Earnings Season:
Truth (not Estimates)
The S&P 500:
--Valuation & Rankings
--MoneyFlow
BEGOS Markets:
Bond
Euro
Swiss Franc
Gold
Silver
Copper
Oil
S&P 500
BEGOS Measures:
Market Rhythms
Market Profiles
Market Trends
Market Values
Market Ranges
Market Magnets
12 May '21, 09:04 Central Euro Time: The Spoo early on is sporting its 3rd consecutive down day: in 2021, there's been only one other 3-down day stint and one of 6 down days. All the BEGOS Markets at present are trading within their respective NZ for today and volatility is moderate. Per our S&P MoneyFlow page, that reading remains ghastly. At Market Trends, that for the Spoo appears a day for two from rotating to negative; as you know, such trends have been positive for all 8 components since 'round mid-Apr; however that for the Bond is the first to crack provisionally to negative as of today. Due for the Econ Baro are Apr's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 May '21, 09:35 Central Euro Time: Far overdue (understatement) to decline, the S&P 500 finally is beginning to crack; as we've been noting, the ongoing negative MoneyFlow has been very telling, the lack of earnings vastly under-supportive of price, and the lean toward higher StateSide tax rates are being catalysts for lower S&P levels, as too, interest rates back up. Both Oil and the Spoo are trading below their NZ, however Copper is above same, the latter not having reached our "low if a down day" for 33 consecutive trading days. Specific to the Spoo, it has broken below the belly of its Market Profile such that upon 4140 being breached, we'd look for 4100, even a near-term return to 4000, (which really would only be a 5% correction).
10 May '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: Silver, Copper and Oil are trading above their NZ whilst below same are the Bond and the Euro; session volatility to begin the BEGOS Markets' week is mostly moderate, save for Copper which (+2.3%) has already traced 135% of its EDTR. The Gold Update credits the Fed with the asset valuation scare, made all the more so by the chart therein of the S&P and where it "ought perhaps be" had COVID never occurred: 'tis indicative of how stimulus money has found its home in the stock market; included as well is our horribly negative S&P Moneyflow graphic.
07 May '21, 09:59 Central Euro Time: Gold has (finally) returned to 1800+, in the process the weekly parabolic trend flipping from Short to Long. At present, just 1 BEGOS Market is not inside of its NZ, namely "unconscionable" Copper, now with a 31-day streak of not touching a "low if a down day". Session volatility is light ahead of the Apr Payrolls data. The Fed is (finally) acknowledging the "stretched valuations" (diplomatic understatement) of assets; (we've felt for quite some time 'tis the Fed's worst unspoken nightmare). The S&P Moneyflow is formidably negative and Earnings supportive of just 1/3 the current Index level. In addition to the jobs data, the Econ Baro also receives Mar's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
06 May '21, 09:40 Central Euro Time: Per Market Values, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" confirmed moving below their +80% axis, a highly reliable signal for lower price levels near-term: we see structural support in the 3979-3843 range (for a long overdue correction of at least 5%). Still, the Spoo this session is above its NZ as are all of the BEGOS Markets except the Bond and the Swiss Franc; volatility is moderate. The Euro's "Baby Blues" also slipped below their +80% level such as to suggest a price test of at least the mid-to-lower 1.19s. Copper has now traded for 30 consecutive days -- that's 6 weeks -- without touching the guesstimated "low if a down day". Due for the Econ Baro is Q1's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 May '21, 09:30 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ, whilst the Spoo trades above same; however, barring a substantive up session, the Spoo looks to its "Baby Blues " (see Market Trends) confirming a slip below their key +80% level come today's close such as to target lower price levels near-term. The balance of the BEGOS Markets are quiet and volatility is light-to-moderate. Well into Q1 Earnings Season finds 79% of the S&P 500's constituents having bettered their bottom lines, but the overall level of earnings is just one-third of that necessary to support the S&P's vast overvaluation. At the MoneyFlow page, the quarterly read shows the S&P as 447 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Apr's ADP jobs numbers and the ISM(Svc) Index.
04 May '21, 09:36 Central Euro Time: Yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets were up, Silver notably +4.0% such as to keep her "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) aloft. Today, all 8 components are down, notably with the EuroCurrencies, Gold and Copper all trading below their NZ; volatility is again moderate. The Spoo's daily Parabolics flipped from Long to Short, albeit given the relentless ascent of the Spoo these many months, this study's Shortside has not been met with much downside. Our "live" P/E for the S&P 500 has dropped from the 70s into the 60s with TSLA (1.8% of the Index) having nearly halved its own P/E, (to 585.9x; that for GM is 13.1x and for F 'tis 11.4x). Mar's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
03 May '21, 09:14 Central Euro Time: Both PMs are trading above their NZ as the BEGOS Markets start the week; this in spite of our near-term bearish tone in The Gold Update as various technical indicators have turned negative, including Gold's daily Parabolics having flipped from Long to Short. The balance of the BEGOS bunch are trading within their NZ and volatility even early on already is moderate. As was confirmed for Gold on Fri, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have slipped below their +80% level (see Market Trends), indicative of lower prices in the offing. The Econ Baro begins its relatively busy week with Apr's ISM Index and Mar's Construction Spending.
30 Apr '21, 09:52 Central Euro Time: Silver and Oil are trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same, and volatility is fairly light early on toward closing out Apr. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are the 1st of the bunch to crack below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels ahead: this may see the Mar low of 153^07 tested, (price is presently 157^03); both Gold and Silver are approaching similar "Baby Blues" stances, Gold without having reached our anticipated 1800 level. Today's Econ Baro looks to Apr's Chi PMI, Mar's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, plus Q1's Employment Cost Index.
29 Apr '21, 09:38 Central Euro Time: We've had days of late where 'round this time the BEGOS Markets either all are up or all are down; today we're split: Silver (for which the cac volume is rolling from Mar into Jul), Copper Oil and the Spoo are trading above their NZ; the Bond is trading below same, and the EuroCurrencies, plus Gold, too are trading down. Volatility is moderate. The S&P yesterday crossed above the 4200 level; the Spoo is not making progress toward closing its gap (now 155 points high in real-time) to its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro gets its first peek at Q1 GDP and Mar's Pending Home Sales.
28 Apr '21, 09:43 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, (9 if we include the ¥en): and all but Oil and the Spoo are trading below their NZ; volatility is well-moderate and may approach robust should some of the components exceed EDTR tracings of 100%, (i.e. post-FOMC at 18:00 GMT). Gold has struggled this week to achieve our anticipated 1800, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning to roll over, as too are those for the Bond. At Market Values, the Spoo still shows as excessively "high", some 153 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line. Copper's cac volume is moving from May into Jul.
27 Apr '21, 09:47 Central Euro Time: Just as was the case 'round this time yesterday, Copper (again +1.3%) is the BEGOS Markets' big winner and the only component trading above its NZ; the balance of the bunch are within same and volatility is again mostly moderate. By the conventional "textbook technicals", Copper is "moderately overbought" but not (yet?) "extremely overbought" as 'twas during the 12-25 Feb period. However, by our Market Magnet measure, Copper's deviation (+0.2260 points) is "extreme" such that a near-term drop (historically 2% to 12%) wouldn't be untoward. Apr's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Apr '21, 09:53 Central Euro Time: Copper (+1.3%) is the big winner in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets: the red metal is the only component trading above its NZ; below same are the Bond and Oil; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Trends, not only do all 8 components remain in linreg uptrends, but save for Copper and Oil, the respective levels of the "Baby Blues" for the other 6 markets are all +80% or higher. Yet by Market Values, only the Spoo is still at an extreme, reading in real-time as 178 points "high". The Gold Update supports price reaching at least 1800 this week, and again severely stresses the vast overvaluation of the S&P. The Econ Baro begins a fairly busy week with Mar's Durable Orders.
23 Apr '21, 09:58 Central Euro Time: The Euro and Copper are trading above their NZ, whilst below it is the Bond; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. At the page for the S&P's MoneyFlow, 'tis unsupportive on each of the weekly, monthly and quarterly bases; obvious by Earnings 'tis the same unsupportive issue, the "live" P/E at present 77.0x. Still by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking lower for their 4th consecutive session, now at the +86% level; and at Market Values, the Spoo's reading is (in real-time) 168 points "high". The Econ Baro concludes its quiet week with Mar's New Home Sales.
22 Apr '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc is trading above its NZ, Copper below its NZ, and the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are still above their +80% axis and all 8 components remains in linreg uptrends; yesterday's Spoo recovery now finds price (in real-time) 204 points above its smooth valuation line per Market Values. Gold is knocking on the door of 1800 having traded in the 1798 handle both yesterday and thus far today. The Econ Baro in a uneventful week to this point looks to Mar's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
21 Apr '21, 08:10 Central Euro Time: All 3 BEGOS Markets metals (aka the "triumvirate") are trading above their NZ; the balance of the bunch are within same and volatility is light at this early stage, yet ought turn moderate. The Spoo following a 2nd consecutive down day is still (in real-time) by Market Values 178 points above its smooth valuation line; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have reached above their +80% axis, however are just kinking a tad lower both yesterday and today: a confirmed stance below +80% would then suggest lower prices still; currently 4122, the 4123 level is the most dominantly-traded level of the past fortnight per the Market Profile.
20 Apr '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Euro, Copper and Oil are all trading above their NZ, whilst below same is the Bond; volatility is light-to-moderate and (per our prior comment) all 8 BEGOS Markets remain in linreg uptrends. Yesterday's -0.4% change nonetheless still finds price by Market Values now (in real-time) as 236 points above the smooth valuation line. Of the Spoo's 73 completed trading days year-to-date, consecutive down days have occurred but 13 times, (and at this writing the Spoo is +0.2% in the session). The "live" P/E of the S&P 500 is 77.5x, its yield is 1.377%, and the young Q1 Earnings Season is thus far showing improved results on balance, but the level of earnings themselves are nowhere supportive of the extremely overvalued S&P.
19 Apr '21, 09:32 Central Euro Time: The U.S. Money Supply ("M2") just topped $20 Trillion: see The Gold Update. The BEGOS Markets begin their week with Copper (+2.2%) trading above its NZ, the balance of the 7 other components being within same; volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 26% EDTR tracing to a 144% tracing already for Copper. At Market Trends, all 8 markets are now in linreg uptrends, the Dollar having weakened (though not materially) over the past 3 weeks. And at Market Values, the Spoo remains at an extreme "high" level, some 261 points so in real-time.
16 Apr '21, 09:21 Central Euro Time: Gold gained good ground (+1.6%) yesterday in trading as high as 1771 toward our "near-term" notion of 1800. So far today, 'tis quiet early on as are all the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper which is trading below its NZ; volatility is light. The S&P sits at a record-high 4170, the "live" P/E being 79.8, and our Market Values reading finding the Spoo (in real-time) 266 points above its smooth valuation line; the other 4 primary BEOGS components (Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil) are comparably much closer to their valuation lines. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with Apr's UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Mar's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Apr '21, 09:43 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 yesterday recorded just its 3rd down session of the past 10; with upside looking to resume today, the Spoo trading above its NZ as is the metals triumvirate; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ, and volatility is light-to-moderate. In spite of yesterday being lower, the Spoo is by Market Values (in real-time) 254 points above its smooth valuation line. Dollar weakness indeed has all 8 BEGOS Markets higher at the moment. The Econ Baro looks to a busy session of 9 incoming metrics, including Apr's NY State Empire, Philly Fed and NAHB Indexes, Mar's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Feb's Business Inventories.
14 Apr '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: The Spoo continues to creep higher into record territory; but despite the S&P's Moneyflow being strong yesterday, the Index is now by our textbook technical stance "extremely overbought" (given BollBands, Stochastics and RSI readings) such that selling historically has been in the offing from such measures. The S&P's "live" P/E is 80.5x. And the Spoo itself by Market Values reads (in real-time) as 262 points "high". At present however, the BEGOS Markets are quiet with just Copper and Oil trading above their NZ, and volatility is light. Mar's Ex/Im Pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Apr '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: The Bond, EuroCurrencies and Gold are all trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Ranges, narrowing volatility finds all 8 components with reduced EDTRs from both the prior day and the prior week. Nonetheless, our sense is given StateSide Tax Day come Thu, the Econ Baro's busy load, the beginning of Q1 Earnings Season, more $ trillions targeted to be spent and China's sabre-rattling, that trading ranges soon shall be expanding. An expected increase in retail inflation is due today for the Baro via Mar's CPI.
12 Apr '21, 10:09 Central Euro Time: Q1 Earnings Season commences with the "live" S&P 500 P/E at 76.0x, some 3-to-4 times what is taught in business school as "expensive". Save for the Bond (which is up but within its NZ), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, those below their NZ at present being the Euro, the metals triumvirate, and Oil; volatility is trending toward moderate. By Market Values, the Spoo is (in real-time) 245 points above its smooth valuation line as we continue anticipating an imminent move down, which by historical median would put the Spoo in the low 3900s (about -5%). The Gold Update underscores our near-term expectation of price moving up to 1800. The Econ Baro begins a week of 17 incoming metrics starting with Mar's Treasury Budget.
09 Apr '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets (9 if one includes the Yen) are in the red which means the Dollar is firmer today. 5 of the 8 are trading below their NZ: the Bond, the Euro, and the metals triumvirate; volatility is moderate. The Spoo settled at 4098, which by subtracting the negative fair value (of -9.30) places the S&P 500 above 4100: however, "that may be all she wrote" with the Spoo retracting thus far this session. By Market Values (in real-time) the Spoo still reads as 229 points "high" such that (per yesterday's comment) a 150-200 point imminent down move would (given historical precedent) be reasonable. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's PPI and Feb's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Apr '21, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The Spoo in this session has traded above its NZ to as high as 4092, which would place the S&P atop 4100. Also above their NZ are the Euro and the metals triumvirate; volatility is light-to-moderate. With reference to yesterday's Spoo Market Value extreme (now 229 points "high" in real-time), the historical median fallout would find the S&P 'round 3930 within a week's time, should such repeat; the four other primary BEGOS Markets are not sporting material deviations from their smooth valuation lines. Gold remains resilient: again a near-term run to 1800 wouldn't be untoward a wit.
07 Apr '21, 10:03 Central Euro Time: Our only Market at present trading outside (above) its NZ is the Bond, otherwise 'tis eerily quiet on the BEGOS front, with volatility mostly light. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are into their 4th session of flatlining near the +54% level rather than rising as had been the market's wont for better than a week on balance; at Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 213 points above its smooth valuation line which is extreme to the highside: the prior two like instances (16 Nov and 02 Sep) led to materially tradable selloffs. Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
06 Apr '21, 09:44 Central Euro Time: The Swiss Franc, Copper and (yes) the Spoo all are trading below their NZ, whilst Oil is trading above same; volatility is trending toward moderate as bourses globally get back to work following the extended weekend. The "live" P/E of the S&P is now 77.5x, some 3-to-4 times what is historically deemed as "expensive"; the 4000 milestone may finally manifest money managers taking money off the table, especially as debt yields are more materially departing upward from that on the S&P (1.413%) vs. 1.720% on the 10-yr. Note and 2.363% on the Bond. By our MoneyFlow page, performance remains sub-par to the S&P itself on both the monthly and quarterly charts.
05 Apr '21, 09:55 Central Euro Time: Starting the week for the BEGOS Markets we've just Copper trading above its NZ; below same are the Bond, Euro and Silver; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update underscores with respect to last week's price dive-and-recovery that volume on the way back up was triple that initially recorded on the way down, i.e. the buyers are in charge such that we anticipate 1800 as achievable near-term. As well, Gold is only 1 of 2 components with positive linregs (per Market Trends) at present, the other being that for the Spoo. The Econ Baro begins its week with Mar's ISM(Svc) Index and Feb's Factory Orders.
02 Apr '21, 08:33 Central Euro Time: The S&P has "against all odds" both traded and settled above 4000 for the first time: the "live" P/E is 74.8x and the yield 1.433%; that for the 10-Yr. US Note is 1.679% (and for the 30-Yr Bond is 2.340%). Although a holiday today, the BEGOS Markets' Bond, Eurocurrencies and Spoo are in abbreviated trading sessions (for which we'll account in Mon's trade date of 05 Apr) so as to account for the release of the Mar StateSide Payrolls data today at 12:30 GMT, after which we'll update the Econ Baro. The Spoo trades until 13:15 GMT and the Bond and Currencies until 15:15 GMT. Then tomorrow we've the 594th consecutive Sat edition of The Gold Update.
01 Apr '21, 09:19 Central Euro Time: The 1st day of Q2 is also the last trading day of this week for the BEGOS Markets, (albeit the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo shall have a smattering of overnight activity to accommodate tomorrow's StateSide payrolls report for Mar.). Thus far, both the Bond and Gold are above their NZ whilst below same are the Swiss Franc and Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P made a run yesterday toward 4000, only to fail from 3994: but the session's MoneyFlow was stronger than the change in the Index itself, suggesting the larger hands are seeking the numerical milestone, and by Market Trends, the Spoo's linreg remains decidedly up. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's ISM(Mfg) Index and Feb's Construction Spending.
31 Mar '21, 09:26 Central Euro Time: Oil is trading above its NZ, but the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is mostly light as Q1 draws to a close; of note, whilst not officially a BEGOS component, the Yen (which has been getting hammered of late) has traded 119% of its EDTR; but our 2 EuroCurrencies have both traded less than 50% to this point of the session. The PMs have slipped: recall from the current Gold Update our concern about their "Baby Blues" per Market Trends not looking "overly encouraging". Key inputs for the Econ Baro today include Mar's ADP Employment data and Chicago PMI, plus Feb's Pending Home Sales.
30 Mar '21, 10:37 Central Euro Time: 'Tis at present an all-red Session for the 8 BEGOS Markets, with only Oil and the Spoo not trading below their NZ; weakest are the PMs, both -0.8%; volatility is moderate, although the narrowest-traded to this point are the noted Oil and Spoo. The Bond is down a full point and has broken below prior broad-based support, thus yield ought further pop today. The Euro looks en route to test the bottom of its prior support structure (1.1625), price at present 1.1757; however by Market Values, the Euro (as it has been for most of this year) is some 2 points below its smooth valuation line. Mar's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
29 Mar '21, 09:37 Central Euro Time: Reported fund loss worries (despite the S&P finishing Fri at an all-time closing high) are giving jitters to the BEGOS Markets in starting the week: only the safe haven Bond is trading above its NZ, whilst below same are Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to price's recent narrowness as perhaps a consolidative phase, with 1800 then reasonably in the balance; recounted as well are the warning signs for an S&P crash borne of lousy earnings, rising debt yields, and tax increases. And on balance, the Econ Baro has been weakening month-to-date.
26 Mar '21, 09:29 Central Euro Time: No BEGOS Market is trading below its NZ, whilst above same are the Euro, Copper and Oil; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed notching above their -80% axis, suggestive of higher levels: at present 155^30, the Bond near-term may make a test of the 11 Mar high at 158^28; as noted yesterday, the Bond remains 5 points "low" vis-à-vis its its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro wraps up its week with metrics including Feb's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured gauge inflation gauge of Core PCE.
25 Mar '21, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' bias is to the downside with the Swiss Franc, Silver, Copper and Oil all trading below their NZ, and none of the balance above same; volatility is moving toward moderate. The best performer of the bunch from a full week ago is the Bond, +1.3%; still by Market Values, the Bond appears (in real-time) as some 5 points "low". Regardless, the Dollar continues getting the bid, its Index (92.670) up to its highest level since 23 Nov. The S&P's recent inability to keep going up day-after-day finds it a bit more in line with the charts on our Moneyflow page, albeit the "live" P/E (70.7x) is unsustainable especially as rates back up. The Econ Baro looks to the final Q4 read on GDP.
24 Mar '21, 08:31 Central Euro Time: Early on we've further weakness in the 2 EuroCurrencies, both trading below their NZ, whilst above same are Copper and Oil; volatility is light. Per Market Trends, save for the Spoo, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are now in linreg downtrends. Gold is struggling to stay firm, although price at present (1726) is near the center of its Market Profile, the most dominantly-traded price of the past 2 weeks being 1730; Silver however has slipped to the base of her profile at 25.10, a full point below her dominant price of 26.10. Feb's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Mar '21, 09:45 Central Euro Time: The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ; below same are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver and Oil; volatility is moving toward moderate. By Market Trends, only the Spoo and Oil (barely) are in linreg uptrends, the latter (as noted) likely to have rotated to negative within the next day or so. By both Market Values and Market Magnets we've no extreme deviations. But the S&P's "live" P/E is now an extraordinary 74.4x, even as the Index's yield at 1.443% is below that of the 10-yr. Note at 1.684%. The Econ Baro looks to Feb's New Home Sales and Q4's Current Account.
22 Mar '21, 09:41 Central Euro Time: The new week for the BEGOS Markets finds the Bond beginning above this session's NZ whilst the 2 PMs start below same; volatility is light-to-moderate with the exception of Silver which has already traced 102% of its EDTR. The Gold Update is nonetheless price bullish near-term with 1800 reasonably in play. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are sufficiently dropping such that the linreg trend may rotate to negative within the next few days. The Econ Baro opens its week with Feb's Existing Home Sales. 4 replacements in the S&P 500 bump up our "live" P/E from 71x to 73x, one of the noted departures being once-mighty Xerox.
19 Mar '21, 09:45 Central Euro Time: Whilst yesterday was an all red finish for the BEGOS Markets, at present none are trading below their NZ, and above same are the Bond and Oil, (the latter having been hammered -7.5% on Thu; the 59-57 area appears near-term structurally supportive). Volatility is moderate within the context that all EDTRs (save for those of the PMs) are higher than where they were a month ago. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time slipping below their 0% axis, meaning that the red metal's linreg trend has rotated from positive to negative. As well, Copper's volatility of late has pushed its EDTR to 0.1365 points, nearly double the year-over-year median of 0.0680 points.
18 Mar '21, 09:41 Central Euro Time: Save for Gold, Silver and the Spoo, the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets are trading below their NZ; the diving Bond has traded 126% of its EDTR and volatility otherwise is moderate. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" continue their ascent as more noticeably now do those too for Silver and the Swiss Franc. The S&P again is in EDTR distance of reaching 4000 today should stocks get the bid, (which by the Spoo at present they shan't); the "live" P/E of the S&P is 75.6x and its yield remains below that of the 10-year Note. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's Philly Fed Index and Feb's Leading Indicators.
17 Mar '21, 09:34 Central Euro Time: Save for the Swiss Franc (-0.3%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are trading within their NZ; volatility remains light given the context of wider recent EDTRs. Gold is remaining firm following its brush with the 1600s, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing to ascend; by Market Values, Gold still shows "low" (in real-time) by 73 points. Yesterday's incoming metrics saw the Econ Baro drop its most in more than 3 years (tying with 3 other drops of the same magnitude since Sep 2017). Today brings Feb's Housing Starts/Permits and the FOMC's policy statement.
16 Mar '21, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 is within its EDTR of reaching 4000. Presently, all of the BEGOS Markets (save for Copper -1.0%) are trading inside of their NZ and volatility is again light as EDTRs which had be increasing of late begin to be tempered. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are continuing their ascent as price -- which a week ago by Market Values was 171 points below is smooth valuation line -- further is firming. 'Tis a engaging day for the Econ Baro with 8 metrics due, including Mar's NAHB Housing Index, Feb's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Jan's Business Inventories.
15 Mar '21, 09:55 Central Euro Time: In starting the week we've Oil trading above its NZ and the Euro below same; otherwise the rest of the BEGOS Markets are thus far fairly muted; volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update suggests the 1673 low of a week ago may be as low as it goes: that has essentially tested the entirety of the 1789-1672 support zone; moreover by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have curled up back above their -80% axis by which we can anticipate higher prices, indeed a run back to 1800 (1759-1816 appears resistive). 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro, some 14 metrics due beginning today with the NY State Empire Index, plus an FOMC policy statement come Wed.
12 Mar '21, 09:03 Central Euro Time: Save for Oil and the Spoo both trading within their NZ, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are all trading below same; volatility is mostly moderate. Recent firmness in the 2 EuroCurrencies is fading, their linregs (see Market Trends) still decidedly down, although specific to the Euro by Market Values, price (1.19685) remains 0.02 points "low" via the smooth valuation line. As for the Spoo, it closed yesterday 90 points above its Market Magnet, an fairly extreme deviation. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's UofM Sentiment Survey and Feb's PPI.
11 Mar '21, 09:14 Central Euro Time: Trading above their NZ are both Gold and Copper; the other 6 BEGOS Markets are in neutral change territory and volatility is again light-to-moderate following a comparatively narrow range across all the components yesterday. Today may be similarly narrow as incoming EconData is limited whilst all await whatever the Godot catalyst is to either drive the S&P to 4000 or more common-sensibly commence the crash. 73.1x is our "live" P/E at the moment for the S&P. By Market Trends, save for Copper and Oil, the other components all are in negative linreg trends. And by Market Values we've still extreme deviations from their respective smooth valuation lines for the Bond, the Euro, Gold and Oil.
10 Mar '21, 09:15 Central Euro Time: The Bond and the 2 EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same and volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked a notch higher for the first time in some 2 weeks; those exhibiting ongoing falling are for the EuroCurrencies, Silver and Copper. The S&P's Moneyflow saw its strongest inflow since 07 Jan, however we continue to caution that the Index is obviously at dangerously high levels given the lack of earnings, plus now rising debt yields. Feb's CPI and Treasury Budget come due for the Econ Baro.
09 Mar '21, 09:57 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets (save for Copper -1.2%) are all to the upside, of which all (save for Oil +0.8%) are trading above their NZ; volatility is moderate. The "live" P/E of the S&P remains a treacherously high 67.0x and per the Moneyflow page such flow these days clearly is unsupportive of the S&P's level. Moreover, despite the Spoo's recent rebound attempts, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are working lower even into real-time this session. By Market Values, the Spoo shows as near its smooth valuation line, however the balance are very extreme with the Bond 11 points "low", the Euro 0.03 points "low", Gold 148 points "low", and Oil 9 points "high".
08 Mar '21, 12:18 Central Euro Time: Early on, the BEGOS Markets had mostly begun the week to the upside; however save for Silver (+0.3%), the balance of the bunch all are down, those trading below their NZ being the 2 EuroCurrencies, Copper and the Spoo; volatility is moderate, albeit Copper has traced 114% of its EDTR. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed falling below their +80% axis thus setting expectations for still lower levels ahead; in real-time, the "Baby Blues" are lower in this session for all 8 BEGOS components. The Gold Update cites price now truly brushing the 1600s as has been anticipated. The Econ Baro starts a not-too-cluttered week with Jan's Wholesale Inventories.
05 Mar '21, 11:57 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's 4.9% increase in Oil with another +1.6% in this session is enough to have whipsawed the fresh technical daily negatives back to positives (parabolic and MACD): however, price has reached the anticipated 65s (see 02 Feb comment), which with the 66 level are major price tops across the past 2 years; recovering today as well are the Bond and Copper, whilst the Euro further weakens sub-1.20; volatility is mostly moderate: again, mind the expanding EDTRs on the Market Ranges page. The Spoo's major daily technicals continue to weaken; recall our 01 Mar comment as to the S&P's Moneyflow being "extremely negative", the Spoo having subsequently fallen nearly 200 points. 'Tis Feb's Payrolls data due today for the Econ Baro, along with Jan's Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
04 Mar '21, 14:11 Central Euro Time: The Bond and Gold are trading above their NZ; below same are the 2 EuroCurrencies and Copper; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both the Swiss Franc and Copper having exceeded 100% EDTR tracings. Despite Oil being +0.7%, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed their drop sub-80% and in real-time are further falling as is the daily MACD continuing its negativity and the parabolic remaining Short. At Market Values, the Bond is an extreme 11 points "low", the Euro 0.02 points "low", Gold 150 points "low" and Oil nearly 6 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Factory Orders, plus Q4's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
03 Mar '21, 09:48 Central Euro Time: With session volatility comparably light, the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold are trading below their NZ; above same are Oil and the Spoo; but (in real-time) the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are tapping their 0% axis, essentially meaning the linreg trend has rotated from up to flat. As well, Oil's "Baby Blues" have provisionally slipped sub-80%, which with the daily parabolics having flipped to Short and the MACD having negatively crossed suggests a run into the 58s; and should 57 fail, we'd look for the 53s. Feb's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index come due for the Econ Baro.
02 Mar '21, 10:23 Central Euro Time: Just as yesterday we found "everything as up" today we find "everything as down". No one BEGOS Market is trading above its NZ, whilst below same are the Euro, Swiss Franc, Silver and the Spoo; volatility is light-to-moderate within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are expanding. Per Market Trends and as noted yesterday, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have lurched even lower in this session. Moreover (save for the Bond which has been consistently selling off of late), the "Baby Blues" are falling for every BEGOS component. Note therefore (typically) that the Dollar is gaining ground. Q4 Earnings Season is concluded: for those 455 S&P 500 constituents having reported, only 59% bettered their bottom line of Q4 from a year ago.
01 Mar '21, 10:21 Central Euro Time: Oil (+1.6%) and the Spoo (+1.2) bounce out of the box to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets; also above their NZ are all 3 metals; below same are the Bond and both EuroCurrencies; volatility is moderate. Despite its firm start, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are swiftly falling, and as cited in The Gold Update, the S&P's Moneyflow (as regressed into S&P points) is extremely negative; as well the weekly missive notes Gold last week coming within 15 points of a "brush the 1600s". Due for the Econ Baro are Feb's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jan's Construction Spending.
26 Feb '21, 10:06 Central Euro Time: The Bond and the Spoo are the 2 BEGOS Markets trading at present above their NZ; below same are the Euro, Silver, Copper and Oil; volatility is again moderate with just the Bond trading beyond its EDTR. In real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have lurched lower for the 1st time in some 3 weeks: this is in line with both the MACD and Parabolic daily studies having gone negative as noted at the start of this week. As well, Gold today has traded down to 1754 which is below last week's low: and as we know, Gold's weekly Parabolic trend had already flipped to Short, so the notion of a "brush with the 1600s" may play out in the near-term. Included in today's Econ Baro metrics are Feb's Chi PMI and Jan's Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE.
25 Feb '21, 10:08 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' 2 EuroCurrencies returned to positive correlation and both are trading above their NZ; below same are Gold and the Bond, the cac volume for the latter rolling from Mar into Jun, whist that from Silver rolls from Mar into May; save for the Bond having already traced 109% of its EDTR, volatility is moderate. As noted back on 02 Feb, Oil appears destined for 65; however its recent robust up-run finds price (in real-time at 63.66) nearly 10 full points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the 2nd peek at Q4 GDP.
24 Feb '21, 10:27 Central Euro Time: In odd juxtaposition we've the Euro trading above its NZ and the Swiss Franc below same, as is Copper, the cac volume for which is rolling from Mar into May. The balance of the bunch are within their NZ, and volatility is still moderate-to-robust. Following 5 consecutive down days, the S&P recovered (barely) yesterday; however the new negative stances on the daily studies of MACD and Parabolic are becoming more so. As well, the conventional Moneyflow study has slipped below the .50 midpoint level; our regressed Moneyflow measure for the past five sessions suggests the S&P ought be 101 points lower than the present 3881. Jan's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Feb '21, 11:38 Central Euro Time: Both the Spoo's daily MACD and daily Parabolic confirmed their negative crossings: at present, the Spoo, Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper are all trading below their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; and again we've volatility running from moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc, Copper and Spoo all exceeding 100% EDTR tracings. The Spoo by Market Values has returned to its smooth valuation line after having been recently better than 100 points above it. The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Consumer Confidence.
22 Feb '21, 15:00 Central Euro Time: The Spoo's daily MACD is provisionally crossing negative as is the daily Parabolic flipping to Short, price beginning the week now below it NZ; above same are the Euro, Gold, Copper and Oil; volatility is again moderate-to-robust with the Swiss Franc, Copper, Oil and the Spoo all exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Gold has briefly traded above 1800, however The Gold Update cautions of price potentially having a brush with the 1600s given the weekly Parabolic having flipped to Short and structural resistance running from 1789 down to 1672. Jan's Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
19 Feb '21, 10:31 Central Euro Time: Further Dollar weakness finds the BEGOS Markets' currencies trading above their NZ, as too is Copper; below same is Oil, (back sub-$60); volatility is moderate-to-robust with Silver, Copper and Oil all exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Copper has reached its highest level since Feb 2012, nearing the aforementioned re-test as well as the $4/lb. mark which last traded in Sep 2011 when Gold first pushed 1900. Within the context of the new weekly Parabolic Short trend, Gold's 1789-1672 structural area is in play. Jan's Existing Home Sales round out the Econ Baro's busy week.
18 Feb '21, 10:48 Central Euro Time: No BEGOS Market is trading below its NZ, whilst above it are the 2 EuroCurrencies, plus Gold and Copper; volatility is moderate, save for Copper which has traced 171% of its EDTR and looks to be targeting a re-test of the Feb 2012 high at 3.9895. At Market Trends, 4 of the components have positive linregs: Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo; the other 4 as negative: the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. And by Market Values, prices for the 5 primary components are well-away from their respective smooth valuation lines. 'Tis another busy day for the Econ Baro with Feb's Philly Fed Index, plus Jan's Housing Starts/Permits and Ex/Im Prices.
17 Feb '21, 14:22 Central Euro Time: Gold overnight flipped its weekly Parabolics from Long to Short: this could set up a down run to brush the upper 1600s, albeit our forecast high for this year remains at 2401. Joining Gold in trading below its NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies; only Oil is above same; volatility is mostly moderate, save for Oil which has traded 126% of its EDTR and for which cac volume is moving from Mar toward Apr. By Market Values, Oil (in real-time) at 60.85 is 8.66 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to 8 incoming metrics today including Feb's NAHB Housing Index, Jan's Retail Sales, PPI and IndProd/CapUtil, and Dec's Business Inventories.
16 Feb '21, 10:02 Central Euro Time: The 2-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets: still above their NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver and Oil, the Spoo having also moved above same; the Bond and Yen are below their NZ, whilst Gold is within its NZ; volatility is moderate, (the Yen not an official BEGOS component having traded 151% of its EDTR). By its Market Value (in real-time) the Spoo shows as 139 points "high"; by the same study, Oil shows as 8 points "high", the Bond as 6 points "low", the Euro as nearly 0.02 points "low"and Gold as 67 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's NY State Empire Index.
15 Feb '21, 10:32 Central Euro Time: Given StateSide physical bourses are closed for President's Day, the BEGOS Markets are into a 2-day session with the Bond trading below its NZ and having already traded 107% of 'tis EDTR; the other component below its NZ is Gold, The Gold Update entitled "Make Gold Your Stash Before the S&P Crash": nuff said. Above their NZ are the 2 EuroCurrencies, Silver and Oil, the latter having leapt above 60 toward our recent notion for a move to 65. A busy week awaits the Econ Baro with 16 metrics due.
12 Feb '21, 10:29 Central Euro Time: The Bond is the sole BEGOS Market component trading above its NZ; below same are the 2 EuroCurrencies, plus Gold, Copper and Oil; volatility is mostly moderate. The S&P 500 again settled at our textbook technical stance of "extremely overbought", the Index really struggling to push higher, its quick down streaks being met time and again with measured buying. Still, by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) shows as 97 points "high", and by Market Magnets as 77 points "high"; also 77 points "high" is the S&P vis-à-vis its Moneyflow across the past 5 trading days. Feb's UofM Sentiment comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Feb '21, 11:21 Central Euro Time: The Spoo continues its upward creep despite some nervous RTH selling yesterday; 'tis at present in the NZ as are all of the other BEGOS Markets; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P's Moneyflow has underperformed the change in the Index each day now for better than a week; a bevy of analytical colleagues are seeking an imminent multi-hundred point down move for the Index. At Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is running 117 points above its smooth valuation line. And by Market Profiles, the Spoo's nearby high-volume apices are: 3909, 3901, 3880 and 3830.
10 Feb '21, 10:08 Central Euro Time: Into "real-time hours" and still the Spoo is well under-trading the breadth of its EDTR as has been the case these recent days: at present, just 36% of today's 59-point expected range has been traced, however the price of the S&P remains textbook "extremely overbought". The other end of the spectrum finds Copper with a 115% EDTR tracing; the red metal along with the Bond, Swiss Franc and Gold are trading above their NZ and the balance of the BEGOS Markets within same; overall volatility is mostly moderate. For the Econ Baro we've Jan's CPI and Treasury Budget along with Dec's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Feb '21, 10:08 Central Euro Time: The S&P 500 per yesterday's settle (3915.59) reached our textbook technical reading of "extremely overbought": 'tis the 3rd such time this year for such event, yet the S&P refuses to come off by any measurable extent; the "live" P/E is 85.9x. Still, the Spoo at present is actually down a tad, (still within its NZ), whilst the balance of the BEGOS Markets are higher; volatility is pushing toward moderate. Per our Moneyflow page, 'tis not been supportive of the S&P's uptrend across the past 5 trading days. And thus far for Q4 Earnings Season, of the 275 S&P constituents having reported, only 60% (166) have bettered their bottom lines of a year ago.
08 Feb '21, 10:19 Central Euro Time: The week begins mostly negative for the BEGOS Markets with just Oil +0.9% the Spoo +0.2% not at present in the red; weakest is the Bond -0.4% and below its NZ, as are the 2 EuroCurrencies and Gold; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal being traded more as a commodity rather than as THE Currency; moreover, the weekly parabolic trend came near to flipping Short last week; price this week must stay above 1782.3 to avoid such flip. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are curling up (in real-time) from their 0% axis, a higher-high having now been made for the fifth consecutive session.
05 Feb '21, 12:03 Central Euro Time: The relentless, non-earnings-supportive S&P achieves another all-time high to be furthered 'twould appear at the RTH opening 'round the 3889 level given the current price of the Spoo (3882, +0.4%). With the exception of the Bond and Euro, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ; volatility is moderate. Still per yesterday, by Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are teasing their 0% axis. For the Econ Baro we've Jan's Payrolls report, along with Dec's Trade Deficit and Consumer Credit.
04 Feb '21, 09:27 Central Euro Time: Early-on we've none of the BEGOS Markets trading at present above their NZ; below it are the 2 EuroCurrencies and the 2 PMs; volatility is on a moderate pace. In real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have reached down to tease their 0% axis line: below that level, the linreg trend rotates to negative. The Euro appears poised to move down into the 1.9s, even as by Market Values price is better than 0.03 points below the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus Dec's Factory Orders.
03 Feb '21, 14:43 Central Euro Time: Silver indeed closed the "squeeze" gap and then some, albeit today 'tis at present +1.4% and firmest of the BEGOS Markets; also above its NZ is Oil; below same are the Bond and the Euro; volatility has backed off to being light-to-moderate. The "live" S&P 500 P/E = 86.3x whilst the forward reading is 25.0x, meaning that earnings must more than triple to get in line: thus far in Q4, the median earnings change is but +5%. Lack of earnings support plus "squeeze" speculations are the perfect recipe for the stock market to crash. Jan's ADP Jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index are due for the Econ Baro.
02 Feb '21, 11:19 Central Euro Time: Following Silver's "squeeze" by as much as +12% to 30.350 from Fri's settle of 27.060, price (not unexpectedly) is giving the bulk of it all back, at present 27.815. Also below its NZ are the two other metals, plus the Bond, whilst above same are Oil and the Spoo; volatility is again moderate-to-robust. Oil is breaking out to the upside following 3 weeks of range-bound trading: structurally 'twould appear price can run up to test the Jan 2020 high of 65.65. By Market Trends, only Oil and the "beyond belief" Spoo remain in linreg uptrends. And by Market Values, prices on balance still appear well away from their smooth valuation lines.
01 Feb '21, 14:12 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets kick off the week with Silver (+10.1%) as the big leader, speculation swirling about a "squeeze play" on the Silver field; as well, The Gold Update features Silver as its ratio with Gold comes into historical line (62.8x at this writing); too, per Friday's settle we've 3 qualifying Market Rhythm studies turning positive for Silver, all on the Daily time-frames for each of the MACD, Parabolics and Price Oscillator. In addition to Silver, above their NZ are Gold, Oil and the Spoo, whilst below same are the Bond and Eurocurrencies; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver's EDTR tracing being 201%. Jan's ISM(Mfg) Index and Dec's Construction Spending are due for the Econ Baro.
29 Jan '21, 10:40 Central Euro Time: Silver is the sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ; below same are the Bond, Swiss Franc, Yen and Spoo; volatility is moderate-to-robust. At Market Trends, Copper's linreg looks to rotate to negative within the next trading session or so, the "Baby Blues" moving sub-0%; those for the Spoo continue to fall, as do those of the other components, except for the Bond and Silver. The Gold/Silver ratio (without combing through the data) has moved down into the 60s for the first time in a very long time: the millennium's average has been mid-60s, the current read being 68.7x. 'Tis a very busy day for the Econ Baro, featuring Jan's Chi PMI, plus Dec's Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation and Q4's Employment Cost Index.
28 Jan '21, 09:45 Central Euro Time: Dollar gains continue to drive the bulk (save for the Bond) of the BEGOS Markets lower: at present, none are above their NZ, whilst below it are the Swiss Franc, Silver and Copper; already, volatility is up to a moderate pace, so we expect to see EDTR tracings again exceed 100% today. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have swiftly dropped below their +80% axis: structurally to the downside 'twould appear price is heading into the 3500 - 3200 range (currently 3720). Gold's cac vol is rolling from Feb into Apr. And the big number today for the Econ Baro is the first read on StateSide Q4 GDP, along with Dec's Leading Indicators and New Home Sales.
27 Jan '21, 10:37 Central Euro Time: The 2 EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets' weak links, both trading below their NZ; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" confirmed dropping below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels, albeit more broadly, reducing energy infrastructure StateSide bodes well for the price of Oil. At Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is still some 4 points above its smooth valuation line. Also above same is the Spoo by 80 points, whilst below same are the Bond by 5 points, the Euro by 0.0260 points, and Gold by 59 points. For the Econ Baro we've Dec's Durable Orders.
26 Jan '21, 11:15 Central Euro Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are within their NZ; both the Bond and Copper are below it; volatility again is moderate. Without the S&P closing at an all-time high yesterday, our "live" P/E nonetheless is now 83.9x (vs. 80.8x at the all-time high from last Thu) meaning that incoming Q4 earnings are weak. The intra-day selling yesterday in the Spoo/S&P was clearly nervous despite price then fully recovering. 'Tis said that being awash in liquidity is driving the S&P higher but obviously such extreme Index valuation is well beyond anything we've ever seen. Jan's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
25 Jan '21, 11:07 Central Euro Time: We've a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets with both Oil and the Spoo trading above their NZ and the two EuroCurrencies below same; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update girders the Gold-positive nature of the new StateSide power structure; Gold's Market Profile shows price as volume supportive down into the upper 1840s; (price at present is "unch" from Fri's settle); by Market Values, Gold (in real-time) is 45 points below its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to a busy week that also includes the year's first FOMC Policy Decision (Wed) and an increasing pace of incoming Q4 earnings.
22 Jan '21, 12:01 Central Euro Time: The Spoo finally is taking a breather, at present -0.6% and below its NZ, as are the BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate and Oil; only the Bond is trading above its NZ; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both Copper and Oil trading in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. Per yesterday's settle, the Spoo was 47 points above its Market Magnet, not an extreme deviation, yet not unusual per recent months of maximum levels above the Magnet. The "live" P/E of the S&P is 80.8x: as Q4 Earnings Season ramps up, with 43 S&P constituents having thus far reported, only 22 (51%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q4 a year ago. The Econ Baro finishes its week with Dec's Existing Home Sales.
21 Jan '21, 09:25 Central Euro Time: Stock market euphoria continues with zero fundamental rationale (beyond the stimulus excuse), the S&P looking to extend its record high with the Spoo trading above its NZ as too is the Euro; none of the BEGOS Markets components are trading below their NZ and volatility is light at this early juncture. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have kinked back up above their +80% axis, as have those for Oil, as their respective linreg uptrends remain consistently intact. Jan's Philly Fed Index plus Dec's Housing Starts/Permits come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Jan '21, 11:14 Central Euro Time: Again we highlight the BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate of which each component is trading above its NZ, as too is Oil; the other markets are trading within their NZ and volatility is at best light: only Gold has (barely) traced beyond 50% of its EDTR. The Bond at this instant (168^30) is the most heavily-traded price of the past 2 weeks by its Market Profile: as well, the yield on the Bond of 1.840% continues to compare favourably to that on the S&P of 1.473%. Due for the Econ Baro is Jan's NAHB Housing Market Index. The StateSide Presidency passes from Trump to Biden, (as wrong as we were via The Gold Update about a second term for the former).
19 Jan '21, 11:10 Central Euro Time: The 2-day session continues with the Spoo (+1.1%) now joining the BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate by tracing in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. At Market Values, Oil continues to trade some 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line as has been the case most of the time since late Nov. By the same measure, the Bond appears 7 points "low", the Euro 2.5 points "low" and Gold 50 points "low"; (the Spoo is only marginally "high" by said measure, but the S&P 500 by earnings is beyond rationality, the "live" P/E at 78.1x). 3795 has become the Spoo's most commonly traded price across the past 2 weeks, (see Market Profiles).
