Earnings Season:
Truth (not Estimates)
The S&P 500:
--Valuation & Rankings
--MoneyFlow
BEGOS Markets:
Bond
Euro
Swiss Franc
Gold
Silver
Copper
Oil
S&P 500
BEGOS Measures:
Market Rhythms
Market Profiles
Market Trends
Market Values
Market Ranges
Market Magnets
22 Jan '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.4%, the other BEGOS Markets are "unch" to lower, the weakest being Oil and the Swiss Franc, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are accelerating their falls such that the notion in the current Gold Update for lower price levels near-term remains quite viable, (as therein noted by structural support 1521 for Gold and 17.42 for Silver). Again per yesterday's comment, the Market Values page continues to show both Gold and the Spoo as "high" (in real-time respectively by 45 and 107 points) above their smooth valuation lines. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets now finds Oil -1.8% (concerns over the Libyan production halt waning) followed by Copper -1.5%; the balance of the bunch range from the Spoo -0.3% to the Bond +0.2%; volatility as expected has progressed to moderate-to-robust, Oil and Copper have well-exceeded (given 2 days) 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Market Values extremes find the Spoo some 93 points "high" even given its pullback at present and Gold some 48 points "high" as well. Q4 Earnings Season picks up the pace this week, the average year-over-year improvement thus far for S&P 500 components being +3.5%, (essentially infinitesimal toward bridging the gap from the "live" P/E of 41.4x to the FinMedia forward P/E of 18.7x).
20 Jan '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Stateside physical bourses are closed for MLK Day but the BEGOS Markets are gliding along fairly split, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo all off just a tad and the metals triumvirate up by no more than same; a military blockade in Libya halted activity at two large production facilities, in turn having Oil (now on the Mar cac) gapping higher by +1.3% only to have said gap since filled back down such that price is now +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, which ought pick up as this session extends into Tue. The Gold Update looks near-term for a yellow metal dip to 1521 and a white metal dip to 17.42 given the fallout in both PMs "Baby Blues (see Market Trends) below their respective +80% axes. The "live" P/E of the S&P is at an unconscionable 41.3x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.4x.
17 Jan '20, 04:37 Pacific Time: Only the BEGOS Markets' Bond -0.4% and EuroCurrencies (both -0.2%) are in the red, the upside being led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +0.8%, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.4% -- despite which even Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Still, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing below their +80% axis such that we expect to see lower price levels near-term, as already has been suggested for Silver. Gold (presently 1558) shows dominant trading support by its Market Profile at 1552, failing which there is structural support sub-1536 in the 1520s. The climbing Econ Baro finishes the week with Dec's Housing Start/Permits, IndProd/CapUtil, and Jan's UofM Sentiment Survey.
16 Jan '19, 06:20 Central Euro Time: (In transit)- Early on the BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of a busy session for incoming econ data. Weakest is Silver -0.4% whilst firmest is Oil +0.2%; volatility as expected is light to this point, albeit Copper has already traced 54% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" continue their descent and those for Gold have (in real-time) curled down to their borderline +80% axis; per Market Values, Gold continues to hover some 50 point above its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, Dec's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing, and Nov's Business Inventories.
15 Jan '19, 08:51 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on low-to-moderate volatility, the safe havens getting a mild bid and the economically-driven components coming off by just a bit. Firmest are Gold +0.3% and Silver +0.2%; weakest is Copper -0.5%, followed by Oil and the Spoo, both -0.1%. Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed breaking below their +80% axis suggesting we'll see price move near-term down into the aforementioned 17.20-17.10 zone; again, those for Gold look to soon follow suit. Today brings both the Phase 1 USA/China trade deal signing as well as the Fed's "Beige Book". Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 10:01 Central Euro Time: Save for just mild increases in the Bond and EuroCurrencies, the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver -1.1% followed by Oil -0.4% and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have broken below their +80% axis, suggestive of a move lower into structural support 'round the 17.20-17.10 zone, (price currently 17.75); those for Gold are curling down, albeit have yet to breech the +80% axis; still, by Market Values, Gold is some 50 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's CPI.
13 Jan '19, 08:35 Central Euro Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets downside losers in commencing the new week, Silver -0.7.% and Gold -0.6%; The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's price having yet again gone through a geopolitical rewind as is it wont, spiking up on such events only to return from whence it came. The firmest components are Copper +0.4% and the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is mostly light to this early point as only Gold has exceeded tracing 50% of its EDTR, which per Market Ranges has of course notably widened. 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro. Note, too, that the P/E for the S&P has topped 40x: something to mind as Q4 Earnings Season unfolds.
10 Jan '19, 13:20 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of Dec's payrolls data. Firmest is the Spoo +0.3% whilst weakest are Gold and the Swiss Franc, both -0.2%; volatility is again light. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to drop swiftly; those for the EuroCurrencies and the metals triumvirate are in various stages of decline. Gold (presently 1551) is just a point below broad-based trading support (see Market Profiles) at 1552; only 1518 has more dominant support volume. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Nov's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Jan '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets notable losers, Silver -1.3% and Gold -0.6%; both metals having traced better than 100% of their EDTRs; otherwise, volatility is actually light within the context that Market Ranges generally have been on the increase; the session's upside leader is the Spoo, +0.4%. By Market Values, Oil has (in real-time) returned down to its smooth valuation line, whilst Gold is some 50 points "high" and the Bond some 5 points "low". And by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) dropping precipitately from having been above their +80% axis, suggestive of lower prices ahead such as to test support structure in the mid-59s to mid-57s, (price currently 59.88)
08 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The geopolitical flareup saw Gold spike to as high as 1613 (now 1580) and the Spoo plummet to as low as 3181 (now 3241), tensions now "said" to be "de-escalating". At present, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way with (as was the case 'round now yesterday) no one component changed by more than 0.3% either way; volatility is obviously robust (and then some) with all but one component (the Euro) tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR, and notably Gold, the Spoo and Oil each exceeding 250%. Meanwhile, due for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP jobs data and Nov's Consumer Credit.
07 Jan '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: As geopolitical news wanes a bit, so does the ranginess of the BEGOS Markets, no one component at present changed by more than 0.3% in either direction: -0.3% is the Swiss Franc and at the opposite extreme +0.2% are both Copper and Gold; the latter had traded as high as 1590 yesterday, having since fallen some 33 points to this session's low thus far of 1557; only the yellow metal has traced in excess of 100% (112%) of its EDTR, volatility for the balance of the bunch being moderate. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's ISM(SVC) Index plus Nov's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. Q4 Earnings Season is beginning.
06 Jan '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: Further follow-through from Fri's directional moves highlight the start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, with Silver +2.0%, Gold +1.5% and Oil +1.2%, but the Spoo -0.5% and Copper -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold has traded 229% of its EDTR, reaching as high as 1590, just 85 points below our forecast high for the entirety of 2020 at 1675 as further detailed in The Gold Update. Per Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 86 points above its smooth valuation line, however we've had readings within the past year of deviations well exceeding 100 points in both Jun and Aug; Oil's present deviation is +5 points, a range it too exceeded during 2019.
03 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The event in Baghdad has the BEGOS Markets even more on the move than typically we see in starting a new year: firmest is Oil +3.9% followed by Gold +1.2%; Copper is weakest -2.0% followed by the Spoo -1.3%; volatility is robust, indeed 4 components having traced more than 200% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The S&P 500 ("live" P/E 40.1x) is obviously far overdue for a decline; with an eye toward Gold, we note that price rising on geo-political events has a tendency to return from whence it came in the ensuing days as the lead story falls from primary focus. Dec's ISM(Mfg) Index, Vehicle Sales and Nov's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro, the balance of the day featuring FedSpeak and the FOMC's Minutes from its 10-11 Dec meeting.
02 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo and Copper, both +0.4%, are the new year's upside leaders, followed by Gold, Silver and the Bond all +0.3%; the EuroCurrencies and Oil are slightly weaker; volatility is moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) did not quite turn the upside corner come Tue's close, remaining below the -80% axis; however, those for Copper in curling lower confirmed settling under their +80% axis such that price may come off in the near term. Thanks to Investing.com for including in their 2020 Outlook our call for Gold 1675 and the notion of being Short the S&P by Nov's StateSide election.
31 Dec '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed for this final session of 2019, all components to settle at their usual times, (despite early closures/holidays elsewhere 'round the globe). Weakest is Oil -1.4% followed by Copper -0.2%; the PMs are the upside leaders with Silver +0.8% and Gold +0.5%; volatility is moderate, although Gold has traced 104% of its EDTR. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics reversed to Short yesterday nixing our 158^09 MRT: however, per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) climbing out above their -80% axis which if confirmed at today's close suggests higher prices ahead. Dec's Consumer Confidence completes the Econ Baro for the year. Bonne Année!
30 Dec '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: With the exceptions of the Bond -0.6% and Gold -0.1%, the BEGOS Markets are starting the week to the upside, led by Oil +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update selects our forecast high in 2020 for the yellow metal at 1675 and notes that by M2 currency debasement (even as adjusted for Gold's supply increase) that valuation for the 1st time has crossed above the $3,000/oz. threshold; as well, the core technical study of Gold's weekly parabolics has flipped from Short back to Long. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Chi PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
27 Dec '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: A reversal of fortune thus far for the BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate with Silver and Copper both -0.5% and Gold - 0.1%; the balance of the bunch range from the Bond being "unch" to higher ground for the Euro and Swiss Franc, both +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, with the 2 EuroCurrencies well-exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics triggered to the Longside yesterday (from a price of 156^15, price at present 156^25) for an MRT of 158^09 (or more conservatively 157^21); the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning the curl upward, albeit are below their -80% axis (at -84% in real-time). The Spoo +0.3% ought have the S&P open at a still further record high.
26 Dec '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: More gains for the metals triumvirate of the BEGOS Markets with Silver +1.2% trading and above 18 for the 1st time since 05 Nov, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.4% as noted having regained 1500; volatility again is ranging from light-to-robust, Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, the Spoo tracing but 20%, noting that key European and Asian bourses are closed for this trade date. Silver's robust performance in recent days now finds the Gold/Silver ratio down to 83.5x, (still extremely high by historical standards). Both PMs are "high" relative to their respective Market Magnets, but such is a characteristic of swift rise.
24 Dec '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate of the BEGOS Markets is the upside leader into this shortened session (all components closing within the 10:15-10:45 Pacific time frame): Silver is +1.0%, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.3%; the only downsider is the Euro -0.1%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with just a 19% EDTR tracing to robust for Silver with a 113% tracing. The Gold Update of 30 Nov queried "Shall Santa Gift Gold at 1500?": price this session has traded as high as 1496, so 'tis right close. Either way, a most Merry Christmas to Everyone everywhere! St. Nick comes through: Gold 1500 just traded at 07:11 PT. Cheers!
23 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black to kick off the week led by Silver +0.9% followed by Gold and the Spoo both +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold has traded as high as 1489, nicely on the heels of the current Gold Update entitled "Gold Need Dial In a Little More Power" after price put in its narrowest trading week of the last 14 years, still with the potential to regain 1500 to finish the year. By Market Trends, the only component in a linreg downtrend is the Bond. 'Tis a very light week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, today bringing in Nov's Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
20 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: As the final full trading week of the year draws toward a close, as was the case yesterday we've little change either way in the BEGOS Markets, most being a tad mildly lower, save for Silver +0.1%; weakest is Copper -0.4% followed by Oil -0.3%; again volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Ranges, the EDTRs for all 8 components are narrowing; by Market Magnets, most of the bunch's prices are inside deviations recorded across the last 3 months, the Spoo and Oil appearing somewhat "high" as do they at Market Values. Metrics for the Econ Baro include Nov's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus the final read on Q3 GDP.
19 Dec '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets continue on in their comparatively muted mode, the largest changers at present being the Bond and Silver, both -0.4%; the balance of the bunch are +0.1% to -0.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P's 3-day trading range of 14.85 points is the narrowest since 09 Aug 2018. The Spoo per its Market Profile shows 3199 as the most dominantly-traded price in the past 2 weeks, under which there is a dearth of support until 3173, followed by another until the 1351-1340 range. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Philly Fed Index, Nov's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Q3's Current Account Balance.
18 Dec '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Both the Bond and Spoo are +0.1%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Copper -0.4% followed by the Euro -0.3%; volatility again is mostly light and by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs either are stalling or outright dropping. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have risen above their +80% axis, confirming the linreg trend as consistent; those for the EuroCurrencies and Oil are stretching upward to achieve same. And by Market Values, the two components most distance from their smooth valuation lines are Oil (some 3 points "high") and the Spoo (some 75 points "high").
17 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Changes for the BEGOS Markets are fairly subtle: up the most is Oil +0.3%, the weakest component being the "unch" Spoo; volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver have turned positive, however those for the Bond are accelerating to the downside; currently 157^16, the Bond has Profile trading support in the 157^00-to-156^28 zone. Our "live" P/E for the S&P has reached the 38.0x level. Oil's cac vol is rolling from Jan into Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's Housing Starts/Permits and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
16 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.2% is down to start the BEGOS Markets' new week (and the final full one of the year) the upside leaders being Copper +0.7%, Oil +0.5%, Silver +0.4% and the Spoo +0.3% such that the S&P 500 may open at a fresh all-time high, our "live" P/E at 37.4x; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is "unch" notwithstanding The Gold Update citing the track to 1500 by year's end being in order; the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.7x. The Econ Baro has a busy week beginning today with Dec's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
13 Dec '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Fundamentals are afoot in fostering BEGOS Markets directions given a China "Phase 1" deal purportedly being inked and Johnson being victorious in the UK: up the most of the components is Oil +1.0% followed by the Euro 0.4%, the latter gapping to open above its page's "high if an up day" guesstimate; off the most is Copper -0.2%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo by its EDTR tracing of 39% to robust for the Swiss Franc with a 129% tracing. Cac vol for the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is moving from Dec into Mar. Today's metrics for the Econ Baro include Nov's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing, plus Oct's Business Inventories.
12 Dec '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: We've another fairly muted session for the BEGOS Markets, this time ahead of the ECB and Lagarde's 1st post-policy presser thereto. Oil +0.3% is the firmest component whilst weakest is Copper -0.4%, mirror changes to both their stances 'round this time yesterday. Copper's Market Magnet is nearly 10¢ below present price, the red metal appearing as at an extreme "high" by that measure. As the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower for both Gold and Silver, their prices nonetheless are fighting to stay firm. Due for the Econ Baro is Nov's PPI.
11 Dec '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted ahead of what (by Fed Funds futures pricing) shall be a "no-move" by the central bank; firmest is Copper +0.4% and weakest is Oil -0.3%; volatility is mostly light. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both PMs have turned south without nearing their +80% axes: whilst this a technical negative, we still (per The Gold Update) look to Gold's 1454-1434 "support shelf" to hold through year-end, indeed seeing 1500 en route. At present amongst all 8 components, only Silver's 21-day linreg trend is down, the Gold/Silver ratio ever-high at 88.1x. Nov's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
10 Dec '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: We find the BEGOS Markets mixed with the metals triumvirate to the upside, Copper +0.4% and as was the case at this time yesterday Gold and Silver both +0.3%; to the downside are Oil and the Spoo, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still falling: notably, the Spoo's recent rally (from 3070 up to 3151) did not reach the all-time high (3158); note, too, that the same measure for both Gold and Silver is running out of upside puff. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 revisions for Productivity (initially negative) and Unit Labor Costs.
09 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week with the economically-driven components on the outs, the best bids going to Gold and Silver, both +0.3%, and the Bond +0.2%; weakest are Oil -0.8%, Copper -0.6% and the Spoo -0.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price maintaining its stance above the 1454-1434 "support shelf" despite Fri's fallout. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in realtime) continuing their climbout above the 0% axis, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to positive; and by Market Values, Gold is some 22 points below its smooth valuation line. Silver remains significantly attractive relative to Gold, the Gold/Silver ratio at 88.0x.
06 Dec '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Ahead of Nov's payrolls data the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, bookmarked with the Bond, the Spoo and Copper all +0.2% and Oil -0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Gold/Silver ratio is 87x such as we saw this past August; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 36.0x: both those ratios are of course in rarefied high air. By Market Values, the Spoo (which had been some 100 points "high" per its smooth valuation line some two weeks ago) is still 50 points "high"; and by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are swiftly falling. Also due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Oct's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
05 Dec '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Again getting the bid are the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components with Oil +0.7%, followed by the Spoo +0.4% and Copper +0.3%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility has swung to being mostly light. Depending on one's charting, the much of the bunch appear to be plodding through near-term technical encumbrance: notably, the Bond, the Spoo and Copper are all trading near the mid-point of their respective 10-day Market Profiles. Still there's a good dose of data due for the Econ Baro into week's end, today including Oct's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
04 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher led by Oil +1.3%, Copper +0.7% and the Spoo +0.5%; the balance of the bunch are all in the red, but not severely so, the weakest being the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold not only hit the 1480.3 MRT noted yesterday, but this session's high (1489.9) is essentially 10 points from the 1500 level cited from "Santa" in the current edition of the Gold Update. The Spoo yesterday confirmed its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) dropping below their +80% level and they're lower still today: we see some structural support in the 3055-3021 area. The Econ Baro looks to Nov's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Dec '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate are book-ending the BEGOS Markets: both Gold and Silver are +0.5% whilst Copper is -0.5%; the Spoo is lower too at -0.3%, (the latter 2 'tis said in response to a China trade deal perhaps being postponed until after the StateSide election). Session volatility is moderate. Gold's daily MACD confirmed a Long signal, (from yesterday's settle at 1470.3), for an MRT of 1480.3, (high thus far 1476.7). Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) dropping below the +80% level, indicative of lower prices ahead. Nov's Vehicle Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
02 Dec '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil +2.1% is the BEGOS Markets firm leader to begin Dec, yet the only other 2 components in the black -- and barely that -- are the Spoo and Swiss Franc, both +0.1%; weakest are the Bond and Silver, both -0.9%, followed by Gold -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond having traded 150% of its EDTR and moreover achieving our MRT of 157^20. Despite Gold being off, The Gold Update makes the case for the yellow metal finishing above 1500 by year-end. Due Econ Baro are Nov's ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending.
29 Nov '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: As the Fri session continues we find the only BEGOS Markets not lower are Gold +0.1% and the Bond "unch"; adding to its losses is Copper -1.2% with the balance of the bunch only off by as much as -0.2% at present; Copper's tracing of its EDTR has expanded to 113%; volatility for this 2-day session otherwise moderate. The Bond's 12-hr Parabolics continue their fresh Short course as we look to an MRT of 157^20 (Mar cac). Despite the Spoo being lower, it is 98 points above its smooth valuation line on the Market Values page; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 37.5x. 'Tis an early settle today for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo at 10:15 PT and the Metals and Oil at 10:45 PT.
28 Nov '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: StateSide Thanksgiving finds the BEGOS Markets weaker on balance, this session for Fri settle with Copper -0.6%, Oil -0.5% and the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly light, albeit Copper and the Spoo have respectively traced 89% and 72% of their EDTRs in the China "off-again, on-again" trading sentiment. The week's data for the Econ Baro is all in place, pushing the measure up to its highest reading since 15 Oct. Cac vol for the Bond is moving from Dec into Mar for which we've a fresh MRT of 157^20 (from an entry of 159^10) per the 12-hr. Parabolics having confirmed flipping to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT. Trading halt today is from 10:00 PT until 15:00 PT.
27 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Down with the BEGOS Markets safe havens and up with the economically-driven components, led by Oil +0.5%, Copper +0.3%, and the Spoo +0.1%; the PMs are weakest with Silver -0.3% and Gold -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The metals triumvirate cac vols are moving from Dec into Feb for Gold and into Mar for Silver and Copper. With StateSide physical bourses closed tomorrow (and only open for an abbreviated Fri session), the Econ Baro gets a dose of 9 incoming metrics today including Nov's Chi PMI, Oct's Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE, Durables and Pending Home Sales, plus the 1st revision to Q3 GDP. The BEGOS Markets will open as usual this afternoon, (then with at 5-hour trading halt tomorrow until 15:00 PT).
26 Nov '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo presently "unch" at 3132 did an overnight loopty-loo in swiftly zooming up to 3145 on promising China "Phase 1" deal talk and then zipped back down; the firmest BEGOS Market is Oil +0.4% followed by Silver +0.3%, the balance of the bunch being flat to marginally up; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Values the Spoo is 94 points "high" above its smooth valuation line and at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" have steadied their mild decline, hovering 'round the +90% level; those for the Swiss Franc are accelerating lower within their already linreg negative trend. The Econ Baro looks to Nov's Consumer Confidence and Oct's New Home Sales.
25 Nov '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Only Copper +0.4% and the Spoo +0.2% are in the black to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest component being Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility light-to-moderate. The Gold Update's being entitled "Higher Gold Ahead" is the thrust of our missive as we look to the 1454-1434 "support zone" to hold, meaning the worst of the present parabolic Short trend is in place with a shot a price closing the year above 1500. Q3 Earnings Season concludes with only 52% of the 2,105 reports bettering their bottom lines vs. Q3 of a year ago, for the weakest year-over-year quarterly improvement since Q1 of 2016.
22 Nov '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: In a turnabout from this time yesterday, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, the firmest being Gold and Copper, both +0.5%, followed by Silver and the Bond, both +0.4%; volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 28% tracing of its EDTR to robust for the Euro with a 127% tracing, the latter moving about in response to the 1st key address by new ECB President Christine Lagarde. The Spoo by Market Values is 83 points above its smooth valuation line and by Market Trends the "Baby Blues" have slipped sub-90% (reaching down sub-80% would portend lower levels ahead). The Econ Baro wraps its week with the revision to Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey; and today is the final day of a comparatively mediocre Q3 Earnings Season.
21 Nov '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Save for the Euro +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -0.8% followed by Silver -0.4%; volatility marches onward at the moderate pace we've been seeing of late. The Spoo (at present 3108) is well off its overnight low of 3091; however per yesterday's comment, the Spoo by Market Values is still 85 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line, whilst at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" (albeit still above +90%) are (also in real-time) dipping the most in at least the past month. 'Tis the Econ Baro's busiest day for this week, reports including Nov's Philly Fed Index, plus Oct's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales.
20 Nov '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.7% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Bond +0.4% and then Copper +0.3%; weakest are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo, all -0.2%; volatility continues to run at a moderate pace. The Bond's MRT of 159^28 has been met. The Spoo after making an all-time high yesterday has in this session traded below the lows of both the prior 2 sessions, suggesting a top may be in place: at Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 104 points above its smooth valuation line; the live P/E of the S&P is 36.8x. The FOMC Minutes from the 29-30 Oct meeting are due at 11:00 PT.
19 Nov '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets strength to this point is with Silver and Copper, both +0.5%, whilst to the weak side we've Oil -0.7%; volatility is moderate and by the Market Ranges page most components have slowed the narrowing of their respective EDTRs. The MRT on the Bond for 159^28 remains intact as the 12-hr. Parabolics travel their Longside course; at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" whist still sub-0% are accelerating their climb toward that axis; and at Market Values, the Bond is better than 3 points below its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Nov '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets: we've the PMs leading to the downside with Silver -0.9% and Gold -0.6%, (as is Oil -0.6%); The Gold Update graphically shows the resilient character of the 1454-1434 "support shelf" which finally was tested last week within the overall parabolic Short trend now entering its 10th week. Firmer this session are both the Spoo +0.2% and Euro +0.1%. Volatility is maintaining a moderate pace. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics continue to support our MRT for 159^28. Oil's cac vol is moving from Dec into Jan. And Q3 Earnings Season moves into its final week: 'tis the weakest year-over-year comparative Season since Q1 of 2016.
15 Nov '19, 04:10 Pacific Time: In a reversal from this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mostly lower with Silver to the downside by -0.8% followed by Oil -0.4%; only mildly gaining are Copper, the Spoo and the Euro; volatility continues running at a moderate pace. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics yesterday confirmed (at 12:00 PT) a flip to Long from an entry level of 158^21 (presently 158^07) with an MRT of 159^28, (which by the current Market Rhythms list seeks a gain of $1,200/cac from the entry level). A big dose of data hits the Econ Baro today, including Nov's NY State Empire Index, Oct's Retail Sales, IndProd/CapUtil and Ex/Im Pricing, and Sep's Business Inventories.
14 Nov '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, led by Oil +0.7% and then Copper and the Bond, both +0.5%; the weak links are the Euro and the Spoo, both -0.1%; volatility remains moderate. As noted back on 05 Nov and as listed on the current Market Rhythms list, Gold's 4-hr. Moneyflow has been regularly been producing signals with attractive follow-through. At Market Trends, save for Oil and the Spoo, the other 6 components all are in 21-day linreg downtrends. And at Market Values, the Spoo still shows as some 100 points "high" above its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro is Oct's PPI.
13 Nov '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've the opposite of Mon's session with the safe havens of the BEGOS Markets to the upside led by Silver +1.2%, the Bond +0.8% and Gold +0.6%; the economically-driven components are all lower with Oil -0.7%, the Spoo -0.3% and Copper -0.2%; volatility again is moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" of all 8 markets are falling, (including barely in real-time those for the Spoo, albeit they're very still high, basically in their ceiling crawl at +95%). Metrics for the Econ Baro kick into gear for the remainder of the week, today bringing in Oct's CPI and Treasury Budget.
12 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are lightly lower led by Silver -0.5% and then the Swiss Franc and Copper, both -0.3%; the only net gainer at present is Oil +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's EDTR by Market Ranges is down to 22 points, the narrowest since early May; again by Market Values, the Spoo is 100 points "high", (as of course is the "live" P/E of the S&P at 33.3x); and by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are crawling across the ceiling, but those for Oil appear to be running out of upside puff, and those for Copper are now accelerating lower, all 3 of those markets having been in positive upside correlation. Trump gives a luncheon address at the ECNY.
11 Nov '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Out with the economically-driven markets and in with the safe havens: weakest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil -1.7% followed by Copper -1.1%; firmest is Silver +0.5% followed by Gold and the Bond both +0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites price having all but reached the 1454-1434 support shelf in trading on Fri as low as 1457, our sense being this is about as far down as price shall travel within the course of the still Short weekly parabolic trend. As well, the S&P 500 remains extremely expensive by any and all valuations at which we look, including the Spoo by the Markets Value page being 100 points above its smooth valuation line. And by the Earnings Season page, with some 1900 reports recorded, just 53% have bettered Q3 of a year ago, similar to the pace seen for Q2 and Q1.
08 Nov '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red which (even without looking) one knows the Dollar is firmer on the session. Off the most is Silver -2.0% followed by Oil -1.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is 87.3x(!) Gold is on its session low of 1461: recall from recent editions of The Gold Update that 1454-1434 is the support zone for we've watched during this current weekly parabolic Short trend. The Euro by its descending "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) has reached our soft targeted area of the mid-1.10s (this session's low 1.10510). With but a couple of weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, 418 of the S&P 500's constituents have reported with 62% improving over Q3 of a year ago, (73% having "beaten" estimates). The Econ Baro looks to Nov's UofM Sentiment read and Sep's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The otherwise docile BEGOS Markets were awakened overnight by China's having "agreed" with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases, Oil in turn now +1.2% and Copper +1.0%, with Silver -0.9% and the Bond -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond tracing 114% of its EDTR and Copper 106% of its EDTR. The Euro's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue to fall, price overnight touching down to 1.10800. The Gold/Silver ratio is back up to 85.0x and our "live" P/E for the S&P is 34.2x. Due late in the session for the Econ Baro is Sep's Consumer Credit.
06 Nov '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Quietude has returned to the BEGOS Markets: weakest is Silver -0.4%, firmest is the Bond +0.2, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have accelerated their downside pace, price both yesterday and today having dipped into the aforementioned 1.10s with the mid-1.10s still a reasonable target area; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are rolling over without having achieved much upside travel, (i.e. not reaching the key +80% area), so that is a near-term negative: again both Gold and Silver are in the midst of weekly parabolic Short trends. As well, the Spoo looks to be running out of puff, notably with both Oil and Copper a bit weaker this session. For the Econ Baro we've Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 Nov '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are to the upside, led by Oil and Copper both +0.7%; the safe havens are in the loss column, led by the Bond -0.6% and then Gold -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, however in the context that per the Market Ranges page our EDTRs have been narrowing. From the list of current qualifiers at the Market Rhythms page, Gold's 4-hr. Moneyflow study has been notably attractive. And per Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have today (in real-time) lurched lower in support of our notion for price seeking the mid-1.10s, (present = 1.11395). The Econ Baro looks to Oct's ISM(Svc) Index and Sep's Trade Deficit.
04 Nov '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are displaying a bit more life than were they 'round this time during much of last week. Oil +1.1% is the firmest of the bunch, followed by the Spoo +0.5%; weakest is the Bond -0.6%, followed by the Swiss Franc -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 81% and Gold the narrowest tracer at 36%. The Gold Update questions price moving above the 1526 into the balance of the year, or if the ongoing (albeit shallow) weekly parabolic Short trend has more duration to run. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in realtime) crossing below our key +80% level; those for the Euro continue to wane, but just mildly. Sep's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
01 Nov '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Econ Baro effected by 19 incoming metrics this week alone slides into Friday with Oct's payrolls data, ISM(Mfg) Index, Vehicle Sales, and Sep's Construction Spending in the balance. Ahead of it all, the BEGOS Markets (after a more robust day yesterday) are little changed either way with Oil +0.4% up the most and both Gold and Copper -0.2% off the most; volatility is mostly light within the overall guise of narrowing EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, despite the Euro's firming this week, its "Baby Blues" have moved (in real-time) down to the +70% level; and rising are those for the Bond, having confirmed yesterday a cross above their -80% level, indicative of still higher levels ahead near-term, (from the current 161s toward the 163s).
31 Oct '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Following a series of comparably slow sessions to this point of the day, (and the anticipated -0.25% FedFunds cut being in the bag), the BEGOS Markets are more active: firmest is Silver +1.4% followed by Gold +0.8%; weakest is Copper -0.9% followed by the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust within the construct that Market Ranges have been narrowing considerably. The Euro has been firm these last 2 sessions despite the Market Trends sub-80% breach by the "Baby Blues": presently 1.11940, were price to exceed 1.12220, prudent cash management can opt to caution the mid-1.10s call. Today's Econ Baro inputs include Q3's Employment Cost Index, Oct's Chi PMI, plus Sep's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE inflation (Fed-favoured) reading.
30 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a bit more movement to this point of the session than we've been seeing: yesterday, all 8 components settled inside of their respective neutral zones, something we don't recall having noted in the past. At present, Gold and Silver both are +0.4% whilst Copper is -0.4%; still, volatility is mostly light, although the Swiss Franc has traced 71% of its EDTR. The Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed slipping below their +80% axis such that we expect price (presently 1.11430) to dip over the near-term toward the mid-1.10s. The Econ Baro receives the 1st read on Q3 GDP and Oct's ADP jobs data; the FOMC announce their -0.25% rate cut come 11:00 PT.
29 Oct '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in sideways modes, indeed all 8 within what we'd refer to as their respective neutral zones. 2 components are "unch" (Gold and the Spoo) whilst the other 6 are lower, the weakest being Oil and Silver, both -0.4%; volatility is as light as can be with 6 of the components tracing less than 30% of their EDTRs, that measure itself swiftly dropping across the spectrum as can be seen on the Market Ranges page. The Euro's "Baby Blues (per Market Trends) have in real-time slipped below their +80% axis, which upon an end-of-day confirmation would be suggestive of still lower price levels. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's Consumer Confidence and Sep's Pending Home Sales.
28 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: To start the week the word is "sideways" for the BEGOS Markets on relatively light volatility. The largest net change at present is Oil's being -0.5%, whilst to the upside Silver is +0.4%. The Gold Update highlights Silver's upside out-performance during the latter part of last week, but that the Gold/Silver ratio (now 83.4x) remains well above the 2001-to-date average of 64.8x. The Bond achieved our MRT of 158^28. The week's calendar is busy with 19 metrics due for the Econ Baro, 155 Q3 earnings reports due within the S&P 500, and the Fed's rate cut come Wednesday.
25 Oct '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Silver is the BEGOS Markets outperformer, +1.7% with a 104% EDTR tracing; no other component is remotely close, the next group of gainers being Copper, Oil and the Spoo all +0.2% on just light volatility; the Bond is off 2 pips and at 159^28 is one full point above our MRT of 158^28, the guiding daily MACD still negative. The Gold/Silver ratio at 83.2x is the lowest (per recorded closings) in a full month. Q3 Earnings Season is some 20% complete with 74% of reported bottom lines beating estimates, but only 64% actually improving; specific to the S&P 500 with 170 reporting thus far, 78% having beaten estimates, but only 71% have improved; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.7x. Oct's final UofM Sentiment read comes due for the Econ Baro.
24 Oct '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Narrowing trading ranges remain the name of the game with 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets components to this point of the session tracing less than 50% of their EDTRs, the 2 exceptions being the Bond's 55% tracing and the Euro's 79% tracing. Net changes are slight as well, ranging from Copper +0.3% to Oil -0.4%. Our MRT for the Bond of 158^28 remains intact as the MACD's daily stance stays negative. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Sep's Durable Orders and New Home Sales. Mario Draghi delivers his final post-ECB policy statement (04:45 PT) press conference at 05:30 PT.
23 Oct '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets safe haven components are mildly higher and the balance lower. Both the Bond and Gold are +0.3% and Silver is +0.1%; Oil is weakest -0.7% followed by Copper -0.3%; volatility is only light at best, as per the Market Ranges page all EDTRs continue to narrow. Still negative is the Bond's daily MACD, even with price back above 160; still, the MRT of 158^28 is in play, and per the Market Profile, 160^20 is a dominant trading resistor; as well, per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" continue to descend. At Market Rhythms, the list is rife with 28 studies, many of which are for the metals.
22 Oct '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light with the BEGOS Markets little changed either way at present: firmest is Silver +0.4% and weakest is the Swiss Franc -0.3%. At Market Ranges, EDTRs are decidedly dropping across the spectrum, a notable observation given Oct is oft considered a volatile month, (albeit there's nearly 2 weeks still to run). At Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components have their "Baby Blues" increasing: only those continuing to drop are for the Bond, the daily MACD for which is furthering its negativity with the 158^28 MRT still in play. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's Existing Home Sales.
21 Oct '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver is +1.0% as the firmest BEGOS Markets performer in starting the week: with Gold only +0.1%, the Gold/Silver ratio drops to a still very excessive 84.3x. Weakest of the bunch is Oil -0.8%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's daily MACD is working lower, the MRT of 158^28 being maintained; by Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) accelerating lower, having crossed below their 0% axis; by Market Values, the Bond is in harmony with its smooth valuation line as both trace lower together; and by its Market Magnet, the Bond shows as some 2 points "low", the most recent low extreme being better than 5 points "low" in mid-September, (all of these readings supportive of the noted MRT).
18 Oct '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil +0.7% is the BEGOS Markets upside leader whilst in mirror image the weakest is Silver -0.7%. Volatility is mostly light, underscored by the narrowing across the board of EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. Maintaining its negative bent is the Bond's daily MACD in support of our 158^28 MRT; per Market Trends, the only components with positive 21-day linreg inclinations are Copper and the Euro; and per Market Magnets, the Euro's deviation is nearly a full point (.01) "high" which may be considered "extreme", notably due to the Brexit bounce, (the agreement with the EU still having to pass Parliament). Oil's cac vol is moving from Nov into Dec. Due for the Econ Baro is Sep's Leading Indicators.
17 Oct '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: 'Tis put that the "EU and UK reach agreement on Brexit deal", which within the BEGOS Markets has effected the Euro (+0.3%) to trace 138% of its EDTR; otherwise, the volatility amongst the balance of the bunch is merely light-to-moderate. Firmest is Silver +0.7% and weakest is the Bond -0.3%, the latter's daily MACD continuing its negative track and thus the 158^28 MRT being still in place. The Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have (in real-time) reached down to their 0% axis, the 21-day linreg trend now flat toward turning negative as anticipated in yesterday's comment. The Econ Baro looks to a number of metrics including Oct's Philly Fed Index, plus Sep's Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.
16 Oct '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4% and the "unch" Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Copper -1.4% followed by Silver -1.1%; volatility is moderate. The Bond's MRT of 158^28 remains intact despite the up day as the daily MACD stays negative; also, the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends continue to drop such that the 21-day linreg trend may rotate to negative by week's end; having just confirmed as negative, too, for the Bond is its daily Price Oscillator. Sep's Retail Sales and Aug's Business Inventories come into the Econ Baro; then late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
15 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe haven components of the BEGOS Markets are little changed, but not so those more economically-driven: we've Oil -0.8%, Copper -0.6%, but the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond, for which per Market Trends is seeing its "Baby Blues" falling after having been above their +80% level, confirmed a negative crossing on the daily MACD, which (per an entry at 160^24) looks for a MRT of 158^28 ($1,900/cac by the present Market Rhythms list). Q3 Earnings Season ramps up a bit today as results from several major banks are due; due, too, for the Econ Baro are the NY State Empire Index for Oct and late in the session Sep's Treasury Budget.
14 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: With data recovered and its transmission back on go, we find the week starting with Oil -2.5%, so 'tis said given concerns over the US/China "Phase One" trade agreement. Weak, too, are Copper -0.9% and the Spoo -0.3%; gaining a bid are the Bond +0.6%, Gold +0.4% and Silver +0.3%. The Gold Update points to price, as has been told, remaining in correction mode with the potential of the 1454-1434 support shelf still viable for a test, the weekly parabolic Short trend beginning a 5th week (the flip price being 1557). Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" have kinked lower (in real-time) for the 1st day since 01 Oct, those for Gold having been meandering lower now for the 4th consecutive session.
11 Oct '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: To our valued readers: we are at present under the duress of a data transmission issue due ('twould appear) to some software "path" corruption following an automated op-sys update to the computer we use whilst traveling; we believe this is unrelated to the widespread public safety power shutoff throughout much of Northern California which has not quite reached us up here at Squaw Valley from where we'll attempt to release tomorrow's Gold Update in some limited form. Fortunately we expect to fully recover and restore all requisite data that drive our analytics and the website upon working with the desktop "workhorses" in the new week. The Econ Baro (Ex/Im Pricing and UofM Sentiment) along with the Earnings Page shall be updated today. Thanks as ever for your valued readership and patience.
10 Oct '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: No one BEGOS Market is at present changed a full percentage point either way, most of the bunch being higher led by Copper + 0.9% and the weak link being the Spoo -0.2%; volatility however is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and the Euro having traced in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs. The Bond is making a "lower low" for the 4th consecutive session, yet its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have crossed above their +80% axis: upon their kinking back below that level, we'd anticipate still lower prices still. Sep's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
09 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: We're seeing the reverse of this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components to the upside with Oil +1.0% in the lead, followed by the Spoo +0.8%; downside safe havens are led by the Bond -0.3% followed by Gold -0.2%; volatility is moderate, save for the Spoo which has traced 105% of its EDTR. Gold's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue their stall right on the 0% axis, as had those been for the Swiss Franc, (which in real-time have dropped sub-0%). Aug's Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro; late in the session come the FOMC's minutes from their 17-18 Sep meeting.
08 Oct '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' safe haven components are higher, lead by Gold +0.7%, Silver +0.6%, and the Swiss Franc +0.4%; on the economically-driven side, Oil is -1.2% followed by the Spoo -0.6% and then Copper -0.1%; volatility is moderate. Despite the PMs getting a bit of a push, at Market Trends their "Baby Blues" respective recent upside stints are stalling. At Market Values, the primary BEGOS components are all near their respective smooth valuation line, save for Oil showing some 4 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro is Sep's PPI; Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.
07 Oct '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: The week's start finds the BEGOS Markets mixed. Firmest is Oil +0.6% whilst weakest is Silver -0.6%: volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, only the Bond and Swiss Franc (barely) are is linreg uptrends, although the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver are regaining some upside ground. The Gold Update points to price's correction sub-1500 as having been brief, but given the weekly parabolic Short trend being relatively young that the 1454-1434 support area is still viable for a test; the Gold/Silver ratio has climbed to 86.0x and the S&P's "live" P/E is 35.5x. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Aug's Consumer Credit.
04 Oct '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Ahead of Sep's jobs data we've 6 of the BEGOS Markets to the upside, led by Oil and the Swiss Franc both +0.5%; the 2 weak leaks are the Spoo and Copper both -0.4%; volatility understandably is mostly light, save for the Swiss Franc's 112% EDTR tracing. With the recent overall volatility we've not been citing any specific MRTs, however there are 27 qualified candidates at present for tracking on the list at Market Rhythms. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Aug's Trade Deficit; Powell is scheduled for opening remarks at today 's "Fed Listens" event 'round 11:00 PT.
03 Oct '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.8% and the Swiss Franc -0.3% are in the red amongst the BEGOS Markets, the firmest being Oil, but just by +0.4%, followed by the Bond, Gold and Silver all +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, that for the Bond has swung to rising: 'tis falling for the balance of the 7 other components. Although both the Bond and Spoo are marginally higher in this session, they at present have the best correlation -- which is negative -- of the 5 primary BEGOS components. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's ISM(Svcs) Index and Aug's Factory Orders.
02 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Having lost 1.4% yesterday, the Spoo is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets at present, -0.8%, followed by the Swiss Franc -0.7%; Gold +0.4% is the firmest component; volatility is moderate, save for the Swiss Franc's robust EDTR tracing of 125%. At Market Profiles, only the Bond's price is above its midpoint, whilst at Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) crossing below its smooth valuation line; yet less negatively, the S&P's Moneyflow yesterday was down the regression-equivalent of 14 points vs. the Index itself falling 36 points; but notably on balance from a quarter ago, the Index shows as 120 points "high". Sep's ADP jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Oct '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: In kicking off Q4 'tis a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets: weakest is Copper -1.4% followed by the Bond -0.8%; firmest are Silver and Oil both +0.7%; volatility runs from light for Oil by its EDTR tracing of 32% to robust for the Bond with a 121% EDTR tracing. Despite the Bond being lower, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are the only set that are rising. Gold has traded as low as 1465 in nearing the 1454-1434 structural support area; by its Market Magnet, Gold is 34 points "low" and by its Market Value 56 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's ISM(Mfg) Index and Aug's Construction Spending.
30 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are basically "unch" to lower, the only one barely in the black being the Spoo +0.1%; weakest is Silver -1.7% followed by Oil -1.6% and then Gold -0.6%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the precious metals' robust performance year-to-date, but again cautions for lower prices near-term, noting such technicals as Gold's Short weekly parabolic trend and negative positioning of the "Baby Blues" by Market Trends: a break sub-1490 would open the door down to the 1454-1434 structural support area. The Econ Baro starts the week with Sep's Chicago PMI.
27 Sep '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Silver -1.7% and Oil -1.4% are the BEGOS Markets' weak links whilst to the upside we've Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Gold at present is sub-1500: recall the weekly parabolic trend flipped to Short a week ago and that structural support lies in the 1454-1434 range. At Market Trends, those components with their "Baby Blues" in free-fall are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo. The Gold/Silver ratio is running back up, now at 85.4x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.3x; and the Econ Baro looks to a bevy of incoming metrics including the Fed's favoured inflation gauge of the Core PCE Index for Aug along with that month's Personal Income/Spending and Durable Orders.
26 Sep '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: At present no one BEGOS Market is changed beyond 0.4% in either direction: to the upside the Bond is +0.4% and to the downside Oil is -0.4%; within those ranges, the EuroCurrencies are weak but the PMs are firm; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fresh fall whilst those for Silver move to their lowest reading (-18%) since 06 Jun. The Euro is getting quite low vis-à-vis its Market Magnet. Due for the Econ Baro are Aug's Pending Home Sales and Q2's final reading on GDP, the expectation remaining for the 2.0% annual pace.
25 Sep '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only the Bond (barely) is higher, +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets being in the red led by Oil -0.6%, Copper -0.5%, and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility remains mostly light as Market Ranges on balance are narrowing. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have halted their fall, having dropped no lower than the -48% level before ratcheting up to (in real-time) -25%; those for Silver however remain falling and have gone sub-0%; meanwhile those for the Spoo have just dropped below the key +80 level suggestive of lower prices near-term, initial structural support at 2947 followed by 2900. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's New Home Sales.
24 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil -0.8% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, and by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower (in real-time) for the first time since the facilities attack in Saudi Arabia: prior to that event, the "Baby Blues" whilst above their 0% axis nonetheless were weakening, thus this may be resumption of such. To the upside the Bond and Spoo both are +0.3%; volatility has backed off to light: indeed at Market Ranges, all 8 components' EDTRs are appearing toppy if not working lower. On the S&P Moneyflow page, all 3 time frames indicate the Index's level as not supported by its flow. Sep's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
23 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag in starting the week: firmest far and away is Silver +2.3%, the Gold/Silver ratio dropping from 84.4x at Fri's settle to now 82.7x, (Gold itself just +0.2%); weakest is Oil -0.9% in trading down to its lowest level (57.37) since the facilities attack in Saudi Arabia; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update points to price having risen, notably into last week's end, despite the negative technicals of the weekly parabolic trend having flipped to Short and the ongoing fall per Market Trends by the "Baby Blues". And mind that latter measure for Copper as 'tis rolling over following an ascent to no higher than +62% (vs. making it to +80%).
20 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Save for "unch" Euro, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, but not by much, the leader being Silver +0.5% followed by Gold and Oil both +0.3%; volatility is mostly light with the Swiss Franc leading the ETR tracings at 70%, but the only other component exceeding a 50% tracing being Copper at 60%. At Market Trends, wherein we've already pointed to Gold's plunging "Baby Blues", those for Silver look to cross sub-0% come Mon rendering that 21-day linreg trend as negative. No data is due today for the Econ Baro, however its upward turn these past 2 weeks appears quite pronounced, the Fed's rate cut notwithstanding.
19 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: With the anticipated 0.25% FedFunds cut and what the future may hold "as warranted" behind us -- the S&P 500finishing the session after it all +1 point -- we now find the BEGOS Markets mixed, Oil +1.4% up the most followed by the Swiss Franc +0.6%, and the Spoo and Copper both -0.2% as the weak links; volatility is light-to-moderate save for the robust movement in the Swiss Franc in tracing 130% of its EDTR. The Gold/Silver ratio which 2 weeks ago found itself sub-80x is back up to 84.6x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is a whopping 35.7x. For the Econ Baro we've Sep's Philly Fed Index, Aug's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Q2's Current Account Deficit.
18 Sep '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Fed day 'tis for a 0.25% Funds rate reduction. And for the BEGOS Markets only the Bond +0.4% and Oil +0.3% are higher; lowest is Silver -1.0% followed by Copper -0.6%; volatility not surprisingly is mostly light. Oil's (Oct) low yesterday of 58.46 was below its high last Tuesday (a week ago) of 58.76: whilst that doesn't "close the gap" to Friday's close of 54.82, it did place pricing marginally back into the recent pre-Saudi Arabia event trading area. Today, Oil's cac vol is moving from Oct into Nov and by Market Values, price is now only 3 points above its smooth valuation line as well as having snapped back to its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Housing Starts/Permits.
17 Sep '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Not a-typically we are seeing some reversal of yesterday's moves which were significantly driven by the strike on Saudi Arabia: Oil has ceased to increase, at present -0.3% following Mon's +12.9% increase; weakest is Copper -0.9% and firmest is the Bond +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate as focus to some degree turns toward tomorrow's FOMC statement/Powell presser. Per Market Values, Oil is some 6 points above its smooth valuation line, as was the case back in Apr and as well in Oct of a year ago, price then retreating in both instances, (it "being different this time" notwithstanding). Per Market Values, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" have crossed above their -80% axis indicative of higher levels near-term. Sep's NAHB Housing Index and Aug's IndProd/CapUtil are due for the Econ Baro.
16 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: "Facts, Hercule, Facts!" Circumventing the media exaggeration, let's update the directionally-anticipated BEGOS Markets gaps post-Saudi Arabia oil facility drone strikes. Oil is +8.6% (not "20%"), Silver is +2.4%, and Gold is +1.0%; the balance of the bunch are changed by less than 1.0% either way at present; further, save for Oil's EDTR tracing of 232%, volatility by the EDTR tracings is moderate, not unlike many other days. Those are the facts. The Gold Update points to our "aggressive" high of 1526 for this year as having become the "centerpiece" price 'round which trading has oscillated for the last month, (see the chart therein). Due for the Econ Baro in starting the week is Sep's NY State Empire Index.
13 Sep '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: A busy session for the BEGOS Markets as the EuroCurrencies roll their cac vol from Sep into Dec as does that for the Spoo; the Econ Baro looks to 6 inputs including Sep's UofM Sentiment, Aug's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus Jul's Business Inventories. And only the Bond -0.4% is in the red, the firmest component being Copper +1.0% followed by the Spoo +0.5%: the latter at 1322 is just 7 points from its all-time high of 1329 (26 Jul) and per Market Trends has the best upside 21-day linreg consistency by the "Baby Blues", albeit per Market Values, price (in real-time) is showing as some 91 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; the S&P's "live" P/E is 35.9x.
12 Sep '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Within the hour at 04:45 PT comes an ECB policy statement expected to further reduced its already negative lending rate, potentially embark on a new QE path, and perhaps adjust member banks' reserve requirements; Draghi speaks at 05:30 PT. Ahead of this, all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil -1.1%, are higher, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper +1.6%, Silver +0.5% and Gold +0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper's EDTR tracing being 122%. From the Market Rhythms page, Oil's 2-hr. EMA (corrected from MACD) signals have been sporting profitable follow-through. Aug's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Sep '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Silver +0.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.5% and then Oil + 0.3%; the Eurocurrencies are the mild weak links and volatility is light-to- moderate. The PMs' upward day is within the near-term milieu of their "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) extending their declines, those for Gold specifically confirming (as noted yesterday) the 21-day linreg trend swinging from positive to negative: currently 1501, there is structural support for Gold at 1467. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's PPI and Jul's Wholesale Inventories.
10 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have a downside bias, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper -0.7%, Silver -0.5% and Gold -0.4%; firmest is Oil +0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold/Silver Ratio is 83.3x and the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.3x. At Market Trends the PMs "Baby Blues" are increasing their downside pace, sufficiently so that Gold's 21-day linreg trend may turn negative by tomorrow; price has traded below the 1500 level (1495 low) for the first time since 13 August. At Market Values, Gold has returned to sit (in real-time) precisely on its smooth valuation line after being better than 100 points above it 2 weeks ago.
09 Sep '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: A comparatively less-volatile session to the begin the week this time 'round for the BEGOS Markets, EDTR tracings ranging from 68% for Silver down to just 21% for the Spoo. Both the Spoo and Gold are +0.2% whilst the weak link is the Bond -0.5%. The Gold Update paints a bit of a near-term negative picture for the PMs as by Market Trends their respective "Baby Blues" have moved below the key +80% axis level, Silver's price late in the week dropping at nearly triple the rate of Gold's pullback. Due late in today's session for the Econ Baro is Jul's Consumer Credit.
06 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: From Silver's week-to-date high on Wed at 19.75, price has plummeted as much as 8.2%, this session's low thus far at 18.12; the white metal's net change for today at present is -2.8%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Oil -1.7%; only the Spoo +0.4% is higher. Volatility ranges from light for the Spoo by its 31% EDTR tracing to robust for Silver by its 135% tracing. The Gold/Silver ratio having fallen sub-80 earlier in the week is now back up at 83.0x. The "live" P/E for the S&P is 36.0x, and given the Spoo's EDTR is 50 points, a strong up day could near the all-time high of 3029. 'Course, in the balance for it all is the Econ Baro's Aug jobs daat, the consensus for which is payroll creation of 145k, below both the 12-month average of 192k and the level a year ago of 270k.
05 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with mostly moderate volatility, the upside leaders being Copper +1.0% and the Spoo +0.9%, the downside being led by Silver -1.9% followed by Gold -0.7%: as noted yesterday, Silver has joined Gold by the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having slipped below their respective +80% axes. At Market Values, despite the Spoo's current strength, price has only just returned up to meeting (in real-time) its smooth valuation line; (obviously the S&P itself remains excessively expensive, the "live" P/E at 35.7x). Much is due for the Econ Baro including Aug's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svcs) Index, Jul's Factory Orders, and the revision to Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
04 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.2% are negative amongst the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +1.5% followed by Oil +1.2% and then the Spoo +0.8%; volatility spans from light for Oil with just a 38% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 110% tracing. The Gold/Silver ratio is 79.6x, (live reading): it has not posted a settle that low since 10 August 2018. At Market Trends, despite Silver being higher (+0.2%), its "Baby Blues" have joined those for Gold in slipping below the key +80% axis, such rule being a harbinger of lower price levels near-term. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Trade Deficit; late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
03 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Updating this 2-day GLOBEX session finds Copper -2.2% the weakest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Oil -2.0% and then the Spoo -0.7%; firmest are the PMs with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.6%; overall session volatility is moderate-to-robust, the widest EDTR tracers being Copper at 181% and the Euro at 128%. As noted yesterday, despite Gold being firm, its "Baby Blues" by Market Trends are working lower; indeed those for the EuroCurrencies are outright plummeting, the Euro trading below the 1.10 level for the first time since May 2017. Aug's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jul's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro; Vehicle Sales roll in as the session proceeds.
02 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session (for settle tomorrow given the Stateside physical bourses' holiday today) finds the Spoo "unch" following a material gap-down opening extending to as much as -31 points (-1.0%) on weekend TariffTalk for China, Gold in turn gapping up to as much as 1544 before being presently +0.3% at 1534. The Gold Update points to Silver's up-streak out-pacing Gold, but that the white metal may lose her grip should the yellow slip as its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are lower yet again. Still, Gold is the session's firmest BEGOS Market, the weakest being Copper -0.5%, and volatility is moderate, likely to become more robust given Tuesday's full session in waiting.
30 Aug '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo +0.7% and Silver +0.5% are in the black (an unusual pairing), the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets to the downside, the weakest being Oil -1.2% and the Bond and Swiss Franc both -0.3%; volatility is mostly light, save for Silver having traced 99% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) slipped to +81%: a break below +80% would suggest lower prices ahead, as we've been anticipating for Gold, such slide not having been made manifest despite of the "Baby Blues" continuing to slip there (now down to +69% in real-time). A bevy of data is due for the Econ Baro including Aug's Chi PMI and Jul's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation read.
29 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Gold and the EuroCurrencies are lower by some -0.1% to -0.2% with the balance of the BEGOS Bunch in the black led by the Spoo +1.1% and then Silver and Copper both +0.9%, (the Gold/Silver ratio having eroded to 83.0x, albeit still extremely high by historical standards). Session volatility is mostly moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. Gold's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have again inched lower as price nonetheless remains (in real-time) some 87 points above its smooth valuation line at Market Values. The Bond's cac vol is rolling from Sep into Dec. The Econ Baro looks to the 2nd of Q2 GDP's 3 readings plus Jul's Pending Home Sales.
28 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is again comparatively light vis-à-vis the recent EDTR increases, and save for Silver +0.7%, net changes at present are mild, the balance of the bunch differing by just 0.0% to 0.2%. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are lower for their 7th straight session, price itself having not let materially go to the downside. At Market Values, Gold's distance above its smooth valuation line is (in real-time) 100 points "high", as is the Bond nearly 10 points "high": both such positions are extreme relative to past readings. Cac vol for both Silver and Copper is moving from Sep into Dec.
27 Aug '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss Franc -0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, the firmest being Oil +1.1% followed by the Bond and Silver both +0.4%; volatility is light -- within the context that per Market Ranges -- EDTRs have expanded over the last month. The Spoo's daily EMA has negatively crossed: this is quite a ponderous study (the crossover being just the 8th in nearly 3 years) which per the current Market Rhythms list can lead to substantive profits; however cash management is vital if following this one (as it ought be with all signals). Aug's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
26 Aug '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Significant volatility marks the start of the week for the BEGOS Markets with 6 of the 8 components having already traced in excess of their daily EDTRs. Safe haven products gapped higher, Gold notably to a 6-year high at 1565 before reversing to as low as 1535, whilst the Spoo fell to 2810 before reversing up to 2888. Firmest at present are Oil and Silver, both +1.2%, whilst weakest is the Swiss Franc -0.5%. The Gold Update points to dip-wariness given price's "Baby Blues" have slipped below their +80% axis (see Market Trends), but that the overall picture remains positive. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's Durable Orders.
23 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of Powell's address in Jackson Hole (07:00 PT): up the most is the Spoo +0.4% and down the most is the Swiss Franc -0.4%; volatility not surprisingly is mostly light. As anticipated by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) dropped below their +80% level, confirmation of which come day's end technically portends lower prices near-term, (typically within a month); still, Gold's firmness these past three months has of course been driven more by a fundamental awakening. Coincident with the Fed Chair's address are Jul's New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.
22 Aug '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for Oil +0.4% and the Bond "unch", the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver -0.9%, followed by Copper -0.8% and Gold -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro leading the EDTR tracings at 91%; least rangy is the Spoo with just a 35% tracing. Market Values finds Gold's "Baby Blues" lower yet again, the real-time reading being +81%: +80% is the arbitrary line-in-the-sand between maintaining a firm uptrend vs. its consistency breaking apart. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Leading Indicators.
21 Aug '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Like yesterday, BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the only EDTR tracing exceeding 50% to this point being that by the Bond at 69%. But in mirror to yesterday, the economically-driven components are the winners, led by Oil +1.2% and the Spoo +0.8%; the safe havens are the losers with the Bond and Gold both -0.4%. The latter's "Baby Blues per Market Trends have again notched lower (at +86% in real-time). By the Market Values page, both the Bond and Gold still appear as quite "high" whilst the Spoo shows as 100 points "low", (notwithstanding the excessively high "live" P/E at 33.5x as low interest rates proliferate). Jul's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro; the FOMC's 30-31 Jul meeting minutes arrive late in the session.
20 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Comparable "quiet" describes the BEGOS Markets given volatility is light, (again within the context that EDTRs have notably increased per the Market Ranges page). Still by net change, the safe havens are the leaders, firmest being Silver +0.9% followed by Gold +0.8% and the Bond +0.5%; the economically-driven components are the losers, the weakest being Copper -0.8%; that noted, per Market Trends the red metal's "Baby Blues" are commencing an upward curl. Those for the yellow metal have (in real-time) kinked lower, albeit they're still above the +80% level: nonetheless, a key level to mind over the ensuing days, which if downside-eclipsed would portend lower prices.
19 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.0% and Copper +0.9% are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders to begin the week, one for which Econ Baro inflow is sparse and the highlight of which is the Fed with its 30-31 Jul meeting minutes (Wed) and Powell at Jackson Hole (Fri). The PMs (not surprisingly per The Gold Update) are pulling back, Silver -1.3% and Gold -0.9%. Volatility is mostly moderate. Yields are rising for the 2nd straight day, albeit the Market Values page still finds the Bond some 9 points "high" and Gold some 90 points "high". Our finalized Q2 Earnings Season page depicts just 53% of 2,070 reporting companies having bettered their bottom lines over Q2 of a year ago.
16 Aug '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: For the BEGOS Markets 'tis up with those economically-driven and down with those of safe haven status: the upside leader is Oil +1.4% whilst weakest is Gold -0.8%; tomorrow's Gold Update shall review why we selected 1526 as a high for this year, price having since been stuck right 'round that price. Session volatility is moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Sep into Oct. Copper at 2.5950 is smack on its most dominant Market Profile price for the past two weeks. The Econ Baro closes out a busy week with Aug's UofM Sentiment and Jul's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Aug '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility in the context of the ramped-up EDTRs (see Market Ranges) is moderate. Firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.6% and weakest is Oil -1.5%. Yesterday's selling in stocks was sufficient to move the "live" P/E of the S&P down to (a still extremely expensive) 32.2x; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 148 points "low"; by Market Magnets 'tis 62 points "low" albeit 'twas 141 points "low" as of 05 Aug; and by Market Trends, the Spoo's descending "Baby Blues" real-time reading is -65%, (i.e. we'd expect -80% in the balance). For the Econ Baro we've a busy day: 10 metrics are due, highlighted by expectations for slowing in Aug's Fed (NY and Philly) surveys, as well as in both Jul's Retail Sales and Q2's Productivity.
14 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The StateSide 2-yr. yield has provisionally moved above that of the 10-yr.; Germany's annualized Q2 GDP pace comes in at -0.1%. The economic components of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Oil and Copper both -1.4%, the safe have components are higher led by the Bond +1.2%; save for the Bond's 106% EDTR tracing, volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo (at present 2905) by its Market Profile is centered across its past two weeks trading range, the key overhead resistor being 2928. Jul's Ex/Im pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets leaders with Silver +2.1% and Gold +1.0%, (their respective ratio thus dropping to 88.4x, albeit still extremely high by historical standards, the average from 2001-to-date being 64.6x). Weakest is the Spoo, but by just -0.2%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. Gold yesterday reached our "aggressive" forecast high of 1526 and thus far in this session has traded up to 1546; by Market Values, today Gold shows as 130 points "high" and the Bond as nearly 10 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jul's CPI.
12 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The biggest moves at present to start the week are in mirror form, the Bond +0.7% and the Spoo -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold is higher, Silver is lower, in turn pushing the Gold/Silver ratio back up to 89.5x. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal not having quite (yet) reached our "aggressive" forecast high of 1526, but this could be an area of consternation (as was after the case of achieving 1434 for some 5 weeks); as well, the Market Values page shows Gold being some 100 points "high". A busy week of 18 incoming metrics begins for the Econ Baro with Jul's Treasury Budget late in the session.
09 Aug '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Toward week's end we've further slowing in the volatility of the BEGOS Markets, again relative to the recent Market Ranges increases; only two components at this reading have exceeded 50% of the EDTR tracings: Silver at 56% and Oil at 54%; narrowest is the Spoo at 38%, although it is the only market in the red at -0.7%; firmest is Oil at +0.7%. Still, given yesterday's equities rise, the Spoo rather swiftly reached the 2916.25 MRT as was signaled by the 6-hr. MACD. With a week to run in Q2 Earnings Season, only 64% of the S&P 500 constituents having bettered their Q2 of a year ago. Jul's PPI comes into the Econ Baro.
08 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is slowing, albeit that is relative to Market Ranges having notably increased of late: the EDTR with the most tracing thus far this session is 66% for both the Bond and Copper, (the first day this week with no tracings having exceed 100% 'round this time). Up the most are both the Bond and Spoo, +0.2%: off the most is Oil -0.6% followed by Silver -0.5%. The Spoo's 6-hr. MACD signaled to the LongSide (at 12:00 yesterday from 2884.25) for an MRT of 2916.25 ($1,600/cac). Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Aug '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Gold +1.1% is trading above the 1500 level for the 1st time since 12 April 2013; strongest of the BEGOS Markets is Silver +2.4% at 16.850; weakest is Oil -0.3%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust; mind the Market Ranges page for noting increasing EDTRs. At Market Values, Gold's (real-time) reading is nearly 100 points "high", apropos of a this being a true breakout vs. overvaluation of a still very undervalued asset. The Dollar is torn between a rising Yen and falling EuroCurrencies. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Jun's Consumer Credit.
06 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: From "worst to first" goes the Spoo, at present +1.1% with China eliciting a reference point for its currency; the Bond -0.4% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" continue to ratchet down, whilst those for Gold despite price's upside session yesterday have (in real-time) kinked lower. As described in The Gold Update, price need firm 'round the 1490 level for us to run with our "aggressive" forecast high for this year of 1526. Silver was not as strong yesterday as was Gold, evidenced by the Gold/Silver ratio now back above 90x.
05 Aug '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: China's currency weakening is boosting the PMs, Silver +1.7% and Gold +0.3%; The Gold Update cautions for some pullback in Silver (structural support in the mid-15s) given the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends having dropped below their +80% (which generally leads to lower levels), something of which to be aware once this geo-political event falls from the headlines. Off the most is the Spoo -1.6%. Volatility is robust, save for Oil which has traced but 47% of its EDTR. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 Aug '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility remains ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, this session's EDTR tracings thus far ranging from 59% for the Spoo to 133% for the Bond. Up the most at present is Oil +1.6% and down the most is Silver -0.8%. 'Course all these alacritive swings are in the wake of the FedFunds cut and TariffTalk: earnings get little mention anymore, our "live" P/E of the S&P still very expensive at 35.5x; as for Q2 Earnings Season, of the 350 S&P 500 companies having reported, 66% have bettered their their bottom lines vs. Q2 of a year ago. A heavy dose (9 metrics) of incoming data hits the Econ Baro today, highlighted by Jul's payrolls and Jun's Trade Deficit.
01 Aug '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.4%, today post-Fed we've nothing but red, obviously meaning the Dollar continues getting the bid. And the PMs are paying the price for this "mid-cycle" FedFunds rate cut with Silver -1.8%, followed by Gold -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The selling in the PMs these last 2 sessions has kinked the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) lower for both metals, those for Silver in real-time below their +80% level such that we'd look for further fallout there. Jul's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending come into the Econ Baro.
31 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver -0.6% has encountered reasonable profit taking considering how well the white metal has done of late, the present price of 16.490 on this final day of Jul being +8.7% from where it settled back on 01 Jul (15.175): 'tis the weakest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are fairly muted with the Fed's 0.25% rate cut/FOMC statement/Powell presser in the balance; volatility is light. The Euro's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have begun (albeit almost imperceptibly) to turn up from their -80%, price in a mild rise these last 4 trading sessions. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's ADP jobs data and the Chi PMI, plus Q2's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jul '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper -0.8% and the Spoo -0.3% are the downside standouts at present, whilst to the upside 'tis Oil +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the biggest EDTR range tracer being Copper at 82%, but with those for the other two metals and Oil just in the 30% range. Volume for Gold is moving from the Aug cac to that for Dec with a "contango" of +13 points, which as pointed out in The Gold Update is the largest Aug/Dec rollover difference since at least 2001, suggesting bullishness. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Consumer Confidence, plus Jun's Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, as well as Core PCE Inflation, the FOMC's favoured such measure as they commence their 2-day policy meeting today.
29 Jul '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Little changed on light volatility are the BEGOS Markets, the Bond up the most at +0.2% and both the Euro and Oil the weakest -0.1%. The current list on the Market Rhythms page is 15 studies, however none per Fri's EOD run had triggered. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's state of basically flatlining these past two week, as well as the white metal's recent surge having slowed. The Fed's 0.25% rate cut (come Wed) has been priced into the FedFundsFutures for some time (the statement and presser notwithstanding); still the Econ Baro looks to 18 incoming metrics as the week unfolds.
26 Jul '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of the Econ Baro getting its 1st peek at Q2 GDP: Oil +0.8% is again the biggest gainer, the weakest component at present being Copper -0.5%; volatility is light, underscoring the focus on the GDP release. Despite the Spoo reaching a record high yesterday, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have (in real-time) kinked to their lowest level (+53%) since 20 June; the Spoo is 50 points (per Market Values) above its smooth valuation line and the P/E of the S&P remains excessively (understatement) high at 32.4x.
25 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is up the most of the BEGOS Markets with Copper 2nd most +0.6%; Silver -0.4% is the weakest of the bunch, (Gold is "unch"); volatility is light-to-moderate. Our MRT of 153^09 is nixed for the Bond as the 6-hr. MACD has turned back up on itself, and by Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have moved into a sideways stuttering pattern. Across the 8 components, only Oil's Baby Blues are accelerating lower. Jun's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro, and the ECB announces it policy stance followed by Draghi's press conference.
24 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver +0.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.6%; weakest is Oil -0.5%; volatility again is mostly moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is lower still to 86.2x, (obviously still extremely high by its historical standard). Per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" which have been falling for some 3 weeks have kinked higher in real-time, the overall 21-day linreg trend still mildly up; the blue dots for Silver, of course, turned up better than a week back. The Bond has triggered 2 MRTs to the ShortSide, one being the 12-hr. Price Oscillator, the other being the 6-hr. MACD: our preference is for the latter, which from 154^09 signal price targets 153^09 ($1,000/cac per the present Market Rhythms list). Jun's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Save for Silver and the Spoo, both +0.3%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are in the red, but not overly so, the weakest being Oil -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate. Recall that earlier this month, all 8 components had been in 21-day linreg uptrends: now per the Market Trends page, 4 of those are down, namely for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil. By Market Values, both the Bond and Euro are relatively "low" vis-à-vis their typical distance from their respective smooth valuation lines. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Existing Home Sales.
