 Feb '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.0600) Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 has been nixed, the daily MACD confirmed as creeping back to positive. Meanwhile, the Euro's (1.11005) daily Parabolics flipped to Short for a Target (from 1.11480) of 1.10680. Oil's (Apr 33.76) 12-hr. Moneyflow is trending toward crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) by week's end. BEGOS Markets volatility is essentially light across the 8 components: the largest EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) is by Copper at just 50%. Gold (1207.5) continues to hold the 1200s: Market Profile support: 1193. Philly Fed comes due at 05:30 PT.
17 Feb '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: By the barest of margins, Copper's (2.0575) daily MACD remains negative and thus our Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 is being maintained; the red metal may be close to working lower upon the Spoo (1902.00) running out of puff given its Market Profile resistor at 1906. Save for the Bond (165^09) and Swiss (1.0107), the Balance of the BEGOS Markets are higher on moderate volatility: the upside leader is Oil (29.59, +1.6%); over the next 2 sessions, cac volume there shall move from Mar to Apr. PPI and Housing data come due at 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtil at 06:15 PT.
16 Feb '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue session continues with Gold (1214.9) leading the robust EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 202%; Gold's Market Profile shows support at 1192, the session's low, suggestive of resilience. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the weakest being Silver (15.415, -2.4%) and the strongest being Oil (29.90, +3.0%). Per yesterday, we're minding Copper's (2.0665) daily MACD toward possibly nixing the Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 at day's end. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
15 Feb '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed for Presidents' Day, but the Sun-Tue GLOBEX session is robust in both changes and volatility. As The Gold Update again describes, Gold (1210.1) had gotten well ahead of itself and is now -2.3% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 129%; Silver (15.325) is -2.9% with a 146% EDTR tracing. Copper's (2.0675) daily MACD is provisionally back to positive, which if confirmed by the Tue close would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365. Upside leaders are Oil (30.04, +3.5%) and the Spoo (1889.25, +1.6%). EuroCurrencies working lower.
12 Feb '16, 04:47 Pacific Time: Gold (1237.8) yesterday in its 3rd best low-to-high day since 18 Sep 2013, reached well up into the 1240-1280 resistance zone, a staple these many months of The Gold Update. Copper's (May 2.0290) daily MACD has confirmed as negative for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 on the May cac. Oil's (27.43) 12-hr. Moneyflow is low (4 on a scale of 0-100) so as to expect higher levels into next week. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on moderate volatility, with Copper, Oil and the Spoo (1842.75) to the upside. Retail Sales (5:30 PT) & UofM Sentiment (7:00 PT) highlight data.
11 Feb '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: For the 4th time since last August, the Spoo (1807.50) is poised (at this writing) to pull the SPX (1851.86) lower by at least 40 points, as negative rates and Yellen remarks underscore economic slowing. With BEGOS Markets volatility running moderate-to-very robust, the Precious Metals are getting the bid, Gold (1237.9) +3.4% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 261%; the 12-hr. Parabolic was quickly whipsawed back to Long. Silver (15.615) is +2.1% with an EDTR tracing of 141%. Copper's (2.0100) daily MACD is provisionally negative, confirm would be at day's end.
10 Feb '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0277) has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235; with Gold (1183.0) not surprisingly pulling back (see Market Values and prior 3 comment thereto as well as in The Gold Update), the 12-hr. Parabolic has provisionally flipped to Short; confirm would come at 12:00 PT, for a Target from there of 15.0 ($1,500/cac.) points lower. Trending toward a negative cross is Copper's (2.0270) daily MACD. Only Oil (28.55) and the Spoo (1867.25) are in the black, the balance of the 6 BEGOS Markets down ahead of Chair Yellen: Remarks @ 05:30 PT, House Testimony @ 07:00 PT.
09 Feb '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold (1192.6) has traded up through the 1200 milestone; again, per Market Values -- and Market Magnets -- (both also on the Gold page), mind the near-term extreme within the context of some pullback. The Swiss (1.0216) has neared its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235, the daily Moneyflow level still above 50 (scale 0-100). BEGOS Market volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.0470) leading the ranginess with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 135%; 'tis also the weakest component -2.2%; watch our Market Ranges page in general. Wholesale Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 Feb '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0066) continues above 50 (scale 0-100) such that our Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235 is intact; (mind the Market Rhythms page for those that have been working the best). Only 2 BEGOS Markets are in the black: Gold (1177.3, +0.3%) and the Bond (163^29, +0.2%); per The Gold Update as Gold closes in on 1200, we again point, (per our Market Values page), its high level relative to its interaction with the other 4 primary BEGOS components. Oil (30.08, -3.0%) is our weakest market followed by the Spoo (1849.00, -1.3%). No Econ Baro data due.
05 Feb '16, 04:43 Pacific Time: Gold (1160.3) has put in a "higher high" for the 4th consecutive session; tomorrow's edition of The Gold Update will again cite the 2015 year-end technical condition giving rise for a run into the 1200s; that said, per our Market Values page, Gold is at an extreme (+100 points) above its valuation line, (which may be viewed as a telling Gold positive). The Swiss' (1.0089) daily Moneyflow is confirmed above 50 (from a price of 1.0075) for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235. Oil (32.09) leads the session, +1.3%, but BEGOS Market Volatility is mostly light with payrolls data in the balance at 05:30 PT.
04 Feb '16, 04:48 Pacific Time: Oil (32.26) whipsawed its 12-hr. MACD back to positive thus nixing our Market Rhythm Target for 27.50. But Silver (14.765) made its Target of 14.715. The Swiss (1.0023) daily Moneyflow is provisionally crossing above the 50 level (scale (0-100) such that a Long signal may get triggered there by session's end, which would Target 0.0160 points higher ($2,000/cac) from the ensuing session's open. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (1.1205) with a 117% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Productivity: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
03 Feb '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil (30.50) confirmed the negative cross of the 12-hr. MACD giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 27.50; Silver (14.400) has pushed up to its best level since last Thu (28 Jan), the daily Price Oscillator still positive in maintaining the Target of 14.715. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with strength in Oil (+2.7%), Copper (2.0730, +1.3%) and Silver (+0.6%); the weak link is the Bond (162^22, -0.5%); the Bond has just traded below its Market Profile supporter at 164^24. The Spoo (1902.25) shows Profile resistors at 1906, 1918, 1931. ADP @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
02 Feb '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Again we've moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. Silver's (14.270) Market Rhythm Target remains 14.715. Oil's (30.64) 12-hour MACD is provisionally crossing to negative; were we to get such confirmation at 12:00 PT, the Target would be 2.50 points lower ($2,500/cac) from that time; at our Market Profiles page, Oil's longest trading resistor is 31.60. The Spoo (1919.00) is presently poised to pull the S&P (1939.38) lower at its opening; at our Market Magnets page, the Spoo clearly appears too high relative to its Magnet. Vehicle Sales coming in today.
01 Feb '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Gold Update's BEGOS Market Standings place Gold (1122.9) at the top of the stack through January, +5.4%; Oil (32.56) takes last place, -9.0%. The Swiss (0.9805) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784; Silver's (14.305) daily Price Oscillator remains positive, the Target there still 14.715. The session's volatility is moderate and the components are mixed: the EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals are higher, the balance of the 4 lower. Oil is the weakest of the bunch at -3.5%. A full Econ Data week with Income/Spending at 05:30 PT, ISM(Mfg)/Construction at 07:00 PT.
29 Jan '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets remain open for both the Swiss (cur 0.9804, tar 0.9784) per its still sub-50 daily Moneyflow (43), and Silver (cur 14.210, tar 14.715) per its still-positive daily Price Oscillator. Ahead of a barrage of Econ Data, volatility is running light-to-moderate in the BEGOS Markets, the gainers led by the Bond (161^12) and Spoo (1896.25) both +0.8%. The BOJ set a current deposits account interest rate to -0.1%, in turn also getting the Dollar (99.120) a bid. First peek at Q4 GDP due at 05:30 PT, followed by the Chi PMI at 06:45 PT and Michigan Sentiment at 07:00 PT.
28 Jan '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: Copper (2.0460) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0730; both the Swiss (cur 0.9880, tar 0.9784) and Silver (cur 14.320, tar 14.715) have yet to make their Targets; the white metal is the most robust of the BEGOS Markets with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 146%, (price -1.2%). The balance of the bunch are mixed and volatility moderate. The Bond's (160^01) 12-hr. Price Oscillator looks to cross negatively perhaps by week's end. Q4 Earnings Season so far shows only 47% bettering a year ago. Gold rolling into April. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
27 Jan '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: With an FOMC "no change" in the balance at 11:00 PT, volatility in the BEGOS Markets is basically light, the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing exceeding 50% being that of Silver (14.405, 56%); 'tis also the weakest of an overall mixed bunch, -0.8%. Silver's Market Rhythm Target remains 14.715, as do those for Copper (cur 2.0405, tar 2.0730) and the Swiss (cur 0.9858, tar 0.9784). Our narrowest market is the Spoo (1886.00, -0.1%) with an EDTR tracing of 24%; the Spoo is centered in its Market Profile. Pre-Fed we've New Homes at 07:00 PT.
26 Jan '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: After yesterday's narrowings, BEGOS Markets volatility is now moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.0285) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 116%; the red metal's daily MACD has crossed to positive (from 1.9930) for a Market Rhythm Target of 2.0730. Silver's (14.360) daily Price Oscillator is now positive (from 14.255) for a Target of 14.715. The Swiss (0.9864) Target of 0.9784 is still in place. The Bond (159^25) and EuroCurrencies are lower, the balance of the 5 components higher, the leader being Oil (30.59, +2.7%). Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
25 Jan '16, 04:08 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9873) daily Moneyflow Short signal that triggered back on 06 Jan continues to be nursed, its sub-50 level at 33 and Market Rhythm Target at 0.9784. 2 new signals provisionally turning positive are Silver's (14.225) daily Price Oscillator and Copper's (2.0140) daily MACD, (confirmation would be at session's end). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, and only 2 of the components are lower: Oil (31.17) being the weakest -3.3%, and the Spoo (1895.75) -0.2%. The Precious Metals are the upside leaders, The Gold Update noting the weekly parabolic trend as now Long.
22 Jan '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. The Swiss (0.9899) is as low as 'tis been since early December, the daily Moneyflow at 34 and our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784 thus still alive. Oil (31.01) is the most robust of the bunch, +3.9%, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 90%; 2nd is the Spoo (1887.25), +1.4% with a 73% tracing. Silver's (14.140) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to positive, whilst Copper's (2.0120) daily MACD is gliding that way. Mind our link "The S&P 500: Moneyflow" for lower levels ahead. Home Sales & LEI @ 07:00 PT.
21 Jan '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Gold (cur 1101.6, tar 1102.6) was achieved yesterday. That for the Swiss (cur 0.9970, tar 0.9784) continues to be nursed, its sub-50 daily Moneyflow reading at 37: that could get shaken as we've the ECB at 04:45 PT, then Draghi at 05:30 PT. Silver's (14.060) daily Price Oscillator may turn positive by week's end. Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets Spectrum; changes are mixed. The Spoo (1844.00) is the most rangy, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 81%. Oil (28.01) again is our weakest market at -1.1%. Phil Fed @ 07:00 PT.
20 Jan '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold's (1097.9) 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed flipping Long yesterday at 12:00 PT from 1087.6; the Market Rhythm Target is 1102.6. The Target for the Swiss (0.9989, tar 0.9784) remains alive, the daily Moneyflow still sub-50 at 43. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracers being the Bond (160^18, 132%) and the Spoo (1838.75, 106%). Oil (28.58) is the weakest of the components, -2.9%, the Bond on top at +1.1%. The S&P (1881.33) would presently open down to 1846, but first we've CPI and Housing data at 05:30 PT.
19 Jan '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Further into the Sunday-Tuesday session, the volatility is now moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (1.9980) leading the EDTR tracings at 169% and up the most of the components at +2.5%; tied for 2nd are Oil (31.16) and the Spoo (1905.75), both +1.6%; save for Silver (14.040,+0.9%), the balance of the bunch are lower by -0.2% to -0.6%. The Swiss' (0.9969) daily Moneyflow is 36.12, the 0.9784 Market Rhythm Target still in place. Gold's (1085.9) 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long, if confirmed suggesting an 1100 Target. NAHB @ 07:00 PT.
18 Jan '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, (StateSide physical bourses are closed), as the Sunday-Tuesday session is thus far mixed with no one component presently 1% in either direction away from its Friday settle. Oil (30.46) is the most rangy, its EDTR(see Market Ranges) tracing at 89%. The daily Moneyflow of the Swiss (0.9976) is still sub-50, and thus is its Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784. Gold's (1090.1) 12-hr. Parabolics would flip Long at 1095.4, that hurdle falling about 2.0 points/period. Early as 'tis in 2015 Q4 Earnings Season, just 10 of 27 reports are better than Q4 2014.
15 Jan '16, 04:46 Pacific Time: Copper (1.9420) has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.9425, leaving the Swiss (0.9982) as our remaining open signal, still targeting 0.9784 for as long as the daily Moneyflow remains confirmed sub-50. Per EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, volatility is running from light for Silver (13.840, tracing 31%) to robust for the Spoo (1882.75, 106%), Oil (29.48, 105%) and Copper (102%); those latter 3 BEGOS components are lower, the other 5 higher. This is a heavy Econ Data day with 9 metrics to effect the Econ Baro by 07:00 PT including data on Retail Sales and the PPI.
14 Jan '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Bond (158^11) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 158^27; Copper (1.9590) "met" its Target of 1.9425, but did not trade down through it, so its remains open, as does that for the Swiss (cur 0.9989, tar 0.9784) per its daily Moneyflow still reading sub-50 (scale 100-0). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, the Euro (1.0929) tracing the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 88%. Oil (30.87) is again up the most of the components, +1.0%; Silver (14.060) is the weakest, -0.7%. Market Magnets suggest extreme diversions for the Bond, Oil and Spoo (1886.00).
13 Jan '16, 04:16 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets remain open as follows: Swiss (cur 0.9949, tar 0.9784), Copper (cur 1.9690, tar 1.9425) and the Bond (cur 157^07, tar 158^27). Gold (1082.7) has a couple of Rhythms pointing to the low 1070s that we shan't actually target. Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Gold to the downside, the other 4 higher. Oil is the strongest component, +1.6%; net changes for the balance are less than 1.0% either way. Albeit with just 10 Q4 Earnings Season reports so far, only 2 have bettered year-over-year.
12 Jan '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0025) daily Moneyflow is now 36 (scale 100-0), so the lower Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784 remains in place. We've a Target for Copper (1.9695) of 1.9425 (from 2.0225), given the negative daily MACD. Also we've a Target for the Bond (155^10) of 158^27 per the positive daily Parabolics. We're wary of Gold's (1091.4) 6-hr. Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, the Spoo (1929.50) the most rangy with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 86%; 2nd is Oil (31.30) at 72%. Q4 Earnings Season (follow our link) is underway.
11 Jan '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (1920.00) intra-day low had followed its high for the prior 7 consecutive sessions, so we're not surprised to see this overnight whirl 'round in price, which has traced 95% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, the widest EDTR tracing being for the of the Swiss (1.0058) at 109%; the daily Moneyflow there is still sub-50. Of the 6 components, only 2 are in the black: the Spoo and Silver (13.990). Copper (1.9765) is the weakest at -1.9%: per the negative MACD, we've a Market Rhythm Target of 1.9425. No Econ Data due.
08 Jan '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: The 3 BEGOS Markets that were red at this point yesterday are higher, the other 5 lower. The upsiders are Oil (33.53, +0.8%), the Spoo (1947.50, +0.7%) and Copper (2.0255, +0.1%). The Precious Metals are the most rangy, Silver's (14.050) EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) at 127% and Gold's (1100.6) at 125%; the 6 other EDTR tracings are sub-100%. The Swiss' (1.0027) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50, thus its Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784 still stands. China's Shanghai/Shenzhen CSI 300 +2%. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT and Wholesale Inventories at 07:00 PT.
07 Jan '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: 2 of 3 Market Rhythm Targets have been reached: Gold (cur 1098.7, tar 1089.5) and Oil (cur 32.63, tar 33.40); still open is that for the Swiss (cur 1.0019, tar 0.9784), its daily Moneyflow still sub-50. 2 provisional crossings we're watching are the Bond's (156^9) daily Parabolics flipping Long and Copper's (2.0255) daily MACD going negative. Volatility is mostly robust for the BEGOS Markets, 3 of the components being in the red, the weakest being Oil (-4.2%), followed by Copper (-3.0%) and the Spoo (1942.75, -2.2%). Shanghai exchange was closed after just 29 minutes, -7.3%.
06 Jan '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo (1980.00) being the most rangy with a 120% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Oil (35.02) is the weakest component, -3.1%. The Bond (155^07), EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals are all in the black. Gold (1085.2) has traded to its best level in more than a month, the Market Rhythm Target of 1089.5 well intact. The Swiss' (0.9945) daily Moneyflow has confirmed sub-50: this Targets 0.9784; Oil's 12-hr. MACD has confirmed as negative: this Targets 33.40. ADP @ 08:15 PT, ISM(Svc)/FactOrdrs @ 07:00 PT.
05 Jan '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold (1080.0) confirmed its 12-hr. Parabolics flipping to Long yesterday at 12:00 PT from a price of 1074.5; the Market Rhythm Target is 1089.5; but contra to that is the Swiss' (0.9929) daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50, which if confirmed by day's end would Target a level lower by 0.160 ($2,000/cac). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, the one component exceeding its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing by 100% being the Swiss (109%); it along with Oil (36.56) are the weakest of the BEGOS bunch, both -0.9%. The Bond (154^15) & all 3 metals are higher.
04 Jan '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: China kicks off the New Year with a 7% slide, its brand new "circuit breakers" failing; regardless, might the Spoo (1996.50) be -1.9% anyway? The Bond (155^00) and Gold (1071.3) share the BEGOS Markets spotlight, both +1.0%; Gold's 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long; The Gold Update highlights the 2015 BEGOS carnage in a table dominated by the Dollar (98.335). Volatility is robust with 7 of the 8 components exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), the Spoo the most so at 163%. ISM(Mfg) and Construction Spending due at 07:00 PT.
31 Dec '15, 04:12 Pacific Time: The year's final trading day is oft volatile, notably for debt and currency products; nothing thus far is excessive, albeit the Swiss (1.0093) has traced 82% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the only other tracings > 50% are Silver (13.840, 63%) and the Euro (1.0912, 57%). The weakest BEGOS Markets are Copper (2.1305, -0.8%) and Oil (36.55, -0.8%); the only positive component is the Bond (153^21, +0.1%). Silver's 12-hr. Moneyflow has provisionally gone sub-50, thus we're nixing its 14.495 Market Rhythm Target. The Chicago PMI is due at 06:45 PT. Happy New Year!
30 Dec '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light, Silver's (13.840) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 52% being the widest of the components; the white metal's 12-hr. Moneyflow remains above 50, so the Market Rhythm Target of 14.495 is still in play. Gold's (1066.7) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are bent lower. Oil's (36.85) 8-hr. Parabolics look to confirm a flip to Short come 08:00 PT, albeit inventories first come at 07:30 PT; Market Profile support is 36.30. The Bond (153^19) and EuroCurrencies are just higher, the balance lower, Oil the most so at -1.3%. Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
29 Dec '15, 04:23 Pacific Time: 'Tis yesterday at this time in reverse: the 6 BEGOS Markets that had been down are up, the other 2 down. Leading on the upside is Copper (2.1140) at +1.5%, the red metal also with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 94%. Oil's (36.91) EDTR tracing is the smallest at just 26%. Despite Silver's (13.945) slide yesterday, its 12-hr. Moneyflow reading is 75, still with the Market Rhythm Target of 14.495. The Spoo's (2057.00) 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to positive, (confirm would be at 12:00 PT). Gold (1068.3) is "unch". Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
28 Dec '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (14.075) is leading light-to-robust BEGOS Markets volatility with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 134%; our Market Rhythm Target (14.495) is still in place, the 12-hr. Moneyflow now at 67 (scale 0-100). The EuroCurrencies are the least volatile. Oil (36.96) is the weakest component, -3.0%, with only the Euro (1.1013, +0.3%) and Bond (155^13, +0.2%) in the black. The Gold Update visually describes Gold's (1071.3) putting in a base capable of leading to a rally up into the 1200s. The S&P (2060.99) would drop to 2049 were the market to open at this writing.
24 Dec '15, 04:18 Pacific Time: Volatility is light for this shorter session, save for the EuroCurrencies: the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are for the Swiss (1.0168) 63% and Euro (1.0967) 57%. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with Oil (37.51) off the most at -1.0%. The Bond's (154^20) daily MACD has confirmed as negative, a stance we'd avoid given the long weekend. Silver's (14.300) 12-hr. Moneyflow is still above the 50 line at 74.14, the Market Rhythm Target of 14.495 thus well in place. U.S. stocks look to open lower and close at 10:00 PT, ChiFuts at 10:15 PT and NYFuts at 10:45 PT. Merry Christmas!
23 Dec '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver's (14.295) 12-hr. Moneyflow remains above 50, keeping our Market Rhythm Target of 14.495 intact; supporting the direction is confirmation of the daily Moneyflow also having crossed above 50. We're eying the Bond's (154^18) daily MACD as potentially going negative in the next few sessions. Volatility is again light, with just Copper (2.1195) tracing better than 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 59%; the BEGOS Markets are mixed with weakness in the Bond and EuroCurrencies; the balance are higher. 6 Econ Baro data items come due between 05:30 and 07:00 PT.
22 Dec '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Pre-Christmas volatility is light at best this morning in BEGOS: its only market exceeding an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 50% is Copper (2.1210) at 51%; the red metal achieved its Market Rhythm Target (2.1390) yesterday; 'tis also the weakest component at -0.8%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both Gold (1077.5) and Silver (14.275) are in real-time resuming higher following a bump-in-the-road; Silver's 12-hr. Moneyflow has confirmed its cross above 50 (scale 0-100) for a Target of 14.495. Final Q3 GDP due at 05:30 PT; Existing Homes due at 07:00 PT.
21 Dec '15, 04:22 Pacific Time: The 3 1/2-session week begins with Copper (2.1320) again nearing its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1390. Per our prior comment, the Euro's (1.0892) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has not turned negative. Silver's (14.195) 12-hr. Moneyflow has provisionally crossed above 50, (for which confirmation would come at 12:00 PT), then setting a Target of 20¢ higher ($1,000/cac). Volatility is light-to-moderate with the Swiss (1.0102) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 63%; least so is the Bond (156^09) with just a 24% tracing. No Baro Data due; 14 reports in the year's balance.
18 Dec '15, 04:25 Pacific Time: More Market Rhythm Target nixing as both the Bond (cur 155^20, tar was 152^22) and Silver (cur 13.805, tar was 14.380) had their underlying technical signals reverse. But Copper's (2.0990) Target of 2.1390 is still viable given its positive daily MACD. We're eying the Euro's (1.0860) 12-hr. Price Oscillator for a negative cross early in the new week; also, the Spoo's (2012.50) 12-hr. Parabolics would presently flip negative at 1996.75. Save for the Spoo and Oil (35.97), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, the most volatile being Copper with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 130%.
17 Dec '15, 04:26 Pacific Time: We've now 3 open Market Rhythm Targets: Copper (cur 2.0460, tar 2.1390), the Bond (cur 155^11, tar 152^22), and since yesterday's comment we've added Silver (cur 14.090, tar 14.380), its 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Long; all 3 targets are in adversity this session, but not so much as to reverse their technical stances. Post-FedHike, BEGOS Markets volatility is back moderate following yesterday's early quietude, the Bond leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90%; least rangy is Oil (35.44) as cac volume moves into Feb (36.74). Data at 05:30 PT and 07:00 PT.
16 Dec '15, 04:14 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.0610) Market Rhythm Target of 2.1390 remains in force given the positive stance of the daily MACD; we've a new Target on the Bond (cur 154^15, tar 152^22) per a negative crossing of the 8-hr. MACD. BEGOS Markets volatility is light ahead of the Fed (11:00 PT) & Yellen (11:30 PT), the Spoo (2047.25) being the most rangy with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of only 47%. Oil (37.16) is the firmest component, +1.1%; mildly weak are the Bond and EuroCurrencies. Pre-Fed incoming data includes Housing/Permits due @ 05:30 PT and IndProd/CapUtil due @ 06:15 PT.
15 Dec '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Gold's (1062.2) 12-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed as negative yesterday at 12:00 PT nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 1095.3; Copper's (2.0740) daily MACD remains firmly positive, the Target of 2.1390 thus in place. Silver's (13.690) 12-hr. Moneyflow is again very depressed, the reading just 16.35 (scale 0-100) and at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are rolling over. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on moderate volatility; up the most is Oil (36.59, +0.9%); off the most is Copper at -1.5%. We've still 8 metrics to affect the Econ Baro ahead of the Fed, including CPI today at 05:30 PT.
14 Dec '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: In getting a grip on Friday, Gold's (1069.2) 12-hr. Price Oscillator did not confirm a negative crossing, (albeit its still positive stance is slight at best); thus our Market Rhythm Target (1095.3) remains in place, as does that for Copper (cur 2.1040, tar 2.1390) per its positive daily MACD. Oil (34.68) is working lower. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate across the spectrum: Silver (13.715) leads our EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracings at 98%; the Euro (1.1012) is the least rangy with a 40% tracing. The Gold Update discusses a "Buy The News" rally should a FedHike come Wed (16 Dec).
11 Dec '15, 04:41 Pacific Time: Pressure on the Precious Metals is preliminarily nixing our Market Rhythm Target for Gold (cur 1063.3, tar 1095.8) as the 12-hr. Price Oscillator is crossing negatively; but the Target for Copper (cur 2.1045, tar 2.1390) is being neared, the red metal making a 2-week high and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 120%, the balance of BEGOS Markets volatility being light-to-moderate. Cac volume on the EuroCurrencies is moving into Mar. Save for Monday, today begins a string of 14 metrics including for inflation to affect the Econ Baro ahead of the FOMC next Wednesday.
10 Dec '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: The aforementioned technical studies remain positive and thus intact are the Market Rhythm Targets for both Gold (cur 1076.3, tar 1095.8) and Copper (cur 2.0660, tar 2.1390). The BEGOS Markets are mixed on light-to-moderate volatility, with weakness in Oil (37.03, -0.5%) and the EuroCurrencies. The Swiss' (1.0139) daily Moneyflow, following last week's price spike, looks poised to return to sub-50 (scale 0-100) in the new few sessions. At 06:30 PT, the "front month" for the Spoo (2047.00) moves to Mar (2038.75); volume shan't fully shift a day or two. Ex/Im pricing at 05:30 PT.
09 Dec '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets spectrum with Copper (2.0840) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 67%; Copper's daily MACD remains positively disposed and thus is the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1390. Likewise is Gold's (1077.9) Target of 1095.8 still in place per the positive 12-hr. Price Oscillator; at our Market Values page, Gold is nearing an upside crossing of the valuation line. At our Market Magnets page, we're seeing high extremes for both the Euro (1.0931) and Swiss (1.0092) and a low extreme for Oil (37.90). Wholesale Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
08 Dec '15, 04:20 Pacific Time: Thus far, 'tis yesterday upside down, with 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets in the black, the sole loser being the Spoo (2062.75, -0.9%) with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing (67%) of the bunch; the balance of volatility is light-to-moderate. Our 2 open Market Rhythm Targets are intact: Gold (cur 1071.4, tar 1095.8) and Copper (cur 2.0525, tar 2.1390). EuroCurrencies are nearing some positive technical crossings of which we'd be wary given their delay to the strong up move of last week: mind, too, their "Baby Blues" at Market Trends and deviations at Market Magnets.
07 Dec '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Oil's (39.55) daily MACD confirmed its negative cross at Friday's close, thus nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 44.85). Silver (14.520) achieved its 12-hr. Moneyflow Target of 14.320. We've a fresh Target for Gold (1081.0, tar 1095.8) per its 12-hr. Price Oscillator having crossed to positive. Another Target for consideration is Copper (2.0740, tar 2.1390), but from a preferred entry of 2.0590 by its now positive daily MACD. Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets spectrum with 7 of 8 components in the red; only the Spoo (2093.50) is up, at +0.2%. Consumer Credit at 12:00 PT.
04 Dec '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: The two open Market Rhythm Targets, Oil (41.50, tar 44.85) and Silver (14.135, tar 14.320), did not have their respective provisional negative crossings confirmed, (Oil's daily MACD and Silver's 12-hr. Moneyflow), both markets rallying post ECB/Fed, and further so in this session. BEGOS Markets volatility is running moderate-to-robust ahead of Payroll data due at 05:30 PT, with the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being led by Copper (20.875, 108%) as well as the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss' (1.0017) being 95%. But mind the Market Magnets for the latter and for the Euro (1.0896).
03 Dec '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: Both open Market Rhythm Targets are under provisionally threat: Oil's (40.50, tar 44.85) daily MACD is crossing to negative and Silver's (13.910, tar 14.320) 12-hr. Moneyflow is crossing sub-50, (scale 0-100); per yesterday's comment, Copper's (2.0300) did not (as yet) confirm turning positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with the EuroCurrencies (policy announcement at 04:45 PT) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings upwards of 90%. Just 2 components are in the black: Oil +0.9% and the Spoo (2091.00) +0.3%. ECB's Draghi at 05:30 PT, Fed's Yellen at 07:00 PT.
02 Dec '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target per the Spoo's (2101.25, tar 2061.50) 12-hr. Parabolics was short-lived, the signal flipping back 'round to Long yesterday; but such damage was more than mitigated by the Bond (155^27) reaching its Target (155^00). Open Targets remain for Oil (cur 41.37, tar 44.85) and Silver (cur 14.150, tar 14.320). Copper's (2.0650) daily MACD provisionally has crossed to positive, which if confirmed by day's end, would (per our Market Rhythms page) set up a $2,000/cac target via the next session's opening price. Revised Q3 Productivity comes due at 05:30 PT.
01 Dec '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2087.25) 12-hr. Parabolics have confirmed tripping to Short setting up a Market Rhythm Target of 2061.50; at our Market Values page, the Spoo appears some 100 points too high. Other open Targets remains as noted yesterday. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate across the 8 components, stirred perhaps in part by the IMF's adding reserve currency status to the Yuan. The largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far is by Gold (1066.5) at 81%; the Spoo is the narrowest at 40%. 07:00 PT: ISM Mfg & Construction; vehicle sales sprinkle the balance of the day.
30 Nov '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate to start a week featuring the ECB, Fed's Tan Tome, and payrolls. Open Market Rhythm Targets are still in place for the Bond (cur 153^24, tar 155^00) and Oil (cur 42.05, tar 44.85); we've added a Target for Silver (cur 14.100, tar 14.320) as its 12-hr. Moneyflow has crossed above the "50" level, (scale 0-100); Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling up from the floor. Of the 8 components, Oil at +0.7% is up the most, and the Euro (1.0576) off the most at -0.3%. Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT; Pending Homes at 07:00 PT.
27 Nov '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Given the "2-day" session, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust. The largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are 184% for Copper (2.0835), 144% for the Swiss (0.9713) and 132% for Silver (14.095). We're nixing our Market Rhythm Target for Gold (1064.6, tar 1096.3) as the daily Parabolic has provisionally flipped to Short. The Bond's (155^26) cac volume is moving from Dec into Mar (154^14), "1st notice" being Monday (30 Nov); the open Target is still 155^00 whilst for Oil (42.15) 'tis initially 44.85 (see yesterday). Early closes for StateSide bourses and GLOBEX.
26 Nov '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis Thanksgiving, but the BEGOS Markets are on their Friday run, including cac volume movements for the Dec Bond (155^13) into Mar (154^01), Dec Gold (1071.4) into Feb (also 1071.4), and Dec Silver (14.225) into Mar (14.240). Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Mar Bond (tar 155^00) and Feb Gold (1096.3). Oil's (42.85) daily MACD is confirmed as positive for an aggressive Target of 47.45, (or conservatively, 44.85). Save for Silver and Copper (2.0940), EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are light, albeit this session extends through tomorrow.
25 Nov '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Per our EDTRs (see Market Ranges), BEGOS Markets volatility is running the gamut from light tracings (both the Bond [155^05] and Spoo [2087.75] at 39%) to those which are robust for the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss' (0.9801) being 115% and the Euro's (1.0602) 125%. The cac volume for Copper (2.0310) is moving from Dec into Mar (2.0415). With Mon (30 Nov) as "1st notice" for the Bond, the an open position ought be rolled into the Mar cac (153^24) and the Market Rhythm Target adjusted to 155^00. 7 Econ Data items due for the Econ Baro between 05:30 PT and 07:00 PT.
24 Nov '15, 04:20 Pacific Time: Both BEGOS Markets for which we've open Market Rhythm Targets are getting a boost this session, the Bond (cur 155^13, tar 156^12) and Gold (cur 1073.7, tar 1096.3). A Target may be assigned for Oil (42.35) as its daily MACD is pointing toward a positive cross that may arrive before week's end. Volatility is moderate across the components with 7 of the 8 up on the session, the sole exception being the Spoo (2075.00), -0.3%. Our "live" p/e for the S&P (2086.59) remains staggeringly steep at 46.7x. 2nd peek at Q3 GDP is due at 05:30 PT; Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
23 Nov '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Back down into the 13s goes Silver (13.970), albeit its 12-hr. Moneyflow has come up off the mat. Our Market Rhythm Targets for both the Bond (cur 153^31, tar 156^12) and Gold (cur 1071.0, tar 1096.3) are in place. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust with the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) for the 2 Precious Metals both exceeding 100%, and Oil's (42.18) at 150%. As noted in The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling upward. The weakest Earnings Season (49% bettered) since Q3 of 2009 is done. Existing Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
20 Nov '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Fresh Market Rhythm Targets: the Bond (Mar 153^10) targeting 156^12 per the daily MACD having confirmed as positive; Gold (Feb 1083.7) targeting 1096.3 per the daily Parabolics confirming a flip to Long. Structurally, Silver's (Mar 14.298) 12-hr. Moneyflow finally is rising (22.21) such we'd aim at least for 14.780. Volatility is light-to-moderate; the 3 metals components are higher as is the Spoo (2085.00). Oil (41.43) is the weakest of component, -1.0%; also mildly lower are the EuroCurrencies. 'Tis the final day of a very mediocre Q3 Earnings Season: only 49% improved.
19 Nov '15, 04:22 Pacific Time: As noted yesterday, the Bond's (154^08) daily MACD is now provisionally positive; if confirmed at close (and as noted on our Market Rhythms page), we'd then look for a Market Rhythm Target of $3,200/cac (some 3^07 points) higher. Still flat as ever is Silver's (14.160) 12-hr. Moneyflow (8.88). Gold's (1073.0) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Long (1085 would do it today, high thus far 1078, EDTR [see Market Ranges] is 15 points/day). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, save for Oil (42.07) with just a 26% EDTR tracing. Philly Fed & Leading Indicators at 07:00 PT.
18 Nov '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, with no 1 market presently changed by more than 0.3% either way. We continue to "marvel" at Silver's (14.120) 12-hr. Moneyflow (10.03), so significantly flat that the next substantive round of buying ought see a rise both swift, and again, up to at least 14.750; the structural stop (14.135) has obviously been hit. The Bond's (153^25) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling upward, as is the daily MACD, the latter likely to produce a Market Rhythm Target in a day or 2. OilVol Dec---> Jan, Housing: 05:30PT FedMins: 11:00PT.
17 Nov '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Save for the Eurocurrencies and Dollar (99.600), the BEGOS Markets have digested the Île-de-France attacks. 7 of our 8 components are in the red, with only the Spoo (2055.25) gaining ground, and the 3 metals nearing year-to-day lows, Copper (2.1005) having so done. Silver's (14.185) 12-hr. Moneyflow (10.26) has remained flat for an uncannily number of consecutive periods (since 05 Nov). Meanwhile, 12-hr. Parabolic flips to Long have been confirmed on both the Spoo and Oil (41.15), neither for which we're presently setting Market Rhythm Targets. CPI due at 05:30 PT.
16 Nov '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have retraced in part their opening "safe-haven" lurches, the Bond (153^21), Spoo (2024.50) and essentially the Euro (1.0732) having all closed their material session-opening gaps. Gold (1090.9) and Silver (14.360) have held up well throughout. The Gold Update emphasizes the still flat state of the 12-hr. Moneyflow (9.62) for Silver, again with what we see is a run to at least the 14.750 Market Profile resistor upon a rebound, (not a Market Rhythm trade, rather a contrary structural one, stop 14.135). An expectedly negative NY Empire State due at 05:30 PT.
13 Nov '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: The 12-hr. Moneyflow for Silver (14.330) remains lowly and flat (8.38); should yesterday's low (14.155) hold, a run to the 14.750 Market Profile resistance would seem in order. Gold (1085.9) all but took out the year's low (1072.3) yesterday, having since rebounded to this area where 'tis been trading throughout the week. Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, 4 of which are up and 4 down. Oil (41.93) is the upside leader at +0.8%, and the Euro (1.0784) the weakest at -0.3%. Econ Data: PPI & Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment and Business Invs @ 07:00 PT.
12 Nov '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: Silver's (14.360) 12-hr. Moneyflow is just now coming up off the floor, (the reading at 9.01 on a scale that reaches up to 100.00); the first notable overhead resistor per our Market Profiles remains 14.750. BEGOS Markets volatility is thus far light-to-moderate, the rangiest being Gold (1083.3) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 93% and the Eurocurrencies on the heels on continuing QE through Sep '16 per Draghi. The narrowest component is the Bond (152^05) with an EDTR tracing of just 34%. Today is also market by FedSpeak from several FedHeads, including Yellen.
11 Nov '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: We're still eying Silver (14.395), its 12-hr. Moneyflow ever flat at the 4.31 level; 'tis very unusual to see this study flat-lining on this or any other BEGOS Market for so long, (9 periods now, or 4 1/2 days); at Market Profiles, you can see the potential overhead apex targets, (the nearest being 14.750). Volatility is mostly light across the 8 components and most changes are muted, Copper (2.2100) again being off the furtherest from "unch" at -0.5%. Mind the Econ Baro as it continues to belie increasing expectations for a 16 Dec Fed hike. The S&P's (2081.72) "live" p/e is presently 45.9x.
10 Nov '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Per yesterday's note, Silver's (14.475) 12-hr. Moneyflow continues to crawl across the floor, the present reading just 3.85, such that one ought be on watch for a profitable pop. The BEGOS Markets are lightly-to-moderately volatile, and little changed, the exception being Copper (2.2175, -0.5%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 75%; that Market Ranges page shows material declines in components' volatility. The Spoo (2067.50) at our Market Values page still shows as an extreme at 100 points above its valuation line. Ex/Im at 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs at 07:00 PT.
09 Nov '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil (45.00, +1.1%) is the firmest BEGOS Market as well as the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 77% as some 400 contracts were sold at the GLOBEX open initially driving down price -0.69 (-1.5%) in the 1st minute. The only two negative components are the Spoo (2087.50, -0.3%) and Bond (152^01, -0.2%). Silver's (14.715) 12-hr. Moneyflow is at an extreme low (4.49, scale 0.00 - 100.00) such as to expect some pop there. The Gold Update highlights, as drawn from our Market Values page, Gold (1093.3) as 50 points too low and the Spoo 100 points too high.
06 Nov '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is essentially light given payrolls data coming due at 05:30 PT. The 8 components are mixed with the Precious Metals leading on the upside with both Gold (1108.3) and Silver (15.025) +0.5%; all other changes are presently muted. Oil's (45.42) daily MACD is now provisionally to the negative side, confirmation of which would nix our 49.34 Market Rhythm Target. The Spoo's (2093.75) 12-hr. Price Oscillator is down to a barely positive level such that we'll look for it to go negative next week; our Market Values page shows the Spoo more than 100 points too high.
05 Nov '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: The EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader is Copper (2.2815) at 137%; the red metal off -1.7% (drop in German industrial orders) is the only material mover thus far in BEGOS; volatility for the balance of the 7 components is light-to-moderate and changes are mildly mixed. Despite Oil's (46.41) drop yesterday, the daily MACD remains positive such that our Market Rhythm Target of 49.34 is still in place. Per our 02 Nov note, the Bond (154^16) has reached the mid-154s. With 2 weeks to go in Q3 Earnings Season, we've only 51% y-o-y improvement. Q3 Productivity @ 05:30 PT.
04 Nov '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Copper (2.3405) and the EuroCurrencies (€ 1.0940, CH 1.0115) are leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings thus far with moderate ranginess, the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets with sub-50% tracings. Presently, the whole bunch are close to "unch", save for Oil (48.07. +0.8%); Oil's daily MACD has swung to positive, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 49.34, (or more aggressively 51.94 by the $4,200/cac suggested on the Market Rhythms page, but that appears more of a stretch, structurally). Incoming EconBaro data for ADP Jobs, Trade Balance and ISM Services.
03 Nov '15, 04:26 Pacific Time: In mid-October, the 21-day linear regression trends of all 8 BEGOS Markets were up; save for the Spoo (2090.50), the other 7 are now down, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) below their 0% axes, (Gold's [1132.3] just today in real-time). Continued weakness in Q3 results (see Earnings Season and Valuation & Rankings) has our "live" p/e of the S&P (2104.05) at 43.3x, even as adjusted for the down stock market opening later this morning. Volatility is running light-to-moderate across the 8 components with strength in Oil (46.49, +0.9%). Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
02 Nov '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets with the Bond (155^29) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 89%; the Bond's daily Price Oscillator is now confirmed as negative and targeting the mid-154s, but as 'twas noted, we shan't chase it as the S&P (2079.36) is very vulnerable to cracking given our "live" p/e at 41.9x; also at our Market Values page, you can see the Spoo (2074.50) is about 100 points -- an extreme deviation -- above its valuation line; the Spoo and EuroCurrencies are up, the balance are down. ISM and Construction are due at 07:00 PT.
30 Oct '15, 04:14 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 156^07, tar 161^17) was nixed yesterday as the daily Parabolics flipped to Short; the Bond's daily Price Oscillator provisionally is negative, however we shan't chase it lower, notably as the Economic Barometer is in decline. Gold (1148.1) did trade down through 1144 (see 27 Oct comment); price ought get a grip as it becomes more evident that the Fed shan't raise its Funds rate come Dec, (see tomorrow's Gold Update). Our "live" p/e of the S&P (2089.41) remains in extreme territory at 42.1x. 6 data items hit the Econ Baro by 07:00 PT.
29 Oct '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the components again split at 4 up and 4 down. The ups are Gold (1158.0), the Bond (157^30) and the EuroCurrencies, the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 72% for the Swiss (1.0125) and 71% for the Euro (1.0970); the Bond's Market Rhythm Target of 161^17 remains intact. A shorter-term Rhythm we've noted of late is Oil's (45.28) 2-hr. MACD: 'tis heading toward a negative crossing around 08:00 PT or 10:00 PT. The Fed's non-event fist-waving may be mitigated with a weaker GDP of Q3 due at 05:30 PT.
28 Oct '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: A bit more volatility is built into the BEGOS Markets, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings mostly moderate. The Precious Metals are the most rangy of the bunch thus far, with both Gold (1172.2) and Silver (16.035) on the upside. The Bond (158^07) remains intact with its daily Parabolic LongSide stance and Market Rhythm Target of 161^17. Further evidence of a lacking in Q3 Earnings is reflected in the p/e of the S&P's live reading of 41.1x, now into historical extremes. As noted in The Gold Update, the FOMC Statement due at 11:00 PT ought be a non-event repeat of September's.
27 Oct '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down), none presently with a change beyond 1% either way; volatility is again essentially light. The Bond (158^07) continues to maintain its daily Parabolics to the LongSide, the flip price being 156^15 and the Market Rhythm Target 161^17. As noted in The Gold Update, Gold's (1165.8) daily Parabolics are to the ShortSide, (the weekly study well to the LongSide), such that a median pullback would see the 1144 area trade; to that end, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have just kinked down in real-time. Durables at 05:30 PT, Confidence at 07:00 PT.
26 Oct '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: Volatility is quite light for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (2.37960) being the exception with the broadest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing so far of 95%; of the balance, only that of the Swiss (1.0203) exceeds 50% (at 66%). The Bond's (157^11) daily Parabolics are still to the LongSide, the 161^17 Market Rhythm Target thus still in play, but under threat of getting nixed as the daily MACD has confirmed as negative; (156^13 would flip the Parabolic to Short). The Gold Update points to an upside down October as Gold (1166.87), the S&P (2075.15) and Dollar (97.020) are all up.
