Earnings Season:
Truth (not Estimates)
The S&P 500:
--Valuation & Rankings
--MoneyFlow
BEGOS Markets:
Bond
Euro
Swiss Franc
Gold
Silver
Copper
Oil
S&P 500
BEGOS Measures:
Market Rhythms
Market Profiles
Market Trends
Market Values
Market Ranges
Market Magnets
06 Dec '21, 10:15 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week with the economically-driven components getting the bid, Copper Oil and the Spoo all trading above their NZ; below same are the safe havens, save for Gold at 1781: The Gold Update bemoans price being perma-put in the 1780s. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are consistently rising for the EuroCurrencies and consistently falling for the PMs and the Spoo; as well, this measure is resuming lower for both Oil and Copper despite their rally thus far today. And by Market Values, Oil shows as 13 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, whereas the Bond shows as over 5 points "high".
03 Dec '21, 09:24 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper trading above its NZ, all the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light ahead of Nov's StateSide Payrolls data. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" confirmed crossing above their -80% axis, further supportive of our notion for a price move up into the 1.15s. Despite yesterday's relief rally for the S&P, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fall, as do those for Gold, Silver, Oil, and to a milder extent Copper. But by Market Values, Oil is still at a "low" extreme, still (in real-time) some 13 beneath its smooth valuation line. Along with jobs, the Econ Baro looks to Nov's ISM(Svc) Index and Oct's Factory Orders.
02 Dec '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: Following yesterday's "failure day" for the S&P, the Spoo is at present trading above today's NZ, as is Copper; below same are the Bond and Gold, and volatility is comparatively light given the week thus far. Still by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are in free-fall as notably are those for Silver, her relation to Gold nearing a ratio level of 80x. However for the Euro, the "Baby Blues" continue to curl higher toward maintaining our notion for price reaching the 1.15s on this up-run. On balance for the BEGOS Markets, we are seeing an unusual amount of correlative dislocation, especially given this "Santa Claus Rally" time of year, something we'll further assess in Sat's Gold Update.
01 Dec '21, 09:20 Central Euro Time: Gold, Copper, Oil and the Spoo all are trading above their NZ; however: the latter's linreg trend (see Market Trends) has, as anticipated, rotated to negative. Only the Bond is below its NZ at present, however it is the only BEGOS Market now with a positive linreg trend. Session volatility is moderate within the context that, save for Silver and Copper, EDTRs are materially expanding (see Market Ranges). By Market Values, Oil remains some 13 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro begins Dec with Nov's ADP Jobs data and ISM(Mfg) Index, plus Oct's Construction Spending.
30 Nov '21, 09:17 Central Euro Time: The Bond and EuroCurrencies are trading above their NZ whilst Copper, Oil and the Spoo are below same; again volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Oil and the Spoo have traded in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their plummet. The Euro is suggesting a bottom is in place: currently in the 1.13s, a run seems reasonable up into the 1.15s. And at Market Values, Oil now shows (in real-time) as some 13 full points below its smooth valuation line. Nov's Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence come due for the Econ Baro.
29 Nov '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: The Spoo has recovered some 50% of Friday's 140-point loss; also trading above their NZ are Silver, Copper and Oil; below same are the Bond and the EuroCurrencies; volatility already is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo having traced in excess of 100% of its EDTR. Cac volume for Gold has moved from Dec into Feb, whilst that for both the Bond and Silver have moved from Dec into Mar. Despite today's Spoo recovery, by Market Trends the "Baby Blues" are plummeting at a pace that ought rotate the linreg trend to negative in these next few days, barring an immediate run to new highs. The Gold Update cites the selection of Powell over Brainard as the fundamental catalyst justifying the anticipated fall led by the already known weakening technical stance. The Econ Baro begins its week with Oct's Pending Home Sales.
26 Nov '21, 09:02 Central Euro Time: Day 2 of Fri's session finds the start of another COVID-induced Spoo correction, (albeit our "Baby Blues" gave notice 3 days ago of a "sell" in the making); so now is coupled the fundamental catalyst. Obviously this gives the safe havens the bid: the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all are trading above their NZ, whilst Copper (volume moving to Mar cac), Oil and the Spoo are on the skids. Our 24 Nov notion of the Spoo going sub-4590 appears well in play. And by Market Values (in real-time), the Spoo now at 4622 is still 68 points above its smooth valuation live level of 4554. StateSide bourses are have their annual post-Thanksgiving early closure at 18:00 GMT.
25 Nov '21, 09:23 Central Euro Time: The Euro and Spoo are both trading above their NZ; the Bond is below same and volatility is light as the BEGOS markets commence a two-day session of abbreviated trading. StateSide physical bourses are closed Thu for Thanksgiving and have an earlier closure for Fri. Market Value notable readings show the Euro as 0.04 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, Oil as 4.30 points "low", and the Spoo as 157 points "high". The 9 metrics that came into the Econ Baro yesterday gave it yet again another substantive boost up to its highest oscillative level since 15 Jun.
24 Nov '21, 09:24 Central Euro Time: Only the Bond is trading above its NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light on this, the final full trading day of the week. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed dropping below the key +80% axis, suggestive of lower price levels ahead; typically by past like occurrences in the recent 12 months, this time 'round "ought" see the Spoo trade sub-4600: there is a top of structural support beginning at 4590. As noted yesterday, our anticipated move lower for Gold has been a bit more excessive; and Gold's daily MACD has crossed to negative such that 1750 is a plausible near-term price. The Econ Baro looks to 9 incoming metrics, including the Fed-favoured Core PCE inflation reading for Oct, plus Personal Income/Spending, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, and the first revision to Q3 GDP.
23 Nov '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: Powell gets the Biden nod to continue, our notion being wrong that Brainard would Chair the Fed. On the surprise, the Spoo swiftly fell 70 points, the selling being furthered in this session along with Oil also trading below its NZ; Copper is above same as are the 2 EuroCurrencies, and volatility is firmly moderate, pushing toward robust. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have provisionally slipped below the key +80% level: we've measured downside Spoo scenarios ranging off of yesterday's all-time high (4740) of anywhere from 100-to-400 points. Clearly the retention of Powell shall put the Fed into a more hawkish trend than having moved to Brainard. And as anticipated in the Gold Update, the near-term selling in the PMs has kicked in, albeit more so than we've expected.
22 Nov '21, 09:21 Central Euro Time: The Spoo and Silver are trading above their NZ, even as the latter per The Gold Update triggered a breakout Sell on Friday as did Gold itself. The Euro is below its NZ, the Dollar retesting its recent highs; session volatility is again mostly moderate. Indeed, The Gold Update seeks just minor pullback near-term, the 1800s being "safe" within the construct of the broader weekly parabolic Long trend. By Market Values, Gold shows (in real-time) as 46 points "high". Q3 Earnings Season is finalized: per that page, for nearly 1900 reports collected, 69% "beat estimates", but only 62% actually improved their bottom lines from "shutdown" Q3 a year ago; specific therein to the S&P, 80% improved. Oct's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
19 Nov '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: The Spoo this morning is furthering itself into record territory: whilst fundamentally this seems impossible, our S&P 500 MoneyFlow page supports higher levels even as Q3 Earnings Season comes to a close with our "live" P/E now 52.0x. Along with the Spoo trading above its NZ are Copper and Oil, whilst below same are the Bond , Euro and Swiss Franc; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) shows as 175 points "high" above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro has already wrapped up its week, the month of Nov on pace to be the Baro's second best this year (after Apr).
18 Nov '21, 08:42 Central Euro Time: Early on we've Oil trading below its NZ; the 7 other BEGOS Markets are at present inside of their NZ and volatility is again light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume has rolled from Dec to Jan; as well, Oil's daily Price Oscillator just confirmed crossing to negative after being positive since 04 Aug; by our Market Trends page, Oil's linreg rotated to negative nearly 2 weeks ago. Thus far this week Gold has recorded a 5-month high at 1879: this in spite of "Dollar strength", again underscoring that Gold plays no currency favourites. The Econ Baro rounds out its week today with Nov's Philly Fed Index and Oct's Leading Indicators.
17 Nov '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: Gold and Silver are getting the BEGOS Markets bid, both trading above their NZ; the other components are within same, and volatility is light-to-moderate; notably, the Euro has already traded 93% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Dollar Index has reached its highest level since July of a year ago as musings make the rounds that the Fed raise rates far sooner than later; still, the 2 EuroCurrencies are priced well below their Market Magnets such that some degree of snapback would appear imminent; indeed by Market Values, the Euro is nearly 0.05 points below its smooth valuation line. Oct's Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro.
16 Nov '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are trading at present within their NZ and volatility is light. By Market Trends, we've positive linregs for the Bond, Gold, Silver and the Spoo; negative are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil; however, therein the "Baby Blues" are rising only for Gold and Copper. By Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 157 points above its smooth valuation line; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 50.4x, and the MoneyFlow per the past 5 sessions has weakened considerably on selling in TSLA, which previously had been the upside catalyst. The Econ Baro receives Nov's NAHB Housing Index, Oct's Retails Sales, Ex/Im Pricing, and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Sep's Business Inventories.
15 Nov '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: Silver is the only BEGOS Market trading below its NZ, the balance of the bunch within same as the week begins; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update furthers its assessment of price's breakout: should the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend run a typical course, a price of 1971 on this stint would be reasonable to expect; and a historical glance at the CPI shows belies its exaggerated reporting, but still underlines the recent inflation increase. Q3 Earnings Season enters its final week, and the Econ Baro looks to Nov's NY State Empire Index.
12 Nov '21, 09:20 Central Euro Time: The PMs are taking a break from their recent surge, both trading below their NZ, whilst the Bond is above same; volatility is light on the heels of a fairly subdued day for the BEGOS Markets. Still by our Market Values page, there are a few extreme readings: vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines, we've (in real-time) the Euro as 0.04 points "low", Gold as 54 points "high", and the Spoo as 143 points "high". And even given some mild pullback of late for the S&P, our "live" P/E nonetheless remains an earnings-lacking 51.0x The Econ Baro concludes its week with the UofM Sentiment Survey.
11 Nov '21, 09:51 Central Euro Time: The metals triumvirate are all trading above their NZ, whilst the Bond is below same; volatility is again moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's linreg is now negative for the 1st time since 01 Sep, furthering such respective negativity are both Copper and the Euro. Yesterday's 2nd consecutive down session for the S&P 500 was enough to finally break the 14-day textbook "extremely overbought" condition, albeit such overbought stance still is "moderate" and the Spoo's linreg remains firmly positive. TSLA of late has been the dominate driver of the S&P's MoneyFlow, its rise and subsequent fall as depicted on that page. Banks in Europe are observing Armistice Day.
10 Nov '21, 09:55 Central Euro Time: The Bond, 2 EuroCurrencies and Gold are trading below their NZ; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is moderate. Yesterday's S&P down day (-0.3%), just the 3rd down session in the last 20, was not sufficiently significant to the break the textbook "extreme overbought" condition, now 14 days in succession and a streak matched only one other time in these past 42 years (during 1985). As well, the Spoo yesterday reached its "low if a down day" (from the "guesstimates" on the S&P's page) for the first time in the past 24 days; the suggested follow-through there is a run down to 4600. Today we've Oct's CPI and Sep's Wholesales Inventories for the Econ Baro.
09 Nov '21, 09:33 Central Euro Time: Silver is trading below its NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same,and volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P 500 has recorded 17 up days of the last 19: across our 42 years of readily available daily data, (2000-to-date), that has never before happened. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is now 53.2x, even as 80% of the constituents have bettered their y-o-y Q3 earnings. And by our Market Values page, the Spoo reads as 209 points "high" above its smooth valuation line, whilst at Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (obviously) pasted on the ceiling. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's PPI.
08 Nov '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: Oil opens the week as the BEGOS Markets' upside leader, the losers being the Euro and Swiss Franc; the other components are trading within their neutral zone and volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update welcomes the weekly parabolic trend finally having flipped to Long, our notion being that price rise into year-end; as well is pointed out the "insanity" of the S&P against such rare overbought readings across the past 41 years. At Market Trends, Copper's linreg furthers its negative rotation, for which (in real-time) has become the case for the Euro, with Oil not far behind, the latter's "Baby Blues" now just barely positive. 'Tis a very light week of incoming data for the Econ Baro.
05 Nov '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: Oil, Silver and Gold are trading above their NZ, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is undergoing a rare whiplash, its daily MACD having crossed back to positive after just flashed negative per yesterday's note. Oil has had a very volatile last two days, having dropped -4.1% high-to-low on Wed, only to rise +6.6% from low-to-high on Thu and then give almost all of that gain back by day's end as OPEC and Biden battle about. Either way, by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their precipitous drop. As well, Copper's linreg trend is the first to go negative, those for the balance of the BEGOS Markets still being positive. The S&P's textbook "extremely overbought" reading reached an 11th consecutive day, nearly off the charts for such reading across the last four decades. 'Tis Oct's Payrolls day for the Econ Baro, plus Sep's Consumer Credit.
04 Nov '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 has now been at our textbook "extremely overbought" reading for 10 consecutive days, a phenomena which has occurred on a mutually-exclusive basis but 5 other times across the past 41 years. This session, the 2 EuroCurrencies are below their NZ with Oil and Gold above same: but for the yellow metal, its daily MACD just confirmed a negative cross, which in past cases has averaged drops of 70 points, suggestive that Gold may be en route down to 1700 ('tis at present 1775). Volatility is moderate, save for the Euro which already has traced 109% of its EDTR. Today's incoming Econ Baro metrics include Sep's Trade Deficit, plus Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
03 Nov '21, 09:20 Central Euro Time: The Bond and Copper are trading above their NZ, whilst below same is Gold; volatility is light-to-moderate with the FOMC's Taper/Rate statement in the balance. At Market Trends, Oil's Baby Blues have moved below their +80% axis indicative of lower levels near-term: support structure targets include 81.08, 79.39 and 76.26; Oil's dominant Market Profile support now turned resistance is 82.80-83.30; as well by Market Values, Oil still (in real-time) is better than 4 points above its smooth valuation line. For the Econ Baro today we've Oct's ADP jobs data, the ISM(Svc) Index, and Sep's Factory Orders.
02 Nov '21, 09:21 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc and Copper are trading below their NZ; the other BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is mostly light. There is noticeable hesitancy across our markets with the FOMC Taper/Rate decision tomorrow and the Payrolls data come Fri. Still, there remain stark deviations from relative valuations: per our Market Values page we've in (real-time) the Euro as nearly 0.03 points "low", Oil as 6 points "high", and the Spoo as 136 points "high". The leap in the Moneyflow differential for the S&P is essentially all TSLA, the price for which has gained 50% in less than a month; 'tis reminiscent of some years ago when AAPL was effectively driving entirety of the S&P bus. And per our S&P Rankings page, TSLA now ranks 4th by cap-weight.
01 Nov '21, 09:33 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets begin Nov with the Bond and Silver both presently below their NZ; the other components are within same, and volatility is light. Per The Gold Update, all 8 BEGOS Markets now have positive linreg trends; however per Market Trends, mind the curling over to the downside of the "Baby Blues". Silver's daily parabolics confirmed flipping to Short per today's open such that a run down into the mid-to-lower 22s would be within historical precedent. And the Econ Baro begins the month with Oct's ISM(Mfg) Index and Sep's Construction Spending.
29 Oct '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: Above its NZ is the Swiss Franc, below same is Silver, and the volatility of the BEGOS Markets is moderate as we move through Oct's final trading session. With the Dollar suffering one of its worst days of the year yesterday, the Euro traced its 6th-rangiest session year-to-date, notably as Q3's Chain Deflator was more than double GDP growth, it in turn thus being inflationary rather than real. At Market Trends Copper's "Baby Blues" continue their cascade, whilst those for Silver are just starting to curl over to the downside. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including Oct's Chi PMI, Sep's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus Q3's Employment Cost Index.
28 Oct '21, 09:23 Central Euro Time: Gold and Copper are at present above their NZ; all the other BEGOS Markets are inside of same,and volatility is light-to-moderate. The red metal is in a relief rally following yesterday's fallout as the aforementioned daily Parabolics and MACD have gone negative; assessing previous downside excursions from those two Market Rhythms, we're looking for something in the 4.29-4.27 area this time 'round for Copper. Contextually by Market Trends, Copper's linreg remains positive; however its "Baby Blues" are furthering their fresh cascade. Econ Baro inputs today include Sep's Pending Home Sales and our first peek at Q3's GDP, the Chain Deflator for which is expected to be quite inflationary.
27 Oct '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: The metals triumvirate and Oil are trading below their NZ; the other BEGOS Markets are inside of same, and volatility is mostly light. Both Copper's daily Parabolics (confirmed) and MACD (provisionally) are now negative; as well by Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have begun rolling over (without having first achieved their +80% level); we thus can make the case for the red metal (presently 4.4470) moving down into the lower 4.30s, upper 4.20s; the slowing in New Home Sales for Sep can too be construed as a fundamental Copper negative. Sep's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
26 Oct '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: The 2 PMs are trading below their NZ and the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is light. With the exception of Copper and to an extent Oil, the other components' EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are near or below their year-over-year medians. By Market Values, Oil is some 9 points "high", the Spoo 112 points "high" the Bond 5 points "low" and the Euro 0.025 points "low"; Gold is relatively close to its smooth valuation line. And by Market Trends, it remains that all linregs are positive except for those of the Bond and the Euro. Yesterday's TSLA "blow-off" put the S&P's MoneyFlow through the roof. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's Consumer Confidence and Sep's New Home Sales.
25 Oct '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The week begins with the Bond and Swiss Franc trading below their NZ, and Gold and Copper above same; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to further suspicions as regards "the M word"; that noted, Gold now at 1799 is just 23 points below its weekly parabolic flip price to Long (1822) which is well within range given the "expected weekly trading range" of 50 points; too, by Market Values. Gold's "Baby Blues" are steadily rising toward their +80% level for uptrend confirmation; indeed those for Silver have now (in real-time) moved up to +84%. Whilst a busy week for the Econ Baro, nothing specific is due today. But we start to get into the thick of Q3 Earnings Season.
22 Oct '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Bond, Euro and metals triumvirate all are trading above their NZ, yet volatility for the BEGOS Markets is just light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, only the Bond and Euro have negative linregs; the "Baby Blues" for every component are basically rising, the sole exception being those for Oil which have of late already been crawling across the ceiling. For the S&P 500 and respect to Q3 Earnings Season, 92 constituents have thus far reported with 79 of them (73%) bettering their bottom lines from Q3 a year ago; however, given the commensurate rise in prices, the P/E remains 'round excessively record highs, the "live" reading at present 52.9x.
21 Oct '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: The Euro, Silver and Copper are all trading below their NZ, and the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; volatility is moderate with the exception of Copper which has traded in excess of 100% of its EDTR; as noted yesterday, Copper appears to have put in a near-term top. Notable deviations continue by our Market Values page, the Bond nearly 6 points "low", the Euro 0.02 points "low", and Oil 10 points "high"; as for the latter however, now at 83.10, price is moving up into the aforementioned volume gap from 7 years back that can swiftly see the 90 level. The Econ Baro concludes its week today with Oct's Philly Fed Index, plus Sep's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
20 Oct '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: The 2 PMs are trading above their NZ, whilst below same are the Bond, Copper and Oil; volatility is moderate. The S&P 500 settled yesterday 26 points from its all-time high (4546 during 02 Sep); recall that recently the Index had been "textbook oversold" for essentially one month; however that does not preclude the "live" P/E now 52.6x still suggestive of at least a 50% correction just to revert (which has always eventuated) to its historic median. Sep's weaker Housing Starts/Permits look to have curtailed Copper's recent run: 4.3850 seems a downside structural target. The Fed's Oct Tan Tome is due late in the session.
19 Oct '21, 09:24 Central Euro Time: 'Tis an up-up-and-away day for the BEGOS Markets, all 8 to the upside and 6 of which are trading above their NZ; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro already having traced 103% of its EDTR. For the Spoo, its daily Price Oscillator confirmed crossing to positive at the session's open (4476) and by Market Trends the linreg has also rotated to positive; 'twould thus appear that the S&P is en route near-term to eclipsing its all-time high (4546); still, Q3 Earnings Season has yet to put a dent in the S&P's "live" P/E, at present 52.3x. For the Econ Baro we've Sep's Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Oct '21, 09:24 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets start their week with both Copper and Oil -- the 2 dominant Market Trends upside leaders -- trading above their NZ; below same are the Bond, the 2 EuroCurrencies and Gold; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites another week past of "yank 'n tank", a chart therein showing such movement as clearly "not normal". Notable deviations by our Market Values page show the Bond as nearly 5 points "low", the Euro as better than 0.02 points "low", and Oil as nearly 12 points "high". For the Econ Baro today we've Oct's NAHB Housing Index and Sep's IndProd/CapUtil.
15 Oct '21, 09:22 Central Euro Time: Both Gold and the Bond are trading below their NZ, with Oil above same, and volatility again moderate. The Swiss Franc at Market Trends has joined the positive linregs, with now just the Bond, the Euro and the Spoo still with negative slants, albeit the "Baby Blues" are rising for those 3 components. Copper, which has gained some 14% in less than 3 weeks, is seeing its 2-hr. MACD crossing to negative, one of the best Market Rhythms of late for the red metal and the BEGOS Markets at large. 'Tis a busy end-of-week for the Econ Baro with Oct's NY State Empire Index and UofM Sentiment Survey, along with Sep's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing.
14 Oct '21, 09:24 Central Euro Time: With the Bond trading below its NZ, the 2 EuroCurrencies, Copper and the Spoo are above same, and volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, the 2 PMs have now joined Copper and Oil with positive linregs, Gold yesterday finally recorded an upside breakout toward 1800 after having been range-bound for better than 3 weeks; should the yellow metal remain firm near-term, its weekly parabolic trend ought flip from Short to Long within the next few weeks, if not fairly imminently. At Market Values, Gold has reclaimed the level of its smooth valuation line. Sep's PPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Oct '21, 09:33 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies and Silver are trading above their NZ, with no BEGOS Market at present below same; volatility is light-to-moderate. Copper's linreg (see Market Trends) has joined that for Oil on the positive side, whist those for the balance of the bunch remain negative; however, the "Baby Blues" are firmly on the rise for Gold, Silver and the Swiss Franc. By Market Profiles for the PMs, Gold's most heavily-traded price across the past 2 weeks is 1758, whilst for Silver 'tis 22.55. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's CPI; the FOMC's 21/22 meeting minutes are due late in the session.
12 Oct '21, 09:20 Central Euro Time: Following yesterday's failure day for the S&P, both the Bond and Gold are getting the bid early on, trading above their NZ whilst below same are Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate. Nov Oil topped 82 yesterday, beyond the high suggested by our EDTR measure, and thus far today price is hovering just above 80; still the "volume gap" fill to 90 (from 2014) remains quite viable; by Market Values, Oil is trading (in real-time) better than 10 points above its smooth valuation line: that is excessive, however in the past there have been extreme deviations up into the mid-teens; and by Market Trends, Oil is still the only BEGOS Market with a positive linreg.
11 Oct '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Copper and Oil are trading above their NZ, the latter having topped 81; as previously noted, in 2014 there was very light volume from 90 down to 80 such that price could now return back up there quite quickly. No BEGOS Market is at present below its NZ and volatility is moderate; (whilst not a formal BEGOS component, the Yen has traced 104% of its EDTR). The Gold Update cites price's inability to sustain the gain made on the poor payrolls report from Fri. Nonetheless by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" continue to ascend as do those for Silver, the Swiss Franc, the Spoo, and by a notable leap today of those for Copper.
08 Oct '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: The Bond and Silver are trading below their NZ, and Copper above same; volatility is mostly light. At Markets Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" continue their ascent even as price has spend the week usually stuck in the 1750's; indeed by Gold's Market Profile, the largest volume apexes of the past two weeks are at 1759 and 1753; Gold's recent daily MACD crossing to positive remains so. Oil -- still the only BEGOS Market with a positive linreg trend -- has more than recovered in full from yesterday's selling: price's "high if an up day" guesstimate is 80.52. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's Payrolls and Aug's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Oct '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: Both the Euro and Spoo are trading above their NZ with the balance of the BEGOS inside of same; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P looks to work off a "textbook oversold" condition now in place for the past 15 sessions; however seasonally, we doubt the Oct low (4279) is as yet in place: Q3 Earnings Seasons (to they extent they matter) "ought be" a driver through the ensuing weeks even as "live" P/E is 49.8x. By Market Values, deviations (in real-time) vis-à-vis their smooth valuation lines find the Bond 4 points "low", the Euro .02 points "low", Gold 30 points "low", Oil 7 points "high" and the Spoo 107 points "low". Aug's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro.
06 Oct '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Except for Oil inside of its NZ, all of the other BEGOS Markets are trading below same, and volatility is again moderate within the context that EDTRs are expanding, notably so for the Spoo (see Market Ranges). Gold's fresh MACD positive crossing is lacking follow-though puff, albeit the average number of days such signal lasts is 22; as well by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" continue to ascend. By our Oil page, price's "high if an up day" guesstimate is 80.64: the last day Oil traded above 80 was 03 Nov 2014. For the Econ Baro today we've Sep's ADP Employment data.
05 Oct '21, 09:16 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' EuroCurrencies and metals triumvirate are all trading below their NZ, the balance within same; volatility is moderate. Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed climbing above their -80% axis, suggestive of high prices near-term; as well, Gold's daily MACD confirmed crossing positively, which by Market Rhythms targets a move to at least 1801, barring that signal first reversing; more broadly per the current Gold Update, the yellow metal's weekly parabolic flip-to-long level is 1840. Oil's (at present 77.87) reaching a nearly 7-year high yesterday produced an upside breakout signal such that 80 is reasonably in the mix, (and as we've written can swiftly become 90 per the volume "gap" back in 2014). For the Econ Baro we've Sep's ISM(Svc) Index and Aug's Trade Deficit.
04 Oct '21, 09:17 Central Euro Time: All of the BEGOS Markets are trading at present within their NZ, save for the Spoo -0.6%; volatility is mostly light, expect for the Spoo having already traded 61% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update nixes our forecast high for this year of 2401, even as the U.S. Money Supply ("M2") has surpassed the $21 trillion mark; Gold's weekly parabolic trend is entering its 15th week as Short and its linreg (see Market Trends) remains firmly negative as is the case for all the BEGOS components, save for Oil. The Econ Baro kicks off its with with Aug's Factory Orders.
01 Oct '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: In opening Q4, the Spoo -0.7% is the sole BEGOS Market outside of its NZ; volatility is moderate within the context that all EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are essentially expanding. The S&P 500 looks to be reaching down into the anticipated 4200-4100 range per our seasonal measures citied both herein and in recent Gold Updates. By Market Trends, Oil continues as the only component in positive linreg, albeit price is beginning to look a bit toppy. Econ Baro metrics for today include Aug's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, along with Construction Spending and Sep's ISM(Mfg) Index.
30 Sep '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Bond is trading below its NZ and the Spoo above same, with the balance of the BEGOS Market otherwise relatively quiet; volatility is mostly light. Copper's 12-hr. MACD confirmed crossing negatively such that a move sub 4.10 seems reasonable if not a test of the recent 4.0160 low. The S&P 500, currently 4359, by its MoneyFlow page suggests price ought be 100-300 points lower depending on which time is employed; that noted, the aforementioned "textbook oversold" condition is still mildly in place. Highlighting today's Econ Baro inputs is Sep's Chi PMI.
29 Sep '21, 09:35 Central Euro Time: Following yesterday's fallout across all 8 BEGOS Markets, the Euro, Silver and Copper are furthering their slides, however the Bond is higher; volatility is moderate. Notable Market Value deviations (in real-time) feature the Bond as 5 points "low", Oil as 6 points "high", and the Spoo as 120 points "low". The S&P 500 has been "textbook oversold" by one or another measures since 16 Sep, however the linreg trend remains firmly negative and the "Baby Blues" still falling by Market Trends; as well, yesterday's MoneyFlow was severely negative. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Pending Home Sales.
28 Sep '21, 09:13 Central Euro Time: The Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs are all trading below their NZs; above same is Oil and volatility is moderate-to-robust with Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony in the balance. At Market Values, Oil is better than 8 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line; of note, should 80 be achieved, 90 may quickly follow given it being a volume trading gap from back in Oct '14. As continues the case, Oil continues in a very firm linreg uptrend by Market Trends. For the S&P, its "live" P/E is above 50x (50.3x) as the Index tip-toes its way in-and-around what we historically view as "crash season" were such to occur. Sep's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
27 Sep '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: Gold, Silver, Oil, and the Spoo are all trading above their NZ, with only the Swiss Franc below same; volatility is moderate. By Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is nearly 7 points above its smooth valuation line, whilst at Market Magnets, Oil is some 3 upside points in deviation, which is fairly extreme; Oil remains the sole BEGOS Market with a positive linreg trend, albeit by Market Trends, its "Baby Blues" have been flattening 'round their +80% axis for better than a week. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal being within the grasp of gravity, the weekly parabolic Short trend now entering a 14th week in duration. The Econ Baro opens a fairly busy week with Aug's Durable Orders.
24 Sep '21, 10:02 Central Euro Time: Per the 22 Sep comment, the Spoo looks to have run out of puff at the 4443-4452 resistance zone; 'tis at present the sole BEGOS Market trading below its NZ, whilst Gold is above same; volatility is again moderate. The S&P 500, after having been moderately "textbook oversold" completed its 5th best 2-day up stint by points year-to-date; however, by Market Trends, the Spoo's linreg remains decidedly negative, the "Baby Blues" therein continuing their fall; the most notable Market Profile support for the Spoo is 4350. The Econ Baro 'rounds out its resilient week with Aug's New Home sales.
23 Sep '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies and the Spoo are at present trading above their NZ, whilst below same is the Bond; volatility is moderate. The S&P's response to the FOMC's no-change no-taper (yet) statement was hardly robust: with the Spoo's linreg trend firmly negative (see Market Trends) we anticipate further spillover ahead, certainly to test last Mon's lows and then some. That noted, by Market Values the Spoo shows as some 100 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; Oil is 5 points "high" above same. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Leading Indicators.
22 Sep '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: With the S&P having closed lower for 10 of the past 12 days (which on a mutually-exclusive basis has happed 28 times in the past 41 years), the Spoo is again getting a bounce in trading above its NZ, as also are Silver, Copper and Oil; volatility already is moderate-to-robust with the FOMC in the balance. Should the Spoo have further material bounce, its Market Profile resistance zone appears as 4443-4452; still our sense is more lower levels toward Oct. Oil is the sole BEGOS Market in a linreg uptrend, although as noted yesterday, its "Baby Blues" by Market Trends have slipped sub +80%. Aug's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Sep '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: Not unexpectedly following yesterday's fall, the Spoo is recovering, trading at present above its NZ as is Oil; only the Bond is below same, and volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, as anticipated the Spoo's linreg has rotated to negative: the next spillover (foreseeing post-FOMC) looks to test the 4248-4118 pricing structure established this past Jun. Oil's "Baby Blues" (also by Market Trends) finally dropped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower price levels. And Copper's daily MACD, (at present the red metal's best Market Rhythm), has confirmed a negative crossover. Aug's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro, along with Q2's Current Account Balance.
20 Sep '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: The Euro, Oil, Copper and the Spoo all are trading below their NZ, the latter 2 as well below their "low if a down day" (per their respective pages); as noted in The Gold Update, the S&P by averaging seasonal annual pullbacks "ought see" S&P 4240 by Oct's end, although obviously by earnings valuation a significantly larger "correction" is inevitable: 'tis merely about the when. By Market Values, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" look to confirm having crossed below their 0% axis come this session's settle. As well, The Gold Update also cites the lack of the yellow metal's monthly volume during 2021 vis-à-vis the prior 3 years. Sep's NAHB Housing Index starts the Econ Baro's week, highlighted by the FOMC on Wed.
17 Sep '21, 09:23 Central Euro Time: Gold and Copper, both having taking material drops yesterday, are the only 2 BEGOS Markets at present trading above their NZ; none are below same and volatility is moving toward moderate. Oil, the cac volume for which is moving from Oct into Nov, is still some 4 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) whilst at Market Trends Oil's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) atop their +80% axis. The same measure for both PMs has dropped below the respective 0% axes and has nearly so done for the Spoo as its linreg trend also rotates toward negative. UofM Sentiment rounds out the Econ Baro's week.
16 Sep '21, 09:20 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, those below their NZ being the Bond, the 2 EuroCurrencies and the metals triumvirate; volatility is moderate. However, the Spoo's firm up day yesterday has maintained the daily Price Oscillator (see yesterday's note) as positive perhaps for another few days. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Spoo continue their descent whilst those for both Copper and Oil further their ascents. And at Market Values, mind Oil's deviation (at present +4.5 points in real-time) above the smooth valuation line. Amongst today's Econ Baro inputs are Sep's Philly Fed Index, Aug's Retail Sales and Jul's Business Inventories.
15 Sep '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc, Copper and Oil all are trading above their NZ with the balance of the BEGOS Markets essentially neutral; volatility is mostly light. The Spoo is near to triggering a negative crossing of its daily Price Oscillator: price follow-throughs in either direction across its last 23 signals (extending back to April 2018) average in excess of 200 points irrespective of adversity; as well, the timing of this is nicely coincident with it being "crash season" should such evolve. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's NY State Empire Index, plus Aug's Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/Cap Util.
14 Sep '21, 09:08 Central Euro Time: With the exception of the Swiss Franc trading above its NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light, save for Copper's having traced 51% of its EDTR. Despite yesterday's relief rally for the S&P, by Market Trends the Spoo's Baby Blues continue their descent, as notably do those for the PMs. The "live" P/E of the S&P hasn't been materially reduced by price's recent pullback, the reading at present 50.5x. By the page on the S&P's Moneyflow, it is a very mixed picture depending on which timeframe one views, the notion thus being that "fear" has yet to come to the fore. Aug's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Sep '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: A relief rally seems in store for the S&P, the Spoo at present the only BEGOS Market trading above its NZ; the 2 EuroCurrencies are below same, and volatility is well-moderate. The Gold Update re-emphasizes that 20 years on from "9/11" the yellow is priced 'round half what it ought be along the debasement curve and the S&P 'round double what it ought be along the earnings curve. The 5-day decline in the Spoo has finally brought it back to par with its smooth valuation line (see Market Trends), however the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to drop (see Market Trends). The Econ Baro opens a fairly busy week with the Treasury Budget for Aug.
10 Sep '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: The day before the 20th anniversary of 9/11 finds the BEGOS Markets essentially strengthening with only the Bond trading below its NZ; volatility is moderate. Gold did confirm the aforementioned negative MACD daily crossover, but 'tis at best a feeble reading, the yellow metal +0.4% at present; still by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are clearly falling such that we've cross-currents within these technical reads; and per Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) precisely on its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro closes out a very subtle week of data with Aug's PPI and Jul's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Sep '21, 09:34 Central Euro Time: The Spoo is trading below its NZ whilst above same are the Bond, Swiss Franc and Copper; volatility is light-to-robust, Copper having already traced 95% of its EDTR. The Euro's Daily Parabolics have confirmed flipping to Short; and Gold's daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative, (although the latter is not a desirable strategy from our view). That noted, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have slipped below their +80% axis, which typically leads to lower price levels near-term; however, the 1775 level ought offer structural support, (price currently 1793).
08 Sep '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: Both Copper and the Spoo are trading below their NZ whilst above same is the Bond; volatility is light-to-moderate. We are anticipating various Short signals into the balance of the week for the Euro, Gold, Copper, Oil and the Spoo: these are based on "Baby Blues" reversals (see Market trends), parabolic flips, MACD and Price Oscillator crossovers. The Spoo by Market Values still remains quite high, some 126 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line. Today brings the Fed's Tan Tome of regional activity and the Econ Baro late in the session looks to Jul's Consumer Credit.
07 Sep '21, 09:15 Central Euro Time: Into the 2nd-half of the 2-day session are the BEGOS Markets with volatility moderate but not yet as ramped as we'd anticipated; the Bond and metals triumvirate are trading below their NZ, whilst the other components are within same. By Market Trends, only the Bond and Copper have negative linregs; by Market Values, the Spoo remains excessively "high", the real-time reading 143 points above the smooth valuation line, whereas the balance of the bunch show no material deviation. Toward kicking off the shortened week for the S&P itself, its "live" P/E is at present 51.1x.
06 Sep '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: The StateSide Labor Day Holiday effects a 2-day session for the BEGOS Markets which at present find the EuroCurrencies, Copper and Oil all trading below their NZ, with none above same; volatility already is pushing toward moderate such that we'll likely see some trading ranges having pushed beyond 100% of their EDTRs by tomorrow. The Gold Update also cites Labor Day as the historical cusp of "crash season" for the S&P: we'll see, but clearly a massive "correction" is in order be it measured quantitatively, technically or fundamentally, especially per the Update's two "frightening" S&P charts.
03 Sep '21, 09:31 Central Euro Time: The S&P technically has now recorded four consecutive "triple red flag" daily readings (see 31 Aug), whilst fundamentally the "live" P/E is now 51.1x. Similar to this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets are within their NZ and volatility is again light. Across the past 20 years, the Friday before Labor Day (06 Sep) is typically jittery for the S&P, at best posting mild gains. At Market Values, the Spoo remains 159 points "high" above its smooth valuation line, whilst at Market Trends Oil's linreg has rotated from negative to positive. 'Tis Aug's Payrolls day for the Econ Baro along with the month's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 Sep '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently within their NZ and volatility is light; this even as the S&P recorded its 3rd consecutive session with the noted technical "triple red flag" reading. The seasonal timing of such extreme "overbought" stance suggests (at least historically) that "things could get ugly' after Labor Day (Mon, 06 Sep). The yield on the S&P (1.292%) has slid below that of the 10-yr. Note (1.302%); on the Bond 'tis 1.919%. The Spoo is the only primary BEGOS component by Market Values showing an vast deviation from its smooth valuation line, at present by +153 points. Jul's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro, along with Q2's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
01 Sep '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: The Bond, Swiss Franc and Copper are trading below their NZ whilst above same are Oil and the Spoo; volatility is moderate as Sep -- oft an onerous markets month -- commences. At Market Trends, it remains that only Gold and the Spoo are in positive linregs; however, the "Baby Blues" for most of the other components are on the rise. The Spoo by Market Magnets is 66 points "high" (very extreme), with price 176 above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), and the S&P still with the aforementioned "triple red flag" technical reading. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's ADT jobs data, ISM(Mfg) Index and July's Construction Spending.
31 Aug '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: Both EuroCurrencies and both PMs are trading above their NZ, and the Spoo flirting with the border line of same; volatility is mostly moderate. With the Spoo inexhaustibly higher yet again, the "live" P/E of the S&P is now 50.9x and the Spoo itself by Market Values (in real-time) is 184 points above its smooth valuation line. By our 3 conventional "textbook technicals" (BollBands, RSI and Stos), the S&P is "extremely overbought", albeit in recent years such "triple red flag" measure has failed to keep price increases at bay. That noted on the cusp on Sep, seasonally the S&P is entering traditionally difficult waters. From Aug for the Econ Baro we've Chi's PMI and Consumer Confidence.
30 Aug '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The final "unofficial" week of summer starts for the BEGOS Markets with Copper trading above its NZ and Oil below same, (albeit Oil notably gapped up to initially start the session); volatility (save for Oil's 70% EDTR tracing) is light. The Gold Update points to price within a week or two range-wise of being able to flip the weekly parabolic trend from Short back to Long. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have crossed above their 0% axis line as the linreg trend rotates from negative to positive: at present, only Gold and the Spoo are sporting positive linregs. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with Jul's Pending Home Sales.
27 Aug '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: With Chairman Powell's "Fed clarity" speech (14:00 GMT) in the balance, we've BEGOS Markets' strength in the EuroCurrencies, PMs and Oil; the other components are trading within their NZ and volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo is the only component with a positive linreg; however therein, the "Baby Blues" are rising for every market, (save for the Bond). Despite yesterday's mild pullback, the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) is 133 points "high" above its smooth valuation line. Incoming metrics to close the Econ Baro's week include Jul's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured inflation read: the Core PCE Index.
26 Aug '21, 09:24 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc and metals triumvirate all are trading below their NZ, and none of the other BEGOS Markets above same, with volatility again pushing toward moderate. Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed curling up above their -80% axis such that at least a re-test of the prior week's 69.62 seems plausible; by Markets Values, Oil (in real-time) reads as 2.60 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; however by its Market Magnet, price is better than 2 points "high" such that a near-term reclamation of 70+ may be a bit of a stretch. The Econ Baro gets its 2nd read of Q2's GDP.
25 Aug '21, 09:04 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' components of the Euro, Gold and Silver all are trading below their NZ, the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is pushing toward moderate. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" confirmed curling above their -80% axis such that some further rise to this recent rally can be expected; in real-time for Oil, the Blues too are moving up, albeit price itself is sufficiently extended above its regression trend line such that typically it snaps back down to some degree. However by Market Values, Oil (in real-time) reads as 3 points "low". The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Durable Orders.
24 Aug '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Both the Bond and Copper are trading below their NZ with the balance of the BEGOS Markets inside of same; volatility is light-to-moderate. Both Copper and Oil have traded marginally into overhead structural resistance, respectively from 4.2435-4.4310 and 65.15-69.72; as well, those two markets remain in negative linreg trends despite yesterday's "everything" bounce (save for the Bond and Dollar). By Market Values, the gravity-defying Spoo is (in real-time) 150 points above its smooth valuation line; price is also reaching an extreme distance from its Market Magnet. Jul's New Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro.
23 Aug '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: Oil plus the 2 PMS are getting the bid to start the week, those 3 markets at present above their NZ and the balance of the other BEGOS components within same; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites last week as being the yellow metal's narrowest since that ending 14 Feb '20, even as the Spoo's range expands and its direction becoming a bit more erratic, a key point being that "...The stock market crash really is coming; we just don't know when..." Of course, Sep/Oct have been notoriously difficult months for the S&P 500; its "live" P/E in pre-RTH trading is 49.1x. Existing Home Sales for Jul begin a moderate week of incoming Econ Baro data.
20 Aug '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: The Bond, Swiss Franc, Gold and Copper all are trading above their NZ, whilst the Spoo is below same, and volatility is light-to-moderate. With today still in the balance, Gold appears en route to recording its narrowest weekly trading range for this year. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are falling with notable swiftness for the 2 EuroCurrencies, Oil, Copper and the Spoo. The latter's daily Parabolics are reinforcing their Short stance such that the 4305 level (see 18 Aug's comment) remains well-viable. In looking at the Euro, should the 1.16s break, a run down to the 1.13s ought find structural support as the Dollar's recent up run continues.
19 Aug '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: Only the Bond is trading above its NZ, the Swiss Franc within same, and the balance of the BEGOS Markets below, with volatility moderate-to-robust. The Spoo's aforementioned daily Parabolic being Short, the linreg trend by Market Values remains positive: however, the "Baby Blues" therein of trend consistency have begun to plunge such that we may see the trend having rotated to negative during next week. Only the Bond's linreg at present also is positive. The Dollar is at a 9-month high (93.445). Aug's Philly Fed Index and Jul's Leading Indicators come into the Econ Baro.
18 Aug '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies and the 2 PMs are trading above their NZ, and the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is light with just the Spoo having traded as much as 50% of its EDTR. The Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Short effective this session's open: we are looking for price to run down to 4305 which is the center of the 14-19 Jul structural zone. Seasonally, 'tis still a bit early for "crash season" (Sep/Oct), but it ought be seriously considered this year given the vast ongoing overvaluation of the S&P ("live" P/E 48.1x even with Q2 earnings improvements) and the Fed making less-accommodative musings. Jul's Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro.
17 Aug '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: Word of the Fed stopping asset purchases by next year can be a catalyst for "lower" (understatement) S&P levels, the Spoo, Oil and Copper trading below their NZ; above same are Gold and the Bond, and volatility is again firmly moderate. 2 key Copper 8-hr. measures (MACD and Parabolics) have just flipped to Short, suggestive of a near-term move sub 4.24; at Market Trends, Copper's linreg has now confirmed rotating to negative. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with Aug's NAHB Housing Index, Jul's Retail Sales plus IndProd/CapUtil, and Jun's Business Inventories
16 Aug '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: The Bond (and the non-BEGOS Yen) are getting the bid to start the week for the BEGOS Markets; trading below their NZ are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility early on is already firmly moderate. The Gold Update highlights the more-than-complete price recovery from the prior Monday's drop. Our biggest concern is not so much Gold's welling lagging its proper value (3903 by the Update's Gold Scoreboard); rather 'tis the inevitable "decline" in the S&P, indeed by the scary manner offered in the Update. The Econ Baro beings its week with Aug's NY State Empire Index.
13 Aug '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: The 2 PMs are trading above their NZ and the other BEGOS Markets components within same; volatility is light. At Market Trends, only Copper (barely) and the Spoo maintain their positive linregs, the S&P 500 closing yesterday at yet another all-time high. Our "live" P/E of the S&P at 48.9x hasn't taken much of decline as we've but a week to go in Q2 Earning Season: again, the mean (to which the P/E always reverts) is 19.4x. Gold has essentially recovered from its Monday fallout, however Silver has thereto lagged, the Gold/Silver ratio having expanded 3 full points this week from 72x to 75x. The Econ Baro finishes its week with Aug's UofM Sentiment and Jul's Ex/Im pricing.
12 Aug '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Copper is the sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ with the balance of the bunch inside of same; volatility is mostly light, save for Copper having traded a bit in excess of 50% of its EDTR. Gold appears on pace to recover the entirety of Monday's fallout: the session's high thus far (1757) is but 7 points shy of last week's 1764 settle; however, we're mindful by Market Trends that Gold's linreg has rotated to negative, the "Baby Blues" therein continuing to drop; still, Gold is some 30 points below its Market Magnet and some 40 points below its smooth Market Values valuation line. Wholesale inflation arrives for the Econ Baro with Jul's PPI.
11 Aug '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are trading within their NZ and volatility not surprisingly is light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are notably accelerating lower for the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold. By Market Values, vis-à-vis their smooth valuation lines (in real-time) Gold shows as 66 points "low", Oil as 4 points "low" and the Spoo as 116 points "high". By near-term "textbook" technical reads, the S&P shows as "overbought" for 11 of the past 12 trading days; its "live" P/E is 48.5x even as Q2 Earnings Season is winding down. Jul's CPI and Treasury Budget come due for the Econ Baro.
10 Aug '21, 09:12 Central Euro Time: Price recoveries continue in the metals triumvirate and Oil following their being sharply sold in the early stages of yesterday's session: Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil all are trading above their NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same, and volatility is light. The amount of Dollars it takes to move the S&P 500 one point has been reduced to its lowest level since 28 Feb 2020 just prior to the COVID-induced market correction. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their decline such that the positive linreg trend may rotate to negative by week's end. The Econ Baro looks to Q2's first read on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
09 Aug '21, 09:43 Central Euro Time: Oil, Silver and Gold are all trading beneath their NZ in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets, and volatility is light-to-moderate, with this exception: there was significant selling in the PMs early on, with Gold all the way down to 1678, price having since recovered to 1753, (-0.6%). The Gold Update notes the month's poor start, which we view as a fine opportunity to get aboard; Silver too traded well down to 22.30 before bouncing now to 23.98 (-1.4%). The sell sentiment is said to be in response to the Fed's musing on moving on rates, even as they've not even yet voted to first taper asset purchases. Our broader concern remains the massive overvaluation of the S&P 500, ("live" P/E 50.7x), especially with the traditional "crash" period of Sep/Oct looming.
06 Aug '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: Both Oil and Copper are trading above their NZ, however the 2 markets have confirmed their daily Parabolics swinging to Short; as well by Market Trends, Oil's negative linreg is gaining some downside consistency as the "Baby Blues" drop, whilst the positive linreg for Copper is losing consistency, its Blues dropping there too. Below its NZ is the Bond ahead of what (by the ADP data) may be a weaker than expected Jul Payrolls number. BEGOS Markets volatility continues as light with only Copper having trading in excess of 50% (61%) of today's EDTR (see Market Ranges). Also due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
05 Aug '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: All eight BEGOS Markets are trading within their NZ: volatility is yet again light with Jul's Payrolls data in tomorrow's balance; of note, yesterday's ADP jobs number badly missed the consensus mark in halving Jun's increase. By Market Values, the Bond still shows as 4 points "high", with Oil now 5 points "low"; that noted, Oil's daily Parabolics have just confirmed flipping to Short, suggestive of price reaching down to 66 near-term; as well by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are just starting to roll over, perhaps reinforcing the already negative linreg stance. Jun's Trade Deficit comes due for the Econ Baro.
04 Aug '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Save for Silver trading above its NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is again light. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower for the second consecutive day as the positive linreg trend continues to run out of puff: upon a near-term rotation of the trend to negative, we can see price test the prior lows of 4.16 if not 4.09; as well Copper yesterday crossed below its Market Magnet (presently 4.4535); immediate Profile supports for Copper are 4.36, 4.32 and 4.26. Today's Econ Baro looks to Jul's ADP Employment and the ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Aug '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: Silver (which has yet to get in positive linreg sync with Gold and Copper) is trading below its NZ as is Oil; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light. Of note, Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinking lower today. By Market Values, the Bond shows as some 4 points "high" and the Spoo some 81 points "high" above their respective valuation lines. As for the Spoo, by its Market Profile, price is testing the most dominantly-traded level of the past two weeks at 4391; the same can be said for Oil's 71.90 level. Jun's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
02 Aug '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: August is on: and The Gold Update looks for an august August for both Gold and Silver. To start, Copper and the Spoo are trading above their NZ, but below same are the Bond, Gold and Oil; volatility is moderate. Given the (expectedly) vast year-over-year improvement in Q2 Earnings, the S&P's P/E has slipped sub-50x (the "live" reading now 49.9x). Yet by Market Values, the Spoo reads (in real-time) as 113 points above its valuation line; too, the S&P's Moneyflow has significantly fallen off (exacerbated by the Fri selling in AMZN). The Econ Baro begins its week with Jul's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending.
30 Jul '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: Toward closing out the year's 7th month we've the Bond trading above its NZ and the Spoo below same; volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday, Silver had its best up day (+2.7%) since 17 May, and today its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinking up for the 1st time in 2 weeks; presently 25.655, structural resistance runs from 25.82 to 26.91; Silver's linreg remains negative, however that for both Gold and Copper are positive which "ought" work favourably for the white metal. The Econ Baro closes its busy week with data including Jul's Chi PMI, Jun's Personal Income, Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus Q2's Employment Cost Index.