22 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver and Oil, both +1.1%, lead the BEGOS Markets into the new week; Copper -0.3% is the weak link; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes Silver's gearing up toward catching up to Gold, (the yellow metal last week rising 0.6%, but the white metal gaining 6.5%), their ratio in turn dropping from its recent high of 93x to now 87x, (the average since 2001 being 65x). The Spoo is +0.5%, however its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating their decline; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 32.3x; thus far in Q2 Earnings season, 60 of the S&P 500 constituents have reported with 75% having beaten estimates, but less so, 68% having actually improved over Q2 of a year ago.
19 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Copper has been the BEGOS Market's big winner this session: presently +1.6%, 'tis traded as high as 2.7775, nearly 3¢ above our "guesstimate high if an up day" (from the webpage) of 2.7495 and had traced 151% of the EDTR. Only Oil +0.8% also is in the black; Gold -0.7% is weakest of the bunch, followed by the Euro -0.4% and then Silver -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (at present 1438) made a marginal high for the at 1454 in concert following the reported Iranian drone downing by the US, such geo-political news swiftly falling from the FinMedia radar (and as is noted in The Gold Update "...the mid-1400s were fraught with all kinds of trading consternation from April into May of 2013"). UofM's Jul Sentiment Survey comes due for the Econ Baro.
18 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo reached the "guarded" MRT of 2980.75: price has steadied (+0.1%) in the new session, albeit per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" in real-time have notably dropped below their +80% axis (to +72%), indicative of lower prices near-term term. Otherwise the rest of BEGOS Markets again are mixed with Oil +1.1% the firmest, and Gold -0.6% the weakest; Silver however is +0.4%, marking a 4th consecutive session ('round this hour) of it being higher whilst Gold is lower. Volatility is moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Aug into Sep. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Philly Fed Index and Jun's Leading Indicators.
17 Jul '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo's 8-hr. MACD confirmed a negative cross (yesterday at 16:00 PT) from that period's opening of 3006.75: per the Market Rhythms list, that gives us an MRT of 2980.75 ($1,300/cac), however we're guarded on this one given the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) recently regained the +80% level. 'Tis a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets with Copper, the Swiss Franc and Gold all a bit down, with the balance up. the most so being Oil +0.8%; this is the 3rd straight session which finds Gold lower and Silver higher, their ratio slipping sub-90x to 89.7x, (still extremely high, historically). Session volatility is again light-to-moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jul '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: As we type, the Spoo is "unch", even as "big bank" earnings have been reported; Oil +0.6% is the BEGOS Markets best performer, the weakest being the Euro -0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Whilst not "officially" a BEGOS component, the Yen has been producing very nice intra-day swings by its various of the Market Rhythm technical studies we follow (2-hr. Parabolics, 1-hr. MACD, etc.). Per yesterday's comment, the EuroCurrencies' 21-day linreg trends are now down with Copper looking like the next one to so turn. 'Tis a busy session for the Econ Baro as it looks to Jul's NAHB Housing Index, Jun's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, as well as May's Business Inventories.
15 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: In the worst case for the BEGOS Markets, the Bond, Euro, Gold and Oil all are "unch" in to this point in the new week; up the most is Copper +0.9% followed by Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes price having gone nowhere through the past two weeks beyond being choppy despite the underlying headlines hype. Per our prior comment, the Bond's 21-day linreg trend is now down; as well by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are notably falling for the precious metals and the EuroCurrencies. Jul's NY Empire State Index comes into the Econ Baro.
12 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Today, only Oil -0.1% is lower, the best BEGOS Markets performers being the Swiss Franc and Copper, both +0.5%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, all 8 components had been in 21-day linreg uptrends for nearly three weeks (some since early May), however the first to have cracked is the Euro, with the Bond not far behind, the latter albeit some 5 points below its smooth valuation line per Market Values. As for MRTs, a couple have triggered to the Long side: for Oil (daily Parabolics) and the Spoo (8-hr. MACD); but with both markets appearing "high" by various measures, we're purposely overlooking them. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's PPI.
11 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.1% is lower amongst the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of which is Oil +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Rub not thy eyes, the Spoo really is trading in the 3000s, the "live" P/E for the S&P now up to 33.4x: mind our Earnings Season link as those for Q2 unfold. Despite Chair Powell's dovish lean (he today facing the Senate Banking Committee), the Bond is not recovering from its recent slide, and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating their fall. An expected benign CPI for Jun comes due for the Econ Baro as does that month's Treasury Budget.
10 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: A double dose of Fed as Chair Powell begins the 2-day testimony (today before the House Financial Services Committee) followed by the FOMC's 18/19 June meeting minutes. Ahead of this finds Oil + 1.3% and Copper +1.1, the EuroCurrencies barely up, and the balance of the bunch lower, the Bond being both the weakest -0.4% and the most rangy with a 105% EDTR tracing; otherwise volatility is moderate. Per Market Ranges, those for all 8 components are either ticking lower or outright falling. The Econ Baro looks to May's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Jul '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only Oil +0.7% is higher amongst the BEGOS Markets, the weakest of which is Copper -1.2% followed by Gold -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) have confirmed dropping below their +80 axis, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Including the Spoo in real-time, all 8 component's "Baby Blues" are now in decline: some catalytic down-push may result from Chair Powell's 2-day Congressional testimony which begins tomorrow. Otherwise, the Gold/Silver ratio is 92.5x, the S&P's "live" P/E is 32.8x, and the Econ Baro continues its dive.
08 Jul '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As had been noted on the Markets Rhythms page, its daily updating is now in effect: attractive candidates at present include Copper's daily EMA, Oil's daily Moneyflow, the S&P (Spoo's) daily EMA, and the Swiss' daily EMA. Specific to starting the new week, only the metals triumvirate is higher, led by Copper +0.6%, the Bond is "unch' and the weakest component is Oil -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes our ongoing expectation for near-term churn; it also notes the continued "record" divergence between the rising S&P and declining Econ Baro, as well as citing all 8 BEGOS Markets being in 21-day linreg uptrends, but our being wary of several "Baby Blues" tracks running out of puff. Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro and Q2 Earnings Season begins.
05 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session continues for the BEGOS Markets, the "once above 3000" Spoo now in the red as are all 8 components, the weakest being Copper -1.2%, followed by Oil -1.0% and Silver -0.6%; volatility is moderate. With weakening German Factory Orders and a buzz of ECB stimulus easing in the air, the Euro has traded down to its lowest level (1.13190) since 20 June. Still, all of the BEGOS bunch are in 21-day linreg uptrends: however, the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) are dropping for the EuroCurrencies, Silver, Copper and Oil. Jun's payrolls data comes into the Econ Baro.
04 Jul '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: What a milestone StateSide for the "4th of July": the Spoo for the 1st time ever is trading at 3000, indeed as high as 3006. Bourses are closed here but the BEGOS Markets nonetheless work their 2-day session for Fri settle: weakest is Oil -0.4% followed by Copper -0.3%; up the most is the Bond +0.2%. Not unexpectedly, volatility is rather light, albeit Oil has traced 60% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl down, price essentially unable to break above what we've viewed a month or so ago as structural resistance in this 57-60s area.
03 Jul '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Only Silver and Copper, both -0.2%, are lower, the balance of the BEGOS Markets finding Oil +0.8% the firmest: volatility is moderate. Gold briefly re-tapped the 1440s only to have since succumbed to the 1420s: the yellow metal has traced 92% of its EDTR, surpassed only by Silver's 99% tracing; of note, the G/S ratio is up to 93.3x. For Jun, ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index come due for the Econ Baro as do May's Trade's Deficit and Factory Orders. The Spoo has an abbreviated session (to 10:15 PT) whilst the other BEGOS components go the usual distance, followed by the 15:00 opening for the whole bunch. (StateSide's Independence Day tomorrow sees a trading halt between 10:00-15:00 PT).
02 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets firmest components with Gold +0.6% and Silver +0.2%, (the latter still sufficiently lagging by price given the G/S ratio at 91.8x); Copper -0.4% is weakest and volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, both the Euro and Spoo confirmed their "Baby Blues" crossing below their +80% axes yesterday, suggestive of lower levels near-term, (the "live" P/E of the S&P is 32.7x); in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" too are sub their +80 axis, whilst by Market Values, price shows as some 66 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Vehicle Sales.
01 Jul '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil +2.8% is the BEGOS Markets' biggest gainer whilst Gold -- which gapped down 12 points to start the session -- is the largest loser -1.4%; volatility is moderate, although the Swiss Franc has traced 100% of its EDTR. The Gold Update and recent Commentary posts have cited the yellow metal as being some 100 points "high" vis-à-vis our Market Values measure; the current missive looks to Gold's consolidating to allow such stretched technicals to "catch up". Jun's ISM(Mfg) and May's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro.
28 Jun '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Similar to yesterday at this time, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way: Gold and Oil are the furthest from their respective get-gos, both +0.3%; volatility remains light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" confirmed crossing below their +80% axis such that a move near-term from these lower 15s down into the upper 14s would be typical of how prior like crossings have played out. Gold is moving back towards its lower Market Magnet, however by Market Values, price is still some 100 points "high". A bevy a metrics arrive for the Econ Baro, including Jun's Chicago PMI and May's Personal Income/Spending data, which includes the Fed's favoured inflation read per the Core CPE Price Index.
27 Jun '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for Oil -0.6%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility again is light-to-moderate. In real-time, Silver's "Baby Blues" have crossed below their +80% level: should this be the state come close, the notion is to look for lower prices near-term; the white metal at present is 15.28 (Sep), the key underling support band spanning 15.23 to 14.70; by the Market Profile, 14.95 and 14.80 are substantive volume price points. For Gold at present 1408, its Profile supporters are 1401 and 1387, the most important underlying level of course being Base Camp 1377. The Econ Baro looks to Q1's final GDP revision and May's Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold, having yesterday traded as high as 1442 is the session's weakest BEGOS Market component, -1.3%: per the prior 2 comments and The Gold Update, Gold has been in extreme "high" territory per both Market Values and Market Magnets; Gold is also leading the EDTR tracings at 108%, volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise light-to-moderate: the Spoo is up the most at +0.4%. Cac volume for Copper is moving from Jul into Sep and tomorrow ought bring same for Silver. May's Durable Orders com into the Econ Baro.
25 Jun '19, 05:40 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Gold has traded up through our "conservative" forecast high for this year (of 1434) to 1436; as noted in The Gold Update, we shall reassess our "aggressive" forecast for 1526. Early on, session volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest being Gold +0.8% mirrored by Oil being the weakest -0.8%. Again, very near-term Gold is excessively upside-stretched by both Market Values and Magnets. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Consumer Confidence and May's New Home Sales.
24 Jun '19, 11:52 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week comparably subdued, volatility running light-to-moderate with no significant net changes at present: up the most is Oil +0.5% and off the most is Copper -0.2%. The Gold Update highlights price's having finally broken above Base Camp 1377 as the most significant breakout in recent years, Gold at present 1409 with our "conservative" forecast high for this year of 1434 in the balance. Still, Gold's swift move up sees it as near-term stretched by both the Market Values and Market Magnets pages, but as bullish nonetheless for the broader term.
21 Jun '19, 14:57 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit less rangy thus far, albeit both PMs have traced much more than 100% of their respective EDTRs, namely Gold whilst just +0.4% has a 174% tracing, the high of 1415 only 19 points from our "conservative" forecast high for the year (1434); Silver -0.6% has a 157% tracing; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. The white metal as so often we've seen for better than a year remains lacking the yellow metal in pricing pace such that the present Gold/Silver ratio is 91.2x. Meanwhile the "live" P/E for the record high S&P is 32.5x,the Index's level extremely high by so many measures including its juxtaposition to the Econ Baro for which today is due May's Existing Home Sales.
20 Jun '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: Gold is the story: following a purported Iran firing on a US drone, the price of Gold went up like a rocket shot, eclipsing Base Camp 1377 for the first time in three years and then -- upon which we've opined many times --in came the mo-mo traders in driving the price as high as 1397 (+2.4%); at present 'tis +1.6% at 1387; 246% of Gold's EDTR has been traced; more on this material Gold move in the upcoming Sat edition of The Gold Update. All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black , the Dollar being down (no surprise); volatility on balance is robust across the board. Jun's Philly Fed Index, May's Leading Indicators and Q1's Current Account Balance are due for the Econ Baro.
19 Jun '19, 12:52 Central Euro Time: Stateside 'tis FedDay: the consensus is for no FedFunds rate change (current target range being 2.25%-2.50%), albeit the FedFundsFuts are suggesting a rate closer to 2.00%; given such, should there be "no change", debt prices may fall to higher yields. For the moment, the Bond's price is indeed lower -0.3%, as similarly are the metals triumvirate and Oil; the EuroCurrencies are getting a mild bid; session volatility is light-to-moderate. As well, the Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have moved below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels near-term.
18 Jun '19, 14:26 Central Euro Time: Save for the Euro -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are up, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper +0.9% and both Gold and Silver +0.8%; volatility is light-to-robust, with Oil tracing but 26% of its EDTR whilst the Euro had traced 103% and the Bond 145%. At Market Trends, mind Oil's "Baby Blues": they are curling up, albeit from still below the -80% axis; however by Market Values, price is some 10 points low, all such that we expect some near-term rally for Oil; as well, Oil's cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. May's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
17 Jun '19, 14:19 Central Euro Time: The current edition of The Gold Update, No. 500, depicts the extremes of the S&P 500's valuation vs. its lack of earnings substance, the diabolical levels of the 3Ds of Debasement, Debt and Derivatives, and overblown condition of the Gold/Silver ratio (the "live: reading at present being 90.4x) all of having becoming "the norm". As to today, Oil -0.9% is the BEGOS Markets weakest component whilst firmest (barely) is the Euro +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB's Index.
14 Jun '19, 14:50 Central Euro Time: Silver +1.3% is the leader amongst the otherwise mixed BEGOS Markets, which finds Copper -0.5% the weakest of the bunch; Oil, despite the tanker issues in the Gulf is actually -0.1% and the narrowest-traded component with an EDTR tracing of just 46%; rangiest is Gold's 127% tracing. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are higher still albeit price has yet to follow suit as we expect it shall, (proper cash management notwithstanding). Cac volume for the EuroCurrencies is moving from Jun into Sep, as is that for the Spoo. Quite a dose of incoming data is arriving for the Econ Baro, including Jun's UofM Sentiment, May's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Apr's Business Inventories.
13 Jun '19, 11:49 Central Euro Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets big winner to this point, +3.0%; its has traced 105% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is moderate. Only Copper is in the red, -0.5%, albeit at one point the Spoo (at present +0.3%) was -0.5%. The red metal yesterday confirmed its "Baby Blues" crossing above their -80%, generally suggestive of higher levels near-term, despite today's weakness. Of note, US spending through eight months of its fiscal year exceeded $3 trillion for the very 1st time. May's Ex/Im pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Jun '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: A mirror image of what we had at this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' safe haven components getting the bid at the expense of those economically-driven, the biggest wallop hitting Copper -2.5%; the PMs are being benefited the most with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.5%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo -0.4% nonetheless finds its Market Market at +70 which is an extremely high reading; per Market Trends, the Spoo's ascending "Baby Blues" are stalling having come up to the center 0% axis. The Econ Baro looks to May's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 Jun '19, 12:30 Central Euro Time: Similar to this point yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components are getting the bid, led by Copper +0.8% and then Oil +0.6% and the Spoo +0.4%; the balance of the bunch are essentially flat-to-lower with Gold per the Update looking to "fail from the same place" off the most at -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, mind the Bond's "Baby Blues" as they appear poised to fall through their +80% level, which in turn would be indicative of lower prices near-term. Due for the Econ Baro is May's PPI.
10 Jun '19, 12:23 Central Euro Time: MexTariffTalk subduing finds the BEGOS Markets' safe haven components getting sold, the weakest being Silver -1.9% and Gold -0.9%: The Gold Update warns of the yellow metal running out of puff in this same area (1240s-1260s) as it has so repeatedly done over the past two years, price this session having dipped into the 1320s. The white metal's fallout is also highlighted by price having traced 138% of its EDTR; otherwise, volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. The session's firmest component is Copper +0.5%. The Econ Baro has a busy week for incoming metrics beginning tomorrow.
07 Jun '19, 13:54 Central Euro Time: With May's payrolls data in the balance, the Spoo +0.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Copper -0.9%; indeed save for the red metal's having traced 109% of its EDTR, the balance of the components' volatility is basically light. Per Market Values, Oil is some 9 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly distant reading, albeit 'twas 16 points sub-value back on 23 November, a very extreme downside difference at that time. That noted, per the tighter Market Magnets measure, price is but a couple points low. Due as well for the Econ Baro to close out the week are April's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit metrics.
06 Jun '19, 15:17 Central Euro Time: We know the Dollar must be down when all 8 BEGOS Markets are up: they are led by Silver +1.0%, followed by Oil +0.7% and then by Copper +0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the white metal notably having traced 113% of its EDTR; the Gold/Silver ratio is momentarily sub-90x, however anything above 80x we deem as extreme, as is the S&P's "live" P/E of 30.8x. As well, Gold appears quite high by both its smooth valuation line (per Market Values) as well as by its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro finds a wee reduction in Apr's Trade Deficit and Q1's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both as lower.
05 Jun '19, 11:47 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, save for the "unch" Bond, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Gold +0.8% followed by the Spoo +0.6%, these two markets moving toward positive correlation on hopes of FED interest rate easing. The yellow metal has traced 121% of its EDTR; otherwise, volatility is light-to-moderate. May's ADP job creation and ISM(Svc) data come due for the Econ Baro.
04 Jun '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Both Oil and Silver are -0.5%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; firmest is the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. For the 4th consecutive session Gold has posted a higher-high, today to this point at 1334: there is no structural or otherwise resistance from here up to 1349, the 20 Feb high from which Gold then retreated rather than challenge the 1360 level it achieved in both 2018 and 2017, let alone retake Base Camp 1377. Gold per Market Values is some 60 points above its smooth valuation line, (it greatest upside deviation the in the last 12 months is 85 points); and vis-à-vis its Market Magnet, price is some 38 points high which is quite extreme, this renewed safe haven momentum notwithstanding given a Fed rate cut(s) may be in the offing. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Factory Orders.
03 Jun '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo -0.3% is lower in starting the BEGOS Markets' week. Firmest is Oil +1.4%, followed by Gold and Silver both +0.9%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond tracing 137% of its EDTR. Gold has traded as high as 1322: both 1315 and 1325 are nearby prior peaks as denoted in The Gold Update, which highlights price's weekly parabolic trend has having flipped to Long and should price rise on a percentage basis typical to that of past Long trends, we may see the real battle unfold in the 1360s in a battle to retake Base Camp 1377. Note too the Gold/Silver ratio now at 90.0x. May's ISM(Mfg) and Vehicle Sales along with Apr's Construction Spending start a busy week for the Econ Baro. Update: our MRT for the Euro of 1.10625 is nixed as the 12-hr. MACD has swung back to positive.
31 May '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Tariff imposition toward Mexico is pressuring the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components: Oil is -1.8%, the Spoo -1.1%, and Copper -0.5%; Gold is the firmest of the bunch +0.6%, with price's high (1304) having come within 2 points of flipping the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 1306 to be eclipsed). Session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro is only marginally higher (+0.1%) such that the 12-hr. MACD is continuing its negative stance for the 1.10625 MRT. Included metrics for the Econ Baro today are Apr's Personal Income/Spending data along with the Fed's-favoured Core PCE Inflation read.
30 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Save for Copper -0.8%, the BEGOS Markets are lightly changed either way; volatility is moderate. Market Rhythms exhibiting follow-through have been reduced to a mere 7 whose signals are have been meeting that page's criteria ($1,000/cac at least 70% of the time); we've a new MRT for the Euro of 1.10625 based on its 12-hr. MACD crossing negatively from an entry level of 1.11505 ($1,100/cac; current price is 1.11520). The Bond's cac volume is moving from Jun into Sep. The Econ Baro looks to the 2nd read of Q1 GDP, plus Apr's Pending Home Sales.
29 May '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components are to the downside led by Oil -2.0%, Copper -1.1%, and the Spoo -0.6%; the latter's low this session (2782) has not been seen since 11 Mar; the save haven upside movers are led by the Bond +0.4% and Gold +0.3%; the Gold/Silver ratio is at its highest level since 2001: 89.4x. Gold's cac volume is moving from Jun into Aug. Overall session volatility is light-to-moderate. It remains the case at Market Trends that the only two of the bunch in 21-day linreg uptrends are the Bond and the Swiss Franc.
28 May '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Day 2 of the Tue GLOBEX session still finds Copper +0.3% as the firmest component, albeit what was weakest at this time yesterday, Oil, also is now +0.3%; off the most is Silver -0.6%, the Gold/Silver ratio up to 88.7x; volatility for the overall session remains moderate, the only outlier being the Bond which has traced 112% of its EDTR. Per Market Values, the Bond is a full 5 points above its smooth valuation line: typically that is an excessive distance, however during the S&P's 20% correction last autumn, the Bond reached as high as 10 points above that line. The Econ Baro looks to May's Consumer Confidence.
27 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The 2-day (for Tue settle) GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets mixed, the downside leader being Oil -0.7% and the upside leader being Copper +0.5%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal for the past 6 weeks as not really moving far from the upper area of The Box (1280-1240) and that the weekly parabolic Short trend is within range to flip to Long were 1306 to trade by Fri. At Market Rhythms the present group is but a wee 8 studies, indicative of prices having lacked the requisite follow-through to qualify for the list. Our Memorial Day trading halt is from 10:00-15:00 PT, (Stateside physical bourses being closed).
24 May '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil, which in the prior 3 sessions has dropped a cumulative 8.1%, is +0.7%, followed by the Spoo +0.6% and Copper +0.5%; Silver -0.2% is the BEGOS Markets weak link; volatility is light-to-moderate as StateSide we glide into the Memorial Day weekend incorporating a 5-hour trading halt (with the bourses closed) for Monday's remembrance. By Market Values, Oil is 5 points below its smooth valuation line: we've seen it as much as -15 points this past Nov; by Markets Magnets, price is 3 points "low". The Econ Baro concludes a light week of incoming data with Apr's Durable Goods.
23 May '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Our MRT for Oil (65.94) is quickly nixed as the daily Price Oscillator whipsaws back to the negative side; after falling 2.6% yesterday, price is down another 1.4% this session and is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo -0.8%; firmest are the Bond, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Despite the S&P 500 being -4% from its all-time high just back on 01 May, our "live" P/E remains up at an extreme level of 30.7x; similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio is in rarefied air at 88.3x. Today's Econ Baro looks to Apr's New Home Sales.
22 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper -0.9% in trading at 2.6885 has not been this low since 25 Jan; 2nd weakest this session is Oil, -0.5%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and again we've volatility as light-to-moderate. Oil's daily Price Oscillator has triggered an aggressive MRT from an entry level of 62.64 for 65.94, ($3,300/cac); Oil's 21-day linreg trend is down, however per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are rising as such downtrend's consistency becomes less so. The minutes from the 30 April/01 May FOMC meeting are expected to suggest a neutral stance for the balance of 2019.
21 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The safe haven BEGOS Markets return to being out-of-favour whilst leading to the upside are Oil 0.6% followed by the Spoo +0.4%; weakest is Silver -0.4%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, and as was initially mentioned in the current edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are now accelerating their move lower such that the 21-day linreg uptrend may reach its end in the next day or two; still, price itself (1274) remains fairly secured to the upper area of The Box (1280-1240). Apr's Existing Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
20 May '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6% are the BEGOS Markets weak links in kicking off the new week, whilst both Oil +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.2% get the bid; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Rhythms the current list of studies has narrowed to just 10, indicative of components turning back on themselves even in an environment of generally widening Market Ranges. The Gold Update highlights the Gold/Silver Ratio's having reaching a record high level for this millennium. Q1 Earnings Season is in the books: for the 431 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 63% bettered Q1 of a year ago, the first year-over-year comparison under the lowered corporate tax rate established from 2018. Still, the "live" P/E remains a unsustainably high 30.6x.
17 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Euro (as anticipated per yesterday's note) has moved sub-1.12, although contrary to what we penned, it had settled in the 1.11s twice since April, prior to which not having so done since June 2017. Today, save for Oil +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver and Copper, both -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is at a millennium-to-date high of 88.8x, although during January 1991 'twas briefly just shy of 100x. Oil's cac volume is rolling from Jun into Jul. Due for the Econ Baro are May's UofM Sentiment Survey and Apr's Leading Indicators.
16 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil +1.0%, Copper + 0.6% and the Spoo +0.4% are the upside leaders of the BEGOS Markets; weakest is Gold -0.2%; volatility is mostly light. Both the Euro's 12-hr. MACD and Price Oscillator confirmed negative crossings, albeit shallow, at 00:00 PT, suggestive of a move sub-1.12000, an area not traded since June 2017; given per Market Trends the Euro's "Baby Blues" are rising, we're not setting a specific MRT, although both studies are on the present Market Rhythms list. The Econ Baro looks to May's Philly Fed Index plus Apr's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 May '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets differ lightly either way, the largest net change at present being the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the Bond and Gold are in 21-day linreg uptrends, those for the other 6 components all being negative. Prior to yesterday's bounce, the Spoo was nearly 80 points astray of its Market Magnet, (a fairly extreme distance in either direction). Per Market Profiles, the Spoo now at 2834 sports a swath of trading resistance from 2865 to 2892. The Econ Baro takes in a bevy of data today: May's NY Empire State Index and NAHB Housing Index, April's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and Mar's Business Inventories.
14 May '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets components are seeing some firmness: Oil is +1.5%, the Spoo +0.7% and Copper + 0.3%; weakest is Gold -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, albeit per Market Ranges, EDTRs for the most part have risen of late. Per the Market Rhythms page, the current list features a 1-hr. study (such short time frames are rather rare there), it being for the Spoo's Parabolics: as of yesterday's close, 7 of the 10 crossings (since 06 May) have followed through by at least 22 additional points ($1,100/cac) as the Spoo's EDTR has doubled in just the last 2 weeks; (mind one's prudent cash management as with all the listed Rhythms). The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Ex/Im pricing.
13 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo -1.3% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets commencing the seek, followed by Copper -1.2% and then Silver -0.8%: the Gold/Silver ratio is 87.6x, practically an all-time high (88.4x, 21 Nov '08). Firmest are Oil +1.2%, the Bond +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Despite the recent selling in the S&P 500, our "live" P/E is 30.5x and the money needed to move the Index 1 point ($360k) comparatively frothy compared to the year-to-date average ($649). Q1 Earnings Season enters its final week. The Gold Update points to price's ongoing comatose state.
10 May '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher led by Oil +0.9% and Copper +0.6%; only the Spoo -0.3% and the Bond -0.1% are in the red; volatility is light-to-moderate, the one outlier being the Spoo which has traced 108% of its EDTR given newly imposed tariff concerns. The reduced level in the S&P this week has brought the "live" P/E down to (a still very high) 28.9x, and with a week still to run in Earnings Season for Q1, 65% of the S&P companies having reported have bettered their bottom lines from the like period a year ago. Meanwhile the Gold/Silver ratio remains near historical highs at 86.9x. Apr's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
09 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets safe have components are getting the bid, led by the Bond +0.3%, Gold +0.2% and the Swiss Franc +0.1%; weakest is the Spoo -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in realtime) extended down to their 0% axis, provisionally rendering the end of the 21-day trend as being positive for the first time since 11 January after which it had flipped from down to up. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's PPI as well Mar's Trade Deficit and that month's reading on Wholesale Inventories.
08 May '19, 04:08 Pacific Time: Down are the economically-driven BEGOS Markets whilst up are the safe havens. Weakest is Copper -0.6%, followed by the Spoo -0.5%; firmest is Gold +0.5% followed by the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate within the context that EDTRs amongst the components per Market Ranges are mostly expanding. At Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are stretching their downside decline; those for the PMs are accelerating higher, albeit their overall 21-day linreg trends are still negative. The Econ Baro awaits inflation data due Thu and Fri.
07 May '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo fell a full 20 points in its final minute of trading yesterday (at 13:59 PT); thus as we measure all of the BEGOS Markets changes per the 14:00 PT Globex close, the Spoo at present is +5 points (+0.2%), whilst other conventional measures have it as -18 points; only the Bond +0.1% also is higher; weakest is Copper -1.6% followed by Oil -1.4%; volatility runs from light for Gold with just a 30% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 109% tracing. Much of the S&P's skittishness is being blamed on trade/tariff relations with China rather than on the Index remaining excessively overbought by earnings standards, the "live" P/E at 30.9x. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall.
06 May '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo -1.7% is the BEGOS Markets' weakest component, the FinMedia pointing to potential Chinese goods tariff increases per "tweets", well ahead of which concern was being already being voiced over the mid-east rocket barrages; firmest are the Bond +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having been shelved to sit atop The Box (1280-1240) whilst the balance of interest is in chasing stocks, the S&P 500 being terrifically overvalued. As well, Q1 Earnings Season specific to the S&P 500 for 2019 is posting an average improvement of just +1% over the like period in 2018.
03 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly split ahead of Apr's payrolls data: the economically-driven components are higher led by Oil +0.5% whilst the balance are lower, the weakest being the Euro -0.2%; volatility too is essentially light. As noted, per Market Trends only the "Baby Blues" of the Bond and floor-crawling Swiss Franc are not falling; moreover the only one of the bunch with a rising 21-day linreg trendline is the Spoo, which itself by Market Values is 44 points above its smooth valuation line, whereas Gold is 40 points below same. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Apr's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 May '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold's 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, in turn nixing our aggressive MRT for 1302.3, albeit the conservative 1289.3 MRT was achieved; Gold today is -0.4%, 2nd weakest of the BEGOS Markets only to Oil -1.0%; up the most is the Spoo +0.4% followed by Copper +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" for the Bond are not falling; those for the Swiss Franc are crawling across the floor, whilst those for the other 6 components are mostly accelerating lower. Q1's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs along with Mar's Factory Orders are due for the Econ Baro.
01 May '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets metals are all lower, led by Silver -0.5%, Copper -0.3% and Gold -0.1%; firmest are the Swiss Franc +0.3% and the Euro +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Swiss Franc having traced 118% of its EDTR. The 12-hr. MACD for Gold whilst still positive is losing its momentum, the conservative MRT of 1289.3 already reached but the aggressive 1302.3 MRT looking a bit more doubtful; 'course we've the FOMC and Powell in the day's balance. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's ADP jobs and the ISM(Mfg) Index along with Mar's Construction Spending.
30 Apr '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Dollar must be down as all 8 of the BEGOS Markets are "unch" to higher with Oil +1.3% leading the pack followed by good gains in the metals; volatility again is moderate. Gold's 12-hr. MACD continues its positive journey such as to maintain the aggressive MRT of 1302.3, (as noted the conservative MRT of 1289.3 having been achieved); per Market Trends, that (21-day linreg) for Gold is down, however its "Baby Blues" are in ascent for their 5th consecutive session, whilst at Market Values price is some 30 points below the smooth valuation line. We've another busy day for the Econ Baro, due for which are Q1's Employment Cost Index, Apr's Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, and Mar's Pending Home Sales.
29 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only Oil +0.4% and the Euro +0.1% are in the black to start the week for the BEGOS Markets; the metals are the weak link with Silver -0.8% and both Gold and Copper -0.5%; volatility is moderate. Despite price being down, Gold's 12-hr. MACD remains positive, the conservative MRT of 1289.3 having already be reached; the aggressive MRT of 1302.3 remains on the table barring the signal not crossing to negative. As noted, Silver's cac volume is rolling from May into Jul. The Gold Update highlights the oddity of Goldman pushing both Gold and Copper on the Long side for the year's second half, but Silver on the Short side. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with both delayed and current Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE readings.
26 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Markets gainers with Copper +0.5% and Gold and Silver both +0.3%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is a lofty 85.8x; to the downside, weakest is Oil -1.7%, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 121%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Gold's 12-hr. MACD remains positive and the MRTs (1289.3 conservative and 1302.3 aggressive) intact. Copper's daily Price Oscillator has confirmed going negative from the 2.8650 level (basis Jul) for an MRT of 2.8210 ($1,100/cac); Copper's cac volume is rolling from May into Jul, as so shall Silver's do come Monday. Headlining the Econ Baro today is the first peek at Q1 GDP.
25 Apr '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper -1.1% is off the most amongst the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver -0.5%; firmest is Oil +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal having traced 105% of its EDTR. Gold's 12-hr. MACD confirmed a positive crossing (at 00:00 PT) from a price of 1278.3 giving us a conservative MRT of 1289.3 ($1,100/cac) and an aggressive MRT of 1302.3 ($2,400/cac); per Market Values, the yellow metal is (in realtime) 43 points below its smooth valuation line, and price settled yesterday some 9 points below its Market Magnet. Mar's Durable Goods come due for the Econ Baro.
24 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The S&P 500 yesterday posted an all-time closing high (2934); the all-time intra-day high remains 2491 (22 Sep '18). This session finds the BEGOS Markets with just 2 components barely in the black, Copper and the Bond both +0.1%; weakest is Oil -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Our MRT for the Spoo of 2845 was nixed upon the daily MACD confirming a positive cross at yesterday's close; only 2 of the past 5 daily MACD Short signals have reached their targets, whereas 4 of the past 5 Longs have so done. The FinMedia is praising Q1 earnings: with 89 of the S&P 500 companies having reported, 71% have bettered Q1 of a year ago; however our "live" P/E is a perilously high 32.1x.
23 Apr '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: 'Tis again a mixed session for the BEGOS Markets: up the most is Oil +0.4%, down the most are Silver and the Swiss Franc, both -0.4%, the latter leading the EDTR tracings at 109%; the volatility for the balance of bunch is light-to-moderate. The daily MACD for the Spoo still is negative, albeit the crossover thus far is shallow at best: still, the 2845 MRT remains in place. From the Market Values page Gold shows as some 50 points below its smooth valuation line whilst Oil is 6 full points above same. Mar's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
22 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil launches out of the chute, +2.1% to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, as well with a robust EDTR tracing of 184%; the balance of the bunch are comparably docile with no one component presently changed by 0.3% either way and volatility otherwise light; (major bourses in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia continue their long weekend holiday). The Spoo's daily MACD has confirmed a negative cross from an entry level of 2901.00 with an MRT of 2845 ($2,800/cac); The Gold Update again notes the S&P as being "wildly overbought", the P/E excessive and moneyflow thin; the yellow metal itself settled last week in The Box (1280-1240) but has since barely crept above it early on. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's Existing Home Sales report.
18 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: This the final trading session until that for Sun/Mon, albeit tomorrow brings the release of Mar's Housing Starts/Permits. The BEGOS Markets are quite mixed with the Bond best at +0.4% whilst worst is Copper -1.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal leading the EDTR tracings at 136% followed by the Euro at 130%; the latter's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally gone negative and looks to so confirm come 06:00 PT such that the MRT for 1.14160 shall be nixed. Due today for the Econ Baro is Apr's Philly Fed Index, Mar's Retail Sales and Leading Indicators, and Feb's Business Inventories. In making lows for the year, Gold (1277) has returned down into the upper reaches of "The Box" (1280-1240) as 'twill be noted in the Saturday's Gold Update.
17 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only Copper +1.0% is showing any material net move, the balance of the BEGOS Markets otherwise little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro +0.2% does lead the EDTR tracings at 94% and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are rising toward their 0% axis; as well, the 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive in support of our 1.14160 MRT. At Market Ranges one sees their narrowing is stark pretty much across the board, in turn leading to a shorter list of candidates on the Market Rhythms page. Oil's cac vol is rolling from May into Jun. Feb's Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro, plus the Fed releases its Tan Tome.
16 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.3% and Copper "unch", the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, but not by much, the weakest two being Gold and Silver both -0.3% just as they were 'round this time yesterday; volatility is light-to-moderate. Still positive is the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward maintaining our MRT of 1.14160. The "wildly overbought" S&P so remains, its daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics readings all with red "sell" flags for 7 straight sessions, albeit by both Market Values and Market Magnets we've seen worse extremes than as present; still the moneyflow is thinning and the P/E unsustainably high should history again will out. For the Econ Baro we've Mar's IndProd/CapUtil and Apr's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Apr '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil -0.6% along with the metals triumvirate of Copper -0.5% and both Gold and Silver -0.3% are the BEGOS Markets downside leaders; the balance of the bunch are little changed; volatility is light. For the Euro our 1.14160 MRT is still in play per the positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's weekly net settles as tightly within the mid-"Whiny 1290s" these last few weeks, but the S&P's daily classic technical measures as being "wildly overbought". The Econ Baro starts a fairly busy week for incoming data with the Apr's NY State Empire Index.
12 Apr '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: During a portion of yesterday's session, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the red, generally meaning the Dollar is getting the bid; now, save for the Bond -0.5% -- it also having already traced 105% of its EDTR -- the balance of the 7 other components are up, led by Copper +1.9% (hello China trade deal?) and Oil +1.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive with the MRT of 1.14160. The S&P 500 remains extremely overbought by classic technical measures (daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics), along with the frothy moneyflow and beyond-expensive P/E. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's UofM Sentiment and Feb's Ex/Im prices.
11 Apr '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo, just +0.1%, is up amongst the BEGOS Markets; "unch" are the EuroCurrencies, whilst the downside leader is Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate; at Market Ranges and per our 05 Apr note, EDTRs continue narrowing, in some cases to year-over-year lows. The Euro, at present 1.13360, still is maintaining its positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward our 1.14160 MRT. The S&P 500, with our "live" P/E at 31.6x, is near-term extremely overbought by various classic textbook technical measures; moreover, the amount of money to move the S&P 1 point which peaked at over $900k in Jan, continues to drop, yesterday falling into the $400k range. Mar's PPI arrives for the Econ Baro.
10 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, Oil and the Spoo with the most net change at the moment of +0.3%; volatility is light with much high-level fundamentals in waiting, including an "emergency" Brexit summit, the ECB and Draghi (today rather than on the traditional Thu), banking CEOs giving Congressional testimony, and the FOMC's minutes from last month's meeting. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator is maintaining its positive track thus keeping our 1.14160 MRT intact, albeit Draghi's commentary can affect that. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's CPI.
09 Apr '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only the Swiss Franc and the Spoo are lower, and just barely at that, the metals triumvirate again the BEGOS Markets leaders, the firmest of which is Copper +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday at 12:00 PT the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a Long signal from that period's opening level of 1.13280, (at present 1.13460), for an MRT of 1.14160 ($1,100/cac); per Market Profiles, the Euro's most dominant supporter is 1.13000; but as a caution per Market Trends, the Euro's descending "Baby Blues" are contrary to price's recent rising. 'Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro, however Q1 earnings shall begin their appearance.
08 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Market leaders with Copper +1.1%, Gold +0.5% and Silver +0.3%; weakest is the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having recorded its 6th week of parabolic Short trend, albeit price is nor really declining; the piece also cites the divergence between the rising S&P and falling Econ Baro as the most vast since the Baro's inception back in 1998; due for it today is Feb's Factory Orders. Importantly with Q1 Earnings Season commencing, 'tis the first one for which comparison to a year ago will be under like tax cut rules.
05 Apr '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets again are expectedly subtle and lightly mixed either way, Oil being the weakest component -0.4% and Silver the firmest +0.2%; only 2 of the bunch have traced better than 50% (and barely that) of their EDTRs, namely Gold and the Bond. At Market Ranges, save for those same two markets, EDTRs are low looking back through a year ago. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the the Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are accelerating lower, but not as much so for Gold per the real-time reading. 'Course, Mar's payrolls report need be negotiated in about an hour's time.
04 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: A day ahead of StateSide jobs data we've another light-volatility session for the BEGOS Markets which are little changed in either direction: firmest is Oil +0.3% and weakest is Silver -0.4%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 31.3x. At Market Magnets, both Oil and the Spoo appear "high" and the Bond "low". Per Market Trends, 6 of the 8 components are exhibiting 21-day linreg uptrends: only that for Silver and Copper are down. And via Market Values, Oil is still some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line. Beyond Thu's usual Jobless Claims, 'tis otherwise a quiet day for the Econ Baro, the upward divergence from it by the S&P remaining forebodingly stark as ever.
03 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.5% is lower, the balance of the 7 other Markets moving higher with Copper leading the pack +0.9% followed by the Spoo +0.5%; volatility ranges from light for Gold which has traced just 28% of its EDTR to robust as the Bond's tracing is 100%. On the list of Market Rhythms is the Spoo's 1-hr. Price Oscillator for which 9 of its past 10 signals have followed through to a move of at least 20 points ($1,000/cac): the Rhythm's median duration is 2-3 calendar days. Due for the Baro today is Mar's ADP jobs data and the month's ISM(Svc) report.
02 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Light volatility marks the BEGOS Markets with only Copper and Silver having traced a bit better than 50% of their respective EDTRs; Oil +0.5% is the firmest of the bunch whilst weakest is Copper -0.6%. In settling yesterday at 2867, the S&P is just over 70 points from its all-time high of 2940; our call from that level for a 27% correction down to 2154 did reach as far as 20% to 2347, but we've obviously not ruled out the return all the way down to 2154, especially as you know ad nausea the "live" P/E being now 31.6x and the frothy-thin Moneyflow data. In fact per Market Values, the Spoo is only some 56 points "high" above its smooth valuation line, whereas Oil is a 5 full points above its. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Durable Orders.
1 Apr '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Gold Update points to the 3 economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets leading the pack through Q1: this session, the same group are firmly starting Q2 with Oil +1.1% and both Copper and the Spoo +0.6%; volatility is moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. The Gold Update also notes on the Econ Baro graphic therein of it now at the low level which first reached down to in 2008 then saw the S&P's 51% correction into 2009. Due for the Baro today are Mar's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, Feb's Retail Sales and Construction Spending, and Jan's Business Inventories.
29 Mar '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' rocker: 'tis +1.5% and has traced 114% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate with a bevy of incoming data due for the Econ Baro, including Mar's Chicago PMI, Feb's Personal Income and New Home Sales, and Jan's delayed readings on Personal Spending along with the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading. Save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the components are all higher, the 2nd firmest being Oil +1.0%. We've nixed our Spoo MRT of 2789.75 as the 4-hr. Parabolics just confirmed flipping back to Long at 04:00 PT. 'Tis already the final trading day of Q1; (it goes quickly). The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x.
28 Mar '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +0.6% and the mirroring downside leader being Oil -0.6%; volatility is moderate with the Bond leading the EDTR tracings at 76%. Gold's cac volume is moving from Apr into Jun. The list at Market Rhythms has increased: one we're watching is the Spoo's 4-hr. Parabolics which confirmed a flip to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT from an entry of 2809.75 with an MRT of 2789.75 ($1,000/cac). The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.
27 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The save haven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Bond +0.5%; those that are economically-driven are lower, namely Oil -0.9% and both Copper and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 129%. The Bond tapped 150^00 this session, its highest trade since 18 Jan 2018; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating higher and nearing their +80% axis, and yet per Market Values price is only 2 points above the smooth valuation line; but as a near-term caution, price appears well-extended above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro awaits Mar's Consumer Confidence.
26 Mar '19, 06:14 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a mild downside bias; only Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.3%; at this early point of the session volatility is light with only the Bond displaying any material EDTR tracing at 63%. At Market Trends, with the exception of those for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other "Baby Blues" are in ascent. Per Market Values, none of the 5 primary components are significantly away from their smooth valuation lines. Due for the Econ Baro today are Feb's Housing Starts/Permits.
25 Mar '19, 12:59 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week mixed with a bevy of incoming Econ Data for the Econ Baro throughout. Plus-siders include the metals, whilst Oil, the Bond and the Spoo are weaker; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the buoyant, bidding nature supportive of price despite the parabolic Trend having completed its fourth week to the ShortSide; per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are sporting an adroit turnaround to the upside, whilst at Market Values, Gold is actually below (by 16 points) its smooth valuation line.
22 Mar '19, 14:03 Central Euro Time: With Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.1%, one may sense where the BEGOS Markets bid is: the Bond, +0.7, along with Gold +0.2%; volatility is notably robust with 4 of the 8 components tracing beyond 100% of their EDTRs. Per Markets Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are in real-time accelerating their fall whilst price has fallen below the base of the 10-day Market Profile. The amount of money it takes to move the S&P 500 1 point has now been reduced from over $900k in January to below $600k at present; the Index's live P/E is 31.8x. Incoming data for the Econ Baro today includes Feb's Existing Home Sales and Jan's Wholesale Inventories.
21 Mar '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: The red and white metals are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, Copper +1.1% and Silver +0.6%; weakest are Oil -0.3% and less so the EuroCurrencies; volatility again is moderate-to-robust with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 108%; nonetheless, Copper's EDTR is the narrowest 'tis been (0.391 points assigned for today) in better than a year. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are starkly deviating lower from price, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to down. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's Philly Fed Index and Feb's Leading (or by the Baro, lagging) Indicators.
20 Mar '19, 15:47 Central Euro Time: Heading toward the FOMC's "no change" rate decision we've the BEGOS Markets mixed: firmest at present is the Bond +0.3%; weakest is Silver -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, which is a bit unusual pre-Fed. From the current edition of The Gold Update: "[the FOMC] gathers this coming Tuesday/Wednesday (19-20 March) toward deciding to do nothing. For were they to do something -- be it a rate rise that the economy would not be able to sustain, or a rate reduction that would signal they've acknowledged the economy is weakening -- we 'spect either way the S&P 500 would not take it well. Rather, keep the complacency of denial alive as the can is further punted down the road. For 'tis all too fragile to do anything at this point."
19 Mar '19, 12:28 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Components are in the black which tells us (without peeking) the Dollar is working lower. Firmest is Copper +1.0% followed by Oil +0.8%; volatility is moderate. Despite Copper's gain, its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are (in real-time) crossing below their 0% axis as the linreg trend rotates from up to down; as well, the red metal's EDTR of 0.0410 points remains near the year-over-year low of 0.3960 points. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Factory Orders for which consensus expects some improvement.
18 Mar '19, 12:33 Central Euro Time: Only the Bond -0.1% is in the red to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, which are metals-led by Copper +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Apr into May. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal continuing to having a buoying bid in spite of the recent new weekly parabolic Short trend; the missive also highlights the S&P's having risen in the face of the thinning moneyflow, abnormally high P/E ratios, and lackluster Econ Baro, which today looks to the NAHB Housing Market Index.
15 Mar '19, 13:59 Central Euro Time: A weaker and worse-than-expected NY State Empire Index isn't keeping the Spoo down, it presently +0.3% even with Silver +1.0%, Gold +0.5% and the Bond as well +0.3%; only Oil and the Swiss Franc are in the red; volatility is moderate although Silver has traced 102 % of its EDTR. Cac Volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun as First Position is Mon. Still on tap for the Econ Baro this session is Mar's UofM Sentiment Survey and Feb's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization. The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.7x and the moneyflow per point movement continues to decline.
14 Mar '19, 12:01 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -1.5% followed by Gold -1.4%; least weak is the Bond just fractionally negative; volatility is moderate-to-robust with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 120%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics flipped to Long thus nixing our MRT target for 2705.50. That said, we still deem the S&P as significantly expensive by the measures of Moneyflow, notably the declining amount of money it takes to move the S&P 1 point, its P/E ratio, and now again its Market Values reading which in real-time finds the Spoo 72 points above its smooth valuation line. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Ex/Im Prices and Jan's New Home Sales.
13 Mar '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, the PMs and Oil look firm early on with just the Bond mildly lower; volatility appears moderate. CPI, Durables and Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro. The Spoo's daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide, but just barely so.
12 Mar '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond -0.2% and the Spoo "unch", the BEGOS Markets are skewed to the upside led by Oil and Copper, both +1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Copper has traced 102% of its EDTR. The Spoo at 2788 still maintains its Parabolics to the ShortSide with our MRT for 2705.50, albeit a trade today above 2806 ought nix that Target; meanwhile per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their descent. In fact, except for the Bond, none of the Baby Blues for the other 7 components are rising. Jan's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Mar '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets as the week begins; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, keeping intact our MRT of 2705.50; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" whilst still above the 0% axis are accelerating their decline; and although per Market Values the Spoo (in realtime) is smack on its smooth valuation line, the more daunting measures of thinning moneyflow and an all-too-expensive "live" p/e of 28.9x support lower levels. Jan's Retail Sales highlight the Econ Baro's start to a busy week.
08 Mar '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is more ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, which is a bit unusual given the Feb employment data has yet to be released; the metals triumvirate is notably rangy with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, followed by Gold's 85% and then Silver's 70%, the latter leading in the change department at +0.6%; Oil and Copper are the weakest components both -1.2% The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the Shortside: as cac volume is moving from Mar into Jun with 5 points of premium in the new front month, we're adding same to our MRT thus revising it from 2700.50 to 2705.50 basis Jun. Due too for the Econ Baro today are Jan's Housing Starts/Permits.
07 Mar '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: Another mostly light session thus far by volatility, the rangiest EDTR tracing being 65% by Gold, and yet price at present is "unch". For the yellow metal, the top of The Box (1280-1240) seems supportive given the lows of the prior 3 sessions (from yesterday back) have been 1284, 1282 and 1284; 1281 has traded in this session. Firmest is Oil +1.2% and weakest is Copper -0.5%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics have again quickly flipped back to Short effective the opening price of 2770.50: by the Market Rhythms page an aggressive MRT is 2700.50. Jan's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro along with Q4's Productivity data. ECB's Draghi at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets, the rangiest component being Gold with an EDTR tracing of 46%; that for the Swiss Franc is 25%; no one component is at present changed by 0.2% either way. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) below their +80% axis for the first time since 18 Jan; and per the aforementioned froth both herein and in The Gold Update: as of 29 Jan it took $911k to move the S&P 1 point; that has since been reduced to $675k. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's ADP jobs data and Dec's delayed Trade Deficit; in the latter part of the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
05 Mar '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Another split session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the safe havens being down and the economic-drivens being up. The latter are led by Copper +1.2% followed by Oil +0.5%; the Bond and the Swiss Franc both are -0.2%. Volatility is mostly light, save for Copper's EDTR tracing of 101%. We are nixing the Spoo's MRTs for 2759.75 (conservatively) and 2725.25 (aggressively) despite price at present (2793) being below 28 Feb's opening "entry" level of 2795 as yesterday's whipsaw range of 52 points was sufficient to flip the daily Parabolics back to Long, (provisionally by the week's up gap opening and then as confirmed at yesterday's close). That noted, the amount of money to move the S&P itself 1 point continues to dwindle, the Index thus supported only by froth, and certainly not earnings given our 30.5x "live" P/E.
04 Mar '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week quite mixed with volatility ranging from light to robust. The upside leaders are Oil +0.7% and the Spoo +0.2%, whilst to the downside are Copper -0.9% and Gold -0.6%. Despite Oil's rise, its EDTR tracing is just 39%; Copper's is 139%. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded for 2018: for the 463 S&P 500 components having reported, 330 (71%) bettered their bottom lines over 2017's Q4, however as we've noted, in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% bettered). The Gold Update points to price's pullback as healthy given the support of both "The Whiny 1290s" and The Box (1280-1240). Dec's delayed Construction Spending begins the Econ Baro's week.
01 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: This morning is the opposite of yesterday at this time: the safe havens are being offered led by Gold and Silver both -0.4%; getting the bid are Copper +0.8%, the Spoo +0.5%, and Oil +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Today's close shall make official the end of Gold's weekly parabolic Long trend which lasted 24 weeks, 3rd best by duration since 2001. Despite the Spoo being up, its daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide (barring 2813.25 trading today; price at present is 2802.00 and per its page, the "guesstimate high if an up day" is 2806.25). Per a check of economic calendars, items due today for the Econ Baro include Feb's ISM(Mfg) Index, Jan's Personal Income (but not Personal Spending), but both of those metrics as delayed for Dec, along with that month's read on Core PCE inflation.
28 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe havens are getting the bid ahead of our first peek at Stateside Q4 GDP: the Swiss Franc is +0.8% followed by Gold and Silver both +0.4%; down by same is Copper, followed by Oil and the Spoo both -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. After yesterday's note on a lack of mentioning MRTs, we've one that has since appeared worth noting: the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed a flip to Short per this session's opening (2795.25); price this session already has been as low 2781.75, however a conservative target is 2759.75 ($1,800/cac) or as construed from the Market Rhythms page 2725.25 ($3,500/cac). In addition to the GDP, the Econ Baro also looks to Feb's Chicago PMI.
27 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: 'Tis another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with Oil the upside leader at +1.0% and Silver the weakest component -0.4%, the cac volume for which is moving from Mar into May; volatility ranges from an robust EDTR tracing for the Swiss Franc of 114% down to only 38% for the Bond, its cac volume moving from Mar into Jun. We've not mentioned any MRTs in nearly a month: in reviewing those that have qualified in the end-of-day work we've noted a tendency for greater risk amounts in assessing the past recent signals: lending to that notion is the decline in components' volatility per the Market Ranges page as market's turn back on themselves rather than follow-through with continued trend. Fed Chair Powell moves his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee; the Econ Baro looks for Jan's Pending Home Sales and Dec's delayed Factory Orders.
26 Feb '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: We've a more subdued session for the BEGOS Markets as Fed Chair Powell's testimony Senate Banking Committee comes 'round 07:00 Pacific Time. Up the most is Oil +0.2% whilst off the most is Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. With respect to our noting the S&P 500 is supported neither by its components' earnings nor its Moneyflow, the Spoo itself by our Market Values page is better than 100 points above its smooth valuation line as has been the case through most of Feb. Copper's cac volume is moving from Mar into May. Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's Consumer Confidence and Dec's delayed Housing Starts/Building Permits.
25 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets, the the weakest of which is Oil -1.0%, with Copper firmest +0.4%. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal having locked in a 24th straight week of parabolic Long trend: as for what would be a 25th week, Gold need stay north of 1310; at present 'tis 1332. The missive also cites the deteriorating Moneyflow of the S&P 500 as the Index nonetheless moves higher, which by the Spoo looks to be the case come today's open. The Econ Baro begins a fairly busy week with Dec's Wholesale Inventories; the week also concludes Q4 Earnings Season, the weakest of 2018's four quarters. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 29.1x.
22 Feb '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets range from the EuroCurrencies being "unch" to Copper being +1.6% followed by Oil +1.0%; volatility ranges from the Euro having traced just 32% of its EDTR to Copper's 120% tracing. Per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for the PMs, (despite their recent price pops), are notably dropping: those for Gold settled yesterday at +59% but in realtime are now +53% whilst those for Silver had settled at +10% but are now +4%, the latter for the white metal likely affirming the 21-day LinReg trend changing to down come the new week. The Econ Baro has already concluded its week mildly lower.
21 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only the EuroCurrencies are barely not in the red, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being led lower by Silver -0.8% and then Copper -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Silver has traced 121% of its EDTR. From a year ago-to-date the Spoo's average EDTR is 39 points, at present 'tis 30 points, a level for which the actual trading range in the past 10 sessions has been exceeded only 4 times. The on-balance light week for incoming Econ Data brings a good dose of it today for the Econ Baro including Feb's Philly Fed Index, Jan's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales and Dec's delayed Durable Orders.
20 Feb '19, 04:37 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of the bunch actually being Silver +0.3%; the weakest is Oil -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Stocks look to stay quiet (by the "unch" Spoo) to at least start their session at this writing 'round 2778, the S&P 500 having closed Fri at 2776, (no trading Mon) and Tue at 2780. The Econ Baro has little input this week and as noted in yesterday's comment, the earnings results for 2018's weakest quarter are fairly known. Still, Gold this session has traded as high as 1349: that's just 28 points from key goal Base Camp 1377, a level not seen since 06 July 2016. Reclamation of 1377 then opens the door to our conservative forecast for these past two years of 1434.
19 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Day two for GLOBEX settlement today rightly expands the EDTR tracings led by Copper at 105%; both the red metal and Oil are +0.4%, second only to Gold +0.6%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. Silver continues to lack pace, +0.3%, despite being bettered by the other two metals: the Gold/Silver ratio at present is 84.4x. For the S&P 500's Q4 Earnings Season, about 85% of the companies due to report have so done with 73% bettering 2017's Q4, fairly confirming this is 2018's weakest quarter, (each of the prior three quarters showing 85% having improved; see our 05 Feb comment). Our "live" P/E ratio is 29.5x and all three time periods on the Moneyflow page continue to suggest the frothy S&P shall materially come down.
18 Feb '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The two-day session for Tue settlement finds the BEGOS Markets mostly higher, the two exceptions being the Bond -0.1% and the Spoo "unch"; firmest is Copper +0.5% followed by the EuroCurrencies both +0.3%; volatility is light to moderate; the trading halt spanning the two days is 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time. The Gold Update cites the reluctance to sell the yellow metal, its weekly parabolic Long trend now entering what would be a 24th week barring price slipping below 1300, (presently 1328). Per Market Values, Gold is only slightly above its smooth valuation line and equally so above its Market Magnet.
15 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the 2 EuroCurrencies which are only mildly lower, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper +1.2%, and then Gold, Silver and Oil all +0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate except for Copper which has traced 145% of its EDTR. Despite Copper's being firm today, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends for the red metal are in realtime again lower, and the daily MACD confirmed a (albeit scant) negative cross per today's open. Oil's cac volume is moving from Mar into Apr. The Econ Baro completes its week with 6 metrics due, including Feb's NY State Empire Index and UofM Consumer Sentiment, plus Jan's Ex/Im pricing and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
14 Feb '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only the PMs are mildly lower for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Silver -0.2%; otherwise to the upside, firmest is Oil +0.8% followed by Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have fallen below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels ahead: presently 2.80 there is structural support in the 2.73 area; there currently are 7 Copper studies in the Market Rhythms list, however the "net profit of all tests" are not that impressive, indicative that the occasional false signal mitigates a material portion of the true signals. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's PPI and Dec's delayed Retail Sales.
13 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit more settled that they've been at this time the prior two sessions, with volatility light-to moderate. Oil +0.6% is the upside leader; Silver -0.2% is the weak link and is also the rangiest component with a 65% EDTR tracing. Obviously per yesterday's comment we're very wary of the froth in the S&P 500: adding to that, yesterday's 35-point rise in the S&P carried Moneyflow support for just a 22-point rise, and per Market Values, the Spoo is now some 124 points above the smooth valuation line. Over these next 3 days the Econ Baro takes in 15 metrics including today's CPI data for Jan.
12 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round now yesterday, the Swiss Franc is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings, this time at 118%; the currency and the Bond are both -0.4%; only worse is Copper -0.5%. The big gainer is Oil +2.0% followed by the Spoo +0.7% and then the PMs; session volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo is again teasing the upper side of the S&P's "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719) which was completed Mon a week ago: per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 105 points above its smooth valuation line whilst per our Moneyflow page, the quarterly measure through yesterday's close suggests the Index ought be 173 points lower. The "live" P/E is at present 30.1x.
11 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red with both Oil and Copper off the most at -0.8%, followed by Silver -0.7% and then Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having had "nothing" upon which to trade but this ensuing week ought provide more impetus to so do, along with the notion that the weekly parabolic Long trend of 22 weeks by historical comparisons may soon run out of puff. Indeed the week is off to a busy trading start with volatility moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 116%.
08 Feb '19, 04:40 Pacific Time: Another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with a lean to the downside, Oil and the Spoo again both -0.5%; the Bond, Gold and Silver are all +0.2%; volatility is mostly light, the Econ Baro having completed its intake of metrics for the week. As noted yesterday Market Ranges continue to compress; at Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in realtime) perceptively starting to roll over, whilst those for Oil have (in realtime) taken a notable drop today having settled yesterday at +72% but are now at +51%. Gold appears en route to completing a 22nd week of parabolic Long trend which would rank alone as 4th from 2001-to-date.
07 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Yesterday's reports due for Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs are delayed in the wake of the gov't shutdown. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with both Oil and the Spoo -0.5% and the Bond and Copper both +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. The recent narrowing in components' volatility stands stark at the Market Ranges Page especially for the Spoo, Oil and EuroCurrencies. At our page for Moneyflow, that for the S&P 500 continues unsupportive for the Index across all 3 time periods, plus our "live" P/E remains at very lofty levels, 32.2x at present.
06 Feb '19, 04:36 Pacific Time: The only BEGOS Market in the black is Copper +0.2%, otherwise, the Bond is "unch" and the other components are in the red led by Silver -0.8% and then Oil -0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Values, Gold is (in realtime) right at its smooth valuation line, however the Euro is nearly 0.04 points low. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are crossing below their -80% axis; thus the PMs are struggling to stay firm as the EuroCurrencies have somewhat weakened. Due for the Econ Baro are Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus the delayed Trade Deficit for Nov.
05 Feb '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Yesterday the S&P 500 completed its "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719): 'twould be ideal from here to resume our still-expected 27% correction to 2154. That said, the Spoo +0.2% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Gold and Copper both +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are down, led by Oil -0.8%; volatility is light. Recorded are now half of the S&P companies due to report within Q4 Earnings Season and "only" 75% have bettered the prior year's like quarter, however that number was 85% in each of the prior three quarters.
04 Feb '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: Save for the "unch" Spoo, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are down to start the week, the PM's being the weakest of the bunch with Silver -1.0% and Gold -0.5% as is Oil; volatility is moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 92%. The Gold Update highlights this past Jan as "ordinary" for the yellow metal and notes that the weekly parabolic flip price to Short would arrive above The Box (1240-1280); Gold's current weekly parabolic Long trend at 21 weeks duration ties for 4th on the Long side since 2001. Nov's delayed Factory Orders report comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Feb '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the bias being to the downside led by Copper -0.8%, Oil -0.5%, and both Silver and the Spoo -0.4%; the EuroCurrencies and the Bond are mildly higher; volatility is mostly moderate, the laggard being the Spoo's EDTR tracing of just 28% with the Jan jobs data in the balance. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Jan's ISM Index plus more gov't shutdown catchup metrics for Nov's Construction Spending and Wholesale Inventories. The FinMedia is quite a-buzz about the S&P 500's best Jan in 32 years, yet the Index is only where 'twas back on 07 Dec, indeed having almost completed a "golden ratio" retracement to 2719 (basis the Sep high to the Dec low).
31 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolic Short signals on both Oil and the Spoo were essentially "one day wonder whipsaws", both flipping right back to Long and nixing our MRTs respectively of 51.12 and 2576.25. Indeed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are modestly higher and volatility is again light-to-moderate, the Euro being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 58%, the tightest being the Spoo with just a 27% tracing. Delayed by the gov't shutdown, Nov's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, along with Jan's Chicago PMI and Q4's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil's daily Parabolic remain Short despite price (53.85) rising for the 2nd straight session: but a trade not that much higher through 54.18 would nix the 51.12 MRT as the study would flip to Long; still, Oil's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are beginning to descend. Meanwhile, the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Short for an MRT of 2576.25. Save for the Swiss Franc and the Bond, the BEGOS Markets are higher, Oil indeed the firmest +1.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate ahead of the Fed. Due for Econ Baro are Jan's ADP jobs data and Dec's Pending Home Sales.
29 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil begins the session with a new MRT of 51.12 as the daily Parabolics confirm a flip to Short; there is some entry advantage with price presently 52.35, up from the opening trigger of 52.12. Indeed, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Market are "unch" to higher, the most being Copper +0.7% followed by both Silver and Copper +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, but the Bond with just a 28% tracing. The Econ Baro kicks into gear for a busy data week with Jan's Consumer Confidence.
28 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets range from "unch" to lower, led by Oil -1.4%; volatility is mostly light with Silver the widest EDTR tracer at 64% and the Swiss Franc the narrowest at 33%. Gold at 1299 has been struggling to maintain its final hour Friday pop above 1300 to 1303 on well-above average volume for that specific trading hour (21:00-22:00 GMT) as is noted in The Gold Update; the yellow metal's parabolic Long trend of 20 weeks ties for 5th best amongst Long trends this millennium. Gold's volume remains in the Feb cac but ought fully roll into Apr in the next day or so.
25 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's 50.85 MRT noted yesterday (generated Wed) was quickly nixed as the 8-hr. Moneyflow whipsaws across its signaling area (48-52 on a 0-100 scale); still, Oil -0.2% is only 1 of 2 BEGOS Markets which are lower, the other being the Bond -0.1%. Firmest is the Spoo +0.6% followed by the Euro, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate, the Euro again the rangiest of the bunch with a 70% EDTR tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all continue to work lower whilst those for Oil in real-time are just beginning to curl down from the +90% area.
24 Jan '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and Spoo, both +0.2%, are higher amongst the BEGOS Markets; down the most for the balance of the bunch is Silver -0.7%; volatility is mostly moderate, the rangiest component being the Euro with an EDTR tracing of 89% ahead of the ECB's policy statement followed by Draghi's press conference. Oil's 8-hr. Moneyflow produced an MRT yesterday (at 08:00 PT) for 50.85; however the entry point back then was 52.85; price at present is 52.16, thus the risk is dearer if nixed. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Leading Indicators, the consensus for which is negative.
23 Jan '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is again the BEGOS Markets leader, the weak link being the Bond -0.3%; volatility is light, exemplary that per Market Ranges all 8 components week-over-week have narrowing EDTRs. At Market Trends the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all find their "Baby Blues" in decline with room to spare for still lower price levels. And at Market Profiles only Oil and the Spoo are above their midpoints. As the inflow thickens for Q4 Earnings Season's results, 47 of the S&P 500 have reported with "only" 35 of those -- i.e. 74% -- bettering the prior year's like period: in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% had bettered; thus at least early on, Q4 is not keeping pace with 2018's prior quarters.
22 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues with Oil, -1.7% passing Copper -1.5% on the downside for the weakest BEGOS Market position; firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold is back atop The Box (1240-1280) at 1282, a Market Profile support level, however the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating lower, as is the case with Silver: the white metal shows no notable structural support until the 14.90s, thus threatening the recent run not quite up to 16. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed for MLK Day, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway with most of the BEGOS Markets working lower, led by Copper -0.8%, Silver -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has slipped back inside The Box (1240-1280) for the first time since 04 Jan: The Gold Update highlights price's narrow trading range through much of last week, prior to Fri's fall recording a net loss year-to-date. An avid reader points to the current Barron's piece on Newmont acquiring Goldcorp, and Barrick acquiring Randgold: both combinations ought foster materially improved management.
18 Jan '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Again we've Oil leading the BEGOS Markets, but this time to the upside, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +0.8%; the PMs are the weak links with Gold -0.6% and Silver -0.5%; the Gold/Silver ratio is 83.0x; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs at Market Trends are now breaking down more noticeably. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 85% whilst that for the Swiss Franc is just 20%. For Gold, the top of The Box (1240-1280) ought provide some structural support. For the Econ Baro, due are the UofM's Sentiment Survey for Jan and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for Dec.
17 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, again is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; Oil's cac volume is moving from Feb into Mar; 2nd weakest is the Spoo, -0.5% and firmest is the Bond, +0.2%; volatility is light. Gold's "Neverland" (i.e. The Whiny 1290s) is essentially keeping price therein entrapped: Gold's EDTR is 11 points, and yet its entire range thus far this week is but 10 points (from 1297 down to 1287; price at present is 1294); per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" as anticipated are now down (in realtime) to the +80% level; Silver's are beginning to accelerate lower, now down to +73%. Jan's Philly Fed Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
16 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, +0.8% and the Spoo, +0.1%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs have been falling for all 8 components, clearly the most being for the Spoo, followed by Oil. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in realtime) have dropped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels ahead: we don't really see much structural support until the 14.90s; 'twould be a shame to give back all that working up through most of the 15 handle (on verra); Gold's Baby Blues are also lower (at +82% in realtime). Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed: Q4 Earnings Season is beginning to kick in and today brings the UK vote on Brexit (11:00 Pacific Time) ahead of which the Dollar is getting a bid, in turn finding the Swiss Franc -0.6%, the weakest of the bunch, followed closely by the Euro, -0.5%; to the upside the firmest component is Oil, +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro with the rangiest EDTR tracing at 94%, whilst that for Oil is but 33%. Per Markets Trends, Gold's and Silver's "Baby Blues" are a bit lower today for the 3rd straight session, albeit they remain above their respective +80% axes; more in free fall are those for the Bond and EuroCurrencies. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Both Copper and Oil are -1.2% to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.9%; Gold is firmest, +0.6%, and of note thereto, NEM is buying GG for $10B; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update stresses price revisiting "Neverland", aka The Whiny 1290s: year-to-date the 1290s have traded everyday and 'tis a zone within which price has had a tendency historically to get stuck; per Market Profiles, 1291 has been the most dominantly traded price for the past 2 weeks; for Silver, which is "unch" rather than up with Gold, 15.700 shows as the dominate price.