23 Oct '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Yesterday's post-ECB stocks surge kept the Spoo's (2071.00) aforementioned 12-hr. Price Oscillator from turning negative; but the Bond's (157^18) daily Parabolics are still positioned Long, so its 161^17 Market Rhythm Target remains viable. The Euro's (1.1094) daily Price Oscillator looks to confirm as negative by day's end, but we shan't chase it, noting as well that Gold (1179.2) is on the up move. With the narrow exception of Oil (45.70), the BEGOS Markets are running at moderate volatility, both Gold & Copper (2.4105) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 96%.
22 Oct '15, 04:14 Pacific Time: The Bond's (158^06) daily Parabolics remain to the LongSide and thus the Market Rhythm Target of 161^17 is still in place. Silver's (15.830) 12-hr. Moneyflow has crossed sub-.50, however we're loathe to go negative on the Precious Metals; but the Spoo's (2015.75) 12-hr. Price Oscillator appears en route to going negative by week's end. Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the two firmest being Copper (2.3970, +1.7%) and Oil (45.93, +1.5%). The Bond and EuroCurrencies are slightly lower. ECB at 04:45 PT; Leading Indicators & Existing Homes at 07:00 PT.
21 Oct '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.3585) daily Moneyflow has provisionally crossed below .50 which if confirmed by session's end shall nix the Market Rhythm Target of 2.4710; the red metal's daily MACD, (currently on the list at our Market Rhythms page), may go negative in the next day or two. The Bond's (157^25) Target of 161^17 is intact per the LongSide stance of the daily Parabolics. Again the BEGOS Markets are mixed but volatility a bit more rangy: the Swiss (1.0452) has traced 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Our "live" p/e of the S&P is 34.9x, yield 2.173%. Oil inventories: 07:30 PT.
20 Oct '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Targets are still open for both the Bond (cur 157^28, tar 161^17) and Copper (cur 2.3615 tar 2.4710) as their respective studies (see 16 Oct comment) have not reversed their stances. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility running light-to-moderate with the Swiss (1.0536) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 89%; presently, no one component differs by 0.5% in either direction from its GLOBEX settle; the Eurocurrencies and Precious Metals are getting the bids, the other 4 Markets are lower. Housing & Permits due at 05:30 PT.
19 Oct '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Gold Update graphically depicts all 8 BEGOS Markets as being in 21-day linear regression uptrends; this session, the 8 components are all down, Oil (47.25) off the most at -1.0%; the rangiest are the EuroCurrencies, their respective EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being 72% for the Euro (1.1339) and 67% for the Swiss (1.0481). Gold's (1172.5) next upside obstacle, aside from trading resistance, is its 300-day MA (1192). At our Earnings Season page, whilst still quite early in Q3, just 47% of companies have bettered Q3 of a year ago. NAHB Housing Index is due at 07:00 PT.
16 Oct '15, 04:23 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (cur 2014.50, tar 1969.75) was nixed yesterday upon the 8-hr. Parabolics confirming to the LongSide. Two new Targets have been added: 1) The Bond (cur 159^09, tar 161^17) per its daily Parabolics and 2) Copper (cur 2.3975, tar 2.4710) per its daily Moneyflow. Mind the Market Rhythms page for those that have been doing the best. Volatility is light-to-moderate across the BEGOS Markets, which are all lower (basis Globex settles) save for the Bond. Oil's (46.84) cac volume moves from Nov into Dec. Econ Data due at 06:15 PT & 07:00 PT.
15 Oct '15, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are again mixed on somewhat limited volatility (quite un-October-like): 7 of the 8 components have EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings < 50%; only the Euro is moderate at 70%. The Spoo (1997.25) is getting the best bid at +0.6%, the prior 3 sessions having seen the low come after the high; the 8-hr. Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, (the flip price presently 2008.50). Despite the Dollar (94.090) being higher, both Gold (1186.0) and Silver (16.165) are moving up as well. These next two days bring 9 doses of data into the Econ Baro which continues to languish.
14 Oct '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold (1168.2) achieved a minor milestone in exceeding 1170 (August's high) earlier in the session, that being a noted level to achieve within the current weekly parabolic Long trend toward opening the door for a run to the 1240-1280 resistance zone (see The Gold Update). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate with Gold leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%.The Spoo's (1994.50) 8-hr. Parabolics, (after some whip), are now confirmed as Short with a Market Rhythm Target of 1969.75. PPI & Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT; Bus Invs @ 07:00 PT.
13 Oct '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2002.75) 8-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to the ShortSide, (confirm due at 08:00 PT). From then, a Market Rhythm would be set for at least 26 further downside points. As mentioned back on 06 Oct, Oil's (47.10) 2-hr. MACD continues on balance to be a good follow-though Rhythm, ('tis on the list at the Market Rhythms page). We've mild up moves in the Bond (157^31) and Eurocurrencies, the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets being down with Gold (1153.2) the most at -0.9%. Volatility is moderate across the components. Treasury Budget: 11:00 PT.
12 Oct '15, 04:12 Pacific Time: Gold (1166.3) made our Market Rhythm Target; of more import is a run, at minimum, above 1170, the August high: such would set the stage for the 1200s (see The Gold Update). The Spoo's (2008.75) 8-hr. Parabolics have risen to 2002.75: by that study, there is little room to prevent a downside run. Volatility is light-to-moderate in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets: all 8 are presently in the black, with both Gold and Silver (15.960) up the most at +0.9%. Gold is also the most rangy with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 81%. No EconData due today ahead of a busy week.
09 Oct '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: We nixed the Swiss (1.0430) Market Rhythm Target of 1.0157 as the daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long; more than mitigating that cost there was Copper (2.4130) reaching its Target of 2.4250 along with Gold (1154.0) well en route toward its Target of 1162.5. Per yesterday's note, the Spoo's (2009.50) 8-hr. Parabolics have lifted the flip level to 1986.25. Volatility is again running the gamut from light-to-robust, led by both Copper and Gold, their EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings respectively 153% and 122%. Ex/Im pricing @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Inv @ 07:00 PT.
08 Oct '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets are intact for the following: the Swiss (cur 1.0349, tar 1.0157), Gold (cur 1144.0, tar 1162.5) and Copper (cur 2.3305, tar 2.4250); our prior comment notes the underlying studies' signals. A study we're watching to crack to the downside is the Spoo's (1979.75) 8-hr. Parabolics, (the present flip level is 1964.75). BEGOS Markets volatility per EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings span from light for Oil (48.08, 33%) to robust for Silver (15.650, 114%). "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are working higher for both Precious Metals. FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
07 Oct '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0371) daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide, albeit the flip price (1.0422) is closing in; until such touch, the Market Rhythm Target remains 1.0157. The same study on Gold (1149.2) has confirmed as positive with an upside Target of 1162.5, (en route with our more subjective goal per The Gold Update of 1170 during this weekly Parabolic Long stint). We've also a fresh Target for Copper (2.3845, tar 2.4250), its daily MACD also having confirmed as positive. Save for the Bond (156^27) and Euro (1.1269), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are up and volatility moderate.
06 Oct '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets are again mixed this morning, those that gained yesterday now being down, and vice-versa; volatility is running light-to-moderate. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0282, tar 1.0157) is still supported by the negative daily Parabolic study. In real-time, despite the Euro (1.1231) being higher today, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked lower, (ought be reflected on that page following session's end, barring a stronger up day). Oil's (45.94) 2-hr. MACD has been recording nicely tradable near-term sweeps. Trade Balance at 05:30 PT.
05 Oct '15, 04:24 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (cur 1.1260) got nixed in concert with the Friday price-spike response to the weak StateSide payrolls growth (see The Gold Update); but for the Swiss (1.0316), its daily Parabolics remains to the ShortSide such that the 1.0157 Target is intact. The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) with moderate volatility to start the week, in which Q3 Earnings Season also beings. Oil (46.09) leads on the upside at +0.9% and Gold (1130.2) on the downside at -0.7%. A light calendar this week for Econ Data starts with ISM Services due at 07:00 PT.
02 Oct '15, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Swiss (cur 1.0244, tar 1.0157) and Euro (cur 1.1174, tar 1.1091). Presently on the list at our Market Rhythms page is Gold's (1106.3) daily Parabolics study, (the chart for which currently is at the foot of our Gold page), that study having achieved follow-through of 16 points ($1,600/cac) in all 10 of its last changes of signal, (noting per yesterday's comment that we don't favour the yellow metal's ShortSide swings). BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate ahead of Payrolls data at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
01 Oct '15, 04:06 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.1163) 4-hr. MACD did go negative as we'd noted, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 1.1091; The Swiss' (1.0249) daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, the Target of 1.0157 still intact. (2 signals we're not favouring are a flip to Short in Gold's [1112.6] daily Parabolics and flip to Long in the Spoo's [1921.75] 8-hr. Parabolics). Volatility starts the month at a moderate pace for the BEGOS Markets in which the industrial metals (inc. Silver [14.510]), Oil (46.16) and the Spoo are higher; the other 4 components are lower. ISM Mfg & Construction due at 07:00 PT.
30 Sep '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running from an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing for Oil (45.07) of just 27% to Copper's (2.3055) 109%, the red metal also being the strongest component +2.2%. Running 2nd in both categories is the Spoo (1899.25), +1.3% with an EDTR tracing of 75%. EuroZone inflation has the Eurocurrencies, Precious Metals and the Bond (156^29) all working lower. The Euro's (1.0296) 4-hr. MACD looks to confirm as negative come 08:00 PT: from there, Market Rhythms would suggest a 0.0104 ($1,300/cac) follow-through. ADP @ 05:30 PT; Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT.
29 Sep '15, 04:22 Pacific Time: Copper (2.2605) made its Market Rhythm Target (2.2400) yesterday. The Swiss (1.0305) daily Parabolics still have their downside Target of 1.0157. For the BEGOS Markets, given their above-average volatility of late, 'tis at best light-to-moderate thus far, with the Spoo (1880.25) getting a bid and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 65%; 2nd is Gold (1126.3) at 64%, and the most docile is Oil (44.90) at just 35%. At Market Trends, Silver's (14.353) "Baby Blues" have kinked lower, albeit the 21-day linreg trend remains up. Confidence due at 07:00 PT.
28 Sep '15, 04:13 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (156^09, 0.4%), we've red across the BEGOS board, the downside leaders being Silver (14.675, -2.8%) and Gold (1132.3, -1.2%); but the latter's weekly Parabolic is confirmed as Long (see The Gold Update). Copper (2.2575) is closing in on its Market Rhythm Target of 2.2400. The Swiss (1.0230) daily Parabolics confirmed as Short on Friday, giving us a Target there of 1.0157. The Spoo (1907.25) is working lower: its EDTR (see Market Ranges) is 36 points. The week is rife with Econ Data starting with Personal Inc/Spd/PCE at 05:30 PT; Pending Homes at 07:00 PT.
25 Sep '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Gold (1143.4) has achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1150.7, and more importantly from a bit broader perspective, has provisionally flipped the weekly Parabolic trend to Long as we'll see in tomorrow's edition of The Gold Update. Copper's (2.3010) daily MoneyFlow has gone negative giving us a Target there of 2.2400. BEGOS Markets volatility per EDTRs (see Market Ranges) tracings is ranging from light for Oil (45.16, 29%) to robust for the Spoo (1940.75, 106%); only these 2 components are in the black, the latter being up the most at +1.1%. Final Q2 GDP is due at 05:30 PT.
24 Sep '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on moderate volatility. Gold (1135.3) is pushing higher, its Market Rhythm Target of 1150.7 in place and its Baby Blues (see Market Trends) on the rise such that the 21-day linreg trend ought turn positive by early next week. The Spoo (1910.50) has traded as low as 1907.50, last seen on 08 Sep; the S&P (1938.76) would presently fall to 1921, albeit first we've Durables at 05:30 PT; later at 07:00 PT come New Homes. The Swiss (1.0303) and the Bond (156^15) are up the most in BEGOS at +0.6%, the latter not having been this high since 31 Aug.
23 Sep '15, 04:26 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the most rangy being the Spoo (1940.25) having traced 83% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); at our Market Values page, the Spoo is low relative to BEGOS, however at the S&P 500 Valuation & Rankings page the p/e ratio is still a very expensive 33.6x. The daily MACD for Gold (1125.0) remains positive and thus our Market Rhythm Target for 1150.7 is intact; but Silver's (14.800) 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, (confirmation would next be at 12:00 PT); that study presently is listed on our Market Rhythms page.
22 Sep '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold's (1128.1) daily MACD has confirmed as positive giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 1150.7, (our notion of the move to 1170 notwithstanding); but Gold is lower this morning as are 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets, the only up component being the Bond (154^15, +0.5%). Volatility is running moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.3265, -2.5%) the most so with an EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of 112%. Oil's (45.79, -2.0%) 2-hr. MACD confirmed as negative at 04:00 PT: 'tis a volatile ride, yet quite a profitable near-term Market Rhythm. The Spoo (1935.00) puts the S&P at 1946.
21 Sep '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update underscores the Fed not raising rates for the foreseeable future, the "Lift-Off" instead being Gold (1136.5), for which the daily Parabolics flipped to long at 1132, with the weekly version poised to so do at 1148, in turn leading to 1170. As the Fed dust settles, the week for the BEGOS Markets is starting with light volatility, the exception being for Copper (2.3955, +0.7%) which has traced 77% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and is 2nd on the upside only to to Oil (45.00, +1.1%). The rest of the components are mixed. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
18 Sep '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility has moved to a more moderate-to-robust state post-Fed with the Swiss (1.0513) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 103%. While more docile at a 57% EDTR tracing, the Euro (1.1451) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1.1387. The EuroCurrencies continue higher this morning, along with the Bond (154^26) and Precious Metals. But Copper (2.4395), the Spoo (1957.25), and Oil (46.33) are all down at least -1.0%; Oil's cac volume is moving today from Oct into Nov (46.65), with 1st notice for delivery next Thu (24 Sep). Leading Indicators at 07:00 PT.
17 Sep '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: All 3 open Market Rhythm Targets came off the board yesterday, the Bond (152^08) reaching its 152^01 Target, in turn more than mitigating ShortSide losses for both Silver (14.815) and Copper (2.4395), the studies for those 2 having reversed their signals. The Euro (1.1334) did confirm a daily MoneyFlow cross to positive, the Target being 1.1387. Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is yet again light-to-moderate with FOMC policy in the balance at 11:00 PT, (and then Yellen at 11:30 PT), prior to which we get Housing Starts/Permits at 05:30 PT and the Philadelphia Fed Index at 07:00 PT.
16 Sep '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets are mixed as the light-to-moderate volatility is again in force to this point, with FOMC policy on the morrow; at our Market Ranges page, all 8 components are seeing their EDTRs hook to the downside. The 3 open Market Rhythm Targets (see yesterday) are intact. Should the Euro (1.1236) not have too much of a down day, its daily MoneyFlow shall confirm a cross to positive from which we'd then look for at least a 0.0080 ($1,000/cac) up run as measured from the next session's open. The CPI due at 05:30 PT is expected to have gone negative; NAHB Housing at 07:00 PT.
15 Sep '15, 04:45 Pacific Time: Again, volatility is thus far light-to-moderate across the BEGOS Markets, perhaps the calm before the Fed Storm on Thu. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Bond (cur 154^30, tar 152^01) and Silver (cur 14.310, tar 13.845). Copper's (2.4005) 8-hr. Parabolics did confirm to Short yesterday, the Target there being 2.3770. The Euro's (1.1334) daily MoneyFlow may cross to positive in the next day or two; that study is currently on the list at the Market Rhythms page. A bevy of EconData is due for the EconBaro, including Retail Sales and the NY Empire Index at 05:30 PT.
14 Sep '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: A week with telling EconData and the FOMC's rate decision (Thu) begins cautiously as BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. Off the most is Silver (14.395, -1.3%) for which the 8-hr. Parabolics flipped to Short on Fri giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 13.845; the same study mentioned on Fri for Copper (2.4225, -1.2%) looks to confirm as negative come 08:00 PT. The Target for the Bond (cur 155 ^02, tar 152^01) is still intact due to the negative daily Price Oscillator. The Eurocurrencies are mildly lower; the Spoo (1952.00) suggests the S&P (1961.05) to open mildly higher.
11 Sep '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (154^13), its daily Price Oscillator still negative and thus our Market Rhythm Target of 152^01 intact, 'tis red across the board for the balance of the BEGOS Markets on moderate volatility. Oil (44.90) is the weakest of the bunch, -1.8%. Copper's (2.4255) 8-hr. Parabolics appear en route to flipping negative early next week; currently listed at the Market Rhythms page, this has been on balance a profitable trading rhythm. Sep EuroCurrencies reach is 1st position on Monday and thus cac volume has moved into Dec. PPI due @ 05:30 PT and UofM Sentiment @ 06:55 PT.
10 Sep '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate thus far across the BEGOS Markets with 7 of the 8 components presently up or down by less than 1%. The exception is Copper (2.4525, +1.2%). The EuroCurrencies and Bond (153^30) are weaker, the balance are higher. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl higher, but the 21-day linreg trend remains negative such that we put no confidence in the tide turning. Mind our S&P 500 "Valuation & Rankings" (p/e 33x). The large SP cac front month becomes Dec at 06:30 PT; ES volume will lag for a session or two. Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
09 Sep '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: A 7% pop in the Nikkei get the credit for this morning's Spoo (1986.25) rally; at +1.0% 'tis the strongest of the BEGOS Markets, the volatility of which is moderate. The Swiss (1.0231) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 87%, whilst Oil (45.37) is the weakest component, -0.8%. The Bond (153^14) is again lower with our Market Rhythm Target of 152^01 remaining supported by the negative daily Price Oscillator. The 8-hr. version of same on the Spoo confirmed positive as of 00:00 PT, (shan't chase it); front-month for the Spoo moves to Dec tomorrow.
08 Sep '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: The Sunday-into-Tuesday session continues, widening BEGOS Markets volatility to now appear as moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.3900) remaining the most rangy with its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing increased to 135% and price up the most at +3.4%. The Spoo (1955.25) would presently pull the S&P (1921.22) +37 points to 1958 at the open; per our Market Values page, the Spoo is low relative to its BEGOS valuation. The Bond (155^01) is working lower (-0.6%), its Market Rhythm Target of 152^01 still intact. The Precious Metals' session is quietly mixed.
07 Sep '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: The electronic trade of the BEGOS Markets, (for what is effectively Tuesday given today's StateSide holiday), has light-to-moderate volatility, Copper (2.3560) being the most rangy with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far of 86%; the red metal is also up the most at +1.9%. 2nd best is the Spoo (1931.50), +0.5%. The other 6 components are in the red, including the Bond (155^14), its daily Price Oscillator still negative and thus the Market Rhythm Target in place at 152^01. Year-to-date, Gold (1121.9) is the 3rd best performer in BEGOS per The Gold Update.
04 Sep '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: As anticipated, Copper's (2.3450) Market Rhythm Target (2.2725) was nixed; but the failure was more than mitigated by both the Euro (1.1138) and Silver (14.655) reaching their respective Targets. At our Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" are in ascension for just two of the BEGOS Markets: Copper and Oil (46.41). In this session, save for the Euro and the Bond (155^14), the other 6 components are in the red; but the Bond's daily Price Oscillator confirmed as negative for a Target of 152^01. Volatility is light-to-moderate ahead of our long weekend & payrolls due at 05:30 PT.
03 Sep '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.3435) Market Rhythm Target of 2.2725 is under threat as the 8-hr. Parabolics look to confirm as having flipped Long come 08:00 PT, the red metal being up the most in BEGOS at +1.8%; save for Copper's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 94%, volatility for the the other components is light-to-moderate. The Targets for both Silver (cur 14.610, tar 14.910) and the Euro (cur 1.1226, tar 1.1101) are still in place; at 04:45 PT comes the ECB policy statement, followed by Draghi's press conference at 05:30 PT, (simultaneous with US Trade Balance). ISM Services @ 07:00 PT.
02 Sep '15, 04:47 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility has notably backed off thus far: the rangiest, and up the most, is the Spoo (1926.75, +0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 63%. Silver (14.353) is again the least volatile with a 23% tracing; the 12-hr. MACD has confirmed as positive to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 14.910. Copper's (2.3040) 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short (from 2.3125) for a Target of 2.2725. And the Euro's (1.1259) Target remains at 1.1101. Mind our Market Rhythms Page for those that have been the best performers. ADP jobs data due at 05:15 PT.
01 Sep '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: More down for equities to come as this time the Spoo (1932.00) would pull the S&P (1972.18) to 1935 were stocks to open at this moment; the Spoo's low of the correction thus far is 1831.00 (24 Aug); the Spoo is leading the session's BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 97%. The least volatile component is Silver (14.560) with just a 36% tracing; the white metal's 12-hr. MACD may confirm as positive at 12:00 PT. The Euro (1.1260) is +0.4%, but its daily MoneyFlow Market Rhythm Target of 1.1101 remains intact. ISM and Construction due at 07:00 PT.
31 Aug '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: 2015's 2nd trimester looks to end on a down note, the Spoo (1973.00) presently set to pull the S&P (1988.87) down to 1976 at the open. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, save 'tis light for the Precious Metals, Silver (14.480) tracing just 28% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Of the 8 components, only the Bond (155^21) and Euro (1.1209) are in the black; but the Euro's daily MoneyFlow has turned negative and thus we've a Market Rhythm Target of 1.1101. Oil (44.42) is the weakest of the bunch -2.0%. See The Gold Update's version of the Econ Baro (!) Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT.
28 Aug '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is fairly moderate across the BEGOS Markets thus far, again given expanded Market Ranges, and notably so for the Spoo (1973.00) which -0.8% has traced but 50% of its current EDTR of 51 points. The Bond (157^06), EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals are getting the bid this morning. That said, the Euro's (1.1270) daily MoneyFlow is crossing to negative as is the Swiss' (1.0424) 8-hr. Price Oscillator. At Market Magnets, note how distantly low the Bond is from its Magnet, and yet how the Spoo has recovered to its Magnet. Personal Income/Spending due @ 05:30 PT.
27 Aug '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Both open Market Rhythm Targets were achieved yesterday: Silver (Dec cur 14.220, tar 14.105) and the Euro (1.1296, tar 1.1336). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have expanded. Oil (40.15) is leading on the upside, +3.3%, with the most EDTR tracing at 93%. Save for the EuroCurrencies, the other 6 markets are in the black. Volume for both Silver and Copper (Dec 2.2700) is moving into the Dec cac today, (1st notice for delivery is Mon). Our Econ Baro belies a 2nd "expected higher" look at Q2 GDP @ 05:30 PT.
26 Aug '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: As anticipated, Silver's (Sep 14.375) Market Rhythm Target of 15.735 got nixed, (the daily Price Oscillator going negative), but the daily MACD crossed down as well, giving us a new Target (basis Dec) of 14.105. The Euro's (1.1414) 8-hr. Parabolics have given us a ShortSide Target of 1.1336. The Spoo (1907.75) is attempting another robust start for the S&P (1867.71) which would pop up 44 points to 1911 were the opening right now. Oil (39.47) is the most subtle BEGOS Market thus far with an EDTR tracing of just 45%. Mind our Market Values & Market Magnets. Durables @ 05:30 PT.
25 Aug '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Yesterday's "market speed" for the Spoo (1936.00) of "4,867kph" was the 2nd fastest ever, moving 12 whole points (not uni-directionally) per minute during RTH; presently, the S&P (1893) would open +52 to 1945 at the open, (Shanghai was off -7.6%). Volatility is again robust-to-heavy, the Spoo again leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 197%. Least volatile at 71% is Silver (14.785), the Market Rhythm Target of 15.735 is in jeopardy of being nixed by session's end with the daily Price Oscillator nearly negative. New Home Sales & Confidence data due @ 07:00 PT.
24 Aug '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.1494) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.1381. But given the declining markets/commodities tide lowering most other boats en masse, Silver (14.870) has slipped, its Target (15.735) still in play as the daily Price Oscillator remains positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is robust-to-heavy, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) coming from the Spoo (1925.00) at 186%; the S&P would presently open -43 to 1928, and a settle sub-1918 would finally mark a 10% closing basis correction. Off the most is Oil (38.99) at -3.2%. Q2 Earnings finish weakest since Q3 '09.
21 Aug '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: The 8 BEGOS Markets are mixed thus far, the EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals being up and the other 4 down. Market Rhythm Targets remain open both for the Euro (cur 1.1289, tar 1.1381) and Silver (15.430, tar 15.735). Only the latter and Gold (1153.9) have traced better than 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), the balance of the bunch with moderate volatility. The S&P (2035.73) had a "Hobson Close" on the low and would presently pull down some 11 points further given the Spoo (2020.75) & Fair Value of -3.62. No Econ Data scheduled/Q2 Earnings conclude.
20 Aug '15, 04:41 Pacific Time: Staying the course against the contra-signals noted yesterday remains okay given the rises for both Silver (15.375), up 2nd most of the BEGOS Markets at +0.6%, and the Euro (1.1178). Copper (2.3065) is leading at +1.5%. Volatility is moderate with EDTR (see Market Ranges) running from 42% to 76%; the exception there is 106% for the Spoo (2056.50) which at -0.8% is the weakest in BEGOS. Gold (1137.5) has hit the 1140s for the 1st time in better than a month. Mind our Market Magnets page for short-term moves becoming excessive. Triple Econ Data input at 07:00 PT.
19 Aug '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Contra-Signals: Silver's (14.860) daily Price Oscillator, which is still positive (Target 15.735), is being countered by confirmed negative 12-hr. studies on both the MACD and Parabolics suggesting a dip into the 14.700-14.500 area; the Euro's (1.1041) daily Price Oscillator, also which is still positive (Target 1.1381), is being countered by the 12-hr. MACD now confirmed as negative, suggesting 1.0937. The "rule" here is not to nix the prevailing signals until they confirm as failed, neither as yet being the case. Session volatility is rather muted with the CPI and FOMC Minutes in the balance.
18 Aug '15, 04:42 Pacific Time: With stocks in Shanghai off better than -6%, Copper's (2.2785) Market Rhythm Target of 2.4595 has been nixed with the 12-hr. MACD confirmed as negative; the red metal is down the most (-1.9%) in BEGOS and has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 85%. Daily Price Oscillator studies remain positive for both the Euro (cur 1.1069, tar 1.1381) and Silver (cur 15.155, tar 15.735). Volume in Oil (41.57) is moving from the Sep cac into Oct. Presently, only the Swiss (1.0248) and Gold (1119.1) are in positive territory. Housing Starts/Building Permits due at 05:30 PT.
17 Aug '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Volatility is fairly moderate to start the week for the BEGOS Markets. The Swiss (1.0235, -0.2%) has thus far the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 52%. Off the most is Oil (41.83, -0.8%), whilst the Bond (158^17) is up the most at +0.3%. The 3 open Market Rhythm Targets (see prior comment) remain in place. The Spoo (2088.25) has also confirmed a positive stance on its 8-hr. Price Oscillator, but we'd stay away from it, the S&P (2091.54) appearing on the edge; at Market Trends you can see the Spoo's negative "Baby Blues". NY Empire Index due at 05:30 PT.
14 Aug '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Both the Euro's (1.1190) daily MoneyFlow and Price Oscillator are confirmed as positive giving us a Market Rhythm Target (basis the latter study) of 1.1381. Also, we've a positive confirmation for Silver (15.465) per its daily Price Oscillator with a Target of 15.735. As for Copper (2.3560), its Target of 2.4595 by its 12-hr. MACD remains intact. Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, Oil (42.24) is down to levels not seen since Mar 2009, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leading the session at 61%. PPI plus IndProd/CapUtil @ 05:30 PT, UofM @ 06:55 PT.
13 Aug '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: Our comment of 10 Aug noted the potential of the Euro's (1.1116) daily MoneyFlow to turn positive; that would so confirm today should the settle be above 1.1117. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate thus far, and save for the Spoo (2090.25), the other 7 components all are in the red, the weakest being Silver (15.270, -1.5%), its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being 82%. That said, at Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" have are positive for the 1st time since 04 Jun. There is plentiful incoming Econ Data over these next 2 days, today's including Retail Sales and Ex/Im pricing.
12 Aug '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: With the Yuan (low 6.4510) off better than -3% Tue/Wed, the Bond (159^07), EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals continue to get the bid, whilst the Dollar (96.465) hits a 4th daily lower low. Copper (2.3255), which is China-sensitive, still finds its 12-hr. MACD to the Long side of the ledger, our Market Rhythm Target of 2.4595 thus still alive. Volatility is moderate-to-very robust across the BEGOS Markets, the leader in upside change and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being the Swiss (1.0257) respectively at +1.2% and 161%. The S&P (2084.07) looks to open -0.5% to -1.0%.
11 Aug '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Gold (1109.7) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1111.0, whilst Copper (2.3445) neared its Target (2.4595) before pulling back, however the signal to stay that course (12-hr. MACD) is still positive. These 2 metals are by far the most robust in EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 159% and 173%, some impetus given a 2% devaluation of China's Yuan and the PBC's selling some $180bn in US debt, (the Bond [157^27, +0.6%)] being the 3rd most robust BEGOS Market with a 106% EDTR tracing). In turn, the Spoo (2089.75) is off -0.5%. Productivity for Q2 is due at 05:30PT.
10 Aug '15, 04:43 Pacific Time: With the Chinese exchanges pogo-sticking (see The Gold Update) higher, the Spoo (2082.50) is +0.4% with a moderate EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 60%. Copper (2.3380) is more so at +0.6% and 95%, its 12-hr. MACD still positive and thus the Market Rhythm Target remains 2.4595. Gold's (1094.5) daily Parabolic also remains Long, the target there still 1111.0. The Euro's (1.0956) daily MoneyFlow (cur 49.31) could cross above 50 in the next day or so: we'll assess a Long Target following confirmation. No scheduled Econ Data due; heavier late in the week.
07 Aug '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Volatility is running at a fairly moderate pace thus far. Silver (14.695, +0.5%) is leading the BEGOS Markets to the upside, with Oil (44.60, -0.5%) bookending the downside. Yesterday, the Spoo (2077.00) came within 2 points of what had been our Market Rhythm Target of 2068.00, but prior to the fallout, the 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed turning positive at 06:00, in turn nixing that target. Still in place are Gold's (1089.3) Target of 1111.0 (per its positive daily Parabolics) and Copper's (2.3300) Target of 2.4595 (per its positive 12-hr. MACD). Payrolls data comes due at 05:30 PT.
06 Aug '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0185) is in play today with an 80% tracing thus far of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); that is the most rangy of the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (1.0903) being 2nd at just 56%. Despite yesterday's rise in the Spoo (2094.00), the somewhat failed rally still finds the 6-hr. Price Oscillator (barely) in negative territory: until a confirmed change to positive, our Market Rhythm Target stays at 2068.00; those for Gold (cur 1085.7, tar 1111.0) and Copper (cur 2.3505, tar 2.4595) are also intact. Oil (44.80) at -0.7% is off the most in BEGOS; 'tis Oil's lowest level since last 20 Mar.
05 Aug '15, 04:44 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are subdued to this point of the session in terms of both change and range; the sole exception is the Spoo (2095.75) which is +0.6% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 74%; the balance of the bunch's tracings are 43% down to Gold's (1086.3) 26%. Our Market Rhythm Targets for Gold (tar 1111.0), the Spoo (tar 2068.00) and Copper (cur 2.3435, tar 2.4595) remain in place. With just over 2 weeks left in Q2 Earnings Season, 54% show improvement. Specific to the S&P 500, our live p/e is 35.2x. ADP @ 05:15 PT; ISM Services @ 07:00 PT.
04 Aug '15, 04:44 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.0992) 12-hr. Parabolics have reversed to Long thus nixing our downside Market Rhythm Target of 1.0868. The upside targets are still in place for both Gold (cur 1090.7, tar 1111.0) and Copper (cur 2.3600, tar 2.4595). The Spoo's (2086.00) 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed going negative (yesterday at 18:00 PT from 2088.00) with a downside Target of 2068.00. BEGOS Markets volatility is more pepped up than at this time yesterday, with Gold leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 84% and Copper running 2nd at 79%. Factory Orders come due at 07:00 PT.
03 Aug '15, 04:43 Pacific Time: Light-to-moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets starts a week chock-full of incoming Econ Data, so mind the Econ Baro; Greece's stock market finally re-opening (-23%) shows no apparent effect on our 8 components. Oil's (46.46) daily Parabolics have confirmed back to negative thus nixing the Market Rhythm Target of 49.83. For Gold (1091.4), the Euro (1.0964) and Copper (2.3455), their respective targets (see prior comment) are intact, albeit Copper's Long (for 2.4595) may also get nixed come 12:00 PT. Personal Inc/Spd at 05:30 PT; ISM & Construct at 07:00 PT.
31 Jul '15, 04:53 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate toward closing out the month and ahead of data on the ECI, PMI and UofM Sentiment. Despite some price adversity, Market Rhythm Targets are still in play for Gold (1080.0, tar 1111.0), the Euro (1.0973, tar 1.0868) and Copper (2.3625, tar 2.4595). Added to that list is one for Oil (47.69, tar 49.83) as the daily Parabolics had confirmed flipping to the LongSide per Wed's close. Of the 8 components, only the EuroCurrencies are up for the session, with the Swiss (1.0389) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90%.
30 Jul '15, 04:10 Pacific Time: Gold (Dec 1086.2) is the most in play of the BEGOS Markets given an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far of 102%; Copper (2.3895) runs 2nd at just 61%. The technicals supporting their respective Market Rhythm Targets of 1111.0 and 2.4595 are intact (see prior 2 comments). The Euro (1.0970) has confirmed a 12-hr. Parabolic flip to Short, the Target there being 1.0868. Ahead of our first look at GDP for Q2 due at 05:30 PT, both the Bond (153^29) and Spoo (2102.25) are essentially "unch", the latter sporting the least EDTR tracing of the BEGOS bunch at 38%.
29 Jul '15, 04:43 Pacific Time: 'Tis Fed day, sans press conference; the Statement is due at 11:00 PT. Accordingly, BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light. Gold's (Dec 1096.3) daily Parabolic study remains Long and targeting 1111.0; tomorrow's volume ought shift into the Dec cac as Fri is 1st Notice for Aug delivery. In real-time, Copper's (2.4070) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling up from the floor and the 12-hr. MACD has confirmed crossing to positive such as to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 2.4595. Q2 Earnings Season thus far shows 56% improvement. Pending Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '15, 04:41 Pacific Time: Gold (Dec 1092.4) confirmed it daily Parabolics flipping to Long; our Market Rhythm Target is 1111.0 (Dec cac); Gold is in rather subdued trading thus far in what at best is moderate movement across the BEGOS Markets; at our Gold and Market Values page, the yellow metal per yesterday's close is 50 points below its "BEGOS Value" of 1143. Copper (2.3765) is up the most of the components at +1.3%. The Spoo (2074.75) is the most rangy with an EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracing of 73%. The Bond (154^24) and EuroCurrencies are weaker. Consumer Confidence @ 07:00 PT.
27 Jul '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: With Shanghai off better than 8%, both the Bond (155^16) and EuroCurrencies are getting the bid this morning; the upside leaders in both change and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are the Euro (1.1081, +0.8%, 123%) and the Swiss (1.0468, +0.7%, 110%). The balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets are in the red (vis-à-vis Friday's GLOBEX settles), most notably Copper (2.3580) -1.3%, at a level not seen since July 2009. Gold (1092.8) has provisionally flipped its daily Parabolics to Long. FOMC Policy Statement due Wed. Durable Orders today at 05:30 PT.
24 Jul '15, 04:42 Pacific Time: Gold (1078.9) has traded as low (1072.3) this session to come within less than 200 points of its high of better than 35 years ago (873.0), and with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 110% is leading the BEGOS Markets volatility; second is Silver (14.695) with an EDTR tracing of 76% and the weakest component, off -1.6%. Of the bunch, only the Spoo (2102.00) is in the black, +0.2%, but the 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed the negative cross yesterday at 12:00 PT, for a Market Rhythm Target of 2075.50, (20 points below 2095.50). New Home Sales come due at 07:00 PT.
23 Jul '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0490) and Gold (1100.0) are running 1-2 in BEGOS Markets volatility thus far, with respective EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of 79% and 78%; both of the components are up better than 0.5%. We are watching for Gold's daily Parabolic (1110.5) to turn that trend positive; Silver's (14.840) daily MACD could cross to positive in the ensuing few sessions. Further to yesterday's comment, the Spoo's (2109.00) 6-hr. Price Oscillator has yet to turn negative, (albeit 'tis close to so doing, the present reading being just +0.05). Expected slowing in the LEI is due at 07:00 PT.
22 Jul '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: The Bond (152^22) is the only BEGOS Market in positive territory, the weakest being Copper (2.4350, -1.6%). Gold's (1092.2) trading resistance is more visible now at 1107 (see Market Profiles); watch Gold's "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page, the blue dots turning back up for now; at the Market Magnets page, you can see Gold finished yesterday some 38 points below that measure. The Spoo's (2106.25) 6-hr. Price Oscillator is nearing negativity; confirmation would yield a Market Rhythm Target 20 points below the following period's open. Existing Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
21 Jul '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Again, Gold (1105.8) is the most volatile of the BEGOS Markets, but far less so than in the prior session, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far being just 76%; at Market Profiles, you can see Gold is most commonly being traded (these last 2 sessions) around the 1107 handle. Oil (50.45) is the quietest of the bunch having traced just 24% of its EDTR. 7 of the 8 components are higher this morning, the sole laggard being the Bond (151^14), off just -0.3%. Data for the Econ Baro remains absent today; Q2 Earnings Season is now well under way and thus far mediocre.
20 Jul '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: Gold (1114.1) was tagged with a 48-point plunge in less than 60 seconds early in the session at 18:29 PT (Sunday), trading as low as 1080.0 on Asian selling; we wonder if that was the capitulative bottom; Gold EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing for the session is 419%; In real-time, our Market Values and Market Magnets indicate Gold as well oversold. The other 7 BEGOS Markets remain dis-affected, with volatility running only light-to-moderate. Even Silver (14.765) has comparatively traced just 91% of its EDTR. The Econ Data calendar is light for this week; the FOMC meets next week.
17 Jul '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper (2.5010, -0.8%) having traced 61% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), this is the most subdued we've seen BEGOS Markets volatility in some time; the balance of the other 7 components are just either side of "unch". The S&P 500 at 2124 is just 10 points from its all time high of 2134 (22 Jun). Gold (1142.9) made a new low for the year yesterday (1140.6), the Dollar (97.705) returning to its highest level since 23 Apr. Volume in the Aug Oil (50.85) cac is moving into Sep (51.18): 1st notice for delivery is next Thu, 23 Jul. CPI & Housing at 05:30 PT.
16 Jul '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.0896) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0921 ($1,000/cac profit from the 1.1001 entry price on 29 Jun). Again, the Market Rhythms page lists those that have been producing the best track records. Both Gold (1143.8) and Silver (14.965) are hovering above their year-to-date lows (1141.6 and 14.620 respectively). BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate thus far, with no 1 component presently 1% or more away from yesterday's settles. Early in Q2 Earnings Season, 54% of companies have better their bottom lines. Philly Fed is due at 07:00 PT.
15 Jul '15, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are more subdued thus far ahead of Yellen's congressional appearance (statement @ 05:30 PT,testimony @ 07:00 PT). The only 2 components exceeding 50% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are Copper (2.5640, 65%) and Oil (52.82, 53%); moreover, Copper is up the most (+0.9%) and Oil down the most (-1.0%). The 3rd broadest EDTR tracing is the Swiss (1.0567) at just 37%. The Euro's (1.1024) Market Rhythm Target remains at 1.0921, the daily MoneyFlow still to the SellSide. PPI and the NY Empire Index also come due @ 05:30 PT.
14 Jul '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with only the Bond (148^25) and EuroCurrencies in positive territory. Still, the Euro's (1.1038) daily MoneyFlow is leaning well to the SellSide (the present reading of 24.87 [scale 0-to-100] the lowest since 13 March); we thus maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 1.0921. The weakest components are Oil (51.31, -1.3%) and Silver (15.295, -1.2%). All 8 Markets are now in 21-day linreg downtrends (see Market Trends). At Market Magnets, the Spoo (2093.75) is extremely high above that measure. Econ Data begins in earnest through week's end.
13 Jul '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: Greece in giving up much sovereign control of itself (for €86bn) has furthered the selling in the Bond (148^18) such as to nix our Market Rhythm Target of 156^24), in turn giving a boost to the Spoo (2082.50) which is thus far the most volatile of the 8 BEGOS Markets in having traced 138% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Still, only the Spoo and Copper (2.5560) are in the black, the other 6 components being lower. The Euro (1.1078) is pressured such that its daily MoneyFlow remains on the SellSide as does the Target of 1.0921. Mind Earnings Season for Q2 and the Econ Baro.
10 Jul '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's rebound fizzle, the Spoo (2067.25) is back up near the high of yesterday's trade as China again bounces, and turning 180° is Greece towards its creditors. This is a boost for the EuroCurrencies, the Euro (1.1207) itself +1.5%, but its daily MoneyFlow is still to the SellSide; the Bond's (150^05) daily Price Oscillator remains negative; however, both these markets' respective Market Rhythm Targets (1.0921 and 156^24) are under pressure as those studies for the present are not as firm. Save for the Bond, the 21-day trends are down for the other 7 BEGOS Markets.
09 Jul '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: The Bond (153^05) did confirm the positive cross of its daily Price Oscillator such as to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 156^24; the Euro's (1.1065) downside target of 1.0925 is still in play as the daily MoneyFlow remains to the SellSide. BEGOS Markets volatility is thus far moderate, the exception being Silver (15.310) which has traced 138% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Metals, Oil (52.92) and the Spoo (2059.75) are getting a rebound bid this morning (China bounced). Greece's last proposal gasp is due its lenders by 15:00 PT; again, the EU's "Grexit" decision is due Sun.
08 Jul '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility remains robust across the BEGOS Markets as reflected on our Market Ranges page of each component's EDTR ("expected daily trading range"); due is given next Sunday's (12 Jul) potential "Grexit" plus the ongoing downside turmoil in China's stock markets. The Bond's (153^23) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to positive: should it confirm, a Market Rhythm Target of 2^15 would be added to the opening price of the ensuing session. The Euro's (1.1024) daily MoneyFlow continues to the SellSide, targeting 1.0921. FOMC Minutes due at 11:00 PT.
07 Jul '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.0977) has touched lower levels not seen in over a month, (the May low was 1.083); our Market Rhythm Target per the daily MoneyFlow is still 1.0921. After Oil's (52.66) fallout yesterday, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is the narrowest (43%) of the BEGOS Markets thus far. Copper's (2.4810) is the widest at 149%, the red metal also off the most (-2.1%) of the 8 components. The Bond (153^04) has returned to its highest level since 02 Jun and is up the most (+0.9%) in BEGOS. Trade Deficit due at 05:30 PT. Again, Q2 Earnings Season (see our link) has begun.
06 Jul '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: This Globex Monday session which began late Thursday is volatile given the Greeks' "no" vote and now their FinMin having resigned anyway. But the Spoo (2054.00) is well off its session low (2034.25) and Gold (1164.2) subdued after reaching up to 1174.4. Both Oil (53.98) and Copper (2.5285) are off by better than -4%. Getting the bid, of course, is the Bond (151^12, +1.4%). The Euro (1.1039) has traded as low as 1.0992, the daily MoneyFlow still to the SellSide and thus our Market Rhythm Target of 1.0921 remains in place. ISM Services @ 07:00 PT; Q2 Earnings Season begins.
03 Jul '15, 06:26 Pacific Time: Physical exchanges are closed today in the US, however the Monday GLOBEX session effectively opened late yesterday (Thu @ 15:00 PT), and there are some moves of note. The Bond (150^10) is up 0.7% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing already of 63%, the most thus far of the 8 BEGOS Markets. The Euro (1.1108) is near "unch" and its daily MoneyFlow is still to the SellSide, the Market Rhythm Target of 1.0921 thus being maintained. Gold's weekly Parabolics flipped to Short as we'll see in tomorrow's Gold Update, which also will highlight the mid-year BEGOS Standings.
02 Jul '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: StateSide, this is our final trading day of the week, highlighted by payrolls data due at 05:30 PT and Factory Orders at 07:00 PT, after which we'll update the Econ Baro and most traders will "leave the building". BEGOS Markets markets volatility is thus subdued, the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing greater than 50% being Gold's (1161.2) at 64%; 'tis also the weakest of the bunch -0.6%, whilst Oil (57.20) is the firmest +0.6%, but its daily Parabolics have gone negative. The Euro's (1.1086) daily MoneyFlow remains to the SellSide, Market Rhythm Target = 1.0921.