29 Jul '21, 09:31 Central Euro Time: With the Fed not tapering (let alone tightening), Dollar weakness finds the EuroCurrencies, metals triumvirate and Oil all trading above their NZ, with volatility mostly moderate. Gold (albeit with 5 fresh points of Dec cac premium) at 1823 is at its highest level in 2 weeks. The Swiss Franc is up to its best level (1.1023) in better than a month. Silver, the linreg for which remains down whilst that for Gold is up (see Market Trends), ought benefit through here, (note the Gold/Silver ratio at 71.6x is again running above average). The Econ Baro gets its 1st peek at Q2 GDP, with Jun's Pending Home Sales also due.
28 Jul '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: Ahead of the Fed we've the PMs trading above their NZ with Copper below same; volatility is expectedly light: only Copper has traced in excess of 50% (56%) of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" confirmed rising above their -80% axis such that we're seeking a return to at least the 1.19s, (presently 'tis 1.18195; as well, the Euro yesterday crossed above its Market Magnet, and by Market Values, price is 0.20 points below its smooth valuation line. Also by Market Values, the Bond is 4 points "high" and the Spoo 108 points "high". We'll see if finally there is some dissent among the ranks of the FOMC.
27 Jul '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: The EuroCurrencies, Copper and the Spoo all are trading below their NZ, and the Bond above same; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P closed at yet another all-time high; today's anticipated lower opening nonetheless has the "live" P/E at 56.6x even as year-over-year earnings expectedly are better. The S&P's yield is 1.341% whilst that on the Bond has slipped sub-2% to 1.926%. Copper, for which the all-time high is 4.8880 (10 May) may be making a run to test that milestone, (present price 4.5445), as by Market Trends the recently weakening linreg is reinforcing to the upside. Today's Econ Baro data brings Jul's Consumer Confidence and Jun's Durable Orders.
26 Jul '21, 09:23 Central Euro Time: The Bond looks toward resuming its broader ascent, trading above the NZ to start the week; below their NZ are both Oil and the Spoo, and volatility is moderate. The Gold Update opens in noting the startling high level of the S&P by its P/E (56.7x "live"); 'twould appear thus far that Q2 earnings are doing little to alleviate such ratio extreme; and by Market Values, the Spoo is better than 100 points above its smooth valuation line. Indeed a 67% stock market correction would only bring the P/E in line with its historical mean. A very engaging week for the Econ Baro begins with Jun's New Home Sales.
23 Jul '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently within their NZ and volatility is again light. The Econ Baro has already completed another weak week, driving its level down to a 3-month low, irrespective of the FinMedia recently proclaiming the StateSide economy as "red-hot". Still, the S&P may again today flirt with its all-time high (4394) as the level can eclipse 4400 by the Spoo's EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to fall for the Spoo, but not as steeply as we've been seeing; and the Spoo's linreg trend remains positive. Market Profile resistance for the Spoo (presently 4374) shows at 4376 with support at 4360 and 4353.
22 Jul '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: Both the Bond and Copper are trading above their NZ whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is light. Per our Moneyflow page, that for the S&P despite its 2-day rally was largely unsupportive. Moreover by Market Trends, the ES' "Baby Blues" are dropping as is the case for Oil (despite its rally yesterday), and the metals triumvirate. As Q2 Earnings Season rolls along, even with earnings year-over-year expectedly higher, stocks prices are so high that the S&P's "live" P/E is not budging, at present 56.7x; (the median since the Index's inception is 18x). Jun's (lagging) Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jul '21, 09:22 Central Euro Time: The S&P's "no fear" fallout of Mon essentially recovered in full on Tue: the Moneyflow was sub-par on the way down, but again sub-par on the way back up: thus a lack of conviction in both directions. Presently, the Euro and Copper are below their NZ with the Bond above same, and volatility is again moderate. Oil remains some 5 points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), its 67-62 structural support area containing price. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have fallen down (in real-time) to their 0% axis as the linreg trend rotates from positive toward negative; Copper's notably overhead Profile resistors are 4.2600, 4.2800 and 4.3200.
20 Jul '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: Following yesterday's 1.6% drop in the S&P, the ES has since been recovering, the present 4275 level 51 points above yesterday's 4224 low and above today's NZ, as are both Copper and Oil; below its NZ is the Bond, and volatility is moderate. For the S&P by our Moneyflow page, fear has yet to appear. Oil traded down through our near-term target of 67; with Oil's linreg trend now negative, 'tis worth noting 67-62 as the current structural support range; as well, Oil is now priced some 5 points below its Market Magnet, a fairly extreme deviation, warranting some imminent bounce. For the Econ Baro, today we've Jun's Housing Starts/Permits.
19 Jul '21, 09:31 Central Euro Time: Save for the Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets are beginning the week below their NZ, with volatility well-moderate and likely extending toward robust for the PMs. The Gold Update paints a bullish picture for the yellow metal, yet points to Silver's having taken on more of an industrial metal role of late astride recent weakness in Copper and a fresh decline in Oil. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) crossed below their 0% axis, the linreg trend now negative; the excess "high" pricing we'd seen for Oil by Market Values has returned to a neutral stance, with 67 as a reasonable near-term structural target. The Econ Baro starts a fairly light week with Jul's NAHB Housing Index.
16 Jul '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: The safe-havens of the Bond, Gold and Silver are trading below their NZ with the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; volatility is moderate. Oil, the cac volume for which is moving from Aug into Sep, sees its "Baby Blues" (at Market Trends) accelerating their decline, the linreg trend likely turning negative next week, barring some swift price recovery; at present, the only negative linregs are for the 2 EuroCurrencies. Even as the Spoo has been running out of puff through much of this week, by Market Values it nonetheless shows (in real-time) as 106 points "high". To close out the Econ Baro's busy week we've Jul's UofM Sentiment, Jun's Retail Sales and May's Business Inventories.
15 Jul '21, 09:42 Central Euro Time: Both the Bond and Copper are trading above their NZ, whilst both Oil and the Spoo are below same; volatility is moderate. Oil has reached our initial 72 target; in the balance would come 68 as structural support should more down-push come to the fore. The S&P 500 made yet another all-time high yesterday prior to pulling back as has of late been its wont. Bank earnings are beating both last year and consensus however the S&P at 56.3x earnings is at this juncture struggling to materially jump. 11 metrics are due for the Econ Baro before week's end, today including Jul's NY State Empire and Philly Fed Indices along with Jun's Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil.
14 Jul '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: At present, all 8 BEGOS Markets are trading within their NZ and volatility is light. We continue to mind Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as they further slip, albeit with some lack of alacrity; still, by Market Values, Oil now is 5 points "high" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; whilst currently 75.12, should 73.50 break by Oil's Market Profile, we initially see 72, and with a more thorough correction, 68; however, above 78 opens the door relatively unimpeded up through the 80s to 90. More bank earnings are due for Q2; and following yesterday's higher read on retail inflation, today the Econ Baro looks to Jun's PPI.
13 Jul '21, 10:14 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies and Copper are trading below their NZ whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is light-to-moderate with banks' Q2 earnings reports in the offing. Going 'round the Market Values page, in real-time the Bond is 3 points "high", the Euro 0.03 points "low", Gold 59 points "low", Oil 4 points "high" and the Spoo 134 points "high", each with respect to its smooth valuation line. And at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to slip as the positive linreg trend loses its consistency. Jun's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro as well as the month's Treasury Budget.
12 Jul '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: Save for the Bond, the other BEGOS Markets all are lower, those at present below their NZ being Gold, Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are lower still, as noted in The Gold Update with "...Oil's uptrend now running out of puff..."; the Update reiterates Gold's current parabolic Short trend as appearing short-lived with the upper 1800s in the balance. By Market Values, vis-à-vis their smooth valuation lines (in real-time) Oil shows as 4 points "high" and Gold as 70 points "low". 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro with 16 metrics due, plus bank results begin working their way into Q2 Earnings Season.
09 Jul '21, 09:33 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's -0.9% S&P change was marked by only weak money outflow (see S&P Moneyflow) such that 'tis not surprising to have the ES trading above its NZ; the Bond is below same and volatility is mostly moderate. Oil's "Baby Blues " (see Market Trends) confirmed breaking below their +80% axis such that (as noted) we see the 68 structural support area getting tested as Oil's linreg rotates toward negative; in real-time, Oil is some 4 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values); and present price (73.34) is essentially on the Market Profile's most heavily traded price of the past 2 weeks. May's Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
08 Jul '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: Silver, Copper and the Spoo are trading below their NZ whilst the Bond and Swiss Franc are above same with the safe haven bid. Volatility is moderate, the Spoo indeed having traded just in excess of 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" provisionally are breaking below their +80% axis, confirmation of which by session's end would suggest still lower prices: initial structural support is 68. And by Market Values, the Bond is (in real-time) 5 points above its smooth valuation line. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to May's Consumer Credit.
07 Jul '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The current edition of The Gold Update anticipates the fresh weekly parabolic short trend as being "short-lived"; indeed by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" confirmed moving up above their -80% axis, an early sign of trend change from negative to positive. At present, the metals triumvirate and the Spoo all are trading above their NZ and volatility is moderate. By Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is 85 points below its smooth valuation line. And at Market Profiles, Gold's most dominant volume supporter is 1778. Q2 Earnings season is underway, the S&P's "live" P/E at 56.4x.
06 Jul '21, 09:05 Central Euro Time: The extended trading session heads into Day 2 with just the Bond trading below its NZ; above same are the Euro, Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil, and volatility is now (given 2 days) moderate-to-robust with Copper and Oil both exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Oil (76.61) would run into multi-month structural price resistance from some 10 years ago should 78 be reached; price by Market Values is (in-real-time) 8 points above its smooth valuation line, itself now 68 which also is a structural downside target should a correction soon ensue. 'Tis a light week for the Econ Baro with Jun's ISM(Svc) due today.
05 Jul '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: Stateside bourses are closed for Independence Day; thus, trading in the BEGOS Markets' 2-day session has its halt from 17:00-22:00 UTC. At present, Copper is trading above its NZ, the Swiss Franc below its NZ, and the other components within same; volatility essentially is light with the exception for Copper which has traded 106% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" rather than beginning to fall as we'd anticipated, are instead crawling across the ceiling. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's weekly parabolic trend as having flipped Short, but that it shall be short-lived.
02 Jul '21, 07:46 Central Euro Time: Early on, all 8 BEGOS Markets are trading within their NZ, indeed with the Jun Payrolls data in the balance, the expectations for which are a 22% increase over those in May: the result shall be a further indication as to if the economic boom has (in our words) "already happened". Session volatility is light but ought pick up into today's data, which also includes May's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. For the present by Market Trends, month-over-month money has been flowing into the Bond, Oil and Spoo, and from the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper.
01 Jul '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: This week's albeit mild drop in Gold has nonetheless been sufficient to flip the parabolic trend from Long to Short; more on that in the next edition of The Gold Update. Yet today, the only 2 BEGOS Markets at present trading above their NZ are the PMs; the other components are within same and volatility is light-to-moderate. Moreover, Gold is (in real-time) 117 points below its smooth valuation line by Market Values. The Spoo is poised to have the S&P open at an all-time high. Today the Econ Baro receives Jun's ISM(Mfg) Index and May's Construction Spending.
30 June '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: Again at present we've all 8 BEGOS Markets trading within their NZ with volatility light. By Market Ranges, EDTRs having been narrowing for the entire bunch for better than a week, albeit only the Spoo's range seems nominally narrow (at present 36 points) vis-à-vis its year-over-year average (56 points). Oil has (thus far) made a "lower low" for a 2nd straight day: mind its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. The S&P briefly touched 4300 yesterday, our "live" P/E now 56.5x with Q2 Earnings Season commencing next Tue (06 Jul). The Econ Baro looks to Jun's ADP jobs data and Chi PMI, plus May's Pending Home Sales.
29 June '21, 09:12 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are at present trading within their NZ and volatility is light. At Market Values, the notable extremes are the Euro as nearly 0.04 points "low", Gold as 120 points "low", and Oil as 5 points "high", all vis-à-vis their smooth valuation lines. By Market Trends, the linregs for the Bond, Spoo and Oil are positive, however the latter's "Baby Blues" are showing the earliest indication of curling over to the downside: on a points basis, yesterday was Oil's weakest day (-1.23) since 20 May (-1.33). Today the Econ Baro receives Jun's Consumer Confidence.
28 June '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: Copper is trading above its NZ to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets; the other 7 components are at present trading within their NZ and volatility is light-to-moderate. Copper's cac volume is moving from Jul into Sep as shall that for Silver as we move into tomorrow. Whilst Copper is for the moment above water, its linreg remains negative; as well, the red metal's 30-mn. MACD, 2-hr. Price Oscillator and 4-hr. MACD all crossed negatively into Fri's settle; more broadly, Copper's daily EMA looks poised for a negative crossover which if confirmed can see price in the upper 3s during July, notably so should the Econ Baro continue its fresh downward course.
25 June '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: 'Tis an important day for the BEGOS Markets as the Fed's favoured inflation gauge -- Core PCE -- is released, expectations actually being for a tick down in growth. At present, Silver is trading above its NZ with the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is light. By Market Trends, the EuroCurrencies and metals triumvirate are maintaining their negative linregs, whilst those for the Bond, Oil and Spoo remain positive. Our most consistent Market Rhythm going back to mid-Jan is Copper's 8-hr. Moneyflow. Due as well for the Econ Baro is May's Personal Income/Spending.
24 June '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: Copper is trading below its NZ and the Spoo above same: were the S&P to open at this instant, 'twould so do just 2 points below its 4257 all-time high (at 4255); the balance of the BEGOS Markets are docile and volatility is mostly light, (Copper having traced 53% of its EDTR). Silver's settle yesterday (25.935) is a full point below its Market Magnet (26.935), more than double the year-over-year median deviation of 0.420; however by Market Trends, Silver's linreg is becoming more consistently negative per the falling "Baby Blues". For the Econ Baro we've May's Durable Orders, plus the final read on Q1's GDP.
23 June '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: Only the 2 EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; volatility is light. The S&P, for which our "live" P/E is now 55.4x, is again flirting with all-time high territory, albeit the picture as unfolding these past 2 months still appears more like that of a massive top: yet, the investing community seems to be "buying" into the narrative that the Fed is remaining dovish; mind interest rates and our MoneyFlow page. May's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, as well as Q1's Current Account deficit.
22 June '21, 09:53 Central Euro Time: Following yesterday's relief rally, all of the BEGOS Markets at present are inside their NZ and volatility is mostly light with just the Swiss Franc having traded beyond 50% (51%) of its EDTR. By Market Trends, the Euro, Gold, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper all are in increasingly-consistent linreg downtrends, whist the Bond and Oil are in increasingly-consistent linreg uptrends; only the Spoo is in an linreg uptrend of decreasing consistency. Notable Market Value extremes find the Euro some 0.04 points "low", Gold some 100 points "low", and Oil nearly 7 points "high". The Econ Baro awaits May's Existing Home Sales.
21 June '21, 09:35 Central Euro Time: The Bond and Gold start the week above their NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being within same; volatility already is moderate and for the Bond 'tis robust by its 141% EDTR tracing. The Gold Update cites price having dropped exceedingly and the Fed's not just being behind the curve but unable to negotiate it. By Market Rhythms, the Euro's daily EMA (13x89) is crossing negatively such that we may (by past performance) see price in the 1.175-1.162 range within 2-3 weeks; by Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" having hesitated are in real-time re-weakening. However, by Market Values, price is nearly 0.05 points below its smooth valuation line.
18 June '21, 09:31 Central Euro Time: The PMs following hard post-Fed selling are gaining a grip with both Gold and Silver the only BEGOS Markets trading above their NZ, the balance of the bunch being within same; volatility is moderate, and with no data due for the Econ Baro, the markets looked poised to "run out the string" for a weekend's repose. By Market Values for the Spoo, its "Baby Blues" for the 2nd time in 4 sessions slipped below the key +80% level, the daily MACD also having confirmed a cross to negative: a run toward 4150 would be well within the typical downside response thereto. However contra to that, the S&P's MoneyFlow has positively outpaced the S&P across recent trading days. Market Values show the Euro as better than 0.04 points "low, Gold as nearly 100 points "low", and Oil still as some 5 points "high". Oil's cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug.
17 June '21, 09:40 Central Euro Time: Post-Fed, the 2 EuroCurrencies continue to work lower, both below their NZ, however above same are the Bond and Copper; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are little changed and volatility is moderate with a lean toward robust for the currencies. Gold is comprehensively testing our oft-mentioned 1846-1808 structural support area within the context of the "June Swoon" as penned 2 weeks prior: by Market Values price (in real-time) is 72 points below its smooth valuation line such that we don't expect too much further downside. The Econ Baro completes its busy week today with Jun's Philly Fed Index and May's Leading Indicators.
16 June '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: Not too surprisingly, ahead of the Fed all 8 BEGOS Markets components are at present within their NZ and volatility is light. Specific to Gold, should the Fed not increase the FedFunds rate, but taper asset purchases, we sense price shall continue its downward track toward settling Jun nearer to 1800 than 1900; (on verra). By Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) moving below their 0% axis as the linreg trend rotates to negative, and similarly so for Silver. Coming into the Fed, the "live" P/E of the S&P 500 is 53.0x. The Econ Baro looks to May's Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Pricing.
15 June '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies are above their NZ whilst both Silver and Copper are below same; the BEGOS Markets' volatility ranges from light for the Bond to robust for Copper, the latter having already traced 142% of its EDTR; Copper (at present 4.4190) has traded down to its lowest level since 26 Apr; the red metal remains the only component with a negative linreg by Market Trends, (which seems contrary to rising inflation expectations; however, price at the moment is still up 25% year-to-date). 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with incoming metrics for Jun's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB Index, May's Retail Sales, PPI and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Apr's Business Inventories.
14 June '21, 10:01 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate are all below their NZ as is the Swiss France, whilst above same is Oil; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price going red ahead of the Fed (Wed), but reminds us that FedFunds increases can bode well for Gold as we saw in 2004-2006; otherwise, the June swoon remains in play; meanwhile at Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) accelerating lower. As for the thinning trade on the S&P, Fri's total constituents' share volume was just 43% of what 'twas on the same date (11 Jun) a year ago, the Index ever so fragile given lack of earnings support.
11 June '21, 10:31 Central Euro Time: Above their respective NZ are both Silver and Copper, with the rest of the BEGOS Markets inside of same; volatility is light-to-moderate. Copper remains the sole component in a linreg downtrend, but by Market Trends, its "Baby Blues" are beginning an up curl. The Bond, Oil and the Spoo are the firmest of the bunch across the past month. Still, the S&P has been fairly subdued in recent days ahead of the ensuing week's schedule of 16 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro (which receives Jun's UofM Sentiment today), plus the FOMC's Policy Statement come Wed. Cac volume on the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is rolling from Jun into Sep.
10 June '21, 09:55 Central Euro Time: The Euro, Gold and Copper are trading below their NZ, with the balance of the BEGOS Markets inside same; volatility remains mostly light, but can pick up on the CPI data due later today for the Econ Baro, and on the volume of the EuroCurrencies and Spoo cacs moving from Jun into Sep as we get through tomorrow. Gold has traded sub-1880, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continuing to fall; the same can be said for those on Silver, Copper and the EuroCurrencies, whilst those for the Bond, Oil and the Spoo continue to ascend; of note however at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points above its smooth valuation line.
09 June '21, 09:40 Central Euro Time: The Bond (+0.2%) is the sole BEGOS Market not trading within its NZ; again, volatility is light. The Spoo's narrowing EDTR (see Market Ranges) by some historical similarities precedes materially lower price levels, (on verra); despite the Spoo being in a firm linreg uptrend with its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) accelerating higher, the S&P itself (4227) is essentially where 'twas nearly 6 weeks ago, further evidence of our aforementioned "massive top" continuing to broaden. And with this past winter's run-up in interest rates, our "live" S&P P/E of 52.6x remains ever more unsustainable. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Wholesale Inventories.
08 June '21, 08:13 Central Euro Time: Early on we've the Bond trading above its NZ, Oil below its NZ, and the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; volatility is light, and per our Market Ranges page, EDTRs notably are narrowing for the Bond, Oil and the Spoo. At Market Trends, per yesterday's note, Gold's "Baby Blues" confirmed slipping below the +80% level and are working lower still today: that "ought" bring the aforementioned 1846-1808 zone into play; too by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) some 63 points above its smooth valuation line. Apr's Trade Deficit comes due for the Econ Baro.
07 June '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: Following a "nothing but up" Fri, the BEGOS Markets begin their week with a negative bias: the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs are all trading below their NZ, the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is pushing toward moderate. The Gold Update sees a weak Jun for the yellow metal with price finishing this month nearer to 1800 than 1900. By Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have provisionally crossed below their key +80% level which upon confirmation shall suggest lower prices near-term, the area we watching being the 1846-1808 zone. April's Consumer Credit arrives late in the session for the Econ Baro.
04 June '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets traded yesterday beyond their EDTRs; at present, their stances are far more subtle with only the 2 EuroCurrencies trading below their NZ and the balance of the bunch within same; thus volatility is comparatively light with the May Payrolls data due for the Econ Baro along with Apr's Factory Orders. In Tue's comment (01 Jun) we pointed to Gold's level (then 1915) as being some 100 points above its smooth valuation line (per Market Values): obviously price has since come off to trade as low as 1856; there is structural price support in the 1846-1808 range, (the sky of course still rightly being the fundamental limit for Gold).
03 June '21, 09:15 Central Euro Time: There's a contra-Dollar downside bias to the BEGOS Markets with the 2 EuroCurrencies and the 2 PMs all trading below their NZ; no component is above its NZ and volatility is light-to-moderate. The Spoo for 8 consecutive trading sessions has achieved neither its ultimate "high" nor "low" daily guesstimate, the EDTR per Market Ranges thus narrowing; such stint has happened twice from a year ago-to-date (to 10 straight sessions in both prior cases); given the StateSide jobs data due these next two days, we'd look for range to begin expanding. Included for the Econ Baro today are the May ADP Employment and ISM(Svc) reports, Q1's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, and the usual weekly Jobless Claims number.
02 June '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets at present are within their NZ and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the gap lower in the Bond reflects price adjusting to yield given the difference in the underlying coupon in rolling from the Jun cac into that for Sep; of note too is Copper's linreg having rotated from positive to negative. By Market Profiles, the Spoo appears entrapped by trading resistance at 4204 and support at 4198: those two apices are the most dominant across the past fortnight. Because of Monday's StateSide holiday, the ADP Jobs data shan't be released until tomorrow; however late in today's session we get the Fed's Tan Tome.
01 June '21, 09:50 Central Euro Time: The "2-day" 01 June session continues, still finding the Bond being the sole BEGOS Market below its NZ; but now above same are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Gold, Silver Oil and the Spoo, the latter having a whirl 'round from lower to now higher; volatility is firmly moderate and looks to turn robust by day's end notably for the EuroCurrencies and Oil. Gold has traded up to 1919, its highest level since 08 Jan; however by Market Values, price is (in real-time) 103 points above its smooth valuation line, something of which to be aware there. The Econ Baro begins its week with May's ISM(Mfg) Index and April's Construction Spending.
31 May '21, 09:23 Central Euro Time: With StateSide bourses closed, the BEGOS Markets as expected quietly commence a 2-day session: save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other components are trading within their NZ and volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update whilst wary of overhead structural resistance even through the 1900s nonetheless makes a mathematical case that at price's current up pace our 2401 forecast high for this year can be achieved; common sense reminds us that 'twill take more of a fundamental realization than an endless technical trend to reach that goal.
28 May '21, 09:31 Central Euro Time: The metals triumvirate and the 2 Euro Currencies are trading below their NZ; none of the other BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ, and volatility is again light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, the Spoo's linreg has rotated from negative to positive such that for the present all 8 components are in uptrends; however, the "Baby Blues" are dipping for Silver whilst those for Gold and the Swiss Franc appear "toppy". 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including May's Chi PMI, Apr's Personal Income/Spending, and the Fed's favoured inflation gauge of the PCE Core Index.
27 May '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets at present are within their respective NZs albeit session volatility is light-to-moderate. Too, the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have narrowed for each component from where they were a week ago. At Market Trends, the Bond's linreg trend is rotating from negative to positive leaving just that for the Spoo as negative (and only mildly so despite the S&P's vast overvaluation and negative moneyflow). The Bond's cac volume is rolling from Jun into Sep as did that yesterday for Gold from Jun into Aug. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the 2nd peek at Q1 GDP.
26 May '21, 09:40 Central Euro Time: Only the Euro is trading below its NZ;the 7 other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light. Gold has re-achieved the 1900 level and per our 24 May note has a reasonable shot of reaching its 2089 All-Time High should the current parabolic weekly Long trend play out as typically did prior such Long trends (both by point gains and duration) for the past 3 years. The Econ Baro has been in fairly daily decline since last peaking 2 weeks ago: this is reflected in the Bond having gained ground especially in recent sessions. The S&P in turn is lacking upside puff in re-challenging the 4200 level: per usual, Earnings are terribly lacking and our S&P MoneyFlow page remains a big red flag.
25 May '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies are trading above their NZ whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P is leaning toward a re-test of its all-time high (4238 on 07 May): 'tis within range for today given the EDTR of the Spoo for which the "high if an up day guesstimate" is 4251. Still, the 21-day linreg trend for the Spoo remains negative such that -- new high or not -- the broader pattern may be that of a "massive top" as has been mentioned in The Gold Update. For the Econ Baro we've May's Consumer Confidence and Apr's New Home Sales.
24 May '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: To start the week the Spoo initially dropped below its Fri low, only to have fully recovered and then some overnight: 'tis at present 4170 and along with the Euro are the only BEGOS Markets trading above their NZ; the balance of the bunch are all within same and volatility is light with just Copper having traded more than 50% (54%) of its EDTR. The Gold Update points to price potentially reaching the All-Time High (2089) during the current parabolic weekly Long trend. Q1 Earnings Season concludes with 77% of the reporting S&P 500 constituents bettering Q1 of a year ago, the Index's best performance since Q3 2018; still, the "live" P/E of 51.8x warrants a 50% correction.
21 May '21, 08:22 Central Euro Time: The Spoo is the sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ, whilst the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility is light-to-moderate. Despite a pair of solid up days for the Spoo, its 21-day linreg trend (see Market Trends) remains negative with the "Baby Blues" (in real-time) at -29%, their lowest reading since 11 March. Today is the final day of Q1 Earnings Season, and obviously whilst they've improved over the COVID Q1 of a year ago, they remain insufficient (understatement) to maintain the extremely high level of the S&P 500, (our "live" P/E at present 53.6x). The Econ Baro closes out the week with Apr's Existing Home Sales.
20 May '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: The Euro and Copper are trading above their NZ whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are trading within same; volatility early on is light-to-moderate, albeit save for the Bond, the EDTRs of all the other components are wider than they were one week ago. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) slipped below their +80% level suggestive of lower price levels near-term down into the structural support spanning 4.55-4.43. Still, only the Bond and the Spoo are in actual linreg downtrends: structurally for the Spoo, should the recent 4029 low break, a run down into the 3979-3843 zone is viable, especially with respect the negativity of the S&P's MoneyFlow. The Econ Baro looks to May's Philly Fed Index and Apr's leading Indicators.
19 May '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Bond, Copper, Oil and the Spoo all are trading below their NZ whilst the sole BEGOS Market above same is the Euro; volatility is light toward turning moderate. Yesterday's 0.9% drop in the S&P was not supported by the MoneyFlow's drop of just 0.4%; however by the MoneyFlow page, more broadly the S&P is due by that metric to trade significantly lower; still, the "fear" wasn't there yesterday. In our 13 May comment, we mused that the S&P's high for the year (4238) may be in place; and by Market Trends with the Spoo's linreg sloping more negatively, 'tis something to consider. The FOMC Minutes from the 27/28 Meeting are due late in the session.
18 May '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, those above their NZ being the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc having traded 101% of its EDTR; mind those at the Market Ranges page, notably for Copper. Meanwhile at Market Magnets, both PMs' prices are getting a bit a far afield to the upside, albeit their Magnets too are in ascent. The Spoo's Market Profile shows 3 key volume supports at 4173, 4158 and 4147; and the Bond (156^18) has traded up against its key Profile resistor of 156^26. Apr's Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro.
17 May '21, 09:48 Central Euro Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets' leaders to commence the new week; no other component is trading above its NZ, whilst below same is the Spoo; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, all but the Bond and Spoo continue to sport positive linregs. Our 600th Edition of The Gold Update acknowledges the 1800s as a congestive price area for the yellow metal, but that in times of stagflation, price historically has done well; too, 'tis pointed out that we are witnessing a "throwing money at everything" mania, also which historically ends badly. The Econ Baro looks to May's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 May '21, 09:39 Central Euro Time: Despite yesterday's Spoo relief rally, and price already trading above its NZ early on today, the linreg trend remains negative, with the "Baby Blues" (in real-time) having now slipped sub-0% per our Market Trends page. Too, yesterday's S&P MoneyFlow was again sub-par. Also above their NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies and Gold, although the latter's 8-hr. MACD has crossed to negative and the 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short. The balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their NZ and volatility is moderate with an eye toward robust as 'tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with May's UofM Sentiment, Apr's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Mar's Business Inventories.
13 May '21, 09:59 Central Euro Time: Copper after trading 34 straight sessions without touching our "low if a down day" finally so did yesterday. By Market Trends, that for Copper nonetheless remains up as it does for most of the other BEGOS Markets save for the Bond and the Spoo, the trends for which have rotated to negative. At present, the EuroCurrencies are trading above today's NZ whilst below same is Oil, and volatility is again moderate. Were the S&P today to trade sub-4043, the Index would be below its 2021 low-to-high regression channel, suggestive that the high (4238) is in for the year; (today's "low if a down day" for the Spoo is 4008). More inflation data comes due as the PPI arrives for the Econ Baro.
12 May '21, 09:04 Central Euro Time: The Spoo early on is sporting its 3rd consecutive down day: in 2021, there's been only one other 3-down day stint and one of 6 down days. All the BEGOS Markets at present are trading within their respective NZ for today and volatility is moderate. Per our S&P MoneyFlow page, that reading remains ghastly. At Market Trends, that for the Spoo appears a day for two from rotating to negative; as you know, such trends have been positive for all 8 components since 'round mid-Apr; however that for the Bond is the first to crack provisionally to negative as of today. Due for the Econ Baro are Apr's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 May '21, 09:35 Central Euro Time: Far overdue (understatement) to decline, the S&P 500 finally is beginning to crack; as we've been noting, the ongoing negative MoneyFlow has been very telling, the lack of earnings vastly under-supportive of price, and the lean toward higher StateSide tax rates are being catalysts for lower S&P levels, as too, interest rates back up. Both Oil and the Spoo are trading below their NZ, however Copper is above same, the latter not having reached our "low if a down day" for 33 consecutive trading days. Specific to the Spoo, it has broken below the belly of its Market Profile such that upon 4140 being breached, we'd look for 4100, even a near-term return to 4000, (which really would only be a 5% correction).
10 May '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: Silver, Copper and Oil are trading above their NZ whilst below same are the Bond and the Euro; session volatility to begin the BEGOS Markets' week is mostly moderate, save for Copper which (+2.3%) has already traced 135% of its EDTR. The Gold Update credits the Fed with the asset valuation scare, made all the more so by the chart therein of the S&P and where it "ought perhaps be" had COVID never occurred: 'tis indicative of how stimulus money has found its home in the stock market; included as well is our horribly negative S&P Moneyflow graphic.
07 May '21, 09:59 Central Euro Time: Gold has (finally) returned to 1800+, in the process the weekly parabolic trend flipping from Short to Long. At present, just 1 BEGOS Market is not inside of its NZ, namely "unconscionable" Copper, now with a 31-day streak of not touching a "low if a down day". Session volatility is light ahead of the Apr Payrolls data. The Fed is (finally) acknowledging the "stretched valuations" (diplomatic understatement) of assets; (we've felt for quite some time 'tis the Fed's worst unspoken nightmare). The S&P Moneyflow is formidably negative and Earnings supportive of just 1/3 the current Index level. In addition to the jobs data, the Econ Baro also receives Mar's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
06 May '21, 09:40 Central Euro Time: Per Market Values, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" confirmed moving below their +80% axis, a highly reliable signal for lower price levels near-term: we see structural support in the 3979-3843 range (for a long overdue correction of at least 5%). Still, the Spoo this session is above its NZ as are all of the BEGOS Markets except the Bond and the Swiss Franc; volatility is moderate. The Euro's "Baby Blues" also slipped below their +80% level such as to suggest a price test of at least the mid-to-lower 1.19s. Copper has now traded for 30 consecutive days -- that's 6 weeks -- without touching the guesstimated "low if a down day". Due for the Econ Baro is Q1's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 May '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ, whilst the Spoo trades above same; however, barring a substantive up session, the Spoo looks to its "Baby Blues " (see Market Trends) confirming a slip below their key +80% level come today's close such as to target lower price levels near-term. The balance of the BEGOS Markets are quiet and volatility is light-to-moderate. Well into Q1 Earnings Season finds 79% of the S&P 500's constituents having bettered their bottom lines, but the overall level of earnings is just one-third of that necessary to support the S&P's vast overvaluation. At the MoneyFlow page, the quarterly read shows the S&P as 447 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Apr's ADP jobs numbers and the ISM(Svc) Index.
04 May '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: Yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets were up, Silver notably +4.0% such as to keep her "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) aloft. Today, all 8 components are down, notably with the EuroCurrencies, Gold and Copper all trading below their NZ; volatility is again moderate. The Spoo's daily Parabolics flipped from Long to Short, albeit given the relentless ascent of the Spoo these many months, this study's Shortside has not been met with much downside. Our "live" P/E for the S&P 500 has dropped from the 70s into the 60s with TSLA (1.8% of the Index) having nearly halved its own P/E, (to 585.9x; that for GM is 13.1x and for F 'tis 11.4x). Mar's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
03 May '21, 09:14 Central Euro Time: Both PMs are trading above their NZ as the BEGOS Markets start the week; this in spite of our near-term bearish tone in The Gold Update as various technical indicators have turned negative, including Gold's daily Parabolics having flipped from Long to Short. The balance of the BEGOS bunch are trading within their NZ and volatility even early on already is moderate. As was confirmed for Gold on Fri, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have slipped below their +80% level (see Market Trends), indicative of lower prices in the offing. The Econ Baro begins its relatively busy week with Apr's ISM Index and Mar's Construction Spending.
30 Apr '21, 09:52 Central Euro Time: Silver and Oil are trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is fairly light early on toward closing out Apr. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are the 1st of the bunch to crack below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels ahead: this may see the Mar low of 153^07 tested, (price is presently 157^03); both Gold and Silver are approaching similar "Baby Blues" stances, Gold without having reached our anticipated 1800 level. Today's Econ Baro looks to Apr's Chi PMI, Mar's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, plus Q1's Employment Cost Index.
29 Apr '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: We've had days of late where 'round this time the BEGOS Markets either all are up or all are down; today we're split: Silver (for which the cac volume is rolling from Mar into Jul), Copper Oil and the Spoo are trading above their NZ; the Bond is trading below same, and the EuroCurrencies, plus Gold, too are trading down. Volatility is moderate. The S&P yesterday crossed above the 4200 level; the Spoo is not making progress toward closing its gap (now 155 points high in real-time) to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro gets its first peek at Q1 GDP and Mar's Pending Home Sales.
28 Apr '21, 09:43 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, (9 if we include the ¥en): and all but Oil and the Spoo are trading below their NZ; volatility is well-moderate and may approach robust should some of the components exceed EDTR tracings of 100%, (i.e. post-FOMC at 18:00 GMT). Gold has struggled this week to achieve our anticipated 1800, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning to roll over, as too are those for the Bond. At Market Values, the Spoo still shows as excessively "high", some 153 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line. Copper's cac volume is moving from May into Jul.
27 Apr '21, 09:47 Central Euro Time: Just as was the case 'round this time yesterday, Copper (again +1.3%) is the BEGOS Markets' big winner and the only component trading above its NZ; the balance of the bunch are within same and volatility is again mostly moderate. By the conventional "textbook technicals", Copper is "moderately overbought" but not (yet?) "extremely overbought" as 'twas during the 12-25 Feb period. However, by our Market Magnet measure, Copper's deviation (+0.2260 points) is "extreme" such that a near-term drop (historically 2% to 12%) wouldn't be untoward. Apr's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Apr '21, 09:53 Central Euro Time: Copper (+1.3%) is the big winner in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets: the red metal is the only component trading above its NZ; below same are the Bond and Oil; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Trends, not only do all 8 components remain in linreg uptrends, but save for Copper and Oil, the respective levels of the "Baby Blues" for the other 6 markets are all +80% or higher. Yet by Market Values, only the Spoo is still at an extreme, reading in real-time as 178 points "high". The Gold Update supports price reaching at least 1800 this week, and again severely stresses the vast overvaluation of the S&P. The Econ Baro begins a fairly busy week with Mar's Durable Orders.
23 Apr '21, 09:58 Central Euro Time: The Euro and Copper are trading above their NZ, whilst below it is the Bond; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. At the page for the S&P's MoneyFlow, 'tis unsupportive on each of the weekly, monthly and quarterly bases; obvious by Earnings 'tis the same unsupportive issue, the "live" P/E at present 77.0x. Still by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking lower for their 4th consecutive session, now at the +86% level; and at Market Values, the Spoo's reading is (in real-time) 168 points "high". The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with Mar's New Home Sales.
22 Apr '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc is trading above its NZ, Copper below its NZ, and the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are still above their +80% axis and all 8 components remains in linreg uptrends; yesterday's Spoo recovery now finds price (in real-time) 204 points above its smooth valuation line per Market Values. Gold is knocking on the door of 1800 having traded in the 1798 handle both yesterday and thus far today. The Econ Baro in a uneventful week to this point looks to Mar's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
21 Apr '21, 08:10 Central Euro Time: All 3 BEGOS Markets metals (aka the "triumvirate") are trading above their NZ; the balance of the bunch are within same and volatility is light at this early stage, yet ought turn moderate. The Spoo following a 2nd consecutive down day is still (in real-time) by Market Values 178 points above its smooth valuation line; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have reached above their +80% axis, however are just kinking a tad lower both yesterday and today: a confirmed stance below +80% would then suggest lower prices still; currently 4122, the 4123 level is the most dominantly-traded level of the past fortnight per the Market Profile.
20 Apr '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Euro, Copper and Oil are all trading above their NZ, whilst below same is the Bond; volatility is light-to-moderate and (per our prior comment) all 8 BEGOS Markets remain in linreg uptrends. Yesterday's -0.4% change nonetheless still finds price by Market Values now (in real-time) as 236 points above the smooth valuation line. Of the Spoo's 73 completed trading days year-to-date, consecutive down days have occurred but 13 times, (and at this writing the Spoo is +0.2% in the session). The "live" P/E of the S&P 500 is 77.5x, its yield is 1.377%, and the young Q1 Earnings Season is thus far showing improved results on balance, but the level of earnings themselves are nowhere supportive of the extremely overvalued S&P.
19 Apr '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: The U.S. Money Supply ("M2") just topped $20 Trillion: see The Gold Update. The BEGOS Markets begin their week with Copper (+2.2%) trading above its NZ, the balance of the 7 other components being within same; volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 26% EDTR tracing to a 144% tracing already for Copper. At Market Trends, all 8 markets are now in linreg uptrends, the Dollar having weakened (though not materially) over the past 3 weeks. And at Market Values, the Spoo remains at an extreme "high" level, some 261 points so in real-time.
16 Apr '21, 09:21 Central Euro Time: Gold gained good ground (+1.6%) yesterday in trading as high as 1771 toward our "near-term" notion of 1800. So far today, 'tis quiet early on as are all the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper which is trading below its NZ; volatility is light. The S&P sits at a record-high 4170, the "live" P/E being 79.8, and our Market Values reading finding the Spoo (in real-time) 266 points above its smooth valuation line; the other 4 primary BEOGS components (Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil) are comparably much closer to their valuation lines. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with Apr's UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Mar's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Apr '21, 09:43 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 yesterday recorded just its 3rd down session of the past 10; with upside looking to resume today, the Spoo trading above its NZ as is the metals triumvirate; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ, and volatility is light-to-moderate. In spite of yesterday being lower, the Spoo is by Market Values (in real-time) 254 points above its smooth valuation line. Dollar weakness indeed has all 8 BEGOS Markets higher at the moment. The Econ Baro looks to a busy session of 9 incoming metrics, including Apr's NY State Empire, Philly Fed and NAHB Indexes, Mar's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Feb's Business Inventories.
14 Apr '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: The Spoo continues to creep higher into record territory; but despite the S&P's Moneyflow being strong yesterday, the Index is now by our textbook technical stance "extremely overbought" (given BollBands, Stochastics and RSI readings) such that selling historically has been in the offing from such measures. The S&P's "live" P/E is 80.5x. And the Spoo itself by Market Values reads (in real-time) as 262 points "high". At present however, the BEGOS Markets are quiet with just Copper and Oil trading above their NZ, and volatility is light. Mar's Ex/Im Pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Apr '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: The Bond, EuroCurrencies and Gold are all trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Ranges, narrowing volatility finds all 8 components with reduced EDTRs from both the prior day and the prior week. Nonetheless, our sense is given StateSide Tax Day come Thu, the Econ Baro's busy load, the beginning of Q1 Earnings Season, more $ trillions targeted to be spent and China's sabre-rattling, that trading ranges soon shall be expanding. An expected increase in retail inflation is due today for the Baro via Mar's CPI.
12 Apr '21, 10:09 Central Euro Time: Q1 Earnings Season commences with the "live" S&P 500 P/E at 76.0x, some 3-to-4 times what is taught in business school as "expensive". Save for the Bond (which is up but within its NZ), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, those below their NZ at present being the Euro, the metals triumvirate, and Oil; volatility is trending toward moderate. By Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) 245 points above its smooth valuation line as we continue anticipating an imminent move down, which by historical median would put the Spoo in the low 3900s (about -5%). The Gold Update underscores our near-term expectation of price moving up to 1800. The Econ Baro begins a week of 17 incoming metrics starting with Mar's Treasury Budget.
09 Apr '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets (9 if one includes the Yen) are in the red which means the Dollar is firmer today. 5 of the 8 are trading below their NZ: the Bond, the Euro, and the metals triumvirate; volatility is moderate. The Spoo settled at 4098, which by subtracting the negative fair value (of -9.30) places the S&P 500 above 4100: however, "that may be all she wrote" with the Spoo retracting thus far this session. By Market Values (in real-time) the Spoo still reads as 229 points "high" such that (per yesterday's comment) a 150-200 point imminent down move would (given historical precedent) be reasonable. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's PPI and Feb's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Apr '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Spoo in this session has traded above its NZ to as high as 4092, which would place the S&P atop 4100. Also above their NZ are the Euro and the metals triumvirate; volatility is light-to-moderate. With reference to yesterday's Spoo Market Value extreme (now 229 points "high" in real-time), the historical median fallout would find the S&P 'round 3930 within a week's time, should such repeat; the four other primary BEGOS Markets are not sporting material deviations from their smooth valuation lines. Gold remains resilient: again a near-term run to 1800 wouldn't be untoward a wit.
07 Apr '21, 10:03 Central Euro Time: Our only Market at present trading outside (above) its NZ is the Bond, otherwise 'tis eerily quiet on the BEGOS front, with volatility mostly light. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are into their 4th session of flatlining near the +54% level rather than rising as had been the market's wont for better than a week on balance; at Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 213 points above its smooth valuation line which is extreme to the highside: the prior two like instances (16 Nov and 02 Sep) led to materially tradable selloffs. Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
06 Apr '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc, Copper and (yes) the Spoo all are trading below their NZ, whilst Oil is trading above same; volatility is trending toward moderate as bourses globally get back to work following the extended weekend. The "live" P/E of the S&P is now 77.5x, some 3-to-4 times what is historically deemed as "expensive"; the 4000 milestone may finally manifest money managers taking money off the table, especially as debt yields are more materially departing upward from that on the S&P (1.413%) vs. 1.720% on the 10-yr. Note and 2.363% on the Bond. By our MoneyFlow page, performance remains sub-par to the S&P itself on both the monthly and quarterly charts.
05 Apr '21, 09:55 Central Euro Time: Starting the week for the BEGOS Markets we've just Copper trading above its NZ; below same are the Bond, Euro and Silver; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update underscores with respect to last week's price dive-and-recovery that volume on the way back up was triple that initially recorded on the way down, i.e. the buyers are in charge such that we anticipate 1800 as achievable near-term. As well, Gold is only 1 of 2 components with positive linregs (per Market Trends) at present, the other being that for the Spoo. The Econ Baro begins its week with Mar's ISM(Svc) Index and Feb's Factory Orders.
02 Apr '21, 08:33 Central Euro Time: The S&P has "against all odds" both traded and settled above 4000 for the first time: the "live" P/E is 74.8x and the yield 1.433%; that for the 10-Yr. US Note is 1.679% (and for the 30-Yr Bond is 2.340%). Although a holiday today, the BEGOS Markets' Bond, Eurocurrencies and Spoo are in abbreviated trading sessions (for which we'll account in Mon's trade date of 05 Apr) so as to account for the release of the Mar StateSide Payrolls data today at 12:30 GMT, after which we'll update the Econ Baro. The Spoo trades until 13:15 GMT and the Bond and Currencies until 15:15 GMT. Then tomorrow we've the 594th consecutive Sat edition of The Gold Update.
01 Apr '21, 09:19 Central Euro Time: The 1st day of Q2 is also the last trading day of this week for the BEGOS Markets, (albeit the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo shall have a smattering of overnight activity to accommodate tomorrow's StateSide payrolls report for Mar.). Thus far, both the Bond and Gold are above their NZ whilst below same are the Swiss Franc and Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P made a run yesterday toward 4000, only to fail from 3994: but the session's MoneyFlow was stronger than the change in the Index itself, suggesting the larger hands are seeking the numerical milestone, and by Market Trends, the Spoo's linreg remains decidedly up. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's ISM(Mfg) Index and Feb's Construction Spending.
31 Mar '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: Oil is trading above its NZ, but the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is mostly light as Q1 draws to a close; of note, whilst not officially a BEGOS component, the Yen (which has been getting hammered of late) has traded 119% of its EDTR; but our 2 EuroCurrencies have both traded less than 50% to this point of the session. The PMs have slipped: recall from the current Gold Update our concern about their "Baby Blues" per Market Trends not looking "overly encouraging". Key inputs for the Econ Baro today include Mar's ADP Employment data and Chicago PMI, plus Feb's Pending Home Sales.
30 Mar '21, 10:37 Central Euro Time: 'Tis at present an all-red Session for the 8 BEGOS Markets, with only Oil and the Spoo not trading below their NZ; weakest are the PMs, both -0.8%; volatility is moderate, although the narrowest-traded to this point are the noted Oil and Spoo. The Bond is down a full point and has broken below prior broad-based support, thus yield ought further pop today. The Euro looks en route to test the bottom of its prior support structure (1.1625), price at present 1.1757; however by Market Values, the Euro (as it has been for most of this year) is some 2 points below its smooth valuation line. Mar's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
29 Mar '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: Reported fund loss worries (despite the S&P finishing Fri at an all-time closing high) are giving jitters to the BEGOS Markets in starting the week: only the safe haven Bond is trading above its NZ, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to price's recent narrowness as perhaps a consolidative phase, with 1800 then reasonably in the balance; recounted as well are the warning signs for an S&P crash borne of lousy earnings, rising debt yields, and tax increases. And on balance, the Econ Baro has been weakening month-to-date.
26 Mar '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: No BEGOS Market is trading below its NZ, whilst above same are the Euro, Copper and Oil; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed notching above their -80% axis, suggestive of higher levels: at present 155^30, the Bond near-term may make a test of the 11 Mar high at 158^28; as noted yesterday, the Bond remains 5 points "low" vis-à-vis its its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro wraps up its week with metrics including Feb's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured gauge inflation gauge of Core PCE.
25 Mar '21, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' bias is to the downside with the Swiss Franc, Silver, Copper and Oil all trading below their NZ, and none of the balance above same; volatility is moving toward moderate. The best performer of the bunch from a full week ago is the Bond, +1.3%; still by Market Values, the Bond appears (in real-time) as some 5 points "low". Regardless, the Dollar continues getting the bid, its Index (92.670) up to its highest level since 23 Nov. The S&P's recent inability to keep going up day-after-day finds it a bit more in line with the charts on our Moneyflow page, albeit the "live" P/E (70.7x) is unsustainable especially as rates back up. The Econ Baro looks to the final Q4 read on GDP.
24 Mar '21, 08:31 Central Euro Time: Early on we've further weakness in the 2 EuroCurrencies, both trading below their NZ, whilst above same are Copper and Oil; volatility is light. Per Market Trends, save for the Spoo, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are now in linreg downtrends. Gold is struggling to stay firm, although price at present (1726) is near the center of its Market Profile, the most dominantly-traded price of the past 2 weeks being 1730; Silver however has slipped to the base of her profile at 25.10, a full point below her dominant price of 26.10. Feb's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Mar '21, 09:45 Central Euro Time: The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ; below same are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver and Oil; volatility is moving toward moderate. By Market Trends, only the Spoo and Oil (barely) are in linreg uptrends, the latter (as noted) likely to have rotated to negative within the next day or so. By both Market Values and Market Magnets we've no extreme deviations. But the S&P's "live" P/E is now an extraordinary 74.4x, even as the Index's yield at 1.443% is below that of the 10-yr. Note at 1.684%. The Econ Baro looks to Feb's New Home Sales and Q4's Current Account.
22 Mar '21, 09:41 Central Euro Time: The new week for the BEGOS Markets finds the Bond beginning above this session's NZ whilst the 2 PMs start below same; volatility is light-to-moderate with the exception of Silver which has already traced 102% of its EDTR. The Gold Update is nonetheless price bullish near-term with 1800 reasonably in play. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are sufficiently dropping such that the linreg trend may rotate to negative within the next few days. The Econ Baro opens its week with Feb's Existing Home Sales. 4 replacements in the S&P 500 bump up our "live" P/E from 71x to 73x, one of the noted departures being once-mighty Xerox.
19 Mar '21, 09:45 Central Euro Time: Whilst yesterday was an all red finish for the BEGOS Markets, at present none are trading below their NZ, and above same are the Bond and Oil, (the latter having been hammered -7.5% on Thu; the 59-57 area appears near-term structurally supportive). Volatility is moderate within the context that all EDTRs (save for those of the PMs) are higher than where they were a month ago. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time slipping below their 0% axis, meaning that the red metal's linreg trend has rotated from positive to negative. As well, Copper's volatility of late has pushed its EDTR to 0.1365 points, nearly double the year-over-year median of 0.0680 points.