11 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Almost in mirrored reverse of what we saw at this time yesterday, save for the Spoo, -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Oil, +1.0% and then the metals triumvirate; volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver tracing 71% of its EDTR, but the Spoo's range continuing its narrowing with just a 17% tracing. Despite the Bond being firmer today, per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are accelerating their drop below the +80% axis: however with price presently 145^15, the 144-145 range from some 2 weeks back appears as price clustering. Incoming data due for the Econ Baro is highlighted by Dec's CPI.
10 Jan '19, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond which is "unch", the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, the recent winning streaks for both the Spoo, -0.5%, and Oil, -0.3%, poised to come to an end; at Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil have recovered from their respective extreme "low" readings to which we'd pointed in prior weeks. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc being the most rangy with an 82% tracing of its EDTR; such measure per Market Ranges for the Spoo reached as high as 82 on 27 Dec, since having declined to 67 for today; indeed yesterday's actual range was just 28 points. There are a number of FedHeads speaking today including Chairman Powell at the Econ Club of Washington.
09 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: To the upside the BEGOS Markets are led by Oil, +2.2% in rising for the 7th straight day; to the downside the PMs are weakest, but only mildly so with Gold -0.3% and Silver -0.2%; week-to-date for Gold the top of The Box (1240-1280) has been supportive; session volatility is light. In a note last evening to a trading colleague we wrote re: the Spoo that "...Following better than a month of quite “thin” bid and offer sizes (roughly 1/3 of “normal”), the Spoo’s sizes today were ramped up toward 2/3 of “normal”. The EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) remains extremely high, however has begun starting to drop as the liquidity thickens. The EDTR for Tuesday was 74 points (between the low and high) but the actual range was just 34 points, the third-narrowest since Thanksgiving Day..."
08 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The S&P (2450) now sits some 400 points below its all-time high (2940) and 400 points above our targeted correction low (2154); the Spoo at present (2569) is +0.6% suggesting the rally continue for a 3rd day; firmest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil, +0.8%, attempting a 6th straight up day; weakest is Gold, -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for each of Gold, Silver and the Bond appear poised to come off of their respective ceilings, whilst those for Copper look due to rise from the floor: however, once the selling resumes in the overall S&P correction, the safe havens ought resume getting the bid. Nov's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro late in the session.
07 Jan '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo had opened the week up as much as 0.9% "on China trade hopes"; 'tis presently -0.1%; leading to the upside is Oil, +1.8%; the PMs, EuroCurrencies and Bond all are higher by 0.4%-0.5%; Copper like the Spoo is marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. As traders return from the year-end holiday we'll see if thin size conditions persist such that volatility remains rampant: recall such was already the case well prior to the holidays; the EDTR for the Spoo is 77 points (of which 28 or 37% have been traced); notwithstanding Friday's rally, per Market Values the Spoo still shows as 96 points "low", but per MoneyFlow the suggestion is for the S&P to ultimately resolve lower. Dec's ISM(Svc) starts a light load of metrics for the Econ Baro's week; Q4 Earnings Season starts as well.
04 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil +2.9%, Copper +1.6% and the Spoo +1.2% are the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the latter's rise at present would recover 1/2 of yesterday's 62-point loss (-2.5%) in the S&P; the PMs are the weak links as is the Bond which is off the most at -0.4%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, recent trending has these specific components well-away from their smooth valuation lines: in real-time the Bond is 9 points "high", Gold is 80 points "high" and the Spoo is 154 points "low"; but the S&P itself by all three Moneyflow durations suggests still lower levels are ahead. Dec's jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
03 Jan '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The overnight change in the Spoo (presently -14.50 from the the 14:00 Pacific Time GLOBEX close) is post the "fallout" from the negative AAPL outlook from which the Spoo had already dropped 20 points; thus at present, the S&P would decline some 35 points at the open; otherwise, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper, +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Of note, the Yen (not a formal BEGOS component) has traced 206% of its EDTR given its having had what is being termed a "flash crash" gap from the 14:00 close of .0092340 to the 15:00 open of .0094040 (or inversely -1.8% from 108.3 to 106.3). Due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP Employment data, the ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales.
02 Jan '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: The new year begins with a reversal of that which we saw on Monday, most of the BEGOS Markets now in the red with Oil off the most, -1.8%, followed by the Spoo, -1.5%; we continue view the S&P as in an overall 27% correction from 2940 ultimately to 2154: 75% of that course has been already traced, the S&P having reached down to 2347 a week ago. The Bond and Gold are to the upside in typical safe haven bid fashion. Rangiest of the bunch is Copper with a 113% tracing of its EDTR and overall volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per its Market Profile, Oil has slipped below its dominant supporter of 45.50 and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are extending their run lower.
31 Dec '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: The year's final trading session is to the upside for most of the BEGOS Markets, led by Oil, +3.0% and the Spoo, +0.9%; only the Bond is lower, -0.1%. The Gold Update maintains the same forecast high(s) for next year: conservatively 1434 and aggressively 1526. Gold is trading above The Box (1240-1280) at 1285: the yellow metal has finished higher on the last trading day of the year 13 of 17 times millennium-to-date. All 8 BEGOS components look to complete the year in the red, the non-component Dollar being up some 4% for 2019. Be safe and have a Happy New Year!
28 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: With the Spoo +0.8% and firmest of the BEGOS Markets, one can't help but wonder should the S&P net a 3rd straight up day within the overall correction that 'twill then all go wrong come the year's last trading day on Monday: on verra; only Oil is lower, -0.4%, and volatility is moderate, save for the Swiss Franc which has traded 103% of its EDTR. The Spoo's EDTR is 82 points, perhaps (without reviewing it) the most volatile reading since The Black Swan cascade of 2008/2009. With no Econ Data scheduled for Monday, today brings the Econ Baro's last 2 metrics for the year: Dec's Chicago PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
27 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: One quarter of yesterday's robust gain (+5.4%) in the Spoo has at present eroded (-1.5%), as has -2.7% of Oil's +9.2% gain; session volatility is moderate, save for Silver's having traced 106% of its EDTR, the white metal being +0.4% after breaking up into the 15s yesterday for the 1st time since 15 Aug: the Gold/Silver ratio is 84.0x. The "live" P/E of the S&P returned yesterday to an extremely high 37.8x. In a note post-close to our Investors Roundtable: "...The S&P had a strong +5.5% push higher today on fairly light volume, (i.e. 'thin' trading conditions) such that bid and offer sizes were about 1/3 of normal, which makes it very easy for the market to move. The market traded right up into a 'resistance nest' here in the 2473-2476 zone such that 'tis an ideal place from which to resume lower once again, if not by New Year then soon after..." For the Econ Baro today comes Dec's Consumer Confidence.
26 Dec '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Copper is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, having traced 170% of its EDTR; price is at present +1.5%, 2nd only to Oil's being +1.6%; weakest is the Euro, -0.4%; volatility otherwise is moderate. Despite the recent selling in the Spoo, per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" are only just today (in realtime) crossing below their -80% axis, having not been that low 01 Nov, (price then 2723 vs. 2355 now); at Market Values, the Spoo shows as a very extreme 308 points below the smooth valuation line: however by the S&P's Moneyflow page, the Index ought still be far lower than it currently is, indeed by 458 points via the quarterly measure, well below our 2154 target with which we're sticking; but the "live" P/E (33.4x) is not coming off as much as we'd initially anticipated to the extent stocks would remain expensive upon reaching that target.
24 Dec '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: In this pre-holiday shortened session Oil, -1.2%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.7%. Despite the S&P's 51-point slide on Friday, per our prior note, the Index did rise at the open to as much as +37 points before tossing in the towel. The Gold Update contains a logarithmic visual of the current S&P correction targeting 2154 vs. major past corrections; the missive also restates our notion of Gold finishing the year inside of The Box (1240-1280): presently at 1266, Gold is the firmest of the components, +0.5%; session volatility is moderate. Merry Christmas!
21 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: With the Spoo -0.4%, the FinMedia is reporting that "U.S. stocks poised to drop..."; what they're missing is the Spoo's having risen some 0.8% post-S&P close, such that stocks ought rise were the S&P to open at present: c'est la vie. Still, save for the Bond, +0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, the weakest being Oil, -1.7%, followed by Silver, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR is 63 points, the most expansive since 21 Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation and Durable Orders, plus the final read for Q3 GDP.
20 Dec '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is the theme thus far as the EuroCurrencies and PMs have exceeded 100% of their EDTR tracings. Up the most is Silver, +1.1%, whilst down the most is Oil, -1.9%; the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have halted their ascent 'round the -40% level; that noted, Oil's low these last three sessions has been 45.91, 45.93 and to this point today 45.82, so some attempt for consolidation there. For the Spoo per Market Profiles, near-term trading support is 2506, above which price presently is 2510; still we look for the correction in due course to continue down into next year to 2154, (-27% from the 2940 high of 22 Sep). For the Econ Baro today comes Dec's Philly Fed Index and Nov's Leading Indicators.
19 Dec '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.4%, the Spoo, +1.2% and Copper, +1.0% are all looking firm ahead of the Fed whilst Gold and the Swiss Franc are marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. We saw Oil at one point yesterday down more than 6% (measured as always per the prior session's GLOBEX close); again per Market Values, price (in real-time) is some 9 points below the smooth valuation line; so swift was Oil's plunge that an MRT triggered at midnight yesterday per Oil's daily Parabolics swiftly was met from a 49.16 confirmation to a 48.16 Target equal to $1,000/cac as is presently listed on the Market Rhythms page. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 Current Account Deficit and Nov's Existing Home Sales; today's FedFunds hike to 2.50% is followed by a Powell press conference.
18 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: We've been wrong on our expectation for Oil: rather than run up into the mid-50s it instead has dropped down into the high 40s, presently at 48.66, -1.6% in an otherwise mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, led to the upside by the Euro, +0.4%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo's 29% EDTR tracing to robust given Copper's 119% EDTR tracing. Per Market Values, real-time readings find the Bond some 7 points "high", the Euro nearly 3 points "high", Gold 50 points "high", Oil 8 points "low" and the Spoo 106 points "low": those are whole points, not pips, so there is quite a bit of prices being far from their respective smooth valuation lines. Nov's Housing Starts/Building Permits are due for the Econ Baro.
17 Dec '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil continues its role as the BEGOS Markets leader 'round this time of the session, today being the firmest of the bunch, +1.2%; the ongoing climb of Oil's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends still maintains our notion for a price move up into the 55-57 area; as well, Oil's cac volume is moving from Jan into Feb. Copper is the weakest component, -0.6%; the Swiss Franc leads the EDTR tracings at 95%, volatility otherwise being light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites price having run out of puff, perhaps for the balance of the year toward finishing somewhere in The Box (1240-1280), but the S&P having run just -12% of our ultimately expected -27% correction. Within the week's expectation of the FedFunds rate rising to 2.50% on Wed come 16 metrics for the Econ Baro, starting today with Dec's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
14 Dec '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: For the 2nd straight session Oil is the BEGOS Market's downside leader, -1.2%: for all of its gyrations of late, price (52.24) remains above the recent low (49.41) of some 3 weeks ago, and moreover per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are again higher (up to -40% in real-time as the consistency of the 21-day linreg downtrend continues to be less so). Only the Bond is higher, +0.4%, and session volatility is mostly moderate. Cac volume for the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is moving from Dec into Mar. On deck for the Econ Baro are Nov's Retail Sales and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, plus Oct's Business Inventories.
13 Dec '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Oil the weakest component, -1.2%: still per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are higher yet; to the upside, Copper is firmest, +0.7%; again we've session volatility as light-to-moderate. At Market Values, "high" readings persist for both the Bond and Gold and a "low" reading for Oil. Per Market Rhythms, 'tis rare that a 30-min study gets noted, however for the present we've the Spoo's 30-min Parabolics qualifying for the list. The ECB/Draghi are expected to cease asset purchases; the Econ Baro's metric's today include Nov's Ex/Im pricing.
12 Dec '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.2%, is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by the Spoo, +1.0% and then less so by Silver, +0.5%; weakest of the bunch is the Swiss Franc, -0.3%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, albeit are still above their +80% level (+87%); still the yellow metal appears en route to making a 2nd consecutive "lower high" on its daily chart. Oil's Baby Blues by their real-time reading are accelerating their rise as the 21-day linreg downtrend loses its consistency. Of note today for the Econ Baro is Nov's CPI.
11 Dec '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are up, Oil being the leader, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +1.0%; then come Silver and the Spoo, both +0.9%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are still rising given price's continuing to consolidate in the low 50s: again we're seeking a pop to the 55-57 zone, supported in part by OPEC's lean to tightening next year. The Bond's Baby Blues are looking toppy and those for Gold are stretching up (in real-time) to +88%. 13 metrics due this week for the Econ Baro start today with Nov's PPI.
10 Dec '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The week starts mildly up for the Bond and EuroCurrencies, and more notably down with the metals, Oil and Spoo, led by Silver, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal (1251) having for the present secured itself in The Box (1240-1280), wherein price has traded during some 27% of the past 5 years. Oil is -0.5%, its "Baby Blues" nonetheless furthering their rise per Market Trends; as well, Oil's EDTR of 2.65 is its highest reading in a least a year, ('twas 1.19 at this time a year ago when price was 56 vs. 52 today). At Market Values, Oil appears as "low" by some 8 points and both the Bond and Gold as "high" respectively by 8 and 59 points.
07 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate amongst the BEGOS Markets with a bevy of incoming Econ Data in the balance, highlighted by the StateSide jobs numbers. All of the components are "unch" to higher, save for the Spoo, -0.7%; firmest is Copper, +0.5%; rangiest is the Bond with an EDTR tracing of 66%. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their climbout from the floor. At Market Profiles, the Spoo (presently 2678) shows dominant support at 2666, then less so at 2643, with resistors at 2695, 2702, and then more dominantly so at 2379; the Spoo's EDTR is 51 points and rising. Oil, presently 51.86, is between support at 51.30-51.10 and resistance at 53.00-53.20.
06 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil again is leading the pack, but this time to the downside, -2.5%, followed by Copper, -2.0%, and then the Spoo, -1.5%: the S&P (at present) would open 'round the mid-2600s leaving still quite a way down toward our correction call to 2154, regardless of when that ultimately comes to pass. Session volatility ranges from light for the Euro to robust for the 3 noted leading losers, of which the Spoo has the widest EDTR tracing at 136%. Oil's dropping is not enough to stem the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends continuing their rising, in real-time having surpassed above the -80% level to -78%: still, this is 2nd day of the OPEC meeting. The busy stream of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro includes Nov's ISM(Svc) Index, along with Oct's Factory Orders and Trade Deficit.
05 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets upside leader for the 3rd consecutive day at this time, presently +0.9%; 2nd firmest is the Spoo (+0.5%) which will close its session at 06:30 PT in observance of GHWB's passing; for reason of same, the Bond is closed for its entire session; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are running their normal course, the weakest of the bunch being Silver, -0.4%. Oil's "Baby Blues" are now up to the -83% level, ascending at a rate which would see them pass above the -80% level into the Thu session, suggestive of still higher prices (note the 55-57 comment from yesterday): that said, we're mindful of OPEC's 2-day meeting beginning tomorrow in Vienna; by Market Values, Oil still shows well "low" by some 8 points.
04 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo is lower, -0.3%, the other 7 BEGOS Markets working higher, led again by Oil, +1.6% and then Silver, +1.2%. Gold has scampered up into (per The Gold Update) "the the safety and serenity of The Box" which is the 1240-1280 zone. Session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Bond's MRT of 138^01 is nixed as the 12-hr. MACD has swung up to positive; we're nixing as well the Euro's MRT of 1.14910 (despite price rising) as its 12-hr. MACD has taken on a flat-lined neutral stance. As anticipated, per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have begun bending up, in real-time at the -87% level: Oil's "price bunching" in its recent decline ranged in the 55-57 area were one looking for a near-term upside target, (last 53.93).
03 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil is the big BEGOS Markets mover to start the week, +4.4%: The Gold Update notes watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends to eventually pass above their -80% axis: in real-time they are up to the -93% level, their highest is at least a month. 2nd-firmest are Silver and Copper, both +1.5%, followed by the Spoo, +1.2%; weakest is the Bond, -0.4%, its 12-hr. MACD continuing its negative stance thus keeping intact the MRT of 138^01; volatility is moderate, albeit Gold has traced 103% of its EDTR. Nov's ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending start a busy week of 18 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro.
30 Nov '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Silver's 12-hr. MACD returned to positive, in turn nixing our 14.090 MRT; the same study for the Bond remains negative for its 138^01 MRT; again per the same study we've an upside MRT for the Euro (from 1.14030) of 1.14910 ($1,100/cac). Still, the Bond is up this session, +0.2%, whilst the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, led by Oil, -1.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Values, we've extremes of Oil being 13 points "low" and the Bond 5 points "high". The Spoo at present is clinging to major Market Profile support at 2732. The Econ Baro closes out Nov with the Chicago PMI.
29 Nov '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The revised open MRTs due to cac rollovers are for the Bond 138^01 basis Mar and for Silver 14.090 also basis Mar; following Powell's remarks yesterday, the 12-hr. MACDs have become less supportive of these two MRTs, that study in both cases having become less negative, albeit Silver is the weakest BEGOS Market, -0.3% in this session; the Bond is +0.5%, and firmest is Oil, + 1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Bond's EDTR tracing of 148%; Gold's cac volume is moving from Dec into Feb. Data for the Econ Baro today includes Oct's Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Prices and Pending Home Sales.
28 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our 2 MRTs for the Bond and Silver remain intact per their negative 12-hr. MACD stances: both markets' cac volumes are still lingering in Dec but ought be rolled into Mar by tomorrow; per yesterday's note, Silver's Mar cac MRT should be about 0.14 points higher (than 13.940) and that for the Bond's Mar cac about 0^20 points lower (than 138^21) depending upon pricing once volume firmly is in each new cac. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, save for Copper, +0.7%: the red metal's cac volume is moving today from Dec to Mar. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Fed Chairman Powell's Econ Club of NY speech on deck as well as for the Econ Baro the second peek at Q3 GDP and Oct's New Home Sales.
27 Nov '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by Silver, +0.5%, and on the downside by Copper, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Coming off of a successful Long MRT for the Bond, we've now a Short one, the 12-hr. MACD confirming a negative crossover from 139^25, (presently 139^29) for an MRT at 138^21 basis Dec; the identical study has confirmed for Silver from 14.180 (presently 14.255) for an MRT of 13.940 basis Dec: note that cac volume on both contracts shall roll into Mar starting tomorrow for which we'll update the MRTs. Nov's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Friday's session saw the Bond achieve our MRT of 140^10; today, (save for the Bond being -0.1%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, led by Oil, +1.4% and then the Spoo, +1.2%; volatility is moderate. Still, at Market Trends, only the Bond and the Swiss Franc are in 21-day linreg uptrends: notably, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to flat-line across the floor, and per Market Values, price (in real-time) is nearly 15 points "low"; the Bond's reading shows as 5 points "high". Q3 Earnings Season has concluded with 85% (352) of the S&P 500's 414 reporting entities having improved their bottom lines from the like period a year ago, again not unexpected given the corporate tax rate cut; overall, of 2009 companies reporting, 69% showed improvement.
23 Nov '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues with Oil, -4.3%, trading down to its lowest level (51.73) since 24 October 2017; moreover, save for the Bond, +0.2%, all of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, the 2nd-weakest being Silver, -1.9%; session volatility combining the 2 days ranges from light for the Spoo (with just a 24% tracing of its EDTR) to robust for Silver's 112% tracing. The Bond's high thus far is 140^06, just 4 pips from the 140^10 MRT, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator becoming more positive. The Econ Baro's week is complete; Q3 Earnings Season concludes today; the BEGOS Markets all have early closures at either 10:15 or 10:45 Pacific Time.
22 Nov '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Thanksgiving-into-Friday session finds Oil the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, -0.7%, followed by the Spoo, -0.2%; to the upside, Gold and the Euro are the firmest, both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is some 12 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, whereas the Bond is better than 5 points "high": both readings are extreme, albeit the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator still supports a move to our 140^10 MRT, (price as noted coming yesterday within a pip at 140^09 and the high thus far this session being 140^01). Far more daunting are the 3 periods of measure on the S&P's Moneyflow page suggesting that the Index ought be as much as 500 points lower than the present 2649 level, which is very coincident with our full 27% correction expectation down to S&P 2154.
21 Nov '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Bond yesterday came within 1 pip (140^09) of our 140^10 MRT: the 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains well-positive in support of that target. Oil is recovering a bit, +2.1% and the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, following yesterday's high-low decline of 8.1% (historically there've been intra-day declines approaching double that amount). Firmer as well are Silver and the Spoo, both +0.8%. Volatility is moderate. Given the StateSide holiday, GLOBEX trading has a 5-hour halt tomorrow (from 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time) plus early closes Friday (10:15-10:45 Pacific Time). The Econ Baro looks for a bevy of data today, including Oct's Durable Orders, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales. Q3 Earnings Season wraps up this Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to All!
20 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo and Oil are the BEGOS Markets weak links, respectively -0.8% and -0.4%; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way, albeit Silver just hit a session high as we type, +0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is still positive in support of the 140^10 MRT. Per our 16 Nov. note, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" via Market Trends have since been on the upside move. As noted in The Gold Update, price's movement continues as comparably docile given other components alacrity: the yellow metal (currently 1226) seems entrapped betwixt the base of The Box (1240-1280) and the rising weekly parabolic Long trend flip price of 1196. Oct's Housing Starts/Building Permits come into the Econ Baro.
19 Nov '18, 04:08 Pacific Time: Weakest of the BEGOS Markets to start the week is Oil, -0.6%: still, at 56.64, price is off the recent low of 54.90 following the daily Moneyflow having reached all the way down to 0; however, at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have yet to get up off of the floor, albeit at Market Values, price (in real-time) is better than 11 points "low". To the upside the Swiss Franc leads, +0.4%. Session volatility is mostly light, the exceptions being the Franc and Bond having traded at least 80% of their EDTRs; the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive toward maintaining our MRT of 140^10. Nov's NAHB Housing Market Index comes due for the Baro; Q3 Earnings Season concludes this week.
16 Nov '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: Following Oil's daily Moneyflow having hit rock-bottom 0 as noted, price is now gaining for the 3rd straight session, +1.3% and the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo, -0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond is rising for the 6th day in-a-row, our MRT of 140^10 still in place given the positive 12-hr. Price Oscillator. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are just beginning to curl up, albeit they are still below the -80% level. The Econ Baro rounds out its week with Oct's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
15 Nov '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: Again we look to Oil as its daily Moneyflow (scale 100-0) is down to 0, a very rare event and a level from which an in depth study ought show price rebounds, as 'tis a bit this session, +0.4%; cac volume is moving from Dec into Jan, (with some 20¢ of premium). The firmest BEGOS Market is Copper, +1.5%; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way. Volatility is mostly moderate, although the Euro given the UK Brexit minister's resigning has traced 101% of its EDTR. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is rising in support of our 140^10 MRT. Incoming data for the Econ Baro includes Nov's NY State Empire Index and Philly Fed Index, Oct's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and Sep's Business Inventories.
14 Nov '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil from yesterday into today is looking to survive structural support 'round 55; 'tis at present 55.75, +0.9%, the BEGOS Markets best gainer, followed by Copper, +0.4%; weakest of the bunch are the Swiss Franc and Silver, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed the crossing to Long (yesterday at 12:00 Pacific Time) from 138^19 (now 138^24) which per the Market Rhythms list gives us an MRT of $1,700/cac higher (+1^23) at 140^10. Brexit is on today's UK Cabinet agenda. And following a quiet start to the week, the Econ Baro receives a dozen metrics into week's end, today featuring Oct's CPI.
13 Nov '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oh wow Oil: at one point yesterday 'twas +2.4% from Friday's settle, only to then plunge -4.2% intra-day; for this session 'tis presently 58.73, -0.2%, as is Gold, both the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; firmest is Copper, +1.6%: the red metal has traced 143% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise moderate. Several components are triggering signals for MRTs, none of which we favour (Spoo daily Moneyflow Long, Copper daily Parabolics Short, Gold daily Price Oscillator Short); one which we are eying is the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator crossing to Long, but not as yet confirmed.
12 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets' big mover to start the week, its opening trade at 60.70 producing an up gap of 83¢, to then move higher still to 61.28; at present price is 60.63, +1.3%. Weakest is the Euro, -0.6% which is sporting an EDTR tracing of 118%. Session volatility looks to be moderate-to-robust. StateSide, the physical Bond floor is closed for Veterans Day how GLOBEX is trading its normal 23-hour daily cycle. Even with Oil's bounce, by our Market Values page price is some 10 points "low", whilst at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" continue their floor crawl; thus should a furthering Oil rally ensue given these oversold measures, technically we see room for a move higher into structural resistance in the upper 65s; Oil's recent downtrend low from Friday is 59.26.
09 Nov '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, and Copper, -1.2%, are leading most of the BEGOS Markets lower: only the Bond, +0.4%, is in the black: volatility is moderate. The FinMedia are pointing to Oil's current skid (-12% from a month ago) as its "worst decline ever", which without our specifically assessing the data is likely an exaggeration; currently 59.81, we see structural support in the 55s from Jan a year ago. The PMs continue to see their "Baby Blues" as displayed at Market Trends working lower such as to pass (in real-time) below their 0% axes, suggestive of still lower levels. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey, Oct's PPI and Sep's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Nov '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: At this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the black; now just 2 are, led by Oil, +0.4% and the Bond, +0.2%; weakest is Copper, -0.9%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Spoo's low-high range yesterday was 73 points (2.7%) as compared to post-election day two years ago which was 138 points (6.8%), the market this year not being surprised as noted. Recall in late Oct the Spoo by our Market Values being some 200 points "low": that has now been recaptured in full; but by the Moneyflow page (not to mention the "live" P/E of 46.3x), the S&P 500 remains treacherously overvalued (understatement). Also at Market Values, Oil appears as nearly 10 points "low" and Gold nearly 50 points "high": the present edition of The Gold Update offers a sub-1200 move scenario post-election, and at Market Trends, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall.
07 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly robust but far less so than what we witnessed through the night of the election two years ago as this time 'round, the high-level view shows the results coming in as projected/expected. Still, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all have traced well-beyond 100% of their EDTRs and all 8 components are higher at the expense of the Dollar; leading the pack is Oil, +1.9%, followed by Gold and Silver both +1.0%, and then the Spoo, +0.9%. Late in the session Sep's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro and the FOMC's 2-day meeting begins.
06 Nov '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Of top import is the volatility for the 07 Nov session from its 15:00 PT opening this afternoon concurrent with the closing of some StateSide election polls: recall in 2016 Gold tracing 5 times its EDTR and the Spoo 7 times same; this time 'round toward that pace, an overnight "lock limit" (5% up or down) would be enforced. On verra. For the present session, similar to yesterday volatility mostly is light with nothing due for the Econ Baro and the elections in the balance. Both Gold and Silver lead to the upside at +0.3%, whilst weakest is the Spoo, -0.3%. Be mindful of tonight's thin trading conditions and swift market speed.
05 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: A measure of the Spoo this session has it within a narrower range than we've seen to this point in at least the prior 4 sessions; TradeTalk with China aside, the markets may be going into the "calm before the storm" of the Tue/Wed election session upon which we elaborate in The Gold Update; especially take note of "The S&P 500 --Moneyflow" under our Contact Links (at left). Save for Copper which is -1.4% and has traced 88% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets are otherwise narrowly mixed and volatility is light. The Spoo's daily MACD confirmed a Long signal effective this session's open, as did Copper's daily Parabolics as well to Long: however with the elections looming, the fundamental risk here in shooting for their MRTs may well be worth avoiding. Oct's ISM(Svc) is due for the Econ Baro.
02 Nov '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Time was a few years back that Apple seemed to be the entire S&P as we'd depicted in a edition of The Gold Update; today with AAPL -7% pre-open, the Spoo nonetheless is +0.9%, 2nd only to Copper's being +2.0%, as like yesterday we've all the BEGOS Markets higher except for the Bond (-0.3%). Still, ahead of what ought start as a fourth day of gains for the S&P, per the Moneyflow page, the Index "ought be" 200-300 points lower across the three time-frame measures. And for a 2nd straight day the PMs are rising: StateSide pre-election (06 Nov) jitters? Oct's payroll data comes into the Econ Baro as does Sep's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is lower, -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets all presently posting gains with Sister Silver leading the way, +1.2%, followed by Gold, +0.7%; the Spoo, which we calculate as having been negatively correlated with Gold over the past 28 trading days, also is up, +0.6%. Volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 29% EDTR tracing, to robust for the PMs and EuroCurrencies, their EDTR tracing exceeding 100%: there is positive Brexit buzz on UK banks being able to potentially operate in the EU. 'Tis a big day of incoming data for the Econ Baro, including Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Oct's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, and Sep's Construction Spending.
31 Oct '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: As noted, Copper's 6-hr. Parabolics did see price reach down to 2.6755, and then some; this session, the red metal is otherwise quiet. The Spoo leads to the upside, +0.6%, but save for Oil (+0.1%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver, -0.9%. To this point of the session, the Spoo's ranginess has narrowed from that of recent days, so trading may appear a bit tighter as the day unfolds, suggesting the present EDTR of 63 points shan't nearly be traced. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 43.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 85.1x. ADP's Oct jobs data comes into the Econ Baro as does Q3's Employment Cost Index.
30 Oct '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: The S&P swung 103 points yesterday from high-to-low, the EDTR now up to 62 points; only the Spoo is positive, +0.5% in this session for which overall volatility is moderate. Weakest of the bunch is Gold, -0.7%: its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have begun rolling over, crossing below their +80% axis; this last occurred on 01 Feb, from which price sunk 48 points, a repeat of which would obviously put price back down into the 1100s. Copper yesterday reached its MRT of 2.7045 (see 26 Oct); further, the red metal's 6-hr. Parabolics are suggestive of price reaching lower to 2.6755. Oct's Consumer Confidence comes into the Econ Baro.
29 Oct '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: The Spoo starts the week as the BEGOS Markets upside leader, +1.1%, followed at a distance by Copper, +0.5%; the balance of the bunch all are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.5% followed by Gold, -0.3%; per The Gold Update, Gold is getting more FinMedia notice, but without any material progress for price. Session volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, there are 3 notable extreme readings: in real-time, Gold shows as 43 points "high", Oil as 4 points "low" and the Spoo as 175 points "low"; still, the Moneyflow page suggests more S&P fallout lies ahead. A busy week for the Econ Baro kicks off with the Fed's favoured Core PCE reading for September, along with Personal Income/Spending.
26 Oct '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Tech wreck earnings are pulling the Spoo back down by -0.9% with Copper the weakest BEGOS Markets performer, -1.4%; we've an MRT nearly already reached on the red metal as measured from this session's opening level of 2.7525 (now 2.7190) for 2.7045 toward meeting the $1,200/cac target as currently listed on the Market Rhythms page. The Bond, +0.4%, is the firmest of the components, followed by the PMs; session volatility is moderate; the Spoo's EDTR is 55 points. The highlight of the session is Q3 GDP, for which some slowing from Q2's +4.2% pace is expected, certainly so per the declining Econ Baro.
25 Oct '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil again is the upside leader, similarly up 1.0% was 'twas 'round this point yesterday; both the Bond and Swiss Franc are the weak links at -0.2%; volatility is moderate; Gold is "unch'", but playing catch-up is Silver, +0.5%, their ratio at 83.7x. Despite the Spoo's recent sliding, ('tis +0.4% in this session), the "live" P/E remains a dauntingly high 45.1x, and from the Moneyflow page, all three duration measures suggest still lower levels ahead; however per Market Values, the Spoo appears 200 points "low" and "low" as well per Market Magnets by some 70 points. Sep's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales are due for the Econ Baro.
24 Oct '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's 0.5% drop in the S&P, the Spoo at present is -0.6%, as is the Euro; the upside leader is Oil, +1.0%, whilst Gold is "unch" in continuing to cling to the 1230 area; session volatility ranges from light for the PMs to robust for the Euro, the latter's EDTR tracing at 108%. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" real-time reading shows them with an up-kink for the first time in some 2 weeks, without the dots having crossed sub-0%: again by historical Gold/Silver ratio measuring, Silver remains well "low" (and Gold not too "high" given its absurd under-valuation to currency debasement). Today (not yesterday as we'd erroneously stated) brings Sep's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Oct '18, 03:59 Central Euro Time: Very early on the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way with one exception: the Spoo is -0.5%, followed by Oil, -0.3%; volatility is expectedly light to this point, albeit the Spoo has already traced 41% of its EDTR, which now is up to 46 points per session; per Market Values, the Spoo is some 140 points "low", but both the monthly and quarterly Moneyflow measures on the S&P are suggestive of still lower levels; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are just now reaching down to their -80% level.
22 Oct '18, 09:20 Central Euro Time: On the heels of China's robust start to the week, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led (not surprisingly) by Copper, +1.2%, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 72%; only the Bond and Gold are flat to mildly lower; volatility is trending toward moderate, the Spoo's EDTR tracing already up to 62%. The Gold Update points to the safe haven/technical bid supporting the yellow metal, which month-over-month is the only net positive performer (+2%) of the 5 primary BEGOS components. 'Tis a light load of incoming data for the Econ Baro this week, the exception being Friday's first peek at Q3 GDP which is"expected" to have slowed by nearly 1%.
19 Oct '18, 09:40 Central Euro Time: The metals are bracketing the BEGOS Markets' moves early on with Copper up the most at +0.5% and Gold down the most at -0.2%; light volatility ought push to at least moderate by mid-session. From Market Trends, the respective "Baby Blues" for Oil, Copper, Silver and the Spoo are all falling; those for Gold continue to rise, albeit the 1230s for the yellow metal are being resistive; moreover, there appears structural resistance up to the 1245 level. By Market Magnets, Gold shows as 15 points "high" and Oil as better than 3 points "low". Sep's Existing Home Sales conclude the week for the Econ Baro
18 Oct '18, 11:47 Central Euro Time: Oil's cac volume is moving from Nov into Dec, for which there is very little premium; however, -1.4%, Oil as well as Copper are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower save for mild gains in the EuroCurrencies and Gold. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are only just now crossing their 0% access, suggestive of further room to fall: currently trading in the 69s, the overall swath from 70-to-67 appears as structural support, whilst at Market Magnets price is nearly 3 full points "low". The Econ Baro is set to receive Oct's Philly Fed Index and Sep's lagging read on Leading Indicators, for which the Baro implies may miss the +0.5% monthly grow consensus expectation.
17 Oct '18, 09:59 Central Euro Time: Copper, -0.6%, thus far is the weakest BEGOS Market in an otherwise mixed session; volatility is light but ought grow toward moderate; at Market Ranges, Gold, Oil and the Spoo have all notably increased their EDTRs of late. Despite yesterday's run-up in the S&P, it remains the case that the Spoo measures as 100 points "low" per Market Values, but the S&P remains "high" by all three time frames on its Moneyflow page, and per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are working lower still. Through yesterday's S&P rise, Gold's being buoyant is a sign of resilience; also as noted, an up kink in the "Baby Blues" for the Swiss Franc suggests higher levels near-term. Sep's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro today, plus due are the 26 Sep FOMC Minutes.
16 Oct '18, 10:35 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by the Spoo, +0.5%, and on the downside by Oil, -0.8%; the latter's "Baby Blues" (per Market trends) peaked 7 sessions ago with price in the 74 handle: 'tis now in the 71s. Overall session volatility is light-to-moderate. In real-time, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are rising for the 1st time in better than 3 weeks: should this be a change in trend, with price currently 1.0178, there appears structural room to run up toward to 1.3070 level. Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization and Oct's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Oct '18, 08:06 Central Euro Time: The Spoo, -0.6%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets in kicking off the week, The Gold Update suggestive of Gold getting a grip with the outlook being for the S&P to further dip; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fall, now in real-time down to -50%, a level not seen since 09 July; the Spoo's somewhat swift drop has price, per Market Values, some 150 points "low": however by the Moneyflow page, the suggestion is for further fallout. Firmest of the bunch is Oil, +0.5%, followed by Gold, +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oct's NY Empire State Index, Sep's Retail Sales and Aug's Business Inventories all start a busy week for the Econ Baro.
12 Oct '18, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The S&P in continuing its correction yesterday to as low as 2711 thus far marks a 7.8% pullback; as noted, 10% = 2646 and the critical hold area essentially is the 2500s. Friday's session to this point is finding some firmness, with both the Spoo and Oil +1.0%, led further by Copper, +1.4%; Gold is the weak component, -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate with the Spoo leading the EDTR tracings at 99%; mind the Market Ranges page as obviously some EDTRs are working higher, (the Spoo for example having already hit its "high if an up day" guesstimate per the BEGOS page for the S&P 500). Sep's Ex/Im pricing and Oct's UofM Sentiment Survey come due for the Econ Baro.
11 Oct '18, 09:01 Central Euro Time: The Spoo (2764) is working lower following yesterday's 3.3% drop in the S&P itself; there is structural support throughout the 2500s, however a break below S&P 2532 would be an opportunity for selling to accelerate; from the all-time high of 2940 (22 Sep) the 5% correction was passed by yesterday at 2793, the 10% correction would arrive at 2646, and "our" full (once 25% now 27%) correction remains targeted for S&P 2154. The balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets have not been equally responsive to the Spoo's move, although overall volatility is moderate and -- specific to the Spoo -- it has already traded 110% of this session's EDTR. The Econ Baro awaits Sep's CPI.
10 Oct '18, 08:48 Central Euro Time: Similar to this point yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed; no one component is (as present) changed by more than 0.2% either way and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Silver and Oil are curling lower from high levels; at Market Values, Oil appears a full 5 points "high" and the Bond a full 5 points "low"; at Market Ranges, the EDTRs for both the Bond and the Spoo are increasing and are higher than they were from a week ago; coming into the Econ Baro today are Sep's PPI and Aug's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Oct '18, 08:19 Central Euro Time: Mildly mixed are the BEGOS Markets early in the Tues session with Oil up the most at +0.5% and each of the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all -0.1%; volatility to this point is light but ought move on to at least moderate as the session unfolds. With much FinMedia ado about Gold having likely put in its low for the year (1167 on 16 Aug), as is the market's contrarian wont, price traded yesterday to as low as 1186; moreover per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" reading in real-time have lurched lower, suggestive of testing that low, albeit the Market Profile is indicative of support in the 1190-1188 zone, (current = 1194).
08 Oct '18, 08:02 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper's starting the week +0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets presently are all in the red, the most so being Silver, -1.2%, followed by Oil, -0.7%. The Gold Update notes how Silver month-over-month had climbed a net 3.5%, (over which stint Gold netted no change); still, the Gold/Silver ratio remains above the 80x level (82.8x "live" reading). As for Oil, by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are just starting to roll over from above their +80% zone: with price currently 73.82, initial Market Profile support shows at 73.40, then dominantly so at 72.30. Meanwhile the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their move lower.
05 Oct '18, 07:40 Central Euro Time: Only Oil and the Spoo are thus far higher, the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the red, but just mildly so, the weakest component being Copper, -0.3%; volatility is light to this point, but we expect it will pick up, especially given yesterday's drop in the Spoo, its net 16-point pull-back being the most since 30 August; the down day was also enough to bring price just about in line with the Market Values smooth valuation line; but for the Bond, price is now more than 6 points below its valuation measure. Sep's Payrolls data and Aug's Trade Deficit come due for the Econ Baro.
04 Oct '18, 06:34 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets early on are mixed with volatility running at a light-to-moderate pace. To the upside, the leader is Copper, +0.3%, whilst the weak link is the Bond, -0.4%, despite our noting yesterday its low Market Values stance and rising "Baby Blues", the latter in real-time continuing to so do; still, price is down to its lowest level since September 2014; the Bond is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 70%. The Dollar is poised to gain for the 7th consecutive session. Due for the Econ Baro today is Aug's Factory Orders.
03 Oct '18, 08:37 Central Euro Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, both of which are off but -0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are up, led by Copper, +0.3%, and then the Euro, Silver and Oil, all +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are more notably curling up from the floor, not so much much as price is rising, but rather consolidating: with price presently 140 ^04, the Bond's Market Profile shows a block of resistance spanning up to 140^16; yet at Market Values, price shows as nearly 5 full points below the smooth valuation line. Sep's ADP Employment Change and ISM(Svc) highlight the Econ Baro's incoming metrics.
02 Oct '18, 08:37 Central Euro Time: 'Tis worth nothing the divergence between the buoyant -- albeit somewhat struggling -- S&P, and the falling Econ Baro, for which Sep's Vehicle Sales are to arrive during today's session. There's firmness in the PMs, led by Silver, +0.6%, whilst the Euro is off the most at -0.4% and is also the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with an 55% EDTR tracing; similar to yesterday, volatility which to this point is light ought become moderate as the day unfolds. At Market Values, Oil is reading nearly 7 points "high", as extreme a reading as recorded in better than a year; presently trading at 75.85, Oil's Market Profile suggests support at 74.70, then at 73.40; 72.30 is the most heavily-traded handle these past two weeks.
01 Oct '18, 06:56 Central Euro Time: Early on, the Spoo is the new week's upside leader at +0.5% as traders embrace a new "USMC" version of NAFTA; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver and Copper, both -0.4%; session volatility is light, yet we 'spect 'twill skew toward moderate as the session unfolds. The Gold Update -- in its usual emphasis of the yellow metal being vastly undervalued but nonetheless precariously poised toward a weekly parabolic trend flip back to Short -- cites high-level analysts warning of the stock market's "kool-aid" levels. Sep's ISM(Mfg) and Aug's Construction Spending kick off the Econ Baro's week.
28 Sep '18, 13:02 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Silver, +0.5%, as the upside leader, but the Euro on the opposite end, down by same; the Euro is also the rangiest of the bunch with an 82% EDTR tracing. 2nd-weakest is the Spoo, -0.3%; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Bond's being +0.2% is helping the "Baby Blues" to curl a bit higher; however, those for the Swiss Franc are beginning to accelerate lower; thus by "conventional wisdom", various markets' relationships are seemingly out-of-sync. Due for the Econ Baro today are Aug's Core PCE along with Personal Income and Spending.
27 Sep '18, 14:28 Central Euro Time: With the no-surprise FedFunds hike and outlook behind us, the BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper, -1.0%; leading to the upside is Oil, +0.4%, and rangiest is the Swiss Franc with an EDTR tracing of 117%; otherwise, session volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends the Bond's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl up from the floor, albeit they're still below the -80% level. Per Market Profiles, the Spoo penetrated the 2912 supporter earlier in the session, only to now sit just above it at 2914. Imminently due for the Econ Baro are Aug's Durable Goods and the final read in Q3 GDP, followed later by Aug's Pending Home Sales.
26 Sep '18, 12:10 Central Euro Time: Ahead of the Fed's 0.25% rate hike at 11:00 Pacific/14:00 Eastern/20:00 CET we've the BEGOS Markets not surprisingly little changed in either direction and volatility is light. Post-Fed market trading reactions in recent years have been far more muted than in those of decades past, and since the Fed shall give the rate hike expected, we expect nothing different this time 'round; 'course, there is a follow-up press conference to nudge things about a bit. Prior to the announcement, the Econ Baro looks for an increase in Aug's New Home Sales.
25 Sep '18, 14:09 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag, led on the upside by Silver, +0.4%, and on the downside by the Bond, -0.2%; volatility is again moderate. At Market Values we show the Bond as being a full 5 points "too low", whilst despite the Spoo putting in a down day yesterday, 'tis showing in real-time as a full 50 points "too high" (and the "live" P/E is 51.6x); further per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to be unsupportive of that component's buoyancy of now nearly three weeks. The Econ Baro receives Sep's Consumer Confidence.
24 Sep '18, 12:20 Central Euro Time: Oil, +1.9%, is the BEGOS Markets leader in starting the new week; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; Oil is also the rangiest component with an 80% EDTR tracing, the volatility for the balance of the bunch also essentially moderate. The Spoo has not charted beneath its smooth valuation line since 05 July and is at present per Market Values 45 points "high" in real-time. The Gold Update characterizes price as being both downside protected and upside suppressed such as to sport a narrow weekly trading range (less than 20 points for last week) from which volatility tends to pick up: given the fresh new parabolic weekly Long trend is but two weeks in duration, we'd argue time is on Gold's side to break out higher, but at this instant 'tis literally "unch" as the week begins.
21 Sep '18, 15:06 Central Euro Time: Our MRT for the Spoo of 2860.75 has evaporated, its daily MACD confirming back to positive and the SPX itself moving up into uncharted territory and in turn sending our "live" P/E of the S&P to the ridiculous extreme of 52.1x. Copper leads the session to the upside, +1.1%, followed by Oil, +0.8%: these two BEGOS Markets components had been in negative correlation, but of late have been coming 'round to that which is positive. The Spoo is but +0.1% and the balance of the bunch are lower. No data is due for the Econ Baro, however next week brings what is expected to be another 0.25% FedFunds hike.
20 Sep '18, 12:07 Central Euro Time: Little changed are the BEGOS Markets with a good dose of incoming Econ Data waiting in the wings for the Econ Baro, including Sep's Philly Fed Index plus Aug's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, the latter for which the Baro suggests ought be muted at best. Rangiest of the components thus far is Silver with a 76% EDTR tracing; the balance of the bunch show light-to-moderate volatility. Ever so barely negative remains the daily MACD for the Spoo, that study thus still barely supportive of the 2860.75 MRT, and per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are a skosh lower.
19 Sep '18, 18:27 Central Euro Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Oil, +1.3%, and the volatility leader being the Swiss Franc with an EDTR tracing of 125%, followed closely by the Bond at 122%. Volatility is otherwise moderate, the precious metals also getting a bid today. The Spoo's daily MACD is now just barely negative with the MRT of 2860.75 facing the threat of becoming nixed upon the signal confirming its swing to positive prior to the MRT being reached. Aug's Housing Starts improved, but its Building Permits weakened.
18 Sep '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil's cac volume has rolled from Oct into Nov; both Oil and Copper are +1.7%, the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the red metal is vibrant with an EDTR tracing of 192%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate; the weak link is the Bond, -0.2%. The Spoo, albeit +0.2%, still has lacked the necessary upside to bring the daily MACD back to positive; thus the 2860.75 MRT remains in force; in real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall, now at +36% their lowest reading in better than 3 weeks. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's NAHB Housing Index.
17 Sep '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: With cac volume on the Spoo having rolled from Sep to Dec, we're revising up by 5 points of new premium our MRT per the negative daily MACD to 2860.75. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are lower still, and it and the Bond are the only 2 BEGOS Markets in the red to start the week. Firmest is Silver, +0.9%: The Gold Update depicts the extremely high Gold/Silver ratio at 85.1x; the white is picking up more ground today than is the yellow metal, +0.2%; as well, Silver is the rangiest of the BEGOS bunch with an EDTR tracing of 66%; overall session volatility is mostly moderate. Sep's NY State Empire Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
14 Sep '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Spoo's daily MACD is still negative, but becoming less so: a firm up session could lead to nixing our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep) upon confirming the study flipping to positive; cac volume is moving from Sep to Dec as it also is for the FX futs. Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs, Gold and Silver both being +0.4%; only the Bond is lower, -0.2%; Copper is rangiest with a 64% EDTR tracing and session volatility is mostly moderate. A cavalcade of 8 EconData metrics are set to hit the Econ Baro as the session unfolds, including Aug's Retail Sales.
13 Sep '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: Copper again is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, +0.6%; weakest is Oil, -1.2%, which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 84%. The other components are mildly changed either way, and volatility otherwise is mostly light as 'twas yesterday. The Spoo's daily MACD continues its negative journey toward keeping our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep) intact; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall and price remains above the Market Values smooth valuation line. The ECB delivers a policy statement followed by a Draghi press conference. Stateside, the CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Sep '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, which is +0.6% with a robust EDTR tracing of 113%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light; looming late in the session is the Fed's Tan Tome for Aug. Despite the Spoo having moved up yesterday, the daily MACD remains negative in maintaining our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep); at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are in real-time more notably beginning to break down without having achieved +80% on their upside run; the real-time Market Values reading shows the Spoo some 36 points above its smooth valuation line. Aug's PPI works into the Econ Baro.
11 Sep '18, 17:21 Pacific Time: Web pages have since been updated for trade date 11 Sep '18. Thank you for your patience. Our web pages are not being updated for this trade date due to intermittencies in the feed from the data provider.
11 Sep '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Another mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets, with Oil again leading to the upside, +0.4%, the weakest component this time being Silver, -0.4%; Gold again finds itself sub-1200; Copper, which presently is "unch" is nonetheless the rangiest of the bunch with an 87% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's daily MACD has furthered its negativity, our MRT remaining intact for 2855.75: given the cac volume rolling into Dec toward week's end, we'd add 4 point to that Target should it not first be reached (or nixed) before the volume roll. Jul's Wholesale Inventories come into the Econ Baro today.
10 Sep '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil, +0.5%, and the Spoo +0.4%, are the BEGOS Markets' upside leaders in starting the week. Down the most is the Swiss Franc, -0.5%, which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 101%; session volatility otherwise is moderate. The Spoo's being higher is not enough to put off the MRT of 2855.75 as the daily MACD has furthered its negativity; per Market Values, the Spoo's real-time reading shows as some 43 points above its smooth valuation line; presently 2886, the Spoo's Market Profile shows trading resistors at 2889 and then 2897. Jul Consumer Credit comes due late in the session.
07 Sep '18, 04:14 Pacific Time: That which we at present see may well be moot with Aug's Payrolls data, TariffTalk and FedSpeak in the session's balance. The PMs, which seem to regularly give back gains are again the BEGOS Markets firmest components, Silver +0.3% followed by Gold +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are "unch" to lower, Copper being the weakest at -0.2%. The Spoo's daily MACD confirmed its negative cross: as measured from this session's opening of 2877.75, we've an MRT of 22 points lower to 2855.75 ($1,100/cac); as well, our "live" p/e of the S&P 500 is 50.6x and per Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is some 36 points above its smooth valuation line.
06 Sep '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo's daily MACD provisionally has crossed to negative: we'll see if that confirms for an MRT at session's end. The metals are the BEGOS Markets leaders to the upside, led by Copper +1.5%, Gold +0.8% and Silver +0.6%; the red metal is also the rangiest component, tracing 111% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is again mostly moderate. At Market Profiles, the Bond is clinging to major 10-day trading support at 143^06, helped by the firmer metals and weaker Spoo. 'Tis a busy day of incoming EconData for the Econ Baro, including Aug's ADP and ISM(Svc) numbers, Jul's Factory Orders, and revisions to Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 Sep '18, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. Copper is the upside leader, +0.6%, mirrored to the downside by Oil, -0.6%; rangiest is the Euro with a 77% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's daily MACD is nearing a negative crossover: were that to confirm in the ensuing days, we'd get an MRT of 22 points lower ($1,100/cac); as well, the Spoo still has some 63 points (in real-time) to work off above its smooth valuation line at Market Values; the other 4 primary BEGOS components are fairly close to their valuation lines. The Econ Baro takes in the Jul Trade Deficit.
04 Sep '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues, now finding every BEGOS Market lower except Oil, which is +1.9% over Gulf Coast storm concerns. Copper is the weakest component, -2.2%, in the process nixing our MRT of 2.7790. 2nd-weakest is Silver, -2.1%; Gold has marginally slipped sub-1200. The Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Values are accelerating their decline, however price (thus far) has held at mid-143s structural support. The Spoo (-0.3%) by Market Values is some 73 points "high" in real-time above its smooth valuation line. Aug's ISM(Mfg) and Jul's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro.
03 Sep '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway, the firmest two BEGOS Markets being the Euro and the Spoo, both +0.2%, and Gold the rangiest of the bunch with a 66% tracing of its EDTR; the weak components are the Swiss Franc and Silver, both -0.1%. Our MRT for Copper of 2.7790 is still alive, but price has come off, presently 2.6670 having been as high as 2.7665 during this parabolic Long run: a move sub-2.6220 (today) would flip the signal to Short, that hurdle rising at a pace of about 1¢ per session. The week's fairly busy schedule of incoming EconData commences tomorrow.
31 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Today 'tis the Bond's turn to roll its cac volume from Sep into Dec, for which there is nearly a full point of discount in price; but the BEGOS Markets' price movement is led by the PMs, with Silver +0.8% and Gold +0.5%; the yellow metal is also the EDTR tracings leader at 79%; otherwise, session volatility is light-to-moderate. The daily Parabolics on Copper remain Long such that the 2.7790 MRT is still in play. Weakest of the components is Oil, -0.3%. The Spoo has unwound a bit of its extreme "high" reading at Market Values, albeit in real-time is reading 79 points "high" above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro closes out Aug with its reading of the Chicago PMI.
30 Aug '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: Save for Oil, +0.3%, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver, -0.7%; the white metal's cac volume is rolling from Sep into Dec. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the EDTR tracings led by Silver and Copper, both at 70%. Copper's daily Parabolics are still Long in support of the MRT of 2.7790. As anticipated, the Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Values are (in real-time) now sub-80%, albeit price is trying to maintain a grip here in the mid-144s, barring slipping to the mid-143s. Incoming data for the Econ Baro includes Jul's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE inflation reading.
29 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: 24 hours on finds Copper this time the BEGOS Markets' weakest component, -0.7%; cac volume for the red metal is rolling from Sep into Dec, for which the daily Parabolics remain Long, our 2.7790 thus still in play. Oil has whirled back up, today at +0.5% the firmest of the bunch. Session volatility is light at best. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are rolling over such that by the current real-time reading of +82% they'll be sub-80% by tomorrow: should price clustering in the mid-144s fail to hold, a test of the mid-143s would structurally seem likely. The Econ Baro gets its 2nd peek at Q2 GDP as well as Jul's Pending Home Sales.
28 Aug '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' firmest component, +0.8%, whilst the Bond and Oil are the weak links, but only mildly so, both -0.1%; leading the EDTR tracings is the Swiss Franc at 90%; volume otherwise is light-to-moderate. Our MRT for Copper of 2.7790 (basis Dec) is intact as the daily Parabolics continue their Long ascent. Silver's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have climbed up above the -80% level, suggestive of still higher prices: structurally, clearing 15.000 ought open the door to 15.250. At Market Values, the Spoo has returned to an extreme "high" reading with price 100 points above the smooth valuation line; the "live" p/e is now up to 51.2x. Aug's Consumer Confidence comes into the Econ Baro.
27 Aug '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate, the BEGOS Markets fairly mixed in starting the week: firmest is Copper, +0.4%, but tied with Oil ("unch") for the least rangy component, both tracing just 30% of their EDTRs; Silver is the weakest of the bunch, -0.3%; most rangy is the Euro with a 72% EDTR tracing. Copper's cac volume has yet to fully roll into the Dec cac, however we've a fresh MRT for the red metal: the daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Long which as measured from the session's open of 2.7230 basis Dec gives us a Target of 2.7790 ($1,400/cac). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having just completed its 3rd best up week year-to-date, the 10-day Market Profile giving us a supportive look. No incoming data today for the Econ Baro with 10 metrics due in the week's balance.
24 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is lower, just -0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being higher with both Copper and Oil +1.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo points to a higher open for the S&P, albeit again at the Moneyflow page, the Index appears some 200 points inflated as measured over both the last month and quarter; as well, our "live" p/e remains above 50x; and by its Market Value in real-time, the Spoo is 77 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; similarly near an extreme "high" reading is the Bond, some 2 1/2 points above its line. For the Econ Baro today we get Jul's Durable Orders; Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole conference.
23 Aug '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are "unch" to lower, the weakest components being the metals with both Silver and Copper -1.2%, with Gold -0.5% and back sub-1200. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P yesterday failed to make a run for a record high as was barely achieved on Tuesday; the Spoo presently is mildly lower. No fresh MRTs have appeared the radar this week, however there are 17 on the watch list at the Market Rhythms page. The Kansas City Fed opens its annual conference in Jackson Hole. Jul's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
22 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, no one component changed by more than 0.4% either way, except for Oil, +1.2% and Silver, +0.6%; volatility is moderate. The S&P made a marginal all-time high (2873.23) yesterday by less than 1 point before sliding lower over the session's final 3 hours; our "live" p/e for the Index is 50.0x, and by Market Values the Spoo in real-time reads 82 points "high"; as well, all three readings on the Moneyflow page (week, month, quarter) are unsupportive of the Index's present level. Jul's Existing Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro. The minutes from the FOMC's 31 Jul/01 Aug meeting come due, for which there was no follow-up press conference.
21 Aug '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, -0.3%, the BEGOS Markets are up, led by Copper, +1.0%. The Swiss Franc is the rangiest of the bunch, sporting an EDTR tracing of 96%, with price recapturing almost a month's worth of downtrend; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. Gold is clawing away to regain the 1200s, the resistor per the Market Profile being 1201; but above 1204 there is room to run back up to 1220; supporters are 1193 and 1184. At Market Values, the Spoo continues to be quite "high" (91 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line.
20 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed in starting the week, with Copper firmest at +0.5% and Oil weakest at -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold's reported "change" of being +10 points belies that 8 of those came Friday post-COMEX close, such that from Friday's GLOBEX settle price actually is just +2 at 1194; The Gold Update notes the Gold/Silver ratio again exceeds the 80x threshold; the missive also notes Gold as having been at 1245 better than a year ago when the Dollar Index was 'round the same level 'tis today. We've a slow week for incoming Econ Data, with nothing due for the Econ Baro until Wednesday, the FOMC's 31 Jul/01 Aug meeting minutes also due that day.
17 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo is lower, and just barely at that, the upside leader of the BEGOS Markets being Oil, +0.7%, and for which the cac volume is moving from Sep into Oct. Volatility is moderate across the board. Oil's 6-hr. MACD is nearing a positive cross, which if confirmed would signal an MRT of 1.10 points higher ($1,100/cac) from the opening price of the subsequent period. Gold has only mildly recovered from a Market Magnet deviation of -31 points, its most extreme reading in the last three months. The Econ Baro today takes in Aug's UofM Sentiment reading and Jul's Leading Indicators, the +0.5% expectation rather belied by the declining Baro itself.
16 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate-to-robust: mind the Market Ranges page for EDTRs to increase. Gold (+0.4%), in trading between the 1160s and 1180s this session, is sporting the widest EDTR tracing at 178%; Silver (+1.2%) is the firmest of the bunch. At Market Values, Oil is -5 points below its smooth valuation line, the deviation a "extreme" low from the norm. More data comes into the Econ Baro today from Aug's Philly Fed Index and Jul's Housing Starts/Permits; Q2 Earnings Season winds down into week's end.
15 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: 8 trading days following Copper's daily Parabolics having flipped to Short, the 2.6705 MRT was achieved in today's -2.6% fallout of the red metal, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 146%; 2nd rangiest is Silver (-1.6%) with a 136% tracing and price back down into the 14s making 2 1/2-year lows. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower save for the Bond, +0.4%. At Market Trends, only that for the Spoo is up: however the "Baby Blues" therein have resumed their fall, now in real-time down to the +48% level. 'Tis an unusually large amount of incoming EconData today with 9 metrics due for the EconBaro.
14 Aug '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate, which are mixed as some firmness returns to the Turkish Lira. Our upside leader is Oil, +0.7%, and the weak link is Copper, -0.6%; the latter's 2.6705 MRT remains in place as the daily Parabolics continue their skid; the Swiss Franc leads the EDTR tracings at 95%. As the Spoo recovers some ground today, its Market Value reading is nonetheless running in real-time 77 points "high" above the smooth valuation line; the other four primary BEGOS components are not showing any extreme value readings. Ex/Im prices for Jul come into today's Econ Baro.
13 Aug '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Gold Updates touts the yellow metal as coming in for a soft landing, however both Gold and Silver are -1.0% -- the session's downside leaders -- followed by Copper, -0,9%, and Oil, -0.6%: only the Bond and Swiss Franc are marginally up; volatility is moderate, save for more robust Gold having traded 129% of its EDTR. Turkish Lira jitters continue, albeit the Dollar is only marginally higher vs. its Friday leap. Copper's MRT of 2.6705 is intact given the daily Parabolics are still sliding. Today begins the final week of Q2 Earnings Season; the Econ Baro is quiet ahead of 16 incoming metrics by week's end.
10 Aug '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the Turkish Lira and its potential "contagion" making the FinMedia headlines: but Gold barely is budged, -0.1%. The Euro, Silver, Copper are the downside leaders, all -0.5%, whilst the Bond and Oil lead to the upside, both +0.3%. Given the currency stirrings, the Euro is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 154%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Copper's daily Parabolics continue their Short trajectory, the MRT in place at 2.6705. Following yesterday's benign PPI reading, today brings the CPI into the Econ Baro.
09 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper, +2.0%, is firmest of the BEGOS Markets, price topping the 2.8000 level; the red metal's daily Parabolics are still to the Shortside; however were 2.8460 to trade today, (or about 2.8405 tomorrow), the study would reverse to Long and the MRT at 2.6705 would be nixed. The rest of the components are mixed, and with the exception of Copper having traded 107% of its EDTR, volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro is the weakest of the bunch, -0.2%. At Market Trends, mind the ascending "Baby Blues" of the Bond, Gold and Silver, all for which price has yet to pick up. Econ Baro metrics for today include Jul's PPI and Jun's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper, -0.5% and Oil, -0.4%. Not officially a BEGOS component, the Yen would be the firmest of the bunch, up as much as +0.5% and exceeding its its "high if an up day" guesstimate of 0.90420, having since pulled back to the present 0.90290 level; as well, the Yen has traced 92% of its EDTR, whilst volatility for the BEGOS bunch is light-to-moderate. The daily Parabolics for Copper are still Short, the 2.6705 MRT in place. At Market Values, the Spoo is showing better than 100 points "high", as extreme a reading as has been since at least a year ago; the S&P 500 is just 14 points from its all-time high of 2872, however we still view as warranted a return to 2154 given our "live" p/e presently being 44.7x.
07 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The metals and Oil are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders with Copper +1.3%, Silver +1.2%, Oil +1.0% and Gold +0.6%; only the Bond is lower, and by one mere pip at that: however at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have again notched higher in real-time; those for both Gold and Silver are mildly gliding up from the floor. Still, Copper's daily Parabolics remain Short: thus the MRT at 2.6705. Silver leads the EDTR tracings at 78%, with session volatility otherwise light-to-moderate. As for incoming metrics, Jun's Consumer Credit is due late in the day.
06 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Up the most to start the week is Oil, +1.2%, whilst similarly down the most is Copper, -1.2%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are basically "unch" to lower; sporting the widest EDTR tracing is the Swiss Franc at 75%; volatility otherwise is mostly moderate. Copper's daily Parabolics have flipped to Short from a confirmed entry price of 2.7265 with an MRT of 2.6705 ($1,400/cac). At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" in real-time have begun to curl up from below their -80% axis, suggestive of higher levels. The Gold Update recounts the yellow metal's ability to rise even in the face of both so-called "Dollar strength" and increases in the FedFunds rate; it also points out the negative divergence between the rising S&P 500 and declining Econ Baro, which for this week only a small number of a metrics come due.
03 Aug '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets at present are in the black, however volatility is light-to-moderate with Jul's payroll data in the balance. Firmest of the bunch is Copper, +0.9%. Oil came within a whisker of reaching its MRT of 66.89 (66.92) before reversing back up yesterday, sufficiently so to nix that Target as the 6-hr. MACD crossed to positive. The Spoo's recovery yesterday nonetheless at Market Values has put price in real-time 83 points "high" above the smooth valuation line. Due as well for the Econ Baro today are Jul's ISM(Svc) Index and Jun's Trade Deficit.
02 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and continues to work lower, -1.2%, nearing the MRT of 66.89 (which is within range for today) as the 6-hr. MACD remains negative. The upside leader is Silver, +0.6%, albeit Gold is flat. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are lower still, in real-time now down to 62%: but at Market Values, price is 43 points above the smooth valuation line. The only other component in the black at present is the Bond, +0.3%. Jun's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
01 Aug '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Ahead of the likely "stand pat" Fed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, led by Copper ('tis said that global factory activity is slowing) -2.4%; the red metal leads the EDTR tracings at 115%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate, and their changes at present are all less than -1.0%. Oil confirmed a negative crossing of its 6-hr. MACD, which as measured from the 18:00 PT period's opening of 68.29 gives us an MRT of 66.89 ($1,400/cac). At the Market Trends page, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" show as curling down sub-80% and now in real-time are down to the 73% level. Prior to the FOMC's policy decision -- for which the individual votes may be interesting -- the Econ Baro receives ADP's jobs data from Jul, along with the ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending.
31 Jul '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: Our MRT for the Euro of 1.15790 was nixed yesterday as the 8-hr. MACD confirmed crossing to positive. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are rolling over, now in real-time having crossed below the +80% level: such event generally heralds lower price levels, however the Spoo has been sufficiently upside stingy as to not always succumb, albeit the last such occurrence (02 Feb) was swiftly followed by a sound selloff of better than 200 points. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with volatility ranging from light (for the Spoo, Swiss Franc and Oil) to robust (for the Bond), the latter tracing 111% of its EDTR as the BOJ maintains a dovish stance. Six metrics come into the Econ Baro today, including the Fed's favoured PCE inflation data.
30 Jul '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil opens the BEGOS Markets trading week with a gain of 1.3%, the balance of the bunch being either side of "unch", save for the weak link Copper, -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate. Cac volume for Gold is moving from Aug into Dec, the premium being +10 points which one ought mind with respect to price "change"; The Gold Update points to the remarkably tight directional tracking of Gold and Copper since at least as far back as 2008's Black Swan; its cites as well that Gold continues to languish some 50 points below its smooth valuation line per the Market Values page. Jun's Pending Home Sales begin a busy week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, with the FOMC's rate decision due Wed.
27 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper, +0.5%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way: in the balance comes our 1st peek at Q2 GDP, the "expectation" for which is a +4.1% annual pace after that of +2.0% in Q1; the Econ Baro swung higher during much of the Q2 reporting period, so on verra, albeit +4.1% seems an ambitious estimate. Session volatility, as has been the case through the week 'round this time, is light-to-moderate. Of note, the Spoo did hit the "would be" MRT of 2845 (see 19 Jul comment). We've a fresh MRT, this for the Euro based on its 8-hr. MACD crossing negatively: presently 1.16715, (as measured from confirmation at 1.16830) the Target is 1.15790 ($1,300/cac).
26 Jul '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: We've red across the board for the BEGOS Markets, save for the Bond; the metals are the downside leaders with Copper -1.5%, Silver -0.4%, and Gold -0.3%; the Spoo too is -0.3% given negativity over FB, until yesterday the 4th largest cap-weighted stock in the S&P 500. Session volatility is yet again light-to-moderate. Despite Copper's pullback, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue their climbout from the floor, albeit this 2.78-2.88 area is recent structural resistance, the next bit of which would be in the 2.93-2.99 zone; presently 2.8200, Copper shows Market Profile support at 2.8150, and then most dominantly at 2.7650. An ECB policy decision and Draghi are due this morning, plus the Econ Baro receives Jun's Durable Orders.
25 Jul '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs with Silver +0.7% and Gold +0.5%; only Oil, -0.5%, and the Spoo, -0.1%, are lower; again, volatility is light-to-moderate, as 'tis said the markets are awaiting the results of today's Trump/Juncker TradeTalk. At Market Ranges, the only component for which the EDTR is materially widening is Copper (7¢ per day), whilst notably narrowing is the Spoo's EDTR, (now at 22 points per day, the tightest reading since 23 Jan). At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have kinked above the -80% axis for the first time since 02 Jul, after some 3 weeks of crawling across the floor. The Econ Baro takes in Jun's New Home Sales.