01 Jul '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are flat to lower this morning, the 1 exception being the Spoo (2070.00) which +0.7% is "due" for a rally day given that 7 of its last 8 trading days have seen the low come after the high; the Spoo is also the the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing winner at 114%, the Bond (149^12, -0.7%) tracing the 2nd most at 75%. The daily MoneyFlow on the Euro (1.1118) is still to the SellSide and thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1.0921 remains intact. Greece events remain indeterminably "noisy". ADP payrolls due @ 05:15 PT followed by ISM & Construction data @ 07:00 PT.
30 Jun '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: Correcting Semantics: missing today's payment due the IMF puts Greece in "arrears"; missing the 20 July payment due the ECB would be "default". The Euro's (1.1190) daily MoneyFlow confirmed going negative per Friday's settle: the Market Rhythm Target is 1.0921. Of the 8 BEGOS Markets, just 2 are higher: Oil (58.69. +0.7%) and the Spoo (2059.75, +0.5%); Copper (2.6040) is the weakest at -1.1%. But both Oil's daily Price Oscillator and the Spoo's daily MoneyFlow have provisionally crossed to negative. Due: Chicago PMI (06:45 PT) & Consumer Confidence (07:00 PT).
29 Jun '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Given Greece's expected default tomorrow, the BEGOS Markets opened Sunday (15:00 PT) with significant gaps in predictable directions, the strongest being the Bond (150^20, +1.9%). The Precious Metals are expectedly higher as well and the EuroCurrencies lower. Off the most is Oil (58.09, -2.6%), whilst the Spoo's (2071.25, -1.2%) opening trade of 2064.00 was 31.50 points below Friday's 2095.50 settle. Copper's (2.6235, -0.7%) 12-hr. MACD is still positive but with the Market Rhythm Target reduced to 2.6555 (in effect already reached) in accounting for the Jul-Sep cac rollover.
26 Jun '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (Sep 15.825) was hit just at midnight (00:00 PT) by a hard bout of selling, driving price to as low as 15.480, before more than recovering in full withing 1/2 hour's time: 'twas enough to have caused an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far of 137%, whereas that for the other 7 BEGOS Markets is only light-to-moderate. 4 components are up and 4 are down, none presently with any material net change: the Swiss is the firmest (1.0756, +0.5%) and Oil the weakest (59.49, -0.3%). Unresolved Greek talks move to a Sat/Sun session as default looms on Tue, (30 Jun).
25 Jun '15, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold's (1173.7) Market Rhythm Target of 1213.8 has been nixed as the daily MACD confirms turning negative, (the downside target becomes 1162.1, but we shan't chase it). Volume for the other 2 BEGOS Metals - Silver (15.775) and Copper (2.6085) - is moving from the Jul cac into that for Sep; Copper's 12-hr. MACD remains positive, its Target of 2.6610 (Sep) intact. Save for the Spoo (2109.25), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are in the red. The most volatile is the Swiss (1.0655) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%. Personal Income/Spending/PCE Inflation due at 05:30 PT.
24 Jun '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: With the exception of a rather narrow trading range for the Bond (149^03, EDTR [see Market Ranges] tracing of 37%), volatility for the balance of the BEGOS Markets is thus far moderate; 'tis as if the Bond is poised for more info on Greece, optimism there again waning. Gold (1177.0) this session has made a 3rd lower daily low, the MACD only just still positive: were it to confirm negative (at close), the Market Rhythm Target of 1213.8 would be nixed. Copper's (Sep 2.6215) 12-hr. MACD has crossed to positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 2.6610. Final Q1 GDP at 05:30 PT.
23 Jun '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, the exceptions being the Spoo (2117.00, +0.2%) and Copper (2.5950, +0.9%), the latter also tied with the Swiss (1.0755, -1.2%) for the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 110%; the Spoo's tracing is the most docile at just 31%. Gold's (1182.4) decline yesterday was not sufficient so as to change the daily MACD to negative: thus the Market Rhythm Target remains 1213.8; at our Market Magnets page, Gold had reached an area above its magnet to warrant some snap back. Durable Orders @ 5:30 PT/New Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
22 Jun '15, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is wider than is the norm for a Monday, running at a fairly moderate pace across the component's spectrum with Greece's financial state in the balance. Optimism is reflected in the Spoo (2113.50) gapping up 8.75 points from Friday's close to the 1st trade on Sunday (15:00 PT), and now is +15.50 (0.8%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 72%. Not surprisingly, the 3 BEGOS metals and the Bond (150^20, -0.9%) are lower. Oil (60.42) is our best upside market at +1.2%. The current Gold Update edition points to Gold's (1193.00) positive "stirring".
19 Jun '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold's (1201.9) daily MACD indeed confirmed a positive cross: our Market Rhythm Target is 1213.8. Oil's (59.57) volume is moving into the Aug cac (59.95) as next Wed (24 Jun) is 1st notice for Jul delivery. BEGOS Markets Volatility appears "messy" thus far, running from light for Gold with just a 31% tracing of tits EDTR (see Market Ranges) to a robust 123% tracing for Copper (2.5745), which with Oil represents the downside of the components (respectively off -1.2% and -1.6%), whilst the upside leader is the Bond (150^28), +0.5%. No scheduled Econ Data due for today.
18 Jun '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: With the Dollar (93.865) breaking down a bit to its lowest level since 18 May, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black, led by Oil (60.68, +1.5%) with an EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of 97%, and Gold (1197.7, +1.1%) tracing the most of the components at 117%. The Euro (1.1422) is the most docile EDTR tracer at 61%. Per the prior two comments, Gold's daily MACD is again provisionally poised to confirm a positive cross by session's close, from which we'd seek 12 points higher still from the next session's first trade. A bevy of incoming Econ Data is due at 05:30 PT and 07:00 PT.
17 Jun '15, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed as is their volatility thus far. Up the most is Oil (61.14, +1.9%), also sporting the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 86%. The Bond (151^13) Silver (15.950) and Gold (1178.6) are the weaker components, all -0.2%, and Gold having the narrowest EDTR tracing of just 32%; Gold did not confirm the provisional positive crossing in its daily MACD that we'd seen yesterday, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are presently nudged up again for the 3rd consecutive day. FOMC Policy Decision due at 11:00 PT; press conference at 11:30 PT.
16 Jun '15, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets spectrum a day ahead of the FOMC Policy Decision. Only the Bond (151^16) and Oil (59.83) are to the upside. Copper (2.6270) is the weakest component, -0.8%, and has the widest tracing of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 79%. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are turning back up, and the daily MACD provisionally is making a positive cross: were that signal to be confirmed at today's settle, we'd set a Market Rhythm Target for a further 12 points higher from the next session's open. Housing Starts/Permits @ 05:30 PT.
15 Jun '15, 04:26 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update emphasizes Gold's (1175.6) having gone aloof to all the financial turbulence around it such as to be compressing the trading range. But this morning, second only to Copper's (2.6340) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 111%, Gold has already traced 107% of its own EDTR. Of concern are the negative states of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both Gold and Silver (15.885), however in real-time this session, they may be hitting bottom. The Spoo (2074.50) gapped lower at Sunday's open and is -0.5%. Empire Index @ 05:30 PT.
12 Jun '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: With Monday being 1st position for the EuroCurrencies, cac volume is moving from Jun into Sep; leading the BEGOS Markets volatility thus far is the Euro (1.1187) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 73%; at the narrow end of market movement is the Spoo (2095.00) with just a 39% tracing ahead of the PPI due at 05:30 PT. The Bond (150^15) is quietly higher following its largest up day since (+2^22) since 31 Oct 2011 as resolving Greece's debt dilemma turns doubtful. Silver's (15.895) "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are at their lowest level since last 06 Oct.
11 Jun '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently in the red, the sole exception being the Bond (147^25) which is higher by a mere ^01 pip. Copper (2.6920) is off the most at -1.9% and has far and away the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 153%. 2nd in tracings is Gold (1178.8, -0.5%) at 70%. We've some Market Rhythm Targets warranting caution, one being Oil's (cur 60.52, tar 62.14) daily Parabolics confirming positive, but price follow-throughs have been weak. The Spoo (Jun 2105.75, Sep 2098.00) rolls into Sep today, (Fair Value = -8.77). Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT.
10 Jun '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil (61.52) and the 3 BEGOS Metals are the hot markets thus far: Oil is up the most at +1.7% and Copper (2.7550) at +1.5% has the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 139%. Silver (16.100) is +1.2% with a 79% tracing, and Gold (1185.7) is +0.8% with a 110% tracing. Markets mildly in the red are both the Bond (148^02, -0.4%) and Euro (1.1266, -0.2%); still for the latter, its daily MoneyFlow study and "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are presently notched higher. Today is the last full session with the Jun Spoo (2087.00) as the "front month". Tomorrow rolls into Sep.
09 Jun '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: With volatility running moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of the bunch is Oil (59.32, +1.8%), followed by the Precious Metals: Silver (16.075, +0.9%) and Gold (1181.2, +0.7%). Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is the Spoo (2076.25) at 81%; equities and the EuroCurrencies are lower. That said, the Baby Blues (see Market Trends) for both the Euro (1.1275) and Swiss (1.0776) are turning higher within their still negative 21-day linreg trends; indeed the Euro's daily MoneyFlow study is pointing to 1.1400; (cac volume rolls to Sep later this week).
08 Jun '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate and the components are mixed: 4 are down and 4 are up, the latter being the Bond (149^29), EuroCurrencies and Gold (1174.3). The biggest changer is Copper (2.6860, -0.6%), which gets notable mention in the current edition of The Gold Update as being off 41% over the past 4 years, yet the stock market has nonetheless climbed throughout. Oil's (58.68) daily Parabolic has confirmed flipping to Short without reaching its LongSide target. The week's load of incoming Econ Data is light until Thu (Retail Sales) and Fri (PPI & Sentiment).
05 Jun '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil (57.83) is lower again, threatening the still Long stance of its daily Parabolics; the rising flip price for today is 57.16, well-within range given Oil's EDTR (see Market Ranges) being 1.87 points. Volatility is moderate at best across the BEGOS Markets, the weakest of which is the Bond (150^20, -0.4%). Silver (16.105) is the firmest component, +0.2%, albeit with the narrowest EDTR tracing thus far at just 27%. Per Market Trends, 7 of the 8 markets are in negative 21-day linreg trends, the only one just barely positive being the Spoo (2097.75). May Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
04 Jun '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Oil's (59.62) daily Parabolics remain to the LongSide and thus our Market Rhythm Target of 61.79 is still firm; the rising level to nullify the signal is presently 56.98. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, 6 of the 8 components being down: the EuroCurrencies are the exceptions, the Euro (1.1348) itself +0.6% and the Swiss (1.0759) +0.4%. Both Copper (2.6990) and the Euro are leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 104% and 102% respectively; the Precious Metals are subdued within BEGOS and trading mildly lower. Q1 Productivity update at 05:30 PT.
03 Jun '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0684) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0708); Oil's (59.94) Target of 61.79 is still open, albeit price is lower this morning as are those for 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets: only the Spoo (2113.50) is up. Gold's (1190.3) 8-hr. Parabolics are provisionally swinging to negative which, if confirmed at 08:00 PT, would suggest a move down of at least 12 points (we shan't chase it); per Market Profiles, 1189 remains Gold's dominant apex; per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are at 0%, meaning the 21-day LinReg trend has turned trendless. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT.
02 Jun '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.1037) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.1024; that for the Swiss (cur 1.0646, tar 1.0708) remains in play, as does the one for Oil (cur 61.01, tar 61.79); Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are just hooking higher rather than continuing their descent. Volatility is thus far more robust than at this time yesterday, the laggard being Silver (16.735) with an EDTR tracing of just 35%); tracing the most of its EDTR is the Spoo (2102.50) at 106%. As noted at the Market Rhythms Page we've adjusted the MoneyFlow study's triggering metric. Factory Orders due at 07:00 PT.
01 Jun '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: June begins, this week carrying a heavy Econ Data calendar culminating with payrolls data on Friday. With the exception of the Spoo (2108.50), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil (59.60) being the weakest at -1.0%; still, Oil's daily Parabolics have confirmed a swing to Long, the Market Rhythm Target being 61.79. Other targets remain intact for the Euro (cur 1.0918, tar 1.1024) and Swiss (cur 1.0575, tar 1.0708). Gold (1185.9) has the broadest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far at 99%: the current edition of The Gold Update makes the mathematical case for 1400 this year.
29 May '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.0973) Market Rhythm Target of 1.1024 remains in play basis the positive 6-hr. MACD; as anticipated the Swiss' (1.0623) 12-hr. Parabolic did confirm as positive (yesterday at 12:00 PT at 1.0612), the Target there being 1.0708. With the exception of the Spoo's (2118.75) EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of thus far of 60% and that for Copper (2.7655) of 52%, volatility is light amongst the balance of the BEGOS Markets ahead of what is supposed to be a lower revision to Q1 GDP at 05:30 PT. The Chi PMI is then due at 06:45 PT and UofM Sentiment at 06:55 PT.
28 May '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: A day ahead of Q1's GDP revision, volatility is again light-to-moderate across the BEGOS Markets; presently, all 8 components are essentially either side of "unch". At 18:00 PT yesterday, the Euro's (1.0891) 6-hr. MACD confirmed a positive crossing for which our Market Rhythm Target is 1.1024; the Swiss' (1.0536) 12-hr. Parabolic may confirm going positive by week's end. As noted, today is the last day to undo positions in the Jun Bond (156^16) and Jun Gold (1185.4) as 1st notice for the products' delivery is tomorrow (29 May). Slowing Pending Home Sales are due @ 07:00 PT.
27 May '15, 04:19 Pacific Time: Gold (1185.5) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1184.0. The 3 BEGOS Markets metals are all mildly lower as is the Bond (155^21), with volatility running light-to-moderate across all 8 BEGOS components. Look for volume on the both the Bond and Gold to begin moving respectively into the Sep and Aug contracts as 1st notice for both markets is Friday (29 May). Again, at Market Trends, mind the "Baby Blues" as only those for the Bond, and now just barely for the Spoo (2107.00), are rising, the blue dots of the other 6 Markets falling. Econ Data calendar light today.
26 May '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: This "double-day" session that began Sunday (PT) now has Gold (1195.3) as the leader in EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 101%; Gold's 6-hr. Parabolic has confirmed as Short from 1196.0 with a Market Rhythm Target of 1184.0. Ironically, the narrowest tracing, 55%, is that of the Bond (154^28) which is the only BEGOS Market of the 8 that is higher (+0.5%).The weakest component is Silver (16.810, -1.7%), its daily MACD just short of a negative cross. At Market Trends, only 2 components with rising "Baby Blues" are the Bond and Spoo (2120.75).
25 May '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: StateSide and London bourses are closed today, but the BEGOS Markets are electronically open (Tuesday settles). Up the most is Copper (2.8200, + 1.0%), the red metal leading as well in the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 82%. Oil (59.24) is the weakest component, -1.3% with an EDTR tracing that ranks 2nd at 54%. Per the prior comment, neither the 6-hr. charts for the Euro (1.0981, MACD) nor Gold (1203.2, Parabolics) confirmed turning positive. Silver's (17.025) daily MACD may go negative this week, the "Baby Blues" now dropping (see The Gold Update).
22 May '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals are the session's BEGOS Markets upside leaders ahead of the long weekend, with the Swiss (1.0733) tracing the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 79%. The Bond's (154^21) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun curling up from the floor, suggesting higher prices near-term: at Market Profiles, the Bond has moved above notably support apices at 154^10 and 152^20. Our 6-hr. charts show both the Euro's (1.1178) MACD near to confirming a shift to positive as well as do Gold's (1210.8) Parabolics. CPI due at 05:30 PT.
21 May '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: Again we've light-to-moderate volatility thus far across the BEGOS Markets; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is the Euro (1.1162) at 72%; the narrowest at just 30% is the Spoo (2119.00), which is the only component of the 8 that is presently in the red. Our strongest market, +1.6%, is Oil (59.72), however its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating lower as are those for Copper (2.8420), the Euro and the Swiss (1.0734). Amongst the Econ Data rush due at 07:00 are April's Leading Indicators: given the state of our Econ Baro, they may be in for a miss.
20 May '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil (58.51) achieved its 58.34 Market Rhythm Target; there are 33 best performing Market Rhythms currently listed at that page, a larger than average list due to an increase in recent BEGOS Markets volatility, which in the present session is running only light-to-moderate with the FOMC's April meeting Minutes in the balance (11:00 PT). At the Market Trends pages, the "Baby Blues" are breaking down more so for Oil, as well as for Copper (2.8285) and as previously noted for the Euro (1.1107) and Swiss (1.0664). Our Market Values page has the Bond (152^18) still quite excessively low.
19 May '15, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility is notably robust in 4 of the 8 BEGOS Markets: with their prices, changes and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings they are Copper (2.8605, -1.7%, 130%), the Euro (1.1207, -1.0%, 117%), Silver (17.470, -1.3%, 95%) and the Swiss (1.0754, -0.5%, 93%); given partial credit thereto is a pickup for the pace of EuroZone QE, and UK deflation. Our 11 May comment on the EuroCurrencies "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) kinking lower is seeing them now starting to more materially crack. Oil's (Jul 59.80) Market Rhythm Target of 58.34 is still in play. Housing data @ 05:30 PT.
18 May '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Volume in Jun Oil (60.27) is moving into Jul (61.04) such that the Market Rhythm Target (per Oil's negative Daily Parabolics) becomes 58.34 (basis Jul); 1st Notice for Jun is this Thursday (21 May). Volatility is starting the week at a moderate pace across the BEGOS Markets, the mild exception being the Bond (155^01) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 36%. The Precious Metals are higher, Gold's (1226.6) new weekly Parabolic Long trend as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update. Q1 Earnings Season ends with the weakest improvement since Q3 of 2009.
15 May '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Volatility is fairly moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the laggards in EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being the Spoo (2120.25) at 30% and Oil (59.70) at just 26%; the latter's Market Rhythm Target of 57.52 per the negative daily Parabolics remains intact. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have slipped in real-time this morning to their lowest level (+81%) since 13 April, suggesting the 21-day uptrend's consistency is close to cracking. The Bond (154^00) is the upside leader (+0.5%) and the Swiss (1.0861) the weakest at -1.1%. NY Empire Index comes due at 05:30 PT.
14 May '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.1434) has nixed its downside Market Rhythm Target of 1.1037, the daily Parabolic provisionally reversing to positive this session. Oil's (60.43) daily Parabolic still remains short and targeting 57.52. Keep an eye on our Market Trends page for potential breakdowns in the "Baby Blues" for the Euro, Swiss (1.1001), Oil, and Copper (2.9245). At our Market Values page, the Bond (152^09) appears excessively oversold. Gold's (1218.3) weekly Parabolic has provisionally flipped to positive as we'll see in the 16 May Gold Update. Incoming Econ Data is abundant these next two days.
13 May '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: In addition to yesterday's mention for the Euro's (1.1236) Market Rhythm Target of 1.1037, we've added one for Oil (cur 61.25, tar 57.53) based on its daily Parabolics having actually confirmed as negative late last week when price was lower at 59.02; the upside risk for such position is presently 62.06, (all basis the May cac for which 1st Notice is 21 May). BEGOS Markets' volatility has backed off today, the only Market exceeding a 50% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being Silver (16.755) at 76% and up the most of BEGOS at +1.5%. Retail Sales & Ex/Im Pricing at 05:30 PT.
12 May '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: Practically a mirror image from this time yesterday: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black, (save for the Bond [151^30, -0.7%] and the Spoo [2083.75, also -0.7%]), with volatility robust across the spectrum. Oil (60.29) has the narrowest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 76% and the Swiss (1.0831) the widest at 117%. The Euro (1.1245) did confirm a negative flip on its daily Parabolics such as to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 1.1037. All three metals are up by better than 0.7%. Econ Data is light today, but it becomes more plentiful into the balance of the week.
11 May '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are starting the week with mostly light volatility, albeit all 8 are mildly in the red. The widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is that by the Bond (155^16) at 62%; least volatile is the Spoo (2107.75) with just a 22% EDTR tracing; there is no scheduled Econ Baro data. The Baby Blues (see Market Trends) are a kink down in real-time this morning for the EuroCurrencies, meaning their upside consistency is beginning to weaken: the Euro's (1.1149) daily Parabolics would confirm going negative today should 1.1136 trade. 3rd PBOC rate cut in 6 months.
08 May '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Save for the 2 EuroCurrencies the other 6 BEGOS Markets are up, with volatility running light-to-moderate ahead of the Apr Payrolls Data due at 05:30 PT. We're keen on Copper's (2.9190) 12-hr. MACD provisionally crossing to negative: were that to be confirmed at 12:00 PT, a Market Rhythm Target of 0.0440 ($1,100/cac) lower would be established. Other studies nearing negativity are the Euro's (1.1227) daily Parabolics and Oil's (59.37) 8-hr. Price Oscillator. Look to our Market Rhythms page for those studies that have been profitably running. Wholesale Invs. @ 07:00 PT.
07 May '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Target for Silver (16.305, tar 16.850) looks to fail (come 08:00 PT) per the 4-hr. Price Oscillator having provisionally gone negative. Moreover, Silver's 12-hr. Parabolic is poised to flip to negative come 12:00 PT. Of the 8 BEGOS Markets, only the Bond (154^23) and Swiss (1.1001) are higher and volatility is solidly moderate, being led by both the Bond and the Spoo (2066.00) at 92% EDTR tracings (see Market Ranges). The Spoo would presently put the S&P down to 2072 at its open; a 10% correction for the S&P would arrive at 1913.33 (or 1905.92 on a closing basis).
06 May '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.420) Market Rhythm Target for 16.850 remains intact per the positive stance of the 4-hr. Price Oscillator. As anticipated, Oil's (61.77) 4-hr. Parabolic did flip to Long, price continuing to push higher into the 60s, +1.8% on the session and tracing its EDTR (see Market Ranges) the most of the BEGOS Markets at 77%. Those 8 markets are thus far split with 4 up and 4 down, all sporting moderate volatility. Gold's (1189.8) daily Parabolic (1202.3) is now in its 17th day of being Short: the difference is 13 points and Gold's EDTR is 17 points. ADP jobs due at 05:15 PT.
05 May '15, 04:42 Pacific Time: The 6-hr. Price Oscillator on the Spoo (2105.50) did turn positive and thus nixed our 2069.75 Market Rhythm Target. We've two newer targets, both on the 4-hr. series for Silver's (16.530) Price Oscillator (Long tar 16.850) and wrongly for Oil's (59.61) Parabolics (Short tar 57.23), the latter likely not to pan out as Oil is up the most (+1.2%) thus far in BEGOS and looks to confirm a flip to Long come 08:00 PT; 'twould be Oil's 1st foray into the 60 handle since mid-December. Ex-the Spoo, all 7 other BEGOS Markets are up. Trade Balance @ 05:30 PT & ISM Services @ 07:00 PT.
04 May '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2107.00) 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, however less so with Friday buying carrying over into the new week. Volatility is fairly moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (1.1142) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings so far at 71%; least rangy is the Bond (157^18) with a 38% tracing. Silver (16.315) is up the most at +1.2%, whilst Copper (2.9130) is down the most at -0.7%; the red metal has had a good 2-week run but there are early indications of its 8-hr. Parabolic getting flipped to Short in the next day or two. Factory Orders come due at 07:00 PT.
01 May '15, 04:42 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.160) 8-hr. Parabolic Long signal flipped at a $2,300/cac loss to Short in yesterday's precocious metals' plunge, the good news for the Bull there being the noted current price being well up off the fallout's low of 15.815. The Spoo's (2087.00) 6-hr. Price Oscillator did confirm going negative, the Market Rhythm Target being 2069.75. Volatility is lighter thus far today as Euro-bourses are closed for their 01 May holiday; the most volatile BEGOS component is the Bond (158^24), having traced 60% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). 3 items of Econ Data due at 07:00 PT.
30 Apr '15, 04:24 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (1.0701, tar 1.0616) has been met. The Target for Silver (16.565, tar 16.795) is still active as the 8-hr. Parabolic remains Long. The session's volatility in the BEGOS Markets is more robust today: the Euro (1.1190) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 128%, with Copper (2.8340) running 2nd at 91% and up the most at +1.4%; Gold (1201.4) is the most docile of the 8 components with a 49% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's (2095.00) 6-hr. Price Oscillator may confirm as negative at 06:00 PT, but Econ Data is first due at 05:30.
29 Apr '15, 04:43 Pacific Time: Save for the EuroCurrencies, the remaining 6 BEGOS Markets are all presently lower ahead of Q1 GDP (05:30 PT) and the FOMC (11:00 PT). Gold (1207.7) has hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1213.6; the level to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long is 1216.8. Targets for both Silver (16.470, tar 16.795) and the Swiss (1.0509, tar 1.0616) remain intact. Volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (160^07), Silver and Copper (2.7720) with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings all leading at 50%. At Market Magnets, the Euro (1.1002) appears to becoming stretched to the upside.
28 Apr '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Another light-to-moderate volatility session thus far with no one BEGOS component excessively one way or the other. Up the most is the Euro (1.0946, +0.4%) and down the most is Copper (Jul 2.7770, -0.4%) which has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 2.7860. The Swiss (1.0469) 12-hr. Parabolics remain Long with the 1.0616 Target, and we've added for Gold (1203.2) per its 8-hr. MACD Long stance a Target of 1213.6, plus for Silver (Jul 16.390) per its 8-hr. Parabolics a Target of 16.795. Mind Q1 Earnings Season as Estimates trump Improvements. Confidence: 07:00 PT.
27 Apr '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Market are split to start the week, with 4 up and 4 down. The ups are the 3 metals and the Spoo (2116.25); the downs are the 2 EuroCurrencies, the Bond (168^18) and Oil (57.06); volatility is light-to-moderate. Volume in the May contracts for both Silver (15.795) and Copper (2.7560) is shifting into July; the red metal did confirm the aforementioned flip to Long per its 8-hr. Parabolics, the Market Rhythm Target being 2.7860 (Jul cac). The Swiss (1.0482) confirmed its flip to Long on the 12-hr. Parabolics, the Target there being 1.0616. FOMC Statement Wed.
24 Apr '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Coming into week's end we've a couple of provisional Market Rhythm signals: 1) Copper's (2.7280) 8-hr. Parabolic would confirm flipping Long at 08:00 PT, and 2) the Swiss' (1.0492) 12-hr. Parabolic looks to confirm a flip to Long come 12:00 PT. If confirmed, the Targets would be higher by 0.0400 ($1,000/Copper cac) and 0.280 ($1,400/Silver cac) from the opening price of their respective ensuing periods. With metals in mind, Gold (1186.4) has yet to materially succumb to recent negative signals in both the daily Parabolics and daily MACD. The Euro (1.0835) is leading volatility so far.
23 Apr '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Volatility is a bit lighter so far across the BEGOS Markets. The Swiss (1.0368) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0364; the currency is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Gold's (1189.4) popularly-watched daily MACD confirmed at close a negative crossing, provisionally partial cause for yet another move sub-1200; a glance at our Market Rhythms page suggests the follow-though for this study is $4,000/cac (40 points), which from the session's opening price of 1186.9 would bring 1146.9 in due course, (not a trade we'd take). New Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
22 Apr '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Again the Spoo (2086.75) is the BEGOS Markets volatility leader, having thus far traced 90% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the EuroCurrencies ranking 2nd, but well-behind (50%-60%); per yesterday's comment, the Swiss (1.0486) did not confirm a 4-hr. MoneyFlow Sell signal, but an 8-hr. Parabolic flip to Short has since been confirmed with a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0364 (a gain of $1,525/cac from the present price). At our Market Trends page, Silver's (16.015) "Baby Blues" have dropped below -80%, confirming the down 21-day LinReg trend. Existing Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
21 Apr '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2099.75) is leading the BEGOS Markets volatility with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 78%; least volatile are both the Bond (164^11) and Oil (57.46), both with EDTR tracings of just 35%, but the latter down the most in BEGOS at -0.8%. Silver (16.050) is up the most at +0.7%. The Swiss (1.0451) is approaching a 4-hr. MoneyFlow Sell signal, which if confirmed would have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.0120 points ($1,500/cac) lower from the opening of its then next 4-hr. opening period price; such Rhythm is currently listed on our Market Rhythms page.
20 Apr '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, with Copper (2.7465), Oil (56.84), and Silver (16.035) all off better than -1.0%. Only the Spoo (2086.50) is higher (+0.5%). Volatility is moderate across the board, with Copper leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 138%; 2nd is Silver at 88%. Gold (1197.3) continues to hover either side of 1200 as graphically depicted in the current Gold Update; the yellow metal has to date boffed the daily Parabolics Short signal (see our 15 Apr comment). Thus far for Q1 Earnings, 63% have beaten estimates, but only 56% have improved.
17 Apr '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2088.00) is -0.6%, which is the most thus far amongst the BEGOS Markets, along with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 100%; to the extent this is an effect of the Bloomy terminals outage, the Spoo's 6-hr. Price Oscillator may turn/confirm having gone negative by session's end or early in the new week; per the current Market Rhythms listing, an expected $2,000/cac further downside follow-through (40 points) would be the expectation upon confirmation. Volatility is otherwise moderate across the BEGOS bunch. CPI @ 05:30 PT, LEI & UofM Sent @ 07:00 PT.
16 Apr '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: Copper (2.7690) is firmer this morning (+1.7%) such as to provisionally flip the 8-hr. Parabolics to Long and thus nix the 2.6640 Market Rhythm Target, (the entry point for the position having been 2.7160 on 06 April). Moreover, save for the Spoo (2090.00) and Oil (55.53), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are up with volatility thus far running at quite a moderate pace. Still, Oil is the most consistent upside BEGOS component of the last 21 days per the "Baby Blues" at our Market Trends page. Per yesterday's resiliency comment, Gold (1207.8) has yet again recovered from the 1100s.
15 Apr '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Gold's (1191.2) daily Parabolics, as expected, have confirmed flipping to Short: 'tis not a position we would take, however the Market Rhythm Target is 1166.2; as a note of caution, Gold has been quite resilient upon its many crossings of the 1200 handle. Copper's (2.6885) Target of 2.6640 still has yet to get touched, but the 8-hr. Parabolics remain negative. BEGOS Markets volatility is a bit more subdued this session, the Euro (1.0600) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 64%; least so is the Bond (164^08) with a 30% EDTR tracing. NY Empire Index @ 05:30 PT.
14 Apr '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper (2.6855) is gliding lower into levels last seen on 20 March, the Market Rhythm Target of 2.6640 almost within reach given the present EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 0.0665 points. Per yesterday's comment, Gold's (1186.9) daily Parabolics look to confirm as having flipped to Short by day's end, which per our Market Rhythms page would suggest 26 points ($2,600/cac) lower still from the ensuing session's opening price, (not a trade we favour); Gold is the most volatile of the BEGOS Markets thus far with an EDTR tracing of 102%. Retail Sales and the PPI are due at 05:30 PT.
13 Apr '15, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets Spectrum, with Gold (1199.5) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 77%; the current Gold Update depicts the weekly parabolic trend as being in range for a flip from Short to Long; but the daily Parabolic trend may first flip Short should 1192.8 trade (today), and Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked lower. 7 of the 8 BEGOS components are down, the exception being Oil (52.38) +1.1%. Copper's (2.7335) 8-hr. Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, still targeting 2.6640. Heavy Econ Calendar this week.
10 Apr '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2088.50) 12-hr.MoneyFlow is poised for a Long Signal come 12:00 PT suggestive of 20 points higher still; we'd avoid it, as did we Gold's (1203.4) 12-hr. MACD going negative as noted yesterday. Copper's (2.7540) Market Rhythm Target of 2.6640 remains intact, basis the 8-hr. Parabolics. Silver (16.505) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 100% is the most volatile BEGOS Market so far; 'tis almost up the most at +2.2%. The Bond (163^09) is the least volatile, the EDTR tracing at just 20%. The EuroCurrencies' weakening continues. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
09 Apr '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Gold's (1198.9) Market Rhythm Target of 1229.8 was nixed overnight as the 12-hr. MACD confirmed turning negative; we shan't chase such Short, but the Target would be 1183.9. Per yesterday, Silver's (16.315) 8-hr. Parabolics did confirm flipping to negative, the Target there of 16.200 having already been touched. The same study for Copper (2.7440) is maintaining the 2.6640 Target. Volatility is more robust this morning: Silver is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings thus far at 74% and is the weakest BEGOS Market at -1.2%; Wholesale Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
08 Apr '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: Another light-to-moderately volatile session thus far, the most sweeping BEGOS Market being the Swiss (1.0431) which +0.5% has traced 52% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both Gold (cur 1210.0, tar 1229.8) and Copper (cur 2.7495, tar 2.6640). Silver's (16.835) 8-hr. Parabolics would trigger a Short signal were price to break below 16.790, a level well-within today's EDTR; also, Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have, in real-time, kinked lower this morning. The FOMC's 18 March meeting minutes are due for release at 11:00 PT.
07 Apr '15, 04:46 Pacific Time: Gold (1211.8) per the 12-hr. MACD is maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 1229.8. Yesterday, Copper's (2.7445) 8-hr. Parabolics triggered a Short signal, the Target there being 2.6640. Volatility is light-to-moderate across the BEGOS Markets spectrum, with a minimal amount of incoming Econ Data due until Feb Consumer Credit (12:00 PT). The EuroCurrencies are weaker and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings; the least volatile BEGOS component is the Bond (164^02), +.01% with a 24% tracing. Q1 Earnings Season has begun; watch it evolve per our menu link.
06 Apr '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: Thanks to any and all of you who patiently endured the website's being "propagated" over the weekend; the re-hosting is a success. Gold (1219.7) is responding as expected to the weak Mar payrolls data as critiqued in the current edition of The Gold Update, also which displays Silver (17.150) as the percentage leader of the 8 BEGOS Market year-to-date. At midnight PT, Oil's (50.40) 12-hour Parabolics flipped to Long to nix our Market Rhythm Target (45.70) but we shan't chase it higher. Gold's Target remains 1229.8, the session's high being 1223.5. ISM Services due at 07:00 PT.
03 Apr '15, 04:52 Pacific Time: Major global physical bourses are closed today with only limited electronic trading hours. The Economic Barometer has just been updated to account for the Mar Payrolls data, which well-missed expectations. NOTE: the website is being re-hosted this weekend such that there will be a multi-hour outage whilst the domain name gets "propagated" throughout the world-wide web. Apologies in advance should you encounter the "down-time"; we fully expect tomorrow's (Saturday's) weekly edition of The Gold Update to be uploaded as usual at 11:00 PT Good Passover/Easter to All.
02 Apr '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Yesterday's comment per our being dubious over the noted ShortSide Gold (1204.7) signal was itself short-lived, the 12-hr. MACD confirming a reverse to positive: the Market Rhythm Target is 1229.8. Oil's (48.61) 12-hr. Parabolics signal remains Short and the target still 45.70; Oil is off the most (-1.9%) of the BEGOS Markets and has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far (72%). Money is flowing into the Bond (166^16), the EuroCurrencies and Gold, and out from the other components. Most global physical bourses are closed tomorrow, with electronic hours reduced.
01 Apr '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2054.50) is recovering from an overnight low of 2033.50 and is far and away the most volatile of the session's BEGOS Markets, having traced 112% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver (16.550) ranks 2nd in volatility with just an 56% EDTR tracing. Gold (1184.0) yesterday confirmed a negative crossing of its 12-hr. MACD suggesting 1158.8, however we're ever-dubious about ShortSide Gold signals; at Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have crossed into positive territory. Oil's (47.28) Market Rhythm Target of 45.30 remains intact. ISM & Construction @ 07:00 PT.
31 Mar '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil's (47.68) 12-hr. Parabolics triggered to the ShortSide yesterday, the Market Rhythm Target being 45.70. Per yesterday's GLOBEX settles, all 8 BEGOS Markets are presently lower, Oil being off the most at -2.2%. Volatility is moderate across the components' spectrum, the Swiss (1.0315) being the most sweeping thus far with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 79%; Today is 1st Notice for physical delivery of Apr Gold (1184.2); (the Jun cac at 1184.4 is trading just 20¢ higher than Apr). Stocks look to open lower; Chi PMI due @ 06:45 PT and Cons Confidence @ 07:00 PT.
30 Mar '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Precious Metals are leading the BEGOS Markets volatility and commencing the week on the wrong foot: Gold (1183.1) is -1.3% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 94%, whilst Silver's (16.665) respective figures are -1.8% and 85%. The current Gold Update sees both markets as well-buoyed, but with the Spoo (2062.75) pointing to a +10 start for the S&P (2061 to 2071), quarter-end adjusting seems afoot; geo-jitters haven't subsided a wit. Mind both Market Profiles and Market Trends to keep it all in context. Personal Income/Spending due at 05:30 PT.
27 Mar '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Ahead of the final revision to Q4 GDP (05:30 PT), all 8 BEGOS Markets are trading lower with moderate volatility. Oil (50.55) is the weakest component, -0.9%, whilst the Spoo (2046.25) has thus largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far at 68%; the Spoo's Baby Blues (see Market Trends) have stalled in their recent upside flurry without have reached into positive territory, (the present "live" reading is -22%). At our Market Values page, Gold (1199.4) has finally returned back up to meet with its smooth valuation line; Gold's volume is shifting from the Apr cac into the Jun cac.
26 Mar '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: The LongSide Market Rhythm Targets have been achieved for both Oil (cur 51.30, tar 48.66) and Gold (cur 1208.4, tar 1213.5). For the Spoo (2040.25), its 12-hr. MACD triggered to the ShortSide yesterday at 12:00 PT (then 2062.75), the Target there being 2022.75; from the S&P's all-time high of 2119.59 (25 Feb), a 10% correction would bring 1907.63; the S&P's "live" p/e is 34.7%, the yield 2.046%. BEGOS Markets volatility is thus far strong with 4 of the 8 components well-exceeding their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) by better than 100%, (Metals @ Oil, the latter being +4.8%).
25 Mar '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: Gold's (1194.2 Apr, 1195.1 Jun) Market Rhythm Target per its daily Parabolics on the Jun cac has been revised to 1213.5 in revaluing the upcoming front month shift. For Oil (47.35), its Target per the 8-hr. Price Oscillator remains intact at 48.66. The volatility across the BEGOS Markets is fairly subdued thus far, Gold being the EDTR (see Market Ranges) leader with a 58% tracing. Silver's (16.980) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have just crossed in real-time into positive territory from where they've not resided since 09 Feb; Durables are due at 05:30 PT; Oil Inventories at 07:30 PT.
24 Mar '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: Yesterday at 08:00 PT, Oil's (47.68) 8-hr. Price Oscillator triggered a BuySide signal from 46.86; its Market Rhythm Target of 48.66 has yet to be reached; similarly, Oil's daily Parabolics have flipped to Long, the Target there being a bit higher at 48.96. Also going Long are Gold's (1193.3) daily Parabolics with a Target of 1214.5, (or 1215.1 Jun cac). BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with the exception of Copper (2.7960) which has already traced 141% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Econ Data due includes the CPI @ 05:30 PT followed by New Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
23 Mar '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Readers are encouraged to keep note of the declining Economic Barometer in both the menu at left and again as highlighted in the current Gold Update. The Spoo's (2095.25) daily Price Oscillator did confirm turning positive, thus nixing its Market Rhythm Target of 2008.50, however we shan't chase it to the upside. Copper's (2.7750) daily Parabolics have flipped to positive, the Market Rhythm Target being 2.8130. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate to start the week, the EuroCurrencies leading the EDTR (Market Ranges) tracings. Existing Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
20 Mar '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for the Spoo (2087.75) may confirm as positive by day's end, which would then nix the 2008.50 target; recall the conflict with the positive 12-hr. MACD as noted two comments ago. BEGOS Markets volatility is subdued, with both the FOMC and the week's incoming Econ Data now complete, the latter having shoved the Economic Barometer lower still. 7 of the 8 markets have EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of 50% or less; only Copper is somewhat robust with a 96% tracing thus far. Also, 7 of the 8 markets are higher, save for Oil (44.96) which is -1.4%.
19 Mar '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: As measured post-FOMC from the GLOBEX close (14:15 PT), 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, the exception being Copper (2.6420, +1.1%). The EuroCurrencies are very volatile, the Euro (1.0706) and Swiss (1.0130) having thus far respectively traced 180% and 175% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Silver (15.865) yesterday reached its Market Rhythm Target of 15.915, largely mitigating the Spoo's (2091.00) Short being underwater towards its target of 2008.50; the daily Price Oscillator guiding that position remains presently negative. The LEI & Philly Fed are due at 07:00 PT.
18 Mar '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2058.00) daily Price Oscillator continues to be negative and thus remains its 2008.50 Market Rhythm Target; counter to that, the 12-hr. MACD confirmed turning positive at midnight yesterday with an upside target of 2108.25; given the FOMC (11:00 PT) in the balance and the extreme over-valuation of the S&P ("live" p/e = 35.5x), we'll stick with the lower target until 'tis achieved or the daily Price Oscillator confirms as positive. Silver's (15.505) 8-hr. Parabolics are still Long (target 15.915). The Bond (162^10) & Swiss (1.0013) lead the BEGOS Markets, both +0.4%.
17 Mar '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets remain intact for both the Spoo (cur 2062.00, tar 2008.50) and Silver (cur 15.555, tar 15.915). Volume in Oil (43.04) is moving from the Apr contract into May (45.34) and is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets thus far, -1.7%. Copper (2.6515) is the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer at 118% and is the 2nd weakest component, -1.6%. The Bond (161^06) and EuroCurrencies are the gainers. One day ahead of the FOMC interest rate policy decision, the Economic Barometer continues its plunge; Feb Housing Starts and Building Permits due at 05:30 PT.
16 Mar '15, 04:28 Pacific Time: The week starts with our 2 Market Rhythm Targets in place: the Spoo (2050.75) is targeting 2008.50 per its still further negative reading this morning in its daily Price Oscillator, whilst Silver's (15.635) 8-hr. Parabolics continue to target 15.915. Volatility is moderate to this point across the BEGOS Markets, the Spoo tracing the largest of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 85%; least sweeping is the Swiss (0.9992) with a 41% tracing. Gold (1156.7) is only just lower from its Friday GLOBEX settle of 1158.4; the current Gold Update comprehensively portrays price as way too low.
13 Mar '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the breadth of the 8 BEGOS Markets. The EuroCurrencies contract volume is moving from Mar into Jun, as 'tis for the Spoo (2059.25). Despite the latter's rise yesterday, the daily Price Oscillator study nonetheless notched lower and has further done so per this point of the session: thus the Market Rhythm Target remains intact at 2008.50. At midnight (00:00 PT), Silver (15.530) confirmed a Long signal on the 8-hr. Parabolics: we've set a target there for 15.915. Again, Gold (1155.4) is very low (Market Values page). PPI @ 05:30 PT; Mich Sent @ 07:00 PT.
12 Mar '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper (2.6785) and the EuroCurrencies are dominating the BEGOS Markets volatility thus far: the red metal is +2.7% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 146%, whilst both the Euro (1.0632) and Swiss (0.9993) are +0.8% with respective EDTR tracings of 122% and 120%; indeed, all 8 of the BEGOS components are higher. The Spoo (2044.00) Front Month moves today into Jun (2036.50) for which the fair value is -8.42; the Spoo's daily Price Oscillator confirmed a Short signal yesterday: the Jun contract Market Rhythm Target is 2008.50. Feb Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT.
11 Mar '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are BEGOS' weakest markets and also the most volatile: the Euro (1.0576) is -1.1% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 139%, and the Swiss (0.9920) -0.9% with an EDTR tracing of 109%. Both Copper (2.6315) and the Spoo (2050.25) are +0.4%; for the latter, today is the last full trading session with Mar as the Front Month, although the volume shan't shift into Jun until Friday if not Monday. The Gold Update mentioned our notion of Gold (1158.6) applying its brake, which it has essentially done, currently week-to-date lower by less than -1%.
10 Mar '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: Thus far the session is reminiscent of Friday's with 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets in the red, the sole riser this time being the Bond (157^09, +0.3%). Copper (2.641) is off the most at -1.9%, which in confirming a daily Parabolic short signal at the open (yesterday at 15:00 PT, price 2.6680) has already hit hits Market Rhythm Target of 2.6160. The Spoo (2062.00) is near to its target of 2060.50 -- there, 'twas just achieved as we type. Gold (1162.6) per our Market Values page is now extremely low vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line. Wholesale Inventories for Jan due at 07:00 PT.