18 Mar '21, 09:41 Central Euro Time: Save for Gold, Silver and the Spoo, the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets are trading below their NZ; the diving Bond has traded 126% of its EDTR and volatility otherwise is moderate. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" continue their ascent as more noticeably now do those too for Silver and the Swiss Franc. The S&P again is in EDTR distance of reaching 4000 today should stocks get the bid, (which by the Spoo at present they shan't); the "live" P/E of the S&P is 75.6x and its yield remains below that of the 10-year Note. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's Philly Fed Index and Feb's Leading Indicators.
17 Mar '21, 09:34 Central Euro Time: Save for the Swiss Franc (-0.3%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are trading within their NZ; volatility remains light given the context of wider recent EDTRs. Gold is remaining firm following its brush with the 1600s, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing to ascend; by Market Values, Gold still shows "low" (in real-time) by 73 points. Yesterday's incoming metrics saw the Econ Baro drop its most in more than 3 years (tying with 3 other drops of the same magnitude since Sep 2017). Today brings Feb's Housing Starts/Permits and the FOMC's policy statement.
16 Mar '21, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 is within its EDTR of reaching 4000. Presently, all of the BEGOS Markets (save for Copper -1.0%) are trading inside of their NZ and volatility is again light as EDTRs which had be increasing of late begin to be tempered. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are continuing their ascent as price -- which a week ago by Market Values was 171 points below is smooth valuation line -- further is firming. 'Tis a engaging day for the Econ Baro with 8 metrics due, including Mar's NAHB Housing Index, Feb's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Jan's Business Inventories.
15 Mar '21, 09:55 Central Euro Time: In starting the week we've Oil trading above its NZ and the Euro below same; otherwise the rest of the BEGOS Markets are thus far fairly muted; volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update suggests the 1673 low of a week ago may be as low as it goes: that has essentially tested the entirety of the 1789-1672 support zone; moreover by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have curled up back above their -80% axis by which we can anticipate higher prices, indeed a run back to 1800 (1759-1816 appears resistive). 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro, some 14 metrics due beginning today with the NY State Empire Index, plus an FOMC policy statement come Wed.
12 Mar '21, 09:03 Central Euro Time: Save for Oil and the Spoo both trading within their NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are all trading below same; volatility is mostly moderate. Recent firmness in the 2 EuroCurrencies is fading, their linregs (see Market Trends) still decidedly down, although specific to the Euro by Market Values, price (1.19685) remains 0.02 points "low" via the smooth valuation line. As for the Spoo, it closed yesterday 90 points above its Market Magnet, an fairly extreme deviation. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's UofM Sentiment Survey and Feb's PPI.
11 Mar '21, 09:14 Central Euro Time: Trading above their NZ are both Gold and Copper; the other 6 BEGOS Markets are in neutral change territory and volatility is again light-to-moderate following a comparatively narrow range across all the components yesterday. Today may be similarly narrow as incoming EconData is limited whilst all await whatever the Godot catalyst is to either drive the S&P to 4000 or more common-sensibly commence the crash. 73.1x is our "live" P/E at the moment for the S&P. By Market Trends, save for Copper and Oil, the other components all are in negative linreg trends. And by Market Values we've still extreme deviations from their respective smooth valuation lines for the Bond, the Euro, Gold and Oil.
10 Mar '21, 09:15 Central Euro Time: The Bond and the 2 EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked a notch higher for the first time in some 2 weeks; those exhibiting ongoing falling are for the EuroCurrencies, Silver and Copper. The S&P's Moneyflow saw its strongest inflow since 07 Jan, however we continue to caution that the Index is obviously at dangerously high levels given the lack of earnings, plus now rising debt yields. Feb's CPI and Treasury Budget come due for the Econ Baro.
09 Mar '21, 09:57 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets (save for Copper -1.2%) are all to the upside, of which all (save for Oil +0.8%) are trading above their NZ; volatility is moderate. The "live" P/E of the S&P remains a treacherously high 67.0x and per the Moneyflow page such flow these days clearly is unsupportive of the S&P's level. Moreover, despite the Spoo's recent rebound attempts, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are working lower even into real-time this session. By Market Values, the Spoo shows as near its smooth valuation line, however the balance are very extreme with the Bond 11 points "low", the Euro 0.03 points "low", Gold 148 points "low", and Oil 9 points "high".
08 Mar '21, 12:18 Central Euro Time: Early on, the BEGOS Markets had mostly begun the week to the upside; however save for Silver (+0.3%), the balance of the bunch all are down, those trading below their NZ being the 2 EuroCurrencies, Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate, albeit Copper has traced 114% of its EDTR. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their +80% axis thus setting expectations for still lower levels ahead; in real-time, the "Baby Blues" are lower in this session for all 8 BEGOS components. The Gold Update cites price now truly brushing the 1600s as has been anticipated. The Econ Baro starts a not-too-cluttered week with Jan's Wholesale Inventories.
05 Mar '21, 11:57 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's 4.9% increase in Oil with another +1.6% in this session is enough to have whipsawed the fresh technical daily negatives back to positives (parabolic and MACD): however, price has reached the anticipated 65s (see 02 Feb comment), which with the 66 level are major price tops across the past 2 years; recovering today as well are the Bond and Copper, whilst the Euro further weakens sub-1.20; volatility is mostly moderate: again, mind the expanding EDTRs on the Market Ranges page. The Spoo's major daily technicals continue to weaken; recall our 01 Mar comment as to the S&P's Moneyflow being "extremely negative", the Spoo having subsequently fallen nearly 200 points. 'Tis Feb's Payrolls data due today for the Econ Baro, along with Jan's Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
04 Mar '21, 14:11 Central Euro Time: The Bond and Gold are trading above their NZ; below same are the 2 EuroCurrencies and Copper; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both the Swiss Franc and Copper having exceeded 100% EDTR tracings. Despite Oil being +0.7%, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed their drop sub-80% and in real-time are further falling as is the daily MACD continuing its negativity and the parabolic remaining Short. At Market Values, the Bond is an extreme 11 points "low", the Euro 0.02 points "low", Gold 150 points "low" and Oil nearly 6 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Factory Orders, plus Q4's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
03 Mar '21, 09:48 Central Euro Time: With session volatility comparably light, the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold are trading below their NZ; above same are Oil and the Spoo; but (in real-time) the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are tapping their 0% axis, essentially meaning the linreg trend has rotated from up to flat. As well, Oil's "Baby Blues" have provisionally slipped sub-80%, which with the daily parabolics having flipped to Short and the MACD having negatively crossed suggests a run into the 58s; and should 57 fail, we'd look for the 53s. Feb's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index come due for the Econ Baro.
02 Mar '21, 10:23 Central Euro Time: Just as yesterday we found "everything as up" today we find "everything as down". No one BEGOS Market is trading above its NZ, whilst below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and the Spoo; volatility is light-to-moderate within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are expanding. Per Market Trends and as noted yesterday, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have lurched even lower in this session. Moreover (save for the Bond which has been consistently selling off of late), the "Baby Blues" are falling for every BEGOS component. Note therefore (typically) that the Dollar is gaining ground. Q4 Earnings Season is concluded: for those 455 S&P 500 constituents having reported, only 59% bettered their bottom line of Q4 from a year ago.
01 Mar '21, 10:21 Central Euro Time: Oil (+1.6%) and the Spoo (+1.2) bounce out of the box to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets; also above their NZ are all 3 metals; below same are the Bond and both EuroCurrencies; volatility is moderate. Despite its firm start, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are swiftly falling, and as cited in The Gold Update, the S&P's Moneyflow (as regressed into S&P points) is extremely negative; as well the weekly missive notes Gold last week coming within 15 points of a "brush the 1600s". Due for the Econ Baro are Feb's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jan's Construction Spending.
26 Feb '21, 10:06 Central Euro Time: The Bond and the Spoo are the 2 BEGOS Markets trading at present above their NZ; below same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and Oil; volatility is again moderate with just the Bond trading beyond its EDTR. In real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have lurched lower for the 1st time in some 3 weeks: this is in line with both the MACD and Parabolic daily studies having gone negative as noted at the start of this week. As well, Gold today has traded down to 1754 which is below last week's low: and as we know, Gold's weekly Parabolic trend had already flipped to Short, so the notion of a "brush with the 1600s" may play out in the near-term. Included in today's Econ Baro metrics are Feb's Chi PMI and Jan's Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE.
25 Feb '21, 10:08 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' 2 EuroCurrencies returned to positive correlation and both are trading above their NZ; below same are Gold and the Bond, the cac volume for the latter rolling from Mar into Jun, whist that from Silver rolls from Mar into May; save for the Bond having already traced 109% of its EDTR, volatility is moderate. As noted back on 02 Feb, Oil appears destined for 65; however its recent robust up-run finds price (in real-time at 63.66) nearly 10 full points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the 2nd peek at Q4 GDP.
24 Feb '21, 10:27 Central Euro Time: In odd juxtaposition we've the Euro trading above its NZ and the Swiss Franc below same, as is Copper, the cac volume for which is rolling from Mar into May. The balance of the bunch are within their NZ, and volatility is still moderate-to-robust. Following 5 consecutive down days, the S&P recovered (barely) yesterday; however the new negative stances on the daily studies of MACD and Parabolic are becoming more so. As well, the conventional Moneyflow study has slipped below the .50 midpoint level; our regressed Moneyflow measure for the past five sessions suggests the S&P ought be 101 points lower than the present 3881. Jan's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Feb '21, 11:38 Central Euro Time: Both the Spoo's daily MACD and daily Parabolic confirmed their negative crossings: at present, the Spoo, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; and again we've volatility running from moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo all exceeding 100% EDTR tracings. The Spoo by Market Values has returned to its smooth valuation line after having been recently better than 100 points above it. The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Consumer Confidence.
22 Feb '21, 15:00 Central Euro Time: The Spoo's daily MACD is provisionally crossing negative as is the daily Parabolic flipping to Short, price beginning the week now below it NZ; above same are the Euro, Gold, Copper and Oil; volatility is again moderate-to-robust with the Swiss Franc, Copper, Oil and the Spoo all exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Gold has briefly traded above 1800, however The Gold Update cautions of price potentially having a brush with the 1600s given the weekly Parabolic having flipped to Short and structural resistance running from 1789 down to 1672. Jan's Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
19 Feb '21, 10:31 Central Euro Time: Further Dollar weakness finds the BEGOS Markets' currencies trading above their NZ, as too is Copper; below same is Oil, (back sub-$60); volatility is moderate-to-robust with Silver, Copper and Oil all exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Copper has reached its highest level since Feb 2012, nearing the aforementioned re-test as well as the $4/lb. mark which last traded in Sep 2011 when Gold first pushed 1900. Within the context of the new weekly Parabolic Short trend, Gold's 1789-1672 structural area is in play. Jan's Existing Home Sales round out the Econ Baro's busy week.
18 Feb '21, 10:48 Central Euro Time: No BEGOS Market is trading below its NZ, whilst above it are the 2 EuroCurrencies, plus Gold and Copper; volatility is moderate, save for Copper which has traced 171% of its EDTR and looks to be targeting a re-test of the Feb 2012 high at 3.9895. At Market Trends, 4 of the components have positive linregs: Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; the other 4 as negative: the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. And by Market Values, prices for the 5 primary components are well-away from their respective smooth valuation lines. 'Tis another busy day for the Econ Baro with Feb's Philly Fed Index, plus Jan's Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices.
17 Feb '21, 14:22 Central Euro Time: Gold overnight flipped its weekly Parabolics from Long to Short: this could set up a down run to brush the upper 1600s, albeit our forecast high for this year remains at 2401. Joining Gold in trading below its NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies; only Oil is above same; volatility is mostly moderate, save for Oil which has traded 126% of its EDTR and for which cac volume is moving from Mar toward Apr. By Market Values, Oil (in real-time) at 60.85 is 8.66 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to 8 incoming metrics today including Feb's NAHB Housing Index, Jan's Retail Sales, PPI and IndProd/CapUtil, and Dec's Business Inventories.
16 Feb '21, 10:02 Central Euro Time: The 2-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets: still above their NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver and Oil, the Spoo having also moved above same; the Bond and Yen are below their NZ, whilst Gold is within its NZ; volatility is moderate, (the Yen not an official BEGOS component having traded 151% of its EDTR). By its Market Value (in real-time) the Spoo shows as 139 points "high"; by the same study, Oil shows as 8 points "high", the Bond as 6 points "low", the Euro as nearly 0.02 points "low"and Gold as 67 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's NY State Empire Index.
15 Feb '21, 10:32 Central Euro Time: Given StateSide physical bourses are closed for President's Day, the BEGOS Markets are into a 2-day session with the Bond trading below its NZ and having already traded 107% of 'tis EDTR; the other component below its NZ is Gold, The Gold Update entitled "Make Gold Your Stash Before the S&P Crash": nuff said. Above their NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver and Oil, the latter having leapt above 60 toward our recent notion for a move to 65. A busy week awaits the Econ Baro with 16 metrics due.
12 Feb '21, 10:29 Central Euro Time: The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market component trading above its NZ; below same are the 2 EuroCurrencies, plus Gold, Copper and Oil; volatility is mostly moderate. The S&P 500 again settled at our textbook technical stance of "extremely overbought", the Index really struggling to push higher, its quick down streaks being met time and again with measured buying. Still, by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) shows as 97 points "high", and by Market Magnets as 77 points "high"; also 77 points "high" is the S&P vis-à-vis its Moneyflow across the past 5 trading days. Feb's UofM Sentiment comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Feb '21, 11:21 Central Euro Time: The Spoo continues its upward creep despite some nervous RTH selling yesterday; 'tis at present in the NZ as are all of the other BEGOS Markets; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P's Moneyflow has underperformed the change in the Index each day now for better than a week; a bevy of analytical colleagues are seeking an imminent multi-hundred point down move for the Index. At Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is running 117 points above its smooth valuation line. And by Market Profiles, the Spoo's nearby high-volume apices are: 3909, 3901, 3880 and 3830.
10 Feb '21, 10:08 Central Euro Time: Into "real-time hours" and still the Spoo is well under-trading the breadth of its EDTR as has been the case these recent days: at present, just 36% of today's 59-point expected range has been traced, however the price of the S&P remains textbook "extremely overbought". The other end of the spectrum finds Copper with a 115% EDTR tracing; the red metal along with the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold are trading above their NZ and the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; overall volatility is mostly moderate. For the Econ Baro we've Jan's CPI and Treasury Budget along with Dec's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Feb '21, 10:08 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 per yesterday's settle (3915.59) reached our textbook technical reading of "extremely overbought": 'tis the 3rd such time this year for such event, yet the S&P refuses to come off by any measurable extent; the "live" P/E is 85.9x. Still, the Spoo at present is actually down a tad, (still within its NZ), whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are higher; volatility is pushing toward moderate. Per our Moneyflow page, 'tis not been supportive of the S&P's uptrend across the past 5 trading days. And thus far for Q4 Earnings Season, of the 275 S&P constituents having reported, only 60% (166) have bettered their bottom lines of a year ago.
08 Feb '21, 10:19 Central Euro Time: The week begins mostly negative for the BEGOS Markets with just Oil +0.9% the Spoo +0.2% not at present in the red; weakest is the Bond -0.4% and below its NZ, as are the 2 EuroCurrencies and Gold; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal being traded more as a commodity rather than as THE Currency; moreover, the weekly parabolic trend came near to flipping Short last week; price this week must stay above 1782.3 to avoid such flip. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are curling up (in real-time) from their 0% axis, a higher-high having now been made for the fifth consecutive session.
05 Feb '21, 12:03 Central Euro Time: The relentless, non-earnings-supportive S&P achieves another all-time high to be furthered 'twould appear at the RTH opening 'round the 3889 level given the current price of the Spoo (3882, +0.4%). With the exception of the Bond and Euro, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ; volatility is moderate. Still per yesterday, by Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are teasing their 0% axis. For the Econ Baro we've Jan's Payrolls report, along with Dec's Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
04 Feb '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: Early-on we've none of the BEGOS Markets trading at present above their NZ; below it are the 2 EuroCurrencies and the 2 PMs; volatility is on a moderate pace. In real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have reached down to tease their 0% axis line: below that level, the linreg trend rotates to negative. The Euro appears poised to move down into the 1.9s, even as by Market Values price is better than 0.03 points below the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus Dec's Factory Orders.
03 Feb '21, 14:43 Central Euro Time: Silver indeed closed the "squeeze" gap and then some, albeit today 'tis at present +1.4% and firmest of the BEGOS Markets; also above its NZ is Oil; below same are the Bond and the Euro; volatility has backed off to being light-to-moderate. The "live" S&P 500 P/E = 86.3x whilst the forward reading is 25.0x, meaning that earnings must more than triple to get in line: thus far in Q4, the median earnings change is but +5%. Lack of earnings support plus "squeeze" speculations are the perfect recipe for the stock market to crash. Jan's ADP Jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index are due for the Econ Baro.
02 Feb '21, 11:19 Central Euro Time: Following Silver's "squeeze" by as much as +12% to 30.350 from Fri's settle of 27.060, price (not unexpectedly) is giving the bulk of it all back, at present 27.815. Also below its NZ are the two other metals, plus the Bond, whilst above same are Oil and the Spoo; volatility is again moderate-to-robust. Oil is breaking out to the upside following 3 weeks of range-bound trading: structurally 'twould appear price can run up to test the Jan 2020 high of 65.65. By Market Trends, only Oil and the "beyond belief" Spoo remain in linreg uptrends. And by Market Values, prices on balance still appear well away from their smooth valuation lines.
01 Feb '21, 14:12 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets kick off the week with Silver (+10.1%) as the big leader, speculation swirling about a "squeeze play" on the Silver field; as well, The Gold Update features Silver as its ratio with Gold comes into historical line (62.8x at this writing); too, per Friday's settle we've 3 qualifying Market Rhythm studies turning positive for Silver, all on the Daily time-frames for each of the MACD, Parabolics and Price Oscillator. In addition to Silver, above their NZ are Gold, Oil and the Spoo, whilst below same are the Bond and Eurocurrencies; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver's EDTR tracing being 201%. Jan's ISM(Mfg) Index and Dec's Construction Spending are due for the Econ Baro.
29 Jan '21, 10:40 Central Euro Time: Silver is the sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ; below same are the Bond, Swiss Franc, Yen and Spoo; volatility is moderate-to-robust. At Market Trends, Copper's linreg looks to rotate to negative within the next trading session or so, the "Baby Blues" moving sub-0%; those for the Spoo continue to fall, as do those of the other components, except for the Bond and Silver. The Gold/Silver ratio (without combing through the data) has moved down into the 60s for the first time in a very long time: the millennium's average has been mid-60s, the current read being 68.7x. 'Tis a very busy day for the Econ Baro, featuring Jan's Chi PMI, plus Dec's Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation and Q4's Employment Cost Index.
28 Jan '21, 09:45 Central Euro Time: Dollar gains continue to drive the bulk (save for the Bond) of the BEGOS Markets lower: at present, none are above their NZ, whilst below it are the Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper; already, volatility is up to a moderate pace, so we expect to see EDTR tracings again exceed 100% today. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have swiftly dropped below their +80% axis: structurally to the downside 'twould appear price is heading into the 3500 - 3200 range (currently 3720). Gold's cac vol is rolling from Feb into Apr. And the big number today for the Econ Baro is the first read on StateSide Q4 GDP, along with Dec's Leading Indicators and New Home Sales.
27 Jan '21, 10:37 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets' weak links, both trading below their NZ; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" confirmed dropping below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels, albeit more broadly, reducing energy infrastructure StateSide bodes well for the price of Oil. At Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is still some 4 points above its smooth valuation line. Also above same is the Spoo by 80 points, whilst below same are the Bond by 5 points, the Euro by 0.0260 points, and Gold by 59 points. For the Econ Baro we've Dec's Durable Orders.
26 Jan '21, 11:15 Central Euro Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are within their NZ; both the Bond and Copper are below it; volatility again is moderate. Without the S&P closing at an all-time high yesterday, our "live" P/E nonetheless is now 83.9x (vs. 80.8x at the all-time high from last Thu) meaning that incoming Q4 earnings are weak. The intra-day selling yesterday in the Spoo/S&P was clearly nervous despite price then fully recovering. 'Tis said that being awash in liquidity is driving the S&P higher but obviously such extreme Index valuation is well beyond anything we've ever seen. Jan's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
25 Jan '21, 11:07 Central Euro Time: We've a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets with both Oil and the Spoo trading above their NZ and the two EuroCurrencies below same; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update girders the Gold-positive nature of the new StateSide power structure; Gold's Market Profile shows price as volume supportive down into the upper 1840s; (price at present is "unch" from Fri's settle); by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is 45 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to a busy week that also includes the year's first FOMC Policy Decision (Wed) and an increasing pace of incoming Q4 earnings.
22 Jan '21, 12:01 Central Euro Time: The Spoo finally is taking a breather, at present -0.6% and below its NZ, as are the BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate and Oil; only the Bond is trading above its NZ; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both Copper and Oil trading in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. Per yesterday's settle, the Spoo was 47 points above its Market Magnet, not an extreme deviation, yet not unusual per recent months of maximum levels above the Magnet. The "live" P/E of the S&P is 80.8x: as Q4 Earnings Season ramps up, with 43 S&P constituents having thus far reported, only 22 (51%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago. The Econ Baro finishes its week with Dec's Existing Home Sales.
21 Jan '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Stock market euphoria continues with zero fundamental rationale (beyond the stimulus excuse), the S&P looking to extend its record high with the Spoo trading above its NZ as too is the Euro; none of the BEGOS Markets components are trading below their NZ and volatility is light at this early juncture. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have kinked back up above their +80% axis, as have those for Oil, as their respective linreg uptrends remain consistently intact. Jan's Philly Fed Index plus Dec's Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Jan '21, 11:14 Central Euro Time: Again we highlight the BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate of which each component is trading above its NZ, as too is Oil; the other markets are trading within their NZ and volatility is at best light: only Gold has (barely) traced beyond 50% of its EDTR. The Bond at this instant (168^30) is the most heavily-traded price of the past 2 weeks by its Market Profile: as well, the yield on the Bond of 1.840% continues to compare favourably to that on the S&P of 1.473%. Due for the Econ Baro is Jan's NAHB Housing Market Index. The StateSide Presidency passes from Trump to Biden, (as wrong as we were via The Gold Update about a second term for the former).
19 Jan '21, 11:10 Central Euro Time: The 2-day session continues with the Spoo (+1.1%) now joining the BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate by tracing in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. At Market Values, Oil continues to trade some 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line as has been the case most of the time since late Nov. By the same measure, the Bond appears 7 points "low", the Euro 2.5 points "low" and Gold 50 points "low"; (the Spoo is only marginally "high" by said measure, but the S&P 500 by earnings is beyond rationality, the "live" P/E at 78.1x). 3795 has become the Spoo's most commonly traded price across the past 2 weeks, (see Market Profiles).
18 Jan '21, 10:38 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate represents robust volatility to start the week: all 3 metals components have already traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, despite Copper at present being the only market outside (above) its NZ; otherwise the balance of the bunch are exhibiting just light volatility. Silver has responded to the downside since the negative Market Rhythm crossovers herein noted on 12 and 11 Jan; The Gold Update points to price's negativity being solely technical rather than fundamental. 'Tis a light week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, however the increasing pace of Q4 Earnings Seasons notably shall feature financials. StateSide physical bourses are closed for MLK Day, the broad trading session thus spanning 2 days (Mon-Tue).
15 Jan '21, 11:40 Central Euro Time: Following a lackluster Thu for the BEGOS Markets, they appear more active today with Q4 financial earnings beginning to come in and and a busy day for incoming economic metrics. Both the Bond and Gold are trading above their NZ whilst below same are the Euro, Copper and Oil; volatility is moderate. The S&P may finally be starting to crack per yesterday's "extremely overbought" designation and a "live" P/E of 80.1x. Presently 3784, the Spoo's most commonly-traded handle of the past 2 weeks is 3795 and the Market Magnet is 3761. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's NY State Empire Index and UofM Sentiment, Dec's PPI, Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and Nov's Business Inventories.
14 Jan '21, 15:23 Central Euro Time: The two EuroCurrencies are the weak links of the BEGOS Markets, both below their NZ; the only component above its NZ is Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate. The linreg trends of both EuroCurrencies have rotated to negative (see Market Trends) and 6 of the 8 components find their "Baby Blues" continuing to descend, (save for Oil and the Spoo). By Market Values, the Euro shows as some 2 points "low" whilst Oil shows as 5 points "high". The Spoo by textbook technical studies is "extremely overbought". Dec's Ex/Im Pricing is due for the Econ Baro.
13 Jan '21, 12:53 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's BEGOS Markets breather seems to have run its course as none of the 8 components at present are above their NZ whilst 4 are below it, namely the 2 EuroCurrencies plus Silver and Copper; volatility is moderate. Market Ranges notably on the rise of late are those for the metals triumvirate and the Spoo, the EDTR for the latter now up to 54 points from 43 at year-end. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" appear (in real-time) to be running out of upside puff. 44 studies now qualify for the Market Rhythms page, 16 of which are for Silver. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's CPI and Treasury Budget.
12 Jan '21, 12:29 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are getting a breather following yesterday's rout of all 8 components finishing in the red. At present above their NZ are the metals triumvirate and Oil whilst the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility runs from light for both the Bond and Spoo to robust for Copper with has traced 108% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis suggestive of still lower levels despite a respite today; as well, again several of Silver's Market Rhythm studies are triggering negative crossings.
11 Jan '21, 13:17 Central Euro Time: The Gold Update is wary of a "massive crash" for the S&P 500; (as usual, 'tis merely about "the when"); the "live" P/E for the S&P is 84.3x (really). The Spoo is beginning the week below its NZ as are all of the BEGOS Markets expect for The Bond (above its NZ) and Gold (within its NZ); volatility is again moderate-to-robust. Our Market Rhythms page has resumed its daily update: of note per Friday's close we've a number of studies turning negative for Silver. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" are rising for the Spoo; otherwise, they're dropping for the 7 other components. 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro from Wed through Fri. Q4 Earnings Season commences.
08 Jan '21, 10:37 Central Euro Time: No BEGOS Market component at present is trading above its NZ; within it are the Bond, Copper, Oil and the Spoo, whilst below it are the EuroCurrencies and the PMs, the weakest of the entire bunch being Silver -2.8%. Volatility is already moderate-to-robust with the StateSide Dec Payrolls report in the balance for the Econ Baro as are Nov's reading for Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are beginning to drop in earnest for the EuroCurrencies. And at Market Values, the Bond's reading in real-time shows as more than 7 points "low", the yield continuing to push up toward the 2% level.
07 Jan '21, 10:20 Central Euro Time: The unrest in DC has not had any lasting effect on the BEGOS Markets: with the Dollar getting the bid, the Bond and both EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ, whilst above it is Oil and the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is moderate. The "live" P/E of the S&P is beyond astonishing at 74.1x with Q4 Earnings Season commencing next week. The yield on the Bond has reached a 10-month high at 1.837%: comparably, the yield on the S&P 500 is 1.509%. Due for the Econ Baro are Dec's ISM(Svc) Index and Nov's Trade Deficit.
06 Jan '21, 09:00 Central Euro Time: With some 98% of the GA election results counted, both Dems have a razor thin lead; the BEGOS Markets are mostly within their NZ: the Bond is below same and the two EuroCurrencies above same. Volatility is moderate, the exception being the Bond having traced 192% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Trends, the real-time "Baby Blues" for the Bond have notably dropped, whilst those for the other 7 components are firming regardless of their respective levels. Dec's ADP Jobs data and Nov's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
05 Jan '21, 12:40 Central Euro Time: The Bond is trading below its NZ, whilst within same are Gold and the Spoo; above their NZ are the balance of the bunch, led by Oil +2.4%: volatility is moderate and ought turn more robust as the year's first trading week continues. Despite Oil's firm day, by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are working lower such that the uptrend may be running out of puff; those for Copper are weaker as well as they are for the Spoo. At Market Values, the Bond now shows as 4 points "low". The Econ Baro looks to Dec's ISM(Mfg) Index.
04 Jan '21, (in review) Central Euro Time: Beset with logicstical reponsibilities on the year's first trading day; clearly 'twas a robust start for the PMs, The Gold Update targeting a high of 2401 in 2021. Indeed, 2021's early hours began much as 2020 ended with money moving into every BEGOS Market, save for the Bond; however by session's end, the Bond goat a bit of a bid, and both Oil and notably the S&P sustained losses. "As goes Janaury..." The Econ Baro kicked off a relatively busy week with a slowing in Nov's Construction Spending.
31 Dec '20, 10:28 Central Euro Time: Money is draining from the BEGOS Markets in closing out the year, indeed the decade: No component is trading above its NZ, whilst below it are Silver and Copper both -0.8%, and the Euro (finally) -0.1%; volatility is mostly light. By Market Values, the Bond is some 4 points "low" and Oil some 3 points "high". At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have regained the +80% level, nixing the notion for imminently lower levels, though 'tis been one firm run for the currency. The "live" P/E of the S&P is 69.9x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 71.3x, The Econ Baro closes out 2020 with Initial Jobless Claims. Bonne Année à Tous!
30 Dec '20, 09:44 Central Euro Time: Both the Bond -0.2% and the Swiss Franc also -0.2% are trading below their NZ; above it is the Spoo +0.4%, and the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility again is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, it remains that only the Bond has a negative linreg; however for the other 7 which are positive, the "Baby Blues" for the Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and even the Spoo either are dropping or lacking puff; those for the Euro are firming for the present, but remain below their +80% level. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Chi PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
29 Dec '20, 10:34 Central Euro Time: Again we've the Bond -0.3% as the sole BEGOS Market trading below its NZ; above same are Oil +0.9% along with the Spoo +0.4% and the EuroCurrencies both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed moving below their +80% axis, suggestive of this firm uptrend coming to an end. The Euro's 2 key Market Profile supporters are at 1.2220 and 2.2190. The Spoo is furthering its way into record high territory: the S&P 500's "live" P/E is an alarmingly high 68.2x whilst the yield is 1.490% vs. that on the Bond of 1.669%.
28 Dec '20, 11:00 Central Euro Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ; only Gold is within it and the Bond -0.4% is below it; firmest of the bunch is Silver + 2.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR. The Gold Update points to price nearing the 1912 level that would flip the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long: the high thus far this session is 1904. By Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components have rising linregs, with only the Bond's in decline; by Market Values, the Bond remains some 5 points "low".
24 Dec '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets components are trading within their NZ, the only exception being Oil -0.9%; volatility expectedly is light with just Oil tracing more than 50% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both the Spoo and Copper continue to work lower as now too are those for the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss Franc's (in realtime) having provisionally dropped below their +80% axis: thus some currencies pullback after quite the up run of these past months against the Dollar appears in order. The Econ Baro is complete for the week which closes out today with early market closures. Merry Christmas to Everyone Everywhere!
23 Dec '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Save for Copper which above its NZ has again traced in excess of 100% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets seemingly are settling in for Christmas; only the Euro also is above its NZ, with the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is moderate. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis and are lower still in real-time, despite some price strength today. At Market Values, the Spoo has finally worked its way back to the smooth valuation line, although that for the Bond is 5 points "low". The Econ Baro awaits 7 incoming metrics on this, the last full day of trading, until next Mon.
22 Dec '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: The sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ is the Spoo, +0.3; below same are Silver and Copper, both -1.5%, and Oil -1.0%; volatility has backed off from yesterday's extremes, but is moderate-to-robust with both Silver and Copper tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked down to their +80% level, a confirmation below which would suggest lower prices ahead, although at present 3.5240, there appears structural support from 3.5460 down to 3.4500. For the Econ Baro we've the final read on Q3's turnaround GDP, plus Dec's Consumer Confidence and Nov's Existing Home Sales.
21 Dec '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: The COVID surge in the UK finds it isolated from travel to a variety of other countries in Europe and beyond, such catalyst pressuring the economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets: below their NZ are Oil -3.3%, the Spoo -1.9% and Copper -1.8%; the EuroCurrencies also are trading below their NZ; the Bond and Silver are above same, whilst Gold is near "unch"; however, volatility is robust across the board with every component exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Gold Update sees the 1900s nearing as the weekly parabolic Short trend is within range of flipping to Long. And TSLA's joining the S&P 500 has (as expected) rocketed the Index's "live" P/E from 45x to 69x.
18 Dec '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: At present, all 8 BEGOS Markets are within their NZ and volatility is light-to-moderate as the final full trading week of 2020 draws to a close. The S&P is at a record high, and with TSLA joining the Index come Monday, the "live" P/E shall leap from an already torrid 46.2x to in excess of 60x, beyond any record we've ever witnessed. Doubtless a significant correction must be in the offing especially should the long end of the yield curve continue to inch up: the yield on the Bond is now 1.676% but is less so for the S&P at 1.532%. The Econ Baro wraps up its down week with Nov's Leading Indicators and Q3's Current Account Balance.
17 Dec '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The sense of a "whiff of inflation" along with the Dollar Index trading sub-90 for the first time since Apr 2018 finds yields creeping higher and none of the BEGOS Markets trading below their NZ; only the Bond, Swiss Franc and Oil are within their NZ, with Silver +1.6% the firmest of the bunch. The Bond by Market Trends is the sole component with a negative linreg; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" which are sub their +80% axis are nonetheless kinking higher for the 2nd straight session. Oil's cac volume is moving from Jan to Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Dec's Philly Fed Index and Nov's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Dec '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is below its NZ, whilst above it are the EuroCurrencies and Silver +2.7%, the white metal the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; volatility ranges from light for Oil with an EDTR tracing of 38% to robust for Silver's 118% tracing. By the Market Values page, Oil continues some 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line as has been the case since 24 Nov: at present 47.60, 'tis Oil's highest level since Mar when COVID first brought on severe economic fear. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's NAHB Housing Index, Nov's Retail Sales and Oct's Business Inventories. The FOMC issues it final Policy Statement for 2020.
15 Dec '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: None of the BEGOS Markets are below their NZ; above it are the PMs, Swiss Franc and the Spoo, the latter after having given up its intra-day gains yesterday again straining to work higher even as its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) work lower. The Spoo (at present 3368, +0.6%) shows Market Profile support at 3660, the most dominantly traded handle of the past 10 sessions, and below which such support falls away: structural support (which was briefly tested last Fri) ranges from 3627 down to 3534. For the Econ Baro we've Dec's NY State Empire Index plus Nov's Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil. The FOMC begins its final two-day meeting of the year.
14 Dec '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Silver and Copper are at present inside their NZ in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets; above their NZ are the EuroCurrencies, Oil and the Spoo, whilst below it is the Bond; volatility is moderate. Per Fri's close, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed kinking below their key +80% suggestive of lower levels ahead, albeit price at present is +0.8%; by Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) 81 points "high" and by the MoneyFlow's quarterly measure the S&P itself is 200 points "high"; the Index's "live P/E is 45.4x. The Econ Baro's busy week begins tomorrow.
11 Dec '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.2% is trading above its NZ; below same for the BEGOS Markets are Copper -0.5%, the Spoo -0.7%, the Swiss Franc -0.3% and the Euro -0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with Copper again exceeding a 100% EDTR tracing as is the Spoo. The latter per Market Trends has its "Baby Blues" (in real-time) kinking below their +80% axis, confirmation of which would suggest still lower prices in the offing. Cac volume for the Spoo and EuroCurrencies is moving from Dec into Mar. The Econ Baro wraps up its week with Dec's UofM Sentiment and Nov's PPI.
10 Dec '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: 3 of the BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ: Oil +1.0%, Copper +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility ranges from light-to-moderate, save for Copper which has traced 114% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking lower, but not below the key +80% axis; again we're similarly watching same for the EuroCurrencies, Copper and Oil. Yesterday's Gold low (1828) tested the key oft-mention 1830 level, itself hoovered away in the recent run to as low as 1767 prior to price's month-to-date recovery. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's CPI and Treasury Budget.
09 Dec '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: 3 of the BEGOS Markets are trading below their NZ: Silver -1.6%, Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.3%; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are above their +80% axes for the Euro, the Swiss Franc, Copper. Oil and the Spoo, which confirms the uptrend consistency of all 5 of those components, but at the same time puts them on day-to-day notice for running out of puff; again by Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear "high". Oct's Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
08 Dec '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only the Swiss Franc +0.2% is above its NZ; below it are Copper -1.0% and the Spoo -0.3%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is mostly light. At Market Values, Oil (as has been the case since 24 Nov) still shows as some 5 points "high"; the Bond shows as 5 points "low" and the Spoo as 121 points "high". The Moneyflow page for the S&P 500 continues to cite the Index as unsupported by the flow, be it by the weekly, monthly or quarterly measure; the "live" P/E is 45.3x. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 revision for Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
07 Dec '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4% trading above its NZ, 'tis a red start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, sub-their NZ at present being the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.7% the weakest component and Oil -0.8%; the EuroCurrencies have rebounded from being below their NZ earlier in the session. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" have yet to rollover below their +80% axes for Oil, nor as well for Copper or the Spoo, but they remain vulnerable to so do. The Gold Update points to price having directionally separated from its downward slid with Dollar, albeit the latter is higher today. Oct's Consumer Credit arrives late in the session for the Econ Baro.
04 Dec '20, 12:33 Pacific Time: Late in the session we've recovered from an intentional power outage across areas of northern San Diego County over concerns of high winds/electric lines potentially leading to wildfires. The BEGOS Markets with some 90 minutes to run find the economically driven components (Copper, Oil and the Spoo) all trading above their NZ with only the Bond below its NZ. The S&P 500 is at an all-time high. By Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear as "high". Heading toward the weekend the Econ Baro shall be updated as shall all the websites daily pages. And of course we look forward to penning the 577th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Thank you for your patience.
03 Dec '20, --:-- Pacific Time: (Power outage)
02 Dec '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit more settled thus far, volatility moderate at best. Gold +0.4% is above its NZ whilst Copper -1.0% and the Euro -0.2% are below same, the balance of the bunch within their NZ. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for Oil are rolling over but still above their +80% axis, upon penetration of which would suggest lower prices in the offing; this study is high as well for the Euro, Copper and the Spoo. Our "live" P/E of the S&P is 45.7x and its MoneyFlow suggests the Index ought be 559 points lower than 'tis. Nov's ADP jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Dec '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The PMs are finally firming, indeed the metals triumvirate all above their NZ, the most so being Silver +3.6%; both EuroCurrencies also are above their NZ as is the Spoo +0.8%; only the Bond -0.2% is below its NZ; volatility is again moderate-to-robust, today with both Silver and Gold exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Nonetheless in real-time, Gold by its Market Value is 127 points below its smooth valuation line, whereas Oil and the Spoo are respectively 6 and 175 points above same. Nov's Vehicle Sales begin to roll in for the Econ Baro along with the ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending.
30 Nov '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Silver -2.3%, Oil -1.2%,Gold -0.9%, the Spoo -0.4% and the Bond -0.2% all begin the week moving below their NZ; above it are Copper +1.7%, the Euro +0.3% and the Swiss Franc +0.2%, (thus leaving no BEGOS Market at present in the NZ); volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and Silver exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Gold Update cites Gold's now bona fide correction as fundamentally "convoluted" and notably so vis-à-vis the other primary BEGOS Markets (see Gold's Market Value chart). The Econ Baro's busy week begins with Nov's Chi PMI and Oct's Pending Home Sales.
27 Nov '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' 2-day stint continues, constituents closing early at either 10:15 PT or 10:45 PT. Above their NZ at present are Copper +1.8% and the Bond +0.3%; below same are Silver -1.0% and Oil -0.8%; volume has expectedly up-shifted to moderate, the one outlier being Copper with an EDTR tracing of 142%. Gold's session remains fairly narrow with a just a combined 53% EDTR tracing across the 2 days, but with price avoiding having gone sub-1790, (currently 1810). Moreover by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 122 points below its smooth valuation line, as well as some 42 points below its Market Magnet.
26 Nov '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis Thanksgiving: thus the BEGOS Markets are in a 2-day session, which at present finds Copper +0.5%, Gold +0.4% and the Bond +0.3% all above their NZ with only Oil -0.4% below same; volatility is mostly light, save for Oil which has traced 84% of its EDTR. At Market Trends we're minding the Euro, Copper, Oil and the Spoo, the "Baby Blues" for all of those components subject to being over-extended to the upside. Gold is attempting to stabilize below the key 1830 structural support level, the 1790 "line in the sand" not tested to this point. Note the dip in the Econ Baro following yesterday's input of 9 metrics.
25 Nov '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis the final full trading day for this week and the BEGOS Markets are fairly muted: above its NZ is Oil +0.9%; below its NZ is Copper -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Values some extended levels are showing, (real-time readings): Gold is 110 points "low", Oil is 7.5 points "high" and the Spoo is 189 points "high", all vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines. Cac Volume is moving for Copper from Dec into Mar, as through the balance of the week shall be the case too for Silver, Gold and the Bond. Typical of the day before Thanksgiving, the Econ Baro takes a lot of input, this year no exception with 9 metrics due, including data on Oct's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Inflation, New Home Sales, Durable Orders, plus the first revision to Q3 GDP. As well we've the FOMC's 04/05 Nov Meeting Minutes.
24 Nov '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The PMs are the notable BEGOS Markets in the loss column, both Silver -0.6% and Gold -1.4% below their NZ; Gold's low thus far is 1804, well under the 1830 structural support level; below 1790 we'd deem as problematic, although broadly the bullish case is firmly in force. Above their NZ are Copper +1.5%, Oil +1.4%, the Spoo +0.7% and the Euro +0.3%; volatility ranges from light for the Bond with an EDTR tracing of just 34% to robust for Gold with a 102% EDTR tracing. The Spoo is still very high (+166 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro looks to Nov's Consumer Confidence.
23 Nov '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis an abbreviated trading week, starting with only the 2 PMs inside their NZ; for the balance of the BEGOS Markets, Oil +0.9%, the Spoo +0.5%, and the Eurocurrencies are all above their NZ, whilst Copper -0.7% and the Bond -0.3% are below same; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes the present "correction" as more of a "consolidation", prior ones as therein graphed across the past two having resulted in surges to higher prices. Q3 Earnings Season has been finalized: for the S&P 500, 447 constituents reported of which just 51% improved their bottom lines over Q3 of a year ago, and yet the S&P is +14% higher since then, the "live" P/E 43.4x.
20 Nov '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: 2 BEGOS Markets are above their NZ, Copper +1.5% and the Spoo +0.5%; the other 6 components are within their NZ and volatility is mostly light, the only exception being Copper having traced 106% of its EDTR. The Spoo continues its "high" stance vis-à-vis its Market Values smooth valuation line, above which price is (in real-time) +157 points; but by Market Magnets, price has returned to that measure; the Spoo's Market Profile shows 3 dominant apices: 3608, 3557 and 3500. This is the final day of Q3 Earnings Season, which given COVID has been severely worse than 2019's Q3.
19 Nov '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond is the only BEGOS Market in the black but is inside of its NZ at that; the PMs are below same with Silver -1.4% and Gold -0.4%; volatility is still comparatively light-to-moderate relative to the recent rises in EDTRs (see Market Ranges). With Gold having (by Market Trends) resumed its negative linreg track, we remain mindful of 1830 as a key structural support price, (this session's low so far is 1853). Despite the S&P's -1.2% drop yesterday, the Spoo (in real-time) is above 144 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro closes out its week today, incoming metrics including Nov's Philly Fed Index, plus Oct's Existing Homes Dales and Leading Indicators.
18 Nov '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The PMs are the 2 BEGOS Markets trading below their NZ, Silver -1.1% and Gold -0.8%; for the latter, this session's low to this point is 1860: the 09 Nov low was 1848 and as noted in various Gold Updates a key level to hold is 1830. Above their NZ are Oil +1.9% and the Spoo +0.4% and volatility is again light-to-moderate. The Spoo continues to dwell at lofty levels by Market Values, +207 points "high" (in real-time). The S&P's Moneyflow is underperforming the Index itself by the weekly, monthly and quarterly measures. Oil's cac volume has moved from Dec into Jan. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's Housing Starts/Permits.
17 Nov '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies both +0.2% are above their NZ with the Spoo -0.6% below same; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are at present within their NZ and volatility after having picked up yesterday is now just light-to-moderate. Even as 'tis lower, the Spoo (in real-time) is 198 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and finished yesterday's session 114 points above its Market Magnet. Into this final week of Q3 Earnings Season, our "live" P/E of the S&P is 45.0x. The Econ Baro looks to 8 incoming metrics today including Nov's NAHB Housing Index, Oct's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Sep's Business Inventories.
16 Nov '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Following BEGOS Markets' volatility having cooled a bit last week, 'tis ramping up again with both Copper +1.9% (above its NZ) and Gold -1.1% (below its NZ) trading in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. Also above their NZ are Oil +3.7% and the Spoo +1.2%, whilst below too are Silver -1.5%, and the Bond -0.4%. The Gold Update points to BEGOS component prices nearly being where they were weeks prior to the StateSide election. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with Nov's NY State Empire Index.
13 Nov '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: Oil -1.1% is below its NZ whilst Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.5% are above their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are inside of their NZ and volatility is mostly light across the board: indeed the only EDTR tracing exceeding 50% is that by Copper at just 68%. At Market Trends the linregs remain mixed, whilst readings for the Spoo are still "high" by Market Values but a bit less so by Market Magnets as price has become more consolidative following Mon's rocket shot-'n-plop. The Econ Baro completes its light week with Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey and Oct's PPI.
12 Nov '20, 04:45 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo -0.5% is below its NZ; above it are the Bond +0.3% and the EuroCurrencies, both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate as the BEGOS Markets continue to quiet a bit from their post-StateSide election ranginess. Specific to the Spoo, its Market Value measure remains "high" above the smooth valuation line by (in real-time) 160 points, whilst price also is still "high" by its 144-points distance above the Market Magnet; too by historical standards, the "live" P/E of the S&P continues as very extreme at 44.1x. The Econ Baro in a comparatively limited week of data looks to Oct's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 Nov '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil +1.5% and the Spoo +0.6% are above their NZ whilst the EuroCurrencies are below same; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their NZ and volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Values, the Euro is right on its valuation line (no extreme), where as most extreme of the 5 primary markets is the Spoo, 177 points (in real-time) "high". After all the recent volatility, by Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components are nonetheless sporting nearly flat 21-day linregs (save for the Bond's downtrend) meaning prices are not too far from where they stood one month ago.
10 Nov '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's very volatile session, the BEGOS Markets are far more settled at present: Oil +2.2% and Gold +0.8% are above their NZ, whilst the Bond -0.3% and the Swiss Franc -0.2% are below their NZ; volatility is moderate across the board within the context that by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs have increased of late. Yesterday, Gold high-to-low engulfed the entire prior 7 weeks weeks of trading range. The Gold Update points to price as appearing "safe" in the 1900s, such notion being hoovered yesterday: Gold's most dominant Market Profile apices are now 1879, 1908 and 1949. For the Spoo, the nearest dominant Market Profile apex is 3505.
09 Nov '20, 04:29 Pacific Time: We've record highs for the Spoo +3.1% as the BEGOS Markets make a raucous start to the week. Also well above their NZ are Oil +8.3% (and back atop 40) and Copper +1.6%. Below their NZ are Silver -3.5%, Gold -2.4%, the Bond -1.5% and the Swiss Franc -0.2%; (only the Euro is within its NZ). Volatility is mostly robust. Entering the session the Spoo was already well above its Market Magnet by 146 points, an extreme (should today's move be maintained) becoming even more so. With 2 weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, the 421 S&P 500 reported entities find 84% having beaten estimates, but just 50% having improved their bottom lines from a year ago.
06 Nov '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: Silver and Copper, both +1.5%, along with the EuroCurrencies are trading above their NZ; weakest below it is Oil -2.5% and the Spoo -0.9%; volatility remains moderate-to-robust. With the Dollar's somewhat sharp selloff, the EuroCurrencies and PMs appear at a high extreme by their Market Magnets. And by Market Trends, that for Gold (in real-time) has rotated to positive, albeit in this session price has pretty much been confined within its NZ. A bevy of data concludes the week for the Econ Baro, featuring Oct's Payrolls data, plus Sep's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
05 Nov '20, 04:38 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility remains expectedly moderate-to-robust with 4 of the 8 components tracing beyond 100% of their EDTRs; Silver +3.1% leads 6 of the bunch above their NZ, followed by the Spoo +1.6%; both Oil and Copper are inside of their NZ, and none are below it. The Dollar Index (not a BEGOS component) is noticeably -0.7%, a fairly sizable intra-day move for the Buck, the PMs and EuroCurrencies clearly benefitting. The Econ Baro gets its first look at Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs; the FOMC issues its penultimate policy statement for the year; and the Presidential election result has yet to be determined.
04 Nov '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Similar to Election Day in 2016, the BEGOS Markets garnered extreme volatility overnight: Oil +1.1% and above its NZ is the only component not tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR; the Bond +1.4% and also aboves its NZ has the vastest EDTR tracing at 376%, indeed engulfing its entire trading range of the past 4 sessions; the Spoo +0.5% is also above its NZ; below same are the metals triumvirate, Silver and Copper both -1.2%, and the Euro -0.2%; thus only the Swiss Franc is at present inside its NZ. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus Sep's Trade Deficit. Reps shall still have the Senate; Dems shall still have the house; and the Presidency remains in the balance.
03 Nov '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.3% is trading beneath its NZ; above it are Oil +2.9%, the Spoo +1.1%, Silver +0.8% and the 2 Eurocurrencies both +0.5%; not surprisingly given 'tis StateSide Election Day, volatility is moderate-to-robust, EDTR tracings exceeding 100% so far for both the Euro and Oil, ("volatility" obviously being the BEGOS Markets' watchword through here). Despite the session's mostly bullish stance, by Market Trends, only the Swiss Franc and Copper have positive 21-day linregs, the "Baby Blues" for those 2 nonetheless in decline. Sep's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
02 Nov '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.0% is trading above its NZ, but has been below it as well, the BEGOS Market component leading the EDTR tracings at 125%; Oil -2.6 is below its NZ with an 105% EDTR tracing; both PMs are above the NZ, Gold +0.8% and Silver the overall leader of the bunch +1.8%. By Market Values, Oil is nearly 5 full points below its smooth valuation line and better than 3 full points below its Market Magnet. The Gold Update punctuates its recent theme that the StateSide presidential incumbent shall be re-elected, else Gold would be far higher and the S&P far lower. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, plus Sep's Construction Spending.
30 Oct '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have steadied themselves towards closing out a comparatively volatile week. Silver +1.0% and Gold +0.4% are the components above their neutral zone, the balance of the bunch within same. The week's selloff in the S&P 500 has brought the "live" P/E down from the 50s to 47.3x, obviously still extremely high by historical measures. 'Tis a busy culmination of the week for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including Oct's Chi PMI, Sep's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's-favoured Core PCE, plus Q3's Employment Cost Index.