18 Jan '21, 10:38 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets' Metals Triumvirate represents robust volatility to start the week: all 3 metals components have already traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, despite Copper at present being the only market outside (above) its NZ; otherwise the balance of the bunch are exhibiting just light volatility. Silver has responded to the downside since the negative Market Rhythm crossovers herein noted on 12 and 11 Jan; The Gold Update points to price's negativity being solely technical rather than fundamental. 'Tis a light week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, however the increasing pace of Q4 Earnings Seasons notably shall feature financials. StateSide physical bourses are closed for MLK Day, the broad trading session thus spanning 2 days (Mon-Tue).
15 Jan '21, 11:40 Central Euro Time: Following a lackluster Thu for the BEGOS Markets, they appear more active today with Q4 financial earnings beginning to come in and and a busy day for incoming economic metrics. Both the Bond and Gold are trading above their NZ whilst below same are the Euro, Copper and Oil; volatility is moderate. The S&P may finally be starting to crack per yesterday's "extremely overbought" designation and a "live" P/E of 80.1x. Presently 3784, the Spoo's most commonly-traded handle of the past 2 weeks is 3795 and the Market Magnet is 3761. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's NY State Empire Index and UofM Sentiment, Dec's PPI, Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and Nov's Business Inventories.
14 Jan '21, 15:23 Central Euro Time: The two EuroCurrencies are the weak links of the BEGOS Markets, both below their NZ; the only component above its NZ is Copper; volatility is light-to-moderate. The linreg trends of both EuroCurrencies have rotated to negative (see Market Trends) and 6 of the 8 components find their "Baby Blues" continuing to descend, (save for Oil and the Spoo). By Market Values, the Euro shows as some 2 points "low" whilst Oil shows as 5 points "high". The Spoo by textbook technical studies is "extremely overbought". Dec's Ex/Im Pricing is due for the Econ Baro.
13 Jan '21, 12:53 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's BEGOS Markets breather seems to have run its course as none of the 8 components at present are above their NZ whilst 4 are below it, namely the 2 EuroCurrencies plus Silver and Copper; volatility is moderate. Market Ranges notably on the rise of late are those for the metals triumvirate and the Spoo, the EDTR for the latter now up to 54 points from 43 at year-end. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" appear (in real-time) to be running out of upside puff. 44 studies now qualify for the Market Rhythms page, 16 of which are for Silver. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's CPI and Treasury Budget.
12 Jan '21, 12:29 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are getting a breather following yesterday's rout of all 8 components finishing in the red. At present above their NZ are the metals triumvirate and Oil whilst the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility runs from light for both the Bond and Spoo to robust for Copper with has traced 108% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis suggestive of still lower levels despite a respite today; as well, again several of Silver's Market Rhythm studies are triggering negative crossings.
11 Jan '21, 13:17 Central Euro Time: The Gold Update is wary of a "massive crash" for the S&P 500; (as usual, 'tis merely about "the when"); the "live" P/E for the S&P is 84.3x (really). The Spoo is beginning the week below its NZ as are all of the BEGOS Markets expect for The Bond (above its NZ) and Gold (within its NZ); volatility is again moderate-to-robust. Our Market Rhythms page has resumed its daily update: of note per Friday's close we've a number of studies turning negative for Silver. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" are rising for the Spoo; otherwise, they're dropping for the 7 other components. 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro from Wed through Fri. Q4 Earnings Season commences.
08 Jan '21, 10:37 Central Euro Time: No BEGOS Market component at present is trading above its NZ; within it are the Bond, Copper, Oil and the Spoo, whilst below it are the EuroCurrencies and the PMs, the weakest of the entire bunch being Silver -2.8%. Volatility is already moderate-to-robust with the StateSide Dec Payrolls report in the balance for the Econ Baro as are Nov's reading for Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are beginning to drop in earnest for the EuroCurrencies. And at Market Values, the Bond's reading in real-time shows as more than 7 points "low", the yield continuing to push up toward the 2% level.
07 Jan '21, 10:20 Central Euro Time: The unrest in DC has not had any lasting effect on the BEGOS Markets: with the Dollar getting the bid, the Bond and both EuroCurrencies are trading below their NZ, whilst above it is Oil and the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is moderate. The "live" P/E of the S&P is beyond astonishing at 74.1x with Q4 Earnings Season commencing next week. The yield on the Bond has reached a 10-month high at 1.837%: comparably, the yield on the S&P 500 is 1.509%. Due for the Econ Baro are Dec's ISM(Svc) Index and Nov's Trade Deficit.
06 Jan '21, 09:00 Central Euro Time: With some 98% of the GA election results counted, both Dems have a razor thin lead; the BEGOS Markets are mostly within their NZ: the Bond is below same and the two EuroCurrencies above same. Volatility is moderate, the exception being the Bond having traced 192% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). By Market Trends, the real-time "Baby Blues" for the Bond have notably dropped, whilst those for the other 7 components are firming regardless of their respective levels. Dec's ADP Jobs data and Nov's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
05 Jan '21, 12:40 Central Euro Time: The Bond is trading below its NZ, whilst within same are Gold and the Spoo; above their NZ are the balance of the bunch, led by Oil +2.4%: volatility is moderate and ought turn more robust as the year's first trading week continues. Despite Oil's firm day, by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are working lower such that the uptrend may be running out of puff; those for Copper are weaker as well as they are for the Spoo. At Market Values, the Bond now shows as 4 points "low". The Econ Baro looks to Dec's ISM(Mfg) Index.
04 Jan '21, (in review) Central Euro Time: Beset with logicstical reponsibilities on the year's first trading day; clearly 'twas a robust start for the PMs, The Gold Update targeting a high of 2401 in 2021. Indeed, 2021's early hours began much as 2020 ended with money moving into every BEGOS Market, save for the Bond; however by session's end, the Bond goat a bit of a bid, and both Oil and notably the S&P sustained losses. "As goes Janaury..." The Econ Baro kicked off a relatively busy week with a slowing in Nov's Construction Spending.
31 Dec '20, 10:28 Central Euro Time: Money is draining from the BEGOS Markets in closing out the year, indeed the decade: No component is trading above its NZ, whilst below it are Silver and Copper both -0.8%, and the Euro (finally) -0.1%; volatility is mostly light. By Market Values, the Bond is some 4 points "low" and Oil some 3 points "high". At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have regained the +80% level, nixing the notion for imminently lower levels, though 'tis been one firm run for the currency. The "live" P/E of the S&P is 69.9x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 71.3x, The Econ Baro closes out 2020 with Initial Jobless Claims. Bonne Année à Tous!
30 Dec '20, 09:44 Central Euro Time: Both the Bond -0.2% and the Swiss Franc also -0.2% are trading below their NZ; above it is the Spoo +0.4%, and the balance of the bunch are within same; volatility again is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, it remains that only the Bond has a negative linreg; however for the other 7 which are positive, the "Baby Blues" for the Swiss Franc, Gold, Copper and even the Spoo either are dropping or lacking puff; those for the Euro are firming for the present, but remain below their +80% level. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Chi PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
29 Dec '20, 10:34 Central Euro Time: Again we've the Bond -0.3% as the sole BEGOS Market trading below its NZ; above same are Oil +0.9% along with the Spoo +0.4% and the EuroCurrencies both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed moving below their +80% axis, suggestive of this firm uptrend coming to an end. The Euro's 2 key Market Profile supporters are at 1.2220 and 2.2190. The Spoo is furthering its way into record high territory: the S&P 500's "live" P/E is an alarmingly high 68.2x whilst the yield is 1.490% vs. that on the Bond of 1.669%.
28 Dec '20, 11:00 Central Euro Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ; only Gold is within it and the Bond -0.4% is below it; firmest of the bunch is Silver + 2.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR. The Gold Update points to price nearing the 1912 level that would flip the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long: the high thus far this session is 1904. By Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components have rising linregs, with only the Bond's in decline; by Market Values, the Bond remains some 5 points "low".
24 Dec '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets components are trading within their NZ, the only exception being Oil -0.9%; volatility expectedly is light with just Oil tracing more than 50% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both the Spoo and Copper continue to work lower as now too are those for the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss Franc's (in realtime) having provisionally dropped below their +80% axis: thus some currencies pullback after quite the up run of these past months against the Dollar appears in order. The Econ Baro is complete for the week which closes out today with early market closures. Merry Christmas to Everyone Everywhere!
23 Dec '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Save for Copper which above its NZ has again traced in excess of 100% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets seemingly are settling in for Christmas; only the Euro also is above its NZ, with the balance of the bunch within same; volatility is moderate. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed closing below their +80% axis and are lower still in real-time, despite some price strength today. At Market Values, the Spoo has finally worked its way back to the smooth valuation line, although that for the Bond is 5 points "low". The Econ Baro awaits 7 incoming metrics on this, the last full day of trading, until next Mon.
22 Dec '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: The sole BEGOS Market trading above its NZ is the Spoo, +0.3; below same are Silver and Copper, both -1.5%, and Oil -1.0%; volatility has backed off from yesterday's extremes, but is moderate-to-robust with both Silver and Copper tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked down to their +80% level, a confirmation below which would suggest lower prices ahead, although at present 3.5240, there appears structural support from 3.5460 down to 3.4500. For the Econ Baro we've the final read on Q3's turnaround GDP, plus Dec's Consumer Confidence and Nov's Existing Home Sales.
21 Dec '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: The COVID surge in the UK finds it isolated from travel to a variety of other countries in Europe and beyond, such catalyst pressuring the economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets: below their NZ are Oil -3.3%, the Spoo -1.9% and Copper -1.8%; the EuroCurrencies also are trading below their NZ; the Bond and Silver are above same, whilst Gold is near "unch"; however, volatility is robust across the board with every component exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Gold Update sees the 1900s nearing as the weekly parabolic Short trend is within range of flipping to Long. And TSLA's joining the S&P 500 has (as expected) rocketed the Index's "live" P/E from 45x to 69x.
18 Dec '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: At present, all 8 BEGOS Markets are within their NZ and volatility is light-to-moderate as the final full trading week of 2020 draws to a close. The S&P is at a record high, and with TSLA joining the Index come Monday, the "live" P/E shall leap from an already torrid 46.2x to in excess of 60x, beyond any record we've ever witnessed. Doubtless a significant correction must be in the offing especially should the long end of the yield curve continue to inch up: the yield on the Bond is now 1.676% but is less so for the S&P at 1.532%. The Econ Baro wraps up its down week with Nov's Leading Indicators and Q3's Current Account Balance.
17 Dec '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The sense of a "whiff of inflation" along with the Dollar Index trading sub-90 for the first time since Apr 2018 finds yields creeping higher and none of the BEGOS Markets trading below their NZ; only the Bond, Swiss Franc and Oil are within their NZ, with Silver +1.6% the firmest of the bunch. The Bond by Market Trends is the sole component with a negative linreg; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" which are sub their +80% axis are nonetheless kinking higher for the 2nd straight session. Oil's cac volume is moving from Jan to Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Dec's Philly Fed Index and Nov's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Dec '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is below its NZ, whilst above it are the EuroCurrencies and Silver +2.7%, the white metal the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; volatility ranges from light for Oil with an EDTR tracing of 38% to robust for Silver's 118% tracing. By the Market Values page, Oil continues some 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line as has been the case since 24 Nov: at present 47.60, 'tis Oil's highest level since Mar when COVID first brought on severe economic fear. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's NAHB Housing Index, Nov's Retail Sales and Oct's Business Inventories. The FOMC issues it final Policy Statement for 2020.
15 Dec '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: None of the BEGOS Markets are below their NZ; above it are the PMs, Swiss Franc and the Spoo, the latter after having given up its intra-day gains yesterday again straining to work higher even as its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) work lower. The Spoo (at present 3368, +0.6%) shows Market Profile support at 3660, the most dominantly traded handle of the past 10 sessions, and below which such support falls away: structural support (which was briefly tested last Fri) ranges from 3627 down to 3534. For the Econ Baro we've Dec's NY State Empire Index plus Nov's Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil. The FOMC begins its final two-day meeting of the year.
14 Dec '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Silver and Copper are at present inside their NZ in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets; above their NZ are the EuroCurrencies, Oil and the Spoo, whilst below it is the Bond; volatility is moderate. Per Fri's close, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed kinking below their key +80% suggestive of lower levels ahead, albeit price at present is +0.8%; by Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) 81 points "high" and by the MoneyFlow's quarterly measure the S&P itself is 200 points "high"; the Index's "live P/E is 45.4x. The Econ Baro's busy week begins tomorrow.
11 Dec '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.2% is trading above its NZ; below same for the BEGOS Markets are Copper -0.5%, the Spoo -0.7%, the Swiss Franc -0.3% and the Euro -0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with Copper again exceeding a 100% EDTR tracing as is the Spoo. The latter per Market Trends has its "Baby Blues" (in real-time) kinking below their +80% axis, confirmation of which would suggest still lower prices in the offing. Cac volume for the Spoo and EuroCurrencies is moving from Dec into Mar. The Econ Baro wraps up its week with Dec's UofM Sentiment and Nov's PPI.
10 Dec '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: 3 of the BEGOS Markets are trading above their NZ: Oil +1.0%, Copper +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility ranges from light-to-moderate, save for Copper which has traced 114% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking lower, but not below the key +80% axis; again we're similarly watching same for the EuroCurrencies, Copper and Oil. Yesterday's Gold low (1828) tested the key oft-mention 1830 level, itself hoovered away in the recent run to as low as 1767 prior to price's month-to-date recovery. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's CPI and Treasury Budget.
09 Dec '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: 3 of the BEGOS Markets are trading below their NZ: Silver -1.6%, Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.3%; the balance of the bunch are within their NZ; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are above their +80% axes for the Euro, the Swiss Franc, Copper. Oil and the Spoo, which confirms the uptrend consistency of all 5 of those components, but at the same time puts them on day-to-day notice for running out of puff; again by Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear "high". Oct's Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
08 Dec '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only the Swiss Franc +0.2% is above its NZ; below it are Copper -1.0% and the Spoo -0.3%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within same; volatility is mostly light. At Market Values, Oil (as has been the case since 24 Nov) still shows as some 5 points "high"; the Bond shows as 5 points "low" and the Spoo as 121 points "high". The Moneyflow page for the S&P 500 continues to cite the Index as unsupported by the flow, be it by the weekly, monthly or quarterly measure; the "live" P/E is 45.3x. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 revision for Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
07 Dec '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4% trading above its NZ, 'tis a red start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, sub-their NZ at present being the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.7% the weakest component and Oil -0.8%; the EuroCurrencies have rebounded from being below their NZ earlier in the session. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" have yet to rollover below their +80% axes for Oil, nor as well for Copper or the Spoo, but they remain vulnerable to so do. The Gold Update points to price having directionally separated from its downward slid with Dollar, albeit the latter is higher today. Oct's Consumer Credit arrives late in the session for the Econ Baro.
04 Dec '20, 12:33 Pacific Time: Late in the session we've recovered from an intentional power outage across areas of northern San Diego County over concerns of high winds/electric lines potentially leading to wildfires. The BEGOS Markets with some 90 minutes to run find the economically driven components (Copper, Oil and the Spoo) all trading above their NZ with only the Bond below its NZ. The S&P 500 is at an all-time high. By Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear as "high". Heading toward the weekend the Econ Baro shall be updated as shall all the websites daily pages. And of course we look forward to penning the 577th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update. Thank you for your patience.
03 Dec '20, --:-- Pacific Time: (Power outage)
02 Dec '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit more settled thus far, volatility moderate at best. Gold +0.4% is above its NZ whilst Copper -1.0% and the Euro -0.2% are below same, the balance of the bunch within their NZ. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for Oil are rolling over but still above their +80% axis, upon penetration of which would suggest lower prices in the offing; this study is high as well for the Euro, Copper and the Spoo. Our "live" P/E of the S&P is 45.7x and its MoneyFlow suggests the Index ought be 559 points lower than 'tis. Nov's ADP jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Dec '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The PMs are finally firming, indeed the metals triumvirate all above their NZ, the most so being Silver +3.6%; both EuroCurrencies also are above their NZ as is the Spoo +0.8%; only the Bond -0.2% is below its NZ; volatility is again moderate-to-robust, today with both Silver and Gold exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Nonetheless in real-time, Gold by its Market Value is 127 points below its smooth valuation line, whereas Oil and the Spoo are respectively 6 and 175 points above same. Nov's Vehicle Sales begin to roll in for the Econ Baro along with the ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending.
30 Nov '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Silver -2.3%, Oil -1.2%,Gold -0.9%, the Spoo -0.4% and the Bond -0.2% all begin the week moving below their NZ; above it are Copper +1.7%, the Euro +0.3% and the Swiss Franc +0.2%, (thus leaving no BEGOS Market at present in the NZ); volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and Silver exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Gold Update cites Gold's now bona fide correction as fundamentally "convoluted" and notably so vis-à-vis the other primary BEGOS Markets (see Gold's Market Value chart). The Econ Baro's busy week begins with Nov's Chi PMI and Oct's Pending Home Sales.
27 Nov '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' 2-day stint continues, constituents closing early at either 10:15 PT or 10:45 PT. Above their NZ at present are Copper +1.8% and the Bond +0.3%; below same are Silver -1.0% and Oil -0.8%; volume has expectedly up-shifted to moderate, the one outlier being Copper with an EDTR tracing of 142%. Gold's session remains fairly narrow with a just a combined 53% EDTR tracing across the 2 days, but with price avoiding having gone sub-1790, (currently 1810). Moreover by Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 122 points below its smooth valuation line, as well as some 42 points below its Market Magnet.
26 Nov '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis Thanksgiving: thus the BEGOS Markets are in a 2-day session, which at present finds Copper +0.5%, Gold +0.4% and the Bond +0.3% all above their NZ with only Oil -0.4% below same; volatility is mostly light, save for Oil which has traced 84% of its EDTR. At Market Trends we're minding the Euro, Copper, Oil and the Spoo, the "Baby Blues" for all of those components subject to being over-extended to the upside. Gold is attempting to stabilize below the key 1830 structural support level, the 1790 "line in the sand" not tested to this point. Note the dip in the Econ Baro following yesterday's input of 9 metrics.
25 Nov '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis the final full trading day for this week and the BEGOS Markets are fairly muted: above its NZ is Oil +0.9%; below its NZ is Copper -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Values some extended levels are showing, (real-time readings): Gold is 110 points "low", Oil is 7.5 points "high" and the Spoo is 189 points "high", all vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines. Cac Volume is moving for Copper from Dec into Mar, as through the balance of the week shall be the case too for Silver, Gold and the Bond. Typical of the day before Thanksgiving, the Econ Baro takes a lot of input, this year no exception with 9 metrics due, including data on Oct's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Inflation, New Home Sales, Durable Orders, plus the first revision to Q3 GDP. As well we've the FOMC's 04/05 Nov Meeting Minutes.
24 Nov '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The PMs are the notable BEGOS Markets in the loss column, both Silver -0.6% and Gold -1.4% below their NZ; Gold's low thus far is 1804, well under the 1830 structural support level; below 1790 we'd deem as problematic, although broadly the bullish case is firmly in force. Above their NZ are Copper +1.5%, Oil +1.4%, the Spoo +0.7% and the Euro +0.3%; volatility ranges from light for the Bond with an EDTR tracing of just 34% to robust for Gold with a 102% EDTR tracing. The Spoo is still very high (+166 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro looks to Nov's Consumer Confidence.
23 Nov '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: StateSide 'tis an abbreviated trading week, starting with only the 2 PMs inside their NZ; for the balance of the BEGOS Markets, Oil +0.9%, the Spoo +0.5%, and the Eurocurrencies are all above their NZ, whilst Copper -0.7% and the Bond -0.3% are below same; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes the present "correction" as more of a "consolidation", prior ones as therein graphed across the past two having resulted in surges to higher prices. Q3 Earnings Season has been finalized: for the S&P 500, 447 constituents reported of which just 51% improved their bottom lines over Q3 of a year ago, and yet the S&P is +14% higher since then, the "live" P/E 43.4x.
20 Nov '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: 2 BEGOS Markets are above their NZ, Copper +1.5% and the Spoo +0.5%; the other 6 components are within their NZ and volatility is mostly light, the only exception being Copper having traced 106% of its EDTR. The Spoo continues its "high" stance vis-à-vis its Market Values smooth valuation line, above which price is (in real-time) +157 points; but by Market Magnets, price has returned to that measure; the Spoo's Market Profile shows 3 dominant apices: 3608, 3557 and 3500. This is the final day of Q3 Earnings Season, which given COVID has been severely worse than 2019's Q3.
19 Nov '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond is the only BEGOS Market in the black but is inside of its NZ at that; the PMs are below same with Silver -1.4% and Gold -0.4%; volatility is still comparatively light-to-moderate relative to the recent rises in EDTRs (see Market Ranges). With Gold having (by Market Trends) resumed its negative linreg track, we remain mindful of 1830 as a key structural support price, (this session's low so far is 1853). Despite the S&P's -1.2% drop yesterday, the Spoo (in real-time) is above 144 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). The Econ Baro closes out its week today, incoming metrics including Nov's Philly Fed Index, plus Oct's Existing Homes Dales and Leading Indicators.
18 Nov '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The PMs are the 2 BEGOS Markets trading below their NZ, Silver -1.1% and Gold -0.8%; for the latter, this session's low to this point is 1860: the 09 Nov low was 1848 and as noted in various Gold Updates a key level to hold is 1830. Above their NZ are Oil +1.9% and the Spoo +0.4% and volatility is again light-to-moderate. The Spoo continues to dwell at lofty levels by Market Values, +207 points "high" (in real-time). The S&P's Moneyflow is underperforming the Index itself by the weekly, monthly and quarterly measures. Oil's cac volume has moved from Dec into Jan. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's Housing Starts/Permits.
17 Nov '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies both +0.2% are above their NZ with the Spoo -0.6% below same; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are at present within their NZ and volatility after having picked up yesterday is now just light-to-moderate. Even as 'tis lower, the Spoo (in real-time) is 198 points above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values) and finished yesterday's session 114 points above its Market Magnet. Into this final week of Q3 Earnings Season, our "live" P/E of the S&P is 45.0x. The Econ Baro looks to 8 incoming metrics today including Nov's NAHB Housing Index, Oct's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Sep's Business Inventories.
16 Nov '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Following BEGOS Markets' volatility having cooled a bit last week, 'tis ramping up again with both Copper +1.9% (above its NZ) and Gold -1.1% (below its NZ) trading in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. Also above their NZ are Oil +3.7% and the Spoo +1.2%, whilst below too are Silver -1.5%, and the Bond -0.4%. The Gold Update points to BEGOS component prices nearly being where they were weeks prior to the StateSide election. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with Nov's NY State Empire Index.
13 Nov '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: Oil -1.1% is below its NZ whilst Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.5% are above their NZ; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are inside of their NZ and volatility is mostly light across the board: indeed the only EDTR tracing exceeding 50% is that by Copper at just 68%. At Market Trends the linregs remain mixed, whilst readings for the Spoo are still "high" by Market Values but a bit less so by Market Magnets as price has become more consolidative following Mon's rocket shot-'n-plop. The Econ Baro completes its light week with Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey and Oct's PPI.
12 Nov '20, 04:45 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo -0.5% is below its NZ; above it are the Bond +0.3% and the EuroCurrencies, both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate as the BEGOS Markets continue to quiet a bit from their post-StateSide election ranginess. Specific to the Spoo, its Market Value measure remains "high" above the smooth valuation line by (in real-time) 160 points, whilst price also is still "high" by its 144-points distance above the Market Magnet; too by historical standards, the "live" P/E of the S&P continues as very extreme at 44.1x. The Econ Baro in a comparatively limited week of data looks to Oct's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 Nov '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil +1.5% and the Spoo +0.6% are above their NZ whilst the EuroCurrencies are below same; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their NZ and volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Values, the Euro is right on its valuation line (no extreme), where as most extreme of the 5 primary markets is the Spoo, 177 points (in real-time) "high". After all the recent volatility, by Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components are nonetheless sporting nearly flat 21-day linregs (save for the Bond's downtrend) meaning prices are not too far from where they stood one month ago.
10 Nov '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's very volatile session, the BEGOS Markets are far more settled at present: Oil +2.2% and Gold +0.8% are above their NZ, whilst the Bond -0.3% and the Swiss Franc -0.2% are below their NZ; volatility is moderate across the board within the context that by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs have increased of late. Yesterday, Gold high-to-low engulfed the entire prior 7 weeks weeks of trading range. The Gold Update points to price as appearing "safe" in the 1900s, such notion being hoovered yesterday: Gold's most dominant Market Profile apices are now 1879, 1908 and 1949. For the Spoo, the nearest dominant Market Profile apex is 3505.
09 Nov '20, 04:29 Pacific Time: We've record highs for the Spoo +3.1% as the BEGOS Markets make a raucous start to the week. Also well above their NZ are Oil +8.3% (and back atop 40) and Copper +1.6%. Below their NZ are Silver -3.5%, Gold -2.4%, the Bond -1.5% and the Swiss Franc -0.2%; (only the Euro is within its NZ). Volatility is mostly robust. Entering the session the Spoo was already well above its Market Magnet by 146 points, an extreme (should today's move be maintained) becoming even more so. With 2 weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, the 421 S&P 500 reported entities find 84% having beaten estimates, but just 50% having improved their bottom lines from a year ago.
06 Nov '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: Silver and Copper, both +1.5%, along with the EuroCurrencies are trading above their NZ; weakest below it is Oil -2.5% and the Spoo -0.9%; volatility remains moderate-to-robust. With the Dollar's somewhat sharp selloff, the EuroCurrencies and PMs appear at a high extreme by their Market Magnets. And by Market Trends, that for Gold (in real-time) has rotated to positive, albeit in this session price has pretty much been confined within its NZ. A bevy of data concludes the week for the Econ Baro, featuring Oct's Payrolls data, plus Sep's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
05 Nov '20, 04:38 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility remains expectedly moderate-to-robust with 4 of the 8 components tracing beyond 100% of their EDTRs; Silver +3.1% leads 6 of the bunch above their NZ, followed by the Spoo +1.6%; both Oil and Copper are inside of their NZ, and none are below it. The Dollar Index (not a BEGOS component) is noticeably -0.7%, a fairly sizable intra-day move for the Buck, the PMs and EuroCurrencies clearly benefitting. The Econ Baro gets its first look at Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs; the FOMC issues its penultimate policy statement for the year; and the Presidential election result has yet to be determined.
04 Nov '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Similar to Election Day in 2016, the BEGOS Markets garnered extreme volatility overnight: Oil +1.1% and above its NZ is the only component not tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR; the Bond +1.4% and also aboves its NZ has the vastest EDTR tracing at 376%, indeed engulfing its entire trading range of the past 4 sessions; the Spoo +0.5% is also above its NZ; below same are the metals triumvirate, Silver and Copper both -1.2%, and the Euro -0.2%; thus only the Swiss Franc is at present inside its NZ. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus Sep's Trade Deficit. Reps shall still have the Senate; Dems shall still have the house; and the Presidency remains in the balance.
03 Nov '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.3% is trading beneath its NZ; above it are Oil +2.9%, the Spoo +1.1%, Silver +0.8% and the 2 Eurocurrencies both +0.5%; not surprisingly given 'tis StateSide Election Day, volatility is moderate-to-robust, EDTR tracings exceeding 100% so far for both the Euro and Oil, ("volatility" obviously being the BEGOS Markets' watchword through here). Despite the session's mostly bullish stance, by Market Trends, only the Swiss Franc and Copper have positive 21-day linregs, the "Baby Blues" for those 2 nonetheless in decline. Sep's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
02 Nov '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.0% is trading above its NZ, but has been below it as well, the BEGOS Market component leading the EDTR tracings at 125%; Oil -2.6 is below its NZ with an 105% EDTR tracing; both PMs are above the NZ, Gold +0.8% and Silver the overall leader of the bunch +1.8%. By Market Values, Oil is nearly 5 full points below its smooth valuation line and better than 3 full points below its Market Magnet. The Gold Update punctuates its recent theme that the StateSide presidential incumbent shall be re-elected, else Gold would be far higher and the S&P far lower. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, plus Sep's Construction Spending.
30 Oct '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have steadied themselves towards closing out a comparatively volatile week. Silver +1.0% and Gold +0.4% are the components above their neutral zone, the balance of the bunch within same. The week's selloff in the S&P 500 has brought the "live" P/E down from the 50s to 47.3x, obviously still extremely high by historical measures. 'Tis a busy culmination of the week for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including Oct's Chi PMI, Sep's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's-favoured Core PCE, plus Q3's Employment Cost Index.
29 Oct '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Since noting on 22 Oct the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (by Market Trends) having fallen below their +80% level, per 21 Oct's settle price has dropped a net -4.6%; as of yesterday's close, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues"confirmed falling below their +80% level. No BEGOS Market at present is above today's NZ; most below it is Oil -3.5%, followed by Silver -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Oil having traced 137% of its EDTR. The highly-anticipated first peek at Q3 GDP arrives for the Econ Baro, along with Sep's Pending Home Sales.
28 Oct '20, 04:10 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.2% is trading above its NZ; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are trading below their NZ, led by Oil -2.8%, plus Silver and the Spoo both -1.0%; volatility is moderate. By Market Values, no one primary component is overly distant from its smooth valuation line, however by Market Trends, those with positive linregs are seeing them rotating toward negative, (the Bond still being the only one of the bunch actually in a downtrend, but with its "Baby Blues" on the rise). About 1/3 of the S&P 500 companies have reported their Q3 earnings: 81% have exceeded estimates, whereas just 48% have bettered their bottom lines over Q3 of a year ago.
27 Oct '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil +0.8%, plus Copper and the Spoo both +0.4%, are above their NZ; only the Swiss Franc -0.2% is below its NZ, the balance of the bunch being therein; volatility is light-to-moderate. By the Market Ranges page, EDTRs have been on the decline across all the BEGOS Markets in recent weeks. By Market Trends, the Bond is the only component with a negative linreg trend, but 'tis also the only market whose "Baby Blues" have started to curl up; the others all in descent. Oct's Consumer Confidence and Sep's Durable Orders come into the Econ Baro.
26 Oct '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: To begin the BEGOS Markets' week, just the Bond +0.4% is above its NZ and only Gold is within same; the balance of the bunch all below their NZ are lead by Oil -1.7%, Silver -1.2%, and the Spoo -0.8%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites re-election as being priced into both Gold and the S&P, the former by now not having risen, but the latter subject to selling regardless of election outcomes. As well by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are in decline for both the PMs and the Spoo as the linreg uptrends lose consistency. Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's New Home Sales.
23 Oct '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.5% is trading below its neutral zone ("NZ") whilst above them are Gold +0.4% and the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc +0.3% and the Euro +0.2%; the other BEGOS Markets are at present inside of their respective NZs; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the 2 Eurocurrencies both exceeding 100% tracings of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are (in real-time) kinking over to the downside without having reached their +80% levels: however, these may be mere bumps in the road as the uptrends themselves still appear fairly consistent.
22 Oct '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: 5 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are trading below their neutral zones, the weakest being Copper -1.0%; above such zones are Oil +0.9% followed by the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) yesterday confirmed falling below their key +80% axis: typically this bodes for lower levels ahead: this session's low thus far of 3403 has already tested structural support at 3421 (price at present 3426), the next supporter in line being 3388. The Econ Baro wraps up a thin week of reports to include Sep's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales.
21 Oct '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets on balance are higher, with the Euro Currencies, led by the Swiss Franc +0.4%, and the metals triumvirate, led by Silver +1.6%, having all their components above their respective neutral zones. Oil -0.6% and the Bond -0.2% are below their neutral zones; volatility is moderate-to-robust. By our Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" are accelerating higher notably for the currencies and the metals; as well, the currencies are at 10-day highs as is Copper. Late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome of regional economic activity across the U.S.
20 Oct '20, 04:38 Pacific Time: As well with respect to the "neutral zone", it helps to differentiate as to a BEGOS Market's percentage change being material or not: i.e. at present, Oil is +0.5%, but that is not enough to get it above it's neutral zone, whereas the Bond is -0.2%, enough to put it below its neutral zone. Along with Oil, only Gold is also within said zone, the balance of the bunch above it respectively, led by Copper +1.3% and Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, save for the Bond, the 7 other components' 21-day linreg trends are now positive, (as has been that for the Spoo for some 3 weeks). Sep's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
19 Oct '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: With respect to the "neutral zone" of which we've been lately mentioning for each of the BEGOS Markets is now defined on their respective pages; 'tis essentially that daily defined area within which price appears directionally undecided. At present, only Oil lies therein, the Bond -0.4% is below its neutral zone, and above it are the balance of the bunch, led by Silver +2.6%, Copper +0.8%, and the Gold and the Spoo both +0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the EuroCurrencies tracing beyond 100% of the EDTRs. The Gold Update looks to as yet a lack of any real positioning nor fear ahead of the StateSide elections (03 Nov). The Econ Baro begins a light flow of incoming data for the week with Oct's NAHB Housing Index.
16 Oct '20, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Euro +0.2% is trading above its neutral zone; below it are Oil -0.8% and Copper -0.5%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are within their neutral zones; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Spoo still is "high" by Market Values, some 128 points in real-time, and of course, the S&P 500 remains really high given its "live" P/E of 57.8x. The trend thus far in the young Q3 Earnings Season is for better than 80% of companies "beating estimates", but for less than 40% bettering Q3 of a year ago. The Econ Baro finishes its busy week with Oct's UofM Sentiment, Sep's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Aug's Business Inventories.
15 Oct '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.4% is above its neutral zone; those BEGOS Markets below same are Oil -2.6%, Silver -1.6%, the Spoo -1.0%, Gold -0.4% and the Euro -0.3%; volatility is moderate. By Market Magnets there are no overt price extremes; by Market Values, the Spoo is working off its excess, the real-tine reading now +95 points "high" ('twas +148 yesterday and +175 on Tue); the Spoo's low trade this session is 3434: 3428 is Market Profile support, with 3395 as the most dominant underlying level. Oil's cac volume is moving from Nov into Dec. Oct's NY State Empire Index and Philly Fed Index come into the Econ Baro, along with Sep's Ex/Im Pricing (and the still elusive Treasury Budget).
14 Oct '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: No BEGOS Market at present is trading below its neutral zone; above them are Copper +0.6%, Gold +0.5%, and the Bond +0.2%; volatility remains moderate. Despite yesterday's move lower, the Spoo by Market Values is still "high" (148 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line; the other four primary components (Bond, Euro, Gold, Oil) are quite near to their respective smooth lines. At Market Profiles, save for the 2 PMs, the other 6 components are positioned above the center of their price-by-volume bars. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's PPI (and again for the Treasury Budget as was listed for yesterday).
13 Oct '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Mild Dollar-strength is enough to push the EuroCurrencies below their neutral zone, the Euro and Swiss Franc both -0.2%; the only BEGOS Market component above its neutral zone is Oil +1.7%; volatility is again moderate. The 21-day linreg trends (at Market Trends) for the PMs remain negative, however less so as their "Baby Blues" are climbing; the only two components with such trends as positive are Oil and the Spoo. The latter's rise in recent days finds price by Market Values some 175 points (in real-time) above the smooth valuation line, the dizzyingly-high "live" P/E itself at 59.8x. Sep's CPI and Treasury Budget come into the Econ Baro.
12 Oct '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin their week with Oil -1.1%, Gold -0.5% and the EuroCurrencies, all below their neutral zone, in which are the balance of bunch (with only the Yen [not an official BEGOS component] above its neutral zone). Session volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the PMs' resilience of the past two weeks, within the context of their near- and medium-term trends still being down. The Spoo (+12 points at 3489) could pull the S&P 500 over the 3500 level 'round today's open; the S&P's all-time high is 3588 (02 Sep). 17 metrics are due for the Econ Baro this week.
09 Oct '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Only Oil -1.0% is trading below its neutral zone; the balance of the BEGOS Markets (save for the minimally-up Spoo) are above their respective neutral zones, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +2.2%, Gold +1.2% and Copper +1.0%; volatility runs from light for the Spoo with just a 21% EDTR tracing to robust for the Swiss Franc with a 102% EDTR tracing; a glance at the Market Ranges page shows that, with the exception of Copper and Oil, EDTRs have been narrowing of late in what is normally expected as a more rangy time of the trading year. The Econ Baro completes its quiet week with Aug's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Oct '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Both Oil +1.4% and the Bond +0.3% are trading above their session's respective neutral zones whilst Copper -0.5% and the Swiss Franc -0.1% are below their own neutral zones. Volatility remains light relative vis-à-vis the EDTRs at Market Ranges. The Spoo's 21-day linreg trend has rotated to positive: moreover, the Spoo's daily Price Oscillator has turned positive after having been negative since 15 Sep. Nearest Market Profile support for the Spoo (presently 3422) shows at 3396, 3384, and 3371. However, the S&P 500's "live" P/E at 58.0x remains extreme by any rational measure as Q3 earnings unfold: mind as denoted on our Earnings Season page comparisons to Q3 of a year ago rather than "estimates beaten".
07 Oct '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate and the Spoo +1.0% are trading above their respective neutral zones (see yesterday's comment), the firmest being Silver +2.3% and Copper +1.2%; below its neutral zone is the Bond -0.2%; however, volatility again is light. By Market Trends, all components but Oil are in 21-day linreg downtrends. At Market Rhythms, 57 combinations of market studies at present qualify for the list. And by both Market Values and Market Magnets, neither show any component in near-term extremes at present. Late in the session for the Econ Baro we've Aug's Consumer Credit. The Fed's 15/16 Sep Meeting Minutes also come due.
06 Oct '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% and the Bond +0.2% are the only two BEGOS Markets at present outside of what we may refer to as their "neutral zone" specific to the current session; the "neutral zone" is that area cited on each market's page between the "guesstimated low if an up day" and "guesstimated high if a down day"; this gives us a better idea at these writings in pointing to what markets have some material, directional bias vs. just their % change alone. Accordingly, volatility to this point today is light. Due for the Econ Baro is Aug's Trade Deficit. Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.
05 Oct '20, 04:10 Pacific Time: Mixed remains the motif of the BEGOS Markets, the new week beginning with Oil +4.4%, Silver +0.9% and both the Swiss Franc and Spoo +0.5%; on the downside we've Copper -0.4%, the Bond -0.3%, and Gold marginally lower; volatility is mostly moderate; (Oil has traced 100% of its EDTR). The Gold Update reminds us whilst Gold's broad-term is well up, that both the medium-term and near-term trends remain down; again Gold's seasonal Sep-Nov stint throughout this decade has basically been negative. The Econ Baro, after a week of 20 incoming metrics, has just 5 for this week, starting today with Sep's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 Oct '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Again we've the BEGOS Markets in a mixed state: to the upside, both Copper and Silver are +0.5% followed by the Bond +0.2%; weakest is Oil -3.8% followed by the Spoo -1.4% and then the Euro -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both Oil and the Spoo tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), 'tis said over POTUS contracting COVID, (albeit Gold is just +0.1%). Save for Oil which has been selling off through this week, the 7 other BEGOS components all are trading near the center of their respective 10-day Market Profiles. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's Job's Data and Vehicle Sales, plus Aug's Factory Orders.
01 Oct '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin Q4 on a mixed basis: to the upside we've Silver +1.6%, the Spoo +1.3%, and Gold +0.5%; the EuroCurrencies, too, are marginally higher; to the downside we've Oil -0.5%, Copper -0.3% and the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate. By Market Values we've no extreme readings; however by earnings, the "live" P/E of the S&P 500 remains dramatically high at 57.1x (yield 1.705%) in this still essentially zero-interest rate environment. Data coming into the Econ Baro includes Sep's ISM(Mfg) Index, plus Aug's Construction Spending, Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Index.
30 Sep '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Copper is "unch" and the balance of the BEGOS bunch are in the red, weakest being Silver -2.0%, followed by Gold -0.6% and then Oil and the Spoo both -0.4%; volatility is moderate. Still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) did confirm moving above their -80% axis: again however, price (3317) is within the noted 3296-3420 zone of structural resistance. As well by Market Trends, now 'tis only the Bond in a 21-day linreg uptrend. The Econ Baro picks up its busy week pace with Sep's ADP Employment data and Chi PMI, Aug's Pending Home Sales, and the final revision to Q2 GDP.
29 Sep '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower with Copper -1.0%, Oil -0.6% and the Spoo just into the red. Firmest is Silver +1.0%, followed by Gold and the Euro both +0.4% and then the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate as the Econ Baro kicks off its own busy week of 20 scheduled incoming metrics starting with Sep's Consumer Confidence. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are in real-time moving above their -80% axis, which if confirmed at the close suggests still higher levels ahead, albeit into the 3293-3420 resistance zone; as well by Market Profiles the Spoo's largest overhead resistor is 3404, (price at present 3349).
28 Sep '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.3% (+44 points) is flying high, leading the BEGOS Markets into the new week, followed by Oil +0.8% and then Silver + 0.5%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the firm selling of late in the PMs, again pointing to 1830 as a key foothold for Gold to hold, (session's low 1851 matches that of last Thu). At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking up, their nonetheless being below the -80% axis: presently 3329, there is structural resistance from 3296-3420. By Market Values, the Spoo is only just nearing its smooth valuation line after having been 119 points below it last Thu.
25 Sep '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: For the week's finale we've at present only the Bond +0.2% in the black, the red side side leader again being Silver -2.1%, followed by Oil -0.9%, the Spoo -0.8%, Gold -0.7%, and then Copper -0.6%; volatility is moderate. At Market Ranges, now only Copper sports a 21-day linreg uptrend, itself at best feeble. The Dollar Index has reached a 9-week high. At Market Values, real-time readings find both Gold 74 points and the Spoo 144 points below their respective smooth valuation lines, notwithstanding for the latter the S&P 500's "live" P/E/ being 55.1x. The Econ Baro ends its week with Aug's Durable Orders.
24 Sep '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Just Oil +0.9% and the Bond +0.1% are on the black side of the BEGOS Markets' ledger; leading on the red side is Silver -2.5% -- the Gold/Silver ratio shooting higher to 83.3x -- followed by light losses amongst the balance of the bunch; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo, again with an EDTR tracing to this point of the session of 37%, to robust for Gold as it traces 103% of its EDTR. Silver's selloff finds it better than 3 whole points below its Market Magnet, an extremely low reading, essentially exceeded only during the white metal's plunge in 2011 following price's all-time high of 49.82. Aug's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Sep '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Both Oil and the Spoo are +0.4%; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver -3.2% -- the Gold/Silver ratio having topped 80x this session -- plus Copper -1.0% and Gold -0.4%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with an EDTR tracing of 37% to robust for the PMs, Gold tracing 100% of its EDTR and Silver 122% of same. The last 2 sessions have seen the Dollar Index up into the 94s for the first time since 27 July; the Euro has dipped its toe sub-1.17 this session. By Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are accelerating lower (in real-time) for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver, Copper and the Spoo.
22 Sep '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets vis-à-vis yesterday have morphed into a more reserved, mixed mode. Firmest is Oil +0.7%, followed by Copper +0.6% and then the Spoo +0.2%; weakest is Silver -1.7%, followed Gold -0.4% and then the Euro -0.3%; volatility is moderate, save for only Silver having traced excess of 100% of its EDTR. The Gold/Silver ratio, which finished at 72.6x on Fri, has ballooned to 78.3x on the white metal's -8.0% net change yesterday. In contrast to last Fri's comment, at Market Trends we've now only Copper in a 21-day linreg uptrend, the balance of the bunch trending down. The Econ Baro begins a very light week with Aug's Existing Home Sales.
21 Sep '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: 'Tis a tough start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower expect for the Bond +0.6%; the bearish bent in The Gold Update for both the yellow metal and the stock market is bearing out with Gold -1.0% and the Spoo -1.6%; weakest is Silver -1.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, 4 of the 8 components tracing better than 100% of their EDTRs. As noted numerous times via recent Gold Updates, should the 1920s area fall away, we see no sound structural support until 1830. Whilst 'tis a quiet week for the Econ Baro, we don't expect same for the markets; (and after all, 'tis September).
18 Sep '20, 04:37 Pacific Time: After recent days' runs of being mostly one-sided either way, the BEGOS Markets are at present mixed and lightly net changed: Gold is firmest +0.4% and Oil is weakest -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the 21-day linregs for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver and Copper are now positive, whilst those for the Bond, Oil and the Spoo are negative. By Market Values, no one component is excessively away from its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro concludes its busy week with Sep's UofM Sentiment Survey, Aug's Leading Indicators, and Q2's Current Account.
17 Sep '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: 'Tis quite red for the BEGOS Markets this session with just the Bond +0.4% in the black. Weakest is Silver -1.5%, followed by the Spoo -1.3% and then Copper -1.0%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with the Fed out of the way and Sep more than well under way. The Spoo (at present 3338) in this session has been as low as 3310, its lowest level being 3296 since its all-time high 3587 on 02 Sep. By Market Values, the Spoo is right on its smooth valuation line, but the SPX monetary outflow continues to be worse than the recent weakness in the Index; (and then there's the "live" P/E of 57.8x). Oil's cac volume is moving from Oct into Nov. Today for the Econ Baro we've Sep's Philly Fed Index and Aug's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Sep '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, the BEGOS Markets are higher across the board, led by Oil +2.0%, Silver +0.8%, and then both Gold and the Spoo +0.6%; save for the Bond with just a 24% EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges), volatility is moderate. Per the S&P's Moneyflow page we show a material net outflow since the beginning of Sep, even though the Index itself is but -2.8% month-to-day; the outflow most notably appears on the page's 21-day chart (center graphic). The Econ Baro looks to Sep's NAHB Housing Index, Aug's Retail Sales, and Jul's Business Inventories.