24 Jul '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss Franc which is all but "unch", the balance of the BEGOS Markets are all higher, led by Copper, +1.0%, and Silver, +0.9%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold (1227) remains stubbornly low by better than 50 points per the Market Values page. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) eclipsed the +80% level: the "would be" MRT of 2845 (see 19 Jul comment) is intact give the positive disposition of the daily Moneyflow. 75 S&P 500 companies have reported their Q2 Earnings, with 91% of them bettering their bottom lines of a year ago: still, the median "live" p/e remains a historically high 24.0x.
23 Jul '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.4%, is the BEGOS Markets upside leader; the balance of the bunch are mixed, the weakest being Silver, -0.3% and Gold, -0.2%. The Gold Update officially nixes our forecast 1434 high for this year "...barring a swiftly substantive swing in sentiment such as to send price skyrocketing..." which would likely take more than just a rescission of rate rises and Dollar weakness given all the cited overhead resistance areas; at Market Values, Gold's price (1230) remains better than 50 points below its smooth valuation line, the 4 other primary components not nearly as out-of-sync. Jun's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Jul '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Fairly mild changes at present for the BEGOS Markets, most of which are higher, save for the Bond and Spoo, Silver sporting the most net change at +0.4%; volatility is essentially moderate. Gold has regained the 1220s after making fresh year's lows for three days in-a-row, trading down to 1211: we look to formally nix our forecast high for this year of 1434 in tomorrow's Gold Update. The Econ Baro has had its fill for the week, and 'tis interesting to note that month-over-month it has not produced further upside swing. Meanwhile, Q2 Earnings Season is picking up steam, most companies reporting higher levels than in the like period a year ago, but the reality is: the p/e of the S&P remains unrealistically high per our Valuations & Rankings page.
19 Jul '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: More misery for the BEGOS Markets metals with Copper -2.8%, Silver -1.9% and Gold -0.9%; the balance of the bunch as well are all in the red; volatility is moderate to robust. Gold, which has traded down into the 1214s, is now 78 points (in real-time) below its smooth valuation line as displayed at Market Values. The Spoo's daily Moneyflow crossed above the 52 level (scale 0-100), producing a "would be" MRT of 2845, however we're very wary of chasing anything Long with respect to that market. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include Jul's Philly Fed Index and Jun's Leading Indicators.
18 Jul '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.0%, Copper -0.7% and Gold -0.4%; the yellow metal, now 1224, has but 3 trading sessions (into week's end) to right itself back up into the The Box (1280-1240) to ward off nixing our 2018 forecast high for 1434; that noted, the Market Values reading in realtime for Gold shows price as 73 points below the smooth valuation line, far and away the largest downside deviation in at least a year, so one ought think a bounce is in the offing. Post-Powell, perhaps? Today he testifies to the Senate Banking Committee and the Tan Tome gets released. Jun Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
17 Jul '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate, but the BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of Powell's testifying to the House Financial Services Committee: Weakest is Copper, -0.2%, and firmest are the Swiss Franc and Oil, both +0.2%; the latter achieved its MRT of 69.18 (68.18 Sep cac). Gold continues its battle to stay in The Box (1280-1240), each drop sub-1240 being met with volume-supported buying; per the Market Values page, price is more than 50 points below its smooth valuation line, which from a year ago-to-date has been the extreme from which up moves have then evolved. Jun's IndProd/CapUtil and Jul's NAHB Housing Index hit the Econ Baro today.
16 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mixed, the upside leader being the Swiss Franc +0.4% and the downside leader Oil -1.1%, the latter's daily MACD becoming more negative and our 69.18 MRT (68.18 Sep cac) in place; Oil's "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page are working lower, whilst at Market Values price remains better than 2 points above the smooth valuation line. The Gold Update underscores the technical importance of price (presently 1244) to not drive -- indeed settle a week -- below the bottom of The Box (1280-1240). Session volatility is light-to-moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Retail Sales, Jul's NY State Empire Index, and May's Business Inventories.
13 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Similar to what we saw the night of 02 July, Gold briefly dipped below the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) to 1239 in the 02:00 PT hour before bouncing back up on firmer volume than in the prior hour: however, various hourly time frames suggest lower levels ahead which may be cause to pull our 1434 forecast high for this year. At present, the Bond is +0.1%, the Spoo is "unch" and the other 6 BEGOS Markets are down, led by Silver -1.0%, the Dollar rising. Volatility is moderate. Oil's daily MACD confirmed the negative cross from this session's opening (70.38 Aug cac) giving us a MRT of 69.18 (or on the Sep cac 68.18). Jun's Ex/Im pricing and Jul's UofM Sentiment come into the Econ Baro.
12 Jul '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: With Oil dropping 4.8% yesterday, the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: if confirmed, we'll set an MRT of 1.2 points ($1,200/cac) lower from the ensuing session's opening price; at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have kinked lower as anticipated, and at Market Values price has fallen from having been better than 5 points "high" to now 3 points above the smooth valuation line. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with the Bond and EuroCurrencies down, the balance of the bunch up. However: Gold (+0.1%) is teasing the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) in trading down to 1241. Volatility is mostly moderate. Incoming Econ Baro data includes June's CPI.
11 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Tariff increases have all (but the Bond) BEGOS Markets down; we saw Copper at one point -3.3% (now -2.4%) and the Spoo off some 30 points from its 13:15 PT trading halt (now -18 points from there, or just 7 points from the 14:00 PT settle). Save for Copper blowing out its EDTR with a 192% tracing, the volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. At Market Values, Oil's reading remains better than 5 points "high" and its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends we expect to soon kink down; same can be said for the Bond's "Baby Blues". Also at Market Values, Gold shows as 50 points "low", price seemingly stuck in the 1250s after rebounding off the bottom of The Box (1280-1240); Gold's daily MACD confirmed a "weak" positive crossing, for which a conservative MRT of 1271.5 might be considered. June's PPI and May's Wholesale Inventories come into the Econ Baro.
10 Jul '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Save for small gains in Oil and the S&P, both +0.2%, the other 6 BEGOS Markets all are lower, led down by yesterday's metals winners with Copper -1.7%, Silver -1.2% and Gold -0.8%. Volatility ranges from mild -- Oil with and EDTR tracing of just 28% -- to robust with the 3 metals all sporting EDTR tracings in excess of 100%. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short: that study falls shy of making our present Market Rhythms listing, however at Market Trends the Bond's "Baby Blues" are sufficiently toppy such as to make us wary of further price slide. Q2 Earnings Season is underway, so mind the S&P Valuations and Rankings page over the ensuing weeks.
09 Jul '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: The metals components of the BEGOS Markets are the week's early leaders, Copper +1.2%, Silver +1.1% and Gold +0.8%; The Gold Update emphasizes the yellow metal's having briefly trading down to the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) last Mon evening before rebounding on sound volume; only the Bond and Oil are lower and volatility is moderate-to-robust. At Market Values, Oil is running 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line: at Market Trends we're watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" to eventually crack and for its daily MACD to cross negative in the ensuing days should price continue to stall in the 73-74 area, which also is structural resistance from back in 2011.
06 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: We again find the BEGOS Markets little changed either way, jobs data and the Trade Deficit awaiting the Econ Baro; the sole exception is Oil, -1.1%: its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends nonetheless in real-time are up to 78%, but look to be topping; conversely, those as we noted for Gold, are now just perceptibly turning up, yet remain are well-down at -90%; and those for the Spoo -- despite its firming this week -- are lower still, pushing the -76% in real-time. Session volatility ahead of the noted data is at best moderate, tariff imposition notwithstanding.
05 Jul '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Continuation of the 2-day session does not find volatility ramped up as much as we'd anticipated, the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings all sub-100% except for Copper's now 199% expanse: the red metal is the weakest of the bunch, -2.0%; the Spoo is still firmest, +0.6%, the other components not overly changed either way. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are making the earliest sign of bottoming, albeit those for Silver, Copper, and the Spoo remain in full plummet. The FOMC's 12-13 June meeting minutes come due today; the Econ Baro receives the Jun data for ADP jobs and ISM(Svc).
04 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: With the 2-day session well under way, we find Copper as the weakest of the BEGOS bunch, -1.1%, and also the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 129%; lower too is Oil, -0.6%; the Spoo is the firmest market, +0.3%, but beware its plummeting "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page; save for the red metal, volatility is light-to-moderate, yet that will likely shift toward being robust given this session's not settling until tomorrow (05 July), albeit we've today's 10:00-15:00 PT Independence Day halt. Gold, as we saw having yesterday tested the bottom of The Box (1280-1240), has continued to rebound, the session's high thus far being 1262. The Econ Baro benefited from yesterday's noted incoming data.
03 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Barely lower are both the Bond and Swiss Franc, the balance of the BEGOS Markets moving higher led by Oil +1.0%, Silver +0.7%, and Gold plus the Spoo both +0.4%; the latter closes at 10:15 PT, the others as usual at 14:00 PT; all then open as usual at 15:00, but with an Independence Day trading halt tomorrow from 10:00-to-15:00 PT, 04 July being cobbled into a 2-day session for 05 July's settle. Volatility thus far today is moderate, Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 93%; the yellow metal was swiftly bought after twice briefly penetrating the bottom of The Box (1280-1240), the low both times being at 1238.8 some 2 hours apart last evening. May's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro, plus June's Vehicle Sales as the day unfolds.
02 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: A reversal of Friday 'round this time as, save for the Bond's being up a few pips, the BEGOS Markets are lower into this first trading day of 2018's second semester, led to the downside by Silver, -1.0%, Copper and the S&P both -0.5%, and Gold -0.4%: The Gold Update emphasizes Gold's needing to gather itself so as not to bust below The Box (1280-1240), especially on a weekly close, for 'twould nullify our forecast high for this year of 1434. Per Gold's Market Profile, its near-term trading resistors (with price presently 1250) are 1252, 1257 & 1260. June's ISM(Mfg) Index and May Construction Spending are due today for the Econ Baro.
29 Jun '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond off but a pip, the BEGOS Markets are higher into this final trading day of 2018's first semester. As we saw 'round this time yesterday, the Euro is again leading the EDTR tracings at 112%, the Swiss Franc robust as well with a 103% tracing; volatility is otherwise moderate, except for Oil with just a 37% tracing. Oil now trading in the 73s, the low 60s areas of structural support did hold as anticipated per the month's early comments: yet now, the 70s mark a revisit to "price bunching" from 2010 and structural resistance (from what had been support) in 2011. Yesterday also saw Silver again make fresh lows for the year, enough so to achieve the downside MRT of 15.980. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include May's Personal Income/Spending/PCE, plus the Chi PMI for June.
28 Jun '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil is +0.6%; Copper is -0.6%: the balance of the BEGOS bunch are little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro is leading the EDTR tracings at 75%, Silver the most docile component with just a 26% tracing. Silver set a new low for the year yesterday, the Jul cac trading down to 15.945: as noted, volume today is moving into the Sep cac for which the revised like MRT is 9¢ above the Jul cac (15.890) at 15.980, the low thus far this session being 16.115; (the daily Moneyflow reading for Silver is again 26 on a scale of 100-0). The final Q1 GDP reading comes due today for the Econ Baro.
27 Jun '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only Oil, +0.7%, and the Bond, +0.4%, are up, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the red, Silver being the weakest, -0.6%; the white metal's daily Moneyflow is now down to 26 (scale 100-0), our MRT being 15.890 (Jul cac)/ 15.960 (Sep cac); volume ought be rolling into the latter cac tomorrow, as is Copper's volume so doing today. Session volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Magnets, extreme readings find Gold an unduly 22 points "low" whilst Oil rates some 4 points "high". Metrics for the Econ Baro today include May's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver's daily Moneyflow reading is working lower, presently down to 34 (scale 100-0), keeping on track our 15.890 (15.960 Sep) MRT; price this session has traded as low as 16.185, a level not seen since 02 May. Silver and Gold, both -0.6%, are the BEGOS Markets' weakest links, the yellow metal being the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 111%; otherwise, volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. As noted in The Gold Update, the case of the PMs falling appears out of sorts given the rise in the EuroCurrencies and the Bond these past 2 weeks, even as the Dollar too has been coming off the past few days. Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
25 Jun '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Leading most of the BEGOS Markets lower is Oil, -1.1%, followed by the Spoo, -0.5%; only the Bond is higher, +0.2%. Gold, whilst leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, is off but -0.1%. The Gold Update's rude awakening is that price is essentially where 'twas 8 years ago, back in what we today refer to as "The Box" (1280-1240), and yet (of course) the fundamental increases in M2 and debt ought have Gold double its current level. Silver's daily Moneyflow (see its chart in The Gold Update) continues to weaken, having moved sub-40, the MRT of 15.890 (or 15.960 Sep) being maintained. The Econ Baro kicks off a moderate incoming flow of Econ Data with May's New Home Sales.
22 Jun '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond's being slightly lower, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are up, led by Oil +0.9% ahead of a Fri/Sat OPEC stint and Silver +0.6%; still, the white metal's daily Moneyflow remains sub-48 (scale 100-0) and that measure would have to confirm a level above 52 to nullify the present Short signal for which we've an MRT of 15.890, (Silver's low thus far in 2018 is 16.07); at Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" in realtime have reached down to their 0% axis: they've not visited their -80% axis since mid-Dec. Session volatility is moderate and the Econ Baro is set for this week.
21 Jun '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil is down the most of the BEGOS Markets, -0.8%, however price (64.83) remains in the upper reaches of this lower 60s structural basing area as mentioned these past few weeks. Only the Bond and Copper are marginally up, and volatility is moderate. As anticipated, Silver's daily Moneyflow confirmed settling yesterday sub-48, giving us an MRT (as measured from this session's opening at 16.290) of 15.890. Gold (1265) is working its way down into the center of The Box (1280-1240), which we don't expect to be fully penetrated. The Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators come into the Econ Baro.
20 Jun '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Weakest of the BEGOS Markets are the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc -0.4% and Euro -0.3%; otherwise, the components are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate; Tariff-Talk which was so market-dominant yesterday has seemingly "fallen from the front page". Silver's daily Moneyflow is poised to confirm a crossing sub-48 (scale 100-0) come session's end: per the Market Rhythms page, that would trigger an MRT of 0.400 points lower ($2,000/cac); we'd eye that signal warily as 1) 'twould send Silver sub-16 for the 1st time this year, and 2) we don't see any justification for selling the PMs. The Q1 Current Account comes due for the Econ Baro, as does May's Existing Home Sales.
19 Jun '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly robust across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum, led by the Spoo which has traced 187% of its EDTR: after much of yesterday's selling was recovered, the Spoo has blown through that low (2761) down to 2736, further Tariff-Talk getting the blame; Copper is the weakest component, -2.1%, and the Bond is the firmest, +0.5%. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are falling for most of the bunch, the 2 exceptions being the Euro and Oil: at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold has made a marginal new low for the year (1277). The Econ Baro looks to Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Jun '18, 04:59 Pacific Time: Whilst most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, the Spoo is working lower, -0.5%; the Spoo had become overbought by all 3 of our "textbook" technical measures (BollBands, RSI and Stos) and is of course fundamentally as stated The Gold Update "terrifically overvalued" based on the unsupportive earnings of the S%P 500's constituents. Volatility is mostly moderate and Oil is the upside leader, +0.7%; despite its having lurched down on Fri, Oil has been basing as anticipated these past 2 weeks in the 64-66 area, overall support in the lower 60s stretching back to Mar; cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. The NAHB Housing Market Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
15 Jun '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: Oil and the Spoo are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, both -0.4%, whilst the Bond is the upside leader at +0.2%; volatility is moderate. The EuroCurrencies' cac volumes are moving from Jun into Sep. By so many technical measures we've been anticipating a severe move lower for the S&P, (not to mention our "live" p/e at present being a record 62.7x): for example, the Spoo's 6-hr. Parabolics (not listed on the Market Rhythms page given the goal is less than $1,000/cac) nonetheless have produced follow-through of at least 10 points ($500/cac) in all 10 of its last flips, the next one to Short likely getting confirmed at 06:00 PT for a target of 10 Spoo points lower from that period's opening. Due for the Econ Baro are the NY Empire Index, IndProd/CapUtil, and UofM Sentiment.
14 Jun '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Fed's +0.25% rate rise now in the rear-view mirror (with 2 more raises "expected" by year's end) and the ECB's "tapering" decision dead ahead, the BEGOS Markets are more robust than 'round this time yesterday. The PM's are the upside leaders, Silver +0.7% having found its way back into the 17s for the 1st time since 23 Apr; 'tis also the most volatile component having traced 100% of its EDTR; Copper -0.5% is the weakest of the bunch; Oil is least volatile with just a 28% EDTR tracing. Ex/Im Pricing, Retail Sales and Business Inventories highlight the incoming Econ Baro metrics.
13 Jun '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed with the FOMC's 0.25% rate hike in the balance; no one component is presently changed by 0.2% in either direction and volatility is mostly light. The 8-hr. Moneyflow on the Spoo -- having recorded good Market Rhythm performance -- has turned whippy: obviously the S&P remains vastly overvalued, such that we're sticking to our full 25% correction call down to 2154. The Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are curling down from above their +80% level; save for the Euro and Oil, the other 6 of the bunch are in 21-day linear regression uptrends. Prior to the Fed, the Econ Baro receives the May PPI.
12 Jun '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Little market reaction has followed the Trump/Kim Singapore Summit: on balance, there's some post-talk selling, led by Silver -0.4%, with Gold, Copper and Oil all -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Spoo's 8-hr. Moneyflow, presently on the Market Rhythms list, crossed sub-50 (scale 100-0) at midnight PT: should a sub-48 reading be confirmed, we'd then have a MRT for 28 points lower ($1,400/cac) from the opening price of the then subsequent 8-hr. period. Data coming due for the Econ Baro today includes the May CPI. Also today, the FOMC meeting kicks off, the +0.25% Fed Funds Rate announcement being tomorrow.
11 Jun '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The week highlighting Wed's 0.25% Fed rate hike begins with only the Bond marginally to the upside; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are working lower (a reversal of what has characterized recent sessions), led by Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.0%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update again cites just how narrow has become the trading ranges of the PMs, Gold's EDTR at 10 points and that for Silver at 0.20 points ... and it doesn't appear rationale that Tue's Trump/Kim Singapore Summit ought offer much in expanding price range or valuation. The rest of the week then brings a plentiful dose of incoming data for the Econ Baro.
08 Jun '18, 08:29 Central Euro Time: Oil and the Spoo are the BEGOS Markets' weak links; that said, Oil at 65.65 has avoided the 63s such that it may be seeking a bottom through here, taking into account the 64-61 structural support area. Cac volume on the Spoo is moving from Jun into Sep. At Market Values, Oil remains at a fairly "low" extreme and the Spoo at one which is "high". At Market Ranges the PMs EDTRs remain at very narrow levels. And at Market Trends, the accelerative climb of the Euro's "Baby Blues" continues. Session volatility is thus far light, but picking up toward moderate. Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
07 Jun '18, 08:30 Central Euro Time: At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are defying price's recent up move, now early on into a 5th consecutive day; at Market Values, price is better than 100 points above the smooth valuation line, as extreme as we've seen in at least a year, not to mention the "live" p/e being 54x. For the 3rd straight session, again just the Bond is a bit lower while the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher; early on, volatility is light. An increase in Consumer Credit for April is due to hit the Econ Baro late in the session.
06 Jun '18, 08:54 Central Euro Time: Similar to yesterday, only the Bond at present is lower; leading the BEGOS Markets higher are Silver and Oil, both +0.5%; volatility is light. Further to our prior note, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to plummet: but given the cited structural support (64-61) price now at 65.83 is better than a full point above yesterday's low (64.22), yet with just 33% of today's EDTR having been traced. The Euro's Baby Blues in real-time are beginning to accelerate their upward glide; the Euro's Market Profile shows trading support in the 1.1730 to 1.1680 range. The Econ Baro awaits Apr's Trade Deficit and the revision to Q1 Productivity.
05 Jun '18, 11:30 Central Euro Time: Save for the barely-down Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are mildly higher, led by Copper +0.4%; volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their sub-0% plummet; however, mind too Oil's Market Magnet and its smooth valuation line at Market Values: both measures suggest that Oil's ongoing sell-off is getting "long in the tooth" as price (presently 65.05) nears structural support in the 64-61 area from back in early April. ISM(Svc) hits the Econ Baro later today.
04 Jun '18, 08:31 Central Euro Time: A subtle start to a fairly light week of incoming Econ Data: the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, no one component presently more than 0.2% changed from Friday's settle; volatility is light, save for Copper with a 64% tracing of its EDTR. The Gold Update emphasizes the narrow trading range of the precious metals, especially given all the geopolitical goings-ons and the challenge facing a still overwhelmingly overvalued S&P 500 and erratic Econ Baro track with further FED rate hikes still assumed to be looming. An April decline for Factory Orders is due today.
01 Jun '18, 15:28 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper and the Spoo, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower: volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Gold and the Swiss Franc exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. May's employment data came in ahead of both consensus and Apr's readings; still in today's Econ Data balance are the ISM Index, Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are now confirmed as having crossed below their 0% axis, suggestive of further price decline, albeit there is firming in this 65-67 area. Those for the Spoo are accelerating their decline, and whilst they're still above 0%, price's ability to remain above 2700 appears suspect.
31 May '18, 14:25 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are thus far a bit calmer vs. the prior two days, the one exception perhaps Oil which is -1.1%, its "Baby Blues" only now in real-time crossing below their 0% axis; volatility is moderate rather than reaching the robust levels we've been seeing, albeit at the Market Ranges pages, EDTRs on balance have increased. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favourite inflation measure of core PCE, along with the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales.
30 May '18, 19:34 Central Euro Time: Today's Spoo is playing "what goes down must come up", in trading nearly back up to yesterday's high (2731) with 2727 having thus far printed. Indeed save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets all are higher today, and volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold's volume is moving from the Jun cac into that for Aug, and as the week unfolds, the Bond's cac volume will shift from Jun into Sep. The second read on Q1 GDP slipped a notch from 2.3% to 2.2%, as did the Chain Deflator's from 2.0% to 1.9%. Amidst yesterday's PIIGS concerns, the Swiss Franc reached our MRT at 1.0144.
29 May '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: PIIGS jitters -- specifically Italian and to an extent Spanish -- have equities falling and debt rising as the two-day BEGOS Markets session continues. Firmest is the Bond +1.0% and weakest are the Spoo and Euro, both -1.0%; volatility is robust with 6 of the 8 components' EDTR tracings exceeding 100%, and notably for the Bond and Euro, exceeding 200%. There is some negative pull on the Swiss Franc, but not enough to turn the daily MACD negative: thus the MRT for 1.0144 remains in place. Week-over-week Oil has swing from the 72s down into the 65s. The week's parade of metrics coming into the Econ Baro begins today with Consumer Confidence.
28 May '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: U.S. and U.K. bourses are closed, however the BEGOS Markets are trading. Oil continues to come off: per our 24 May note, Oil then was trading in the 71s; 'tis now in the 66s. The Swiss Franc had neared the 1.0144 MRT before having since pulled back, yet the daily MACD remains positive, keeping that Target in play; the Euro, now in the 1.16s, has reached down to its lowest level since 13 Nov. The Gold Update looks for the yellow metal to be seeking its low for the year, i.e. that support afforded by the 1290s-1260s ought hold. 18 metrics come due this week for the Econ Baro.
25 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Ahead of the StateSide and U.K. 3-day weekend the BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by the Bond +0.3% and on the downside by Oil -2.3%, the latter as anticipated per yesterday's note; Oil has traced 140% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is moderate for the other components. The PMs have exhibited firmness every since Gold went sub-1300 on 15 May: 'tis now back above that level. The Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" appear poised to break above their 0%-axis early in the new week, and with the daily MACD staying its positive course, our MRT remains 1.0144. The Econ Baro receives its final metrics for the week, including Apr's Durable Orders.
24 May '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil appears to be beginning to crack: at Market Trends its "Baby Blues" have kinked lower in real-time, at Market Values price is some 3.5 points above the smooth valuation line, and the 8-hr. Price Oscillator likely will go negative today. Our MRT for the Swiss Franc of 1.0144 remains in place, the daily MACD still positive; as well, the Franc's Baby Blues continue their upward acceleration and the daily Price Oscillator is nearing a positive crossing. The BEGOS Markets Metals and EuroCurrencies are all higher; Oil, the Bond and Spoo are lower; volatility is moderate. Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
23 May '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc is up to its highest level since 01 May (1.0128) as it nears our MRT of 1.0144 given the ongoing positive track of the daily MACD. The Spoo has more than closed its weekend gap from the U.S./China "trade tensions truce", last Friday's settle having been 2712, price up to yesterday's high of 2741, and then down to this session's low of 2704. The Swiss Franc, Gold and Bond are up; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are down; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the weakest and rangiest of the bunch being Copper -1.9% with a 170% EDTR tracing. Minutes of the 01/02 May FOMC meeting come due, as well as New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.
22 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: The PMs are maintaining their firmness with which they returned yesterday; Oil -0.3% is the weakest BEGOS Market and Copper +0.9% is the upside leader; volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends the Swiss Franc is accelerating is climbout, and with the daily MACD still positive, our MRT remains 1.0144. The Bond is testing Market Profile support at 141^06. At Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear very "High" whilst both the Euro and Gold show as very "low", all relative to their respective deviations from their smooth valuation lines from a year ago-to-date.
21 May '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo gapped up beyond its "high if an up day" guesstimate of 2733.75 on talk of a "trade tensions truce" between the U.S. and China; price has since whittled away a bit to 2728.75, but nonetheless is still +0.6%; Copper is higher as well, +1.3%, but the balance of the BEGOS bunch are flat to lower, led by the PMs. Gold has traded down nearly to the top of The Box (1280-1260) which as noted in The Gold Update we expect to be supportive as the low for this year, price then to ascend to our forecast high of 1434. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD continues its positive track, the MRT being 1.0144. Q1 Earnings Season has concluded with 71% of 2074 reporting companies beating their Q1 of last year; specific to the S&P 500, of its 434 earnings reports, 85% improved.
18 May '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: On balance the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the weakest being Copper -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD remains positive, the "Baby Blues" continuing their climbout, the MRT still in play for 1.0144. Cac vol for Oil is moving from Jun into Jul. At Market Values, Gold is some 50 points below its smooth valuation line, which by that chart's oscillator is an extreme low; similarly, Oil's chart shows it as (still) being at an extreme high 'round +5 points. The Econ Baro has already closed out the week with a gain, and Q1 Earnings Season wraps up today.
17 May '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc has been rather quiet since its daily MACD turned positive, which still 'tis, whilst at Market Trends the Franc's "Baby Blues" are more notably on the rise; so the MRT of 1.0144 remains in place. Our "textbook technicals" (BollBands, RSI and Stos) on the Spoo all show it as "overbought", albeit its Baby Blues are accelerating higher. Oil is as it highest level (72.30) since Nov 2014; it is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed and volatility again moderate. The Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
16 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, the mild exception being the Euro -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The daily MACD on the Swiss Franc continues its positive track, our MRT of 1.0144 being maintained. Gold is trading in the 1200s for the first time this year: The Gold Update has repetitively pointed to May's being a poor month for the yellow metal as it now bangs about in Neverland, aka "The Whiny 1290s"; we look to the The Box (1280-1260) as stalwart support. The Spoo's slide yesterday was not enough for price to reach down to its magnet, yesterday's settle still some 35 points "high". Metrics coming into the Econ Baro today are Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.
15 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Given confirmation of the two noted EuroCurrencies' studies, we're siding with the Swiss Franc's now positive daily MACD, from which we've an MRT of 1.0144. Save for Oil and Copper, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, with volatility again is moderate. Despite the Spoo's having settled higher for 8 consecutive sessions, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have only barely broken above their 0% axis, and at Market Magnet price settled yesterday as 62 points "high", an extreme level across the last 3 months of readings; at Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR has been dropping, yet at 31 points, a sell-off today suggests a low "guesstimate" of 2704 per the Spoo's page itself. Arriving for the Econ Baro are Retail Sales, the NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and the NAHB's Housing Index.
14 May '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: A mixed start to the new week for the BEGOS Markets, 5 of which are up, led by the Euro and Oil both +0.4%, the other 3 down, led by Copper -0.8%; volatility is moderate. The Euro's daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long and the Swiss Franc's daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive: upon confirmation, both would present MRTs, however we'd likely side with the latter as it has presented a more consistent Market Rhythm result as currently listed on that page. A moderate amount of data is due this week for the Econ Baro, all of it due to arrive Tue-Thu; as well, 'tis the final week of Q1Earnings Season.
11 May '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round this time yesterday, all of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, (meaning we don't need to see a chart of the Dollar to know 'tis down). Silver, +0.4%, is the firmest of the bunch; volatility is light-to-moderate. Both the Swiss Franc's daily MACD and Euro's daily Parabolics are quite close respectively to going positive and flipping to Long; confirmation in both cases is possible by session's end; mind as well both currencies' "Baby Blues" at Market Trends, that indicator just beginning to curl higher. Ex/Im pricing and UofM Sentiment come into the Econ Baro today.
10 May '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently higher and volatility is mostly moderate, the outlier being Copper with an EDTR tracing of 104%; the red metal is also the firmest of the bunch, +1.3%, followed by the white metal, +0.7%. The Dollar's beginning to show signs of cooling ought in the ensuing few sessions flip the daily Parabolics on the Euro to Long and cross the daily MACD on the Swiss Franc to positive: both of those studies are on our current list at Market Rhythms. The Econ Baro awaits the CPI data.
09 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold, -0.5%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and is also leading the volatility with an EDTR tracing of 105%; for the balance of the bunch, volatility is moderate. The upside leader is Oil, +1.3%: at Market Values, Oil shows as at an extreme high (+5 points) vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; price is high as well per Oil's Market Magnet. The Spoo, +0.4%, saw its aforementioned 2-hr. Moneyflow cross sub-48 yesterday: in real-time 'tis presently 50, and would have to confirm closing a 2-hr. period above 52 before nullifying the case to be Short. Due for the Econ Baro are the PPI and Wholesale Inventories.
08 May '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Trump on Iran ought be a markets' mover 'round 11:00 Pacific. Save for the "unch " Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets are working lower on light-to-moderate volatility. A key Spoo Market Rhythm to mind (not on the Market Rhythms list as it seeks a very aggressive profit level) is the 2-hr. Moneyflow: it triggers a signal upon crossing (on a scale of 0-100) above 52 (for Longs) else below 48 (for Shorts) and may well trigger to the downside during today: its average duration is some 3 calendar days, having crossed 10 times since early April and because of the Spoo's volatility has demonstrated fairly profitable follow-through; as always, cash management is King;
07 May '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Following the Spoo's reaching its conservative MRT (2610.75) as noted, the daily MACD is now provisionally positive; but if it confirm by day's end, we shan't seek an upside MRT, given our view that the S&P is in an overall 25% correction (targeting 2154). The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short: that study is currently makes our list on the Market Rhythms page. The Gold Update underscores May expectantly having starting off weakly, price reaching a low for the year last Tue, with the upper 1200s likely in the offing. The Swiss Franc is below 1.0000 (0.9985) for the 1st time since 06 Nov and with an EDTR tracing of 110% is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is otherwise mostly moderate and price changes mixed.
04 May '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Spoo's negative daily MACD quickly carried price to the conservative MRT (2610.75); despite the Spoo's then recovering in full to the area 'round its Market Profile apex of 2631, the MACD is further negative in this session thus keeping the aggressive MRT (2564.75) in place. With Apr payrolls data in the balance, the BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is essentially light: Oil is firmest +0.4% and Copper weakest -0.6%. The Dollar's recent rise has shoved the Euro to an extreme "low" area vis-à-vis its Market Values chart.
03 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The daily MACD on the Spoo confirmed a negative cross to give us an MRT from today's open (2626.75) of conservatively 16 points down to 2610.75 ($800/cac), and/or aggressively 62 points down to 2564.75 ($3,100/cac); the year-to-date low is 2529.00. Post-Fed, we've all 8 BEGOS Markets in the black and volatility mostly is moderate, the outlier being Copper +1.3% and having traced 107% of its EDTR. A rash of Econ Data comes in today for the Econ Baro, including Q1 Productivity, the Trade Deficit, Factory Orders and ISM(Svc).
02 May '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Spoo momentarily is "unch" with the FOMC's policy statement due today; the Spoo's range thus far is 15 points, which is a 41% tracing of the present EDTR of 37 points. Save for Oil being -0.1%, the other BEGOS Markets are up, with metals leading the way: Silver +1.3%, Copper +0.8% and Gold +0.5%. We're still minding the Spoo's daily MACD for a negative crossing but now are wary the angle of cross is practically negligible; still per the Market Rhythms list, that study is currently the most robust of the bunch. Ahead of the Fed for the Econ Baro comes the ADP employment data.
01 May '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, again led by Oil -1.0%. However, Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator whipped to a positive cross, in turn nixing our 66.41 MRT. But Silver did achieve the 16.275 MRT. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, and many of the Euro-bourses are closed for their 01 May Fête du Travail, et alia. The Spoo's daily MACD again is approaching a negative cross toward establishing an MRT upon confirmation. ISM(Mfg) and Construction Spending work into the Econ Baro, along with vehicle sales as the day unfolds,.
30 Apr '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are working lower to start the week, led to the downside by Oil (-1.0%) and the PMs; The Gold Update points to a dour May and already the weekly Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short. Silver's daily Moneyflow has confirmed going sub-50 (scale 100-0) from an entry level of 16.555 (currently 16.400) for an MRT of 16.275. Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has negatively crossed from an entry level of 67.51 (currently 67.32) for an MRT of 66.41. Copper and the Spoo are mildly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate. The week is highlighted by the FOMC's rate decision on Wed, plus 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics, today including the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, plus Personal Income/Spending, the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales.
27 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: Except for Copper which is -2.0% and has traced 116% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets otherwise are little changed either way and volatility is mostly light, all this ahead of the 1st peek at Q1 GDP: mind that the Econ Baro had pretty much slid throughout Q1 such that a sub-2.0% (which is the "expectation") reading wouldn't be that much of a surprise. Per yesterday's note, the Bond now is rising for the 2nd straight day; Silver's daily Moneyflow has provisionally has dipped sub-50 (also, cac vol is moving from May into Jul); and the Spoo's daily MACD has yet to cross negatively.
26 Apr '18, 04:37 Pacific Time: The Bond -- after 6 consecutive down days -- is +0.4%, 2nd just to Oil +0.7%; only Copper -0.7% (the cac volume for which is moving from May into Jul) is lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Magnets, you can see the Bond finished yesterday nearly 2.5 points "low", which by its graphic's oscillator is fairly extreme. The Spoo's daily MACD has yet to cross negative, but still is pointed toward so doing. Silver's daily Moneyflow looks on track to cross sub-50: as listed at Market Rhythms, follow-through from such crossings has been 0.280 points ($1,400/cac) in all 10 of the last prior occurrences. The ECB and Draghi are due, along with Durable Orders for the Econ Baro.
25 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo's move lower yesterday precluded the 8-hr. Parabolics from flipping back to Long; moreover, the daily MACD is nearing a negative cross which upon confirmation would provide a conservative downside MRT of 16 points ($800/cac) or aggressively 62 points ($3,100/cac). All of the BEGOS Markets are lower (save for Copper +0.1%), Silver being the weakest -1.0%; volatility is moderate. But at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower from above the 80% level for the 2nd straight day. A rare quirk for Earnings Season: with the help of the lowered corporate tax rate, more companies are topping their Q1s of a year ago than are beating estimates.
24 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The same study for the Spoo that yesterday enabled price reaching the "aggressive" MRT of 2659.50 finds the 8-hr. Parabolics nearing their flip back to Long should price (presently 2686.50) exceed the 2688-2691 area today, (depending on time of day); that noted, we'd be wary of chasing upside Spoo MRTs, if even the study is listed on the Market Rhythms page. Save for Copper (+1.9%) and the Spoo (+0.5%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are either side of "unch" and volatility is light, expect for the red metal having traced 103% of its EDTR. New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Apr '18, 04:38 Pacific Time: On Friday, the 8-hr. Parabolics for the Spoo swiftly reached our "conservative" MRT of 2679.50 and came within one pip (2679.75) for our "aggressive" MRT of 2659.50. The Spoo gapped up to 2684.75 at this session's open, but at present, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is moderate; back above 90, the Dollar is at its highest level since 12 Jan. The Gold Update points to a move back into the 16s for Silver (as now is the case), should the yellow metal not be supportive of the white metal's recent up move solely as an industrial metal. The 10-yr. Note yield is 2.951%, with much FinMedia buzz about it nearing 3%, (which is where it last topped out at the end of 2013). The Econ Baro looks to Existing Home Sales.
20 Apr '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics flipped to Short yesterday: as measured from an entry price price of 2695.50 (08:00 Pacific, 19 Apr), our conservative downside MRT is 2679.50 (16 points or $800/cac), or aggressively 2659.50, (36 points or $1,800/cac). Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, led by Silver -0.6%; volatility is light to moderate. Evidence of the lower corporate tax rate kicking in is reflected in the 52 S&P companies having thus far reported as 50 of them (96%) have bettered their Q1 of a year ago. No data is due today for the Econ Baro.
19 Apr '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way, Oil up the most at +0.6% and Copper the weakest at -0.4%. Volatility is moderate, again save for the Spoo which sports thus far an EDTR tracing of only 21%, albeit at Market Ranges we can see that for the Spoo is coming off the year's high extremes: but we look for that ranginess to increase upon the overall 25% S&P correction again picking up steam. To that end, mind the Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics as they could flip to Short fairly readily. Metrics today for the Econ Baro include the Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators, which by their lagging nature ought have slowed given the Baro's decline this year.
18 Apr '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver is streaking toward 17, (high 16.965): yesterday marked the 50th consecutive trading day of Silver's trading entirely within the 16 handle; Silver along with Copper and Oil are all up better than 1.0%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with an EDTR tracing of just 29% to robust for Copper's 118% tracing. Silver's daily Moneyflow confirmed crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) at yesterday's close, giving us a MRT (from this session's opening at 16.785) of 17.065: this Market Rhythm has produced follow-through of at least 0.280 points ($1,400/cac) as measured from each signal's opening price 10 of the last 10 times as is in the current list at Market Rhythms. The Fed's Tan Tome is due today.
17 Apr '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Euro's daily Parabolic has provisionally flipped to Long: that nixes our MRT of 1.22360. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, save for Copper which is -0.6% and the Spoo which is +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Magnets, the Spoo adjusted for real-time is some 50 points "high". At Market Values, Oil has begun to come off from its high extreme level above the smooth valuation line, although price remains quite stretched at better than 3 full points "high"; Oil's cac volume is moving from May into Jun. Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due for the Econ Baro.
16 Apr '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed with volatility moderate. As suggested in The Gold Update, the yellow metal is off a bit (-0.2%) post-Syria strike given no further fallout from that issue and Gold's wont to typically "return from whence it came" following geo-political events. The Euro is higher (+0.3%) but not enough as yet to flip the daily Parabolics to Long: today 'twould have to eclipse the 1.24570 level (presently 1.24210) to nix the MRT of 1.22360. A bevy of metrics hit the Econ Baro including Retail Sales, the NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Index.
13 Apr '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Remaining Short are the Euro's daily Parabolics: price currently is 1.23710, the Parabolic itself for today is 1.24685, and our MRT sits down there at 1.22360; at Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" are crawling across their mid-chart 0% axis, whilst those for the Swiss Franc are instead in descent sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Values, Oil is nearly 5 points above its smooth valuation line and 3 points above its Market Magnet: both readings are "high" extremes. Q1 bank earnings are beginning to roll in and the Econ Baro gets the UofM Sentiment survey.
12 Apr '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolics on the now falling Euro are still to the Shortside, so the 1.22360 MRT remains alive; indeed all of the BEGOS Markets are lower save for the Spoo which is +0.4%, yet is sporting the narrowest of the EDTRs, from which volatility for the bunch runs from light-to-robust with Copper and the Swiss Franc exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Gold made a high for the year yesterday at 1369 -- just 8 points shy of Base Camp 1377 -- before succumbing back down into the upper 1340s; Silver has yet to break out of the 16s (in that handle now for the 47th consecutive session). Gold, Copper and Oil all are somewhat "high" vis-à-vis their Market Magnets. Ex/Im pricing hits the Econ Baro today.
11 Apr '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Euro's daily Parabolics still are Short, however the upper 1.24s would flip them Long which would nix our MRT of 1.22360; the MRT based on Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator was swiftly reached yesterday (from an entry of 64.37 to the Target of 65.47). The BEGOS Markets are mixed, ranging from Oil +1.0% to the Spoo -0.9%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are beginning to curl upward from the -81% level, however we still see any material upside as limited within the overall -25% correction context. The Econ Baro receives the CPI and Treasury Budget. FOMC Minutes also are due, albeit their 20/21 Mar meeting was followed by Powell's 1st such press conference.
10 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility has up-shifted to moderate from this time yesterday; that noted, at Market Ranges we see the recently rising EDTRs now at best stalling if not falling, the one exception being that for the Spoo which is set at 58 points coming into today, the actual range already spanning 46 points. Save for the Bond, the other 7 components are higher. Still, the daily Parabolics remain Short for the Euro and its 1.22360 MRT. Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally turned positive: upon confirmation (06:00 PT) 'twould give us a Target of 1.1 points higher ($1,100/cac) from that period's opening price. PPI and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
09 Apr '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility has slowed as the BEGOS Markets start the week: only Copper and Gold have traced better than 50% of their EDTRs; those 2 components along with the Spoo are up, the balance are down. The Euro's daily Parabolics are still Short, the MRT of 1.22360 remaining in play. The Gold Update highlights the narrow trade of the PMs year-to-date despite the plights that ought have prices moving higher. Mind the sliding Econ Baro. Q1 Earnings Season is beginning, wherein for the 1st time we ought see the effect of the lowered corporate tax cut (from 35% to 21%).
06 Apr '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: More Trump tariff talk has tanked the Spoo as much 40 points; currently 'tis -20, (-0.7%); only the Bond and Eurocurrencies are in the black and volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets. The Euro has reached down as low as 1.22765, the daily Parabolics remaining to the Shortside towards keeping in place the 1.22360 MRT; at Market Values, the Euro this week has crossed beneath its smooth valuation line after having been above it most of the year-to-date. Coming into week's end, Silver likely will find itself entirely within the 16 handle for the 43rd consecutive trading day, (from 05 Feb onward). We've Mar jobs data for the Econ Baro and then Jay Powell from the Economic Club of Chicago.
05 Apr '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Save for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower and volatility is moderate. The Euro's daily Parabolics continue their Short trend, maintaining our MRT of 1.22360; at Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" are falling for their 6th consecutive day and look to fall below the 0% axis line going into week's end. The Bond's "Baby Blues" in real-time have kinked lower, having fallen just short of achieving the +80% axis; price has made a "lower low" for 3 straight sessions. At Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR is 58 points; if one can withstand the volatility, the Spoo's 1-hr. Parabolics have been providing material follow-through for at least the past two weeks. The Trade Deficit hits the Econ Baro today.
04 Apr '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Fresh PRC tariffs on StateSide stuff have the Spoo in a tailspin, off as much as 2% thus far, and Copper even more so -2.4% at present; Oil also is lower, the other 5 BEGOS Markets higher; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's daily Parabolics flipped to Short giving us an MRT of 1.22360; Copper's daily MACD confirmed crossing to positive but has provisionally whipsawed back to negative: had one leapt on that Long, the loss at present (from the session's open at 3.0670) would be -$1,838/cac barring a more protective cash management stop. ADP jobs data comes in for the Econ Baro, along with Factory Orders and the ISM(Svc) readings.
03 Apr '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil, Copper and the Spoo are thus far higher; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. We're eying 2 studies that are close to triggering MRTs: the Euro's daily Parabolics are near to flipping Short, (from which per the Market Rhythms page we'd then seek a Target of $1,300/cac lower), and Copper's Daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, (if confirmed from which we'd then seek a Target of $3,100/cac higher, or less aggressively, $1,800/cac higher). In real-time, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are just shy of crossing above their 80% axis: something to mind at the Market Trends page; the Bond also appears "high" per its Market Magnet.
02 Apr '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Q2 begins and with it shall be some "per-earnings season" entities reporting under the new tax law, so we'll be seeing if there's discernible improvement. Silver, which closed last Thursday on its high trade for the day is making intra-day highs as we type, albeit, as underscored in The Gold Update, the white metal remains well undervalued relative to the yellow metal, (it in turn of course far undervalued as well). Euro-bourses are closed today; volatility is light-to-moderate and the only BEGOS Market in the red is the Spoo, just mildly so. The Econ Baro looks for data from the ISM Index and Construction Spending.
29 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: As noted, this final trading day of the week has 6 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro including Personal Income/Spending and its Fed-favoured Core PCE inflation reading, plus the Chi PMI. The BEGOS Markets are mostly little changed either way and volatility is light. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative, essentially nixing our MRT of 1.0768 barring a reversal back higher today. Still, some 24 studies for perusal presently populate the Market Rhythms page. Post-close, trading resumes Sunday (15:00 PT)/Monday (00:00 CET). A safe, extended weekend to all.
28 Mar '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. Both Gold and the Swiss Franc are the downside leaders, each -0.6%; the latter's daily MACD is still positive, but less so, the MRT still in place for 1.0768. The Spoo's volatility finds it 100 points "low" compared to its smooth valuation line on the Market Values page, yet the S&P is some 70-120 points "high" vis-à-vis its Moneyflow page; per the Valuation and Rankings page, the p/e measurements remain extremely excessive. The Econ Baro receives the final Q4 GDP reading along with Pending Home Sales for Feb ahead of 6 more metrics tomorrow toward closing out the shortened trading week.
27 Mar '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc's daily MACD continues on the positive side thus keeping in place our MRT of 1.0768. Gold is giving back its gains of the past 3 sessions: as well, cac vol is moving from Apr into Jun; still at Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have since crossed in real-time further back above their 0% axis, although price along with that for Silver are the session's weakest of the BEGOS Markets, both -0.5%. Weaker, too, are the Bond and Eurocurrencies; firmer are the Spoo, Oil and Copper. Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Copper, the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Spoo +1.5% and the Euro +0.5%, with volatility again moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having put in best week of the year, breaking out of the narrow weekly trading range; however Silver's remains narrow, the Gold/Silver ratio at 81.4x with the white metal not having traded outside the 16s since 02 February. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD confirmed a positive crossing to give us a 1.0768 MRT (from an entry level of 1.0648 for +0.0120 points = $1,500/cac). This 4-day trading week is back-loaded with a bevy of incoming Econ Data.
23 Mar '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold reached the 1343.2 MRT and is firm for the present, up 1.0% as is Silver, the PMs leading the BEGOS Markets on the upside, the volatility for which is moderate-to-robust. The Spoo is off another 0.3%, but has been down as much as 1.1% this session: 'twouldn't be untoward to see it recover in full to yesterday's 2646.75 settle, albeit 2645 is a fresh Market Profile apex. Durable Orders and New Home Sales are scheduled to work their way into the Econ Baro, which yesterday reached its lowest reading since 02 Nov: one wonders if the Fed shall stick to its rate guidance for another 2-to-3 hikes this year.
22 Mar '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are working lower, led by the Spoo -0.7% as it flirts with the 2700 level in vindicating Tue's negative crossing of the daily MACD as noted. Volatility is moderate. Gold's 8-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed turning positive at 00:00 PT from 1330.2 for an MRT of 1343.2. At Market Magnets, note how high is Oil's price relative to its magnet. Slowing "Leading" Indicators from back in Feb are due today for the Econ Baro, which itself peaked back on 21 Dec.
21 Mar '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro will be fed Q4's Current Account deficit and Feb's Exiting Home Sales. Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly higher with volatility running light-to-moderate. We've not made much mention of late for MRTs, however the Market Rhythms page presently has 18 listed qualifiers to consider; post-Fed, we expect markets to be fairly robust in either direction, which ought bode well over the ensuing weeks for MRTs. One study of note to consider, albeit 'tis still pre-Fed, is the Spoo's daily MACD having confirmed a negative cross at yesterday's close: that rhythm is not on the list, but not for lack of follow-though: 6 of the last 10 signals have achieved at least 76 points of further price travel ($3,800/cac), however 7 such successes are needed to make the list; however, backing off to a lesser MRT increases that number, (i.e. 16 points has been achieved all 10 times).
20 Mar '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: Volatility is again moderate to this point of the session for the BEGOS Markets, the FOMC beginning their two-day affair. Most of the components are mildly lower, the exception being Oil +1.0%. Despite yesterday's 1.4% drop in the S&P, barely a dent was put in its extremely high p/e, the "live" reading for which is 54.4x; as well, the Spoo moved only marginally below its Market Magnet, and at Market Values, price is actually above the smooth valuation line. Again we've nothing due today for the Econ Baro in a week with just 6 metrics coming in, the Fed being the story.
19 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The week begins with moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are at present in the red. 'Tis a muted week for incoming data, save for the FedFunds rate being raised into the 1.50%-1.75% target range come the FOMC's policy statement on Wed. The Gold Update looks for the weekly trading range of price to begin widening along with a modest move into lower levels: the year's low of 1304 appears likely to be tested, with the weekly parabolic Long trend not allowing for much further room down, 1291 being the hurdle price.
16 Mar '18, 15:43 Pacific Time: Good news: the S&P 500 "Valuation and Rankings" page is once again being updated daily; thank you for your interest and patience. Bon Weekend!
16 Mar '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Market Ranges page clear shows the narrowing of EDTRs across the spectrum, most BEGOS components nearing their more "normal" levels, although that for the Spoo at 41 points per day still appears as excessive; still Wed's session into today's shows tighter Spoo ranges. Presently, only the Spoo is lower, just mildly so, the balance of the bunch all higher, and again volatility is comparably light relative to what have been higher EDTRs. At Market Values, four of the five primary BEGOS Markets are pretty much in line with their smooth valuation lines: only the Spoo appears somewhat "high". The incoming data parade continues today for the Econ Baro with metrics on Housing Starts/Permits, IndProd/CapUtil, and UofM Sentiment. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun, whilst that for Oil from Apr into May. That bevy of studies swinging to Long for the Euro (see 14 Mar) never really came with upside follow-through, although price is firming today thus far.
15 Mar '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly changed either way and volatility is light with another blast of Econ Data in the balance, including Ex/Im Pricing, the NY State Empire Index, Philly Fed Index and NAHB Index. Econ Baro watchers are noting its slipping for better than a month now, plus its inability to regain last Dec's high point. Trading ranges have been narrow of late for the PMs: Gold has not spanned its EDTR for 4 of the past 5 sessions, nor has Silver for all 5 sessions; both metals have traced less than 50% of their EDTRs thus far today. Copper's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their downward slide, and the 4-hr. MACD is poised for a negative cross: that study as currently listed on the Market Rhythms page suggests follow-through then of $1,200/cac (-1.0480 points further upon confirmation from the next period's opening price).
14 Mar '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The week's pace of incoming Econ Data picks up today, 5 metrics hitting the Econ Baro including PPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories. Copper is the most robust of the BEGOS Markets, +1.2% and having traced 92% of its EDTR; volatility is light for the balance of the bunch; both Oil and the Spoo are +0.4% whilst the other components are little changed either way. In yesterday's EOD work, the Euro's daily Moneyflow, 12-hr. MACD and 8-hr. Price Oscillator all swung to Long signals, their respective MRTs being 1.24175, 1.25145 and 1.24910: note that "1st Position" for the Mar Euro is Monday (19 Mar); note as well that Draghi's somewhat dovish ECB conference comments earlier this morning have since seen the Euro come off a bit.
13 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed with eyes on today's release of the Feb CPI; volatility is light, although the Yen (still not as yet formally characterized as a BEGOS component) has traded 125% of its EDTR. One shorter-term MRT we've been following is Gold's 60-min MACD, the crossovers having exhibited good follow-through in both directions, at lease of late; Gold's "Baby Blues" are finally breaking down after having clung to just below their 0% axis for a month: buying the price dips below what presently shows at 1319 in the Market Profile has been in play much of this year-to-date.
12 Mar '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo continues rallying in starting the week; the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are basically flat-to-lower, the metals being the downside leaders with Copper -1.0%, Silver -0.8% and Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update points to the buying of dips of late within an overall trendless pattern, and similarly so for Silver. Even should the S&P travel higher to exceed its all-time high (2872, 26 Jan), we'll still look to 2154 as a 25%+ correction target. A muted day today for the Econ Baro, however it shall collect 19 metrics as the week unfolds.
09 Mar '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light with payrolls data in the balance. The Market Ranges page depicts a narrowing of EDTRs: this in turn is increasing the list of studies to note on the Market Rhythms page as "Optimal Contract Profits" (for MRTs - Market Rhythm Targets) become less aggressive to achieve. Yesterday's drop in the Euro from the 1.24s now down into the 1.22s has brought price back into line with its Market Magnet. Cac volume for the Spoo is moving from Mar into Jun. Following the Dept. of Labor numbers, due as well today for the Econ Baro are Wholesale Inventories.
08 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper is the big mover amongst the BEGOS Markets, all of which are in the red , save for the Spoo; the red metal is the weakest of the bunch, -1.4%, and has traced 102% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. The Euro, which has slipped down into its 1.23 handle, appears nonetheless "high" relative to its Market Magnet, with the ECB and Draghi on deck. Per Market Profiles, the Spoo's support-to-resistance range is 2718 to 2747, with price fairly centered therein for the moment at 2732. The Econ Data calendar is minimal today ahead of the StateSide Dept. of Labor stats tomorrow.
07 Mar '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Cohn's resigning from the Econ Council during the sole hour the BEGOS Market's are closed (14:00-15:00 PT) saw the Spoo drop from its settle of 2724 to as low as 2681 before clambering back above the 2700 level, (presently 2703); the EuroCurrencies and PMs all had gains, only to now have given them back, such that to this point the components are mixed and overall volatility is light-to-moderate. As to the Spoo's perhaps closing the gap, we've a bevy of overhead resistors from 2710 up to 2724, all of which obviously were instantly hoovered by the gap-down open, but may be harder to recover in riding back up. The Econ Baro looks for a slowing in the ADP jobs data; due as well is the the Fed's Tan Tome.
06 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is more ramped up than 'twas at this time yesterday and net price changes are larger, led on the upside by both Copper and Silver with gains presently better than +1.0%. The Euro is back above 1.24, and the Bond is returning toward its low of two weeks ago in the mid-142s. The Swiss Franc by its Market Profile has traded therein up into the most dominant resistor of 1.0670. The Spoo for the present seems firm above its dominant Market Profile support of 2719, our broader expectation for the 25% correction notwithstanding. Gold appears entrapped between its Market Profile support of 1319 and resistor of 1331. A decline in Factory Orders is expected to hit the Econ Baro.
05 Mar '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed to start the week and volatility is light: again, that's relative to recent increases in the components EDTRs, as per the Market Ranges page, volatility is higher across the board than at this time a year ago. The Gold Update points to a negative (sub-50) cross by Gold's weekly Moneyflow study which historically would suggest Gold this time 'round would re-visit at least the 1290s, (last week's low was 1304); the missive also reiterates our expectation for a full 25% S&P correction (to 2154). Q4 Earnings season for 2017 is complete: 65% of the 2,217 reports gathered improved their bottom lines over Q4 of 2016: that is the highest improved percentage we've recorded since Q3 of 2006; but the overall S&P p/e remains vastly unsupportive of the current Index level; (59% of the 462 S&P companies that reported were better). Note: our S&P 500 Valuations & Rankings is temporarily not updating daily as the data broadcaster is in a migration to a new source provider, expected to be complete by mid-month. ISM(Svc) due for the Econ Baro.
02 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility is picking up for the BEGOS Markets, ranging this session from moderate to robust, the Swiss Franc notably having traded 113% of its EDTR. The components are mixed with Oil the biggest loser -1.1%. A lower open for the S&P is being pointing to by the Spoo: presently 2667, a reference level to keep in mind in the 06 Feb low of 2529, as what we see as a 25% correction (to S&P 2154) unfolds by Nov (StateSide mid-term elections); bids and offers for the Spoo continue to run at sub-normal size, in turn making for swift intra-day moves. Today marks the final day of Q4 Earnings Season, which for the S&P 500 finds some 59% bettering their Q4 of a year ago.
01 Mar '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are lower, the PMs leading to the downside with both Gold and Silver -0.8%; as noted in The Gold Update, price has not traded sub-1300 during 2018, however 'tis close to so doing here at 1308. Markets' volatility is light-to-moderate, and skittishness is evident at the Market Rhythms page by the shorter lengths appearing under the "Study's Timeframe" column. Fed Chairman Powell goes before the Senate Banking Committee on a day of much incoming Econ Data highlighted by the FOMC's preferred inflation reading of the PCE Price Index, plus Personal Income/Spending, the ISM(Mfg) Index, Construction Spending, and vehicle sales.
28 Feb '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The positive cross of the 8-hr. MACD on Gold was very short-lived, the study whipping back to the negative side in turn nixing our MRT for a 14.7-point loss (-$1,470/cac), barring tighter cash management. That noted, Gold has been firm, along with Silver, so far this session, which for the BEGOS Markets otherwise is mixed and volatility mostly light relative to recent days/weeks per the Market Ranges page's EDTRs. The Euro has traded down to its lowest level since 18 Jan. Cac vol for the Bond is moving from Mar into Jun; at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have been working their way up off the floor. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include the 2nd look at Q4 GDP, plus the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales.
27 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold's 8-hr. MACD confirmed its positive cross yesterday to give us an MRT (from the 16:00 period's opening level at 1333.8) of 1343.8. Most of the BEGOS Markets are lower ahead of new Fed Chairman Powell delivering his first testimony to the House Financial Services panel; only the EuroCurrencies are mildly up, and volatility is narrow across the board, save for Copper which has traced 62% of its EDTR. At Market Values, the five primary BEGOS Markets are in large part reeled in from their recent extremes, albeit the Euro still appears somewhat high. Durable Orders and Consumer Confidence work into the Econ Baro today. The cac volume for Silver is moving from Mar into May.
26 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Dollar must be lower as (save for a wee decline in Oil) all the BEGOS Markets are higher, Gold notably having scampered back up into the 1240s. Gold's 8-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, which if confirmed come 08:00 PT would give us an MRT of 10 points higher ($1,000/cac) from that period's opening price. Copper's cac volume is moving from the Mar cac into that for May. 'Tis a busy week for incoming Econ Data beginning today with New Home Sales, and the final week of Q4 Earnings Season: as yet again reiterated in The Gold Update, whilst earnings of S&P companies are comparably better, they remain nowhere supportive of the Index's current level. Thus our expectations remain firm for a 25% S&P move down to 2154, our thinking still being by the StateSide elections in Nov.
23 Feb '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Bond looks to be getting up on its feet, at session highs as we speak, and notably the "Baby Blues" too in real-time have curled a tad higher, albeit at -90% they've yet to prove themselves (by reaching up above the -80% level); nonetheless, the Bond is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mildly mixed and volatility mostly light. The Econ Baro is set for the week, but next week is heavy-set with incoming data. Q4 Earnings Season still has a week to roll: overall, 67% of reports have bettered their bottom lines of Q4 a year ago, but specific to the S&P 500, only 60% have improved.
22 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The 12-hr. Parabolics provisional Long signal for the Bond briefly confirmed yesterday before whipping back to Short at 00:00 PT with but a bare gain. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and volatility is running light-to-moderate. Notably for the Spoo, daily volume is up a bit from normal levels, however bids and offers remain at best 50% of their typical size; thus we continue to see material price swings: at Market Ranges, the Spoo's present EDTR of 65 points is still well above the median of around 15 points per day. Leading (lagging) Indicators for January come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are provisionally flipped to Long: should confirm come at 12:00 PT, we'd have an MRT for a full point higher ($1,000/cac) from the opening price at that time; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page have been crawling across the floor for some three weeks, price itself having on balance been in decline since 18 Dec. With the Dollar firming for the 4th straight session, the BEGOS Markets, save for a small gain in the Bond, are all flat to mildly lower, and volatility is light. Oil at 61.50 is its most commonly traded price in the past 2 weeks per the Market Profile. Existing Home Sales work into the Econ Baro today, plus the minutes of the Fed's 30-31 Jan meeting get released.
20 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The two-day day session now finds all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil, having come off, the Dollar continuing to firm since its Thu close. With respect to the S&P, the current Gold Update put forth "Let the selling resume", the Index having completed on Fri the Golden Ratio retracement as measured per our 16 Feb comment and the Spoo at present clearly pointing to a lower opening for stocks; as well, the Spoo finished Friday 75 points above its Market Magnet. Session volatility is moderate-to robust, the Swiss Franc notably having traced 109% of its EDTR. 'Tis a very muted week for incoming Econ Data: just 3 items are schedule to hit the Econ Baro; still, a robust dose of Q4 earnings are due.
19 Feb '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue Globex session is quite muted; Monday StateSide holidays can nonetheless offer material moves in the BEGOS Markets as the balance of the world continues on, albeit this time 'round there are Asian bourses shut for the Lunar New Year; still, with EDTRs of late running well above normal, 'tis almost eerily quiet out there. The PMs remain firm and Oil is +1.1%; otherwise volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update points to price readying to hurdle Base Camp 1377 for the run to 1400; also cited are the somewhat stagflationary metrics that worked into the Econ Baro last week. As to Q4 Earnings Season, with 365 of the S&P 500 having reported, 224 (61%) have bettered their like quarter of a year ago, an improvement over what we've see saw in recent quarters; however, our p/e measures for the Index remain exorbitantly high (per our Valuations & Rankings page).
16 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 06 Feb low (2629) to the 29 Jan high (2878) is 2745: the session's high thus far is 2746; (intra-day for the S&P 'tis 2742 and on a closing basis 2761). Amongst the BEGOS Markets correlations, the Spoo and Euro have been positively-correlated on a day-to-day basis such that we've not seen since 2011; the Dollar (88.720) is testing the resistance peaks (for support) from 2009 and 2011. Gold is losing session firmness after having traded 1364, (the year's high thus far being 1365). Volatility is again light-to-moderate with housing, Ex/Im pricing and UofM sentiment data in the balance for the Econ Baro.
15 Feb '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo is working higher, albeit (save for the Bond), the recent spate of all the other BEGOS Markets moving together appears in abate, the 3 metals and Oil in decline. Of note, were the Spoo to reach (per its page) its guesstimated "high if an up day" of 2748, 'toward be right in the neighbourhood of a .618 Gold Ratio retracement from the 2529 low on 06 Feb back up to the all-time high of 2878.50 on 29 Jan. Gold has come within several points (1359) of its high for this year (1365) such that yet again Base Camp 1377 seems ripe for the taking within the overall current weekly parabolic Long trend. Volatility (again giving due to the increased EDTRs) is running light-to-moderate. A bevy of data hits the Econ Baro today, including the PPI, NY Empire State Index, Philly Fed Index, IndProd/CapUtil and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: No sooner did we write yesterday that 'tis rare for a 1-hr. study to make the Market Rhythms page, (the Spoo 1-hr. study not surviving making the list a second day), that we've another: the 1-hr. Price Oscillator study on Oil: in the last 7 tests, it has had price follow-though of at least $1,400/cac (1.40 points) 5 times; again, to be judiciously managed. Ahead of an "all eyes on the Core CPI" number (05:30 PT), BEGOS Markets volatility is light, considering the increased EDTRs on the Market Ranges page: in fact, that for the Spoo (68 points) has kinked down by better than a full point for the first time since 28 Dec. Also due today for the Econ Baro are Retail Sales and Business Inventories.
13 Feb '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: It is rare for a 1-hr. study to make the Market Rhythms page, but the Spoo's 1-hr. MACD has presently the qualifications, given how volatile the S&P has been: 7 of the past 10 crossings have exceeded the requisite hurdle of $1,000/cac (20 points) in follow-through, indeed those 7 each reaching at least $1,600 (32 points) in follow-through: mind that study (as all studies) judiciously, for as always, cash management is critical. Given the increase in the BEGOS Markets EDTRs, volatility thus far this session is comparatively light-to-moderate, the Spoo actually with the narrowest EDTR tracing of just 33%. Only the Spoo and Oil are lower. The week's heavy load of EconData starts to kick in tomorrow.
12 Feb '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are starting the week higher. The Gold Update looks for only limited price downside, (ideally avoiding the 1200s), but for the S&P to broadly work lower culminating in a 25% correction, (which on a closing basis from the all-time high of 2872 on 26 Jan would be down to 2154, the time frame being perhaps out as far as the StateSide mid-term Nov elections); there simply is little if any material structural support down along that range; at 2154, we've estimated a p/e for the S&P (adjusted too for the less burdensome corporate income tax rate) of around 16x on a median non-cap-weighted basis vs. today's 39x. Mind the rising EDTRs -- especially for the Spoo -- at the Market Ranges page.
09 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday all the BEGOS Markets are lower, the Spoo having abandoned earlier gains to this point. At 2595, the Spoo is better than 100 points below its Market Magnet of 2734, and in real-time nearly 200 points below is smooth valuation line per our Market Values page. Volatility is mostly moderate across the components. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are (and indeed have been) falling for the entire bunch, albeit the Euro and Swiss Franc still are sporting 21-day linreg uptrends; Gold's is flat and those for the other 5 markets are down. Q4 Earnings Season is through the 1/2-way mark with 69% doing better than year ago; specific to the S&P 500, with 313 companies having reported, 65% are ahead of a year ago; still the p/e measure(s) per our "Valuation & Rankings " page remain excessively high, even given the Index's recent pullback. Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
08 Feb '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, (so obviously the Dollar must be higher). Spoo market depth continues to be comparably thin, albeit volume has backed off from what we saw Mon/Tue: still, the EDTR is 59 points, some 3-to-4 times normal. Market Profile support for the Spoo lies in the 2643-2636 zone; 2690 is resistance. Whilst the EDTRs are up for every component, as displayed on the Market Ranges page, none have multiplied nearly as much as has that for the Spoo. Mind Gold as it is testing the Oct peak of 1308, after which there is the Nov peak at 1299: so far this year, having yet again neared Base Camp 1377 has proved resistive for the yellow metal; the weekly parabolic Long trend nonetheless remains in place, (1257 being this week's flip level).
07 Feb '18, 04:41 Pacific Time: Whilst the Spoo has been back on the skids, now at 2680 'tis some 20 points off the session's low; still bids and offers remain thin -- notably this week just (by our glancing) some 5%-10% of normal per price point -- with cac volume double that of normal: thus these swings reminiscent of 2008's Black Swan unwinding. Should such conditions continue, a 25% correction from 26 January may well will out. Keep an eye on the Spoo's page ("S&P 500" under "BEGOS Markets") especially on the Magnets Chart: as price and magnet return to equilibrium we expect the selling to continue. A 10% correction for the S&P (closing basis) arrives at 2586: Mon's close has been the nearest at 2649, (and intra-day 2593). Given the rising EDTRs for all of the BEGOS Markets, we see this session's volatility thus far as moderate across all the components.
06 Feb '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's change needs to be +30 points for a "break even" S&P opening, (they're presently -32, thus a +62 swing is required by the opening bell). Yesterday at 10:00 PT, trading in the Spoo turned reminiscent of that during late 2008: vast points changes in seconds with bid and offer sizes just 10% of normal; thin and dangerous trading conditions, which have not really spilled into the other BEGOS Markets components. For example this session, only the Bond and Spoo have traded in excess of the EDTRs. Mind the Market Ranges page, and especially the Spoo page. The Trade Deficit works into the Econ Baro today.
05 Feb '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver is the session's big winner to this point, +1.6%: The Gold Update cites the Gold/Silver ratio having topped 80x for just the fourth time since 2001, and that historically, the white metal has then found itself as much as 20%-40% higher within six months. Another down opening appears in store for the S&P, for which the Spoo has finally returned to below its smooth valuation line (Market Values) and is now extremely "low" by its Market Magnet. Still, even in the face of an improved Q4 Earnings Season, bottom lines themselves remain terrifically low vis-à-vis the level of the S&P, which would remain "expensive" even down at 2150 should a 25% correction be underway, the cut in the corporate tax rate notwithstanding. ISM(Svc) due today for the Econ Baro.