29 Oct '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Since noting on 22 Oct the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (by Market Trends) having fallen below their +80% level, per 21 Oct's settle price has dropped a net -4.6%; as of yesterday's close, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues"confirmed falling below their +80% level. No BEGOS Market at present is above today's NZ; most below it is Oil -3.5%, followed by Silver -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Oil having traced 137% of its EDTR. The highly-anticipated first peek at Q3 GDP arrives for the Econ Baro, along with Sep's Pending Home Sales.
28 Oct '20, 04:10 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.2% is trading above its NZ; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are trading below their NZ, led by Oil -2.8%, plus Silver and the Spoo both -1.0%; volatility is moderate. By Market Values, no one primary component is overly distant from its smooth valuation line, however by Market Trends, those with positive linregs are seeing them rotating toward negative, (the Bond still being the only one of the bunch actually in a downtrend, but with its "Baby Blues" on the rise). About 1/3 of the S&P 500 companies have reported their Q3 earnings: 81% have exceeded estimates, whereas just 48% have bettered their bottom lines over Q3 of a year ago.
27 Oct '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil +0.8%, plus Copper and the Spoo both +0.4%, are above their NZ; only the Swiss Franc -0.2% is below its NZ, the balance of the bunch being therein; volatility is light-to-moderate. By the Market Ranges page, EDTRs have been on the decline across all the BEGOS Markets in recent weeks. By Market Trends, the Bond is the only component with a negative linreg trend, but 'tis also the only market whose "Baby Blues" have started to curl up; the others all in descent. Oct's Consumer Confidence and Sep's Durable Orders come into the Econ Baro.
26 Oct '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: To begin the BEGOS Markets' week, just the Bond +0.4% is above its NZ and only Gold is within same; the balance of the bunch all below their NZ are lead by Oil -1.7%, Silver -1.2%, and the Spoo -0.8%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites re-election as being priced into both Gold and the S&P, the former by now not having risen, but the latter subject to selling regardless of election outcomes. As well by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are in decline for both the PMs and the Spoo as the linreg uptrends lose consistency. Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's New Home Sales.
23 Oct '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.5% is trading below its neutral zone ("NZ") whilst above them are Gold +0.4% and the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc +0.3% and the Euro +0.2%; the other BEGOS Markets are at present inside of their respective NZs; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the 2 Eurocurrencies both exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are (in real-time) kinking over to the downside without having reached their +80% levels: however, these may be mere bumps in the road as the uptrends themselves still appear fairly consistent.
22 Oct '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: 5 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are trading below their neutral zones, the weakest being Copper -1.0%; above such zones are Oil +0.9% followed by the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) yesterday confirmed falling below their key +80% axis: typically this bodes for lower levels ahead: this session's low thus far of 3403 has already tested structural support at 3421 (price at present 3426), the next supporter in line being 3388. The Econ Baro wraps up a thin week of reports to include Sep's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales.
21 Oct '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets on balance are higher, with the Euro Currencies, led by the Swiss Franc +0.4%, and the metals triumvirate, led by Silver +1.6%, having all their components above their respective neutral zones. Oil -0.6% and the Bond -0.2% are below their neutral zones; volatility is moderate-to-robust. By our Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" are accelerating higher notably for the currencies and the metals; as well, the currencies are at 10-day highs as is Copper. Late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome of regional economic activity across the U.S.
20 Oct '20, 04:38 Pacific Time: As well with respect to the "neutral zone", it helps to differentiate as to a BEGOS Market's percentage change being material or not: i.e. at present, Oil is +0.5%, but that is not enough to get it above it's neutral zone, whereas the Bond is -0.2%, enough to put it below its neutral zone. Along with Oil, only Gold is also within said zone, the balance of the bunch above it respectively, led by Copper +1.3% and Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, save for the Bond, the 7 other components' 21-day linreg trends are now positive, (as has been that for the Spoo for some 3 weeks). Sep's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
19 Oct '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: With respect to the "neutral zone" of which we've been lately mentioning for each of the BEGOS Markets is now defined on their respective pages; 'tis essentially that daily defined area within which price appears directionally undecided. At present, only Oil lies therein, the Bond -0.4% is below its neutral zone, and above it are the balance of the bunch, led by Silver +2.6%, Copper +0.8%, and the Gold and the Spoo both +0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the EuroCurrencies tracing beyond 100% of the EDTRs. The Gold Update looks to as yet a lack of any real positioning nor fear ahead of the StateSide elections (03 Nov). The Econ Baro begins a light flow of incoming data for the week with Oct's NAHB Housing Index.
16 Oct '20, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Euro +0.2% is trading above its neutral zone; below it are Oil -0.8% and Copper -0.5%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their neutral zones; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Spoo still is "high" by Market Values, some 128 points in real-time, and of course, the S&P 500 remains really high given its "live" P/E of 57.8x. The trend thus far in the young Q3 Earnings Season is for better than 80% of companies "beating estimates", but for less than 40% bettering Q3 of a year ago. The Econ Baro finishes its busy week with Oct's UofM Sentiment, Sep's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Aug's Business Inventories.
15 Oct '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.4% is above its neutral zone; those BEGOS Markets below same are Oil -2.6%, Silver -1.6%, the Spoo -1.0%, Gold -0.4% and the Euro -0.3%; volatility is moderate. By Market Magnets there are no overt price extremes; by Market Values, the Spoo is working off its excess, the real-tine reading now +95 points "high" ('twas +148 yesterday and +175 on Tue); the Spoo's low trade this session is 3434: 3428 is Market Profile support, with 3395 as the most dominant underlying level. Oil's cac volume is moving from Nov into Dec. Oct's NY State Empire Index and Philly Fed Index come into the Econ Baro, along with Sep's Ex/Im Pricing (and the still elusive Treasury Budget).
14 Oct '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: No BEGOS Market at present is trading below its neutral zone; above them are Copper +0.6%, Gold +0.5%, and the Bond +0.2%; volatility remains moderate. Despite yesterday's move lower, the Spoo by Market Values is still "high" (148 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line; the other four primary components (Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil) are quite near to their respective smooth lines. At Market Profiles, save for the 2 PMs, the other 6 components are positioned above the center of their price-by-volume bars. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's PPI (and again for the Treasury Budget as was listed for yesterday).
13 Oct '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Mild Dollar-strength is enough to push the EuroCurrencies below their neutral zone, the Euro and Swiss Franc both -0.2%; the only BEGOS Market component above its neutral zone is Oil +1.7%; volatility is again moderate. The 21-day linreg trends (at Market Trends) for the PMs remain negative, however less so as their "Baby Blues" are climbing; the only two components with such trends as positive are Oil and the Spoo. The latter's rise in recent days finds price by Market Values some 175 points (in real-time) above the smooth valuation line, the dizzyingly-high "live" P/E itself at 59.8x. Sep's CPI and Treasury Budget come into the Econ Baro.
12 Oct '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin their week with Oil -1.1%, Gold -0.5% and the EuroCurrencies, all below their neutral zone, in which are the balance of bunch (with only the Yen [not an official BEGOS component] above its neutral zone). Session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the PMs' resilience of the past two weeks, within the context of their near- and medium-term trends still being down. The Spoo (+12 points at 3489) could pull the S&P 500 over the 3500 level 'round today's open; the S&P's all-time high is 3588 (02 Sep). 17 metrics are due for the Econ Baro this week.
09 Oct '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Only Oil -1.0% is trading below its neutral zone; the balance of the BEGOS Markets (save for the minimally-up Spoo) are above their respective neutral zones, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +2.2%, Gold +1.2% and Copper +1.0%; volatility runs from light for the Spoo with just a 21% EDTR tracing to robust for the Swiss Franc with a 102% EDTR tracing; a glance at the Market Ranges page shows that, with the exception of Copper and Oil, EDTRs have been narrowing of late in what is normally expected as a more rangy time of the trading year. The Econ Baro completes its quiet week with Aug's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Oct '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Both Oil +1.4% and the Bond +0.3% are trading above their session's respective neutral zones whilst Copper -0.5% and the Swiss Franc -0.1% are below their own neutral zones. Volatility remains light relative vis-à-vis the EDTRs at Market Ranges. The Spoo's 21-day linreg trend has rotated to positive: moreover, the Spoo's daily Price Oscillator has turned positive after having been negative since 15 Sep. Nearest Market Profile support for the Spoo (presently 3422) shows at 3396, 3384, and 3371. However, the S&P 500's "live" P/E at 58.0x remains extreme by any rational measure as Q3 earnings unfold: mind as denoted on our Earnings Season page comparisons to Q3 of a year ago rather than "estimates beaten".
07 Oct '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate and the Spoo +1.0% are trading above their respective neutral zones (see yesterday's comment), the firmest being Silver +2.3% and Copper +1.2%; below its neutral zone is the Bond -0.2%; however, volatility again is light. By Market Trends, all components but Oil are in 21-day linreg downtrends. At Market Rhythms, 57 combinations of market studies at present qualify for the list. And by both Market Values and Market Magnets, neither show any component in near-term extremes at present. Late in the session for the Econ Baro we've Aug's Consumer Credit. The Fed's 15/16 Sep Meeting Minutes also come due.
06 Oct '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% and the Bond +0.2% are the only two BEGOS Markets at present outside of what we may refer to as their "neutral zone" specific to the current session; the "neutral zone" is that area cited on each market's page between the "guesstimated low if an up day" and "guesstimated high if a down day"; this gives us a better idea at these writings in pointing to what markets have some material, directional bias vs. just their % change alone. Accordingly, volatility to this point today is light. Due for the Econ Baro is Aug's Trade Deficit. Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.
05 Oct '20, 04:10 Pacific Time: Mixed remains the motif of the BEGOS Markets, the new week beginning with Oil +4.4%, Silver +0.9% and both the Swiss Franc and Spoo +0.5%; on the downside we've Copper -0.4%, the Bond -0.3%, and Gold marginally lower; volatility is mostly moderate; (Oil has traced 100% of its EDTR). The Gold Update reminds us whilst Gold's broad-term is well up, that both the medium-term and near-term trends remain down; again Gold's seasonal Sep-Nov stint throughout this decade has basically been negative. The Econ Baro, after a week of 20 incoming metrics, has just 5 for this week, starting today with Sep's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 Oct '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Again we've the BEGOS Markets in a mixed state: to the upside, both Copper and Silver are +0.5% followed by the Bond +0.2%; weakest is Oil -3.8% followed by the Spoo -1.4% and then the Euro -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both Oil and the Spoo tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), 'tis said over POTUS contracting COVID, (albeit Gold is just +0.1%). Save for Oil which has been selling off through this week, the 7 other BEGOS components all are trading near the center of their respective 10-day Market Profiles. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's Job's Data and Vehicle Sales, plus Aug's Factory Orders.
01 Oct '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin Q4 on a mixed basis: to the upside we've Silver +1.6%, the Spoo +1.3%, and Gold +0.5%; the EuroCurrencies, too, are marginally higher; to the downside we've Oil -0.5%, Copper -0.3% and the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate. By Market Values we've no extreme readings; however by earnings, the "live" P/E of the S&P 500 remains dramatically high at 57.1x (yield 1.705%) in this still essentially zero-interest rate environment. Data coming into the Econ Baro includes Sep's ISM(Mfg) Index, plus Aug's Construction Spending, Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Index.
30 Sep '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Copper is "unch" and the balance of the BEGOS bunch are in the red, weakest being Silver -2.0%, followed by Gold -0.6% and then Oil and the Spoo both -0.4%; volatility is moderate. Still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) did confirm moving above their -80% axis: again however, price (3317) is within the noted 3296-3420 zone of structural resistance. As well by Market Trends, now 'tis only the Bond in a 21-day linreg uptrend. The Econ Baro picks up its busy week pace with Sep's ADP Employment data and Chi PMI, Aug's Pending Home Sales, and the final revision to Q2 GDP.
29 Sep '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower with Copper -1.0%, Oil -0.6% and the Spoo just into the red. Firmest is Silver +1.0%, followed by Gold and the Euro both +0.4% and then the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate as the Econ Baro kicks off its own busy week of 20 scheduled incoming metrics starting with Sep's Consumer Confidence. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are in real-time moving above their -80% axis, which if confirmed at the close suggests still higher levels ahead, albeit into the 3293-3420 resistance zone; as well by Market Profiles the Spoo's largest overhead resistor is 3404, (price at present 3349).
28 Sep '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.3% (+44 points) is flying high, leading the BEGOS Markets into the new week, followed by Oil +0.8% and then Silver + 0.5%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the firm selling of late in the PMs, again pointing to 1830 as a key foothold for Gold to hold, (session's low 1851 matches that of last Thu). At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking up, their nonetheless being below the -80% axis: presently 3329, there is structural resistance from 3296-3420. By Market Values, the Spoo is only just nearing its smooth valuation line after having been 119 points below it last Thu.
25 Sep '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: For the week's finale we've at present only the Bond +0.2% in the black, the red side side leader again being Silver -2.1%, followed by Oil -0.9%, the Spoo -0.8%, Gold -0.7%, and then Copper -0.6%; volatility is moderate. At Market Ranges, now only Copper sports a 21-day linreg uptrend, itself at best feeble. The Dollar Index has reached a 9-week high. At Market Values, real-time readings find both Gold 74 points and the Spoo 144 points below their respective smooth valuation lines, notwithstanding for the latter the S&P 500's "live" P/E/ being 55.1x. The Econ Baro ends its week with Aug's Durable Orders.
24 Sep '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Just Oil +0.9% and the Bond +0.1% are on the black side of the BEGOS Markets' ledger; leading on the red side is Silver -2.5% -- the Gold/Silver ratio shooting higher to 83.3x -- followed by light losses amongst the balance of the bunch; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo, again with an EDTR tracing to this point of the session of 37%, to robust for Gold as it traces 103% of its EDTR. Silver's selloff finds it better than 3 whole points below its Market Magnet, an extremely low reading, essentially exceeded only during the white metal's plunge in 2011 following price's all-time high of 49.82. Aug's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Sep '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Both Oil and the Spoo are +0.4%; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver -3.2% -- the Gold/Silver ratio having topped 80x this session -- plus Copper -1.0% and Gold -0.4%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with an EDTR tracing of 37% to robust for the PMs, Gold tracing 100% of its EDTR and Silver 122% of same. The last 2 sessions have seen the Dollar Index up into the 94s for the first time since 27 July; the Euro has dipped its toe sub-1.17 this session. By Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are accelerating lower (in real-time) for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo.
22 Sep '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets vis-à-vis yesterday have morphed into a more reserved, mixed mode. Firmest is Oil +0.7%, followed by Copper +0.6% and then the Spoo +0.2%; weakest is Silver -1.7%, followed Gold -0.4% and then the Euro -0.3%; volatility is moderate, save for only Silver having traced excess of 100% of its EDTR. The Gold/Silver ratio, which finished at 72.6x on Fri, has ballooned to 78.3x on the white metal's -8.0% net change yesterday. In contrast to last Fri's comment, at Market Trends we've now only Copper in a 21-day linreg uptrend, the balance of the bunch trending down. The Econ Baro begins a very light week with Aug's Existing Home Sales.
21 Sep '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: 'Tis a tough start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower expect for the Bond +0.6%; the bearish bent in The Gold Update for both the yellow metal and the stock market is bearing out with Gold -1.0% and the Spoo -1.6%; weakest is Silver -1.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, 4 of the 8 components tracing better than 100% of their EDTRs. As noted numerous times via recent Gold Updates, should the 1920s area fall away, we see no sound structural support until 1830. Whilst 'tis a quiet week for the Econ Baro, we don't expect same for the markets; (and after all, 'tis September).
18 Sep '20, 04:37 Pacific Time: After recent days' runs of being mostly one-sided either way, the BEGOS Markets are at present mixed and lightly net changed: Gold is firmest +0.4% and Oil is weakest -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the 21-day linregs for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper are now positive, whilst those for the Bond, Oil and the Spoo are negative. By Market Values, no one component is excessively away from its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with Sep's UofM Sentiment Survey, Aug's Leading Indicators, and Q2's Current Account.
17 Sep '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: 'Tis quite red for the BEGOS Markets this session with just the Bond +0.4% in the black. Weakest is Silver -1.5%, followed by the Spoo -1.3% and then Copper -1.0%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with the Fed out of the way and Sep more than well under way. The Spoo (at present 3338) in this session has been as low as 3310, its lowest level being 3296 since its all-time high 3587 on 02 Sep. By Market Values, the Spoo is right on its smooth valuation line, but the SPX monetary outflow continues to be worse than the recent weakness in the Index; (and then there's the "live" P/E of 57.8x). Oil's cac volume is moving from Oct into Nov. Today for the Econ Baro we've Sep's Philly Fed Index and Aug's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Sep '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, the BEGOS Markets are higher across the board, led by Oil +2.0%, Silver +0.8%, and then both Gold and the Spoo +0.6%; save for the Bond with just a 24% EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges), volatility is moderate. Per the S&P's Moneyflow page we show a material net outflow since the beginning of Sep, even though the Index itself is but -2.8% month-to-day; the outflow most notably appears on the page's 21-day chart (center graphic). The Econ Baro looks to Sep's NAHB Housing Index, Aug's Retail Sales, and Jul's Business Inventories.
15 Sep '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Similar to yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are higher, this time including Oil +1.7% as the upside leader, with only the Bond -0.1% in the red. Higher, too, are Silver +1.4%, the Spoo +0.8% and Gold +0.7%; volatility is mostly moderate. But by Market Trends, only Silver and Copper are in 21-day linreg trends which are positive, the other 6 components showing theirs as negative: 'twas just mid-summer that all 8 of the bunch were in uptrends. Today's Econ Baro metrics are Sep's NY State Empire Index along with Aug's Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil.
14 Sep '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin a busy week mostly in the black with only Oil -0.5% and the Bond -0.1% in the red. To the upside we've the Spoo +1.1% and Silver +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having gone to sleep even as this normally markets-hectic time of the year unfolds: price appears to be consolidating however near-term technicals are turning negative: again, should price slip below the lower 1900s, there really is no notable foothold structure until 1830. Highlighting this week are 16 incoming Econ Baro metrics plus the FOMC's policy statement come Wed.
11 Sep '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher toward wrapping up (not unexpectedly) a rather hectic week, although the PMs were somewhat subdued throughout: only the Bond -0.2% is in the red, with the PMs "unch". To the upside is Copper +2.2%, followed by Oil +0.9% and then the Spoo +0.8%. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Sep into Dec, and we expect the same for the Spoo as the session further unfolds; (note the Dec Spoo is priced 10 points below that for Sep). At Markets Trends, the "Baby Blues" are dropping for every component except those for the Bond. The Econ Baro finishes the week with Aug's CPI and Treasury Budget.
10 Sep '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets are lower, Copper -1.3%, Oil -0.9% and the Spoo -0.3%. The balance of the bunch are all higher, led by Silver +0.7%, the Swiss Franc +0.4% and the Euro +0.3%: the latter ought be in play given the ECB's monetary decision within the hour, followed by Lagarde come 14:30 CET. By Market Values, the Euro is (in real-time) right on its valuation line and its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are (in real-time) right down upon the 0% axis line, meaning the 21-day linreg trend is now flat. The Econ Baro looks to 1st-time Jobless Claims stabilizing sub-1M, Aug's PPI and Jul's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Sep '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed, although volatility is robust for both the Spoo (+0.6%) with an EDTR tracing of 116% as well as for Oil (+1.2%), its like tracing at 100%. The balance of the bunch are changed either way by 0.5% or less. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are in accelerative fall for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Oil and the Spoo; those for Copper appear (in real-time) to have just topped. Oil's 6.8% fall yesterday finds it today some 5 points below its smooth valuation line (at Market Values). Yesterday's bullish Consumer Credit report for Jul pushed the Econ Baro to its highest oscillative reach since 06 Dec 2018.
08 Sep '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, volatility expectedly increasing: Oil (-4.7%), the Spoo (-0.5%) and the Swiss Franc (-0.4%) have all exceeded 100% tracings of their respective EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Only the Bond +0.4% is in the black, the PMs seeing Silver -1.3% and Gold -1.0%. Moving deeper into Sep, (the stock market's so-called "worst month of the year"), we've the "live" P/E of the S&P at 57.7x with the Spoo's "Baby Blues" as noted yesterday having crossed below their +80% axis. The Econ Baro starts its week late in the session with Jul's Consumer Credit.
07 Sep '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are shut for Labor Day, however the BEGOS Markets are into their 2-day (Mon-Tue) session, all of the components (save for the Bond +0.1%) in the red. Weakest is Oil -0.9%, followed by all three members of the metals triumvirate -0.3% each. Volatility is light-to-moderate. We've 2 confirmed Spoo negatives: by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are breaking down, indeed below their key +80% axis, suggestive of still lower price levels; and the popular MACD on the daily bars has crossed downward, such study being one of 58 qualifying at present on the Market Rhythms page. The Gold Update debunks the conventional wisdom of Sep-Nov being Gold-positive.
04 Sep '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Spoo +0.1% has steadied following yesterday's -3.5% S&P 500 loss; indeed as was the case 'round this time both Mon and Tue, only the Bond -0.1% and Swiss Franc also -0.1% are in the red; firmest is Oil +1.0%, followed by Silver +0.8% and then Copper +0.7%; volatility ranges from light for both the Swiss Franc and Gold with EDTR tracings of less than 40% to robust for the Spoo's 117% tracing. By Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, however not so much as to drop below the key +80% level (at present +85%, down from +90% at yesterday's settle). Aug's Payrolls come into the Econ Baro ahead of the StateSide 3-day weekend, (stocks being closed Mon, but Globex trading opening per usual on Sun with a 5-hr. halt during Mon).
03 Sep '20, 04:47 Pacific Time: The "live" P/E of the S&P now stands at 62.0x. And 'tis as if 'tis is affecting the entire BEGOS Markets spectrum: recall as the Dollar lost strength across the last several months there was a period of time when all 8 BEGOS components were in 21-day linreg uptrends? Whilst now is not necessarily the beginning of the whole bunch turning south, nonetheless all 8 markets today are down, the Spoo itself -0.4%. Weakest is Oil -2.8%, followed by Copper -1.6%, and then Silver -1.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Mind the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. For the Econ Baro come Jobless Claims 'round the 1M level, Aug's ISM(Svc) Index, Jul's Trade Deficit, and Q2's revision to Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
02 Sep '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: Red returns to the BEGOS Markets, the exceptions being the Spoo +0.6% and Copper +0.3%; weakest is Silver -1.6%, followed by the Euro -0.4% and then Gold -0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday's noting of the EuroCurrencies' "Baby Blues" having curtailed their falling finds them (in real-time) weakening again: the Euro's (at present 1.1865) dominant underlying 10-Day Market Profile support price is 1.1820 whist the Swiss Franc (at present 1.0982) has already slipped below its dominant Profile support price of 1.1010. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's ADP Employment data and Vehicle Sales, plus Jul's Factory Orders. Later in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
01 Sep '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Again per this time yesterday we've only the the Bond -0.3% and Swiss Franc -0.1% in the red; firmest is the metals triumvirate with Silver +2.7% and Gold +1.2%, followed by Copper +0.6%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both EuroCurrencies have curbed their respective descents without the underlying linreg trends having turned negative, the Euro today topping 1.20 for the 1st time since May 2018; the currency is in sync with it smooth Market Values line and not excessively above its Market Magnet. Today's Econ Baro takes in Aug's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jul's Construction Spending.
31 Aug '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mostly higher: only the Bond -0.3% and barely so the Swiss Franc are in the red; best to the upside is Silver +1.4%, followed by Oil +1.2% and then Copper +0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update highlights 2 key technical studies turning negative: the 21-day linreg trend and weekly Parabolic now Short after a Long run of 22 weeks. That stated, both PMs' 10-day Market Profiles are displaying rather "bulbous" underlying support. Stocks are not our primary focus, however today marks the 4-for-1 split for AAPL, which of its own accord makes up 7% of the entire S&P 500's capitalization weighting; (add in MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOG and those Top 5 are 23% of the Index). And of course, 'tis always wise to mind our S&P Valuation and Rankings page, (the "live" P/E at present 60.2x).
28 Aug '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: In a reverse of this time yesterday, save for the Bond -0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the black with the metals triumvirate leading the way: firmest is Silver +1.9% followed by Gold +1.6% and then Copper +1.1%. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, the EuroCurrencies (and whilst not as yet a BEGOS component, certainly so the Yen) tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, (the Yen indeed 240% as Abe steps down). The non-stop rise (and notably strong monetary inflow) of the S&P finds the Spoo by Market Values some 177 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line as well as some 77 points above its Market Magnet. A bevy of metrics for the Econ Baro includes Aug's Chi PMI, plus Jul's Personal Income/Spending, and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Index.
27 Aug '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, but not severely so, ahead of Chair Powell's "virtual" annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium address. Weakest is the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.4%, followed by Gold -0.9% and then Copper -0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is at a record high 61.0x. Cac volume into week's end is rolling from Sep into Dec for Copper, Silver and the Bond. The Econ Baro looks to another 1M 1st-time Jobless Claims, Jul's Pending Home Sales, and the 2nd look at Q2 GDP, (the 1st peek having been -32.9% annualized).
26 Aug '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Only Copper +0.6% is higher amongst the BEGOS Markets; however, none worse to the downside are Gold and Oil, both -0.6%, followed by silver -0.5% and then the Bond -0.4%; volatility is mostly light, and by Market Ranges , those components with EDTRs rising of late are seeing them curtail their ascents. By the PMs' Market Profiles, trading resistance shows for Gold at 1941 (at present 1925) and for Silver at 26.75 (at present 26.52), with scant underlying support by that study in both cases. Jul's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
25 Aug '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond -0.5% is weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the PMs with Silver -0.3% and Gold -0.2%; to the upside we've Oil +0.8%, the Spoo +0.4%, and then the EuroCurrencies both +0.3%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, Gold has rotated into a 21-day linreg downtrend, the only other component as such being the Bond; however, the "Baby Blues" for the EuroCurrencies and Silver are swiftly falling. The "live" P/E of the S&P is nearing 60x (59.3x at present). The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Consumer Confidence and Jul's New Home Sales.
24 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Just barely the Bond -0.1% is lower in the BEGOS Markets beginning the week; to the upside we've both Oil and Copper +0.9% followed by the Spoo +0.8% and then Gold +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price's Profile positioning (per Fri's settle at 1947) as a key area to hold, the first structural foothold below that being 1830; for 4 straight weeks Gold has traced ranges exceeding 100 points; price presently is 1958. Q2 Earnings Season has formally finished: for the 1,744 reports collected, only 36% improved, making it the worst earnings period since Q2 2009; and with the Spoo pointing to a record high open today, our "live" P/E for the S&P is now a whopping 58.1x.
21 Aug '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower with just the Bond +0.2%; weakest is Copper -1.7%, followed by Silver -1.2%, Oil -1.0% and Gold -0.8%; volatility is moderate, the only outlier be the Euro's 108% EDTR tracing. Gold, despite its recent volatility, is by Market Values as near to its smooth valuation line as 'tis been since the start of July; the same study for the Spoo find it 75 points "high". The Econ Baro rounds out the week with Jul's Existing Home Sales; and what has been a dismal Q2 Earnings Season -- not by "beating estimates", rather by money made -- draws to a close.
20 Aug '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the upside leader being Silver +0.9% followed by the Bond and Swiss Franc both +0.4%; on the downside we've Copper -1.1% and then Oil -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate. Copper's trading above 3 yesterday was the 1st such time in better than 2 years: we'd been looking for a drop from the mid-2.90s to 2.71 given the cascade by red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), price getting down to as far as 2.77 a week ago before turning back up. Gold is far quieter this session following its very volatile bouncing from 2089 down to 1874, then up to 2025 and then yesterday down to 1934. The Econ Baro looks to another 1st-time Jobless Claims reading just either side of 1M, along with Aug's Philly Fed Index and Jul's Leading Indicators.
19 Aug '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the PMs are lower with Silver -1.0% and Gold -0.7%; Copper +1.0% leads the BEGOS Markets followed by modest gains for the balance of the bunch; volatility is mostly light, again in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have increased for several of the components. Both the S&P 500 and Spoo closed yesterday at all-time highs, albeit the latter has yet to breach the 3398 intra-day high of 20 Feb, (3394 being the high so far in this session). The weak Q2 Earnings Season (in its final week) in concert with the Index's rise has our "live" S&P P/E up at 55.1x. The FOMC's 28/29 Jul Meeting Minutes come due late session.
18 Aug '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil -0.1% is the only BEGOS Market in the red, its cac volume as well rolling from Sep to Oct. Leading to the upside is Silver +2.9% followed by Gold +1.1% which is back above 2000 for the 1st time since last Tue (11 Aug); volatility is moderate. The Spoo continues its flirt with an all-time high (3398 of 20 Feb), being this session 9 points shy so far to 3389; by Market Trends, the Spoo is the only component whose "Baby Blues" have yet to let go to the downside in at least the last week. And by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 95 points "high", the Moneyflow also having be very firm across the prior several weeks. Jul's Housing Starts/Permits come int the Econ Baro.
17 Aug '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Starting off the week finds 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets in the black, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +2.1%, Gold +0.6% and Copper +0.5%; only Oil -0.6% is in the red; volatility is light-to-moderate within the context that several of the components by the Market Ranges page are sporting above-average EDTRs even as we glide into the "dog days of August". The Gold Update cautions becoming enamoured with price's ShortSide despite the lurch lower of late. The Econ Baro begins its week with Aug's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
14 Aug '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower with Silver -3.0% bearing the brunt of the damage, followed by Gold and Oil both -0.4%; to the upside we've Copper +1.2% and the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" depicting consistency are now dropping for 6 of the 8 components, albeit only Copper and the Bond are in actual 21-day linreg downtrends. At Market Values, Gold has worked off much off its extreme excess above the smooth valuation line, albeit price (in real-time) still shows as 63 points "high". A bevy of 8 data metrics hit the Econ Baro today, including Aug's UofM Sentiment Survey, Jul's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, Jun's Business Inventories, plus Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
13 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, the leaders being the PMs with Silver +4.2% followed by Gold +1.2%; weakest is Copper -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate, although the Spoo has traced just 29% of its EDTR. The Spoo's last 3 daily highs (including today thus far) are 3379, 3383 and 3376: the all-time intra-day high is 3398 (20 Feb). The "live" P/E of the S&P is 55.3x. Yet despite these tell-tale signs of a top and severe overvaluation, the Moneyflow into the Index has been strong especially during last week, (mind the Moneyflow page). As for the Econ Baro, 1st-time Jobless Claims are expected to remain above 1MM+, and due, too, is Jul's Ex/Im pricing.
12 Aug '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.5% is lower amongst the BEGOS Markets. Leading the balance of the pack is Silver +4.2%, followed by Oil +1.5% and then Gold +1.1%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond, Gold and Silver all tracing in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Mind, too, the Market Trends page as several components' "Baby Blues" are starting to become unglued: just as all 8 of the bunch have been rising, so, too, can they all fall. Support/resistance apices show quite stark in the PMs Market Profiles. Jul's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
11 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond -0.4% and the metals triumvirate are the BEGOS Markets losers, with Silver -3.2%, Gold -2.1% (and sub-2000), and Copper -0.4%; firmest is Oil +1.8%, followed by the Spoo +0.7% and then the 2 EuroCurrencies, both +0.4%; volatility is moderate, although Gold has traced 123% of its EDTR. Looking at Market Values, Gold (which as stated in the current Gold Update is well "overbought" by any technical measure of your choice) is in real-time some 123 points "high" and the Spoo is 115 points "high". And at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have accelerated their fall sub-0%, whilst those for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold (the latter only just so in real-time) are all rolling over to the downside. Kicking off the Econ Baro's busy week is Jul's PPI.
10 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Copper +2.0% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets in starting the week; up, too, are Oil +0.4% and the Bond +0.1%; the other 5 components are down, including the Swiss Franc -0.6%, Silver -0.4%, and then the Euro and Gold both -0.3%; volatility is moderate, the only exception being Copper having traced 106% of its EDTR. In affirmation of Gold's achieving 2000, The Gold Update deems price (whilst near-term overbought) as nonetheless still well-undervalued relative to currency debasement, whilst the S&P can be halved and still be deemed as expensive. The week looks to 16 metrics scheduled for the Econ Baro.
07 Aug '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Ahead of Jul's Payrolls data we've the BEGOS Markets down almost across the board, save for just the Bond +0.1%. Weakest is Silver -2.2%, followed by Copper -1.3% and then Oil -1.0%; volatility is moderate, albeit Silver has traced 128% of its EDTR: 'tis the one component at Market Ranges whose EDTR plot has all but plowed through the roof of its graphic, (were it not for increased axis scaling capability). And yes, by Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) moved sub-0% without price having broken down. Gold has made an All-Time High (2089) for the 6th straight session. Due, too, for the Econ Baro are Jun's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
06 Aug '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets with safe havens getting the bid: Silver is +3.1%, followed by the Bond +0.5% and then Gold +0.4%; losing are Oil -1.2% and then Copper -1.0% followed by the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) reaching all the way down to their 0% axis still without price having really come off; however by Market Profiles, the red metal (at present 2.8920) is just below its most dominant apex (2.8925). The "live" P/E of the S&P is 50.5x as the weak Q2 Earnings Season continues. Another 1M+ 1st-time Jobless claims come due for the Econ Baro.
05 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: In a bit of a reversal from this time yesterday, only the Bond is instead in the red, -0.4%; leading the other 7 BEGOS Markets higher is Oil +3.2%, followed by Silver +2.7% and then Copper +1.0%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both Oil and Silver tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold/Silver ratio is down to 76.3x its closest approach to the 2001-to-date average (66x) in better than 3 years (10 Jun '17). And lower still fall Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) without price bending to their decay. The Econ Baro awaits Jul's ADP Employment Change and Jun's Trade Deficit.
04 Aug '20, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.3% and less so the EuroCurrencies are in the black; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are led lower by Oil -1.4%, and then Copper -0.9% followed by Silver and the Spoo both -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are falling further still, but it remains that price itself (2.89) hasn't materially cracked. Q2 Earnings Season finds just 33% of the S&P 500 constituents having thus far beating their bottom lines from Q2 a year ago (which, considering the COVID shutdowns, may not seem that poor) albeit it is ramping up our live P/E of the S&P, at present 49.3x. Jun's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
03 Aug '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mostly red start to the Week for the BEGOS Markets with Oil -0.9% leading the downside pack, followed by Silver -0.8% and then the Swiss Franc -0.5%; only the Spoo +0.3% and Copper +0.9% are in the black, the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are nonetheless accelerating their dive; per our 28/29 Jul notes, a red metal move sub-2.84 can bring 2.70, this session's low 2.83 prior to some resiliency. Overall volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to price having tapped 2000, albeit having not as yet settled above that milestone. The busy week for the Econ Baro begins with Jul's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, plus Jun's Construction Spending.
31 Jul '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Front month (Dec) Gold has topped 2000 for the 1st time ever, price at present 1993 (+1.0%); Silver +2.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets: Gold/Silver = 82.3x. The economically-driven components are the weak links with Copper -0.6%, plus Oil and the Spoo both -0.4%; volatility is again moderate-to-robust, today's EDTR tracing leader being Gold at 104%. By the Market Values page, Gold is reading some 168 points "high", a very extreme level but not fundamentally unwarranted. At Market Trends, we've further fallout in Copper's "Baby Blues", but with price having not materially departed the 2.90s these past 2 weeks. The Econ Baro closes out the week with a busy session that includes Jul's Chi PMI, Jun's Personal Income/Spending and fed-favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, and Q2's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jul '20, 04:40 Pacific Time: Cac volume for Gold has moved -- with +22 points of price premium -- from Aug into Dec; the yellow metal is -0.8%, the other BEGOS Markets components (save for the Bond +0.4%) also all in the red, lead by Silver -4.1%, Oil -2.2%, and Copper -1.4%. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver again tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR: such measure for the white metal comparably stands out sharply at Market Ranges. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are continuing their fall. 'Tis an important day for incoming data as, in addition to another 1M+ expected 1st-time Jobless Claims comes the dourly (-35%) anticipated 1st peek at Q2 GDP: of note, the Econ Baro fell to Apr data, but rose to that for both May and Jun. On verra...
29 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Ahead of today's FOMC Policy Statement, session volatility is at best moderate with no one BEGOS Markets component at present changed by more than 1% either way: firmest is Oil +0.8% and weakest are the Bond and Silver, both -0.2%. Copper's "Baby Blues" confirmed falling below their +80% axis and today are lower still, again suggesting 2.70 should 2.84 give way, (currently 2.92). Moreover, in this stint of "everything is up" on Dollar weakness, such can all reverse, especially as the Dollar Index enters structural support in this 93-90 area. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Pending Home Sales.
28 Jul '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold's latest record high is now 1975, however price has since pulled back: on the session 'tis now -0.7% (at 1925); weakest of the BEGOS Markets, (and not surprisingly given its recent volatility) is Silver -4.4%; firmest is the Swiss Franc +0.2%; volatility is moderate, save for the PM's extreme EDTR tracings: that for Silver is 444% and for Gold is 288%. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) falling below the key +80% axis: presently 2.88, a move sub-2.84 could well bring 2.70 given the red metal's relentless up move which began leveling off some 2 weeks ago. July's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
27 Jul '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Gold has moved up further still to an All-Time High of 1942; at present 'tis 1940, +2.1%, bettered amongst the BEGOS Markets only by Silver +6.8%: The Gold Update underscores how Silver remains comparatively undervalued to record-setting Gold. The balance of the bunch are fractionally higher, save for the Swiss Franc -0.1%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with 4 of the components tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, Silver notably with a 252% tracing. The Econ Baro -- which has basically rebounded to pre-Covid levels -- kicks off a key data week with Jun's Durable Orders.
24 Jul '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Again we've a mixed session for the BEGOS Markets as Gold nears its All-Time Closing High milestone of 1900. Shall it be attained ahead of tomorrow's edition of The Gold Update? On verra... Firmest at present is Oil +0.9% whilst weakest is Copper -1.2%; volatility is essentially moderate with only Copper tracing (just barely) beyond 100% of its EDTR by Market Ranges. Silver has eased a bit of its excess above its Market Magnet; Gold yesterday finished 53 points above same. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for all 3 metals are beginning to sag somewhat. The Econ Baro completes its quiet week with Jun's New Home Sales.
23 Jul '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Net changes at present are subtle for the BEGOS Markets: up the most is Copper +0.6% and down the most is Silver -0.9%, the latter being a comparably small change given the white metal's recent daily leaps; session volatility ranges from light for the Bond with just a 25% EDTR tracing to robust for the PMs, both sporting EDTR tracings in excess of 100% despite their muted net changes. For the 2nd time since a week ago, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked below their +80% axis even as the yellow metal seems gunning for the All-Time Closing High of 1900, (price this session having thus far reached 1888). Due for the Econ Baro is another expected 1M+ of 1st-time Jobless Claims plus Jun's Leading Indicators.
22 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver after gaining 6.8% yesterday has been up in this session as much as another 6.8%; at present 'tis +3.8%, the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.9%, the Gold/Silver ratio now down to 82.4x. Weakest of the bunch is Copper -0.8% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility is again moderate-to-robust, Silver itself having traced 255% of its EDTR; not surprisingly given the price move, Silver is comparably excessive above its Market Magnet. Gold's high in this session (1867) is but 33 points from the All-Time Closing High of 1900. The Econ Baro awaits Jun's Existing Home Sales.
21 Jul '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: Gold's daily Parabolics are flipping back to Long and the "Baby Blues" (by Market Trends) have moved back above their +80% axis, both events negating the technical negativity as presented in the most recent Gold Update. The yellow metal is +0.5% in the current session, but far firmer is Silver +2.9%, the session leader at present being Oil +3.2%. There is only marginal weakness in both the Bond and the Euro. Volatility is moderate-to-robust with Silver tracing 127% of its EDTR (by Market Ranges) and Oil 111% of same. The Gold/Silver ratio, whilst still historically high, is down to 87.4x after exceeding 100x as recently as 24 Jun. The Dollar has traded down to its lowest level (95.550) since 10 Mar. Judy "Gold Standard" Shelton shall be assessed today by the Senate Banking Committee as reagrds a Fed Governorship.
20 Jul '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The start of the week finds the BEGOS Markets mildly mixed with no one component at present changed by more than 1% in either direction: firmest is Silver +0.7% and weakest is Oil -0.9%; volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update points to both Gold's daily Parabolics continuing as Short and the "Baby Blues" (by Market Trends) having slipped below their +80% axis, albeit in real-time, the latter have kinked up a tad to sit upon that axis whilst price itself hasn't let go to the downside whatsoever. The Econ Baro has a very light week with nothing scheduled for it until Wed; the expectedly weak Q2 Earnings Seasons ramps up the pace of incoming reports this week.
17 Jul '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Oil -0.5% is in the red, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets moving higher with a shade of Dollar weakness, both Gold and the Swiss Franc +0.5% followed by the Euro +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Nonetheless, Gold is into its 4th session of being in a daily parabolic Short trend, albeit without having really let go to the downside whatsoever, price having only teased the 1790s throughout; still, by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking below their +80% axis, indicative if confirmed of lower levels near-term. The Econ Baro completes to this point a robust week with UoM's Sentiment Survey and Jun's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Amongst the BEGOS Markets, only the Bond +0.2% is in the black; the downside leaders are Copper -1.0%, followed by Silver -0.9%, the Spoo -0.7% and Oil -0.6%; the latter one's cac volume is moving from Aug into Sep; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, all 8 components remain in 21-day linreg uptrends, however several of the bunch are starting to see their "Baby Blues" moving lower. And at Market Profiles, Gold is building a dominant volume trading range between 1807-1813. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with another expected 1M+ in 1st-time Jobless Claims, Jul's Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, Jun's Retail Sales, and May's Business Inventories.
15 Jul '20, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.3% and Oil +1.0% are the BEGOS Markets leaders; of note, the latter component's EDTR by Market Ranges has halved itself from that of 3 months ago and comparatively is narrow vis-a-vis the balance of the bunch as they all come off from the COVID-induced extremes. To the downside is the Bond -0.3% followed by Gold and the Swiss Franc both -0.2%; volatility is moderate, albeit Copper has by a tad exceeded 100% of its EDTR. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's NY Empire State Index plus Jun's Ex/Im pricing and IndProd/Cap/Util.
14 Jul '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag: weakest is Silver -0.8% followed by Gold -0.5%; as anticipated in The Gold Update, the yellow metal's daily Parabolics have flipped to Short such that the near-term test is to still hold The Northern Front (1800-1750). To the firm side we've Copper +0.5% and both Oil and the Spoo +0.4%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, all 8 components remain in 21-day linreg uptrends, albeit Oil's "Baby Blues" are again kinking lower in real-time. The Econ Baro looks to June's CPI.
13 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver +2.3% is the big BEGOS Markets' winner as the week commences, followed by Copper +1.3% and then both Gold and the Spoo +0.7%; the weakest component is Oil -2.0%; volatility is mostly moderate, although Oil has traced by Market Ranges 156% of its EDTR; by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, the only one in the bunch to so do. The Gold Update heralds price's initial tour of The Final Frontier (1800-1900) but cautions that the daily Parabolics are near to flipping Short. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of a week incorporating 16 incoming metrics. Q2 Earnings Season picks up its reporting pace this week as bank results come to the fore.
10 Jul '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag: weakest is Oil -1.5%, with the Spoo and Swiss Franc both -0.5%; on the upside we've Silver +0.8%, Copper +0.7%, and then the Bond +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond having traced 111% of its EDTR. At present by Market Trends, all 8 components are in 21-day linreg uptrends with none of the "Baby Blues" in descent. And at Market Profiles, the bunch are all above their respective midpoints except for Oil which is centered in its range. Due for the Econ Baro is Jun's PPI.
09 Jul '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper +1.5%, Silver +0.7%, and the Bond +0.2% are the BEGOS Markets components in the black, the balance of the bunch just mildly lower; volatility runs from light (Oil and the Spoo sporting EDTR tracings of less than 30%) to robust (Copper with a 102% EDTR tracing). The Moneyflow into the S&P has been as firm as we've seen in recent memory, especially on the Moneyflow page's one week and one month charts, suggestive that the Index (3170) is heading to at least its all-time high (3398) near-to-medium term, (barring some firm fundamental fallout: mind the Q2 Earnings Season page). The Econ Baro looks to a further 1M+ 1st-time Jobless Claims, plus May's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Jul '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold settled yesterday above 1800 (at 1808) for the first time since 20 Sep 2011; at present 'tis +0.4% at 1815. Leading the BEGOS Markets on the upside is Silver +1.3%, followed by Copper +0.7%; to the downside we've only the Bond -0.1%, thus fairly a mirror per 24 hours ago; however, volatility is just mostly light. By its Market Profile, Gold has built in some trading support at 1807, furthered by 1795, and then 1784, its most dominant apex: by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are now moving across that chart's ceiling. The Econ Baro looks to May's Consumer Credit.
07 Jul '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond barely +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the component off the most being Silver -1.7%, followed by Oil -1.3% and then Copper -1.2%; volatility is again moderate. Despite today's weakness, by Market Profiles, none of them at present show price below their respective upper halves; by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" appear toppy, whilst those for the Bond have kinked lower. The Market Rhythms page presently lists 47 qualifying technical studies. And as Q2 Earnings Season begins, our "live" P/E for the S&P is 42.0x.
06 Jul '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Mon session (which technically began post-StateSide bourses close on Thu) finds the BEGOS Markets mostly higher, the only two weak links being the Bond -0.3% and Gold -0.1%; The Gold Update heralds price having "taken" the The Northern Front but not quite yet having "won" it. To the upside we've Silver +1.5%, followed by the Spoo +1.2% and then Oil +0.9%; session volatility is moderate. Silver's push today has reduced the Gold/Silver ratio to 96.4x, (of course still excessively high given the 2001-to-date average of 65.9x). Q2 Earnings Season gets underway this week. And the Econ Baro begins a light week for incoming metrics with Jun's ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Jul '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Despite the StateSide bourses' holiday closure, the BEGOS Markets are underway in what via the GLOBEX trading platform is classified as Mon's session: most of the components are either side of "unch", the exceptions being Copper -0.9% and then Oil -0.4%; volatility not-unexpectedly is quite light. At Market Values, the deviations from price by the respective smooth lines having been excessive given the dramatic sub-zero plunge by Oil (20-21 Apr), have normalized. As well by Market Magnets, we deem none of the present deviations as extreme. And at Market Trends, save for the Euro and the Spoo, the balance of the bunch are in linreg uptrends. The "live" P/E for the S&P is 39.8x and the Gold Silver ratio is 97.9x. Tomorrow's Gold Update shall affirm price having finally taken The Northern Front (1750-1800), but not having realistically as yet won it, (present price = 1788). A safe StateSide holiday to All.
02 Jul '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: 'Tis the week's final trading day for StateSide bourses, albeit the BEGOS Markets commence their "Mon" session come 15:00 Pacific Time today, halting at 10:00 tomorrow (Fri) before continuing Sun at 15:00 per usual. At present the components are mixed with Oil +1.0% the firmest and both Silver and Copper -0.3% the weakest; volatility is light ahead of a batch of Econ Baro data including weekly 1st-Time Jobless Claims of which yet another 1+ million are expected, along with Jun's Payrolls data, and May's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Jul '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Gold yesterday finally took The Northern Front (1750-1800), trading further in this session to as high as 1807, before pulling back. Only Oil +0.4% is at present in the black for the BEGOS Markets; amongst the other 7, weakest is the Spoo -0.5%, followed by Copper -0.4% and then the Bond and Euro, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate, (although the unofficial component of the Yen has traced 111% of its EDTR). By its Market Profile, the Spoo having slipped below its most dominant trading apex of 3098 would see the 2nd most dominant area in the 3046-3039 area. The Econ Baro's busy day includes Jun's ADP Employment data, ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, along with May's Construction Spending. Too, we've the FOMC minutes from the 09-10 Jun meeting.
30 Jun '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Toward Q2's close the session finds most of the BEGOS Markets mildly in the red, the weakest being Oil -1.0%, followed by the Euro -0.3%. The Swiss Franc is "unch" and Copper is +0.7%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. With the exception of the Euro and the Spoo, at Market Ranges most of the EDTRs have returned to more "normal" levels seen toward a year ago. At Market Trends, Silver has reversed the decline by its "Baby Blues", the 21-day linreg trend still negative but less consistently so. Jun's Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence work their way into the Econ Baro.
29 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The abbreviated trading week StateSide starts with just the Bond -0.1% in the red for the BEGOS Markets; firmest is Oil +1.3%, followed by Copper +0.9% and then both the Euro and Silver +0.5%, the white metal's cac volume moving from Jul into Sep. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update is anticipative of the yellow metal hitting 1800 fairly straightaway, albeit price (1786) has been rather subdued with 44% of the EDTR thus far traced; Gold's most dominant Market Profile support is 1770. The Econ Baro begins its busy week of 16 incoming metrics with May's Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: All 8 components of the BEGOS Markets are mildly in the black, the best 2 being Copper +0.7% and Silver +0.2% with the balance only up a skosh; volatility is light ahead of metrics for the Econ Baro that include May's Personal Income/Spending along with the Fed's favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE. Per Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" confirmed moving below their +80% axis such at to suggest a move down toward the mid 1.04s level last seen 2 weeks ago at Market Profiles, the Franc's (at present 1.0579) 2 most dominate volume apices are 1.0570 and 1.0540. Copper's cac volume is moving from Jul into Sep.
25 Jun '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: After making 4 consecutive "higher highs", Gold appears en route to not surpass that for yesterday of 1796, price at present "unch" at 1772; Silver +0.4% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, even as her "Baby Blues" by Market Trends further their fall; only those for the Bond and Gold are rising; Oil -1.2% is the weakest component; volatility is again moderate. Market Profile support for Oil (presently 37.44) is at 36.60, whilst that for the Spoo (presently 3038) is at 2991. The Econ Baro looks to 1st-time Jobless Claims still exceeding the 1M level, May's Durable Orders, and a finalized Q1 GDP at 'round a -5.0% annualized pace.
24 Jun '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold +0.5% is nearing the top of The Northern Front (1750-1800), the session's high to this point being 1796; the only other BEGOS Market in the black (barely) is the Bond +0.1%; weakest is Oil -1.1%, followed by Silver -0.7% (as the Gold/Silver ratio climbs to 99.7x), and then the Euro -0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the most notable "Baby Blues" declines are for Silver, the Euro and the Spoo. The latter, at present 3098, is just below its most dominate Market Profile support price of 3010; for the S&P itself, its Moneyflow has been much firmer than the Index, the "live" P/E (in this zero interest environment) nonetheless a lofty 39.1x.