15 Sep '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Similar to yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are higher, this time including Oil +1.7% as the upside leader, with only the Bond -0.1% in the red. Higher, too, are Silver +1.4%, the Spoo +0.8% and Gold +0.7%; volatility is mostly moderate. But by Market Trends, only Silver and Copper are in 21-day linreg trends which are positive, the other 6 components showing theirs as negative: 'twas just mid-summer that all 8 of the bunch were in uptrends. Today's Econ Baro metrics are Sep's NY State Empire Index along with Aug's Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil.
14 Sep '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin a busy week mostly in the black with only Oil -0.5% and the Bond -0.1% in the red. To the upside we've the Spoo +1.1% and Silver +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having gone to sleep even as this normally markets-hectic time of the year unfolds: price appears to be consolidating however near-term technicals are turning negative: again, should price slip below the lower 1900s, there really is no notable foothold structure until 1830. Highlighting this week are 16 incoming Econ Baro metrics plus the FOMC's policy statement come Wed.
11 Sep '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher toward wrapping up (not unexpectedly) a rather hectic week, although the PMs were somewhat subdued throughout: only the Bond -0.2% is in the red, with the PMs "unch". To the upside is Copper +2.2%, followed by Oil +0.9% and then the Spoo +0.8%. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Sep into Dec, and we expect the same for the Spoo as the session further unfolds; (note the Dec Spoo is priced 10 points below that for Sep). At Markets Trends, the "Baby Blues" are dropping for every component except those for the Bond. The Econ Baro finishes the week with Aug's CPI and Treasury Budget.
10 Sep '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets are lower, Copper -1.3%, Oil -0.9% and the Spoo -0.3%. The balance of the bunch are all higher, led by Silver +0.7%, the Swiss Franc +0.4% and the Euro +0.3%: the latter ought be in play given the ECB's monetary decision within the hour, followed by Lagarde come 14:30 CET. By Market Values, the Euro is (in real-time) right on its valuation line and its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are (in real-time) right down upon the 0% axis line, meaning the 21-day linreg trend is now flat. The Econ Baro looks to 1st-time Jobless Claims stabilizing sub-1M, Aug's PPI and Jul's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Sep '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed, although volatility is robust for both the Spoo (+0.6%) with an EDTR tracing of 116% as well as for Oil (+1.2%), its like tracing at 100%. The balance of the bunch are changed either way by 0.5% or less. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are in accelerative fall for the Euro, Swiss Franc, Oil and the Spoo; those for Copper appear (in real-time) to have just topped. Oil's 6.8% fall yesterday finds it today some 5 points below its smooth valuation line (at Market Values). Yesterday's bullish Consumer Credit report for Jul pushed the Econ Baro to its highest oscillative reach since 06 Dec 2018.
08 Sep '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues for the BEGOS Markets, volatility expectedly increasing: Oil (-4.7%), the Spoo (-0.5%) and the Swiss Franc (-0.4%) have all exceeded 100% tracings of their respective EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Only the Bond +0.4% is in the black, the PMs seeing Silver -1.3% and Gold -1.0%. Moving deeper into Sep, (the stock market's so-called "worst month of the year"), we've the "live" P/E of the S&P at 57.7x with the Spoo's "Baby Blues" as noted yesterday having crossed below their +80% axis. The Econ Baro starts its week late in the session with Jul's Consumer Credit.
07 Sep '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are shut for Labor Day, however the BEGOS Markets are into their 2-day (Mon-Tue) session, all of the components (save for the Bond +0.1%) in the red. Weakest is Oil -0.9%, followed by all three members of the metals triumvirate -0.3% each. Volatility is light-to-moderate. We've 2 confirmed Spoo negatives: by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are breaking down, indeed below their key +80% axis, suggestive of still lower price levels; and the popular MACD on the daily bars has crossed downward, such study being one of 58 qualifying at present on the Market Rhythms page. The Gold Update debunks the conventional wisdom of Sep-Nov being Gold-positive.
04 Sep '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Spoo +0.1% has steadied following yesterday's -3.5% S&P 500 loss; indeed as was the case 'round this time both Mon and Tue, only the Bond -0.1% and Swiss Franc also -0.1% are in the red; firmest is Oil +1.0%, followed by Silver +0.8% and then Copper +0.7%; volatility ranges from light for both the Swiss Franc and Gold with EDTR tracings of less than 40% to robust for the Spoo's 117% tracing. By Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, however not so much as to drop below the key +80% level (at present +85%, down from +90% at yesterday's settle). Aug's Payrolls come into the Econ Baro ahead of the StateSide 3-day weekend, (stocks being closed Mon, but Globex trading opening per usual on Sun with a 5-hr. halt during Mon).
03 Sep '20, 04:47 Pacific Time: The "live" P/E of the S&P now stands at 62.0x. And 'tis as if 'tis is affecting the entire BEGOS Markets spectrum: recall as the Dollar lost strength across the last several months there was a period of time when all 8 BEGOS components were in 21-day linreg uptrends? Whilst now is not necessarily the beginning of the whole bunch turning south, nonetheless all 8 markets today are down, the Spoo itself -0.4%. Weakest is Oil -2.8%, followed by Copper -1.6%, and then Silver -1.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Mind the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. For the Econ Baro come Jobless Claims 'round the 1M level, Aug's ISM(Svc) Index, Jul's Trade Deficit, and Q2's revision to Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
02 Sep '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: Red returns to the BEGOS Markets, the exceptions being the Spoo +0.6% and Copper +0.3%; weakest is Silver -1.6%, followed by the Euro -0.4% and then Gold -0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. Yesterday's noting of the EuroCurrencies' "Baby Blues" having curtailed their falling finds them (in real-time) weakening again: the Euro's (at present 1.1865) dominant underlying 10-Day Market Profile support price is 1.1820 whist the Swiss Franc (at present 1.0982) has already slipped below its dominant Profile support price of 1.1010. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's ADP Employment data and Vehicle Sales, plus Jul's Factory Orders. Later in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
01 Sep '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Again per this time yesterday we've only the the Bond -0.3% and Swiss Franc -0.1% in the red; firmest is the metals triumvirate with Silver +2.7% and Gold +1.2%, followed by Copper +0.6%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both EuroCurrencies have curbed their respective descents without the underlying linreg trends having turned negative, the Euro today topping 1.20 for the 1st time since May 2018; the currency is in sync with it smooth Market Values line and not excessively above its Market Magnet. Today's Econ Baro takes in Aug's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jul's Construction Spending.
31 Aug '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mostly higher: only the Bond -0.3% and barely so the Swiss Franc are in the red; best to the upside is Silver +1.4%, followed by Oil +1.2% and then Copper +0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update highlights 2 key technical studies turning negative: the 21-day linreg trend and weekly Parabolic now Short after a Long run of 22 weeks. That stated, both PMs' 10-day Market Profiles are displaying rather "bulbous" underlying support. Stocks are not our primary focus, however today marks the 4-for-1 split for AAPL, which of its own accord makes up 7% of the entire S&P 500's capitalization weighting; (add in MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOG and those Top 5 are 23% of the Index). And of course, 'tis always wise to mind our S&P Valuation and Rankings page, (the "live" P/E at present 60.2x).
28 Aug '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: In a reverse of this time yesterday, save for the Bond -0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the black with the metals triumvirate leading the way: firmest is Silver +1.9% followed by Gold +1.6% and then Copper +1.1%. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, the EuroCurrencies (and whilst not as yet a BEGOS component, certainly so the Yen) tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, (the Yen indeed 240% as Abe steps down). The non-stop rise (and notably strong monetary inflow) of the S&P finds the Spoo by Market Values some 177 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line as well as some 77 points above its Market Magnet. A bevy of metrics for the Econ Baro includes Aug's Chi PMI, plus Jul's Personal Income/Spending, and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Index.
27 Aug '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, but not severely so, ahead of Chair Powell's "virtual" annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium address. Weakest is the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.4%, followed by Gold -0.9% and then Copper -0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is at a record high 61.0x. Cac volume into week's end is rolling from Sep into Dec for Copper, Silver and the Bond. The Econ Baro looks to another 1M 1st-time Jobless Claims, Jul's Pending Home Sales, and the 2nd look at Q2 GDP, (the 1st peek having been -32.9% annualized).
26 Aug '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Only Copper +0.6% is higher amongst the BEGOS Markets; however, none worse to the downside are Gold and Oil, both -0.6%, followed by silver -0.5% and then the Bond -0.4%; volatility is mostly light, and by Market Ranges , those components with EDTRs rising of late are seeing them curtail their ascents. By the PMs' Market Profiles, trading resistance shows for Gold at 1941 (at present 1925) and for Silver at 26.75 (at present 26.52), with scant underlying support by that study in both cases. Jul's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
25 Aug '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond -0.5% is weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the PMs with Silver -0.3% and Gold -0.2%; to the upside we've Oil +0.8%, the Spoo +0.4%, and then the EuroCurrencies both +0.3%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. By Market Trends, Gold has rotated into a 21-day linreg downtrend, the only other component as such being the Bond; however, the "Baby Blues" for the EuroCurrencies and Silver are swiftly falling. The "live" P/E of the S&P is nearing 60x (59.3x at present). The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Consumer Confidence and Jul's New Home Sales.
24 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Just barely the Bond -0.1% is lower in the BEGOS Markets beginning the week; to the upside we've both Oil and Copper +0.9% followed by the Spoo +0.8% and then Gold +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price's Profile positioning (per Fri's settle at 1947) as a key area to hold, the first structural foothold below that being 1830; for 4 straight weeks Gold has traced ranges exceeding 100 points; price presently is 1958. Q2 Earnings Season has formally finished: for the 1,744 reports collected, only 36% improved, making it the worst earnings period since Q2 2009; and with the Spoo pointing to a record high open today, our "live" P/E for the S&P is now a whopping 58.1x.
21 Aug '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower with just the Bond +0.2%; weakest is Copper -1.7%, followed by Silver -1.2%, Oil -1.0% and Gold -0.8%; volatility is moderate, the only outlier be the Euro's 108% EDTR tracing. Gold, despite its recent volatility, is by Market Values as near to its smooth valuation line as 'tis been since the start of July; the same study for the Spoo find it 75 points "high". The Econ Baro rounds out the week with Jul's Existing Home Sales; and what has been a dismal Q2 Earnings Season -- not by "beating estimates", rather by money made -- draws to a close.
20 Aug '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the upside leader being Silver +0.9% followed by the Bond and Swiss Franc both +0.4%; on the downside we've Copper -1.1% and then Oil -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate. Copper's trading above 3 yesterday was the 1st such time in better than 2 years: we'd been looking for a drop from the mid-2.90s to 2.71 given the cascade by red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), price getting down to as far as 2.77 a week ago before turning back up. Gold is far quieter this session following its very volatile bouncing from 2089 down to 1874, then up to 2025 and then yesterday down to 1934. The Econ Baro looks to another 1st-time Jobless Claims reading just either side of 1M, along with Aug's Philly Fed Index and Jul's Leading Indicators.
19 Aug '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the PMs are lower with Silver -1.0% and Gold -0.7%; Copper +1.0% leads the BEGOS Markets followed by modest gains for the balance of the bunch; volatility is mostly light, again in the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) have increased for several of the components. Both the S&P 500 and Spoo closed yesterday at all-time highs, albeit the latter has yet to breach the 3398 intra-day high of 20 Feb, (3394 being the high so far in this session). The weak Q2 Earnings Season (in its final week) in concert with the Index's rise has our "live" S&P P/E up at 55.1x. The FOMC's 28/29 Jul Meeting Minutes come due late session.
18 Aug '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil -0.1% is the only BEGOS Market in the red, its cac volume as well rolling from Sep to Oct. Leading to the upside is Silver +2.9% followed by Gold +1.1% which is back above 2000 for the 1st time since last Tue (11 Aug); volatility is moderate. The Spoo continues its flirt with an all-time high (3398 of 20 Feb), being this session 9 points shy so far to 3389; by Market Trends, the Spoo is the only component whose "Baby Blues" have yet to let go to the downside in at least the last week. And by Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 95 points "high", the Moneyflow also having be very firm across the prior several weeks. Jul's Housing Starts/Permits come int the Econ Baro.
17 Aug '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Starting off the week finds 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets in the black, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +2.1%, Gold +0.6% and Copper +0.5%; only Oil -0.6% is in the red; volatility is light-to-moderate within the context that several of the components by the Market Ranges page are sporting above-average EDTRs even as we glide into the "dog days of August". The Gold Update cautions becoming enamoured with price's ShortSide despite the lurch lower of late. The Econ Baro begins its week with Aug's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
14 Aug '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower with Silver -3.0% bearing the brunt of the damage, followed by Gold and Oil both -0.4%; to the upside we've Copper +1.2% and the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" depicting consistency are now dropping for 6 of the 8 components, albeit only Copper and the Bond are in actual 21-day linreg downtrends. At Market Values, Gold has worked off much off its extreme excess above the smooth valuation line, albeit price (in real-time) still shows as 63 points "high". A bevy of 8 data metrics hit the Econ Baro today, including Aug's UofM Sentiment Survey, Jul's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, Jun's Business Inventories, plus Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
13 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, the leaders being the PMs with Silver +4.2% followed by Gold +1.2%; weakest is Copper -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate, although the Spoo has traced just 29% of its EDTR. The Spoo's last 3 daily highs (including today thus far) are 3379, 3383 and 3376: the all-time intra-day high is 3398 (20 Feb). The "live" P/E of the S&P is 55.3x. Yet despite these tell-tale signs of a top and severe overvaluation, the Moneyflow into the Index has been strong especially during last week, (mind the Moneyflow page). As for the Econ Baro, 1st-time Jobless Claims are expected to remain above 1MM+, and due, too, is Jul's Ex/Im pricing.
12 Aug '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.5% is lower amongst the BEGOS Markets. Leading the balance of the pack is Silver +4.2%, followed by Oil +1.5% and then Gold +1.1%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond, Gold and Silver all tracing in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Mind, too, the Market Trends page as several components' "Baby Blues" are starting to become unglued: just as all 8 of the bunch have been rising, so, too, can they all fall. Support/resistance apices show quite stark in the PMs Market Profiles. Jul's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
11 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond -0.4% and the metals triumvirate are the BEGOS Markets losers, with Silver -3.2%, Gold -2.1% (and sub-2000), and Copper -0.4%; firmest is Oil +1.8%, followed by the Spoo +0.7% and then the 2 EuroCurrencies, both +0.4%; volatility is moderate, although Gold has traced 123% of its EDTR. Looking at Market Values, Gold (which as stated in the current Gold Update is well "overbought" by any technical measure of your choice) is in real-time some 123 points "high" and the Spoo is 115 points "high". And at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have accelerated their fall sub-0%, whilst those for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold (the latter only just so in real-time) are all rolling over to the downside. Kicking off the Econ Baro's busy week is Jul's PPI.
10 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Copper +2.0% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets in starting the week; up, too, are Oil +0.4% and the Bond +0.1%; the other 5 components are down, including the Swiss Franc -0.6%, Silver -0.4%, and then the Euro and Gold both -0.3%; volatility is moderate, the only exception being Copper having traced 106% of its EDTR. In affirmation of Gold's achieving 2000, The Gold Update deems price (whilst near-term overbought) as nonetheless still well-undervalued relative to currency debasement, whilst the S&P can be halved and still be deemed as expensive. The week looks to 16 metrics scheduled for the Econ Baro.
07 Aug '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Ahead of Jul's Payrolls data we've the BEGOS Markets down almost across the board, save for just the Bond +0.1%. Weakest is Silver -2.2%, followed by Copper -1.3% and then Oil -1.0%; volatility is moderate, albeit Silver has traced 128% of its EDTR: 'tis the one component at Market Ranges whose EDTR plot has all but plowed through the roof of its graphic, (were it not for increased axis scaling capability). And yes, by Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) moved sub-0% without price having broken down. Gold has made an All-Time High (2089) for the 6th straight session. Due, too, for the Econ Baro are Jun's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
06 Aug '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets with safe havens getting the bid: Silver is +3.1%, followed by the Bond +0.5% and then Gold +0.4%; losing are Oil -1.2% and then Copper -1.0% followed by the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) reaching all the way down to their 0% axis still without price having really come off; however by Market Profiles, the red metal (at present 2.8920) is just below its most dominant apex (2.8925). The "live" P/E of the S&P is 50.5x as the weak Q2 Earnings Season continues. Another 1M+ 1st-time Jobless claims come due for the Econ Baro.
05 Aug '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: In a bit of a reversal from this time yesterday, only the Bond is instead in the red, -0.4%; leading the other 7 BEGOS Markets higher is Oil +3.2%, followed by Silver +2.7% and then Copper +1.0%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, both Oil and Silver tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The Gold/Silver ratio is down to 76.3x its closest approach to the 2001-to-date average (66x) in better than 3 years (10 Jun '17). And lower still fall Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) without price bending to their decay. The Econ Baro awaits Jul's ADP Employment Change and Jun's Trade Deficit.
04 Aug '20, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.3% and less so the EuroCurrencies are in the black; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are led lower by Oil -1.4%, and then Copper -0.9% followed by Silver and the Spoo both -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are falling further still, but it remains that price itself (2.89) hasn't materially cracked. Q2 Earnings Season finds just 33% of the S&P 500 constituents having thus far beating their bottom lines from Q2 a year ago (which, considering the COVID shutdowns, may not seem that poor) albeit it is ramping up our live P/E of the S&P, at present 49.3x. Jun's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
03 Aug '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mostly red start to the Week for the BEGOS Markets with Oil -0.9% leading the downside pack, followed by Silver -0.8% and then the Swiss Franc -0.5%; only the Spoo +0.3% and Copper +0.9% are in the black, the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are nonetheless accelerating their dive; per our 28/29 Jul notes, a red metal move sub-2.84 can bring 2.70, this session's low 2.83 prior to some resiliency. Overall volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to price having tapped 2000, albeit having not as yet settled above that milestone. The busy week for the Econ Baro begins with Jul's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, plus Jun's Construction Spending.
31 Jul '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Front month (Dec) Gold has topped 2000 for the 1st time ever, price at present 1993 (+1.0%); Silver +2.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets: Gold/Silver = 82.3x. The economically-driven components are the weak links with Copper -0.6%, plus Oil and the Spoo both -0.4%; volatility is again moderate-to-robust, today's EDTR tracing leader being Gold at 104%. By the Market Values page, Gold is reading some 168 points "high", a very extreme level but not fundamentally unwarranted. At Market Trends, we've further fallout in Copper's "Baby Blues", but with price having not materially departed the 2.90s these past 2 weeks. The Econ Baro closes out the week with a busy session that includes Jul's Chi PMI, Jun's Personal Income/Spending and fed-favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, and Q2's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jul '20, 04:40 Pacific Time: Cac volume for Gold has moved -- with +22 points of price premium -- from Aug into Dec; the yellow metal is -0.8%, the other BEGOS Markets components (save for the Bond +0.4%) also all in the red, lead by Silver -4.1%, Oil -2.2%, and Copper -1.4%. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, Silver again tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR: such measure for the white metal comparably stands out sharply at Market Ranges. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are continuing their fall. 'Tis an important day for incoming data as, in addition to another 1M+ expected 1st-time Jobless Claims comes the dourly (-35%) anticipated 1st peek at Q2 GDP: of note, the Econ Baro fell to Apr data, but rose to that for both May and Jun. On verra...
29 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Ahead of today's FOMC Policy Statement, session volatility is at best moderate with no one BEGOS Markets component at present changed by more than 1% either way: firmest is Oil +0.8% and weakest are the Bond and Silver, both -0.2%. Copper's "Baby Blues" confirmed falling below their +80% axis and today are lower still, again suggesting 2.70 should 2.84 give way, (currently 2.92). Moreover, in this stint of "everything is up" on Dollar weakness, such can all reverse, especially as the Dollar Index enters structural support in this 93-90 area. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Pending Home Sales.
28 Jul '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold's latest record high is now 1975, however price has since pulled back: on the session 'tis now -0.7% (at 1925); weakest of the BEGOS Markets, (and not surprisingly given its recent volatility) is Silver -4.4%; firmest is the Swiss Franc +0.2%; volatility is moderate, save for the PM's extreme EDTR tracings: that for Silver is 444% and for Gold is 288%. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) falling below the key +80% axis: presently 2.88, a move sub-2.84 could well bring 2.70 given the red metal's relentless up move which began leveling off some 2 weeks ago. July's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
27 Jul '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Gold has moved up further still to an All-Time High of 1942; at present 'tis 1940, +2.1%, bettered amongst the BEGOS Markets only by Silver +6.8%: The Gold Update underscores how Silver remains comparatively undervalued to record-setting Gold. The balance of the bunch are fractionally higher, save for the Swiss Franc -0.1%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with 4 of the components tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, Silver notably with a 252% tracing. The Econ Baro -- which has basically rebounded to pre-Covid levels -- kicks off a key data week with Jun's Durable Orders.
24 Jul '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Again we've a mixed session for the BEGOS Markets as Gold nears its All-Time Closing High milestone of 1900. Shall it be attained ahead of tomorrow's edition of The Gold Update? On verra... Firmest at present is Oil +0.9% whilst weakest is Copper -1.2%; volatility is essentially moderate with only Copper tracing (just barely) beyond 100% of its EDTR by Market Ranges. Silver has eased a bit of its excess above its Market Magnet; Gold yesterday finished 53 points above same. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for all 3 metals are beginning to sag somewhat. The Econ Baro completes its quiet week with Jun's New Home Sales.
23 Jul '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Net changes at present are subtle for the BEGOS Markets: up the most is Copper +0.6% and down the most is Silver -0.9%, the latter being a comparably small change given the white metal's recent daily leaps; session volatility ranges from light for the Bond with just a 25% EDTR tracing to robust for the PMs, both sporting EDTR tracings in excess of 100% despite their muted net changes. For the 2nd time since a week ago, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked below their +80% axis even as the yellow metal seems gunning for the All-Time Closing High of 1900, (price this session having thus far reached 1888). Due for the Econ Baro is another expected 1M+ of 1st-time Jobless Claims plus Jun's Leading Indicators.
22 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver after gaining 6.8% yesterday has been up in this session as much as another 6.8%; at present 'tis +3.8%, the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.9%, the Gold/Silver ratio now down to 82.4x. Weakest of the bunch is Copper -0.8% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility is again moderate-to-robust, Silver itself having traced 255% of its EDTR; not surprisingly given the price move, Silver is comparably excessive above its Market Magnet. Gold's high in this session (1867) is but 33 points from the All-Time Closing High of 1900. The Econ Baro awaits Jun's Existing Home Sales.
21 Jul '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: Gold's daily Parabolics are flipping back to Long and the "Baby Blues" (by Market Trends) have moved back above their +80% axis, both events negating the technical negativity as presented in the most recent Gold Update. The yellow metal is +0.5% in the current session, but far firmer is Silver +2.9%, the session leader at present being Oil +3.2%. There is only marginal weakness in both the Bond and the Euro. Volatility is moderate-to-robust with Silver tracing 127% of its EDTR (by Market Ranges) and Oil 111% of same. The Gold/Silver ratio, whilst still historically high, is down to 87.4x after exceeding 100x as recently as 24 Jun. The Dollar has traded down to its lowest level (95.550) since 10 Mar. Judy "Gold Standard" Shelton shall be assessed today by the Senate Banking Committee as reagrds a Fed Governorship.
20 Jul '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The start of the week finds the BEGOS Markets mildly mixed with no one component at present changed by more than 1% in either direction: firmest is Silver +0.7% and weakest is Oil -0.9%; volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update points to both Gold's daily Parabolics continuing as Short and the "Baby Blues" (by Market Trends) having slipped below their +80% axis, albeit in real-time, the latter have kinked up a tad to sit upon that axis whilst price itself hasn't let go to the downside whatsoever. The Econ Baro has a very light week with nothing scheduled for it until Wed; the expectedly weak Q2 Earnings Seasons ramps up the pace of incoming reports this week.
17 Jul '20, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Oil -0.5% is in the red, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets moving higher with a shade of Dollar weakness, both Gold and the Swiss Franc +0.5% followed by the Euro +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Nonetheless, Gold is into its 4th session of being in a daily parabolic Short trend, albeit without having really let go to the downside whatsoever, price having only teased the 1790s throughout; still, by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking below their +80% axis, indicative if confirmed of lower levels near-term. The Econ Baro completes to this point a robust week with UoM's Sentiment Survey and Jun's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Amongst the BEGOS Markets, only the Bond +0.2% is in the black; the downside leaders are Copper -1.0%, followed by Silver -0.9%, the Spoo -0.7% and Oil -0.6%; the latter one's cac volume is moving from Aug into Sep; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, all 8 components remain in 21-day linreg uptrends, however several of the bunch are starting to see their "Baby Blues" moving lower. And at Market Profiles, Gold is building a dominant volume trading range between 1807-1813. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro with another expected 1M+ in 1st-time Jobless Claims, Jul's Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, Jun's Retail Sales, and May's Business Inventories.
15 Jul '20, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.3% and Oil +1.0% are the BEGOS Markets leaders; of note, the latter component's EDTR by Market Ranges has halved itself from that of 3 months ago and comparatively is narrow vis-a-vis the balance of the bunch as they all come off from the COVID-induced extremes. To the downside is the Bond -0.3% followed by Gold and the Swiss Franc both -0.2%; volatility is moderate, albeit Copper has by a tad exceeded 100% of its EDTR. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's NY Empire State Index plus Jun's Ex/Im pricing and IndProd/Cap/Util.
14 Jul '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag: weakest is Silver -0.8% followed by Gold -0.5%; as anticipated in The Gold Update, the yellow metal's daily Parabolics have flipped to Short such that the near-term test is to still hold The Northern Front (1800-1750). To the firm side we've Copper +0.5% and both Oil and the Spoo +0.4%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, all 8 components remain in 21-day linreg uptrends, albeit Oil's "Baby Blues" are again kinking lower in real-time. The Econ Baro looks to June's CPI.
13 Jul '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver +2.3% is the big BEGOS Markets' winner as the week commences, followed by Copper +1.3% and then both Gold and the Spoo +0.7%; the weakest component is Oil -2.0%; volatility is mostly moderate, although Oil has traced by Market Ranges 156% of its EDTR; by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, the only one in the bunch to so do. The Gold Update heralds price's initial tour of The Final Frontier (1800-1900) but cautions that the daily Parabolics are near to flipping Short. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of a week incorporating 16 incoming metrics. Q2 Earnings Season picks up its reporting pace this week as bank results come to the fore.
10 Jul '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag: weakest is Oil -1.5%, with the Spoo and Swiss Franc both -0.5%; on the upside we've Silver +0.8%, Copper +0.7%, and then the Bond +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond having traced 111% of its EDTR. At present by Market Trends, all 8 components are in 21-day linreg uptrends with none of the "Baby Blues" in descent. And at Market Profiles, the bunch are all above their respective midpoints except for Oil which is centered in its range. Due for the Econ Baro is Jun's PPI.
09 Jul '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper +1.5%, Silver +0.7%, and the Bond +0.2% are the BEGOS Markets components in the black, the balance of the bunch just mildly lower; volatility runs from light (Oil and the Spoo sporting EDTR tracings of less than 30%) to robust (Copper with a 102% EDTR tracing). The Moneyflow into the S&P has been as firm as we've seen in recent memory, especially on the Moneyflow page's one week and one month charts, suggestive that the Index (3170) is heading to at least its all-time high (3398) near-to-medium term, (barring some firm fundamental fallout: mind the Q2 Earnings Season page). The Econ Baro looks to a further 1M+ 1st-time Jobless Claims, plus May's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Jul '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold settled yesterday above 1800 (at 1808) for the first time since 20 Sep 2011; at present 'tis +0.4% at 1815. Leading the BEGOS Markets on the upside is Silver +1.3%, followed by Copper +0.7%; to the downside we've only the Bond -0.1%, thus fairly a mirror per 24 hours ago; however, volatility is just mostly light. By its Market Profile, Gold has built in some trading support at 1807, furthered by 1795, and then 1784, its most dominant apex: by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are now moving across that chart's ceiling. The Econ Baro looks to May's Consumer Credit.
07 Jul '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond barely +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the component off the most being Silver -1.7%, followed by Oil -1.3% and then Copper -1.2%; volatility is again moderate. Despite today's weakness, by Market Profiles, none of them at present show price below their respective upper halves; by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" appear toppy, whilst those for the Bond have kinked lower. The Market Rhythms page presently lists 47 qualifying technical studies. And as Q2 Earnings Season begins, our "live" P/E for the S&P is 42.0x.
06 Jul '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Mon session (which technically began post-StateSide bourses close on Thu) finds the BEGOS Markets mostly higher, the only two weak links being the Bond -0.3% and Gold -0.1%; The Gold Update heralds price having "taken" the The Northern Front but not quite yet having "won" it. To the upside we've Silver +1.5%, followed by the Spoo +1.2% and then Oil +0.9%; session volatility is moderate. Silver's push today has reduced the Gold/Silver ratio to 96.4x, (of course still excessively high given the 2001-to-date average of 65.9x). Q2 Earnings Season gets underway this week. And the Econ Baro begins a light week for incoming metrics with Jun's ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Jul '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Despite the StateSide bourses' holiday closure, the BEGOS Markets are underway in what via the GLOBEX trading platform is classified as Mon's session: most of the components are either side of "unch", the exceptions being Copper -0.9% and then Oil -0.4%; volatility not-unexpectedly is quite light. At Market Values, the deviations from price by the respective smooth lines having been excessive given the dramatic sub-zero plunge by Oil (20-21 Apr), have normalized. As well by Market Magnets, we deem none of the present deviations as extreme. And at Market Trends, save for the Euro and the Spoo, the balance of the bunch are in linreg uptrends. The "live" P/E for the S&P is 39.8x and the Gold Silver ratio is 97.9x. Tomorrow's Gold Update shall affirm price having finally taken The Northern Front (1750-1800), but not having realistically as yet won it, (present price = 1788). A safe StateSide holiday to All.
02 Jul '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: 'Tis the week's final trading day for StateSide bourses, albeit the BEGOS Markets commence their "Mon" session come 15:00 Pacific Time today, halting at 10:00 tomorrow (Fri) before continuing Sun at 15:00 per usual. At present the components are mixed with Oil +1.0% the firmest and both Silver and Copper -0.3% the weakest; volatility is light ahead of a batch of Econ Baro data including weekly 1st-Time Jobless Claims of which yet another 1+ million are expected, along with Jun's Payrolls data, and May's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Jul '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Gold yesterday finally took The Northern Front (1750-1800), trading further in this session to as high as 1807, before pulling back. Only Oil +0.4% is at present in the black for the BEGOS Markets; amongst the other 7, weakest is the Spoo -0.5%, followed by Copper -0.4% and then the Bond and Euro, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate, (although the unofficial component of the Yen has traced 111% of its EDTR). By its Market Profile, the Spoo having slipped below its most dominant trading apex of 3098 would see the 2nd most dominant area in the 3046-3039 area. The Econ Baro's busy day includes Jun's ADP Employment data, ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, along with May's Construction Spending. Too, we've the FOMC minutes from the 09-10 Jun meeting.
30 Jun '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Toward Q2's close the session finds most of the BEGOS Markets mildly in the red, the weakest being Oil -1.0%, followed by the Euro -0.3%. The Swiss Franc is "unch" and Copper is +0.7%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. With the exception of the Euro and the Spoo, at Market Ranges most of the EDTRs have returned to more "normal" levels seen toward a year ago. At Market Trends, Silver has reversed the decline by its "Baby Blues", the 21-day linreg trend still negative but less consistently so. Jun's Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence work their way into the Econ Baro.
29 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The abbreviated trading week StateSide starts with just the Bond -0.1% in the red for the BEGOS Markets; firmest is Oil +1.3%, followed by Copper +0.9% and then both the Euro and Silver +0.5%, the white metal's cac volume moving from Jul into Sep. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update is anticipative of the yellow metal hitting 1800 fairly straightaway, albeit price (1786) has been rather subdued with 44% of the EDTR thus far traced; Gold's most dominant Market Profile support is 1770. The Econ Baro begins its busy week of 16 incoming metrics with May's Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: All 8 components of the BEGOS Markets are mildly in the black, the best 2 being Copper +0.7% and Silver +0.2% with the balance only up a skosh; volatility is light ahead of metrics for the Econ Baro that include May's Personal Income/Spending along with the Fed's favoured inflation gauge of Core PCE. Per Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" confirmed moving below their +80% axis such at to suggest a move down toward the mid 1.04s level last seen 2 weeks ago at Market Profiles, the Franc's (at present 1.0579) 2 most dominate volume apices are 1.0570 and 1.0540. Copper's cac volume is moving from Jul into Sep.
25 Jun '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: After making 4 consecutive "higher highs", Gold appears en route to not surpass that for yesterday of 1796, price at present "unch" at 1772; Silver +0.4% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, even as her "Baby Blues" by Market Trends further their fall; only those for the Bond and Gold are rising; Oil -1.2% is the weakest component; volatility is again moderate. Market Profile support for Oil (presently 37.44) is at 36.60, whilst that for the Spoo (presently 3038) is at 2991. The Econ Baro looks to 1st-time Jobless Claims still exceeding the 1M level, May's Durable Orders, and a finalized Q1 GDP at 'round a -5.0% annualized pace.
24 Jun '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold +0.5% is nearing the top of The Northern Front (1750-1800), the session's high to this point being 1796; the only other BEGOS Market in the black (barely) is the Bond +0.1%; weakest is Oil -1.1%, followed by Silver -0.7% (as the Gold/Silver ratio climbs to 99.7x), and then the Euro -0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, the most notable "Baby Blues" declines are for Silver, the Euro and the Spoo. The latter, at present 3098, is just below its most dominate Market Profile support price of 3010; for the S&P itself, its Moneyflow has been much firmer than the Index, the "live" P/E (in this zero interest environment) nonetheless a lofty 39.1x.
23 Jun '20, 04:09 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are to the upside, led by Oil +2.1% and then the Spoo and Silver both +0.7%; that noted, the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their drop below the 0% axis whilst those for Gold ascend: the Gold/Silver ratio is again approaching 100x, at present 98.8x. Session volatility is moderate, the Spoo with the largest EDTR tracing at 97% following out-of-context confusion, then clarified, on the trade deal with China. New Home Sales for May come into the Econ Baro.
22 Jun '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: After the Spoo's -1.3% drop on Fri, 'tis regained as much aa +1.3% in starting the week: at present 'tis +0.7%, bettered only by Silver and Copper, both +0.9%; none of the other BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update highlights price's 6th foray up into The Northern Front (1750-1800): this session's gains to 1776 have largely eroded, price now 1759, +0.1%. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" continue their cascade, price thus far this session recording a 4th consecutive "lower high". May's Existing Home Sales begin the Econ Baro's week.
19 Jun '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: As we saw yesterday, most of the BEGOS Markets are in the black with just the Bond and Euro not quite barely above "unch". Firmest is Oil +2.4%, followed by Copper +1.4% and then Silver +1.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. As anticipated per Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" confirmed dropping below their +80% axis, suggestive of still price lower levels: presently 1.1218 we don't note any structural support until 1.1014. The same measure for Copper,, as also noted yesterday, has since confirmed kinking back above the +80% level, nixing a downside notion for now. Q1's Current Account Deficit completes the Econ Baro's climbing week.
18 Jun '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: Only Gold -0.2% and the Spoo -0.1% are lower, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets mostly being higher with Oil +1.4%, Copper +1.1%, and Silver +0.5%; volatility continues at a moderate pace. Copper's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing below their +80% axis yesterday, however in real-time they've kinked back up; those for the Euro (in real-time) are provisionally below that +80% mark. Silver's 21-day linreg trend has rotated from positive to negative. Looking to the Econ Baro is the expectation for another 1M+ in 1st-time Jobless Claims, plus Jun's Philly Fed Index and May's Leading Indicators.
17 Jun '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: There's less bias one way or the other than we've seen in recent days for the BEGOS Markets. To the upside is the Spoo +0.7%, Copper +0.5% and Silver +0.4%; to the down side is Gold -0.6%, and the Bond and Euro both -0.1%; volatility is moderate. As noted yesterday Copper's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are now (in real-time) dropping below their key +80% axis; those for the Euro are curling down but have yet to breach that axis. Oil's cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. Powell wraps up his 2-day Congressional testimony. Due for the Econ Baro are May's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher with Oil +1.7% leading the pack, followed by the Spoo +1.1% and then Copper +0.4%; only the Bond -0.5% is basically weaker. Session volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" crossed below their +80% axis, however the targeted area in the 35s has already been supportive the last 3 sessions; by the same signal however, we're minding both the Euro and Copper. Powell begins his 2-day testimony to Congress. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's NAHB Housing Index, May's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Apr's Business Inventories.
15 Jun '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: 'Tis mostly red across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum to start the week: only the Bond +0.6% and Swiss Franc +0.1% are in the black. Weakest is Oil -3.0% followed by Copper -2.8% and then the Spoo and Silver both -2.2%. The Gold Update again cites Silver as a downside concern near-term (the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends accelerating their drop) along with Gold lacking the nerve to take The Northern Front (1750-1800). Session volatility is moderate-to-robust as both Gold and the Spoo exceed EDTR tracings of 100%. The Spoo's cac volume is rolling from Jun into Sep. Jun's NY State Empire Index begins a fairly busy week for the Econ Baro.
12 Jun '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's -5.3% loss, the Spoo now +1.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; Copper is +1.5% and Oil +0.8%; weakest are yesterday's gainers at this time, the Bond -0.6% and the Swiss Franc -0.3%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. At Market Trends we've still lower levels for Silver's "Baby Blues" albeit price has really yet to let go to the downside, the PMs getting some safe-have stability; but that measure (in real-time) has now broken below the respective +80% axes for both Oil and the Spoo. The EuroCurrencies cac volume is rolling from Jun into Sep. The Econ Baro closes out the week with Jun's UofM Sentiment Survey and May's Ex/Im Pricing.
11 Jun '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: Turning back down from yesterday, the dovish FOMC notwithstanding, the BEGOS Market components ('cept for the Bond +0.5% and the Swiss Franc +0.1%) are in the red, the weakest being Oil -2.9% followed by the Spoo -2.0%, and then the metals triumvirate led by Copper -1.9% and Silver -1.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust: both the Spoo and Copper have exceeded 100% of their EDTR tracings. Despite Silver's +3.4% session yesterday, her "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue to descend. Due for the Econ Baro is May's PPI, plus another +1M in 1st-time Jobless Claims.
10 Jun '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, every BEGOS Market component ('cept for Oil -1.2%) is in the black: firmest is Copper +1.0%, followed by Silver +0.6% and then the Bond +0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" are now in their 6th straight day of diving, whilst those for Oil which have been pasted to the ceiling ought be monitored to soon drop should price this week remain lackluster. At Market Magnets, Copper is getting upside far afield relative to the past three months, economic recovery nonetheless boosting price. The Econ Baro looks to May's CPI, the Fed and Powell presser then later highlighting the session.
09 Jun '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by its economically-driven components with Oil -1.8% and the Spoo -0.8%; of note, Silver is -1.0% as by Market Trends its "Baby Blues" continue to drop; firmest is the Bond +0.7% followed by Gold +0.5% and then the Swiss Franc +0.4%; volatility is again moderate. The S&P's Moneyflow continues to lack the upside gains of late by the Index itself as shown on that page in both the one week and one month graphics. The Econ Baro begins its week with Apr's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Jun '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and EuroCurrencies are lower in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets. Firmest is Silver +1.7%, despite by Market Trends the white metal's "Baby Blues" having slipped below their +80 axis: this is highlighted as well in The Gold Update, wherein we also suggest Gold seeing at 1600 before 1800 given the lack of fundamental interest in pushing price up through The Northern Front (1750-1800); present price is 1699, +0.6%. Also higher this session Oil is +1.3. Volatility is moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio remains at an extremely high 95.0x and the "live" P/E of the S&P 500 is 38.5x.
05 Jun '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets are looking beyond what clearly shall be a horrid Payrolls report for May*: we've Oil +2.5%, Copper +1.7% and the Spoo +0.7%; the latter at 3134 is less than 8% (264 points) below its all-time high of 3398. Weakest this session are Silver -0.9%, Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both the Bond and Copper tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" are near to crossing below their +80% axis, which when confirmed would then suggest lower price levels. Additionally due late in the session for the Econ Baro is Apr's Consumer Credit. *Rather, "surprise" turn to the upside: 2.5M net new Payrolls (pre-revision) vs. consensus for reduction of 8.8M .
04 Jun '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Per yesterday's note on the S&P's Moneyflow, it weakened further still vis-à-vis the Index's rise yesterday: now we've the Spoo -0.4% which is 2nd on the downside only to Copper -0.6% amongst the BEGOS Markets; leading to the upside are the PMs with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. Presently 3104, the Spoo is on a Market Profile trading apex, below which the next one of note is 3090; continue to mind, too, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" along with those for Silver and Oil at Market Trends; those for the EuroCurrencies are also above their +80% axes. The Econ Baro awaits Apr's Trade Deficit and Q1's revision to Productivity and Unit Labor Costs; ECB & Lagarde presser on tap.03 Jun '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Just the Euro and the Spoo, both +0.3%, are in the black; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are led to the downside by Oil - 1.7%, Silver -1.1%, and Gold -0.5%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, notable "Baby Blues" patterns for which to anticipate curling to the downside include those for Oil, Silver and the Spoo. Specific to the S&P itself, per the Moneyflow page, that measure has been (on a near-term basis) underperforming the Index itself: across the past 5 sessions, it "ought be" some 40 points lower than 'tis, (i.e. the S&P is getting a bit frothy). Due for the Econ Baro are May's ADP Employment report and the ISM(Svc) Index, plus Apr's Factory Orders.
02 Jun '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil +2.0% is the upside leader of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo +0.5%, Copper +0.4% and the Euro +0.3%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility continues to run at a moderate pace. At Market Ranges, EDTRs remain mostly above their average high areas year-over-year in coming down from their Apr/May extremes. At Market Trends (and as is noted in the current Gold Update) the only BEGOS component with a negative 21-day linreg trend is the Bond. Gold at 1752 is now in its 3rd straight day of teasing the base of The Northern Front (1750-1800) without material upside push. May's Vehicle Sales roll in during the day for the Econ Baro.
01 Jun '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week on a mixed basis: firmest is Silver +0.5% whilst weakest is the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to price being net "unch" since the 07 April intra-day high of 1743 despite the StateSide M2 measure of the money supply being +8.8% since that date. Moreover since 24 April, Gold is -0.2%, but Silver is +20.4%. Still, the Gold/Ratio at present is 93.8x, extremely high, historically. Meanwhile, the S&P's "live" P/E is 39.7x. The Econ Baro's busy week starts with May's ISM(Mfg) Index and Apr's Construction Spending.
29 May '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: Only Oil -2.9% and the Spoo -0.3% are in the red, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the black, led by Silver +1.7%, plus both Gold and the Euro +0.5%; volatility is again moderate. For the 3rd straight session we've Oil having made a "lower high" to this point, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends only marginally slipping (at +92% in real-time); at Market Profiles, Oil (at present 32.76) shows trading support at 32.00, below which price can quickly accelerate lower. Cac volume in the Bond has rolled from Jun into Sep. Due for the Econ Baro are May's Chi PMI and UofM Sentiment revision, along with Apr's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Inflation. Pres. Trump holds a presser on PRC tensions.
28 May '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher with just the EuroCurrencies barely in the red. The upside is led by Oil +1.1%, Gold +1.0%, and then Silver +0.8%; volatility is moderate. Oil whilst up this session has nonetheless printed a "lower high" for the 2nd day running: per the Market Trends page the "Baby Blues" remain above +80% but again are slipping. We deem the S&P 500 as being overbought by its near-term classic measures of BollBands, Stochastics and RSI: as well, the "live" P/E is 39.7x. The Econ Baro looks to another 2 million 1st-time Jobless Claims, Apr's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales, plus the first revision to Q1 GDP.
27 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: We've a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being the Spoo +1.1% and the weakest link being Oil -0.5%; volatility ranges from light for both Oil and the Bond with EDTR tracings just in the 30% range to over 100% for both EuroCurrencies. Jun Gold is trading sub-1700 for the 1st time since 12 May, however volume is moving into the Aug cac for which there is some 20 points of premium. Per the Market Trends, page Oil appears in the early stages of forming a top such that the "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) mildly kinked lower, but at +94% remain well above the +80% axis that would otherwise suggest lower levels. The Fed's Tan Tome comes due at 11:00 Pacific Time.
26 May '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: Into this 2nd day of the session for Tue's settlement we've now only 2 BEGOS Markets in the red (vs. just 2 in the black at this point yesterday), namely Gold -0.6% and the Bond -0.3%; leading to the upside are the economically-driven components of the Spoo +1.7% (at present back above the 3000 level), Oil +1.6% and Copper +1.2%; volatility given the combined 2-day session has expanded from moderate-to-robust as 3 of the bunch have exceeded EDTR tracings of 100%. The Econ Baro begins its week of 12 incoming metrics with May's Consumer Confidence and Apr's New Home Sales.