02 Feb '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo has swiftly reached its 2800.75 MRT; the "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page have only begun to crack, such that should this structural in the low 2800s let go, a run down into the 2750s wouldn't be untoward; in real-time, price is now just 21 points above its smooth valuation line, coming off the "high" extremes seen for some time at Market Values. The Bond is trying to firm after falling four of the past 5 sessions: price has been in an overall downtrend since mid-Dec with rates increasing on the longer-end of the yield curve. All 8 BEGOS Market are in the red and volatility is light-to-moderate, save for that of the Spoo, which has traded 126% of its EDTR. In the balance for the Econ Baro come data on payrolls and Factory Orders.
01 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The daily MACD on the Spoo is confirmed as negative: this study because of a too-aggressive Target has not been qualifying for the Market Rhythms page, however follow-through by at least 28 points ($1,400/cac) has been achieved in 7 of the last crossings; note: the 3 failures to reach that far all were to the Shortside; still, we view the S&P has having entered a period (finally) of being vulnerable to significant downside. Thus 28 points below this session's opening at 2828.75 yields an MRT of 2800.75. (Much more broadly, as is noted in The Gold Update, a 25% correction in the S&P would still find it "expensive"; there is structural support in the S&P 2200-2000 area to culminate such a correction). Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. On the Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" are beginning to breakdown for the Spoo, Gold and Oil. Q4 Productivity, plus ISM(Mfg), Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales all come due for the Econ Baro.
31 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo is getting a bounce this session, but thus far 'tis not enough to thwart a provisional crossing to negative of the daily MACD, which if confirmed come session's end can establish a downside Market Rhythm Target, likely beyond which can see a run down to some structural support 'round the bottom of the 2800s. All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black, the Dollar thus obviously lower; volatility again is moderate. Today's metrics for the Econ Baro include the ADP jobs reading, Q4's ECI, the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales. Today also marks Yellen's final overseeing of an FOMC policy statement, to be released at 11:00 PT with no scheduled press conference.
30 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Back-to-back down openings for the StateSide stock market? Odd indeed. The Spoo's daily MACD is nearing a negative crossover: barring it not getting confirmed as the week unfolds, we'll likely have an MRT at least 20 points lower upon confirmation; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page have yet to crack. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate: Oil is the weakest component, -1.0%, yet its Baby Blues too have yet to break down. At Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil are still at fairly high extremes. Gold's cac volume is rolling from Feb into Apr, adding some 5 points in contango. A higher Consumer Confidence number is expected for the Econ Baro.
29 Jan '18, 04:12 Pacific Time: A down opening for the StateSide stock market? How odd. The Spoo had worked its way higher from the 15:00 PT Sunday opening, but has spent the last 8 hours in the red. From the Spoo's page, the "low if a down day" guesstimate is 2856.25, however should the selling get accelerative, there are Market Profile supports at 2849 and notably so at 2840. The Gold Update suggests that Friday's straight up S&P 500 finale was a blow-off top. Save for a mild gain in Copper, all 7 of the other BEGOS Markets are lower and volatility is mostly moderate. Oil and the Bond are the weakest of the bunch, both -0.5%, and the latter has traced 120% of its EDTR. Mind the high "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page as various components look poised to crack. Personal Income/Spending kick off a busy incoming data week for the Econ Baro, along with a no-go FOMC decision come Wednesday.
26 Jan '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The first read of Q4 GDP arrives today: by the Econ Baro, the first 2/3rds of actual Q4 data received (Nov to the Baro's 20 Dec peak) was waxing, the latter 1/3 since then waning.; Durables for Dec come due as well. Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are rising. At the Market Values page, the Bond is as low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line as has been the case in better than a year, whilst both Oil and the Spoo are at extreme high deviations; however, the readings at the Market Magnets page for those three components page are not as stressed as they've been. Most volatile this session are the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss and the Euro itself having exceeded 100% of their respective EDTRs.
25 Jan '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold has surpassed last year's high of 1362, reaching up thus far in this session to 1365: that brings into play the 2016 high at Base Camp 1377, the centerpiece of significant resistance these past four years after its having been support following Gold's fall from the All-Time High of 1923 (06 September 2011). The Euro has traded just short of the 1.25 level ahead of the ECB policy announcement and Mario Draghi's comments. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. New Home Sales and Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
24 Jan '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are higher, Gold notably having traded up through the 1350 level: its young weekly parabolic Long trend seems to have price headed toward testing last year's high of 1362, and in turn taking a shot of 2016's high at Base Camp 1377; as noted in The Gold Update's scoreboard, our "conservative" high call for the yellow metal this year is 1434. The Spoo higher yet again, but appears very much as was the case yesterday to be lacking further material upside push. Volatility is moderate, and the Existing Home Sales report is expected to show slowing.
23 Jan '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: The MRT for Copper of 3.1600 was reached, and then some, price reaching down in the 3.13s, presently -2.0% and sporting an EDTR tracing of 159%, the "Baby Blues" also in full plummet. The BEGOS Markets otherwise are mildly lower, save for modest gains in the Bond and Gold. Of the 14 completed trading days year-to-date, the S&P has only had 3 that were net losers: today may be the 4th, the Spoo having given back most of its rising finale from yesterday's last hour of stock market trading; in real-time, the Spoo is 88 points above its smooth valuation line and 50 points above its Market Magnet, both readings being "extreme" to the upside.
22 Jan '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's daily Moneyflow remains below the 50 level which is keeping the MRT of 3.1600 in play: the red metal's EDTR is 0.0505, so the distance from the present 3.2095 level to the MRT is within range should a normal down day or two ensue. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are starting the week higher: only Oil and the Spoo are off a bit, and volatility is moderate. Q4 Earnings Season is still quite young, but clearly on the improve this time around: specific to the S&P 500, 35 companies have reported, of which 29 (83%) have bettered their bottom lines; for Q3 only 41% had risen. That noted, no matter how much we "dumb it down" at "The S&P 500: --Valuation & Rankings" page, the p/e ratio for the Index remains unsupportably high such that even a correction of 25% -- which we anticipate is sitting out there -- shall still leave stocks very expense by portfolio valuation methods.
19 Jan '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Further firming in the EuroCurrencies has turned the Swiss Franc's 4-hr. MACD back to positive thus nixing our MRT of 1.0302; still, Copper's MRT of 3.1600 remains alive as the daily Moneyflow is still sub-50. Oil's "Baby Blues" in real-time are beginning to roll over: we see structural support in the 62.20 area. Since Wednesday, the Spoo keeps running out of puff up in the 2805-2809 range: 'tis again the case to this point in this session; the Spoo's Baby Blues remain high in the sky, but by the Market Values and Market Magnets pages, price continues to appear at high extremes. UofM's sentiment is expected to show enthusiasm continuing to build.
18 Jan '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Firmness returns to the EuroCurrencies: the 4-hr. MACD on the Swiss Franc remains negative, but that stance is waning such that the MRT of 1.0302 looks to be in jeopardy; the currency is also the most volatile of this session's BEGOS Markets, having traced 113% of its EDTR. Copper's daily Moneyflow is still sub-50, keeping the MRT of 3.1600 in play. From the Market Trends page, Gold's "Baby Blues" in real-time have dropped a notch, albeit still are strong at +92%; those for Oil look vulnerable to soon cracking. Some weakness is expected in the housing data and Philly Fed Index which would further lend to the Econ Baro's recent decline.
17 Jan '18, 04:38 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are coming a bit off their recent boil; of note, the Swiss Franc's 4-hour MACD confirmed turning negative: generally, shorter time frames don't make the Market Rhythms page, but this one has for an MRT (as measured from the confirmed 00:00 PT crossing at 1.0430) of 1.0302. Copper's MRT of 3.1600 remains in place, the daily Moneyflow working lower still: at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) are down to the +20% level and look to go sub-0% by week's end (barring a strong rally) which would also mean the 21-day linreg trend will have turned negative. Trade in the PMs is mixed and the is Spoo firmer following yesterday's fallout: but the swift selling we saw suggests the S&P has reached a point of fragility.
16 Jan '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue GLOBEX session continues with most of the BEGOS components exceeding 100% of their EDTRs given it all being counted as a single trading day; yet no one component is presently changed by 1% either way. Copper is lower, the daily Moneyflow falling further sub-50, the 3.1600 MRT thus still targeted. The PMs are taking a breather, yet the "Baby Blues" remain +80% for both Gold and Silver. As anticipated, Spoo has now traded above 2800: at the Market Values page, the Spoo is nearing 100 points above its smooth valuation line, an extreme high reading; at Market Magnets, the Spoo shows having strayed by more than 50 points to the upside. Expectations are for the NY Empire Index to have improved.
15 Jan '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: StateSide bourses are shut for MLK Day; the BEGOS Markets are in a Sun-Tue trading session with a halt later today from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT. Strength in the Euro Currencies now finds the Swiss Franc above 1.04 and the Euro itself topping 1.23; the Spoo is in record-high territory, the 2800 handle nearly having traded. Copper is +1.5%, but its daily Moneyflow confirmed going sub-50 such as to give us an MRT (as measured from the session's open at 3.2240) of 3.1600; as well, the red metal's "Baby Blues" continue their steady descent. The PMs are higher: The Gold Update cites the weekly parabolic trend having flipped to Long, with Base Camp 1377 in turn a reasonable upside goal. Note too the recent keeling over of the Econ Baro.
12 Jan '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Quickly nixed is the MRT we'd set just yesterday for the Euro as weak StateSide inflation data and positive German political coalition has sent the currency to its highest level since Dec 2104 at 1.21830. Dollar weakness is also working to the benefit of the Swiss Franc, Silver and Gold, the latter making a new high in the young year at 1333.8. Copper, which has been in mild decline for some 2 weeks, the "Baby Blues" also furthering their fall, is just now seeing its daily Moneyflow cross sub-50%: if confirmed by day's end 'twould suggest an MRT of an additional 0.0640 ($1,600/cac) lower. Oil's daily chart suggests a "blow off" high yesterday at 64.77. CPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories all work into the Econ Baro today.
11 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Euro confirmed its daily Parabolics flipping to short (see 09 Jan), albeit price has since bounced a bit from yesterday's designated opening at 1.19850; still the MRT is set for 1.11810. As well, Silver's daily Parabolics also have flipped to Short, however given the strength of the PMs, we shan't chase the "would be" MRT there of 16.385. That said, the "Baby Blues" for both the Euro and Silver, as well as those for the Swiss Franc, Gold (barely) and for a week now Copper are all in decline, all having reached well above their respective +80% levels as displayed on the Market Trends page. The Spoo's 9-session win streak was snapped yesterday, but price pre-PPI is presently suggestive of a +5 point opening for the S&P.
10 Jan '18, 04:00 Pacific Time: The Bond is reaching down to levels not seen since last March: 'tis said that "officials reviewing China’s foreign-exchange holdings" have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries. This in turn is also dragging down the Spoo, the S&P having finished higher for the last 9 trading days. Dollar weakness is pushing the PMs above last week's closing levels. Per the Spoo's page, the "high if a down day" of 2753.25 is thus far precisely that (in a carryover candle from the prior session), the "low if a down day" set at 2736.50; given a low already of 2737.25, the Market Profile support price at 2734 looks likely, the next in line being 2726.00.
09 Jan '18, 04:02 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolics on both the Euro and Swiss Franc are provisionally flipping to Short: at the Market Rhythms page, the Swiss Franc is not listed as its MRT falls short of the requisite $1,000/cac criteria, however 8 of its last 10 flips have then traveled at least an additional $900/cac; for the Euro, the additional travel is listed as $1,300/cac, that distance having been achieved following 7 of the past 10 flips. The BEGOS Markets are more lively that we saw 'round this time yesterday: the Yen is not (as yet) officially a component, but it shot up like a rocket last evening upon the BOJ's announcing a trimming in its long bond purchases, swiftly sending the currency well up beyond our "high if an up day" guesstimate of .89040 to as much as .89190 before giving back that quintessential 62% Golden Ratio amount and since return higher. Joining the EuroCurrencies on the weak side are the PMs.
08 Jan '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Copper's "Baby Blues" have notched lower for the 2nd straight session: they've room to further fall given they're still +80% (at 84%); the center area of Copper's prior down trend that ran from mid-Oct into early Dec is 'round the 3.10 handle; or from that Dec low to the late Dec high, a Golden Ratio retracement would come in 'round the 3.06 handle; so from this 3.22 handle, 'twould be a meaty move should a Short ride get down to those areas. The Euro's daily Parabolics look to get tripped to the Short side in the next session or two; the Euro is the most rangy component of the BEGOS Markets, in what is otherwise a mixed session of medium volatility. The Gold Update upgrades its scoreboard and substantiates an up year for the PMs.
05 Jan '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: A bevy of data hits the Econ Baro today: Payrolls, Trade Deficit, Factory Orders and ISM(Svc). In advance of it all, 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are down: only the Spoo is higher in taking a run at the R1 daily pivot at 2733. As noted, our watch for Copper's "Baby Blues" finally sees them down in real-time, price itself having worked lower since the 28 Dec high of 3.322: the red metal had recorded 14 consecutive up trading days from 8 through 28 Dec. No new MRT for the present: the Market Rhythms page itself lists but 6 Rhythms that are meeting our signaling requirements, suggestive that price follow-through has been well below average of late. That doesn't mean markets haven't been trending: the Euro, Gold, Silver Copper, Oil and Spoo all have been in solid up trends - but so much so that technical study crossovers have been minimal. (Stay tuned).
04 Jan '18, 04:03 Pacific Time: Yes, the MRT of 2662.00 for the Spoo is all but nixed: its daily MACD histogram remains barely negative even with the Spoo up further this morning, but a close north of 2015 likely shall cross the study to positive; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are firming rather than following-through to lower levels: they're spot on +80% in real-time. We're watching Copper's Baby Blues: they continue to climb in real-time, however price ran out of upside puff at year-end; also the red metal's daily Moneyflow study looks like it shan't remain firm (77 on a scale of 0-100) much longer. ADP jobs data today precedes the gov't data tomorrow.
03 Jan '18, 04:00 Pacific Time: Despite the up-push of the Spoo to this point of the new year, the new highs remain pip-by-pip minimal: 2698.00 on both 18 & 19 Dec; 2698.25 on 29 Dec; and now 2698.50 so far this session; the lack of material upside follow-through is what tripped the daily MACD to negative on 27 Dec; our MRT thus remains 2662.00; the Spoo's Market Value is some 50 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; also the Spoo these last two weeks has been in negative correlation with the Bond, which is firmer this morning. ISM(Mfg), Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales arrive today for the Econ Baro. Probably nothing surprising from the FOMC Minutes as Chair Yellen gave her final press conference thereto back on 13 Dec.
02 Jan '18, 04:12 Pacific Time: New Year Greetings. We've decided to change this section up a bit: a little less doctrinaire, regurgitative and form-fitting; perhaps more useful and informative. Less is oft more, more is sometimes required. Specific quote data is only what 'tis when we write and readers likely have it all at the ready in their own form. The unique content of this site is what gives it value and one can poke to one's desire around the various pages. Drawing from those and other sources, we look to cite that which is of timely interest to us, be it Market Rhythm Targets (MRT), the Econ Baro, Earnings truth, the Market Trends' "Baby Blues", Profiles, Magnets, Values, et alia. In starting 2018, The Gold Update describes a conservative high for this year of 1434, or aggressively 1526. The Spoo's daily MACD remains negative toward an MRT of 2662.00 and in real-time the Baby Blues have slipped below 80%. Have a great year and Cheers!
29 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2695.00, +0.4%) looks like it may make a run to touch 2700 before the year is out, (the all-time high being 2698); that noted, the daily MACD continues it negative course toward keeping viable the 2662.00 Market Rhythm Target, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) whilst still +80%, have nudged lower still for the 7th straight session; the Spoo has closed lower on the last trading day for the past 4 years, but never for a 5th millennium-to-date. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate. A Safe and Happy New Year to our valued readers!
28 Dec '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (16.790, +0.2%) reached the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780; we've a new Target for the Spoo (2688.25, +0.1%) of 2662.00 per the MACD's negative crossing; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for some 3 weeks remain +80%, but are showing mild decline; 2687 is Market Profile support. Save for the Bond (152^16, -0.3%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper (3.3030, +0.7%); the rangiest component is the Swiss (1.0253, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 133%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Chi PMI due @ 06:45 PT.
27 Dec '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2689.25, +0.1%) daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 22 points ($1,100/cac) lower from the next session's opening level; Silver's (16.655, +0.3%) daily Parabolics still are Long, toward the 16.780 Target; the white metal is the BEGOS Markets' upside leader, whilst weakest is Oil (59.49, -0.5%); volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Values, Gold's (1289.3, +0.1%) good run these last 2 weeks only has it just now returning up to its valuation line. Consumer Confidence/Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Dec '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond (150^30, -0.1%) and EuroCurrencies are lower in starting the week, the weakest component being the Swiss (1.0168, -0.3%); the balance of the bunch are higher, led by Copper (3.2810, +1.1%), the red metal also with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 130%. Silver's (16.495, +0.3%) daily Parabolics remain Long toward the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780; The Gold Update suggests white metal has room to run up into the 16.80-17.20 area which appears fairly price congestive per the daily bars from Oct-Nov as noted per Silver's "Baby Blues" graphic.
22 Dec '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Separatist victory in Catalonia has effectively shoved the Euro (1.19335, -0.2%) into the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing position at 75%; the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets have very limited tracings such that volatility is light. Oil (58.05, -0.3%) is weakest, whilst firmest is Silver (16.255, +0.5%), the latter's daily Parabolics still Long, keeping the 16.780 Market Rhythm Target in play. The Spoo's (2690.00, +0.1%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain pasted on the ceiling. Personal Inc/Spd/PCE & Durables @ 05:30 PT; New Homes @ 07:00 PT. Merry Christmas!
21 Dec '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets spectrum with just the Swiss (1.0193, -0.2%) reaching an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 50%; the Swiss is the weakest component whilst the Spoo (2687.00, +0.2%) is the firmest; at Market Values the Spoo is some 75 points "high", although price's distance above its Market Magnet has come off the recent extreme reading. Silver's (16.220, -0.1%) daily Parabolics remain Long, keeping intact the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780. Finalized Q3 GDP and Philly Fed Index due at 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators due at 07:00 PT.
20 Dec '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1745, +0.9%) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader, price approaching a 1-month high; the red metal is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 78%; otherwise, volatility is light, the narrowest component being Oil (57.76) with just a 21% tracing;weakest is the Swiss (1.0198, -0.3%). The daily Parabolics for Silver (16.260, +0.5%) remain Long in support of the 16.780 Market Rhythm Target. Save for the Spoo (2692.75, +0.3%), the 21-day linreg trends for the 7 other components are down, (even Copper's). Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
19 Dec '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.225, +0.2%) daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Long (from this session's open of 16.180) giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 16.780. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led to the downside by Copper (3.1280, -0.5%) and to the upside by Oil (57.53) and the Euro (1.18970) both +0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Spoo's (2696.50, "unch") Market Profile shows support at 2695, but then quite an air pocket down to the next dominant supporters at 2671 and 2667; its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are on the ceiling. Housing/Permits/Q3 Current Account: 05:30 PT.
18 Dec '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: We're nixing the Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (cur 1.18780, +0.4%, tar 1.17845), the daily Parabolics are flipping to Long, as they are for Silver (16.140, +0.2%). Per our Market Rhythms page, confirmation of Silver's flip would target a level 0.600 points higher ($3,000/cac) as measured from the opening price of the ensuing session. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly light, save for the EuroCurrencies, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings led by the Euro at 73% and then the Swiss (1.0208. +0.3%) at 69%. NAHB Housing comes due @ 07:00 PT.
15 Dec '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: With the EuroCurrencies rolling into Mar, we adjust our Market Rhythm Target for the Mar Euro (1.18875, +0.2%) from 1.17045 (Dec) to 1.17845 (Mar), the daily Parabolics still Short; the Euro is also the rangiest BEGOS Market with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 71%. 7 of the 8 components are higher, save for the Bond (154^01, "unch"): leading is Silver (16.015, +0.6%) for which today's hurdle to flip its daily Parabolics to Long is 16.150. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is rolling into Feb (57.36, +0.3%). NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
14 Dec '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.18270, "unch"), if muted for the moment, is back above 1.18: however, 'twould have to cross into the 1.19s (this session) to flip the daily Parabolics to Long, so the 1.17045 Market Rhythm Target is still in place. Were Silver (16.065. -0.2%) today breach 16.180, its daily Parabolics would flip to Long. The BEGOS Markets are mildly "unch"-to-lower, save for Copper (3.0625, +0.2%) which is sporting an EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracing of 112%. Volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi/Retail Sales/Ex-Im Pricing: 05:30 PT; BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
13 Dec '17, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (3.0475, +0.8%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are little changed-to-mildly lower; volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper with an 83% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Silver (15.720,-0.2%) has but a 26% tracing. The Euro's (1.17415, "unch") daily Parabolics are still Short for the Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing sub-0% as the 21-day linreg trend goes negative; only the Spoo's (2666.50, -0.1%) and Oil's (57.44, "unch") are positive. CPI @ 05:30 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT; Yellen @ 11:30 PT.
12 Dec '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light for the BEGOS Markets, with only Oil (58.36, +0.6%) and the Swiss (1.0099, +0.1%) just exceeding 50% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges); Oil is also the firmest of the bunch, whilst the weakest is Copper (3.0060, -0.3%). The daily Parabolics for the Euro (1.17795, +0.1%) remain Short in support of our 1.17045 Market Rhythm Target; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies are still dropping, albeit the Swiss' blue dots in real-time are slowing their decline, (but not so those of the PMs). PPI due at 05:30 PT.
11 Dec '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17970, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering falling, the daily Parabolics Short such as to keep our Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045 in place. The BEGOS Markets are quiet and volatility is light-to-moderate, led by Copper's (2.9835, +0.1%) EDTR (see Market Ranges) 60% tracing; narrowest is the Spoo (2656.00, "unch") with a 22% tracing. The Precious Metals, whilst not losing more ground thus far, appear subject to near-term weakness, The Gold Update depicting December net weakness for Gold (1251.3, +0.1%) across 6 of the past 7 years.
08 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: We've another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, led by Oil (57.41, +1.4%) which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%; volatility is moderate across the board; weakest are the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss (1.0032) and the Euro (1.17420) both -0.3%; the latter's daily Parabolics remain Short toward our Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045; the EuroCurrencies' "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to accelerate their respective descents. Payrolls data due @ 05:30 PT; Wholesale Inventories & UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT.
07 Dec '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17935, -0.1%) daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Short for a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's 1.18085 open) of 1.17045. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed with moderate volatility, the PMs leading to the downside with Silver (15.840, -0.8%) and Gold (1257.1, -0.7%); per The Gold Update, "The Box" of support for Gold is the 1280-1240 range. Copper (2.9740, +0.3%) is firmest, whilst the Swiss (1.0079, -0.3%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 86%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating lower for the EuroCurrencies.
06 Dec '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The Bond's (153^31, -0.2%) 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Long, nixing our 150^20 Market Rhythm Target; Gold's (1270.2, +0.1%) Target of 1267.1 was achieved. The Euro's (1.18185, -0.1%) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short (at 1.18010): confirmation would set a Target of 0.01040 points lower ($1,300/cac) from the ensuing session's open; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping. The BEGOS Markets are mixed; volatility is moderate. Firmest is Copper (2.9740, +0.8%) and weakest is Oil (56.88, -1.0%). ADP: 05:15 PT; Q3 Prod(Rev): 05:30 PT.
05 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Copper (3.0265) which is well off at -2.0%; the red metal's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is 168%. 2nd weakest is Oil (57.18, -0.5%) followed by Silver (16.315, -0.2%). The Bond's (152^31, -0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics are still Short, the Market Rhythm Target being 150^20. Gold's (1278.3, "unch") daily MACD confirmed a negative cross yesterday giving us a Target of 1267.1. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun rolling over from above +80%, suggestive of lower prices. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
04 Dec '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate as the week commences, the Swiss (1.0174, -0.7%) with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 84%. Save for the Spoo (2659.75, +0.6%) and Copper (3.1025, +0.3%), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver (16.325, -0.9%); The Gold Update describes how the Gold/Silver ratio is nearing prior peak highs, but that present technicals portend lower PM prices into year-end. The Bond's (152^22, -0.3%) Market Rhythm Target of 150^20 is still intact, its 12-hr. Parabolics remaining Short. Factory Orders due at 07:00 PT.
01 Dec '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil (57.84, +0.7%) is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Bond (152^21, +0.5%); still the latter's 12-hr. Parabolics are Short in support of our Market Rhythm Target of 150^20; the Bond is also tracing the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 118%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Silver (16.415, -0.3%) is the weakest of the bunch; 2nd lowest is the Spoo (2637.25, -0.2%), which may be pressured come a "sell tax bill passage news", or certainly so should such fail to go through. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spdg: 07:00 PT; Senate tax voting: 08:00 PT.
30 Nov '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: After three days of decided drops, Copper (3.0845, +0.6%) is getting a bid, tied with Oil (57.71, +0.6%) for the BEGOS Markets best gainers; weakest is the Swiss (1.0141, -0.3%) followed by Gold (1284.0) and Silver (16.545), both -0.2%; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90% is the Euro (1.18545, "unch"); volatility is moderate. The Bond's (151^31, "unch") 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed flipping Short to give us a Market Rhythm Target (from an entry of 152^07) of 150^20. Personal Income/Spending/PCE due @ 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due @ 06:45 PT.
29 Nov '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper (3.0790, -0.5%) is yet again the BEGOS Markets downside leader, heading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 75%; the other components are mostly either side of "unch" and volatility is moderate. The Bond's (Dec 154^00, -0.3%) 12-hr. Parabolics are flipping to Short: 7 of the past 10 flips have had follow-through of at least 1^19 points ($1,600/cac); as volume in the Bond is moving from Dec into Mar, we look to set a downside Market Rhythm Target (basis Mar) after session's end. Q3 GDP 1st revision: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
28 Nov '17, 04:14 Pacific Time: Further fallout for Copper (3.1010, -1.7%), the red metal leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 132%; volatility is moderate for the balance of the bunch which are little changed, save for Oil (57.58, -0.5%); at Market Values, Oil is some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line, as extreme a distance as there's been year-over-year per the panel's oscillator; at Market Profiles, Oil shows trading support at 57.80, then failing that, at 56.70. The other 4 primary BEGOS Markets are in sync with their Market Value lines. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
27 Nov '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: An active start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (1.1315, -1.3%) leading to the downside and sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 108%; Gold (1293.9, +0.5%) is the firmest component, whilst most docile is the Bond (154^11, "unch"), its EDTR tracing the narrowest at just 37%. The Spoo's (2601.00, "unch") daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, en route to nixing our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal essentially trading in the 1200 "handle" for the past 5 years. New Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
24 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate, led on the upside by Oil (58.80, +1.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 101%; as noted, we expect Oil's daily MACD to confirm a positive crossing by day's end which formally would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 52.61; still, the same study for the Spoo (2601.25, +0.3%) remains negative for the moment, the Target of 2536.75 likely to soon be nixed. Silver (17.030, -0.6%) is the weakest component, followed by Gold (1288.3) and the Bond (154^03), both -0.3%. Early closures from range from 10:15-10:45 PT.
23 Nov '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The "two-day" GLOBEX session for Friday settlement finds mild strength in the EuroCurrencies and weakness in the metals; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil (57.87) is off the most at -0.3%: its daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive, confirm of which shall nix the 52.61 Market Rhythm Target. That study on the Spoo (2597.25, +0.1%) remains just barely negative, the 2536.75 Target thus not yet nixed. Save for Copper (3.1295, -0.2%), the 7 other components all are sporting 21-day linreg uptrends. A Safe and Happy StateSide Thanksgiving to all!
22 Nov '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets are under threat of getting nixed as the daily MACDs, whilst still negative, for both the Spoo (cur 2599.00, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 57.79, tar 52.61), are bending toward positive crossings; Oil (+1.2%) is leading the BEGOS Markets, which otherwise are mildly higher, save for the Bond (153^22, -0.3%) and Copper (3.1250, -0.1%); volatility is mostly moderate, the Spoo being the least rangy of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 29% following yesterday's firm up move. Durables: 05:30 PT; FOMC Minutes (01 Nov): 11:00 PT.
21 Nov '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for the EuroCurrencies are all higher led by Silver (16.965) and Copper (3.1040), both +0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.17400, -0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 64%. The two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows per their negative daily MACDs: the Spoo (cur 2588.50, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 56.56, tar 52.61); the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall, but those for the Spoo in real-time have hitched higher within their downtrend. Existing Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
20 Nov '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.17945, -0.1%) has recovered in full from a gap-down opening to as low as 1.17395, leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 129%; volatility is otherwise moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for the Bond (154^02, "unch") are all in the red; the weakest components are Silver (17.180) and Oil (56.38), both -0.7%. The latter's Market Rhythm Target of 52.61 is still maintained by the negative daily MACD, as by the same study is the Spoo's Target of 2536.75. Q3 Earnings Season is complete, with only 41% of the S&P y-o-y bettered. LEI: 07:00 PT.
17 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place per the respective daily MACDs both of which are negative for the Spoo (cur 2584.50, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 56.23, tar 52.61), the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) falling further for both components.. Save for the Spoo which is barely off, the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is light-to-moderate; Oil is the upside leader +1.4% as well as the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 93%; Silver (17.085, "unch") is the most docile with just a 26% tracing. Housing Starts/Permits at 05:30 PT.
16 Nov '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Silver (17.025), Copper (3.0590) and the Spoo (2572.50) are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, all +0.3%; still, the Spoo's daily MACD continues its negativity, keeping in place our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target. We've a new Target for Oil (Jan 55.45, -0.1%) of 52.61, the daily MACD crossing to negative; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both the Spoo and Oil are working lower. Volatility is mostly moderate, the Spoo being the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%. Philly Fed & Ex/Im Pricing @ 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
15 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2565.25, -0.5%) and Copper (3.0465, +0.2%), the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Silver (17.135, +0.7%). The Spoo is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%, and except for Oil's (55.12, +0.2%) narrow 25% tracing, volatility otherwise is moderate. The Spoo's daily MACD is increasing its negativity in maintaining a Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now are notably cascading; those for Oil also have finally begun to drop. PPI/Retail Sales/NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
14 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility runs the spectrum from light-to-robust, the Euro (1.17480, +0.5%) both the firmest component and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 104%; least rangy is Oil (56.45, -0.5%) with a 31% EDTR tracing, and weakest are both Silver (16.935) and Copper (3.1045) at -0.7%. The Spoo's (2577.25, -0.1%) Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75 remains in place as the daily MACD is still negative; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" in real-time are below the +80% level for the 1st time since 29 Sep; Oil's remain above +80%. PPI due at 05:30 PT.
13 Nov '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Firmest of the BEGOS Markets to start the week is the is the Bond (156^26, +0.4%) which is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo (2574.50, -0.2%), the daily MACD for which continues as negative toward keeping in play our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) in real-time have slipped to +81%, the lowest reading in a month. Silver's (16.885, +0.1%) Target of 17.405 has been nixed, the white metal dropping in Gold's "micro-crash" as depicted in The Gold Update.
10 Nov '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Both the Bond (152^30) and the Spoo (2573.75) are the downside leaders at -0.4%; the Bond also is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 118%; volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. The Spoo's Market Rhythm Target remains 2536.75 per its negative daily MACD, and in real-time the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinked lower (from +90% to +86%); Silver's (17.020, +0.2%) Target of 17.405 is still valid per its positive 12-hr. MACD. At Market Profiles, the Spoo's high volume apices are at 2584, 2578 & 2573. UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
09 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-robust, the Spoo (2581.00, -0.4%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%; the Spoo's daily MACD continues as negative such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75. Less volatile thus far is Silver (17.105, +0.4%) with a 37% tracing: the white metal's 12-hr. MACD is still positive, the 17.405 Target thus still in place. Oil (59.90, +0.1%) is the narrowest of the bunch with just a 34% tracing: Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have not cracked, (nor in real-time have the Spoo's). Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
08 Nov '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our 2 Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: the Spoo (cur 2584.50, tar 2536.75) by its negative daily MACD, and Silver (cur 17.020, tar 17.405) by its positive 12-hr. MACD; the white metal is also up the most (+0.5%) of the BEGOS Markets; the Spoo (-0.1%) is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 57%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. Oil's (56.93, "unch") "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are levitating, but the price surge is slowing. Of the 402 Q3 S&P 500 earnings in, only 180 (45%) are better than 2016's Q3.
07 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (17.005, -1.3%) is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, albeit, due to the white metal's +2.4% rise yesterday, its 12-hr. MACD remains positive, keeping the 17.405 Market Rhythm Target in place; the Spoo's (cur 2588.75, "unch") Target of 2536.75 may get nixed as its daily MACD is just marginally negative. Only Oil (57.30, +0.1%) is higher, but at Market Trends, we're watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" to crack, as they inch a bit lower for the 2nd straight day. Volatility is moderate: rangiest is the Euro (1.15855, -0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%.
06 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Euro (1.16195, -0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are higher in starting the week, from the Bond (154^00, +0.1%) and Spoo (2582.75, +0.1%) up through Copper (3.1470, +1.0%); the red metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%, and volatility across the bunch is moderate. Our Market Rhythm Target for Silver (cur 16.900, tar 17.405) is nearing failing as the 12-hr. MACD is now only barely positive; the Spoo's daily MACD is still negative, keeping that 2536.75 Target alive. The EconData calendar is fairly light this week.
03 Nov '17, 04:41 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted and volatility is light ahead of a rash of EconData. Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: the Spoo (cur 2879.00, +0.1%, tar 2536.75) per its daily MACD, and Silver (cur 17.105, -0.1%, tar 17.405) per its 12-hr. MACD. We're watching, too, for the Bond's (153^14, "unch") 8-hr. Parabolics to flip to Short should 152^28 (pre-08:00 PT) get penetrated, else 152^30 in today's balance, from which the Target would be 1 full point ($1,000/cac) lower. Payrolls and Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) and Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
02 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver's (17.110, -0.2%) 12-hr. MACD confirmed its positive cross yesterday, giving us a Market Rhythm Target (from the 12:00 PT level at 17.105) of 17.405, ($1,500/cac); the Spoo's (2573.00, "unch") daily MACD remains negative, the 2536.75 Target still in place. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Copper (3.1195, -0.6%), whilst firmest is the Swiss (1.0036, +0.4%); rangiest is the Spoo with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; narrowest is Oil (54.22, -0.1%) with a 46% tracing. Q3 Productivity due at 05:30 PT.
01 Nov '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Nov starts with a bang of volatility as 4 of the BEGOS Markets (the 3 metals plus the Spoo [2583.50, +0.4%]) all have exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), strongest being Copper (3.1680, +1.8%) with a 135% tracing; most docile is the Bond (152^07, -0.1%) with just a 33% tracing. Despite the higher Spoo, its daily MACD is still negative, keeping the 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target alive. We're minding Silver's (17.000, +1.7%) 12-hr. MACD as it has provisionally crossed to positive. ADP @ 5:15 PT; ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending @ 07:00 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT.
31 Oct '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oct's final session finds the BEGOS Markets mostly lower, but only mildly so; only Copper (3.1160, +0.2%) and the Spoo (2571.75, +0.1%) are up a tad; volatility again is basically light with most EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings less than 50%, save for Copper's at 76% and the Swiss' (1.0043, -0.4%) at 69%; the Swiss is also the weakest of the bunch. The Spoo's daily MACD continues to be negative such as to keep our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75. Q3 Employment Cost Index: 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI: 06:45 PT; Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT; FOMC Meeting begins.
30 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2572.25, -0.2%) daily MACD remains negative, keeping our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target in place. The BEGOS Markets begin the week mixed and volatility is mostly light: as noted in The Gold Update, typically not much market movement is seen ahead of an FOMC Statement (Wed), albeit tomorrow is month-end. Copper (3.1095) and the Euro (1.16695) are the firmest of the bunch, both +0.2%; the Euro is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%. Weakest is Silver (16.765, -0.6%). Personal Income/Spending due at 05:30 PT.
27 Oct '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1140, -2.0%) is the session's big loser, as well as again the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 122%; the balance of the bunch are mostly lower and volatility is moderate. The Spoo's (2567.75, +0.2%) daily MACD continues its negative track, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75; this present 2568 level shows as a dominant apex on the Market Profile, whilst at Market Values, price looks some 50 points "high". The first peek at Q3 GDP growth is expected to have slowed from 3.1% in Q2 to 2.4%: 'tis due @ 05:30 PT.
26 Oct '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Spoo (2561.25, +0.1%), has furthered its negativity, the 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target in place; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), whilst above +80%, have slipped to +82%: their lowest reading in the past 21 trading days is +78%. The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed either way and volatility is moderate: the Bond (151^12, 0.2%) is firmest and Copper (3.1735, -0.4%) is weakest as well as the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leader at 60%. EuroCurrencies ought be in play. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
25 Oct '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2565.50, "unch") daily MACD confirmed a negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75, ($1,400/cac from this session's open of 2564.75); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have started a mild downside tilt, albeit even in real-time they remain above the +80% level (+88%). The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper (3.1765, -0.7%), which also leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 107%, and the"Baby Blues" look poised to fall. Volatility otherwise is moderate. Durable Orders: 05:30 PT; New Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
24 Oct '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Similar to this time last Thu (19 Oct), the Spoo's (2565.75, +0.1%) daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain nonetheless pasted to the ceiling almost always above +80% these past 5 weeks in still unusually narrow trading, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 11 points vs. 18 a year ago. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate, save for leading Copper (3.2220, +1.2%), its EDTR tracing at 104%. Weakest is the Bond (151^28, -0.4%); least rangy of the bunch is the Euro (1.18025) with a 39% EDTR tracing.
23 Oct '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: As anticipated per The Gold Update, price (1277.3, -0.4%) penetrated the weekly parabolic level of 1277.6, in turn putting that trend Short: the support key now is not to fall beneath "The Box" (1280-1240); the ascent of Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) is running out of puff right on the 0% axis line, rather than continuing a trip to the +80% level, which has been more of their oscillative nature for at least a year. Volatility is moderate to start the week for the BEGOS Markets which are somewhat lower, save for Copper (3.1720), Oil (52.13) and the Spoo (2576.00) all +0.1%.
20 Oct '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The provisional cross of the Spoo's (2566.50, +0.2%) daily MACD failed to confirm as yesterday's dip buyers brought price all the way back from one of the deeper overnight abysses year-to-date. Today, save also for session-leading Copper (3.1955, +0.7%), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Oil (51.02, -1.1%). Rangiest is the Swiss (1.0221, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 151%, and volatility is fairly robust across the board. With 56 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 earnings, just 46% are better y-o-y. Existing Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
19 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2445.00, -0.6%) hit an air pocket 'round midnight PT, exacerbated by Spain's "suspending Catalonia's austerity"; the Spoo leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 198%, and the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, which if confirmed by session's end would yield a Market Rhythm Target 28 points below the next session's open. Volatility is moderate-to-robust across the balance of the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed: weakest is Oil (51.56, -1.3%) and firmest is the Swiss ( 1.0281, +0.5%). Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
18 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are working lower, save for Oil (52.30) and the Spoo (2560.75), both +0.2%; weakest are the Bond (153^13) and all 3 of the metals, -0.4%; the Bond is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; volatility is mostly moderate; as well at the Market Ranges page, note how narrow the EDTR has become for the Spoo, just 10 points: this date a year ago 'twas 20; 'tis a eerily narrow range we're having for an October, normally one of the year's more volatile months. Housing Starts & Building Permits @ 05:30 PT.
17 Oct '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate. The precious metals lead the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 73% for both Silver (17.120, -0.8%) and Gold (1290.6, -0.5%). Firmest is Oil (Dec 52.40, +0.4%), and weakest following yesterday's rocket-shot is Copper (3.2090, -1.0%). We've gone on ad nausea in The Gold Update over the wildly high valuation of the S&P (2557.64), our "live" p/e at a record 45.2x: early as 'tis, of the 11 firms that have reported Q3 earnings, just 5 are up y-o-y: Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT. NAHB: 07:00 PT.
16 Oct '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for Oil (52.18, +1.5%) has provisionally crossed to positive, which upon confirmation shall formally nix our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (or Dec 47.56); the session's real rocket-shot is Copper (3.2190, +2.7%), far and away the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leader at 255%; the other 6 BEGOS Markets are docile, all presently changed by less than 0.2% either way with light-to-moderate volatility. The Gold Update notes the support areas for the PMs having worked, notable for Gold (1307.8, +0.1%) "The Box" (1280-1240). NY Empire comes due at 05:30 PT.
13 Oct '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil (51.59, +1.7%) is again the BEGOS Markets upside leader as well as the rangiest of the components with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 87%; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are sitting just above the 0% axis, and whilst the daily MACD remains negative, such stance may be short-lived as a positive crossing would nix our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (or Dec 47.56 as volume begins rolling into that cac). Otherwise, the balance of the bunch are mildly mixed and volatility is moderate. CPI/Retail Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment/BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
12 Oct '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the FOMC Minutes having passed and a bevy of week-ending EconData on the table. The largest change at present is by Oil (50.51, -1.0%), for which in real-time the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as anticipated are poised to go sub-0%, along with the daily MACD remaining negative, the Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (Dec 47.56) in place. Firmest are all 3 metals, led by Copper (3.1155, +0.7%), the red metal also being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 70%. Volatility again is moderate. PPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
11 Oct '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil (51.28, +0.7%) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader, yet the daily MACD is still negative, the 47.26 Market Rhythm Target being maintained; however, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) whilst lower have slowed their rate of descent. Similar to yesterday, most of the components are higher, the rangiest again being the Euro (1.18620, +0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 66%; volatility is moderate. The "Baby Blues" continue their curling higher for the PMs as well as for the EuroCurrencies. FOMC Minutes from the 19-20 Sep meeting come due at 11:00 PT.
10 Oct '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (152^03, -0.1%), the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently higher, led by Oil (50.22, +1.3%), the daily MACD for which remains negative, keeping our Market Rhythm Target in place for 47.26; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their descent, looking to cross sub-0% going into tomorrow. The same study for the PMs is curling higher for both Gold (1293.2, +0.5%) and Silver (17.185, +1.1%), the latter also 2nd in the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 80%; volatility is moderate. Still, the Spoo (2546.75, +0.1%) remains firm.
09 Oct '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: Oil (49.37, +0.2%) remains on track for our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 as the daily MACD stays negative; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering their fall. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate; the PMs are the upside leaders with Silver (16.960, +0.7%), the white metal also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 89%, and Gold (1285.4, +0.5%); The Gold Update describes how the yellow metal benefits in major stock market crashes. No EconBaro metrics until Thu. Q3 Earnings Season commences.
06 Oct '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: With the exception of Oil (50.22, -1.0%), the BEGOS Markets are barely changed and volatility is very light ahead of the hurricane-effected jobs report. Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their fall and the daily MACD is increasingly negative, the Market Rhythm Target remaining in place at 47.26. The Spoo (2549.25, "unch") is beyond extremely overbought by our triumvirate of textbook measures, (BollBands, Stochs, RSI): the 43.5x "live" p/e of the S&P (2552.07) is at the high from which the "dot.com" crash occurred. Payroll data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
05 Oct '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil's (50.06, +0.3%) daily MACD furthers its negative cross, maintaining our new Market Rhythm Target of 47.26, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) further falling in favour of lower prices; we're wary of the lower 49s showing some support for price, yet 'twould then appear to have room to accelerate lower sub-48.50. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility at best moderate, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being led by upside leader Copper (2.9790, +0.8%) at 64%; weakest of the bunch is the Swiss (1.0279, -0.3%). Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
04 Oct '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for Oil (50.26, +0.2%) confirmed its negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target (as measured from the session's open of 50.16) of 47.26; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are continuing to descend. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, save for Copper (2.9555) and the Spoo (2531.25), both -0.1%; volatility is again light-to-moderate, with Silver (16.830, +1.1%) the firmest component and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 72%; the Spoo sports the narrowest tracing at just 29%. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
03 Oct '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's (50.48, -0.2%) daily MACD provisionally is crossing to negative: should this confirm, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 2.90 points ($2,900/cac) lower; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for Oil already have crested and are falling. The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (152^09, -0.2%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Copper (2.9575, +0.4%) is the firmest of the bunch: the red metal's 21-day linreg trend and "Baby Blues" as they begin their ascent appear the mirror opposite of those for Oil.
02 Oct '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets kick off Q4 mostly to the downside, save for Copper (2.9575, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2519.50, +0.1%); weakest and rangiest is Oil (50.72, -1.8%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 99%; volatility is moderate across the board. The Spoo's daily MACD has pulled higher away from a negative cross, whilst the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have steadied following a week of mild decline. The Gold Update sites price (1276.6, -0.5%) being in an area of support, but that Octobers often are down months. ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
29 Sep '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The last day of Q3 sees mostly light volatility for the BEGOS Markets which are mildly mixed, Copper (2.9675, -0.4%) being the most changed at present. Again, the S&P (2510.06) looks to close out its narrowest September for which we've data (since 1970); the Spoo's EDTR (see Market Ranges) is a mere 12 points: a year ago today 'twas 23 points; tight as 'tis, only the Spoo (2506.50, +0.1%) along with Oil (51.56, "unch") are in 21-day linreg uptrends, the other 6 of the bunch being in downtrends. Personal Income/Spending & PCE Prices: 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI: 07:00 PT.
28 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2502.75, "unch") "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are slipping for the 4th consecutive day without price actually letting go to the downside; accordingly, the daily MACD has yet to negatively cross; at Market Ranges, the Spoo of late shows as the least rangy of the BEGOS Markets towards recording its narrowest September since at least 1970. This session's volatility for the bunch is moderate-to-robust, the EDTR tracings lead by the Bond (152^12, -0.4%) at 104% and Oil, the firmest component, (52.68, +1.2%) at 96%. Final revision to Q2 GDP: 05:30 PT.
27 Sep '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (153^18, -0.7%) is both the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 147%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise moderate, the firmest component being Copper (2.9465, +0.9%). The daily MACD for the Spoo (2499.50, +0.2%) has yet to make the anticipated negative cross: a glance also at our Market Profiles page shows how comparatively tight is the Spoo's range of late: again, the S&P (2496.84) is on pace for its narrowest September in at least 47 years. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Sep '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Mildly mixed are the BEGOS Markets and volatility is moderate; Gold (1307.0, -0.5%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 89%, followed by Silver (17.075, -0.8%) at 84%. The Spoo's (2495.75, -0.1%) daily MACD appears on track to cross negatively before the week is out: as listed on our Market Rhythms page, confirmation of said cross would give us a Target of 28 points ($1,400/cac) lower; also the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are breaking down after a full week of having crawled across the ceiling. Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
25 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mildly lower, save for Oil (50.94, +0.6%) and the Bond ( 154^21, +0.2%); volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the skirmish of Gold (1297.5, -0.2%) and Silver (16.975, -0.4%) having reaching their "price-bunching" support areas respectively 'round 1300 and 17.00 vs. the declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends); it also cites with a variety of bullet points the prudence for being out of the stock market, including this being the narrowest September trading range for the S&P (2502) in at least 47 years (going as far back as 1970).
22 Sep '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The PMs show firming 'round their "price-bunching" support areas of 1300 for Gold (1298.8, +0.3%) and 17.00 for Silver (17.035, +0.2%); for both metals, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have dropped to their respective 0% axes, discreetly suggestive that the selling these past 2 weeks is but half over: thus 'tis a battle between support holding and momentum driving prices lower. Volatility is mostly moderate across the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with no one component presently changed either way by more than 0.5%, save for Oil (50.43, -0.6%).
21 Sep '17, 04:34 Pacific Time: In a reverse from this time yesterday, post-Fed all 8 BEGOS Markets presently are lower. The PMs have arrived at the "price-bunching" support areas of 1300 for Gold (1295.5, -0.7%) and 17.00 for Silver (16.975, -1.4%); note at Market Trends that the "Baby Blues" for both PMs continue to fall such that we expect some hem 'n haw prior to prices then springing back up from here. Volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver being the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%, and the Bond (153^23, -0.1%) the least so at 28%. Philly Fed comes due at 05:30 PT.
20 Sep '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets presently are higher, ranging from both the Euro (1.20620, +0.1%) and the Spoo (2505.50, +0.1%) to Oil (50.52, +0.5%); volatility is light. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering their descent for both Gold (1318.0, +0.3%) and Silver (17.395, +0.2%); the daily Price Oscillators for these two PMs are nearing crosses to negative; at Market Values, the yellow metal has unwound most of its "high" excess above the smooth valuation line, and appears "low" at Market Magnets. Existing Homes @ 07:00 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT; Yellen @ 11:30 PT.
19 Sep '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed with volatility light-to-moderate. Firmest is Oil (50.76, +0.8%) and weakest is Silver (17.215, -0.2%). The Euro (1.20485, +0.3%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 64%, with Gold (1311.7, +0.1%) the most docile at just a 25% tracing. At Market Trends, the PMs' "Baby Blues" are accelerating their descents with prices approaching the "bunching" areas of 1300 for Gold and 17.00 for Silver. Housing Starts & Building Permits, Ex/Im Pricing and Q2 Current Account data all come due at 05:30 PT.
18 Sep '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: A quiet and mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, volatility running light-to-moderate; only one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.4%, that being Copper (2.9725, +0.8%); weakest are both Oil (49.63, -0.4%) and Gold (1318.5, -0.4%); the latter, (as re-emphasized in The Gold Update), looks to benefit from "price-bunching" support 'round the 1300 level, from which the ascent to Base Camp 1377 can commence; similarly for Silver (17.570, -0.3%), we're looking to the 17.00 area for "price-bunching" support. NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
15 Sep '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: One may consider the BEGOS Markets as relatively docile given today's geo-political issues of another NorK missile fired over Hokkaido and a device detonation on London's Underground at Parsons Green: volatility is moderate, the rangiest of the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being 78% for Gold (1328.0), which is actually -0.4%. Weakest of the bunch is Silver (17.765, -0.5%); firmest are Oil (49.93) and the Swiss (1.0416), both +0.4%. Cac volume on the EuroCurrencies is rolling into Dec. Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtl @ 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
14 Sep '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time finally have cracked for both Gold (1327.5, "unch") and Silver (17.775, -0.3%): when this occurred some 3 weeks back, the PMs nonetheless worked higher still, firm evidence that their getting a bid was continuing; expectant now of at least a bit more downside, we again cite "price-clustering" support 'round 1300 for the yellow metal and 17.00 for the white metal. On balance, the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by yet again by Copper (2.9385, -1.5%); up the most is Oil (49.79, +1.0%). Volatility is light-to-moderate. CPI due @ 05:30 PT.
13 Sep '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9890, -1.7%) is again the both weakest of the BEGOS Markets and the rangiest as well with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 106%; volatility for the other components (most of which are mildly higher) is light-to-moderate; only the Spoo (2490.25, -0.2%) joins Copper in the red. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both Gold (1337.9, +0.1%) and Silver (17.990, +0.1%) remain high despite the PMs' prices pullback this week; at Market Values, Gold remains 50 points high above its valuation line. PPI: 05:30 PT; Treasury Budget due @ 11:00 PT.
12 Sep '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for Oil (48.21, +0.2%) and the Spoo (2490.00, +0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are working lower, led by Copper (3.0345, -1.2%); the red metal is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 85%; volatility for the balance of the bunch also is moderate. Gold (1328.0, -0.3%) has largely given up its NorK nuke test gains, the yellow metal typically returning to pre-geo-political event levels: since Friday's highs, Gold has given back 2.6% and Silver (17.840, -0.1%) similarly 2.8%. We expect the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends") for the PMs are about to break down.
11 Sep '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Those BEGOS Markets which recently had gap openings on NorK news have so again done, but this time in opposite directions, the Spoo (2472.75, +0.5%) getting the bid whilst Gold (1340.8, -0.8%) and the Bond (156^21, -0.5%) bear the gapping brunt along with the EuroCurrencies. Volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update supports the yellow metal having risen of late due to natural disasters, the passing of which also lends to these lower levels; our report also notes "price-bunching" support for Gold 'round 1300, and the same for Silver (17.865, -0.9%) 'round 17.00.
08 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've a view to the Spoo (2455.75, -0.4%) breaking down to at least the 2450 level today, the usual safe havens getting a bid in working into a weekend of uncertainty on the hurricane and geo-political fronts. Copper (3.0965, -1.7%) is the BEGOS Markets big loser, leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings as well at 161%. The Swiss (1.0580, +0.5%) and PMs are presently the winners, Silver (18.270) and Gold (1359.3) both +0.4%; the latter is now within 20 points of "Base Camp 1377" which was 2016's high trade. Wholesale Inventories: 07:00 PT; Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
07 Sep '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0505, +0.4%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%; otherwise, volatility is moderate; the Euro (1.19840, +0.5%) is the firmest component, whilst weakest is Copper (3.1330, -0.8%): this is the 2nd straight session for the red metal's making a "lower high" such that we're watching the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) -- 93% in real-time -- to work lower; similarly we're sensing same to occur for both Gold (1343.8, +0.4%) and Silver (17.965, +0.1%). ECB: 04:45; Draghi, plus Q2(Rev) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: 05:30 PT.
06 Sep '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly-mixed with volatility running light-to-moderate; firmest is Oil (48.91, +0.6%) whilst weakest are both Gold (1343.2) and the Bond (157^01), both -0.1%; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is Copper (3.1380, 0.4%) at 60%, with both the Spoo (2460.00, "unch" ) and Swiss (1.0476 "unch" least rangy with 34% tracings. Gold is in the price thicket formed sub-"Base Camp 1377"; mind the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for them again to crack from the current 82% level. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; Fed Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
05 Sep '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue session continues, BEGOS Markets volatility mostly moderate, save for Copper (3.1695, +1.4%) which has widened its leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to 131%; the red metal is also up the most of the components, all of which are higher except for the Spoo (2467.50, -0.3%). Gold (1334.9, -0.4%) is 10 points off its session high of 1345.5, the NorK news now fairly digested; as noted herein (01 Sep) as well as in The Gold Update, the yellow metal is "high" vis-à-vis our Market Values page, now in real-time by some 61 points. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
04 Sep '17, 04:40 Pacific Time: We've up gap openings in this Sun-Tue session for most of the BEGOS Markets, save notably for the Spoo (2466.25, -0.3%) after the NorK nuclear device test. Firmest is Gold (1340.4, +0.8%), settling Fri at 1329.9, opening Sun at 1339.7, (high 1345.5); also +0.8% is Copper (3.1460), the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 127%; narrowest is Oil (47.35, "unch") with a 29% tracing. As noted in The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) turning back higher rather than falling has been supportive of price's near-term strength.
01 Sep '17, 04:42 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light and the components little changed ahead of a raft of data for the EconBaro and a StateSide get-away for its Labor Day Weekend, (GLOBEX Sun 15:00 PT opening per usual, Mon halt from 10:00-15:00 PT). The Euro's (1.19260) negative MACD cross did not confirm. Gold's (1324.0) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have moved back above +80% and Silver's (17.605) ratchet higher as well; again per Market Values, Gold appears some 50 points "high". Payroll data: 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Aug '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.18605) daily MACD is provisionally crossing negative; confirmation by day's end would give us a Market Rhythm Target of .00880 ($1,100/cac) points lower from the next session opening price. 5 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Copper (3.1155, +0.9%), Oil (46.17, +0.4%) and the Spoo (2463.00, +0.3%); Copper is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%, and volatility across the board is moderate. Personal Inc/Spd & PCE due at 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT; Pending Homes due at 07:00 PT.
30 Aug '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility is light-to-moderate. Cac volume has moved into Dec for both Copper (3.0985) & Silver (17.510), and looks to so do for the Bond (Sep 157^04, Dec 155^28) come tomorrow: that should pull the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) from running across their ceiling as they've been doing for better than a week. At Market Values, Gold (1316.0) is nearly 50 points above its smooth valuation line, that level having seen price peaks from a year ago-to-date, albeit Gold is firmer these days. ADP data: 05:15 PT; Q2 GDP (2nd Est): 05:30 PT.
29 Aug '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Response to the NorK missile firing over Japan sufficiently gapped the BEGOS Markets at the 15:00 PT opening such as to see some full day ranges traced in a matter of minutes. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, presently led by the Swiss (1.0605, +1.2%); weakest is the Spoo (2429.50, -0.6%). The EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of the EuroCurrencies and Bond (157^17) all well exceed 100%. Markets looking as if they'd over-reacted and are now materially retracing their initial legs include the Spoo, the Bond, and Gold (1325.4). Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
28 Aug '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: A quiet start to the week for equities, the Spoo (2441.75) essentially "unch" ahead of 20 incoming EconBaro metrics from Tue through Fri. Strongest is Copper (3.0730, +1.1%) and weakest is Oil (47.46, -0.8%), the latter also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate as well, save for the Bond (156^16, -0.1%) with only a 25% EDTR tracing. The Gold Update again points out the high level of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), how they appear " hanging in air", and now in real-time are turning back up.
25 Aug '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Euro (1.18320, +0.2%) has provisionally whipped back above 50 (scale 0-100), toward nixing our 1.15885 Market Rhythm Target, barring discerned negativity from Jackson Hole. Ahead of doings there, the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher; volatility is light-to-moderate. Firmest are both Silver (17.020, +0.4%) and Copper (3.0490, +0.4%); weakest is the Bond (156^02, "unch"); rangiest is the Euro with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 66%; least is Gold's (1292.4, +0.1%) 28%. Durables: 05:30 PT, Yellen: 07:00 PT; Draghi: 12:00 PT.
24 Aug '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.18060, -0.1%) Market Rhythm Target of 1.15885 may get quickly nixed: the daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0), but just barely, in real-time hooking up to 49.45. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the downside by Silver (16.890, -1.1%), which is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 84%; presently up the most is Copper (2.9980, +0.5%); volatility is light-to-moderate, the least rangy being Oil (48.16, -0.4%), its EDTR tracing just 29%. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) again are marginally lower. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
23 Aug '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: We've a Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (1.80000, +0.2%) of 1.15885, the daily Moneyflow having confirmed as passing sub-50 (scale 100-0). In a reversal from this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, save again for the Spoo (2447.50, -0.3%) and Copper (2.9850, -0.2%): the Spoo's noted Market Magnet gap closed in full given yesterday's robust up session. Firmest are Silver (17.055, +0.4%) and Gold (1294.5, +0.3%): yet, the PMs' "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are again marginally weaker in real-time. Volatility is moderate. New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
22 Aug '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17670, -0.5%) daily Moneyflow provisionally is sub-50 (scale 100-0): if confirmed by day's end, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.01920 ($2,400/cac) lower from the next session's opening level; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are poised to pass sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, save for Copper (2.9980, +0.6%) and the Spoo (2432.00, +0.1%); the price for the latter had been some 30 points below its Market Magnet, (30 points having showing as an extreme deviation in either direction per the 3-month chart). Volatility is moderate.
21 Aug '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Strongest of the BEGOS Markets is Copper (2.9670, +0.1%), the red metal also with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 102%; volatility is otherwise moderate, the narrowest EDTR tracing being 36% for Oil (49.79, -0.2%), which along with the Swiss (1.0362, -0.2%) are the weakest of the bunch. Gold (1293.3, +0.2%) remains firm, albeit we're expecting some pullback this week: The Gold Update refers to the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as "hanging in the air", with support at 1280. Q2 Earnings Season is done: only 48% of S&P 500 cos. improved y-o-y.
18 Aug '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (17.185, +1.0%) is the BEGOS Markets volatility leader with a 121% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the white metal leads the bunch on the upside along with Copper (2.9405, +1.0%); weakest of the group is the Bond (155^28, "unch"). Cac volume for Oil (Sep 47.14) is moving into Oct (47.30). Gold has reached our Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2: up to the lower quartile of the 1300s appears structurally resistive in looking back to last Sep; still a big goal for Gold is to eventually get above "Base Camp 1377" for then a far higher run. UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
17 Aug '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.17120, -0.6%) is rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 110%; otherwise volatility is moderate. Wed's big winner, Copper (2.9445, -0.7%) is presently the big loser; we've only Gold (1290.8, +0.2%) in the black, the yellow metal having made up substantially all of its Mon/Tue loss; Gold's Market Rhythm Target per the positive daily Price Oscillator remains 1301.2, and the once-falling "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are stable in real-time. Philly Fed @ 05:30 PT followed by IndPrd/CapUtl @ 06:15 PT & Leading Indicators @ 07:00 PT.
16 Aug '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9320, +1.8%) is the strong BEGOS Markets leader, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 131%; changes for the balance of the bunch presently are docile either way, with volatility running light-to-moderate. Gold's (1276.4) and Silver's (16.675) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping more noticeably now, both markets near their the mid-point of their 10-day Market Profile supporters respectively at 1274 and 16.50. The Dollar (93.940) over the past 2 days is at its best level in 3 weeks. Housing Starts/Permits @ 05:30 PT; FOMC Minutes (25-26 Jul) @ 11:00 PT.
15 Aug '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Again the PMs are the BEGOS Markets weak links with Silver (16.860, -1.2%) and Gold (1280.0, -0.6%); still, the latter's daily Price Oscillator remains positive, thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 stays in place; versus that, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are just barely starting to drop; those for the session's present leading Spoo (2470.00, +0.2%) have moved further sub-0%. Volatility is moderate, led by Gold's 87% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and NY Empire @ 05:30 PT; BusInvs and NAHB Housing @ 07:00 PT.
14 Aug '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are reversing a portion of their directional moves of last week, all of them presently lower, save for the Spoo (2454.00, +0.5%), its "Baby Blues" nonetheless just crossing negatively in real-time. The PMs are the weakest components, Silver (16.940, -1.0%) and Gold (1285.0, -0.8%); The Gold Update notes that geo-political price moves oft are short-lived; still, our Market Rhythm Target for Gold remains 1301.2 as the daily Price Oscillator is still positive, further supported by the weekly Parabolics having flipped to Long. Volatility is firmly moderate across the board.
11 Aug '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (2434.50) of 2442.75 was met in yesterday's downdraft, the range of which was better than triple the EDTR (see Market Ranges) coming into that day, ('tis now up to 15 from 12); still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have only just reached the 0% level, (i.e. the mid-point of their downside potential). Gold's (1293.1) Target remains 1301.2, albeit getting up through the "Whiny 1290s" is a proven chore. The BEGOS Markets presently are lightly changed either way and volatility is moderate. CPI due @ 05:30 PT.
10 Aug '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2462.00, -0.5%) is nearing its low from yesterday (2459.00) and is sporting the widest of the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 102%; 'tis also the weakest component and its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are increasing their downside pace; our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo is still 2442.75 per the negative daily MACD. However, Oil's (49.90) Target of 47.25 is nixed as the 8-hr. Parabolics swing to Long. Again Silver (17.075, +0.9%) is leading to the upside, back in the 17s. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. PPI due @ 05:30 PT.
09 Aug '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: One might consider yesterday's sharp reversal in the Spoo (2464.50, -0.3%) the "blow-off top", rising price having had defied the declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) and negative daily MACD, from which our Market Rhythm Target remains 2442.75. The other two Targets are still in play for Gold (cur 1274.0, tar 1301.2) and Oil (cur 49.43, tar 47.25). The BEGOS Markets upside leader is Silver (16.625, +1.2%); weakest is the Spoo; rangiest is the Swiss (1.0394, +1.0%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 167%. Q2 Productivity: 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
08 Aug '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets presently are mildly higher, volatility again running light-to-moderate. At our regularly-referred-to Market Ranges page, note how both Gold (1270.0) and the Spoo (2475.50) are at their narrowest EDTRs in at least a year; the Market Rhythm Target for the former is still 1301.2, and for the latter is still 2442.75; that too for Oil (49.52) remains at 47.25. At our Market Trends page, price for the Spoo continues to defy its falling "Baby Blues", whilst those for all eight BEGOS components are either kinking down or accelerating their pace to the downside.
07 Aug '17, 04:34 Pacific Time: Most changed amongst the essentially "unch" BEGOS Markets is Oil (49.09, -0.9%), our Market Rhythm Target of 47.25 being maintained per the Short 8-hr. Parabolics. Rangiest is Copper (2.8880, "unch") with a 107% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing from a spike up and down in the 18:00 PT hour; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update notes how the S&P (2476.83) has defied negative technical signals for some 2 years, however we'll roll with the 2442.75 Target for the Spoo (2473.75) by the falling daily MACD. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
04 Aug '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2474.25) confirmed a negative cross of its daily MACD toward giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2442.75: we view this with respect to the payrolls data still due at 05:30 PT, (along with the Trade Deficit), as an material up day can reverse this signal; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) nonetheless continue to curl lower. Targets as well remain for Gold (cur 1274.9, tar 1301.2) and Oil (cur 48.82, tar 47.25). Well into Q2 Earnings Season, only 51% of the 387 S&P 500 companies so far have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago: Our "live p/e" = 41.1x.
03 Aug '17, 04:43 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in play: Gold (cur 1271.1, tar 1301.2) per the positive daily Price Oscillator and Oil (cur 49.55, tar 47.25) per the Short-disposed 8-hr. Parabolics. The Spoo's (1271.25) daily MACD provisionally has crossed to negative; per the present Market Rhythms page listing, confirmation would give us a target of 28 points lower ($1,400/cac) from the next session's opening level; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are showing further evidence of rolling over. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed; volatility is moderate. Factory Orders & ISM (Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
02 Aug '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. As noted, we're watching the Spoo (2472.50, "unch") for a negative crossing of its daily MACD; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are again mildly lower (from 84% to 83%); those for both the Euro (1.18565, +0.2%) and Gold (1273.0, -0.1%) are looking stretched to the upside, the latter's daily Price Oscillator nonetheless positive, keeping the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 in place. Oil's (49.04, +0.5%) 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short giving us a Target of 47.25. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT.
01 Aug '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: With its daily MACD finally confirmed as negative, the Bond's (153^00) Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 is nixed. That for Gold (cur 1272.3, tar 1301.2) remains in place given the positive daily Price Oscillator. In real-time, the Spoo's (2472.25, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinking lower (live level is 84% vs. yesterday's 85%) and the daily MACD is nearing a negative cross. Silver (16.720, -0.6%) is weakest of the BEGOS Markets, most of which are lower. Volatility is moderate. Personal Inc/Spd/PCE: 05:30 PT; Construction Spending & ISM(Mfg): 07:00 PT.
31 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold's (1274.0) daily Price Oscillator moves higher, the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 still in place; The Gold Update points to having to deal with the top of the 1240-1280 box, followed by "The Whiny 1290s". The Bond's (153^06) Target of 155^08 is mathematically still in play, the daily MACD still not having confirmed the negative cross. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate; mirrored change extremes presently are Oil (49.48, -0.6%) and Copper (2.8960, +0.6%), the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 97%. Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Barring Q2 GDP (05:30 PT) data being sufficiently weak so as to drive the Bond (152^08) higher, the Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 looks to be nixed by day's end, the daily MACD provisionally now negative. Gold's (Dec 1264.4) cac volume now exceeds that for Aug (1257.7); given the still positive daily Price Oscillator, our Target remains 1301.2. The Spoo's (2465.50) daily MACD is en route to crossing negatively next week. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, save like yesterday for the Swiss (1.0339) with a 106% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing.
27 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Bond (153^02) has yet to go negative, thus not yet nixed is the 155^08 Market Rhythm Target; that for Gold (Aug cur 1263.1, tar Dec 1301.2) is supported by the positive daily Price Oscillator; the same study for Silver (16.745) has turned positive for a Target (from 16.640) of 17.040. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and moderately volatile, save for the Swiss (1.0457, -0.9%) which has traced 145% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Euro's (1.17410, -0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to break down. Durable Orders due at 05:30 PT.
26 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Bond's (152^26) daily MACD is trending toward negativity, likely en route to nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 155^08; that for Gold (Aug cur 1246.0, tar Dec 1301.2) is still in play per the daily Price Oscillator. Copper (2.8530, +0.2%) is again volatile, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 182%; for the balance of the bunch volatility is moderate; no one BEGOS Market is up by much, with both Silver (16.375) and Oil (48.27) the weak links -0.6%. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above their 0% axes. New Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Statement: 11:00 PT.