09 Mar '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: Silver (15.940) hit our Market Rhythm Target (15.840) on Friday; for the Spoo (2067.25), its target remains 2060.50 per the ongoing negative 12-hr. MACD study from 23 Feb. BEGOS Markets volatility is thus far moderate with Copper (2.6270) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 80%; least volatile is Oil (49.71) with just a 25% EDTR tracing. Gold (1173.9) is up the most at +0.5%, whilst Oil and the Spoo are off the most at only -0.1%, this following the selling across the BEGOS components on Friday. The Gold Update puts "Dollar Execeptionalism" into context.
06 Mar '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Ahead of the 05:30 PT Feb payrolls report, 7 of the 8 the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower on light-to-moderate volatility; the sole exception is Oil (50.99, +0.1%), but with just 21% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) thus far traced. The ShortSide Market Rhythm Targets remain in play for both the Spoo (cur 2099.00, target 2060.50) and Silver (cur 16.085, tar 15.840). The Euro (1.0947) is sub-1.10 for the 1st time since Sep '03. The Bond (158^23) is nearing a 4-hr. MoneyFlow signal (currently on the Market Rhythms page) to the LongSide, affected to be sure by the payrolls data.
05 Mar '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.185) daily Parabolics were short-lived on the LongSide and have confirmed their reversal to the ShortSide: our Market Rhythm Target has thus become 15.840. Oil's (51.89) target of 51.99 was attained overnight. Meanwhile, the Spoo's (2099.00) 12-hr. MACD study continues to target 2060.50; this move lower is similarly expected by the Spoo's daily Parabolics having swung to the ShortSide. Gold (1201.4) remains in a stalled mode such that its own 12-hr. Price Oscillator is still negative. ECB announcement/press conference @ 04:45/05:30 PT. Q4 Productivity @ 05:30 PT.
04 Mar '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Except for the Euro (1.1136) which has traced 70% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), BEGOS Markets volatility is subdued. Silver's (16.310) daily Parabolics have swung to positive, such that our Market Rhythm Target there is 16.785. (Neither have Silver's daily MACD nor Gold's [1205.3] 12-hr. Price Oscillator as yet have swung to positive). Still in place are targets for the Spoo (cur 2098.50) of 2060.50 per its 12-hr. MACD study and for Oil (cur 50.94) of 51.99 per its 4-hr. MACD. ISM Services Index for Feb is due at 07:00 PT and is expected to be down from the Jan read.
03 Mar '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver (16.435) is leading the BEGOS Markets thus far in volatility: 103% of the white metal's EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been traced; the daily MACD study has yet to turn positive. Gold's (1209.4) 12-hr. Price Oscillator also has yet to swing to positive. Oil's (50.56) 4-hr. MACD is pointing to a Market Rhythm Target of 51.99. Q4 Earnings Season is over: of 2,277 bottom lines collected, 59% were higher than a year ago, (other details via the menu's link); problematic to the S&P 500, our "live" p/e at 35.6x is more than double what by the textbook is "expensive"; yield 1.963%.
02 Mar '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and moderately volatile in beginning this week that has a hefty calendar of incoming Econ Data for our Econ Baro, (see the current Gold Update). Oil (48.85) is the session's weakest component, -1.4%, but with just 34% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far traced. The Spoo's (2104.25) 12-hr. MACD has furthered its negative stance, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 2060.50. Both Gold's (1215.1) 12-hr. Price Oscillator and Silver's (16.630) daily MACD are nearing turns to positive; the two market's studies are on the Market Rhythms listing.
27 Feb '15, 04:45 Pacific Time: [Corrected] Today is 1st Notice for the Mar Bond (146^14) as it rolls into Jun (161^12): the apparently large "contango" is due to the T-Bond's coupon difference during its '01-to-'06 absence. Session volatility is moderate across the BEGOS spectrum ahead of the first revision to Q4 GDP due at 05:30 PT; further Econ Baro inputs come into 07:00 PT from the Chi PMI, Michigan Sentiment and Pending Homes Sales. The Spoo's (2106.25) 12-hr. MACD remains negative; again, the Spoo's Market Rhythm Target during the signal is 2060.50. Only the EuroCurrencies are currently up.
26 Feb '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: Metals are leading the BEGOS Markets higher thus far. Gold (1218.4), should its low for the week (1190.0) now be in place and given an "expected" weekly trading range of 46 points, would appear en route to the 1230s; note that there remains a heavy dose of incoming econ data these next two sessions. Silver's (16.755) contract volume is shifting from Mar into May (16.795); as per our Market Trends page, both precious metals' "Baby Blues" are curling up from the floor now in realtime. The Spoo's (2112.75) 12-hr. MACD is still negative, with the Bond (147^17) moving higher at +0.5%.
25 Feb '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Silver (16.540) leads the BEGOS Markets volatility thus far with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 79%, the white metal also up the most at +1.6%. The least volatile is the Spoo (2111.00), -0.1% with an EDTR tracing of just 22%; the 12-hr. MACD signal remains to the negative side, (Market Rhythm Target: 2060.50). Of the primary BEGOS components, Gold (1208.7) appears the most oversold (per our Market Values page) at some 50 points below its smooth line. The Bond's (146^12) "live" Baby Blues (see Market Trends) have notched up. New Home Sales at 07:00 PT.
24 Feb '15, 04:42 Pacific Time: Fed Chair Yellen's address to the Senate Banking Committee begins at 07:00 PT, ahead of which BEGOS Markets volatility is running from light to moderate with price changes subtly mixed. At the start of Yellen's address also comes Consumer Confidence. The Spoo's (2106.50) 12-hr. MACD signal did whip back to negative yesterday: barring it whipping again, our Market Rhythms Target is 2060.50. Oil's (49.65) 4-hr. MACD may confirm a positive crossing within 24 hours, from which we'd look to a $1,200/cac follow-through; on our Oil page you can see the EDTR is currently 2.90 points.
23 Feb '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Volatility is a bit pepped up in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets, the Swiss (1.0541) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 106% for the session so far. Based on Friday's final GLOBEX settles, every BEGOS component is presently lower except for Silver (16.275, +0.2%). The Spoo's (2094.75) 12-hr. MACD signal confirmed back to positive per the session's Sunday open, but is now whipping back to negative, (earliest confirm would be 12:00 PT today), with an Market Rhythm target then of 42 points lower ($2,100/cac). See the Econ Baro in The Gold Update (!)
20 Feb '15, 04:50 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2094.75) 12-hr. MACD confirmed crossing negative at 00:00 PT this morning, (price then 2093.50). Per the Market Rhythms for this study, the expected price target is 2051.50 ($2,100/cac from the price at confirm), barring the study first confirming a cross back to positive. Again, per the Valuation & Rankings page, we calculate the S&P's (2097.45) p/e ratio as quite extreme, the "live" reading at 35.0x. As well, our Economic Barometer remains in full plummet. Session volatility is normal with Silver (16.455) performing best, +0.7%. Copper (2.5945) off the most, -0.9%.
20 Feb '15, 04:25 Pacific Time: Special Announcement --- A fifth technical study has been added to our Market Rhythms page: Parabolics. As is the case with the other four studies, Parabolics will be tested daily across all eight BEGOS Markets over seven time frames for each of them. As usual, those studies having recorded 70% or better probabilities of targeting specific levels of trading profit will be in the list.
19 Feb '15, 04:43 Pacific Time: Only the Precious Metals are presently higher across the BEGOS spectrum this morning; volatility is moderate. Silver (16.755) is the strongest component, +1.8% with Apr Oil (50.83) the weakest at -0.7% and achieving its Market Rhythm Target of 50.97 following the 4-hr. MACD having turned negative. For the Spoo (2091.25), its 12-hour MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: were that to become confirmed at the 12:00 PT reading, per our Market Rhythms page we'd seek a run down of at least $2,100/cac (42 points). Leading Indicators and Philly Fed due at 07:00 PT.
18 Feb '15, 04:42 Pacific Time: With respect to the FOMC's Jan Minutes (11:00 PT), our plunging Economic Barometer ought be kept in mind; it will be further affected this morning by incoming data on Housing Starts, the PPI and IndPrd/CapUtl. The BEGOS Markets are thus far mixed and volatility is subtle. Of interest is Oil (Mar 52.65, Apr 53.44) as volume moves into the latter contract: the 4-hr. MACD has crossed negatively, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 50.97 (Apr). Firm in the session are the Precious Metals, Gold (1207.7) and Silver (16.485) both mildly up. The Bond (144^03) is unchanged.
17 Feb '15, 04:46 Pacific Time: The StateSide Sunday-Tuesday session now finds Silver (16.730) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 125% leading the volatility in the BEGOS Markets: the white metal is -3.4%. The balance of the other components is negative, the bare exceptions being mild gains in the EuroCurrencies. Gold's (1221.4) 12-hr. MACD only confirmed positive for 1 period, before whip-sawing back to negative, yet that study still meets the criteria to make our Market Rhythms page. The Spoo (2092.50) has recouped its 12-point intra-session loss. NY Empire Index @ 05:30 PT, NAHB @ 07:00 PT.
16 Feb '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: What is designated StateSide as Tuesday's session, (bourses being closed for today's holiday), finds BEGOS Markets' volatility running at a light-to-moderate pace: Copper (2.6060) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings thus far at 54% with Oil (53.05) a close 2nd at 53%, the latter being up the most (+0.7%) in BEGOS. The weakest market (-0.3%) is the Bond (145^04), which at Market Trends is almost mirroring the 21-day LinReg downtrend of Gold (1233.7), the 12-hr. MACD of which is crossing up. S&P (2096.99) at extreme over-valuation per The Gold Update.
13 Feb '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: Oil (51.88) confirmed a positive crossing on its 4-hr. MACD yesterday at 16:00 PT, (the price then 51.23): the Market Rhythm Target of 52.43 has yet to be reached, (high since confirm: 52.28). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and the session's volatility rather subdued. Our "live" p/e for the S&P (2088.48) is 36.4x, evidence that beating earnings estimates is not translating into actual earnings growth. The Spoo (2087.00) has built in dominant trading support at 2063, the Bond (146^09) dominant trading resistance at 146^28. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT & UM Sentiment due at 07:00 PT.
12 Feb '15, 04:53 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Silver (cur 16.820, tar 16.710) was achieved, the white metal trading as low as 16.605 prior to its overnight rebound. Given negotiations in both Minsk for truce over the Ukraine and in Brussels for debt solutions over Greece, BEGOS Markets volatility is in fact fairly stable with no one component excessively tracing its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil's (50.28) 4-hr. MACD may turn positive as the session unfolds; that study per our Market Rhythms page is presently running at a 90% rate of $1,200/cac follow-through upon the confirmed crossovers.
11 Feb '15, 04:45 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.960) daily Price Oscillator confirmed as negative at yesterday's close: the Market Rhythm Target is 16.710, (or $1,300/cac from the present price). At Market Trends, the Baby Blues for both Silver and Gold (1237.2) have crossed into negative territory, thus the LinReg trends are now down. At Market Values, the Euro (1.1317) remains low via the oscillator, especially as price is consolidating; per Market Rhythms, mind the Euro's 8-hr. MACD study. Oil (49.94) is -2.0%, the session's weakest of the BEGOS Markets; the others are fairly subdued so far, as is volatility.
10 Feb '15, 04:37 Pacific Time: Except for the Spoo (2056.00), we've presently red across the board for the other 7 BEGOS Markets, the weakest and most volatile being Copper (2.5400, -1.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%. Gold (1236.8) has all but unwound its "ahead of itself" status (per The Gold Update) as valuation rises towards price, (see Market Values). However, Silver's (16.835) daily Price Oscillator is now in negative territory: were it to confirm as such at today's settle, the Market Rhythm would suggest some further near-term negativity. Bond (146^30) at better than a month's low.
09 Feb '15, 04:40 Pacific Time: Only the Euro (1.1313) and Spoo (2041.75) are in the red at this point, the latter suggestive of a 9-point drop for the S&P (2055.47) were it to presently open; the current edition of The Gold Update is quite wary of S&P fallout, especially given the plunge in our Economic Barometer as well as the S&P's truly expensive p/e of 31.3x and yield of just 1.995%. The session's strength is in Oil (52.85) as well as Silver (16.910), which is up the most (+1.2%) of the BEGOS Markets, but the white metal's daily Price Oscillator is nearing negative territory. No scheduled Econ Data is due.
06 Feb '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running below average ahead of the Jan payrolls data due at 05:30 PT. The session's most robust component is Oil (51.89) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 60%. At our Market Trends page, the Baby Blues continue to roll over for the Bond (149^05), Swiss (1.0880), Gold (1263.5) and Silver (17.230) as all 4 markets appear to be consolidating rather than continuing to fall. At Market Values, Gold's smooth valuation line is in steep ascent, such that the 1280-1240 zone ought remain supportive. Econ Baro is in free fall pre-payrolls.
05 Feb '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator study on the Spoo (2043.75) looks to turn positive within the next few trading days: we'll avoid any notion of a LongSide signal there. Silver (17.135) is leading the BEGOS Markets in volatility thus far, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 100%. Down the most in BEGOS is Copper (2.5385, -2.3%); up the most is Oil (49.16, +0.9%), which per our Market Values pages has finally returned up to its smooth valuation line. Still well-above its own valuation line is Gold (1262.2) centered in the 1280-1240 support zone. Q4 Productivity due at 05:30 PT.
04 Feb '15, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2035.00) 4-hr. MoneyFlow study finally confirmed as positive at 20:00 PT, thus nixing the Market Rhythm target of 1937.50; but the study's results now presently do not meet the Market Rhythm criteria to warrant a LongSide signal. Volatility is fairly normal across the BEGOS Markets spectrum; no 1 market is currently up nor down more than 0.5%. At our Market Values page, both the Bond (149^15) and Gold (1268.1) are working off their excessively high gaps relative to valuation, whilst at Market Trends, both markets' Baby Blues continue their rolling over.
03 Feb '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: 7 of 8 BEGOS Markets, (save for the Bond at 149^28), are presently in the black, the upside leaders being Copper (2.5670), Oil (50.93) and Silver (17.530), those 3 leading in EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings as well. Despite yesterday's turnabout in the Spoo (2024.50) and further upside this morning, its 4-hr. MoneyFlow is neutral (at 50.4) and shan't be confirmed as positive until a confirmed crossing above the 75 level: thus the Market Rhythm target of 1937.50 remains in place. Click on our Economic Barometer, for 'tis coming down quite swiftly. Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
02 Feb '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update describes price (1277.3) as having got a bit ahead of itself (see Market Values), the key going forward near-term being for the 1280-1240 support band to hold; Gold's Baby Blues (see Market Trends) are rolling over. BEGOS Markets volatility thus far is normal across the components' spectrum, save for Oil (49.31, +3.0%) having traced 149% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo's (1995.25) 4-hr. MoneyFlow has not confirmed a positive reversal and thus the Market Rhythm target of 1937.50 is intact. A big Econ Data week begins.
30 Jan '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are relatively subdued in terms of EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings ahead of the first look at Q4 GDP (05:30 PT): growth is expected to have slowed, which would be in line with our declining Economic Barometer. Presently, the only BEGOS component in the red is the Spoo (2004.50), -0.7%: its 4-hr. MoneyFlow study confirmed a ShortSide signal yesterday at 08:00 for a Market Rhythm target of 1937.50, (which given the current volatility is not that much of a stretch); the Spoo has also confirmed negative daily Price Oscillator and negative daily Parabolics stances.
29 Jan '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: With the Precious Metals falling, for the 2nd morning in the past 3 Silver (17.495) is leading the Volatility charge in BEGOS, the white metal having traced 115% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Gold (1269.0) follows with a 99% EDTR tracing; least volatile is Oil (44.47) with just a 22% tracing. The session's strength is in the Spoo (2002.00), +0.5%. The Swiss (1.0889) is trading at its lowest level since decoupling from the Euro (1.1315) 2 weeks ago. At our Market Values page, Gold's run to start the year is emphasized in just how far price is above the valuation line, hence some pullback.
28 Jan '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are notably subdued ahead of the Fed (11:00 PT); the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far of greater than 50% (at 54%) is the Spoo (2034.00), which would presently pull the S&P (2029.55) up to 2040 at the open. Contract volume in Gold (Feb 1291.2) is moving into Apr (1292.4): "1st notice" for delivery is Friday. The Bond's (149^20) 4-hr. Price Oscillator is flirting with either side of pos/neg, technically nullifying the 151^13 Market Rhythm target; the Bond's Baby Blues (see Market Trends) are just beginning to roll over lower.
27 Jan '15, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (17.885), whilst just -0.3%, is leading the BEGOS EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings thus far at 122%; the closest market to that is the Euro (1.1290) with a 77% tracing. Copper (2.5010) and the Spoo (2043.25) are BEGOS' weakest markets, our view toward the latter being very 'crash' sensitive as described in the current edition of The Gold Update, and our declining Economic Barometer may belie this Friday's Q4 GDP expectations. Gold's (1280.3) "live" Baby Blues are just presently rolling over in concert with the resistance from the 1290s. Durables @ 05:30 PT.
26 Jan '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold (1280.9) is 1 of 7 BEGOS Markets in the red this morning, the current edition of The Gold Update focusing on the 1290s having been a problematic technical area through much of last year. Silver (18.015) is off the most (-1.7%) in BEGOS, and has the broadest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far of 118%. Only the Bond (150^07) is presently in the black: per the Bond's 4-hr. Price Oscillator, we've a Market Rhythm Target of 151^13, lest that study first confirm going negative. The economic calendar is quiet today with the FOMC on Wed and Q4 GDP on Fri.
23 Jan '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: Not surprisingly, the Euro (1.1173) is leading BEGOS in the session's volatility, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point of 190%; price is -1.7%, down 2nd only to Copper (2.5160) which is -2.8%. Overall markets' volatility is shifting anticipated Market Rhythm signals about such that we're not honed in on any one, at least for the moment: keep an eye on our Market Rhythms page to see which signals have been producing the best reliability for profitability. Oil's (46.69) Baby Blues (Market Trends) are again ticking higher "live". LEI & Existing Home Sales at 07:00PT.
22 Jan '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil (48.83) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader at +3.2% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far of 69%; but Oil's daily Price Oscillator study has yet to turn positive, although the Baby Blues (see Market Trends) this morning have notably nudged higher (from -88% to -84%). The broadest EDTR tracing so far is the Bond's (148^06) of 71%; the 8-hr. MoneyFlow study for the Bond has all but triggered a Short signal, to which we'll be attentive, especially as the Bond's Baby Blues are presently rolling over. The ECB's €1T QE announcement is imminent (@ 04:45PT).
21 Jan '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Silver (18.240) so far tops the volatility list in BEGOS with an 81% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to this point; the white metal also leads in price movement, +1.3%. Copper (2.5405) ranks 2nd in EDTR (75%) tracing and is down the most (-2.0%); the red metal's 8-hour MACD may again cross negatively by week's end. Oil's (46.71) dwelling near recent lows is stalling the daily Price Oscillator study from turning positive (see 19 Jan comment). The Spoo's (2008.50) Baby Blues (see Market Trends) continue to fall, our live reading presently -73%. Housing Starts/Permits due at 05:30 PT.
20 Jan '15, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold (1289.6) is up the most (+0.7%) of the BEGOS Markets, as measured from the StateSide Sunday opening. Copper (2.5940) which had been the weakest during yesterday's holiday has been replaced by Oil (47.96, -1.9%). The Spoo (2024.00) would pull the S&P (2019.42) up to 2030 were it to open at this instant; however at Market Trends you can see the Spoo's Baby Blues are dropping, and even more so in real time this morning (down to the -58% level) as the 21-day linear regression trend gathers consistency to the downside. NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
19 Jan '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: Copper (2.5630) is -2.6% with a 106% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, as China's GDP expansion slows to near generation lows and margin curbs knock the Shanghai Index down better than 7%. The 2nd weakest BEGOS Market is the Swiss (1.1530), -1.0% with an 85% EDTR tracing. Oil (48.72) continues to firm in the upper 40s such that the daily Price Oscillator study appears a day or so away from confirming a shift to positive. StateSide open outcry exchanges and stock markets are closed for the MLK holiday so as to extend this BEGOS Markets session through Tuesday.
16 Jan '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1978.50) has achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1970.50, satisfying the desired goal of the daily Price Oscillator study; the result does not preclude the Spoo further falling, as its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in decline: only 12 trading days have passed since the Spoo's all-time high (2088.75 on 29 Dec) from which a 10% correction would yield 1879.75. Volume in Feb Oil (47.30) is moving into Mar (47.81). The Swiss (1.1508) not surprisingly is the session's most volatile BEGOS market thus far; (we're ignoring a MACD daily Buy signal). CPI @ 05:30PT.
15 Jan '15, 04:38 Pacific Time: Not a "typo": the Swiss (1.1421) has traced 3270% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), currently sporting a 16.2% gain as the SNB lifted the currency's "soft peg" to the Euro (1.1692). We'll elaborate in next Saturday's edition of The Gold Update. The decision is boosting both Gold (1251.8, +1.8%) and Silver (17.080, 1.5%). Overnight equity gains have been erased, the Spoo (2005.75) having traded as high as 2027.25; the daily Price Oscillator study is now at its lowest level since the 06 Jan signal for the ongoing Market Rhythm Target of 1970.50. Mind the Econ Baro as well.
14 Jan '15, 04:39 Pacific Time: Thus far, Copper (2.5140) has traded 343% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), is presently -3.5%, and has been as low as July 2009's low of 2.4235. 2nd in session volatility is Silver (16.710, -2.2%) with a 106% EDTR tracing. The only BEGOS Market in the black is the Bond (148^25). The Spoo (2008.00) would shift the S&P (2023.03) down to 2014 at the opening bell, but 1st come Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing at 05:30PT; our Market Rhythm Target remains at 1970.50; the live "Baby Blues" of the Spoo (see Market Trends) are down to the 0% axis; Gold's (1230.09) are climbing.
13 Jan '15, 04:45 Pacific Time: Copper (2.6470) is down the most, -2.8%, in BEGOS and has already traced 190% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Up the most, however, at +2.0% is Silver (16.935) with a 99% EDTR tracing thus far. Gold (1239.8) is testing the 1240-1280 support band as seen in The Gold Update's weekly bars chart. The daily Price Oscillator study on the Spoo (2033.00) is still negative, again the Market Rhythm Target there being 1970.50; that study is presently shown along with the Spoo's other key analytics via our menu item BEGOS Markets: S&P 500. Q4 Earnings Season has commenced.
12 Jan '15, 04:35 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2046.00) daily Price Oscillator study remains negative despite price presently being +0.5%; thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1970.50 is intact. The EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of the EuroCurrencies are double that of almost all the other BEGOS Market components so far, the Euro's (1.1804) being 97% and the Swiss' (0.9835) being 91%; the sole other market exceeding a 50% tracing is Gold (1220.8) at 67%. The Econ Data calendar is light for the week's first 2 days. This week also heralds the beginning of Q4 Earnings Season, which you can herein track.
09 Jan '15, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted ahead of the Dec payrolls data due at 05:30 PT. The Spoo's (2049.75) daily Price Oscillator study remains negative even given the S&P's (2062.14) two relief rally days; per our S&P 500 MoneyFlow link, you can see the flow is not keeping pace with the Index (oscillators at the foot of that page). At our Oil (48.57) page, Market Range (EDTR) has begun to back off and the Market Profile shows trading support finally having been built throughout most of the 48 handle. Both Oil and Copper (2.7495) are -0.7%; Gold (1212.3) leads to the upside at +0.3%.
08 Jan '15, 04:43 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.1768) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 102% leads in BEGOS Markets volatility. The balance of the other components is fairly subdued thus far; of note, Oil (48.74) is trading 1.91 (+4%) above yesterday's low. The Spoo (2039.00) is into its second day of what we see as a relief rally: the daily Price Oscillator study has confirmed going negative and has a Market Rhythm Target of 1970.50; as co-measure, we'll look at Market Trends for the Spoo's "Baby Blues" to fall, (you'll see they're currently quite neutral). Econ Data light ahead of Dec payrolls tomorrow.
07 Jan '15, 04:34 Pacific Time: As anticipated, our two Market Rhythm Targets for Silver (cur 16.320, tar 15.335) and Gold (cur 1212.8, tar 1164.1) were formally nixed at yesterday's close. Neither signal (Silver's daily MACD nor Gold's Daily Price Oscillator) substantially meet the qualifying criteria to warrant reversing to higher targets, for as you can see at our Market Rhythms page, both signals have been dropped from the list until they return to qualifying status. The EuroCurrencies are the session's most volatile BEGOS Market components, every one of which is down, save for the Spoo (2006.25, +0.6%).
06 Jan '15, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.255) Market Rhythm Target of 15.335 provisionally would be nixed at session's end as the daily MACD has pushed into positive territory; specific to this study, the signal in that case would not qualify for being reversed to Long. Gold's (1210.5) target of 1164.1 is still barely valid, but is also subject to being nixed at day's end should price push much higher. Your monitoring our Market Rhythms page shall keep you abreast of which technical signals are working best. Session volatility is moderate to this point, with Oil (49.27) being the weakest BEGOS Market at -1.4%.
05 Jan '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: Eurocurrencies' weakness is garnering the FinMedia attention, yet the BEGOS Metals Markets are the more volatile thus far: Copper (2.7680) has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), and 2nd only to Oil (51.16, -3.1%), is down the most at -1.6%. Presently, the positive components are Gold (1189.5), Silver (15.920) and the Bond (145^26). But, Silver's negative daily MACD continues to maintain a Market Rhythm Target of 15.335, and Gold's negative daily Price Oscillator still targets 1164.1. Friday's S&P (2058.20) failure looks by the Spoo (2041.75) to carry over into today.
02 Jan '15, 04:32 Pacific Time: We commence 2015 by again reversing our Market Rhythm Target for Gold (1182.7) from 1227.9 back to 1164.1 due to the 8-hr. version of the Price Oscillator study turning back to negative as has been the stance of the daily version since its confirmation at the close back on 22 Dec. Silver's (15.755) target of 15.335 is still in play. The Swiss (1.0034) achieved its target during the New Year's Eve session. The Spoo (2059.50) would pull the S&P (2058.90) higher to 2065 were the markets to open at this instant. Data on the ISM Index and Construction Spending both due at 10:00PT.
31 Dec '14, 04:26 Pacific Time: Gold's (1199.4) Market Rhythm Target has been reversed from 1161.1 to 1227.9 upon the the 8-hr. Price Oscillator study having turned positive; Silver's (16.060) daily MACD remains negative, however a confirmed flip to positive would nix the 15.335 target, (likely without a reversing signal). The Swiss' (1.0122) target of 1.0079 remains intact. Various bourses 'round the globe are closed or on early closure; 'tis a full session stateside for all of the BEGOS Markets with a regular 15:00PT opening tomorrow (New Year's Day). Chicago PMI due at 06:45PT. Happy New Year Everyone!
30 Dec '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is, at best, moderate thus far across the BEGOS Markets spectrum, Copper (2.8415) again being the rangiest in tracing its EDTR (see Market Ranges) by 75%; the Bond (144^08) is the least volatile with an EDTR tracing of just 34%. ShortSide Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for Silver (15.850, tar 15.335),the Swiss (1.0117, tar 1.0079) and Gold (1184.9, tar 1164.1). Under the BEGOS Markets menu, the S&P 500 page shows the Spoo's (2080.00) value line 100 points lower than price and the Market Magnet 62 points lower. Consumer Confidence at 07:00PT.
29 Dec '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Copper (2.8135) is far and away the most volatile BEGOS Market of the session with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 184% that occurred between 16:45PT - 17:30PT, the trade purportedly in reaction to the decline in industrial profits in China, (see also the current edition of The Gold Update). 2nd most volatile is the Euro (1.2208), its EDTR tracing being 57%, (Greece's Parliament again failed today to elect a new President). Oil (55.42) is presently the strongest component (+0.5%) and Gold (1192.5) the weakest (-0.3%). Open Market Rhythm Targets (see 24 Dec) still in tact.
26 Dec '14, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Precious Metals are the BEGOS components most in play this Boxing Day: Silver (16.240) is +3.0% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 104%, whilst Gold (1198.7) is +2.0% with an 109% EDTR tracing. Still, the technical studies supporting the 3 open Market Rhythm Targets (see prior comment) are maintaining a negative stance. The balance of the other BEGOS Markets have EDTR tracings of less than 50% thus far. At our Market Trends page, Oil's (56.20) price is consolidating, its "Baby Blues" only barely beginning to come up from the floor. No Econ Data scheduled.
24 Dec '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for the following 3 BEGOS components per their trading signals cited in our most recent comments: Silver (15.830, tar 15.335), Gold (1177.4, tar 1164.1), and the Swiss (1.0161, tar 1.0079). In the menu at left under "The S&P 500", its "MoneyFlow" page belies the Index's record closing level (2082.17), especially on the one-month and one-quarter graphics. Oil (55.72) is off the most in BEGOS at -2.0% with 46% of the EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced thus far; Crude Inventories are due at 07:30 PT. A most Merry Christmas to everyone!
23 Dec '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0172) opened the week with a confirmed negative crossing on its MACD daily study: our Market Rhythm Target is 1.0079. Silver's (15.700) Market Rhythm Target per its MACD daily study (see 19 Dec comment) remains 15.335. Gold's (1177.8) daily Price Oscillator confirmed turning negative at yesterday's close: the Market Rhythm Target is 1164.1, thus casting some doubt for a close above 1205 next week to settling out 2014 as an up year. Our Economic Barometer gets a does of no less than 8 inputs this morning; the Econ Baro will be updated just after 07:00 PT.
22 Dec '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update underscores the importance of Gold (1196.8) not succumbing to its current trading support area, which you can see per our Market Profiles page is right in this upper 1190s zone; for to close with an up year in just over a week's time, price must then settle at 1205+. Barring a strong rally for Silver (16.090), failing to settle 2014 above 19.43 will result in a down year. Oil (56.95) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of only 55% is the most volatile BEGOS Market thus far in the session. Silver's EDTR tracing is the narrowest at 36%.
19 Dec '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper (2.8980) is the one BEGOS Market quite on the move thus far: 'tis +1.8%, having traced 101% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the Spoo (2065.50) runs a distant 2nd, +0.3% with a 52% EDTR tracing. The balance of the BEGOS components are all lower. Per two comments ago, Silver's (15.885) daily MACD did confirm a negative cross: our Market Rhythm target is 15.335. Gold's (1196.7) positive daily Price Oscillator run is weakening; price has risen in 5 of the last 7 weeks. Nothing is scheduled for the Econ Baro today as we head into a likely quieter Christmas Week.
18 Dec '14, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil's (Jan-57.52, Feb-57.81) volume is moving into the Feb contact; (Jan 1st notice is Tue, 23 Dec). The Fed/Yellen were the "catalyst" to move various of the BEGOS Markets back toward their Market Magnets (see yesterday's comment's final phrase). Volatility thus far is higher than at this time yesterday, the Swiss (1.0230) leading the pack with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 137% as the SNB returns to negative deposit rates. Copper (2.8720) has the least volatile EDTR tracing, 64%. The Spoo (2030.25) would presently launch the S&P (2012.89) to 2037 at the bell.
17 Dec '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver (15.880) reached its 6-hr. Price Oscillator study's Market Rhythm Target of 15.805 fairly swiftly yesterday. Now, the white metal's daily MACD study is poised to confirm a negative crossing at today's close, barring a stronger recovery for the session. Volatility across the BEGOS Markets is more settled to this point of the day with the FOMC rate statement/press conference in the balance (11:00PT/11:30PT); a glance at our Market Magnets pages shows a number of BEGOS components fairly far from their magnets such that some regressing to their means can be expected.
16 Dec '14, 06:52 Pacific Time: An Internet outage has us chiming in later than usual. The Spoo (1979.75) has already reached down to its Market Rhythm Target (see yesterday's comment) of 1964.50, and for the second day in a row, the Spoo is the most volatile of the BEGOS Markets at this writing, with a 151% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Copper (2.8575) is the least volatile with a 71% EDTR tracing thus far. Silver's (16.255) 6-hr. Price Oscillator study confirmed as negative late yesterday, the Market Rhythm Target being 15.805. The Econ Baro will be updated shortly for Housing.
15 Dec '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2004.50) is the most volatile of the BEGOS Markets thus far, having traced 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the Spoo's presently being +14 points would pull the S&P (2002.33) higher by +9 were it to open at this writing; but: the Spoo's daily Price Oscillator study confirmed closing negative on Friday and we've thus a Market Rhythm Target of 1964.5. Oil (58.16) is 2nd most volatile with an EDTR tracing of 92%, with price up the most (1.2%) in BEGOS. The current edition of The Gold Update underscores the yellow metal's and Bond's (144^28) recent strength.
12 Dec '14, 01:47 Pacific Time: Recovering from 17-hour power outage here in San Francisco. Site is up-to-date, (the "though" date on many of the web pages reads 12 Dec rather than the proper 11 Dec).
11 Dec '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are leading the BEGOS Markets in volatility thus far as QE expectations intensify following a rather subdued round of ECB long-term, low-interest loans to banks. Our least volatile component is Oil (61.42) having traced just 25% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo's (2030.00) "front month" shifts to the March Contract upon the CME pit opening later this morning, "fair value" becoming -7.47. Note at our Market Magnets page the relative height of the Precious Metals, suggestive of some hesitancy for price. Retail Sales and Ex/Im data due at 05:30 PT.
10 Dec '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Both Gold (1226.6) and Silver (17.015) hit their Market Rhythm Targets yesterday. The Bond (143^06) target of 138^17 was nixed as expected. The Spoo (2057.00) is triggering various technical negatives including a downside crossing of its daily MACD, a declining daily Price Oscillator which appears about a week away from turning negative, and a drop in its "Baby Blues" (Market Trends), indicative that the uptrend's consistency is breaking apart. BEGOS Markets to this point are only mildly volatile with Gold having traced 53% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) and Oil (62.60) -1.0%.
09 Dec '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.550) daily Price Oscillator study has -- for the present --- turned whippy, confirming closing negative yesterday, but now provisionally positive; we'll maintain the upside Market Rhythm Target of 17.155 as 'tis supported by the daily MoneyFlow study (see 04 Dec); the 4-hr. MACD has also turned positive overnight. The Bond's (142^26) 12-hour Price Oscillator looks to confirm as positive at 12:00 PT: this would nix our 138^17 Market Rhythm Target, but not qualify for a Long signal. The Spoo (2049.75) again looks to lower the S&P (2060.31), by -10, were the opening now.
08 Dec '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: Oil (64.30) is off the most (-2.0%) amongst the BEGOS Markets to kick off the new week; given how rangy Oil has been of late, only 54% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) has been traced thus far, despite the session's move lower. 6 of the 8 BEGOS components are down, the exceptions being the 2 Precious Metals, both mildly higher. Open Market Rhythm targets remain as follows: Gold (1196.2, tar 1224.6), Silver (16.320, tar 17.155) and the Bond (141^14, tar 138^17). The Spoo (2069.00) would presently pull the S&P (2075.37) -6 points at its open. No Econ Baro data due.
05 Dec '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: Following Silver's (16.395) triggering a Long signal per its daily MoneyFlow study (see prior comment), yesterday's settle in turn also confirmed a Long signal upon the daily Price Oscillator study closing positive; the Market Rhythm Target of 17.155 is similar to that mentioned prior. Other targets remain intact for Gold (1200.3, tar 1224.6) and the Bond (141^26, tar 138^17). The Spoo (2073.75) remains better than 100 points above its valuation line (see Market Values). Volatility is mild in the BEGOS Markets ahead of jobs data and the trade deficit due at 05:30 PT.
04 Dec '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.395) daily MoneyFlow study confirmed a Long signal at yesterday's close: this is not a study for the feint of heart, but is presently listed on our Market Rhythms page, and with an "optimal contract profit" of $4,200/cac, the Market Rhythm Target (from this session's opening price of 16.425) is 17.265. The BEGOS Markets, with the exception of Copper (2.8965), are fairly subdued given recent robust volatility: Copper's EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracing is 63%, but the balance of the Markets is sub-50% across the board. ECB announces at 04:45 PT, speech at 05:30 PT.
03 Dec '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are leading the BEGOS Markets volatility to this point, the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) respectively tracing 68% for the Euro (1.2326) and 60% for the Swiss (102.44). Oil (67.03) is down the most (-0.9%). The Bond (140^28) confirmed a negative stance on the 12-hr. Price Oscillator, suggesting a Market Rhythm Target of 138^17, and at our Market Magnets page, the Bond appears poised to pass below its Magnet. Incoming Econ Data today includes ADP Jobs, Q3 revisions to Productivity & Labor Costs, ISM Services and the Fed's Tan Tome due out at 11:00 PT.
02 Dec '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Gold (1194.8) has provisionally flipped its Weekly parabolic trend to Long; confirmation is expected at this Friday's close; Gold's daily Price Oscillator study confirmed turning positive at yesterday's close: the Market Rhythm Target is 1224.6. Silver (16.160) achieved its Market Rhythm Target yesterday of 16.775 via the 17 Nov positive daily MACD signal. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently in the red, save for slight increases in the Bond (141^28) and Spoo (2055.50); no one market is excessively volatile to this point: Gold's EDTR (Market Ranges) leading tracing is 77% thus far.
01 Dec '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold (1170.0) sold off following its Swiss rejection and then, not unexpectedly, rose to presently sit higher than Friday's settle. The EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are expansive for the Precious Metals, Silver's (15.580) being 450%, its low-to-high swing for the session already having covered $11,075/cac; the positive daily MACD study still has a Market Rhythm Target of 16.775, barring that study confirming a negative close. The Bond (142^30) is the least volatile BEGOS Market thus far (30% EDTR tracing). The ISM Index (07:00 PT) kicks off a heavy econ data week.
28 Nov '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Friday session continues, and save for the Bond (142^16), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are all in the red, most notably Oil (69.18, -5.9%) with an 283% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold's (1182.5, -1.3%) potentially triggering a daily Price Oscillator Long signal by Sunday's opening is presently off the table; we'll of course update the status of Gold's weekly parabolic trend in tomorrow's Gold Update. Silver (16.070, -2.8%) still is maintaining a positive stance in its daily MACD study, the Market Rhythm target being 16.775. Early closes today for all BEGOS products.
27 Nov '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: The pits may be closed for the StateSide holiday but our BEGOS Markets are on the move in what already is GLOBEX's Friday session. By EDTRs (see Market Ranges), Silver's (16.415) tracing is 96% and price -0.8%. Oil (72.16) is the largest loser -1.8%. The Bond (Dec 143^23, Mar 142^09) is at its highest level in better than a month (21 Oct). Gold (1195.6) may confirm a Long signal per its daily Price Oscillator by Sunday's opening, albeit price needs to hold these levels through tomorrow. The S&P (2072.83) remains terrifically high given our p/e at 29.2x (see Valuation & Rankings).
26 Nov '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Oil's (73.88) Market Rhythm Target of 78.23 was nixed yesterday as OPEC did now vow to cut output; the 6-hr. Price Oscillator study turned negative but now does not merit our Market Rhythm qualifications for a Short signal. Silver's (Mar 16.620) target of 16.775 remains intact; moreover, the daily Price Oscillator studies on both Silver and Gold (Feb 1198.1) appear within a session or two of turning positive; their past signaling results are currently on our Market Rhythms page. Given the StateSide holiday tomorrow, the balance of the week's econ data has been moved into today.
25 Nov '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: Silver (16.610) is closing in on our Market Rhythm target of 16.725. Be wary that 1st notice for Dec Silver is Friday, as 'tis for Gold (1199.00), Copper (3.0050) and the Bond (142^11). As noted yesterday, Silver's March equivalent target is 16.775. Oil's (76.19) 6-hr. Price Oscillator reading remains positive and thus the target there is still 78.23. BEGOS Markets Volatility is seasonally narrowing to more normal levels as you can see at our Market Ranges page. Only the EuroCurrencies are weaker this morning and just barely so. Second look at Q3 GDP due at 05:30 PT.
24 Nov '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: We've now two open Market Rhythm-signaled targets: 1) is Silver (16.305) targeting 16.725 (or 16.775 if on the March Contract) per the positive daily MACD; and 2) is Oil (76.17) targeting 78.23 per the positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator. The BEGOS Markets are hardly volatile in starting off this Stateside-abbreviated trading week: the Bond (141^25) has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) thus far at just 50%; the Precious Metals and Oil are the weakest to this point. A click on Earnings Season shows that for Q3 as now completed: 57% of bottom lines improved year-over-year.
21 Nov '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: China's rate cut and the Draghi's readiness to induce further EuroZone stimulus have the BEGOS Markets in volatility mode: both EuroCurrencies are lower by almost a full percent and have already traced at least 149% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges). The least volatile of the BEGOS bunch is the Bond (141^16) which is presently "unch" with a 52% EDTR tracing. Oil (77.64) is up the most at +1.7%, followed by Copper (3.0580, +1.4%) and the Spoo (2065.50, +0.7%). Oil's daily Price Oscillator may soon flip to positive, which per our Market Rhythms page would be a $2,000/cac play.
20 Nov '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: The Bond (141^23) is the BEGOS Markets' EDTR (see Market Ranges) leader thus far with a 91% tracing; (The narrowest is Oil [74.79] at just 36%). Gold (1191.9) is the strongest component +0.8%, mirrored by the weakest, Copper (3.0090) -0.8%. The Spoo (2037.75) is poised to pull the S&P (2048.72) lower, given weakening econ data from both Asia and Europe. Silver's (16.185) Market Rhythm target of 16.725 is still being maintained per the positive daily MACD. StateSide econ data completes its week today and includes the CPI, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Index & LEI.
19 Nov '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: BEGOS Market volatility is somewhat subdued with the FOMC's Oct meeting minutes due (11:00 PT). Silver's (16.195) daily MACD continues its positive positioning, the Market Rhythm target 16.725 as noted; at our Silver page, although price appears momentarily high vs. its Market Magnet, the "Baby Blues" are in ascent with key trading support per the Market Profile at 15.650. At our Market Trends page, despite Copper's (3.0130) recent price whips, the "Baby Blues" there are breaking lower; Copper's dominant Market Profile support is 3.0000; Houses data at 05:30 PT.
18 Nov '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: We've lifted the Copper (3.0030) 4-hr. MoneyFlow Short signal as price's whip re-signaled it to Long; the inconsistency of this specific metric has dropped it from the qualifying Market Rhythm criteria to justify a trade. Gold (1198.6) has regained the 1200s this session for the first time since 31 Oct; the precious metals and EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS upside leaders thus far. Oil's (75.67) Dec contract volume is moving into Jan with immaterial contango (+5¢). Silver (16.225) is lagging Gold's move, but the white metal's daily MACD signal remains Long for 16.725. PPI is due at 05:30 PT.
17 Nov '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: The Copper (3.0310) Short signal remains intact at 2.9535 per the 4-hr. MoneyFlow having pierced .25 last Thursday evening, (the stop being a confirmed .75-or higher reading). Only 2 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently higher: the Bond (142^02) and Gold (1188.4) in part on GDP shrinkage in Japan. Silver (16.135) confirmed via its daily MACD a Long signal at the session's open (16.305) targeting 16.725. The EuroCurrencies are the most volatile BEGOS components to this point, with their EDTR (Market Ranges) tracings exceeding 90%. The NY Empire Index is due out at 05:30 PT.
14 Nov '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: Last evening, the 4-hr. MoneyFlow study on Copper (3.0005) confirmed a reversal to Short, revising the Market Rhythm target from 3.0880 to 2.9535, albeit the red metal presently has the best gain (+0.4) of the BEGOS Markets. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Silver (15.350) is -1.9% and is BEGOS' most volatile market thus far, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 90%. At Market Trends, that for every BEGOS Market is now down, the sole exception being the Spoo (2034.00), itself appearing to be topping out. Retail Sales begin the data parade at 05:30 PT.
13 Nov '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper's (3.0425) 4-hr. MoneyFlow continues to maintain our Market Rhythm target of 3.0880; this shall remain the case barring the study first confirming a 4-hr. close below the .25 reading, ('tis presently .50); Copper is also up the most (+0.6%) of the BEGOS Markets and has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far at 82%. Despite the daily FinMedia negativity over Gold (1161.9), a glance at our Market Trends page shows price as having firmed for the last 4 days, with follow-through into today; Gold's EDTR of 22 points/day is the highest reading since this past January.