23 Jun '20, 04:09 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are to the upside, led by Oil +2.1% and then the Spoo and Silver both +0.7%; that noted, the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their drop below the 0% axis whilst those for Gold ascend: the Gold/Silver ratio is again approaching 100x, at present 98.8x. Session volatility is moderate, the Spoo with the largest EDTR tracing at 97% following out-of-context confusion, then clarified, on the trade deal with China. New Home Sales for May come into the Econ Baro.
22 Jun '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: After the Spoo's -1.3% drop on Fri, 'tis regained as much aa +1.3% in starting the week: at present 'tis +0.7%, bettered only by Silver and Copper, both +0.9%; none of the other BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update highlights price's 6th foray up into The Northern Front (1750-1800): this session's gains to 1776 have largely eroded, price now 1759, +0.1%. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" continue their cascade, price thus far this session recording a 4th consecutive "lower high". May's Existing Home Sales begin the Econ Baro's week.
19 Jun '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: As we saw yesterday, most of the BEGOS Markets are in the black with just the Bond and Euro not quite barely above "unch". Firmest is Oil +2.4%, followed by Copper +1.4% and then Silver +1.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. As anticipated per Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" confirmed dropping below their +80% axis, suggestive of still price lower levels: presently 1.1218 we don't note any structural support until 1.1014. The same measure for Copper,, as also noted yesterday, has since confirmed kinking back above the +80% level, nixing a downside notion for now. Q1's Current Account Deficit completes the Econ Baro's climbing week.
18 Jun '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: Only Gold -0.2% and the Spoo -0.1% are lower, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets mostly being higher with Oil +1.4%, Copper +1.1%, and Silver +0.5%; volatility continues at a moderate pace. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing below their +80% axis yesterday, however in real-time they've kinked back up; those for the Euro (in real-time) are provisionally below that +80% mark. Silver's 21-day linreg trend has rotated from positive to negative. Looking to the Econ Baro is the expectation for another 1M+ in 1st-time Jobless Claims, plus Jun's Philly Fed Index and May's Leading Indicators.
17 Jun '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: There's less bias one way or the other than we've seen in recent days for the BEGOS Markets. To the upside is the Spoo +0.7%, Copper +0.5% and Silver +0.4%; to the down side is Gold -0.6%, and the Bond and Euro both -0.1%; volatility is moderate. As noted yesterday Copper's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are now (in real-time) dropping below their key +80% axis; those for the Euro are curling down but have yet to breach that axis. Oil's cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. Powell wraps up his 2-day Congressional testimony. Due for the Econ Baro are May's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher with Oil +1.7% leading the pack, followed by the Spoo +1.1% and then Copper +0.4%; only the Bond -0.5% is basically weaker. Session volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" crossed below their +80% axis, however the targeted area in the 35s has already been supportive the last 3 sessions; by the same signal however, we're minding both the Euro and Copper. Powell begins his 2-day testimony to Congress. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's NAHB Housing Index, May's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Apr's Business Inventories.
15 Jun '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: 'Tis mostly red across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum to start the week: only the Bond +0.6% and Swiss Franc +0.1% are in the black. Weakest is Oil -3.0% followed by Copper -2.8% and then the Spoo and Silver both -2.2%. The Gold Update again cites Silver as a downside concern near-term (the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends accelerating their drop) along with Gold lacking the nerve to take The Northern Front (1750-1800). Session volatility is moderate-to-robust as both Gold and the Spoo exceed EDTR tracings of 100%. The Spoo's cac volume is rolling from Jun into Sep. Jun's NY State Empire Index begins a fairly busy week for the Econ Baro.
12 Jun '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's -5.3% loss, the Spoo now +1.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; Copper is +1.5% and Oil +0.8%; weakest are yesterday's gainers at this time, the Bond -0.6% and the Swiss Franc -0.3%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. At Market Trends we've still lower levels for Silver's "Baby Blues" albeit price has really yet to let go to the downside, the PMs getting some safe-have stability; but that measure (in real-time) has now broken below the respective +80% axes for both Oil and the Spoo. The EuroCurrencies cac volume is rolling from Jun into Sep. The Econ Baro closes out the week with Jun's UofM Sentiment Survey and May's Ex/Im Pricing.
11 Jun '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: Turning back down from yesterday, the dovish FOMC notwithstanding, the BEGOS Market components ('cept for the Bond +0.5% and the Swiss Franc +0.1%) are in the red, the weakest being Oil -2.9% followed by the Spoo -2.0%, and then the metals triumvirate led by Copper -1.9% and Silver -1.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust: both the Spoo and Copper have exceeded 100% of their EDTR tracings. Despite Silver's +3.4% session yesterday, her "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue to descend. Due for the Econ Baro is May's PPI, plus another +1M in 1st-time Jobless Claims.
10 Jun '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, every BEGOS Market component ('cept for Oil -1.2%) is in the black: firmest is Copper +1.0%, followed by Silver +0.6% and then the Bond +0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" are now in their 6th straight day of diving, whilst those for Oil which have been pasted to the ceiling ought be monitored to soon drop should price this week remain lackluster. At Market Magnets, Copper is getting upside far afield relative to the past three months, economic recovery nonetheless boosting price. The Econ Baro looks to May's CPI, the Fed and Powell presser then later highlighting the session.
09 Jun '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by its economically-driven components with Oil -1.8% and the Spoo -0.8%; of note, Silver is -1.0% as by Market Trends its "Baby Blues" continue to drop; firmest is the Bond +0.7% followed by Gold +0.5% and then the Swiss Franc +0.4%; volatility is again moderate. The S&P's Moneyflow continues to lack the upside gains of late by the Index itself as shown on that page in both the one week and one month graphics. The Econ Baro begins its week with Apr's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Jun '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and EuroCurrencies are lower in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets. Firmest is Silver +1.7%, despite by Market Trends the white metal's "Baby Blues" having slipped below their +80 axis: this is highlighted as well in The Gold Update, wherein we also suggest Gold seeing at 1600 before 1800 given the lack of fundamental interest in pushing price up through The Northern Front (1750-1800); present price is 1699, +0.6%. Also higher this session Oil is +1.3. Volatility is moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio remains at an extremely high 95.0x and the "live" P/E of the S&P 500 is 38.5x.
05 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets are looking beyond what clearly shall be a horrid Payrolls report for May*: we've Oil +2.5%, Copper +1.7% and the Spoo +0.7%; the latter at 3134 is less than 8% (264 points) below its all-time high of 3398. Weakest this session are Silver -0.9%, Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both the Bond and Copper tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" are near to crossing below their +80% axis, which when confirmed would then suggest lower price levels. Additionally due late in the session for the Econ Baro is Apr's Consumer Credit. *Rather, "surprise" turn to the upside: 2.5M net new Payrolls (pre-revision) vs. consensus for reduction of 8.8M .
04 Jun '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Per yesterday's note on the S&P's Moneyflow, it weakened further still vis-à-vis the Index's rise yesterday: now we've the Spoo -0.4% which is 2nd on the downside only to Copper -0.6% amongst the BEGOS Markets; leading to the upside are the PMs with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. Presently 3104, the Spoo is on a Market Profile trading apex, below which the next one of note is 3090; continue to mind, too, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" along with those for Silver and Oil at Market Trends; those for the EuroCurrencies are also above their +80% axes. The Econ Baro awaits Apr's Trade Deficit and Q1's revision to Productivity and Unit Labor Costs; ECB & Lagarde presser on tap.03 Jun '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Just the Euro and the Spoo, both +0.3%, are in the black; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are led to the downside by Oil - 1.7%, Silver -1.1%, and Gold -0.5%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, notable "Baby Blues" patterns for which to anticipate curling to the downside include those for Oil, Silver and the Spoo. Specific to the S&P itself, per the Moneyflow page, that measure has been (on a near-term basis) underperforming the Index itself: across the past 5 sessions, it "ought be" some 40 points lower than 'tis, (i.e. the S&P is getting a bit frothy). Due for the Econ Baro are May's ADP Employment report and the ISM(Svc) Index, plus Apr's Factory Orders.
02 Jun '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil +2.0% is the upside leader of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo +0.5%, Copper +0.4% and the Euro +0.3%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility continues to run at a moderate pace. At Market Ranges, EDTRs remain mostly above their average high areas year-over-year in coming down from their Apr/May extremes. At Market Trends (and as is noted in the current Gold Update) the only BEGOS component with a negative 21-day linreg trend is the Bond. Gold at 1752 is now in its 3rd straight day of teasing the base of The Northern Front (1750-1800) without material upside push. May's Vehicle Sales roll in during the day for the Econ Baro.
01 Jun '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week on a mixed basis: firmest is Silver +0.5% whilst weakest is the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to price being net "unch" since the 07 April intra-day high of 1743 despite the StateSide M2 measure of the money supply being +8.8% since that date. Moreover since 24 April, Gold is -0.2%, but Silver is +20.4%. Still, the Gold/Ratio at present is 93.8x, extremely high, historically. Meanwhile, the S&P's "live" P/E is 39.7x. The Econ Baro's busy week starts with May's ISM(Mfg) Index and Apr's Construction Spending.
29 May '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: Only Oil -2.9% and the Spoo -0.3% are in the red, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the black, led by Silver +1.7%, plus both Gold and the Euro +0.5%; volatility is again moderate. For the 3rd straight session we've Oil having made a "lower high" to this point, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends only marginally slipping (at +92% in real-time); at Market Profiles, Oil (at present 32.76) shows trading support at 32.00, below which price can quickly accelerate lower. Cac volume in the Bond has rolled from Jun into Sep. Due for the Econ Baro are May's Chi PMI and UofM Sentiment revision, along with Apr's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Inflation. Pres. Trump holds a presser on PRC tensions.
28 May '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher with just the EuroCurrencies barely in the red. The upside is led by Oil +1.1%, Gold +1.0%, and then Silver +0.8%; volatility is moderate. Oil whilst up this session has nonetheless printed a "lower high" for the 2nd day running: per the Market Trends page the "Baby Blues" remain above +80% but again are slipping. We deem the S&P 500 as being overbought by its near-term classic measures of BollBands, Stochastics and RSI: as well, the "live" P/E is 39.7x. The Econ Baro looks to another 2 million 1st-time Jobless Claims, Apr's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first revision to Q1 GDP.
27 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: We've a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being the Spoo +1.1% and the weakest link being Oil -0.5%; volatility ranges from light for both Oil and the Bond with EDTR tracings just in the 30% range to over 100% for both EuroCurrencies. Jun Gold is trading sub-1700 for the 1st time since 12 May, however volume is moving into the Aug cac for which there is some 20 points of premium. Per the Market Trends, page Oil appears in the early stages of forming a top such that the "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) mildly kinked lower, but at +94% remain well above the +80% axis that would otherwise suggest lower levels. The Fed's Tan Tome comes due at 11:00 Pacific Time.
26 May '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: Into this 2nd day of the session for Tue's settlement we've now only 2 BEGOS Markets in the red (vs. just 2 in the black at this point yesterday), namely Gold -0.6% and the Bond -0.3%; leading to the upside are the economically-driven components of the Spoo +1.7% (at present back above the 3000 level), Oil +1.6% and Copper +1.2%; volatility given the combined 2-day session has expanded from moderate-to-robust as 3 of the bunch have exceeded EDTR tracings of 100%. The Econ Baro begins its week of 12 incoming metrics with May's Consumer Confidence and Apr's New Home Sales.
25 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session for Tue settlement finds the BEGOS Markets mostly lower: only the Spoo +0.9% and Copper +0.7% are in the black; weakest is Silver -1.4% followed by Gold -0.4%. The Gold Update cautiously queries if COVID is priced into Gold, notably given its failed 3rd attempt to rise up and through The Northern Front, and further that a modest "vee" has formed for the Econ Baro ... on verra. Session volatility is mostly moderate, ranges obviously expected to expand given they'll count through tomorrow. Q1 Earnings Season is complete with just 46% of the S&P 500's constituents bettering their bottom lines over Q1 from a year ago ... with, we'd expect, a worse Q2 in the balance. With our physical bourses closed, Memorial Day is observed with a GLOBEX trading halt from 10:00 to 15:00 Pacific Time.
22 May '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are the weak links led by Oil -5.4%, Copper -1.8%, and the Spoo -0.2%; weak as well are the EuroCurrencies; to the upside is Gold +0.5%, followed by the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Oil and Copper exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. At Market Ranges, EDTRs are well off their extremes, but still above the norm in most cases. Oil at 32.09 is trading below its closes of prior four sessions: we'll be watching for the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) to eventually crack. The Econ Baro is set for the week, its first higher one in the last six; Q1 Earnings wrap up their worst Season since Q3 of 2009.
21 May '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the upside leader being Oil +2.2% and the Bond only +0.2%, followed by the Euro +0.1%; to the downside we've Silver -2.2% after having made 6 sessions of "higher highs", and then Gold -0.9%, (presently 1736) back south of The Northern Front (1750-1800), followed by the Spoo -0.7%; volatility is moderate. For the PMs, Gold shows nearest trading support by its Market Profile at 1724 while for Silver (presently 17.66) 'tis at 17.45. The Econ Baro awaits May's Philly Fed Index and Apr's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
20 May '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Only the Bond, off by just 2 pips, is in the red, the 7 other BEGOS Markets moving higher but with only the Spoo +1.2% up by better than +1.0%; volatility ranges from light with EDTR tracings of just 28% for both the Bond and Oil to robust by the Swiss Franc's 104% EDTR tracing. Gold at 1755 is creeping back up such as to tease the lower area of The Northern Front (1750-1800), whilst Silver continues to outpace the PMs on the upside, the Gold/Silver ratio further dropping to 97.6x. Oil has has a great month-over-month up run, its "Baby Blues" (at Market Trends) rising (in real-time) to 93%, but with price down for a 2nd day; and by the Market Values page, Oil is some 13 points "high".
19 May '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are thus far comparatively quiet, the biggest net changer being Oil -1.9%; the 7 other components are at present changed either way by less than 1.0%; volatility is moderate. Per the Market Trends page, several of the "Baby Blues" patterns appear rather erratic; 6 of the 8 markets are in 21-day linreg uptrends, the only 2 in downtrends being the Bond and just barely so the Swiss Franc. Per the S&P 500's Moneyflow page, yesterday's +3.2% rally was not fully supported by the flow, albeit the Spoo per the Market Profiles page has support apices down to 2907. Still, our "live" P/E for the S&P is 40.2x. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Housing Starts/Permits.
18 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +7.3%, Silver +4.0% and Copper +2.2% are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders into the new week, the Spoo, too, +1.3%. Only the Bond and the EuroCurrencies are lower, and just mildly at that; volatility again ranges from light-to-robust, depending on the component: the Swiss Franc's EDTR tracing is 37% whilst that for Silver is 133%. The Gold Update points to price's 3rd attempt to take The Northern Front (1750-1800) and thus far today 'tis reached the halfway mark at 1775; meanwhile Silver's comparative strength has driven the Gold/Silver ratio back below 100x (99.8x) for the first time since 12 Mar. May's NAHB Housing Index is today's Econ Baro metric.
15 May '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower whilst the safe havens are higher. Firmest is Silver +2.7%, (Gold however is but +0.2%, knocking the Gold/Silver ratio down to 104.7x, still excessively high historically), and weakest is the Spoo -0.9%; volatility runs the gamut from light for the Swiss Franc's 34% EDTR tracing to robust for that of Silver's 109% EDTR tracing. With a week to run in Q1 Earnings Season, 44% at large (and 47% for the S&P 500) have improved their year-over-year quarterly bottom lines. 'Tis a busy session for the Econ Baro with May's Empire State Index and UofM Sentiment Survey, Apr's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with Mar's Business Inventories.
14 May '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, but only mildly so, the weakest being Copper -0.7%; firmest is Oil +3.5% followed by the Bond +0.7%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. At Market Values, the Spoo has essentially returned to its smooth valuation line. So far this week despite the selling in the S&P, its Moneyflow has not been as weak as the Index itself; indeed the same can be said for the past month, however not so for the past quarter (all per the Moneyflow page). The Econ Baro awaits another 2M-3M in weekly first time Jobless Claims, plus Apr's Ex/Im pricing.
13 May '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black with Oil +1.9% leading the pack, followed by Copper +1.2% and then the Spoo +1.0%; volatility is light-to-moderate with a Chair Powell address and Q&A slated for 06:00 Pacific Time. The WSJ is a running piece on the reduction in market volatility, which has already been herein highlighted for many weeks per the Market Ranges page and narrowing EDTRs. Yesterday's Spoo drop essentially halved its "high" extreme per the Market Values page: 'tis now (in real-time) 109 points above the smooth valuation line. Apr's PPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 May '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher with Oil +3.5% followed by Gold +0.4%; weakest is Copper -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Oil, Copper and the Spoo are by their respective linreg measures rising, the balance of the other 5 components by same falling, albeit Silver's "Baby Blues" have begun to accelerate back up. At Market Values, the Spoo is still "high", at present by 208 points, its "live" up to 39.2x as earnings deteriorate. Meanwhile at Market Magnets there are no excessive deviations whatsoever. Apr's CPI and Treasury Budget all arrive for the Econ Baro.
11 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are starting the week in the red, Oil -2.2% being the weakest followed by Copper -1.4% and then Silver -0.9%; volatility ranges from light for Oil's 34% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper's 104% EDTR tracing, albeit such measures are narrowing per the Market Ranges page. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's near-term trend as having rotated to negative, the 21-day linreg study having so done last Wednesday. With another week or so to run in Q1 Earnings Season, 407 constituents of the S&P 500 have reported, 47% bettering their bottom lines; Q2 may, of course, fare worse. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of a back-loaded busy week.
08 May '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Ahead of Apr's expectedly worst Payrolls report of our lifetimes, all 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Oil +1.6% down through the Euro +0.1%; volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Values, the Spoo still reads as quite "high", at present 259 points above its smooth valuation line; Gold is 52 points above its like measure; the 3 other primary BEGOS components are (per our 06 May note) are now pretty much in line with their like valuations. At Market Rhythms, 57 measures qualify for the list. Despite Gold's robust turnaround yesterday, at Market Trends the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" continue their fall, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to negative. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Mar's Wholesale Inventories report.
07 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and EuroCurrencies are in the red, and just barely, the balance of the BEGOS Markets on the upside with Oil +6.6%, Copper +1.5%, the Spoo +1.3% and Silver +1.2%; volatility is again moderate. Oil's cac volume for Jul has finally moved (albeit earlier than is the norm per our 29 Apr note) ahead of that for Jun. EDTRs per the Market Ranges page continue to narrow: they're still skewed above the norm, but save for Oil, they're returning to near what were considered upper areas of their respective ranges. The Econ Baro awaits another massive Jobless Claims number as well as the first report of Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus Mar's Consumer Credit.
06 May '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Silver +1.0% is the BEGOS Markets' upside leader whilst weakest are Gold, the Bond, and the Euro, each -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" are in ascent for the Bond and Oil, those for the 6 components all tracking lower. At Market Values, prices are nearing realignment with their respective valuation lines: of note, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 293 points "high", still by Market Profiles, the Spoo appears supportive from 2873-2856 whilst Gold's most dominant resistor is 1713. Looking to the Econ Baro, the ADP Employment report expectedly anticipates job losses exceeding 20M.
05 May '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: After its weak start to the week before recovering yesterday, Oil +6.5% is the session's leader, followed by the Spoo +1.0%; the EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets most in the red, the Euro itself -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust as those currencies trace in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, Germany's constitutional court questioning the "proportionality" of the ECB's bond purchasing program. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are crossing below their 0% axis lines as prices' 21-day linreg trends rotate toward negative. Apr's ISM(Svc) Index and Mar's Trade Deficit are due for the Econ Baro.
04 May '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil -4.3% begins the week as the BEGOS Markets' weakest link, followed by the Spoo -0.8% and then Copper -0.7%; firmest are the Bond and Gold, both +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites price having again failed to take The Northern Front (1750-1800), indeed falling last week to as low as 1676, price at present back up to 1714; yet by Market Values, price appears (in real-time) some 87 points "high", the like measure for the Spoo finding it 241 points "high"; both readings however are less extreme than they've been in the past several weeks; still for both components, their "Baby Blues" are in decline per the Market Trends page. The Econ Baro begins another busy week with Mar's Factory Orders.
01 May '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.4% and EuroCurrencies (both +0.3%) are in the black for the BEGOS Markets, the downside leader being Copper -2.2% followed by Oil -1.8% and then the Spoo -1.3%; volatility is moderate in the context of the EDTRs continuing to drop per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (after having fallen below their +80% axis back on 23 April only to then nonetheless see price rise) have today further moved lower; even with price's drop both yesterday and today, the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) 306 points "high". Gold's overhead resistance continues defeating price, which is now back sub-1700 as we'll review in tomorrow's Gold Update. Due for the Econ Baro is Apr's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, along with Mar's Construction Spending. Most Euro and Asian bourses are closed for the 01 May holiday.
30 Apr '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil +14.1% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver +0.9% and then the Swiss Franc +0.2%; weakest is the Spoo -0.9%; volatility is moderate. The S&P in trading 2935 yesterday achieved the "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 23 Mar low (2192) back up toward the 19 Feb all-time high (3394). By the Market Values page, the Spoo is (in real-time) 407 points "high"; by Market Profiles, volume trading supports are at 2905, 2867, and 2856. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including another dire Jobless Claims report, Apr's Chi PMI, Mar's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Inflation, plus Q1's Employment Cost Index.
29 Apr '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: The only BEGOS Market in the red at present is Gold -0.3%; to the upside is Oil +7.1%: still, concerns over Jun Oil staying above water sees some traders moving earlier than usual into the Jul cac as brokers place clients' Jun positions into liquidation, (cac vol still dominant in the Jun cac). Cac volumes on both Silver and Copper have rolled from May into Jul. The Spoo is +1.1%, however the S&P's Moneyflow has been unsupportive of the Index both days this week. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. On deck for the Econ Baro are the 1st read on Q1 GDP and Mar's Pending Home Sales. Then we've the FOMC's Policy Statement along with Powell's presser.
28 Apr '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' weak links are Oil -9.9% followed by the PMs with Silver -0.9% and then Gold -0.1%; firmest is the Spoo, +1.1% and back above 2900 for the 1st time since 09 March; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are steadying after dropping below the key +80% level last Thu; for the S&P itself, 2935 (+61.8%) would mark the "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 23 Mar low (2192) back up toward the 19 Feb all-time high (3394). Session volatility ranges from light for the Bond with just a 30% EDTR tracing to robust for the Swiss Franc's 103% EDTR tracing. Apr's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
27 Apr '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo +0.8% and the Euro +0.2% are higher to begin the new week for the BEGOS Markets; weakest (not surprisingly in large % swings) is Oil -17.7% at 14.14, followed by Gold -0.7% and then Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update continues to cite price's being repelled resistance in the battles for The Northern Front (1750-1800), Gold at present 1734. A busy week ensues for the Econ Baro with 14 metrics due, plus the FOMC and Powell presser come Wed; busy too is Q1 Earnings Season, the weakest thus far since Q2 of 2009.
24 Apr '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.2% and Silver +0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the weakest being Oil -0.7% followed by Copper -0.5%; volatility is mostly light with only the Bond and Swiss Franc having exceeding EDTR tracings of 50%. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends confirmed moving below the +80% axis: that portending lower levels, we see structural Spoo support around the 2635 area; again by Market Values, the Spoo remains very "high" by (in real-time) some 282 points. The Econ Baro completes its week of just 5 data inputs with Apr's revised UofM Sentiment Survey and Mar's Durable Orders.
23 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: With another multi-million Jobless Claims report in the imminent wings, we've a mixed picture for the BEGOS Markets, led to the upside by Oil +9.6%, Silver +2.1%, and Gold +1.1%; weaker are the EuroCurrencies, both the Euro itself and Swiss Franc -0.4%; volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" confirmed slipping below their +80% axis yesterday, whilst same is provisionally the case today for the Spoo, suggesting lower levels ahead for both components. The Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) 298 points above its smooth valuation line. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Mar's New Home Sales.
22 Apr '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: With Oil as low (11.57) as 'tis, a move of one full point is essentially a 10% change, i.e. -11.8% at present; only the Bond -0.2 is also lower. Firmest of the BEGOS Markets is the Spoo +1.2% followed by Gold +1.1%; ever-lagging is Silver +0.4%, the Gold/Silver ratio at 114.6x; at Market Values, Gold shows as some 183 points "high". Session volatility is light-to-moderate as EDTRs, whilst still above normal, are continuing to narrow per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, whilst 6 of the 8 components are in linreg uptrends, the "Baby Blues" are falling for the all but those of the Bond (up a kink in real-time despite the mild price slip).
21 Apr '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: As worthless May Oil rolls off the trading rolls, swiftly following (at least for the present) is Jun Oil, -21.1% at 16.74 and clearly the weakest component of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Copper -4.4%, Silver -3.4%, the Spoo -1.6% and Gold -1.5%; the Bond +0.5% is the firmest of the bunch; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and Silver exceeding 100% of their EDTRs ... along with Oil's 368% tracing. Per Market Trends and as depicted in The Gold Update, the PMs "Baby Blues" have slipped below their respective +80% axes, suggestive of lower still prices, (our penned notion being the mid-1600s for Gold and the mid-14s for Silver). Mar's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Apr '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets components are in the red to start the week, led by Oil -9.3%, the Spoo -1.4%, and Copper -0.4%; the Bond and the PMs are only marginally higher; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to the otherwise little-cited overhead resistance having won last week's battles at the Northern Front (1750-1800), price dropping 97 points from high-to-low to find itself again sub-1700 (1694 at present). As far undervalued as is Gold fundamentally, it still remains "high" per the Market Values page by (in real-time) some 158 points. As the week unfolds, just 5 metrics are due for the Econ Baro. Q1 Earnings Season early on is expectedly looking dismal.
17 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +1.6% and Copper +1.3%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by what were the upside leaders at this time yesterday, Silver now -2.7% and Gold -1.6%. Oil on outgoing May cac trading has into the 18 handle, (an 18-year low), however volume has moved into the Jun cac which at present is 25.92, -0.4%; session volatility is moderate. The Market Rhythms page continues to be rife with studies, some 53 presently qualifying for the list. The Econ Baro closes out its expectedly poor week with Mar's Leading Indicators.
16 Apr '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Mixed again are the BEGOS Markets with the PMs strongest of the bunch, both Gold and Silver +1.1%, followed by the Spoo +0.7%; the Bond is "unch" and the EuroCurrencies mildly weaker; volatility is mostly light within the context that per the Market Ranges page, EDTRs continue their plunge. At Market Trends, only the Bond's 21-day linreg trend is negative. 'Tis ever so early on in Q1 Earnings Season, but of the 14 S&P 500 components having thus far reported, only 1 has bettered its bottom line from the like quarter of a year ago. Due for the Econ Baro are another vast round of Jobless Claims, plus Apr's Philly Fed Index and Mar's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.9%, 'tis a sea of red for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Oil -5.6% (at 19.64), the Spoo -1.8%, Copper -1.7% and Silver -1.6%; volatility is moderate. Extreme distances from valuations (lower for Oil and higher for the other 4 primary components) remain de rigueur at the Market Values page; however by the faster Market Magnets, only Gold and the Spoo appear excessively "high". The Gold/Silver ratio remains 'round all-time highs at 111.1x and the "live" P/E for the S&P 500 is 36.4x. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro which receives Apr's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index, Mar's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Feb's Business Inventories.
14 Apr '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: We've another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Oil -1.6% and the firmest being Silver +1.5%, followed by the Spoo +1.0%; volatility in recent context is mostly light, again with reference to the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking lower whilst those for the balance of the 7 other components continue to climb. At Market Values, distances above their respective smooth valuation lines remain "high" for all but Oil amongst the 5 primary components. The Econ Baro awaits Mar's Ex/Im Pricing.
13 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets: to the upside we've Copper +3.1% and to the downside Silver -1.4%, followed by the Spoo -1.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate with Market Ranges still well above "normal" but nonetheless plummeting. The Gold Update graphically depicts price's overhead resistance battles as it stands on the threshold of "hyperdrive" should history from 2011 repeat itself. The missive also points to Gold's ongoing long-term undervaluation relative to currency debasement, but as well to its short-term overvaluation vis-à-vis the Market Values page. Euro-bourses are closed as the weekend holiday continues.
10 Apr '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The abbreviated trading week ends with Gold's highest weekly close (1741) in better than 7 years, the +5.6% gain ranking 12th-best since at least 2000. For the S&P 500 (as measured by the gain in the Spoo), the week's +11.0% increase ranks 2nd-best per the same time frame. For the S&P itself (2790) a key level for which to watch is 2947, the "Golden Ratio" retracement point from the low (2192) which followed the high (3394). Despite today's markets' closures, due for the Econ Baro is Mar's PPI and the Treasury Budget. Q1 Earnings Season completes its first week.
09 Apr '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets in the final session for this week are mostly higher, led by Oil +4.7% and then the PMs, with Silver +2.0% and Gold +1.5%; Gold is attempting to finish the trading week above 1700 for the first time since that ending 07 December 2012; only Copper -0.8% and the Spoo -0.1% are lower; volatility is mostly light as Market Ranges continue to plunge. Nonetheless, we've 50 signals at present qualifying for listing on the Market Rhythms page; (typically under "normal" conditions, that list numbers in the teens-to-20s). Today the Econ Baro gets another large belt of Jobless Claims, along with Apr's UofM Sentiment Survey, Mar's PPI, and Feb's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Apr '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, no one component at present with a net change of 1% or more in either direction; the economically-driven elements are to the upside and the Bond and EuroCurrencies are to the downside; volatility, too, is light with no one component sporting an EDTR tracing in excess of 50%: again, EDTRs are steeply dropping per the Market Ranges page. At Market Magnets, prices are comparatively near their magnets, however by the broader Market Values page, (in real-time) the Bond shows as 20 points "high", the Euro as .0800 points "high", Gold as 219 points "high", Oil as 10 points "low", and the S&P as 106 points "high". And at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" irrespective of trend itself are in ascent across the board.
07 Apr '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The S&P 500's +7.0% rise yesterday ranks as its 7th best since as far back as at least 1980; the Spoo in this session +3.2% ought bring the S&P back above 2700 for the 1st time since 13 Mar. Copper +3.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are in the black save for the Bond -1.1%; Gold finally settled above 1700 for the 1st time this year, "everything being up" having the ring of monetary accommodation inflation. Session volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 26% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 104% EDTR tracing; again, mind the Market Ranges page. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Feb's Consumer Credit. Q1 Earnings Season is underway.
06 Apr '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo +3.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver +1.6%, Copper +1.2% and Gold +0.9%; weakest is Oil -5.6%, and the balance of the bunch are mildly lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as coming off an essentially "unch" week (accounting for the premium in the Jun cac) -- despite all the monetary accommodation -- whilst the S&P's declining volatility and lack of negative moneyflow can be construed as fear somewhat abating. At the Market Values page, the Spoo (in real-time) after having been as shown as much as 800 points "low" has all but returned up to its declining valuation line; that for Gold (presently 1623), however, shows price as 222 points "high"; bear in mind, too, Gold's resistance above 1700.
03 Apr '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: The expected reduction in Payrolls data for Mar (given a 08-14 Mar survey period) shan't be representative of the wholesale StateSide economic shutdown, the Apr data in a month's time to be magnitudes worse. Ahead of the data, save for Oil +7.4%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are marginally in the red, none at present by even -1.0%; volatility (except for Oil's 97% EDTR tracing) is light, albeit Market Ranges remain high even as they drop. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have joined those for the Spoo and Copper in crossing above the -80% level, suggesting further price recovery ahead. Also due for the Econ Baro is the ISM(Svc) reading for Mar.
02 Apr '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil +5.0% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver +2.0% and then the Spoo +1.1%; weakest is the Euro -0.5%; volatility is mostly light given from where EDTRs have been, the Market Ranges page showing them still excessive, but noticeably contracting. Still, the overall level of studies qualifying for the Markets Rhythm page is plentiful, the list presently populated by 44 analyses. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are working higher, plus those for Copper have (in real-time) curled up above their -80% level suggestive of higher prices: the red metal presently 2.19 in a resistive area, higher structural resistance comes 'round the 2.50s. For the Econ Baro, another large Jobless Claims number is due as well as Feb's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Apr '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The Spoo -3.3% is the BEGOS Markets' downside leader followed by Copper -2.3%; however, +2.3% is Oil, followed by the Bond +0.9% and then Gold +0.8%; volatility is mostly moderate given EDTRs continue to narrow, but again within the context of their being near extreme levels per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, even including today's real-time move lower by the Spoo, its "Baby Blues" continue their climb; by Market Values, the Spoo which had shown as much as 800 points "low" is still (in real-time) 215 points "low". The first sign of the virus jobs hit ought be seen in Mar's ADP data, other metrics also due for the Econ Baro including the month's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, along with Feb's Construction Spending.
31 Mar '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil +6.1% is this session's big whirl 'round component of the BEGOS Markets, with both Copper and the Bond also sporting marginal gains; weakest is Gold -2.0% followed by the EuroCurrencies both down about -1.0%, and then Silver -0.7%; again volatility is comparatively light-to-moderate as EDTRs per the Market Ranges page are narrowing: whilst still far above normal, the suggestion is that fear is seeping out of the markets. At Market Magnets, save for the Spoo which appears "high", the other 7 of the bunch see the Magnets drawing back their respective prices; yet more broadly per Market Values, deviations remain extreme. The Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence for Mar come into the Econ Baro.
30 Mar '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil clearly the weakest -6.8% and having briefly dipped sub-20; 2nd weakest is Silver -3.0%; the remainder are in the red by fractional %s. Volatility is light-to-moderate, albeit still vast compared to the norm: at Market Ranges, EDTRs are notably topping. The Gold Update emphasizes the yellow metal having made a 4th material run in the past 5 weeks to clear 1700 only to again be foiled: indeed only one trading day has closed above our call for 1675 as the year's high; but clearly we're all surprised that Gold hasn't moved well up beyond that level given the massive global monetary and fiscal stimuli. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with Feb's Pending Home Sales.
27 Mar '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Narrowing Market Ranges continue to work their way into the BEGOS Markets, obviously within the context of still quite extreme EDTRs: still at this point of the session, only one component -- the Euro -- has an EDTR tracing exceeding 50% (at 51%), whilst Oil is narrowest at just 26%. By change, the bunch are basically mixed: down the most is Oil, -2.6% followed by the Spoo -2.4%; up the most is the Bond +0.9% followed by Silver +0.8%. At Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) ascending up through their -80% suggestive of still higher levels ahead: presently 2556, the Spoo encounters structural resistance beginning up at 2695. Gold's cac volume is moving from Apr into Jun. The Baro receives the revised UofM Sentiment read for Mar, along with Feb's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Index.
26 Mar '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, we detect a narrowing in EDTR tracings, today across the entire BEGOS Markets spectrum, the rangiest being the Euro with just a 52% tracing; least rangy is Oil at 30%; it is also the weakest of the bunch, -2.2%, followed by Copper -1.3% and then the Spoo -1.1%; firmest is the Bond, +0.8%. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl up from their floor, as notably are those for Silver, with Oil appearing near to so doing. Obviously Jobless Claims shall begin to get much attention overing these ensuing weeks, the Econ Baro also today getting the final read on Q4's GDP.
25 Mar '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is notably less rangy than has been the case for many-a-night to this point: no one component's EDTR tracings have exceeded 100%, the rangiest being that for Gold of 86%; further, 4 of the 8 components have tracings of less than 50%; thus volatility is light-to-moderate within the context of the recent extreme ranginess. Weakest is Oil -3.1%, followed by Copper -2.1% and then Gold -1.5%; firmest is Silver +0.5%; the Gold/Silver ratio (which had been above 120x) is 113.9x. Mon and Tue saw a record high rise points-wise from low-to-high for Gold of +213 points; ('twas on a % basis the 7th largest such rise -- +19.0% -- since the nixing of the Gold Standard). The Senate has passed the "rescue package". The Econ Baro awaits Feb's Durable Orders.
24 Mar '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: Whirlin' 'round finds the Spoo locked "limit up", +5.2% from its GLOBEX settle; indeed nary a BEGOS Markets components is in the red, (the Bond is "unch"), with the PMs leading the way: Gold is +7.7% and Silver +6.3%; volatility in the context of these vastly widened EDTRs runs from light (the Bond and Oil with tracings of just 27% and 32% respectively) to robust, led by Gold with a 208% tracing. Gold, which as noted yesterday had been in line with its Market Values level, is now in real-time 185 points" high"; extreme reading as well exist as follows for the other 4 primary components: the Bond is 26 points "high", the Euro nearly 0.08 points "high" (i.e "ought be" near to parity with the Dollar by this measure), Oil 21 points "low" and the Spoo (even limit up) as 652 points low. Feb's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Mar '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Twice this session has the Spoo found itself locked "limit down", before having moved well off the low (2174) to presently be 2234, -1.5%; Oil at one one was -12.0% to 20.80 before recovering now to 22.14, -6.3%; Copper is -3.5%. The only BEGOS Markets gainer is the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate with just the red metal having traded in excess of 100% of its EDTR, which by the Market Ranges page obviously remain at extreme readings. Per the Market Values page, only Gold is aligned with its smooth valuation line, the other 4 primary components well-skewed from same. The Gold Update points to price's "support swath" (1490-1466) as having held to this juncture within the context of the young weekly parabolic Short trend. The U.S. Senate has yet to agree on a "rescue package".
20 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets components are in the black led by further large gains for Oil +6.4%, followed by Silver +5.8% and then the Spoo +4.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Silver and Copper exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Should this be the beginning of a material upside moves, watch the Market Trends page's "Baby Blues" for up-curls for both Oil and the Spoo; by their respective Market Values page readings, Oil is (in real-time) 21 points "low" and the Spoo 624 points "low". Thus far this session, the Spoo has traded right up to its Market Profiles page resistor at 2498 (2499 the actual high). Feb's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
19 Mar '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: At present by net changes, the weakest BEGOS Market is Copper -2.6% whist the firmest is Oil +1.6%; but that doesn't preclude there having been excessive ranginess during the session with robust EDTR tracings by Copper of 233% and both EuroCurrencies beyond 100%, the ECB having declared a €750 billion debt-purchase program. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate within the overall guise of extremely expanded EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. The ramped-up volatility is also expanding the list of qualifying studies (now numbering 46) on the Market Rhythms page. For the Econ Baro we've Mar's Philly Fed Index and Q4's Current Account Balance.
18 Mar '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: In true Black Swan form, all 8 BEGOS Market components are in the red, Oil -5.3% being the weakest, followed by Copper -4.4% and then the Spoo as locked "limit down" (-3.3% in measuring from the GLOBEX settle); volatility given the vast EDTRs is moderate with just Copper and the Bond exceeding 100% of their EDTRs. Going 'round the Market Values horn for the 5 primary components, per their respective valuation lines, in real-time the Bond is 14 points "high", the Euro is .0550 points "high", Gold is 30 points "low" (its 1490-1466 "support swath" having essentially held), Oil is 24 points "low" and the Spoo is 763 points "low". Feb's Housing Starts/Permits arrive for the Econ Baro. Oil's cac vol is moving from Apr into May.
17 Mar '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Gold/Silver ratio at present is 120.8x, well above anything recorded perhaps in centuries. Silver -5.8% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold -2.9%; only Oil +2.4% and the Spoo +2.0% (which had been locked "limit up" +5.0% for some 90 minutes earlier in the session before actually dipping into the red for a bit) are in the black; volatility -- again within the context of the vastly expanded EDTRs -- is moderate-to-robust, the rangiest of the bunch being the Euro with a 130% tracing and Oil with but a 45% tracing. 39 studies currently populate the Market Rhythms page. Due for the Econ Baro are Mar's NAHB Housing Index, Feb's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with Jan's Business Inventories. The FOMC begins its scheduled 2-day meeting; (said meeting was cancelled; there've been the two recent pro-active rate cuts and follow-up discussions).
16 Mar '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: A brutal start to the week for the BEGOS Markets unless one is the Bond +2.1% or EuroCurrencies: following the Fed's unprecedented Sunday 1.00% rate cute we find Silver -13.9%, Oil -9.7%, the Spoo locked "limit down" -5.0% and Copper -4.8%; volatility is mostly robust with only the Bond and Spoo not exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. The Gold Update cites five reasons for Gold's fallout, plus a technical fact that the weekly parabolic trend has flipped to Short: price presently at 1479, we've a "support swath" covering 1490-1466, (the session's low thus far 1465). Upon resumption in the Spoo's trading, watch for its cac vol moving from Mar into Jun. The Econ Baro looks to a notably reduced NY Empire State Index reading for Mar.
13 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: We've Friday firming for the BEGOS Markets with Oil +7.0% leading the pack followed by the Spoo +5.9%; the CME just imposed the +5.0% overnight trading halt as measured from their close (vs. the GLOBEX close which we use). Weakest is the Bond -1.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with the Bond, Spoo and Copper all exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. Per the Market Values page, the Bond is 18 points "high", the Euro 0.04 points "high", Oil 18 points "low" and the Spoo 656 points (including today's pop) "low". Gold is nearly at its smooth valuation line. EuroCurrencies' cac vol is rolling from Mar into Jun. An important Econ Baro data point due is Mar's UofM Sentiment (101 in Feb, 95 expected for Mar, 20-yr. average 87); due, too, is Feb's Ex/Im Pricing.
12 Mar '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil -6.6% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets followed by the Spoo -4.6%, (itself reaching the limit down -5% level); firmest is the Bond +2.4%; of note, Gold +0.2% has not received any material safe-haven bid after having (for the 3rd straight week ) tried to move above our 1675 forecast high for this year into the 1700s only to be sold back down, the present level being 1638. Session volatility is moderate -- again in the context of the expanded EDTRs per the Market Ranges page -- with only the Bond and Spoo exceeding 100% tracings. The ECB's turn for stimulus is on deck, and due for the Econ Baro today is Feb's PPI.
11 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Onto whirl-back-down Wednesday we go, highlighted by the BoE making an unscheduled 50bp rate cut; still we're seeing the reverse of yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' safe havens getting the bid with both the Bond and Silver +1.2%; weakest of the economically-driven components are Oil -4.2% followed by the Spoo -2.5%; volatility in the context of the vastly expanded EDTRs (see Market Ranges) is mostly moderate with only Oil having traced beyond 100% of its EDTR. Indeed, expanded volatility has enhanced the number of studies qualifying for the Market Rhythms page, with 32 on the list at present. Coming into the Econ Baro are Feb's CPI and Treasury Budget.
10 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Turnaround Tuesday finds gains in the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components and drains for those which are safe-havens. Recovering the most is Oil +12.6% (yesterday -27.3%) followed by the Spoo +4.9% (yesterday -8.4%); weakest is the Bond -1.9% followed by Gold -1.1%; volatility is mostly robust with the context that by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs are obviously well above their average levels of the past 12 months. Mind both the Market Values and Market Magnets pages for potential reversal indications from their respective extreme readings.
09 Mar '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil on the breakdown of OPEC+ brings a price war, opening down some -30%; at present 'tis -23.4% @ 31.84; the Spoo is locked "limit down" the standardized -5.0% level @ 2819; Gold did top 1700 to 1704 before yet again, as has been it wont, dropping to 1658; at present 'tis 1680; The Gold Update graphically details Gold's overhead structural congestion. The Bond +5.6% has driven the 30-year yield sub-1%. The EuroCurrencies, too, are the gainers, (as is the Yen +3.0%). Per our Earnings Page, for 1,986 Q4 reports, 56% improved over the like period of a year earlier (bettering the 52% for Q3), and specific to the S&P 500, 66% (vs. 62% for Q3).
06 Mar '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: Our Market Ranges page is worth a prudent glance as it reflects the volatility across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum. Indeed for the current session, 5 of the 8 components have well exceeded 100% EDTR tracings, the most being that by the Bond of 246%. The weakest of the bunch are Oil -4.5% followed by the Spoo -2.5%; firmest is the Bond +2.1% followed by the Swiss Franc +1.0%; Gold +0.9% has retested the year's high at 1691; still, Silver +0.2% is not keeping pace, the G/S ratio at 96.6x. Almost lost in it all, the Econ Baro looks to Feb's Payrolls data, plus Jan's Trade Deficit, Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit; and we put the wrap on Q4 Earnings Season.
05 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Compared to recent days -- and mind the Market Ranges page -- volatility this session (thus far) is modestly moderate with no one component of the BEGOS Markets exceeding a 100% EDTR tracing, notably Silver having just a 21% tracing following by Copper at 34%. Weakest by price change is Oil -1.7% and firmest is the Bond +1.0%. Pricing extremes from Market Values nonetheless remain near those stated yesterday, albeit the "faster" Market Magnet excesses are beginning to recoil. Coming into the Econ Baro today are Jan's Factory Orders and the revisions to Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
04 Mar '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: With only the Euro -0.2% in the red, the Spoo +2.2% is the BEGOS Markets' strong upside leader; volatility is again a bit reduced, Copper having traced just 39% of its EDTR and Silver only 42% of same; the Swiss Franc, (at present "unch") is the session's largest EDTR tracer at 111%. Per the Market Values page, extremes remain, the Bond on the heels of the unscheduled 50bp FedFunds cut some 13 points "high", the Euro 2 points "high", Gold 87 points "high", Oil 5 points "low" and the Spoo 210 points "low" even inclusive of its firm stance in this session. The Econ Baro awaits Feb's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Mar '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for Copper -0.8% and the Euro -0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, led by Oil +1.4%, Gold +0.8%, and Silver +0.5%; (the Spoo, +7 points from its GLOBEX settle, need be up some 18 points for the S&P to not open lower). Session volatility has slowed to moderate. At Market Trends, "Baby Blues" are in ascent for only the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. At Market Magnets, the 2 EuroCurrencies are at high extremes and the 2 PMs at low extremes. And at Market Values, vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines, the Bond is 10 points "high", the Euro 2 points "high", Gold 50 points "high", Oil 5 points "low" and the Spoo 200 points "low". The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Vehicle Sales.
02 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility remains robust for all 8 components, the rangiest being Copper (+0.8%) having traced 217% of its EDTR; least rangy is Gold (+1.1% and the firmest of the bunch) with a 123% EDTR tracing; the only two components in the red at present are Oil -0.4% and the Spoo -2.2%: because of the latter's +28-point move after stocks closed on Fri, adding that amount to the present change (-64 points) yields an idea of how the S&P itself may change at the open. The Gold Update graphically describes why price peaked (to this point) essentially at our 1675 forecast. Feb's ISM (Mfg) Index and Jan's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro. We're extending the collection of Q4 Earnings Season data for an additional week as a good bevy have yet to be reported.
28 Feb '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility ratchets up to robust across the entire BEGOS Markets spectrum, the rangiest and weakest component being Silver which is -3.2% and which has traced 222% of its EDTR; the Gold/Silver ratio is 94.8x, essentially a modern-day high, (and the PMs this week not holding their safe haven bid). 2nd weakest is Oil -1.4%; firmest is the Bond +0.9%. The overnight trading range of the Spoo is 101 points, price at present (2926, -0.8%) just below the middle of that range. The Euro has already met the upside expectation (1.1024) noted yesterday. Last Fri, the VIX settled at 17.08: in this session 'tis been as high as 47.15. The Econ Baro awaits Feb's Chi PMI, plus Jan's Personal Income/Spending and Fed inflation-favoured Core PCE Index.
27 Feb '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower led by Oil -2.1%, then the Spoo -0.5%, and Copper -0.4%; firmest is Silver +0.7% followed by the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc and the Euro itself both +0.6%; volatility remains moderate-to-robust, again with the context of expanding EDTRs. The Market Rhythms page currently lists 24 qualifying studies worthy of tracking. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" climbed out above their -80% axis such that we're seeking a run up toward the 1.1024 level (presently 1.0958). Jan's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro, along with the 2nd peek at Q4's GDP.
26 Feb '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' PMs and EuroCurrencies are to the upside, led by Gold +0.6%, plus Silver and the Swiss Franc both +0.2%; weakest is Oil -1.8% followed by Copper -0.6%; the Spoo has been oscillating across both sides of the fence; volatility continues as moderate-to-robust within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are expanding, notably for the Spoo, Gold and the Euro. The Gold/Silver ratio is 91.2x, essentially near an all-time high. Cac volume for both Silver and Copper is moving from Mar into May. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's New Home Sales.
25 Feb '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Following Gold reaching our 1675 forecast year's high, indeed trading up to 1691, price then spent much of yesterday's session oscillating 'round 1675 before fading lower; at present 'tis 1650, -0.7%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets. Firmest is Copper, +0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. On balance, the whole bunch are steadying after yesterday's big moves. At Market Values, the Spoo has finally returned down to its smooth valuation line, however Gold is running some 100 points "high": again, mind that page as well as that for Market Magnets. Feb's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
24 Feb '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets continue their coronavirus concerns with Oil -3.9%, the Spoo -2.2%, and Gold +2.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with 4 of the 8 components having traced beyond 100% of their EDTRs. Gold has exceeded our forecast high for this year of 1675 by trading up to 1691: The Gold Update graphically depicts the 1650-1700 zone as structurally replete with hem and haw from late 2011 into early 2013. Mind valuation and pricing extremes per the Market Values and Market Magnets pages. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) just broken their recent up-streak. This is the final week of Q4 Earnings Season.
21 Feb '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: Volatility is a bit more pent up for the BEGOS Markets, coronavirus measuring methodologies again changing: in trading 109% of its EDTR, Gold has nearly touched 1640, our forecast high for this year being 1675; as components' leaders, both Gold and Silver are +0.9%, their ratio at 88.5x. Oil is weakest, -1.6%. At Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 95 points "high"; we're mindful that the Dollar is putting in a relatively strong performance this year such that as coronavirus issues fade, Gold is subject to correcting significantly. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Existing Home Sales.
20 Feb '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' safe haven components are getting a mild bid with the Bond and Gold both +0.3%; to the downside, Copper -0.5% is weakest followed by Silver -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The PMs by their Market Magnets (per yesterday's close) appear "high" with Gold by +35 points and Silver by +0.62 points; by Market Values, the yellow metal itself is (in real-time) some 81 points "high"; the Spoo too remains now 145 points "high" even given this session's -0.2% pullback. The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Philly Fed Index and Jan's Leading Indicators.