25 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session for Tue settlement finds the BEGOS Markets mostly lower: only the Spoo +0.9% and Copper +0.7% are in the black; weakest is Silver -1.4% followed by Gold -0.4%. The Gold Update cautiously queries if COVID is priced into Gold, notably given its failed 3rd attempt to rise up and through The Northern Front, and further that a modest "vee" has formed for the Econ Baro ... on verra. Session volatility is mostly moderate, ranges obviously expected to expand given they'll count through tomorrow. Q1 Earnings Season is complete with just 46% of the S&P 500's constituents bettering their bottom lines over Q1 from a year ago ... with, we'd expect, a worse Q2 in the balance. With our physical bourses closed, Memorial Day is observed with a GLOBEX trading halt from 10:00 to 15:00 Pacific Time.
22 May '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are the weak links led by Oil -5.4%, Copper -1.8%, and the Spoo -0.2%; weak as well are the EuroCurrencies; to the upside is Gold +0.5%, followed by the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Oil and Copper exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. At Market Ranges, EDTRs are well off their extremes, but still above the norm in most cases. Oil at 32.09 is trading below its closes of prior four sessions: we'll be watching for the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) to eventually crack. The Econ Baro is set for the week, its first higher one in the last six; Q1 Earnings wrap up their worst Season since Q3 of 2009.
21 May '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the upside leader being Oil +2.2% and the Bond only +0.2%, followed by the Euro +0.1%; to the downside we've Silver -2.2% after having made 6 sessions of "higher highs", and then Gold -0.9%, (presently 1736) back south of The Northern Front (1750-1800), followed by the Spoo -0.7%; volatility is moderate. For the PMs, Gold shows nearest trading support by its Market Profile at 1724 while for Silver (presently 17.66) 'tis at 17.45. The Econ Baro awaits May's Philly Fed Index and Apr's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
20 May '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Only the Bond, off by just 2 pips, is in the red, the 7 other BEGOS Markets moving higher but with only the Spoo +1.2% up by better than +1.0%; volatility ranges from light with EDTR tracings of just 28% for both the Bond and Oil to robust by the Swiss Franc's 104% EDTR tracing. Gold at 1755 is creeping back up such as to tease the lower area of The Northern Front (1750-1800), whilst Silver continues to outpace the PMs on the upside, the Gold/Silver ratio further dropping to 97.6x. Oil has has a great month-over-month up run, its "Baby Blues" (at Market Trends) rising (in real-time) to 93%, but with price down for a 2nd day; and by the Market Values page, Oil is some 13 points "high".
19 May '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are thus far comparatively quiet, the biggest net changer being Oil -1.9%; the 7 other components are at present changed either way by less than 1.0%; volatility is moderate. Per the Market Trends page, several of the "Baby Blues" patterns appear rather erratic; 6 of the 8 markets are in 21-day linreg uptrends, the only 2 in downtrends being the Bond and just barely so the Swiss Franc. Per the S&P 500's Moneyflow page, yesterday's +3.2% rally was not fully supported by the flow, albeit the Spoo per the Market Profiles page has support apices down to 2907. Still, our "live" P/E for the S&P is 40.2x. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Housing Starts/Permits.
18 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +7.3%, Silver +4.0% and Copper +2.2% are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders into the new week, the Spoo, too, +1.3%. Only the Bond and the EuroCurrencies are lower, and just mildly at that; volatility again ranges from light-to-robust, depending on the component: the Swiss Franc's EDTR tracing is 37% whilst that for Silver is 133%. The Gold Update points to price's 3rd attempt to take The Northern Front (1750-1800) and thus far today 'tis reached the halfway mark at 1775; meanwhile Silver's comparative strength has driven the Gold/Silver ratio back below 100x (99.8x) for the first time since 12 Mar. May's NAHB Housing Index is today's Econ Baro metric.
15 May '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower whilst the safe havens are higher. Firmest is Silver +2.7%, (Gold however is but +0.2%, knocking the Gold/Silver ratio down to 104.7x, still excessively high historically), and weakest is the Spoo -0.9%; volatility runs the gamut from light for the Swiss Franc's 34% EDTR tracing to robust for that of Silver's 109% EDTR tracing. With a week to run in Q1 Earnings Season, 44% at large (and 47% for the S&P 500) have improved their year-over-year quarterly bottom lines. 'Tis a busy session for the Econ Baro with May's Empire State Index and UofM Sentiment Survey, Apr's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with Mar's Business Inventories.
14 May '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, but only mildly so, the weakest being Copper -0.7%; firmest is Oil +3.5% followed by the Bond +0.7%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. At Market Values, the Spoo has essentially returned to its smooth valuation line. So far this week despite the selling in the S&P, its Moneyflow has not been as weak as the Index itself; indeed the same can be said for the past month, however not so for the past quarter (all per the Moneyflow page). The Econ Baro awaits another 2M-3M in weekly first time Jobless Claims, plus Apr's Ex/Im pricing.
13 May '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black with Oil +1.9% leading the pack, followed by Copper +1.2% and then the Spoo +1.0%; volatility is light-to-moderate with a Chair Powell address and Q&A slated for 06:00 Pacific Time. The WSJ is a running piece on the reduction in market volatility, which has already been herein highlighted for many weeks per the Market Ranges page and narrowing EDTRs. Yesterday's Spoo drop essentially halved its "high" extreme per the Market Values page: 'tis now (in real-time) 109 points above the smooth valuation line. Apr's PPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 May '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher with Oil +3.5% followed by Gold +0.4%; weakest is Copper -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Oil, Copper and the Spoo are by their respective linreg measures rising, the balance of the other 5 components by same falling, albeit Silver's "Baby Blues" have begun to accelerate back up. At Market Values, the Spoo is still "high", at present by 208 points, its "live" up to 39.2x as earnings deteriorate. Meanwhile at Market Magnets there are no excessive deviations whatsoever. Apr's CPI and Treasury Budget all arrive for the Econ Baro.
11 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are starting the week in the red, Oil -2.2% being the weakest followed by Copper -1.4% and then Silver -0.9%; volatility ranges from light for Oil's 34% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper's 104% EDTR tracing, albeit such measures are narrowing per the Market Ranges page. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's near-term trend as having rotated to negative, the 21-day linreg study having so done last Wednesday. With another week or so to run in Q1 Earnings Season, 407 constituents of the S&P 500 have reported, 47% bettering their bottom lines; Q2 may, of course, fare worse. The Econ Baro is quiet today ahead of a back-loaded busy week.
08 May '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Ahead of Apr's expectedly worst Payrolls report of our lifetimes, all 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Oil +1.6% down through the Euro +0.1%; volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Values, the Spoo still reads as quite "high", at present 259 points above its smooth valuation line; Gold is 52 points above its like measure; the 3 other primary BEGOS components are (per our 06 May note) are now pretty much in line with their like valuations. At Market Rhythms, 57 measures qualify for the list. Despite Gold's robust turnaround yesterday, at Market Trends the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" continue their fall, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to negative. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Mar's Wholesale Inventories report.
07 May '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and EuroCurrencies are in the red, and just barely, the balance of the BEGOS Markets on the upside with Oil +6.6%, Copper +1.5%, the Spoo +1.3% and Silver +1.2%; volatility is again moderate. Oil's cac volume for Jul has finally moved (albeit earlier than is the norm per our 29 Apr note) ahead of that for Jun. EDTRs per the Market Ranges page continue to narrow: they're still skewed above the norm, but save for Oil, they're returning to near what were considered upper areas of their respective ranges. The Econ Baro awaits another massive Jobless Claims number as well as the first report of Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus Mar's Consumer Credit.
06 May '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Silver +1.0% is the BEGOS Markets' upside leader whilst weakest are Gold, the Bond, and the Euro, each -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" are in ascent for the Bond and Oil, those for the 6 components all tracking lower. At Market Values, prices are nearing realignment with their respective valuation lines: of note, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 293 points "high", still by Market Profiles, the Spoo appears supportive from 2873-2856 whilst Gold's most dominant resistor is 1713. Looking to the Econ Baro, the ADP Employment report expectedly anticipates job losses exceeding 20M.
05 May '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: After its weak start to the week before recovering yesterday, Oil +6.5% is the session's leader, followed by the Spoo +1.0%; the EuroCurrencies are the BEGOS Markets most in the red, the Euro itself -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust as those currencies trace in excess of 100% of their EDTRs, Germany's constitutional court questioning the "proportionality" of the ECB's bond purchasing program. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are crossing below their 0% axis lines as prices' 21-day linreg trends rotate toward negative. Apr's ISM(Svc) Index and Mar's Trade Deficit are due for the Econ Baro.
04 May '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil -4.3% begins the week as the BEGOS Markets' weakest link, followed by the Spoo -0.8% and then Copper -0.7%; firmest are the Bond and Gold, both +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update cites price having again failed to take The Northern Front (1750-1800), indeed falling last week to as low as 1676, price at present back up to 1714; yet by Market Values, price appears (in real-time) some 87 points "high", the like measure for the Spoo finding it 241 points "high"; both readings however are less extreme than they've been in the past several weeks; still for both components, their "Baby Blues" are in decline per the Market Trends page. The Econ Baro begins another busy week with Mar's Factory Orders.
01 May '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.4% and EuroCurrencies (both +0.3%) are in the black for the BEGOS Markets, the downside leader being Copper -2.2% followed by Oil -1.8% and then the Spoo -1.3%; volatility is moderate in the context of the EDTRs continuing to drop per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (after having fallen below their +80% axis back on 23 April only to then nonetheless see price rise) have today further moved lower; even with price's drop both yesterday and today, the Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) 306 points "high". Gold's overhead resistance continues defeating price, which is now back sub-1700 as we'll review in tomorrow's Gold Update. Due for the Econ Baro is Apr's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, along with Mar's Construction Spending. Most Euro and Asian bourses are closed for the 01 May holiday.
30 Apr '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil +14.1% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver +0.9% and then the Swiss Franc +0.2%; weakest is the Spoo -0.9%; volatility is moderate. The S&P in trading 2935 yesterday achieved the "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 23 Mar low (2192) back up toward the 19 Feb all-time high (3394). By the Market Values page, the Spoo is (in real-time) 407 points "high"; by Market Profiles, volume trading supports are at 2905, 2867, and 2856. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, incoming metrics including another dire Jobless Claims report, Apr's Chi PMI, Mar's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Inflation, plus Q1's Employment Cost Index.
29 Apr '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: The only BEGOS Market in the red at present is Gold -0.3%; to the upside is Oil +7.1%: still, concerns over Jun Oil staying above water sees some traders moving earlier than usual into the Jul cac as brokers place clients' Jun positions into liquidation, (cac vol still dominant in the Jun cac). Cac volumes on both Silver and Copper have rolled from May into Jul. The Spoo is +1.1%, however the S&P's Moneyflow has been unsupportive of the Index both days this week. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. On deck for the Econ Baro are the 1st read on Q1 GDP and Mar's Pending Home Sales. Then we've the FOMC's Policy Statement along with Powell's presser.
28 Apr '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' weak links are Oil -9.9% followed by the PMs with Silver -0.9% and then Gold -0.1%; firmest is the Spoo, +1.1% and back above 2900 for the 1st time since 09 March; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are steadying after dropping below the key +80% level last Thu; for the S&P itself, 2935 (+61.8%) would mark the "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 23 Mar low (2192) back up toward the 19 Feb all-time high (3394). Session volatility ranges from light for the Bond with just a 30% EDTR tracing to robust for the Swiss Franc's 103% EDTR tracing. Apr's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
27 Apr '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo +0.8% and the Euro +0.2% are higher to begin the new week for the BEGOS Markets; weakest (not surprisingly in large % swings) is Oil -17.7% at 14.14, followed by Gold -0.7% and then Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update continues to cite price's being repelled resistance in the battles for The Northern Front (1750-1800), Gold at present 1734. A busy week ensues for the Econ Baro with 14 metrics due, plus the FOMC and Powell presser come Wed; busy too is Q1 Earnings Season, the weakest thus far since Q2 of 2009.
24 Apr '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.2% and Silver +0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the weakest being Oil -0.7% followed by Copper -0.5%; volatility is mostly light with only the Bond and Swiss Franc having exceeding EDTR tracings of 50%. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends confirmed moving below the +80% axis: that portending lower levels, we see structural Spoo support around the 2635 area; again by Market Values, the Spoo remains very "high" by (in real-time) some 282 points. The Econ Baro completes its week of just 5 data inputs with Apr's revised UofM Sentiment Survey and Mar's Durable Orders.
23 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: With another multi-million Jobless Claims report in the imminent wings, we've a mixed picture for the BEGOS Markets, led to the upside by Oil +9.6%, Silver +2.1%, and Gold +1.1%; weaker are the EuroCurrencies, both the Euro itself and Swiss Franc -0.4%; volatility is moderate. By Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" confirmed slipping below their +80% axis yesterday, whilst same is provisionally the case today for the Spoo, suggesting lower levels ahead for both components. The Spoo by Market Values is (in real-time) 298 points above its smooth valuation line. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Mar's New Home Sales.
22 Apr '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: With Oil as low (11.57) as 'tis, a move of one full point is essentially a 10% change, i.e. -11.8% at present; only the Bond -0.2 is also lower. Firmest of the BEGOS Markets is the Spoo +1.2% followed by Gold +1.1%; ever-lagging is Silver +0.4%, the Gold/Silver ratio at 114.6x; at Market Values, Gold shows as some 183 points "high". Session volatility is light-to-moderate as EDTRs, whilst still above normal, are continuing to narrow per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, whilst 6 of the 8 components are in linreg uptrends, the "Baby Blues" are falling for the all but those of the Bond (up a kink in real-time despite the mild price slip).
21 Apr '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: As worthless May Oil rolls off the trading rolls, swiftly following (at least for the present) is Jun Oil, -21.1% at 16.74 and clearly the weakest component of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Copper -4.4%, Silver -3.4%, the Spoo -1.6% and Gold -1.5%; the Bond +0.5% is the firmest of the bunch; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and Silver exceeding 100% of their EDTRs ... along with Oil's 368% tracing. Per Market Trends and as depicted in The Gold Update, the PMs "Baby Blues" have slipped below their respective +80% axes, suggestive of lower still prices, (our penned notion being the mid-1600s for Gold and the mid-14s for Silver). Mar's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Apr '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets components are in the red to start the week, led by Oil -9.3%, the Spoo -1.4%, and Copper -0.4%; the Bond and the PMs are only marginally higher; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to the otherwise little-cited overhead resistance having won last week's battles at the Northern Front (1750-1800), price dropping 97 points from high-to-low to find itself again sub-1700 (1694 at present). As far undervalued as is Gold fundamentally, it still remains "high" per the Market Values page by (in real-time) some 158 points. As the week unfolds, just 5 metrics are due for the Econ Baro. Q1 Earnings Season early on is expectedly looking dismal.
17 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +1.6% and Copper +1.3%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by what were the upside leaders at this time yesterday, Silver now -2.7% and Gold -1.6%. Oil on outgoing May cac trading has into the 18 handle, (an 18-year low), however volume has moved into the Jun cac which at present is 25.92, -0.4%; session volatility is moderate. The Market Rhythms page continues to be rife with studies, some 53 presently qualifying for the list. The Econ Baro closes out its expectedly poor week with Mar's Leading Indicators.
16 Apr '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: Mixed again are the BEGOS Markets with the PMs strongest of the bunch, both Gold and Silver +1.1%, followed by the Spoo +0.7%; the Bond is "unch" and the EuroCurrencies mildly weaker; volatility is mostly light within the context that per the Market Ranges page, EDTRs continue their plunge. At Market Trends, only the Bond's 21-day linreg trend is negative. 'Tis ever so early on in Q1 Earnings Season, but of the 14 S&P 500 components having thus far reported, only 1 has bettered its bottom line from the like quarter of a year ago. Due for the Econ Baro are another vast round of Jobless Claims, plus Apr's Philly Fed Index and Mar's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.9%, 'tis a sea of red for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Oil -5.6% (at 19.64), the Spoo -1.8%, Copper -1.7% and Silver -1.6%; volatility is moderate. Extreme distances from valuations (lower for Oil and higher for the other 4 primary components) remain de rigueur at the Market Values page; however by the faster Market Magnets, only Gold and the Spoo appear excessively "high". The Gold/Silver ratio remains 'round all-time highs at 111.1x and the "live" P/E for the S&P 500 is 36.4x. 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro which receives Apr's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index, Mar's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Feb's Business Inventories.
14 Apr '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: We've another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Oil -1.6% and the firmest being Silver +1.5%, followed by the Spoo +1.0%; volatility in recent context is mostly light, again with reference to the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) kinking lower whilst those for the balance of the 7 other components continue to climb. At Market Values, distances above their respective smooth valuation lines remain "high" for all but Oil amongst the 5 primary components. The Econ Baro awaits Mar's Ex/Im Pricing.
13 Apr '20, 04:14 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets: to the upside we've Copper +3.1% and to the downside Silver -1.4%, followed by the Spoo -1.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate with Market Ranges still well above "normal" but nonetheless plummeting. The Gold Update graphically depicts price's overhead resistance battles as it stands on the threshold of "hyperdrive" should history from 2011 repeat itself. The missive also points to Gold's ongoing long-term undervaluation relative to currency debasement, but as well to its short-term overvaluation vis-à-vis the Market Values page. Euro-bourses are closed as the weekend holiday continues.
10 Apr '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The abbreviated trading week ends with Gold's highest weekly close (1741) in better than 7 years, the +5.6% gain ranking 12th-best since at least 2000. For the S&P 500 (as measured by the gain in the Spoo), the week's +11.0% increase ranks 2nd-best per the same time frame. For the S&P itself (2790) a key level for which to watch is 2947, the "Golden Ratio" retracement point from the low (2192) which followed the high (3394). Despite today's markets' closures, due for the Econ Baro is Mar's PPI and the Treasury Budget. Q1 Earnings Season completes its first week.
09 Apr '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets in the final session for this week are mostly higher, led by Oil +4.7% and then the PMs, with Silver +2.0% and Gold +1.5%; Gold is attempting to finish the trading week above 1700 for the first time since that ending 07 December 2012; only Copper -0.8% and the Spoo -0.1% are lower; volatility is mostly light as Market Ranges continue to plunge. Nonetheless, we've 50 signals at present qualifying for listing on the Market Rhythms page; (typically under "normal" conditions, that list numbers in the teens-to-20s). Today the Econ Baro gets another large belt of Jobless Claims, along with Apr's UofM Sentiment Survey, Mar's PPI, and Feb's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Apr '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, no one component at present with a net change of 1% or more in either direction; the economically-driven elements are to the upside and the Bond and EuroCurrencies are to the downside; volatility, too, is light with no one component sporting an EDTR tracing in excess of 50%: again, EDTRs are steeply dropping per the Market Ranges page. At Market Magnets, prices are comparatively near their magnets, however by the broader Market Values page, (in real-time) the Bond shows as 20 points "high", the Euro as .0800 points "high", Gold as 219 points "high", Oil as 10 points "low", and the S&P as 106 points "high". And at Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" irrespective of trend itself are in ascent across the board.
07 Apr '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: The S&P 500's +7.0% rise yesterday ranks as its 7th best since as far back as at least 1980; the Spoo in this session +3.2% ought bring the S&P back above 2700 for the 1st time since 13 Mar. Copper +3.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are in the black save for the Bond -1.1%; Gold finally settled above 1700 for the 1st time this year, "everything being up" having the ring of monetary accommodation inflation. Session volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 26% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 104% EDTR tracing; again, mind the Market Ranges page. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Feb's Consumer Credit. Q1 Earnings Season is underway.
06 Apr '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo +3.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver +1.6%, Copper +1.2% and Gold +0.9%; weakest is Oil -5.6%, and the balance of the bunch are mildly lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as coming off an essentially "unch" week (accounting for the premium in the Jun cac) -- despite all the monetary accommodation -- whilst the S&P's declining volatility and lack of negative moneyflow can be construed as fear somewhat abating. At the Market Values page, the Spoo (in real-time) after having been as shown as much as 800 points "low" has all but returned up to its declining valuation line; that for Gold (presently 1623), however, shows price as 222 points "high"; bear in mind, too, Gold's resistance above 1700.
03 Apr '20, 04:12 Pacific Time: The expected reduction in Payrolls data for Mar (given a 08-14 Mar survey period) shan't be representative of the wholesale StateSide economic shutdown, the Apr data in a month's time to be magnitudes worse. Ahead of the data, save for Oil +7.4%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are marginally in the red, none at present by even -1.0%; volatility (except for Oil's 97% EDTR tracing) is light, albeit Market Ranges remain high even as they drop. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have joined those for the Spoo and Copper in crossing above the -80% level, suggesting further price recovery ahead. Also due for the Econ Baro is the ISM(Svc) reading for Mar.
02 Apr '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil +5.0% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver +2.0% and then the Spoo +1.1%; weakest is the Euro -0.5%; volatility is mostly light given from where EDTRs have been, the Market Ranges page showing them still excessive, but noticeably contracting. Still, the overall level of studies qualifying for the Markets Rhythm page is plentiful, the list presently populated by 44 analyses. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are working higher, plus those for Copper have (in real-time) curled up above their -80% level suggestive of higher prices: the red metal presently 2.19 in a resistive area, higher structural resistance comes 'round the 2.50s. For the Econ Baro, another large Jobless Claims number is due as well as Feb's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Apr '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The Spoo -3.3% is the BEGOS Markets' downside leader followed by Copper -2.3%; however, +2.3% is Oil, followed by the Bond +0.9% and then Gold +0.8%; volatility is mostly moderate given EDTRs continue to narrow, but again within the context of their being near extreme levels per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, even including today's real-time move lower by the Spoo, its "Baby Blues" continue their climb; by Market Values, the Spoo which had shown as much as 800 points "low" is still (in real-time) 215 points "low". The first sign of the virus jobs hit ought be seen in Mar's ADP data, other metrics also due for the Econ Baro including the month's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, along with Feb's Construction Spending.
31 Mar '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil +6.1% is this session's big whirl 'round component of the BEGOS Markets, with both Copper and the Bond also sporting marginal gains; weakest is Gold -2.0% followed by the EuroCurrencies both down about -1.0%, and then Silver -0.7%; again volatility is comparatively light-to-moderate as EDTRs per the Market Ranges page are narrowing: whilst still far above normal, the suggestion is that fear is seeping out of the markets. At Market Magnets, save for the Spoo which appears "high", the other 7 of the bunch see the Magnets drawing back their respective prices; yet more broadly per Market Values, deviations remain extreme. The Chi PMI and Consumer Confidence for Mar come into the Econ Baro.
30 Mar '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil clearly the weakest -6.8% and having briefly dipped sub-20; 2nd weakest is Silver -3.0%; the remainder are in the red by fractional %s. Volatility is light-to-moderate, albeit still vast compared to the norm: at Market Ranges, EDTRs are notably topping. The Gold Update emphasizes the yellow metal having made a 4th material run in the past 5 weeks to clear 1700 only to again be foiled: indeed only one trading day has closed above our call for 1675 as the year's high; but clearly we're all surprised that Gold hasn't moved well up beyond that level given the massive global monetary and fiscal stimuli. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with Feb's Pending Home Sales.
27 Mar '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: Narrowing Market Ranges continue to work their way into the BEGOS Markets, obviously within the context of still quite extreme EDTRs: still at this point of the session, only one component -- the Euro -- has an EDTR tracing exceeding 50% (at 51%), whilst Oil is narrowest at just 26%. By change, the bunch are basically mixed: down the most is Oil, -2.6% followed by the Spoo -2.4%; up the most is the Bond +0.9% followed by Silver +0.8%. At Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) ascending up through their -80% suggestive of still higher levels ahead: presently 2556, the Spoo encounters structural resistance beginning up at 2695. Gold's cac volume is moving from Apr into Jun. The Baro receives the revised UofM Sentiment read for Mar, along with Feb's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE Index.
26 Mar '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, we detect a narrowing in EDTR tracings, today across the entire BEGOS Markets spectrum, the rangiest being the Euro with just a 52% tracing; least rangy is Oil at 30%; it is also the weakest of the bunch, -2.2%, followed by Copper -1.3% and then the Spoo -1.1%; firmest is the Bond, +0.8%. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl up from their floor, as notably are those for Silver, with Oil appearing near to so doing. Obviously Jobless Claims shall begin to get much attention overing these ensuing weeks, the Econ Baro also today getting the final read on Q4's GDP.
25 Mar '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is notably less rangy than has been the case for many-a-night to this point: no one component's EDTR tracings have exceeded 100%, the rangiest being that for Gold of 86%; further, 4 of the 8 components have tracings of less than 50%; thus volatility is light-to-moderate within the context of the recent extreme ranginess. Weakest is Oil -3.1%, followed by Copper -2.1% and then Gold -1.5%; firmest is Silver +0.5%; the Gold/Silver ratio (which had been above 120x) is 113.9x. Mon and Tue saw a record high rise points-wise from low-to-high for Gold of +213 points; ('twas on a % basis the 7th largest such rise -- +19.0% -- since the nixing of the Gold Standard). The Senate has passed the "rescue package". The Econ Baro awaits Feb's Durable Orders.
24 Mar '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: Whirlin' 'round finds the Spoo locked "limit up", +5.2% from its GLOBEX settle; indeed nary a BEGOS Markets components is in the red, (the Bond is "unch"), with the PMs leading the way: Gold is +7.7% and Silver +6.3%; volatility in the context of these vastly widened EDTRs runs from light (the Bond and Oil with tracings of just 27% and 32% respectively) to robust, led by Gold with a 208% tracing. Gold, which as noted yesterday had been in line with its Market Values level, is now in real-time 185 points" high"; extreme reading as well exist as follows for the other 4 primary components: the Bond is 26 points "high", the Euro nearly 0.08 points "high" (i.e "ought be" near to parity with the Dollar by this measure), Oil 21 points "low" and the Spoo (even limit up) as 652 points low. Feb's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Mar '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: Twice this session has the Spoo found itself locked "limit down", before having moved well off the low (2174) to presently be 2234, -1.5%; Oil at one one was -12.0% to 20.80 before recovering now to 22.14, -6.3%; Copper is -3.5%. The only BEGOS Markets gainer is the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate with just the red metal having traded in excess of 100% of its EDTR, which by the Market Ranges page obviously remain at extreme readings. Per the Market Values page, only Gold is aligned with its smooth valuation line, the other 4 primary components well-skewed from same. The Gold Update points to price's "support swath" (1490-1466) as having held to this juncture within the context of the young weekly parabolic Short trend. The U.S. Senate has yet to agree on a "rescue package".
20 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets components are in the black led by further large gains for Oil +6.4%, followed by Silver +5.8% and then the Spoo +4.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Silver and Copper exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Should this be the beginning of a material upside moves, watch the Market Trends page's "Baby Blues" for up-curls for both Oil and the Spoo; by their respective Market Values page readings, Oil is (in real-time) 21 points "low" and the Spoo 624 points "low". Thus far this session, the Spoo has traded right up to its Market Profiles page resistor at 2498 (2499 the actual high). Feb's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
19 Mar '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: At present by net changes, the weakest BEGOS Market is Copper -2.6% whist the firmest is Oil +1.6%; but that doesn't preclude there having been excessive ranginess during the session with robust EDTR tracings by Copper of 233% and both EuroCurrencies beyond 100%, the ECB having declared a €750 billion debt-purchase program. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate within the overall guise of extremely expanded EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. The ramped-up volatility is also expanding the list of qualifying studies (now numbering 46) on the Market Rhythms page. For the Econ Baro we've Mar's Philly Fed Index and Q4's Current Account Balance.
18 Mar '20, 04:27 Pacific Time: In true Black Swan form, all 8 BEGOS Market components are in the red, Oil -5.3% being the weakest, followed by Copper -4.4% and then the Spoo as locked "limit down" (-3.3% in measuring from the GLOBEX settle); volatility given the vast EDTRs is moderate with just Copper and the Bond exceeding 100% of their EDTRs. Going 'round the Market Values horn for the 5 primary components, per their respective valuation lines, in real-time the Bond is 14 points "high", the Euro is .0550 points "high", Gold is 30 points "low" (its 1490-1466 "support swath" having essentially held), Oil is 24 points "low" and the Spoo is 763 points "low". Feb's Housing Starts/Permits arrive for the Econ Baro. Oil's cac vol is moving from Apr into May.
17 Mar '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Gold/Silver ratio at present is 120.8x, well above anything recorded perhaps in centuries. Silver -5.8% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold -2.9%; only Oil +2.4% and the Spoo +2.0% (which had been locked "limit up" +5.0% for some 90 minutes earlier in the session before actually dipping into the red for a bit) are in the black; volatility -- again within the context of the vastly expanded EDTRs -- is moderate-to-robust, the rangiest of the bunch being the Euro with a 130% tracing and Oil with but a 45% tracing. 39 studies currently populate the Market Rhythms page. Due for the Econ Baro are Mar's NAHB Housing Index, Feb's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, along with Jan's Business Inventories. The FOMC begins its scheduled 2-day meeting; (said meeting was cancelled; there've been the two recent pro-active rate cuts and follow-up discussions).
16 Mar '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: A brutal start to the week for the BEGOS Markets unless one is the Bond +2.1% or EuroCurrencies: following the Fed's unprecedented Sunday 1.00% rate cute we find Silver -13.9%, Oil -9.7%, the Spoo locked "limit down" -5.0% and Copper -4.8%; volatility is mostly robust with only the Bond and Spoo not exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. The Gold Update cites five reasons for Gold's fallout, plus a technical fact that the weekly parabolic trend has flipped to Short: price presently at 1479, we've a "support swath" covering 1490-1466, (the session's low thus far 1465). Upon resumption in the Spoo's trading, watch for its cac vol moving from Mar into Jun. The Econ Baro looks to a notably reduced NY Empire State Index reading for Mar.
13 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: We've Friday firming for the BEGOS Markets with Oil +7.0% leading the pack followed by the Spoo +5.9%; the CME just imposed the +5.0% overnight trading halt as measured from their close (vs. the GLOBEX close which we use). Weakest is the Bond -1.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with the Bond, Spoo and Copper all exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. Per the Market Values page, the Bond is 18 points "high", the Euro 0.04 points "high", Oil 18 points "low" and the Spoo 656 points (including today's pop) "low". Gold is nearly at its smooth valuation line. EuroCurrencies' cac vol is rolling from Mar into Jun. An important Econ Baro data point due is Mar's UofM Sentiment (101 in Feb, 95 expected for Mar, 20-yr. average 87); due, too, is Feb's Ex/Im Pricing.
12 Mar '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil -6.6% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets followed by the Spoo -4.6%, (itself reaching the limit down -5% level); firmest is the Bond +2.4%; of note, Gold +0.2% has not received any material safe-haven bid after having (for the 3rd straight week ) tried to move above our 1675 forecast high for this year into the 1700s only to be sold back down, the present level being 1638. Session volatility is moderate -- again in the context of the expanded EDTRs per the Market Ranges page -- with only the Bond and Spoo exceeding 100% tracings. The ECB's turn for stimulus is on deck, and due for the Econ Baro today is Feb's PPI.
11 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Onto whirl-back-down Wednesday we go, highlighted by the BoE making an unscheduled 50bp rate cut; still we're seeing the reverse of yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' safe havens getting the bid with both the Bond and Silver +1.2%; weakest of the economically-driven components are Oil -4.2% followed by the Spoo -2.5%; volatility in the context of the vastly expanded EDTRs (see Market Ranges) is mostly moderate with only Oil having traced beyond 100% of its EDTR. Indeed, expanded volatility has enhanced the number of studies qualifying for the Market Rhythms page, with 32 on the list at present. Coming into the Econ Baro are Feb's CPI and Treasury Budget.
10 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Turnaround Tuesday finds gains in the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components and drains for those which are safe-havens. Recovering the most is Oil +12.6% (yesterday -27.3%) followed by the Spoo +4.9% (yesterday -8.4%); weakest is the Bond -1.9% followed by Gold -1.1%; volatility is mostly robust with the context that by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs are obviously well above their average levels of the past 12 months. Mind both the Market Values and Market Magnets pages for potential reversal indications from their respective extreme readings.
09 Mar '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil on the breakdown of OPEC+ brings a price war, opening down some -30%; at present 'tis -23.4% @ 31.84; the Spoo is locked "limit down" the standardized -5.0% level @ 2819; Gold did top 1700 to 1704 before yet again, as has been it wont, dropping to 1658; at present 'tis 1680; The Gold Update graphically details Gold's overhead structural congestion. The Bond +5.6% has driven the 30-year yield sub-1%. The EuroCurrencies, too, are the gainers, (as is the Yen +3.0%). Per our Earnings Page, for 1,986 Q4 reports, 56% improved over the like period of a year earlier (bettering the 52% for Q3), and specific to the S&P 500, 66% (vs. 62% for Q3).
06 Mar '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: Our Market Ranges page is worth a prudent glance as it reflects the volatility across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum. Indeed for the current session, 5 of the 8 components have well exceeded 100% EDTR tracings, the most being that by the Bond of 246%. The weakest of the bunch are Oil -4.5% followed by the Spoo -2.5%; firmest is the Bond +2.1% followed by the Swiss Franc +1.0%; Gold +0.9% has retested the year's high at 1691; still, Silver +0.2% is not keeping pace, the G/S ratio at 96.6x. Almost lost in it all, the Econ Baro looks to Feb's Payrolls data, plus Jan's Trade Deficit, Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit; and we put the wrap on Q4 Earnings Season.
05 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Compared to recent days -- and mind the Market Ranges page -- volatility this session (thus far) is modestly moderate with no one component of the BEGOS Markets exceeding a 100% EDTR tracing, notably Silver having just a 21% tracing following by Copper at 34%. Weakest by price change is Oil -1.7% and firmest is the Bond +1.0%. Pricing extremes from Market Values nonetheless remain near those stated yesterday, albeit the "faster" Market Magnet excesses are beginning to recoil. Coming into the Econ Baro today are Jan's Factory Orders and the revisions to Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
04 Mar '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: With only the Euro -0.2% in the red, the Spoo +2.2% is the BEGOS Markets' strong upside leader; volatility is again a bit reduced, Copper having traced just 39% of its EDTR and Silver only 42% of same; the Swiss Franc, (at present "unch") is the session's largest EDTR tracer at 111%. Per the Market Values page, extremes remain, the Bond on the heels of the unscheduled 50bp FedFunds cut some 13 points "high", the Euro 2 points "high", Gold 87 points "high", Oil 5 points "low" and the Spoo 210 points "low" even inclusive of its firm stance in this session. The Econ Baro awaits Feb's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Mar '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for Copper -0.8% and the Euro -0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, led by Oil +1.4%, Gold +0.8%, and Silver +0.5%; (the Spoo, +7 points from its GLOBEX settle, need be up some 18 points for the S&P to not open lower). Session volatility has slowed to moderate. At Market Trends, "Baby Blues" are in ascent for only the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. At Market Magnets, the 2 EuroCurrencies are at high extremes and the 2 PMs at low extremes. And at Market Values, vis-à-vis their respective smooth valuation lines, the Bond is 10 points "high", the Euro 2 points "high", Gold 50 points "high", Oil 5 points "low" and the Spoo 200 points "low". The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Vehicle Sales.
02 Mar '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility remains robust for all 8 components, the rangiest being Copper (+0.8%) having traced 217% of its EDTR; least rangy is Gold (+1.1% and the firmest of the bunch) with a 123% EDTR tracing; the only two components in the red at present are Oil -0.4% and the Spoo -2.2%: because of the latter's +28-point move after stocks closed on Fri, adding that amount to the present change (-64 points) yields an idea of how the S&P itself may change at the open. The Gold Update graphically describes why price peaked (to this point) essentially at our 1675 forecast. Feb's ISM (Mfg) Index and Jan's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro. We're extending the collection of Q4 Earnings Season data for an additional week as a good bevy have yet to be reported.
28 Feb '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility ratchets up to robust across the entire BEGOS Markets spectrum, the rangiest and weakest component being Silver which is -3.2% and which has traced 222% of its EDTR; the Gold/Silver ratio is 94.8x, essentially a modern-day high, (and the PMs this week not holding their safe haven bid). 2nd weakest is Oil -1.4%; firmest is the Bond +0.9%. The overnight trading range of the Spoo is 101 points, price at present (2926, -0.8%) just below the middle of that range. The Euro has already met the upside expectation (1.1024) noted yesterday. Last Fri, the VIX settled at 17.08: in this session 'tis been as high as 47.15. The Econ Baro awaits Feb's Chi PMI, plus Jan's Personal Income/Spending and Fed inflation-favoured Core PCE Index.
27 Feb '20, 04:17 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower led by Oil -2.1%, then the Spoo -0.5%, and Copper -0.4%; firmest is Silver +0.7% followed by the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc and the Euro itself both +0.6%; volatility remains moderate-to-robust, again with the context of expanding EDTRs. The Market Rhythms page currently lists 24 qualifying studies worthy of tracking. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" climbed out above their -80% axis such that we're seeking a run up toward the 1.1024 level (presently 1.0958). Jan's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro, along with the 2nd peek at Q4's GDP.
26 Feb '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' PMs and EuroCurrencies are to the upside, led by Gold +0.6%, plus Silver and the Swiss Franc both +0.2%; weakest is Oil -1.8% followed by Copper -0.6%; the Spoo has been oscillating across both sides of the fence; volatility continues as moderate-to-robust within the context that EDTRs (see Market Ranges) are expanding, notably for the Spoo, Gold and the Euro. The Gold/Silver ratio is 91.2x, essentially near an all-time high. Cac volume for both Silver and Copper is moving from Mar into May. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's New Home Sales.
25 Feb '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Following Gold reaching our 1675 forecast year's high, indeed trading up to 1691, price then spent much of yesterday's session oscillating 'round 1675 before fading lower; at present 'tis 1650, -0.7%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets. Firmest is Copper, +0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. On balance, the whole bunch are steadying after yesterday's big moves. At Market Values, the Spoo has finally returned down to its smooth valuation line, however Gold is running some 100 points "high": again, mind that page as well as that for Market Magnets. Feb's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
24 Feb '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets continue their coronavirus concerns with Oil -3.9%, the Spoo -2.2%, and Gold +2.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with 4 of the 8 components having traced beyond 100% of their EDTRs. Gold has exceeded our forecast high for this year of 1675 by trading up to 1691: The Gold Update graphically depicts the 1650-1700 zone as structurally replete with hem and haw from late 2011 into early 2013. Mind valuation and pricing extremes per the Market Values and Market Magnets pages. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) just broken their recent up-streak. This is the final week of Q4 Earnings Season.
21 Feb '20, 04:11 Pacific Time: Volatility is a bit more pent up for the BEGOS Markets, coronavirus measuring methodologies again changing: in trading 109% of its EDTR, Gold has nearly touched 1640, our forecast high for this year being 1675; as components' leaders, both Gold and Silver are +0.9%, their ratio at 88.5x. Oil is weakest, -1.6%. At Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 95 points "high"; we're mindful that the Dollar is putting in a relatively strong performance this year such that as coronavirus issues fade, Gold is subject to correcting significantly. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Existing Home Sales.
20 Feb '20, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' safe haven components are getting a mild bid with the Bond and Gold both +0.3%; to the downside, Copper -0.5% is weakest followed by Silver -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The PMs by their Market Magnets (per yesterday's close) appear "high" with Gold by +35 points and Silver by +0.62 points; by Market Values, the yellow metal itself is (in real-time) some 81 points "high"; the Spoo too remains now 145 points "high" even given this session's -0.2% pullback. The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Philly Fed Index and Jan's Leading Indicators.
19 Feb '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil +1.3% is the BEGOS Markets' leader, followed by the PMs with Silver +0.9% and Gold +0.5%; only the Swiss Franc and Copper are in the red, both just -0.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, although the Spoo has traced just 29% of its EDTR. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to climbout for both Oil and Copper, whilst same for the Bond continue to fall. At Market Values, we've "high" extremes for the Bond (by +6 points), Gold (by +76 points), and the Spoo (by +146 points); on the "low" side we've the Euro (by -0.02 points) and Oil (by -4 points). Jan reports coming into the Econ Baro today are for the PPI and Housing Start/Permits. The FOMC's 28-29 Jan Meeting Minutes are released.
18 Feb '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: A negative turnaround in the two-day session for the Spoo -0.5% as the coronavirus issue shall materially impact revenues from the likes of AAPL; Oil -2.1% is weakest of the components whilst firmest is Silver +0.7% followed by the Bond +0.5%; combined sessions' volatility is moderate with only the Bond exceeding 100% of its EDTR. The EuroCurrencies continue their skidding, the Euro itself down to its lower level (1.0838) since late Mar '17. Gold (1591, just +4 points since Fri) remains rather muted despite the selling in the economically-driven BEGOS components. Due for the Econ Baro are Feb's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB Housing Index.
17 Feb '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: In accounting for the StateSide holiday we've a two-day session in play for the BEGOS Markets' start to the week; the firmest component is Copper +0.9% and the weakest is Oil -0.4%; volatility is light. The Gold Update cites price as being firm, yet lacking puff, the 1570s being a broad line-in-the-sand for sustaining the present rally (near term), the larger picture still targeting 1675 for this year. As well, the valuation of the S&P 500 remains at high extremes (our "live" P/E at 40.5x), but with recent moneyflow supporting the strong push into stocks. Oil's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) have climbed out above their -80% axis, however with price now in the 52s, the path to the 54s can be structurally resistive; cac volume is moving from Mar into Apr.
14 Feb '20, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag ahead of a bevy of incoming EconData with 8 reports hitting the Econ Baro as the session unfolds, including Feb's UofM Sentiment Survey, Jan's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Dec's Business Inventories. Oil +1.2% is firmest whilst Copper -0.6% is weakest; volatility is mostly light with the data barrage in the balance. At present, 21 technical studies qualify for the list on the Market Rhythms page, including Gold's 12-hr. Parabolics which in just having flipped to Long from an entry of 1579 point to a MRT of 1590: however, warily contra to this are the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" which have resumed falling at Market Trends.
13 Feb '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Out of the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components and into the safe havens as implementing a techier detection method for coronavirus infection has purportedly ramped up the number of cases. Oil is -1.2% followed by the Spoo -0.6% and Copper -0.4%; Silver is +0.9% followed by Gold +0.5% and the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate, (one might have expected robust). Still, given the on-balance push of primary BEGOS' entities, our Market Values page shows the Bond as some 5 points "high", Gold some 50 points "high", Oil some 7 points lows, and the Spoo some 130 points "high". Jan's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Feb '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets' components continue their rally with Oil +1.5%, Copper +0.9% and the Spoo +0.3%; weakest of the group is Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Copper's "Baby Blues" by the Market Trends page have curled up above their -80% axis such that price can make the run from the 2.60s to the 2.80s, (key level to first clear being 2.6225, present price is 2.6060); the red metal's 10-day Market Profile indicates trading support at both 2.58 and 2.56. Mind the soaring Spoo as per the Market Values page, price is (in real-time) nearly 150 points above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Treasury Budget; and Chair Powell completes his two-days of Congressional testimony, the Senate Banking Committee being on tap today.
11 Feb '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The session's bidding goes to the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components with Oil +1.6%, Copper +0.8% and the Spoo moving further into record-high territory +0.2%; the PMs are the weak links, but only marginally with both Gold and Silver -0.2%; volatility is light with EDTRs on the Market Ranges page just coming off recent peaks. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have moved below their +80% axis indicative of lower price levels ahead: there is structural support from the present 162s down to the 160s, failing which we'd look to the 158s. Chair Powell begins two-days of Congressional testimony, today being with the House Financial Services Committee.
10 Feb '20, 04:39 Pacific Time: Given the recent globals goings-on as noted in The Gold Update, the BEGOS Markets' start to the new week is fairly muted. To the upside we've Silver +0.5% followed by Copper +0.4%; to the downside we've Oil -0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is coming off its worst weekly net change (-1.2%) in 3 months, but that pales in comparison to price's upside strength coming out of Dec. Either way, the Gold/Silver ratio remains 'round high extremes at 88.7x; Gold at present (1575) is 50 points above its smooth valuation line per the Market Values page; however, 'tis fairly in sync with its Market Magnet. The bulk of this week's incoming EconData is due Thu/Fri.
07 Feb '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4%, the BEGOS Markets range from "unch" for Gold down to -1.3% for Copper; Oil is -0.8% and the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo finished yesterday 71 points above its Market Magnet and in real-time even with price at present -13 points, 'tis 115 points above its smooth valuation line at Market Values; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 40.6x; all those extremes noted, the S&P's Moneyflow has been more than supportive of the Index's up move; with 298 of the 500 constituents having reported their Q4 earnings, 66% are better year-over-year. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Payrolls data plus Dec's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
06 Feb '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The S&P looks to further its move into record-high territory come the stock market's open, the Spoo +0.4%; leading to the upside is Silver +0.9% followed by Gold +0.5%; only the Swiss Franc -0.1% is in the red; volatility is moderate. 31 studies at present populate the Market Rhythms list as recent volatility provides for signals following-though. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are (in real-time) curling upward for the 1st time in nearly a month, whilst those for the Bond are giving an initial drop of having peaked. Q4's Productivity comes due for the Econ Baro.
05 Feb '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: We've more upside follow-through for the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components with Oil +2.6%, Copper +1.5% and the Spoo +0.7%; there are "reports that scientists have developed an effective drug against the fast-spreading coronavirus"; weakest of the bunch are the Bond and Swiss France, both -0.3%; volatility remains moderate-to-robust. Note at the S&P's Moneyflow page the leading aspect of the flow having been more positive than the Index's recent peregrinations of late regardless of direction. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have curled up above their -80% axis suggestive of higher price levels: there is structural resistance 'round the 1.1130 area. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index, plus Dec's Trade Deficit.