12 Nov '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: This morning's volatility bias is toward the Bond (141^12) and EuroCurrencies, the balance of the BEGOS Markets sporting EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of less than 50%, with the exception of Copper (3.0380) having traced 54% of its EDTR to this point; Copper's 4-hr. MoneyFlow study is still in play for a Market Rhythm target of 3.0880. At our Market Trends page, save for the Spoo (2029.75) which is going straight up, Copper's trend and "Baby Blues" are the most buoyant of the bunch. Econ data resumes coming into our Economic Barometer following a two-day lull.
11 Nov '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Just after the session' open, the 4-hr. MACD for Oil (77.11) flipped to negative; that nixed the 80.05 upside Market Rhythm target and replaced it with 76.51, which was reached overnight. Copper's (2.9995) 4-hr. MoneyFlow is still seeking 3.0880,although the red metal is the weakest (-0.6%) thus far of the BEGOS Markets, which in turn are mixed, with both Gold (1154.3) and the Spoo (2037.50) up the most (+0.2%), the latter's upside appearing unsustainable, (see our Market Trends page). Incoming economic data is quiet. Best to all our Veterans past, present and future.
10 Nov '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: Oil (79.53) is beginning the week as BEGOS' volatility leader, 70% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced to this point of the session; Oil's 4-hr. MACD is still positive and thus the Market Rhythm target price of 80.05 remains intact; again at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" appear to be firming in coming off the floor. Copper (3.0285), as suggested, had its 4-hr MoneyFlow study exceed .75, the target there now 3.0880. The Bond's (142^02) daily Price Oscillator study has provisionally turned positive, (i.e. not yet confirmed). Q3 Earnings Season now sub-60% improvement.
07 Nov '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Copper's (3.0165) open Market Rhythm target of 2.9455 (see two comments prior) may get nullified and even reversed to an upside target as soon as this session, should the 4-hr. MoneyFlow confirm a period's close above .75, ('tis currently .71). Oil's (78.37) Market Rhythm target of 80.05 is in tact given the still positive 4-hr. MACD study. The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of the jobs data due at 05:30 PT, the Precious Metals components so far the most volatile and the Bond (140^17) & Spoo (2028.50) the least volatile. Tomorrow brings our Fifth Anniversary Gold Update!
06 Nov '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: On the heels of the BOE not changing rates and ahead of the ECB's announcement, the EuroCurrencies are leading the BEGOS Markets in volatility with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings either side of 60% thus far. The markets are bordered by Gold (1144.7, +0.4%) and Oil (78.50, -0.5%), albeit the latter yesterday confirmed a positive crossing on its 4-hr. MACD, our Market Rhythms target being 80.05; again to that end, mind both that study as well as Oil's "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page. For Q3, weaker Productivity and higher Unit Labor Costs data are due at 05:30 PT.
05 Nov '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Silver (15.185) is presently -5.2% with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 226% in the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold (1139.9), -2.4% with an EDTR tracing of 203%. The most benign component of the group is the Bond (141^02), -0.2% with a 41% EDTR tracing. The only BEGOS Market in the black in the Spoo (2015.75), +0.5, EDTR tracing 43%. Yesterday, Copper (2.9795) confirmed a negative 4-hr. MoneyFlow signal such as to target 2.9455; the 12-hr. version of the same study may also confirm negative today/tomorrow. ADP jobs data due at 05:15 PT.
04 Nov '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Yesterday's comment noted that Oil's (76.52) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) were on the rise, our earliest suggestion of trend change; yet price is -2.1% this morning with 119% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) already traced, the most of the BEGOS Markets. (The Spoo [2008.75] is the least volatile with an EDTR tracing of just 29%). Oil's daily MACD is presently crossing to negative, however should that signal confirm by day's end, we wouldn't chase it lower. At our Market Magnets page, Gold (1169.1) is well below its Magnet. Negative Factory Orders are expected at 07:00 PT.
03 Nov '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold (1172.3) is trading better than 10 points above its session low (1161.0), the title of the current edition of The Gold Update being “Gold Is Now WAY Oversold”. The 3 BEGOS Metals are the volatility leaders thus far, the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being 96% for Copper (3.0630), with Silver (16.090) a close 2nd with a 95% tracing. At our Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" for Oil (80.88) are coming off the floor, which suggests the selling since mid-year is done such that we'll see higher prices in the ensuing weeks. ISM and Construction data due at 07:00 PT.
31 Oct '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: The BOJ's surprise stimulus move (60% increase in bond buying, tripling of ETF & REIT buying, doubling of domestic stock buying) has Gold (1173.9) -2.1% with 256% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) traced. This is to the benefit of the Spoo (2009.00), which is +1.1% and has achieved our Market Rhythm target of 2002. Oil's (80.47) Market Rhythm target of 79.45 remains open per the 2-hr. MoneyFlow signal (see 28 Oct). Incoming Econ Data is plentiful today with Personal Inc/Spd, PCE Inflation and the ECI due at 05:30 PT, and then Chi PMI (06:45 PT) and UofM Sentiment (06:55 PT).
30 Oct '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: QE having drawn to close, Q3's initial GDP report is due at 05:30PT. Silver's (16.795) 6-hr. MACD signal reversed to negative at 18:00 PT, in turn reversing our Market Rhythm target to 17.02, which was achieved overnight. Gold (1204.0) similarly met its 1216.1 Market Rhythm target. Oil's (81.48) 2-hr. MoneyFlow study is till targeting 79.45 and the Spoo's (1962.25) daily Price Oscillator study remains positive with 2002.00 as its target. Except for the Bond (141^23) the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently all in the red with the precious metals leading on the downside.
29 Oct '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: Today we look for the FOMC to formally nix further QE for the present whilst not tampering with rates. Ahead of that 11:00 PT announcement, the BEGOS Markets are very subdued, 6 of the 8 with EDTR tracings (Market Ranges) of less than 30%. We've two additional open Market Rhythm targets that being for Silver (17.185, tar 17.440) based on a positive 6-hr. MACD crossing and the Spoo (1976.00, tar 2002.00) per its positive daily Price Oscillator crossing. The other open Market Rhythm Targets are still in place for Gold (1227.1, tar 1216.1) and Oil (82.26, tar 79.45).
28 Oct '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold (1227.6) is leading the BEGOS Markets in volatility, 76% of the yellow metal's EDTR (see our Market Ranges page) traced to this point of the session; note a topping of volatility readings at that page). Gold's 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative with a Market Rhythm target of 1216.1, (the daily version is still positive). Copper yesterday achieved its Market Rhythm target of 3.0650. Oil (81.51) is working a negative signal from its 2-hr. MoneyFlow suggestive of a retest of yesterday's low (actual Market Rhythm target 79.45). Durables due at 05:30 PT; Confidence at 07:00 PT.
27 Oct '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: No one BEGOS Market thus far has traced greater than 42% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) thus far, the Euro (1.2673) being the rangiest. Neither is there strength in any of these markets, albeit the weakest is Oil (80.44) which is -1.0%. For both Gold (1230.4) and Copper (3.0520), their aforementioned Market Rhythm targets remain open respectively at 1216.1 and 3.0650. As detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update, this short-term weakness is within the broader positive daily Price Oscillator and nearing expectation for the weekly parabolic trend soon turning Long.
24 Oct '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: To this point of the session, volatility is very subdued relative to the marked seasonal increases in the EDTRs (see our Market Ranges page). The Spoo (1939.50) has traced the most of the EDTRs at just 41%, and is pointing toward a lower S&P (1950.82) opening. Lower, too, is Oil (81.38), whilst the balance is positive for the 6 other BEGOS Markets. We've two "open" Market Rhythm targets: Gold (1232.5) targeting 1216.1 per its negative 6-hr. price oscillator, and Copper (3.0480) targeting 3.0650 per its positive 4-hr. EMA crossing. New Home Sales are due at 07:00 PT.
23 Oct '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: Volatility is normal and fairly evenly spread across the BEGOS Markets spectrum so far. Up the most is Copper (3.0365, +0.8%) and down the most is Silver (17.065, -0.6%). Gold's (1236.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are at the highest levels since their June-July upswing, yet a glance at our Market Ranges page shows Gold as well as Silver to be comparatively lacking in this robust seasonal volatility of the other BEGOS components. Per our Earnings Season link, note that Q3 results are boasting 67% year-over-year improvement, which is quite good thus far. LEI at 07:00 PT.
22 Oct '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Copper (3.0380) has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at just 57%, reflective of how more muted the BEGOS Markets are to this point of the session. Per our Market Rhythm's page, presently we've Copper's best trading timeframe on its 4-hr. measures of both MoneyFlow and EMA crossovers. Meanwhile at Market Magnets, the Spoo (1934.25) appears grossly overbought by that measure. At our S&P (1941.28) Valuation & Rankings page, the "live" p/e of 36.2x remains expensive given the Index's -7% correction, (or -10% using intra-day data). CPI at 05:30 PT.
21 Oct '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm target for Gold (1249.7, tar 1251.1) was reached earlier in the session, but as noted below, that does not preclude a run back above 1300. The BEGOS Markets appear fairly normal in terms of volatility, with both Copper (3.009, +0.8%) and the Spoo (1913.50, +0.7%) as the upside leaders; 1913 may be viewed as a key price for the Spoo as 'twould put the S&P exactly on a 50% retracement back up within its current downtrend from the Index's high of 2019 to its low of 1820, (fair value being -6.76). Oil's (82.12) "Baby Blues" still falling at Market Trends.
20 Oct '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold's (1244.1) daily Price Oscillator confirmed a shift to positive at Friday's close; from this session's open (1239.1) our Market Rhythm target during the positive stance of the oscillator is 1251.1, which may appear modest given the median follow-through of the last 9 shifts to be 65 points, thereby "suggestive" of a move to 1304.1 as detailed and charted in the current edition of The Gold Update. Copper (2.9765) is the session's most volatile BEGOS Market and Oil (82.21) the least so. Incoming Econ Data is lighter this week, however Q3 Earnings Season, per our link, will be busy.
17 Oct '14, 04:44 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting more normalized levels of volatility thus far, the Spoo (1877.50) and Oil (83.97) getting the bid at the expense of the Bond (143^02). The latter may confirm a negative crossing on its 8-hr. MACD at 08:00 PT: in 7 of the last 10 crossings, price has followed-through by at least one full point ($1,000/cac). Oil's contract volume is moving into Dec today, (1st notice for Nov is 22 Oct). Gold (1236.8) is fairly firm (-0.2%) and may confirm the daily Price Oscillator as positive at session's end. Housing Starts are due at 05:30 PT and UofM Sentiment at 07:00.
16 Oct '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Gold (1243.9) is now provisionally posting a positive stance in its daily Price Oscillator study; 'tis not a confirmation of such until it remains positive at close; per our Market Rhythm's page you can see that this study has had follow-through of at least $1,200/cac after confirmation in all 9 prior cases tested, (see also the chart at the foot of the BEGOS Markets page for Gold). The Bond (145^12) is in territory rarely seen over the last 10 years, the yield now just 2.876%. The Spoo (1827.00) is sufficiently fast that 'tis difficult to pinpoint how low the S&P (1862.49) will open.
15 Oct '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: Oil's (80.58) downtrend consistency remains in force, price presently -2.1% for the session and the 2nd most volatile via our EDTR (see Market Ranges) for the BEGOS markets, with a tracing of 82%. Silver (17.150) is the most volatile with a 92% tracing. 7 of the 8 BEGOS components are down, the exception being the Bond (143^07) which is +0.3%. The daily Price Oscillator studies on Gold (1226.9), the Euro (1.2654) and the Swiss (1.4080) still have not turned positive, but are near to so doing. Incoming data for the Econ Baro begins in earnest today through week's end.
14 Oct '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Bond (142^27) has not traded this high -- nor its yield (3.014%) this low -- since May 2013; for the session thus far, the Bond is also the volatility leader in BEGOS, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being 104%. Silver (17.490) is the least volatile with just a 20% tracing. A glance at our Market Trends page tells the story: Oil (84.75) and the Spoo (1870.25) are clearly in consistent decline as the other 6 BEGOS components get the bid. We remain in wait for the daily Price Oscillator studies to flip positive for Gold (1235.4), the Euro (1.2664) and the Swiss (1.0486).
13 Oct '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold (1228.0) is the most volatile BEGOS Market thus far with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 90%. A highlight in the current edition of The Gold Update is the rising of the "Baby Blues (see Market Trends) for both Gold and Silver (17.450). The daily Price Oscillator of each of Gold, the Euro (1.2696) and the Swiss (1.0507) have yet to confirm turning positive, however Gold's 4-hr. MACD study is pointing to a Market Rhythm target of 1240.6, (although that signal presently appears fragile). This is a heavy week of incoming Econ Data, but there's nothing substantive until Wed.
10 Oct '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Studies we're watching for pending LongSide Market Rhythm signals are the daily Price Oscillators on each of Gold (1223.4), the Euro (1.2665) and the Swiss (1.0472); none of these three are presently pointing to a confirmation at today's close, but as noted yesterday specific to Gold, all 3 appear within a few days reach, barring their prices resuming their downtrends; again keep an eye on them via our Market Trends link. Thus far, Copper (3.0020) is BEGOS' volatility leader at an 84% EDTR tracing (Market Ranges), with Silver's (17.310) the most docile at 42%. Ex/Im pricing at 05:30 PT.
09 Oct '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold (1229.9) is nearing another LongSide signal, this time via its daily Price Oscillator study, (the daily MACD having just netted the aforementioned $1,000/cac gain); the new signal may confirm as early as at settle today or tomorrow. Gold, +0.7%, has traced 74% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) thus far, the rangiest BEGOS component being the Swiss' (1.0548) 82% tracing. With the exception of Oil (87.25) and the Spoo (1960.00), all the BEGOS Markets are presently higher. Again as noted yesterday, go to our Market Trends link, with the "Baby Blues" for the metals on the rise.
08 Oct '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Both Oil (87.99) and Gold (1217.0) have achieved their Market Rhythm Targets for gains of $1,100/cac and $1,000/cac respectively. The best Market Rhythm signals to monitor are those as updated daily at our menu link. Ahead of the FOMC Minutes (11:00 PT), the BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility normal. Silver (17.340) is presently the strongest of the bunch +0.9% and Oil the weakest -0.5%. Gold leads the volatility with 75% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced and the Spoo (1933.00) has traced the least at 34%. Note the metals' "Baby Blues" turning up at Market Trends.
07 Oct '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: The daily MACD study for Gold (1206.9) chopped back to the LongSide as confirmed at yesterday's close, changing the Market Rhythm target to 1217.8; for Oil (90.23) the ShortSide signal of its daily MACD maintains that Market Rhythm target of 88.67. The EuroCurrencies are leading the BEGOS Markets' volatility and are lower given continued weakness in Germany's economic data. Presently, every BEGOS Market is down vis-à-vis yesterday's GLOBEX settle with the exception of the Bond (139^17), up just 1 pip. Q3 Earnings Season has begun and can be tracked via our menu link.
06 Oct '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: Both Gold (1194.8) and Oil (90.29) confirmed negative crossings on their daily MACD studies at Friday's close. Their respective Market Rhythm targets are 1182.0 and 88.67, barring these signals confirming reverses to positive. Presently, all 8 BEGO Markets components are up, the most volatile thus far being Gold and Copper (3.0270) each with 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) already traced, the Bond (139^11) being the narrowest mover with an EDTR tracing of just 33%. The Spoo (1967.75) is again up within its "textbook" oversold condition as are the EuroCurrencies.
03 Oct '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold (1207.9) is again close to tapping the year's low at 1202.5, albeit the daily MACD remains mildly positive and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their mild ascent. Oil's (90.64) daily MACD is poised to confirm a shift to negative at today's close; should that occur, the Market Rhythm target would be $1,100/cac lower (1.10 points) as measured from Sunday evening's opening. The Spoo (1948.25) is "textbook" near-term oversold and is the only BEGOS Market of the 8 that is presently higher. EDTR (Market Ranges) tracings are moderate ahead of the jobs report.
02 Oct '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1941.50) achieved its Market Rhythm target of 1935.00, for a gain (as measured from the opening on 26 Sep upon the daily Price Oscillator's having confirmed as negative) of $1,300/cac. Gold (1211.8) confirmed a positive cross on its daily MACD at yesterday's settle: the Market Rhythm target is 1224.4, (which was practically reached overnight); the target remains in place until achieved or the MACD confirms going negative. Oil (88.80) is -2.1% and is the most volatile BEGOS Market so far with a 139% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
01 Oct '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: After recording its rangiest trading day in better than a year, Oil (91.67) is the least volatile in BEGOS thus far, trading just 26% of the EDTR (see Market Ranges). Copper is the most volatile at a 102% EDTR tracing and is +1.2%. The weakest markets are the EuroCurrencies. The Spoo (1963.25) continues to see its daily Price Oscillator weaken, our Market Rhythm target for 1935.00 remaining intact. Gold (1210.0) is near its session high, the year's low of 1202.5 yet to be tested. At Market Trends, mind the "Baby Blues" on the Bond (138^07) as the linreg trend is poised to go positive.
30 Sep '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is running quite a bit above normal so far amongst the BEGOS Markets, with the EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals sporting EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings well in excess of 100%. Both the Euro (1.2583) and Swiss (1.0432) are -0.9% with EDTR tracings respectively of 164% and 149%. Silver (17.165) is off the most in BEGOS at -1.7% and trading at a 4 1/2-year low, whilst Gold (1207.0) has all but made a fresh low for the year. The Spoo (1976.00) is +0.3%, however its daily Price Oscillator study is lower. 07:00 PT brings us the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence.
29 Sep '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1964.00) presently suggests a -12 opening for the S&P (1982.85) which would erode the majority of Friday's gains; also, the Spoo is the most volatile thus far of the BEGOS bunch, having traced 83% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the daily Price Oscillator has furthered its negativity and thus the Market Rhythm target of 1935.00 remains firm. The Dollar (85.730), whose spoiler role is highlighted in the current edition of The Gold Update, is down as the EuroCurrencies gain ground. The metals are up as is the Bond (138^04). Data pending on Personal Inc/Spd at 05:30 PT.
26 Sep '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator study on the Spoo (1963.50) confirmed turning negative yesterday after having been positive for better than a month: our Market Rhythm target during this negative condition is 1935.00. Contrarily, the 6-hr. MoneyFlow study on the Bond (137^31) confirmed a LongSide move at 00:00 PT, however this signal falls just short of our criteria to make the Market Rhythms list on that page; as well, the Bond (as noted two comments prior) has arrived at chart resistance in the 138 handle. BEGOS metals are firmer thus far despite further EuroCurrency weakness.
25 Sep '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Bond (137^05) is the sole BEGOS Market presently higher in the session; per yesterday's comment, the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work higher this morning. The EuroCurrencies are leading the BEGOS volatility, their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) being the most traced thus far. The two weakest markets are Gold (1210.0) and Copper (3.0380), both -0.6%. Amongst our list of the best Market Rhythms upon which to keep an eye, the 6-hr. Price Oscillator on Oil (93.00) may pop positive by day's end. Notably weaker Durables are due @ 05:30 PT.
24 Sep '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: At our Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" on the Bond (137^09) are curling higher, an early indication that the 21-day linreg downtrend is fizzling; an aggressive play there is thus to the LongSide with a stop either below the trend's recent low of 135^13, or more tightly below the clump of trading support in the 136^08-136^04 band as shown at our Market Profiles page; risk is unbalanced given chart resistance at 138^00; (be wary as well of a 5-yr. T-Note auction later today). The Spoo (1977.25) is +0.3% after the S&P (1982.77) closed on the day's low. New Home Sales at 07:00 PT.
23 Sep '14, 04:26 Pacific Time: Gold (1231.9) is the BEGOS leader to the upside (+1.4%) and has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far at 155%; Silver (17.895) in a still deeply-oversold condition (see Market Magnets) is higher at +1.0%, its EDTR traced by 105%. The balance of the BEGOS Markets also are all higher with the exception of the Spoo (1980.50) at -0.3%; its daily Price Oscillator study appears poised to go negative this week. Our anticipation of the same study for Oil (91.68) turning positive has yet to materialize. Mind our Market Profiles page for apices of near-term overhead resistance.
22 Sep '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Silver (17.655) per our comment of better than a month ago (18 Aug) regarding the 13/89 daily EMA negative crossing and as detailed in recent editions of The Gold Update is now, per the current edition, "well-oversold" whether measured by its distance from its Market Magnet, its price relative to that of Gold, as well as by more traditional textbook technical tools. Keep an eye at Market Trends for Silver's "Baby Blues" to at some point come off of the floor. Having traced 158% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far, no other BEGOS Market is over 100%. Existing Home Sales at 07:00 PT.
19 Sep '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: Of the 8 Markets that comprise BEGOS, just 2 are above water to this point of the session, namely the Spoo (2010.25, +0.3%) and barely Copper (3.0970, +0.1%). Whilst no one component has traced in excess of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the EuroCurrencies are the most volatile and presently the weakest (-0.5%); however, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both the Euro (1.2868) and Swiss (1.0664) are just perceptively beginning to curl up from their respective floors, an early notion of their downtrends having run the bulk of their courses. Leading Indicators at 07:00 PT.
18 Sep '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies and the Bond (135^25) have exhibited the most volatility thus far in BEGOS, the Swiss (1.0669) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 118%. The most subtle market is Silver (18.520) with just a 35% EDTR tracing. Gold (1224.2) has hit its lowest level since early January, although price is resilient in the session and presently just above yesterday's GLOBEX settle of 1223.9. Oil's (94.51) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to climb toward clearing negativity where they've resided since early July. Housing Data at 05:30 PT; Philly Fed at 07:00.
17 Sep '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1465) swiftly reached its Market Rhythm target of 3.1440 during yesterday's session. The daily Price Oscillator study on Oil (94.57) still is not quite positive, albeit at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are pulling up from the floor. Today brings the FOMC's decision on rates as QE winds downs and the improving data (see our Economic Barometer) should play into the Statement and Yellen press conference. Both the Bond (136^06) and Gold (1238.0) are firm thus far, the remaining 6 BEGOS markets slightly weaker on balance. CPI at 05:30 PT and NAHB Housing at 07:00.
16 Sep '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Per the prior two comments, Copper (3.1070) has confirmed a LongSide signal per the 4-hr. MoneyFlow study, (see Market Rhythms for the details on what triggers this and the other studies); the target price is 3.1440, (which from yesterday's confirm price [at 08:00 PT] of 3.0920 is $1,300/cac). We're also returning focus to Oil's (92.66) daily Price Oscillator study, which after approaching positive territory two weeks ago only to back off, is again looking to leave negative territory, (i.e. not yet confirmed). The metals and Bond (136^17) are the BEGOS risers thus far. PPI at 05:30 PT.
15 Sep '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Copper (3.0865) 4-hr. MoneyFlow study noted in the prior comment would presently confirm a shift to the LongSide come 08:00 PT; per our Market Rhythms page you can see that study's price follow-through has reached at least $1,300/cac in 6 of the last 7 confirms. Oil (91.37) is off the most (-0.8%) in BEGOS and has traced the most (96%) of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The current edition of The Gold Update -- notably in its opening graphic -- reflects the recent pronounced weakness across BEGOS. NY Empire Index is due at 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil at 06:15.
12 Sep '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: Silver (18.640) is the most volatile BEGOS Market thus far with 89% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced. Volume in the EuroCurrencies is moving into their December contracts, (Monday is "1st Notice" for September). Refer to our Market Rhythms page for technical studies that we find are producing the most consistent results; one we're watching at the moment is Copper's (3.0960) 4-hr. MoneyFlow, the next signal of which will be to the LongSide once that study confirms a 4-hr. period's ending above 75, (0-100 scale), in your analytics. Retail Sales due at 05:30 PT.
11 Sep '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo (September=1988.50) rolls into December this morning as the pit front-month ; the Dec fair value is -8.74 (vs Sep -0.87); volume shan't surpass that of Sep until Fri/Mon. All 3 BEGOS metals are under pressure thus far: Copper (3.0645) is -1.5% with an EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of 124%, respectively, Silver (18.740) is -1.2% with 119% traced, and Gold (1242.3) is -0.6% with 93% traced. We're shelving our anticipation of Oil's (90.57) daily Price Oscillator turning positive. A glance at our Market Trends page confirms negativity across all 8 BEGOS Markets.
10 Sep '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: No one BEGOS Market is presently changed by more than +/-0.2% nor have we any excessive EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings. Neither have we had a confirmed Market Rhythms signal of late upon which we'd leap: a calm before the storm. Our Market Trends page shows Silver (19.055), per its "Baby Blues", in one of the most consistent downtrends in memory, the dots now having been buried below -80% for better than a month. Indeed, every BEGOS Markets' 21-day linear regression trend is down, save for the Spoo (1990.00) and barely so Copper (3.1030). WhlsInv @ 07PT.
09 Sep '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1430) is again the BEGOS Markets' volatility leader, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) already 113% traced, with price -1.3%. A distant 2nd is Oil (93.74), its tracing 61%, with price +0.6%. The only "active" Market Rhythm signal, which we're not chasing, is a confirmed negative crossing for Gold (1256.6) on its 6-hr. MACD that is targeting a price of 1238.6, which in turn would be beyond the 1280-1240 support zone. Our preference is to remain on watch for Oil's daily Price Oscillator to confirm a positive stance. The EuroCurrencies appear quite low per their Market Magnets.
08 Sep '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Oil (92.76) is lower for a third successive session, keeping a shift to positive on its daily Price Oscillator at bay. As noted on 03 Sep and now as confirmed in the current edition of The Gold Update, the weekly parabolic trend for Gold (1265.9) has flipped to Short toward re-entrapping price in the 1280-1240 support zone. Following a rash of Copper (3.1985) buying at the open, 'tis the most volatile BEGOS Market is with 117% of its EDTR traced (see Market Ranges). The Bond (138^10) is firmer and the Spoo (2003.00) lower, Precious Metals and EuroCurrencies muted.
05 Sep '14, 04:24 Pacific Time: With August payrolls in the balance at 05:30 PT, the Spoo (1991.25) is again leading the BEGOS Markets' EDTR tracings, thus far at 83% (see Market Ranges); as well the Spoo is off the most (-0.4%) of the BEGOS bunch. Strength is in all 3 of the BEGOS metals, Gold (1266.6) presently up the most (+0.4%). Oil's (94.54) daily Price Oscillator study has yet to turn positive, however 'tis closer to so doing, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for Oil continuing to notch higher. Silver (19.135) has come within 2¢ of sub-19 as has been our concern in recent editions of The Gold Update.
04 Sep '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Despite the fallout in Oil (95.36) that canceled our Market Rhythm target for 97.27, we're now monitoring the daily Price Oscillator which is tending towards turning positive in the next session or two; also at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are continuing to come off of the mat. The Spoo (2005.75) is the largest EDTR tracer (73%) so far in BEGOS with a lot of incoming data due later today including that from the ADP on jobs, Productivity, and ISM Services; look for the Econ Baro to be updated after 07:00 PT. The 3 BEGOS metals are all firm and the EuroCurrencies lower ahead of the ECB.
03 Sep '14, 04:26 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper (3.1410), yesterday had the early sense of a micro-Black Swan as the 7 other BEGOS Markets were down, some firmly so such as the Bond (138^08), Gold (1269.4), Silver (19.210) & Oil (93.77). The latter's 4-hr. Price Oscillator study turned negative to nix our 97.27 upside Market Rhythm target. Gold has returned to the trappings of the 1280-1240 support zone as has been frequently displayed in The Gold Update's chart of weekly bars, by which the parabolic trend shall show has having flipped to Short by week's end. Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
02 Sep '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Globex session which began Sunday afternoon (PT) continues with all but one BEGOS Market now down, save for the Spoo (2003.00). The precious metals are the volatility leaders and taking the brunt of the selling: Gold (1272.4, -1.2%) has traced 187% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and Silver (19.255, -1.3%) 128% of its EDTR. Oil's (95.18) Market Rhythm target per the positive 4-hr. Price Oscillator is still 97.27. With volatility now ramping up from StateSide Labor Day through at least October, it pays to stay apprised of what signals are best at our Market Rhythms page.
01 Sep '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: StateSide trading floors are closed for Labor Day, however the BEGOS Markets are on the move. Copper (3.1500) is the most volatile thus far with 65% of its EDTR traced (see Market Ranges) and is down the most (-0.4%) in BEGOS. Gold (1288.8) is the only BEGOS Market presently higher, albeit marginally so; The Gold Update's current edition is our 250th and is entitled "The Case For Gold $2,000 Today". Oil's (95.69) LongSide Market Rhythm target of 97.27 remains supported by the positive stance of the 4-hr. Price Oscillator; Oil's "Baby Blues" are on the rise at Market Trends.
29 Aug '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2001.50) hit its Market Rhythm target of 2003.75 overnight as derived from the daily Price Oscillator positive crossing (see 21 Aug comment). BEGOS EDTR tracings (Market Ranges) are moderate thus far heading into the StateSide holiday weekend. Oil (94.94) has confirmed a positive Price Oscillator crossing on the 4-hr. bars, the target there being 97.27. Copper's (3.1695) daily 13/89 EMA looks to fail on the positive side (see 27 Aug comment), the daily MACD also near to crossing down. Today is 1st Notice for the Sep Bond (141^17) as it rolls into Dec (140^03).
28 Aug '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: Silver (19.740) is nicely defying the lower "odds" of its 13/89 daily EMA negative crossing (confirmed at 11 Aug close); fortunately, Silver had already achieved our downside Market Rhythm target (see 20 Aug comment) and its daily MACD presently would confirm a positive crossing at session's end, although that study's Market Rhythm has not been sufficiently consistent in recent crossings to warrant taking a position; this morning the white metal has BEGOS' broadest EDTR tracing at 166% (Market Ranges) and price is +1.6%. Gold's (1292.9) EDTR tracing ranks 2nd at 110%.
27 Aug '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are quietly higher at present. Copper (3.2095) has confirmed another upside Market Rhythm signal, (in addition the the positive daily MACD crossing) as its 13/89 daily EMA also has positively crossed; the latter signal's target (about 3.2785) is more modest than that using the MACD (about 3.3470); Copper's "Baby Blues" are rising (see Market Trends), but with the trend itself still down, that closer target is more prudent. The Spoo (2000.00) still has its 2003.75 target open per the daily Price Oscillator positive crossing of 19 Aug. Light econ calendar today.
26 Aug '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: Precious metals are getting the bid this morning, Gold (1288.2) having the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing thus far at +128%, with Silver's (19.505) at +97%; both markets have been up by at least +1.0%. Copper (3.1985) is off the most (-0.7%) in BEGOS although its newly confirmed positive crossing on the daily MACD remains intact. After the S&P's (1997.92) crossing above 2000 yesterday, the Spoo (1998.25) presently would put the Index back above that milestone at the RTH opening. In the balance however are July's Durable Orders due out at 05:30 PT.
25 Aug '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Following the 4-hour Globex-delayed open, the session's strength is thus far in the Bond (140^29), Oil (93.81) and the Spoo (1994.50); the latter's LongSide Market Rhythm signal for 2003.75 remains intact as triggered last week on the daily Price Oscillator study. Contract volume for both Silver (19.400) and Copper (3.040) is moving into the December contracts; the red metal did confirm a LongSide signal per the daily MACD with a Market Rhythm target of 3.3245, (or about 3.3470 basis Dec). EuroCurrencies continue to weaken. Jul New Home Sales are due at 07:00 PT.
22 Aug '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: Gold (1281.7), Silver (19.495) and Copper (3.1980) are the BEGOS upside leaders thus far; the red metal's daily MACD is presently poised to turn positive by session's end, such signal's Market Rhythm analysis having yielded fairly robust results (in 7 of the last 10 crossings) with follow-through moves of at least 0.1200 points ($3,000/cac). The Bond (140^15) is also up ahead of comments from Jackson Hole by both Yellen (07:00 PT) and Draghi (11:30 PT). If the Spoo (1987.00) reaches its high "if an up day" (BEGOS Markets S&P 500 page) the S&P (1992.37) itself would hit 2000.
21 Aug '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: On occasion, a Market Rhythm signal can trigger and rapidly hit its target: so was the case for Gold (1281.3), the daily price oscillator for which confirmed a negative crossing at yesterday's close (1292.5) with a target (1279.9) that was achieved overnight; Gold is the EDTR (Market Ranges) tracing leader thus far at 130%. The Spoo (1986.50) triggered a positive daily price oscillator commencing at the open of yesterday's session, the target price being 2003.75; that would see the S&P (1986.51) cross 2000 for the first time. Econ Baro update post-data after 07:00 PT.
20 Aug '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Silver (19.460) reached our Market Rhythm target of 19.445 yesterday; again as mentioned in both the 18 Aug comment and current Gold Update, the negative stance of the 13/89 EMA crossing could, per prior median crossings, pull Silver sub-19. The EuroCurrencies are defying the recent up-curl in their respective "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), both the Euro (1.3284) and Swiss (1.0974) at their lowest levels in almost a year; they are the EDTR (see Market Ranges) leaders in the session. The BEGOS metals markets are all higher, as is Oil (93.15); FOMC Minutes due at 11:00 PT.
19 Aug '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold's (1301.5) 12-hr. Price Oscillator study flipped to negative at 00:00 PT thus nullifying the 1327.6 target; but the Market Rhythm for this signal is now not strong enough to consider the ShortSide. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets (save for the EuroCurrencies) are higher, with Silver (19.655) leading the pack +0.4%; still, Silver's 13/89 EMA cross on the daily bars has furthered its negativity, the Market Rhythm target there still in play for 19.445. The most volatile BEGOS Market thus far is the Bond (140^17) in tracing 51% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). CPI & Housing at 05:30 PT.
18 Aug '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: A highlight in the current edition of the Gold Update is Silver's (19.555) 13/89 EMA on the daily bars having confirmed a negative cross; whilst on the September contract the Market Rhythm follow-through target of 19.445 has almost already been achieved, "median" and "average" follow-through distances for the last 10 such crossings would in the current case put Silver into the 18s/17s, (again our trading target is only down to 19.445). For this session, equities are higher and debt lower. Oil's (96.32) contract volume is rolling into October (94.39) with $2 negative contango.
15 Aug '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm target for Copper (3.0980, tar 3.0960) was achieved yesterday for a ShortSide gain (from 3.2160 on 17 July) of $3,000/cac; this MACD-triggered move really caught the cresting of Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the ride down. The BEGOS Markets to this point of the session are only mildly higher, with the exception of Gold (1313.3), ahead of incoming data for the PPI, NY Index, IndPrd/CapUtil and Michigan Sentiment. Look for the Econ Baro to be updated just after 07:00 PT. This is the last day of Q2 Earnings Season: 55% bettered y-o-y.
14 Aug '14, 04:45 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.1036) has the largest EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) thus far amongst the BEGOS Markets at 103%, followed by the Euro (1.3379) at 92%; EuroZone growth has slowed to a halt. The Spoo (1946.75) is the most subdued Market with a 34% EDTR tracing. Copper (3.1080) is off the most (-0.3%) in BEGOS; the red metal's Market Rhythm target of 3.0960 is within range today. Yesterday's eyed Bond (139^16) Short on the 6-hr. MoneyFlow study did not confirm. Gold (1311.4) is seeing its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) stall; those for Silver (19.845) remain in decline.
13 Aug '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1365) continues to work lower, hitting its lowest levels since the daily MACD triggered a Short (see 17 July comment), the Market Rhythm target still being 3.0960. Gold's (1309.4) 12-hr. Price Oscillator study remains positive and targeting 1327.6. We're eying a Bond (138^25) Short which could trigger today on the 6-hr. MoneyFlow study, (its profit history currently in the list at Market Rhythms). At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" on the EuroCurrencies continue to firm; they are leading the BEGOS EDTRs (see Market Ranges) so far in the session. Jul Retail Sales at 05:30.
12 Aug '14, 04:44 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets overnight trading ranges are broader than at this time yesterday; both EuroCurrencies have traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (See Market Ranges). The ShortSide Copper (3.1810) and LongSide Gold (1312.5) Market Rhythm targets as mentioned prior remain on track. At Market Profiles, Gold appears firmly supported above its 1309 trading support as does Silver (20.090) above its 20.000 trading support. The Bond (139^09) appears quite high vis-à-vis its valuation line (see Market Values). Econ Data remains subdued, but is back-loaded into week's end.
11 Aug '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: Per the current edition of The Gold Update as well as our Market Trends page, Gold (1311.3) is exhibiting the strongest ascent in "Baby Blues" 21-day linreg trend consistency. Those for the Euro Currencies are just beginning to turn up suggesting higher levels are ahead for the Euro (1.3394) and Swiss (1.1042). Given the state of "geo-jitters", the BEGOS Markets instead appear fairly normal thus far, although the Spoo (1933.25) is up a firm +0.5%. Market Rhythm targets for Gold (tar: 1327.6) and Copper (3.1875, tar: 3.0960) are intact, despite apparent short-covering in the latter.
08 Aug '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1908.75) yesterday reached our Market Rhythm target of 1900.00. Gold 's (1316.3) daily Price Oscillator target (which was 1270.0) has been replaced with an upside target of 1327.6 as both the daily MACD and 12-hr. Price Oscillator studies have turned positive. After being lower on "geo-jitters", the BEGOS Markets are all presently higher, the one exception being Copper (3.1690) whose ShortSide Market Rhythm target remains 3.0960 as its daily MACD continues to move lower. Q2 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs due at 05:30 PT; Jun Wholesale Inventories at 07:00 PT.
07 Aug '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: The Price Oscillator study on the daily timeframe for Gold (1307.9) is beginning to wane, (which in The Gold Update we've desired 'twould), in terms of achieving a Market Rhythm target of 1270; meanwhile, Gold's daily MACD, whilst negative, may well turn positive by week's end and override the Price Oscillator signal; and per our Market Trends page, you can see Gold's "Baby Blues" just getting an initial tick higher. Conversely, the Spoo's (1918.75) "Baby Blues" appear as in free fall. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate thus far with both the Bond (138^26) and Spoo up +0.2%.
06 Aug '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: Silver (19.810) achieved yesterday its Market Rhythm target from the daily Price Oscillator study of 19.920 for a ShortSide gain of $3,400/cac. Copper (3.1680) is still targeting 3.0960 per its daily MACD; the Spoo's (1908.25) target remains 1900 per its daily Price Oscillator study; and Gold's (1290.2) daily Price Oscillator study target of 1270 is intact, albeit the yellow metal is quite buoyant these days, even in the face of Dollar (81.750) "strength", which if viewed on a broad-term basis is a mere blip. The Bond (139^00) has the session's largest EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) at 109%.
05 Aug '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets' volatility leaders thus far; the Swiss (1.0999) has traced 107% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) and the Euro (1.3389) 103%. The session's most muted markets are Oil (98.52) and the Bond (138^02). The technical studies driving the four downside Market Rhythm targets described in our most recent comments all remain intact. Per its Market Profile, the Spoo (1927.00), which is presently pointing to a -7 opening for the S&P (1938.99), indicates Spoo trading support at 1924.00. Jun Factory Orders and Jul ISM Services are due at 07:00 PT.
04 Aug '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update displays an eight-panel graphic describing -- save for the Bond -- the other 7 BEGOS Markets in 21-day linreg downtrends, (see also our Market Trends page). The morning is fairly settled to the point across the BEGOS spectrum. Gold (1292.9), Silver (20.410), Copper (3.2180) and the Spoo (1926.25) are all maintaining their respective downside Market Rhythm targets noted below in our prior comment. Q2 Earnings Season has another 2 weeks to run: per our page there, 62% have bettered their year-over-year profits; 30% have worsened.
01 Aug '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: 10 items of incoming economic data, including that for payrolls, are scheduled this morning; the Econ Baro shall be updated just after 07:00 PT. Both Oil (97.47) and the Spoo (1913.75) have traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) thus far. The Spoo's Price Oscillator study on the daily time frame has confirmed a Short signal with a Market Rhythms target of 1900. The other targets on Gold (1284.8, tar 1270), Silver (20.360, tar 19.920) and Copper (3.2130, Tar 3.0960) remain in force. Keep an eye on our Market Magnets page for signs of excessive movement.
31 Jul '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1954.00) would presently pull the S&P (1970.07) down some 11 points at the open to 1959. The Spoo's volatility to this point of the session is essentially double that of the other 7 BEGOS Markets, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) currently 118% traced. Ironically, the least volatile Market thus far is Gold (1295.8) with just 39% of its EDTR traced. The aforementioned downside targets continue to be in play for Gold, Copper (3.2395) and Silver (20.700). Only Silver and Oil (99.58) are in positive territory. A Q2 increase is forecast for the ECI at 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT.
30 Jul '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: The FOMC concludes its 2-day meeting with its statement due at 11:00 PT (no press conference). Volume moving into Gold's December Contract (1300.7) as August's (1298.6) 1st Notice for delivery is tomorrow. Both of the Market Rhythm targets remain intact on Gold (tar 1270.0) and Copper (3.2150, tar 3.0960). Meanwhile, Silver (20.605) has confirmed a ShortSide signal per its daily Price Oscillator study, targeting 19.920 ($3,400/cac from the session's opening level of 20.600. Oil (101.35) & the Spoo (1969.75) are BEGOS' upside leaders at +0.3%; Bond (138^22) -0.2%.
29 Jul '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: A very mixed session for the BEGOS Markets thus far: 4 are up and 4 are down. Silver (20.710) is the upside leader at +0.4% with 72% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced; Copper (3.2340) is the downside leader at -0.3% and having traced 69% of its EDTR. Copper's daily MACD is still negative, the Market Rhythm target being 3.0960; Gold's daily Price Oscillator study also remains negative so that 1270.0 is suggested to trade. No BEGOS component is too far from its Market Magnet, but the Bond (138^20), per our Market Values page, is high. Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold's (1305.4) daily Price Oscillator study, per the prior comment and as detailed in the current edition of The Gold Update, has changed to negative; Copper's (3.2425) daily MACD remains negative; for both markets, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are continuing to drop. The BEGOS Market with the most consistent 21-day linreg uptrend is the Bond (138^14); the most consistent downtrend over the same timeframe belongs to the EuroCurrencies (Euro: 1.3438; Swiss: 1.1063). Volatility is lite via EDTRs (Market Ranges) thus far. Pending Home Sales due 07:00 PT.
25 Jul '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: Yesterday's Silver (20.510) Short target rapidly reached its Market Rhythm target; contrarily, the white metal is presently the strongest upside market (+0.4%) in BEGOS. As for Gold (1295.3), its daily Price Oscillator Study has confirmed a negative stance suggestive of price trading down to 1270.0. Copper (3.2720) is again higher, however the daily MACD is still negative and "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) another notch lower this morning. Both BEGOS' EuroCurrencies are leading the volatility with 78% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). June Durables due at 05:30 PT.
24 Jul '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Copper (3.2530) is robustly higher this morning, +1.5% with 144% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) already traced; the daily MACD, however, remains negative and the "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) lower still such that today's strength due to perceived global economic improvement is not enough to, at least as yet, take the Market Rhythms 3.0960 target off the table. The S&P (1987.01) appears in its drive to tap 2000, the current Spoo (1985.00) presently suggesting the Index trade up to 1991 at the open. Silver has confirmed a Short on the 6-hr. MACD, targeting 20.635.
23 Jul '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Still no new daily Price Oscillator study confirms on either the Spoo (1979.00) nor Oil (102.56), the latter per its Market Magnet appearing excessively high, (although that would not preclude us from taking the Price Oscillator's eventual LongSide signal). The Copper (3.1975) Market Rhythm target of 3.0960 remains intact per the daily MACD; at our Market Trends page you can see Copper's "Baby Blues" nearing negative territory, (this morning in real-time they're down to the +20% level); Copper has the most EDTR (Market Ranges) tracing (63%) of the BEGOS Markets thus far.
22 Jul '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are BEGOS' EDTR (Market Ranges) volatility leaders thus far, both the Euro (1.3484) and Swiss (1.1100) exceeding 100% tracings with prices falling to their lowest levels since February. Any effect on Gold (1308.0, -0.3%) appears muted. As to Market Rhythms: the daily MACD for Copper (3.2095) is more negative still, (the target remains 3.0960); two anticipated signals are the next negative daily Price Oscillator on the Spoo (1972.75) and positively so on the same study for Oil (103.16). We were a day early for the CPI: 'tis today at 05:30 PT; Existing Homes at 07:00.
21 Jul '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Copper's (3.1795) daily MACD is further reinforcing its negative stance amongst a mixed batch of BEGOS markets this morning. The red metal's 12-hr. MoneyFlow study has also fired off a ShortSide signal. The Spoo (1967.75) remains near to its daily Price Oscillator study going negative, treading water in barely positive territory. Silver (20.995) is up the most (+0.3%) thus far in BEGOS; the most volatile component is the Swiss (1.1137), barely down, but having traced 68% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). Oil's (101.78) "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) stay their up curl. CPI at 05:30 PT.