19 Feb '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil +1.3% is the BEGOS Markets' leader, followed by the PMs with Silver +0.9% and Gold +0.5%; only the Swiss Franc and Copper are in the red, both just -0.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, although the Spoo has traced just 29% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to climbout for both Oil and Copper, whilst same for the Bond continue to fall. At Market Values, we've "high" extremes for the Bond (by +6 points), Gold (by +76 points), and the Spoo (by +146 points); on the "low" side we've the Euro (by -0.02 points) and Oil (by -4 points). Jan reports coming into the Econ Baro today are for the PPI and Housing Start/Permits. The FOMC's 28-29 Jan Meeting Minutes are released.
18 Feb '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: A negative turnaround in the two-day session for the Spoo -0.5% as the coronavirus issue shall materially impact revenues from the likes of AAPL; Oil -2.1% is weakest of the components whilst firmest is Silver +0.7% followed by the Bond +0.5%; combined sessions' volatility is moderate with only the Bond exceeding 100% of its EDTR. The EuroCurrencies continue their skidding, the Euro itself down to its lower level (1.0838) since late Mar '17. Gold (1591, just +4 points since Fri) remains rather muted despite the selling in the economically-driven BEGOS components. Due for the Econ Baro are Feb's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB Housing Index.
17 Feb '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: In accounting for the StateSide holiday we've a two-day session in play for the BEGOS Markets' start to the week; the firmest component is Copper +0.9% and the weakest is Oil -0.4%; volatility is light. The Gold Update cites price as being firm, yet lacking puff, the 1570s being a broad line-in-the-sand for sustaining the present rally (near term), the larger picture still targeting 1675 for this year. As well, the valuation of the S&P 500 remains at high extremes (our "live" P/E at 40.5x), but with recent moneyflow supporting the strong push into stocks. Oil's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) have climbed out above their -80% axis, however with price now in the 52s, the path to the 54s can be structurally resistive; cac volume is moving from Mar into Apr.
14 Feb '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag ahead of a bevy of incoming EconData with 8 reports hitting the Econ Baro as the session unfolds, including Feb's UofM Sentiment Survey, Jan's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Dec's Business Inventories. Oil +1.2% is firmest whilst Copper -0.6% is weakest; volatility is mostly light with the data barrage in the balance. At present, 21 technical studies qualify for the list on the Market Rhythms page, including Gold's 12-hr. Parabolics which in just having flipped to Long from an entry of 1579 point to a MRT of 1590: however, warily contra to this are the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" which have resumed falling at Market Trends.
13 Feb '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Out of the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components and into the safe havens as implementing a techier detection method for coronavirus infection has purportedly ramped up the number of cases. Oil is -1.2% followed by the Spoo -0.6% and Copper -0.4%; Silver is +0.9% followed by Gold +0.5% and the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate, (one might have expected robust). Still, given the on-balance push of primary BEGOS' entities, our Market Values page shows the Bond as some 5 points "high", Gold some 50 points "high", Oil some 7 points lows, and the Spoo some 130 points "high". Jan's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Feb '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets' components continue their rally with Oil +1.5%, Copper +0.9% and the Spoo +0.3%; weakest of the group is Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Copper's "Baby Blues" by the Market Trends page have curled up above their -80% axis such that price can make the run from the 2.60s to the 2.80s, (key level to first clear being 2.6225, present price is 2.6060); the red metal's 10-day Market Profile indicates trading support at both 2.58 and 2.56. Mind the soaring Spoo as per the Market Values page, price is (in real-time) nearly 150 points above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Treasury Budget; and Chair Powell completes his two-days of Congressional testimony, the Senate Banking Committee being on tap today.
11 Feb '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The session's bidding goes to the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components with Oil +1.6%, Copper +0.8% and the Spoo moving further into record-high territory +0.2%; the PMs are the weak links, but only marginally with both Gold and Silver -0.2%; volatility is light with EDTRs on the Market Ranges page just coming off recent peaks. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have moved below their +80% axis indicative of lower price levels ahead: there is structural support from the present 162s down to the 160s, failing which we'd look to the 158s. Chair Powell begins two-days of Congressional testimony, today being with the House Financial Services Committee.
10 Feb '20, 04:39 Pacific Time: Given the recent globals goings-on as noted in The Gold Update, the BEGOS Markets' start to the new week is fairly muted. To the upside we've Silver +0.5% followed by Copper +0.4%; to the downside we've Oil -0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is coming off its worst weekly net change (-1.2%) in 3 months, but that pales in comparison to price's upside strength coming out of Dec. Either way, the Gold/Silver ratio remains 'round high extremes at 88.7x; Gold at present (1575) is 50 points above its smooth valuation line per the Market Values page; however, 'tis fairly in sync with its Market Magnet. The bulk of this week's incoming EconData is due Thu/Fri.
07 Feb '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4%, the BEGOS Markets range from "unch" for Gold down to -1.3% for Copper; Oil is -0.8% and the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo finished yesterday 71 points above its Market Magnet and in real-time even with price at present -13 points, 'tis 115 points above its smooth valuation line at Market Values; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 40.6x; all those extremes noted, the S&P's Moneyflow has been more than supportive of the Index's up move; with 298 of the 500 constituents having reported their Q4 earnings, 66% are better year-over-year. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Payrolls data plus Dec's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
06 Feb '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The S&P looks to further its move into record-high territory come the stock market's open, the Spoo +0.4%; leading to the upside is Silver +0.9% followed by Gold +0.5%; only the Swiss Franc -0.1% is in the red; volatility is moderate. 31 studies at present populate the Market Rhythms list as recent volatility provides for signals following-though. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are (in real-time) curling upward for the 1st time in nearly a month, whilst those for the Bond are giving an initial drop of having peaked. Q4's Productivity comes due for the Econ Baro.
05 Feb '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: We've more upside follow-through for the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components with Oil +2.6%, Copper +1.5% and the Spoo +0.7%; there are "reports that scientists have developed an effective drug against the fast-spreading coronavirus"; weakest of the bunch are the Bond and Swiss France, both -0.3%; volatility remains moderate-to-robust. Note at the S&P's Moneyflow page the leading aspect of the flow having been more positive than the Index's recent peregrinations of late regardless of direction. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have curled up above their -80% axis suggestive of higher price levels: there is structural resistance 'round the 1.1130 area. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus Dec's Trade Deficit.
04 Feb '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Recuperation continues for the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components with Copper +2.0%, Oil +1.5% and the Spoo +1.1%; even Silver +0.3% is siding with that group; the balance of the bunch are lower, led by the Bond -0.5%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. The S&P's correction from its 22 Jan intra-day high has been as much as -3.7% with more that half of that since recovered come today's open given the present stance of the Spoo. Per Market Values, Oil is 10 points below its smooth valuation line whilst the Bond is 7 points above its like reference. Dec's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
03 Feb '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are showing some reversal of last week's direction as the economically-driven components are a bit higher with Copper +0.7%, the Spoo + 0.3% and Oil + 0.1%, (the latter having been down -2.3% earlier in the session); weakest amongst the safe havens are Silver -1.4% followed by Gold -0.6% and the Bond -0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with all three elements of the metals triumvirate tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's safe-haven strength in countering January's uncertainties. The Econ Baro kicks off the week with Jan's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, plus Dec's Construction Spending.
31 Jan '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday, the economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Oil -0.9%, Copper -0.8%, and the Spoo -0.5%; and again the upside safe haven leaders changes are more muted, led by the Bond and Gold, both +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Notable Market Value extreme readings from their respective smooth valuation lines include the Bond being 6 points "high", Gold 65 points "high", and Oil 8 points "low". 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, highlighted by Jan's Chi PMI, Dec's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus Q4's Employment Cost Index. Brexit arrives as the UK technically withdraws from the EU with 11 months of business and trading negotiating in the balance.
30 Jan '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The coronavirus is given credit for the fallout in the economically-driven elements of the BEGOS Markets, Oil -1.7%, the Spoo -0.7% and Copper -0.6%; Silver +1.2% leads the most on the upside, the other safe haven gains actually be quite muted, at most +0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both the Spoo and Copper have traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, only the Bond's "Baby Blues" are in ascent as they fall across the balance of the 7 other components. Today brings the Econ Baro's first peek at Q4 GDP.
29 Jan '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag with Gold +0.3% leading to the upside: the yellow metal's cac volume is rolling from Feb into Apr; weakest are Oil and the EuroCurrencies, all -0.2%; volatility again is moderate. 'Tis rare from the Market Rhythms page that we get a 10 for 10 study having reached at least $1,000/cac every time, but that is the stance as presently listed for Gold's daily MACD, the 10 instances beginning back on 31 May. Silver by its declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) reached our structural support level of 17.42; they continue to decline too for Gold which is itself is stalling more than falling, the Gold/Silver ratio up to 89.9x(!). The S&P's "live" P/E is 40.7x(!) For the Econ Baro, today brings Dec's Pending Home Sales. No rate change expected from the FOMC.
28 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's -1.6% S&P loss, (which on a % basis ties it with the 08 Oct loss as noted in The Gold Update), 'tis a bit premature to call this a "Turnaround Tuesday", however the Spoo is +0.4%, bettered only by Oil +0.5%; weakest (after being firmest 'round this time yesterday) is Silver -0.9%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the fall of the PMs' "Baby Blues" continues, but per yesterday's comment at less steep a rate. Given the coronavirus issue vis-à-vis China, the selling in Copper finds it extremely below its Market Magnet, albeit the red metal at present is only -0.1%. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Consumer Confidence and Dec's Durable Orders.
27 Jan '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Whilst the coronavirus can be a catalyst to sell an extremely overvalued S&P, our take is ultimately 'twill be the "Look Ma No Earnings" scenario that really sets off the inevitable crash, the S&P's "live" P/E at 40.0x. With safe havens nonetheless getting the bid within the BEGOS Markets, we've Oil -2.8%, Copper -1.9%, and the Spoo -1.3%; firmest is Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update reiterates the declining state (per Market Trends) of the PMs "Baby Blues" thus suggesting our cited lower levels, however in real-time their rate of descent now is being curtailed. Dec's New Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro.
24 Jan '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The session's up-pairing to this juncture is the Spoo +0.3% and Silver +0.2%; the other 6 BEGOS Markets all are in the red, the weakest being Oil and Copper, both -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The PMs are putting in a rather narrow trading week instead of seeing their prices fall as suggested by the declining "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page: indeed in real-time, Silver's blue dots have fallen below their 0% axis line; those for Gold whilst also dropping are 'round the +50% level. The Econ Baro has already completed a fairly net neutral week; next week ramps up the incoming pace of Q4 earnings reports.
23 Jan '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.3% and Spoo +0.1% are in the black for the BEGOS Markets; weakest is Silver -1.1%, followed by Oil -0.5%, Copper -0.4% and Gold -0.3%; with Silver trading to its lowest level (17.59) since 24 Dec, the PMs could well be en route to the aforementioned structural support levels of 1521 for Gold and 17.42 for Silver given the ongoing breakdown of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). Session volatility is moderate. Oil's selloff over the past 2 weeks finds price (at present 55.82) 5 full points below the valuation line at Market Value and better than 3 points below its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Leading Indicators.
22 Jan '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.4%, the other BEGOS Markets are "unch" to lower, the weakest being Oil and the Swiss Franc, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are accelerating their falls such that the notion in the current Gold Update for lower price levels near-term remains quite viable, (as therein noted by structural support 1521 for Gold and 17.42 for Silver). Again per yesterday's comment, the Market Values page continues to show both Gold and the Spoo as "high" (in real-time respectively by 45 and 107 points) above their smooth valuation lines. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets now finds Oil -1.8% (concerns over the Libyan production halt waning) followed by Copper -1.5%; the balance of the bunch range from the Spoo -0.3% to the Bond +0.2%; volatility as expected has progressed to moderate-to-robust, Oil and Copper have well-exceeded (given 2 days) 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Market Values extremes find the Spoo some 93 points "high" even given its pullback at present and Gold some 48 points "high" as well. Q4 Earnings Season picks up the pace this week, the average year-over-year improvement thus far for S&P 500 components being +3.5%, (essentially infinitesimal toward bridging the gap from the "live" P/E of 41.4x to the FinMedia forward P/E of 18.7x).
20 Jan '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Stateside physical bourses are closed for MLK Day but the BEGOS Markets are gliding along fairly split, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo all off just a tad and the metals triumvirate up by no more than same; a military blockade in Libya halted activity at two large production facilities, in turn having Oil (now on the Mar cac) gapping higher by +1.3% only to have said gap since filled back down such that price is now +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, which ought pick up as this session extends into Tue. The Gold Update looks near-term for a yellow metal dip to 1521 and a white metal dip to 17.42 given the fallout in both PMs "Baby Blues (see Market Trends) below their respective +80% axes. The "live" P/E of the S&P is at an unconscionable 41.3x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.4x.
17 Jan '20, 04:37 Pacific Time: Only the BEGOS Markets' Bond -0.4% and EuroCurrencies (both -0.2%) are in the red, the upside being led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +0.8%, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.4% -- despite which even Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Still, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing below their +80% axis such that we expect to see lower price levels near-term, as already has been suggested for Silver. Gold (presently 1558) shows dominant trading support by its Market Profile at 1552, failing which there is structural support sub-1536 in the 1520s. The climbing Econ Baro finishes the week with Dec's Housing Start/Permits, IndProd/CapUtil, and Jan's UofM Sentiment Survey.
16 Jan '19, 06:20 Central Euro Time: (In transit)- Early on the BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of a busy session for incoming econ data. Weakest is Silver -0.4% whilst firmest is Oil +0.2%; volatility as expected is light to this point, albeit Copper has already traced 54% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" continue their descent and those for Gold have (in real-time) curled down to their borderline +80% axis; per Market Values, Gold continues to hover some 50 point above its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, Dec's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing, and Nov's Business Inventories.
15 Jan '19, 08:51 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on low-to-moderate volatility, the safe havens getting a mild bid and the economically-driven components coming off by just a bit. Firmest are Gold +0.3% and Silver +0.2%; weakest is Copper -0.5%, followed by Oil and the Spoo, both -0.1%. Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed breaking below their +80% axis suggesting we'll see price move near-term down into the aforementioned 17.20-17.10 zone; again, those for Gold look to soon follow suit. Today brings both the Phase 1 USA/China trade deal signing as well as the Fed's "Beige Book". Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 10:01 Central Euro Time: Save for just mild increases in the Bond and EuroCurrencies, the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver -1.1% followed by Oil -0.4% and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have broken below their +80% axis, suggestive of a move lower into structural support 'round the 17.20-17.10 zone, (price currently 17.75); those for Gold are curling down, albeit have yet to breech the +80% axis; still, by Market Values, Gold is some 50 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's CPI.
13 Jan '19, 08:35 Central Euro Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets downside losers in commencing the new week, Silver -0.7.% and Gold -0.6%; The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's price having yet again gone through a geopolitical rewind as is it wont, spiking up on such events only to return from whence it came. The firmest components are Copper +0.4% and the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is mostly light to this early point as only Gold has exceeded tracing 50% of its EDTR, which per Market Ranges has of course notably widened. 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro. Note, too, that the P/E for the S&P has topped 40x: something to mind as Q4 Earnings Season unfolds.
10 Jan '19, 13:20 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of Dec's payrolls data. Firmest is the Spoo +0.3% whilst weakest are Gold and the Swiss Franc, both -0.2%; volatility is again light. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to drop swiftly; those for the EuroCurrencies and the metals triumvirate are in various stages of decline. Gold (presently 1551) is just a point below broad-based trading support (see Market Profiles) at 1552; only 1518 has more dominant support volume. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Nov's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Jan '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets notable losers, Silver -1.3% and Gold -0.6%; both metals having traced better than 100% of their EDTRs; otherwise, volatility is actually light within the context that Market Ranges generally have been on the increase; the session's upside leader is the Spoo, +0.4%. By Market Values, Oil has (in real-time) returned down to its smooth valuation line, whilst Gold is some 50 points "high" and the Bond some 5 points "low". And by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) dropping precipitately from having been above their +80% axis, suggestive of lower prices ahead such as to test support structure in the mid-59s to mid-57s, (price currently 59.88)
08 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The geopolitical flareup saw Gold spike to as high as 1613 (now 1580) and the Spoo plummet to as low as 3181 (now 3241), tensions now "said" to be "de-escalating". At present, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way with (as was the case 'round now yesterday) no one component changed by more than 0.3% either way; volatility is obviously robust (and then some) with all but one component (the Euro) tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR, and notably Gold, the Spoo and Oil each exceeding 250%. Meanwhile, due for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP jobs data and Nov's Consumer Credit.
07 Jan '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: As geopolitical news wanes a bit, so does the ranginess of the BEGOS Markets, no one component at present changed by more than 0.3% in either direction: -0.3% is the Swiss Franc and at the opposite extreme +0.2% are both Copper and Gold; the latter had traded as high as 1590 yesterday, having since fallen some 33 points to this session's low thus far of 1557; only the yellow metal has traced in excess of 100% (112%) of its EDTR, volatility for the balance of the bunch being moderate. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's ISM(SVC) Index plus Nov's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. Q4 Earnings Season is beginning.
06 Jan '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: Further follow-through from Fri's directional moves highlight the start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, with Silver +2.0%, Gold +1.5% and Oil +1.2%, but the Spoo -0.5% and Copper -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold has traded 229% of its EDTR, reaching as high as 1590, just 85 points below our forecast high for the entirety of 2020 at 1675 as further detailed in The Gold Update. Per Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 86 points above its smooth valuation line, however we've had readings within the past year of deviations well exceeding 100 points in both Jun and Aug; Oil's present deviation is +5 points, a range it too exceeded during 2019.
03 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The event in Baghdad has the BEGOS Markets even more on the move than typically we see in starting a new year: firmest is Oil +3.9% followed by Gold +1.2%; Copper is weakest -2.0% followed by the Spoo -1.3%; volatility is robust, indeed 4 components having traced more than 200% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The S&P 500 ("live" P/E 40.1x) is obviously far overdue for a decline; with an eye toward Gold, we note that price rising on geo-political events has a tendency to return from whence it came in the ensuing days as the lead story falls from primary focus. Dec's ISM(Mfg) Index, Vehicle Sales and Nov's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro, the balance of the day featuring FedSpeak and the FOMC's Minutes from its 10-11 Dec meeting.
02 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo and Copper, both +0.4%, are the new year's upside leaders, followed by Gold, Silver and the Bond all +0.3%; the EuroCurrencies and Oil are slightly weaker; volatility is moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) did not quite turn the upside corner come Tue's close, remaining below the -80% axis; however, those for Copper in curling lower confirmed settling under their +80% axis such that price may come off in the near term. Thanks to Investing.com for including in their 2020 Outlook our call for Gold 1675 and the notion of being Short the S&P by Nov's StateSide election.
31 Dec '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed for this final session of 2019, all components to settle at their usual times, (despite early closures/holidays elsewhere 'round the globe). Weakest is Oil -1.4% followed by Copper -0.2%; the PMs are the upside leaders with Silver +0.8% and Gold +0.5%; volatility is moderate, although Gold has traced 104% of its EDTR. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics reversed to Short yesterday nixing our 158^09 MRT: however, per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) climbing out above their -80% axis which if confirmed at today's close suggests higher prices ahead. Dec's Consumer Confidence completes the Econ Baro for the year. Bonne Année!
30 Dec '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: With the exceptions of the Bond -0.6% and Gold -0.1%, the BEGOS Markets are starting the week to the upside, led by Oil +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update selects our forecast high in 2020 for the yellow metal at 1675 and notes that by M2 currency debasement (even as adjusted for Gold's supply increase) that valuation for the 1st time has crossed above the $3,000/oz. threshold; as well, the core technical study of Gold's weekly parabolics has flipped from Short back to Long. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Chi PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
27 Dec '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: A reversal of fortune thus far for the BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate with Silver and Copper both -0.5% and Gold - 0.1%; the balance of the bunch range from the Bond being "unch" to higher ground for the Euro and Swiss Franc, both +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, with the 2 EuroCurrencies well-exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics triggered to the Longside yesterday (from a price of 156^15, price at present 156^25) for an MRT of 158^09 (or more conservatively 157^21); the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning the curl upward, albeit are below their -80% axis (at -84% in real-time). The Spoo +0.3% ought have the S&P open at a still further record high.
26 Dec '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: More gains for the metals triumvirate of the BEGOS Markets with Silver +1.2% trading and above 18 for the 1st time since 05 Nov, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.4% as noted having regained 1500; volatility again is ranging from light-to-robust, Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, the Spoo tracing but 20%, noting that key European and Asian bourses are closed for this trade date. Silver's robust performance in recent days now finds the Gold/Silver ratio down to 83.5x, (still extremely high by historical standards). Both PMs are "high" relative to their respective Market Magnets, but such is a characteristic of swift rise.
24 Dec '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate of the BEGOS Markets is the upside leader into this shortened session (all components closing within the 10:15-10:45 Pacific time frame): Silver is +1.0%, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.3%; the only downsider is the Euro -0.1%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with just a 19% EDTR tracing to robust for Silver with a 113% tracing. The Gold Update of 30 Nov queried "Shall Santa Gift Gold at 1500?": price this session has traded as high as 1496, so 'tis right close. Either way, a most Merry Christmas to Everyone everywhere! St. Nick comes through: Gold 1500 just traded at 07:11 PT. Cheers!
23 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black to kick off the week led by Silver +0.9% followed by Gold and the Spoo both +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold has traded as high as 1489, nicely on the heels of the current Gold Update entitled "Gold Need Dial In a Little More Power" after price put in its narrowest trading week of the last 14 years, still with the potential to regain 1500 to finish the year. By Market Trends, the only component in a linreg downtrend is the Bond. 'Tis a very light week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, today bringing in Nov's Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
20 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: As the final full trading week of the year draws toward a close, as was the case yesterday we've little change either way in the BEGOS Markets, most being a tad mildly lower, save for Silver +0.1%; weakest is Copper -0.4% followed by Oil -0.3%; again volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Ranges, the EDTRs for all 8 components are narrowing; by Market Magnets, most of the bunch's prices are inside deviations recorded across the last 3 months, the Spoo and Oil appearing somewhat "high" as do they at Market Values. Metrics for the Econ Baro include Nov's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus the final read on Q3 GDP.
19 Dec '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets continue on in their comparatively muted mode, the largest changers at present being the Bond and Silver, both -0.4%; the balance of the bunch are +0.1% to -0.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P's 3-day trading range of 14.85 points is the narrowest since 09 Aug 2018. The Spoo per its Market Profile shows 3199 as the most dominantly-traded price in the past 2 weeks, under which there is a dearth of support until 3173, followed by another until the 1351-1340 range. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Philly Fed Index, Nov's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Q3's Current Account Balance.
18 Dec '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Both the Bond and Spoo are +0.1%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Copper -0.4% followed by the Euro -0.3%; volatility again is mostly light and by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs either are stalling or outright dropping. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have risen above their +80% axis, confirming the linreg trend as consistent; those for the EuroCurrencies and Oil are stretching upward to achieve same. And by Market Values, the two components most distance from their smooth valuation lines are Oil (some 3 points "high") and the Spoo (some 75 points "high").
17 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Changes for the BEGOS Markets are fairly subtle: up the most is Oil +0.3%, the weakest component being the "unch" Spoo; volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver have turned positive, however those for the Bond are accelerating to the downside; currently 157^16, the Bond has Profile trading support in the 157^00-to-156^28 zone. Our "live" P/E for the S&P has reached the 38.0x level. Oil's cac vol is rolling from Jan into Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's Housing Starts/Permits and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
16 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.2% is down to start the BEGOS Markets' new week (and the final full one of the year) the upside leaders being Copper +0.7%, Oil +0.5%, Silver +0.4% and the Spoo +0.3% such that the S&P 500 may open at a fresh all-time high, our "live" P/E at 37.4x; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is "unch" notwithstanding The Gold Update citing the track to 1500 by year's end being in order; the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.7x. The Econ Baro has a busy week beginning today with Dec's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
13 Dec '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Fundamentals are afoot in fostering BEGOS Markets directions given a China "Phase 1" deal purportedly being inked and Johnson being victorious in the UK: up the most of the components is Oil +1.0% followed by the Euro 0.4%, the latter gapping to open above its page's "high if an up day" guesstimate; off the most is Copper -0.2%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo by its EDTR tracing of 39% to robust for the Swiss Franc with a 129% tracing. Cac vol for the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is moving from Dec into Mar. Today's metrics for the Econ Baro include Nov's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing, plus Oct's Business Inventories.
12 Dec '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: We've another fairly muted session for the BEGOS Markets, this time ahead of the ECB and Lagarde's 1st post-policy presser thereto. Oil +0.3% is the firmest component whilst weakest is Copper -0.4%, mirror changes to both their stances 'round this time yesterday. Copper's Market Magnet is nearly 10¢ below present price, the red metal appearing as at an extreme "high" by that measure. As the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower for both Gold and Silver, their prices nonetheless are fighting to stay firm. Due for the Econ Baro is Nov's PPI.
11 Dec '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted ahead of what (by Fed Funds futures pricing) shall be a "no-move" by the central bank; firmest is Copper +0.4% and weakest is Oil -0.3%; volatility is mostly light. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both PMs have turned south without nearing their +80% axes: whilst this a technical negative, we still (per The Gold Update) look to Gold's 1454-1434 "support shelf" to hold through year-end, indeed seeing 1500 en route. At present amongst all 8 components, only Silver's 21-day linreg trend is down, the Gold/Silver ratio ever-high at 88.1x. Nov's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
10 Dec '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: We find the BEGOS Markets mixed with the metals triumvirate to the upside, Copper +0.4% and as was the case at this time yesterday Gold and Silver both +0.3%; to the downside are Oil and the Spoo, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still falling: notably, the Spoo's recent rally (from 3070 up to 3151) did not reach the all-time high (3158); note, too, that the same measure for both Gold and Silver is running out of upside puff. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 revisions for Productivity (initially negative) and Unit Labor Costs.
09 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week with the economically-driven components on the outs, the best bids going to Gold and Silver, both +0.3%, and the Bond +0.2%; weakest are Oil -0.8%, Copper -0.6% and the Spoo -0.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price maintaining its stance above the 1454-1434 "support shelf" despite Fri's fallout. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) continuing their climbout above the 0% axis, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to positive; and by Market Values, Gold is some 22 points below its smooth valuation line. Silver remains significantly attractive relative to Gold, the Gold/Silver ratio at 88.0x.
06 Dec '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Ahead of Nov's payrolls data the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, bookmarked with the Bond, the Spoo and Copper all +0.2% and Oil -0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Gold/Silver ratio is 87x such as we saw this past August; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 36.0x: both those ratios are of course in rarefied high air. By Market Values, the Spoo (which had been some 100 points "high" per its smooth valuation line some two weeks ago) is still 50 points "high"; and by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are swiftly falling. Also due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Oct's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
05 Dec '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Again getting the bid are the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components with Oil +0.7%, followed by the Spoo +0.4% and Copper +0.3%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility has swung to being mostly light. Depending on one's charting, the much of the bunch appear to be plodding through near-term technical encumbrance: notably, the Bond, the Spoo and Copper are all trading near the mid-point of their respective 10-day Market Profiles. Still there's a good dose of data due for the Econ Baro into week's end, today including Oct's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
04 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher led by Oil +1.3%, Copper +0.7% and the Spoo +0.5%; the balance of the bunch are all in the red, but not severely so, the weakest being the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold not only hit the 1480.3 MRT noted yesterday, but this session's high (1489.9) is essentially 10 points from the 1500 level cited from "Santa" in the current edition of the Gold Update. The Spoo yesterday confirmed its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) dropping below their +80% level and they're lower still today: we see some structural support in the 3055-3021 area. The Econ Baro looks to Nov's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Dec '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate are book-ending the BEGOS Markets: both Gold and Silver are +0.5% whilst Copper is -0.5%; the Spoo is lower too at -0.3%, (the latter 2 'tis said in response to a China trade deal perhaps being postponed until after the StateSide election). Session volatility is moderate. Gold's daily MACD confirmed a Long signal, (from yesterday's settle at 1470.3), for an MRT of 1480.3, (high thus far 1476.7). Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) dropping below the +80% level, indicative of lower prices ahead. Nov's Vehicle Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
02 Dec '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil +2.1% is the BEGOS Markets firm leader to begin Dec, yet the only other 2 components in the black -- and barely that -- are the Spoo and Swiss Franc, both +0.1%; weakest are the Bond and Silver, both -0.9%, followed by Gold -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond having traded 150% of its EDTR and moreover achieving our MRT of 157^20. Despite Gold being off, The Gold Update makes the case for the yellow metal finishing above 1500 by year-end. Due Econ Baro are Nov's ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending.
29 Nov '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: As the Fri session continues we find the only BEGOS Markets not lower are Gold +0.1% and the Bond "unch"; adding to its losses is Copper -1.2% with the balance of the bunch only off by as much as -0.2% at present; Copper's tracing of its EDTR has expanded to 113%; volatility for this 2-day session otherwise moderate. The Bond's 12-hr Parabolics continue their fresh Short course as we look to an MRT of 157^20 (Mar cac). Despite the Spoo being lower, it is 98 points above its smooth valuation line on the Market Values page; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 37.5x. 'Tis an early settle today for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo at 10:15 PT and the Metals and Oil at 10:45 PT.
28 Nov '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: StateSide Thanksgiving finds the BEGOS Markets weaker on balance, this session for Fri settle with Copper -0.6%, Oil -0.5% and the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly light, albeit Copper and the Spoo have respectively traced 89% and 72% of their EDTRs in the China "off-again, on-again" trading sentiment. The week's data for the Econ Baro is all in place, pushing the measure up to its highest reading since 15 Oct. Cac vol for the Bond is moving from Dec into Mar for which we've a fresh MRT of 157^20 (from an entry of 159^10) per the 12-hr. Parabolics having confirmed flipping to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT. Trading halt today is from 10:00 PT until 15:00 PT.
27 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Down with the BEGOS Markets safe havens and up with the economically-driven components, led by Oil +0.5%, Copper +0.3%, and the Spoo +0.1%; the PMs are weakest with Silver -0.3% and Gold -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The metals triumvirate cac vols are moving from Dec into Feb for Gold and into Mar for Silver and Copper. With StateSide physical bourses closed tomorrow (and only open for an abbreviated Fri session), the Econ Baro gets a dose of 9 incoming metrics today including Nov's Chi PMI, Oct's Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE, Durables and Pending Home Sales, plus the 1st revision to Q3 GDP. The BEGOS Markets will open as usual this afternoon, (then with at 5-hour trading halt tomorrow until 15:00 PT).
26 Nov '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo presently "unch" at 3132 did an overnight loopty-loo in swiftly zooming up to 3145 on promising China "Phase 1" deal talk and then zipped back down; the firmest BEGOS Market is Oil +0.4% followed by Silver +0.3%, the balance of the bunch being flat to marginally up; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Values the Spoo is 94 points "high" above its smooth valuation line and at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" have steadied their mild decline, hovering 'round the +90% level; those for the Swiss Franc are accelerating lower within their already linreg negative trend. The Econ Baro looks to Nov's Consumer Confidence and Oct's New Home Sales.
25 Nov '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Only Copper +0.4% and the Spoo +0.2% are in the black to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest component being Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility light-to-moderate. The Gold Update's being entitled "Higher Gold Ahead" is the thrust of our missive as we look to the 1454-1434 "support zone" to hold, meaning the worst of the present parabolic Short trend is in place with a shot a price closing the year above 1500. Q3 Earnings Season concludes with only 52% of the 2,105 reports bettering their bottom lines vs. Q3 of a year ago, for the weakest year-over-year quarterly improvement since Q1 of 2016.
22 Nov '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: In a turnabout from this time yesterday, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, the firmest being Gold and Copper, both +0.5%, followed by Silver and the Bond, both +0.4%; volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 28% tracing of its EDTR to robust for the Euro with a 127% tracing, the latter moving about in response to the 1st key address by new ECB President Christine Lagarde. The Spoo by Market Values is 83 points above its smooth valuation line and by Market Trends the "Baby Blues" have slipped sub-90% (reaching down sub-80% would portend lower levels ahead). The Econ Baro wraps its week with the revision to Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey; and today is the final day of a comparatively mediocre Q3 Earnings Season.
21 Nov '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Save for the Euro +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -0.8% followed by Silver -0.4%; volatility marches onward at the moderate pace we've been seeing of late. The Spoo (at present 3108) is well off its overnight low of 3091; however per yesterday's comment, the Spoo by Market Values is still 85 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line, whilst at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" (albeit still above +90%) are (also in real-time) dipping the most in at least the past month. 'Tis the Econ Baro's busiest day for this week, reports including Nov's Philly Fed Index, plus Oct's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales.
20 Nov '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.7% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Bond +0.4% and then Copper +0.3%; weakest are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo, all -0.2%; volatility continues to run at a moderate pace. The Bond's MRT of 159^28 has been met. The Spoo after making an all-time high yesterday has in this session traded below the lows of both the prior 2 sessions, suggesting a top may be in place: at Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 104 points above its smooth valuation line; the live P/E of the S&P is 36.8x. The FOMC Minutes from the 29-30 Oct meeting are due at 11:00 PT.
19 Nov '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets strength to this point is with Silver and Copper, both +0.5%, whilst to the weak side we've Oil -0.7%; volatility is moderate and by the Market Ranges page most components have slowed the narrowing of their respective EDTRs. The MRT on the Bond for 159^28 remains intact as the 12-hr. Parabolics travel their Longside course; at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" whist still sub-0% are accelerating their climb toward that axis; and at Market Values, the Bond is better than 3 points below its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Nov '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets: we've the PMs leading to the downside with Silver -0.9% and Gold -0.6%, (as is Oil -0.6%); The Gold Update graphically shows the resilient character of the 1454-1434 "support shelf" which finally was tested last week within the overall parabolic Short trend now entering its 10th week. Firmer this session are both the Spoo +0.2% and Euro +0.1%. Volatility is maintaining a moderate pace. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics continue to support our MRT for 159^28. Oil's cac vol is moving from Dec into Jan. And Q3 Earnings Season moves into its final week: 'tis the weakest year-over-year comparative Season since Q1 of 2016.
15 Nov '19, 04:10 Pacific Time: In a reversal from this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mostly lower with Silver to the downside by -0.8% followed by Oil -0.4%; only mildly gaining are Copper, the Spoo and the Euro; volatility continues running at a moderate pace. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics yesterday confirmed (at 12:00 PT) a flip to Long from an entry level of 158^21 (presently 158^07) with an MRT of 159^28, (which by the current Market Rhythms list seeks a gain of $1,200/cac from the entry level). A big dose of data hits the Econ Baro today, including Nov's NY State Empire Index, Oct's Retail Sales, IndProd/CapUtil and Ex/Im Pricing, and Sep's Business Inventories.
14 Nov '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, led by Oil +0.7% and then Copper and the Bond, both +0.5%; the weak links are the Euro and the Spoo, both -0.1%; volatility remains moderate. As noted back on 05 Nov and as listed on the current Market Rhythms list, Gold's 4-hr. Moneyflow has been regularly been producing signals with attractive follow-through. At Market Trends, save for Oil and the Spoo, the other 6 components all are in 21-day linreg downtrends. And at Market Values, the Spoo still shows as some 100 points "high" above its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro is Oct's PPI.
13 Nov '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've the opposite of Mon's session with the safe havens of the BEGOS Markets to the upside led by Silver +1.2%, the Bond +0.8% and Gold +0.6%; the economically-driven components are all lower with Oil -0.7%, the Spoo -0.3% and Copper -0.2%; volatility again is moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" of all 8 markets are falling, (including barely in real-time those for the Spoo, albeit they're very still high, basically in their ceiling crawl at +95%). Metrics for the Econ Baro kick into gear for the remainder of the week, today bringing in Oct's CPI and Treasury Budget.
12 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are lightly lower led by Silver -0.5% and then the Swiss Franc and Copper, both -0.3%; the only net gainer at present is Oil +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's EDTR by Market Ranges is down to 22 points, the narrowest since early May; again by Market Values, the Spoo is 100 points "high", (as of course is the "live" P/E of the S&P at 33.3x); and by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are crawling across the ceiling, but those for Oil appear to be running out of upside puff, and those for Copper are now accelerating lower, all 3 of those markets having been in positive upside correlation. Trump gives a luncheon address at the ECNY.
11 Nov '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Out with the economically-driven markets and in with the safe havens: weakest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil -1.7% followed by Copper -1.1%; firmest is Silver +0.5% followed by Gold and the Bond both +0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites price having all but reached the 1454-1434 support shelf in trading on Fri as low as 1457, our sense being this is about as far down as price shall travel within the course of the still Short weekly parabolic trend. As well, the S&P 500 remains extremely expensive by any and all valuations at which we look, including the Spoo by the Markets Value page being 100 points above its smooth valuation line. And by the Earnings Season page, with some 1900 reports recorded, just 53% have bettered Q3 of a year ago, similar to the pace seen for Q2 and Q1.
08 Nov '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red which (even without looking) one knows the Dollar is firmer on the session. Off the most is Silver -2.0% followed by Oil -1.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is 87.3x(!) Gold is on its session low of 1461: recall from recent editions of The Gold Update that 1454-1434 is the support zone for we've watched during this current weekly parabolic Short trend. The Euro by its descending "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) has reached our soft targeted area of the mid-1.10s (this session's low 1.10510). With but a couple of weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, 418 of the S&P 500's constituents have reported with 62% improving over Q3 of a year ago, (73% having "beaten" estimates). The Econ Baro looks to Nov's UofM Sentiment read and Sep's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The otherwise docile BEGOS Markets were awakened overnight by China's having "agreed" with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases, Oil in turn now +1.2% and Copper +1.0%, with Silver -0.9% and the Bond -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond tracing 114% of its EDTR and Copper 106% of its EDTR. The Euro's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue to fall, price overnight touching down to 1.10800. The Gold/Silver ratio is back up to 85.0x and our "live" P/E for the S&P is 34.2x. Due late in the session for the Econ Baro is Sep's Consumer Credit.
06 Nov '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Quietude has returned to the BEGOS Markets: weakest is Silver -0.4%, firmest is the Bond +0.2, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have accelerated their downside pace, price both yesterday and today having dipped into the aforementioned 1.10s with the mid-1.10s still a reasonable target area; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are rolling over without having achieved much upside travel, (i.e. not reaching the key +80% area), so that is a near-term negative: again both Gold and Silver are in the midst of weekly parabolic Short trends. As well, the Spoo looks to be running out of puff, notably with both Oil and Copper a bit weaker this session. For the Econ Baro we've Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 Nov '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are to the upside, led by Oil and Copper both +0.7%; the safe havens are in the loss column, led by the Bond -0.6% and then Gold -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, however in the context that per the Market Ranges page our EDTRs have been narrowing. From the list of current qualifiers at the Market Rhythms page, Gold's 4-hr. Moneyflow study has been notably attractive. And per Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have today (in real-time) lurched lower in support of our notion for price seeking the mid-1.10s, (present = 1.11395). The Econ Baro looks to Oct's ISM(Svc) Index and Sep's Trade Deficit.
04 Nov '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are displaying a bit more life than were they 'round this time during much of last week. Oil +1.1% is the firmest of the bunch, followed by the Spoo +0.5%; weakest is the Bond -0.6%, followed by the Swiss Franc -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 81% and Gold the narrowest tracer at 36%. The Gold Update questions price moving above the 1526 into the balance of the year, or if the ongoing (albeit shallow) weekly parabolic Short trend has more duration to run. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) crossing below our key +80% level; those for the Euro continue to wane, but just mildly. Sep's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
01 Nov '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Econ Baro effected by 19 incoming metrics this week alone slides into Friday with Oct's payrolls data, ISM(Mfg) Index, Vehicle Sales, and Sep's Construction Spending in the balance. Ahead of it all, the BEGOS Markets (after a more robust day yesterday) are little changed either way with Oil +0.4% up the most and both Gold and Copper -0.2% off the most; volatility is mostly light within the overall guise of narrowing EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, despite the Euro's firming this week, its "Baby Blues" have moved (in real-time) down to the +70% level; and rising are those for the Bond, having confirmed yesterday a cross above their -80% level, indicative of still higher levels ahead near-term, (from the current 161s toward the 163s).
31 Oct '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Following a series of comparably slow sessions to this point of the day, (and the anticipated -0.25% FedFunds cut being in the bag), the BEGOS Markets are more active: firmest is Silver +1.4% followed by Gold +0.8%; weakest is Copper -0.9% followed by the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust within the construct that Market Ranges have been narrowing considerably. The Euro has been firm these last 2 sessions despite the Market Trends sub-80% breach by the "Baby Blues": presently 1.11940, were price to exceed 1.12220, prudent cash management can opt to caution the mid-1.10s call. Today's Econ Baro inputs include Q3's Employment Cost Index, Oct's Chi PMI, plus Sep's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE inflation (Fed-favoured) reading.
30 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a bit more movement to this point of the session than we've been seeing: yesterday, all 8 components settled inside of their respective neutral zones, something we don't recall having noted in the past. At present, Gold and Silver both are +0.4% whilst Copper is -0.4%; still, volatility is mostly light, although the Swiss Franc has traced 71% of its EDTR. The Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed slipping below their +80% axis such that we expect price (presently 1.11430) to dip over the near-term toward the mid-1.10s. The Econ Baro receives the 1st read on Q3 GDP and Oct's ADP jobs data; the FOMC announce their -0.25% rate cut come 11:00 PT.
29 Oct '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in sideways modes, indeed all 8 within what we'd refer to as their respective neutral zones. 2 components are "unch" (Gold and the Spoo) whilst the other 6 are lower, the weakest being Oil and Silver, both -0.4%; volatility is as light as can be with 6 of the components tracing less than 30% of their EDTRs, that measure itself swiftly dropping across the spectrum as can be seen on the Market Ranges page. The Euro's "Baby Blues (per Market Trends) have in real-time slipped below their +80% axis, which upon an end-of-day confirmation would be suggestive of still lower price levels. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's Consumer Confidence and Sep's Pending Home Sales.
28 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: To start the week the word is "sideways" for the BEGOS Markets on relatively light volatility. The largest net change at present is Oil's being -0.5%, whilst to the upside Silver is +0.4%. The Gold Update highlights Silver's upside out-performance during the latter part of last week, but that the Gold/Silver ratio (now 83.4x) remains well above the 2001-to-date average of 64.8x. The Bond achieved our MRT of 158^28. The week's calendar is busy with 19 metrics due for the Econ Baro, 155 Q3 earnings reports due within the S&P 500, and the Fed's rate cut come Wednesday.
25 Oct '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Silver is the BEGOS Markets outperformer, +1.7% with a 104% EDTR tracing; no other component is remotely close, the next group of gainers being Copper, Oil and the Spoo all +0.2% on just light volatility; the Bond is off 2 pips and at 159^28 is one full point above our MRT of 158^28, the guiding daily MACD still negative. The Gold/Silver ratio at 83.2x is the lowest (per recorded closings) in a full month. Q3 Earnings Season is some 20% complete with 74% of reported bottom lines beating estimates, but only 64% actually improving; specific to the S&P 500 with 170 reporting thus far, 78% having beaten estimates, but only 71% have improved; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.7x. Oct's final UofM Sentiment read comes due for the Econ Baro.
24 Oct '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Narrowing trading ranges remain the name of the game with 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets components to this point of the session tracing less than 50% of their EDTRs, the 2 exceptions being the Bond's 55% tracing and the Euro's 79% tracing. Net changes are slight as well, ranging from Copper +0.3% to Oil -0.4%. Our MRT for the Bond of 158^28 remains intact as the MACD's daily stance stays negative. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Sep's Durable Orders and New Home Sales. Mario Draghi delivers his final post-ECB policy statement (04:45 PT) press conference at 05:30 PT.
23 Oct '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets safe haven components are mildly higher and the balance lower. Both the Bond and Gold are +0.3% and Silver is +0.1%; Oil is weakest -0.7% followed by Copper -0.3%; volatility is only light at best, as per the Market Ranges page all EDTRs continue to narrow. Still negative is the Bond's daily MACD, even with price back above 160; still, the MRT of 158^28 is in play, and per the Market Profile, 160^20 is a dominant trading resistor; as well, per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" continue to descend. At Market Rhythms, the list is rife with 28 studies, many of which are for the metals.
22 Oct '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light with the BEGOS Markets little changed either way at present: firmest is Silver +0.4% and weakest is the Swiss Franc -0.3%. At Market Ranges, EDTRs are decidedly dropping across the spectrum, a notable observation given Oct is oft considered a volatile month, (albeit there's nearly 2 weeks still to run). At Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components have their "Baby Blues" increasing: only those continuing to drop are for the Bond, the daily MACD for which is furthering its negativity with the 158^28 MRT still in play. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's Existing Home Sales.
21 Oct '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver is +1.0% as the firmest BEGOS Markets performer in starting the week: with Gold only +0.1%, the Gold/Silver ratio drops to a still very excessive 84.3x. Weakest of the bunch is Oil -0.8%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's daily MACD is working lower, the MRT of 158^28 being maintained; by Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) accelerating lower, having crossed below their 0% axis; by Market Values, the Bond is in harmony with its smooth valuation line as both trace lower together; and by its Market Magnet, the Bond shows as some 2 points "low", the most recent low extreme being better than 5 points "low" in mid-September, (all of these readings supportive of the noted MRT).
18 Oct '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil +0.7% is the BEGOS Markets upside leader whilst in mirror image the weakest is Silver -0.7%. Volatility is mostly light, underscored by the narrowing across the board of EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. Maintaining its negative bent is the Bond's daily MACD in support of our 158^28 MRT; per Market Trends, the only components with positive 21-day linreg inclinations are Copper and the Euro; and per Market Magnets, the Euro's deviation is nearly a full point (.01) "high" which may be considered "extreme", notably due to the Brexit bounce, (the agreement with the EU still having to pass Parliament). Oil's cac vol is moving from Nov into Dec. Due for the Econ Baro is Sep's Leading Indicators.
17 Oct '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: 'Tis put that the "EU and UK reach agreement on Brexit deal", which within the BEGOS Markets has effected the Euro (+0.3%) to trace 138% of its EDTR; otherwise, the volatility amongst the balance of the bunch is merely light-to-moderate. Firmest is Silver +0.7% and weakest is the Bond -0.3%, the latter's daily MACD continuing its negative track and thus the 158^28 MRT being still in place. The Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have (in real-time) reached down to their 0% axis, the 21-day linreg trend now flat toward turning negative as anticipated in yesterday's comment. The Econ Baro looks to a number of metrics including Oct's Philly Fed Index, plus Sep's Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.
16 Oct '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4% and the "unch" Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Copper -1.4% followed by Silver -1.1%; volatility is moderate. The Bond's MRT of 158^28 remains intact despite the up day as the daily MACD stays negative; also, the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends continue to drop such that the 21-day linreg trend may rotate to negative by week's end; having just confirmed as negative, too, for the Bond is its daily Price Oscillator. Sep's Retail Sales and Aug's Business Inventories come into the Econ Baro; then late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
15 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe haven components of the BEGOS Markets are little changed, but not so those more economically-driven: we've Oil -0.8%, Copper -0.6%, but the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond, for which per Market Trends is seeing its "Baby Blues" falling after having been above their +80% level, confirmed a negative crossing on the daily MACD, which (per an entry at 160^24) looks for a MRT of 158^28 ($1,900/cac by the present Market Rhythms list). Q3 Earnings Season ramps up a bit today as results from several major banks are due; due, too, for the Econ Baro are the NY State Empire Index for Oct and late in the session Sep's Treasury Budget.
14 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: With data recovered and its transmission back on go, we find the week starting with Oil -2.5%, so 'tis said given concerns over the US/China "Phase One" trade agreement. Weak, too, are Copper -0.9% and the Spoo -0.3%; gaining a bid are the Bond +0.6%, Gold +0.4% and Silver +0.3%. The Gold Update points to price, as has been told, remaining in correction mode with the potential of the 1454-1434 support shelf still viable for a test, the weekly parabolic Short trend beginning a 5th week (the flip price being 1557). Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" have kinked lower (in real-time) for the 1st day since 01 Oct, those for Gold having been meandering lower now for the 4th consecutive session.
11 Oct '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: To our valued readers: we are at present under the duress of a data transmission issue due ('twould appear) to some software "path" corruption following an automated op-sys update to the computer we use whilst traveling; we believe this is unrelated to the widespread public safety power shutoff throughout much of Northern California which has not quite reached us up here at Squaw Valley from where we'll attempt to release tomorrow's Gold Update in some limited form. Fortunately we expect to fully recover and restore all requisite data that drive our analytics and the website upon working with the desktop "workhorses" in the new week. The Econ Baro (Ex/Im Pricing and UofM Sentiment) along with the Earnings Page shall be updated today. Thanks as ever for your valued readership and patience.
10 Oct '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: No one BEGOS Market is at present changed a full percentage point either way, most of the bunch being higher led by Copper + 0.9% and the weak link being the Spoo -0.2%; volatility however is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and the Euro having traced in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs. The Bond is making a "lower low" for the 4th consecutive session, yet its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have crossed above their +80% axis: upon their kinking back below that level, we'd anticipate still lower prices still. Sep's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
09 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: We're seeing the reverse of this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components to the upside with Oil +1.0% in the lead, followed by the Spoo +0.8%; downside safe havens are led by the Bond -0.3% followed by Gold -0.2%; volatility is moderate, save for the Spoo which has traced 105% of its EDTR. Gold's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue their stall right on the 0% axis, as had those been for the Swiss Franc, (which in real-time have dropped sub-0%). Aug's Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro; late in the session come the FOMC's minutes from their 17-18 Sep meeting.
08 Oct '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' safe haven components are higher, lead by Gold +0.7%, Silver +0.6%, and the Swiss Franc +0.4%; on the economically-driven side, Oil is -1.2% followed by the Spoo -0.6% and then Copper -0.1%; volatility is moderate. Despite the PMs getting a bit of a push, at Market Trends their "Baby Blues" respective recent upside stints are stalling. At Market Values, the primary BEGOS components are all near their respective smooth valuation line, save for Oil showing some 4 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro is Sep's PPI; Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.
07 Oct '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: The week's start finds the BEGOS Markets mixed. Firmest is Oil +0.6% whilst weakest is Silver -0.6%: volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, only the Bond and Swiss Franc (barely) are is linreg uptrends, although the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver are regaining some upside ground. The Gold Update points to price's correction sub-1500 as having been brief, but given the weekly parabolic Short trend being relatively young that the 1454-1434 support area is still viable for a test; the Gold/Silver ratio has climbed to 86.0x and the S&P's "live" P/E is 35.5x. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Aug's Consumer Credit.