04 Feb '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Recuperation continues for the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components with Copper +2.0%, Oil +1.5% and the Spoo +1.1%; even Silver +0.3% is siding with that group; the balance of the bunch are lower, led by the Bond -0.5%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. The S&P's correction from its 22 Jan intra-day high has been as much as -3.7% with more that half of that since recovered come today's open given the present stance of the Spoo. Per Market Values, Oil is 10 points below its smooth valuation line whilst the Bond is 7 points above its like reference. Dec's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
03 Feb '20, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are showing some reversal of last week's direction as the economically-driven components are a bit higher with Copper +0.7%, the Spoo + 0.3% and Oil + 0.1%, (the latter having been down -2.3% earlier in the session); weakest amongst the safe havens are Silver -1.4% followed by Gold -0.6% and the Bond -0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with all three elements of the metals triumvirate tracing in excess of 100% of their EDTRs. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's safe-haven strength in countering January's uncertainties. The Econ Baro kicks off the week with Jan's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, plus Dec's Construction Spending.
31 Jan '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday, the economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Oil -0.9%, Copper -0.8%, and the Spoo -0.5%; and again the upside safe haven leaders changes are more muted, led by the Bond and Gold, both +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Notable Market Value extreme readings from their respective smooth valuation lines include the Bond being 6 points "high", Gold 65 points "high", and Oil 8 points "low". 'Tis a busy day for the Econ Baro, highlighted by Jan's Chi PMI, Dec's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus Q4's Employment Cost Index. Brexit arrives as the UK technically withdraws from the EU with 11 months of business and trading negotiating in the balance.
30 Jan '20, 04:19 Pacific Time: The coronavirus is given credit for the fallout in the economically-driven elements of the BEGOS Markets, Oil -1.7%, the Spoo -0.7% and Copper -0.6%; Silver +1.2% leads the most on the upside, the other safe haven gains actually be quite muted, at most +0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust with both the Spoo and Copper have traced in excess of 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). At Market Trends, only the Bond's "Baby Blues" are in ascent as they fall across the balance of the 7 other components. Today brings the Econ Baro's first peek at Q4 GDP.
29 Jan '20, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag with Gold +0.3% leading to the upside: the yellow metal's cac volume is rolling from Feb into Apr; weakest are Oil and the EuroCurrencies, all -0.2%; volatility again is moderate. 'Tis rare from the Market Rhythms page that we get a 10 for 10 study having reached at least $1,000/cac every time, but that is the stance as presently listed for Gold's daily MACD, the 10 instances beginning back on 31 May. Silver by its declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) reached our structural support level of 17.42; they continue to decline too for Gold which is itself is stalling more than falling, the Gold/Silver ratio up to 89.9x(!). The S&P's "live" P/E is 40.7x(!) For the Econ Baro, today brings Dec's Pending Home Sales. No rate change expected from the FOMC.
28 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's -1.6% S&P loss, (which on a % basis ties it with the 08 Oct loss as noted in The Gold Update), 'tis a bit premature to call this a "Turnaround Tuesday", however the Spoo is +0.4%, bettered only by Oil +0.5%; weakest (after being firmest 'round this time yesterday) is Silver -0.9%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the fall of the PMs' "Baby Blues" continues, but per yesterday's comment at less steep a rate. Given the coronavirus issue vis-à-vis China, the selling in Copper finds it extremely below its Market Magnet, albeit the red metal at present is only -0.1%. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's Consumer Confidence and Dec's Durable Orders.
27 Jan '20, 04:24 Pacific Time: Whilst the coronavirus can be a catalyst to sell an extremely overvalued S&P, our take is ultimately 'twill be the "Look Ma No Earnings" scenario that really sets off the inevitable crash, the S&P's "live" P/E at 40.0x. With safe havens nonetheless getting the bid within the BEGOS Markets, we've Oil -2.8%, Copper -1.9%, and the Spoo -1.3%; firmest is Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update reiterates the declining state (per Market Trends) of the PMs "Baby Blues" thus suggesting our cited lower levels, however in real-time their rate of descent now is being curtailed. Dec's New Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro.
24 Jan '20, 04:15 Pacific Time: The session's up-pairing to this juncture is the Spoo +0.3% and Silver +0.2%; the other 6 BEGOS Markets all are in the red, the weakest being Oil and Copper, both -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The PMs are putting in a rather narrow trading week instead of seeing their prices fall as suggested by the declining "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page: indeed in real-time, Silver's blue dots have fallen below their 0% axis line; those for Gold whilst also dropping are 'round the +50% level. The Econ Baro has already completed a fairly net neutral week; next week ramps up the incoming pace of Q4 earnings reports.
23 Jan '20, 04:16 Pacific Time: Only the Bond +0.3% and Spoo +0.1% are in the black for the BEGOS Markets; weakest is Silver -1.1%, followed by Oil -0.5%, Copper -0.4% and Gold -0.3%; with Silver trading to its lowest level (17.59) since 24 Dec, the PMs could well be en route to the aforementioned structural support levels of 1521 for Gold and 17.42 for Silver given the ongoing breakdown of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). Session volatility is moderate. Oil's selloff over the past 2 weeks finds price (at present 55.82) 5 full points below the valuation line at Market Value and better than 3 points below its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Leading Indicators.
22 Jan '20, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.4%, the other BEGOS Markets are "unch" to lower, the weakest being Oil and the Swiss Franc, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for both PMs are accelerating their falls such that the notion in the current Gold Update for lower price levels near-term remains quite viable, (as therein noted by structural support 1521 for Gold and 17.42 for Silver). Again per yesterday's comment, the Market Values page continues to show both Gold and the Spoo as "high" (in real-time respectively by 45 and 107 points) above their smooth valuation lines. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: The two-day session for the BEGOS Markets now finds Oil -1.8% (concerns over the Libyan production halt waning) followed by Copper -1.5%; the balance of the bunch range from the Spoo -0.3% to the Bond +0.2%; volatility as expected has progressed to moderate-to-robust, Oil and Copper have well-exceeded (given 2 days) 100% tracings of their EDTRs. Market Values extremes find the Spoo some 93 points "high" even given its pullback at present and Gold some 48 points "high" as well. Q4 Earnings Season picks up the pace this week, the average year-over-year improvement thus far for S&P 500 components being +3.5%, (essentially infinitesimal toward bridging the gap from the "live" P/E of 41.4x to the FinMedia forward P/E of 18.7x).
20 Jan '20, 04:20 Pacific Time: Stateside physical bourses are closed for MLK Day but the BEGOS Markets are gliding along fairly split, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo all off just a tad and the metals triumvirate up by no more than same; a military blockade in Libya halted activity at two large production facilities, in turn having Oil (now on the Mar cac) gapping higher by +1.3% only to have said gap since filled back down such that price is now +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, which ought pick up as this session extends into Tue. The Gold Update looks near-term for a yellow metal dip to 1521 and a white metal dip to 17.42 given the fallout in both PMs "Baby Blues (see Market Trends) below their respective +80% axes. The "live" P/E of the S&P is at an unconscionable 41.3x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.4x.
17 Jan '20, 04:37 Pacific Time: Only the BEGOS Markets' Bond -0.4% and EuroCurrencies (both -0.2%) are in the red, the upside being led by the metals triumvirate with Silver +0.8%, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.4% -- despite which even Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Still, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed crossing below their +80% axis such that we expect to see lower price levels near-term, as already has been suggested for Silver. Gold (presently 1558) shows dominant trading support by its Market Profile at 1552, failing which there is structural support sub-1536 in the 1520s. The climbing Econ Baro finishes the week with Dec's Housing Start/Permits, IndProd/CapUtil, and Jan's UofM Sentiment Survey.
16 Jan '19, 06:20 Central Euro Time: (In transit)- Early on the BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of a busy session for incoming econ data. Weakest is Silver -0.4% whilst firmest is Oil +0.2%; volatility as expected is light to this point, albeit Copper has already traced 54% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" continue their descent and those for Gold have (in real-time) curled down to their borderline +80% axis; per Market Values, Gold continues to hover some 50 point above its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Philly Fed Index and NAHB Housing Index, Dec's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing, and Nov's Business Inventories.
15 Jan '19, 08:51 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on low-to-moderate volatility, the safe havens getting a mild bid and the economically-driven components coming off by just a bit. Firmest are Gold +0.3% and Silver +0.2%; weakest is Copper -0.5%, followed by Oil and the Spoo, both -0.1%. Silver's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed breaking below their +80% axis suggesting we'll see price move near-term down into the aforementioned 17.20-17.10 zone; again, those for Gold look to soon follow suit. Today brings both the Phase 1 USA/China trade deal signing as well as the Fed's "Beige Book". Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 10:01 Central Euro Time: Save for just mild increases in the Bond and EuroCurrencies, the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver -1.1% followed by Oil -0.4% and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have broken below their +80% axis, suggestive of a move lower into structural support 'round the 17.20-17.10 zone, (price currently 17.75); those for Gold are curling down, albeit have yet to breech the +80% axis; still, by Market Values, Gold is some 50 points above its smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's CPI.
13 Jan '19, 08:35 Central Euro Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets downside losers in commencing the new week, Silver -0.7.% and Gold -0.6%; The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's price having yet again gone through a geopolitical rewind as is it wont, spiking up on such events only to return from whence it came. The firmest components are Copper +0.4% and the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is mostly light to this early point as only Gold has exceeded tracing 50% of its EDTR, which per Market Ranges has of course notably widened. 'Tis a busy week for the Econ Baro. Note, too, that the P/E for the S&P has topped 40x: something to mind as Q4 Earnings Season unfolds.
10 Jan '19, 13:20 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of Dec's payrolls data. Firmest is the Spoo +0.3% whilst weakest are Gold and the Swiss Franc, both -0.2%; volatility is again light. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to drop swiftly; those for the EuroCurrencies and the metals triumvirate are in various stages of decline. Gold (presently 1551) is just a point below broad-based trading support (see Market Profiles) at 1552; only 1518 has more dominant support volume. Due, too, for the Econ Baro is Nov's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Jan '20, 04:33 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets notable losers, Silver -1.3% and Gold -0.6%; both metals having traced better than 100% of their EDTRs; otherwise, volatility is actually light within the context that Market Ranges generally have been on the increase; the session's upside leader is the Spoo, +0.4%. By Market Values, Oil has (in real-time) returned down to its smooth valuation line, whilst Gold is some 50 points "high" and the Bond some 5 points "low". And by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) dropping precipitately from having been above their +80% axis, suggestive of lower prices ahead such as to test support structure in the mid-59s to mid-57s, (price currently 59.88)
08 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The geopolitical flareup saw Gold spike to as high as 1613 (now 1580) and the Spoo plummet to as low as 3181 (now 3241), tensions now "said" to be "de-escalating". At present, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way with (as was the case 'round now yesterday) no one component changed by more than 0.3% either way; volatility is obviously robust (and then some) with all but one component (the Euro) tracing in excess of 100% of its EDTR, and notably Gold, the Spoo and Oil each exceeding 250%. Meanwhile, due for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP jobs data and Nov's Consumer Credit.
07 Jan '20, 04:18 Pacific Time: As geopolitical news wanes a bit, so does the ranginess of the BEGOS Markets, no one component at present changed by more than 0.3% in either direction: -0.3% is the Swiss Franc and at the opposite extreme +0.2% are both Copper and Gold; the latter had traded as high as 1590 yesterday, having since fallen some 33 points to this session's low thus far of 1557; only the yellow metal has traced in excess of 100% (112%) of its EDTR, volatility for the balance of the bunch being moderate. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's ISM(SVC) Index plus Nov's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders. Q4 Earnings Season is beginning.
06 Jan '20, 04:30 Pacific Time: Further follow-through from Fri's directional moves highlight the start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, with Silver +2.0%, Gold +1.5% and Oil +1.2%, but the Spoo -0.5% and Copper -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold has traded 229% of its EDTR, reaching as high as 1590, just 85 points below our forecast high for the entirety of 2020 at 1675 as further detailed in The Gold Update. Per Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) 86 points above its smooth valuation line, however we've had readings within the past year of deviations well exceeding 100 points in both Jun and Aug; Oil's present deviation is +5 points, a range it too exceeded during 2019.
03 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The event in Baghdad has the BEGOS Markets even more on the move than typically we see in starting a new year: firmest is Oil +3.9% followed by Gold +1.2%; Copper is weakest -2.0% followed by the Spoo -1.3%; volatility is robust, indeed 4 components having traced more than 200% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). The S&P 500 ("live" P/E 40.1x) is obviously far overdue for a decline; with an eye toward Gold, we note that price rising on geo-political events has a tendency to return from whence it came in the ensuing days as the lead story falls from primary focus. Dec's ISM(Mfg) Index, Vehicle Sales and Nov's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro, the balance of the day featuring FedSpeak and the FOMC's Minutes from its 10-11 Dec meeting.
02 Jan '20, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo and Copper, both +0.4%, are the new year's upside leaders, followed by Gold, Silver and the Bond all +0.3%; the EuroCurrencies and Oil are slightly weaker; volatility is moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) did not quite turn the upside corner come Tue's close, remaining below the -80% axis; however, those for Copper in curling lower confirmed settling under their +80% axis such that price may come off in the near term. Thanks to Investing.com for including in their 2020 Outlook our call for Gold 1675 and the notion of being Short the S&P by Nov's StateSide election.
31 Dec '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed for this final session of 2019, all components to settle at their usual times, (despite early closures/holidays elsewhere 'round the globe). Weakest is Oil -1.4% followed by Copper -0.2%; the PMs are the upside leaders with Silver +0.8% and Gold +0.5%; volatility is moderate, although Gold has traced 104% of its EDTR. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics reversed to Short yesterday nixing our 158^09 MRT: however, per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) climbing out above their -80% axis which if confirmed at today's close suggests higher prices ahead. Dec's Consumer Confidence completes the Econ Baro for the year. Bonne Année!
30 Dec '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: With the exceptions of the Bond -0.6% and Gold -0.1%, the BEGOS Markets are starting the week to the upside, led by Oil +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update selects our forecast high in 2020 for the yellow metal at 1675 and notes that by M2 currency debasement (even as adjusted for Gold's supply increase) that valuation for the 1st time has crossed above the $3,000/oz. threshold; as well, the core technical study of Gold's weekly parabolics has flipped from Short back to Long. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Chi PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
27 Dec '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: A reversal of fortune thus far for the BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate with Silver and Copper both -0.5% and Gold - 0.1%; the balance of the bunch range from the Bond being "unch" to higher ground for the Euro and Swiss Franc, both +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, with the 2 EuroCurrencies well-exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics triggered to the Longside yesterday (from a price of 156^15, price at present 156^25) for an MRT of 158^09 (or more conservatively 157^21); the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning the curl upward, albeit are below their -80% axis (at -84% in real-time). The Spoo +0.3% ought have the S&P open at a still further record high.
26 Dec '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: More gains for the metals triumvirate of the BEGOS Markets with Silver +1.2% trading and above 18 for the 1st time since 05 Nov, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.4% as noted having regained 1500; volatility again is ranging from light-to-robust, Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, the Spoo tracing but 20%, noting that key European and Asian bourses are closed for this trade date. Silver's robust performance in recent days now finds the Gold/Silver ratio down to 83.5x, (still extremely high by historical standards). Both PMs are "high" relative to their respective Market Magnets, but such is a characteristic of swift rise.
24 Dec '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate of the BEGOS Markets is the upside leader into this shortened session (all components closing within the 10:15-10:45 Pacific time frame): Silver is +1.0%, Copper +0.6% and Gold +0.3%; the only downsider is the Euro -0.1%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with just a 19% EDTR tracing to robust for Silver with a 113% tracing. The Gold Update of 30 Nov queried "Shall Santa Gift Gold at 1500?": price this session has traded as high as 1496, so 'tis right close. Either way, a most Merry Christmas to Everyone everywhere! St. Nick comes through: Gold 1500 just traded at 07:11 PT. Cheers!
23 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black to kick off the week led by Silver +0.9% followed by Gold and the Spoo both +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold has traded as high as 1489, nicely on the heels of the current Gold Update entitled "Gold Need Dial In a Little More Power" after price put in its narrowest trading week of the last 14 years, still with the potential to regain 1500 to finish the year. By Market Trends, the only component in a linreg downtrend is the Bond. 'Tis a very light week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, today bringing in Nov's Durable Orders and New Home Sales.
20 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: As the final full trading week of the year draws toward a close, as was the case yesterday we've little change either way in the BEGOS Markets, most being a tad mildly lower, save for Silver +0.1%; weakest is Copper -0.4% followed by Oil -0.3%; again volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Ranges, the EDTRs for all 8 components are narrowing; by Market Magnets, most of the bunch's prices are inside deviations recorded across the last 3 months, the Spoo and Oil appearing somewhat "high" as do they at Market Values. Metrics for the Econ Baro include Nov's Personal Income/Spending and Fed-favoured Core PCE Index, plus the final read on Q3 GDP.
19 Dec '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets continue on in their comparatively muted mode, the largest changers at present being the Bond and Silver, both -0.4%; the balance of the bunch are +0.1% to -0.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P's 3-day trading range of 14.85 points is the narrowest since 09 Aug 2018. The Spoo per its Market Profile shows 3199 as the most dominantly-traded price in the past 2 weeks, under which there is a dearth of support until 3173, followed by another until the 1351-1340 range. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Philly Fed Index, Nov's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Q3's Current Account Balance.
18 Dec '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Both the Bond and Spoo are +0.1%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Copper -0.4% followed by the Euro -0.3%; volatility again is mostly light and by the Market Ranges page, EDTRs either are stalling or outright dropping. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have risen above their +80% axis, confirming the linreg trend as consistent; those for the EuroCurrencies and Oil are stretching upward to achieve same. And by Market Values, the two components most distance from their smooth valuation lines are Oil (some 3 points "high") and the Spoo (some 75 points "high").
17 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Changes for the BEGOS Markets are fairly subtle: up the most is Oil +0.3%, the weakest component being the "unch" Spoo; volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver have turned positive, however those for the Bond are accelerating to the downside; currently 157^16, the Bond has Profile trading support in the 157^00-to-156^28 zone. Our "live" P/E for the S&P has reached the 38.0x level. Oil's cac vol is rolling from Jan into Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's Housing Starts/Permits and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
16 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.2% is down to start the BEGOS Markets' new week (and the final full one of the year) the upside leaders being Copper +0.7%, Oil +0.5%, Silver +0.4% and the Spoo +0.3% such that the S&P 500 may open at a fresh all-time high, our "live" P/E at 37.4x; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold is "unch" notwithstanding The Gold Update citing the track to 1500 by year's end being in order; the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.7x. The Econ Baro has a busy week beginning today with Dec's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
13 Dec '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Fundamentals are afoot in fostering BEGOS Markets directions given a China "Phase 1" deal purportedly being inked and Johnson being victorious in the UK: up the most of the components is Oil +1.0% followed by the Euro 0.4%, the latter gapping to open above its page's "high if an up day" guesstimate; off the most is Copper -0.2%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo by its EDTR tracing of 39% to robust for the Swiss Franc with a 129% tracing. Cac vol for the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is moving from Dec into Mar. Today's metrics for the Econ Baro include Nov's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Pricing, plus Oct's Business Inventories.
12 Dec '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: We've another fairly muted session for the BEGOS Markets, this time ahead of the ECB and Lagarde's 1st post-policy presser thereto. Oil +0.3% is the firmest component whilst weakest is Copper -0.4%, mirror changes to both their stances 'round this time yesterday. Copper's Market Magnet is nearly 10¢ below present price, the red metal appearing as at an extreme "high" by that measure. As the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to work lower for both Gold and Silver, their prices nonetheless are fighting to stay firm. Due for the Econ Baro is Nov's PPI.
11 Dec '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted ahead of what (by Fed Funds futures pricing) shall be a "no-move" by the central bank; firmest is Copper +0.4% and weakest is Oil -0.3%; volatility is mostly light. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both PMs have turned south without nearing their +80% axes: whilst this a technical negative, we still (per The Gold Update) look to Gold's 1454-1434 "support shelf" to hold through year-end, indeed seeing 1500 en route. At present amongst all 8 components, only Silver's 21-day linreg trend is down, the Gold/Silver ratio ever-high at 88.1x. Nov's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
10 Dec '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: We find the BEGOS Markets mixed with the metals triumvirate to the upside, Copper +0.4% and as was the case at this time yesterday Gold and Silver both +0.3%; to the downside are Oil and the Spoo, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still falling: notably, the Spoo's recent rally (from 3070 up to 3151) did not reach the all-time high (3158); note, too, that the same measure for both Gold and Silver is running out of upside puff. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 revisions for Productivity (initially negative) and Unit Labor Costs.
09 Dec '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week with the economically-driven components on the outs, the best bids going to Gold and Silver, both +0.3%, and the Bond +0.2%; weakest are Oil -0.8%, Copper -0.6% and the Spoo -0.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update points to price maintaining its stance above the 1454-1434 "support shelf" despite Fri's fallout. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) continuing their climbout above the 0% axis, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to positive; and by Market Values, Gold is some 22 points below its smooth valuation line. Silver remains significantly attractive relative to Gold, the Gold/Silver ratio at 88.0x.
06 Dec '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Ahead of Nov's payrolls data the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, bookmarked with the Bond, the Spoo and Copper all +0.2% and Oil -0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Gold/Silver ratio is 87x such as we saw this past August; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 36.0x: both those ratios are of course in rarefied high air. By Market Values, the Spoo (which had been some 100 points "high" per its smooth valuation line some two weeks ago) is still 50 points "high"; and by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are swiftly falling. Also due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's UofM Sentiment Survey, plus Oct's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit.
05 Dec '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Again getting the bid are the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components with Oil +0.7%, followed by the Spoo +0.4% and Copper +0.3%; weakest is the Bond -0.2%; volatility has swung to being mostly light. Depending on one's charting, the much of the bunch appear to be plodding through near-term technical encumbrance: notably, the Bond, the Spoo and Copper are all trading near the mid-point of their respective 10-day Market Profiles. Still there's a good dose of data due for the Econ Baro into week's end, today including Oct's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
04 Dec '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher led by Oil +1.3%, Copper +0.7% and the Spoo +0.5%; the balance of the bunch are all in the red, but not severely so, the weakest being the Bond -0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold not only hit the 1480.3 MRT noted yesterday, but this session's high (1489.9) is essentially 10 points from the 1500 level cited from "Santa" in the current edition of the Gold Update. The Spoo yesterday confirmed its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) dropping below their +80% level and they're lower still today: we see some structural support in the 3055-3021 area. The Econ Baro looks to Nov's ADP jobs data and ISM(Svc) Index.
03 Dec '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate are book-ending the BEGOS Markets: both Gold and Silver are +0.5% whilst Copper is -0.5%; the Spoo is lower too at -0.3%, (the latter 2 'tis said in response to a China trade deal perhaps being postponed until after the StateSide election). Session volatility is moderate. Gold's daily MACD confirmed a Long signal, (from yesterday's settle at 1470.3), for an MRT of 1480.3, (high thus far 1476.7). Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) dropping below the +80% level, indicative of lower prices ahead. Nov's Vehicle Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
02 Dec '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil +2.1% is the BEGOS Markets firm leader to begin Dec, yet the only other 2 components in the black -- and barely that -- are the Spoo and Swiss Franc, both +0.1%; weakest are the Bond and Silver, both -0.9%, followed by Gold -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond having traded 150% of its EDTR and moreover achieving our MRT of 157^20. Despite Gold being off, The Gold Update makes the case for the yellow metal finishing above 1500 by year-end. Due Econ Baro are Nov's ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending.
29 Nov '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: As the Fri session continues we find the only BEGOS Markets not lower are Gold +0.1% and the Bond "unch"; adding to its losses is Copper -1.2% with the balance of the bunch only off by as much as -0.2% at present; Copper's tracing of its EDTR has expanded to 113%; volatility for this 2-day session otherwise moderate. The Bond's 12-hr Parabolics continue their fresh Short course as we look to an MRT of 157^20 (Mar cac). Despite the Spoo being lower, it is 98 points above its smooth valuation line on the Market Values page; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 37.5x. 'Tis an early settle today for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and Spoo at 10:15 PT and the Metals and Oil at 10:45 PT.
28 Nov '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: StateSide Thanksgiving finds the BEGOS Markets weaker on balance, this session for Fri settle with Copper -0.6%, Oil -0.5% and the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly light, albeit Copper and the Spoo have respectively traced 89% and 72% of their EDTRs in the China "off-again, on-again" trading sentiment. The week's data for the Econ Baro is all in place, pushing the measure up to its highest reading since 15 Oct. Cac vol for the Bond is moving from Dec into Mar for which we've a fresh MRT of 157^20 (from an entry of 159^10) per the 12-hr. Parabolics having confirmed flipping to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT. Trading halt today is from 10:00 PT until 15:00 PT.
27 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Down with the BEGOS Markets safe havens and up with the economically-driven components, led by Oil +0.5%, Copper +0.3%, and the Spoo +0.1%; the PMs are weakest with Silver -0.3% and Gold -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The metals triumvirate cac vols are moving from Dec into Feb for Gold and into Mar for Silver and Copper. With StateSide physical bourses closed tomorrow (and only open for an abbreviated Fri session), the Econ Baro gets a dose of 9 incoming metrics today including Nov's Chi PMI, Oct's Personal Income/Spending/Core PCE, Durables and Pending Home Sales, plus the 1st revision to Q3 GDP. The BEGOS Markets will open as usual this afternoon, (then with at 5-hour trading halt tomorrow until 15:00 PT).
26 Nov '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo presently "unch" at 3132 did an overnight loopty-loo in swiftly zooming up to 3145 on promising China "Phase 1" deal talk and then zipped back down; the firmest BEGOS Market is Oil +0.4% followed by Silver +0.3%, the balance of the bunch being flat to marginally up; volatility is mostly moderate. By Market Values the Spoo is 94 points "high" above its smooth valuation line and at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" have steadied their mild decline, hovering 'round the +90% level; those for the Swiss Franc are accelerating lower within their already linreg negative trend. The Econ Baro looks to Nov's Consumer Confidence and Oct's New Home Sales.
25 Nov '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Only Copper +0.4% and the Spoo +0.2% are in the black to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest component being Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility light-to-moderate. The Gold Update's being entitled "Higher Gold Ahead" is the thrust of our missive as we look to the 1454-1434 "support zone" to hold, meaning the worst of the present parabolic Short trend is in place with a shot a price closing the year above 1500. Q3 Earnings Season concludes with only 52% of the 2,105 reports bettering their bottom lines vs. Q3 of a year ago, for the weakest year-over-year quarterly improvement since Q1 of 2016.
22 Nov '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: In a turnabout from this time yesterday, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, the firmest being Gold and Copper, both +0.5%, followed by Silver and the Bond, both +0.4%; volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 28% tracing of its EDTR to robust for the Euro with a 127% tracing, the latter moving about in response to the 1st key address by new ECB President Christine Lagarde. The Spoo by Market Values is 83 points above its smooth valuation line and by Market Trends the "Baby Blues" have slipped sub-90% (reaching down sub-80% would portend lower levels ahead). The Econ Baro wraps its week with the revision to Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey; and today is the final day of a comparatively mediocre Q3 Earnings Season.
21 Nov '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Save for the Euro +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -0.8% followed by Silver -0.4%; volatility marches onward at the moderate pace we've been seeing of late. The Spoo (at present 3108) is well off its overnight low of 3091; however per yesterday's comment, the Spoo by Market Values is still 85 points (in real-time) above its smooth valuation line, whilst at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" (albeit still above +90%) are (also in real-time) dipping the most in at least the past month. 'Tis the Econ Baro's busiest day for this week, reports including Nov's Philly Fed Index, plus Oct's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales.
20 Nov '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.7% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Bond +0.4% and then Copper +0.3%; weakest are the Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo, all -0.2%; volatility continues to run at a moderate pace. The Bond's MRT of 159^28 has been met. The Spoo after making an all-time high yesterday has in this session traded below the lows of both the prior 2 sessions, suggesting a top may be in place: at Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 104 points above its smooth valuation line; the live P/E of the S&P is 36.8x. The FOMC Minutes from the 29-30 Oct meeting are due at 11:00 PT.
19 Nov '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets strength to this point is with Silver and Copper, both +0.5%, whilst to the weak side we've Oil -0.7%; volatility is moderate and by the Market Ranges page most components have slowed the narrowing of their respective EDTRs. The MRT on the Bond for 159^28 remains intact as the 12-hr. Parabolics travel their Longside course; at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" whist still sub-0% are accelerating their climb toward that axis; and at Market Values, the Bond is better than 3 points below its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro are Oct's Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Nov '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets: we've the PMs leading to the downside with Silver -0.9% and Gold -0.6%, (as is Oil -0.6%); The Gold Update graphically shows the resilient character of the 1454-1434 "support shelf" which finally was tested last week within the overall parabolic Short trend now entering its 10th week. Firmer this session are both the Spoo +0.2% and Euro +0.1%. Volatility is maintaining a moderate pace. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics continue to support our MRT for 159^28. Oil's cac vol is moving from Dec into Jan. And Q3 Earnings Season moves into its final week: 'tis the weakest year-over-year comparative Season since Q1 of 2016.
15 Nov '19, 04:10 Pacific Time: In a reversal from this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mostly lower with Silver to the downside by -0.8% followed by Oil -0.4%; only mildly gaining are Copper, the Spoo and the Euro; volatility continues running at a moderate pace. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics yesterday confirmed (at 12:00 PT) a flip to Long from an entry level of 158^21 (presently 158^07) with an MRT of 159^28, (which by the current Market Rhythms list seeks a gain of $1,200/cac from the entry level). A big dose of data hits the Econ Baro today, including Nov's NY State Empire Index, Oct's Retail Sales, IndProd/CapUtil and Ex/Im Pricing, and Sep's Business Inventories.
14 Nov '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, led by Oil +0.7% and then Copper and the Bond, both +0.5%; the weak links are the Euro and the Spoo, both -0.1%; volatility remains moderate. As noted back on 05 Nov and as listed on the current Market Rhythms list, Gold's 4-hr. Moneyflow has been regularly been producing signals with attractive follow-through. At Market Trends, save for Oil and the Spoo, the other 6 components all are in 21-day linreg downtrends. And at Market Values, the Spoo still shows as some 100 points "high" above its smooth valuation line. Due for the Econ Baro is Oct's PPI.
13 Nov '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've the opposite of Mon's session with the safe havens of the BEGOS Markets to the upside led by Silver +1.2%, the Bond +0.8% and Gold +0.6%; the economically-driven components are all lower with Oil -0.7%, the Spoo -0.3% and Copper -0.2%; volatility again is moderate. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" of all 8 markets are falling, (including barely in real-time those for the Spoo, albeit they're very still high, basically in their ceiling crawl at +95%). Metrics for the Econ Baro kick into gear for the remainder of the week, today bringing in Oct's CPI and Treasury Budget.
12 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are lightly lower led by Silver -0.5% and then the Swiss Franc and Copper, both -0.3%; the only net gainer at present is Oil +0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's EDTR by Market Ranges is down to 22 points, the narrowest since early May; again by Market Values, the Spoo is 100 points "high", (as of course is the "live" P/E of the S&P at 33.3x); and by Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are crawling across the ceiling, but those for Oil appear to be running out of upside puff, and those for Copper are now accelerating lower, all 3 of those markets having been in positive upside correlation. Trump gives a luncheon address at the ECNY.
11 Nov '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Out with the economically-driven markets and in with the safe havens: weakest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil -1.7% followed by Copper -1.1%; firmest is Silver +0.5% followed by Gold and the Bond both +0.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites price having all but reached the 1454-1434 support shelf in trading on Fri as low as 1457, our sense being this is about as far down as price shall travel within the course of the still Short weekly parabolic trend. As well, the S&P 500 remains extremely expensive by any and all valuations at which we look, including the Spoo by the Markets Value page being 100 points above its smooth valuation line. And by the Earnings Season page, with some 1900 reports recorded, just 53% have bettered Q3 of a year ago, similar to the pace seen for Q2 and Q1.
08 Nov '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red which (even without looking) one knows the Dollar is firmer on the session. Off the most is Silver -2.0% followed by Oil -1.4%; volatility is moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is 87.3x(!) Gold is on its session low of 1461: recall from recent editions of The Gold Update that 1454-1434 is the support zone for we've watched during this current weekly parabolic Short trend. The Euro by its descending "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) has reached our soft targeted area of the mid-1.10s (this session's low 1.10510). With but a couple of weeks still to run in Q3 Earnings Season, 418 of the S&P 500's constituents have reported with 62% improving over Q3 of a year ago, (73% having "beaten" estimates). The Econ Baro looks to Nov's UofM Sentiment read and Sep's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Nov '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The otherwise docile BEGOS Markets were awakened overnight by China's having "agreed" with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases, Oil in turn now +1.2% and Copper +1.0%, with Silver -0.9% and the Bond -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond tracing 114% of its EDTR and Copper 106% of its EDTR. The Euro's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue to fall, price overnight touching down to 1.10800. The Gold/Silver ratio is back up to 85.0x and our "live" P/E for the S&P is 34.2x. Due late in the session for the Econ Baro is Sep's Consumer Credit.
06 Nov '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Quietude has returned to the BEGOS Markets: weakest is Silver -0.4%, firmest is the Bond +0.2, and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have accelerated their downside pace, price both yesterday and today having dipped into the aforementioned 1.10s with the mid-1.10s still a reasonable target area; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs are rolling over without having achieved much upside travel, (i.e. not reaching the key +80% area), so that is a near-term negative: again both Gold and Silver are in the midst of weekly parabolic Short trends. As well, the Spoo looks to be running out of puff, notably with both Oil and Copper a bit weaker this session. For the Econ Baro we've Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 Nov '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets are to the upside, led by Oil and Copper both +0.7%; the safe havens are in the loss column, led by the Bond -0.6% and then Gold -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, however in the context that per the Market Ranges page our EDTRs have been narrowing. From the list of current qualifiers at the Market Rhythms page, Gold's 4-hr. Moneyflow study has been notably attractive. And per Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" have today (in real-time) lurched lower in support of our notion for price seeking the mid-1.10s, (present = 1.11395). The Econ Baro looks to Oct's ISM(Svc) Index and Sep's Trade Deficit.
04 Nov '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are displaying a bit more life than were they 'round this time during much of last week. Oil +1.1% is the firmest of the bunch, followed by the Spoo +0.5%; weakest is the Bond -0.6%, followed by the Swiss Franc -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 81% and Gold the narrowest tracer at 36%. The Gold Update questions price moving above the 1526 into the balance of the year, or if the ongoing (albeit shallow) weekly parabolic Short trend has more duration to run. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) crossing below our key +80% level; those for the Euro continue to wane, but just mildly. Sep's Factory Orders come into the Econ Baro.
01 Nov '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Econ Baro effected by 19 incoming metrics this week alone slides into Friday with Oct's payrolls data, ISM(Mfg) Index, Vehicle Sales, and Sep's Construction Spending in the balance. Ahead of it all, the BEGOS Markets (after a more robust day yesterday) are little changed either way with Oil +0.4% up the most and both Gold and Copper -0.2% off the most; volatility is mostly light within the overall guise of narrowing EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. At Market Trends, despite the Euro's firming this week, its "Baby Blues" have moved (in real-time) down to the +70% level; and rising are those for the Bond, having confirmed yesterday a cross above their -80% level, indicative of still higher levels ahead near-term, (from the current 161s toward the 163s).
31 Oct '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Following a series of comparably slow sessions to this point of the day, (and the anticipated -0.25% FedFunds cut being in the bag), the BEGOS Markets are more active: firmest is Silver +1.4% followed by Gold +0.8%; weakest is Copper -0.9% followed by the Spoo -0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust within the construct that Market Ranges have been narrowing considerably. The Euro has been firm these last 2 sessions despite the Market Trends sub-80% breach by the "Baby Blues": presently 1.11940, were price to exceed 1.12220, prudent cash management can opt to caution the mid-1.10s call. Today's Econ Baro inputs include Q3's Employment Cost Index, Oct's Chi PMI, plus Sep's Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE inflation (Fed-favoured) reading.
30 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a bit more movement to this point of the session than we've been seeing: yesterday, all 8 components settled inside of their respective neutral zones, something we don't recall having noted in the past. At present, Gold and Silver both are +0.4% whilst Copper is -0.4%; still, volatility is mostly light, although the Swiss Franc has traced 71% of its EDTR. The Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) confirmed slipping below their +80% axis such that we expect price (presently 1.11430) to dip over the near-term toward the mid-1.10s. The Econ Baro receives the 1st read on Q3 GDP and Oct's ADP jobs data; the FOMC announce their -0.25% rate cut come 11:00 PT.
29 Oct '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in sideways modes, indeed all 8 within what we'd refer to as their respective neutral zones. 2 components are "unch" (Gold and the Spoo) whilst the other 6 are lower, the weakest being Oil and Silver, both -0.4%; volatility is as light as can be with 6 of the components tracing less than 30% of their EDTRs, that measure itself swiftly dropping across the spectrum as can be seen on the Market Ranges page. The Euro's "Baby Blues (per Market Trends) have in real-time slipped below their +80% axis, which upon an end-of-day confirmation would be suggestive of still lower price levels. The Econ Baro looks to Oct's Consumer Confidence and Sep's Pending Home Sales.
28 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: To start the week the word is "sideways" for the BEGOS Markets on relatively light volatility. The largest net change at present is Oil's being -0.5%, whilst to the upside Silver is +0.4%. The Gold Update highlights Silver's upside out-performance during the latter part of last week, but that the Gold/Silver ratio (now 83.4x) remains well above the 2001-to-date average of 64.8x. The Bond achieved our MRT of 158^28. The week's calendar is busy with 19 metrics due for the Econ Baro, 155 Q3 earnings reports due within the S&P 500, and the Fed's rate cut come Wednesday.
25 Oct '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Silver is the BEGOS Markets outperformer, +1.7% with a 104% EDTR tracing; no other component is remotely close, the next group of gainers being Copper, Oil and the Spoo all +0.2% on just light volatility; the Bond is off 2 pips and at 159^28 is one full point above our MRT of 158^28, the guiding daily MACD still negative. The Gold/Silver ratio at 83.2x is the lowest (per recorded closings) in a full month. Q3 Earnings Season is some 20% complete with 74% of reported bottom lines beating estimates, but only 64% actually improving; specific to the S&P 500 with 170 reporting thus far, 78% having beaten estimates, but only 71% have improved; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.7x. Oct's final UofM Sentiment read comes due for the Econ Baro.
24 Oct '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Narrowing trading ranges remain the name of the game with 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets components to this point of the session tracing less than 50% of their EDTRs, the 2 exceptions being the Bond's 55% tracing and the Euro's 79% tracing. Net changes are slight as well, ranging from Copper +0.3% to Oil -0.4%. Our MRT for the Bond of 158^28 remains intact as the MACD's daily stance stays negative. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Sep's Durable Orders and New Home Sales. Mario Draghi delivers his final post-ECB policy statement (04:45 PT) press conference at 05:30 PT.
23 Oct '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets safe haven components are mildly higher and the balance lower. Both the Bond and Gold are +0.3% and Silver is +0.1%; Oil is weakest -0.7% followed by Copper -0.3%; volatility is only light at best, as per the Market Ranges page all EDTRs continue to narrow. Still negative is the Bond's daily MACD, even with price back above 160; still, the MRT of 158^28 is in play, and per the Market Profile, 160^20 is a dominant trading resistor; as well, per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" continue to descend. At Market Rhythms, the list is rife with 28 studies, many of which are for the metals.
22 Oct '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light with the BEGOS Markets little changed either way at present: firmest is Silver +0.4% and weakest is the Swiss Franc -0.3%. At Market Ranges, EDTRs are decidedly dropping across the spectrum, a notable observation given Oct is oft considered a volatile month, (albeit there's nearly 2 weeks still to run). At Market Trends, 7 of the 8 components have their "Baby Blues" increasing: only those continuing to drop are for the Bond, the daily MACD for which is furthering its negativity with the 158^28 MRT still in play. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's Existing Home Sales.
21 Oct '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver is +1.0% as the firmest BEGOS Markets performer in starting the week: with Gold only +0.1%, the Gold/Silver ratio drops to a still very excessive 84.3x. Weakest of the bunch is Oil -0.8%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's daily MACD is working lower, the MRT of 158^28 being maintained; by Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) accelerating lower, having crossed below their 0% axis; by Market Values, the Bond is in harmony with its smooth valuation line as both trace lower together; and by its Market Magnet, the Bond shows as some 2 points "low", the most recent low extreme being better than 5 points "low" in mid-September, (all of these readings supportive of the noted MRT).
18 Oct '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil +0.7% is the BEGOS Markets upside leader whilst in mirror image the weakest is Silver -0.7%. Volatility is mostly light, underscored by the narrowing across the board of EDTRs per the Market Ranges page. Maintaining its negative bent is the Bond's daily MACD in support of our 158^28 MRT; per Market Trends, the only components with positive 21-day linreg inclinations are Copper and the Euro; and per Market Magnets, the Euro's deviation is nearly a full point (.01) "high" which may be considered "extreme", notably due to the Brexit bounce, (the agreement with the EU still having to pass Parliament). Oil's cac vol is moving from Nov into Dec. Due for the Econ Baro is Sep's Leading Indicators.
17 Oct '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: 'Tis put that the "EU and UK reach agreement on Brexit deal", which within the BEGOS Markets has effected the Euro (+0.3%) to trace 138% of its EDTR; otherwise, the volatility amongst the balance of the bunch is merely light-to-moderate. Firmest is Silver +0.7% and weakest is the Bond -0.3%, the latter's daily MACD continuing its negative track and thus the 158^28 MRT being still in place. The Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have (in real-time) reached down to their 0% axis, the 21-day linreg trend now flat toward turning negative as anticipated in yesterday's comment. The Econ Baro looks to a number of metrics including Oct's Philly Fed Index, plus Sep's Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.
16 Oct '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond +0.4% and the "unch" Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Copper -1.4% followed by Silver -1.1%; volatility is moderate. The Bond's MRT of 158^28 remains intact despite the up day as the daily MACD stays negative; also, the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends continue to drop such that the 21-day linreg trend may rotate to negative by week's end; having just confirmed as negative, too, for the Bond is its daily Price Oscillator. Sep's Retail Sales and Aug's Business Inventories come into the Econ Baro; then late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
15 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe haven components of the BEGOS Markets are little changed, but not so those more economically-driven: we've Oil -0.8%, Copper -0.6%, but the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond, for which per Market Trends is seeing its "Baby Blues" falling after having been above their +80% level, confirmed a negative crossing on the daily MACD, which (per an entry at 160^24) looks for a MRT of 158^28 ($1,900/cac by the present Market Rhythms list). Q3 Earnings Season ramps up a bit today as results from several major banks are due; due, too, for the Econ Baro are the NY State Empire Index for Oct and late in the session Sep's Treasury Budget.
14 Oct '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: With data recovered and its transmission back on go, we find the week starting with Oil -2.5%, so 'tis said given concerns over the US/China "Phase One" trade agreement. Weak, too, are Copper -0.9% and the Spoo -0.3%; gaining a bid are the Bond +0.6%, Gold +0.4% and Silver +0.3%. The Gold Update points to price, as has been told, remaining in correction mode with the potential of the 1454-1434 support shelf still viable for a test, the weekly parabolic Short trend beginning a 5th week (the flip price being 1557). Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" have kinked lower (in real-time) for the 1st day since 01 Oct, those for Gold having been meandering lower now for the 4th consecutive session.
11 Oct '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: To our valued readers: we are at present under the duress of a data transmission issue due ('twould appear) to some software "path" corruption following an automated op-sys update to the computer we use whilst traveling; we believe this is unrelated to the widespread public safety power shutoff throughout much of Northern California which has not quite reached us up here at Squaw Valley from where we'll attempt to release tomorrow's Gold Update in some limited form. Fortunately we expect to fully recover and restore all requisite data that drive our analytics and the website upon working with the desktop "workhorses" in the new week. The Econ Baro (Ex/Im Pricing and UofM Sentiment) along with the Earnings Page shall be updated today. Thanks as ever for your valued readership and patience.
10 Oct '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: No one BEGOS Market is at present changed a full percentage point either way, most of the bunch being higher led by Copper + 0.9% and the weak link being the Spoo -0.2%; volatility however is moderate-to-robust with both Copper and the Euro having traced in excess of 100% of their respective EDTRs. The Bond is making a "lower low" for the 4th consecutive session, yet its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have crossed above their +80% axis: upon their kinking back below that level, we'd anticipate still lower prices still. Sep's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
09 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: We're seeing the reverse of this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components to the upside with Oil +1.0% in the lead, followed by the Spoo +0.8%; downside safe havens are led by the Bond -0.3% followed by Gold -0.2%; volatility is moderate, save for the Spoo which has traced 105% of its EDTR. Gold's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue their stall right on the 0% axis, as had those been for the Swiss Franc, (which in real-time have dropped sub-0%). Aug's Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro; late in the session come the FOMC's minutes from their 17-18 Sep meeting.
08 Oct '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' safe haven components are higher, lead by Gold +0.7%, Silver +0.6%, and the Swiss Franc +0.4%; on the economically-driven side, Oil is -1.2% followed by the Spoo -0.6% and then Copper -0.1%; volatility is moderate. Despite the PMs getting a bit of a push, at Market Trends their "Baby Blues" respective recent upside stints are stalling. At Market Values, the primary BEGOS components are all near their respective smooth valuation line, save for Oil showing some 4 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro is Sep's PPI; Q3 Earnings Season gets underway.