18 Jul '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: After yesterday's tragic plane downing, markets are regressing lower to where prior they were: every BEGOS Market, whilst still volatile, is lower, save for the Spoo (1958.50), which per our Market Ranges has traced the most (115%) of its EDTR, the Swiss (1.1142) having thus far traced the least (37%). Copper's (3.1965) daily MACD continues to work lower toward our Market Rhythm target of 3.0960. Meanwhile at our Market Magnets page, the Bond (138^07) is appearing excessively high in its "safe haven" role. At Market Trends, Oil's (103.41) "Baby Blues" are curling higher.
17 Jul '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: Copper (3.2045) has all but tapped the anticipated 3.19s; moreover, the daily MACD confirmed a ShortSide move at yesterday's settle: the Market Rhythm target is 3.0960, (a $2,712/cac move from the current price, or $3,000/cac move from this session's opening of 3.2160). The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) were our early clue to Copper's moving lower. Russian rumblings are lending to the Spoo's (1964.00) having so far the largest EDTR tracing (88%) of the BEGOS Market Ranges. Contract volume in Oil (102.31) moving from Aug into Sep. Home Starts & Philly Fed data today.
16 Jul '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are the most volatile components of the BEGOS Markets thus far; of note the Swiss' (1.1138) daily Price Oscillator is finally turning negative toward voiding that 1.1304 goal. Ironically, Copper (3.2510) is the least volatile, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) having been just 33% traced, as is same for Silver (20.745). Copper's daily MACD has all but confirmed a negative cross, which may lend to a $3,000/cac downside target; again the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping. PPI due at 05:30 PT; at 07:00 Yellen & the House Committee on Financial Services.
15 Jul '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: At Market Trends we've been focused on Copper's (3.2435) "Baby Blues" which now are notably rolling over such that the 3.19s look to be tested; also the daily MACD on Copper is approaching a negative cross. Save for casually watching the Swiss (1.1219), its daily Price Oscillator study still positive and thus keeping the 1.1304 goal in tact, we've no live Market Rhythm targets at the moment. Gold's daily MACD is now negative following yesterday's "expected" return into the low 1300s, but we shan't chase it. The Spoo (1971.00) is "unch" ahead of Yellen & the Senate Banking Committee.
14 Jul '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: Continued whipsawing by the Euro 's (1.3632) daily Price Oscillator study has invalidated its present signaling use and Market Rhythm target of 1.3725. The same study on the Swiss (1.1233) remains in force, the target there still 1.304. Oil's (100.46) 8-hr. MACD never did turn positive due as there was robust selling on Friday. As expected in the current edition of The Gold Update, the precious metals are pulling back: notably for Silver (21.130), its 8-hr. MACD confirmed turning negative come 00:00 PT, but ought not be taken in this case as a Short. Plenty of Econ Data this week.
11 Jul '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.3609), whilst still LongSide viable for the run to 1.3725, may see that Market Rhythm target nixed come day's day's end as the daily Price Oscillator study remains whippy. The same study for the Spoo (1961.25) is again approaching long overdue negative territory. Our mention 2 days ago of Oil's (102.47) 8-hr. MACD turning positive has yet to occur, but it appears poised to so do as soon as 08:00 PT or into the Sunday/Monday session for a Market Rhythms target as high as the 105s; the next turn up in Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) ought support that target.
10 Jul '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: A whipsaw in the Euro's (1.3609) daily Price Oscillator study had reversed its stance back to positive, the upside target now being 1.3725; (a failure of this Market Rhythm outcome would likely nix again reversing nor using it until it returns to our profit probability requirements to thus qualify for our Market Rhythms page). The Swiss (1.1215) target of 1.1304 is still in force. Oil (101.75) achieved its Market Rhythm target yesterday (102.95) to close out a $3,100/cac gain. Silver's (21.545) 8-hr. MACD study is poised to reverse to Long at 08:00 PT. S&P (1972.83) to open well down.
09 Jul '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.3608) finally confirmed a negative stance for its daily Price Oscillator study. That removes our upside Market Rhythm target of 1.3777 and replaces it with a downside target of 1.3536, (which is a $1,000/cac move from this session's opening level of 1.3616). The like study on the Swiss (1.1198) is still positive. Meanwhile, Oil's (103.29) 8-hr. MACD stance may confirm a cross to positive at 08:00 PT; the target of 102.95 may not be reached, however such Short signal was triggered up at 106.55, (presently better than a $3,000/cac run). FOMC minutes at 11:00 PT.
08 Jul '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Buoyancy in the Euro (1.3600) kept its daily Price Oscillator study from confirming the change to negative yesterday; it looks to so do at today's settle; the same study for the Swiss (1.1192) remains positive. The 8-hr. MACD studies on both Silver (21.175) and Oil (103.32) are still negative. The aforementioned Market Rhythm targets on those BEGOS components thus linger as viable. Again, we're focused on a pending negative cross for Gold's (1323.3) daily MACD, such event being kept at bay by the yellow metal moving higher so far; but note its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends.
07 Jul '14, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.3601) daily Price Oscillator study, as noted, is presently negative: should it close the session as such, the 1.3777 Market Rhythm target will be nixed and likely reversed for a level some 0.0080 points ($1,000/cac) below the next session's opening price. The like study on the Swiss (1.1191) is still positive. The current edition of The Gold Update, whilst eying the 1400 level, acknowledges that Gold (1315) can first test 1300, to which end the daily MACD may cross negatively in the next day or so. The week's Econ Baro calendar is light; Q2 Earnings Seasons begins.
04 Jul '14, 04:25 Pacific Time: 'Tis a StateSide holiday here, however the BEGOS Markets continue working with the balance of the world until 10:00 this morning. Whilst the Short signals remain in place per both Silver (21.170) and Oil (103.74) per their respective 8-hr. MACDs, the daily Price Oscillator signal as Long for the Euro (1.3594) is weakening such that the Market Rhythms target of 1.3777 may get nixed early in the new week. (The like signal on the Swiss [1.1183] is not as similarly weak, the target there still being 1.1304). The Economic Barometer received a net boost from yesterday's pack of data.
03 Jul '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Economic Barometer receives a large dose of data this morning as jobs and other data are moved into today's abbreviated StateSide stock market session ahead of tomorrow's holiday. (Note: all BEGOS products resume trading today at 15:00 through 10:00 tomorrow). All Market Rhythm targets noted yesterday remain current. Notably for Oil (103.77), its 102.95 target per the 8-hr. MACD study may get further vindication as the daily Price Oscillator study looks to go negative in the new week. Metals are the weakness in BEGOS thus far. ECB/Draghi at 04:45.
02 Jul '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: The open Market Rhythm targets all remain in tact for Silver (21.100, tar: 20.680), Oil (105.05, tar: 102.95), the Swiss (1.1266, tar: 1.1304) and the Euro (1.3669, tar: 1.3777). We're eying the Spoo (1967.50) for a Short signal from its daily Price Oscillator sometime next week, such study generally having weakened since 10 June despite the "ever rising" S&P (1973.32). The BEGOS Markets presently are all little changed, (Copper the most volatile), ahead of Yellen and Lagarde on the dais at the IMF at 08:00 PT, preceded by the June ADP data at 05:15 and May Factory Orders at 07:00.
01 Jul '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: Joining the Swiss (1.1285) with a Long signal per the daily Price Oscillator study is now the Euro (1.3693) with a Market Rhythm target of 1.3777. Gold (1326.3) yesterday reversed its weekly parabolic trend to Long; per the current edition of The Gold Update we are seeking the at least the 1380s on this run, if not a new yearly high (1392) and the 1400s. Both Silver (21.125) and Oil (105.69) still have their respective 8-hr. MACDs in negative stance. 'Tis now Q3 and next week the start of Q2 Earnings Season. S&P's (1960.23) "live" p/e is 31.4x. ISM & Construction at 07:00 PT.
30 Jun '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (137^05) is the strength in BEGOS thus far whilst both Silver (20.890) and Oil (105.31) are the weaker components. These latter two are maintaining the negative disposition of their 8-hr. MACDs and thus their Market Rhythm targets are still in play respectively at 20.680 and 102.95. The Swiss (1.1241) finally confirmed the anticipated positive stance in its daily Price Oscillator, albeit the Market Rhythms target is a modest 1.1304, ($900/cac. from this session's open of 1.1232, this amount having been achieved in 9 of the last 10 such signals). Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT.
27 Jun '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have exhibited normal volatility to this point of the session, the largest EDTR (Market Ranges) tracing thus far being 71% for Copper (3.1775), and the least for Oil (105.93) at 38%; Oil's 8-hr. MACD remains negative as does the same study for Silver (20.995). As for the Swiss (1.1202), its daily Price Oscillator did not confirm turning positive yesterday, but looks to so do today if price ends in the black. As for the S&P's (1957.22) recovery yesterday, the Spoo (1943.75) presently points to a -6 start; Market Trends shows the fall in the Spoo's Baby Blues.
26 Jun '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold (1311.1) is the most volatile of the BEGOS bunch thus far, the yellow metal having traded 78% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Gold confirmed a negative crossing of its 8-hr. MACD yesterday at 08:00 PT (entry price 1319.5) and overnight already hit its Market Rhythm target of 1309.5, (gain of $1,000/cac). Silver's (20.875) Market Rhythm target remains 20.680 as for Oil (106.32) it target of 102.95. For the EuroCurrencies, were the Swiss (1.1196) to presently close, 'twould confirm a Long per its daily Price Oscillator. Personal Income/Spending & Core Inflation due at 05:30 PT.
25 Jun '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: Overnight, Silver (Sep 20.870) confirmed a Short signal per its 8-hr. MACD from an entry point of 20.900, (above the present price) with a Market Rhythms target of 20.680, Sep as volume will imminently be moving into that contract as will that for Copper (Sep 3.1460). The daily Price Oscillators on the EuroCurrencies have yet to trigger to the LongSide. Oil's (106.36) 8-hr. MACD is still negative. Oil and Gold (1313.7) are the two BEGOS markets to have traced better than 100% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges) so far. "Expected" lower final read (-1.8%) of Q1 GDP is due at 05:30 PT.
24 Jun '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: Still no LongSide confirmation as yet on the daily Price Oscillators for either the Euro (1.3626) nor Swiss (1.1198), although both seem like to occur in the next day or two. Oil's (106.31) 8-hr. MACD study remains negatively disposed and thus, too, the viability of its 102.95 Market Rhythm target. At our Market Trends page, note the breaking down of the Baby Blues on the Spoo (1949.25). Silver (21.120) has the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing (100%) of the BEGOS Markets so far in the session. Gold (1325.5) attempting to surpass its peak of 14 April (1331.4).
23 Jun '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1445) achieved its Market Rhythm target overnight of 3.1500 (for a tidy $2,088/cac. gain if entered from the confirm price of 3.0665); Copper is the only BEGOS market with any robust tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), thus far at 102%. Ranking 2nd by EDTR is Oil (106.98) at 70%, price's buoyancy of the last few sessions having not been enough yet to reverse the 8-hr. MACD signal to Long; so for now, the price target there remains 102.95. The daily Price Oscillator studies on both the Euro (1.3588) and Swiss (1.1172) have yet to confirm Long signals.
20 Jun '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Reaching its Market Rhythm target of 1291.1 and then some is Gold (1310.4), yesterday's settle of 1320.4 being above the 300-day moving average for the first time since 07 Feb '13. Tomorrow's edition of The Gold Update ought show the parabolic price to flip the weekly trend to Long quite close now around 1330. Oil's (105.96) Market Rhythm target of 102.95 remains intact as does that for Copper (3.0910) to reach 3.1500. Both BEGOS EuroCurrencies are nearing Long signals on their daily Price Oscillator studies, the Euro (1.3592) & Swiss (1.1173) in our focus next week.
19 Jun '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold (1282.3) has sufficiently whirled 'round such as to reverse and confirm its 8-hr. MACD to Long with a Market Rhythms target now of 1291.1. Oil (105.99) is maintaining its own 8-hr. MACD Short stance. Copper (3.0665) has confirmed a Long signal on its 8-hr. Price Oscillator with a Market Rhythms target on the Sep contract of 3.1500. The EuroCurrencies have displayed the bulk of BEGOS volatility to this point of the session, just either side of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) already traced. Final day of the week for scheduled incoming Econ Data.
18 Jun '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: At 11:00 PT The FOMC is expected to announce its purchasing of Treasuries and MBS at a monthly $35 billion pace; Yellen's press conference follows at 11:30 PT. EDTR tracings (see Market Ranges) across the BEGOS spectrum are naturally narrow ahead of the Fed, the Spoo (1934.50) in a range thus far of less than 3 points. Both Gold (1271.0) and Oil (with its contract volume now rolling into August's 106.24) have confirmed 8-hr. MACD Short signals. Their respective targets are 1260.6 and 102.95. Copper (3.0630) has yet to confirm an 8-hr. Price Oscillator Long signal.
17 Jun '14, 04:26 Pacific Time: This morning is the opposite of 24 hours ago, as Gold (1265.2), Silver (19.570), Oil (106.17) and the Bond (135^28) are all lower. Again however, no one BEGOS Market has as yet traced 100% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). We are on Market Rhythms watch for a negative crossing for Silver's 8-hr. MACD and for a positive crossing for Copper's (3.0590) 8-hr. Price Oscillator. See our Market Rhythms pages for optimal profit targets should those and other technical studies confirm trading triggers. Data for the CPI and Housing Starts are due at 05:30 PT. FOMC tomorrow.
16 Jun '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Given geopolitical concerns, (see The Gold Update's current edition), 'tis of note that not one of the eight BEGOS components has exceeded 100% of its respective EDTR (see Market Ranges) to this point of the session. Still, Metals, Energy and Debt are getting the bid at the expense of Equities. We've no imminent Market Rhythms signals at the moment although as mentioned in our prior note, both Silver (19.695) and Gold (1281.3) reached daily MACD rhythm targets; watch our Market Rhythms page for what's been working best. NY Empire Index at 05:30 starts this "Fed" week.
13 Jun '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (19.540) and Gold (1272.9) yesterday hit their Market Rhythm targets as were sourced by MACD studies on the daily time-frame. Oil (106.85) is little changed, but not surprisingly given Iraq, its EDTR (Market Ranges) has so far traced the most (78%) of the BEGOS bunch. EuroCurrencies' volume has moved from Jun to Sep pending Monday's being "1st Position". The Economic Barometer has continued lower this week, with the PPI and Michigan Sentiment in the balance today. The Spoo (1920.25) is being mis-reported by Bloomy as -13 in ignoring the contract rollover.
12 Jun '14, 05:10 Pacific Time: We're a tad time-shifted this morning due to a local power outage yesterday ... Gold (1265.2) did confirm a Long signal per the daily MACD study, for which the Market Rhythm target is 1276.1. Silver's (19.260) target of 19.475 is being maintained. The turmoil in Iraq has Oil (106.23) at its highest levels since last mid-September, this session's EDTR (Market Ranges) now 178% traced. The other 7 BEGOS tracings are fairly normal to this point. The Spoo's (1944.5) "front month" becomes Sep at the pit opening; incoming Econ Data is prevalent both today and tomorrow.
11 Jun '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1941.50) is sufficiently lower this morning that, in concert with narrowing trading ranges, it has already reached our "low if a down day" (see both S&P 500 under BEGOS Markets and Market Ranges under BEGOS Measures) and were the Index to open now, 'twould be the lowest opening change (-8) since 05 May; the Spoo has thus far traced the most of the BEGOS EDTRs (90%); the Spoo's "front month" rolls to Sep tomorrow. Silver's (19.245) Market Rhythm target of 19.475 remains intact. Gold (1263.9) looks to confirm per its daily MACD a Long signal by day's end.
10 Jun '14, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver (19.010) confirmed a positive crossing of its daily MACD at yesterday's close; the Market Rhythm target for this Long move is 19.475. Gold's (1254.3) daily MACD continues to approach a Long signal, about a day's distance away barring a bout of selling. With debate over European Commission leadership, the EuroCurrencies are the most volatile in BEGOS thus far: the Euro (1.3540) has thus far traced 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Spoo (1945.75) has only traded lower since its 15:00 PT opening, at the moment suggesting a -5 start for the S&P (1951.27).
09 Jun '14, 04:27 Pacific Time: In BEGOS, the precious metals and energy are higher, the rest of the components lower. The current edition of The Gold Update stresses the cessation of selling in Gold (1256.5) whilst anticipating an inevitable reversal of fortune for the S&P (1949.44). Gold's daily MACD is nearing a Long signal, which once confirmed ought yield a Market Rhythm target of 12 additional upside points, ($1,200/cac). Silver's (19.110) may confirm a daily MACD Long signal at today's close, the expected Market Rhythm being an additional 42¢ ($2,100/cac/). Incoming Econ Data lite until Thu/Fri.
06 Jun '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: The aforementioned Market Rhythm targets for Gold (1252.9) and Silver (19.045) were achieved yesterday. Also as anticipated, Copper's (3.0410) 12-hr. MoneyFlow study did trigger a Short signal, albeit at an entry point of 3.0825 back at 00:00 PT, price having since plunged to have already hit the would-be-targeted 3.0425 level. At our Market Trends page, note the recovery in the EuroCurrencies, their "Baby Blues" curling back up. The Spoo (1940.50) is poised to push the S&P (1940.26) slightly higher at its opening, however first comes the May jobs creation data due at 05:30 PT.
05 Jun '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of the ECB's expected announcement within the hour to increase monetary stimulus for the EuroZone. (The BOE has just stood pat). The Long signals per the 8-hr. MACD studies remain intact on both Gold (1246.3, Market Rhythm target 1255.0) and Silver (18.815, Market Rhythm target 19.020). Copper's (3.0945) 12-hr. MoneyFlow may trigger a Short signal by week's end. The S&P 500 (1927.88) has not managed a down day of more than 2 points in better than 2 weeks, the Spoo (1927.25) presently heralding a mild up start for today.
04 Jun '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Both Gold (1246.0) and Silver (18.755) have triggered Long signals on their 8-hr. MACD studies; the respective Market Rhythms targets are 1255.0 and 19.020. Copper (3.0920) is the BEGOS market under the most duress thus far, off -1.5% and having traced 134% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). Oil (103.43) is the only component with any notably strength, +0.6%, the EDTR to this point having been 71% traced; however, Oil's "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) have begun dropping. Today brings Econ Baro data on ADP Jobs, Trade Balance, Productivity/Labor Costs and ISM Services.
03 Jun '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: BEGOS' Precious Metals and EuroCurrencies are higher this morning; the remaining 4 components are lower. Both the Bond (135^28) and Copper (3.1300) are the EDTR (Market Ranges) leaders with 104% of their respective ranges traced. Silver (18.840) may confirm a buy per its 8-hr. MACD by day's end: via our Market Rhythms page, you can see that study's suggesting a targeted Long profit of $1,100/cac after entry following confirmation. The Dollar (80.605) is en route to just its 6th down session in the last 19. Factory Orders are due at 07:00 PT; Auto/Truck sales during the day.
02 Jun '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper's (3.1685) 4-hr. MoneyFlow upside Market Rhythm target finally failed as we anticipated 'twould on Friday, although the red metal is up +1.0% with 97% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) thus far traced. The EuroCurrencies are the second most volatile within BEGOS as the ECB's EuroZine stimulus announcement is due Thursday. Per the current Gold Update, price (1247.1) remains inside the 1280-1240 support zone; the missive points out how weak Silver (18.780) is, given both Gold and the S&P (1923.57) being up some 4% year-to-date. ISM & Construction data at 07:00 PT.
30 May '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have displayed little volatility to this point of the session ahead of data due at 05:30 PT for Personal Inc/Spd & Core Inflation, and then the Chi PMI & Michigan Sentiment after stocks open; consensus is for weaker results. The Copper (3.1585) Market Rhythm target is still to the upside at 3.2375 as the 4-hr. MoneyFlow has yet to flash a Short signal. Silver's (18.980) 8-hr. MACD is turning less negative as we await a Long signal there upon a confirmed positive cross. Today is 1st Notice for the Jun Bond (138^03) as volume moves to Sep (137^10).
29 May '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1455) has the largest EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of the session thus far at 88%; the 4-hr. MoneyFlow has yet to confirm as negative, albeit our Market Rhythm target for 3.2375 may get nixed today without a further signal to go Short. All 3 BEGOS metals are lower this morning; the other 5 BEGOS markets are higher, the Spoo (1910.00) and Bond (138^22) modestly so ahead a cavalcade of data over the next two days beginning at 05:30 PT with an expected revision of Q1 GDP growth to negative. Presently we do not have any imminent Market Rhythm signals.
28 May '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold (1266.1) took a "double-down" hit yesterday, meaning it traveled lower two times as far as its EDTR (Market Ranges) would suggest for a normal down day. The selling has since ceased; broadly per the Gold Update, we've identified structural support in the 1280-1240 zone and would buy on any viable Market Rhythms' signaled upswing; we'll also watch same for Silver (19.090). Across the BEGOS Markets, only the EuroCurrencies are down this morning; the ECB's "expected cut" meeting is 05 June. Thu & Fri bring heavy Econ Data: we look for it to reign in the S&P.
27 May '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: The StateSide Sunday-Tuesday session continues, Copper (3.1660) now having given back its earlier gains, albeit the 4-hr. MoneyFlow Market Rhythm target remains 3.2375 for the present. The two markets with the largest EDTR (Market Ranges) tracings - both at 89% - are Gold (1283.5) and the Euro (1.3645). Meanwhile, Silver (19.265) is off the most (-1.2%) of the BEGOS bunch; Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain as flat as ever. The 21-day LinReg trend of the EuroCurrencies is decidedly down in anticipation of an ECB June rate cut. Durables due at 05:30 PT.
26 May '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Whilst StateSide bourses observe our Memorial Day, the BEGOS markets are electronically trading, (halt scheduled from 10:00-15:00 PT), led by Copper (3.1840) up 0.5% with 67% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far traced; Copper's 4-hr. MoneyFlow study is now Long, replacing our prior 3.0725 Market Rhythm target with 3.2375. As for both Gold (1293.2) and Silver (19.465), their 8-hr. MACD studies have crossed back to negative, thus nixing their respective 1308 and 19.920 Market Rhythms targets, (reversing Short not recommended). Watch for a weak Econ Data week.
23 May '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: There is further strength in Copper (3.1640) this morning; we've not yet had a signal contra to the 4-hr. MoneyFlow target via Market Rhythms of 3.0725, but that stance could reverse today. Copper is +1.0% and has thus far traced the most of the BEGOS EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 93%. Gold (1292.3) did confirm a positive cross of its 8-hr. MACD for a 1308 Market Rhythm target, but such signal looks weak for the present, as does the like study for Silver (19.430) and its 19.920 target. Gold's contract volume is moving from June into August. New Home Sales at 07:00 PT.
22 May '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: Oil (103.95) hit its daily Price Oscillator Market Rhythm target of 104.13. In the new session, the metals are BEGOS' upside leaders. Silver (19.590) has reversed its signal on the 8-hr. MACD from Short to Long thus nixing our 19.175 downside Market Rhythm target and replacing it with an upside goal of 19.920. Gold (1298.2) is presently poised to confirm an positive crossing of its 8-hr. MACD at 08:00 PT from which a Market Rhythm target would be 10 points higher. Copper (3.1500) is getting a bid fundamentally, but we'll maintain our 4-hr. MoneyFlow target of 3.0725 for the time being.
21 May '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Both Silver (19.335) and Copper (3.1075) appear en route to meeting their Market Rhythm targets respectively of 19.175 and 3.0725; Silver's EDTR (see Market Ranges) suggests its target is within range today. Across the BEGOS spectrum, only 2 of the 8 markets are presently up: Oil (103.08) and the Spoo (1871.75). Oil's daily Price Oscillator study confirmed a buy for the week's opening, and given the contract roll from June-to-July, the latter points to a Market Rhythm target of 104.13. The Econ Data calendar remains lite today; Fed's 30 April Minutes due at 11:00 PT.
20 May '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets are fairly subdued to this point; again there is no scheduled incoming Econ Data until tomorrow. The negative MACD cross on 8-hr. Silver (19.325) is intact with a Market Rhythm target of 19.175. Copper (3.1560) commenced the week with a confirmed sell per the 4-hr. MoneyFlow, the Market Rhythm target there being 3.0725. Gold (1291.2) fired off no less than eight buy signals in yesterday's Market Rhythms data run for each of the 4/6/8/12-hour time-frames on both the MACD and Price Oscillator studies, suggestive of a return up into the 1300s by week's end.
19 May '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: Second this morning only to Copper (3.1750), Gold (1302.03) is a BEGOS leader in EDTR (see Market Ranges) having so far traced 84% of it, as per the current Gold Update price continues to consolidate and is buoyant; with Market Profile resistance at 1307, that is the level above which further upside momentum ought ensue. Silver's (19.575) 8-hr. MACD did confirm the negative crossing. The Spoo (1869.50) is the only BEGOS Market in the red, which as an observed aside is odd given there is no scheduled Econ Data until Wednesday, (no news tending to be good news).
16 May '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Oil (101.63) has yet to confirm that positive crossover on the daily Price Oscillator study; a settle today near to or above this current price, 'twould so confirm, with a Market Rhythms target in the mid-103s. Silver's (19.385) 8-hr. MACD looks poised to confirm a downside cross at 08:00 PT barring a bounce prior to then: this study has produced follow-through by price of at least 0.220 points ($1,100/cac) in every one of its last 10 crossings as is currently listed on our Market Rhythms page. Meanwhile per Market Magnets, the Bond (137^22) appears high & EuroCurrencies low.
15 May '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Silver (19.705) hit our Market Rhythm target yesterday of 19.960, whilst overnight the Euro (1.3660) achieved its target of 1.3674. The Swiss (1.1181) is sporting the largest EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far in BEGOS at 143%. Presently we've no open Market Rhythm signals: Oil (101.93) may confirm a positive crossover today on the daily Price Oscillator study, which per our Market Rhythms page would suggest a 70% chance for a $2,000/cac (2 points) upside run; Oil's "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are rising. Today's economic data flow is heavy: Econ Baro update just after 07:00 PT.
14 May '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: The precious metals are the notable BEGOS Markets gainers this morning; Silver (19.815) is +1.3% with a Market Rhythm target based on the 12-hr. MACD of 19.960; Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are suggestive of the 21-day LinReg trend shifting to positive; Gold (1303.7) is +0.7% with Market Profile support at 1291 and overhead resistance in the 1308-1311 band. The Bond (136^16) is trading at a 10-month high ahead of PPI data due at 05:30 PT. The Spoo (1891.25) despite record highs has its underlying S&P move per our MoneyFlow link lacking in substance.
13 May '14, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.3710) is BEGOS' EDTR leader so far with 114% of that range already traced; price is weaker as the likelihood is increasing for further ECB stimulus. The Euro's negative 8-hr. MACD study has a Market Rhythm target of 1.3674. Our Oil (101.33) target of 98.44 is still in place, however its basis - the daily MACD - is near to changing to positive. The Spoo (1895.50) would put the S&P right at 1900 were the stock market to open this moment. Prior to that, the week's cavalcade of incoming economic data begins in earnest at 05:30 PT with Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing.
12 May '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1550), Silver (19.425) & Gold (1294.6) are the EDTR (see Market Ranges) leaders this session, their respective tracings so far being 178%, 128% & 116%. The current edition of The Gold Update points out how non-directional the BEGOS Markets have become per their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), suggestive that vaster and more volatile days await us: perhaps that stage is starting. The daily Price Oscillator study on the Swiss (1.1271) looks to confirm as negative by day's end thus negating the 1.1521 target. Already negative is the Euro's (1.3759) 8-hr. version.
09 May '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: There is more volatile pep back in the BEGOS Markets this morning vs. what we saw at this time yesterday. Again 'tis the EuroCurrencies leading the EDTR (Market Ranges) tracings as both the Euro (1.3782) and semi-pegged Swiss (1.1316) are lower after dovish Draghi comments. Gold (1292.5) appears firm, however Silver (19.265) did confirm the negative crossing at 00:00 PT on its 12-hr. MACD, setting up a Market Rhythm target of 18.785; the target of 20.245 on the daily MACD which still remains positively disposed was not (yet) achieved, but the Short is now the focus.
08 May '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: But for the EuroCurrencies, the BEGOS Markets have traced narrow trading ranges so far, less than 50% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges). No one market is changed by more than 0.3% either way with an unusually lite economic calendar left for the week. The Swiss (1.1446) and Oil (100.64) aforementioned targets are still in place. There is a potential downside 12-hr. MACD crossing for Silver (19.320) which shan't confirm a Market Rhythms trade until at least 12:00 PT. Meanwhile per our Market Values page Gold (1293.3) has only teased its valuation line; support 1284, resistance 1302.
07 May '14, 04:35 Pacific Time: Oil (100.34) is higher this morning, albeit our Market Rhythm target of 98.44 remains in tact given the negative disposition of the daily MACD. The Price Oscillator on the Swiss' (1.1440) daily bars is reinforcing, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm target of 1.1521. Over at Market Trends, Gold (1310.8) is seeing its "Baby Blues" curling back northward, (as are those for Silver [19.655]), but those for the Spoo (1868.00) are stuttering lower this morning for the first time in almost a month; price has crossed below its Market Magnet (a trading sell signal). Yellen before JEC at 07:00 PT.
06 May '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.1457) is matching its highest levels since mid-March; the Price Oscillator on the daily bars remains positive and thus the 1.521 Market Rhythm target is still in tact, (see 11 April comment). Silver (19.715) is continuing higher this morning; the positive disposition of the daily MACD has a Market Rhythm target of 20.245, (see yesterday's comment); at the Market Rhythms page there are currently 5 profitable studies listed there for Silver alone; at the Market Ranges page you can see Silver's EDTR curling back up, currently to 0.440 points per day. Trade Balance due at 05:30 PT.
05 May '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: Both Gold (1311.7) and Silver (19.650) confirmed positive MACD crossings on their daily time frames as of Friday's close. Thereto, Gold overnight has already hit its Market Rhythms target of 1312.9, although the 1320s near-term seem reachable given Gold's being the strongest (+0.8%) of the BEGOS Markets thus far in the session. Further upside impetus is supported by Gold's being poised to cross above its Market Values line, generally indicative of a trading buy. Silver's rhythm target is 20.245. The Bond (136^12) has reached a 10-month high. ISM Services at 07:00 PT.
02 May '14, 04:44 Pacific Time: Oil (99.84), Copper (3.0390) and Silver (19.170) are the EDTR (Market Ranges) leaders so far, with respective traces of 71%, 69% and 59%. The rest of the BEGOS bunch are sub-50% with the jobs data in the balance at 05:30 PT. A glance at our Market Trends page reveals a rather trendless picture for the markets in general, suggestive of a calm before a storm. At both Market Magnets and Market Values, no one market is excessively distant from either measure. The Spoo (1879.00) remains representative of an expensive S&P with a 28.7x p/e per our Valuation & Ranks page.
01 May '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: Gold (1284.3) has thus far traced 82% of its EDTR (Market Ranges), the most of the BEGOS Markets. But down the most is Oil (99.06, -0.6%) as it continues its drive toward our Market Rhythms target of 98.44. The Swiss (1.1383) is firm, the target there still 1.1521 for the time being as the daily Price Oscillator study remains positive. However for Silver (19.075), its daily MACD has become a bit whippy, turning negative such that, again, we see the high 18s as likely. The Spoo (1875.25) is quiet ahead of a fat data day of Claims, Inc/Spd, ISM, Construction and Vehicle sales.
30 Apr '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil (100.08) making session lows, our 98.44 Market Rhythms target still in force per the negative daily MACD crossing. Should Oil's EDTR (Market Ranges) be fully traced to the downside, we'd see 99.65 trade today. Further, Oil has crossed below its Market Values line, suggestive of lower levels. The Euro (1.3844) is by far the most volatile BEGOS Market so far, 147% of its EDTR already traced, however no one Market is presently changed by 1% either way, ahead of today's FOMC policy decision. At Market Trends, Gold's (1291.1) "Baby Blues" remain firm. Q1 GDP due at 05:30 PT.
29 Apr '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Silver (19.310) is off the most (-1.3%) of the BEGOS Markets this morning, albeit no one market had spanned more than 69% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) to this point of the session. Keep an eye on the daily MACD for Gold (1290.5): as described in the current Gold Update, that study is poised to cross positively, which upon confirmation suggests via our Market Rhythms a further 24 points to the upside, indeed a run to trading resistance at 1327 (Market Profiles). Oil's (101.39) "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are lower & price is nearing a Market Values downside cross.
28 Apr '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.1392) has topped 1.1400 for the first time in 2 weeks, the daily Price Oscillator study reinforcing itself on the positive side and thus keeping our 1.1521 Market Rhythms target intact. The Swiss along with the Euro (1.3865) are the only 2 BEGOS Markets thus far exceeding their EDTRs (Market Ranges) by 100% . Over at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for Oil (101.24) continue to descend as the 21-LinReg trend looks en route toward flipping from up to down, our daily MACD Market Rhythms target of 98.44 still operable. A big week of data and the FOMC begins.
25 Apr '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: A fairly straightforward morning thus far across the BEGOS spectrum. The Bond (134^30) has traded as high as 135^00, but the 12-hr. MoneyFlow study has reversed its stance from Long to Short, (i.e. take any LongSide profit rather than hold out for the original Market Rhythm target of 135^30 selected on 11 April). Both the Swiss (1.1352) daily Price Oscillator Long and Oil (101.34) daily MACD Short signals remain intact. Contract volume for both Silver (19.700) and Copper (3.1205) is moving from May into July. Copper's 12-hr. MoneyFlow is strong but not wise to chase.
24 Apr '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: This morning 'tis the precious metals back in leading the EDTRs (Market Ranges) in BEGOS. Silver (19.040) overnight traded down toward the high 18s Market Rhythms target mentioned last week (16 April comment), the EDTR being exceeded by 145%. Gold (1273.8) moved lower overnight, hitting our 1271 target (see 21 April), the EDTR being exceeded by 111%. Offsetting the lower precious metals is Copper (3.0890) up +1.1%, the most of the BEGOS Markets. Oil (101.82) confirmed a negative daily MACD crossing yesterday such that the Market Rhythms price target is 98.44.
23 Apr '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS volatility leaders so far, their EDTRs (Market Ranges) tracing beyond 90%. Of note, the Swiss (1.1353) still has its Market Rhythm target working for 1.1521 as long as the daily Price Oscillator study remains positive. The Bond (134^06) is near to reversing its positive stance on the 12-hr. MoneyFlow study, but for the present its 135^30 target is still on the table. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for Oil (101.62) have just started to crack. The Spoo's (1871.25) daily Price Oscillator study confirmed a Long signal yesterday, but we'd avoid it.
22 Apr '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Little excessive movement across the BEGOS spectrum to this point of the session, the Euro (1.3815) spanning the widest of the EDTRs (Market Ranges) thus far at 61%. Silver (19.495) is up the most (+0.3%) and Copper (3.0325) down the most (-0.5%). Gold (1291.3) is resilient, as is Silver, given both of their daily MACD studies having turned negative. None of the 8 BEGOS Markets are far from from their Market Markets, nor are the 5 primary BEGOS Markets from their Market Value measures. Again, the Spoo (1864.75) "ought" be quite lower per the S&P 500's MoneyFlow.
21 Apr '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Both of BEGOS' precious metal components -- Gold (1286.0) and Silver (19.350) -- have exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges); none of the other 6 components thus far have yet to trace more than 50%. As anticipated in the current Gold Update, Gold and Silver have confirmed negative crossings on their respective MACD daily studies such that using our Market Rhythms page data we'd expect near-term to see Gold 1271.0 and Silver 18.800. Our S&P 500 MoneyFlow page shows deficiencies in the Flow across all 3 time frames (week/month/quarter). LEI at 07:00 PT.
17 Apr '14, 04:44 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies and Copper (3.0380) are BEGOS' gainers this morning; the Swiss (1.1392) has already traced 84% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and we're maintaining the 1.1521 target as the Price Oscillator on the daily bars remains positive. Silver (19.670) has yet to confirm its daily MACD turning negative, so for the present our 20.880 target is still in play, albeit that particular Long signal is on a knife edge. Volume for Oil (May 103.68) is rolling into the June contract for which there is a -80¢ contango. Trading ceases after this session until Sunday evening.
16 Apr '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's wild ride in the metals and equities -- notably on the StateSide Tax Day anniversary of Gold's (1303.5) first material plunge of a year ago -- the BEGOS Markets are more normalized this morning. Leading the volatility is Oil (104.79) having thus far traced 95% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). Our near-term Silver (19.580) target of 20.880 would be negated today should price settle below 19.655 as the daily MACD would then go negative, a new Rhythm target in the high 18s. The Spoo's (1848.00) relief rally continues; housing & mfg data due pre-stocks opening.
15 Apr '14, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold (1305.0) is the BEGOS story this morning, off the most of the bunch (-1.6%) with 174% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) already traced. Again, we're viewing this week as Gold's first big test in 2014 as 'twas one year ago to the day that the bottom fell out. Still, the BEGOS signals mentioned two comments are intact, albeit there are some "quicker" interim contra-directional Rhythms in play for the moment. Save for the Spoo (1828.25) which hit our 1803.50 target yesterday, the 7 other BEGOS Markets are all lower thus far. CPI & Empire Index due at 05:30 PT.
14 Apr '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed but hardly narrow as the shortened trade week begins with a heavy econ calendar in the balance. We've Gold (1322.1) facing its first big test of the year as currently detailed in The Gold Update. Silver (19.735) is oddly lower despite Gold being up and the Spoo (1811.75) not being down, (albeit the latter hit our 1803.50 target soon after Sunday's opening); the white metal's EDTR (Market Ranges) tracing is already 112%. Oil (103.64) is the 2nd most volatile with 81% of its EDTR so far traced. The 4 other BEGOS targets mentioned prior remain in place.
11 Apr '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: 5 BEGOS trading signals were confirmed by yesterday's close: here they are: Long the Bond (134^16) per the 12hr. MoneyFlow, target 135^30; Long the Swiss (1.1416) per the daily Price Oscillator, target 1.1521; Long Gold (1322.7) per the daily MACD, target 1342.1; Long Silver per the daily MACD, target 20.880; and Short the Spoo (1818.75) per the daily Price Oscillator (yes it finally turned negative), target 1803.50. The latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are only at the neutral level and rolling over, suggestive of still lower levels for the S&P. PPI data due at 05:30 PT.
10 Apr '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: The Bond (133^24) hit our 133^28 target in the wee hours. Meanwhile, Oil (103.10) yesterday achieved the more aggressive 103.50 notion. Remember: the Market Rhythms page is updated daily (as are all of our markets pages) to display the best probabilities for profits from specific technical study time frames. Silver (20.210) has traced 120% of its EDTR (Market Ranges), is +1.9%, and is poised for a positive MACD crossing on the daily bars. Gold (1323.0) also may confirm the same MACD crossing by day's end. The Spoo's (1864.50) daily Price Oscillator is still positive (barely).
09 Apr '14, 04:34 Pacific Time: Oil (102.73) reached our initial 102.50 target yesterday; the more aggressive possibility seeing 103.50 is now further enhanced as the daily MACD has crossed positively. We're more keen on Silver's (19.760) own daily MACD nearing a positive cross; the white metal's EDTR at 94% leads the BEGOS Market Ranges so far in the session. Meanwhile, the daily Price Oscillator study on the Spoo (1846.50) is again on the cusp of going negative; its EDTR is the quietest at just 28%; note the FOMC's 19 March Minutes are due at 11:00 PT. Click on Earnings Season to follow those for Q1.
08 Apr '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies, Precious Metals and Energy are the BEGOS winners to this point of the session; the Bond (133^14) is very quiet with just a scant 27% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) traced thus far, although with the Spoo (1835.75) again lower, the Bond's 2hr. MoneyFlow's Market Rhythm target of 133^28 is quite viable. Meanwhile for Oil (101.42), its 12hr. EMA (13/89) study remains positive and thus its Market Rhythm target of 102.50 is still anticipated. Gold (1312.0) is the most volatile of the BEGOS bunch covering 108% of its EDTR; there is trading resistance at 1315.
07 Apr '14, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1851.00) continues it slide this morning following its wiping out the entirety of last week's gains on Friday; 60% of the Spoo's EDTR (Market Ranges) has thus far traced. Copper (3.0155) has already traced 99% of its EDTR, but is only off -0.3% whilst Silver (19.845) is down the most of the BEGOS Markets at -0.6% with 53% of its EDTR so far spanned. Our revised Bond (133^04) target is 133^28 per the Market Rhythm of the 2hr. MoneyFlow study. A fairly light Econ Data calendar this week, albeit Q1 Earnings Commences and the FOMC's 19 March Minutes are due Wed.
04 Apr '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: Ahead of the StateSide jobs data at the bottom of the next hour, the BEGOS Markets strength is in Gold (1293.0), Silver (19.965), Copper (3.0475) and Oil (101.16). The latter's 12hr. EMA study (13/89) has improved on the positive side, price having returned up to where the signal first triggered on 27 March; barring the EMA crossing negatively, 102.50 remains in our sights. Gold is buoyant this week, the 1290-1275 support area holding to this point despite the down parabolic flip on the weekly bars. The Bond's (132^02) 2hr. MoneyFlow is now positive, nixing our 131^09 target.
03 Apr '14, 04:31 Pacific Time: Silver (19.790) and Gold (1282.8) are BEGOS' EDTR (Market Ranges) leaders thus far, respectively at 76% and 69%). Those of other 6 BEGOS markets are all sub-40%. Silver reached our 20.075 goal yesterday; the Bond (132^00) is still in play vis-à-via its 2hr. MoneyFlow study for a Market Rhythm target of 131^09; and the 12hr. EMA study for Oil (99.22) remains positively disposed, but it may well cross negatively before reaching our target of at least 102.50. EuroEyes are on the ECB today: no policy change is expected, but new stimulus and QE is suggested as inevitable.
02 Apr '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: Oil (99.18) continues to move lower contra to the Market Rhythm signals noted in the 28 Mar comment; that said, those 4 measures are still positive for Oil, albeit they are weakening such the the 102.50 target can be nullified within a day or two. Within our expectations, the Bond (132^15) is down, the 131^09 target still intact, as is Silver higher (19.845) towards its target of 20.075. Of note: the Price Oscillator daily study on the Spoo (1879.50) has yet to turn negative. To this point of the session, markets are subdued, only Oil and Copper (3.0610) exceeding 50% of their EDTRs.
01 Apr '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Not unexpectedly, the weekly parabolic trend on Gold (1283.8) has provisionally flipped from Long to Short, albeit our focus is more on price holding the 1290-1275 support area, else the 1280-1240 zone. In addition to targeting for Oil (101.26) a run to at least 102.50, the Market Rhythm for the Bond (132^29) on the 2hr. MoneyFlow study is suggesting 131^09, whilst a positive crossing in the 12hr. MACD for Silver (19.740) is pointing to at least 20.075. Notably, Gold, Silver and the Bond are the session's EDTR (Market Ranges) so far, all three exceeding 60%.
31 Mar '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: Weak EuroZone inflation data has the EuroCurrencies up on expectations of further ECB stimulus in the wings, both the Euro (1.3799) and Swiss (1.1326) already exceeding their EDTRs by better than 100%. Gold (1296.3) is firm, however as discussed in the current Gold Update, should price trade sub-1286 this week, the weekly parabolic trend shall flip from Long to Short; 1304 and 1312 are trading resistors. Oil (101.31) is lower but that does not preclude our Market Rhythm expectations for higher levels as described in the prior comment. Chi PMI due at 06:45 PT.
28 Mar '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: We're bullish on Oil (101.75) near-term as four of its Market Rhythm measures (3 EMAs on the 6, 8 & 12-hr. time-frames, plus the 12-hr. Price Oscillator) all turned positive yesterday; on this run we minimally are expecting to see 102.50, if not 103.50. Meanwhile, volume in Gold (1295.1) has moved from April into the June contract; again depending where price settles today, our weekly parabolic study may well flip from Long to Short as early as Sunday (see tomorrow's Gold Update). The daily Price Oscillator study on the Spoo (1845.75) remains barely positive and still declining.
27 Mar '14, 04:38 Pacific Time: Gold (1295.3) is leading the BEGOS volatility to this point with 79% of its EDTR traded and is off the most at -0.8%. With 2 days left in the trading week, Gold likely need close above 1300, else it could commence next week in tripping the weekly parabolic to Short at Sunday's open. There is prior Market Profile support in the 1290-1275 range. The pending Price Oscillator sell signals for the Spoo (1846.25) and Swiss (1.1287) have yet to trigger, albeit we'd avoid the latter one. As for the Spoo, it may first make a relief rally today, its low coming after its high for the last 4 sessions.