25 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Gold (Aug 1250.5, Dec 1256.8) confirmed as positive; because cac volume will be moving into Dec this week, the Market Rhythm Target basis Dec is 1301.2 (40-point goal from this session's Aug opening of 1255.2 + 6 points of cac premium). The Bond (153^25) is weakening, but with the daily MACD still positive, the 155^08 target is still in play. Copper (2.8065, +2.3%) is the BEGOS Markets big mover with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 232%; weakest is Silver (16.305, -1.0%). Volatility otherwise is moderate. Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
24 Jul '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold's (1256.9) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to positive; if confirmed, a Market Rhythm Target can be set for some 40 points higher (from the next session's opening), which has been achieved in 7 of the last 10 crossings (either higher or lower) per the Market Rhythms page. The Bond's (154^18) target of 155^08 remains in place as the daily MACD is still positive. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, save for Oil (46.08, +1.1%), which is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader. Volatility is essentially moderate. Existing Homes come due at 07:00 PT.
21 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (154^22) has thus far been working toward the Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 per the positive crossover on the daily MACD, supported too by the rising "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). The Euro's (1.16845) daily Moneyflow did not confirm going sub-50, so no signal there, the Baby Blues also still refusing to lose. Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, save for Oil (46.45, -1.0%) and the Spoo (2471.00, -0.1%). Up the most is Copper (2.7420, +1.0%), which is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 105%; otherwise, volatility is moderate.
20 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Bond (153^29) confirmed turning positive, giving us a Market Rhythm Target (from the session's opening level of 153^27) of 155^08. We're watching the Euro's (1.15430) daily Moneyflow to confirm crossing sub-50; as noted (17 Jul), the Euro's "Baby Blues" look due to begin falling; those for the Swiss (1.0468) cracked 2 weeks back. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with Silver (16.147, -0.7%) the weakest, whilst the firmest is Oil (47.49, +0.4%); volatility is running light-to-moderate. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Philly Fed: 05:30; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
19 Jul '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Bond's (153^22) daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 1^13 points ($1,400/cac) higher from the next session's opening; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have started curling up from below their -80% level, also suggestive of a run into the 155 handle. The same study for the PMs has room to run higher for both Gold (1238.9) and Silver (16.175). The BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Oil (46.75, +0.7%); volatility is light-to-moderate. Housing Starts/Building Permits come due at 05:30 PT.
18 Jul '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: We're nixing our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (Cur 1.0519, tar 1.0317) as the daily Parabolics swiftly reverse from Short to Long; the Swiss is +0.9% and is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with a 158% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Only stronger is Oil (Aug 46.48, +1.0%), the cac volume for which is moving into Sep (46.70). Gold's (1236.6) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their climbout: we're looking for price to get into the clustering area that we saw some 3 weeks back 'round 1250. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT; NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
17 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold's (1231.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) finally are beginning their climb out: per the current Gold Update, we expect to see 1250 on this run; that noted, we are keeping the Swiss (1.0439) Market Rhythm Target of 1.0317 given the Short stance of the daily Parabolics; the Swiss' Baby Blues are declining and those for the Euro (1.15030) look poised to crack. The mixed BEGOS Markets are showing light-to-moderate volatility, Copper (2.7155, +0.8%) being the exception with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 115%. NY Empire Index comes due at 05:30 PT.
14 Jul '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are presently up, save for the Spoo (2444.25, -0.1%) and the Swiss (1.0358, -0.3%); the latter's Market Rhythm Target remains in play for 1.0317. Volatility is moderate. Gold (1220.8) has been firming throughout the week, but the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have barely budged up, (-83% in real-time); at Market Values, Gold is 31 points below its smooth valuation line. Our Earnings Season page is now updating as in roll Q2 results. Retail Sales and CPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; BusInvs and UofM: 07:00 PT. Vive la France!
13 Jul '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.14155, -0.3%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 106%; Oil (45.11) is the weak link, -0.8%, the balance of the bunch either side of "unch". Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0393, tar 1.0317) remains intact, the daily Parabolics still Short. The Spoo's (2443.00) daily MACD is poised to cross positively, but we shan't set a Long target there. Gold's (1221.1) "Baby Blues" in real-time at -85% are showing just the mildest curl higher. PPI comes due @ 05:30 PT; Yellen/Senate @ 07:00 PT.
12 Jul '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: We're nixing one of the two Market Rhythm Targets for the Swiss (cur 1.0433, tar 1.0299), keeping the 1.0317 (daily Parabolics). The BEGOS Markets are either side of "unch" save for Copper (2.6910, +0.6%), which also sports the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 62%; otherwise, volatility mostly is light. Gold (1216.6) is up for the 3rd straight session, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain flat on their floor; those for Silver (15.800) also are flatlining, (but not below the -80% level). Yellen: Transcript @ 05:30 PT, House @ 07:00 PT; Fed Tan Tome @ 11:00 PT.
11 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly in the red, save for Oil (43.94), which is more so at -1.4%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 77%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold's (1209.9) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to curl up. Two Market Rhythm Targets have triggered for the Swiss (1.0371), but from higher entries - daily Parabolics: entry 1.0397, tar 1.0317; and 12-hr. Price Oscillator: entry 1.0387, tar 1.0299; the Swiss' Baby Blues have notably kinked lower in real-time, (but not from above the preferred +80%). Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
10 Jul '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (15.245, -2.0%) again leads the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 134%, the white metal also the weakest of the bunch, followed by Oil (43.75, -1.3%). Only the Bond (152^05, +0.2%) and Spoo (2423.25, "unch") are not in the red, yet the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are lower still; but those for Gold (1207.8, -0.3%) in real-time are barely curling higher: the yellow metal shows Market Profile resistance at 1210, a close above which may be considered for higher prices ahead. See The Gold Update for Gold vs. M2. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
07 Jul '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Silver (15.830, -1.2%) was "fat-fingered" and/or "flash-crashed" at 16:06 PT yesterday, falling 11% on 4,954 cacs trading within 60 seconds, recovering the bulk of its loss within a few minutes; (at that time of day, only a handful of cacs typically trade per minute). The BEGOS Markets are all presently lower, save for the Spoo (2409.50, "unch"), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) working lower still; those for Gold (1221.5, -0.3%) have yet to curl upwards. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0432, tar 1.0276) has been nixed. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
06 Jul '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2419.50, -0.4%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%, whilst weakest are both the Bond (152^23, -0.5%) and Silver (15.975, -0.5%); firmest is Oil (45.87, +0.6%). We've a Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0409, tar 1.0276) as the 8-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed negative from 1.0420. Gold's (1223.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) seem settling in the -86% area, the recent low being 1216.5; we're watching for the Blues to curl upward. ADP due @ 05:15 PT; Trade Deficit due @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
05 Jul '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues, Gold (1221.8) a tad weaker but still the BEGOS Markets leader +0.2%. Oil (46.42) has come off the boil, now -1.3%, the weakest of the bunch. Rangiest now is the Swiss (1.0394, -0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 121%. The Bond (153^01), Gold and Silver (15.970) are fairly buried at the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles, the "Baby Blues" also being quite low for the PMs, but for the Bond only just crossing the 0% axis in real-time suggestive of still lower levels. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT; FOMC Mins (14 Jun): 11:00 PT.
04 Jul '17, 05:38 Pacific Time: Stateside physical bourses are closed for Independence Day, but the two-day GLOBEX trading session carries on, with a trading halt later today from from 10:00-15:00 PT. Volatility is nonetheless moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the Bond (153^07, +0.2%) being the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 80%. Gold (1224.0) has fallen from its 1240-1280 box, yet is the firmest of the bunch, +0.4%; Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have fallen below their -80% level; once they begin curling upward will oft herald the start of a tradable uptrend.
03 Ju1 '17, 07:46 Central Euro Time: All of the BEGOS Markets presently are mildly lower, save for the Spoo (2426.75, +0.2%) with an abbreviated StateSide equities session today. Weakest are the Bond (153^10), Gold (1237.8), and Oil (46.18), all -0.3%; the latter has crossed back up into the 46s as was suggested by the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling higher. The Bond is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 57%, followed by Copper's (2.7030) 55% tracing and Gold's 52% tracing. The ISM(Mfg) Index and Construction Spending both come due at 16:00 CET.
30 Jun '17, 08:25 Central Euro Time: The Spoo's (2421.00, "unch") trading range yesterday of 43 points was the widest since 09 Nov '16 (138 points); the day's net loss of -21 points was the worst since 17 May (-41 points); still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are only just now crossing sub-0% in real-time, suggestive of lower levels in the days/weeks ahead, (albeit the Spoo has defied negative technicals time and again). Save for Oil (45.20, +0.7%), the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Pers Inc/Spd/PCE: 14:30 CET; Chi PMI: 15:45 CET.
29 Jun '17, 08:47 Central Euro Time: Cac vol for Silver (Jul 16.820) is moving into Sep (16.890); 2nd on the upside only to Copper (2.7020, +1.0%), Silver (+0.4%) is having its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) starting to curl higher, suggestive of further push back up into the lower 17s. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with the balance of the components "unch"-to-higher, the Dollar (95.610) hitting lows not seen since early last Oct. The aforementioned upturn in Oil's (44.93) Baby Blues look to lead price back through the 45s and across the 46 threshold. Final Q1 GDP revision at 14:30 CET.
28 Jun '17, 08:51 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's strength in the EuroCurrencies is seeing some follow-through, the Euro (1.14205, +0.3%) back up into the 1.14-handle for the first time since June a year ago. Benefitting too are the PMs, with Silver (16.760) +0.8% and Gold (1251.7) +0.3%. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 69% is the Bond (155^02), presently the weakest component -0.3%. Cac vol is moving in Copper (Jul 2.6505) into Sep (2.6650). Oil's (44.08, +0.8%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun curling to the upside. Pending Home Sales come due at 16:00 CET.
27 Jun '17, 08:58 Central Euro Time: Gold (1251.4) is both the BEGOS Markets upside leader, +0.5%, as well as the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 86%; still, price remains "box-bound" (1240-1280), the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing their fall, as do they for Silver (16.610, +0.3%). Presently, all components are higher, save for the Spoo (2435.25, "unch"): our "live" p/e for the S&P (2439.07) is 35.1x. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs for the EuroCurrencies and the Bond (157^02, +0.1%) are their narrowest in a year. Consumer Confidence comes due at 16:00 CET.
26 Jun '17, 08:37 Central Euro Time: Starting the week higher are Oil (43.46, +0.7%), the Spoo (2437.75, +0.2%), and Copper (2.6280, +0.1%), the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets presently lower, the weakest being Gold (1254.5, -0.3%); the Gold Update assesses the yellow metal's being docked in a box, i.e. the seemingly inescapable 1240-1280 zone. Volatility amongst the components is running light-to-moderate. The trading range for the Spoo was almost identical for the past three days from last week, (between 2428 and 2440): 'tis approximating same thus far today. Durables: 14:30 CET.
23 Jun '17, 11:21 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.6395) is the BEGOS Markets leader, +1.8%, with a robust EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 131%; 2nd is Silver (16.715), +1.2% with an 84% tracing; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way, with light-to-moderate volatility. Gold (1257.7) continues to work up from the base of its 1240-1280 resistance zone, the session high of 1258.9 being but 1 point from the zone's center: should the Market Profile level of 1256 be supportive, the next resistor is 1269; still, mind Gold's declining "Baby Blues", (see Market Trends). New Homes: 16:00 CET.
22 Jun '17, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The PMs are leading the pack, with Silver (16.580) presently +1.0%, followed by Gold (1253.7), +0.5%. Copper (2.5775) is both the weakest (-0.7%) and rangiest of the BEGOS bunch, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%. With Gold trading as low yesterday at 1241.7, we've the early appearance 'twas the test of the lower end of the 1240-1280 resistance zone, given the bounce we're seeing today; also, this session's low thus far (1246.4) is essentially at the Market Profile support level of 1247; but the resistor at 1256 has held as the high.
21 Jun '17, 08:37 Central Euro Time: A fairly muted start across the BEGOS Markets both by present change and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings. In the last session, the PMs traded down to their lowest levels in just over a month, Gold (1246.8) reaching near the bottom of its 1240-1280 resistance zone by going sub-1243. The Spoo's (2433.00) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning to roll over just a bit, (albeit not from above the preferred +80% level); that noted, the only component showing any upside strength by that same measure is the Bond (156^11). Existing Home Sales due at 16:00 CET.
20 Jun '17, 11:02 Central Euro Time: Silver (16.565) and Oil (44.56) are presently the BEGOS Markets leaders, +0.6% and +0.5% respectively; weakest is Copper (2.5795, -0.4%); save for the red metal, Bond (155^24) and Spoo (2448.25), the other 5 components are fairly buried around the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles. Copper, Gold (1249.4) and the Euro (1.12105) have joined Oil and Silver with negative 21-day linreg trends, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time going sub-0%. The "live" p/e of the S&P (2453.46) remains extremely high at 35.3x. Q1 Current Account: 14:30 CET.
19 Jun '17, 12:42 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.5890) starts the week firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the red metal +0.7% and covering an EDTR (see Market ranges) tracing of 77%, the widest of the bunch. The PMs are the weak links, both Gold (1252.5) and Silver (16.640) -0.2%; the white metal is the 2nd of the components, (after Oil [45.12]), to see its 21-day linreg trend turn negative. The Gold Update points to several near-term textbook technical studies moving into negativity such that we may see the yellow metal test the lower boundary of the 1240-1280 resistance zone. 'Tis a quiet incoming data week.
16 Jun '17, 09:41 Central Euro Time: The cac volume for the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Jun into Sep, as it is too for Oil from Jul (44.63) into Aug (44.87). Save for Oil, which is +0.9%, the balance of the BEGOS bunch presently are little changed either way, and volatility is essentially light all 'round. Oil remains the only component with a negative 21-day linreg trend, however several of the other markets are nearing that tipping point. The ongoing divergence between the rising S&P (2432) and falling EconBaro has been in play now for some 2 months. Housing/Permits @ 14:30 CET; UofM @ 16:00 CET.
15 Jun '17, 07:55 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Copper (2.5770) up the most at +0.5% and leading the EDTR (see Market ranges) tracings at 102%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise light-to-moderate; weakest is the Spoo (2429.75, -0.2%). Oil (44.69) is down to its lowest level since 05 May. Both Gold (1264.7) and Silver (16.970) have moved below their dominant Market Profile supports of 1269 and 17.20 respectively. 8 incoming data metrics from 14:30-16:00 CET include the Philly Fed, NY Empire Index, Ex/In Pricing, IndProd/CapUtil, and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 Jun '17, 08:25 Central Euro Time: The PMs are leading the otherwise mostly "unch" BEGOS Markets, with Silver (16.880, +0.4%) and Gold (1270.8, +0.2%). As noted, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling for all of the components, save for those (as yet) of the Spoo (2436). At Market Ranges, the Bond's (154^02) EDTR is at about its narrowest (29/32nds) in at least a year, albeit that ought likely get traced by better than 100% on the FOMC statement today at 20:00 CET. Prior to that, we've EconBaro data on both Retail Sales and the CPI at 14:30 CET, followed by Business Inventories at 16:00 CET.
13 Jun '17, 17:22 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.5915) and Silver (16.790) are the weak links thus far, both -0.9%, with the Spoo (2431.75, +0.2%) leading to the upside; that noted, we're watching for the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) to begin running out of puff should price not soon make a run to the recent all-time high (2443). In fact, save for Oil (45.69) for which as noted is the only BEGOS Market already in a negative 21-day linreg downtrend, the Baby Blues for all 8 components are dropping. The PPI came in flat for May, albeit the core rate went +0.3%. The FOMC statement is due tomorrow.
12 Jun '17, 10:50 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mildly mixed on volatility that is light-to-moderate at best. Gold (1270.7) is +0.1%: The Gold Update points to price having traded last week to a marginal new high for the year (1298), en route flipping the weekly parabolic trend from Short to Long; however in real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their fall for both Gold and Silver (17.155, -0.2%). Oil's (45.96, +0.1%) 21-day linreg downtrend has steepened; such trend for the other 7 components remains up. No scheduled incoming data today for the EconBaro.
09 Jun '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are mixed and volatility moderate. The Spoo's (Jun 2434.25) cac volume is rolling into Sep (2431.75). As tied together as they've been of late, opposed today are Silver (17.330, -0.5%) and Copper (2.6260, +0.4%). In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over downward for Silver, Gold (1276.1), the EuroCurrencies and the Bond (154^05). Oil's (45.70) 21-day linreg trend is now down, the first to break the stance of all 8 components' trends having been up. The quiet data weeks ends with Wholesale Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 Jun '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.5790, +1.0%) the firmest of the bunch and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 107%. The balance of the components are lower, save for Silver (17.630, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2435.25, +0.1%). As anticipated, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies are now kinking lower in real-time; specific to the Swiss, (1.0351, -0.2%), its daily Parabolics would flip Short at 1.0295 (today) or about 1.0314 (tomorrow). ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT; UK voting results: from 14:00 PT onward.
07 Jun '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Save barely for the Spoo (2431.50, +0.1%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets presently are in the red, led by the Euro (1.12110, -0.7%), arguably as Banco Popular is "rescued" by Santander, the Dollar (96.910) getting the bid. With the exception of the Euro tracing 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), volatility otherwise is moderate. We'll be watching for the high levels of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) over the next few sessions to crack for both the Euro and Swiss (1.0345); Those for Silver (17.605) appear "toppy" as well. Consumer Credit due at 12:00 PT.
06 Jun '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Gold (1294.4, +1.0%) is breaking out above both the 1240-1280 resistance zone and weekly Parabolics flip level of 1285. It is presently up the most of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver (17.665, +0.7%). Of note, the yellow metal's high for the year is 1297.4, whilst the white metal's is 18.700. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, with the weakest of the bunch Copper (2.5190, -1.6%) also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 114%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating downward for both the red metal and Oil (47.26, -0.3%).
05 Jun '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, all of which, save for the PMs, are presently lower. Copper (2.5490, -1.1%) is both the downside leader and the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 79%. Gold (1283.1, +0.1%) has come very near flipping its weekly Parabolics to Long, the session's high of 1284.7 only 2 pips from the trigger price of 1284.9 (see The Gold Update). The Spoo (1234.00, -0.1%) is running some 50 points high per our Market Values page. Productivity (Q1 Revised) at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders & ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Jun '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the hard commodities lower and the financials higher. Weakest is Oil (47.19, -1.7%), our Market Rhythm Target (53.34) having confirmed as failed with the daily Price Oscillator now negative: Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over, the first of those for the 8 Markets for which all the Blues had been rising for at least the past 2 weeks. Firmest is the Spoo (2435.75, +0.3%). Volatility is light-to-robust, from the Swiss' (1.0304) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 21% to Copper's (2.5330) 131%. Payrolls & Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT.
01 Jun '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 48.40, tar 53.34) looks to confirm as failed by day's end, the daily Price Oscillator now just barely positive; Oil's rising "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now stalled in real-time. Still, the 21-day linear regression trends for all 8 BEGOS Markets remain up, albeit all 8 prices are lower this session, the weakest component being Silver (17.110, -1.2%), which also is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 120%. ADP @ 05:15 PT; Productivity (Q1 Revised) @ 05:30 PT; Construction Spending/ISM(Mfg) @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Waning as 'tis, Oil's (48.59, -2.1%) daily Price Oscillator is still positive, which keeps the Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 alive, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) higher yet again this session. None of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently changed by more than 0.5% either way, and volatility is moderate. Rangiest is the Swiss (1.0309, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%; the Spoo (2414.25, +0.1%) has the narrowest such tracing at 29%. Incoming data includes the Chi PMI at 06:45 PT, Pending Homes at 07:00, and the Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
30 May '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility picks up as this Sun-Tue session continues, Copper (2.5515, -0.7%) the weakest of the bunch and sporting the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 121%, 2nd rangiest are the EuroCurrencies, their EDTR tracings exceeding 100%. Only the Bond (154^06, +0.1%) is in the black. Oil's (49.64, -0.5%) daily Price Oscillator is still positive toward our maintaining the 53.34 Market Rhythm Target; in spite of last Thursday's price fallout, Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still rising. Pers Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; ConsConf due @ 07:00 PT.
29 May '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: Physical bourses are closed StateSide, in London and in Shanghai, but with GLOBEX running we find the BEGOS Markets trading in this Sun-Tue session, albeit changes are mild and volatility thus far light. The biggest net mover at present is Oil (49.68, -0.4%), still not negative enough to move the daily Price Oscillator into negative ground, thus the Market Rhythm Target is still in play at 53.34. Volume for Gold (Jun 1266.5) is moving into the Aug cac (1269.8). As described in The Gold Update, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are on the rise for all 8 of the BEGOS Components.
26 May '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil's (48.76, +0.1%) daily Price Oscillator is still to the plus side despite price itself taking a hard yet yesterday (from 52.00 to 48.45); technically, the Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 remains in place until either 'tis met or the study confirms as negative, (cash mgt. always being the key overrider). Save for Copper (2.5810, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2410.50, -0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are up and volatility runs from light-to-robust: rangiest is Gold (1267.0, +0.9%) with an EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of 124%; the Spoo's is just 34%. 2nd peek at Q1 GDP and Durables at 05:30 PT.
25 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2408.75, +0.2%) is up for the 6th straight day. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for all 8 BEGOS Markets are rising; that noted, per GLOBEX closes, only 2 of the components are higher, the other being the Swiss (1.0296, +0.1%). Weakest is Oil (50.63, -1.3%), which had been higher until the OPEC call to likely extend cuts 9 more months; "sell the news" or otherwise, Oil's daily Price Oscillator remains positive such that our Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 is maintained. Again, the Euro (1.12195, -0.1%) per our Market Values page still appears excessively high.
24 May '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: Oil's (51.46) daily Price Oscillator continues to rise, albeit price is barely changed, as is the case across all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper (2.5780, -0.8%); Oil's Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 remains in place. Components' volatility is mostly light, again except for Copper which has traced 98% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The EuroCurrencies may be topping out: as was noted in The Gold Update and per our Market Values page, the Euro (1.11995) itself is still 5¢ above its BEGOS Market valuation. Existing Homes due @ 07:00 PT; FOMC 03 May Minutes due @ 11:00 PT.
23 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: As noted, Oil (50.85) is higher over these last 2 weeks, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) only just having crossed above their 0% axis suggesting there's more to run; thus given the confirmation of the daily Price Oscillator having crossed to positive, we've a Market Rhythm Target of 53.34. The Spoo's (2396.25) Baby Blues are in their 9th consecutive day of falling, despite price presently up for the 5th straight session. Save for Copper (2.5835, -0.7%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lightly changed either way and volatility is moderate. New Homes due at 07:00 PT.
22 May '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver (16.960, +0.7%) is both the BEGOS Markets upside leader and top EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer at 105%; the balance of the other components' volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's (51.05) daily Price Oscillator is provisionally crossed to positive: Oil has already had a substantive 2-week up run, yet confirmation of the cross would offer a Market Rhythm Target of 2.30 points ($2,300/cac) higher still from the subsequent session's open. Q1 Earnings Season concluded with 58% of 2,475 companies reporting higher bottom lines, 8% the same, and 34% lower than 2016's Q1.
19 May '17, 04:48 Pacific Time: The volatility in the BEGOS Markets has slowed to a bit more moderate pace than we've seen through much of the week, no one component exceeding 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), and only the Euro (1.11885) being near that level with a 98% tracing. The recent strength in the EuroCurrencies has yet to turn their "Baby Blues" materially higher: rather, their fall has been abated. The Spoo (2369.25) is rising for the 2nd straight day, but its daily MACD has become further negative, our Market Rhythm Target thus remaining at 2331.00. Q1 Earnings Season concludes.
18 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2348.25, -0.3%) confirmed its negative Daily MACD cross, giving us a Market Rhythm Target for 24 points lower as measured from this session's opening (2355.00) of 2331.00, noting that the session's low already has reached down to 2344.50; again the Spoo leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%, followed by Copper (2.4950, -2.0%) at 121%. Silver (16.765) is -0.7%, but Gold (1261.9) is all but "unch", (basis GLOBEX closes). Again, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust. Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
17 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo (2388.50, -0.4%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 137%, followed by Gold (1246.0, +0.7%) with a 108% tracing; oddly, least volatile is Silver (16.910, +0.4%) with only a 42% tracing. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop and the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative. The 12-hour Price Oscillators for both Gold and the Bond (152^04, +0.3%) appear on track to crossing positively in a day or so. The Euro (1.11215, (+0.2%) moving back up to its StateSide pre-election level.
16 May '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2400.00) up move yesterday has kept the daily MACD from crossing negatively; yet in real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling for their 4th straight session; those for both Gold (1233.4) and Silver (16.695) are curling higher. Volatility is robust for the upside-leading EuroCurrencies, the Euro (1.10745) having traced 117% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and the Swiss (1.0121) with a 101% tracing. For the balance of the BEGOS bunch, volatility is at best moderate. Housing Starts/Building Permits due @ 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil due @ 06:15 PT.
15 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil (49.25) is the session's big mover, +3.0%, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 123%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, Silver (16.625) notably +1.0%: The Gold Update cited the white metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having kinked up on Friday; those for Gold (1231.05, +0.3%) are just so doing in real-time; volatility (ex-Oil) is otherwise moderate. The daily MACD for the Spoo (1291.25, +0.1%) still is poised to negatively cross: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 24 points lower. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
12 May '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the range leader being the Spoo (2387.00) with a 50% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); changes are mild, the most presently being Copper (2.5165), +0.4%. The Euro's (1.08935) daily Moneyflow is on its 50 mid-line without a decisive crossover. The Spoo's daily MACD looks poised for a negative cross, barring a renewed upside move. The PMs continue to firm in working to stave off a 4th consecutive down week: mind their "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. Retail Inflation & Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment and BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
11 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are higher across the board, save for the Spoo (2391.50, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate, save for robust Copper (2.5435, +1.9%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 120%. The Euro's (1.08905) daily Moneyflow has yet to confirm a negative cross, albeit the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop, as do those for the Swiss (0.9945) which in real-time are crossing below their 0% axis. The PMs are firming, Gold (1222.5) still some 40+ points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Wholesale Inflation @ 05:30 PT.
10 May '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: As was noted for the Swiss (0.9952), the Euro's (1.08835) "Baby Blues" too have let go sub-80%, suggestive of a move down into the mid-1.07s; the Euro's daily Moneyflow is nearing a cross sub-50, which if confirmed would then give us a Market Rhythm Target of $1,300/cac lower (-0.01040) from the opening of the next session. BEGOS Markets volatility is at best barely moderate, with Silver (16.305, +0.7%) the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%; narrowest is Oil (46.32, +0.3%) with a 31% tracing. Ex/Im pricing @ 05:30 PT.
09 May '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate, rangiest being the Swiss (1.0000) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; powered by yesterday's down-sweep, the Swiss' "Baby Blues" in real-time are markedly falling sub-80%, suggestive of lower levels ahead, perhaps a re-test of the 10 April low at 0.9934; the Swiss' 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a negative cross yesterday (12:00 PT) from 1.0040, which per our Market Rhythms page suggests an $1,800/cac drop (-0.0144 points) to 0.9898. Whsl Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 May '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Post-French election, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold (1235.0, +0.5%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 124% in initially dropping -7 at the open before jumping +15; volatile too are Copper (2.4875, -2.0%) in making a year-to-date low, and the EuroCurrencies. The Gold Update suggests that any further lows in this downleg wouldn't be too dear from here (1231, 1211, 1190); by its Market Magnet, Gold appears as at oversold extreme, although more broadly, not so per our Market Values page. 2 weeks still to run in Q1 Earnings Season.
05 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold (1234.0) has slipped as low as 1225.7 since falling back through the entirety of its 1240-1280 resistance zone, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) going sub-0% and the daily Price Oscillator turning negative; (more in tomorrow's Gold Update). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for Oil (45.33, -0.4%) which has traced 167% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly extreme deviation. The session's narrowest component is the Bond (151^25) with just a 39% tracing. Payrolls data: 05:30 PT.
04 May '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Gold (1234.6) has crossed to negative; as we're not big on shorting Gold, we shan't set a Market Rhythm Target, however, 7 of the past 10 crossings of this study (up or down) have traveled at least another 40 points prior to the study's next confirmed cross, (the inference being from this session's open of 1238.5, we may see 1198.5 over the ensuing days/weeks). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with presently no material changes either way. The Trade Deficit and Q1 Productivity come due at 05:30 PT followed by Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
03 May '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold's (1254.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing sub-0% in real time; Gold's daily Price Oscillator ought cross to negative today should price weaken much more. The BEGOS are quietly mixed on light volatility, save for Copper (2.5735) which is -2.5% and has traced 139% of its EDTR (see Market Trends); Market Profile support shows at 2.5550. The Bond (152^26) per its Profile is sitting on its most dominantly-traded price of the last 10 days, (Market Magnet is 153^04). ADP Jobs: 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; FOMC: 11:00 PT (no press conf); France debate: 12:00 PT.
02 May '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, save for Copper (2.6265, -1.2%) and Oil (49.22, +1.0%); volatility again is light-to-moderate, the red metal leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%, whilst narrowest is the Spoo (2385.50) with only a 24% tracing. Gold's (1256.4) daily Price Oscillator is still just positive, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) look poised to go sub-0% tomorrow; recall this mid-1250s area was the most dominant zone for trading volume per the Market Profile a couple of weeks ago; Profile resistance presently runs from 1265-1268.
01 May '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Silver (17.140) hit our Market Rhythm Target of 17.205; Gold's (1264.1) daily Price Oscillator has not quite slipped to negative, yet should it soon we'd expect to see the lower 1250s, an area which per The Gold Update we'd like to see hold; also therein is pointed out that Gold, now up for 4 straight months, has only made it to 5 (mutually-exclusively) twice in the past 25 years. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; changes are lightly mixed; many non-US bourses are closed for 01 May. Pers Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; Construction Spending/ISM(Mfg) due @ 07:00 PT.
28 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility again is light, save for the EuroCurrencies: the Euro (1.09570, +0.6%) has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and the Swiss (1.0121, +0.3%) 119% of its EDTR. Firmest is Silver (17.425, +0.8%), but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative such as to keep our 17.205 Market Rhythm Target intact; again, the same study for Gold (1268.5) appears headed for a negative cross. The Bond (152^17) and Copper (2.5950) are the weak links, but both just -0.1%. 1st peek at a "weaker than expected" Q1 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT.
27 Apr '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2383.75, +0.1%), the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets all are mildly lower; volatility is light, Gold (1265.9) being the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing over 50% (52%). Gold's "Baby Blues" continue to freely fall as do those for Silver (17.410), the latter's Market Rhythm Target in place for 17.205 per the negative daily Price Oscillator; the same study for Gold is nearing a negative cross. Copper's (2.5975) Baby Blues are curling up, (albeit not from below the -80% level), given some price recovery. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Apr '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold's (1266.7) "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall whilst those for Silver (Jul 17.640) go further sub-0%; the white metal's daily Price Oscillator has confirmed crossing negative for a Market Rhythm Target of 17.205; as Silver's cac volume moves into Jul, so is that for Copper (Jul 2.5885). BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, save again for the Euro (1.09225) which has traced 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); presently, no one component is changed either way by more than 0.4%. The 5 primary BEGOS components are in sync per their Market Values page.
25 Apr '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: As we've been anticipating, Gold's (1272.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Ranges) have at last broken below their +80% level, price now back into the 1240-1280 resistance zone; per Gold's recent Market Profiles, we'd eye 1255 as support; Silver's (17.815) Baby Blues in real-time have crossed below their 0% axis. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate: firmest is Copper (2.5720, +0.7%);weakest are both Gold & Silver, -0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.09055) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 73%. New Homes & Consumer Confidence come due & 07:00 PT.
24 Apr '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: As traders expected, most of the BEGOS Markets gapped open one way or the other post-French 1ère tour voting for president; (2ème tour is Sun, 07 May). Strength is in the EuroCurrencies, weakness is in the Yen (0.90950), Dollar (0.98950), Bond (153^01), and Precious Metals. We are nixing our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0078, tar 0.9849), the daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing above 50 (scale 0-100); the Swiss is also the most volatile of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 150%; 'tis followed by the Euro (1.08855) itself at 124%.
21 Apr '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. At our Market Ranges page, with the exception of Copper (2.5435) and the Spoo (2354.75), the balance of the EDTRs are considerably narrow, a "hint" perhaps that ramped-up event-driven volatility is nearing. The Swiss' (1.0045) measure of daily Moneyflow is still sub-50 (at 48), keeping the Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849 in place. The Bond's (154^07) 12-hr. Parabolics would flip to Short today should price go sub-154; Spoo's daily MACD looking to cross positive. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
20 Apr '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The firming in the Swiss (1.0073) is pushing the daily Moneyflow (cur 47) back up toward the 50 border, putting into jeopardy our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies have been climbing throughout this week; the Euro (1.07735) today has traced 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); otherwise, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes are mixed. Gold's (1280.3) Baby Blues still haven't cracked, but those for Silver (18.170) continue to fall. Philly Fed Index due @ 05:30 PT; then come Leading Indicators @ 07:00 PT.
19 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0074) is rising (now 39, scale 100-0), for which our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849 would remain barring the measure confirming a cross above 50. BEGOS Markets volatility is again moderate with changes presently mixed. Weakest is Gold (1284.3, -0.6%), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) holding at +80%, although those for Silver (18.200, -0.2%) are finally dropping (down at +60% in real-time). The upside leader is Copper (2.5485, +0.8%), yet its own Baby Blues continue to sink; those for Oil (52.95, +0.4%) look poised to roll over.
18 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Copper (2.5520, -1.7%), the red metal again the rangiest with a 93% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Firmest is the Swiss (1.0016, +0.3%), albeit its daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (at 30 on a scale of 100-0) such that our Market Rhythm Target is still in place at 0.9849. Oil's (May 52.24) cac volume is moving into Jun (52.68); 1st notice for delivery is Mon (24 Apr). Anticipated PMs' weakness is kicking in a bit as we mind their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). Housing/Permits: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT.
17 Apr '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9998, tar 0.9849) remains in place as the daily Moneyflow is still sub-50 (cur 26, scale 100-0). The BEGOS Markets on balance are mildly higher, save for Oil (52.69, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2324.75, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper (2.5890) being up the most at +0.7% and also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%. The marginally-higher PMs still show their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends & The Gold Update) as poised to further fall. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
13 Apr '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are slightly lower-to-higher; volatility is moderate. The Euro (1.06690) is off the most, -0.3%; the Swiss' (0.9993, -0.1%) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0) such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849. Up the most is Copper (2.5675, +1.0%), the red metal also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 97%. Gold (1290.2, +0.1%) is atop its 1240-1280 resistance zone. This is the last Globex trading session until Sunday @ 15:00 PT. PPI: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment 07:00 PT. Tomorrow: CPI, Retail Sales & Bus Invs.
12 Apr '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold's (1275.5) surge yesterday was sufficient to pull the daily Moneyflow back above 50 (scale 0-100), leaving the Shorts "deservedly" holding the bag; overnight, price briefly departed above the 1240-1280 resistance zone, and in real-time, the "Baby Blues" have kinked up, albeit those for Silver (18.320) are notched lower. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9960, tar 0.9849) remains in place. Save for Oil (53.63, +0.4%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Copper (2.5785, -1.2%); volatility again is light-to-moderate. Ex/Im pricing due @ 05:30 PT.
11 Apr '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9968) daily Moneyflow remains well-sub-50 (at 16) toward maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849; Gold's (1259.3) daily Moneyflow has confirmed going sub-50, which for the Shorts suggests we'll see 1243.8; Silver's (17.930) daily MACD has provisionally crossed negative. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both PMs are falling such as to also suggest lower price levels near-term; that noted, Gold has scrabbled back above the dominant 1255 Market Profile price. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, all 8 components presently little changed either way.
10 Apr '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Gold Update states the case for Gold (1254.2) to work lower near-term, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now rolling over from the -80% level, as are those for Silver (17.930). As well, Gold's daily Moneyflow is provisionally sub-50, whilst Silver's daily MACD is approaching a negative cross; Gold's Market Profile shows 1255 as the most dominantly-traded price for last 2 weeks. The Swiss' (0.9940) daily Moneyflow is lower still (18), our Market Rhythm Target there still 0.9849. The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, the outlier being Oil (52.63, +0.7%); volatility is light-to-moderate.
07 Apr '17, 04:14 Pacific Time: The Syrian affair effectively has BEGOS Markets volatility running at a robust pace, Gold (1265.2, +0.9%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 168%, followed by Silver (18.395, +0.7%) with a 125% tracing, and then Oil (52.21, +0.9%) at 124%. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (0.9982, -0.1%) is still in place at 0.9849, the daily Moneyflow now down to 23 (scale 100-0). Despite the overnight flight to safety, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time another notch lower; those for Silver are toppy. Payrolls data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
06 Apr '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0007) is lower still (31 on a scale of 100-0), our Market Rhythm Target remaining at 0.9849. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the changes mixed: firmest is Oil (51.31, +1.0%), whilst weakest are both the Bond (151^09) and Silver (18.240) each -0.4%. Rangiest is the Euro (1.07015) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%; narrowest is Copper (2.6770) with a 40% tracing. Gold's (1253.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have just kinked down from the +85% area; similarly, we are watching for same with Silver.
05 Apr '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: Gold's (1255.4) 12-hr. MACD, having crossed back to positive and now back to negative, is so indecisive such that we've nixed the Market Rhythm Target of 1232.6; the Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0003, tar 0.9849) remains in place as the daily Moneyflow continues to sink sub-50. Volatility is fairly light for the BEGOS Markets, 6 of which are little changed, save for Oil (51.58, +0.9%) and Copper (2.6515, +1.2%): the red metal is the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 92%; the rest are all less than 60%. ADP: 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
04 Apr '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Bond's (152^06) rapid up-shot yesterday through the 12-hr. Parabolics nixed our 148^23 Market Rhythm Target; today, Gold's (1259.7) 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed back to positive, which if confirmed come 12:00 PT would as well nix that Target of 1232.6; the Swiss' (1.0014) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50, maintaining the 0.9849 Target. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. Both Silver (18.360) and Oil (50.46) are up the most at +0.4%; weakest is the Euro (1.06835, -0.2%). Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
03 Apr '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets abound: still open are those for the Bond (cur 150^30, tar 148^23) and Gold (cur 1247.4, tar 1232.6); plus as anticipated, both the Euro (1.06915) and Swiss (1.0013) confirmed their daily Moneyflows crossing sub-50, the Swiss (per the Market Rhythms page) having in prior crossings been the more profitable of the 2, so we'll set the Target there at 0.9849, (ideally from the session's open of 1.0017). Save for the Spoo (2359.25, +0.1%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are a bit lower and volatility is mostly light. ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.6565) whipsaw in price yesterday flipped the daily Parabolics to Long, thus nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 2.5935. Gold's (Jun 1244.1) 12-hr. MACD did confirm crossing negative yesterday at 12:00 for a Target (from 1246.6) of 1232.6. The Bond's (150^15) 12-hr. Parabolics remain Short, the Target there still 148^23. The daily Moneyflows on both the Euro (1.07205) and Swiss (1.0038) are crossing sub-50 (scale 100-0) such that they may have Targets in beginning next week. The BEGOS Markets are little changed and narrow. Pers Inc/Spd: 05:30; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT.
30 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The cac volume has moved into Jun for Gold (1253.2); its 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, which if confirmed at 12:00 PT would set a Market Rhythm Target from that time of 14 points lower. Targets remains in place for Copper (cur 2.6635, tar 2.5935) and the Bond (cur 151^12, tar 148^23). The BEGOS Markets on balance are skewed a bit lower, the weakest being Silver (18.170, -0.5%); only the Bond and Swiss (1.0091) are higher, both by +0.1%; volatility is basically light; the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is Copper's 58%. Final Q4 GDP: 05:30 PT.
29 Mar '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^25) 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed their flip to Short (from 150^26) to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 148^23; Copper's (2.6655) daily Parabolics remain Short, our Target there 2.5935. Gold's (1252.0) 12-hr. MACD is nearing a negative crossover, which if confirmed (perhaps in the next day or 2) would then set a Target for 14 points lower. Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets a little changed and volatility mostly is light, save for the Euro (1.08330) which has traced 70% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). "Brexit" begins; Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
28 Mar '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Having being robust, BEGOS Markets volatility has swung to light with changes presently minimal either way, the most being for Oil (48.12, +0.6%); rangiest is Copper (2.6310, -0.2%) with but a 52% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Copper's daily Parabolics have confirmed flipping Long for a Market Rhythm Target (from 2.6375) of 2.5935. We're watching the Bond's (151^18, +0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics, which per the Market Rhythms page would set up a downside target of $2,100/cac (2^04 points) upon confirming a flip to Short. Consumer Confidence due at 07:00 PT.
27 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: A robust start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, led higher by Gold (1256.9, +1.1%) and to the downside by Copper (2.5840, -2.1%); the red metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 121%; 2nd in the tracings is the Spoo (2326.75, -0.7%) at 112%. Despite being lower, Oil's (47.59, -1.1%) "Baby Blues" (see 23 Mar) still appear in early up-curl; price's most recent low was 47.01 on 22 Mar. As cited in The Gold Update, the Euro (1.09075, +0.6%) is at an extreme above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), further exacerbated by today's rise.
24 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate with the components at present little changed either way: up the most is Oil (47.90, +0.5%), whilst equally down the most is Copper (2.6365 -0.5%); rangiest is the Swiss (1.0137, +0.2%) with a 93% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Profiles, both the Bond (150^12) and Gold (1243.8) are just below dominant trading resistors, respectively at 150^22 and 1248.0. At Market Values, the Euro (1.08445) appears at a high extreme vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line. Durable Orders @ 05:30 PT.
23 Mar '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 150^14, tar 150^28) was reached. Gold's (1247.8) daily Price Oscillator has crossed to positive, for which we'd normally set a Target given that study is presently on the Market Rhythms page listing; but with price having entered the 1240-1280 resistance zone, we shan't formally set such Target. The BEGOS Markets are little changed and volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, Oil's (48.40) "Baby Blues" in real-time are now just perceptively curling up, albeit still sub their -80% level. New Home Sales come due @ 07:00 PT.
22 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^13) Market Rhythm Target of 150^28 is within the day's EDTR (see Market Ranges), the high (150^25) already having come close and the 12-hr. Price Oscillator working higher. Yesterday's note on the Spoo's (2341.00) having yet to materially respond to its falling "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) finally saw price crack, the 21-day linreg trend itself only now just rotating from up to down, the Blues in real-time crossing sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are little changed, save for Oil (47.63, -1.1%); volatility is moderate. Existing Home Sales come due @ 07:00 PT.
21 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: We have a fresh Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 148^26, tar 150^28), its 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed as positive at 00:00 PT (midnight) from 148^31. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.08565, +0.6%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 123%. Up the most is Oil (49.26, +0.7%) and weakest is Copper (2.6395, -0.5%). The Spoo's (2374.50, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in their 12th consecutive day of dropping without price having materially let go to the downside. Q4 Current Account: 05:30 PT.
20 Mar '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Oil (48.74, -1.1%) is both the weakest of the bunch and the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 59%; price is just below the dominant Market Profile level of 49.00. Gold (1232.7, +0.3%) is the firmest component. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's nearing entrapment between the rising weekly parabolic Long trend and the 1240-1280 resistance zone; in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked up, whilst those for Silver (17.415, "unch") have, for the present, stalled their fall.
17 Mar '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Again a mostly moderate volatility session for the BEGOS Markets also finds them mostly higher, save for the Euro (1.07870), -0.3%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 64%. The PMs are still firm post FedHike, Gold (1228.3) having reached our "non"-Market Rhythm Target of 1230.5. Oil's (Apr 49.03) cac volume is moving into May (49.52) with 1st notice next Thu (23 Mar). Oil, Gold, Silver (17.370) and the Bond (147^28) have been tracking the same over the past 21 days. IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment/LEI: 07:00 PT.
16 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (147^22, -0.5%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are maintaining their post FedHike gains. Copper (2.6915) is firmest, +0.8%, followed by Oil (49.24, +0.6%) and then the PMs. Rangiest is the Bond with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%, volatility being moderate across the BEGOS spectrum. Gold's (1224.1) 12-hr. MACD produced a positive crossing, but in measuring that from 1216.5, 'tis a bit steep already to set a Market Rhythm Target for 1230.5, especially as 1228.7 has since traded. Housing Starts/Building Permits & Philly Fed all due at 05:30 PT.
15 Mar '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, even though the Dollar (101.435) is only barely lower at -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, both Copper (2.6615) up the most at +0.6% and Gold (1201.0, +0.2%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 60%; least volatile is Silver (16.915, +0.2%) with a 34% tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to fall for the Bond (147^02), Oil (48.73), the Spoo (2368.25) and the PMs. At Market Magnets, Oil is off an extreme low. CPI/Retail Sales/Empire Index: 05:30 PT; BusInvs/NAHB: 07:00 PT; FOMC: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
14 Mar '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Yesterday's provisional positive crossing of the Bond's (146^01) 8-hr. MACD failed to confirm, so no Market Rhythm Target was set. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the components lightly mixed: Oil (48.69) is firmest, +0.5%, whilst weakest is the Euro (1.06840), -0.2%; rangiest is the Swiss (0.9972, -0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%. Although its 21-day linreg trend remains positive, the Spoo's (2369.25) "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) are falling for the 8th straight day. FOMC's 2-day stint begins. PPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
13 Mar '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond's (147^03) 8-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to positive: if confirmed at 08:00 PT, we'll have a Market Rhythm Target of 1^26 points higher ($1,800/cac). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, save for the Spoo (2366.25) for which the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is just 30%; rangiest is the Swiss (0.9976) with an 89% tracing. Copper (2.6325) is presently changed the most, +1.2%. The Gold Update highlights the negative 21-day linreg trends across the BEGOS components, except for the Spoo, but the PMs are showing firmness today.
10 Mar '17, 04:42 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Copper (cur 2.5910, tar 2.5585) was reached yesterday. Silver's (19.930) daily Price Oscillator confirmed a cross to negative, but as price is so near a key "fib" retracement level (16.81, as depicted in the still current Gold Update from last Sat), we shan't set a further downside Target. The BEGOS Markets are modestly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, the Spoo (2371.25, +0.3%) being the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 75%. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is moving from Mar into Jun; 1st position is Mon. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
09 Mar '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5665) daily Price Oscillator is working lower, our Market Rhythm Target of 2.5585 still intact; the Spoo's (2362.00) daily MACD is extending its negative stance. The Precious Metals "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have crossed sub-0% in real-time, the 21-day linreg trends now down. Oil (49.29) is off the most, -1.8%, of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower, except for the EuroCurrencies; volatility is moderate, save for Oil having traced 181% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Jun becomes Spoo's "front month". ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT.
08 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Copper (2.6245) confirmed a negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2.5585; the widely-watched daily MACD on the Spoo (2365.50) is confirmed as negative, however we shan't set a specific downside Target there, (see yesterday's note). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, no 1 component at present changed by more than 0.5% either way. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing falling for the Precious Metals, their 21-day linreg trends rotating from up to down. ADP: 05:15 PT; Q4 Productivity(Rev): 05:30; Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
07 Mar '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.6380) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative: if confirmed at close, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.0560 points ($1,400) lower from the next session's open. The Spoo's (2371.75) daily MACD also has provisionally crossed to negative: this study is at present not on our Market Rhythms page (given the performance qualifications thereon), but it remains a key measure in the trader/investor community. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with little change in either direction; volatility is running light-to-moderate. Trade Deficit comes due at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Target signals for we're watching include pending negative crossings in the Spoo's (2375.25) daily MACD, both Silver's (17.865) and Copper's (2.6575) daily Price Oscillators, and a positive crossing in the Bond's (149^22) 8-hr. MACD; the latter is the only BEGOS Market presently higher, +0.1%, Copper being off the most at -1.8%. The Gold Update highlights Silver's Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) breaking down; those for the EuroCurrencies are beginning to curl up from below their respective -80% levels. Factory Orders come due at 07:00 PT.
03 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Gold (1227.0) reached the Market Rhythm Target of 1231.9. More notably, Silver's (17.725) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have finally cracked; should a material correction ensue, downside "fib" levels we're noting per the up-run from the December lows are in the areas of 17.500, 17.100 & 16.800. The Spoo's (1278.50) Blues still have yet to break down. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes are mixed, Gold being off the most at -0.6%; the Euro (1.05475) is firmest at +0.4%. ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT. Both Yellen & Fischer have addresses @ 10:00 PT.
02 Mar '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red and volatility is moderate, the weakest component being Gold (1240.2, -0.8%), its 12-hr. MACD becoming further negative and its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now noticeably starting to roll over; those for Silver (18.340, -0.7%) have yet to break down. The Dollar (102.095), whilst higher, is still below its Jan high of 103.815, (the highest level since 2003). The Spoo (2391.25) closed yesterday 33 points above its Market Magnet and in real-time is 87 points above its Market Value: neither reading is overly extreme, but far from the mean.
01 Mar '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are 4 up and 4 down on moderate-to-robust volatility: Copper (2.7475) is the upside leader at +1.3% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 104%, followed by the Spoo (2374.25, +0.4%). Weakest is Gold (1241.8, -0.6%) followed by the Bond (150^10, -0.5%) and the EuroCurrencies. Whilst we're not big on Shorting Gold, for the record, the 12-hr. MACD is negative for a Market Rhythm Target (as measured from the open at 1245.9) of 1231.9, (14 points). Pers Inc/Spd: 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
28 Feb '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light with most components mildly higher, the exception being Oil (53.94, -0.2%); the only EDTRs (see Market Ranges) tracing exceeding 50% are those of the Swiss (0.9959, +0.4%) at 89% and the Euro (1.06075, +0.1%) at 55%. Today is "1st Notice" for the Mar Bond (152^29) as the cac volume swings into Jun (151^20, +0.1%). Silver's (18.350, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time +94% having been +80% or higher in 24 of the prior 28 sessions. 2nd peek at Q4 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; ConsConf: 07:00 PT.
27 Feb '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: A muted start to the week for the BEGOS Markets with most EDTR (see Market Trends) tracings sub-50%, the exceptions being Oil (54.42, +0.7%) at 62% and the Euro (1.05120, +0.2%) at 51%; changes are mixed. Copper's (2.6900, +0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is near to crossing negative as are the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), the 21-day linreg trend rotating toward going negative. Silver's (Mar 18.335, -0.1%) cac volume is moving into May (18.390); 1st notice for delivery is tomorrow. Q4 Earnings Season is complete. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
24 Feb '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: On mostly moderate volatility the BEGOS Markets are higher, save for Oil (54.08, -0.5%) and the Spoo (2353.50, -0.4%). Rangiest is Gold (1257.6, +0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 72%, price making a new high for the year along with Silver (18.27, +0.6%); the white metal can see a tug-of-war here as Gold's 12-hr. MACD goes positive but Copper's (Mar 2.6590) daily Parabolics flip to Short; the red metal's cac volume is shifting into May (2.6750). Q4 Earnings Season winds down today with 60% better y-o-y. UofM Sentiment & New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
23 Feb '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: As noted, the Bond's (151^20) Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) was nixed, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed crossing positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is light, and with the exception of Oil (54.26, +0.7%), no other component is presently changed in either direction by > 0.1%. At Market Magnets, only the Spoo's (2361.75) price is excessive, some 31 points "high" as of yesterday's settle; at Market Values, 'tis 73 points "high", albeit that is a broader-based measure which neared 150 points "high" in December. Still, our "live" p/e for the S&P (2362.82) is 34.0x.
22 Feb '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for the narrow trading in the PMs, both Gold (1238.5, +0.1%) and Silver (17.965, +0.1%) with respective EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of just 33% and 30%; most rangy is the Bond (151^21, +0.3%) with an 81% tracing, along with the 12-hr. Price Oscillator provisionally crossing positive, which if confirmed nixes our Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun). We're focused on Silver and the Spoo (2356.50, -0.2%) both for which the "Baby Blues" are +80% and "due" for decline. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
21 Feb '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The double session has pushed BEGOS Markets volatility into the moderate-to robust category, the EuroCurrencies and Oil (54.67) exceeding 100% of their EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the latter being the upside leader at +1.7%; only Copper (2.7415, +1.03%) and the Spoo (2354.00, +0.2%) also are higher, the Euro (1.05420) the weakest at -0.8%. Silver's (17.895) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still firm, however both the white metal and Gold (1231.3) are pressing lower. The Bond's (150^23) Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) remains in place.
20 Feb '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: This 2-day session is thus far mixed for the BEGOS Markets, and volatility is mostly light; oddly with the US bourses closed, the Spoo (2351.00 +0.1%) is the rangiest of the bunch, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 69%. As anticipated in The Gold Update, the precious metals, whilst barely higher, Gold (1237.2) and Silver (17.985) each +0.1%, both have made lows below those of Thu and Fri. The Bond's (151^11, -0.1%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, but less so give the 3-day rally: still, the Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) is being maintained.
17 Feb '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond's (Mar 151^12, Jun 150^02) 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, our Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) still in place; counter to that, the daily Parabolics are flipping to Long, but that study has been sufficiently erratic such as not to be on the Market Rhythms page list. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate at best: Gold (1244.03) is working higher, +0.3%, however Silver (18.04) is -0.3% as Copper (2.6925) is the weakest of the bunch, -0.7%; mind Silver's "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page. Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
16 Feb '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil (Mar 53.41) is up the most, +0.8%, in BEGOS; cac volume is moving into Apr (53.87). The Bond (150^13) is higher, +0.2%, but its 12-hr. Price Oscillator is further negative toward maintaining our Market Rhythm Target on the Jun cac of 147^08. The Spoo (2346.75, -0.2%) has risen 7 straight sessions: the "guesstimate low if a down day" is 2337.50, near Market Profile support at 2335. BEGOS Markets Volatility is light-to-moderate; Copper (2.7320) is weakest, -0.3%. The Swiss (1.0005) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Housing & Philly Fed @ 05:30 PT.
15 Feb '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^15) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed a cross to negative; as noted on our Market Rhythms page, this augurs for a full 2-point move lower (from this session's open of 150^24); however with the pending cac rollover from Mar to Jun, one might consider the latter in this case, for which we'll set a Target of 147^08. All 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, and again, volatility is light. Silver (17.885) is weakest, -0.4%, but still not so much so as to tip over its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). 9 EconBaro metrics hit from 05:30-07:00 PT; Yellen/House: 07:00 PT.
14 Feb '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets Volatility is light, Oil (52.37) the most changed, +0.9%; weakest is the Bond (151^04), -0.1%. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is the Euro (1.06400, +0.3%) at 53%, the Spoo (2326.00 < -0.1%) least so at 28%. Gold's (1230.8, +0.4%) daily Moneyflow (see 10 Feb) is provisionally crossing back above 50 (scale 0-100), as price remains resilient despite yesterday's test of structural support at 1220 (see The Gold Update); Silver (17.910, +0.5%) is still firm, notably as Copper (2.7955, +0.4%) has yet to drop. PPI: 05:30 PT; Yellen/Senate: 07:00 PT.
13 Feb '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythms page is becoming more populated: from late in last year's StateSide election cycle through this year-to-date, the daily list had been shrinking; its expanding now means signal follow-thoughs are becoming more reliable. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate. We're watching for Silver's (17.940) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) to crack, their hovering above the 80% for some 3 weeks, price being firmer than Gold (1231.0), and now aided industrially by strength in Copper (2.7890). Spoo (2317.25) with new highs.
10 Feb '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold (1228.0) having attained the 1240-1280 resistance zone has since pulled back, the daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50 (scale 100-0); should that be confirmed at close, our Market Rhythms page calls for a Target then of some 70 points lower: we think rather that Gold will focus on battling the overhead resistance zone; as well, the 1220 area appears as structural support. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, save for Copper's (2.6715) 110% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Ex/Im pricing: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
09 Feb '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with no one component presently changed > 1% either way, and volatility is moderate. Copper's (2.6680) daily Moneyflow confirmed crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) indicative of a Long signal, which by our Market Rhythms page suggests a Target of 0.0480 ($1,200/cac) points higher (from 2.6385 to 2.6865), but we shan't chase it given the red metal's declining "Baby Blues" and the uncertainties 'round strikes in Chile and Indonesia. The Swiss (1.0016) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 82%. Wholesale Inventories at 07:00 PT.
08 Feb '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold (1240.0) has achieved our anticipated goal of at least reaching the underside of the 1240-1280 resistance zone during the present weekly parabolic Long trend (per The Gold Update of 14 Jan); 2nd to Copper (2.6725, +1.4%), Gold is up the most (+0.4%) of the BEGOS Markets, volatility moderate across the bunch, (save for the red metal's 102% tracing of its EDTR [see Market Ranges] pending a Copper strike [BHP]). EuroCurrencies are weaker, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now accelerating their downside fall. The Bond (152^20, +0.3%) is at a 3-week high.
07 Feb '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.06875) daily Parabolics are flipping to Short, and the Swiss' (1.0026) daily MACD is all but negatively crossed; we're not keen to set Market Rhythm Targets in either case, for as can be seen at that page, neither Rhythm presently is in the list; still, both studies on the daily time-frame are quite visible to traders at large. 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, (the Swiss being the weakest, -0.8%), save for the Spoo (2292.50, +0.3%. Volatility is moderate, albeit the EuroCurrencies have traced > 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Trade Deficit due at 05:30 PT.
06 Feb '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets metals are the session's leaders, Copper (2.6325) +0.7% and both Gold (1228.6) & Silver (17.625) +0.6%. The Gold Update cites the PMs' resilience despite drops in their respective "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends); Gold's high this session (1229) is but 11 points from the 1240-1280 resistance zone which we've been targeting on this parabolic weekly Long trend. Volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro (1.07570) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 62%; as noted, the Euro is nearing its daily parabolic flip-to-short price (currently set at 1.07168).
03 Feb '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: There's weakness across the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil (53.74) and the Spoo (2279.00), both +0.2%; volatility is moderate. The EuroCurrencies are sufficiently weakening such as to watch for a flip in the Euro's (1.07480) daily Parabolics to Short and a negative cross for the Swiss' (1.0052) daily MACD; there is Market Profile resistance for the Euro at 1.07700, yet support for the Swiss at 1.0030; in real-time, both EuroCurrencies have crossed below their Market Magnets, suggestive of lower levels near-term. Payrolls data at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders & ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Feb '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Post-Fed, 'tis all about further Dollar (99.365) fallout, the EuroCurrencies on the rise, as is Oil (54.13, +1.1%), Silver (17.695, +0.9%) and Gold (1223.5, +1.0%), the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 108%; BEGOS Markets volatility is otherwise moderate. Making highs for this year are both Silver and Gold, the latter having seen 1226 this session and seemingly en route to at least the base of the 1240-1280 resistance zone as anticipated during this parabolic Long trend on the weekly bars per The Gold Update. Q4 Productivity (Prelim) due at 05:30 PT.
01 Feb '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with most components presently little changed either way, save for Oil (53.20), +0.8%. Rangiest is Copper (2.7135) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%. At Market Values, none of the primary components are in an excessive stance, and notably for Gold (1213.0), despite its strength these last few days, price is only 7 points above its Market Magnet, (an extreme reading is more on the order of 50 points distance). A busy session of incoming data: ADP: 05:15PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction: 07:00; FOMC (no change): 11:00 PT.
31 Jan '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Straightway we're nixing Silver's (17.395) Market Rhythm Target of 16.870, price's upside whip having now provisionally flipped the daily Parabolics to Long; with the FOMC in tomorrow's balance, we'll take pause as regards a higher Target, especially with the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in decline; amongst the BEGOS Markets, Silver is also the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 118%; volatility for the balance of the up bunch is moderate; only Oil (52.53) and the Spoo (2273.25) are barely in the red. ECI: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; ConsConf: 07:00 PT.
30 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: As noted, the daily Parabolics for Silver (17.115) confirmed the flip to Short to give us a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's open at 17.170) of 16.870. Gold's (1189.8) cac volume is moving from Feb (1st notice for delivery is tomorrow) into Apr (1192.5). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Euro (1.06525) which has traced 121% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update notes the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the 3 BEGOS Metals and 2 EuroCurrencies all curling lower. Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT; Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
27 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.725) daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short, which would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 0.300 points ($1,500/cac) lower from the opening price of the next session (Sunday, 15:00 PT). The BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate. The declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their falls for both Silver and Gold (1183.0); those for the EuroCurrencies as well as for Copper (2.6770) are just beginning to curl over to the downside from their +80 levels. 1st peek at Q4 GDP due @ 05:30 along with Durable Orders.
26 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss (1.0051) and Spoo (2294.50), the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower; volatility is moderate, the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being that for Gold (1187.7) at 97%. Again, this pullback in both Gold and Silver (16.810) is coincident with their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling over; those for the Bond (149^05) have been dropping for better than a week, and per our 19 Jan comment, the 148s have now been touched (low 148^30). The Spoo's daily MACD is turning positive, but we shan't chase it. LEI/New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
25 Jan '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: That of which we've been wary, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the PMs are in real-time kinking down following their multi-week up run; this does not preclude Gold's (1205.2) being able to reach at least 1240 per the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend, (which presently has room down to 1129 to remain Long), but the incipient falling of the blue dots can herald some near-term pullback. Silver (16.975), -0.8% and with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 102%, is both the weakest and rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, which are otherwise are mixed with moderate volatility.
24 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on mostly moderate volatility. Separately, the Dollar (100.305) is modestly higher, which if maintained, would be just the 5th up day for the Buck through 16 sessions year-to-date; further rising could finally knock down the high levels of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the PMs and EuroCurrencies; the "Baby Blues" for the Bond (151^18) continue to drop, albeit its daily MACD is flattening more than making a decisive negative cross. At Market Profiles, the Spoo's (2261.75) dominant trading handle is 2265. Existing Homes come due at 07:00 PT.
23 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, 6 of the 8 higher, led by Copper (2.6400), +0.9%; weakest is Oil (52.62), -1.2%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the Bond (150^26) are furthering their fall, price on Friday having gone sub-150. The Gold Update points to price's (1213.1) having risen for 4 straight weeks sufficient to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long, the typical follow-through suggestive of a move at least up to the lower boundary of the 1240-1280 resistance zone; still, mind too the lofty levels of the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver (17.170).
20 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: As the Bond's (150^05) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop, the daily MACD is approaching a negative cross, (albeit that study had not recently qualified to make our Market Rhythms list). But the same study for Copper (2.6045) is on the list and also is approaching a negative cross; the red metal's "Baby Blues" may ratchet lower in a day or 2. Save for Oil (52.87) and the Spoo (2265.50), the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, and volatility is moderate. Rangiest is the Bond with a 79% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, followed by Silver (16.945) at 71%.
19 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, presently with little change either way; volatility is moderate, the 3 metals having shown the most movement of the bunch. As noted, we've now got the Bond's (151^15) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling downward, the chart suggestive of a run down into the 148s. Similar blue dot drops from high levels may be in store for the PMs: Gold's (1203.5) "live" Baby Blue is +95%, whilst that for Silver (16.995) is +89%; still, with Gold's weekly parabolic trend now Long, we're eying 1240. ECB @ 04:45 PT; Housing/Philly Fed/Draghi @ 05:30 PT.
18 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo's (2263.50) being +0.1%, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are down, lead by Oil (Feb 51.70), for which the cac volume is moving into Mar (52.54), -1.5%; 'tis also leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90%; otherwise, volatility is mostly moderate. Mind the Bond (152^23), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time just kinking lower, albeit still above the +80% level; that said, at Market Values, the Bond is well in line with its smooth valuation line. CPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
17 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues, the effect being a robust volatility reading for the BEGOS Markets, and which at present are bouncing about as Theresa May speaks on Brexit. Gold (1214.2) remains the leader, +1.4%, clearly satisfying our Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3, yet we're still eying 1240; but Copper (2.6405) is now the weakest, -2.4% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 176%; the red metal was getting high vs. its Market Magnet. Only the Spoo (2262.75), too, is lower at -0.4%, the balance of the bunch all higher. NY Empire comes due @ 05:30 PT.
16 Jan '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: This Sunday-Tuesday GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets mixed and volatility moderate. Gold (1204.1) is leading both by gain, +0.6%, and by EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, 72%; as anticipated in The Gold Update, the overnight high of 1208.7 was sufficient to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long, which in turn opens the door for a run up to at least the bottom of the 1240-1280 resistance zone; obviously en route, the Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3 would be hit as 'twas signaled by the daily Price Oscillator, (see 10 Jan). Oil (52.15) is weakest of the bunch, -0.7%.
13 Jan '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with changes fairly modest either way, save for Oil (52.43) -1.1%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%; quietest is the Spoo (2265.50) with just a 22% tracing. At Market Trends, Gold's (1197.5) "Baby Blues" have stretched (in real-time) above +80%; only those for the Bond (152^29) are as high, both markets having put in solid 21-day linreg uptrends, (with the balance of the other 6 components all still tilting upward as well). PPI/Retail Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment/BusInvs: 07:00PT.
12 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 3 metals components of BEGOS are the session's leaders, with Gold (1204.6),Silver (16.940) and Copper (2.6280) all +1.1%. The yellow metal's high (1207.2) is near to its Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3, the daily Price Oscillator still positive and growing, as are the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). The balance of the bunch are also higher, ex-the Spoo (2263.75) -0.3%. The 21-day linreg trends of all 8 markets are positive at the expense of the Dollar (100.840) which year-to-date has essentially been falling. Ex/Im Pricing due @ 05:30 PT; Treasury Budget due @ 11:00 PT.
11 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility is light-to-moderate; no one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.5%. Gold's (1188.4) daily Price Oscillator is growing to the positive side, the Market Rhythm Target in place at 1209.3; Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have room to further ascend, whilst at Market Values, price has only just returned up to its smooth valuation line, (albeit at Market Magnets, Gold might appear momentarily a bit high, but not to the extent 'twas when to the downside). Our Earnings Season page is characterizing the data from Q4.
10 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5700) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally swung to positive, calling for a nix of our 2.4470 Market Rhythm Target. Gold's (1185.0) daily Price Oscillator confirmed its swing to positive, giving us Target of 1209.3, ($2,800/cac as measured from this session's open of 1181.3). BEGOS Markets volatility is again light-to-moderate, Copper the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%, with price up the most at +1.5%. 7 of the 8 components are higher, save for the Bond (152^20) which is just off at -0.1%. Whole Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
09 Jan '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (152^12) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 70%. Gold (1179.6) is firmest +0.6%, and Oil (53.01) weakest -1.3%. Despite some recent buoyancy, Copper's (2.5320) daily Price Oscillator is still negative, so we still maintain its Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. The same study for Gold has provisionally crossed to positive: should that confirm at today's close, we'd be targeting a further 28 points higher ($2,800/cac) as measured from the next opening (today at 15:00 PT). Consumer Credit due @ 12:00 PT.
06 Jan '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5310) daily Price Oscillator remains to the negative side such that the Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470 is still intact; but the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now on the rise from the -80% level, a portent of higher prices ahead. Conversely, the Spoo's (2263.50) "Baby Blues" continue their slide, with price itself having yet to crack, but 'twould appear due. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, save for Silver (16.525) which has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Payrolls and Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
05 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Oil (53.80) swiftly met our fresh Market Rhythm Target of 52.20; Copper's (2.5570) Target of 2.4470 is still on the table given the ongoing negative daily Price Oscillator; Gold's (1174.1) daily moneyflow continues its advance above the 50 level, price having already all but touched the suggested 1180s. Gold and Silver (16.620) are both the BEGOS Markets leaders, each +0.8%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 118%. The Spoo (2260.25) is the weakest link, -0.2%. ADP is due @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) is due @ 07:00 PT.
04 Jan '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, all of which are higher save for the Bond (150^19) which is a pip below "unch". The leaders are both Silver (16.480) and Copper (2.5075), both +0.8%. Still, the red metal's daily Price Oscillator is negative, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. Oil's (52.64) daily Moneyflow continues sub-50 (scale 100-0), so its Target of 52.20 is in place. The same study for Gold (1165.3) has crossed above 50, suggestive of the 1180s; the foot of our Gold page presently highlights that study. FOMC Minutes (14 Dec) @ 11:00 PT.
03 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Another trading year commences with the usual robust volatility for the BEGOS Markets, with the EuroCurrencies, Bond (149^07), and Gold (1149.0) lower, and the industrial metals, Oil (54.91) and the Spoo (2254.50) higher. However, Oil's daily Moneyflow has confirmed a sub-50 downside crossing (scale 100-0) to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 52.20; at Market Values, Oil shows as some 5 full points "high". Copper's (2.5280) Target of 2.4470 remains in place given the still negative daily Price Oscillator. ISM(Mfg) & Construction kick off the year's EconBaro data at 07:00 PT.