07 Oct '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: The week's start finds the BEGOS Markets mixed. Firmest is Oil +0.6% whilst weakest is Silver -0.6%: volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, only the Bond and Swiss Franc (barely) are is linreg uptrends, although the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver are regaining some upside ground. The Gold Update points to price's correction sub-1500 as having been brief, but given the weekly parabolic Short trend being relatively young that the 1454-1434 support area is still viable for a test; the Gold/Silver ratio has climbed to 86.0x and the S&P's "live" P/E is 35.5x. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Aug's Consumer Credit.
04 Oct '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Ahead of Sep's jobs data we've 6 of the BEGOS Markets to the upside, led by Oil and the Swiss Franc both +0.5%; the 2 weak leaks are the Spoo and Copper both -0.4%; volatility understandably is mostly light, save for the Swiss Franc's 112% EDTR tracing. With the recent overall volatility we've not been citing any specific MRTs, however there are 27 qualified candidates at present for tracking on the list at Market Rhythms. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Aug's Trade Deficit; Powell is scheduled for opening remarks at today 's "Fed Listens" event 'round 11:00 PT.
03 Oct '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.8% and the Swiss Franc -0.3% are in the red amongst the BEGOS Markets, the firmest being Oil, but just by +0.4%, followed by the Bond, Gold and Silver all +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, that for the Bond has swung to rising: 'tis falling for the balance of the 7 other components. Although both the Bond and Spoo are marginally higher in this session, they at present have the best correlation -- which is negative -- of the 5 primary BEGOS components. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's ISM(Svcs) Index and Aug's Factory Orders.
02 Oct '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Having lost 1.4% yesterday, the Spoo is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets at present, -0.8%, followed by the Swiss Franc -0.7%; Gold +0.4% is the firmest component; volatility is moderate, save for the Swiss Franc's robust EDTR tracing of 125%. At Market Profiles, only the Bond's price is above its midpoint, whilst at Market Values the Spoo is (in real-time) crossing below its smooth valuation line; yet less negatively, the S&P's Moneyflow yesterday was down the regression-equivalent of 14 points vs. the Index itself falling 36 points; but notably on balance from a quarter ago, the Index shows as 120 points "high". Sep's ADP jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Oct '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: In kicking off Q4 'tis a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets: weakest is Copper -1.4% followed by the Bond -0.8%; firmest are Silver and Oil both +0.7%; volatility runs from light for Oil by its EDTR tracing of 32% to robust for the Bond with a 121% EDTR tracing. Despite the Bond being lower, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are the only set that are rising. Gold has traded as low as 1465 in nearing the 1454-1434 structural support area; by its Market Magnet, Gold is 34 points "low" and by its Market Value 56 points "low". Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's ISM(Mfg) Index and Aug's Construction Spending.
30 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are basically "unch" to lower, the only one barely in the black being the Spoo +0.1%; weakest is Silver -1.7% followed by Oil -1.6% and then Gold -0.6%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the precious metals' robust performance year-to-date, but again cautions for lower prices near-term, noting such technicals as Gold's Short weekly parabolic trend and negative positioning of the "Baby Blues" by Market Trends: a break sub-1490 would open the door down to the 1454-1434 structural support area. The Econ Baro starts the week with Sep's Chicago PMI.
27 Sep '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Silver -1.7% and Oil -1.4% are the BEGOS Markets' weak links whilst to the upside we've Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Gold at present is sub-1500: recall the weekly parabolic trend flipped to Short a week ago and that structural support lies in the 1454-1434 range. At Market Trends, those components with their "Baby Blues" in free-fall are Silver, Copper, Oil and the Spoo. The Gold/Silver ratio is running back up, now at 85.4x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.3x; and the Econ Baro looks to a bevy of incoming metrics including the Fed's favoured inflation gauge of the Core PCE Index for Aug along with that month's Personal Income/Spending and Durable Orders.
26 Sep '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: At present no one BEGOS Market is changed beyond 0.4% in either direction: to the upside the Bond is +0.4% and to the downside Oil is -0.4%; within those ranges, the EuroCurrencies are weak but the PMs are firm; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fresh fall whilst those for Silver move to their lowest reading (-18%) since 06 Jun. The Euro is getting quite low vis-à-vis its Market Magnet. Due for the Econ Baro are Aug's Pending Home Sales and Q2's final reading on GDP, the expectation remaining for the 2.0% annual pace.
25 Sep '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only the Bond (barely) is higher, +0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets being in the red led by Oil -0.6%, Copper -0.5%, and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility remains mostly light as Market Ranges on balance are narrowing. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have halted their fall, having dropped no lower than the -48% level before ratcheting up to (in real-time) -25%; those for Silver however remain falling and have gone sub-0%; meanwhile those for the Spoo have just dropped below the key +80 level suggestive of lower prices near-term, initial structural support at 2947 followed by 2900. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's New Home Sales.
24 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil -0.8% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, and by Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower (in real-time) for the first time since the facilities attack in Saudi Arabia: prior to that event, the "Baby Blues" whilst above their 0% axis nonetheless were weakening, thus this may be resumption of such. To the upside the Bond and Spoo both are +0.3%; volatility has backed off to light: indeed at Market Ranges, all 8 components' EDTRs are appearing toppy if not working lower. On the S&P Moneyflow page, all 3 time frames indicate the Index's level as not supported by its flow. Sep's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
23 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag in starting the week: firmest far and away is Silver +2.3%, the Gold/Silver ratio dropping from 84.4x at Fri's settle to now 82.7x, (Gold itself just +0.2%); weakest is Oil -0.9% in trading down to its lowest level (57.37) since the facilities attack in Saudi Arabia; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update points to price having risen, notably into last week's end, despite the negative technicals of the weekly parabolic trend having flipped to Short and the ongoing fall per Market Trends by the "Baby Blues". And mind that latter measure for Copper as 'tis rolling over following an ascent to no higher than +62% (vs. making it to +80%).
20 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Save for "unch" Euro, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, but not by much, the leader being Silver +0.5% followed by Gold and Oil both +0.3%; volatility is mostly light with the Swiss Franc leading the ETR tracings at 70%, but the only other component exceeding a 50% tracing being Copper at 60%. At Market Trends, wherein we've already pointed to Gold's plunging "Baby Blues", those for Silver look to cross sub-0% come Mon rendering that 21-day linreg trend as negative. No data is due today for the Econ Baro, however its upward turn these past 2 weeks appears quite pronounced, the Fed's rate cut notwithstanding.
19 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: With the anticipated 0.25% FedFunds cut and what the future may hold "as warranted" behind us -- the S&P 500finishing the session after it all +1 point -- we now find the BEGOS Markets mixed, Oil +1.4% up the most followed by the Swiss Franc +0.6%, and the Spoo and Copper both -0.2% as the weak links; volatility is light-to-moderate save for the robust movement in the Swiss Franc in tracing 130% of its EDTR. The Gold/Silver ratio which 2 weeks ago found itself sub-80x is back up to 84.6x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is a whopping 35.7x. For the Econ Baro we've Sep's Philly Fed Index, Aug's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Q2's Current Account Deficit.
18 Sep '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Fed day 'tis for a 0.25% Funds rate reduction. And for the BEGOS Markets only the Bond +0.4% and Oil +0.3% are higher; lowest is Silver -1.0% followed by Copper -0.6%; volatility not surprisingly is mostly light. Oil's (Oct) low yesterday of 58.46 was below its high last Tuesday (a week ago) of 58.76: whilst that doesn't "close the gap" to Friday's close of 54.82, it did place pricing marginally back into the recent pre-Saudi Arabia event trading area. Today, Oil's cac vol is moving from Oct into Nov and by Market Values, price is now only 3 points above its smooth valuation line as well as having snapped back to its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's Housing Starts/Permits.
17 Sep '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Not a-typically we are seeing some reversal of yesterday's moves which were significantly driven by the strike on Saudi Arabia: Oil has ceased to increase, at present -0.3% following Mon's +12.9% increase; weakest is Copper -0.9% and firmest is the Bond +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate as focus to some degree turns toward tomorrow's FOMC statement/Powell presser. Per Market Values, Oil is some 6 points above its smooth valuation line, as was the case back in Apr and as well in Oct of a year ago, price then retreating in both instances, (it "being different this time" notwithstanding). Per Market Values, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" have crossed above their -80% axis indicative of higher levels near-term. Sep's NAHB Housing Index and Aug's IndProd/CapUtil are due for the Econ Baro.
16 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: "Facts, Hercule, Facts!" Circumventing the media exaggeration, let's update the directionally-anticipated BEGOS Markets gaps post-Saudi Arabia oil facility drone strikes. Oil is +8.6% (not "20%"), Silver is +2.4%, and Gold is +1.0%; the balance of the bunch are changed by less than 1.0% either way at present; further, save for Oil's EDTR tracing of 232%, volatility by the EDTR tracings is moderate, not unlike many other days. Those are the facts. The Gold Update points to our "aggressive" high of 1526 for this year as having become the "centerpiece" price 'round which trading has oscillated for the last month, (see the chart therein). Due for the Econ Baro in starting the week is Sep's NY State Empire Index.
13 Sep '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: A busy session for the BEGOS Markets as the EuroCurrencies roll their cac vol from Sep into Dec as does that for the Spoo; the Econ Baro looks to 6 inputs including Sep's UofM Sentiment, Aug's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, plus Jul's Business Inventories. And only the Bond -0.4% is in the red, the firmest component being Copper +1.0% followed by the Spoo +0.5%: the latter at 1322 is just 7 points from its all-time high of 1329 (26 Jul) and per Market Trends has the best upside 21-day linreg consistency by the "Baby Blues", albeit per Market Values, price (in real-time) is showing as some 91 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; the S&P's "live" P/E is 35.9x.
12 Sep '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Within the hour at 04:45 PT comes an ECB policy statement expected to further reduced its already negative lending rate, potentially embark on a new QE path, and perhaps adjust member banks' reserve requirements; Draghi speaks at 05:30 PT. Ahead of this, all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil -1.1%, are higher, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper +1.6%, Silver +0.5% and Gold +0.4%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper's EDTR tracing being 122%. From the Market Rhythms page, Oil's 2-hr. EMA (corrected from MACD) signals have been sporting profitable follow-through. Aug's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Sep '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Silver +0.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.5% and then Oil + 0.3%; the Eurocurrencies are the mild weak links and volatility is light-to- moderate. The PMs' upward day is within the near-term milieu of their "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) extending their declines, those for Gold specifically confirming (as noted yesterday) the 21-day linreg trend swinging from positive to negative: currently 1501, there is structural support for Gold at 1467. The Econ Baro looks to Aug's PPI and Jul's Wholesale Inventories.
10 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets have a downside bias, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper -0.7%, Silver -0.5% and Gold -0.4%; firmest is Oil +0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold/Silver Ratio is 83.3x and the "live" P/E of the S&P is 35.3x. At Market Trends the PMs "Baby Blues" are increasing their downside pace, sufficiently so that Gold's 21-day linreg trend may turn negative by tomorrow; price has traded below the 1500 level (1495 low) for the first time since 13 August. At Market Values, Gold has returned to sit (in real-time) precisely on its smooth valuation line after being better than 100 points above it 2 weeks ago.
09 Sep '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: A comparatively less-volatile session to the begin the week this time 'round for the BEGOS Markets, EDTR tracings ranging from 68% for Silver down to just 21% for the Spoo. Both the Spoo and Gold are +0.2% whilst the weak link is the Bond -0.5%. The Gold Update paints a bit of a near-term negative picture for the PMs as by Market Trends their respective "Baby Blues" have moved below the key +80% axis level, Silver's price late in the week dropping at nearly triple the rate of Gold's pullback. Due late in today's session for the Econ Baro is Jul's Consumer Credit.
06 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: From Silver's week-to-date high on Wed at 19.75, price has plummeted as much as 8.2%, this session's low thus far at 18.12; the white metal's net change for today at present is -2.8%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Oil -1.7%; only the Spoo +0.4% is higher. Volatility ranges from light for the Spoo by its 31% EDTR tracing to robust for Silver by its 135% tracing. The Gold/Silver ratio having fallen sub-80 earlier in the week is now back up at 83.0x. The "live" P/E for the S&P is 36.0x, and given the Spoo's EDTR is 50 points, a strong up day could near the all-time high of 3029. 'Course, in the balance for it all is the Econ Baro's Aug jobs daat, the consensus for which is payroll creation of 145k, below both the 12-month average of 192k and the level a year ago of 270k.
05 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with mostly moderate volatility, the upside leaders being Copper +1.0% and the Spoo +0.9%, the downside being led by Silver -1.9% followed by Gold -0.7%: as noted yesterday, Silver has joined Gold by the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having slipped below their respective +80% axes. At Market Values, despite the Spoo's current strength, price has only just returned up to meeting (in real-time) its smooth valuation line; (obviously the S&P itself remains excessively expensive, the "live" P/E at 35.7x). Much is due for the Econ Baro including Aug's ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svcs) Index, Jul's Factory Orders, and the revision to Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
04 Sep '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only Gold -0.7% and the Bond -0.2% are negative amongst the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +1.5% followed by Oil +1.2% and then the Spoo +0.8%; volatility spans from light for Oil with just a 38% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 110% tracing. The Gold/Silver ratio is 79.6x, (live reading): it has not posted a settle that low since 10 August 2018. At Market Trends, despite Silver being higher (+0.2%), its "Baby Blues" have joined those for Gold in slipping below the key +80% axis, such rule being a harbinger of lower price levels near-term. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Trade Deficit; late in the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
03 Sep '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Updating this 2-day GLOBEX session finds Copper -2.2% the weakest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Oil -2.0% and then the Spoo -0.7%; firmest are the PMs with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.6%; overall session volatility is moderate-to-robust, the widest EDTR tracers being Copper at 181% and the Euro at 128%. As noted yesterday, despite Gold being firm, its "Baby Blues" by Market Trends are working lower; indeed those for the EuroCurrencies are outright plummeting, the Euro trading below the 1.10 level for the first time since May 2017. Aug's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jul's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro; Vehicle Sales roll in as the session proceeds.
02 Sep '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session (for settle tomorrow given the Stateside physical bourses' holiday today) finds the Spoo "unch" following a material gap-down opening extending to as much as -31 points (-1.0%) on weekend TariffTalk for China, Gold in turn gapping up to as much as 1544 before being presently +0.3% at 1534. The Gold Update points to Silver's up-streak out-pacing Gold, but that the white metal may lose her grip should the yellow slip as its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are lower yet again. Still, Gold is the session's firmest BEGOS Market, the weakest being Copper -0.5%, and volatility is moderate, likely to become more robust given Tuesday's full session in waiting.
30 Aug '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo +0.7% and Silver +0.5% are in the black (an unusual pairing), the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets to the downside, the weakest being Oil -1.2% and the Bond and Swiss Franc both -0.3%; volatility is mostly light, save for Silver having traced 99% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) slipped to +81%: a break below +80% would suggest lower prices ahead, as we've been anticipating for Gold, such slide not having been made manifest despite of the "Baby Blues" continuing to slip there (now down to +69% in real-time). A bevy of data is due for the Econ Baro including Aug's Chi PMI and Jul's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation read.
29 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Gold and the EuroCurrencies are lower by some -0.1% to -0.2% with the balance of the BEGOS Bunch in the black led by the Spoo +1.1% and then Silver and Copper both +0.9%, (the Gold/Silver ratio having eroded to 83.0x, albeit still extremely high by historical standards). Session volatility is mostly moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. Gold's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have again inched lower as price nonetheless remains (in real-time) some 87 points above its smooth valuation line at Market Values. The Bond's cac vol is rolling from Sep into Dec. The Econ Baro looks to the 2nd of Q2 GDP's 3 readings plus Jul's Pending Home Sales.
28 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is again comparatively light vis-à-vis the recent EDTR increases, and save for Silver +0.7%, net changes at present are mild, the balance of the bunch differing by just 0.0% to 0.2%. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are lower for their 7th straight session, price itself having not let materially go to the downside. At Market Values, Gold's distance above its smooth valuation line is (in real-time) 100 points "high", as is the Bond nearly 10 points "high": both such positions are extreme relative to past readings. Cac vol for both Silver and Copper is moving from Sep into Dec.
27 Aug '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss Franc -0.1%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, the firmest being Oil +1.1% followed by the Bond and Silver both +0.4%; volatility is light -- within the context that per Market Ranges -- EDTRs have expanded over the last month. The Spoo's daily EMA has negatively crossed: this is quite a ponderous study (the crossover being just the 8th in nearly 3 years) which per the current Market Rhythms list can lead to substantive profits; however cash management is vital if following this one (as it ought be with all signals). Aug's Consumer Confidence is due for the Econ Baro.
26 Aug '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Significant volatility marks the start of the week for the BEGOS Markets with 6 of the 8 components having already traced in excess of their daily EDTRs. Safe haven products gapped higher, Gold notably to a 6-year high at 1565 before reversing to as low as 1535, whilst the Spoo fell to 2810 before reversing up to 2888. Firmest at present are Oil and Silver, both +1.2%, whilst weakest is the Swiss Franc -0.5%. The Gold Update points to dip-wariness given price's "Baby Blues" have slipped below their +80% axis (see Market Trends), but that the overall picture remains positive. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's Durable Orders.
23 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of Powell's address in Jackson Hole (07:00 PT): up the most is the Spoo +0.4% and down the most is the Swiss Franc -0.4%; volatility not surprisingly is mostly light. As anticipated by Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) dropped below their +80% level, confirmation of which come day's end technically portends lower prices near-term, (typically within a month); still, Gold's firmness these past three months has of course been driven more by a fundamental awakening. Coincident with the Fed Chair's address are Jul's New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.
22 Aug '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for Oil +0.4% and the Bond "unch", the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver -0.9%, followed by Copper -0.8% and Gold -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro leading the EDTR tracings at 91%; least rangy is the Spoo with just a 35% tracing. Market Values finds Gold's "Baby Blues" lower yet again, the real-time reading being +81%: +80% is the arbitrary line-in-the-sand between maintaining a firm uptrend vs. its consistency breaking apart. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Leading Indicators.
21 Aug '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Like yesterday, BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the only EDTR tracing exceeding 50% to this point being that by the Bond at 69%. But in mirror to yesterday, the economically-driven components are the winners, led by Oil +1.2% and the Spoo +0.8%; the safe havens are the losers with the Bond and Gold both -0.4%. The latter's "Baby Blues per Market Trends have again notched lower (at +86% in real-time). By the Market Values page, both the Bond and Gold still appear as quite "high" whilst the Spoo shows as 100 points "low", (notwithstanding the excessively high "live" P/E at 33.5x as low interest rates proliferate). Jul's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro; the FOMC's 30-31 Jul meeting minutes arrive late in the session.
20 Aug '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Comparable "quiet" describes the BEGOS Markets given volatility is light, (again within the context that EDTRs have notably increased per the Market Ranges page). Still by net change, the safe havens are the leaders, firmest being Silver +0.9% followed by Gold +0.8% and the Bond +0.5%; the economically-driven components are the losers, the weakest being Copper -0.8%; that noted, per Market Trends the red metal's "Baby Blues" are commencing an upward curl. Those for the yellow metal have (in real-time) kinked lower, albeit they're still above the +80% level: nonetheless, a key level to mind over the ensuing days, which if downside-eclipsed would portend lower prices.
19 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo +1.0% and Copper +0.9% are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders to begin the week, one for which Econ Baro inflow is sparse and the highlight of which is the Fed with its 30-31 Jul meeting minutes (Wed) and Powell at Jackson Hole (Fri). The PMs (not surprisingly per The Gold Update) are pulling back, Silver -1.3% and Gold -0.9%. Volatility is mostly moderate. Yields are rising for the 2nd straight day, albeit the Market Values page still finds the Bond some 9 points "high" and Gold some 90 points "high". Our finalized Q2 Earnings Season page depicts just 53% of 2,070 reporting companies having bettered their bottom lines over Q2 of a year ago.
16 Aug '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: For the BEGOS Markets 'tis up with those economically-driven and down with those of safe haven status: the upside leader is Oil +1.4% whilst weakest is Gold -0.8%; tomorrow's Gold Update shall review why we selected 1526 as a high for this year, price having since been stuck right 'round that price. Session volatility is moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Sep into Oct. Copper at 2.5950 is smack on its most dominant Market Profile price for the past two weeks. The Econ Baro closes out a busy week with Aug's UofM Sentiment and Jul's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 Aug '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility in the context of the ramped-up EDTRs (see Market Ranges) is moderate. Firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.6% and weakest is Oil -1.5%. Yesterday's selling in stocks was sufficient to move the "live" P/E of the S&P down to (a still extremely expensive) 32.2x; per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) reads as 148 points "low"; by Market Magnets 'tis 62 points "low" albeit 'twas 141 points "low" as of 05 Aug; and by Market Trends, the Spoo's descending "Baby Blues" real-time reading is -65%, (i.e. we'd expect -80% in the balance). For the Econ Baro we've a busy day: 10 metrics are due, highlighted by expectations for slowing in Aug's Fed (NY and Philly) surveys, as well as in both Jul's Retail Sales and Q2's Productivity.
14 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The StateSide 2-yr. yield has provisionally moved above that of the 10-yr.; Germany's annualized Q2 GDP pace comes in at -0.1%. The economic components of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Oil and Copper both -1.4%, the safe have components are higher led by the Bond +1.2%; save for the Bond's 106% EDTR tracing, volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo (at present 2905) by its Market Profile is centered across its past two weeks trading range, the key overhead resistor being 2928. Jul's Ex/Im pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
13 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets leaders with Silver +2.1% and Gold +1.0%, (their respective ratio thus dropping to 88.4x, albeit still extremely high by historical standards, the average from 2001-to-date being 64.6x). Weakest is the Spoo, but by just -0.2%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust. Gold yesterday reached our "aggressive" forecast high of 1526 and thus far in this session has traded up to 1546; by Market Values, today Gold shows as 130 points "high" and the Bond as nearly 10 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jul's CPI.
12 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The biggest moves at present to start the week are in mirror form, the Bond +0.7% and the Spoo -0.7%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold is higher, Silver is lower, in turn pushing the Gold/Silver ratio back up to 89.5x. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal not having quite (yet) reached our "aggressive" forecast high of 1526, but this could be an area of consternation (as was after the case of achieving 1434 for some 5 weeks); as well, the Market Values page shows Gold being some 100 points "high". A busy week of 18 incoming metrics begins for the Econ Baro with Jul's Treasury Budget late in the session.
09 Aug '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Toward week's end we've further slowing in the volatility of the BEGOS Markets, again relative to the recent Market Ranges increases; only two components at this reading have exceeded 50% of the EDTR tracings: Silver at 56% and Oil at 54%; narrowest is the Spoo at 38%, although it is the only market in the red at -0.7%; firmest is Oil at +0.7%. Still, given yesterday's equities rise, the Spoo rather swiftly reached the 2916.25 MRT as was signaled by the 6-hr. MACD. With a week to run in Q2 Earnings Season, only 64% of the S&P 500 constituents having bettered their Q2 of a year ago. Jul's PPI comes into the Econ Baro.
08 Aug '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is slowing, albeit that is relative to Market Ranges having notably increased of late: the EDTR with the most tracing thus far this session is 66% for both the Bond and Copper, (the first day this week with no tracings having exceed 100% 'round this time). Up the most are both the Bond and Spoo, +0.2%: off the most is Oil -0.6% followed by Silver -0.5%. The Spoo's 6-hr. MACD signaled to the LongSide (at 12:00 yesterday from 2884.25) for an MRT of 2916.25 ($1,600/cac). Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Wholesale Inventories.
07 Aug '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Gold +1.1% is trading above the 1500 level for the 1st time since 12 April 2013; strongest of the BEGOS Markets is Silver +2.4% at 16.850; weakest is Oil -0.3%; volatility again is moderate-to-robust; mind the Market Ranges page for noting increasing EDTRs. At Market Values, Gold's (real-time) reading is nearly 100 points "high", apropos of a this being a true breakout vs. overvaluation of a still very undervalued asset. The Dollar is torn between a rising Yen and falling EuroCurrencies. Late in the session the Econ Baro looks to Jun's Consumer Credit.
06 Aug '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: From "worst to first" goes the Spoo, at present +1.1% with China eliciting a reference point for its currency; the Bond -0.4% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" continue to ratchet down, whilst those for Gold despite price's upside session yesterday have (in real-time) kinked lower. As described in The Gold Update, price need firm 'round the 1490 level for us to run with our "aggressive" forecast high for this year of 1526. Silver was not as strong yesterday as was Gold, evidenced by the Gold/Silver ratio now back above 90x.
05 Aug '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: China's currency weakening is boosting the PMs, Silver +1.7% and Gold +0.3%; The Gold Update cautions for some pullback in Silver (structural support in the mid-15s) given the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends having dropped below their +80% (which generally leads to lower levels), something of which to be aware once this geo-political event falls from the headlines. Off the most is the Spoo -1.6%. Volatility is robust, save for Oil which has traced but 47% of its EDTR. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 Aug '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility remains ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, this session's EDTR tracings thus far ranging from 59% for the Spoo to 133% for the Bond. Up the most at present is Oil +1.6% and down the most is Silver -0.8%. 'Course all these alacritive swings are in the wake of the FedFunds cut and TariffTalk: earnings get little mention anymore, our "live" P/E of the S&P still very expensive at 35.5x; as for Q2 Earnings Season, of the 350 S&P 500 companies having reported, 66% have bettered their their bottom lines vs. Q2 of a year ago. A heavy dose (9 metrics) of incoming data hits the Econ Baro today, highlighted by Jul's payrolls and Jun's Trade Deficit.
01 Aug '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.4%, today post-Fed we've nothing but red, obviously meaning the Dollar continues getting the bid. And the PMs are paying the price for this "mid-cycle" FedFunds rate cut with Silver -1.8%, followed by Gold -0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The selling in the PMs these last 2 sessions has kinked the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) lower for both metals, those for Silver in real-time below their +80% level such that we'd look for further fallout there. Jul's ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending come into the Econ Baro.
31 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Silver -0.6% has encountered reasonable profit taking considering how well the white metal has done of late, the present price of 16.490 on this final day of Jul being +8.7% from where it settled back on 01 Jul (15.175): 'tis the weakest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are fairly muted with the Fed's 0.25% rate cut/FOMC statement/Powell presser in the balance; volatility is light. The Euro's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have begun (albeit almost imperceptibly) to turn up from their -80%, price in a mild rise these last 4 trading sessions. Due for the Econ Baro are Jul's ADP jobs data and the Chi PMI, plus Q2's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jul '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper -0.8% and the Spoo -0.3% are the downside standouts at present, whilst to the upside 'tis Oil +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the biggest EDTR range tracer being Copper at 82%, but with those for the other two metals and Oil just in the 30% range. Volume for Gold is moving from the Aug cac to that for Dec with a "contango" of +13 points, which as pointed out in The Gold Update is the largest Aug/Dec rollover difference since at least 2001, suggesting bullishness. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Consumer Confidence, plus Jun's Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, as well as Core PCE Inflation, the FOMC's favoured such measure as they commence their 2-day policy meeting today.
29 Jul '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Little changed on light volatility are the BEGOS Markets, the Bond up the most at +0.2% and both the Euro and Oil the weakest -0.1%. The current list on the Market Rhythms page is 15 studies, however none per Fri's EOD run had triggered. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's state of basically flatlining these past two week, as well as the white metal's recent surge having slowed. The Fed's 0.25% rate cut (come Wed) has been priced into the FedFundsFutures for some time (the statement and presser notwithstanding); still the Econ Baro looks to 18 incoming metrics as the week unfolds.
26 Jul '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed ahead of the Econ Baro getting its 1st peek at Q2 GDP: Oil +0.8% is again the biggest gainer, the weakest component at present being Copper -0.5%; volatility is light, underscoring the focus on the GDP release. Despite the Spoo reaching a record high yesterday, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have (in real-time) kinked to their lowest level (+53%) since 20 June; the Spoo is 50 points (per Market Values) above its smooth valuation line and the P/E of the S&P remains excessively (understatement) high at 32.4x.
25 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is up the most of the BEGOS Markets with Copper 2nd most +0.6%; Silver -0.4% is the weakest of the bunch, (Gold is "unch"); volatility is light-to-moderate. Our MRT of 153^09 is nixed for the Bond as the 6-hr. MACD has turned back up on itself, and by Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have moved into a sideways stuttering pattern. Across the 8 components, only Oil's Baby Blues are accelerating lower. Jun's Durable Orders come due for the Econ Baro, and the ECB announces it policy stance followed by Draghi's press conference.
24 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver +0.8% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Gold +0.6%; weakest is Oil -0.5%; volatility again is mostly moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is lower still to 86.2x, (obviously still extremely high by its historical standard). Per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" which have been falling for some 3 weeks have kinked higher in real-time, the overall 21-day linreg trend still mildly up; the blue dots for Silver, of course, turned up better than a week back. The Bond has triggered 2 MRTs to the ShortSide, one being the 12-hr. Price Oscillator, the other being the 6-hr. MACD: our preference is for the latter, which from 154^09 signal price targets 153^09 ($1,000/cac per the present Market Rhythms list). Jun's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Save for Silver and the Spoo, both +0.3%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are in the red, but not overly so, the weakest being Oil -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate. Recall that earlier this month, all 8 components had been in 21-day linreg uptrends: now per the Market Trends page, 4 of those are down, namely for the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Oil. By Market Values, both the Bond and Euro are relatively "low" vis-à-vis their typical distance from their respective smooth valuation lines. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Existing Home Sales.
22 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver and Oil, both +1.1%, lead the BEGOS Markets into the new week; Copper -0.3% is the weak link; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes Silver's gearing up toward catching up to Gold, (the yellow metal last week rising 0.6%, but the white metal gaining 6.5%), their ratio in turn dropping from its recent high of 93x to now 87x, (the average since 2001 being 65x). The Spoo is +0.5%, however its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating their decline; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 32.3x; thus far in Q2 Earnings season, 60 of the S&P 500 constituents have reported with 75% having beaten estimates, but less so, 68% having actually improved over Q2 of a year ago.
19 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Copper has been the BEGOS Market's big winner this session: presently +1.6%, 'tis traded as high as 2.7775, nearly 3¢ above our "guesstimate high if an up day" (from the webpage) of 2.7495 and had traced 151% of the EDTR. Only Oil +0.8% also is in the black; Gold -0.7% is weakest of the bunch, followed by the Euro -0.4% and then Silver -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold (at present 1438) made a marginal high for the at 1454 in concert following the reported Iranian drone downing by the US, such geo-political news swiftly falling from the FinMedia radar (and as is noted in The Gold Update "...the mid-1400s were fraught with all kinds of trading consternation from April into May of 2013"). UofM's Jul Sentiment Survey comes due for the Econ Baro.
18 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo reached the "guarded" MRT of 2980.75: price has steadied (+0.1%) in the new session, albeit per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" in real-time have notably dropped below their +80% axis (to +72%), indicative of lower prices near-term term. Otherwise the rest of BEGOS Markets again are mixed with Oil +1.1% the firmest, and Gold -0.6% the weakest; Silver however is +0.4%, marking a 4th consecutive session ('round this hour) of it being higher whilst Gold is lower. Volatility is moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Aug into Sep. The Econ Baro looks to Jul's Philly Fed Index and Jun's Leading Indicators.
17 Jul '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Spoo's 8-hr. MACD confirmed a negative cross (yesterday at 16:00 PT) from that period's opening of 3006.75: per the Market Rhythms list, that gives us an MRT of 2980.75 ($1,300/cac), however we're guarded on this one given the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) recently regained the +80% level. 'Tis a mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets with Copper, the Swiss Franc and Gold all a bit down, with the balance up. the most so being Oil +0.8%; this is the 3rd straight session which finds Gold lower and Silver higher, their ratio slipping sub-90x to 89.7x, (still extremely high, historically). Session volatility is again light-to-moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Housing Starts/Permits.
16 Jul '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: As we type, the Spoo is "unch", even as "big bank" earnings have been reported; Oil +0.6% is the BEGOS Markets best performer, the weakest being the Euro -0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Whilst not "officially" a BEGOS component, the Yen has been producing very nice intra-day swings by its various of the Market Rhythm technical studies we follow (2-hr. Parabolics, 1-hr. MACD, etc.). Per yesterday's comment, the EuroCurrencies' 21-day linreg trends are now down with Copper looking like the next one to so turn. 'Tis a busy session for the Econ Baro as it looks to Jul's NAHB Housing Index, Jun's Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and IndProd/CapUtil, as well as May's Business Inventories.
15 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: In the worst case for the BEGOS Markets, the Bond, Euro, Gold and Oil all are "unch" in to this point in the new week; up the most is Copper +0.9% followed by Silver +0.7%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes price having gone nowhere through the past two weeks beyond being choppy despite the underlying headlines hype. Per our prior comment, the Bond's 21-day linreg trend is now down; as well by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are notably falling for the precious metals and the EuroCurrencies. Jul's NY Empire State Index comes into the Econ Baro.
12 Jul '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Today, only Oil -0.1% is lower, the best BEGOS Markets performers being the Swiss Franc and Copper, both +0.5%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, all 8 components had been in 21-day linreg uptrends for nearly three weeks (some since early May), however the first to have cracked is the Euro, with the Bond not far behind, the latter albeit some 5 points below its smooth valuation line per Market Values. As for MRTs, a couple have triggered to the Long side: for Oil (daily Parabolics) and the Spoo (8-hr. MACD); but with both markets appearing "high" by various measures, we're purposely overlooking them. The Econ Baro looks to Jun's PPI.
11 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only Copper -0.1% is lower amongst the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of which is Oil +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Rub not thy eyes, the Spoo really is trading in the 3000s, the "live" P/E for the S&P now up to 33.4x: mind our Earnings Season link as those for Q2 unfold. Despite Chair Powell's dovish lean (he today facing the Senate Banking Committee), the Bond is not recovering from its recent slide, and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating their fall. An expected benign CPI for Jun comes due for the Econ Baro as does that month's Treasury Budget.
10 Jul '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: A double dose of Fed as Chair Powell begins the 2-day testimony (today before the House Financial Services Committee) followed by the FOMC's 18/19 June meeting minutes. Ahead of this finds Oil + 1.3% and Copper +1.1, the EuroCurrencies barely up, and the balance of the bunch lower, the Bond being both the weakest -0.4% and the most rangy with a 105% EDTR tracing; otherwise volatility is moderate. Per Market Ranges, those for all 8 components are either ticking lower or outright falling. The Econ Baro looks to May's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Jul '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only Oil +0.7% is higher amongst the BEGOS Markets, the weakest of which is Copper -1.2% followed by Gold -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond's "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) have confirmed dropping below their +80 axis, suggestive of still lower prices near-term. Including the Spoo in real-time, all 8 component's "Baby Blues" are now in decline: some catalytic down-push may result from Chair Powell's 2-day Congressional testimony which begins tomorrow. Otherwise, the Gold/Silver ratio is 92.5x, the S&P's "live" P/E is 32.8x, and the Econ Baro continues its dive.
08 Jul '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As had been noted on the Markets Rhythms page, its daily updating is now in effect: attractive candidates at present include Copper's daily EMA, Oil's daily Moneyflow, the S&P (Spoo's) daily EMA, and the Swiss' daily EMA. Specific to starting the new week, only the metals triumvirate is higher, led by Copper +0.6%, the Bond is "unch' and the weakest component is Oil -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update emphasizes our ongoing expectation for near-term churn; it also notes the continued "record" divergence between the rising S&P and declining Econ Baro, as well as citing all 8 BEGOS Markets being in 21-day linreg uptrends, but our being wary of several "Baby Blues" tracks running out of puff. Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro and Q2 Earnings Season begins.
05 Jul '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 2-day GLOBEX session continues for the BEGOS Markets, the "once above 3000" Spoo now in the red as are all 8 components, the weakest being Copper -1.2%, followed by Oil -1.0% and Silver -0.6%; volatility is moderate. With weakening German Factory Orders and a buzz of ECB stimulus easing in the air, the Euro has traded down to its lowest level (1.13190) since 20 June. Still, all of the BEGOS bunch are in 21-day linreg uptrends: however, the "Baby Blues" (per Market Trends) are dropping for the EuroCurrencies, Silver, Copper and Oil. Jun's payrolls data comes into the Econ Baro.
04 Jul '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: What a milestone StateSide for the "4th of July": the Spoo for the 1st time ever is trading at 3000, indeed as high as 3006. Bourses are closed here but the BEGOS Markets nonetheless work their 2-day session for Fri settle: weakest is Oil -0.4% followed by Copper -0.3%; up the most is the Bond +0.2%. Not unexpectedly, volatility is rather light, albeit Oil has traced 60% of its EDTR. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl down, price essentially unable to break above what we've viewed a month or so ago as structural resistance in this 57-60s area.
03 Jul '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Only Silver and Copper, both -0.2%, are lower, the balance of the BEGOS Markets finding Oil +0.8% the firmest: volatility is moderate. Gold briefly re-tapped the 1440s only to have since succumbed to the 1420s: the yellow metal has traced 92% of its EDTR, surpassed only by Silver's 99% tracing; of note, the G/S ratio is up to 93.3x. For Jun, ADP jobs data and the ISM(Svc) Index come due for the Econ Baro as do May's Trade's Deficit and Factory Orders. The Spoo has an abbreviated session (to 10:15 PT) whilst the other BEGOS components go the usual distance, followed by the 15:00 opening for the whole bunch. (StateSide's Independence Day tomorrow sees a trading halt between 10:00-15:00 PT).
02 Jul '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The PMs are the BEGOS Markets firmest components with Gold +0.6% and Silver +0.2%, (the latter still sufficiently lagging by price given the G/S ratio at 91.8x); Copper -0.4% is weakest and volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, both the Euro and Spoo confirmed their "Baby Blues" crossing below their +80% axes yesterday, suggestive of lower levels near-term, (the "live" P/E of the S&P is 32.7x); in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" too are sub their +80 axis, whilst by Market Values, price shows as some 66 points "high". The Econ Baro looks to Jun's Vehicle Sales.
01 Jul '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil +2.8% is the BEGOS Markets' biggest gainer whilst Gold -- which gapped down 12 points to start the session -- is the largest loser -1.4%; volatility is moderate, although the Swiss Franc has traced 100% of its EDTR. The Gold Update and recent Commentary posts have cited the yellow metal as being some 100 points "high" vis-à-vis our Market Values measure; the current missive looks to Gold's consolidating to allow such stretched technicals to "catch up". Jun's ISM(Mfg) and May's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro.
28 Jun '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Similar to yesterday at this time, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way: Gold and Oil are the furthest from their respective get-gos, both +0.3%; volatility remains light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" confirmed crossing below their +80% axis such that a move near-term from these lower 15s down into the upper 14s would be typical of how prior like crossings have played out. Gold is moving back towards its lower Market Magnet, however by Market Values, price is still some 100 points "high". A bevy a metrics arrive for the Econ Baro, including Jun's Chicago PMI and May's Personal Income/Spending data, which includes the Fed's favoured inflation read per the Core CPE Price Index.
27 Jun '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for Oil -0.6%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility again is light-to-moderate. In real-time, Silver's "Baby Blues" have crossed below their +80% level: should this be the state come close, the notion is to look for lower prices near-term; the white metal at present is 15.28 (Sep), the key underling support band spanning 15.23 to 14.70; by the Market Profile, 14.95 and 14.80 are substantive volume price points. For Gold at present 1408, its Profile supporters are 1401 and 1387, the most important underlying level of course being Base Camp 1377. The Econ Baro looks to Q1's final GDP revision and May's Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold, having yesterday traded as high as 1442 is the session's weakest BEGOS Market component, -1.3%: per the prior 2 comments and The Gold Update, Gold has been in extreme "high" territory per both Market Values and Market Magnets; Gold is also leading the EDTR tracings at 108%, volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise light-to-moderate: the Spoo is up the most at +0.4%. Cac volume for Copper is moving from Jul into Sep and tomorrow ought bring same for Silver. May's Durable Orders com into the Econ Baro.
25 Jun '19, 05:40 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Gold has traded up through our "conservative" forecast high for this year (of 1434) to 1436; as noted in The Gold Update, we shall reassess our "aggressive" forecast for 1526. Early on, session volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest being Gold +0.8% mirrored by Oil being the weakest -0.8%. Again, very near-term Gold is excessively upside-stretched by both Market Values and Magnets. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Consumer Confidence and May's New Home Sales.
24 Jun '19, 11:52 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week comparably subdued, volatility running light-to-moderate with no significant net changes at present: up the most is Oil +0.5% and off the most is Copper -0.2%. The Gold Update highlights price's having finally broken above Base Camp 1377 as the most significant breakout in recent years, Gold at present 1409 with our "conservative" forecast high for this year of 1434 in the balance. Still, Gold's swift move up sees it as near-term stretched by both the Market Values and Market Magnets pages, but as bullish nonetheless for the broader term.
21 Jun '19, 14:57 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit less rangy thus far, albeit both PMs have traced much more than 100% of their respective EDTRs, namely Gold whilst just +0.4% has a 174% tracing, the high of 1415 only 19 points from our "conservative" forecast high for the year (1434); Silver -0.6% has a 157% tracing; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. The white metal as so often we've seen for better than a year remains lacking the yellow metal in pricing pace such that the present Gold/Silver ratio is 91.2x. Meanwhile the "live" P/E for the record high S&P is 32.5x,the Index's level extremely high by so many measures including its juxtaposition to the Econ Baro for which today is due May's Existing Home Sales.
20 Jun '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: Gold is the story: following a purported Iran firing on a US drone, the price of Gold went up like a rocket shot, eclipsing Base Camp 1377 for the first time in three years and then -- upon which we've opined many times --in came the mo-mo traders in driving the price as high as 1397 (+2.4%); at present 'tis +1.6% at 1387; 246% of Gold's EDTR has been traced; more on this material Gold move in the upcoming Sat edition of The Gold Update. All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black , the Dollar being down (no surprise); volatility on balance is robust across the board. Jun's Philly Fed Index, May's Leading Indicators and Q1's Current Account Balance are due for the Econ Baro.
19 Jun '19, 12:52 Central Euro Time: Stateside 'tis FedDay: the consensus is for no FedFunds rate change (current target range being 2.25%-2.50%), albeit the FedFundsFuts are suggesting a rate closer to 2.00%; given such, should there be "no change", debt prices may fall to higher yields. For the moment, the Bond's price is indeed lower -0.3%, as similarly are the metals triumvirate and Oil; the EuroCurrencies are getting a mild bid; session volatility is light-to-moderate. As well, the Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have moved below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels near-term.
18 Jun '19, 14:26 Central Euro Time: Save for the Euro -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are up, led by the metals triumvirate with Copper +0.9% and both Gold and Silver +0.8%; volatility is light-to-robust, with Oil tracing but 26% of its EDTR whilst the Euro had traced 103% and the Bond 145%. At Market Trends, mind Oil's "Baby Blues": they are curling up, albeit from still below the -80% axis; however by Market Values, price is some 10 points low, all such that we expect some near-term rally for Oil; as well, Oil's cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. May's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
17 Jun '19, 14:19 Central Euro Time: The current edition of The Gold Update, No. 500, depicts the extremes of the S&P 500's valuation vs. its lack of earnings substance, the diabolical levels of the 3Ds of Debasement, Debt and Derivatives, and overblown condition of the Gold/Silver ratio (the "live: reading at present being 90.4x) all of having becoming "the norm". As to today, Oil -0.9% is the BEGOS Markets weakest component whilst firmest (barely) is the Euro +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's NY State Empire Index and the NAHB's Index.
14 Jun '19, 14:50 Central Euro Time: Silver +1.3% is the leader amongst the otherwise mixed BEGOS Markets, which finds Copper -0.5% the weakest of the bunch; Oil, despite the tanker issues in the Gulf is actually -0.1% and the narrowest-traded component with an EDTR tracing of just 46%; rangiest is Gold's 127% tracing. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are higher still albeit price has yet to follow suit as we expect it shall, (proper cash management notwithstanding). Cac volume for the EuroCurrencies is moving from Jun into Sep, as is that for the Spoo. Quite a dose of incoming data is arriving for the Econ Baro, including Jun's UofM Sentiment, May's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, plus Apr's Business Inventories.
13 Jun '19, 11:49 Central Euro Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets big winner to this point, +3.0%; its has traced 105% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is moderate. Only Copper is in the red, -0.5%, albeit at one point the Spoo (at present +0.3%) was -0.5%. The red metal yesterday confirmed its "Baby Blues" crossing above their -80%, generally suggestive of higher levels near-term, despite today's weakness. Of note, US spending through eight months of its fiscal year exceeded $3 trillion for the very 1st time. May's Ex/Im pricing comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Jun '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: A mirror image of what we had at this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' safe haven components getting the bid at the expense of those economically-driven, the biggest wallop hitting Copper -2.5%; the PMs are being benefited the most with Gold +0.7% and Silver +0.5%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo -0.4% nonetheless finds its Market Market at +70 which is an extremely high reading; per Market Trends, the Spoo's ascending "Baby Blues" are stalling having come up to the center 0% axis. The Econ Baro looks to May's CPI and Treasury Budget.