26 Mar '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: Volatility is subdued this morning with just 2 BEGOS Markets -- Copper (2.9810) and Swiss (1.1294) -- having traced better than 50% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges). As noted yesterday, the latter's Price Oscillator study (daily bars) is nearing a sell signal (not yet confirmed); that for the Spoo (1865.25) is less so. Over at Market Values, Gold (1315.9) has penetrated below its valuation line adding to our notion that the yellow metal shall continue to correct/consolidate through here into next week. Durables due at 05:30 PT followed Thursday & Friday by a richer Econ Data flow.
25 Mar '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9905) is in the BEGOS driver's seat thus far: 'tis +1.6% with 80% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced. The EuroCurrencies are the weak links in BEGOS this morning as German Consumer Confidence declines; the StateSide number comes at 07:00 PT along with New Home Sales. The Dollar (80.200) is therefore higher, but so is Gold (1314.7) as it plays no currency favourites; still, its 21-day linreg trend is now negative, the "Baby Blues" in full drop (Market Trends). We note pending/unconfirmed Price Oscillator (daily) sell signals for the Spoo (1855.00) & Swiss (20.105).
24 Mar '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are thus far the most volatile of the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (1.3766) and Swiss (1.1292) both bettering 90% of their EDTRs (See Market Ranges). As expected via the current Gold Update, Gold (1324.3) is working lower as its "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) continue to drop, our sense being maintenance of the low 1300s over the next two weeks then leading to higher levels. Oil (99.95) at +0.4% is the strongest in BEGOS with Market Profile Resistors at 100.00, 100.60 and 100.80. StateSide Econ Data quiet today: China's PMI weaker; EuroZone PMIs mixed.
21 Mar '14, 04:44 Pacific Time: There was a period of time during yesterday's session when all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the red; presently they're all in the black. Gold (1340.1) is all but back to its Market Values line (1321.2) after exceeding it by better than 70 points last week. However at Market Trends, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are breaking down, suggesting price shan't rocket right back up through recent highs at 1380+ just yet; more of course in tomorrow's Gold Update. Copper (2.9730) meanwhile, per its Market Profile, is evident of finally consolidating (support 2.9500). No scheduled Econ Data today.
20 Mar '14, 19:20 Pacific Time: Special Announcement --- Silver's Market Profile bars have been refined from 10¢ increments ($500/cac) to 5¢ increments ($250/cac) toward giving more precise definition to the support/resistance apices in the 10-day trading structure of contract volume per price.
20 Mar '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: Post-Fed, the Dollar Index (80.405) is at its highest level in three weeks and essentially at a broad base of what for many months has often been prior support, (which in turn technically may now be viewed by analysts as resistance). Nonetheless, BEGOS volatility is being led by the EuroCurrencies, both the Euro (1.3764) and Swiss (1.1297) being lower and already exceeding their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). In fact, 7 of the BEGOS Markets are presently in the red, the exception being the Bond (132^05), albeit its Price Oscillator study (daily bars) has whipsawed back to negative.
19 Mar '14, 04:40 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, BEGOS' EuroCurrencies, Metals and Energy are mildly-to-moderately lower. Only the Spoo (1864.50) and Bond (133^04) are quietly higher, the latter confirming our prior comment's mention for the Price Oscillator turning positive. Silver (20.780) has 7 of its 24 Market Rhythms (across the various studies and time frames) turning negative, the white metal strongly represented at present at the Market Rhythms page. Gold's (1346.3) daily MACD confirmed as negative per yesterday's close, however at Market Profiles, you can see the 1330s appear supportive.
18 Mar '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: A fairly normal session so far in BEGOS, no one market exhibiting any trading extreme. Silver (21.010) is the weakest -0.8% with both Oil (98.17) and the Bond (133^03) on the opposite end of the spectrum +0.2%. The latter's Price Oscillator on the daily time frame is poised to confirm going positive by day's end, the Market Rhythm for that study having produced price furtherance of at least 2^13 points (or $2,406/cac) in 6 of the last 8 confirmed crossings. The weakening Economic Barometer has become twitchy and may respond positively to Housing Starts and CPI due at 05:30 PT.
17 Mar '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1841.75) is in the rare position of having traded the most of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) thus far in the session at 125% and the only BEGOS Market exceeding 100%, the rest having traced moderate ranges to this point. However, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are in free fall, suggesting still low levels despite a bounce today. Per the current Gold Update, Gold (1379.1) achieved 2 important milestones on Friday as it regained "Base Camp 1377" and briefly traded above its 300-day moving average. Silver's (21.410) 21-day linreg trend is further negative.
14 Mar '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are more settled to this point of the session than they've been of late. Curiously at this instant, all eight of the BEGOS bunch are in the black, Copper (2.9500) being up the most at +1.0%. The volume for the EuroCurrencies is rolling into their June contracts. In spite of Gold's (1373.2) stellar safe haven performance this week, Silver's (21.370) 21-day linreg trend has turned negative, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) moving sub-0 this morning. The Blues, of course, have been dropping for Copper and Oil (98.75), the Spoo (1841.00) now joining them.
13 Mar '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Gold's (1368.5) daily MACD popped to positive on yesterday's price surge; the associated Market Rhythm suggests a run to at least 1394, albeit Silver's (21.300) daily MACD remains negatively disposed. Dollar (79.340) weakness also reversed the Euro's (1.3954) 6-hour MACD to positive such that its downside Market Rhythm ought be abandoned, (but not reversed); the Euro is the most volatile BEGOS Market with 96% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far traced. This morning's open outcry for the Spoo (1871.50) marks the front month becoming June. Econ Data plentiful today.
12 Mar '14, 04:45 Pacific Time: The three metals represented by the letter "G" in the BEGOS acronym have been dominating the spectrum's volatility of late. First 'twas Copper (2.9370), which from the high of just 10 sessions ago is down more than -10%. Then Silver (20.995) had taken over the volatility mantle by this time yesterday. Now this morning 'tis Gold (1359.3) which has thus far traced 102% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) as it continues to be buoyed by its save haven role and speculation that China may turn to ease liquidity. Yet Gold's daily MACD remains negative as 'tis for Silver and Oil (98.62).
11 Mar '14, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (21.125) is the strongest thus far of the BEGOS bunch, +1.4% with 65% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) now traced. Nonetheless, its "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) continue to drop and its MACD on the daily time frame is growing more negative, as is also the case with both Gold (1349.1) and Oil (101.23). Meanwhile, the Euro (1.3842) could confirm its MACD on the 6-hour time frame tripping negative as soon as 06:00 PT: that study is listed on the Market Rhythms page as having then followed through by at least $1,100/cac in 7 of the last 10 confirmed crossings.
10 Mar '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Copper (3.0185) is again leading the BEGOS markets this session in volatility, 171% of the red metal's EDTR (see Market Ranges) traced so far with price off -2.1% and as much as 9% in just the last 2 weeks. Per the negative MACD daily crossings cited both here and in The Gold Update, Oil (101.22) is working lower, its EDTR ranking 2nd this morning at 107%, whilst Silver (20.970) has moved sub-21. Gold (1337.0) broke below Market Profile support (1334) overnight and then bounced; but its "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are slipping and its daily MACD has turned negative.
07 Mar '14, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are expectedly quiet ahead of the jobs data due later this morning -- with one exception: Copper (3.1475) has thus far traced 195% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) and is off -2.3% as global production for 2014 is expected to increase vs. a deficit in 2013. The Spoo (1877.50) per Market Values is again pushing toward an excessively high level (vis-à-vis its oscillator); its p/e of course remains very dear at 32.4x with a yield of just 1.988%; that compares to the 10-year T-Note's yield-to-maturity of 2.737%, in theory without the risk of principal loss.
06 Mar '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies, although just mildly higher, are the most volatile markets within BEGOS thus far, with better than 60% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) already traced, the BoE having just stood pat on its ongoing stimulus measures with the ECB in the balance. Oil (100.81) confirmed a negative crossing on the MACD at yesterday's close; opening this session at 101.04, we're look for a Market Rhythms move lower to 98.14 ($2,900/cac); such trade notion ought be on the May contract, (Apr First Notice is 24 Mar). Econ bits due today ahead of tomorrow's jobs data.
05 Mar '14, 04:50 Pacific Time: Silver (21.330) confirmed the negative crossing of its MACD on the daily bars at yesterday's close; opening this session at 21.210, the Market Rhythms target over the ensuing days/weeks is 20.370; moreover, Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over. Again as charted in the current Gold Update, both Gold (1335.6) and Oil (102.98) have their respective daily MACDs on the cusp of going negative. The BEGOS Markets in general after unwinding their Crimea concerns are narrow and either side of "unch" ahead of ADP data, ISM Services, & the Fed's Tan Tome.
04 Mar '14, 04:48 Pacific Time: Russian troops retreat as do the BEGOS Markets back to their approximate settles from last Friday. Silver's (21.195) MACD on the daily bars may confirm a negative crossing by day's end: 9 of the last 10 crossings have had price follow-through of at least 0.840 points ($4,200/cac). Gold (1333.5) has thus far traded 122% of its EDTR (Market Ranges), the most in BEGOS; the Swiss (1.1305) is the most subdued at just 41%. The Spoo (1863.75) suggests a +20 open for the S&P (1845.73). ISM data specific to New York due at 06:45 PT,otherwise the economic calendar is quiet.
03 Mar '14, 04:48 Pacific Time: Unlike last week, markets are finally turning to the crisis over Crimea, (see the final line in the current Gold Update). Gold (1345.9) is getting the "safe haven" bid, yet we remain alert for some near-term pullback, as well as for both Silver (21.470) and Oil (104.59) as the daily MACDs on all 3 markets are poised for negative crossovers. The Spoo at 1837.50 suggests a -21 open for the S&P (1859.45), the fourth worst points-wise in over 2 years, albeit first there is Personal Inc/Spd and core inflation data due at 05:30 PT. Later at 07:00 come ISM and Construction data in a busy week.
28 Feb '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are firmly higher this morning, both the Euro (1.3799) and Swiss (1.1346) tracing 140+% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The rest of the BEGOS bunch are subdued. Expective of a pullback in price, Gold (1328.6) still is mildly up for the week, albeit down from Wednesday's high of 1345; Gold's Market Magnet, now up to 1322, may finally be tapped today. Silver (21.310) is nearing a negative crossing on its daily MACD as is (per 26 Feb comment) Oil (102.28), such that commodities may be under pressure next week. GDP/PMI/Michigan/Home Sales due.
27 Feb '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: Ukraine-Russia concerns are woven through much of the media this morning, albeit the BEGOS markets appear unruffled as no EDTRs (Market Ranges) have as yet exceeded 100%. The most volatile thus far is Silver (21.370, +0.7% with 90% of its EDTR traced) as volume rolls into its May contract. Q4 Earnings Season, which started off promisingly, has but 2 days left to run: only 58% have improved y-o-y meaning that 42% have not bettered their bottom lines. The Spoo (1836.75) looks to pull negatively on the S&P (1845.16) at the open, the "live" p/e being 31.9x and yield 2.020%.
26 Feb '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: The BEGOS markets are more settled than they've been in recent mornings, with no excessive EDTRs (Market Ranges) traced as yet. Gold (1336.8) is off the most and just -0.4% at that. Its Market Magnet is now up to 1313. Per our 17 Feb comment (13-day EMA crossing above the 89-day EMA) -- the Market Rhythm for which suggested an 80% chance of Gold reaching 1342 -- that level was achieved yesterday. Oil's (102.33) MACD on the daily bars may cross negatively within a week's time; keep an eye too on its "Baby Blues" over at Market Trends for any sign of breakdown there.
25 Feb '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: Copper (3.2575) is "it" amongst BEGOS this morning, the red metal lower and having thus far traced 133% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) with volume moving toward the May contract. Also down are Silver (21.755) and Gold (1332.9), but with just half the volatility so far of Copper. The Swiss (1.1281) did achieve our 1.1300 notion yesterday (see 21 Feb comment) and is firm this morning along with the Euro (1.3753), albeit the latter's 8-hour MACD study remains negative. The Bond (133^03) too is getting a bid pre-home prices data at the expense of the Spoo (1842.00).
24 Feb '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update further stresses the plunge in the Econ Baro such that the Fed's tapering scheme may soon (mid-year) be terminated. Gold (1333.2) is off to a healthy start for the week, albeit we remain wary of it snapping back to its Market Magnet (1300 and rising). Gold along with Silver (22.055) and Copper (3.2410) are the 3 most volatile of the 8 BEGOS components thus far and the only 3 having already traced 100+% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Mind the Baro and note that this is the final week of Q4 Earnings Season, now with 59% better y-o-y.
21 Feb '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: Our Economic Barometer is in its worst "uninterrupted" dive in better than a year; 'tis worth a look due to its tendency to lead the S&P, albeit the Spoo (1840.25) is suggesting a mildly higher opening later this morning. For the Euro (1.3707), the Price Oscillator on the 4-hour series has indeed turned negative as has also now the MACD on the 8-hour series; the Market Rhythms in both cases suggest the 1.3620 area near-term. Because of the "peg", that target would counter our notion for the Swiss (1.1236) reaching 1.1300, yet these are not broad ranges either way.
20 Feb '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Gold (1313.1) and the Spoo (1819.25) continue lower this morning in retreat toward their Market Magnets. Today's session may produce for the Euro (1.3700) a negative stance for its Price Oscillator on the 4-hour series which per our Market Rhythms page has produced follow-through of 0.0080 points ($1,000/cac) in 8 of the last 10 confirmed changes of directional sign. Jobless Claims, CPI, Philly Fed & Leading Indicators will affect the already plunging Economic Barometer, which with the FOMC noting a willingness to raise rates sooner could continue the pall over the S&P.
19 Feb '14, 04:50 Pacific Time: Per our Market Magnets page you can see across the BEGOS spectrum those Markets that remain excessively distant from their Magnets. Our focus has been particularly on both Gold (1317.7) and the Spoo (1831.50), both of which are now lower, their respective rising Magnets being 1285 and 1787. Oil's March Contract (103.10) achieved the Market Rhythm target of 103.07. The Swiss (1.1256) is the narrowest of the BEGOS bunch thus far, which by our Market Ranges page has traded just 32% of its EDTR; moneyflow into the Swiss is suggestive of 1.1300+ near-term.
18 Feb '14, 04:51 Pacific Time: This extended session comes into the final turn with Gold (1315.8) now having turned lower as anticipated in the comment below & The Gold Update as price appears poised to snap back to its Market Magnet (1277 and rising) with Market Profile trading support at 1290. We then see Gold making a run as noted to at least 1342. The Spoo (1837.25) is right up into the overhead congestion created through most of January. Oil (101.13) is on the rise with the 103.07 Market Rhythm target (see 11 Feb comment) still intact; a position there in the March contract ought be rolled into April.
17 Feb '14, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS markets are very active thus far, which due to today's Stateside Holiday is a Sunday-Tuesday session. Copper (3.2815) & Silver (21.655) have traced better than 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The current edition of The Gold Update calls for some near-term pullback due to price (1327.1) being excessive above its Market Magnet; 'tis the case also for the Spoo (1839.50). Also therein detailed, Gold's 13-day EMA has crossed above the 89-day EMA, the Market Rhythm for which we've an 80% shot of Gold reaching 1342, even if there first is some pullback.
14 Feb '14, 04:49 Pacific Time: Gold (1316.1) just confirmed a positive EMA crossover (13 above 89) on its daily bars; per Market Rhythms: that suggests an run to at least 1342 over a period of weeks; (see tomorrow's Gold Update). Silver (21.010) is +2.7%, the most in BEGOS, with 153% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) now traced. Copper (3.2520) is the quietest in BEGOS tracing just 34% of its EDTR. The Spoo (1825.50) now has booked 8 straight "high after low" sessions, despite a rather severe recent drop in the Econ Baro that today adds Ex/Im prices, IndPrd/CapUtl and Michigan Sentiment.
13 Feb '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are the movers in BEGOS thus far: both the Euro (1.3665) and Swiss (1.1188) are higher by at least 0.5% and moreover have covered better than 125% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges). The Spoo (1809.00) achieved its 7th consecutive "high after low" yesterday and given the overhead resistance is not unexpectedly pointing to a -6 opening for the S&P at this writing. At Market Profiles you can see fresh resistance now built in from 1814-1818 and at Market Magnets that price is at a fairly extreme level. Bond (132^21) firm ahead of Retail Sales.
12 Feb '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: Yesterday the S&P (1819.75) rose sufficiently to end a 12-day stint of being technically "textbook oversold". Presently the Spoo (1814.25) is pointing to mildly down opening, which may gather steam as its low has preceded its high for six consecutive sessions and overhead levels from here appear quite resistive. The Euro (1.3568) & Swiss (1.1086) are the weakest of BEGOS thus far, the Euro having already traced 113% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). Copper (3.2460) is BEGOS' firmest market this morning. Gold (1291.9) appears excessively high per its Market Magnet.
11 Feb '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Gold (1284.1) is to this point of the session up the most (+0.7%) of the BEGOS Markets and has traced the most (73%) of the EDTRs (Market Ranges). Gold's Price Oscillator (12-hour bars) which confirmed turning positive (see 04 Feb comment) at 1259.3 suggest a near-term run to at least 1303.3 per that study's Market Rhythm so that remains in focus here. More broadly, Oil (100.20) confirmed a positive crossing on our daily EMA study (13 moving above 89) that suggests seeing at least 103.07 in the ensuing weeks if not days. Yellen on Congressional deck at 07:00 PT.
10 Feb '14, 04:52 Pacific Time: Silver (20.200) is leading the BEGOS Markets higher this morning by +1.1%. Silver on Friday has confirmed a positive cross on its MACD daily study, the Market Rhythm for which suggests a target of 20.770. The current Gold Update charts Silver as being price deficient to Gold (1273.7) which ranks 2nd to the upside this morning. Oil (99.40) after topping 100 on Friday for the first time this year is the weakest of the BEGOS bunch thus far and the most volatile having traced 80% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). There is no scheduled incoming Econ Baro data for today.
07 Feb '14, 04:45 Pacific Time: 'Tis an odd mix ahead of the StateSide jobs data: Gold (1262.1), the Spoo (1772.75) and Copper (3.2455) are all higher, expressing both optimism and pessimism. The other 5 BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed. Those two technical studies we've been following for Gold are still positive, however its Baby Blues (see Market Trends) continue to drop. We noted below two days ago the Bond's (132^27) being excessively high (then 134^08), but ahead of the pending data, all bets are off. Indeed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are currently priced quite close to their Market Magnets.
06 Feb '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: The positive dispositions have improved slightly for Gold (1263.6) on both those 12-hour Price Oscillator and daily MACD studies for which we've been anticipating a negative turn, and the Baby Blues (Market Trends) are only just lower this morning. Meanwhile, Silver (20.115) yesterday confirmed a buy signal on its 6-hour moneyflow study, the Market Rhythm there targeting at least 20.585 in the ensuing days. Oil (98.29) has thus far traced the most (81%) of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Earlier, the BOE held policy steady and the ECB's stance is imminent.
05 Feb '14, 04:45 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper (3.2060), the other 7 BEGOS markets to this point of the session have traced less than 50% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges). Gold (1258.8) still is maintaining just slightly positive dispositions on both the 12-hour Price Oscillator and daily MACD, but the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to decline, down from 86% 11 sessions ago to 53% this morning. A Gold settle today below 1249.6 would cross the daily MACD study to negative. The Bond (134^08) per Market Values appears excessively high. ADP & ISM data are pending.
04 Feb '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: Yesterday's post-ISM spike in the price of Gold (1252.9) to 1266.1 served to at least momentarily flip the Price Oscillator (12-hour study) to positive and keep the MACD (daily) just mildly positive. The Spoo (1739.25) looks poised to initiate a relief rally for the S&P which could be just enough to again set those two Gold studies negative. Thus far, Copper (3.2005) has traded the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 72% and is the strongest at +0.7%. Our focus remains on the two Gold studies as they generally provide ample Market Rhythm price follow-through.
03 Feb '14, 04:44 Pacific Time: Gold (1248.4) as noted in the current Gold Update has confirmed a negative cross on its 12-hour Price Oscillator study with another such cross on its daily MACD study pending by today's close, barring a strong up session. The Market Rhythms associated with both studies suggest levels of at least 27 points lower for Gold near-term. Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are also again notching lower this morning. Markets across the BEGOS spectrum are fairly stable to this point, lacking any notable volatility. Note the Earnings Season page this week: 100's of reports due.
31 Jan '14, 04:49 Pacific Time: This final day of the year's first month has both the Bond (133^25) and the Spoo (1769.75) as the session's most volatile BEGOS markets, both having traced better than 90% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges, especially that for the Spoo) so far. The former is higher as are both Gold (1248.0) and Silver (19.325); the other BEGOS components are lower. Gold's "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are beginning to come off a bit, albeit the 1241 support level in its Market Profile has essentially held its ground. Lots of incoming data today to work into the Econ Baro.
30 Jan '14, 04:45 Pacific Time: Gold's volume rolling from Feb into Apr (1256.1) with 1st notices tomorrow for delivery. The 4-hour MACD study is whippy, having completed two crossings without reaching its Market Rhythm follow-through target of at least 15 points. The Euro (1.3592) is the rangiest of the 8 BEGOS markets thus far with 98% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) already traced; the 8-hour MACD did confirm a negative cross yesterday, targeting 1.3556. Oil (97.83) and the Spoo (1776.25) are the only 2 of the BEGOS bunch in the black. At 05:30 PT comes the first look at Q4's GDP.
29 Jan '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: We've the FOMC today and the Spoo (1784.25) has already had a volatile night, tracing 94% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). Gold (1259.9) is in second place at 74% of its EDTR: the stance of its 4-hour MACD remains negative, but were it to cross to positive in the next few periods, 'twould likely nix the prior mention of a run down to 1238 and instead herald a run at least 15 points higher upon confirmation of such cross. The Euro (1.3634) may confirm a negative cross on its 8-hour MACD by 08:00 PT, its Market Rhythm making at least $1,100/cac 8 of the last 10 confirms.
28 Jan '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: Markets are more settled than at this time yesterday, the Spoo (1782.00) being the most volatile so far with 81% of its EDTR spanned (see Market Ranges). Gold (1255.3) looks poised to test underlying support at 1241, perhaps running to as low as 1238 per a negative MACD crossing on the 4-hour bars should the Market Rhythm play out for that study. Silver (19.775) yesterday confirmed its negative MACD cross in its daily bars. Unlike Gold, Silver's "Baby Blues" are in decline (Market Trends). Durables and Consumer Confidence pending on this day ahead of the Fed.
27 Jan '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: Readers of The Gold Update have noted our being on "crash watch" for the S&P over recent weeks, Friday perhaps the early stirrings of such. As noted in the prior comment, the Spoo (1791.75) is due for a bounce; at Friday's close price was 44 points below its Market Magnet. Gold (1263.7) is the most volatile BEGOS market of the session with 94% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) already traced. Oil (96.97) is the least volatile. Silver (19.850) is poised for a mild negative cross on its daily MACD currently over at Market Rhythms should price close today sub-19.985.
24 Jan '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: Gold (1270.3) has confirmed a trend reversal from Short to Long per the parabolics on the weekly bars depicted in The Gold Update. Therein, Gold has also established a close above the formidable downtrend line, such new stance to be updated in this Saturday's next edition. The still modest selling in the Spoo (1811.25) continues this morning, suggestive of a -11 opening for the S&P. The Spoo's low has come after its high for 5 consecutive sessions and thus a "dead cat bounce" ought be expected; still, the 12-hour MoneyFlow triggered a Short yesterday targeting 1796.
23 Jan '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: A very robust session thus far across the BEGOS Markets spectrum. Save for Oil (96.99) which per yesterday's MACD comment appears well on its way to that 98.10 target, all other 7 BEGOS components have traced better than 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The weak links are Copper (3.3080) and the Spoo (1832.75); the strong links are Silver (20.105), Gold (1247.9) and the Swiss (1.1069). Also per yesterday, The Euro's (1.3628) MACD on the 8-hour bars did cross positively, (target 1.3651); no negative cross as yet on Silver's daily MACD.
22 Jan '14, 04:46 Pacific Time: Per two comments prior, Oil (95.36) did have its MACD on the daily bars confirm a positive crossing at yesterday's settle. In swing with our Market Rhythms, we're looking for Oil to trade at least 2.90 points higher from the current session's opening price (95.20) to 98.10 ($2,900/cac) before that MACD next confirms a negative crossing. The BEGOS markets are mixed thus far, both Oil and Silver (19.895) up the most at +0.2% and Copper (3.3270) off the most at -0.5%. Signals pending: negative daily MACD cross on Silver; 8-hr positive MACD cross on Euro (1.3554).
21 Jan '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: From this session's Sunday evening opening through yesterday's StateSide holiday, the metals are BEGOS' most volatile markets, notably so Silver (19.870) which is -2.2% with 126% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) having thus far been traced. Beneath support at 20.100, Silver's Market Rhythm on its 4-hour Price Oscillator would confirm a Short if that study is still so disposed at 08:00 PT with a target from that time of 0.200 points ($1,000/cac). Gold (1244.2) is -0.7% but has not tested the 1241 support level as charted in The Gold Update. No scheduled Econ Data.
20 Jan '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: Gold (1254.0) came within 1 point last evening of flipping its weekly parabolic trend from Short to Long, (the price to so do at any point this week being 1262.9). The current edition of The Gold Update is chock-full of positive charts, including what looks to be an imminent break above a major year-over-year downtrend line. Oil (93.95) is off -0.4% to this point of the session; were it to right itself by Tue/Wed, we'd get that positive crossing on the MACD daily study (Market Rhythms). StateSide pits are closed today for our holiday, but GLOBEX rolls onward.
17 Jan '14, 04:42 Pacific Time: Markets are subdued ahead of data on housing, production, sentiment and a holiday weekend StateSide. March Oil (94.67) remains under our watch for the MACD positive crossing on the daily bars as soon as Tuesday's settle next week. The Euro (1.3588) saw its 12-hour MACD cross negatively yesterday at 12:00 PT suggesting a price per our Market Rhythms of 1.3533 or lower before reversing that particular study. Meanwhile at Market Trends, the best rising linreg "Baby Blues" are presently those for the Bond (131^07), Gold (1240.3) and Silver (20.055).
16 Jan '14, 04:49 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday, the Bond (130^21) is on its session's high and is modestly up the most (+0.3%) of the BEGOS markets; down the most (-0.7%) is Silver (20.040), but its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to rise as the mild 21-day linreg trend builds consistency. On the Market Magnets page you can see Gold (1238.5) nicely oscillating vis-à-vis its climbing magnet. Contract volume in Oil (94.31) is rolling from Feb to Mar; we're watching Oil's daily MACD for a positive cross in the next few days, its best Market Rhythm as noted on that page.
15 Jan '14, 04:37 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are down and have the most volatility in the session thus far, both the Euro (1.3605) and Swiss (1.1016) having traced over 85% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Gold (1237.5) and Silver (20.085) are both lower by better than -0.5%. Getting the bid to this point are Oil (93.08) and the Spoo (1837.25) in spite of Goldman's warning of a stock market crash, (in our eyes well overdue and by far more than just a correction of 10%). The Bond (130^24) is firm at its high for the day. On the table are the PPI, NY 's Empire Index and the Fed's Tan Tome.
14 Jan '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: The Bond (130^24) did confirm its Price Oscillator turning positive upon yesterday's daily settle: the Market Rhythm for price follow-through is a suggested 2^13 points ($2,400/cac), which from this session's open (131^01) targets 133^14 in the ensuing days/weeks, barring the signal first reversing to negative. Further, on the Bond page you can see price having penetrated up through its valuation line as well as the "Baby Blues" - the dots of 21-day linreg trend consistency - now turning positive. Precious metals are softer ahead of FedSpeak (Plosser & Fisher) and retail sales data.
13 Jan '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: Of the BEGOS markets, the Spoo (1832.50), Oil (91.90) and Copper (3.3240) are the most volatile and they're all down, the latter having already traced 127% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Gold (1246.0) is firm: the current edition of The Gold Update describes the renewed moneyflow into Gold, its linear regression trend having turned positive and primary trading support level having moved up to 1226. The Bond (130^20) by day's could confirm its Price Oscillator turning positive on the daily study, per Market Rhythms suggesting profitable follow-through of 2+ points.
10 Jan '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1840.00) is sporting a +8 start for the S&P, albeit between now and then comes the payroll data for December. The BEGOS Metals and Oil (92.61) are all higher as well, yet the Bond (129^10) is all but unchanged and has the narrowest EDTR (see Market Ranges) spanning to this point of the session of just 25%. Yesterday's mention of Gold's (1232.6) anticipated positive MACD cross on the 4-hour bars was confirmed overnight at 00:00 PT, a 12-point run from that period's opening price of 1233.9 suggesting 1245.9 is in Gold's Market Rhythm's offing.
09 Jan '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: Per the 03 January comment, Oil (92.87) yesterday hit our Market Rhythm target of 92.57. This morning we've Copper (3.3155) lower from 3.3635 per yesterday's comment about the breakdown in the "Baby Blues" which measure the consistency of trend. The red metal is far and away the most volatile of the BEGOS markets to this point of the session, already having traced 133% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). For Gold (1229.9) we're poised for a positive crossing by the 4-hour MACD, such Rhythm good for 12 points after 9 of the last 10 crosses.
08 Jan '14, 10:42 Pacific Time: Special Announcement --- In order to improve the profitable opportunities as updated daily on the Market Rhythms page, we have replaced the "ADX_DMI" technical study - which rarely would make the "Best Rhythms" list - with the Price Oscillator study ("PRC_OSC") effective today and as therein defined on the Market Rhythms page. The other three studies of MACD, EMA and MoneyFlow remain intact. Profitable Rhythms are the best trend friends.
08 Jan '14, 04:41 Pacific Time: On either the page for Market Trends or for Copper (3.3635) itself, the "Baby Blues" for the 21-day linreg trend have begun to break down, suggestive of still lower prices near-term; there is recently tested support at 3.3355, but should that break, at Market Profiles you can see further support at 3.3100. None of the 8 BEGOS markets are significantly up this morning; the EuroCurrencies (€-1.3591, SwF-1.0989) continue to work lower, as does Silver (19.565). The ADP employment data is due at 05:15 PT and the FOMC's 18 December "taper start" minutes at 11:00 PT.
07 Jan '14, 04:43 Pacific Time: We look for the eyes of Gold (1237.0) to smile upon the new Fed chief Yellen over the ensuing months/years. As noted in the current edition of The Gold Update, even with the "taper", the Fed is adding $3.5 billion per workday to its balance sheet. Presently for BEGOS, Silver (20.055) is down the most (-0.5%) and Oil (94.06) is up the most (+0.5%), although the negative disposition of its MACD on the daily bars is firm. The EuroCurrencies are split with pressure on the Swiss (1.1035) and 70% of its EDTR having traded as higher-yielding EuroBonds are getting the bid.
06 Jan '14, 04:45 Pacific Time: Gold (1237.2) overnight achieved the minimal target level of 1240 cited in our prior Gold Update (28 December) per the anticipated Market Rhythm playing out on the positive crossing of the MACD study for the daily bars. The current Gold Update (04 January) suggests just some short-term minor pullback per Gold's Market Magnet within an overall positive Market Profile, (supports at 1223/1211/1203). These are also as updated daily on our BEGOS Gold page. Copper (3.3395) is our most volatile market thus far, -0.4% with 83% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) traced.
03 Jan '14, 04:47 Pacific Time: As mentioned 2 comments ago, Oil (95.42) was due for an increase in its volatility per our Market Ranges page: yesterday was Oil's rangiest day since 03 September, encompassing almost triple its EDTR and triggering a Market Rhythms Short signal per price's MACD on the daily bars. Such rhythm has produced follow-through of at least 2.9 points ($2,900/contract) in 8 of the last 10 such confirmed MACD crossings, the suggestion this time 'round being a target of 92.57. The Spoo (1829.00) posted its 1st yearly opening down day since 2008 whilst Gold (1229.8) rose.
02 Jan '14, 04:39 Pacific Time: The new year is starting positively for the metals and negatively for the EuroCurrencies, debt and equities. Gold (1216.3) has so far traded 116% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and is up 0.9%; Silver (19.935) has traced 165% of its EDTR and is well up at +2.6%. Despite the EuroCurrencies year-end volatility, the "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) have not wavered from their now 9-day down tracks, the Euro (1.3667) and Swiss (1.1110) both under pressure this session. The Spoo (1838.00) suggests the first yearly down start for the S&P (-5 if opening now) since 2008.
31 Dec '13, 04:51 Pacific Time: Gold (1220.2) barely has the aforementioned MACD still positive for the daily bars time-frame. The year-end price to change that stance is coincidentally 1199.9 or lower: 1200 or better would keep the study positive in at least entering 2014. The most volatile of the BEGOS markets to this point of the session is Oil (98.73) having traced 70% of its EDTR: at the Market Ranges page you can see that Oil appears "due" for a pick up in its "ranginess" as we go into New Year. Silver (19.415) is presently -0.7%, off the most of BEGOS. See you next year. Be Safe & Be Wise.
30 Dec '13, 04:51 Pacific Time: After lauding in the current Gold Update the MACD (daily bars) turning positive for Gold (1203.5) without first having retested the year's low (1179), that market is off -0.8% in the session, already tracing 73% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), second only to Silver's (19.675) 116%. The Euro (1.3767) would confirm a Buy signal per its 12-hour MoneyFlow study at 12:00 PT today: at Market Rhythms you can see that signal has produced profit of at least $1,700 per contract in 5 of its last 6 confirmations. The Spoo (1837.75) is higher ahead of Pending Home Sales at 07:00.
27 Dec '13, 04:48 Pacific Time: Contrary yet again: not only are both the Euro (1.3840) and Swiss (1.1316) up better than 1% in the session, they've traded 303% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges); for the Euro 'tis a 2-year high on ECB talk that interest rates may need to be less restrained. Still, the EuroCurrencies "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are again lower in real-time this morning. The Dollar (80.015) is off in response to the higher EuroCurrency price levels, but Gold (1210.7) is not benefiting, its MACD still negatively disposed on the daily bars. Beyond energy inventories, the econ calendar is quiet.
26 Dec '13, 04:41 Pacific Time: Contrary to our prior comment's words as regards Copper (3.3790), it then put in its widest trading session since 03 May, trading as high as 3.4475 before dropping back to its present price; still these are Copper's highest levels since 26 August and in the new session 'tis the most changed (+0.3%) of the BEGOS Markets. As for Market Trend consistency, the "Baby Blues" are lower yet again today for the Euro (1.3694), Swiss (1.1176) and Gold (1204.7). The Spoo (1831.50) has already made a 4th consecutive "higher high" and is suggesting a +4 start for the S&P.
24 Dec '13, 04:41 Pacific Time: Copper (3.3245) is the most volatile of the BEGOS markets thus far, 81% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) having already traded, albeit that stat for the red metal has narrowed significantly of late to just 0.0347 per day; still Copper's "Baby Blues" have begun to roll over (Market Trends) suggestive of lower prices heading into year's end. Copper as well as Oil (99.07) are both +0.4%, the latter's EDTR ranking 2nd (55%) in the BEGOS bunch, the other 6 markets quite subdued in this abbreviated session. Durables and New Home Sales due at the usual times. Merry Christmas!
23 Dec '13, 04:41 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1821.25) is the only BEGOS market presently with a directional bias, up 7 points given an EDTR (Market Ranges) of 17 points. Gold (1197.2) is off 6 points within an EDTR of 26 points, albeit per the negative MACD crossing noted in the prior comment and as detailed in the current Gold Update, the year's low (1179) is likely to be tested in the ensuing days. In the current stack of "most profitable rhythms" (Market Rhythms), Gold's daily MACD shows the most profit ($21,540) per the last 10 crossings. At Market Trends the EuroCurrencies are weakening.
20 Dec '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Now sub-1200, Gold (1196.5) is actually the firmest, +0.8%, of the 8 BEGOS markets to this point of the session. However, the "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) for both Gold and Silver (19.300) in real time this morning have kinked down for the first time since 03 December. 'Tis too early to confirm this means their 21-day down trends are reinforcing, but significant overhead trading resistance exists for Gold at 1230-1235, (and less so for Silver at 19.500). Yesterday, Gold's MACD on the daily bars confirmed a negative cross implying a re-test of the year's low (1179).
19 Dec '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: The FOMC's latest policy statement is to further Dollar debasement at a $75bn/month pace. Presently in the new session, all 8 BEGOS markets are in the red, the most notable loser being Silver (19.305) -2.1% with 122% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) having traded so far. Gold (1204.2) is second worst, -1.1% with 114% of its EDTR traced. These two declines have not quite broken, at least as yet, the ascent of their "Baby Blues" (Market Trends). With all of BEGOS lower, and the Dollar (80.065) higher, we're eying the Bond (129^06) towards buyers later moving in.
18 Dec '13, 04:44 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Swiss Franc (1.1261) having already traded 98% of its EDTR (Market Ranges), the session is rightly subdued to this point ahead of an active market day: at 05:30 PT we've the release of 3-months worth of Housing Starts data, (Sep and Oct delayed since the US gov't shutdown). In the 11:00 hour comes the FOMC's policy announcement followed by Bernanke's final press conference thereto as Chairman. The "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) on the Bond (129^25) are curling up suggesting the 21-day down trend is abating. S&P Blues negative.
17 Dec '13, 04:42 Pacific Time: Following its widest one-day points trading range since 08 November, the Spoo (1781.50) is back to its narrow overnight ways, tracing just 28% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far. At Market Values, the Spoo is near to crossing below its valuation line. The EDTR leaders to this point are Silver (20.015, 60%) and both Gold (1238.4, 50%) and the Euro (1.3751, 50%). Oil's (97.83) contract volume is moving from the January contract into February today, (1st notice is next Monday). Copper (3.3235) appearing high per its Market Magnet oscillator. CPI on tap.
16 Dec '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1777.25) has already exhibited one of the widest overnight trading ranges in recent memory: 24 points from low to high which is equal to181% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The current price portends a +8 opening for the S&P, albeit there are first 6 incoming Econ Data items. The session's low thus far of 1754 is a testament to how wary if not outright nervous round-the-clock market participants have become about the S&P's extremely lofty levels. The other BEGOS components are higher, except for slight declines in both Gold (1232.7) and Silver (19.550).
13 Dec '13, 04:42 Pacific Time: Gold (1231.5) is back in recovery mode this morning having traded overnight as low as 1219.5. Although currently above 1228 support, Gold has confirmed a negative cross on its 8-hour MACD, the Market Rhythm for which reliably (9 of the last 10 crossings) has produced price follow-though of at least 11 points (would = 1216.5 for this case), the median being 21 points. Silver (19.630) is nearing a negative cross on its 12-hour MACD as is Copper (3.3030) on its 6-hour MACD. Per Market Ranges, Gold & Silver are notably picking up volatility within BEGOS.
12 Dec '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: The FinMedia have yet again flipped the Taper Toggle Switch from "Off" to "On" ahead of next Wednesday's FOMC policy decision; thus rightly Gold (1234.7) and Silver (19.730) are well down this session and are the most volatile of the 8 BEGOS market thus far. Trading support for Gold is at both 1228 and 1222 whilst Silver is close to its own at 19.700. Despite today's set back for the precious metals, their "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) continue to ascend whilst those for the Spoo -- the December contract (1779.75) rolling to March (1773.75) today -- continue to fall.
11 Dec '13, 04:41 Pacific Time: Gold (1257.1) achieved our minimum upside target of 1259.5 during yesterday's session. Next 'tis time to be mindful of the "Baby Blues" (Market Trends page) for both Gold and Silver (20.360) as their rising blue dots are suggestive of still higher levels over the ensuing days/weeks. Overnight, the most volatile of the BEGOS markets is thus far the Spoo (1803.75) with 71% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) already traced; that contract rolls into March at tomorrow's CME pit open. The Spoo remains distinctly high (Market Values) as does the S&P's p/e (Valuation & Index).
10 Dec '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: The confirmed upside crossing of the Daily MACD on Gold (1248.6) occurred per yesterday's settle; the minimum upside target we're seeking, (per Market Rhythms) is 20 points from this session's open (1239.5) to at least 1259.5 prior to the next downside cross; (median duration of this rhythm's last 10 signals is 21 trading days, yet targets can be reached far sooner than that as momentum typically builds much earlier than later). Oil (98.59) has already traded 100% of its EDTR (Market Ranges); the Spoo (1809.00) thus far is the least volatile at just 27% in BEGOS.
09 Dec '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: Per the latest Gold Update we're anticipating a positive cross of the MACD on the daily bars. Currently 1227.5, a settle today above 1231.2 would confirm such cross, (per our Market Rhythms you'll note that 9 of the last 10 crossings have followed through by at least 20 additional points, i.e. $2,000/contract). All 8 BEGOS markets are thus far subdued in the session per their EDTRs (Market Ranges), no one market as yet displaying any directional bias. Be mindful over the ensuing days of the "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) track for the Spoo (1806.75) as the uptrend wanes.
06 Dec '13, 04:38 Pacific Time: Markets are understandably "measured" ahead of the StateSide essentially "part-time jobs created" report due out in about an hour's time. One BEGOS exception is Copper (3.2450) having already traded 79% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and is up 0.8%. Per our 20 November comment, the Euro (1.3669) yesterday finally traded well up into this 1.36 handle, bringing to fruition a Market Rhythm goal there from 1.3500 to 1.3661 ($2,013/contract) per the 12-hour MoneyFlow study (Market Rhythms). 9 data items affect the Econ Baro today, which we'll update at 07:00 PT.
05 Dec '13, 04:42 Pacific Time: Gold (1232.5) and Silver (19.440) have retraced about 50% of their strong rallies from yesterday. Nonetheless, the former's MACD study on its daily bars is approaching a positive cross, which per our Market Rhythms page you can see has produced profitable follow-through of at least 20 points ($2,000/contract) in 9 of the last 10 crossings. Meanwhile, Silver's 12-hour MACD has already crossed back to positive. The Spoo (1792.00) remains well-above its Market Value, the Baby Blues in decline, yet per our S&P MoneyFlow the dough has been pouring into the Index.
04 Dec '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: 3 days remain in the week with better than 2 dozen incoming economic data items in the balance. The Spoo (1791.50) is poised for a 2-point S&P drop at the open, albeit with jobs and trade data on tap between now and then. Check out Market Magnets to see the Spoo having just crossed below its Magnet, suggestive of lower prices in the ensuing days, whilst at Market Trends we've the earliest indication of the Spoo's "Baby Blues" rolling over. Gold (1213.5) has traded the most (70%) of its EDTR (Market Ranges) so far, the Euro (1.3589) the least (35%) in the session.
03 Dec '13, 04:37 Pacific Time: The 8- and 12-hour MACD studies on Gold (1222.2) have both crossed to negative prior to our Market Rhythms hitting their "high probability" profit targets. The same study on 12-hour Silver (19.180) also is on target to fail as of 12:00 PT today. My stance is to take the Long losses here, rather than reverse to Short, in anticipation of the next positive cross. The Spoo 1793.50 is signaling a 6-point drop for the S&P at the open, the third such largest drop since 23 October. The Swiss Franc (1.1056) has already traded 83% of its EDTR (Market Ranges); Oil (94.04) just 25%.
02 Dec '13, 04:51 Pacific Time: The current Gold Update points out a "fat finger of support" in the 1246-1241 Market Profile and yet early in the new week price is presently 1234.9: in fact, all 8 BEGOS components are in the red at the moment. Nonetheless, the positive dispositions on both Gold's 8- and 12-hour MACDs are still intact as is that 12-hour study on Silver (19.685). Those 3 studies all remains in our Market Rhythms list for high probability for specified levels of profit. The Spoo (1803.00) is excessively high (See Market Values). A big week of incoming data to affect the Econ Baro.
29 Nov '13, 05:01 Pacific Time: Friday's session, (as commenced late Wednesday per GLOBEX), carries on with Gold (1251.2, +1.2%) and Silver (20.030, +1.9%) as the BEGOS Markets' largest gainers into this abbreviated StateSide conclusion to the week. The sole BEGOS market in the red this morning is the Bond (130^18) which today rolls into the March Contract with negative backwardation of -1.5 points, indicative of higher yield expectations. No incoming StateSide Econ Data scheduled today beyond the informal observation of Post-Thanksgiving shopping. EuroZone unemployment falls.