04 Oct '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Ahead of Sep's jobs data we've 6 of the BEGOS Markets to the upside, led by Oil and the Swiss Franc both +0.5%; the 2 weak leaks are the Spoo and Copper both -0.4%; volatility understandably is mostly light, save for the Swiss Franc's 112% EDTR tracing. With the recent overall volatility we've not been citing any specific MRTs, however there are 27 qualified candidates at present for tracking on the list at Market Rhythms. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Aug's Trade Deficit; Powell is scheduled for opening remarks at today 's "Fed Listens" event 'round 11:00 PT.
03 Oct '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.8% and the Swiss Franc -0.3% are in the red amongst the BEGOS Markets, the firmest being Oil, but just by +0.4%, followed by the Bond, Gold and Silver all +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, that for the Bond has swung to rising: 'tis falling for the balance of the 7 other components. Although both the Bond and Spoo are marginally higher in this session, they at present have the best correlation -- which is negative -- of the 5 primary BEGOS components. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's ISM(Svcs) Index and Aug's Factory Orders.
02 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Having lost 1.4% yesterday, the Spoo is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets at present, -0.8%, followed by the Swiss Franc -0.7%; Gold +0.4% is the firmest component; volatility is moderate, save for the Swiss Franc's robust EDTR tracing of 125%. At Market Profiles, only the Bond's price is above its midpoint, whilst at Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) crossing below its smooth valuation line; yet less negatively, the S&P's Moneyflow yesterday was down the regression-equivalent of 14 points vs. the Index itself falling 36 points; but notably on balance from a quarter ago, the Index shows as 120 points "high". Sep's ADP jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Oct '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: In kicking off Q4 'tis a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets: weakest is Copper -1.4% followed by the Bond -0.8%; firmest are Silver and Oil both +0.7%; volatility runs from light for Oil by its EDTR tracing of 32% to robust for the Bond with a 121% EDTR tracing. Despite the Bond being lower, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are the only set that are rising. Gold has traded as low as 1465 in nearing the 1454-1434 structural support area; by its Market Magnet, Gold is 34 points "low" and by its Market Value 56 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's ISM(Mfg) Index and Aug's Construction Spending.
30 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are basically "unch" to lower, the only one barely in the black being the Spoo +0.1%; weakest is Silver -1.7% followed by Oil -1.6% and then Gold -0.6%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the precious metals' robust performance year-to-date, but again cautions for lower prices near-term, noting such technicals as Gold's Short weekly parabolic trend and negative positioning of the "Baby Blues" by Market Trends: a break sub-1490 would open the door down to the 1454-1434 structural support area. The Econ Baro starts the week with Sep's Chicago PMI.
27 Sep '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Silver -1.7% and Oil -1.4% are the BEGOS Markets' weak links whilst to the upside we've Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Gold at present is sub-1500: recall the weekly parabolic trend flipped to Short a week ago and that structural support lies in the 1454-1434 range. At Market Trends, those components with their "Baby Blues" in free-fall are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo. The Gold/Silver ratio is running back up, now at 85.4x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.3x; and the Econ Baro looks to a bevy of incoming metrics including the Fed's favoured inflation gauge of the Core PCE Index for Aug along with that month's Personal Income/Spending and Durable Orders.
26 Sep '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: At present no one BEGOS Market is changed beyond 0.4% in either direction: to the upside the Bond is +0.4% and to the downside Oil is -0.4%; within those ranges, the EuroCurrencies are weak but the PMs are firm; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fresh fall whilst those for Silver move to their lowest reading (-18%) since 06 Jun. The Euro is getting quite low vis-à-vis its Market Magnet. Due for the Econ Baro are Aug's Pending Home Sales and Q2's final reading on GDP, the expectation remaining for the 2.0% annual pace.
25 Sep '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only the Bond (barely) is higher, +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets being in the red led by Oil -0.6%, Copper -0.5%, and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility remains mostly light as Market Ranges on balance are narrowing. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have halted their fall, having dropped no lower than the -48% level before ratcheting up to (in real-time) -25%; those for Silver however remain falling and have gone sub-0%; meanwhile those for the Spoo have just dropped below the key +80 level suggestive of lower prices near-term, initial structural support at 2947 followed by 2900. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's New Home Sales.
24 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil -0.8% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, and by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower (in real-time) for the first time since the facilities attack in Saudi Arabia: prior to that event, the "Baby Blues" whilst above their 0% axis nonetheless were weakening, thus this may be resumption of such. To the upside the Bond and Spoo both are +0.3%; volatility has backed off to light: indeed at Market Ranges, all 8 components' EDTRs are appearing toppy if not working lower. On the S&P Moneyflow page, all 3 time frames indicate the Index's level as not supported by its flow. Sep's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
23 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag in starting the week: firmest far and away is Silver +2.3%, the Gold/Silver ratio dropping from 84.4x at Fri's settle to now 82.7x, (Gold itself just +0.2%); weakest is Oil -0.9% in trading down to its lowest level (57.37) since the facilities attack in Saudi Arabia; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update points to price having risen, notably into last week's end, despite the negative technicals of the weekly parabolic trend having flipped to Short and the ongoing fall per Market Trends by the "Baby Blues". And mind that latter measure for Copper as 'tis rolling over following an ascent to no higher than +62% (vs. making it to +80%).
20 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Save for "unch" Euro, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, but not by much, the leader being Silver +0.5% followed by Gold and Oil both +0.3%; volatility is mostly light with the Swiss Franc leading the ETR tracings at 70%, but the only other component exceeding a 50% tracing being Copper at 60%. At Market Trends, wherein we've already pointed to Gold's plunging "Baby Blues", those for Silver look to cross sub-0% come Mon rendering that 21-day linreg trend as negative. No data is due today for the Econ Baro, however its upward turn these past 2 weeks appears quite pronounced, the Fed's rate cut notwithstanding.
19 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: With the anticipated 0.25% FedFunds cut and what the future may hold "as warranted" behind us -- the S&P 500finishing the session after it all +1 point -- we now find the BEGOS Markets mixed, Oil +1.4% up the most followed by the Swiss Franc +0.6%, and the Spoo and Copper both -0.2% as the weak links; volatility is light-to-moderate save for the robust movement in the Swiss Franc in tracing 130% of its EDTR. The Gold/Silver ratio which 2 weeks ago found itself sub-80x is back up to 84.6x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is a whopping 35.7x. For the Econ Baro we've Sep's Philly Fed Index, Aug's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Q2's Current Account Deficit.
18 Sep '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Fed day 'tis for a 0.25% Funds rate reduction. And for the BEGOS Markets only the Bond +0.4% and Oil +0.3% are higher; lowest is Silver -1.0% followed by Copper -0.6%; volatility not surprisingly is mostly light. Oil's (Oct) low yesterday of 58.46 was below its high last Tuesday (a week ago) of 58.76: whilst that doesn't "close the gap" to Friday's close of 54.82, it did place pricing marginally back into the recent pre-Saudi Arabia event trading area. Today, Oil's cac vol is moving from Oct into Nov and by Market Values, price is now only 3 points above its smooth valuation line as well as having snapped back to its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Housing Starts/Permits.
17 Sep '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Not a-typically we are seeing some reversal of yesterday's moves which were significantly driven by the strike on Saudi Arabia: Oil has ceased to increase, at present -0.3% following Mon's +12.9% increase; weakest is Copper -0.9% and firmest is the Bond +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate as focus to some degree turns toward tomorrow's FOMC statement/Powell presser. Per Market Values, Oil is some 6 points above its smooth valuation line, as was the case back in Apr and as well in Oct of a year ago, price then retreating in both instances, (it "being different this time" notwithstanding). Per Market Values, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" have crossed above their -80% axis indicative of higher levels near-term. Sep's NAHB Housing Index and Aug's IndProd/CapUtil are due for the Econ Baro.
16 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: "Facts, Hercule, Facts!" Circumventing the media exaggeration, let's update the directionally-anticipated BEGOS Markets gaps post-Saudi Arabia oil facility drone strikes. Oil is +8.6% (not "20%"), Silver is +2.4%, and Gold is +1.0%; the balance of the bunch are changed by less than 1.0% either way at present; further, save for Oil's EDTR tracing of 232%, volatility by the EDTR tracings is moderate, not unlike many other days. Those are the facts. The Gold Update points to our "aggressive" high of 1526 for this year as having become the "centerpiece" price 'round which trading has oscillated for the last month, (see the chart therein). Due for the Econ Baro in starting the week is Sep's NY State Empire Index.
13 Sep '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: A busy session for the BEGOS Markets as the EuroCurrencies roll their cac vol from Sep into Dec as does that for the Spoo; the Econ Baro looks to 6 inputs including Sep's UofM Sentiment, Aug's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus Jul's Business Inventories. And only the Bond -0.4% is in the red, the firmest component being Copper +1.0% followed by the Spoo +0.5%: the latter at 1322 is just 7 points from its all-time high of 1329 (26 Jul) and per Market Trends has the best upside 21-day linreg consistency by the "Baby Blues", albeit per Market Values, price (in real-time) is showing as some 91 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; the S&P's "live" P/E is 35.9x.
12 Sep '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Within the hour at 04:45 PT comes an ECB policy statement expected to further reduced its already negative lending rate, potentially embark on a new QE path, and perhaps adjust member banks' reserve requirements; Draghi speaks at 05:30 PT. Ahead of this, all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil -1.1%, are higher, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper +1.6%, Silver +0.5% and Gold +0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper's EDTR tracing being 122%. From the Market Rhythms page, Oil's 2-hr. EMA (corrected from MACD) signals have been sporting profitable follow-through. Aug's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Sep '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Silver +0.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.5% and then Oil + 0.3%; the Eurocurrencies are the mild weak links and volatility is light-to- moderate. The PMs' upward day is within the near-term milieu of their "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) extending their declines, those for Gold specifically confirming (as noted yesterday) the 21-day linreg trend swinging from positive to negative: currently 1501, there is structural support for Gold at 1467. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's PPI and Jul's Wholesale Inventories.
10 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have a downside bias, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper -0.7%, Silver -0.5% and Gold -0.4%; firmest is Oil +0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold/Silver Ratio is 83.3x and the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.3x. At Market Trends the PMs "Baby Blues" are increasing their downside pace, sufficiently so that Gold's 21-day linreg trend may turn negative by tomorrow; price has traded below the 1500 level (1495 low) for the first time since 13 August. At Market Values, Gold has returned to sit (in real-time) precisely on its smooth valuation line after being better than 100 points above it 2 weeks ago.
09 Sep '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: A comparatively less-volatile session to the begin the week this time 'round for the BEGOS Markets, EDTR tracings ranging from 68% for Silver down to just 21% for the Spoo. Both the Spoo and Gold are +0.2% whilst the weak link is the Bond -0.5%. The Gold Update paints a bit of a near-term negative picture for the PMs as by Market Trends their respective "Baby Blues" have moved below the key +80% axis level, Silver's price late in the week dropping at nearly triple the rate of Gold's pullback. Due late in today's session for the Econ Baro is Jul's Consumer Credit.
06 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: From Silver's week-to-date high on Wed at 19.75, price has plummeted as much as 8.2%, this session's low thus far at 18.12; the white metal's net change for today at present is -2.8%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Oil -1.7%; only the Spoo +0.4% is higher. Volatility ranges from light for the Spoo by its 31% EDTR tracing to robust for Silver by its 135% tracing. The Gold/Silver ratio having fallen sub-80 earlier in the week is now back up at 83.0x. The "live" P/E for the S&P is 36.0x, and given the Spoo's EDTR is 50 points, a strong up day could near the all-time high of 3029. 'Course, in the balance for it all is the Econ Baro's Aug jobs daat, the consensus for which is payroll creation of 145k, below both the 12-month average of 192k and the level a year ago of 270k.
05 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with mostly moderate volatility, the upside leaders being Copper +1.0% and the Spoo +0.9%, the downside being led by Silver -1.9% followed by Gold -0.7%: as noted yesterday, Silver has joined Gold by the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having slipped below their respective +80% axes. At Market Values, despite the Spoo's current strength, price has only just returned up to meeting (in real-time) its smooth valuation line; (obviously the S&P itself remains excessively expensive, the "live" P/E at 35.7x). Much is due for the Econ Baro including Aug's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svcs) Index, Jul's Factory Orders, and the revision to Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
04 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.2% are negative amongst the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +1.5% followed by Oil +1.2% and then the Spoo +0.8%; volatility spans from light for Oil with just a 38% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 110% tracing. The Gold/Silver ratio is 79.6x, (live reading): it has not posted a settle that low since 10 August 2018. At Market Trends, despite Silver being higher (+0.2%), its "Baby Blues" have joined those for Gold in slipping below the key +80% axis, such rule being a harbinger of lower price levels near-term. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Trade Deficit; late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
03 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Updating this 2-day GLOBEX session finds Copper -2.2% the weakest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Oil -2.0% and then the Spoo -0.7%; firmest are the PMs with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.6%; overall session volatility is moderate-to-robust, the widest EDTR tracers being Copper at 181% and the Euro at 128%. As noted yesterday, despite Gold being firm, its "Baby Blues" by Market Trends are working lower; indeed those for the EuroCurrencies are outright plummeting, the Euro trading below the 1.10 level for the first time since May 2017. Aug's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jul's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro; Vehicle Sales roll in as the session proceeds.
02 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session (for settle tomorrow given the Stateside physical bourses' holiday today) finds the Spoo "unch" following a material gap-down opening extending to as much as -31 points (-1.0%) on weekend TariffTalk for China, Gold in turn gapping up to as much as 1544 before being presently +0.3% at 1534. The Gold Update points to Silver's up-streak out-pacing Gold, but that the white metal may lose her grip should the yellow slip as its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are lower yet again. Still, Gold is the session's firmest BEGOS Market, the weakest being Copper -0.5%, and volatility is moderate, likely to become more robust given Tuesday's full session in waiting.
30 Aug '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo +0.7% and Silver +0.5% are in the black (an unusual pairing), the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets to the downside, the weakest being Oil -1.2% and the Bond and Swiss Franc both -0.3%; volatility is mostly light, save for Silver having traced 99% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) slipped to +81%: a break below +80% would suggest lower prices ahead, as we've been anticipating for Gold, such slide not having been made manifest despite of the "Baby Blues" continuing to slip there (now down to +69% in real-time). A bevy of data is due for the Econ Baro including Aug's Chi PMI and Jul's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation read.
29 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Gold and the EuroCurrencies are lower by some -0.1% to -0.2% with the balance of the BEGOS Bunch in the black led by the Spoo +1.1% and then Silver and Copper both +0.9%, (the Gold/Silver ratio having eroded to 83.0x, albeit still extremely high by historical standards). Session volatility is mostly moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. Gold's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have again inched lower as price nonetheless remains (in real-time) some 87 points above its smooth valuation line at Market Values. The Bond's cac vol is rolling from Sep into Dec. The Econ Baro looks to the 2nd of Q2 GDP's 3 readings plus Jul's Pending Home Sales.
28 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is again comparatively light vis-à-vis the recent EDTR increases, and save for Silver +0.7%, net changes at present are mild, the balance of the bunch differing by just 0.0% to 0.2%. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are lower for their 7th straight session, price itself having not let materially go to the downside. At Market Values, Gold's distance above its smooth valuation line is (in real-time) 100 points "high", as is the Bond nearly 10 points "high": both such positions are extreme relative to past readings. Cac vol for both Silver and Copper is moving from Sep into Dec.
27 Aug '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss Franc -0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, the firmest being Oil +1.1% followed by the Bond and Silver both +0.4%; volatility is light -- within the context that per Market Ranges -- EDTRs have expanded over the last month. The Spoo's daily EMA has negatively crossed: this is quite a ponderous study (the crossover being just the 8th in nearly 3 years) which per the current Market Rhythms list can lead to substantive profits; however cash management is vital if following this one (as it ought be with all signals). Aug's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
26 Aug '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Significant volatility marks the start of the week for the BEGOS Markets with 6 of the 8 components having already traced in excess of their daily EDTRs. Safe haven products gapped higher, Gold notably to a 6-year high at 1565 before reversing to as low as 1535, whilst the Spoo fell to 2810 before reversing up to 2888. Firmest at present are Oil and Silver, both +1.2%, whilst weakest is the Swiss Franc -0.5%. The Gold Update points to dip-wariness given price's "Baby Blues" have slipped below their +80% axis (see Market Trends), but that the overall picture remains positive. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's Durable Orders.
23 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of Powell's address in Jackson Hole (07:00 PT): up the most is the Spoo +0.4% and down the most is the Swiss Franc -0.4%; volatility not surprisingly is mostly light. As anticipated by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) dropped below their +80% level, confirmation of which come day's end technically portends lower prices near-term, (typically within a month); still, Gold's firmness these past three months has of course been driven more by a fundamental awakening. Coincident with the Fed Chair's address are Jul's New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.
22 Aug '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for Oil +0.4% and the Bond "unch", the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver -0.9%, followed by Copper -0.8% and Gold -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro leading the EDTR tracings at 91%; least rangy is the Spoo with just a 35% tracing. Market Values finds Gold's "Baby Blues" lower yet again, the real-time reading being +81%: +80% is the arbitrary line-in-the-sand between maintaining a firm uptrend vs. its consistency breaking apart. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Leading Indicators.
21 Aug '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Like yesterday, BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the only EDTR tracing exceeding 50% to this point being that by the Bond at 69%. But in mirror to yesterday, the economically-driven components are the winners, led by Oil +1.2% and the Spoo +0.8%; the safe havens are the losers with the Bond and Gold both -0.4%. The latter's "Baby Blues per Market Trends have again notched lower (at +86% in real-time). By the Market Values page, both the Bond and Gold still appear as quite "high" whilst the Spoo shows as 100 points "low", (notwithstanding the excessively high "live" P/E at 33.5x as low interest rates proliferate). Jul's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro; the FOMC's 30-31 Jul meeting minutes arrive late in the session.
20 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Comparable "quiet" describes the BEGOS Markets given volatility is light, (again within the context that EDTRs have notably increased per the Market Ranges page). Still by net change, the safe havens are the leaders, firmest being Silver +0.9% followed by Gold +0.8% and the Bond +0.5%; the economically-driven components are the losers, the weakest being Copper -0.8%; that noted, per Market Trends the red metal's "Baby Blues" are commencing an upward curl. Those for the yellow metal have (in real-time) kinked lower, albeit they're still above the +80% level: nonetheless, a key level to mind over the ensuing days, which if downside-eclipsed would portend lower prices.
19 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.0% and Copper +0.9% are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders to begin the week, one for which Econ Baro inflow is sparse and the highlight of which is the Fed with its 30-31 Jul meeting minutes (Wed) and Powell at Jackson Hole (Fri). The PMs (not surprisingly per The Gold Update) are pulling back, Silver -1.3% and Gold -0.9%. Volatility is mostly moderate. Yields are rising for the 2nd straight day, albeit the Market Values page still finds the Bond some 9 points "high" and Gold some 90 points "high". Our finalized Q2 Earnings Season page depicts just 53% of 2,070 reporting companies having bettered their bottom lines over Q2 of a year ago.
16 Aug '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: For the BEGOS Markets 'tis up with those economically-driven and down with those of safe haven status: the upside leader is Oil +1.4% whilst weakest is Gold -0.8%; tomorrow's Gold Update shall review why we selected 1526 as a high for this year, price having since been stuck right 'round that price. Session volatility is moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Sep into Oct. Copper at 2.5950 is smack on its most dominant Market Profile price for the past two weeks. The Econ Baro closes out a busy week with Aug's UofM Sentiment and Jul's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Aug '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility in the context of the ramped-up EDTRs (see Market Ranges) is moderate. Firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.6% and weakest is Oil -1.5%. Yesterday's selling in stocks was sufficient to move the "live" P/E of the S&P down to (a still extremely expensive) 32.2x; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 148 points "low"; by Market Magnets 'tis 62 points "low" albeit 'twas 141 points "low" as of 05 Aug; and by Market Trends, the Spoo's descending "Baby Blues" real-time reading is -65%, (i.e. we'd expect -80% in the balance). For the Econ Baro we've a busy day: 10 metrics are due, highlighted by expectations for slowing in Aug's Fed (NY and Philly) surveys, as well as in both Jul's Retail Sales and Q2's Productivity.
14 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The StateSide 2-yr. yield has provisionally moved above that of the 10-yr.; Germany's annualized Q2 GDP pace comes in at -0.1%. The economic components of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Oil and Copper both -1.4%, the safe have components are higher led by the Bond +1.2%; save for the Bond's 106% EDTR tracing, volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo (at present 2905) by its Market Profile is centered across its past two weeks trading range, the key overhead resistor being 2928. Jul's Ex/Im pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets leaders with Silver +2.1% and Gold +1.0%, (their respective ratio thus dropping to 88.4x, albeit still extremely high by historical standards, the average from 2001-to-date being 64.6x). Weakest is the Spoo, but by just -0.2%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. Gold yesterday reached our "aggressive" forecast high of 1526 and thus far in this session has traded up to 1546; by Market Values, today Gold shows as 130 points "high" and the Bond as nearly 10 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jul's CPI.
12 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The biggest moves at present to start the week are in mirror form, the Bond +0.7% and the Spoo -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold is higher, Silver is lower, in turn pushing the Gold/Silver ratio back up to 89.5x. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal not having quite (yet) reached our "aggressive" forecast high of 1526, but this could be an area of consternation (as was after the case of achieving 1434 for some 5 weeks); as well, the Market Values page shows Gold being some 100 points "high". A busy week of 18 incoming metrics begins for the Econ Baro with Jul's Treasury Budget late in the session.
09 Aug '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Toward week's end we've further slowing in the volatility of the BEGOS Markets, again relative to the recent Market Ranges increases; only two components at this reading have exceeded 50% of the EDTR tracings: Silver at 56% and Oil at 54%; narrowest is the Spoo at 38%, although it is the only market in the red at -0.7%; firmest is Oil at +0.7%. Still, given yesterday's equities rise, the Spoo rather swiftly reached the 2916.25 MRT as was signaled by the 6-hr. MACD. With a week to run in Q2 Earnings Season, only 64% of the S&P 500 constituents having bettered their Q2 of a year ago. Jul's PPI comes into the Econ Baro.
08 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is slowing, albeit that is relative to Market Ranges having notably increased of late: the EDTR with the most tracing thus far this session is 66% for both the Bond and Copper, (the first day this week with no tracings having exceed 100% 'round this time). Up the most are both the Bond and Spoo, +0.2%: off the most is Oil -0.6% followed by Silver -0.5%. The Spoo's 6-hr. MACD signaled to the LongSide (at 12:00 yesterday from 2884.25) for an MRT of 2916.25 ($1,600/cac). Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Aug '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Gold +1.1% is trading above the 1500 level for the 1st time since 12 April 2013; strongest of the BEGOS Markets is Silver +2.4% at 16.850; weakest is Oil -0.3%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust; mind the Market Ranges page for noting increasing EDTRs. At Market Values, Gold's (real-time) reading is nearly 100 points "high", apropos of a this being a true breakout vs. overvaluation of a still very undervalued asset. The Dollar is torn between a rising Yen and falling EuroCurrencies. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Jun's Consumer Credit.
06 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: From "worst to first" goes the Spoo, at present +1.1% with China eliciting a reference point for its currency; the Bond -0.4% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" continue to ratchet down, whilst those for Gold despite price's upside session yesterday have (in real-time) kinked lower. As described in The Gold Update, price need firm 'round the 1490 level for us to run with our "aggressive" forecast high for this year of 1526. Silver was not as strong yesterday as was Gold, evidenced by the Gold/Silver ratio now back above 90x.
05 Aug '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: China's currency weakening is boosting the PMs, Silver +1.7% and Gold +0.3%; The Gold Update cautions for some pullback in Silver (structural support in the mid-15s) given the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends having dropped below their +80% (which generally leads to lower levels), something of which to be aware once this geo-political event falls from the headlines. Off the most is the Spoo -1.6%. Volatility is robust, save for Oil which has traced but 47% of its EDTR. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 Aug '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility remains ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, this session's EDTR tracings thus far ranging from 59% for the Spoo to 133% for the Bond. Up the most at present is Oil +1.6% and down the most is Silver -0.8%. 'Course all these alacritive swings are in the wake of the FedFunds cut and TariffTalk: earnings get little mention anymore, our "live" P/E of the S&P still very expensive at 35.5x; as for Q2 Earnings Season, of the 350 S&P 500 companies having reported, 66% have bettered their their bottom lines vs. Q2 of a year ago. A heavy dose (9 metrics) of incoming data hits the Econ Baro today, highlighted by Jul's payrolls and Jun's Trade Deficit.
01 Aug '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.4%, today post-Fed we've nothing but red, obviously meaning the Dollar continues getting the bid. And the PMs are paying the price for this "mid-cycle" FedFunds rate cut with Silver -1.8%, followed by Gold -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The selling in the PMs these last 2 sessions has kinked the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) lower for both metals, those for Silver in real-time below their +80% level such that we'd look for further fallout there. Jul's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending come into the Econ Baro.
31 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver -0.6% has encountered reasonable profit taking considering how well the white metal has done of late, the present price of 16.490 on this final day of Jul being +8.7% from where it settled back on 01 Jul (15.175): 'tis the weakest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are fairly muted with the Fed's 0.25% rate cut/FOMC statement/Powell presser in the balance; volatility is light. The Euro's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have begun (albeit almost imperceptibly) to turn up from their -80%, price in a mild rise these last 4 trading sessions. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's ADP jobs data and the Chi PMI, plus Q2's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jul '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper -0.8% and the Spoo -0.3% are the downside standouts at present, whilst to the upside 'tis Oil +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the biggest EDTR range tracer being Copper at 82%, but with those for the other two metals and Oil just in the 30% range. Volume for Gold is moving from the Aug cac to that for Dec with a "contango" of +13 points, which as pointed out in The Gold Update is the largest Aug/Dec rollover difference since at least 2001, suggesting bullishness. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Consumer Confidence, plus Jun's Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, as well as Core PCE Inflation, the FOMC's favoured such measure as they commence their 2-day policy meeting today.
29 Jul '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Little changed on light volatility are the BEGOS Markets, the Bond up the most at +0.2% and both the Euro and Oil the weakest -0.1%. The current list on the Market Rhythms page is 15 studies, however none per Fri's EOD run had triggered. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's state of basically flatlining these past two week, as well as the white metal's recent surge having slowed. The Fed's 0.25% rate cut (come Wed) has been priced into the FedFundsFutures for some time (the statement and presser notwithstanding); still the Econ Baro looks to 18 incoming metrics as the week unfolds.
26 Jul '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of the Econ Baro getting its 1st peek at Q2 GDP: Oil +0.8% is again the biggest gainer, the weakest component at present being Copper -0.5%; volatility is light, underscoring the focus on the GDP release. Despite the Spoo reaching a record high yesterday, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have (in real-time) kinked to their lowest level (+53%) since 20 June; the Spoo is 50 points (per Market Values) above its smooth valuation line and the P/E of the S&P remains excessively (understatement) high at 32.4x.
25 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is up the most of the BEGOS Markets with Copper 2nd most +0.6%; Silver -0.4% is the weakest of the bunch, (Gold is "unch"); volatility is light-to-moderate. Our MRT of 153^09 is nixed for the Bond as the 6-hr. MACD has turned back up on itself, and by Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have moved into a sideways stuttering pattern. Across the 8 components, only Oil's Baby Blues are accelerating lower. Jun's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro, and the ECB announces it policy stance followed by Draghi's press conference.
24 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver +0.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.6%; weakest is Oil -0.5%; volatility again is mostly moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is lower still to 86.2x, (obviously still extremely high by its historical standard). Per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" which have been falling for some 3 weeks have kinked higher in real-time, the overall 21-day linreg trend still mildly up; the blue dots for Silver, of course, turned up better than a week back. The Bond has triggered 2 MRTs to the ShortSide, one being the 12-hr. Price Oscillator, the other being the 6-hr. MACD: our preference is for the latter, which from 154^09 signal price targets 153^09 ($1,000/cac per the present Market Rhythms list). Jun's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Save for Silver and the Spoo, both +0.3%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are in the red, but not overly so, the weakest being Oil -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate. Recall that earlier this month, all 8 components had been in 21-day linreg uptrends: now per the Market Trends page, 4 of those are down, namely for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil. By Market Values, both the Bond and Euro are relatively "low" vis-à-vis their typical distance from their respective smooth valuation lines. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Existing Home Sales.
22 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver and Oil, both +1.1%, lead the BEGOS Markets into the new week; Copper -0.3% is the weak link; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes Silver's gearing up toward catching up to Gold, (the yellow metal last week rising 0.6%, but the white metal gaining 6.5%), their ratio in turn dropping from its recent high of 93x to now 87x, (the average since 2001 being 65x). The Spoo is +0.5%, however its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating their decline; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 32.3x; thus far in Q2 Earnings season, 60 of the S&P 500 constituents have reported with 75% having beaten estimates, but less so, 68% having actually improved over Q2 of a year ago.
19 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Copper has been the BEGOS Market's big winner this session: presently +1.6%, 'tis traded as high as 2.7775, nearly 3¢ above our "guesstimate high if an up day" (from the webpage) of 2.7495 and had traced 151% of the EDTR. Only Oil +0.8% also is in the black; Gold -0.7% is weakest of the bunch, followed by the Euro -0.4% and then Silver -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (at present 1438) made a marginal high for the at 1454 in concert following the reported Iranian drone downing by the US, such geo-political news swiftly falling from the FinMedia radar (and as is noted in The Gold Update "...the mid-1400s were fraught with all kinds of trading consternation from April into May of 2013"). UofM's Jul Sentiment Survey comes due for the Econ Baro.
18 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo reached the "guarded" MRT of 2980.75: price has steadied (+0.1%) in the new session, albeit per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" in real-time have notably dropped below their +80% axis (to +72%), indicative of lower prices near-term term. Otherwise the rest of BEGOS Markets again are mixed with Oil +1.1% the firmest, and Gold -0.6% the weakest; Silver however is +0.4%, marking a 4th consecutive session ('round this hour) of it being higher whilst Gold is lower. Volatility is moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Aug into Sep. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Philly Fed Index and Jun's Leading Indicators.
17 Jul '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo's 8-hr. MACD confirmed a negative cross (yesterday at 16:00 PT) from that period's opening of 3006.75: per the Market Rhythms list, that gives us an MRT of 2980.75 ($1,300/cac), however we're guarded on this one given the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) recently regained the +80% level. 'Tis a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets with Copper, the Swiss Franc and Gold all a bit down, with the balance up. the most so being Oil +0.8%; this is the 3rd straight session which finds Gold lower and Silver higher, their ratio slipping sub-90x to 89.7x, (still extremely high, historically). Session volatility is again light-to-moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jul '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: As we type, the Spoo is "unch", even as "big bank" earnings have been reported; Oil +0.6% is the BEGOS Markets best performer, the weakest being the Euro -0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Whilst not "officially" a BEGOS component, the Yen has been producing very nice intra-day swings by its various of the Market Rhythm technical studies we follow (2-hr. Parabolics, 1-hr. MACD, etc.). Per yesterday's comment, the EuroCurrencies' 21-day linreg trends are now down with Copper looking like the next one to so turn. 'Tis a busy session for the Econ Baro as it looks to Jul's NAHB Housing Index, Jun's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, as well as May's Business Inventories.
15 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: In the worst case for the BEGOS Markets, the Bond, Euro, Gold and Oil all are "unch" in to this point in the new week; up the most is Copper +0.9% followed by Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes price having gone nowhere through the past two weeks beyond being choppy despite the underlying headlines hype. Per our prior comment, the Bond's 21-day linreg trend is now down; as well by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are notably falling for the precious metals and the EuroCurrencies. Jul's NY Empire State Index comes into the Econ Baro.
12 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Today, only Oil -0.1% is lower, the best BEGOS Markets performers being the Swiss Franc and Copper, both +0.5%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, all 8 components had been in 21-day linreg uptrends for nearly three weeks (some since early May), however the first to have cracked is the Euro, with the Bond not far behind, the latter albeit some 5 points below its smooth valuation line per Market Values. As for MRTs, a couple have triggered to the Long side: for Oil (daily Parabolics) and the Spoo (8-hr. MACD); but with both markets appearing "high" by various measures, we're purposely overlooking them. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's PPI.
11 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.1% is lower amongst the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of which is Oil +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Rub not thy eyes, the Spoo really is trading in the 3000s, the "live" P/E for the S&P now up to 33.4x: mind our Earnings Season link as those for Q2 unfold. Despite Chair Powell's dovish lean (he today facing the Senate Banking Committee), the Bond is not recovering from its recent slide, and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating their fall. An expected benign CPI for Jun comes due for the Econ Baro as does that month's Treasury Budget.
10 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: A double dose of Fed as Chair Powell begins the 2-day testimony (today before the House Financial Services Committee) followed by the FOMC's 18/19 June meeting minutes. Ahead of this finds Oil + 1.3% and Copper +1.1, the EuroCurrencies barely up, and the balance of the bunch lower, the Bond being both the weakest -0.4% and the most rangy with a 105% EDTR tracing; otherwise volatility is moderate. Per Market Ranges, those for all 8 components are either ticking lower or outright falling. The Econ Baro looks to May's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Jul '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only Oil +0.7% is higher amongst the BEGOS Markets, the weakest of which is Copper -1.2% followed by Gold -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) have confirmed dropping below their +80 axis, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Including the Spoo in real-time, all 8 component's "Baby Blues" are now in decline: some catalytic down-push may result from Chair Powell's 2-day Congressional testimony which begins tomorrow. Otherwise, the Gold/Silver ratio is 92.5x, the S&P's "live" P/E is 32.8x, and the Econ Baro continues its dive.
08 Jul '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As had been noted on the Markets Rhythms page, its daily updating is now in effect: attractive candidates at present include Copper's daily EMA, Oil's daily Moneyflow, the S&P (Spoo's) daily EMA, and the Swiss' daily EMA. Specific to starting the new week, only the metals triumvirate is higher, led by Copper +0.6%, the Bond is "unch' and the weakest component is Oil -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes our ongoing expectation for near-term churn; it also notes the continued "record" divergence between the rising S&P and declining Econ Baro, as well as citing all 8 BEGOS Markets being in 21-day linreg uptrends, but our being wary of several "Baby Blues" tracks running out of puff. Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro and Q2 Earnings Season begins.
05 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session continues for the BEGOS Markets, the "once above 3000" Spoo now in the red as are all 8 components, the weakest being Copper -1.2%, followed by Oil -1.0% and Silver -0.6%; volatility is moderate. With weakening German Factory Orders and a buzz of ECB stimulus easing in the air, the Euro has traded down to its lowest level (1.13190) since 20 June. Still, all of the BEGOS bunch are in 21-day linreg uptrends: however, the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) are dropping for the EuroCurrencies, Silver, Copper and Oil. Jun's payrolls data comes into the Econ Baro.
04 Jul '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: What a milestone StateSide for the "4th of July": the Spoo for the 1st time ever is trading at 3000, indeed as high as 3006. Bourses are closed here but the BEGOS Markets nonetheless work their 2-day session for Fri settle: weakest is Oil -0.4% followed by Copper -0.3%; up the most is the Bond +0.2%. Not unexpectedly, volatility is rather light, albeit Oil has traced 60% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl down, price essentially unable to break above what we've viewed a month or so ago as structural resistance in this 57-60s area.
03 Jul '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Only Silver and Copper, both -0.2%, are lower, the balance of the BEGOS Markets finding Oil +0.8% the firmest: volatility is moderate. Gold briefly re-tapped the 1440s only to have since succumbed to the 1420s: the yellow metal has traced 92% of its EDTR, surpassed only by Silver's 99% tracing; of note, the G/S ratio is up to 93.3x. For Jun, ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index come due for the Econ Baro as do May's Trade's Deficit and Factory Orders. The Spoo has an abbreviated session (to 10:15 PT) whilst the other BEGOS components go the usual distance, followed by the 15:00 opening for the whole bunch. (StateSide's Independence Day tomorrow sees a trading halt between 10:00-15:00 PT).
02 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets firmest components with Gold +0.6% and Silver +0.2%, (the latter still sufficiently lagging by price given the G/S ratio at 91.8x); Copper -0.4% is weakest and volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, both the Euro and Spoo confirmed their "Baby Blues" crossing below their +80% axes yesterday, suggestive of lower levels near-term, (the "live" P/E of the S&P is 32.7x); in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" too are sub their +80 axis, whilst by Market Values, price shows as some 66 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Vehicle Sales.
01 Jul '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil +2.8% is the BEGOS Markets' biggest gainer whilst Gold -- which gapped down 12 points to start the session -- is the largest loser -1.4%; volatility is moderate, although the Swiss Franc has traced 100% of its EDTR. The Gold Update and recent Commentary posts have cited the yellow metal as being some 100 points "high" vis-à-vis our Market Values measure; the current missive looks to Gold's consolidating to allow such stretched technicals to "catch up". Jun's ISM(Mfg) and May's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro.
28 Jun '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Similar to yesterday at this time, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way: Gold and Oil are the furthest from their respective get-gos, both +0.3%; volatility remains light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" confirmed crossing below their +80% axis such that a move near-term from these lower 15s down into the upper 14s would be typical of how prior like crossings have played out. Gold is moving back towards its lower Market Magnet, however by Market Values, price is still some 100 points "high". A bevy a metrics arrive for the Econ Baro, including Jun's Chicago PMI and May's Personal Income/Spending data, which includes the Fed's favoured inflation read per the Core CPE Price Index.
27 Jun '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for Oil -0.6%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility again is light-to-moderate. In real-time, Silver's "Baby Blues" have crossed below their +80% level: should this be the state come close, the notion is to look for lower prices near-term; the white metal at present is 15.28 (Sep), the key underling support band spanning 15.23 to 14.70; by the Market Profile, 14.95 and 14.80 are substantive volume price points. For Gold at present 1408, its Profile supporters are 1401 and 1387, the most important underlying level of course being Base Camp 1377. The Econ Baro looks to Q1's final GDP revision and May's Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold, having yesterday traded as high as 1442 is the session's weakest BEGOS Market component, -1.3%: per the prior 2 comments and The Gold Update, Gold has been in extreme "high" territory per both Market Values and Market Magnets; Gold is also leading the EDTR tracings at 108%, volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise light-to-moderate: the Spoo is up the most at +0.4%. Cac volume for Copper is moving from Jul into Sep and tomorrow ought bring same for Silver. May's Durable Orders com into the Econ Baro.
25 Jun '19, 05:40 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Gold has traded up through our "conservative" forecast high for this year (of 1434) to 1436; as noted in The Gold Update, we shall reassess our "aggressive" forecast for 1526. Early on, session volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest being Gold +0.8% mirrored by Oil being the weakest -0.8%. Again, very near-term Gold is excessively upside-stretched by both Market Values and Magnets. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Consumer Confidence and May's New Home Sales.
24 Jun '19, 11:52 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week comparably subdued, volatility running light-to-moderate with no significant net changes at present: up the most is Oil +0.5% and off the most is Copper -0.2%. The Gold Update highlights price's having finally broken above Base Camp 1377 as the most significant breakout in recent years, Gold at present 1409 with our "conservative" forecast high for this year of 1434 in the balance. Still, Gold's swift move up sees it as near-term stretched by both the Market Values and Market Magnets pages, but as bullish nonetheless for the broader term.
21 Jun '19, 14:57 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit less rangy thus far, albeit both PMs have traced much more than 100% of their respective EDTRs, namely Gold whilst just +0.4% has a 174% tracing, the high of 1415 only 19 points from our "conservative" forecast high for the year (1434); Silver -0.6% has a 157% tracing; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. The white metal as so often we've seen for better than a year remains lacking the yellow metal in pricing pace such that the present Gold/Silver ratio is 91.2x. Meanwhile the "live" P/E for the record high S&P is 32.5x,the Index's level extremely high by so many measures including its juxtaposition to the Econ Baro for which today is due May's Existing Home Sales.
20 Jun '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: Gold is the story: following a purported Iran firing on a US drone, the price of Gold went up like a rocket shot, eclipsing Base Camp 1377 for the first time in three years and then -- upon which we've opined many times --in came the mo-mo traders in driving the price as high as 1397 (+2.4%); at present 'tis +1.6% at 1387; 246% of Gold's EDTR has been traced; more on this material Gold move in the upcoming Sat edition of The Gold Update. All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black , the Dollar being down (no surprise); volatility on balance is robust across the board. Jun's Philly Fed Index, May's Leading Indicators and Q1's Current Account Balance are due for the Econ Baro.
19 Jun '19, 12:52 Central Euro Time: Stateside 'tis FedDay: the consensus is for no FedFunds rate change (current target range being 2.25%-2.50%), albeit the FedFundsFuts are suggesting a rate closer to 2.00%; given such, should there be "no change", debt prices may fall to higher yields. For the moment, the Bond's price is indeed lower -0.3%, as similarly are the metals triumvirate and Oil; the EuroCurrencies are getting a mild bid; session volatility is light-to-moderate. As well, the Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have moved below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels near-term.
18 Jun '19, 14:26 Central Euro Time: Save for the Euro -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are up, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper +0.9% and both Gold and Silver +0.8%; volatility is light-to-robust, with Oil tracing but 26% of its EDTR whilst the Euro had traced 103% and the Bond 145%. At Market Trends, mind Oil's "Baby Blues": they are curling up, albeit from still below the -80% axis; however by Market Values, price is some 10 points low, all such that we expect some near-term rally for Oil; as well, Oil's cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. May's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
17 Jun '19, 14:19 Central Euro Time: The current edition of The Gold Update, No. 500, depicts the extremes of the S&P 500's valuation vs. its lack of earnings substance, the diabolical levels of the 3Ds of Debasement, Debt and Derivatives, and overblown condition of the Gold/Silver ratio (the "live: reading at present being 90.4x) all of having becoming "the norm". As to today, Oil -0.9% is the BEGOS Markets weakest component whilst firmest (barely) is the Euro +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB's Index.
14 Jun '19, 14:50 Central Euro Time: Silver +1.3% is the leader amongst the otherwise mixed BEGOS Markets, which finds Copper -0.5% the weakest of the bunch; Oil, despite the tanker issues in the Gulf is actually -0.1% and the narrowest-traded component with an EDTR tracing of just 46%; rangiest is Gold's 127% tracing. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are higher still albeit price has yet to follow suit as we expect it shall, (proper cash management notwithstanding). Cac volume for the EuroCurrencies is moving from Jun into Sep, as is that for the Spoo. Quite a dose of incoming data is arriving for the Econ Baro, including Jun's UofM Sentiment, May's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Apr's Business Inventories.
13 Jun '19, 11:49 Central Euro Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets big winner to this point, +3.0%; its has traced 105% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is moderate. Only Copper is in the red, -0.5%, albeit at one point the Spoo (at present +0.3%) was -0.5%. The red metal yesterday confirmed its "Baby Blues" crossing above their -80%, generally suggestive of higher levels near-term, despite today's weakness. Of note, US spending through eight months of its fiscal year exceeded $3 trillion for the very 1st time. May's Ex/Im pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Jun '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: A mirror image of what we had at this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' safe haven components getting the bid at the expense of those economically-driven, the biggest wallop hitting Copper -2.5%; the PMs are being benefited the most with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.5%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo -0.4% nonetheless finds its Market Market at +70 which is an extremely high reading; per Market Trends, the Spoo's ascending "Baby Blues" are stalling having come up to the center 0% axis. The Econ Baro looks to May's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 Jun '19, 12:30 Central Euro Time: Similar to this point yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components are getting the bid, led by Copper +0.8% and then Oil +0.6% and the Spoo +0.4%; the balance of the bunch are essentially flat-to-lower with Gold per the Update looking to "fail from the same place" off the most at -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, mind the Bond's "Baby Blues" as they appear poised to fall through their +80% level, which in turn would be indicative of lower prices near-term. Due for the Econ Baro is May's PPI.
10 Jun '19, 12:23 Central Euro Time: MexTariffTalk subduing finds the BEGOS Markets' safe haven components getting sold, the weakest being Silver -1.9% and Gold -0.9%: The Gold Update warns of the yellow metal running out of puff in this same area (1240s-1260s) as it has so repeatedly done over the past two years, price this session having dipped into the 1320s. The white metal's fallout is also highlighted by price having traced 138% of its EDTR; otherwise, volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. The session's firmest component is Copper +0.5%. The Econ Baro has a busy week for incoming metrics beginning tomorrow.
07 Jun '19, 13:54 Central Euro Time: With May's payrolls data in the balance, the Spoo +0.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Copper -0.9%; indeed save for the red metal's having traced 109% of its EDTR, the balance of the components' volatility is basically light. Per Market Values, Oil is some 9 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly distant reading, albeit 'twas 16 points sub-value back on 23 November, a very extreme downside difference at that time. That noted, per the tighter Market Magnets measure, price is but a couple points low. Due as well for the Econ Baro to close out the week are April's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit metrics.
06 Jun '19, 15:17 Central Euro Time: We know the Dollar must be down when all 8 BEGOS Markets are up: they are led by Silver +1.0%, followed by Oil +0.7% and then by Copper +0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the white metal notably having traced 113% of its EDTR; the Gold/Silver ratio is momentarily sub-90x, however anything above 80x we deem as extreme, as is the S&P's "live" P/E of 30.8x. As well, Gold appears quite high by both its smooth valuation line (per Market Values) as well as by its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro finds a wee reduction in Apr's Trade Deficit and Q1's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both as lower.
05 Jun '19, 11:47 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, save for the "unch" Bond, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Gold +0.8% followed by the Spoo +0.6%, these two markets moving toward positive correlation on hopes of FED interest rate easing. The yellow metal has traced 121% of its EDTR; otherwise, volatility is light-to-moderate. May's ADP job creation and ISM(Svc) data come due for the Econ Baro.
04 Jun '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Both Oil and Silver are -0.5%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; firmest is the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. For the 4th consecutive session Gold has posted a higher-high, today to this point at 1334: there is no structural or otherwise resistance from here up to 1349, the 20 Feb high from which Gold then retreated rather than challenge the 1360 level it achieved in both 2018 and 2017, let alone retake Base Camp 1377. Gold per Market Values is some 60 points above its smooth valuation line, (it greatest upside deviation the in the last 12 months is 85 points); and vis-à-vis its Market Magnet, price is some 38 points high which is quite extreme, this renewed safe haven momentum notwithstanding given a Fed rate cut(s) may be in the offing. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Factory Orders.
03 Jun '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo -0.3% is lower in starting the BEGOS Markets' week. Firmest is Oil +1.4%, followed by Gold and Silver both +0.9%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond tracing 137% of its EDTR. Gold has traded as high as 1322: both 1315 and 1325 are nearby prior peaks as denoted in The Gold Update, which highlights price's weekly parabolic trend has having flipped to Long and should price rise on a percentage basis typical to that of past Long trends, we may see the real battle unfold in the 1360s in a battle to retake Base Camp 1377. Note too the Gold/Silver ratio now at 90.0x. May's ISM(Mfg) and Vehicle Sales along with Apr's Construction Spending start a busy week for the Econ Baro. Update: our MRT for the Euro of 1.10625 is nixed as the 12-hr. MACD has swung back to positive.
31 May '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Tariff imposition toward Mexico is pressuring the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components: Oil is -1.8%, the Spoo -1.1%, and Copper -0.5%; Gold is the firmest of the bunch +0.6%, with price's high (1304) having come within 2 points of flipping the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 1306 to be eclipsed). Session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro is only marginally higher (+0.1%) such that the 12-hr. MACD is continuing its negative stance for the 1.10625 MRT. Included metrics for the Econ Baro today are Apr's Personal Income/Spending data along with the Fed's-favoured Core PCE Inflation read.
30 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Save for Copper -0.8%, the BEGOS Markets are lightly changed either way; volatility is moderate. Market Rhythms exhibiting follow-through have been reduced to a mere 7 whose signals are have been meeting that page's criteria ($1,000/cac at least 70% of the time); we've a new MRT for the Euro of 1.10625 based on its 12-hr. MACD crossing negatively from an entry level of 1.11505 ($1,100/cac; current price is 1.11520). The Bond's cac volume is moving from Jun into Sep. The Econ Baro looks to the 2nd read of Q1 GDP, plus Apr's Pending Home Sales.
29 May '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components are to the downside led by Oil -2.0%, Copper -1.1%, and the Spoo -0.6%; the latter's low this session (2782) has not been seen since 11 Mar; the save haven upside movers are led by the Bond +0.4% and Gold +0.3%; the Gold/Silver ratio is at its highest level since 2001: 89.4x. Gold's cac volume is moving from Jun into Aug. Overall session volatility is light-to-moderate. It remains the case at Market Trends that the only two of the bunch in 21-day linreg uptrends are the Bond and the Swiss Franc.
28 May '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Day 2 of the Tue GLOBEX session still finds Copper +0.3% as the firmest component, albeit what was weakest at this time yesterday, Oil, also is now +0.3%; off the most is Silver -0.6%, the Gold/Silver ratio up to 88.7x; volatility for the overall session remains moderate, the only outlier being the Bond which has traced 112% of its EDTR. Per Market Values, the Bond is a full 5 points above its smooth valuation line: typically that is an excessive distance, however during the S&P's 20% correction last autumn, the Bond reached as high as 10 points above that line. The Econ Baro looks to May's Consumer Confidence.
27 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The 2-day (for Tue settle) GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets mixed, the downside leader being Oil -0.7% and the upside leader being Copper +0.5%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal for the past 6 weeks as not really moving far from the upper area of The Box (1280-1240) and that the weekly parabolic Short trend is within range to flip to Long were 1306 to trade by Fri. At Market Rhythms the present group is but a wee 8 studies, indicative of prices having lacked the requisite follow-through to qualify for the list. Our Memorial Day trading halt is from 10:00-15:00 PT, (Stateside physical bourses being closed).
24 May '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil, which in the prior 3 sessions has dropped a cumulative 8.1%, is +0.7%, followed by the Spoo +0.6% and Copper +0.5%; Silver -0.2% is the BEGOS Markets weak link; volatility is light-to-moderate as StateSide we glide into the Memorial Day weekend incorporating a 5-hour trading halt (with the bourses closed) for Monday's remembrance. By Market Values, Oil is 5 points below its smooth valuation line: we've seen it as much as -15 points this past Nov; by Markets Magnets, price is 3 points "low". The Econ Baro concludes a light week of incoming data with Apr's Durable Goods.
23 May '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Our MRT for Oil (65.94) is quickly nixed as the daily Price Oscillator whipsaws back to the negative side; after falling 2.6% yesterday, price is down another 1.4% this session and is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo -0.8%; firmest are the Bond, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Despite the S&P 500 being -4% from its all-time high just back on 01 May, our "live" P/E remains up at an extreme level of 30.7x; similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio is in rarefied air at 88.3x. Today's Econ Baro looks to Apr's New Home Sales.