11 Jun '19, 12:30 Central Euro Time: Similar to this point yesterday, the BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components are getting the bid, led by Copper +0.8% and then Oil +0.6% and the Spoo +0.4%; the balance of the bunch are essentially flat-to-lower with Gold per the Update looking to "fail from the same place" off the most at -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, mind the Bond's "Baby Blues" as they appear poised to fall through their +80% level, which in turn would be indicative of lower prices near-term. Due for the Econ Baro is May's PPI.
10 Jun '19, 12:23 Central Euro Time: MexTariffTalk subduing finds the BEGOS Markets' safe haven components getting sold, the weakest being Silver -1.9% and Gold -0.9%: The Gold Update warns of the yellow metal running out of puff in this same area (1240s-1260s) as it has so repeatedly done over the past two years, price this session having dipped into the 1320s. The white metal's fallout is also highlighted by price having traced 138% of its EDTR; otherwise, volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. The session's firmest component is Copper +0.5%. The Econ Baro has a busy week for incoming metrics beginning tomorrow.
07 Jun '19, 13:54 Central Euro Time: With May's payrolls data in the balance, the Spoo +0.5% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Copper -0.9%; indeed save for the red metal's having traced 109% of its EDTR, the balance of the components' volatility is basically light. Per Market Values, Oil is some 9 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly distant reading, albeit 'twas 16 points sub-value back on 23 November, a very extreme downside difference at that time. That noted, per the tighter Market Magnets measure, price is but a couple points low. Due as well for the Econ Baro to close out the week are April's Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit metrics.
06 Jun '19, 15:17 Central Euro Time: We know the Dollar must be down when all 8 BEGOS Markets are up: they are led by Silver +1.0%, followed by Oil +0.7% and then by Copper +0.6%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the white metal notably having traced 113% of its EDTR; the Gold/Silver ratio is momentarily sub-90x, however anything above 80x we deem as extreme, as is the S&P's "live" P/E of 30.8x. As well, Gold appears quite high by both its smooth valuation line (per Market Values) as well as by its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro finds a wee reduction in Apr's Trade Deficit and Q1's revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both as lower.
05 Jun '19, 11:47 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, save for the "unch" Bond, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Gold +0.8% followed by the Spoo +0.6%, these two markets moving toward positive correlation on hopes of FED interest rate easing. The yellow metal has traced 121% of its EDTR; otherwise, volatility is light-to-moderate. May's ADP job creation and ISM(Svc) data come due for the Econ Baro.
04 Jun '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: Both Oil and Silver are -0.5%, the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; firmest is the Spoo +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. For the 4th consecutive session Gold has posted a higher-high, today to this point at 1334: there is no structural or otherwise resistance from here up to 1349, the 20 Feb high from which Gold then retreated rather than challenge the 1360 level it achieved in both 2018 and 2017, let alone retake Base Camp 1377. Gold per Market Values is some 60 points above its smooth valuation line, (it greatest upside deviation the in the last 12 months is 85 points); and vis-à-vis its Market Magnet, price is some 38 points high which is quite extreme, this renewed safe haven momentum notwithstanding given a Fed rate cut(s) may be in the offing. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Factory Orders.
03 Jun '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo -0.3% is lower in starting the BEGOS Markets' week. Firmest is Oil +1.4%, followed by Gold and Silver both +0.9%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Bond tracing 137% of its EDTR. Gold has traded as high as 1322: both 1315 and 1325 are nearby prior peaks as denoted in The Gold Update, which highlights price's weekly parabolic trend has having flipped to Long and should price rise on a percentage basis typical to that of past Long trends, we may see the real battle unfold in the 1360s in a battle to retake Base Camp 1377. Note too the Gold/Silver ratio now at 90.0x. May's ISM(Mfg) and Vehicle Sales along with Apr's Construction Spending start a busy week for the Econ Baro. Update: our MRT for the Euro of 1.10625 is nixed as the 12-hr. MACD has swung back to positive.
31 May '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Tariff imposition toward Mexico is pressuring the economically-driven BEGOS Markets components: Oil is -1.8%, the Spoo -1.1%, and Copper -0.5%; Gold is the firmest of the bunch +0.6%, with price's high (1304) having come within 2 points of flipping the weekly parabolic Short trend to Long (were 1306 to be eclipsed). Session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro is only marginally higher (+0.1%) such that the 12-hr. MACD is continuing its negative stance for the 1.10625 MRT. Included metrics for the Econ Baro today are Apr's Personal Income/Spending data along with the Fed's-favoured Core PCE Inflation read.
30 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Save for Copper -0.8%, the BEGOS Markets are lightly changed either way; volatility is moderate. Market Rhythms exhibiting follow-through have been reduced to a mere 7 whose signals are have been meeting that page's criteria ($1,000/cac at least 70% of the time); we've a new MRT for the Euro of 1.10625 based on its 12-hr. MACD crossing negatively from an entry level of 1.11505 ($1,100/cac; current price is 1.11520). The Bond's cac volume is moving from Jun into Sep. The Econ Baro looks to the 2nd read of Q1 GDP, plus Apr's Pending Home Sales.
29 May '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets' economically-driven components are to the downside led by Oil -2.0%, Copper -1.1%, and the Spoo -0.6%; the latter's low this session (2782) has not been seen since 11 Mar; the save haven upside movers are led by the Bond +0.4% and Gold +0.3%; the Gold/Silver ratio is at its highest level since 2001: 89.4x. Gold's cac volume is moving from Jun into Aug. Overall session volatility is light-to-moderate. It remains the case at Market Trends that the only two of the bunch in 21-day linreg uptrends are the Bond and the Swiss Franc.
28 May '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Day 2 of the Tue GLOBEX session still finds Copper +0.3% as the firmest component, albeit what was weakest at this time yesterday, Oil, also is now +0.3%; off the most is Silver -0.6%, the Gold/Silver ratio up to 88.7x; volatility for the overall session remains moderate, the only outlier being the Bond which has traced 112% of its EDTR. Per Market Values, the Bond is a full 5 points above its smooth valuation line: typically that is an excessive distance, however during the S&P's 20% correction last autumn, the Bond reached as high as 10 points above that line. The Econ Baro looks to May's Consumer Confidence.
27 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The 2-day (for Tue settle) GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets mixed, the downside leader being Oil -0.7% and the upside leader being Copper +0.5%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal for the past 6 weeks as not really moving far from the upper area of The Box (1280-1240) and that the weekly parabolic Short trend is within range to flip to Long were 1306 to trade by Fri. At Market Rhythms the present group is but a wee 8 studies, indicative of prices having lacked the requisite follow-through to qualify for the list. Our Memorial Day trading halt is from 10:00-15:00 PT, (Stateside physical bourses being closed).
24 May '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil, which in the prior 3 sessions has dropped a cumulative 8.1%, is +0.7%, followed by the Spoo +0.6% and Copper +0.5%; Silver -0.2% is the BEGOS Markets weak link; volatility is light-to-moderate as StateSide we glide into the Memorial Day weekend incorporating a 5-hour trading halt (with the bourses closed) for Monday's remembrance. By Market Values, Oil is 5 points below its smooth valuation line: we've seen it as much as -15 points this past Nov; by Markets Magnets, price is 3 points "low". The Econ Baro concludes a light week of incoming data with Apr's Durable Goods.
23 May '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Our MRT for Oil (65.94) is quickly nixed as the daily Price Oscillator whipsaws back to the negative side; after falling 2.6% yesterday, price is down another 1.4% this session and is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo -0.8%; firmest are the Bond, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Despite the S&P 500 being -4% from its all-time high just back on 01 May, our "live" P/E remains up at an extreme level of 30.7x; similarly, the Gold/Silver ratio is in rarefied air at 88.3x. Today's Econ Baro looks to Apr's New Home Sales.
22 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Copper -0.9% in trading at 2.6885 has not been this low since 25 Jan; 2nd weakest this session is Oil, -0.5%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and again we've volatility as light-to-moderate. Oil's daily Price Oscillator has triggered an aggressive MRT from an entry level of 62.64 for 65.94, ($3,300/cac); Oil's 21-day linreg trend is down, however per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are rising as such downtrend's consistency becomes less so. The minutes from the 30 April/01 May FOMC meeting are expected to suggest a neutral stance for the balance of 2019.
21 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The safe haven BEGOS Markets return to being out-of-favour whilst leading to the upside are Oil 0.6% followed by the Spoo +0.4%; weakest is Silver -0.4%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, and as was initially mentioned in the current edition of The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are now accelerating their move lower such that the 21-day linreg uptrend may reach its end in the next day or two; still, price itself (1274) remains fairly secured to the upper area of The Box (1280-1240). Apr's Existing Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
20 May '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6% are the BEGOS Markets weak links in kicking off the new week, whilst both Oil +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.2% get the bid; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Rhythms the current list of studies has narrowed to just 10, indicative of components turning back on themselves even in an environment of generally widening Market Ranges. The Gold Update highlights the Gold/Silver Ratio's having reaching a record high level for this millennium. Q1 Earnings Season is in the books: for the 431 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 63% bettered Q1 of a year ago, the first year-over-year comparison under the lowered corporate tax rate established from 2018. Still, the "live" P/E remains a unsustainably high 30.6x.
17 May '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Euro (as anticipated per yesterday's note) has moved sub-1.12, although contrary to what we penned, it had settled in the 1.11s twice since April, prior to which not having so done since June 2017. Today, save for Oil +0.5% and the Bond +0.2%, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver and Copper, both -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold/Silver ratio is at a millennium-to-date high of 88.8x, although during January 1991 'twas briefly just shy of 100x. Oil's cac volume is rolling from Jun into Jul. Due for the Econ Baro are May's UofM Sentiment Survey and Apr's Leading Indicators.
16 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil +1.0%, Copper + 0.6% and the Spoo +0.4% are the upside leaders of the BEGOS Markets; weakest is Gold -0.2%; volatility is mostly light. Both the Euro's 12-hr. MACD and Price Oscillator confirmed negative crossings, albeit shallow, at 00:00 PT, suggestive of a move sub-1.12000, an area not traded since June 2017; given per Market Trends the Euro's "Baby Blues" are rising, we're not setting a specific MRT, although both studies are on the present Market Rhythms list. The Econ Baro looks to May's Philly Fed Index plus Apr's Housing Starts/Permits.
15 May '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets differ lightly either way, the largest net change at present being the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the Bond and Gold are in 21-day linreg uptrends, those for the other 6 components all being negative. Prior to yesterday's bounce, the Spoo was nearly 80 points astray of its Market Magnet, (a fairly extreme distance in either direction). Per Market Profiles, the Spoo now at 2834 sports a swath of trading resistance from 2865 to 2892. The Econ Baro takes in a bevy of data today: May's NY Empire State Index and NAHB Housing Index, April's Retail Sales and IndProd/CapUtil, and Mar's Business Inventories.
14 May '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The economically-driven BEGOS Markets components are seeing some firmness: Oil is +1.5%, the Spoo +0.7% and Copper + 0.3%; weakest is Gold -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, albeit per Market Ranges, EDTRs for the most part have risen of late. Per the Market Rhythms page, the current list features a 1-hr. study (such short time frames are rather rare there), it being for the Spoo's Parabolics: as of yesterday's close, 7 of the 10 crossings (since 06 May) have followed through by at least 22 additional points ($1,100/cac) as the Spoo's EDTR has doubled in just the last 2 weeks; (mind one's prudent cash management as with all the listed Rhythms). The Econ Baro looks to Apr's Ex/Im pricing.
13 May '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo -1.3% is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets commencing the seek, followed by Copper -1.2% and then Silver -0.8%: the Gold/Silver ratio is 87.6x, practically an all-time high (88.4x, 21 Nov '08). Firmest are Oil +1.2%, the Bond +0.4% and the Swiss Franc +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Despite the recent selling in the S&P 500, our "live" P/E is 30.5x and the money needed to move the Index 1 point ($360k) comparatively frothy compared to the year-to-date average ($649). Q1 Earnings Season enters its final week. The Gold Update points to price's ongoing comatose state.
10 May '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher led by Oil +0.9% and Copper +0.6%; only the Spoo -0.3% and the Bond -0.1% are in the red; volatility is light-to-moderate, the one outlier being the Spoo which has traced 108% of its EDTR given newly imposed tariff concerns. The reduced level in the S&P this week has brought the "live" P/E down to (a still very high) 28.9x, and with a week still to run in Earnings Season for Q1, 65% of the S&P companies having reported have bettered their bottom lines from the like period a year ago. Meanwhile the Gold/Silver ratio remains near historical highs at 86.9x. Apr's CPI comes into the Econ Baro.
09 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets safe have components are getting the bid, led by the Bond +0.3%, Gold +0.2% and the Swiss Franc +0.1%; weakest is the Spoo -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) extended down to their 0% axis, provisionally rendering the end of the 21-day trend as being positive for the first time since 11 January after which it had flipped from down to up. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's PPI as well Mar's Trade Deficit and that month's reading on Wholesale Inventories.
08 May '19, 04:08 Pacific Time: Down are the economically-driven BEGOS Markets whilst up are the safe havens. Weakest is Copper -0.6%, followed by the Spoo -0.5%; firmest is Gold +0.5% followed by the Bond +0.4%; volatility is moderate within the context that EDTRs amongst the components per Market Ranges are mostly expanding. At Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are stretching their downside decline; those for the PMs are accelerating higher, albeit their overall 21-day linreg trends are still negative. The Econ Baro awaits inflation data due Thu and Fri.
07 May '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Spoo fell a full 20 points in its final minute of trading yesterday (at 13:59 PT); thus as we measure all of the BEGOS Markets changes per the 14:00 PT Globex close, the Spoo at present is +5 points (+0.2%), whilst other conventional measures have it as -18 points; only the Bond +0.1% also is higher; weakest is Copper -1.6% followed by Oil -1.4%; volatility runs from light for Gold with just a 30% EDTR tracing to robust for Copper with a 109% tracing. Much of the S&P's skittishness is being blamed on trade/tariff relations with China rather than on the Index remaining excessively overbought by earnings standards, the "live" P/E at 30.9x. And at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall.
06 May '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo -1.7% is the BEGOS Markets' weakest component, the FinMedia pointing to potential Chinese goods tariff increases per "tweets", well ahead of which concern was being already being voiced over the mid-east rocket barrages; firmest are the Bond +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having been shelved to sit atop The Box (1280-1240) whilst the balance of interest is in chasing stocks, the S&P 500 being terrifically overvalued. As well, Q1 Earnings Season specific to the S&P 500 for 2019 is posting an average improvement of just +1% over the like period in 2018.
03 May '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly split ahead of Apr's payrolls data: the economically-driven components are higher led by Oil +0.5% whilst the balance are lower, the weakest being the Euro -0.2%; volatility too is essentially light. As noted, per Market Trends only the "Baby Blues" of the Bond and floor-crawling Swiss Franc are not falling; moreover the only one of the bunch with a rising 21-day linreg trendline is the Spoo, which itself by Market Values is 44 points above its smooth valuation line, whereas Gold is 40 points below same. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Apr's ISM(Svc) Index.
02 May '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold's 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, in turn nixing our aggressive MRT for 1302.3, albeit the conservative 1289.3 MRT was achieved; Gold today is -0.4%, 2nd weakest of the BEGOS Markets only to Oil -1.0%; up the most is the Spoo +0.4% followed by Copper +0.3%; volatility is moderate. At Market Trends, only the "Baby Blues" for the Bond are not falling; those for the Swiss Franc are crawling across the floor, whilst those for the other 6 components are mostly accelerating lower. Q1's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs along with Mar's Factory Orders are due for the Econ Baro.
01 May '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets metals are all lower, led by Silver -0.5%, Copper -0.3% and Gold -0.1%; firmest are the Swiss Franc +0.3% and the Euro +0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Swiss Franc having traced 118% of its EDTR. The 12-hr. MACD for Gold whilst still positive is losing its momentum, the conservative MRT of 1289.3 already reached but the aggressive 1302.3 MRT looking a bit more doubtful; 'course we've the FOMC and Powell in the day's balance. The Econ Baro looks to Apr's ADP jobs and the ISM(Mfg) Index along with Mar's Construction Spending.
30 Apr '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Dollar must be down as all 8 of the BEGOS Markets are "unch" to higher with Oil +1.3% leading the pack followed by good gains in the metals; volatility again is moderate. Gold's 12-hr. MACD continues its positive journey such as to maintain the aggressive MRT of 1302.3, (as noted the conservative MRT of 1289.3 having been achieved); per Market Trends, that (21-day linreg) for Gold is down, however its "Baby Blues" are in ascent for their 5th consecutive session, whilst at Market Values price is some 30 points below the smooth valuation line. We've another busy day for the Econ Baro, due for which are Q1's Employment Cost Index, Apr's Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence, and Mar's Pending Home Sales.
29 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Only Oil +0.4% and the Euro +0.1% are in the black to start the week for the BEGOS Markets; the metals are the weak link with Silver -0.8% and both Gold and Copper -0.5%; volatility is moderate. Despite price being down, Gold's 12-hr. MACD remains positive, the conservative MRT of 1289.3 having already be reached; the aggressive MRT of 1302.3 remains on the table barring the signal not crossing to negative. As noted, Silver's cac volume is rolling from May into Jul. The Gold Update highlights the oddity of Goldman pushing both Gold and Copper on the Long side for the year's second half, but Silver on the Short side. The Econ Baro begins a busy week with both delayed and current Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE readings.
26 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Markets gainers with Copper +0.5% and Gold and Silver both +0.3%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is a lofty 85.8x; to the downside, weakest is Oil -1.7%, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 121%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Gold's 12-hr. MACD remains positive and the MRTs (1289.3 conservative and 1302.3 aggressive) intact. Copper's daily Price Oscillator has confirmed going negative from the 2.8650 level (basis Jul) for an MRT of 2.8210 ($1,100/cac); Copper's cac volume is rolling from May into Jul, as so shall Silver's do come Monday. Headlining the Econ Baro today is the first peek at Q1 GDP.
25 Apr '19, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper -1.1% is off the most amongst the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver -0.5%; firmest is Oil +0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal having traced 105% of its EDTR. Gold's 12-hr. MACD confirmed a positive crossing (at 00:00 PT) from a price of 1278.3 giving us a conservative MRT of 1289.3 ($1,100/cac) and an aggressive MRT of 1302.3 ($2,400/cac); per Market Values, the yellow metal is (in real-time) 43 points below its smooth valuation line, and price settled yesterday some 9 points below its Market Magnet. Mar's Durable Goods come due for the Econ Baro.
24 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The S&P 500 yesterday posted an all-time closing high (2934); the all-time intra-day high remains 2491 (22 Sep '18). This session finds the BEGOS Markets with just 2 components barely in the black, Copper and the Bond both +0.1%; weakest is Oil -0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Our MRT for the Spoo of 2845 was nixed upon the daily MACD confirming a positive cross at yesterday's close; only 2 of the past 5 daily MACD Short signals have reached their targets, whereas 4 of the past 5 Longs have so done. The FinMedia is praising Q1 earnings: with 89 of the S&P 500 companies having reported, 71% have bettered Q1 of a year ago; however our "live" P/E is a perilously high 32.1x.
23 Apr '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: 'Tis again a mixed session for the BEGOS Markets: up the most is Oil +0.4%, down the most are Silver and the Swiss Franc, both -0.4%, the latter leading the EDTR tracings at 109%; the volatility for the balance of bunch is light-to-moderate. The daily MACD for the Spoo still is negative, albeit the crossover thus far is shallow at best: still, the 2845 MRT remains in place. From the Market Values page Gold shows as some 50 points below its smooth valuation line whilst Oil is 6 full points above same. Mar's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
22 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Oil launches out of the chute, +2.1% to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, as well with a robust EDTR tracing of 184%; the balance of the bunch are comparably docile with no one component presently changed by 0.3% either way and volatility otherwise light; (major bourses in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia continue their long weekend holiday). The Spoo's daily MACD has confirmed a negative cross from an entry level of 2901.00 with an MRT of 2845 ($2,800/cac); The Gold Update again notes the S&P as being "wildly overbought", the P/E excessive and moneyflow thin; the yellow metal itself settled last week in The Box (1280-1240) but has since barely crept above it early on. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's Existing Home Sales report.
18 Apr '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: This the final trading session until that for Sun/Mon, albeit tomorrow brings the release of Mar's Housing Starts/Permits. The BEGOS Markets are quite mixed with the Bond best at +0.4% whilst worst is Copper -1.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the red metal leading the EDTR tracings at 136% followed by the Euro at 130%; the latter's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally gone negative and looks to so confirm come 06:00 PT such that the MRT for 1.14160 shall be nixed. Due today for the Econ Baro is Apr's Philly Fed Index, Mar's Retail Sales and Leading Indicators, and Feb's Business Inventories. In making lows for the year, Gold (1277) has returned down into the upper reaches of "The Box" (1280-1240) as 'twill be noted in the Saturday's Gold Update.
17 Apr '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only Copper +1.0% is showing any material net move, the balance of the BEGOS Markets otherwise little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro +0.2% does lead the EDTR tracings at 94% and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are rising toward their 0% axis; as well, the 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive in support of our 1.14160 MRT. At Market Ranges one sees their narrowing is stark pretty much across the board, in turn leading to a shorter list of candidates on the Market Rhythms page. Oil's cac vol is rolling from May into Jun. Feb's Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro, plus the Fed releases its Tan Tome.
16 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.3% and Copper "unch", the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, but not by much, the weakest two being Gold and Silver both -0.3% just as they were 'round this time yesterday; volatility is light-to-moderate. Still positive is the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward maintaining our MRT of 1.14160. The "wildly overbought" S&P so remains, its daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics readings all with red "sell" flags for 7 straight sessions, albeit by both Market Values and Market Magnets we've seen worse extremes than as present; still the moneyflow is thinning and the P/E unsustainably high should history again will out. For the Econ Baro we've Mar's IndProd/CapUtil and Apr's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Apr '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil -0.6% along with the metals triumvirate of Copper -0.5% and both Gold and Silver -0.3% are the BEGOS Markets downside leaders; the balance of the bunch are little changed; volatility is light. For the Euro our 1.14160 MRT is still in play per the positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator. The Gold Update highlights the yellow metal's weekly net settles as tightly within the mid-"Whiny 1290s" these last few weeks, but the S&P's daily classic technical measures as being "wildly overbought". The Econ Baro starts a fairly busy week for incoming data with the Apr's NY State Empire Index.
12 Apr '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: During a portion of yesterday's session, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the red, generally meaning the Dollar is getting the bid; now, save for the Bond -0.5% -- it also having already traced 105% of its EDTR -- the balance of the 7 other components are up, led by Copper +1.9% (hello China trade deal?) and Oil +1.2%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive with the MRT of 1.14160. The S&P 500 remains extremely overbought by classic technical measures (daily BollBands, RSI and Stochastics), along with the frothy moneyflow and beyond-expensive P/E. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's UofM Sentiment and Feb's Ex/Im prices.
11 Apr '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo, just +0.1%, is up amongst the BEGOS Markets; "unch" are the EuroCurrencies, whilst the downside leader is Silver -0.7% followed by Oil -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate; at Market Ranges and per our 05 Apr note, EDTRs continue narrowing, in some cases to year-over-year lows. The Euro, at present 1.13360, still is maintaining its positive 6-hr. Price Oscillator toward our 1.14160 MRT. The S&P 500, with our "live" P/E at 31.6x, is near-term extremely overbought by various classic textbook technical measures; moreover, the amount of money to move the S&P 1 point which peaked at over $900k in Jan, continues to drop, yesterday falling into the $400k range. Mar's PPI arrives for the Econ Baro.
10 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, Oil and the Spoo with the most net change at the moment of +0.3%; volatility is light with much high-level fundamentals in waiting, including an "emergency" Brexit summit, the ECB and Draghi (today rather than on the traditional Thu), banking CEOs giving Congressional testimony, and the FOMC's minutes from last month's meeting. The Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator is maintaining its positive track thus keeping our 1.14160 MRT intact, albeit Draghi's commentary can affect that. Due for the Econ Baro is Mar's CPI.
09 Apr '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: Only the Swiss Franc and the Spoo are lower, and just barely at that, the metals triumvirate again the BEGOS Markets leaders, the firmest of which is Copper +0.5%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Yesterday at 12:00 PT the Euro's 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a Long signal from that period's opening level of 1.13280, (at present 1.13460), for an MRT of 1.14160 ($1,100/cac); per Market Profiles, the Euro's most dominant supporter is 1.13000; but as a caution per Market Trends, the Euro's descending "Baby Blues" are contrary to price's recent rising. 'Tis a quiet day for the Econ Baro, however Q1 earnings shall begin their appearance.
08 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The metals triumvirate marks the BEGOS Market leaders with Copper +1.1%, Gold +0.5% and Silver +0.3%; weakest is the Spoo -0.2%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having recorded its 6th week of parabolic Short trend, albeit price is nor really declining; the piece also cites the divergence between the rising S&P and falling Econ Baro as the most vast since the Baro's inception back in 1998; due for it today is Feb's Factory Orders. Importantly with Q1 Earnings Season commencing, 'tis the first one for which comparison to a year ago will be under like tax cut rules.
05 Apr '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets again are expectedly subtle and lightly mixed either way, Oil being the weakest component -0.4% and Silver the firmest +0.2%; only 2 of the bunch have traced better than 50% (and barely that) of their EDTRs, namely Gold and the Bond. At Market Ranges, save for those same two markets, EDTRs are low looking back through a year ago. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Bond, Swiss Franc and Silver are accelerating lower, but not as much so for Gold per the real-time reading. 'Course, Mar's payrolls report need be negotiated in about an hour's time.
04 Apr '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: A day ahead of StateSide jobs data we've another light-volatility session for the BEGOS Markets which are little changed in either direction: firmest is Oil +0.3% and weakest is Silver -0.4%; the "live" Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x; the "live" P/E of the S&P is 31.3x. At Market Magnets, both Oil and the Spoo appear "high" and the Bond "low". Per Market Trends, 6 of the 8 components are exhibiting 21-day linreg uptrends: only that for Silver and Copper are down. And via Market Values, Oil is still some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line. Beyond Thu's usual Jobless Claims, 'tis otherwise a quiet day for the Econ Baro, the upward divergence from it by the S&P remaining forebodingly stark as ever.
03 Apr '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Only the Bond -0.5% is lower, the balance of the 7 other Markets moving higher with Copper leading the pack +0.9% followed by the Spoo +0.5%; volatility ranges from light for Gold which has traced just 28% of its EDTR to robust as the Bond's tracing is 100%. On the list of Market Rhythms is the Spoo's 1-hr. Price Oscillator for which 9 of its past 10 signals have followed through to a move of at least 20 points ($1,000/cac): the Rhythm's median duration is 2-3 calendar days. Due for the Baro today is Mar's ADP jobs data and the month's ISM(Svc) report.
02 Apr '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Light volatility marks the BEGOS Markets with only Copper and Silver having traced a bit better than 50% of their respective EDTRs; Oil +0.5% is the firmest of the bunch whilst weakest is Copper -0.6%. In settling yesterday at 2867, the S&P is just over 70 points from its all-time high of 2940; our call from that level for a 27% correction down to 2154 did reach as far as 20% to 2347, but we've obviously not ruled out the return all the way down to 2154, especially as you know ad nausea the "live" P/E being now 31.6x and the frothy-thin Moneyflow data. In fact per Market Values, the Spoo is only some 56 points "high" above its smooth valuation line, whereas Oil is a 5 full points above its. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Durable Orders.
1 Apr '19, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Gold Update points to the 3 economically-driven components of the BEGOS Markets leading the pack through Q1: this session, the same group are firmly starting Q2 with Oil +1.1% and both Copper and the Spoo +0.6%; volatility is moderate, although Copper has traced 110% of its EDTR. The Gold Update also notes on the Econ Baro graphic therein of it now at the low level which first reached down to in 2008 then saw the S&P's 51% correction into 2009. Due for the Baro today are Mar's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, Feb's Retail Sales and Construction Spending, and Jan's Business Inventories.
29 Mar '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' rocker: 'tis +1.5% and has traced 114% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate with a bevy of incoming data due for the Econ Baro, including Mar's Chicago PMI, Feb's Personal Income and New Home Sales, and Jan's delayed readings on Personal Spending along with the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading. Save for the Bond -0.2%, the balance of the components are all higher, the 2nd firmest being Oil +1.0%. We've nixed our Spoo MRT of 2789.75 as the 4-hr. Parabolics just confirmed flipping back to Long at 04:00 PT. 'Tis already the final trading day of Q1; (it goes quickly). The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 86.1x.
28 Mar '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Copper +0.6% and the mirroring downside leader being Oil -0.6%; volatility is moderate with the Bond leading the EDTR tracings at 76%. Gold's cac volume is moving from Apr into Jun. The list at Market Rhythms has increased: one we're watching is the Spoo's 4-hr. Parabolics which confirmed a flip to Short yesterday at 12:00 PT from an entry of 2809.75 with an MRT of 2789.75 ($1,000/cac). The Econ Baro looks to Feb's Pending Home Sales and the final read on Q4 GDP.
27 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: The save haven components of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Bond +0.5%; those that are economically-driven are lower, namely Oil -0.9% and both Copper and the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 129%. The Bond tapped 150^00 this session, its highest trade since 18 Jan 2018; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating higher and nearing their +80% axis, and yet per Market Values price is only 2 points above the smooth valuation line; but as a near-term caution, price appears well-extended above its Market Magnet. The Econ Baro awaits Mar's Consumer Confidence.
26 Mar '19, 06:14 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - The BEGOS Markets are exhibiting a mild downside bias; only Oil and the Spoo are higher, both +0.3%; at this early point of the session volatility is light with only the Bond displaying any material EDTR tracing at 63%. At Market Trends, with the exception of those for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other "Baby Blues" are in ascent. Per Market Values, none of the 5 primary components are significantly away from their smooth valuation lines. Due for the Econ Baro today are Feb's Housing Starts/Permits.
25 Mar '19, 12:59 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week mixed with a bevy of incoming Econ Data for the Econ Baro throughout. Plus-siders include the metals, whilst Oil, the Bond and the Spoo are weaker; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the buoyant, bidding nature supportive of price despite the parabolic Trend having completed its fourth week to the ShortSide; per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are sporting an adroit turnaround to the upside, whilst at Market Values, Gold is actually below (by 16 points) its smooth valuation line.
22 Mar '19, 14:03 Central Euro Time: With Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.1%, one may sense where the BEGOS Markets bid is: the Bond, +0.7, along with Gold +0.2%; volatility is notably robust with 4 of the 8 components tracing beyond 100% of their EDTRs. Per Markets Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are in real-time accelerating their fall whilst price has fallen below the base of the 10-day Market Profile. The amount of money it takes to move the S&P 500 1 point has now been reduced from over $900k in January to below $600k at present; the Index's live P/E is 31.8x. Incoming data for the Econ Baro today includes Feb's Existing Home Sales and Jan's Wholesale Inventories.
21 Mar '19, 12:22 Central Euro Time: The red and white metals are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, Copper +1.1% and Silver +0.6%; weakest are Oil -0.3% and less so the EuroCurrencies; volatility again is moderate-to-robust with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 108%; nonetheless, Copper's EDTR is the narrowest 'tis been (0.391 points assigned for today) in better than a year. At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are starkly deviating lower from price, the 21-day linreg trend having rotated to down. The Econ Baro looks to Mar's Philly Fed Index and Feb's Leading (or by the Baro, lagging) Indicators.
20 Mar '19, 15:47 Central Euro Time: Heading toward the FOMC's "no change" rate decision we've the BEGOS Markets mixed: firmest at present is the Bond +0.3%; weakest is Silver -0.5%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, which is a bit unusual pre-Fed. From the current edition of The Gold Update: "[the FOMC] gathers this coming Tuesday/Wednesday (19-20 March) toward deciding to do nothing. For were they to do something -- be it a rate rise that the economy would not be able to sustain, or a rate reduction that would signal they've acknowledged the economy is weakening -- we 'spect either way the S&P 500 would not take it well. Rather, keep the complacency of denial alive as the can is further punted down the road. For 'tis all too fragile to do anything at this point."
19 Mar '19, 12:28 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Components are in the black which tells us (without peeking) the Dollar is working lower. Firmest is Copper +1.0% followed by Oil +0.8%; volatility is moderate. Despite Copper's gain, its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are (in real-time) crossing below their 0% axis as the linreg trend rotates from up to down; as well, the red metal's EDTR of 0.0410 points remains near the year-over-year low of 0.3960 points. Due for the Econ Baro are Jan's Factory Orders for which consensus expects some improvement.
18 Mar '19, 12:33 Central Euro Time: Only the Bond -0.1% is in the red to start the week for the BEGOS Markets, which are metals-led by Copper +0.6%, Silver +0.4% and Gold +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is moving from Apr into May. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal continuing to having a buoying bid in spite of the recent new weekly parabolic Short trend; the missive also highlights the S&P's having risen in the face of the thinning moneyflow, abnormally high P/E ratios, and lackluster Econ Baro, which today looks to the NAHB Housing Market Index.
15 Mar '19, 13:59 Central Euro Time: A weaker and worse-than-expected NY State Empire Index isn't keeping the Spoo down, it presently +0.3% even with Silver +1.0%, Gold +0.5% and the Bond as well +0.3%; only Oil and the Swiss Franc are in the red; volatility is moderate although Silver has traced 102 % of its EDTR. Cac Volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun as First Position is Mon. Still on tap for the Econ Baro this session is Mar's UofM Sentiment Survey and Feb's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization. The S&P's "live" P/E is 30.7x and the moneyflow per point movement continues to decline.
14 Mar '19, 12:01 Central Euro Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, the weakest being Copper -1.5% followed by Gold -1.4%; least weak is the Bond just fractionally negative; volatility is moderate-to-robust with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 120%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics flipped to Long thus nixing our MRT target for 2705.50. That said, we still deem the S&P as significantly expensive by the measures of Moneyflow, notably the declining amount of money it takes to move the S&P 1 point, its P/E ratio, and now again its Market Values reading which in real-time finds the Spoo 72 points above its smooth valuation line. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's Ex/Im Prices and Jan's New Home Sales.
13 Mar '19, 12:17 Central Euro Time: (In transit) - Briefly, the PMs and Oil look firm early on with just the Bond mildly lower; volatility appears moderate. CPI, Durables and Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro. The Spoo's daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide, but just barely so.
12 Mar '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond -0.2% and the Spoo "unch", the BEGOS Markets are skewed to the upside led by Oil and Copper, both +1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Copper has traced 102% of its EDTR. The Spoo at 2788 still maintains its Parabolics to the ShortSide with our MRT for 2705.50, albeit a trade today above 2806 ought nix that Target; meanwhile per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their descent. In fact, except for the Bond, none of the Baby Blues for the other 7 components are rising. Jan's CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
11 Mar '19, 04:14 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets as the week begins; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the ShortSide, keeping intact our MRT of 2705.50; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" whilst still above the 0% axis are accelerating their decline; and although per Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is smack on its smooth valuation line, the more daunting measures of thinning moneyflow and an all-too-expensive "live" p/e of 28.9x support lower levels. Jan's Retail Sales highlight the Econ Baro's start to a busy week.
08 Mar '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is more ramped up for the BEGOS Markets, which is a bit unusual given the Feb employment data has yet to be released; the metals triumvirate is notably rangy with Copper leading the EDTR tracings at 104%, followed by Gold's 85% and then Silver's 70%, the latter leading in the change department at +0.6%; Oil and Copper are the weakest components both -1.2% The Spoo's daily Parabolics remain to the Shortside: as cac volume is moving from Mar into Jun with 5 points of premium in the new front month, we're adding same to our MRT thus revising it from 2700.50 to 2705.50 basis Jun. Due too for the Econ Baro today are Jan's Housing Starts/Permits.
07 Mar '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: Another mostly light session thus far by volatility, the rangiest EDTR tracing being 65% by Gold, and yet price at present is "unch". For the yellow metal, the top of The Box (1280-1240) seems supportive given the lows of the prior 3 sessions (from yesterday back) have been 1284, 1282 and 1284; 1281 has traded in this session. Firmest is Oil +1.2% and weakest is Copper -0.5%. The Spoo's daily Parabolics have again quickly flipped back to Short effective the opening price of 2770.50: by the Market Rhythms page an aggressive MRT is 2700.50. Jan's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro along with Q4's Productivity data. ECB's Draghi at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets, the rangiest component being Gold with an EDTR tracing of 46%; that for the Swiss Franc is 25%; no one component is at present changed by 0.2% either way. Per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) below their +80% axis for the first time since 18 Jan; and per the aforementioned froth both herein and in The Gold Update: as of 29 Jan it took $911k to move the S&P 1 point; that has since been reduced to $675k. Today's Econ Baro looks to Feb's ADP jobs data and Dec's delayed Trade Deficit; in the latter part of the session comes the Fed's Tan Tome.
05 Mar '19, 04:33 Pacific Time: Another split session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the safe havens being down and the economic-drivens being up. The latter are led by Copper +1.2% followed by Oil +0.5%; the Bond and the Swiss Franc both are -0.2%. Volatility is mostly light, save for Copper's EDTR tracing of 101%. We are nixing the Spoo's MRTs for 2759.75 (conservatively) and 2725.25 (aggressively) despite price at present (2793) being below 28 Feb's opening "entry" level of 2795 as yesterday's whipsaw range of 52 points was sufficient to flip the daily Parabolics back to Long, (provisionally by the week's up gap opening and then as confirmed at yesterday's close). That noted, the amount of money to move the S&P itself 1 point continues to dwindle, the Index thus supported only by froth, and certainly not earnings given our 30.5x "live" P/E.
04 Mar '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets commence the week quite mixed with volatility ranging from light to robust. The upside leaders are Oil +0.7% and the Spoo +0.2%, whilst to the downside are Copper -0.9% and Gold -0.6%. Despite Oil's rise, its EDTR tracing is just 39%; Copper's is 139%. Q4 Earnings Season has concluded for 2018: for the 463 S&P 500 components having reported, 330 (71%) bettered their bottom lines over 2017's Q4, however as we've noted, in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% bettered). The Gold Update points to price's pullback as healthy given the support of both "The Whiny 1290s" and The Box (1280-1240). Dec's delayed Construction Spending begins the Econ Baro's week.
01 Mar '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: This morning is the opposite of yesterday at this time: the safe havens are being offered led by Gold and Silver both -0.4%; getting the bid are Copper +0.8%, the Spoo +0.5%, and Oil +0.2%; volatility is moderate. Today's close shall make official the end of Gold's weekly parabolic Long trend which lasted 24 weeks, 3rd best by duration since 2001. Despite the Spoo being up, its daily Parabolics are still to the ShortSide (barring 2813.25 trading today; price at present is 2802.00 and per its page, the "guesstimate high if an up day" is 2806.25). Per a check of economic calendars, items due today for the Econ Baro include Feb's ISM(Mfg) Index, Jan's Personal Income (but not Personal Spending), but both of those metrics as delayed for Dec, along with that month's read on Core PCE inflation.
28 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The safe havens are getting the bid ahead of our first peek at Stateside Q4 GDP: the Swiss Franc is +0.8% followed by Gold and Silver both +0.4%; down by same is Copper, followed by Oil and the Spoo both -0.3%; volatility is moderate-to-robust. After yesterday's note on a lack of mentioning MRTs, we've one that has since appeared worth noting: the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed a flip to Short per this session's opening (2795.25); price this session already has been as low 2781.75, however a conservative target is 2759.75 ($1,800/cac) or as construed from the Market Rhythms page 2725.25 ($3,500/cac). In addition to the GDP, the Econ Baro also looks to Feb's Chicago PMI.
27 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: 'Tis another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with Oil the upside leader at +1.0% and Silver the weakest component -0.4%, the cac volume for which is moving from Mar into May; volatility ranges from an robust EDTR tracing for the Swiss Franc of 114% down to only 38% for the Bond, its cac volume moving from Mar into Jun. We've not mentioned any MRTs in nearly a month: in reviewing those that have qualified in the end-of-day work we've noted a tendency for greater risk amounts in assessing the past recent signals: lending to that notion is the decline in components' volatility per the Market Ranges page as market's turn back on themselves rather than follow-through with continued trend. Fed Chair Powell moves his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee; the Econ Baro looks for Jan's Pending Home Sales and Dec's delayed Factory Orders.
26 Feb '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: We've a more subdued session for the BEGOS Markets as Fed Chair Powell's testimony Senate Banking Committee comes 'round 07:00 Pacific Time. Up the most is Oil +0.2% whilst off the most is Silver -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. With respect to our noting the S&P 500 is supported neither by its components' earnings nor its Moneyflow, the Spoo itself by our Market Values page is better than 100 points above its smooth valuation line as has been the case through most of Feb. Copper's cac volume is moving from Mar into May. Due for the Econ Baro is Feb's Consumer Confidence and Dec's delayed Housing Starts/Building Permits.
25 Feb '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate in starting the week for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest of which is Oil -1.0%, with Copper firmest +0.4%. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal having locked in a 24th straight week of parabolic Long trend: as for what would be a 25th week, Gold need stay north of 1310; at present 'tis 1332. The missive also cites the deteriorating Moneyflow of the S&P 500 as the Index nonetheless moves higher, which by the Spoo looks to be the case come today's open. The Econ Baro begins a fairly busy week with Dec's Wholesale Inventories; the week also concludes Q4 Earnings Season, the weakest of 2018's four quarters. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 29.1x.
22 Feb '19, 04:34 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets range from the EuroCurrencies being "unch" to Copper being +1.6% followed by Oil +1.0%; volatility ranges from the Euro having traced just 32% of its EDTR to Copper's 120% tracing. Per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" for the PMs, (despite their recent price pops), are notably dropping: those for Gold settled yesterday at +59% but in real-time are now +53% whilst those for Silver had settled at +10% but are now +4%, the latter for the white metal likely affirming the 21-day LinReg trend changing to down come the new week. The Econ Baro has already concluded its week mildly lower.
21 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Only the EuroCurrencies are barely not in the red, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being led lower by Silver -0.8% and then Copper -0.5%; volatility is mostly moderate, albeit Silver has traced 121% of its EDTR. From a year ago-to-date the Spoo's average EDTR is 39 points, at present 'tis 30 points, a level for which the actual trading range in the past 10 sessions has been exceeded only 4 times. The on-balance light week for incoming Econ Data brings a good dose of it today for the Econ Baro including Feb's Philly Fed Index, Jan's Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales and Dec's delayed Durable Orders.
20 Feb '19, 04:37 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the firmest of the bunch actually being Silver +0.3%; the weakest is Oil -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Stocks look to stay quiet (by the "unch" Spoo) to at least start their session at this writing 'round 2778, the S&P 500 having closed Fri at 2776, (no trading Mon) and Tue at 2780. The Econ Baro has little input this week and as noted in yesterday's comment, the earnings results for 2018's weakest quarter are fairly known. Still, Gold this session has traded as high as 1349: that's just 28 points from key goal Base Camp 1377, a level not seen since 06 July 2016. Reclamation of 1377 then opens the door to our conservative forecast for these past two years of 1434.
19 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Day two for GLOBEX settlement today rightly expands the EDTR tracings led by Copper at 105%; both the red metal and Oil are +0.4%, second only to Gold +0.6%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo -0.3%; volatility is moderate. Silver continues to lack pace, +0.3%, despite being bettered by the other two metals: the Gold/Silver ratio at present is 84.4x. For the S&P 500's Q4 Earnings Season, about 85% of the companies due to report have so done with 73% bettering 2017's Q4, fairly confirming this is 2018's weakest quarter, (each of the prior three quarters showing 85% having improved; see our 05 Feb comment). Our "live" P/E ratio is 29.5x and all three time periods on the Moneyflow page continue to suggest the frothy S&P shall materially come down.
18 Feb '19, 04:22 Pacific Time: The two-day session for Tue settlement finds the BEGOS Markets mostly higher, the two exceptions being the Bond -0.1% and the Spoo "unch"; firmest is Copper +0.5% followed by the EuroCurrencies both +0.3%; volatility is light to moderate; the trading halt spanning the two days is 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time. The Gold Update cites the reluctance to sell the yellow metal, its weekly parabolic Long trend now entering what would be a 24th week barring price slipping below 1300, (presently 1328). Per Market Values, Gold is only slightly above its smooth valuation line and equally so above its Market Magnet.
15 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the 2 EuroCurrencies which are only mildly lower, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper +1.2%, and then Gold, Silver and Oil all +0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate except for Copper which has traced 145% of its EDTR. Despite Copper's being firm today, the "Baby Blues" at Market Trends for the red metal are in real-time again lower, and the daily MACD confirmed a (albeit scant) negative cross per today's open. Oil's cac volume is moving from Mar into Apr. The Econ Baro completes its week with 6 metrics due, including Feb's NY State Empire Index and UofM Consumer Sentiment, plus Jan's Ex/Im pricing and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
14 Feb '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: Only the PMs are mildly lower for the BEGOS Markets, the weakest being Silver -0.2%; otherwise to the upside, firmest is Oil +0.8% followed by Copper +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" have fallen below their +80% axis suggestive of lower levels ahead: presently 2.80 there is structural support in the 2.73 area; there currently are 7 Copper studies in the Market Rhythms list, however the "net profit of all tests" are not that impressive, indicative that the occasional false signal mitigates a material portion of the true signals. Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's PPI and Dec's delayed Retail Sales.