30 Dec '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As anticipated, the Spoo's (2248.25, +0.1%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed crossing to negative; again whilst not on the present Market Rhythms list, the prior two crossings had better than 100 points of follow-through; Copper's 2.5055, +0.8%) daily Price Oscillator remains negative, the 2.4470 Market Rhythm Target still intact; and Gold's (1159.9, +0.1%) daily Moneyflow has provisionally crossed above 50 (scale 0-100) which suggests a move of some 70 points higher. Final year's day BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-robust. Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT. Bonne Année!
29 Dec '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Driving toward/through year-end, we're watching the 12-hr. Price Oscillator on the Spoo (2246.25, +0.1%) as 'tis within a session or 2 of crossing negative; said Market Rhythm is not presently on that page's list, due to whipsawing either side of 0 through out Oct, but its last 2 crossings have led to 100 further points of travel, of which there ought be plenty into the New Year. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and all 8 are higher, led by Silver (16.165, +0.7%) and Oil (53.99, +0.6%); the Swiss (0.9802, +0.3%) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 84%.
28 Dec '16, 04:16 Pacific Time: On mostly moderate volatility, the BEGOS Markets have a mild downside bias, the exceptions being Oil (54.11, +0.4%) and the Spoo (2266.25, +0.3%). Weakest is Copper (2.4955, -1.1%) for which the daily Price Oscillator remains negative and thus the Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470 still in place. The Euro (1.04615, -0.4%) is the rangiest with a 72% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. At Market Values, the extremes for both Gold (1139.0, "unch" and the Spoo have begun to unwind, but still are excessive, (Gold 70 pts "low", the Spoo 60 pts "high"). Pending Homes at 07:00 PT.
27 Dec '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.4735, -0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is notched further negative toward keeping our Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470; at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" continue their tumble. But the PMs are the session's best BEGOS Markets performers, with Silver (16.030, +1.6%) and Gold (1144.02, +0.8%), such direction of note given the Bond (148^28, +0.1%) and EuroCurrencies are working lower. Volatility is mostly light, save for the PMs, the EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracings at 137% for Gold and 86% for Silver. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
23 Dec '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Copper (2.4980, -0.4%) finally confirmed its negative crossing, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. Oil's (54.35. -0.6%) daily Moneyflow is provisionally crossing the sub-50 level (scale 100-0), which if confirmed would give us a Target from the next session's open (Mon, 15:00 PT) of 2.00 points lower ($2,000/cac). The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed and volatility is light. Again, per Market Values, the "high" excess remains for the Spoo (2258.25 "unch") as does the "low" excess for Gold (1133.0, +0.3%). New Homes at 07:00 PT. Merry/Happy All !
22 Dec '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.4715, -0.9%) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative; should it so be at session's end, we'd get a Market Rhythm Target of 0.060 points lower ($1,500/cac) from the opening price of the Fri session (at 15:00 PT today); Copper is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are down, save for the EuroCurrencies; volatility is light-to-moderate, with Copper leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 64%, followed by Silver (15.89, -0.5%) with a 54% tracing. Incoming EconBaro data includes Final Q3 GDP, Personal Inc/Spd & PCE, Durables, and LEI.
21 Dec '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: In a reversal of yesterday, 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently in the black, albeit net changes in either direction are muted and volatility is mostly light. Rangiest is the Swiss (0.9807, +0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%; most docile are both Oil (53.65, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2264.50, -0.1%) with EDTR tracings of just 22%. Copper's (2.5090, +0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is all but a positive nub; at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" continue to drop. 11 EconBaro metrics are due the next 3 days, starting with Existing Homes today at 07:00 PT.
20 Dec '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently in the red, the weakest being Silver (15.870, -0.9%) and Gold (1134.2, -0.5%); still not helping Silver is Copper (2.4975, -0.2%); in realtime, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both the white and red metals are now sub-0%. Still, Copper's daily Price Oscillator has yet to break into the negative side despite its trending in that direction; its current signaling record is listed at Market Rhythms. At Market Values, Gold is running 100 points "too low" and the Spoo (2264.75, +0.2%) 100 points "too high". Up the most is Oil (53.36, +0.4%).
19 Dec '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) with no one changed presently by more than 1% either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. Weakest is Copper (2.5250, -0.9%), which as described in The Gold Update has its "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) in accelerative free-fall, in turn boding negatively for Silver (16.07, -0.4%) should Gold (1140.0, +0.3%) not materially firm. Tis a wee gain on the day for the yellow metal, but 'tis the upside leader. Yet at the moment, the white metal's "Baby Blues" are set to go sub-0% and price is below its Market Profile supporter of 16.10.
16 Dec '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (2.5735, -0.9%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs (Silver 16.145, +0.8%), (Gold 1136.5, +0.5%) and the Bond (148^30, +0.5%); volatility is moderate. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9776, tar 1.0038) was nixed yesterday, the daily MACD confirming a cross to negative. Copper's daily Price Oscillator continues to decline, but has yet to cross negative; the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are extending their fall. EuroCurrencies rolling into Mar; Oil (Feb 52.35) cac volume rolling to Feb. Housing @ 05:30 PT.
15 Dec '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As put (12 Dec) Gold (1132.6, -1.0%/GLOBEX or -2.7%/COMEX) is continuing to giving ups its gains for 2016, now year-to-date +6.8% vs. 29.9% back on 06 Jul; The Gold Update has noted the dearth of support sub-1190. On the day, weaker still is Silver (16.245, -3.8%/GLOBEX or -5.7%/COMEX). 4 of the 8 BEGOS Markets have exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), namely the PMs and the EuroCurrencies; only higher of note is Oil (51.00, +0.5%). 13-year Dollar (103.025) high. CPI, Philly Fed, NY Empire, Q3 Current Acct all @ 5:30 PT; NAHB @ 07:00.
14 Dec '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, save for Copper (2.6050, +0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 102%, 2nd comes Silver's (17.180, +1.3%) tracing of 67%; narrowest is the Spoo's (2268.50, "unch") at just 20%. The Swiss (0.9908, +0.3%) is maintaining its positive daily MACD, keeping the 1.0038 Market Rhythm Target intact. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are accelerating more to the downside, (daily Price Oscillator is still positive). Retail Sales/PPI: 05:30PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; BusInv: 07:00 PT; Fed Hike: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
13 Dec '16, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are narrowing, the FOMC 2-day meeting starting today; components are mixed, and save for the Spoo's (2256.25, +0.3%) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 58%, the balance are all sub-50%; firmest again is Oil (53.33, +1.7%) and weakest is Gold (1160.6, -0.3%). Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9879, tar 1.0038) remains alive as the daily MACD is still positive; also we're eying Copper's (2.6240, +0.7%) daily Price Oscillator as it trends toward crossing to negative; prudence is warranted given the FOMC tomorrow. Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT.
12 Dec '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Gold Update cites concern for Gold (1157.7, -0.3%) conceivably giving up its gains for the year, (albeit it settled last week +10% net in 2016, still the best performance in six years); of late, Silver (16.945, +0.2%) has been the firmer of the 2 PMs. BEGOS Market volatility is moderate, the exception being Oil's (53.81, +4.5%) having traced 106% of its EDTR, Russia jumping on the supply cut bandwagon. The Bond (147^22, -0.5%) is the weakest if the bunch. The Swiss' (0.9868, +0.2%) daily MACD remains on the positive side, the Market Rhythm Target thus still intact for 1.0038.
09 Dec '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9820, -0.2%) daily MACD is weakening such that it looks to go negative prior to reaching our Market Rhythm Target of 1.0038, (provisionally, that MACD is still positive such as to not formally nix the Target); but the Swiss' daily Parabolics would flip to Short at 0.9809. The Bond (149^01, -0.3%), EuroCurrencies and PMs are lower; Copper (2.6475, +0.8%) is firmest followed by Oil (51.24, +0.5%) and the Mar Spoo (2243.50, just above "unch"); BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate. Whole Inventories and UofM Sentiment both due at 07:00 PT.
08 Dec '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: Volatility is more moderate than 'twas at this time yesterday for the BEGOS Markets, albeit the quietest of the bunch is Gold (1178.6, +0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 27%. Oil (50.24) is the firmest component, +0.8%, whilst weakest is the Bond (150^18), -0.5%. At Market Values, the Spoo (Dec 2237.50, Mar 2232.00) is at its most overvalued reading (+133 points) in more than 2 years, (after which the S&P fell some 5% within 3 weeks during 2014 from late Nov into Dec); our "live" p/e of the S&P is 34.1x. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT.
07 Dec '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Again, BEGOS Markets volatility is, at best, light, the one exception being Copper (2.6855, 0.6%), up the most of the bunch, and sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 59%. Only Oil (50.70, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2209.75, -0.1%) are mildly in the red. At Market Values, the Spoo remains 100+ points high above its smooth valuation line, albeit at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" have steadied a bit from their otherwise new decline. The Swiss' (0.9907, +0.1%) daily MACD remains positive, keeping in place the 1.0038 Market Rhythm Target. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
06 Dec '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: Subtle across the board are the BEGOS Markets with no one component presently off by more than 0.4% either way; volatility is light. Rangiest of the bunch is the Euro (1.07395, -0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 48%. The Swiss' (0.9918, -0.2%) daily MACD has confirmed going positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0038; we've been anticipative of the Spoo's (2204.25, "unch") 12-hr. Price Oscillator going negative, but is hasn't (yet) occurred; again, keep an eye on the Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; FactOrdrs: 07:00 PT.
05 Dec '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: As if 'twas already priced in, the market responses to Italy's "No!" vote have reversed, and then some, producing robust volatility for the BEGOS components, the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) for 4 of 8 them exceeding 100%; not surprisingly, rangiest is the Euro (1.07055, +0.3%) with a 222% tracing. The Swiss' (0.9905, +0.1%) daily MACD has provisionally gone positive, (watch for a Market Rhythm Target). Strongest is Copper (2.6615, +1.3%); weakest is Gold (1168.4, -0.9%). At Market Trends, mind the Spoo's (2201.50, +0.5%) falling "Baby Blues". ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
02 Dec '16, 04:17 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is fairly light with all of the components lower by less than 1%, save for the Bond (149^29, +0.4%). Rangiest is Silver (16.440, -0.7%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 78%. The Spoo's (2186.50, -0.2%)"Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have broken below their +80% level, a harbinger of lower prices at least near term; at Market Values, the Spoo has been over 100 points above its smooth valuation line since 21 Nov until this morning (presently +99); the Spoo's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is barely positive and declining. Payrolls data due @ 5:30 PT.
01 Dec '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^13, -0.4%) Market Rhythm Target of 154^14 is quickly nixed as the daily MACD whips back to negative; the Target for Oil (cur 50.01, +2.1%, tar 49.80) has been met, price trading back in the 50s for the 1st time since 28 Oct. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate; weakest is Silver (16.440, -0.7%), whilst Gold (1171.8, -0.3%) has traded sub-1170 for the 1st time since early Feb. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" of downtrend consistency for the Bond, PMs and EuroCurrencies all are below -80%. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
30 Nov '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: OPEC swirlings have Oil (49.04, +8.4%) strongly up and sporting the largest of the BEGOS Markets' EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 215%; the balance of the bunch are mixed on moderate volatility; Oil's daily positive MACD is being reinforced, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 49.80. The Bond (Mar 151^31, -0.6%) confirmed its positive MACD crossing for a Target of 154^14. The Spoo's (2209.00, +0.2%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator is nearing negative, and the Euro's (1.06430, -0.1%) daily Parabolics are nearing Long. Busy EconData data day; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
29 Nov '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2204.00, +0.2%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is mainly moderate. Off the most is Oil (46.21, -1.5%), however its daily MACD remains positive, thus maintaining the Market Rhythm Target of 49.80. Rangiest is Copper (2.6300, -1.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 83%; most docile is the Bond (153^20, -0.1%) with just a 25% tracing; the Bond's daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive, which if confirmed ought present a new Target. Q3 2nd GDP read: 05:30PT; Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
28 Nov '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (2.7060, +0.5%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 119%. The upside leader is Silver (16.680, +1.0%), to the downside 'tis the Spoo (2204.75, -0.3%). The Gold Update points to Gold's (1189.5, +0.5%) further downside susceptibility in last week's breaking sub-1199 to as low as 1170; thus the firming to start the new week is a welcome positive for the present. Oil's (45.85, -0.2%) daily MACD is still positive, so the 49.80 Market Rhythm Target is intact. A busy EconData week after today.
25 Nov '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Wed-Fri GLOBEX session continues with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings suggestive of moderate volatility across the BEGOS board. Gone is Oil's (47.39, -1.1%) gain from yesterday, yet the daily MACD remains positive such as to maintain the Market Rhythm Target of 49.80. Gold's (1188.7, +0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics have their hurdle price to go Long presently at 1197. At Market Values, the Spoo (2205.00, +0.2%) is at its highest level above its smooth valuation line in over a year (121 points in real-time). All BEGOS products cease today's trading at either 10:15 PT or 10:45 PT.
24 Nov '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis Thanksgiving, but the dual-day GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets with light-to-moderate volatility, having 4 components up and 4 down. Leading to the upside is Copper (2.6575, +1.6%), the red metal also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%. Off the most is Silver (16.295, -0.3%). Least rangy is the Spoo (2202.25, +0.1%) with a 21% EDTR tracing. Oil's (48.21, +0.6%) Market Rhythm Target is in place at 49.80. The PM's fallout has kept Gold's (1186.2, -0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics from flipping to Long. Trading Halt: 10:00 PT-15:00 PT.
23 Nov '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is at best light across the BEGOS Markets and changes are muted; EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are narrow as well. For the StateSide physical bourses, this is the week's last full session (Fri's is abbreviated); Fri's GLOBEX session begins today (Wed) at 15:00 PT, halting tomorrow (Thu) from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT. Oil's (47.90) Market Rhythm Target of 49.80 is intact given the positive daily MACD. As noted, we're watching for Gold's (1210.1) 12-hr. Parabolics look to flip Long, the hurdle now at 1218. Durables: 08:30 PT; New Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
22 Nov '16, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2199.00, +0.2%) has crossed above 2200 for the 1st time ever; given "fair value" is -2.63, at present the S&P (2198.18) would trade atop 2200 for its 1st time as well. The BEGOS Markets have a mild upside bias with volatility moderate. Oil (48.25, -0.2%) has traded as high as 49.20, its Market Rhythm Target per the positive daily MACD crossing being 49.80. The PMs are firming so far into the week: Gold's (1216.6, +0.2%) 12-hr. Parabolics look to flip Long should 1225 trade which ought then present a Target of 12 upside points from confirm. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
21 Nov '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility light-to-moderate in starting this abbreviated StateSide trading week (3 1/2 days for the physical bourses). Copper (2.5155) and Oil (47.20) are the upside leaders, both +1.9%; least up is the Swiss (0.9919) +0.1%. Copper is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%. As noted (17 Nov), Oil has since confirmed a positive crossing on its daily MACD to give us a Market Rhythm Target (basis Jan) of 49.80, (ideally from this session's open of 46.60, for $3,200/cac). At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their ascent.
18 Nov '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are little changed to mildly lower on fairly light volatility, again save for Oil (Jan 46.14, +1.4%) as its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to ascend; Oil leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 70%. The PMs in spending the week trying to firm having now broken below last week's lows, albeit Gold (1211.1, -0.4%) is well off this session's low of 1201.3; the PMs' "Baby Blues" remain falling. At Market Values, the Spoo (2172.75, -0.1%) is the highest its been above its smooth line valuation line since 01 Dec of last year.
17 Nov '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The net changes in BEGOS Markets are muted and volatility is light-to-moderate; the exception is Oil (Jan 46.85, +2.2%), which also has the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 68%; cac volume is rolling from Dec into Jan, (1st notice is Tue, 22 Nov); as noted, Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling to the upside, plus the daily MACD is very near to crossing positive, which upon confirmation looks to set up a Market Rhythm Target of some 3 full points higher. CPI, Housing data and the Philly Fed all due @ 05:30 PT. Then comes Yellen (JECC) @ 07:00 PT.
16 Nov '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red and volatility is moderate. Off the most is Oil (45.20, -1.2%) and rangiest is the Bond (153^23, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%. At Market Values, the Bond appears near an "extreme" low vis-à-vis it smooth valuation line, whilst the Spoo (2171.75, -0.3%) appears near an "extreme"high. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have just started an upward curl (from -90% on the web page to -85% in real-time). The EuroCurrencies are at multi-month lows. PPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
15 Nov '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Only 1 BEGOS component is in the red, Copper (2.4750, -1.7%), the red metal also sporting the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 173%; with the balance of the bunch up, their volatility is tamer, at best moderate. Up the most is Oil (44.69, +2.2%), its EDTR tracing being 95%. The Spoo (2163.25, +0.1%) has traded but 1 point below its largest Market Profile supporter of 2160; were that level to notably break, further Profile support lies in the 2140-2136 area. 3 days of EconData begins: Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing & NY Empire @ 05:30 PT, then BusInvs @ 07:00 PT.
14 Nov '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: The PMs are steading themselves, albeit both Gold (1222.8, -0.4%) and Silver (17.185, -1.0%) have marginally punched through their prior week's low (of 1218.7 & 17.170); The Gold Update depicts the topping of the "Baby Blues", yet emphasizes "zany" markets ahead with the 14 Dec FOMC statement in the balance. The BEGOS Markets are lower, save for Copper (2.5532, +1.9%) which low-high last week was +21.2, and a lightly higher Spoo (2163.25, +0.1%). Robust volatility is led by Copper's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 167% and that for the Bond (153^23) at 132%.
11 Nov '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate amongst the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper (2.6840), which has had but 1 down day in the last 15, and with a post-election push, is now (from its 21 October close of 2.0885) +28%; in this session, the red metal is +5.7% and has traced 371% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). All of the other components are presently changed by less than 1% either way. Silver's (18.595) industrial metal side has, thanks to Copper, kept its level buoyed, whilst Gold (1257.8) has sunk back into the midst of its 1280-1240 support zone. UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT.
10 Nov '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility robust. At our Market Ranges page, the sharp spikes in EDTRs suggest very rangy days at least over the near-term. At Market Trends, we're mindful that the "Baby Blues" for the PMs may breakdown from here to again test the near-term support in the Market Profiles for both Gold (cur 1281.6) and Silver (cur 18.730). The highest trade ever on the S&P (2163.26) is 2193.81 (15 Aug): the Spoo (2172.50) would presently see the S&P open to 2177; given the Spoo's EDTR is 31 points, a new high may be nigh. Treasury Budget: 11:00 PT.
09 Nov '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2093.00, -2.0%) went limit down overnight (low 2028.50, -5.0%). BEGOS Markets volatility is extreme, but most of the components have come well back toward the center of their session ranges. The Spoo remains the weakest of the bunch, followed by the Bond (159^23, -1.5%); Oil is justly mildly off (44.70, -0.3%). The balance are all higher, led by Gold (1301.9), Silver (18.740) and Copper (2.4235) each +2.0%. The largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings are the Spoo @ 601%, the Bond @ 501% and Gold @ 471%. Wholesale Inventories come due at 07:00 PT.
08 Nov '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are presently off, but none by more than -0.7%, that being Copper (2.2960); mildly up are the Bond (162^31, +0.2%) and Silver (18.185, +0.1%); the white metal's 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: were that to confirm come 12:00 PT, a Market Rhythm Target could then be set for 0.340 points ($1,700/cac) lower, but caution is warranted (on any component's unhedged/unprotected position) given Markets' responding to incoming Election Day data, be it from exit polling during the RTH sessions or from results during the evening.
07 Nov '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets significantly gapped one way or the other at the open (Sun. 15:00 PT), moving beyond either their "high if an up day" or "low if a down day" guesstimates vis-à-vis their respective EDTRs (see Market Ranges). To the upside are Oil (44.79, +1.5%), Copper (2.2880, +1.3%) & the Spoo (2107.25, +1.2%). Weakest is Gold (1288.2, -1.3%). As detailed in The Gold Update, the S&P (2085.18, but would open now 'round 2112) was down for 9 straight days, tying the record since 1980. A light data week begins with Consumer Credit at 12:00 PT.
04 Nov '16, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are barely unchanged either way, volatility being mostly light. Again, the PMs are the rangiest, Gold (1302.7, -0.1%) sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 69% and Silver (18.345, -0.1%) a 59% tracing. At Market Trends, the PMs "Baby Blues" are the most upside-impressive of the bunch, yet further at Market Values, Gold is not excessively high above its valuation line, although we're a bit sensitive to price's distance above its Market Magnet. The S&P (2088.66) has posted 8 straight down days. Payrolls and Trade Deficit due at 05:30 PT.
03 Nov '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: The PMs have had a strong near-term up run, but are the weakest of the 8 BEGOS Markets: Silver (18.120) is -2.0% and Gold (1291.4) is -0.5%; the upside leaders are Oil (45.77, +0.6%) and Copper (2.3305, +0.5%). Volatility is moderate-to-robust, the rangiest being Silver by its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 165%, followed by Gold's 146% tracing; Oil is the most docile with a 38% tracing. The Eurocurrencies, by their Market Magnets, appear at near-term high extremes. EconBaro data includes: Q3 Productivity at 05:30 PT, plus Factory Orders and ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Nov '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0309, tar 1.0231) was swiftly achieved; today, the EuroCurrencies, PMs and Treasuries are being bid higher still. At Market Values, Gold (1296.6) has finally returned (in real-time) to its smooth valuation line for the first time since 30 Sep, (after which came the early Oct selloff); at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver (18.505) are leaping (in real-time) into positive territory, whilst those for Oil (45.95) continue to fall. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate. ADP @ 05:15 PT; FOMC "no-go" statement @ 11:00 PT.
01 Nov '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0182) daily MACD has confirmed an upside cross for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0231 (ideally from 1.0135, this session's opening price). BEGOS Markets volatility is picking up, running moderate-to robust. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is Silver (18.190, +1.6%) at 118%, followed by the Swiss (+0.5%) at 108% and then Gold (1286.9, +0.7%) at 89%. In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above the 0% axis for both Gold & Silver, the 21-day linreg trends swinging up. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Oct '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: As expected, the Bond's (162^10) Market Rhythm Target of 165^23 was nixed, as was that for Copper (cur 2.1915, tar 2.0570). Per the 27 Oct comment, the Swiss' (1.0137) daily MACD is now provisionally crossing positive; if confirmed today, an upside Target of 0.0096 ($1,200/cac) would be added to the next session's opening price. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on moderate volatility in starting a busy economic week of 20 EconBaro metrics, (plus a "no-go" FOMC statement come Wed). Personal Inc/Spd & PCE Inflation due @ 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: due @ 06:45 PT.
28 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond's (162^11) daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative; upon day's end confirmation, 'twould nix our Market Rhythm Target of 165^23; Copper's (2.1755) daily Price Oscillator remains barely negative, but as noted, its Target of 2.0570 faces nixing as well. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, and all 8 components presently are little changed either way, the best being Copper +0.5%, the weakest being Oil (49.46) -0.3%. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the PMs continue their ascents, whilst those for Oil continue to plummet. 1st peek at Q3 GDP @ 05:30 PT.
27 Oct '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: Our open Market Rhythm Targets for both Copper (cur 2.1615, tar 2.0570) and the Bond (cur 162^27, tar 165^23) are both looking to get nixed, the red metal's still-negative daily Price Oscillator becoming less so, and the Bond's still-positive daily MACD trending toward a downside cross. We're watching for the Swiss' (1.0110) daily MACD to turn positive perhaps by week's end for a fresh Target. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, save for Copper which has traced 116% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). PMs appear firm. Durables due at 05:30 PT; Pending Homes at 07:00 PT.
26 Oct '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's up-spike, Copper (2.1380) has stalled: its daily Price Oscillator is still to the negative side such, that for now, our Market Rhythm Target of 2.0570 remains in place. The Bond's (164^09) daily MACD continues as positive, keeping the Target of 165^23 intact there. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on mostly moderate volatility; the largest present change is Silver's (17.675) being -0.5%; Oil (49.24, -0.1%) is sporting the narrowest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at just 27%; the Swiss' (1.0114. +0.3%) has the widest at 89%. New Homes due @ 07:00 PT.
25 Oct '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1380) is up sharply, +2.0%, and leads the otherwise moderate BEGOS Markets' EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 165%; the up move is not enough to nix our Market Rhythm Target of 2.0570, the daily Price Oscillator still well-negative. Silver (17.740) made its Target (17.875) yesterday; that for the Bond (cur 163^28, tar 165^23) remains intact per the positive daily MACD; the Bond and EuroCurrencies are lightly weaker. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to curl higher; those for Oil (20.75) are notably falling. Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
24 Oct '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed on moderate volatility, Oil (50.48) off the most at -1.0%, Silver (17.630) up the most at +0.6%; rangiest is the Spoo (2144.00, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 65%. Our three open Market Rhythm Targets remain as follows: Silver (tar 17.875), Copper (cur 2.0920, tar 2.0570) and the Bond (cur 165^03, tar 165^23). The Gold Update specifies the upward curling of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as a buy signal for both Gold (1264.8) and Silver. Q3 Earnings Season off to a more robust start this time 'round.
21 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond's (164^23) daily MACD has confirmed as positive, (as have the daily Parabolics flipped to Long), for a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's opening of 164^13) of 165^23. Targets remain in place for Silver (cur 17.510, tar 17.875) and Copper (cur 2.0995, tar 2.0570). The BEGOS markets are little changed and volatility is light-to-moderate: Oil (50.87) is up the most at +0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.09155, -0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 71%. Again, we're watching the PMs' "Baby Blues" curl higher at Market Trends. We've no scheduled EconBaro data.
20 Oct '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are turning higher for the 1st time in basically 1 month; this ought bode well for Silver's (17.645) Market Rhythm Target of 17.875, in concert with its positive 12-hr. MACD. Copper's (2.0945) daily MACD has worked lower still, its Target of 2.0570 being maintained. The Bond's (164^06) daily Parabolics remain near to flipping Long (at 164^30), plus the daily MACD there is close as well to turning positive. The BEGOS Markets on balance are lightly volatile. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi, plus Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Existing Homes and LEI: 07:00 PT.
19 Oct '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets which are basically "unch"-to-higher, the Dollar (97.780) seemingly having run out of puff in its last 3 sessions. Gold (1270.5) and Silver (17.720) are firming further following their sell-off of 2 weeks ago: both PMs have climbed above their largest resistors (1257 Gold, 17.50 Silver) per our Market Profiles. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both Silver (tar 17.875) and Copper (cur 2.1010, tar 2.0570). Nearing is a daily Parabolic flip to Long for the Bond (164^13, flip 165^12). Housing: 05:30 PT; Fed Book: 11:00 PT.
18 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Silver (17.655, +1.0%) is stepping up toward getting to its Market Rhythm Target of 17.875, the 12-hr. MACD at its highest level since going positive last Wednesday. Copper (2.1110, +0.3%), whilst higher, finds its daily Price Oscillator as its lowest level since last Friday, the Target thus still in place there for 2.0570. Oil's (Dec 50.82, +0.9%) cac volume has shifted from Nov, for which 1st notice for deliver is next Monday (24 Oct). Save for the Swiss (1.0140) which is close to "unch", the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate. CPI: 05:30 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
17 Oct '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for Silver (cur 17.430, tar 17.875) is still alive given the positive stance of the 12-hr. MACD. As anticipated, Copper's (2.1125) daily Price Oscillator confirmed going negative at Friday's close; we've set a Target for the red metal of 2.0570. 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, save for the Spoo (2123.50, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate. The PMs continue to firm, The Gold Update noting Gold's (1254.6) weekly trading range going from the year's widest down move 2 weeks ago to its least last week. NY Empire: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT.
14 Oct '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Silver's (17.515) Market Rhythm Target of 17.875 remains in play, the 12-hr. MACD becoming more positive. Copper's (2.1195) daily MACD has provisionally crossed negative: if confirmed by day's end, we'd look for a Target some 0.0600 points ($1,500) lower from Sunday's opening level (at 15:00 PT). The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and volatility is light-to-moderate; Oil (51.00) is the upside leader at +0.9%, whilst the Bond (163^29) leads to the downside at -0.5%. Per Market Values, Gold (1254.7) remains some 70 points "low". 6 metrics hit the EconBaro by 07:00 PT.
13 Oct '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: As anticipated, Silver's (17.595, +0.5%) 12-hr. MACD confirmed crossing positive giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 17.875 (ideally from 17.535 at 12:00 PT yesterday). Save for Copper (2.1600, -0.7%) and the Spoo (2119.75, -0.4%) the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, and volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for 7 of the 8 components are falling, the exception be those for Oil, (50.17, +0.3%). At Market Values, Gold (1261.00, +0.3%) still shows some 70 points below its BEGOS Valuation (1331). Ex/Im Pricing due at 05:30 PT.
12 Oct '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are notably muted, being little changed and volatility light. Only one EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing has exceeded 50%, that being the Euro's (1.10565) at 83%; the Bond's (163^30) is the narrowest at 30%. Per yesterday's note, Silver's (17.495) 12-hr. MACD provisionally is crossing to positive: if confirmed today at 12:00 PT, we'd then assess a Market Rhythm Target of 0.340 points higher ($1,700/cac); that said, per Market Profiles, Silver shows notable trading resistance at 17.700, as does Gold (1256.0) at 1257.0. FOMC 20/21 Sep Minutes @ 11:00 PT.
11 Oct '16, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0166) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0165; should the PMs (which are lower this session) nonetheless continue their firming, we're eying a potential positive crossing in Silver's (17.505) 12-hr. MACD in the next day or two. Otherwise, save for the Bond (164^11) which is a pip above "unch", the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, but none by at least -1%, and volatility is moderate. Off the most is Oil (50.71, -0.9%), and rangiest is the Euro (1.11060, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 98%. Q3 Earnings Season has begun.
10 Oct '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Strongest is Oil (50.18) +1.3%, followed by Silver (17.780) +1.2%. The Swiss' (1.0231, -0.3%) daily MACD continues to work more negatively, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 1.0165. Gold's (1264.0, +0.4%) settle on Friday (1258.6) completed a perfect "Golden Ratio" retracement as detailed in The Gold Update; at Market Profiles, 1257 shows as trading support, with 1270 as resistance; mind too Gold's positioning at both Market Values and Market Magnets. No "scheduled" incoming EconBaro data due today nor tomorrow.
07 Oct '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As anticipated, the Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 164^28, tar 171^22) was nixed, the daily MACD confirming as negative at yesterday's close. The like study for the Swiss (cur 1.0220, tar 1.0165) is still in play. Again the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, with volatility light-to-moderate. Gold (1258.6) is consolidating in the 1250-1260 area of the 1280-1240 support zone; Silver's (17.385) consolidation is in the 17.20-17.40 area; at our Market Values page, Gold is more than 70 points below its BEGOS valuation. Jobs data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
06 Oct '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Precious Metals continue to hold their ground after Tue's fallout. Specific to Gold (1269.8), price is within the 1280-1240 support zone (regularly displayed over the past year in The Gold Update's weekly bars chart); at Market Profiles, Gold's overhead trading resistors to initially reclaim are 1274 and then 1287, given the "way overdone" selling notion, let alone no hesitation in "The Whiny 1290s". Per the 03 Oct comment, Copper's (2.1545) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over in earnest. The BEGOS Markets are barely changed either way and volatility again is light.
05 Oct '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold (1276.0) & Silver (17.885) are firming following yesterday's sell-off, its being "way overdone" given nothing fundamentally new nor surprising, nor move of similar magnitude in the Dollar (96.025), Sterling (1.2750), etc. The BEGOS Markets are mostly mildly higher and volatility light. The Bond's (166^02) daily MACD still is positive, but weakening such that the Market Rhythm Target of 171^22 could soon get nixed; we've a Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0276, tar 1.0165), its daily MACD confirmed as negative. ADP: 05:15 PT; Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; FactOrdrs/ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
04 Oct '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver (18.765) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 18.875; the Bond's (168^12) Target per its positive daily MACD remains 171^22. The Dollar (96.110) is rising as Sterling (1.2875) is down to levels not seen since the Buck's high in '85; thus with the EuroCurrencies also falling, we've the Swiss (1.0245) with a provisional negative daily MACD crossing: if confirmed, we'd have a Target of .0096 points lower ($1,200/cac) from the GLOBEX opening price later today at 15:00 PT. Save for the Bond and Spoo (2154.75), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are down, and volatility moderate.
03 Oct '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Q4 kicks off with light-to-moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets which are mixed and little changed, save for Oil (46.87, +1.3%). Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Bond (cur 168^07, tar 171^22) per its still-positive daily MACD, and Silver (cur 19.230, tar 18.875) per its still-negative 12-hr. MACD. Mind Copper's (2.2005) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends): the red metal has been on a solid 21-day linear regression uptrend such that upon price and the blues dots cracking, 'twould then suggest even further selling. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending @ 07:00 PT.
30 Sep '16, 04:43 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, notwithstanding a 1-minute "flash crash" in the Swiss (cur 1.0317, low 0.9994) which occurred at 02:58 PT ('tis surmised on SNB intervention), several 1,000 cacs driving price down about 500% of the EDTR (see Market Ranges); price fully recovered a minute later. Our 2 Market Rhythm Targets remain open for the Bond (cur 169^26, tar 171^22) and Silver (cur 19.370, tar 18.875); the Spoo's (2148.00) 12-hr. Price Oscillator may go negative into the weekend. Personal Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; Chi PMI due @ 07:00 PT.
29 Sep '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: As anticipated, Gold's (1323.3) Market Rhythm Target of 1364.1 was nixed yesterday as the 12-hr. MACD confirmed its negative cross. Hedging that, Silver's (19.120) Target of 18.875 remains in place, its 12-hr. MACD working further negative. The Bond's (168^13) Target of 171^22 is still alive, given the positive daily MACD. Save for the barely up Swiss (1.0352), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS markets are mildly lower on light-to-moderate volatility: Silver is the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 90%. Final Q2 GDP read: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes due: 07:00 PT.
28 Sep '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver's (19.200) 12-hr. MACD confirmed the negative cross, for which we've a Market Rhythm Target of 18.875; there is dominant trading resistance on the white metal's Market Profile at 19.300. Still in place is the Target for the Bond (cur 169^04, tar 171^22) per its positive daily MACD; as for Gold (cur 1328.9, tar 1364.1), its 12-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing negative (confirm would be at 12:00 PT) which would nix that target. Just as at this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets again are little changed and volatility is moderate. Durable Orders come due at 05:30 PT.
27 Sep '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, no one component presently changed by > 1% either way, and volatility is again moderate. Gold's (1341.0) 12-hr. MACD remains positive, the Market Rhythm Target still in place at 1364.1. The Bond's (168^24) daily MACD confirmed a positive close at week's end, giving us a Target of 171^22 (ideally from this week's open of 167^28). Silver's (19.470) 12-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing negative (confirm would be at 12:00 PT) from which a Target of 0.340 ($1,700/cac) lower could then be set. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
26 Sep '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Surely coincident having mentioned "banking bobbles" in The Gold Update, Deutsche Bank's falling to a some 30-yr. low is weighing on the sector as well, and in turn equities, the Spoo (2148.00) -0.4%. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with the Bond (168^06, +0.3%) and EuroCurrencies (both +0.2%) getting the bid. Silver (19.505) is the weakest of the bunch, -1.4%, with Copper (2.1840) off -0.7%; however Gold (1340.4) is barely down, -0.1%; its Market Rhythm Target of 1364.1 per the positive 12-hr. MACD remains in place. New Homes due at 07:00 PT.
23 Sep '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Today lacking scheduled incoming EconData, and the Fed having passed, the BEGOS Markets are subdued: up the most and rangiest of the bunch, is Oil (46.40, +0.7%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 77%; the only other component with a tracing > than 50% is Copper (2.1930, +0.2%) at 56%, narrowest is the Spoo (2165.25, -0.2%) with an EDTR tracing of just 25%. Gold's (1341.4, +0.1%) daily MACD is improving its positive stance, the Market Rhythm Target remaining 1364.1; in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above the 0% axis.
22 Sep '16, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver (19.950) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 19.610. Similarly, Gold (1337.6) confirmed a positive crossing on its own 12-hr. MACD (from 12:00 PT yesterday at the 1334.1 level) to give us a Target of 1364.1. The Bond's (167^10) daily MACD may confirm a positive crossing by week's end. BEGOS Markets volatility is running the spectrum from light-to-robust: rangiest is Copper (2.1875) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 111%, whilst Oil's (45.83) EDTR tracing is just 24%. Save for Gold (-0.1%), the balance of the components are up. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
21 Sep '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Precious Metals have responded positively to the BOJ's focus on bringing tilt to the long end of an otherwise flat yield curve of negative rates: Gold (1324.4) is +0.5% and Silver (19.520) is +1.1%; Silver's 12-hr. MACD continues to build to the positive side toward its Market Rhythm Target of 19.610; the same study for Gold looks to confirm a positive crossing come 12:00 PT, barring a surprise rise by the Fed, ahead of which BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust; Silver leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%. FOMC: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
20 Sep '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for Oil (43.40, -0.8%) are mildly higher, the most being the Bond (166^06, 0.5%). Central Banks' monetary policy statements tonight and tomorrow notwithstanding, Silver's (19.225, "unch") 12-hr. MACD has confirmed crossing to positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 19.610; at Market Trends, the white metal's "Baby Blues continue to ascend, the only other of the 8 components also in a 21-day linreg uptrend being Copper (2.1535, "unch"). Housing Starts/Building Permits due at 05:30 PT. BOJ in the 20:00 PT hour.
19 Sep '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate to start this week highlighted with little incoming EconData and a "do nothing" FOMC policy statement (Wed 21 Sep). Components' changes are mixed, and Silver (19.180, +1.8%) has the broadest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, 86%. Narrowest is that for the Bond (165^28, +0.1%) at just 20%. We're watching Silver's 12-hr. MACD as it appears on course to go positive in the next day or two, and "ought" benefit further following the Fed; Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have crossed above their 0% axis.
16 Sep '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil (Nov 43.79) is off the most, -1.2%, of the BEGOS Markets; Oil's cac volume has moved from Oct into Nov, (1st notice for Oct delivery is Thu, 22 Sep). Cac volume has also moved from Sep into Dec for the EuroCurrencies. Save for the Bond (166^13), +0.5% but still below its Market Magnet, the balance of the 7 other components are down, again on light volatility. The Spoo's (2129.25, -0.4%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower: per Market Profiles, there are Spoo trading supports at 2126, or failing that, 2020. CPI @ 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
15 Sep '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are subdued on fairly light volatility ahead of 11 incoming metrics for the EconBaro, 8 of them hitting at 05:30 PT (including Retail Sales, PPI, Philly Fed, NY Empire Index and Q2 Current Account), followed by IndProd/CapUtil at 06:15 PT and then BusInvs at 07:00 PT. Presently, no one BEGOS component is changed either way by more than 0.3%; the rangiest of the bunch thus far is the Spoo (2118.00, +0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 62%. The Oil (43.74, +0.2%) studies noted yesterday indeed saw price drop into the 43s. Mind the EconBaro.
14 Sep '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (2.1280) having already traced 127% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the BEGOS Markets are more subdued, volatility running light-to-moderate. All 8 components are mildly in the black, only Copper being up by more than 1% (+1.2%), followed by Silver (19.090), +0.9%. At Market Trends, just the metals triumvirate reflect firmness in the "Baby Blues", the balance of the bunch all falling. Oil's (45.14) 12-hr. MACD and 8-hr. Price Oscillator are both suggesting a price drop into the upper 43s. The flow of EconData begins to pick up: Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
13 Sep '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: As anticipated yesterday, we've nixed Gold's (1328.5) Market Rhythm Target of 1361.2 given the 12-hr. MACD's confirmed negative cross. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed and volatility moderate, with Oil (45.24) the downside leader at -1.8% and the Bond (167^09) the upside leader at +0.3%; given the widening EDTRs (see Market Ranges) for most of the components, keep an eye as well on our Market Magnets page, wherein the Bond is shown at a low extreme from its Magnet. The Spoo's (2137.50, -0.6%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall in real time.
12 Sep '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold's (1329.2) 12-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing negative ('twould confirm at 12:00 PT) which would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 1361.2; in sympathy, Silver's (18.850) 8-hr. Moneyflow slid sub-50 on Friday, and the Euro's (1.12235) 4-hr Price Oscillator is turning negative, with the Dollar (95.335) firming for the 4th session in-a-row. The BEGOS Markets, having all fallen on Friday, are mixed and volatility is moderate; as noted in The Gold Update, the 21-day linreg trend is declining for all 8 components. Weakest this session are Oil (44.84), -1.9% and Silver, -1.5%.
09 Sep '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Save for the Euro (1.12705, +0.1%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Silver (19.510, -0.9%). Gold (1338.3, -0.3%) still has its 12-hr. MACD on the positive side such that our Market Rhythm Target of 1361.2 is being maintained. The Spoo's (2164.5, -0.3%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative, suggestive of move 20 points lower should that signal be confirmed. Volatility is moderate across the spectrum, the rangiest being the Bond (167^23, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 92%. Whsl Invs come due @ 07:00 PT.
08 Sep '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold's (1351.3) 12-hr. MACD remains positive such that our Market Rhythm Target is still 1361.2; that may be reinforced by the daily Parabolics having confirmed a flip to Long from yesterday's open (of 1353.5). BEGOS Markets volatility is again light-to-moderate with 6 of the 8 components mildly higher: only lower are Copper (2.0940, -0.2%) and the Bond (170^22, -0.1%). The Spoo's (2185.50) front month slides to Dec (2179.00) upon open outcry at 06:30 PT, however cac volume shan't notably shift until tomorrow, (new Fair Value is -6.80). ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT.
07 Sep '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Silver (20.020) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 19.770; price now in the low 20s, this is the "bunching" area cited in the current Gold Update; also, price per the 8-hr. moneyflow level of 92 (and which has been 80+ since 01 Sep), Silver can be regarded as short-term overbought; 'tis -0.7% this session. Gold (1353.1, -0.1%) still has its Target of 1361.2 per its positive 12-hr. MACD. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate; Silver is the weakest and Oil (45.19) is the firmest, +0.7%. Mind the down-kink in the Econ Baro. Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
06 Sep '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: The double session continues, the BEGOS Markets now positive across the board, (the Dollar [95.610] being weaker); volatility is solidly moderate. Oil (44.92) still leads to the upside, but now by +1.6% vs. 3.0% at this time yesterday. Second best is Copper (2.0915), +0.7%, followed by Gold (1336.3) and Silver (19.630), both +0.6%. The Spoo's (2179.75) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are sub-0% and dropping steadily despite last week's late price bounce. The Blues for the Euro (1.11710) and Swiss (1.0225) in real-time are below crossing their 0% lines. ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
05 Sep '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: This Sunday-Tuesday session is finding the BEGOS Markets on balance to the upside with light-to-moderate volatility. The outlier is Oil (45.54), +3.0% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 167%. Only the Bond (169^05) is presently lower, -0.1%. Per the 02 Sep comment, Silver's daily Parabolics are now confirmed as Long for a Market Rhythm Target (from the session's open of 19.470) of 19.770. Gold's (1330.3) now-positive 12-hr. MACD has a Target (from Friday's 1327.2 at 12:00) of 1361.2. StateSide Labor Day trading halt from 10:00 PT to 15:00 PT.
02 Sep '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with little net change and volatility mostly running light ahead of another barrage of EconData. We've no open Market Rhythm Targets at present; Silver's (18.880) daily Parabolics would flip Long were price to eclipse 19.120 today; that price is within the EDTR (see Market Ranges) were Silver to work higher this session; as well, Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling higher, (in real time now -78% vs. -83% yesterday). The Spoo's (1269) Blues in real-time have crossed sub-0%. Payrolls & Trade Deficit at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
01 Sep '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0165) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0134; in a year with many "nixed" targets, 'tis good to finally be seeing signals again following through to Targets. The balance of the week is thick with incoming EconData for the EconBaro, and BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, yet no one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.5%: Oil (44.64) is weakest, -0.5%, and Copper (2.0880) firmest, +0.4%. Rangiest is the Swiss with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%. Revised Productivity for Q2 @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction @ 07:00 PT.
31 Aug '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil (45.96) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 46.16; the Swiss' (1.0164) Target of 1.034 remains in place as the daily MACD continues its negative course. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with volatility at best light, save for Silver (18.790) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 73%; no other component's tracing exceeds 50%, the Spoo's (2175.00) at only 26%. Gold's (1317.0) 21-day linreg downtrend, with its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having yet to reach the -80% mark, sees 1306 structural support. ADP: 5:15 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
30 Aug '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the sole riser being Oil (47.24, +0.6%); Oil's 12-hr. MACD remains negative, maintaining our our Market Rhythm Target of 46.16. The Swiss' (1.0211) daily MACD also remains negative, the Target there being 1.0134. Volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver (18.835) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 62%, the lightest tracing being that of the Spoo (2179.00) at just 28%. The components barely budged either way from Stan Fisher's fairly uninformative interview (Bloomy) last hour. Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
29 Aug '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil's (47.02) 12-hr. MACD continues to work lower, our Market Rhythm Target of 46.16 still in place. The Swiss (1.0230) has confirmed a negative daily MACD crossing for a Target of 1.0134. Copper's (Sep 2.0795) cac volume is moving into Dec (2.0840), as is that for Silver (Sep 18.560, Dec 18.660). BEGOS Markets volatility is light, but ought pep up during the week as 21 metrics hit the EconBaro. Silver is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 62%; least rangy is Oil with a 34% tracing, but off the most at -0.6%. Personal Inc/Spd due at 05:30 PT.
26 Aug '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility continues as light with GDP data (05:30 PT) and Yellen remarks (text 07:00 PT, delivery 08:00 PT) in the week's balance. Perhaps in anticipation of "nothing", the PMs are the component leaders, Silver (18.650, +0.8%) and Gold (1330.0, +0.4%). Oil (47.13) is the weak link, -0.5%, its 12-hr. MACD working negatively such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 46.16. The Spoo's (2173.25) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed going negative, the suggested Target being 2148.5, but that could be quickly expunged per Yellen's Jackson Hole speech.
25 Aug '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper (2.0820) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880; Oil's (46.44) Target of 46.16 remains in place per the negative crossing of the 12-hr. MACD. The Spoo's (2169.75) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally turned negative, (confirm would be at 12:00 PT), which could point to a Target some 20 points lower, (albeit we've Jackson Hole FedSpeak these next 2 days). BEGOS Markets volatility is light and changes presently minimal, the most being Oil's off -0.8%. Gold's (1327.5) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have dropped below their 0% level. Durables @ 05:30 PT.
24 Aug '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: One might characterize the BEGOS Markets week-to-date as being messy; they've a mild downside bias this session, with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings fairly narrow. Copper (2.1050) has the widest EDTR tracing at 58%; vol is still in the Sep cac, for which our Market Rhythm Target remains 2.0880 (or 2.0980 basis Dec). Oil's (47.27) 12-hr. MACD has confirmed a negative cross for a Target of 46.16, (ideally from entering at the confirm price of 47.36); Oil is in its 3rd straight session of creating (thus far) a "lower high", (Invs @ 07:30 PT). Existing Homes @ 07:00 PT.
23 Aug '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.1330) daily Price Oscillator is presently at its lowest level (-0.54) since confirming as negative on 08 Aug; thus our Market Rhythm Target for 2.0880 remains in place; (rolling to the Dec cac ought revise that to 2.0980). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, Oil (47.04) the weakest of the bunch -0.7%; Silver (19.015) is the firmest, +0.7%, albeit its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling sharply; those for Gold (1344.4) look to pass sub-zero going into tomorrow's session as the 21-day LinReg trend turns negative. New Homes at 07:00 PT.
22 Aug '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Bond (171^06), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the Dollar (94.670) up for the 2nd day in-a-row, but in a decidedly downtrend since its 25 Jul high (97.620). Oil (47.78) is the weakest component, -2.7%; its 12-hr. MACD has the early look of a pending negative crossing. Silver (18.920) is 2nd-weakest, -2.0%; The Gold Update points to expectations of lower PM levels near-term. Copper (2.1390) is maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880; this will likely "roll" into a Dec-priced Target in the next day or two. No EconBaro data due today.
19 Aug '16, 04:42 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0458) hit its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0467. Copper's (2.1635) Target of 2.0880 remains intact as its daily Price Oscillator is still negative; the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun curling up, but the 21-LinReg trend is down; per Market Profiles, Copper's 2.15 area is a key trading supporter. All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently down, (the Dollar [94.395] firmer), with Silver (19.430) the weakest at -1.6%; the white metal is also the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%. Q2 Earnings Season ending: in toto, 55% bettered Y-o-Y.
18 Aug '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with the 8 component little changed to mildly higher, the exception being Copper (2.1790), +1.0%; its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880 is still in place given the ongoing negative stance of the daily Price Oscillator. Remaining in place as well is the Swiss' (1.0452) Target of 1.0467, the daily Parabolics firmly to the LongSide. Silver's (19.790) subtle week pales to that of Gold (1356.6). The EuroCurrencies are at their highest levels since late June as the Dollar (94.360) continues to weaken. Leading Indicators and Philly Fed come due at 07:00 PT.
17 Aug '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: After yesterday's fallout, the Dollar (94.900) is getting a mild boost, finding all the BEGOS Markets presently lower, Silver (19.615) and Copper (2.1510) as the downside leaders at -0.9% each; the red metal's Market Rhythm Target is intact for 2.0880, as is that for the Swiss (cur 1.0407, tar 1.0467). The Euro's (1.12850) 13/89 EMA is crossing positively and the Spoo's (2176.50) 8-hr. Price Oscillator looks to turn negative within 24 hours; both events may offer Targets. The FOMC's 27 July statement was without a press conference, the attendant minutes due at 11:00 PT.
16 Aug '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: A declining Dollar (94.590) is pushing the Swiss (1.4027, +1.3%) up towards its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0487; but strength in Copper (2.1750, +1.2%) is moving it away from its Target of 2.0880; the underlying signals remain in place for both components (Swiss' LongSide daily Parabolics and Copper's negative daily Price Oscillator). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, save for the Spoo (2183.75, -0.1%) which has traded just 38% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). PMs again firmer. CPI, Housing Starts/Permits due @ 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtil due @ 06:15 PT.
15 Aug '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light across the BEGOS Markets: only Silver (19.885) has traced more than 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 72%; 'tis also the strongest component, +0.9%. The balance of the bunch are up, save for the Bond (172^31), -0.1%. The Swiss (1.0287) is maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0487, as is that for Copper (cur 2.1440, tar 2.0880; rolling the red metal into the Dec cac may occur with a revised Target should it not first be reached/nixed). The week's material dose of data brings the NY Empire Index at 05:30 PT and NAHB Housing at 07:00 PT.
12 Aug '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1490) is the weakest BEGOS Market, -1.7% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 117%; the move favours our Market Rhythm Target of 2.0880, the daily Price Oscillator presently at its lowest reading since confirming negative on 05 Aug; the Swiss' (1.0265) Target of 1.0467 remains in place per the LongSide daily Parabolics, (the nix area now 1.0214-to-1.0202). Volatility is otherwise fairly light for the balance of the components ahead of a rash of metrics for the Econ Baro: PPI and Retail Sales at 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment and BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
11 Aug '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Both Market Rhythm Targets remain in place, that for the Swiss (cur 1.0280, tar 1.0467) by its LongSide daily Parabolics, and that for Copper (cur 2.1785, tar 2.0880) by its negative daily Price Oscillator. Should the PMs get a boost, the 12-hr. MACD for Silver (21.180) looks to cross positive; the white metal is sporting the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 91%. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes mixed: up the most is Oil (14.74, +0.6%); off the most is the Bond (172^30, -0.2%), sitting below Market Profile resistance of 173^10. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
10 Aug '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets picking up the pace as volatility is moderate-to-robust. EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings exceed 100% for the Euro (1.12025, +0.6%), Silver (20.345, +2.4%) and Copper (2.1900, +1.7%); but red metal's daily Price Oscillator is negative such that our Market Rhythm Target is intact for 2.0880. The Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0264, tar 1.0467) escaped getting nixed, the daily Parabolics still Long and price +0.6%. With the Precious Metals firm, Gold (1358.0, +0.9%), the only component in the red is Oil (42.55, -0.5%). Treasury Budget @ 11:00 PT.
09 Aug '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0193, tar 1.0467) remains alive, but not far from being nixed should the daily Parabolics flip to Short, (they're not far away in the 1.0160-1.0175 area). Copper's (2.1570) daily Price Oscillator is confirmed as negative for a Target of 2.0880. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and again volatility is light: only one component has traced more than 50% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, that being Oil's (43.28) at 54%, with price +1.0% as 'twas at this time yesterday. Q2 Productivity due @ 05:30PT; Whsl Invs due @ 07:00 PT.
08 Aug '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: As noted, we nixed our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (cur 2180.50, tar 2125.50) as stocks celebrated the robust July payrolls report, confirming the 8-hr. Price Oscillator positive on Friday at 08:00 PT. As covered in The Gold Update, the Precious Metals suffered one of their worst days of the year, (albeit for the week were down just mildly). Still, our Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0206, tar 1.0467) is intact, the daily Parabolics remaining Long despite price sinking for the 4th straight session. Oil (42.40, +1.0%) leads the otherwise mixed BEGOS Markets; volatility is light.
05 Aug '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: With payrolls due at 05:30 PT, BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the components mixed across the board with little change either way. The Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0295, tar 1.0467) remains viable as the daily Parabolics are still to the LongSide, as is the Target for the Spoo (cur 2164.25, tar 2125.50) by its 8-hr. Price Oscillator still negative, albeit an upside response to the payrolls data can nix that. As noted (03 Aug), Copper's (2.1670) daily Price Oscillator is now poised to go negative, perhaps as soon as today. The Trade Deficit also comes due at 05:30 PT.
04 Aug '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BOE's 1st rate cut in 7 years has boosted the Bond (173^06) +0.6%, the best gainer in BEGOS; also higher is the Spoo (2161.75, +0.2%) and Gold (1366.1, +0.1%); the balance of the bunch are lower with both Copper (2.1700) and Oil (40.63), off better than -1.0%. Still in place are Market Rhythm Targets for the Swiss (cur 1.0291, tar 1.0467) and Spoo (tar 2125.50); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall. Components' volatility is moderate, led by Silver's (20.415) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 97%. FactOrdrs @ 07:00 PT.
03 Aug '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Volatility slips back to subtle across the BEGOS Markets, which on balance are down, save for the Bond (172^13, +0.3%) and Gold (1371.0, +0.1%). The daily Parabolics on the Swiss (1.0354) are still Long, thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1.0467 is still in place; the Spoo's (2148.00) 8-hr. Price Oscillator has gone negative (from 2151.50) for a Target of 2125.50; Copper's (2.1925) daily Price Oscillator is on pace to go negative by week's end for a Target upon signal confirmation of 0.0680 points lower ($1,700/cac). ADP employment @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
02 Aug '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Rangier moves across the BEGOS Markets as volatility is solidly moderate, perhaps pepped up by Japan's approval of ¥13.5 trillion ($132 billion) in fiscal measures. 6 of the 8 components are higher, led by Silver (20.740, +1.2%) and Oil (40.53, +1.1%); the 2 weak links are the Bond (171^27, -0.5%) and the Spoo (2159.00, -0.3%); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are noticeably ratcheted lower in real-time, their 1st crack in over a month. The Swiss' (1.0380) Market Rhythm Target remains 1.0467 per the Long daily Parabolics. Personal Inc/Spd due at 05:30 PT.
01 Aug '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Another Market Rhythm Target nixed, this being for the Bond (cur 173^28, tar 160^01) as the daily Parabolics swing to Long; those for the Swiss (1.0352) remain Long as does its Target of 1.0467. August's "dog days" begin with a whimper, as BEGOS Markets volatility is as light as it gets, 6 of the 8 components having EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of < 50%; Oil (41.04) is the rangiest with a 63% tracing, and is off the most at -0.8%. Least volatile is Gold (1355.4) with just an 18% tracing, but see the BEGOS Standings in The Gold Update. ISM(Mfg) & Construction: 07:00 PT.
29 Jul '16, 04:46 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0282) daily Parabolics have confirmed a swing to Long, (from the session's open of 1.0227), for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0467; still maintaining its Target is the Bond (cur 172^16, tar 168^01), also leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 122%, followed by the Swiss at 104%; (the non-BEGOS component Yen [0.96940] has a 212% tracing post-BOJ statement). 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, as only the EuroCurrencies are higher: Oil (40.81) is the weakest, -0.7%. 1st look at Q2 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT. UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Again, the Swiss' (1.0186) daily Parabolics are provisionally poised to confirm a swing to Long at the close; Silver's (20.450) daily Parabolics may confirm to Long should price trade up through 20.630 today; and the Bond's (173^13) daily Parabolics remain Short, but now just about 1 1/2 points away from nixing the 168^01 Market Rhythm Target were 174^28 to trade today. The BEGOS Markets are mostly flat to positive, the strength being in the Metals and Eurocurrencies. Volume on Gold is moving into Dec from Aug, 1st Notice for which is tomorrow. Little EconData today.
27 Jul '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0097) daily Parabolics did not confirm holding their intra-day swing to Long, thus no Market Rhythm Target was established; that study remains in place for the Bond (171^25), the Target still 168^01; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have fallen sub-0%, as have those for Gold (1320.3). BEGOS Markets volatility is light, (save for the non-component Yen [0.94960] with an EDTR [see Market Ranges] tracing of 130% on Abe's fiscal stimulus announcement). Durables due: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC statement (no press conference): 11:00 PT.
26 Jul '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Although not yet officially a BEGOS Market, a robust Yen (0.95960, +1.6%), may be supporting the Precious Metals and Bond (172^07, +0.4%); still, the latter's daily Parabolics are positioned Short, maintaining the Market Rhythm Target of 168^01. The same study on the Swiss (1.0141, -0.3%) is provisionally flipping to Long, (confirm per close). Up the most in BEGOS is Silver (19.735, +0.7%), and weakest are Oil (42.69, -0.9%) and Copper (2.2105, -0.8%). EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings show volatility as moderate. New Homes & Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
25 Jul '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: As noted in The Gold Update, Gold's (1316.6) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are passing sub-0% in real time; price has moved below Market Profile support, with 1306 in the offing as a structural support; we'd further look to "The Whiny 1290s" to limit the downside. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; the weakest component is Silver (19.465, -1.1%) followed by Oil (43.80, -1.0%); none of the bunch are measurably higher. The Bond's (171^13, -0.2%) daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, the Market Rhythm Target of 168^01 still intact. No EconBaro data due today.
22 Jul '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: From a busy day of data to one lacking: the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper (2.2560) sporting the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 69%; narrowest is the Euro (1.10395) with a 33% tracing. The Bond's (171^08) Market Rhythm Target of 168^01 is still intact per the Short daily Parabolics stance; also, the Bond's daily Moneyflow measure confirmed going sub-50 (scale 100-0) from Monday's close. The Spoo's (2162.50) 8-hr. Price Oscillator is presently gliding on pace toward a negative crossing in the new week.
21 Jul '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: A busy session of ECB policy and incoming data. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, with mixed changes presently < 0.5% in either direction. The Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 171^08, tar 168^01) per its daily Parabolics remains in place; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) appear on pace to pass sub-0% come Monday; similarly, those blue dots are accelerating their downside pace for both Gold (1320.6) and Silver (19.470); per The Gold Update's weekly bars, 1306 is a structural support. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; LEI: 07:00 PT.
20 Jul '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Silver (19.770) met its Market Rhythm Target of 19.855; the Bond's (171^23) Target of 168^01 is still in place. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, save for Oil (45.50) and the Spoo (2165.00); volatility is moderate, the rangiest component being Gold (1323.0) having traced 77% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Oil is the least rangy with just a 22% EDTR tracing. Again, at Market Ranges, you can see all the EDTRs narrowing. At our Earnings Season page, 71% have beaten estimates, but only 55% have actually improved, albeit we've still several weeks of Q2 reports to come.
19 Jul '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: We're nixing Oil's (45.84) Market Rhythm Target of 48.89 as the 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short; the Bond's (172^18) Target of 168^01 remains intact per its Short daily Parabolics, albeit price appears low by its Market Magnet. We've a new daily Parabolics Short Target for Silver (20.055, tar 19.855), ideally from an entry of 20.115. BEGOS Markets are mixed with little change either way, and volatility is essentially light. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs are peaking across the spectrum, supporting the narrower trading days we've been seeing of late. Housing/Permits: 05:30 PT.
18 Jul '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Cac volume for Oil (Aug 45.60) is moving into Sep (46.28), our Market Rhythm Target (48.89) remaining in place as the 12-hr. Parabolics are still to the LongSide. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; the weakest component is Silver (19.845), -2.2%, the daily Parabolics of which should confirm a swing to Short at day's end; up the most is the Spoo (2157.25), +0.5%; The Gold Update cites the S&P's (2161.74) record high despite lack of both supportive earnings and moneyflow. The Bond's (172^03) daily Parabolics have confirmed a ShortSide Target of 168^01).
15 Jul '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Incoming data is plentiful later this morning for the EconBaro from the NY Empire Index, Retail Sales, CPI, IndPrd/CapUtil, UofM Sentiment and BusInvs. The BEGOS Markets are little changed, with volatility light-to-moderate: Copper (2.2550) is up the most at +0.6%, and Silver (20.235) is off the most at -0.6%. Our Market Rhythm Target for Oil (Sep 46.19, tar 48.89) is still in play as the 12-hr. Parabolics remain Long. The Bond's (172^20) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short (should price trade down today through 172^15), which would set a Target of some 3 full points lower.
14 Jul '16, 04:40 Pacific Time: Oil's (Aug 45.44, Sep 46.15) Market Rhythm Target (Sep 48.89) is still in place as yesterday's price fallout was not sufficient to flip the 12-hr. Parabolics to Short; Oil is firmer today, +0.7%, albeit its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 28% is the narrowest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is otherwise moderate. Gold (1328.2) is the weakest component, -1.1%; the yellow metal has broken below various Market Profile supports; recall the current Gold Update citing 1322 as a key level to hold. Despite Brexit, the BOE "unexpectedly" kept its rate steady. PPI due at 05:30 PT.
13 Jul '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: We're replacing a would-be Market Rhythm Target for Aug Oil (cur 46.20) from yesterday's positive 6-hr. MACD crossing with a Sep Oil (46.91) Target of 48.89 per the 12-hr. Parabolics having flipped to Long; presently, Oil (-0.9%) is the only BEGOS Market not in the black; Copper (2.2430) is up the most at +1.3% and has the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 129%; otherwise, components' volatility is moderate. The Bond (174^22) and Precious Metals are firmer which is putting a damper on the record-high Spoo (2146.25). Fed's Tan Tome due at 11:00 PT.
12 Jul '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil's (45.95) 6-hr, MACD looks to confirm a positive crossing at 06:00 PT, from which a Market Rhythm Target of 1.60 points ($1,600/cac) may be established; Oil +3.1% is the strongest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is moderate, with Copper (2.1880, +1.9%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 97%. Gold (1348.6) is the weakest component, -0.6%, and least rangy is the Spoo (2140.75, +0.5%) with just a 40% EDTR tracing; at Market Magnets, the Spoo is at an extreme level above its Magnet. Q2 Earnings Season has begun. Whsl Invs are due at 07:00 PT.
11 Jul '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Not as yet a BEGOS Market on the website, the Yen (.97845) following Abe's victory is sporting an "expected daily trading range" (EDTR) tracing of 132%; for the BEGOS components themselves, their tracings are far more subdued, the widest being Copper's (2.1580) at 87%; 2nd is Gold (1359.8, 76%), and 3rd is Silver (20.430, 69%). The balance of the tracings (vis-à-vis what is "expected" on the Market Ranges page) are sub-50%. Changes are mixed, Copper the strongest, +1.6%, and Gold the weakest, -0.6%. The Gold Update assesses price's return up to Base Camp 1377.
08 Jul '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil (45.67) met its Market Rhythm Target of 45.52; still, new Targets are appearing at a below-average rate: our Market Rhythms page presently shows only 15 studies (of a possible 280 tested daily) meeting the list's eligibility, reflecting an ongoing lack of follow-through conviction after signal triggerings. The session's volatility for the BEGOS Markets is again very subdued: the Bond's (176^13) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leads the pack at just 53%. Only Oil, +1.1% is posting a change of more than 1% in either way; weakest is Gold (1358.3), -0.3%. Payrolls: 05:30 PT.
07 Jul '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: A very unruffled session with BEGOS Markets volatility essentially light: the widest EDTR tracing is Silver's (19.960) at 60%, also the weakest component at -1.0%. Oil's (47.96) 12-hr MACD remains negative and thus we maintain the Market Rhythm Target of 45.52; contra there, Oil's 6-hr. MACD may confirm a cross to positive at 12:00 PT. At Market Magnets, Silver, Gold (1364.5), the Spoo (2091.75) and the Bond (176^04) all appear quite stretched to the upside; the Bond at Market Profiles has a key supporter at 175^28, else price ought drop into the 174^20s. ADP due at 05:15 PT.
06 Jul '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold (1374.2) has hit our revised 2016 target of "Base Camp 1377"; we'll re-evaluate that in the next Gold Update. As anticipated, Oil's (46.03) 12-hr MACD did confirm as negative (at 12:00 PT from 46.72) for which the Market Rhythm Target is 45.52. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-moderate, the Precious Metals leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, whilst the EuroCurrencies are the most docile. Silver (20.430) is strongest, +2.1%, and Copper (2.1385) is weakest, -2.1%. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes (14-15 Jun): 11:00 PT.
05 Jul '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Silver's (19.820, -0.2%) wild Sunday-Tuesday session continues, as noted (yesterday) trading en route as high 21.225; its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing for this dual session is 301%, vs. Gold's (1350.4, +0.4%) 85% tracing; as noted in both the 01 Jul comment and The Gold Update, Silver is at an extreme per its Market Magnet. The thinnest tracing is the Spoo's (1287.50, -0.4%) at 65%. Oil's (47.78, -3.0%, EDTR tracing 102%) 12-hr MACD is poised to confirm a negative crossing come 12:00 PT, which from then ought qualify for a Market Rhythm Target lower by 1.20 points.
04 Jul '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The white hot metal Silver (20.365) remains the stalwart story, +2.6% in this Sunday-Tuesday GLOBEX session, (5-hr. trading halt today from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT); trading up to 21.225 put Silver year-to-date +53.5%; the comprehensive 2016 BEGOS Market Standings (per Friday) are in The Gold Update, wherein we've also raised this year's Gold (1354.4) target to "Base Camp 1377". The session is otherwise fairly muted with no one component (save for Silver) presently changed by more than 0.7% in either direction, with EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings sub-100%. Happy 4th!
01 Jul '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Silver's (19.285) strength continues, starting Q2 presently +2.6%; she leads the session's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%; also higher are the Bond (174^26, +1.2%) with an EDTR tracing of 133%, followed by Gold (1337.0, +0.9%), tracing 70% of its EDTR, thus clearly the more docile of the PMs; at Market Magnets, Silver is pushing to an upside extreme, but fundamentally so justified. Copper (2.1720, -1.3%) and Oil (48.10, -0.6%) are the losers; Oil's 12-hr MACD (see 29 Jun) is whippy rather than with follow-through. ISM(Mfg) & Construction due @ 07:00 PT.
30 Jun '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Those BEGOS Markets most marred following the pro-Brexit vote continue to recover, the Spoo (2069.25) presently having recouped 64% of its own fallout; similarly, Oil (49.31) has regained 75% of its loss; also coming back up, albeit by lesser percentages, are the EuroCurrencies. Volatility this last day of Q2 is light-to-moderate, and the components are mixed, no one presently changed by more than 0.5% in either direction; the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is by the Swiss (1.0286) at 71%; Oil is the most subtle with just a 28% EDTR tracing. Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT.
29 Jun '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Sister Silver's (18.310) is Queen of the BEGOS Markets, +2.4%, the Spoo (2042.00) the 2nd-best performer being at just 0.7%. The white metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 133%, the Spoo 2nd again there with just a 62% tracing. Copper (2.1650) is the weak link, -0.6%. Oil's (48.27) 12-hr. MACD is poised to cross to positive within its next few periods. Components that had reached extreme deviations from their Market Magnets have reversed course, the exception being the Bond (173^16) still appearing as "high". Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT.