22 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper -0.9% in trading at 2.6885 has not been this low since 25 Jan; 2nd weakest this session is Oil, -0.5%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and again we've volatility as light-to-moderate. Oil's daily Price Oscillator has triggered an aggressive MRT from an entry level of 62.64 for 65.94, ($3,300/cac); Oil's 21-day linreg trend is down, however per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are rising as such downtrend's consistency becomes less so. The minutes from the 30 April/01 May FOMC meeting are expected to suggest a neutral stance for the balance of 2019.
21 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The safe haven BEGOS Markets return to being out-of-favour whilst leading to the upside are Oil 0.6% followed by the Spoo +0.4%; weakest is Silver -0.4%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, and as was initially mentioned in the current edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are now accelerating their move lower such that the 21-day linreg uptrend may reach its end in the next day or two; still, price itself (1274) remains fairly secured to the upper area of The Box (1280-1240). Apr's Existing Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
20 May '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6% are the BEGOS Markets weak links in kicking off the new week, whilst both Oil +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.2% get the bid; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Rhythms the current list of studies has narrowed to just 10, indicative of components turning back on themselves even in an environment of generally widening Market Ranges. The Gold Update highlights the Gold/Silver Ratio's having reaching a record high level for this millennium. Q1 Earnings Season is in the books: for the 431 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 63% bettered Q1 of a year ago, the first year-over-year comparison under the lowered corporate tax rate established from 2018. Still, the "live" P/E remains a unsustainably high 30.6x.
17 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Euro (as anticipated per yesterday's note) has moved sub-1.12, although contrary to what we penned, it had settled in the 1.11s twice since April, prior to which not having so done since June 2017. Today, save for Oil +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver and Copper, both -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is at a millennium-to-date high of 88.8x, although during January 1991 'twas briefly just shy of 100x. Oil's cac volume is rolling from Jun into Jul. Due for the Econ Baro are May's UofM Sentiment Survey and Apr's Leading Indicators.
16 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil +1.0%, Copper + 0.6% and the Spoo +0.4% are the upside leaders of the BEGOS Markets; weakest is Gold -0.2%; volatility is mostly light. Both the Euro's 12-hr. MACD and Price Oscillator confirmed negative crossings, albeit shallow, at 00:00 PT, suggestive of a move sub-1.12000, an area not traded since June 2017; given per Market Trends the Euro's "Baby Blues" are rising, we're not setting a specific MRT, although both studies are on the present Market Rhythms list. The Econ Baro looks to May's Philly Fed Index plus Apr's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 May '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets differ lightly either way, the largest net change at present being the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the Bond and Gold are in 21-day linreg uptrends, those for the other 6 components all being negative. Prior to yesterday's bounce, the Spoo was nearly 80 points astray of its Market Magnet, (a fairly extreme distance in either direction). Per Market Profiles, the Spoo now at 2834 sports a swath of trading resistance from 2865 to 2892. The Econ Baro takes in a bevy of data today: May's NY Empire State Index and NAHB Housing Index, April's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and Mar's Business Inventories.
14 May '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets components are seeing some firmness: Oil is +1.5%, the Spoo +0.7% and Copper + 0.3%; weakest is Gold -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, albeit per Market Ranges, EDTRs for the most part have risen of late. Per the Market Rhythms page, the current list features a 1-hr. study (such short time frames are rather rare there), it being for the Spoo's Parabolics: as of yesterday's close, 7 of the 10 crossings (since 06 May) have followed through by at least 22 additional points ($1,100/cac) as the Spoo's EDTR has doubled in just the last 2 weeks; (mind one's prudent cash management as with all the listed Rhythms). The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Ex/Im pricing.
13 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo -1.3% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets commencing the seek, followed by Copper -1.2% and then Silver -0.8%: the Gold/Silver ratio is 87.6x, practically an all-time high (88.4x, 21 Nov '08). Firmest are Oil +1.2%, the Bond +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Despite the recent selling in the S&P 500, our "live" P/E is 30.5x and the money needed to move the Index 1 point ($360k) comparatively frothy compared to the year-to-date average ($649). Q1 Earnings Season enters its final week. The Gold Update points to price's ongoing comatose state.
10 May '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher led by Oil +0.9% and Copper +0.6%; only the Spoo -0.3% and the Bond -0.1% are in the red; volatility is light-to-moderate, the one outlier being the Spoo which has traced 108% of its EDTR given newly imposed tariff concerns. The reduced level in the S&P this week has brought the "live" P/E down to (a still very high) 28.9x, and with a week still to run in Earnings Season for Q1, 65% of the S&P companies having reported have bettered their bottom lines from the like period a year ago. Meanwhile the Gold/Silver ratio remains near historical highs at 86.9x. Apr's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
09 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets safe have components are getting the bid, led by the Bond +0.3%, Gold +0.2% and the Swiss Franc +0.1%; weakest is the Spoo -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) extended down to their 0% axis, provisionally rendering the end of the 21-day trend as being positive for the first time since 11 January after which it had flipped from down to up. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's PPI as well Mar's Trade Deficit and that month's reading on Wholesale Inventories.
08 May '19, 04:08 Pacific Time: Down are the economically-driven BEGOS Markets whilst up are the safe havens. Weakest is Copper -0.6%, followed by the Spoo -0.5%; firmest is Gold +0.5% followed by the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate within the context that EDTRs amongst the components per Market Ranges are mostly expanding. At Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are stretching their downside decline; those for the PMs are accelerating higher, albeit their overall 21-day linreg trends are still negative. The Econ Baro awaits inflation data due Thu and Fri.
07 May '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo fell a full 20 points in its final minute of trading yesterday (at 13:59 PT); thus as we measure all of the BEGOS Markets changes per the 14:00 PT Globex close, the Spoo at present is +5 points (+0.2%), whilst other conventional measures have it as -18 points; only the Bond +0.1% also is higher; weakest is Copper -1.6% followed by Oil -1.4%; volatility runs from light for Gold with just a 30% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 109% tracing. Much of the S&P's skittishness is being blamed on trade/tariff relations with China rather than on the Index remaining excessively overbought by earnings standards, the "live" P/E at 30.9x. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall.
06 May '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo -1.7% is the BEGOS Markets' weakest component, the FinMedia pointing to potential Chinese goods tariff increases per "tweets", well ahead of which concern was being already being voiced over the mid-east rocket barrages; firmest are the Bond +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having been shelved to sit atop The Box (1280-1240) whilst the balance of interest is in chasing stocks, the S&P 500 being terrifically overvalued. As well, Q1 Earnings Season specific to the S&P 500 for 2019 is posting an average improvement of just +1% over the like period in 2018.
03 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly split ahead of Apr's payrolls data: the economically-driven components are higher led by Oil +0.5% whilst the balance are lower, the weakest being the Euro -0.2%; volatility too is essentially light. As noted, per Market Trends only the "Baby Blues" of the Bond and floor-crawling Swiss Franc are not falling; moreover the only one of the bunch with a rising 21-day linreg trendline is the Spoo, which itself by Market Values is 44 points above its smooth valuation line, whereas Gold is 40 points below same. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Apr's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 May '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold's 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, in turn nixing our aggressive MRT for 1302.3, albeit the conservative 1289.3 MRT was achieved; Gold today is -0.4%, 2nd weakest of the BEGOS Markets only to Oil -1.0%; up the most is the Spoo +0.4% followed by Copper +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" for the Bond are not falling; those for the Swiss Franc are crawling across the floor, whilst those for the other 6 components are mostly accelerating lower. Q1's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs along with Mar's Factory Orders are due for the Econ Baro.
01 May '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets metals are all lower, led by Silver -0.5%, Copper -0.3% and Gold -0.1%; firmest are the Swiss Franc +0.3% and the Euro +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Swiss Franc having traced 118% of its EDTR. The 12-hr. MACD for Gold whilst still positive is losing its momentum, the conservative MRT of 1289.3 already reached but the aggressive 1302.3 MRT looking a bit more doubtful; 'course we've the FOMC and Powell in the day's balance. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's ADP jobs and the ISM(Mfg) Index along with Mar's Construction Spending.
30 Apr '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Dollar must be down as all 8 of the BEGOS Markets are "unch" to higher with Oil +1.3% leading the pack followed by good gains in the metals; volatility again is moderate. Gold's 12-hr. MACD continues its positive journey such as to maintain the aggressive MRT of 1302.3, (as noted the conservative MRT of 1289.3 having been achieved); per Market Trends, that (21-day linreg) for Gold is down, however its "Baby Blues" are in ascent for their 5th consecutive session, whilst at Market Values price is some 30 points below the smooth valuation line. We've another busy day for the Econ Baro, due for which are Q1's Employment Cost Index, Apr's Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, and Mar's Pending Home Sales.
29 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only Oil +0.4% and the Euro +0.1% are in the black to start the week for the BEGOS Markets; the metals are the weak link with Silver -0.8% and both Gold and Copper -0.5%; volatility is moderate. Despite price being down, Gold's 12-hr. MACD remains positive, the conservative MRT of 1289.3 having already be reached; the aggressive MRT of 1302.3 remains on the table barring the signal not crossing to negative. As noted, Silver's cac volume is rolling from May into Jul. The Gold Update highlights the oddity of Goldman pushing both Gold and Copper on the Long side for the year's second half, but Silver on the Short side. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with both delayed and current Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE readings.
26 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Markets gainers with Copper +0.5% and Gold and Silver both +0.3%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is a lofty 85.8x; to the downside, weakest is Oil -1.7%, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 121%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Gold's 12-hr. MACD remains positive and the MRTs (1289.3 conservative and 1302.3 aggressive) intact. Copper's daily Price Oscillator has confirmed going negative from the 2.8650 level (basis Jul) for an MRT of 2.8210 ($1,100/cac); Copper's cac volume is rolling from May into Jul, as so shall Silver's do come Monday. Headlining the Econ Baro today is the first peek at Q1 GDP.
25 Apr '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper -1.1% is off the most amongst the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver -0.5%; firmest is Oil +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal having traced 105% of its EDTR. Gold's 12-hr. MACD confirmed a positive crossing (at 00:00 PT) from a price of 1278.3 giving us a conservative MRT of 1289.3 ($1,100/cac) and an aggressive MRT of 1302.3 ($2,400/cac); per Market Values, the yellow metal is (in real-time) 43 points below its smooth valuation line, and price settled yesterday some 9 points below its Market Magnet. Mar's Durable Goods come due for the Econ Baro.
24 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The S&P 500 yesterday posted an all-time closing high (2934); the all-time intra-day high remains 2491 (22 Sep '18). This session finds the BEGOS Markets with just 2 components barely in the black, Copper and the Bond both +0.1%; weakest is Oil -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Our MRT for the Spoo of 2845 was nixed upon the daily MACD confirming a positive cross at yesterday's close; only 2 of the past 5 daily MACD Short signals have reached their targets, whereas 4 of the past 5 Longs have so done. The FinMedia is praising Q1 earnings: with 89 of the S&P 500 companies having reported, 71% have bettered Q1 of a year ago; however our "live" P/E is a perilously high 32.1x.
23 Apr '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: 'Tis again a mixed session for the BEGOS Markets: up the most is Oil +0.4%, down the most are Silver and the Swiss Franc, both -0.4%, the latter leading the EDTR tracings at 109%; the volatility for the balance of bunch is light-to-moderate. The daily MACD for the Spoo still is negative, albeit the crossover thus far is shallow at best: still, the 2845 MRT remains in place. From the Market Values page Gold shows as some 50 points below its smooth valuation line whilst Oil is 6 full points above same. Mar's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
22 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil launches out of the chute, +2.1% to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, as well with a robust EDTR tracing of 184%; the balance of the bunch are comparably docile with no one component presently changed by 0.3% either way and volatility otherwise light; (major bourses in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia continue their long weekend holiday). The Spoo's daily MACD has confirmed a negative cross from an entry level of 2901.00 with an MRT of 2845 ($2,800/cac); The Gold Update again notes the S&P as being "wildly overbought", the P/E excessive and moneyflow thin; the yellow metal itself settled last week in The Box (1280-1240) but has since barely crept above it early on. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's Existing Home Sales report.
18 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: This the final trading session until that for Sun/Mon, albeit tomorrow brings the release of Mar's Housing Starts/Permits. The BEGOS Markets are quite mixed with the Bond best at +0.4% whilst worst is Copper -1.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal leading the EDTR tracings at 136% followed by the Euro at 130%; the latter's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally gone negative and looks to so confirm come 06:00 PT such that the MRT for 1.14160 shall be nixed. Due today for the Econ Baro is Apr's Philly Fed Index, Mar's Retail Sales and Leading Indicators, and Feb's Business Inventories. In making lows for the year, Gold (1277) has returned down into the upper reaches of "The Box" (1280-1240) as 'twill be noted in the Saturday's Gold Update.
17 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only Copper +1.0% is showing any material net move, the balance of the BEGOS Markets otherwise little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro +0.2% does lead the EDTR tracings at 94% and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are rising toward their 0% axis; as well, the 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive in support of our 1.14160 MRT. At Market Ranges one sees their narrowing is stark pretty much across the board, in turn leading to a shorter list of candidates on the Market Rhythms page. Oil's cac vol is rolling from May into Jun. Feb's Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro, plus the Fed releases its Tan Tome.
16 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.3% and Copper "unch", the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, but not by much, the weakest two being Gold and Silver both -0.3% just as they were 'round this time yesterday; volatility is light-to-moderate. Still positive is the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward maintaining our MRT of 1.14160. The "wildly overbought" S&P so remains, its daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics readings all with red "sell" flags for 7 straight sessions, albeit by both Market Values and Market Magnets we've seen worse extremes than as present; still the moneyflow is thinning and the P/E unsustainably high should history again will out. For the Econ Baro we've Mar's IndProd/CapUtil and Apr's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Apr '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil -0.6% along with the metals triumvirate of Copper -0.5% and both Gold and Silver -0.3% are the BEGOS Markets downside leaders; the balance of the bunch are little changed; volatility is light. For the Euro our 1.14160 MRT is still in play per the positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's weekly net settles as tightly within the mid-"Whiny 1290s" these last few weeks, but the S&P's daily classic technical measures as being "wildly overbought". The Econ Baro starts a fairly busy week for incoming data with the Apr's NY State Empire Index.
12 Apr '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: During a portion of yesterday's session, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the red, generally meaning the Dollar is getting the bid; now, save for the Bond -0.5% -- it also having already traced 105% of its EDTR -- the balance of the 7 other components are up, led by Copper +1.9% (hello China trade deal?) and Oil +1.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive with the MRT of 1.14160. The S&P 500 remains extremely overbought by classic technical measures (daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics), along with the frothy moneyflow and beyond-expensive P/E. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's UofM Sentiment and Feb's Ex/Im prices.
11 Apr '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo, just +0.1%, is up amongst the BEGOS Markets; "unch" are the EuroCurrencies, whilst the downside leader is Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate; at Market Ranges and per our 05 Apr note, EDTRs continue narrowing, in some cases to year-over-year lows. The Euro, at present 1.13360, still is maintaining its positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward our 1.14160 MRT. The S&P 500, with our "live" P/E at 31.6x, is near-term extremely overbought by various classic textbook technical measures; moreover, the amount of money to move the S&P 1 point which peaked at over $900k in Jan, continues to drop, yesterday falling into the $400k range. Mar's PPI arrives for the Econ Baro.
10 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, Oil and the Spoo with the most net change at the moment of +0.3%; volatility is light with much high-level fundamentals in waiting, including an "emergency" Brexit summit, the ECB and Draghi (today rather than on the traditional Thu), banking CEOs giving Congressional testimony, and the FOMC's minutes from last month's meeting. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator is maintaining its positive track thus keeping our 1.14160 MRT intact, albeit Draghi's commentary can affect that. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's CPI.
09 Apr '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only the Swiss Franc and the Spoo are lower, and just barely at that, the metals triumvirate again the BEGOS Markets leaders, the firmest of which is Copper +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday at 12:00 PT the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a Long signal from that period's opening level of 1.13280, (at present 1.13460), for an MRT of 1.14160 ($1,100/cac); per Market Profiles, the Euro's most dominant supporter is 1.13000; but as a caution per Market Trends, the Euro's descending "Baby Blues" are contrary to price's recent rising. 'Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro, however Q1 earnings shall begin their appearance.
08 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Market leaders with Copper +1.1%, Gold +0.5% and Silver +0.3%; weakest is the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having recorded its 6th week of parabolic Short trend, albeit price is nor really declining; the piece also cites the divergence between the rising S&P and falling Econ Baro as the most vast since the Baro's inception back in 1998; due for it today is Feb's Factory Orders. Importantly with Q1 Earnings Season commencing, 'tis the first one for which comparison to a year ago will be under like tax cut rules.
05 Apr '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets again are expectedly subtle and lightly mixed either way, Oil being the weakest component -0.4% and Silver the firmest +0.2%; only 2 of the bunch have traced better than 50% (and barely that) of their EDTRs, namely Gold and the Bond. At Market Ranges, save for those same two markets, EDTRs are low looking back through a year ago. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are accelerating lower, but not as much so for Gold per the real-time reading. 'Course, Mar's payrolls report need be negotiated in about an hour's time.
04 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: A day ahead of StateSide jobs data we've another light-volatility session for the BEGOS Markets which are little changed in either direction: firmest is Oil +0.3% and weakest is Silver -0.4%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 31.3x. At Market Magnets, both Oil and the Spoo appear "high" and the Bond "low". Per Market Trends, 6 of the 8 components are exhibiting 21-day linreg uptrends: only that for Silver and Copper are down. And via Market Values, Oil is still some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line. Beyond Thu's usual Jobless Claims, 'tis otherwise a quiet day for the Econ Baro, the upward divergence from it by the S&P remaining forebodingly stark as ever.
03 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.5% is lower, the balance of the 7 other Markets moving higher with Copper leading the pack +0.9% followed by the Spoo +0.5%; volatility ranges from light for Gold which has traced just 28% of its EDTR to robust as the Bond's tracing is 100%. On the list of Market Rhythms is the Spoo's 1-hr. Price Oscillator for which 9 of its past 10 signals have followed through to a move of at least 20 points ($1,000/cac): the Rhythm's median duration is 2-3 calendar days. Due for the Baro today is Mar's ADP jobs data and the month's ISM(Svc) report.
02 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Light volatility marks the BEGOS Markets with only Copper and Silver having traced a bit better than 50% of their respective EDTRs; Oil +0.5% is the firmest of the bunch whilst weakest is Copper -0.6%. In settling yesterday at 2867, the S&P is just over 70 points from its all-time high of 2940; our call from that level for a 27% correction down to 2154 did reach as far as 20% to 2347, but we've obviously not ruled out the return all the way down to 2154, especially as you know ad nausea the "live" P/E being now 31.6x and the frothy-thin Moneyflow data. In fact per Market Values, the Spoo is only some 56 points "high" above its smooth valuation line, whereas Oil is a 5 full points above its. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Durable Orders.
1 Apr '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Gold Update points to the 3 economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets leading the pack through Q1: this session, the same group are firmly starting Q2 with Oil +1.1% and both Copper and the Spoo +0.6%; volatility is moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. The Gold Update also notes on the Econ Baro graphic therein of it now at the low level which first reached down to in 2008 then saw the S&P's 51% correction into 2009. Due for the Baro today are Mar's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, Feb's Retail Sales and Construction Spending, and Jan's Business Inventories.
29 Mar '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' rocker: 'tis +1.5% and has traced 114% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate with a bevy of incoming data due for the Econ Baro, including Mar's Chicago PMI, Feb's Personal Income and New Home Sales, and Jan's delayed readings on Personal Spending along with the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading. Save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the components are all higher, the 2nd firmest being Oil +1.0%. We've nixed our Spoo MRT of 2789.75 as the 4-hr. Parabolics just confirmed flipping back to Long at 04:00 PT. 'Tis already the final trading day of Q1; (it goes quickly). The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x.
28 Mar '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +0.6% and the mirroring downside leader being Oil -0.6%; volatility is moderate with the Bond leading the EDTR tracings at 76%. Gold's cac volume is moving from Apr into Jun. The list at Market Rhythms has increased: one we're watching is the Spoo's 4-hr. Parabolics which confirmed a flip to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT from an entry of 2809.75 with an MRT of 2789.75 ($1,000/cac). The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.
27 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The save haven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Bond +0.5%; those that are economically-driven are lower, namely Oil -0.9% and both Copper and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 129%. The Bond tapped 150^00 this session, its highest trade since 18 Jan 2018; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating higher and nearing their +80% axis, and yet per Market Values price is only 2 points above the smooth valuation line; but as a near-term caution, price appears well-extended above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro awaits Mar's Consumer Confidence.
26 Mar '19, 06:14 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a mild downside bias; only Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.3%; at this early point of the session volatility is light with only the Bond displaying any material EDTR tracing at 63%. At Market Trends, with the exception of those for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other "Baby Blues" are in ascent. Per Market Values, none of the 5 primary components are significantly away from their smooth valuation lines. Due for the Econ Baro today are Feb's Housing Starts/Permits.
25 Mar '19, 12:59 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week mixed with a bevy of incoming Econ Data for the Econ Baro throughout. Plus-siders include the metals, whilst Oil, the Bond and the Spoo are weaker; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the buoyant, bidding nature supportive of price despite the parabolic Trend having completed its fourth week to the ShortSide; per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are sporting an adroit turnaround to the upside, whilst at Market Values, Gold is actually below (by 16 points) its smooth valuation line.
22 Mar '19, 14:03 Central Euro Time: With Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.1%, one may sense where the BEGOS Markets bid is: the Bond, +0.7, along with Gold +0.2%; volatility is notably robust with 4 of the 8 components tracing beyond 100% of their EDTRs. Per Markets Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are in real-time accelerating their fall whilst price has fallen below the base of the 10-day Market Profile. The amount of money it takes to move the S&P 500 1 point has now been reduced from over $900k in January to below $600k at present; the Index's live P/E is 31.8x. Incoming data for the Econ Baro today includes Feb's Existing Home Sales and Jan's Wholesale Inventories.
21 Mar '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: The red and white metals are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, Copper +1.1% and Silver +0.6%; weakest are Oil -0.3% and less so the EuroCurrencies; volatility again is moderate-to-robust with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 108%; nonetheless, Copper's EDTR is the narrowest 'tis been (0.391 points assigned for today) in better than a year. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are starkly deviating lower from price, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to down. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's Philly Fed Index and Feb's Leading (or by the Baro, lagging) Indicators.
20 Mar '19, 15:47 Central Euro Time: Heading toward the FOMC's "no change" rate decision we've the BEGOS Markets mixed: firmest at present is the Bond +0.3%; weakest is Silver -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, which is a bit unusual pre-Fed. From the current edition of The Gold Update: "[the FOMC] gathers this coming Tuesday/Wednesday (19-20 March) toward deciding to do nothing. For were they to do something -- be it a rate rise that the economy would not be able to sustain, or a rate reduction that would signal they've acknowledged the economy is weakening -- we 'spect either way the S&P 500 would not take it well. Rather, keep the complacency of denial alive as the can is further punted down the road. For 'tis all too fragile to do anything at this point."
19 Mar '19, 12:28 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Components are in the black which tells us (without peeking) the Dollar is working lower. Firmest is Copper +1.0% followed by Oil +0.8%; volatility is moderate. Despite Copper's gain, its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are (in real-time) crossing below their 0% axis as the linreg trend rotates from up to down; as well, the red metal's EDTR of 0.0410 points remains near the year-over-year low of 0.3960 points. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Factory Orders for which consensus expects some improvement.
18 Mar '19, 12:33 Central Euro Time: Only the Bond -0.1% is in the red to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, which are metals-led by Copper +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Apr into May. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal continuing to having a buoying bid in spite of the recent new weekly parabolic Short trend; the missive also highlights the S&P's having risen in the face of the thinning moneyflow, abnormally high P/E ratios, and lackluster Econ Baro, which today looks to the NAHB Housing Market Index.
15 Mar '19, 13:59 Central Euro Time: A weaker and worse-than-expected NY State Empire Index isn't keeping the Spoo down, it presently +0.3% even with Silver +1.0%, Gold +0.5% and the Bond as well +0.3%; only Oil and the Swiss Franc are in the red; volatility is moderate although Silver has traced 102 % of its EDTR. Cac Volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun as First Position is Mon. Still on tap for the Econ Baro this session is Mar's UofM Sentiment Survey and Feb's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization. The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.7x and the moneyflow per point movement continues to decline.
14 Mar '19, 12:01 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -1.5% followed by Gold -1.4%; least weak is the Bond just fractionally negative; volatility is moderate-to-robust with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 120%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics flipped to Long thus nixing our MRT target for 2705.50. That said, we still deem the S&P as significantly expensive by the measures of Moneyflow, notably the declining amount of money it takes to move the S&P 1 point, its P/E ratio, and now again its Market Values reading which in real-time finds the Spoo 72 points above its smooth valuation line. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Ex/Im Prices and Jan's New Home Sales.
13 Mar '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, the PMs and Oil look firm early on with just the Bond mildly lower; volatility appears moderate. CPI, Durables and Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro. The Spoo's daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide, but just barely so.
12 Mar '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond -0.2% and the Spoo "unch", the BEGOS Markets are skewed to the upside led by Oil and Copper, both +1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Copper has traced 102% of its EDTR. The Spoo at 2788 still maintains its Parabolics to the ShortSide with our MRT for 2705.50, albeit a trade today above 2806 ought nix that Target; meanwhile per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their descent. In fact, except for the Bond, none of the Baby Blues for the other 7 components are rising. Jan's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Mar '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets as the week begins; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, keeping intact our MRT of 2705.50; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" whilst still above the 0% axis are accelerating their decline; and although per Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is smack on its smooth valuation line, the more daunting measures of thinning moneyflow and an all-too-expensive "live" p/e of 28.9x support lower levels. Jan's Retail Sales highlight the Econ Baro's start to a busy week.
08 Mar '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is more ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, which is a bit unusual given the Feb employment data has yet to be released; the metals triumvirate is notably rangy with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, followed by Gold's 85% and then Silver's 70%, the latter leading in the change department at +0.6%; Oil and Copper are the weakest components both -1.2% The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the Shortside: as cac volume is moving from Mar into Jun with 5 points of premium in the new front month, we're adding same to our MRT thus revising it from 2700.50 to 2705.50 basis Jun. Due too for the Econ Baro today are Jan's Housing Starts/Permits.
07 Mar '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: Another mostly light session thus far by volatility, the rangiest EDTR tracing being 65% by Gold, and yet price at present is "unch". For the yellow metal, the top of The Box (1280-1240) seems supportive given the lows of the prior 3 sessions (from yesterday back) have been 1284, 1282 and 1284; 1281 has traded in this session. Firmest is Oil +1.2% and weakest is Copper -0.5%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics have again quickly flipped back to Short effective the opening price of 2770.50: by the Market Rhythms page an aggressive MRT is 2700.50. Jan's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro along with Q4's Productivity data. ECB's Draghi at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets, the rangiest component being Gold with an EDTR tracing of 46%; that for the Swiss Franc is 25%; no one component is at present changed by 0.2% either way. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) below their +80% axis for the first time since 18 Jan; and per the aforementioned froth both herein and in The Gold Update: as of 29 Jan it took $911k to move the S&P 1 point; that has since been reduced to $675k. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's ADP jobs data and Dec's delayed Trade Deficit; in the latter part of the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
05 Mar '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Another split session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the safe havens being down and the economic-drivens being up. The latter are led by Copper +1.2% followed by Oil +0.5%; the Bond and the Swiss Franc both are -0.2%. Volatility is mostly light, save for Copper's EDTR tracing of 101%. We are nixing the Spoo's MRTs for 2759.75 (conservatively) and 2725.25 (aggressively) despite price at present (2793) being below 28 Feb's opening "entry" level of 2795 as yesterday's whipsaw range of 52 points was sufficient to flip the daily Parabolics back to Long, (provisionally by the week's up gap opening and then as confirmed at yesterday's close). That noted, the amount of money to move the S&P itself 1 point continues to dwindle, the Index thus supported only by froth, and certainly not earnings given our 30.5x "live" P/E.
04 Mar '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week quite mixed with volatility ranging from light to robust. The upside leaders are Oil +0.7% and the Spoo +0.2%, whilst to the downside are Copper -0.9% and Gold -0.6%. Despite Oil's rise, its EDTR tracing is just 39%; Copper's is 139%. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded for 2018: for the 463 S&P 500 components having reported, 330 (71%) bettered their bottom lines over 2017's Q4, however as we've noted, in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% bettered). The Gold Update points to price's pullback as healthy given the support of both "The Whiny 1290s" and The Box (1280-1240). Dec's delayed Construction Spending begins the Econ Baro's week.
01 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: This morning is the opposite of yesterday at this time: the safe havens are being offered led by Gold and Silver both -0.4%; getting the bid are Copper +0.8%, the Spoo +0.5%, and Oil +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Today's close shall make official the end of Gold's weekly parabolic Long trend which lasted 24 weeks, 3rd best by duration since 2001. Despite the Spoo being up, its daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide (barring 2813.25 trading today; price at present is 2802.00 and per its page, the "guesstimate high if an up day" is 2806.25). Per a check of economic calendars, items due today for the Econ Baro include Feb's ISM(Mfg) Index, Jan's Personal Income (but not Personal Spending), but both of those metrics as delayed for Dec, along with that month's read on Core PCE inflation.
28 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe havens are getting the bid ahead of our first peek at Stateside Q4 GDP: the Swiss Franc is +0.8% followed by Gold and Silver both +0.4%; down by same is Copper, followed by Oil and the Spoo both -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. After yesterday's note on a lack of mentioning MRTs, we've one that has since appeared worth noting: the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed a flip to Short per this session's opening (2795.25); price this session already has been as low 2781.75, however a conservative target is 2759.75 ($1,800/cac) or as construed from the Market Rhythms page 2725.25 ($3,500/cac). In addition to the GDP, the Econ Baro also looks to Feb's Chicago PMI.
27 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: 'Tis another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with Oil the upside leader at +1.0% and Silver the weakest component -0.4%, the cac volume for which is moving from Mar into May; volatility ranges from an robust EDTR tracing for the Swiss Franc of 114% down to only 38% for the Bond, its cac volume moving from Mar into Jun. We've not mentioned any MRTs in nearly a month: in reviewing those that have qualified in the end-of-day work we've noted a tendency for greater risk amounts in assessing the past recent signals: lending to that notion is the decline in components' volatility per the Market Ranges page as market's turn back on themselves rather than follow-through with continued trend. Fed Chair Powell moves his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee; the Econ Baro looks for Jan's Pending Home Sales and Dec's delayed Factory Orders.
26 Feb '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: We've a more subdued session for the BEGOS Markets as Fed Chair Powell's testimony Senate Banking Committee comes 'round 07:00 Pacific Time. Up the most is Oil +0.2% whilst off the most is Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. With respect to our noting the S&P 500 is supported neither by its components' earnings nor its Moneyflow, the Spoo itself by our Market Values page is better than 100 points above its smooth valuation line as has been the case through most of Feb. Copper's cac volume is moving from Mar into May. Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's Consumer Confidence and Dec's delayed Housing Starts/Building Permits.
25 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest of which is Oil -1.0%, with Copper firmest +0.4%. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal having locked in a 24th straight week of parabolic Long trend: as for what would be a 25th week, Gold need stay north of 1310; at present 'tis 1332. The missive also cites the deteriorating Moneyflow of the S&P 500 as the Index nonetheless moves higher, which by the Spoo looks to be the case come today's open. The Econ Baro begins a fairly busy week with Dec's Wholesale Inventories; the week also concludes Q4 Earnings Season, the weakest of 2018's four quarters. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 29.1x.
22 Feb '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets range from the EuroCurrencies being "unch" to Copper being +1.6% followed by Oil +1.0%; volatility ranges from the Euro having traced just 32% of its EDTR to Copper's 120% tracing. Per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for the PMs, (despite their recent price pops), are notably dropping: those for Gold settled yesterday at +59% but in real-time are now +53% whilst those for Silver had settled at +10% but are now +4%, the latter for the white metal likely affirming the 21-day LinReg trend changing to down come the new week. The Econ Baro has already concluded its week mildly lower.
21 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only the EuroCurrencies are barely not in the red, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being led lower by Silver -0.8% and then Copper -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Silver has traced 121% of its EDTR. From a year ago-to-date the Spoo's average EDTR is 39 points, at present 'tis 30 points, a level for which the actual trading range in the past 10 sessions has been exceeded only 4 times. The on-balance light week for incoming Econ Data brings a good dose of it today for the Econ Baro including Feb's Philly Fed Index, Jan's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales and Dec's delayed Durable Orders.
20 Feb '19, 04:37 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of the bunch actually being Silver +0.3%; the weakest is Oil -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Stocks look to stay quiet (by the "unch" Spoo) to at least start their session at this writing 'round 2778, the S&P 500 having closed Fri at 2776, (no trading Mon) and Tue at 2780. The Econ Baro has little input this week and as noted in yesterday's comment, the earnings results for 2018's weakest quarter are fairly known. Still, Gold this session has traded as high as 1349: that's just 28 points from key goal Base Camp 1377, a level not seen since 06 July 2016. Reclamation of 1377 then opens the door to our conservative forecast for these past two years of 1434.
19 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Day two for GLOBEX settlement today rightly expands the EDTR tracings led by Copper at 105%; both the red metal and Oil are +0.4%, second only to Gold +0.6%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. Silver continues to lack pace, +0.3%, despite being bettered by the other two metals: the Gold/Silver ratio at present is 84.4x. For the S&P 500's Q4 Earnings Season, about 85% of the companies due to report have so done with 73% bettering 2017's Q4, fairly confirming this is 2018's weakest quarter, (each of the prior three quarters showing 85% having improved; see our 05 Feb comment). Our "live" P/E ratio is 29.5x and all three time periods on the Moneyflow page continue to suggest the frothy S&P shall materially come down.
18 Feb '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The two-day session for Tue settlement finds the BEGOS Markets mostly higher, the two exceptions being the Bond -0.1% and the Spoo "unch"; firmest is Copper +0.5% followed by the EuroCurrencies both +0.3%; volatility is light to moderate; the trading halt spanning the two days is 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time. The Gold Update cites the reluctance to sell the yellow metal, its weekly parabolic Long trend now entering what would be a 24th week barring price slipping below 1300, (presently 1328). Per Market Values, Gold is only slightly above its smooth valuation line and equally so above its Market Magnet.
15 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the 2 EuroCurrencies which are only mildly lower, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper +1.2%, and then Gold, Silver and Oil all +0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate except for Copper which has traced 145% of its EDTR. Despite Copper's being firm today, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends for the red metal are in real-time again lower, and the daily MACD confirmed a (albeit scant) negative cross per today's open. Oil's cac volume is moving from Mar into Apr. The Econ Baro completes its week with 6 metrics due, including Feb's NY State Empire Index and UofM Consumer Sentiment, plus Jan's Ex/Im pricing and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
14 Feb '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only the PMs are mildly lower for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Silver -0.2%; otherwise to the upside, firmest is Oil +0.8% followed by Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have fallen below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels ahead: presently 2.80 there is structural support in the 2.73 area; there currently are 7 Copper studies in the Market Rhythms list, however the "net profit of all tests" are not that impressive, indicative that the occasional false signal mitigates a material portion of the true signals. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's PPI and Dec's delayed Retail Sales.
13 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit more settled that they've been at this time the prior two sessions, with volatility light-to moderate. Oil +0.6% is the upside leader; Silver -0.2% is the weak link and is also the rangiest component with a 65% EDTR tracing. Obviously per yesterday's comment we're very wary of the froth in the S&P 500: adding to that, yesterday's 35-point rise in the S&P carried Moneyflow support for just a 22-point rise, and per Market Values, the Spoo is now some 124 points above the smooth valuation line. Over these next 3 days the Econ Baro takes in 15 metrics including today's CPI data for Jan.
12 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round now yesterday, the Swiss Franc is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings, this time at 118%; the currency and the Bond are both -0.4%; only worse is Copper -0.5%. The big gainer is Oil +2.0% followed by the Spoo +0.7% and then the PMs; session volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo is again teasing the upper side of the S&P's "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719) which was completed Mon a week ago: per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 105 points above its smooth valuation line whilst per our Moneyflow page, the quarterly measure through yesterday's close suggests the Index ought be 173 points lower. The "live" P/E is at present 30.1x.
11 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red with both Oil and Copper off the most at -0.8%, followed by Silver -0.7% and then Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having had "nothing" upon which to trade but this ensuing week ought provide more impetus to so do, along with the notion that the weekly parabolic Long trend of 22 weeks by historical comparisons may soon run out of puff. Indeed the week is off to a busy trading start with volatility moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 116%.
08 Feb '19, 04:40 Pacific Time: Another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with a lean to the downside, Oil and the Spoo again both -0.5%; the Bond, Gold and Silver are all +0.2%; volatility is mostly light, the Econ Baro having completed its intake of metrics for the week. As noted yesterday Market Ranges continue to compress; at Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) perceptively starting to roll over, whilst those for Oil have (in real-time) taken a notable drop today having settled yesterday at +72% but are now at +51%. Gold appears en route to completing a 22nd week of parabolic Long trend which would rank alone as 4th from 2001-to-date.
07 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Yesterday's reports due for Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs are delayed in the wake of the gov't shutdown. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with both Oil and the Spoo -0.5% and the Bond and Copper both +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. The recent narrowing in components' volatility stands stark at the Market Ranges Page especially for the Spoo, Oil and EuroCurrencies. At our page for Moneyflow, that for the S&P 500 continues unsupportive for the Index across all 3 time periods, plus our "live" P/E remains at very lofty levels, 32.2x at present.
06 Feb '19, 04:36 Pacific Time: The only BEGOS Market in the black is Copper +0.2%, otherwise, the Bond is "unch" and the other components are in the red led by Silver -0.8% and then Oil -0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) right at its smooth valuation line, however the Euro is nearly 0.04 points low. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are crossing below their -80% axis; thus the PMs are struggling to stay firm as the EuroCurrencies have somewhat weakened. Due for the Econ Baro are Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus the delayed Trade Deficit for Nov.
05 Feb '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Yesterday the S&P 500 completed its "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719): 'twould be ideal from here to resume our still-expected 27% correction to 2154. That said, the Spoo +0.2% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Gold and Copper both +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are down, led by Oil -0.8%; volatility is light. Recorded are now half of the S&P companies due to report within Q4 Earnings Season and "only" 75% have bettered the prior year's like quarter, however that number was 85% in each of the prior three quarters.
04 Feb '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: Save for the "unch" Spoo, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are down to start the week, the PM's being the weakest of the bunch with Silver -1.0% and Gold -0.5% as is Oil; volatility is moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 92%. The Gold Update highlights this past Jan as "ordinary" for the yellow metal and notes that the weekly parabolic flip price to Short would arrive above The Box (1240-1280); Gold's current weekly parabolic Long trend at 21 weeks duration ties for 4th on the Long side since 2001. Nov's delayed Factory Orders report comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Feb '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the bias being to the downside led by Copper -0.8%, Oil -0.5%, and both Silver and the Spoo -0.4%; the EuroCurrencies and the Bond are mildly higher; volatility is mostly moderate, the laggard being the Spoo's EDTR tracing of just 28% with the Jan jobs data in the balance. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Jan's ISM Index plus more gov't shutdown catchup metrics for Nov's Construction Spending and Wholesale Inventories. The FinMedia is quite a-buzz about the S&P 500's best Jan in 32 years, yet the Index is only where 'twas back on 07 Dec, indeed having almost completed a "golden ratio" retracement to 2719 (basis the Sep high to the Dec low).
31 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolic Short signals on both Oil and the Spoo were essentially "one day wonder whipsaws", both flipping right back to Long and nixing our MRTs respectively of 51.12 and 2576.25. Indeed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are modestly higher and volatility is again light-to-moderate, the Euro being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 58%, the tightest being the Spoo with just a 27% tracing. Delayed by the gov't shutdown, Nov's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, along with Jan's Chicago PMI and Q4's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil's daily Parabolic remain Short despite price (53.85) rising for the 2nd straight session: but a trade not that much higher through 54.18 would nix the 51.12 MRT as the study would flip to Long; still, Oil's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are beginning to descend. Meanwhile, the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Short for an MRT of 2576.25. Save for the Swiss Franc and the Bond, the BEGOS Markets are higher, Oil indeed the firmest +1.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate ahead of the Fed. Due for Econ Baro are Jan's ADP jobs data and Dec's Pending Home Sales.
29 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil begins the session with a new MRT of 51.12 as the daily Parabolics confirm a flip to Short; there is some entry advantage with price presently 52.35, up from the opening trigger of 52.12. Indeed, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Market are "unch" to higher, the most being Copper +0.7% followed by both Silver and Copper +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, but the Bond with just a 28% tracing. The Econ Baro kicks into gear for a busy data week with Jan's Consumer Confidence.
28 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets range from "unch" to lower, led by Oil -1.4%; volatility is mostly light with Silver the widest EDTR tracer at 64% and the Swiss Franc the narrowest at 33%. Gold at 1299 has been struggling to maintain its final hour Friday pop above 1300 to 1303 on well-above average volume for that specific trading hour (21:00-22:00 GMT) as is noted in The Gold Update; the yellow metal's parabolic Long trend of 20 weeks ties for 5th best amongst Long trends this millennium. Gold's volume remains in the Feb cac but ought fully roll into Apr in the next day or so.
25 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's 50.85 MRT noted yesterday (generated Wed) was quickly nixed as the 8-hr. Moneyflow whipsaws across its signaling area (48-52 on a 0-100 scale); still, Oil -0.2% is only 1 of 2 BEGOS Markets which are lower, the other being the Bond -0.1%. Firmest is the Spoo +0.6% followed by the Euro, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate, the Euro again the rangiest of the bunch with a 70% EDTR tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all continue to work lower whilst those for Oil in real-time are just beginning to curl down from the +90% area.
24 Jan '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and Spoo, both +0.2%, are higher amongst the BEGOS Markets; down the most for the balance of the bunch is Silver -0.7%; volatility is mostly moderate, the rangiest component being the Euro with an EDTR tracing of 89% ahead of the ECB's policy statement followed by Draghi's press conference. Oil's 8-hr. Moneyflow produced an MRT yesterday (at 08:00 PT) for 50.85; however the entry point back then was 52.85; price at present is 52.16, thus the risk is dearer if nixed. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Leading Indicators, the consensus for which is negative.
23 Jan '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is again the BEGOS Markets leader, the weak link being the Bond -0.3%; volatility is light, exemplary that per Market Ranges all 8 components week-over-week have narrowing EDTRs. At Market Trends the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all find their "Baby Blues" in decline with room to spare for still lower price levels. And at Market Profiles only Oil and the Spoo are above their midpoints. As the inflow thickens for Q4 Earnings Season's results, 47 of the S&P 500 have reported with "only" 35 of those -- i.e. 74% -- bettering the prior year's like period: in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% had bettered; thus at least early on, Q4 is not keeping pace with 2018's prior quarters.
22 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues with Oil, -1.7% passing Copper -1.5% on the downside for the weakest BEGOS Market position; firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold is back atop The Box (1240-1280) at 1282, a Market Profile support level, however the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating lower, as is the case with Silver: the white metal shows no notable structural support until the 14.90s, thus threatening the recent run not quite up to 16. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed for MLK Day, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway with most of the BEGOS Markets working lower, led by Copper -0.8%, Silver -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has slipped back inside The Box (1240-1280) for the first time since 04 Jan: The Gold Update highlights price's narrow trading range through much of last week, prior to Fri's fall recording a net loss year-to-date. An avid reader points to the current Barron's piece on Newmont acquiring Goldcorp, and Barrick acquiring Randgold: both combinations ought foster materially improved management.
18 Jan '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Again we've Oil leading the BEGOS Markets, but this time to the upside, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +0.8%; the PMs are the weak links with Gold -0.6% and Silver -0.5%; the Gold/Silver ratio is 83.0x; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs at Market Trends are now breaking down more noticeably. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 85% whilst that for the Swiss Franc is just 20%. For Gold, the top of The Box (1240-1280) ought provide some structural support. For the Econ Baro, due are the UofM's Sentiment Survey for Jan and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for Dec.
17 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, again is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; Oil's cac volume is moving from Feb into Mar; 2nd weakest is the Spoo, -0.5% and firmest is the Bond, +0.2%; volatility is light. Gold's "Neverland" (i.e. The Whiny 1290s) is essentially keeping price therein entrapped: Gold's EDTR is 11 points, and yet its entire range thus far this week is but 10 points (from 1297 down to 1287; price at present is 1294); per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" as anticipated are now down (in real-time) to the +80% level; Silver's are beginning to accelerate lower, now down to +73%. Jan's Philly Fed Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
16 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, +0.8% and the Spoo, +0.1%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs have been falling for all 8 components, clearly the most being for the Spoo, followed by Oil. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have dropped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels ahead: we don't really see much structural support until the 14.90s; 'twould be a shame to give back all that working up through most of the 15 handle (on verra); Gold's Baby Blues are also lower (at +82% in real-time). Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed: Q4 Earnings Season is beginning to kick in and today brings the UK vote on Brexit (11:00 Pacific Time) ahead of which the Dollar is getting a bid, in turn finding the Swiss Franc -0.6%, the weakest of the bunch, followed closely by the Euro, -0.5%; to the upside the firmest component is Oil, +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro with the rangiest EDTR tracing at 94%, whilst that for Oil is but 33%. Per Markets Trends, Gold's and Silver's "Baby Blues" are a bit lower today for the 3rd straight session, albeit they remain above their respective +80% axes; more in free fall are those for the Bond and EuroCurrencies. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Both Copper and Oil are -1.2% to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.9%; Gold is firmest, +0.6%, and of note thereto, NEM is buying GG for $10B; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update stresses price revisiting "Neverland", aka The Whiny 1290s: year-to-date the 1290s have traded everyday and 'tis a zone within which price has had a tendency historically to get stuck; per Market Profiles, 1291 has been the most dominantly traded price for the past 2 weeks; for Silver, which is "unch" rather than up with Gold, 15.700 shows as the dominate price.
11 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Almost in mirrored reverse of what we saw at this time yesterday, save for the Spoo, -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Oil, +1.0% and then the metals triumvirate; volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver tracing 71% of its EDTR, but the Spoo's range continuing its narrowing with just a 17% tracing. Despite the Bond being firmer today, per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are accelerating their drop below the +80% axis: however with price presently 145^15, the 144-145 range from some 2 weeks back appears as price clustering. Incoming data due for the Econ Baro is highlighted by Dec's CPI.
10 Jan '19, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond which is "unch", the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, the recent winning streaks for both the Spoo, -0.5%, and Oil, -0.3%, poised to come to an end; at Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil have recovered from their respective extreme "low" readings to which we'd pointed in prior weeks. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc being the most rangy with an 82% tracing of its EDTR; such measure per Market Ranges for the Spoo reached as high as 82 on 27 Dec, since having declined to 67 for today; indeed yesterday's actual range was just 28 points. There are a number of FedHeads speaking today including Chairman Powell at the Econ Club of Washington.
09 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: To the upside the BEGOS Markets are led by Oil, +2.2% in rising for the 7th straight day; to the downside the PMs are weakest, but only mildly so with Gold -0.3% and Silver -0.2%; week-to-date for Gold the top of The Box (1240-1280) has been supportive; session volatility is light. In a note last evening to a trading colleague we wrote re: the Spoo that "...Following better than a month of quite “thin” bid and offer sizes (roughly 1/3 of “normal”), the Spoo’s sizes today were ramped up toward 2/3 of “normal”. The EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) remains extremely high, however has begun starting to drop as the liquidity thickens. The EDTR for Tuesday was 74 points (between the low and high) but the actual range was just 34 points, the third-narrowest since Thanksgiving Day..."
08 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The S&P (2450) now sits some 400 points below its all-time high (2940) and 400 points above our targeted correction low (2154); the Spoo at present (2569) is +0.6% suggesting the rally continue for a 3rd day; firmest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil, +0.8%, attempting a 6th straight up day; weakest is Gold, -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for each of Gold, Silver and the Bond appear poised to come off of their respective ceilings, whilst those for Copper look due to rise from the floor: however, once the selling resumes in the overall S&P correction, the safe havens ought resume getting the bid. Nov's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro late in the session.
07 Jan '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo had opened the week up as much as 0.9% "on China trade hopes"; 'tis presently -0.1%; leading to the upside is Oil, +1.8%; the PMs, EuroCurrencies and Bond all are higher by 0.4%-0.5%; Copper like the Spoo is marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. As traders return from the year-end holiday we'll see if thin size conditions persist such that volatility remains rampant: recall such was already the case well prior to the holidays; the EDTR for the Spoo is 77 points (of which 28 or 37% have been traced); notwithstanding Friday's rally, per Market Values the Spoo still shows as 96 points "low", but per MoneyFlow the suggestion is for the S&P to ultimately resolve lower. Dec's ISM(Svc) starts a light load of metrics for the Econ Baro's week; Q4 Earnings Season starts as well.
04 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil +2.9%, Copper +1.6% and the Spoo +1.2% are the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the latter's rise at present would recover 1/2 of yesterday's 62-point loss (-2.5%) in the S&P; the PMs are the weak links as is the Bond which is off the most at -0.4%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, recent trending has these specific components well-away from their smooth valuation lines: in real-time the Bond is 9 points "high", Gold is 80 points "high" and the Spoo is 154 points "low"; but the S&P itself by all three Moneyflow durations suggests still lower levels are ahead. Dec's jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
03 Jan '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The overnight change in the Spoo (presently -14.50 from the 14:00 Pacific Time GLOBEX close) is post the "fallout" from the negative AAPL outlook from which the Spoo had already dropped 20 points; thus at present, the S&P would decline some 35 points at the open; otherwise, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper, +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Of note, the Yen (not a formal BEGOS component) has traced 206% of its EDTR given its having had what is being termed a "flash crash" gap from the 14:00 close of .0092340 to the 15:00 open of .0094040 (or inversely -1.8% from 108.3 to 106.3). Due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP Employment data, the ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales.
02 Jan '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: The new year begins with a reversal of that which we saw on Monday, most of the BEGOS Markets now in the red with Oil off the most, -1.8%, followed by the Spoo, -1.5%; we continue view the S&P as in an overall 27% correction from 2940 ultimately to 2154: 75% of that course has been already traced, the S&P having reached down to 2347 a week ago. The Bond and Gold are to the upside in typical safe haven bid fashion. Rangiest of the bunch is Copper with a 113% tracing of its EDTR and overall volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per its Market Profile, Oil has slipped below its dominant supporter of 45.50 and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are extending their run lower.
(Note: Archived Commentary prior to 2019 back into 2013 is available upon request.)