28 Nov '13, 04:49 Pacific Time: 'Tis Thanksgiving morning here StateSide, however the great BEGOS markets are hard at work. Both Gold (1242.3) & Silver (19.735) are +0.4%, their positive MACD crossings most recently discussed still intact. The EuroCurrencies have already traded better than 60% of their EDTRs (Market Ranges) whilst their "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) are now well on the rise. Oil (92.19) is the most subdued of the BEGOS bunch having traded just 23% of its EDTR. Thanks be given today for those amazing Market Rhythms: they're indeed quite the secret of the trading world (!)
27 Nov '13, 04:42 Pacific Time: Volume has now moved into February Gold (1251.3), plus both Silver (20.020) and Copper (3.2205) for March, to which the Bond (130^29) shall follow within the next few sessions. The upside cross in Silver's MACD for the 12-hour bars remains intact, whilst in the last two days we've now confirmed same for Gold on both its 12-hour and 8-hour bars. This ought bode for higher levels going into week's end for these markets which keep trading despite only a brief halt (about 5 hours) StateSide during Thursday's Thanksgiving, to then close early on Friday (10:15PT).
26 Nov '13, 04:39 Pacific Time: At 12:00 PT yesterday, Silver (20.020) confirmed a positive cross on its 12-hour MACD, which per our Market Rhythms has produced a profit of at least $1,300/cac (0.260 points) for 9 of the last 10 occurrences; in the offing we're looking for at least 20.365 to trade near-term on the March contract, (session's high already 20.335). Both Gold (1247.1) and Silver have the largest EDTR (Market Ranges) of the BEGOS Markets tracings thus far at 62% , the narrowest being the Spoo (32%) which presently suggests a +3 opening for the S&P, albeit after housing data.
25 Nov '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Back-burnering a nuclear threat has 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets backing off, the only two working higher being, of course, the Spoo (1806.75) and marginally the Bond (131^30), albeit the latter more on tapering, in turn also to perhaps be back-burnered as our Economic Barometer has been going straight down, (upon which is further elucidated in the current Gold Update). Given that our Thanksgiving is Thursday and thus Friday an abbreviated session for many traders, be wary 'tis also 1st Notice for the December Bond, Gold (1230.8), Silver (19.760) & Copper (3.2095).
22 Nov '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Clearly the stock market read yesterday's comment: it clicked on the Economic Barometer, saw it in full plunge, and thus equities rallied hard as the Fed's free dough ought continue unabated. Oil (95.20) nicely climbed higher per the Market Rhythm expectation following the positive cross of the MACD on the daily bars one week ago. Presently all 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, the 3 largest gainers being the Euro (1.3536), Swiss (1.1000) and Gold (1246.0) all +0.4%. At the Market Trends link you can see the Baby Blues now rising for Oil and the EuroCurrencies.
21 Nov '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: A bath for the BEGOS Markets yesterday as all 8 components dropped swiftly upon release of the Fed's 30 October meeting minutes in which tapering talk stirred. That of course was 3 weeks ago; since such time, you can see the Economic Barometer has made a firm turn to the South, suggesting that such talk of taper shall again be tempered. Still, Gold (1248.1) has broken below support sufficient that a retest of the year's low (1179) is not out of the question. Oil's (94.08) "Baby Blues" are mildly rising, the positive disposition of the MACD on the daily bars staying in tact.
20 Nov '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.3531) remains firm following its 12-hour MoneyFlow Market Rhythm noted two days ago being suggestive of a move into the 1.36s. Also, the MACD signal for Oil (94.07- Jan, 93.49-Dec) is still positively disposed on the daily bars, that Market Rhythm still seeking the 96.79 level in the balance. The Bond (132^08) did not move up as expected contra to yesterday's decline in the S&P, (Spoo 1785.25). Gold (1264.2) is near to confirming a negative MACD cross on the 8-hour bars: 'tis one of Gold's best Market Rhythms and would point toward the low 1250s.
19 Nov '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Oil's (92.63) volume has rolled in January, (December's 1st notice is this Friday); contango of some 60¢ raises that MACD target area into the 97s, but we'll stick with 96.79, (two comments ago). The Bond (133^03) crossed yesterday above both its Market Value and Market Magnet, suggesting a run to at least Market Profile resistance at 133^24; further the EDTR (Market Range) should today be an up day points to a high of 133^30. Success thereto ought be abetted by a declining stock market, the Spoo (1785.50) pointing momentarily to a -3 S&P open.
18 Nov '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: Welcome to S&P 1800 -- at least 'tis where the Spoo (1797.00) + fair value (2.89) would place the Index when equities open later this morning. Markets thus far are fairly subdued, the Swiss Franc (1.0962) having traveled the most (62% of its EDTR - see Market Ranges). The Euro (1.3517) is pushing the upper boundary of our 12-hour MoneyFlow Market Rhythm suggestive of the 1.36s. Oil (93.56) is just mildly off, albeit the fresh MACD positive cross on the daily bars remains in tact, and volume looks poised to roll into the January contract in the next day or so.
15 Nov '13, 04:53 Pacific Time: Oil's (93.87) daily bars finally confirmed a positive cross on the MACD: per our Market Rhythms, the target level for a 2.90 price gain is 96.79 over the ensuing days/weeks, barring the signal confirming a negative cross, (stop or reverse). The "Baby Blues" (Market Trends) for Oil have begun to curl northward. Again leading the BEGOS Markets overnight volatility parade is Copper (3.1575), spanning 90% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Euro (1.3458) is the least volatile. The Spoo (1791.25) looks to repeat with another record opening high for the S&P (+3).
14 Nov '13, 04:44 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1450) has lost better than 6% of its value in the last 3 weeks and overnight has already traded 92% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). The Spoo (1780.75) is poised to force another record high for the S&P (+2) at the open; EuroBourses are rising on weakening economic data suggesting renewed efforts for monetary stimulus. Gold (1280.8) has regained the top of the 1281-1271 support band; at Market Profiles you can see new trading support at the 1275 level with overhead trading resistance in the 1309-1317 zone. Yellen Fed Head confirmation hearing at 07:00 PT.
13 Nov '13, 04:42 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS markets show their 21-day LinReg trends as down, the 1 exception being the Spoo (1758.50) whose own "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in decline which ought lead to lower S&P 500 levels. Copper (3.1865) is already down 1.1% having traded 95% of its EDTR (Market Ranges). Oil (93.28) has yet to make a confirmed positive cross on the daily MACD study so we continue to wait for that Market Rhythm opportunity. Gold (1274.2), yesterday violating the lower bound of the key 1281-1271 support band, is back to banging about within it.
12 Nov '13, 04:55 Pacific Time: Oil (94.68) would confirm that anticipated positive cross on its daily MACD today if it settles above 95.20. Again, 8 of the last 10 crossings have traveled further by at least 2.9 points (see Market Rhythms), which at $1,000/contract is $2,900. Gold (1281.3) continues to dance upon the 1281-1271 support band. Renewed "talk of taper" is in the air: debasement of a less amount is still debasement; (so is that of a greater amount). Silver (21.180) is down the most so far (-0.7%) of the BEGOS markets and the rangiest (63% of its EDTR). No scheduled Econ Data today.
11 Nov '13, 04:42 Pacific Time: The Gold Update again discussed the 1281-1271 support band, that it would be tested in this new week: currently 1384.7, the session's low thus far is 1278.1. Silver (21.380) is off the most (-0.6%) of the BEGOS Markets this morning whilst the Euro (1.3397) is up the most (+0.2%). Oil (94.22), which has been subdued in many an overnight session of late, is one of the more volatile of BEGOS to this point of the session, having traded 52% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). We continue to watch for Oil's next positive cross of its MACD (daily bars) for a profitable play.
08 Nov '13, 04:49 Pacific Time: Another "on hold" morning for BEGOS in anticipation of the payrolls (or lack thereof) release at 05:30PT. Gold (1307.6) traded as low as 1296.0 yesterday and per the Market Rhythm of the current negative MACD cross (daily bars) that was confirmed on Tuesday, 'twould suggest we still see at least 1292.3 prior to the next positive cross. Per our Spoo (1747.75) page or Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to roll over such that the S&P ought breakdown both more significantly and on balance for more days than just what we saw yesterday. "Live" p/e: 33.6x.
07 Nov '13, 04:55 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of the ECB rate announcement which is imminent as we type. The negative MACD cross on the daily bars for Gold (1315.1) is still in tact. We remain in wait for the next positive cross on the same study for Oil (95.04), as well as on the 12-hour bars for the Bond (133^07). The ECB just cut its benchmark rate to 0.25%, (record low), setting off volatility and lower levels in the EuroCurrencies. Both Gold and Oil remain the least changed in BEGOS. Treasuries now up on ECB. Stateside we've the first view of Q3 GDP at 05:30 PT.
06 Nov '13, 04:44 Pacific Time: Gold (1317.5) confirmed a negative cross of its MACD on the daily bars per yesterday's settle. Per that study's Market Rhythm, we looking for 1292.3 to trade prior to that MACD's confirming a positive cross. Over at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" have begun rolling down for the Spoo (1765.50), the blue dots now indicative of lower levels ahead for the the S&P. Silver (21.935) is the most volatile market to this point of the session and Oil (94.17) the least volatile. At 07:00 PT comes the delayed LEI report for September; tomorrow the ECB meets on monetary policy.
05 Nov '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Whilst not closing low enough yesterday to trip the MACD to negative, Gold (1312.4) will do so today should it settle below 1324.3. Again, this is on the daily bars and if the down-cross occurs, we'd look for at least 20 points of further follow-through (see Market Rhythms) from the Wednesday opening price (15:00 PT later today), prior to the next confirmed up-cross. From better than a week ago, we're patiently awaiting Oil's (94.31) next MACD up-cross on its own daily bars. The eight BEGOS markets to this point are mixed, lacking volatile range travel and disposition.
04 Nov '13, 04:44 Pacific Time: The current edition of The Gold Update describes our notion for the yellow metal moving only briefly sub-1300, protected by trading support, (per prior a Market Profile), in the 1281-1271 band. One driver here is that a negative MACD cross per the daily bars appears nigh: were Gold (1317.0) to settle today below 1309.1, that cross would be confirmed. Such crosses either up or down have been reliably producing follow-through of at least 20 points. (Example: 1309 - 20 = 1289). Copper (3.2780) off the most so far (-0.6%), 86% of EDTR (Market Ranges) now traded.
01 Nov '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: Gold (1317.3) is smack upon its Market Profile trading support apex as was cited in The Gold Update: having reached far afield above its Market Magnet, the anticipated retrenchment has been achieved. Moreover per Market Values, Gold is momentarily poised at its valuation line, as is the Euro (1.3521). The latter having confirmed a negative cross of its MACD on the daily bars per yesterday's close, we looking for a Market Rhythm run to at least as low as 1.3444 within the duration of this negative cross. Click on "Valuation & Ranks" to see the p/e for the S&P (!)
31 Oct '13, 04:50 Pacific Time: Q3 Earnings Season: past its mid-point, of the 1,208 firms having reported, 60% have bettered their year-over-year quarterly results; thus 40% have not. Does that justify the stock market being up 25% y-o-y? Yesterday's anticipated "sell-the FOMC-news" asserted itself, albeit the Spoo (1758.00) has traded the narrowest range this session of the BEGOS markets. A weaker Euro (1.3658) has traded 112% of tis EDTR and is en route to confirm a negative MACD cross on the daily bars: 7 of the last 10 crosses have produced per contract profits of at least $1,825.
30 Oct '13, 04:53 Pacific Time: Today's FOMC press release ought state rates as unchanged and, by the declining look of our Economic Barometer, tapering notions at bay. (There is no press conference this time 'round). The S&P 500 is so significantly overbought at this juncture, in having already digested those assumptions, 'tis well overdue for a brisk selloff and 'twould not be untoward for the FOMC announcement to be the trigger. Overnight, Copper (3.3130) has traded 94% of its EDTR and is +1.0%. We're on watch for the Bond to trade sub-134 and for the next MACD up cross on Oil's daily bars.
29 Oct '13, 04:50 Pacific Time: Dollar strength has the both the EuroCurrencies and the precious metals down this morning. As suggested in the latest Gold Update, Gold (1344.6) is retracing back down toward its Market Magnet as is Silver (22.430). Market Profiles indicate trading support for Gold at 1343/1333/1317 and for Silver at 21.900. Gold so far has traded the widest of the BEGOS EDTRs (Market Ranges) and Oil the narrowest. The Bond (135^04) has confirmed a negative cross on its 12-hour MACD, the Market Rhythm thereto suggesting a near-term target of 133^28. Big data day.
28 Oct '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: The BEGOS markets are off to a narrow start for the week, the largest up mover thus far being Copper (3.2740, +0.2% and tracing 57% of its EDTR) and the largest down mover being Oil (97.62, -0.3% and tracing just 30% of its EDTR). We remain on watch for Oil's next positive MACD crossing on the daily bars. The Bond's (135^06) MACD on its 12-hour bars is approaching a negative crossover, such Market Rhythm having produced a follow-through profit of at least $1,100 per contract in 9 of the last 10 confirmed crossings. Busy Econ Data, FOMC Policy week.
25 Oct '13, 04:52 Pacific Time: Per our Oil (97.41) page, price looks to be starting to gain some traction after having descended into support (98-to-94), trading yesterday as low as 95.95. Vis-à-vis its Market Magnet, price has just begun to curl up, having built new support that is now evident in its Market Profile. More broadly, the MACD remains negatively disposed on the daily bars, which at the foot of the Oil page are displayed as its best Market Rhythm per this writing. Our metals are all down to this point of the session, yet as anticipated, Gold's (1338.4) 21-day linreg trend has turned positive.
24 Oct '13, 04:51 Pacific Time: Silver's (22.730) 21-day linear regression trend has turned positive, its "Baby Blues" having crossed above their 0% axis line at Market Trends. That for Gold (1341.5) looks poised to follow, which at +0.8% is up the most for BEGOS this session. We're still watching for Oil (97.08) to base in the 98-94 support zone, after which as noted, we're looking for its MACD on the daily bars to cross positive; price remains low per Market Values. Conversely, the Euro (1.3807) is high per its Market Value, currently trading at its most expensive level vs. the Dollar in almost a year.
23 Oct '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Gold (1331.5) traded yesterday as high as 1344, thus reaching the MACD daily bars Market Rhythm target of 1336.5, and per Market Values has penetrated the smooth valuation line to the upside, which suggests still higher trade levels ahead. Oil (96.93) per its Market Values graphic has moved down into a band of support spanning from 98-to-94: price is low per both that graphic's oscillator and Market Magnet; the Market Rhythm up signal we're watching for Oil is on its MACD daily bars, 8 of the last 10 crosses having offered profit of at least $2,900/contract.
22 Oct '13, 04:46 Pacific Time: 18 days in arrears brings the September Payrolls data and 21 days so the August Construction Spending. Those reports will effect the Economic Barometer, (after 07:00 PT). Gold's (1314.0) MACD positive cross for the daily bars has yet to gain traction toward the suggested target of 1336.5. Markets are very narrow ahead of the Econ Data: Copper (3.3165) is the widest ranging BEGOS market thus far, its EDTR (Market Ranges) just 43%. Moreover pre-data, the Spoo has spanned just 16% of its EDTR. Oil down to 99.31, above our support in the 98s.
21 Oct '13, 04:39 Pacific Time: Silver (22.145) is the strongest BEGOS market of the session thus far, +0.9%. A trade above the 08 October high of 22.525 would open the momentum door for a run up into the 23s. Oil (100.29) is the weakest BEGOS market of the session thus far, -0.9%. As pointed out in our 16 October comment, Oil appears well-supported in the upper 98s and its oscillator (see Market Values) is typically as low as its gets below valuation. Gold (1316.8) confirmed Friday a positive MACD cross (daily bars) and as per The Gold Update points to a a near-term run to 1336.5.
18 Oct '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: None of the tardy Economic Barometer data have yet to be released by the Federal gov't; they are targeting 22 October (Tue) for the September payrolls report. (The Econ Baro currently lacks 22 components). Overnight markets are inconsistent and messy: Swiss, Gold and Silver are lower; Euro, Copper, Oil, Spoo and Bond are higher, the latter the most volatile thus far having traded 96% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges wherein all 8 BEGOS markets' EDTRs are turning up). At Market Magnets: the Euro, Swiss, Gold and Silver have all crossed to the positive side.
17 Oct '13, 04:41 Pacific Time: Washington is to return to work "immediately": keep an eye on the Economic Barometer which at this writing lacks 18 components of as yet "unreported" data across 11 categories. Such missing Econ Data as released over the ensuing days ought certainly cause abrupt markets disruptions. Silver (21.910) has achieved its 4-hour MACD positive cross target (21.625) for the 0.380 point profit ($1,900/contract). Gold has regained the 1300s (1315.3) and the EuroCurrencies are strong. Bond (133^17) is up; Copper (3.2770), Oil (101.70) and the Spoo (1711.25) lower.
16 Oct '13, 04:51 Pacific Time: Per the 14th's commentary, Silver's (21.235) MACD on the 4-hour study finally crossed positive in the new session late yesterday. The Market Rhythm entry price for this Long move is 21.270, (thus at this writing 'tis 3.5¢ in the red), the target profit level of $1,900 per contract (0.380 points from entry) being 21.625. Oil (101.22), the volume for which likely shall roll from the Nov. contract into Dec. over the next couple of days, looks well-supported in the high 98s, and as noted yesterday, price per the Market Values page is already typically as low below valuation as it gets.
15 Oct '13, 04:44 Pacific Time: Silver (20.680), the Euro (1.3496) and Swiss (1.0919) have already exceeded their EDTR (Market Ranges). The white metal is down 2.7%, whilst Gold (1260.4) is off 1.0%. Of the 8 BEGOS markets, only 2 are barely in the black: the Bond (132^08) and Spoo (1705.50). Keep an eye on Oil (101.71) per the oscillator (Market Values) it appears low relative to valuation, albeit the rule of thumb is not to leap long until price penetrates up through the smooth line; price is right at trading support levels (see Market Profiles); and its Baby Blues (Market Trends) are in ascent.
14 Oct '13, 04:48 Pacific Time: Gold (1282) gapped up to begin the new week whilst the Spoo (1687) gapped down. Silver (21.550) is up the most (1.0%) of the BEGOS markets: the Market Rhythm to watch there is its 4-hour MACD study which looks poised to cross to the positive side should the session's uptrend continue. 9 of the last 10 such crossings (both up and down) have followed through to at least $1,900 of profit per contract (0.380 points upon the 4-hour bar's having confirmed a crossing of the MACD lines). Debt Default D-Day is Thursday and per The Gold Update the ceiling will rise.
11 Oct '13, 04:50 Pacific Time: The S&P (1693) yesterday returned to where is had been 1 week earlier. The Spoo itself (1687.00) remains in a 21-day linreg downtrend, as do Gold (1286.5), Silver (21.550) and Oil (101.82). The Spoo's Market Profile trading resistance at 1677 is now trading support. Gold's profile has various resistors up to 1340. At Market Trends, the Baby Blues are rolling over to the downside for the Bond, Euro and Swiss. The week will close with 10 key economic reports missing month-to-date. Our Q3 Earnings Season count, (albeit just started), has 40% missing estimates.
10 Oct '13, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold (1303) has now spent two sessions hopping back and forth across the 1300 level. In anticipation of a Daily MACD positive crossing, today's GLOBEX requires a settle at or above 1318.2. At our Market Trends page, Gold's Baby Blues continue to rise, indicative of the 21-day linreg downtrend abating. Meanwhile, those for the Spoo (1664.75) continue to fall this morning, despite price's being up 1.0% with 113% of its EDTR (Market Range) having already traded, the most thus far of the BEGOS Markets. But there is that overhead resistance in the Market Profile.
09 Oct '13, 04:41 Pacific Time: The BEGOS EuroCurrencies, both down, are the hot trade thus far in the session, arguably in response to Janet Yellen's being put up later today for Fed Chair. The Swiss (1.0991) has traded 148% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) whilst the Euro (1.3515) has traded 133%. The BEGOS metals are all lower, as is Oil (130.36). The Bond (133^13) is "unch" and the Spoo (1655.75) is up 0.3%. A positive upside cross for Gold's Daily MACD has yet to occur, but 'twould confirm if Gold (1311.6) settles its GLOBEX close later today better than 1315.5.
08 Oct '13, 04:49 Pacific Time: Q3 Earnings Season (per link at left) is underway. Over the next six weeks we'll collect results for some 2000 top-tier companies, including S&P 500 constituents, to determine if Earnings on balance are actually improving, or simply beating estimates. Overnight, the Spoo's (1668) Baby Blues have confirmed the 21-day linreg trend for the S&P as now negative. Such trend for both Gold (1321) and Silver (22.305) is becoming less negative as their "Blues" continue to rise. Note Gold's Daily MACD is near crossing to positive and our per Market Rhythms page its profit reliability.
07 Oct '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: The Spoo (1669), weakest of the BEGOS markets so far this session, is down the most in an overnight move since 27 August, looks poised to test the low (1664) of last week, and per our Market Profiles page is trading sub the resistance levels of 1677 and 1684. Silver (21.920) is the session's strongest market thus far, up 0.8% yet having so far traded just 40% of its EDTR (Market Range). Gold (1617) is at its session high, its Baby Blues (Market Trends) continuing to rise whilst those of the Spoo decline. The Bond, Euro and Swiss are all higher; Copper and Oil lower.
04 Oct '13, 04:49 Pacific Time: Jobless claims were reported yesterday but payrolls today shan't be. The daily posting of the Economic Barometer has already be made, itemizing the missing gov't reports. At Market Values, the oscillator for the Euro suggests 'tis well-high above its BEGOS valuation. Also at that page, the Spoo value is pointing to further decline for the S&P, as are the Spoo's Baby Blues at the Market Trends page. The Swiss Franc has the widest trading range so far this session (84% of its EDTR), yet Silver is sporting the narrowest at just 19%. Gold at 1315.70 remains sub-1325 resistance.
03 Oct '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Market Ranges remain narrow considering the time of year: to this point, Oil (103.90) has traded just 27% of its "expected daily trading range" (EDTR). The metals are whippy, yesterday regaining much of Tuesday's losses, Copper (3.3030) crossing back above its Market Magnet. Presently, 6 of the 8 BEGOS markets are down overnight, the exceptions being the Euro (1.3608) and Swiss (1.1097), the latter at its highest level since April 2012. Sans gov't, jobless claims/payroll report -- unless leaked -- appear on hold. Gold (1307.6): support 1290, resistance 1325.
02 Oct '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: Minutes after completing the final bit of yesterday's comment, Gold (1294.1) was yet again roiled by selling, although not sufficiently so to turn the up curl in the Baby Blues (Market Trends page) back down. But Gold need recover the 1300s today, else the 21-day linear regression downtrend -- which has been becoming "less down" -- shall be re-enforced. Copper (3.2690) crossed below its Market Magnet yesterday, suggesting still lower levels ahead, which makes sense as the Baby Blues for Oil (120.05) and the Spoo (1681.50) continue to descend. ECB & ADP on tap.
01 Oct '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Swiss Franc (1.1064 and having already traded 127% of its EDTR -- see Market Ranges), the BEGOS markets so far this session are compressed. This being Autumn and the 1st day of Q4, we'd expect more robust activity ahead of the stock market's opening, however the US govt.'s closing seems to have markets somewhat stunned. Gold (1327) is clinging to the lower edge of its Market Profile support (1325), however per its Baby Blues rising (see Market Trends), we look for support to basically hold, then the 1360s to trade before week's end.
30 Sep '13, 04:43 Pacific Time: Gold sits right where it settled Friday at 1336, after gapping up 7 points to open Sunday evening at 1343 and in 1 minute reach 1353. Simultaneously, the Spoo gapped down from its Friday settle of 1685 to 1675, but unlike Gold's retracing down, the Spoo at 1673 has not retraced back up. Silver's upside Market Rhythms signals (see 26 Sep comment) remain in play, Copper having already met its target (see 27 Sep), and Gold, despite termination of its MoneyFlow signal, still reached its target at today's open. The Market Trends "curls" in the Gold Update are extending.
27 Sep '13, 04:38 Pacific Time: Based on those noted MoneyFlow Market Rhythms, Copper traded up through the 3.3125 target and is now at 3.3215. Neither Silver (21.820) nor Gold (1334.00) have achieved their like targets, the latter's MoneyFlow signal having run its course. However: both markets are reversing their losses from yesterday, and remain firm near-term. More importantly, go to our Market Trends page and look at Silver, Gold and the Spoo. The "Baby Blues" for the 2 metals are just starting to curl back up whilst those for the Spoo are starting to rollover pointing to a lower S&P ahead.
26 Sep '13, 04:48 Pacific Time: Per the prior comment, Gold indeed made the run yesterday to as high as 1339 and has since tapped 1340 overnight. Additional support has been built into Gold's Market Profile. Meanwhile, positive crossovers per our Market Rhythms based on 2-hour MoneyFlows have thus far boded well for Gold (1337.50), Silver (22.015) and Copper (3.3000), suggesting near-term target prices respectively of 1350.4, 22.235 and 3.3125. Also given a positive MACD cross on the 6-hour study for Silver, the suggestion there is to reach further to 22.755. Q2 GDP finalized today. (Note: Closing price data error resolved on Swiss, Silver & Copper pages.)
25 Sep '13, 04:54 Pacific Time: The Bond is on its intra-session high at 133^11, as noted yesterday crossing above its valuation line (Market Values). Overnight BEGOS markets' ranginess thus far is subdued. At Market Ranges, the most increased "expected daily trading ranges" (EDTRs) are for Oil, its EDTR at 2.12 points, Silver's at 0.97 points, and Gold's at 31 points. The latter's low to this point (1319.4), if firm above Market Profile support spanning the 1318-1314 range, suggests the 1330s today, and were the EDTR to play out, even the 1340s. Spoo mildly down ahead of Durable Orders.
24 Sep '13, 04:56 Pacific Time: Oil, since yesterday's comment, has worked as low as 103.00; its 8-hour MACD study is on the Market Rhythms page and continues to be listed on Oil's page itself as the best of its own Market Rhythms. The Bond (132^13) is presently crossing above its valuation line (see Market Values) for the first time time 10 May, suggestive of further upside movement into the 133s-134s, especially should the Spoo (1691) continue to work lower. In fact, the Bond is the one market in the BEGOS complex that is up at this writing, the other 7 all trading below yesterday's final settles.
23 Sep '13, 04:36 Pacific Time: A very quiet start to the week across the BEGOS spectrum this morning: not 1 of our 8 markets is momentarily more than 0.3% away from its Friday Settle. Gold (1323) is firm and holding the support discussed in The Gold Update. Oil (104.85) looks to trade sub-104, its Baby Blues (see Market Ranges) in decline as well as its 8-hour MACD study suggesting downside travel from its crossing negative at 105.65 to at least as low as 103.75, (9 of such last 10 crossings up or down having minimally traveled that distance of 1.90). No "scheduled" incoming Econ Data for today.
20 Sep '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Silver has traded 70% of its EDTR (Market Ranges) thus far, the most of the BEGOS Markets; 'tis currently off 1.2% at 22.815; 22.370 may well trade before day's end. No scheduled incoming Econ Data today; the Spoo is essentially "unch" having traded just 28% of its EDTR, post-Fed fatigue slowing activity. At Market Values, the Spoo's valuation line is declining whilst price per the oscillator measure is starting to appear excessively high; the S&P itself remains textbook well-overbought. At Market Profiles, Gold's support/resistance apices are ever so stark.
19 Sep '13, 04:57 Pacific Time: Trading pre-Fed as low as 1292 yesterday, Gold (1367) has since traded as high as 1375. More on that in this Saturday's Gold Update wherein we'll resume the notions of Gold's negotiating the 1400s. The Spoo (1723) has our "live" p/e for the S&P at 29.1x: the last time we've it that high was in April 2002, after which the stock market declined better than 26% over the ensuing 6 months. (Beware the market that rises given no real earnings growth, a declining Econ Baro and a contra-directional moneyflow). Traders: see Silver's own page and/or its chart at Market Ranges.
18 Sep '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Oil traded sub-105 per yesterday's comment on the 8-hour MACD and has since rebounded from 104.92, presently at 105.99. Today is "Fed" day: Gold is right at 1300, the Spoo at 1700 and the Bond unchanged. Our Economic Barometer (menu at left) is in swift decline: the Fed need be very careful toward debasing the Dollar at a slower pace should the economy just be peaking. The well-overbought S&P is out-of-sorts via its MoneyFlow (menu) and is thus very susceptible to rapidly reacting negatively in response to the Fed and/or further Econ Baro weakness.
17 Sep '13, 04:50 Pacific Time: Oil again lower this morning (106.27), crossing yesterday below both its Market Value line and Market Magnet. Its best Market Rhythm currently is the 8-hour MACD, flipping Short at 106.92 a week ago, suggesting sub-105. At Market Trends, Oil's Baby Blues are weakening and its Market Profile has built in substantive overhead resistance up to the 107.30-107.80 zone. All those charts are also viewable on Oil's own page via the menu at left under BEGOS Markets. Gold (1321.30) after rising 1.5% over the final 3 hours of Friday's trade is continuing its buoyancy.
16 Sep '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Summers down, Spoo up: were the S&P to open at this instant,'twould gap up to 1707, 2 points short of its 1709 all-time high. Gold, in negative correlation, is down to 1310 from its Friday 1328 settle. Silver is the largest overnight loser, currently off 2.2% at 21.780. The widest trading range in the BEGOS Markets goes to Copper, already having traded 151% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Euro and Swiss well to the upside as the Dollar continues to weaken, yes, right in tandem with Gold, as has been the case for over a week. Oil down at 106.56, (see 11 Sep comment).
13 Sep '13, 05:53 Pacific Time: Gold (1319) clearly the party pooper on this, the eve of our 200th Gold Update. 'Tis what 'tis as the technicals foretold. The Gold traders appear to be spooked, and irrationally so, over next week's Fed Taper Caper. Gold is down, the Dollar is down, the EuroCurrencies getting the safe haven bid. Keep an eye on Gold's downside deviation from its Market Magnet as 'tis getting a bit far afield thereto, as more so is Silver from its own Market Magnet. The S&P is textbook technically overbought near-term by all three of our main measures (BollBands, RSI and Stochastics).
12 Sep '13, 05:01 Pacific Time: Per last Friday's (06 Sep) commentary, Gold overnight achieved our "90% probability" daily MACD Market Rhythm target of 1347. This 1350-1325 area is important to hold as support as 'tis two broad-based lows from both April and May as well as structural support from July. The selling down to this area appears fairly in line with other technicals, including the stated turndown in the Baby Blues (Market Trends), and at this instant (1342) has returned to meet with its otherwise rising valuation line (Market Values). Spoo (S&P) rolls into December contract at the CME opening.
11 Sep '13, 05:01 Pacific Time: From Friday into Monday, the S&P by our textbook technicals module went from oversold to overbought. The last time that occurred in 1 day was from 27-28 January 2009 (up to 874). 5 weeks later the S&P traded as low as 667 (-24%). A like loss from the current 1684 would bring 1280. Not a forecast, but these things do happen. September volatility thus far is best represented at Market Ranges by Silver, Oil & the Spoo. Oil (107.26) crossed beneath its Market Magnet yesterday, with negative crosses on MACDs such that the 105s near-term appear in the offing.
10 Sep '13, 04:48 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS markets are down this morning as only the Spoo is in the black, such that the S&P ought open at 1680, (Spoo resistance 1670-1705). The decline in the Baby Blues (Market Trends) mentioned in prior posts across most of the BEGOS components is playing out well for those Short those markets. Gold (1367) thus far is the most volatile of the group, the 1370s-to-1360s support area still doing its part despite the Spoo having now risen better than 55 points over the last 7 sessions, (per The Gold Update these 2 markets are tracking in negative correlation).
09 Sep '13, 05:03 Pacific Time: A very mixed morning across the BEGOS markets spectrum. Silver is showing the most alacrity to this point, having traded 78% of its EDTR ("expected daily trading range", for each market as shown on the Market Ranges page). The white metal is down 1.4% at 23.530 in context with its Baby Blues (Market Trends page) having been rolling over for better than a week. The Baby Blues are falling for 6 of the 8 BEGOS markets, the 2 exceptions being Oil and the Spoo (S&P). Per the prior comment and The Gold Update, be wary of Gold's daily MACD negative cross.
06 Sep '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: BEGOS Market Ranges are narrow ahead of the US payroll data. Gold (1370) continues to seek protection in the 1370s-1360s, albeit its own Baby Blues are rolling over, the lower end of the support clump in its Market Profile is being probed, and its Daily MACD crossed negatively yesterday, which per the Market Rhythms page has a 90% probability for at least 20 points lower from Thursday's settle down to 1347. Oil (108.93) met its Market Magnet, up from which it is rebounding, but the promising MACD Daily upside crossover from a week ago has become indecisive.
05 Sep '13, 04:51 Pacific Time: Much incoming Econ Data is due over the next 24 hours so all eyes to the Economic Barometer which shall initially be updated just after 07:00 PT this morning. Market Ranges across the BEGOS markets are below normal ahead of the data. It remains dubious as to whether the MACD cross on Syria-influenced Oil (107.82) to the upside will follow-through; its Baby Blues are rising (Market Trends page), but there is now a negative cross per our Market Magnets page, as is also the case for Silver (23.585) and Gold (1395.4) -- and positively so for the Spoo (1653.25).
04 Sep '13, 04:59 Pacific Time: Oil's (108.00) daily MACD and Market Value are still on the positive side, however subject to political determinations over Syria. In Market Profiles, Gold (1404.4) remains well-supported by the 1370s as 'twas anticipated in the latest Gold Update. Copper (3.2520) has been in decline, the Baby Blues at Market Trends clearly astride in the move down. For both the Euro (1.3173) and Swiss (1.0672) , their trends are now negative as has been portended by the Baby Blues over the last few weeks. The Spoo (1637.75) buoyed by near-term oversold technicals.
03 Sep '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: With StateSide Labor Day behind us, Volatility Season begins. This vastly upgraded website has now been on-line for a month and hopefully users are gleaning its market leading characteristics. As examples, the weakening in Market Trends of the Baby Blues when the Euro was over 1.3400; it is now 1.3167; the retreat in Gold after appearing excessively above its Market Magnet; the crossovers in the Market Values, and so forth. Mergers and Syria look to have the S&P start strong; let's see by month's end if both the Spoo (1644) and Gold (1395) reach their 1500s.
02 Sep '13, 06:43 Pacific Time: Gold already has traded 103% of its EDTR ("expected daily trading range" -- see Market Ranges) despite today being a StateSide holiday. The market waits for no man. Per the expectations in The Gold Update, Gold has dipped down as low as 1374, but the resiliency is there, the price at this instant being 1391. The Spoo (S&P Futures) is currently up at 1646 as the great western minds (USA, UK, France) "brain cramp" on Syria, in turn pressuring Oil (106.81) and perhaps invalidating its positive MACD crossover noted in the prior two posts. Silver up 3.0% at this time.
30 Aug '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Gold healthily pulling back into the upper reaches of the 1300s; "healthily" as per the Market Magnets page, Gold's own Magnet has yet to return up into the 1400s despite price having traded as high as 1434 on Wednesday. Following their Baby Blues (Market Trends page) lower, Swiss has crossed its own Magnet to the downside whilst the Euro too has crossed beneath its valuation line (see Market Values). Oil's daily MACD remains positively disposed following yesterday's cited crossover despite price being down this morning. Bond rolls into December.
29 Aug '13, 05:08 Pacific Time: Euro and Swiss finally breaking down this morning, the Baby Blues (Market Trends page) having so suggested for some 3 weeks. Euro reached the 1.3454 level 7 sessions ago, now as low as 1.3243; Swiss over the same period from 1.0936 now down to 1.0757. Copper's trend by the same measure remains up but is weakening. Oil produced a Buy Signal on its Daily MACD per this session's opening at 109.53: as noted at our Market Rhythms and/or Oil Pages, this crossover has continued by at least 2.9 additional points ($2,900 per contract) in 9 of the last 10 occurrences.
28 Aug '13, 04:46 Pacific Time: One might point to Syria, but if it did not exist, 'twould be the same. Long overdue 'tis been for Gold to materially rise (1434 overnight, price following through handsomely as anticipated by those MACD crossovers), and for the S&P to unwind, (a 10% correction from its all-time high on 02 August would bring 1539, still some 90 points below the current 1630 level). 'Tis Oil as usual winning the volatility contest on Syria, hitting 112.24 overnight, ('twas as low as 103.50 a week ago today). Euro and Swiss still have yet to succumb to weakening uptrend consistency.
27 Aug '13, 05:00 Pacific Time: The trend remains Gold's friend (high thus far 1415) as it does for the S&P (low thus far 1642). Leading indicators: the Baby Blues (Market Trends page). Catalysts: markets realization of Gold being money and the S&P expensive. Excuse: Syria. Good thing I filled the tank yesterday for a mere $4.23/gal.: Oil is well up from the 105s into the high 107s this morning. Given those numerous MACD crossovers mentioned in The Gold Update, further upside follow-through suggests 1430 this week. Note: Silver & Copper "first notice" for September delivery is Friday (30 August).
26 Aug '13, 05:18 Pacific Time: At the moment, only Silver and Copper are in the black this morning. The other six of the eight BEGOS markets are mildly underwater, but not before Gold having marched up soon after Sunday Evening's open to 1407, already a "higher high" for the new week. Viewable in the most recent Gold Update, or at the Market Profile or Gold pages, a pullback into the 1360s apex area would be perfectly acceptable prior to further surge up into the 1400s.
23 Aug '13, 04:57 Pacific Time: Gold still firm even in the facing of a rising Dollar these last three days as the linreg uptrends of the Euro and Swiss continue to weaken. Gold's own Baby Blues at Market Trends are rising, meaning that the linreg uptrend is reinforcing, thus suggesting the 1400s are nigh. The opposite is true for both the S&P, despite a recovery day yesterday, and the Bond. The S&P appears en route in the coming weeks sub-1600 and the Bond further sub-130.
22 Aug '13, 04:52 Pacific Time: Post-FOMC minutes and the Euro & Swiss are finally giving into their declining Baby Blues on the Market Trends page. Bond sub-130 for the first time since August 2011, yield 3.882% (10-yr. = 2.855%). Gold absolutely solid within its Market Profile, springing overnight from the 1350's back up into the 1370's. At Market Values, the S&P is 50 points below valuation, from where you can see over the last 12 months it has rebounded. The MoneyFlow suggests it ought move back up, but participation of flow to move the S&P 1 point is about as weak as it gets.
21 Aug '13, 04:49 Pacific Time: Oil penetrated down through its Market Value line yesterday, (the trader's rule of thumb being to Sell; 7 sessions earlier, it traded up through that line, a Buy upon closing 09 Aug at 106.03, to then trade as high as 107.95 on 16 Aug). This morning sub-105, its Market Profile shows resistance at 105.80. Euro and Swiss showing weakness ahead of the FOMC minutes, which - albeit 'tis already Wednesday - shall serve to kick off the week. Gold firm.
20 Aug '13, 04:47 Pacific Time: Per the Earnings Season page, Q2 is completed: for the 2,276 companies collected, 55% bettered their year-over-year bottom lines and thus 45% did not. No wonder per the S&P 500 Valuation & Ranks page, we've calculated the Index's p/e ratio as 26.8x. Gold (1364) proving to be very buoyant given all that support built as shown in the Market Profiles pages; Silver which had well-exceeded its Market Magnet has expectedly pulled back into the 22s. Again, both the Euro and Swiss continue to defy their falling Baby Blues; look for tomorrow's FOMC minutes to right that.
19 Aug '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Gold got the big buildup in the weekend's Gold Update and remains firm this morning, albeit per our Market Magnets some modicum of pullback would be normal as 'twould be same for Silver and Copper. A glance at our expected Market Ranges and you can see they're just beginning to increase as the volatility of Autumn ensues. The Euro and Swiss have yet to break down, however their Baby Blues at the Market Trends page suggests lower levels are nigh. Both the Bond and S&P are now in 21-day LinReg downtrends. Mon & Tue likely quiet; week's balance robust.
16 Aug '13, 04:59 Pacific Time: Gold is now almost 200 points above its low of just 34 trading sessions ago. Per its page, or that of Market Profiles, Gold has built in no less than three fat layers of support, reinforcing the notion that the worst is now well past. More of course in this weekend's Gold Update. Silver still far afield of its Market Magnet; price is coming off a bit this morning. The Baby Blues on both the Euro and Swiss foretelling lower price levels ahead. See, too, the Econ Baro.
15 Aug '13, 05:06 Pacific Time: The declining Baby Blues on the S&P at the Market Trends page are practically at zero here in real time. Egyptian disruptions/Walmart/Soros may be catalysts, however such selling is well overdue for the Spoo (last 1673) and a 10% correction from the high would bring 1535. Gold remains firm (1336) but the Bond is not getting a safe-haven bid. Meanwhile per the Market Magnets page, Silver is a bit far afield there (21.97) so some pullback warranted. Also, there is a substantial amount of incoming data over the next 24 hours, so keep an eye on the Economic Barometer.
14 Aug '13, 04:46 Pacific Time: With reference to our 02 August comment and as to how well the Market Trends page shows the Baby Blues tracking with both the Euro and Swiss Franc, their rolling over to the downside is appearing with a bit more alacrity this morning, the selling intensifying following reports of the EuroZone's recession ending. Both currencies have crossed beneath their Market Magnets as has the Bond. See, too, the Market Profiles support for Gold at 1311.
13 Aug '13, 04:45 Pacific Time: Per our page for Earnings Season, that for Q2 is into its final week. Of 2,216 companies having thus far reported, 64% have beaten estimates. What the FinMedia shan't report is that only 55% have actually beaten the prior year's like period ... which means that 45% have not. Is it any wonder our calculation of the S&P's p/e (27.7x) is as high as it is? This morning, Silver (+0.3%) is the most volatile of the BEGOS markets, and is out-muscling Gold (-0.7%).
12 Aug '13, 04:55 Pacific Time: Gold's volume for the first three hours of Sunday evening's trade ranks the sixth largest for that specific three-hour period since February (25 weeks ago); considering 'tis August, that is remarkable. Both the Euro and S&P are poised to break below their valuation lines this morning, the Spoo's last such breakdown being on 19 June, to then further fall from 1624 to 1566 (See Market Values). Silver up 1.7% (last 20.855, session's high thus far 21.260).
09 Aug '13, 04:44 Pacific Time: Yesterday's negative crossover "sell" for Gold on the Daily MACD may turn out to be a failed "one-day wonder" signal. Assuming that study continues its presence amongst our best Market Rhythms, a positive crossover could this time provide better upside follow-though. Gold may only be where it stood a week ago but its resilience is very telling that higher levels are ahead. Oil's been weak, but at our Market Ranges page, it shows as the most volatile.
08 Aug '13, 04:34 Pacific Time: Gold did confirm a negative crossover "sell" on the daily MACD; the "Market Rhythm" suggests we'll see 1268.5 trade before the next positive crossing back up. The Euro's "Baby Blues" have ceased rolling over for the time being. The "expected daily trading range" of the Spoo (S&P) is about as narrow as it gets, (see "Market Ranges"); suggests as we glide toward Labor Day that the daily ranges will begin to expand. Copper up 2.4% this morning.
07 Aug '13, 04:40 Pacific Time: Gold's Daily MACD is poised to confirm a negative crossover by today's close. Per the Market Rhythms page, such crosses have followed through by at least 17 additional points in 9 of the last 10 tests. Also on the Market Values page, Gold has penetrated beneath its value line, which is a trader's sell signal.
06 Aug '13, 04:38 Pacific Time: As surmised in the latest Gold Update, the metal has moved into the 1290s. Last 1288.5. "Big Ben Gap" spans from 1283 down to 1250. Ideally, we don't want to visit there, else 1283 could become resistance.
05 Aug '13, 05:03 Pacific Time: The Euro's "Baby Blues" are in the most incipient stage of rolling over. High of the recent up trend is 1.3347, so not wise to be Short above there. Last 1.3261. Expected daily range currently 0.0098.
02 Aug '13, 08:43 Pacific Time: Go to our "Market Trends" link and look how superbly the "Baby Blues" have been tracking with price for both the Euro and Swiss Franc these last three months. Be wary of them rolling over soon.
Swiss National Day (01 August 2013) has dawned. Welcome One & All to the new www.deMeadville.com. "You're gonna come to love this site!" --(The Gold Update, 27 July 2013)
Test Entry -- 26 Feb '13, 08:53 Pacific Time: Recall our notion of the S&P 500's being well overdue to correct a month's worth of gains in one session? It just happened. A rife El Plungo indeed.