28 Jun '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate in a reversal of directions seen from the prior two sessions; thus the notable gainers are Oil (47.56, +2.0%), Copper (2.1640, +1.7%) and the Spoo (2004.25, +1.1%), the biggest 2 losers being Gold (1312.2, -1.2%) and Silver (17.620, -0.9%). Cac volume for both the white and red metals is moving from Jul into Sep. At Market Magnets, the Spoo's price extreme deviation is stark, however at Moneyflow, the S&P 500 "ought be" some 200 points than 'tis. Final read on Q1 GDP at 05:30 PT. Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
27 Jun '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Friday's effect upon the BEGOS Markets' EDTRs (see Market Ranges) has clearly widened them; given that context, volatility thus far today is moderate-to-robust, the Bond (172^26, +1.3%) the rangiest component with a 133% EDTR tracing; those for the balance of the bunch are sub-100% with changes presently of less than 1% either way, save for Gold (1333.4, +1.1%). We've presently no open Market Rhythm Targets; one ought mind those making our Market Rhythms page with a grain of volatility salt. Mind, too, our Market Values and Market Magnets pages for extremes.
24 Jun '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Brexit's "unexpected" passing in the eyes of the BEGOS Markets has effected one of the rangiest sessions since 2008's Black Swan. The Bond (171^03, +3.0%) has traced 634% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), the Spoo (2023.00, -4.3%) 606%, and Gold (1321.1, +4.9%) 572%; Gold's high of 1362.6 is its best level since 18 Mar '14. Oil (47.68, -4.9%) is the weakest component. Volatility is sufficiently extreme that day-trading margin requirements remain double for the PMs and U.S. Indices, and triple for currency pairs and European Indices. Durables due @ 05:30 PT.
23 Jun '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Week-to-date, the BEGOS Markets are reacting as if Brexit shan't pass; UK polls close at 14:00 PT; day-trading margin requirements have been doubled/trebled, which can lead to thin, volatile conditions; EDTRs (see Market Ranges) tracings in this session are already over 100% for the Bond (166^19), EuroCurrencies, and the Spoo (2096.25). Oil (49.84) is up the most, at +1.7%, and both the Bond and Gold (1261.9) off the most at -0.6%. Silver (17.250) has not been hit as has Gold this week (-1.5% vs. -3.1% respectively); Copper's (2.1470) week is +4.6%. New Homes due: 07:00 PT.
22 Jun '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: We've nixed Oil's (50.15) Market Rhythm Target of 46.33, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed as positive at 00:00 PT (midnight). Trading activity appears to be tightening ahead of tomorrow's Brexit vote; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, with presently little change either way; the EuroCurrencies are leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the Swiss' (1.0477) at 81% and the Euro's (1.13250) at 69%. The pullback in the PM's this week below their Market Profile supports suggest Brexit shan't pass. Yellen's testimony/Existing Homes both at 07:00 PT.
21 Jun '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold (1273.5) is under the gun, -1.5%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed (4 up, 4 down) on moderate-to-robust volatility; Gold is the rangiest as well, tracing 133% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil (49.36) is lower too, -1.0%, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator still negative, (albeit not nearly as much as 'twas), its Market Rhythm Target thus still in place for 46.33. We are wary of whip in the Euro's (1.13535) daily Parabolics, (note there are no Euro Rhythms presently in the list on the Market Rhythms page). Yellen congressional testimony today & tomorrow at 07:00 PT.
20 Jun '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2085.25) is the strongest, +1.3%, of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (1281.2), the weekly close of which topped 1300 for the first time since 2014, is the weakest, -1.6%. Most rangy is the Swiss (1.0466), nearly "unch", but with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 130%, followed by Silver's (17.335, -1.1%) 102% tracing. Both PMs are presently just clinging to the underside of their most dominant apices by their Market Profiles. As noted in The Gold Update, this week has the Brexit vote (Thu 23 Jun) and the EconData calendar is light.
17 Jun '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, 6 of the 8 being up. The weak links are the Bond (169^10, -0.3%) and the Spoo (2065.75, -0.2%). The Precious Metals & EuroCurrencies are firmer following a material intra-session turnabout yesterday: for Gold (1291.5) 'twas on a points basis the widest trading-day range since 18 Feb, whilst Silver (17.430) tied for its 3rd rangiest day year-to-date. Oil's (Aug 47.49) Market Rhythm Target is still 46.33, the 12-hour Price Oscillator moving lower despite price in this session +1.6%. Housing Starts/Permits due at 05:30 PT.
16 Jun '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Gold (1309.0) has made a high for the year (1316.8) as post-Fed the Precious Metals and EuroCurrencies exhibit robust volatility, their EDTRs (see Market Ranges) well-exceeding 100%, even as the Dollar (95.060) too is firmer overnight; the Yen (0.96230) is +1.6% with an EDTR tracing of 251% (!) Copper's (2.0435) whipsaw continues, this session from a high of 2.0930 to as low as 2.0370; both the Spoo (2053.75) and Oil (47.30) are -0.4%; Oil's Market Rhythm Target on the Aug cac (cur 47.80) remains 46.33. CPI @ 05:30 PT; then Philly Fed & NAHB Housing @ 07:00 PT.
15 Jun '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Copper (2.0930) has put in its 4th vast overnight swing in the last 2 weeks, ranging this session from 2.0385 up to 2.0990, a 144% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) the red metal is up the most, +2.4%, of the BEGOS Markets, which otherwise are docile and mixed. Oil's (47.99) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has deepened, our Market Rhythm Target being maintained on the Aug cac (cur 48.54, tar 46.33). The Euro's (1.12685) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short and Golds' 6-hr. MACD turned negative yesterday. PPI/NY Empire Index - 05:30 PT; FOMC - 11:00 PT; Yellen - 11:30 PT.
14 Jun '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Oil's (48.32) 12-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed as negative at 00:00 (midnight) PT, ideally from an Aug cac entry of 49.03 (cur 48.95), for a Market Rhythm Target of 46.33; (recall we'd nixed a Jul cac Target of 46.20 back on 07 Jun); at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have begun a swift decline. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.12660, -0.6%) having traced 110% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). 7 of the 8 components are in the red: only the Bond (169^16) is up, +0.4%. Ex/Im pricing and Retail Sales come due at 05:30 PT; then BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
13 Jun '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold (1287.4) is our BEGOS Markets leader, +0.9%; 2nd strongest is Copper (2.0405), +0.7%, making it ironic that Silver (17.325) is essentially "unch". The weak ones are Oil (48.55, -1.7%) and the Spoo (2080.50, -0.3%). The Gold Update emphasizes that the myriad of nixed Market Rhythm Targets we've had of late may be a Gold-positive as overall markets uncertainty is hampering technical signals' follow-though. That said, Oil's 12-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative; if confirmed at 12:00 PT, a Target of 2.70 points lower can then be established.
10 Jun '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: As anticipated, we've nixed Copper's (2.0315) Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 as the daily MACD has crossed to negative. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. Again, Oil (49.91) is the weakest of the bunch, -1.1%, and the Bond (168^06) the strongest, +0.4%. EuroCurrencies cac volume is moving into Sep, (1st Position is Mon). At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are rising for the EuroCurrencies and PMs such that those respective 21-day linreg trends ought turn positive in the new week. UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT; Treasury Budget @ 11:00 PT. (Post inadvertently delayed until 07:10 PT)
09 Jun '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes mixed, Oil (50.84) the weakest at -1.3%; up the most is the Bond (167^12) at +0.3%. Copper's (2.0590) daily MACD remains positive, albeit further weakness in price could well nix our Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 by week's end. Also lower is the Spoo (Jun 2111.50) for which the high has come after the low in 10 of the past 13 trading days (full 23-hour Globex sessions); the Sep cac (2102.25, fair value -10.09) moves to "front month" today, but the volume shan't until tomorrow (Fri). Wholesale Inventories come due at 07:00 PT.
08 Jun '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (16.830) is the strongest (+2.7%) of the BEGOS Markets, and has covered an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 150%. Running 2nd is Oil (51.00, +1.1%) followed by Copper (2.0685, +0.8%), the latter's daily MACD still to the positive side such that its Market Rhythm Target remains at 2.1760. The balance of the bunch are also all presently higher, (the Dollar [93.620] falling for the 5th straight day). The Swiss (1.0403) is at its highest level since 05 May. Gold (1256.6) is now making session highs, but unlike Silver, the EDTR tracing is just 67%. No Econ Baro data due.
07 Jun '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: We're nixed the Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 50.11, tar 46.20) as the daily Parabolics just swung to positive moments ago; the Target for Copper (cur 2.0685, tar 2.1760) remains alive, its daily MACD still positive; but trade of the red metal has been decidedly down overnight to Market Profile support at 2.0700 on an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 147%; 'tis the weakest (-2.3%) of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed on moderate volatility. PMs are lower, yet their "Baby Blues" have notched higher. Revision to Q1 Productivity: 05:30 PT; Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
06 Jun '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain as follows: Copper (cur 2.1305, tar 2.1760) per the positive daily MACD, and Oil (cur 49.17, tar 46.20) per the negative daily Parabolics. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Up the most is Oil at +0.6% whilst down the most are the Bond (166^14), Euro (1.13480) and Gold (1244.5), all -0.2%. The Gold Update depicts price having recovered 7 days of losses in 7 minutes on Friday after weak May payrolls, with the Fed and Brexit vote in the offing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for Gold and Silver (16.445) are curling up.
03 Jun '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1140) is on the move, +2.3% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 140%; the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 is in place, the daily MACD histogram at its highest level since crossing positive on 26 May. Far more subtle is the balance of the BEGOS Markets: both Oil (49.08) and the Spoo (2104.25) are basically "unch", the latter's EDTR tracing just 16%; Oil still has its Target of 46.20 as the daily Parabolics remain Short. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to curl upward. Payrolls/Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc)/FactOrdrs 07:00 PT.
02 Jun '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, the largest change presently being Copper (2.0640), -0.4%; the daily MACD on the red metal remains positive and thus its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 is still viable; at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" continue to ascend. Oil's (48.90) daily Parabolics have flipped to Short for a Target of 46.20. Pending Long signals appear en route to being triggered in the next few sessions on the Euro's (1.11940) daily Parabolics, the Swiss' (1.0129) daily Moneyflow, and Silver's (15.995) daily Parabolics. ECB: 04:45 PT; ADP: 05:15 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT.
01 Jun '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold (1220.4) made its Market Rhythm Target of 1221.7; but more broadly, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) may begin to curl upward from here, the yellow metal indicating a 2nd consecutive up day, as is the case for the EuroCurrencies. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with strength in the Bond (163^17) which has overcome trading resistance at 162^30 (see Market Profiles), the EuroCurrencies and Gold; the weak links are Copper (2.0645, -1.0%), Oil (48.42, -0.8%), and the Spoo (2087.50, -0.3%). ADP delayed 1 day; ISM(Mfg) & Construction due @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '16, 05:12 Pacific Time: Website error (see 04:34 comment) resolved. ...m...
31 May '16, 04:53 Pacific Time: The "2-day" Globex session continues, the PMs coming off pressure endured during Sunday evening. Gold's (1214.1) 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Long (from an entry level of 1211.7), for which we've a Market Rhythm Target of 1221.7. Silver (16.090) is the weakest component, -1.0%, but off its session low of 15.915. Up the most is the Swiss (1.0111) at +0.5%; 'tis now also the most rangy, its EDTR tracing being 107%, ahead of the Euro's (1.11645, +0.4%) 98% tracing. Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT; then Chi PMI @ 06:45 PT & Consumer Confidence @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: There has been a Website error over the last few sessions in the "Next Session Range Guesstimates" for BEGOS Markets highs and lows; this is a function of slowly bringing the Japanese Yen into the fold; the error ought be corrected by day's end. A date for the Yen's debut on the Website still has yet to be determined. Thanks for everyone's interest and patronage. ...m...
30 May '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: US and UK bourses are closed, but the "2-day" Globex session is on and active, the volatility in BEGOS Markets being moderate-to-robust. The PMs are both weaker and the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leaders: Silver (16.025) is -1.4% with a 93% tracing; Gold (1212.2) is -0.3% with an 83% tracing; Gold's 8-hr. Parabolics would presently swing to Long should 1213.6 trade. Copper (2.0995) is -0.5%, but its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760 is supported as the daily MACD is further positive. Globex halts from 10:00 PT to 15:00 PT in honouring our fallen military heroes.
27 May '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with most just either side of "unch". The exceptions are Copper (2.1180) +0.9% and Oil (49.11) -0.6%. Copper's daily MACD has confirmed to positive for a Market Rhythm Target of 2.1760, (the price at confirm being 2.1000). At Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" are swinging back up; those for the EuroCurrencies and PMs are well down and prices are near the lows of their Market Profiles. 2nd look at Q1 GDP due at 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment (revised) at 07:00 PT. Yellen award/interview at 10:15 PT.
26 May '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: As anticipated, we've nixed the Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (cur 2089.28, tar 1994.50) as the daily Moneyflow has crossed above 50 (scale 0-100). 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, but volatility is light-to-moderate, the narrowest component being Oil (49.84) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 29%. Silver (16.490) is up the most at +0.9%. Cac volume is moving for the Bond (Jun 163^19) into Sep (162^06), and for Gold (Jun 1229.1) into Aug (1231.8): 1st Notice for both markets is Tue (31 May). Durables due @ 05:30 PT; Pending Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
25 May '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: The new Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 49.20, tar 45.50) was quickly nixed as of 12:00 PT yesterday as the 12-hr. Parabolics swiftly reversed to Long; our Target for the Spoo (cur 2082.00, tar 1994.50) looks to get nixed, the daily Moneyflow just a hair sub-50. Copper's (2.0810) daily MACD may cross to positive for a fresh Target by week's end. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, the components mixed with Copper leading to the upside at +0.7% and Gold (1221.5) to the downside at -0.5%. Our Market Magnets page shows Gold as negatively astray as 'tis been in 3 months.
24 May '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: We've a new Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 47.93, tar 45.50), its 12-hr. Parabolics having flipped to Short; still alive is our Target for the Spoo (cur 2052.25, tar 1994.50), its sub-50 daily Moneyflow reading at 43. Only the Spoo and Copper (2.0715) are in the black for the BEGOS Markets; volatility is moderate. Gold (1242.2) is testing the lower bounds of its 1240-1280 resistance zone; Silver (16.310) has retraced almost all of its rally that was strongly sparked back on 19 Apr; Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in free fall. New Home Sales due @ 07:00 PT.
23 May '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Moderate is the volatility for the BEGOS Markets in starting the week, with 6 of the 8 components in the red: weakest is Oil (47.82, -1.4%) followed by Silver (16.375, -1.9%). Only the Bond (164^14) and Swiss (1.0110) are marginally higher at best. The Spoo's (2047.25) daily Moneyflow continues to track sub-50 (cur 37) such that the 1994.50 Market Rhythm Target remains. Gold's (1250.2) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now down to 0% in real-time, the 21-day LinReg trend thus flat. Q1 Earnings Season is done: 'tis the 3rd in-a-row with 50% or less y-o-y improvement.
20 May '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: From our Market Rhythms page, one of the best currently listed there is Silver's (16.565) 4-hr. Parabolics: that study has recorded follow-through of at least $1,300/cac (0.260 points) in 8 of the last 10 signals, the 2 failures not reaching that amount still finishing in the black. That Market Rhythm could flip to Long in the next session or two. The BEGOS Markets are comparatively quiet, volatility essentially light and net changes mostly muted. The Spoo's (2042.75) daily Moneyflow is at 31 (scale 100-0), keeping the 1994.50 Market Rhythm Target in place. Existing Homes at 07:00 PT.
19 May '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: As anticipated the last 2 days, Gold's (1254.8) Market Rhythm Target of 1295.0 was nixed, the 8-hr. MACD confirming as negative yesterday at 08:00 PT. Otherwise, the Spoo's (2038.00) Target of 1994.50 remains intact, the daily Moneyflow now further down to 32 (scale 100-0). Again, we presently have all 8 BEGOS Markets in the red, the Dollar (95.265) firming. Silver (16.660) is off the most at -1.6%, followed by Oil (47.77) at -1.4%. Least weak is the Euro (1.12085), -0.1%. Q2 Earnings Season is winding down, only 50% improving their y-o-y quarter. Philly Fed & LEI at 07:00 PT.
18 May '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is spanning the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the rangiest being Copper (2.0585) with a 107% tracing, the narrowest being the Bond (165^13) with just a 29% tracing. Similar to this time yesterday, 7 of the 8 components are down, Oil (Jul 49.03) being the only market in the black at +0.1%; (1st notice for the Jun cac is Tue, 24 May). Gold's (1275.5) has not seen its 8-hr. MACD go negative; close that 'tis to so doing, the Market Rhythm Target of 1295.0 is still on the board. No EconBaro data due today. FOMC 27 Apr Minutes: 11:00 PT.
17 May '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold's (1274.7) 8-hr. MACD is still positive, but only barely so such that its Market Rhythm Target of 1295.0 may get nixed should the yellow metal have a down day. The Target for the Spoo (cur 2061.00, tar 1994.50) remains viable, the sub-50 daily Moneyflow reading presently 39. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and all 8 components are down, but none by more than -0.5%, that being Copper (2.0815). The Dollar (94.555) is firm. Cac volume in Jun Oil (47.73) moving into the Jul cac (48.37) over the next 24 hours. CPI and Housing Starts @ 05:30PT; IndPrd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
16 May '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.13265) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 1.13145. The Spoo's (2044.50) Target of 1994.50 remains in place, the daily Moneyflow reading (scale 100-0) down to 30, the lowest since 25 Jan; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to descend. Gold (1283.2) has a new Target of 1295.0, the 8-hr. MACD having crossed to positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, the upside leaders being Oil (47.16, +1.7%), Silver (17.340, +1.2%) and Gold (+0.7%). The Swiss (1.0249) and Bond (166^17) are marginally lower. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
13 May '16, 06:35 Central Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) on light-to-moderate volatility ahead of a slew of EconData. The PMs are leading up with Silver (17.150, +0.9%) and Gold (1275.4, +0.8%); both have the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 68% each. Weakest is Oil (46.18, -0.5%). Market Rhythm Targets remain for the Spoo (cur 2053.25, tar 1994.50) and the Euro (cur 1.13600, tar 1.13145). The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop in real-time; those for the Euro are lower. PPI & Retail Sales @ 07:30 CT; Bus Invs & UofM Sentiment @ 09:00 CT.
12 May '16, 06:36 Central Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 46.62, tar 41.13) was nixed yesterday upon the 12-hr. Parabolics flipping to the LongSide; ('tis still a viable Rhythm, but we shan't chase it to the upside; Oil's "Baby Blues" [see Market Trends] are faltering a bit); still in place are the other 2 Targets for the Spoo (cur 2069.75, tar 1994.50) as its daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0) and for the Euro (cur 1.14070, tar 1.13145) per its negative 8-hr. MACD. The Spoo is firmer (+0.5%) following yesterday's fallout, but the "Baby Blues" continue to drop. Ex/Im pricing: 07:30 CT.
11 May '16, 03:42 Pacific Time: A more docile session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are higher, save for the Spoo (2073.00, -0.2%). Copper (2.1190, +1.1%) is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 72%. The strongest components is Silver, (17.405, +1.5%), its EDTR tracing at 71%. The Euro (1.14010) is the most subtle member, +0.1%, its EDTR tracing at just 37%. The 3 open Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: Oil (cur 44.67, tar 41.13), the Spoo (tar 1994.50), and the Euro (tar 1.13145). Incoming EconData is quiet, but backloaded into week's end.
10 May '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2058.75) is leading the otherwise moderate volatility thus far for the BEGOS Markets; the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing for the Spoo is 101%; that said, no one component is presently changed up or down by more than 0.4%. 3 Market Rhythm Targets remain open as follows: Oil (cur 43.25, tar 41.13), the Spoo (tar 1994.50), and the Euro (cur 1.13870, tar 1.13145). Despite the Spoo being higher, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower (-20% in real-time). Copper's (2.1010) "Baby Blues" are down to 0%. Wholesale Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
09 May '16, 04:44 Pacific Time: Moderate volatility starts the week for the BEGOS Markets with Copper (2.1210) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 95%, the red metal is -1.4%, the weakest of the bunch. Strongest is Oil (45.29), +1.6%, with less of an EDTR tracing at 52%. The three open Market Rhythm Targets remain for Oil (tar 41.13) per the ShortSide 12-hr. Parabolics, the Euro (cur 1.13920, tar 1.13145) per the negative 8-hr. MACD, and the Spoo (cur 2058.75, tar 1994.50) per the sub-50 daily Moneyflow. In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) of the Spoo are in sub-0% territory.
06 May '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT. The Bond (165^24) reached its Market Rhythm Target of 165^03. Still open is the Target for Oil (cur 43.96, tar 41.13). Two new Targets have been added: 1) the Spoo (cur 2038.75, tar 1994.50) given the daily Moneyflow having gone sub-50 (scale 100-0), and 2) the Euro (cur 1.14380, tar 1.13145) as its 8-hr. MACD has crossed to negative. Oil is off the most at -1.2%; the balance of the bunch are either side of "unch" by less than 0.3%. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are down to 0%.
05 May '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0384) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings thus far at 105% in what is otherwise moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. Weakest is Copper (2.1560) -1.2%: as suspected, its Market Rhythm Target of 2.3130 was nixed. Strongest is Oil (44.90), +1.9%, but its Target of 41.13 is still in place as the 12-hr. Parabolics remain to the ShortSide. The Spoo's (2052.00) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are poised to go sub-0% by week's end. Deep into Q1 Earnings Season, (1,743 having reported), 41% are worse year-over-year.
04 May '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, save for the Bond (164^01) at +0.1%. The Bond's Market Rhythm Target of 165^03 is in place, however Copper's (2.1980) Target of 2.3130 likely looks to be nixed as the daily MACD flirts with going negative; we've added a new Target for Oil (cur 43.76, tar 41.13) per the aforementioned 12-hr. Parabolics now confirmed to the ShortSide. Gold (1277.7) has moved back into the 1240-1280 "resistance" zone: we're anticipating that to morph into "support". Silver's (17.235) Market Profile support = 17.100. Much EconData from 05:15 PT - 07:00 PT.
03 May '16, 04:19 Pacific Time: The RBA's "surprise" rate cut (to a record low 1.75%) has empowered both the Bond (163^13) and EuroCurrencies to the demise of the Dollar (92.270) and the Spoo (2060.25). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss (1.0560) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 148%. The PMs are not getting as much notice as one would expect: they are the least volatile of the bunch. Oil's (44.33) 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short; confirm would come at 12:00 PT, from which time we'd set a Market Rhythm Target lower by 2.60 ($2,600/cac).
02 May '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Nikkei's 3% slide is not continuing into Western bourses; 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate. The weak link is Oil (45.91, -0.2%). The PMs are the upside leaders with Gold (1301.0) +0.5% and Silver (17.940), +0.3%; both PMs are the volatility leaders, having traced better than 50% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Open Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for Copper (cur 2.2880, tar 2.3130) and the Bond (cur 163^14, tar 165.03); the Bond's daily Moneyflow (44) is on pace to cross above 50 in the day or so. ISM(Mfg) & Construction due @ 07:00 PT.
29 Apr '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (cur 1.14110, tar 1.12150) is nixed, the daily Parabolic flipping to the LongSide. Copper's (2.2740) Target of 2.3130 remains supported by the positive daily MACD. We've added a Target for the Bond (cur 162^20, tar 165^03), its 12-hr. Parabolics having flipped to the LongSide. BEGOS Markets volatility is running moderate-to-robust with strength in the Metals, Eurocurrencies and Oil (46.37). Gold (1278.3) has topped the 1240-1280 resistance zone (high 1283.0). The EconBaro to receive 6 incoming data inputs from 05:30-07:00 PT.
28 Apr '16, 04:18 Pacific Time: Readers ought scroll down to our menu link at left and click on "The S&P 500 -- Moneyflow": the oscillators across the foot of the graphic are about as negative as we've every seen them. Expected easing from the BOJ was not announced, sending the ¥en soaring and thus Gold (1257.6) is our strongest BEGOS Market, +0.8% with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing as well at 128%. Weakest is the Spoo (2077.75), -0.7% with the 2nd widest EDTR tracing at 121%. The Euro's (1.13595) Market Rhythm Target (1.12150) may get nixed today. 1st look at Q1 GDP: 05:30 PT.
27 Apr '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Volatility is at best moderate before the Fed, with all but 2 of the BEGOS Markets to the plus side, led by Silver (17.335, +1.0%), its cac volume moving from May into Jul (17.375); the white metal has scampered up from the 17.000-16.250 (May cac) Market Profile "chasm". Weakest is Copper (Jul 2.2295, -1.2%), but its daily MACD remains positive, keeping our Market Rhythm Target in place at 2.3130. The Euro's (1.13230) Target of 1.12150 is also still in place, the daily Parabolics remaining to the ShortSide. Pending Homes: 07:00; FOMC: 11:00 PT (no press conference).
26 Apr '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Another session of moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, 7 of which are just either side of "unch"; the exception is Copper (Jul 2.2330) at -1.0%. The red metal's cac volume is moving from May into Jul, for which our Market Rhythm Target is still 2.3130 as the daily MACD remains positive. The Target for the Euro (1.12965) of 1.12150 is still in play as price remains below the declining daily Parabolics. Silver (16.970) is basically on its 16.950 apex (see Market Profiles), still with a notably "chasm" down to 16.200. Durables due at 05:30 PT, then Consumer Confidence at 07:00 PT.
25 Apr '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed (4 up, 4 down) and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Oil (43.33, -1.0%) and firmest is the Swiss (1.0282, +0.4%). Open Market Rhythm Targets remain for both the Euro (cur 1.12730, tar 1.12150) per its daily Parabolics, and Copper (Jul cur 2.2630, tar 2.3130) per its daily MACD. The Gold Update highlights Silver's (16.870) 12% increase for the last 2 months vs. Gold's (1235.0) net change of 0%. The S&P's (2091.58) page for Moneyflow shows a sharp drop-off. FOMC rate decision on Wednesday; a backloaded week of EconData; New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
22 Apr '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: Overnight speculation of BOJ negative rate lending to banks hasn't significantly affected the BEGOS Markets, the volatility running light-to-moderate. The upside leader is Silver (17.225, +1.3%), which is also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 76%. The weakest link is the Bond (162^22), off just -0.1% with an EDTR tracing of 36%. The Euro (1.12920) is maintaining a Market Rhythm Target of 1.12150, and Copper (Jul 2.2650) continues to Target 2.3130. 10% of the way into Q1 Earnings Season, only 57% have bettered their y-o-y quarter.
21 Apr '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Bond (162^27) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 163^14; our two open targets are for the Euro (cur 1.13305, tar 1.12150) per its negative daily Parabolics, and for Copper (Jul 2.2610, tar 2.3130) per its positive daily MACD. The PMs continue their leadership in BEGOS Markets volatility, Silver (17.370) with a 174% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, and Gold (1260.7) with a 107% tracing. All 3 BEGOS Metals are presently the upside leaders: Silver +2.5%, Gold +1.2%, Copper +1.2%. The Bond is the weakest, -0.4%. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi + Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; LEI: 07:00 PT.
20 Apr '16, 04:37 Pacific Time: Again, Silver (17.075) is the leader in volatility which overall is moderate for the BEGOS Markets; with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 101%, Silver (+0.6%) yesterday returned to the 17 handle for the 1st time since last June. Gold (1250.0, -0.1%) is 2nd in EDTR tracings at 70%. Oil (41.79) is the downside leader, -1.5%. Negative daily Parabolics are maintaining Market Rhythm Targets for both the Bond (cur 165^10, tar 163^14) and Euro (cur 1.13885, tar 1.12150). Add to those Copper (Jul 2.2230, tar 2.3130) per its positive daily MACD crossing. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
19 Apr '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (16.675) is leading a moderate-to-robust session in volatility for the BEGOS Markets: the white metal is +2.7% and has traced 185% of its EDTR; 2nd rangiest is Gold (1243.6, +0.8%) with a 111% tracing; 2nd highest in change is Oil (41.88, +1.0%). Just 2 of the 8 components are in the red: Copper (2.1495, -0.7%) and the Bond (165^07, -0.2%). The latter's Market Rhythm Target is still 163^14, whilst that for the Euro (1.13480) is still 1.12150. With the exception of Copper, the balance of the 21-day LinReg trends are all positive. Housing/Permits come due @ 05:30 PT.
18 Apr '16, 04:46 Pacific Time: Oil (38.80) is the dominant mover (-4.0%) amongst the otherwise docile BEGOS Markets; Oil has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and volume has begun flowing into the June cac from that of May, (1st notice for which is this Fri, 22 Apr). Gold (1239.5) and the Swiss (1.0387) are the upside leaders, both +0.3%. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for both the Bond (cur 166^07, tar 163^14) and the Euro (cur 1.13265, tar 1.12150). Barely underway, Q1 Earnings Season is off to a mediocre start (44% bettering the y-o-y quarter thus far). NAHB Housing at 07:00 PT.
15 Apr '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.13050) daily Parabolics have flipped to Short for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.12150; the same study on the Bond (165^26) remains in place with its Target of 163^14. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, Oil (40.48) being off the most at -2.3% and the rangiest of the components with an 82% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges, which have been notably in decline); Copper (2.1485) is 2nd-weakest -0.9%; the balance of the bunch are only modestly changed up or down. NY Empire Index: 5:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
14 Apr '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Bond's (165^10) daily Moneyflow is barely above the 50 border (scale 100-0), but the daily Parabolics have confirmed a flip to Short, giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 163^14. Negative 4-hr. MACDs on both Gold (1242.1) and Silver (16.150) are seeing downside price follow-through. Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is moderate, and again, 6 of the 8 components are down, the only two up this time being Oil (41.86, +0.6%) and the Swiss (1.0382, +0.1%). Silver is the weakest -0.6%. The Spoo's (2075.00) "Baby Blues" still defy the uptrend. CPI: due in at 05:30 PT.
13 Apr '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, the exception being the EuroCurrencies, both of whose EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings have exceeded 100%. 6 of the 8 components are down, save for Copper (2.1575, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2066.50, +0.5%); the latter's daily Moneyflow did not cross sub-50 ('tis presently 65); however, the same study for the Bond (165^00) is down to 51. We've noted of late the 4-hr. (240mn) studies on the PMs: Silver's (16.075) 4-hr. MACD is poised to cross negative. PPI and Retail Sales at 05:30 PT; Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
12 Apr '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2039.25) daily Moneyflow is poised to cross sub-50 (scale 100-0) in the next day or two; should that be confirmed, we'd expect a Market Rhythm Target of 52 points lower ($2,600/cac) from the opening price following the confirming session; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall, (in real-time as well even with price presently +0.3%). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust with Copper (2.1085) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 112%; the red metal is up the most of the bunch at +1.3%. Ex/Im pricing: due at 05:30 PT.
11 Apr '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver (15.580) is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the white metal +1.4%, followed by Gold (1251.7), +0.9%; in real-time, Silver is printing its 1st up move in its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) since 23 March. Save for the Spoo (2048.00) which is +0.3%, yet its "Baby Blues" working lower, the balance of the BEGOS bunch are mildly down; volatility is moderate. At Market Rhythms, both the Bond (165^21) and Swiss (1.0492) are presently sporting a variety of studies to observe for signals. The week is backloaded for incoming EconData; Q1 Earnings Season starts today.
08 Apr '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: Moderate is the BEGOS Markets volatility, 6 of the components being down, save for Oil (38.60, +2.9%) and the Spoo (2046.00, +0.5%). Both of those markets also have the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 83% for the Spoo and 80% for Oil. The PMs are the weakest of the bunch with Gold (1236.3) -0.5% and Silver (15.175) -0.4%; and whilst their 21-day LinReg trends remain down, specific to Gold, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now higher for the 4th consecutive session. More on that in tomorrow's Gold Update. Whsl Invs come due at 07:00 PT.
07 Apr '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: Resilience remains for the PMs with Gold (1239.0) and Silver (15.240) both +1.2% as the firmest 2 markets in BEGOS. Volatility is moderate-to-robust with Copper (2.1045) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%, followed by the Euro (1.14190) at 104%. We've presently no open Market Rhythm Targets; Oil's (37.79) daily Price Oscillator has stalled, just barely positive without having crossed to negative; again, mind the Market Rhythms page to see which ones have been the best performers in anticipation of their next signals. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
06 Apr '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light, except for the Swiss (1.0445) which has traced 71% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). 6 of the 8 components are in the red, save for Oil (36.95, +1.1%) and the Spoo (2042.75, just above "unch"). At Market Trends, Gold's (1226.6) "Baby Blues" have notched higher for the first time in almost a month (08 Mar), albeit the 21-day LinReg trend is firmly down. At Market Rhythms, Copper's (2.1340) daily MACD in its last 10 consecutive tests had follow-though 9 times by at least $2,000/cac (0.0800 points). 16 Mar FOMC Minutes due at 11:00 PT.
05 Apr '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil (35.58) per its negative 12-hr. Price Oscillator has made its Market Rhythm Target of 35.81; that said, as we'd noted, the daily Price Oscillator is nearing its own negative cross, from which (if confirmed) would point to another $2,800/cac (2.80 points) lower, as is currently listed on our Market Rhythms page. For the PMs, the 4-hr. Rhythms for both Gold's (1233.9) Parabolics and Silver's (15.145) MACD confirmed shifting to positive at 04:00 PT. BEGOS Markets volatility borders on robust; the Spoo (2044.25) is the weakest -0.6%. Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
04 Apr '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Copper (2.1625) has made its Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595; Oil's (36.68) Target of 35.81 remains in place, reinforced by the 12-hr. Price Oscillator reaching its lowest level since the signal was triggered last Thursday; further, Oil's daily Price Oscillator is trending towards a negative cross in the next session or two. No one BEGOS Market is presently changed by more than 0.5% either way and overall volatility is moderate at best. The most docile component is the Bond (164^28), practically "unch" with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of just 28%. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
01 Apr '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: Q2 arrives with a big data day including Econ Baro metrics for payrolls, ISM(Mfg), Construction, UofM sentiment and vehicle sales. With the Nikkei -3.6%, the only strength in the BEGOS Markets is in the EuroCurrencies; volatility is light-to-moderate with the data in the balance. Copper's (2.1850) daily MACD is lower still, the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595 still alive; and we've added a Target for Oil (cur 37.55, tar 35.81), its 12-hr. Price Oscillator having gone negative (from 38.01). The best Market Rhythms of late for the Precious Metals are on the 4-hr. (240-min.) time frame.
31 Mar '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: In closing quarter's end, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with weakness in the Spoo (2054.25), Oil (38.26) and most so in Copper (2.1740), the latter being -0.6% and closing in on the Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595, (low = 2.1660 and the "guesstimate" low if a down day = 2.1525); in real-time, Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have reached down to 0% and ought go negative near-term. Silver (15.415) leads to the upside at +1.3%, today's strengths showing in the Precious Metals, EuroCurrencies and the Bond (163^27). Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT.
30 Mar '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: As anticipated, the Bond's (164^07) Market Rhythm Target of 160^07 did get nixed, the daily Price Oscillator crossing to positive as all 8 BEGOS Markets surged on the Yellen ECNY remarks, to the demise of the Dollar (94.890); the Euro's (1.13520) 12-hr. Parabolics too have provisionally flipped to Long, which nixes the 1.11150 Target; Copper (2.2005) is working lower, increasing the depth of its daily MACD in maintaining the Target of 2.1595. Components' volatility is moderate, and Oil (38.96) the upside winner at +1.2%. ADP Employment data comes due at 05:15 PT.
29 Mar '16, 04:15 Pacific Time: After a very narrow day yesterday, volatility is moving up to moderate for the BEGOS Markets: Copper (2.2115) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 87%; the daily MACD is increasingly negative and our Market Rhythm Target remains 2.1595. The Bond's (163^24) daily Price Oscillator, whilst still negative, is now only barely so such that the Target of 160^07 may get nixed in the next day or two. The Euro's (1.12400) 12-hour Parabolics continue as Short, the Target in place there for 1.11150. Consumer Confidence due at 07:00 PT; Yellen before the ECNY at 09:20 PT.
28 Mar '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: A subdued start to what ought morph into a very robust week, (major non-US bourses are still closed). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light. Market Rhythm Targets remain in place for the Bond (cur 162^22, tar 160^07) per its still-negative daily Price Oscillator, and for Copper (cur 2.2285, tar 2.1595) per its newly negative daily MACD. The same study for the Spoo (2034.50) is close to crossing negatively; the Euro's (1.11845) 12-hour Parabolics have flipped to Short for a Target (ideally from 1.12030) of 1.11150. Personal Inc/Spd due at 05:30 PT; Pending Homes due at 07:00 PT.
24 Mar '16, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil (38.80) is off the most in BEGOS at -2.4%, followed by Copper (2.2070) at -1.4%; the other 6 components are neither 1% in either direction and overall volatility is moderate. Copper's daily MACD is confirmed as negative (ideally from 2.2395) setting up a Market Rhythm Target of 2.1595; the Target for the Bond (163^23) is still 160^07 as the daily Price Oscillator remains negative. For the Spoo (2017.00), its daily MACD may confirm as negative by session's end. Durables: 05:30 PT. Major bourses (ex-Japan) closed tomorrow. Final Q4 GDP tomorrow at 05:30 PT.
23 Mar '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, all 8 of which at this instant are in the red. Off the most, and the most rangy, are the Precious Metals, with Silver (15.660, -1.5%), its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being 88%, and Gold (1232.7, -1.3%), its EDTR tracing being 76%. The Spoo's (2040.25) daily high has come after its low for the past 5 sessions with little net gain in the past 3; mind the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as they traverse the ceiling. Copper's (2.2865) daily MACD again appears close to a negative cross. New Homes at 07:00 PT.
22 Mar '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Gold (1252.8, +0.7%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%, and Silver (15.995 , +0.8% is up the most of the bunch, this despite the Dollar (95.590, +0.2%) rising and the EuroCurrencies dropping in response to the Brussels bombings (00:00 PT, 08:00 CET). The Bond (162^05, +0.2%) is getting a bid, yet the daily Price Oscillator is still negative, supporting our 160^07 Market Rhythm Target; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are curling upward, but the 21-day LinReg trend is down and the 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short.
21 Mar '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: Oil (40.84, -0.7%) and Gold (1249.0, -0.6) are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, the new week starting with, at best, moderate volatility: at Market Ranges you can see notable narrowing in the EDTRs for Oil, the Spoo (2037.25, "unch") and the Bond (163^07, "unch"). Still, the Bond's daily Price Oscillator is negative and thus the Market Rhythm Target 160^07 maintained. Both Silver (15.865) and Copper (2.2940) are +0.3%, the most in BEGOS. The Gold Update points out price's churning of late within the 1240-1280 "resistance zone". Existing Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
18 Mar '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with weakness in the EuroCurrencies and Gold (1255.0 -0.3%), countered by strength in Silver (16.035, +0.6%) and moreover in Oil (42.29, +1.5%). The Bond (163^15) has been working contra to its still negative daily Price Oscillator, other of its measures having flipped positive (daily Parabolics and 6-hr. Price Oscillator), and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) notching higher in real-time; the 21-day LinReg trend remains down, so we'll keep the Market Rhythm Target alive for 160^07. UofM Sentiment comes due at 10:00 PT.
17 Mar '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver's (15.740) Market Rhythm Target of 15.195 was nixed upon the 4-hr. MACD swinging to positive yesterday, the 08:00-12:00 PT period encompassing the Precious Metals-bullish FOMC policy statement; the Bond (163^04) too is benefiting, but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative, the 160^07 Target still in place. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the one down component being the Spoo (2011.25, -0.3%). Up the most are the EuroCurrencies at +0.7%, both having traced over 110% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; LEI: 07:00 PT.
16 Mar '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain intact for the Bond (cur 161^29, tar 160^07 per its still negative daily Price Oscillator) and Silver (cur 15.300, tar 15.195 per its still negative 4-hr. MACD). Copper's (2.2350) daily MACD appears poised to cross negatively by week's end; at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" have just begun rolling over, as have those for Oil (37.08). At Market Values, Gold (1232.5) has returned to meet its smooth valuation line: the yellow metal was 167 points "high", dropping just 50 in closing the gap: FOMC - 11:00 PT; Yellen - 11:30 PT.
15 Mar '16, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (162^09), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, with volatility moderate across the board. Still, the Bond's daily Price Oscillator remains negative as does our Market Rhythm Target for 160^07. Silver's (15.340) MACD crossed to negative (at 08:00 PT yesterday from the 15.435 level) setting up a Target of 15.195. The Gold Update pointed to Gold's (1235.0) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as suggesting price vulnerability, which we've been getting, the 1240-1280 zone again being resistive. BOJ stands pat on policy with a gloomy outlook. 7 Baro metrics by 07:00 PT.
14 Mar '16, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed (4 up, 4 down) on light-to-moderate volatility, both the Bond (161^02) and Spoo (2006.75) having traced just 21% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Copper (2.2470) leads the tracings at 84%, but off the most is Oil (37.68) at -2.1%; Silver (15.660) leads to the upside at +1.0%. The Bond's daily Price Oscillator is lower still and thus we're maintaining its Market Rhythm Target of 160^07. The Euro's (1.11455) big pop from Thu continues to work off: price remains high vis-à-vis its Market Magnet. FOMC + 18 Baro metrics this week.
11 Mar '16, 04:20 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (Jun 1.0185, tar 0.9910) was soundly nixed yesterday as reaction to the ECB firmed the daily Moneyflow above the 50 level (scale 0-100); our Target for the Bond (cur 162^10, tar 160^07) is still in place, the daily Price Oscillator continuing to work lower. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (Jun 1.11480) still very much in play in having traced 109% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Oil (38.73) is up the most of the bunch at +1.9%; the Precious Metals are mildly lower. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT.
10 Mar '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is essentially light, but the components ought be on the move given an ECB Monetary Policy Decision that is almost imminent at 4:45 PT followed by Draghi's press conference at 05:30 PT. The Swiss' (1.0020) daily Moneyflow has crept above 50: were that to be confirmed by session's end, 'twould nix our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). The Bond (163^17) is getting a bid, but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative for a Target of 160^07. The Spoo (1997.00) front month moves to Jun (1988.00), (volume will lag until Fri).
09 Mar '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: Let's set for the Bond (162^26) that suggested Market Rhythm Target for 160^07 as the daily Price Oscillator stayed negative despite yesterday's rally. Still in place is the Swiss (1.0001) Target for 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac); Mon 14 Mar is "1st Position", so rolling may be in order. Gold's (1253.3) 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative for a potential downside run of 10.0 points ($1,000/cac) post-12:00 PT; mind too Gold's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate: Oil (37.18) is up the most at +2.3%; the Bond is off the most at -0.7%.
08 Mar '16, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond's (163^17) daily Price Oscillator has confirmed a marginal cross to negative (from the session's opening price of 162^10, which makes the present level appear a more attractive entry were we to set a Market Rhythm Target for 160^07); but if the Spoo (1990.25) is topping, the Bond could get the bid, reverting the daily Price Oscillator back to positive; so some caution there. The Swiss (1.0063) daily Moneyflow is at 48 with the Target still 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, which are again split (4 up, 4 down). No data due.
07 Mar '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: Save for the ECB come Thu (10 Mar), this is a very light week for incoming Econ Data; the BEGOS Markets begin mixed (4 up, 4 down) on light-to-moderate volatility. Most rangy is the Swiss (1.0004) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 91%; the daily Moneyflow is 40, thus being sub-50 keeping our Market Rhythm Target alive for 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac), (again, "1st position" is 14 Mar). The Bond's (161^31) daily Price Oscillator is provisionally crossing to negative; if confirmed, a Target for some 2^04 points lower (about $2,100/cac) could be initiated.
04 Mar '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility runs the range from light-to-robust, with Silver (15.430) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 117%; the Spoo (1994.00) is the most docile of the bunch with just a 23% tracing. The Swiss (1.0078) has firmed this week, but the daily Moneyflow still remains sub-50 (47), so our Market Rhythm Target is still in place at 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). Gold (1265.2) has made a new high (1275.9) for the year, indeed a 13-month high; again our 1280 high target for 2016 now appears modest. Spoo target still the low 1400s. Payrolls data due 05:30 PT.
03 Mar '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Volatility is even lighter that at this time yesterday for the BEGOS Markets; indeed the widest change presently is for Gold (1243.5) at just +0.2%; 6 metrics of Econ Data will hit the Econ Baro by 07:00 PT. The Swiss (Mar 1.0043) daily moneyflow is still sub-50, thus our Market Rhythm Target remains for 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac). The Euro (1.08935) has confirmed the negative 13/89 EMA crossing; we shan't set a Target there, but 'twould be about for $2,000/cac lower (to 1.07100) from the session's open of 1.08700 . ISM(Svc)/FactOrdrs at 07:00 PT.
02 Mar '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper (2.1730) having traced 90% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), BEGOS Markets volatility is light as none of the 7 other components have traced even 50% of their EDTRs, the Bond (162^09) being the nearest at 44%; good doses of key Econ Data await, notably on Thu and Fri. The Swiss (Mar 1.0016) daily moneyflow has worked lower (35) in favour of our Market Rhythm Target (0.9863 Mar or 0.9910 Jun). The Euro (1.08565) is provisionally seeing its daily 13/89 daily EMA crossing negatively. ADP jobs data due at 05:15 PT; Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
01 Mar '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0019) confirmed its daily Moneyflow crossing sub-50 thus providing us a Market Rhythm Target either of 0.9863 (Mar cac) or 0.9910 (Jun cac); "1st position" is 14 Mar. BEGOS Market volatility is light-to-robust, the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being for Copper (2.1375) at 103%, the least rangy being the Euro (1.08770) at 35%. Upside leaders are Oil (34.28), Silver (15.055) and the Spoo (1946.00), all just either side of +1%. Gold's (1245.7) resilience is making its Market Value still appear "high" at +93 points. ISM(Mfg)/Construction come due at 07:00 PT.
29 Feb '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are 4 up and 4 down on moderate volatility: the Bond (164^19) and the 3 metals are higher; Oil (32.85), the Spoo (1939.00) and the 2 EuroCurrencies are lower. At Market Trends, note the weaker appearance of the Euro (1.08970) vs. the Swiss (0.9986); that said, the latter's daily Moneyflow is provisionally crossing sub-50, which if confirmed, may set up a Market Rhythm Target for a $2,000/cac run (-0.0160 points) from the next session's opening level. See The Gold Update for Gold's (1232.2) strong BEGOS Standings lead. Chi PMI/Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
26 Feb '16, 04:40 Pacific Time: Contrary to the prior comment, we're not setting a Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (1.10300) despite its 12-hr. Parabolics having confirmed as Long; the fresh data run suggests targeting an upside move of just $600/cac (from 1.10450 to 1.10930) and we avoid Targets < $1,000/cac for Market Rhythm positions. The BEGOS Markets are again mixed with volatility moderate ahead of a cavalcade of data which we'll pour into the Econ Baro after 07:00 PT. Copper (2.1155) is the upside leader at +1.4%. Only mild weakness in the Bond (166^13), Silver (15.155) and Swiss (1.0091).
25 Feb '16, 04:39 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.10480) 12-hr. Parabolics provisionally are flipping to Long: should they so confirm come 12:00 PT, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target that is .00880 ($1,100/cac) higher from the next period's opening price. 'Tis another mixed session on moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Copper (May 2.0985) off -1.2%; Gold (1233.2) is the rather meager upside leader at +0.3; the yellow metal still remains some +100 points above its BEGOS Market Value, which itself rising. Both Oil (32.01) and the Spoo (1933.00) are essentially smack on their Market Values.
24 Feb '16, 04:50 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with the Precious Metals and the Bond (167^24) getting the bids; Gold (1236.0) is the strongest component at +0.8% and Oil (30.83) the weakest at -1.7%. The Spoo (1898.75) at its present reading would pull the S&P (1921.27) down to 1902 come the stock market's opening. Volume in both Copper (2.0696) and Silver (15.340) will be moving into the May cacs into week's end, as will that for the Bond into the Jun cac: 1st notice for all 3 of them is Mon (29 Feb). Expectations are for lower New Home Sales at 07:00 PT.
23 Feb '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: We're not yet initiating a fresh Market Rhythm Target, but mind those studies at our Market Rhythms page which have been working the best. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, with not one component presently changed by at least 1% in either direction. Note: an "unch" Spoo (1935.75) suggests a -6 opening for the S&P (1945.50). Although Gold (1218.3) remains "high" at nearly +100 points above its BEGOS Market Value, the distance away from its Market Magnet is now unwound, without price having to have come off much. Confidence & Homes at 07:00 PT.
22 Feb '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.10365) has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.10680, the Dollar (97.510) getting a bid over Brexit and banking industry concerns; The Gold Update points to the risk of negative depository rates, whilst highlighting that Gold (1207.6) itself has resiliency, albeit 'tis still "high" vis-à-vis our Market Value page's near-term measure. Per the 18 Feb comment, Oil's (32.94) 12-hr. Moneyflow has crossed above the 50 level, but is presently kinking lower; Copper's (2.1185) daily Parabolics are provisionally flipping to Long. BEGOS Markets mixed on moderate-to-robust volatility.
19 Feb '16, 04:41 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, of which just 2 are in the red: (Oil 32.48, -0.8%) and the Spoo (1908.75, -0.5%). The Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics would presently flip to Short at 1906.25. Silver (15.470) just printed its session high as we type and at +0.4% is up the most of the 8 components. The Euro's (1.11160) daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, keeping our Market Rhythm Target of 1.10680 intact; at both our Market Trends and Euro pages, you can see the "Baby Blues" of trend consistency having started to roll over. CPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
18 Feb '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.0600) Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 has been nixed, the daily MACD confirmed as creeping back to positive. Meanwhile, the Euro's (1.11005) daily Parabolics flipped to Short for a Target (from 1.11480) of 1.10680. Oil's (Apr 33.76) 12-hr. Moneyflow is trending toward crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) by week's end. BEGOS Markets volatility is essentially light across the 8 components: the largest EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) is by Copper at just 50%. Gold (1207.5) continues to hold the 1200s: Market Profile support: 1193. Philly Fed comes due at 05:30 PT.
17 Feb '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: By the barest of margins, Copper's (2.0575) daily MACD remains negative and thus our Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 is being maintained; the red metal may be close to working lower upon the Spoo (1902.00) running out of puff given its Market Profile resistor at 1906. Save for the Bond (165^09) and Swiss (1.0107), the Balance of the BEGOS Markets are higher on moderate volatility: the upside leader is Oil (29.59, +1.6%); over the next 2 sessions, cac volume there shall move from Mar to Apr. PPI and Housing data come due at 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtil at 06:15 PT.
16 Feb '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue session continues with Gold (1214.9) leading the robust EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 202%; Gold's Market Profile shows support at 1192, the session's low, suggestive of resilience. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the weakest being Silver (15.415, -2.4%) and the strongest being Oil (29.90, +3.0%). Per yesterday, we're minding Copper's (2.0665) daily MACD toward possibly nixing the Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 at day's end. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
15 Feb '16, 04:23 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed for Presidents' Day, but the Sun-Tue GLOBEX session is robust in both changes and volatility. As The Gold Update again describes, Gold (1210.1) had gotten well ahead of itself and is now -2.3% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 129%; Silver (15.325) is -2.9% with a 146% EDTR tracing. Copper's (2.0675) daily MACD is provisionally back to positive, which if confirmed by the Tue close would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365. Upside leaders are Oil (30.04, +3.5%) and the Spoo (1889.25, +1.6%). EuroCurrencies working lower.
12 Feb '16, 04:47 Pacific Time: Gold (1237.8) yesterday in its 3rd best low-to-high day since 18 Sep 2013, reached well up into the 1240-1280 resistance zone, a staple these many months of The Gold Update. Copper's (May 2.0290) daily MACD has confirmed as negative for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.9365 on the May cac. Oil's (27.43) 12-hr. Moneyflow is low (4 on a scale of 0-100) so as to expect higher levels into next week. The BEGOS Markets are mixed on moderate volatility, with Copper, Oil and the Spoo (1842.75) to the upside. Retail Sales (5:30 PT) & UofM Sentiment (7:00 PT) highlight data.
11 Feb '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: For the 4th time since last August, the Spoo (1807.50) is poised (at this writing) to pull the SPX (1851.86) lower by at least 40 points, as negative rates and Yellen remarks underscore economic slowing. With BEGOS Markets volatility running moderate-to-very robust, the Precious Metals are getting the bid, Gold (1237.9) +3.4% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 261%; the 12-hr. Parabolic was quickly whipsawed back to Long. Silver (15.615) is +2.1% with an EDTR tracing of 141%. Copper's (2.0100) daily MACD is provisionally negative, confirm would be at day's end.
10 Feb '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0277) has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235; with Gold (1183.0) not surprisingly pulling back (see Market Values and prior 3 comment thereto as well as in The Gold Update), the 12-hr. Parabolic has provisionally flipped to Short; confirm would come at 12:00 PT, for a Target from there of 15.0 ($1,500/cac.) points lower. Trending toward a negative cross is Copper's (2.0270) daily MACD. Only Oil (28.55) and the Spoo (1867.25) are in the black, the balance of the 6 BEGOS Markets down ahead of Chair Yellen: Remarks @ 05:30 PT, House Testimony @ 07:00 PT.
09 Feb '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold (1192.6) has traded up through the 1200 milestone; again, per Market Values -- and Market Magnets -- (both also on the Gold page), mind the near-term extreme within the context of some pullback. The Swiss (1.0216) has neared its Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235, the daily Moneyflow level still above 50 (scale 0-100). BEGOS Market volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.0470) leading the ranginess with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 135%; 'tis also the weakest component -2.2%; watch our Market Ranges page in general. Wholesale Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 Feb '16, 04:29 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0066) continues above 50 (scale 0-100) such that our Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235 is intact; (mind the Market Rhythms page for those that have been working the best). Only 2 BEGOS Markets are in the black: Gold (1177.3, +0.3%) and the Bond (163^29, +0.2%); per The Gold Update as Gold closes in on 1200, we again point, (per our Market Values page), its high level relative to its interaction with the other 4 primary BEGOS components. Oil (30.08, -3.0%) is our weakest market followed by the Spoo (1849.00, -1.3%). No Econ Baro data due.
05 Feb '16, 04:43 Pacific Time: Gold (1160.3) has put in a "higher high" for the 4th consecutive session; tomorrow's edition of The Gold Update will again cite the 2015 year-end technical condition giving rise for a run into the 1200s; that said, per our Market Values page, Gold is at an extreme (+100 points) above its valuation line, (which may be viewed as a telling Gold positive). The Swiss' (1.0089) daily Moneyflow is confirmed above 50 (from a price of 1.0075) for a Market Rhythm Target of 1.0235. Oil (32.09) leads the session, +1.3%, but BEGOS Market Volatility is mostly light with payrolls data in the balance at 05:30 PT.
04 Feb '16, 04:48 Pacific Time: Oil (32.26) whipsawed its 12-hr. MACD back to positive thus nixing our Market Rhythm Target for 27.50. But Silver (14.765) made its Target of 14.715. The Swiss (1.0023) daily Moneyflow is provisionally crossing above the 50 level (scale (0-100) such that a Long signal may get triggered there by session's end, which would Target 0.0160 points higher ($2,000/cac) from the ensuing session's open. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, the Euro (1.1205) with a 117% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Productivity: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
03 Feb '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil (30.50) confirmed the negative cross of the 12-hr. MACD giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 27.50; Silver (14.400) has pushed up to its best level since last Thu (28 Jan), the daily Price Oscillator still positive in maintaining the Target of 14.715. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, with strength in Oil (+2.7%), Copper (2.0730, +1.3%) and Silver (+0.6%); the weak link is the Bond (162^22, -0.5%); the Bond has just traded below its Market Profile supporter at 164^24. The Spoo (1902.25) shows Profile resistors at 1906, 1918, 1931. ADP @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT.
02 Feb '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: Again we've moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. Silver's (14.270) Market Rhythm Target remains 14.715. Oil's (30.64) 12-hour MACD is provisionally crossing to negative; were we to get such confirmation at 12:00 PT, the Target would be 2.50 points lower ($2,500/cac) from that time; at our Market Profiles page, Oil's longest trading resistor is 31.60. The Spoo (1919.00) is presently poised to pull the S&P (1939.38) lower at its opening; at our Market Magnets page, the Spoo clearly appears too high relative to its Magnet. Vehicle Sales coming in today.
01 Feb '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Gold Update's BEGOS Market Standings place Gold (1122.9) at the top of the stack through January, +5.4%; Oil (32.56) takes last place, -9.0%. The Swiss (0.9805) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784; Silver's (14.305) daily Price Oscillator remains positive, the Target there still 14.715. The session's volatility is moderate and the components are mixed: the EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals are higher, the balance of the 4 lower. Oil is the weakest of the bunch at -3.5%. A full Econ Data week with Income/Spending at 05:30 PT, ISM(Mfg)/Construction at 07:00 PT.
29 Jan '16, 04:30 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets remain open for both the Swiss (cur 0.9804, tar 0.9784) per its still sub-50 daily Moneyflow (43), and Silver (cur 14.210, tar 14.715) per its still-positive daily Price Oscillator. Ahead of a barrage of Econ Data, volatility is running light-to-moderate in the BEGOS Markets, the gainers led by the Bond (161^12) and Spoo (1896.25) both +0.8%. The BOJ set a current deposits account interest rate to -0.1%, in turn also getting the Dollar (99.120) a bid. First peek at Q4 GDP due at 05:30 PT, followed by the Chi PMI at 06:45 PT and Michigan Sentiment at 07:00 PT.
28 Jan '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: Copper (2.0460) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 2.0730; both the Swiss (cur 0.9880, tar 0.9784) and Silver (cur 14.320, tar 14.715) have yet to make their Targets; the white metal is the most robust of the BEGOS Markets with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 146%, (price -1.2%). The balance of the bunch are mixed and volatility moderate. The Bond's (160^01) 12-hr. Price Oscillator looks to cross negatively perhaps by week's end. Q4 Earnings Season so far shows only 47% bettering a year ago. Gold rolling into April. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
27 Jan '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: With an FOMC "no change" in the balance at 11:00 PT, volatility in the BEGOS Markets is basically light, the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing exceeding 50% being that of Silver (14.405, 56%); 'tis also the weakest of an overall mixed bunch, -0.8%. Silver's Market Rhythm Target remains 14.715, as do those for Copper (cur 2.0405, tar 2.0730) and the Swiss (cur 0.9858, tar 0.9784). Our narrowest market is the Spoo (1886.00, -0.1%) with an EDTR tracing of 24%; the Spoo is centered in its Market Profile. Pre-Fed we've New Homes at 07:00 PT.
26 Jan '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: After yesterday's narrowings, BEGOS Markets volatility is now moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.0285) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 116%; the red metal's daily MACD has crossed to positive (from 1.9930) for a Market Rhythm Target of 2.0730. Silver's (14.360) daily Price Oscillator is now positive (from 14.255) for a Target of 14.715. The Swiss (0.9864) Target of 0.9784 is still in place. The Bond (159^25) and EuroCurrencies are lower, the balance of the 5 components higher, the leader being Oil (30.59, +2.7%). Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
25 Jan '16, 04:08 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9873) daily Moneyflow Short signal that triggered back on 06 Jan continues to be nursed, its sub-50 level at 33 and Market Rhythm Target at 0.9784. 2 new signals provisionally turning positive are Silver's (14.225) daily Price Oscillator and Copper's (2.0140) daily MACD, (confirmation would be at session's end). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, and only 2 of the components are lower: Oil (31.17) being the weakest -3.3%, and the Spoo (1895.75) -0.2%. The Precious Metals are the upside leaders, The Gold Update noting the weekly parabolic trend as now Long.
22 Jan '16, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. The Swiss (0.9899) is as low as 'tis been since early December, the daily Moneyflow at 34 and our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784 thus still alive. Oil (31.01) is the most robust of the bunch, +3.9%, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 90%; 2nd is the Spoo (1887.25), +1.4% with a 73% tracing. Silver's (14.140) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to positive, whilst Copper's (2.0120) daily MACD is gliding that way. Mind our link "The S&P 500: Moneyflow" for lower levels ahead. Home Sales & LEI @ 07:00 PT.
21 Jan '16, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Gold (cur 1101.6, tar 1102.6) was achieved yesterday. That for the Swiss (cur 0.9970, tar 0.9784) continues to be nursed, its sub-50 daily Moneyflow reading at 37: that could get shaken as we've the ECB at 04:45 PT, then Draghi at 05:30 PT. Silver's (14.060) daily Price Oscillator may turn positive by week's end. Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets Spectrum; changes are mixed. The Spoo (1844.00) is the most rangy, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 81%. Oil (28.01) again is our weakest market at -1.1%. Phil Fed @ 07:00 PT.
20 Jan '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold's (1097.9) 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed flipping Long yesterday at 12:00 PT from 1087.6; the Market Rhythm Target is 1102.6. The Target for the Swiss (0.9989, tar 0.9784) remains alive, the daily Moneyflow still sub-50 at 43. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracers being the Bond (160^18, 132%) and the Spoo (1838.75, 106%). Oil (28.58) is the weakest of the components, -2.9%, the Bond on top at +1.1%. The S&P (1881.33) would presently open down to 1846, but first we've CPI and Housing data at 05:30 PT.
19 Jan '16, 04:25 Pacific Time: Further into the Sunday-Tuesday session, the volatility is now moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (1.9980) leading the EDTR tracings at 169% and up the most of the components at +2.5%; tied for 2nd are Oil (31.16) and the Spoo (1905.75), both +1.6%; save for Silver (14.040,+0.9%), the balance of the bunch are lower by -0.2% to -0.6%. The Swiss' (0.9969) daily Moneyflow is 36.12, the 0.9784 Market Rhythm Target still in place. Gold's (1085.9) 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long, if confirmed suggesting an 1100 Target. NAHB @ 07:00 PT.
18 Jan '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, (StateSide physical bourses are closed), as the Sunday-Tuesday session is thus far mixed with no one component presently 1% in either direction away from its Friday settle. Oil (30.46) is the most rangy, its EDTR(see Market Ranges) tracing at 89%. The daily Moneyflow of the Swiss (0.9976) is still sub-50, and thus is its Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784. Gold's (1090.1) 12-hr. Parabolics would flip Long at 1095.4, that hurdle falling about 2.0 points/period. Early as 'tis in 2015 Q4 Earnings Season, just 10 of 27 reports are better than Q4 2014.
15 Jan '16, 04:46 Pacific Time: Copper (1.9420) has reached its Market Rhythm Target of 1.9425, leaving the Swiss (0.9982) as our remaining open signal, still targeting 0.9784 for as long as the daily Moneyflow remains confirmed sub-50. Per EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, volatility is running from light for Silver (13.840, tracing 31%) to robust for the Spoo (1882.75, 106%), Oil (29.48, 105%) and Copper (102%); those latter 3 BEGOS components are lower, the other 5 higher. This is a heavy Econ Data day with 9 metrics to effect the Econ Baro by 07:00 PT including data on Retail Sales and the PPI.
14 Jan '16, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Bond (158^11) achieved its Market Rhythm Target of 158^27; Copper (1.9590) "met" its Target of 1.9425, but did not trade down through it, so its remains open, as does that for the Swiss (cur 0.9989, tar 0.9784) per its daily Moneyflow still reading sub-50 (scale 100-0). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, the Euro (1.0929) tracing the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 88%. Oil (30.87) is again up the most of the components, +1.0%; Silver (14.060) is the weakest, -0.7%. Market Magnets suggest extreme diversions for the Bond, Oil and Spoo (1886.00).
13 Jan '16, 04:16 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets remain open as follows: Swiss (cur 0.9949, tar 0.9784), Copper (cur 1.9690, tar 1.9425) and the Bond (cur 157^07, tar 158^27). Gold (1082.7) has a couple of Rhythms pointing to the low 1070s that we shan't actually target. Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Gold to the downside, the other 4 higher. Oil is the strongest component, +1.6%; net changes for the balance are less than 1.0% either way. Albeit with just 10 Q4 Earnings Season reports so far, only 2 have bettered year-over-year.
12 Jan '16, 04:38 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (1.0025) daily Moneyflow is now 36 (scale 100-0), so the lower Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784 remains in place. We've a Target for Copper (1.9695) of 1.9425 (from 2.0225), given the negative daily MACD. Also we've a Target for the Bond (155^10) of 158^27 per the positive daily Parabolics. We're wary of Gold's (1091.4) 6-hr. Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, the Spoo (1929.50) the most rangy with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 86%; 2nd is Oil (31.30) at 72%. Q4 Earnings Season (follow our link) is underway.
11 Jan '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (1920.00) intra-day low had followed its high for the prior 7 consecutive sessions, so we're not surprised to see this overnight whirl 'round in price, which has traced 95% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, the widest EDTR tracing being for the of the Swiss (1.0058) at 109%; the daily Moneyflow there is still sub-50. Of the 6 components, only 2 are in the black: the Spoo and Silver (13.990). Copper (1.9765) is the weakest at -1.9%: per the negative MACD, we've a Market Rhythm Target of 1.9425. No Econ Data due.
08 Jan '16, 04:35 Pacific Time: The 3 BEGOS Markets that were red at this point yesterday are higher, the other 5 lower. The upsiders are Oil (33.53, +0.8%), the Spoo (1947.50, +0.7%) and Copper (2.0255, +0.1%). The Precious Metals are the most rangy, Silver's (14.050) EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) at 127% and Gold's (1100.6) at 125%; the 6 other EDTR tracings are sub-100%. The Swiss' (1.0027) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50, thus its Market Rhythm Target of 0.9784 still stands. China's Shanghai/Shenzhen CSI 300 +2%. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT and Wholesale Inventories at 07:00 PT.
07 Jan '16, 04:32 Pacific Time: 2 of 3 Market Rhythm Targets have been reached: Gold (cur 1098.7, tar 1089.5) and Oil (cur 32.63, tar 33.40); still open is that for the Swiss (cur 1.0019, tar 0.9784), its daily Moneyflow still sub-50. 2 provisional crossings we're watching are the Bond's (156^9) daily Parabolics flipping Long and Copper's (2.0255) daily MACD going negative. Volatility is mostly robust for the BEGOS Markets, 3 of the components being in the red, the weakest being Oil (-4.2%), followed by Copper (-3.0%) and the Spoo (1942.75, -2.2%). Shanghai exchange was closed after just 29 minutes, -7.3%.
06 Jan '16, 04:28 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo (1980.00) being the most rangy with a 120% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Oil (35.02) is the weakest component, -3.1%. The Bond (155^07), EuroCurrencies and Precious Metals are all in the black. Gold (1085.2) has traded to its best level in more than a month, the Market Rhythm Target of 1089.5 well intact. The Swiss' (0.9945) daily Moneyflow has confirmed sub-50: this Targets 0.9784; Oil's 12-hr. MACD has confirmed as negative: this Targets 33.40. ADP @ 08:15 PT, ISM(Svc)/FactOrdrs @ 07:00 PT.
05 Jan '16, 04:31 Pacific Time: Gold (1080.0) confirmed its 12-hr. Parabolics flipping to Long yesterday at 12:00 PT from a price of 1074.5; the Market Rhythm Target is 1089.5; but contra to that is the Swiss' (0.9929) daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50, which if confirmed by day's end would Target a level lower by 0.160 ($2,000/cac). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, the one component exceeding its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing by 100% being the Swiss (109%); it along with Oil (36.56) are the weakest of the BEGOS bunch, both -0.9%. The Bond (154^15) & all 3 metals are higher.
04 Jan '16, 04:34 Pacific Time: China kicks off the New Year with a 7% slide, its brand new "circuit breakers" failing; regardless, might the Spoo (1996.50) be -1.9% anyway? The Bond (155^00) and Gold (1071.3) share the BEGOS Markets spotlight, both +1.0%; Gold's 12-hr. Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long; The Gold Update highlights the 2015 BEGOS carnage in a table dominated by the Dollar (98.335). Volatility is robust with 7 of the 8 components exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), the Spoo the most so at 163%. ISM(Mfg) and Construction Spending due at 07:00 PT.
(Note: Archived Commentary prior to 2016 back into 2013 is available upon request.)