13 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are a bit more settled that they've been at this time the prior two sessions, with volatility light-to moderate. Oil +0.6% is the upside leader; Silver -0.2% is the weak link and is also the rangiest component with a 65% EDTR tracing. Obviously per yesterday's comment we're very wary of the froth in the S&P 500: adding to that, yesterday's 35-point rise in the S&P carried Moneyflow support for just a 22-point rise, and per Market Values, the Spoo is now some 124 points above the smooth valuation line. Over these next 3 days the Econ Baro takes in 15 metrics including today's CPI data for Jan.
12 Feb '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round now yesterday, the Swiss Franc is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings, this time at 118%; the currency and the Bond are both -0.4%; only worse is Copper -0.5%. The big gainer is Oil +2.0% followed by the Spoo +0.7% and then the PMs; session volatility is otherwise moderate. The Spoo is again teasing the upper side of the S&P's "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719) which was completed Mon a week ago: per Market Values, the Spoo (in real-time) is 105 points above its smooth valuation line whilst per our Moneyflow page, the quarterly measure through yesterday's close suggests the Index ought be 173 points lower. The "live" P/E is at present 30.1x.
11 Feb '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo +0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the red with both Oil and Copper off the most at -0.8%, followed by Silver -0.7% and then Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal as having had "nothing" upon which to trade but this ensuing week ought provide more impetus to so do, along with the notion that the weekly parabolic Long trend of 22 weeks by historical comparisons may soon run out of puff. Indeed the week is off to a busy trading start with volatility moderate-to-robust, the Swiss Franc leading the EDTR tracings at 116%.
08 Feb '19, 04:40 Pacific Time: Another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets with a lean to the downside, Oil and the Spoo again both -0.5%; the Bond, Gold and Silver are all +0.2%; volatility is mostly light, the Econ Baro having completed its intake of metrics for the week. As noted yesterday Market Ranges continue to compress; at Market Trends the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are (in real-time) perceptively starting to roll over, whilst those for Oil have (in real-time) taken a notable drop today having settled yesterday at +72% but are now at +51%. Gold appears en route to completing a 22nd week of parabolic Long trend which would rank alone as 4th from 2001-to-date.
07 Feb '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: Yesterday's reports due for Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs are delayed in the wake of the gov't shutdown. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with both Oil and the Spoo -0.5% and the Bond and Copper both +0.3%; volatility is mostly moderate. The recent narrowing in components' volatility stands stark at the Market Ranges Page especially for the Spoo, Oil and EuroCurrencies. At our page for Moneyflow, that for the S&P 500 continues unsupportive for the Index across all 3 time periods, plus our "live" P/E remains at very lofty levels, 32.2x at present.
06 Feb '19, 04:36 Pacific Time: The only BEGOS Market in the black is Copper +0.2%, otherwise, the Bond is "unch" and the other components are in the red led by Silver -0.8% and then Oil -0.5%; volatility is moderate. At Market Values, Gold is (in real-time) right at its smooth valuation line, however the Euro is nearly 0.04 points low. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are crossing below their -80% axis; thus the PMs are struggling to stay firm as the EuroCurrencies have somewhat weakened. Due for the Econ Baro are Q4's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, plus the delayed Trade Deficit for Nov.
05 Feb '19, 04:23 Pacific Time: Yesterday the S&P 500 completed its "golden ratio" retracement (from 2940 to 2347 to 2719): 'twould be ideal from here to resume our still-expected 27% correction to 2154. That said, the Spoo +0.2% is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by Gold and Copper both +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are down, led by Oil -0.8%; volatility is light. Recorded are now half of the S&P companies due to report within Q4 Earnings Season and "only" 75% have bettered the prior year's like quarter, however that number was 85% in each of the prior three quarters.
04 Feb '19, 04:13 Pacific Time: Save for the "unch" Spoo, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are down to start the week, the PM's being the weakest of the bunch with Silver -1.0% and Gold -0.5% as is Oil; volatility is moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 92%. The Gold Update highlights this past Jan as "ordinary" for the yellow metal and notes that the weekly parabolic flip price to Short would arrive above The Box (1240-1280); Gold's current weekly parabolic Long trend at 21 weeks duration ties for 4th on the Long side since 2001. Nov's delayed Factory Orders report comes due for the Econ Baro.
01 Feb '19, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the bias being to the downside led by Copper -0.8%, Oil -0.5%, and both Silver and the Spoo -0.4%; the EuroCurrencies and the Bond are mildly higher; volatility is mostly moderate, the laggard being the Spoo's EDTR tracing of just 28% with the Jan jobs data in the balance. Due as well for the Econ Baro is Jan's ISM Index plus more gov't shutdown catchup metrics for Nov's Construction Spending and Wholesale Inventories. The FinMedia is quite a-buzz about the S&P 500's best Jan in 32 years, yet the Index is only where 'twas back on 07 Dec, indeed having almost completed a "golden ratio" retracement to 2719 (basis the Sep high to the Dec low).
31 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolic Short signals on both Oil and the Spoo were essentially "one day wonder whipsaws", both flipping right back to Long and nixing our MRTs respectively of 51.12 and 2576.25. Indeed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are modestly higher and volatility is again light-to-moderate, the Euro being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 58%, the tightest being the Spoo with just a 27% tracing. Delayed by the gov't shutdown, Nov's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro, along with Jan's Chicago PMI and Q4's Employment Cost Index.
30 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil's daily Parabolic remain Short despite price (53.85) rising for the 2nd straight session: but a trade not that much higher through 54.18 would nix the 51.12 MRT as the study would flip to Long; still, Oil's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are beginning to descend. Meanwhile, the Spoo's daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Short for an MRT of 2576.25. Save for the Swiss Franc and the Bond, the BEGOS Markets are higher, Oil indeed the firmest +1.1%; volatility is light-to-moderate ahead of the Fed. Due for Econ Baro are Jan's ADP jobs data and Dec's Pending Home Sales.
29 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil begins the session with a new MRT of 51.12 as the daily Parabolics confirm a flip to Short; there is some entry advantage with price presently 52.35, up from the opening trigger of 52.12. Indeed, save for the Swiss Franc, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Market are "unch" to higher, the most being Copper +0.7% followed by both Silver and Copper +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate with Silver leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, but the Bond with just a 28% tracing. The Econ Baro kicks into gear for a busy data week with Jan's Consumer Confidence.
28 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets range from "unch" to lower, led by Oil -1.4%; volatility is mostly light with Silver the widest EDTR tracer at 64% and the Swiss Franc the narrowest at 33%. Gold at 1299 has been struggling to maintain its final hour Friday pop above 1300 to 1303 on well-above average volume for that specific trading hour (21:00-22:00 GMT) as is noted in The Gold Update; the yellow metal's parabolic Long trend of 20 weeks ties for 5th best amongst Long trends this millennium. Gold's volume remains in the Feb cac but ought fully roll into Apr in the next day or so.
25 Jan '19, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's 50.85 MRT noted yesterday (generated Wed) was quickly nixed as the 8-hr. Moneyflow whipsaws across its signaling area (48-52 on a 0-100 scale); still, Oil -0.2% is only 1 of 2 BEGOS Markets which are lower, the other being the Bond -0.1%. Firmest is the Spoo +0.6% followed by the Euro, Gold and Silver, all +0.3%; volatility is moderate, the Euro again the rangiest of the bunch with a 70% EDTR tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all continue to work lower whilst those for Oil in real-time are just beginning to curl down from the +90% area.
24 Jan '19, 04:35 Pacific Time: Only the Bond and Spoo, both +0.2%, are higher amongst the BEGOS Markets; down the most for the balance of the bunch is Silver -0.7%; volatility is mostly moderate, the rangiest component being the Euro with an EDTR tracing of 89% ahead of the ECB's policy statement followed by Draghi's press conference. Oil's 8-hr. Moneyflow produced an MRT yesterday (at 08:00 PT) for 50.85; however the entry point back then was 52.85; price at present is 52.16, thus the risk is dearer if nixed. The Econ Baro looks to Dec's Leading Indicators, the consensus for which is negative.
23 Jan '19, 04:28 Pacific Time: Oil +0.9% is again the BEGOS Markets leader, the weak link being the Bond -0.3%; volatility is light, exemplary that per Market Ranges all 8 components week-over-week have narrowing EDTRs. At Market Trends the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all find their "Baby Blues" in decline with room to spare for still lower price levels. And at Market Profiles only Oil and the Spoo are above their midpoints. As the inflow thickens for Q4 Earnings Season's results, 47 of the S&P 500 have reported with "only" 35 of those -- i.e. 74% -- bettering the prior year's like period: in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3, 85% had bettered; thus at least early on, Q4 is not keeping pace with 2018's prior quarters.
22 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues with Oil, -1.7% passing Copper -1.5% on the downside for the weakest BEGOS Market position; firmest of the bunch is the Bond +0.3%; volatility is moderate. Gold is back atop The Box (1240-1280) at 1282, a Market Profile support level, however the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are accelerating lower, as is the case with Silver: the white metal shows no notable structural support until the 14.90s, thus threatening the recent run not quite up to 16. Dec's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Jan '19, 04:15 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed for MLK Day, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway with most of the BEGOS Markets working lower, led by Copper -0.8%, Silver -0.7% and the Spoo -0.6%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold has slipped back inside The Box (1240-1280) for the first time since 04 Jan: The Gold Update highlights price's narrow trading range through much of last week, prior to Fri's fall recording a net loss year-to-date. An avid reader points to the current Barron's piece on Newmont acquiring Goldcorp, and Barrick acquiring Randgold: both combinations ought foster materially improved management.
18 Jan '19, 04:16 Pacific Time: Again we've Oil leading the BEGOS Markets, but this time to the upside, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +0.8%; the PMs are the weak links with Gold -0.6% and Silver -0.5%; the Gold/Silver ratio is 83.0x; the "Baby Blues" for the PMs at Market Trends are now breaking down more noticeably. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 85% whilst that for the Swiss Franc is just 20%. For Gold, the top of The Box (1240-1280) ought provide some structural support. For the Econ Baro, due are the UofM's Sentiment Survey for Jan and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization for Dec.
17 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, again is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; Oil's cac volume is moving from Feb into Mar; 2nd weakest is the Spoo, -0.5% and firmest is the Bond, +0.2%; volatility is light. Gold's "Neverland" (i.e. The Whiny 1290s) is essentially keeping price therein entrapped: Gold's EDTR is 11 points, and yet its entire range thus far this week is but 10 points (from 1297 down to 1287; price at present is 1294); per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" as anticipated are now down (in real-time) to the +80% level; Silver's are beginning to accelerate lower, now down to +73%. Jan's Philly Fed Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
16 Jan '19, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, +0.8% and the Spoo, +0.1%, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs have been falling for all 8 components, clearly the most being for the Spoo, followed by Oil. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have dropped below their +80% axis, suggestive of lower levels ahead: we don't really see much structural support until the 14.90s; 'twould be a shame to give back all that working up through most of the 15 handle (on verra); Gold's Baby Blues are also lower (at +82% in real-time). Data due for the Econ Baro includes Jan's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed: Q4 Earnings Season is beginning to kick in and today brings the UK vote on Brexit (11:00 Pacific Time) ahead of which the Dollar is getting a bid, in turn finding the Swiss Franc -0.6%, the weakest of the bunch, followed closely by the Euro, -0.5%; to the upside the firmest component is Oil, +0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro with the rangiest EDTR tracing at 94%, whilst that for Oil is but 33%. Per Markets Trends, Gold's and Silver's "Baby Blues" are a bit lower today for the 3rd straight session, albeit they remain above their respective +80% axes; more in free fall are those for the Bond and EuroCurrencies. The Econ Baro looks to Jan's NY State Empire Index and Dec's PPI.
14 Jan '19, 04:21 Pacific Time: Both Copper and Oil are -1.2% to begin the week for the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.9%; Gold is firmest, +0.6%, and of note thereto, NEM is buying GG for $10B; volatility is mostly moderate. The Gold Update stresses price revisiting "Neverland", aka The Whiny 1290s: year-to-date the 1290s have traded everyday and 'tis a zone within which price has had a tendency historically to get stuck; per Market Profiles, 1291 has been the most dominantly traded price for the past 2 weeks; for Silver, which is "unch" rather than up with Gold, 15.700 shows as the dominate price.
11 Jan '19, 04:24 Pacific Time: Almost in mirrored reverse of what we saw at this time yesterday, save for the Spoo, -0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Oil, +1.0% and then the metals triumvirate; volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver tracing 71% of its EDTR, but the Spoo's range continuing its narrowing with just a 17% tracing. Despite the Bond being firmer today, per Market Trends its "Baby Blues" are accelerating their drop below the +80% axis: however with price presently 145^15, the 144-145 range from some 2 weeks back appears as price clustering. Incoming data due for the Econ Baro is highlighted by Dec's CPI.
10 Jan '19, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond which is "unch", the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, the recent winning streaks for both the Spoo, -0.5%, and Oil, -0.3%, poised to come to an end; at Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil have recovered from their respective extreme "low" readings to which we'd pointed in prior weeks. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the Swiss Franc being the most rangy with an 82% tracing of its EDTR; such measure per Market Ranges for the Spoo reached as high as 82 on 27 Dec, since having declined to 67 for today; indeed yesterday's actual range was just 28 points. There are a number of FedHeads speaking today including Chairman Powell at the Econ Club of Washington.
09 Jan '19, 04:26 Pacific Time: To the upside the BEGOS Markets are led by Oil, +2.2% in rising for the 7th straight day; to the downside the PMs are weakest, but only mildly so with Gold -0.3% and Silver -0.2%; week-to-date for Gold the top of The Box (1240-1280) has been supportive; session volatility is light. In a note last evening to a trading colleague we wrote re: the Spoo that "...Following better than a month of quite “thin” bid and offer sizes (roughly 1/3 of “normal”), the Spoo’s sizes today were ramped up toward 2/3 of “normal”. The EDTR (“expected daily trading range”) remains extremely high, however has begun starting to drop as the liquidity thickens. The EDTR for Tuesday was 74 points (between the low and high) but the actual range was just 34 points, the third-narrowest since Thanksgiving Day..."
08 Jan '19, 04:30 Pacific Time: The S&P (2450) now sits some 400 points below its all-time high (2940) and 400 points above our targeted correction low (2154); the Spoo at present (2569) is +0.6% suggesting the rally continue for a 3rd day; firmest of the BEGOS Markets is Oil, +0.8%, attempting a 6th straight up day; weakest is Gold, -0.4%; volatility is again light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for each of Gold, Silver and the Bond appear poised to come off of their respective ceilings, whilst those for Copper look due to rise from the floor: however, once the selling resumes in the overall S&P correction, the safe havens ought resume getting the bid. Nov's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro late in the session.
07 Jan '19, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo had opened the week up as much as 0.9% "on China trade hopes"; 'tis presently -0.1%; leading to the upside is Oil, +1.8%; the PMs, EuroCurrencies and Bond all are higher by 0.4%-0.5%; Copper like the Spoo is marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. As traders return from the year-end holiday we'll see if thin size conditions persist such that volatility remains rampant: recall such was already the case well prior to the holidays; the EDTR for the Spoo is 77 points (of which 28 or 37% have been traced); notwithstanding Friday's rally, per Market Values the Spoo still shows as 96 points "low", but per MoneyFlow the suggestion is for the S&P to ultimately resolve lower. Dec's ISM(Svc) starts a light load of metrics for the Econ Baro's week; Q4 Earnings Season starts as well.
04 Jan '19, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil +2.9%, Copper +1.6% and the Spoo +1.2% are the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the latter's rise at present would recover 1/2 of yesterday's 62-point loss (-2.5%) in the S&P; the PMs are the weak links as is the Bond which is off the most at -0.4%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, recent trending has these specific components well-away from their smooth valuation lines: in real-time the Bond is 9 points "high", Gold is 80 points "high" and the Spoo is 154 points "low"; but the S&P itself by all three Moneyflow durations suggests still lower levels are ahead. Dec's jobs data comes due for the Econ Baro.
03 Jan '19, 04:29 Pacific Time: The overnight change in the Spoo (presently -14.50 from the 14:00 Pacific Time GLOBEX close) is post the "fallout" from the negative AAPL outlook from which the Spoo had already dropped 20 points; thus at present, the S&P would decline some 35 points at the open; otherwise, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper, +0.7%; volatility is moderate. Of note, the Yen (not a formal BEGOS component) has traced 206% of its EDTR given its having had what is being termed a "flash crash" gap from the 14:00 close of .0092340 to the 15:00 open of .0094040 (or inversely -1.8% from 108.3 to 106.3). Due today for the Econ Baro are Dec's ADP Employment data, the ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales.
02 Jan '19, 04:12 Pacific Time: The new year begins with a reversal of that which we saw on Monday, most of the BEGOS Markets now in the red with Oil off the most, -1.8%, followed by the Spoo, -1.5%; we continue view the S&P as in an overall 27% correction from 2940 ultimately to 2154: 75% of that course has been already traced, the S&P having reached down to 2347 a week ago. The Bond and Gold are to the upside in typical safe haven bid fashion. Rangiest of the bunch is Copper with a 113% tracing of its EDTR and overall volatility is moderate-to-robust. Per its Market Profile, Oil has slipped below its dominant supporter of 45.50 and its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends are extending their run lower.
31 Dec '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: The year's final trading session is to the upside for most of the BEGOS Markets, led by Oil, +3.0% and the Spoo, +0.9%; only the Bond is lower, -0.1%. The Gold Update maintains the same forecast high(s) for next year: conservatively 1434 and aggressively 1526. Gold is trading above The Box (1240-1280) at 1285: the yellow metal has finished higher on the last trading day of the year 13 of 17 times millennium-to-date. All 8 BEGOS components look to complete the year in the red, the non-component Dollar being up some 4% for 2019. Be safe and have a Happy New Year!
28 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: With the Spoo +0.8% and firmest of the BEGOS Markets, one can't help but wonder should the S&P net a 3rd straight up day within the overall correction that 'twill then all go wrong come the year's last trading day on Monday: on verra; only Oil is lower, -0.4%, and volatility is moderate, save for the Swiss Franc which has traded 103% of its EDTR. The Spoo's EDTR is 82 points, perhaps (without reviewing it) the most volatile reading since The Black Swan cascade of 2008/2009. With no Econ Data scheduled for Monday, today brings the Econ Baro's last 2 metrics for the year: Dec's Chicago PMI and Nov's Pending Home Sales.
27 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: One quarter of yesterday's robust gain (+5.4%) in the Spoo has at present eroded (-1.5%), as has -2.7% of Oil's +9.2% gain; session volatility is moderate, save for Silver's having traced 106% of its EDTR, the white metal being +0.4% after breaking up into the 15s yesterday for the 1st time since 15 Aug: the Gold/Silver ratio is 84.0x. The "live" P/E of the S&P returned yesterday to an extremely high 37.8x. In a note post-close to our Investors Roundtable: "...The S&P had a strong +5.5% push higher today on fairly light volume, (i.e. 'thin' trading conditions) such that bid and offer sizes were about 1/3 of normal, which makes it very easy for the market to move. The market traded right up into a 'resistance nest' here in the 2473-2476 zone such that 'tis an ideal place from which to resume lower once again, if not by New Year then soon after..." For the Econ Baro today comes Dec's Consumer Confidence.
26 Dec '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Copper is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, having traced 170% of its EDTR; price is at present +1.5%, 2nd only to Oil's being +1.6%; weakest is the Euro, -0.4%; volatility otherwise is moderate. Despite the recent selling in the Spoo, per Market Trends the "Baby Blues" are only just today (in real-time) crossing below their -80% axis, having not been that low 01 Nov, (price then 2723 vs. 2355 now); at Market Values, the Spoo shows as a very extreme 308 points below the smooth valuation line: however by the S&P's Moneyflow page, the Index ought still be far lower than it currently is, indeed by 458 points via the quarterly measure, well below our 2154 target with which we're sticking; but the "live" P/E (33.4x) is not coming off as much as we'd initially anticipated to the extent stocks would remain expensive upon reaching that target.
24 Dec '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: In this pre-holiday shortened session Oil, -1.2%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Spoo, -0.7%. Despite the S&P's 51-point slide on Friday, per our prior note, the Index did rise at the open to as much as +37 points before tossing in the towel. The Gold Update contains a logarithmic visual of the current S&P correction targeting 2154 vs. major past corrections; the missive also restates our notion of Gold finishing the year inside of The Box (1240-1280): presently at 1266, Gold is the firmest of the components, +0.5%; session volatility is moderate. Merry Christmas!
21 Dec '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: With the Spoo -0.4%, the FinMedia is reporting that "U.S. stocks poised to drop..."; what they're missing is the Spoo's having risen some 0.8% post-S&P close, such that stocks ought rise were the S&P to open at present: c'est la vie. Still, save for the Bond, +0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, the weakest being Oil, -1.7%, followed by Silver, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Per Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR is 63 points, the most expansive since 21 Feb. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation and Durable Orders, plus the final read for Q3 GDP.
20 Dec '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Volatility is the theme thus far as the EuroCurrencies and PMs have exceeded 100% of their EDTR tracings. Up the most is Silver, +1.1%, whilst down the most is Oil, -1.9%; the latter's "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have halted their ascent 'round the -40% level; that noted, Oil's low these last three sessions has been 45.91, 45.93 and to this point today 45.82, so some attempt for consolidation there. For the Spoo per Market Profiles, near-term trading support is 2506, above which price presently is 2510; still we look for the correction in due course to continue down into next year to 2154, (-27% from the 2940 high of 22 Sep). For the Econ Baro today comes Dec's Philly Fed Index and Nov's Leading Indicators.
19 Dec '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.4%, the Spoo, +1.2% and Copper, +1.0% are all looking firm ahead of the Fed whilst Gold and the Swiss Franc are marginally lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. We saw Oil at one point yesterday down more than 6% (measured as always per the prior session's GLOBEX close); again per Market Values, price (in real-time) is some 9 points below the smooth valuation line; so swift was Oil's plunge that an MRT triggered at midnight yesterday per Oil's daily Parabolics swiftly was met from a 49.16 confirmation to a 48.16 Target equal to $1,000/cac as is presently listed on the Market Rhythms page. The Econ Baro looks to the Q3 Current Account Deficit and Nov's Existing Home Sales; today's FedFunds hike to 2.50% is followed by a Powell press conference.
18 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: We've been wrong on our expectation for Oil: rather than run up into the mid-50s it instead has dropped down into the high 40s, presently at 48.66, -1.6% in an otherwise mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, led to the upside by the Euro, +0.4%; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo's 29% EDTR tracing to robust given Copper's 119% EDTR tracing. Per Market Values, real-time readings find the Bond some 7 points "high", the Euro nearly 3 points "high", Gold 50 points "high", Oil 8 points "low" and the Spoo 106 points "low": those are whole points, not pips, so there is quite a bit of prices being far from their respective smooth valuation lines. Nov's Housing Starts/Building Permits are due for the Econ Baro.
17 Dec '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil continues its role as the BEGOS Markets leader 'round this time of the session, today being the firmest of the bunch, +1.2%; the ongoing climb of Oil's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends still maintains our notion for a price move up into the 55-57 area; as well, Oil's cac volume is moving from Jan into Feb. Copper is the weakest component, -0.6%; the Swiss Franc leads the EDTR tracings at 95%, volatility otherwise being light-to-moderate. The Gold Update cites price having run out of puff, perhaps for the balance of the year toward finishing somewhere in The Box (1240-1280), but the S&P having run just -12% of our ultimately expected -27% correction. Within the week's expectation of the FedFunds rate rising to 2.50% on Wed come 16 metrics for the Econ Baro, starting today with Dec's NY State Empire Index and NAHB Housing Index.
14 Dec '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: For the 2nd straight session Oil is the BEGOS Market's downside leader, -1.2%: for all of its gyrations of late, price (52.24) remains above the recent low (49.41) of some 3 weeks ago, and moreover per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are again higher (up to -40% in real-time as the consistency of the 21-day linreg downtrend continues to be less so). Only the Bond is higher, +0.4%, and session volatility is mostly moderate. Cac volume for the EuroCurrencies and the Spoo is moving from Dec into Mar. On deck for the Econ Baro are Nov's Retail Sales and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, plus Oct's Business Inventories.
13 Dec '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Oil the weakest component, -1.2%: still per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are higher yet; to the upside, Copper is firmest, +0.7%; again we've session volatility as light-to-moderate. At Market Values, "high" readings persist for both the Bond and Gold and a "low" reading for Oil. Per Market Rhythms, 'tis rare that a 30-min study gets noted, however for the present we've the Spoo's 30-min Parabolics qualifying for the list. The ECB/Draghi are expected to cease asset purchases; the Econ Baro's metric's today include Nov's Ex/Im pricing.
12 Dec '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.2%, is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets followed by the Spoo, +1.0% and then less so by Silver, +0.5%; weakest of the bunch is the Swiss Franc, -0.3%; volatility again is light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) kinked lower, albeit are still above their +80% level (+87%); still the yellow metal appears en route to making a 2nd consecutive "lower high" on its daily chart. Oil's Baby Blues by their real-time reading are accelerating their rise as the 21-day linreg downtrend loses its consistency. Of note today for the Econ Baro is Nov's CPI.
11 Dec '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are up, Oil being the leader, +1.2%, followed by Copper, +1.0%; then come Silver and the Spoo, both +0.9%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are still rising given price's continuing to consolidate in the low 50s: again we're seeking a pop to the 55-57 zone, supported in part by OPEC's lean to tightening next year. The Bond's Baby Blues are looking toppy and those for Gold are stretching up (in real-time) to +88%. 13 metrics due this week for the Econ Baro start today with Nov's PPI.
10 Dec '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The week starts mildly up for the Bond and EuroCurrencies, and more notably down with the metals, Oil and Spoo, led by Silver, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal (1251) having for the present secured itself in The Box (1240-1280), wherein price has traded during some 27% of the past 5 years. Oil is -0.5%, its "Baby Blues" nonetheless furthering their rise per Market Trends; as well, Oil's EDTR of 2.65 is its highest reading in a least a year, ('twas 1.19 at this time a year ago when price was 56 vs. 52 today). At Market Values, Oil appears as "low" by some 8 points and both the Bond and Gold as "high" respectively by 8 and 59 points.
07 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate amongst the BEGOS Markets with a bevy of incoming Econ Data in the balance, highlighted by the StateSide jobs numbers. All of the components are "unch" to higher, save for the Spoo, -0.7%; firmest is Copper, +0.5%; rangiest is the Bond with an EDTR tracing of 66%. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their climbout from the floor. At Market Profiles, the Spoo (presently 2678) shows dominant support at 2666, then less so at 2643, with resistors at 2695, 2702, and then more dominantly so at 2379; the Spoo's EDTR is 51 points and rising. Oil, presently 51.86, is between support at 51.30-51.10 and resistance at 53.00-53.20.
06 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil again is leading the pack, but this time to the downside, -2.5%, followed by Copper, -2.0%, and then the Spoo, -1.5%: the S&P (at present) would open 'round the mid-2600s leaving still quite a way down toward our correction call to 2154, regardless of when that ultimately comes to pass. Session volatility ranges from light for the Euro to robust for the 3 noted leading losers, of which the Spoo has the widest EDTR tracing at 136%. Oil's dropping is not enough to stem the "Baby Blues" per Market Trends continuing their rising, in real-time having surpassed above the -80% level to -78%: still, this is 2nd day of the OPEC meeting. The busy stream of incoming metrics for the Econ Baro includes Nov's ISM(Svc) Index, along with Oct's Factory Orders and Trade Deficit.
05 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets upside leader for the 3rd consecutive day at this time, presently +0.9%; 2nd firmest is the Spoo (+0.5%) which will close its session at 06:30 PT in observance of GHWB's passing; for reason of same, the Bond is closed for its entire session; the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are running their normal course, the weakest of the bunch being Silver, -0.4%. Oil's "Baby Blues" are now up to the -83% level, ascending at a rate which would see them pass above the -80% level into the Thu session, suggestive of still higher prices (note the 55-57 comment from yesterday): that said, we're mindful of OPEC's 2-day meeting beginning tomorrow in Vienna; by Market Values, Oil still shows well "low" by some 8 points.
04 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo is lower, -0.3%, the other 7 BEGOS Markets working higher, led again by Oil, +1.6% and then Silver, +1.2%. Gold has scampered up into (per The Gold Update) "the the safety and serenity of The Box" which is the 1240-1280 zone. Session volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Bond's MRT of 138^01 is nixed as the 12-hr. MACD has swung up to positive; we're nixing as well the Euro's MRT of 1.14910 (despite price rising) as its 12-hr. MACD has taken on a flat-lined neutral stance. As anticipated, per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have begun bending up, in real-time at the -87% level: Oil's "price bunching" in its recent decline ranged in the 55-57 area were one looking for a near-term upside target, (last 53.93).
03 Dec '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oil is the big BEGOS Markets mover to start the week, +4.4%: The Gold Update notes watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends to eventually pass above their -80% axis: in real-time they are up to the -93% level, their highest is at least a month. 2nd-firmest are Silver and Copper, both +1.5%, followed by the Spoo, +1.2%; weakest is the Bond, -0.4%, its 12-hr. MACD continuing its negative stance thus keeping intact the MRT of 138^01; volatility is moderate, albeit Gold has traced 103% of its EDTR. Nov's ISM(Mfg) Index and Oct's Construction Spending start a busy week of 18 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro.
30 Nov '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Silver's 12-hr. MACD returned to positive, in turn nixing our 14.090 MRT; the same study for the Bond remains negative for its 138^01 MRT; again per the same study we've an upside MRT for the Euro (from 1.14030) of 1.14910 ($1,100/cac). Still, the Bond is up this session, +0.2%, whilst the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are down, led by Oil, -1.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. By Market Values, we've extremes of Oil being 13 points "low" and the Bond 5 points "high". The Spoo at present is clinging to major Market Profile support at 2732. The Econ Baro closes out Nov with the Chicago PMI.
29 Nov '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The revised open MRTs due to cac rollovers are for the Bond 138^01 basis Mar and for Silver 14.090 also basis Mar; following Powell's remarks yesterday, the 12-hr. MACDs have become less supportive of these two MRTs, that study in both cases having become less negative, albeit Silver is the weakest BEGOS Market, -0.3% in this session; the Bond is +0.5%, and firmest is Oil, + 1.1%; volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Bond's EDTR tracing of 148%; Gold's cac volume is moving from Dec into Feb. Data for the Econ Baro today includes Oct's Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Prices and Pending Home Sales.
28 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our 2 MRTs for the Bond and Silver remain intact per their negative 12-hr. MACD stances: both markets' cac volumes are still lingering in Dec but ought be rolled into Mar by tomorrow; per yesterday's note, Silver's Mar cac MRT should be about 0.14 points higher (than 13.940) and that for the Bond's Mar cac about 0^20 points lower (than 138^21) depending upon pricing once volume firmly is in each new cac. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, save for Copper, +0.7%: the red metal's cac volume is moving today from Dec to Mar. Session volatility is light-to-moderate with Fed Chairman Powell's Econ Club of NY speech on deck as well as for the Econ Baro the second peek at Q3 GDP and Oct's New Home Sales.
27 Nov '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by Silver, +0.5%, and on the downside by Copper, -0.6%; volatility is moderate. Coming off of a successful Long MRT for the Bond, we've now a Short one, the 12-hr. MACD confirming a negative crossover from 139^25, (presently 139^29) for an MRT at 138^21 basis Dec; the identical study has confirmed for Silver from 14.180 (presently 14.255) for an MRT of 13.940 basis Dec: note that cac volume on both contracts shall roll into Mar starting tomorrow for which we'll update the MRTs. Nov's Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Friday's session saw the Bond achieve our MRT of 140^10; today, (save for the Bond being -0.1%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are in the black, led by Oil, +1.4% and then the Spoo, +1.2%; volatility is moderate. Still, at Market Trends, only the Bond and the Swiss Franc are in 21-day linreg uptrends: notably, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to flat-line across the floor, and per Market Values, price (in real-time) is nearly 15 points "low"; the Bond's reading shows as 5 points "high". Q3 Earnings Season has concluded with 85% (352) of the S&P 500's 414 reporting entities having improved their bottom lines from the like period a year ago, again not unexpected given the corporate tax rate cut; overall, of 2009 companies reporting, 69% showed improvement.
23 Nov '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues with Oil, -4.3%, trading down to its lowest level (51.73) since 24 October 2017; moreover, save for the Bond, +0.2%, all of the BEGOS Markets are in the red, the 2nd-weakest being Silver, -1.9%; session volatility combining the 2 days ranges from light for the Spoo (with just a 24% tracing of its EDTR) to robust for Silver's 112% tracing. The Bond's high thus far is 140^06, just 4 pips from the 140^10 MRT, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator becoming more positive. The Econ Baro's week is complete; Q3 Earnings Season concludes today; the BEGOS Markets all have early closures at either 10:15 or 10:45 Pacific Time.
22 Nov '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Thanksgiving-into-Friday session finds Oil the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, -0.7%, followed by the Spoo, -0.2%; to the upside, Gold and the Euro are the firmest, both +0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Values, Oil (in real-time) is some 12 points "low" vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line, whereas the Bond is better than 5 points "high": both readings are extreme, albeit the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator still supports a move to our 140^10 MRT, (price as noted coming yesterday within a pip at 140^09 and the high thus far this session being 140^01). Far more daunting are the 3 periods of measure on the S&P's Moneyflow page suggesting that the Index ought be as much as 500 points lower than the present 2649 level, which is very coincident with our full 27% correction expectation down to S&P 2154.
21 Nov '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Bond yesterday came within 1 pip (140^09) of our 140^10 MRT: the 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains well-positive in support of that target. Oil is recovering a bit, +2.1% and the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, following yesterday's high-low decline of 8.1% (historically there've been intra-day declines approaching double that amount). Firmer as well are Silver and the Spoo, both +0.8%. Volatility is moderate. Given the StateSide holiday, GLOBEX trading has a 5-hour halt tomorrow (from 10:00-15:00 Pacific Time) plus early closes Friday (10:15-10:45 Pacific Time). The Econ Baro looks for a bevy of data today, including Oct's Durable Orders, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales. Q3 Earnings Season wraps up this Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to All!
20 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo and Oil are the BEGOS Markets weak links, respectively -0.8% and -0.4%; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way, albeit Silver just hit a session high as we type, +0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is still positive in support of the 140^10 MRT. Per our 16 Nov. note, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" via Market Trends have since been on the upside move. As noted in The Gold Update, price's movement continues as comparably docile given other components alacrity: the yellow metal (currently 1226) seems entrapped betwixt the base of The Box (1240-1280) and the rising weekly parabolic Long trend flip price of 1196. Oct's Housing Starts/Building Permits come into the Econ Baro.
19 Nov '18, 04:08 Pacific Time: Weakest of the BEGOS Markets to start the week is Oil, -0.6%: still, at 56.64, price is off the recent low of 54.90 following the daily Moneyflow having reached all the way down to 0; however, at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have yet to get up off of the floor, albeit at Market Values, price (in real-time) is better than 11 points "low". To the upside the Swiss Franc leads, +0.4%. Session volatility is mostly light, the exceptions being the Franc and Bond having traded at least 80% of their EDTRs; the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains positive toward maintaining our MRT of 140^10. Nov's NAHB Housing Market Index comes due for the Baro; Q3 Earnings Season concludes this week.
16 Nov '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: Following Oil's daily Moneyflow having hit rock-bottom 0 as noted, price is now gaining for the 3rd straight session, +1.3% and the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo, -0.7%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Bond is rising for the 6th day in-a-row, our MRT of 140^10 still in place given the positive 12-hr. Price Oscillator. At Market Trends, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are just beginning to curl up, albeit they are still below the -80% level. The Econ Baro rounds out its week with Oct's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
15 Nov '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: Again we look to Oil as its daily Moneyflow (scale 100-0) is down to 0, a very rare event and a level from which an in depth study ought show price rebounds, as 'tis a bit this session, +0.4%; cac volume is moving from Dec into Jan, (with some 20¢ of premium). The firmest BEGOS Market is Copper, +1.5%; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way. Volatility is mostly moderate, although the Euro given the UK Brexit minister's resigning has traced 101% of its EDTR. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator is rising in support of our 140^10 MRT. Incoming data for the Econ Baro includes Nov's NY State Empire Index and Philly Fed Index, Oct's Retail Sales and Ex/Im Prices, and Sep's Business Inventories.
14 Nov '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil from yesterday into today is looking to survive structural support 'round 55; 'tis at present 55.75, +0.9%, the BEGOS Markets best gainer, followed by Copper, +0.4%; weakest of the bunch are the Swiss Franc and Silver, both -0.3%; volatility is moderate. The Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed the crossing to Long (yesterday at 12:00 Pacific Time) from 138^19 (now 138^24) which per the Market Rhythms list gives us an MRT of $1,700/cac higher (+1^23) at 140^10. Brexit is on today's UK Cabinet agenda. And following a quiet start to the week, the Econ Baro receives a dozen metrics into week's end, today featuring Oct's CPI.
13 Nov '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oh wow Oil: at one point yesterday 'twas +2.4% from Friday's settle, only to then plunge -4.2% intra-day; for this session 'tis presently 58.73, -0.2%, as is Gold, both the weakest of the BEGOS Markets; firmest is Copper, +1.6%: the red metal has traced 143% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise moderate. Several components are triggering signals for MRTs, none of which we favour (Spoo daily Moneyflow Long, Copper daily Parabolics Short, Gold daily Price Oscillator Short); one which we are eying is the Bond's 12-hr. Price Oscillator crossing to Long, but not as yet confirmed.
12 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Oil is the BEGOS Markets' big mover to start the week, its opening trade at 60.70 producing an up gap of 83¢, to then move higher still to 61.28; at present price is 60.63, +1.3%. Weakest is the Euro, -0.6% which is sporting an EDTR tracing of 118%. Session volatility looks to be moderate-to-robust. StateSide, the physical Bond floor is closed for Veterans Day how GLOBEX is trading its normal 23-hour daily cycle. Even with Oil's bounce, by our Market Values page price is some 10 points "low", whilst at Market Trends the "Baby Blues" continue their floor crawl; thus should a furthering Oil rally ensue given these oversold measures, technically we see room for a move higher into structural resistance in the upper 65s; Oil's recent downtrend low from Friday is 59.26.
09 Nov '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil, -1.6%, and Copper, -1.2%, are leading most of the BEGOS Markets lower: only the Bond, +0.4%, is in the black: volatility is moderate. The FinMedia are pointing to Oil's current skid (-12% from a month ago) as its "worst decline ever", which without our specifically assessing the data is likely an exaggeration; currently 59.81, we see structural support in the 55s from Jan a year ago. The PMs continue to see their "Baby Blues" as displayed at Market Trends working lower such as to pass (in real-time) below their 0% axes, suggestive of still lower levels. Due for the Econ Baro are Nov's UofM Sentiment Survey, Oct's PPI and Sep's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Nov '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: At this time yesterday, all 8 BEGOS Markets were in the black; now just 2 are, led by Oil, +0.4% and the Bond, +0.2%; weakest is Copper, -0.9%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Spoo's low-high range yesterday was 73 points (2.7%) as compared to post-election day two years ago which was 138 points (6.8%), the market this year not being surprised as noted. Recall in late Oct the Spoo by our Market Values being some 200 points "low": that has now been recaptured in full; but by the Moneyflow page (not to mention the "live" P/E of 46.3x), the S&P 500 remains treacherously overvalued (understatement). Also at Market Values, Oil appears as nearly 10 points "low" and Gold nearly 50 points "high": the present edition of The Gold Update offers a sub-1200 move scenario post-election, and at Market Trends, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall.
07 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly robust but far less so than what we witnessed through the night of the election two years ago as this time 'round, the high-level view shows the results coming in as projected/expected. Still, the Bond, EuroCurrencies and PMs all have traced well-beyond 100% of their EDTRs and all 8 components are higher at the expense of the Dollar; leading the pack is Oil, +1.9%, followed by Gold and Silver both +1.0%, and then the Spoo, +0.9%. Late in the session Sep's Consumer Credit comes due for the Econ Baro and the FOMC's 2-day meeting begins.
06 Nov '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Of top import is the volatility for the 07 Nov session from its 15:00 PT opening this afternoon concurrent with the closing of some StateSide election polls: recall in 2016 Gold tracing 5 times its EDTR and the Spoo 7 times same; this time 'round toward that pace, an overnight "lock limit" (5% up or down) would be enforced. On verra. For the present session, similar to yesterday volatility mostly is light with nothing due for the Econ Baro and the elections in the balance. Both Gold and Silver lead to the upside at +0.3%, whilst weakest is the Spoo, -0.3%. Be mindful of tonight's thin trading conditions and swift market speed.
05 Nov '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: A measure of the Spoo this session has it within a narrower range than we've seen to this point in at least the prior 4 sessions; TradeTalk with China aside, the markets may be going into the "calm before the storm" of the Tue/Wed election session upon which we elaborate in The Gold Update; especially take note of "The S&P 500 --Moneyflow" under our Contact Links (at left). Save for Copper which is -1.4% and has traced 88% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets are otherwise narrowly mixed and volatility is light. The Spoo's daily MACD confirmed a Long signal effective this session's open, as did Copper's daily Parabolics as well to Long: however with the elections looming, the fundamental risk here in shooting for their MRTs may well be worth avoiding. Oct's ISM(Svc) is due for the Econ Baro.
02 Nov '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Time was a few years back that Apple seemed to be the entire S&P as we'd depicted in a edition of The Gold Update; today with AAPL -7% pre-open, the Spoo nonetheless is +0.9%, 2nd only to Copper's being +2.0%, as like yesterday we've all the BEGOS Markets higher except for the Bond (-0.3%). Still, ahead of what ought start as a fourth day of gains for the S&P, per the Moneyflow page, the Index "ought be" 200-300 points lower across the three time-frame measures. And for a 2nd straight day the PMs are rising: StateSide pre-election (06 Nov) jitters? Oct's payroll data comes into the Econ Baro as does Sep's Trade Deficit and Factory Orders.
01 Nov '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is lower, -0.2%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets all presently posting gains with Sister Silver leading the way, +1.2%, followed by Gold, +0.7%; the Spoo, which we calculate as having been negatively correlated with Gold over the past 28 trading days, also is up, +0.6%. Volatility ranges from light for Oil with just a 29% EDTR tracing, to robust for the PMs and EuroCurrencies, their EDTR tracing exceeding 100%: there is positive Brexit buzz on UK banks being able to potentially operate in the EU. 'Tis a big day of incoming data for the Econ Baro, including Q3's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Oct's ISM(Mfg) Index and Vehicle Sales, and Sep's Construction Spending.
31 Oct '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: As noted, Copper's 6-hr. Parabolics did see price reach down to 2.6755, and then some; this session, the red metal is otherwise quiet. The Spoo leads to the upside, +0.6%, but save for Oil (+0.1%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Silver, -0.9%. To this point of the session, the Spoo's ranginess has narrowed from that of recent days, so trading may appear a bit tighter as the day unfolds, suggesting the present EDTR of 63 points shan't nearly be traced. Our "live" P/E for the S&P is 43.8x and the Gold/Silver ratio is 85.1x. ADP's Oct jobs data comes into the Econ Baro as does Q3's Employment Cost Index.
30 Oct '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: The S&P swung 103 points yesterday from high-to-low, the EDTR now up to 62 points; only the Spoo is positive, +0.5% in this session for which overall volatility is moderate. Weakest of the bunch is Gold, -0.7%: its "Baby Blues" per Market Trends have begun rolling over, crossing below their +80% axis; this last occurred on 01 Feb, from which price sunk 48 points, a repeat of which would obviously put price back down into the 1100s. Copper yesterday reached its MRT of 2.7045 (see 26 Oct); further, the red metal's 6-hr. Parabolics are suggestive of price reaching lower to 2.6755. Oct's Consumer Confidence comes into the Econ Baro.
29 Oct '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: The Spoo starts the week as the BEGOS Markets upside leader, +1.1%, followed at a distance by Copper, +0.5%; the balance of the bunch all are lower, Oil being the weakest, -0.5% followed by Gold, -0.3%; per The Gold Update, Gold is getting more FinMedia notice, but without any material progress for price. Session volatility is moderate. Per Market Values, there are 3 notable extreme readings: in real-time, Gold shows as 43 points "high", Oil as 4 points "low" and the Spoo as 175 points "low"; still, the Moneyflow page suggests more S&P fallout lies ahead. A busy week for the Econ Baro kicks off with the Fed's favoured Core PCE reading for September, along with Personal Income/Spending.
26 Oct '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Tech wreck earnings are pulling the Spoo back down by -0.9% with Copper the weakest BEGOS Markets performer, -1.4%; we've an MRT nearly already reached on the red metal as measured from this session's opening level of 2.7525 (now 2.7190) for 2.7045 toward meeting the $1,200/cac target as currently listed on the Market Rhythms page. The Bond, +0.4%, is the firmest of the components, followed by the PMs; session volatility is moderate; the Spoo's EDTR is 55 points. The highlight of the session is Q3 GDP, for which some slowing from Q2's +4.2% pace is expected, certainly so per the declining Econ Baro.
25 Oct '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil again is the upside leader, similarly up 1.0% was 'twas 'round this point yesterday; both the Bond and Swiss Franc are the weak links at -0.2%; volatility is moderate; Gold is "unch'", but playing catch-up is Silver, +0.5%, their ratio at 83.7x. Despite the Spoo's recent sliding, ('tis +0.4% in this session), the "live" P/E remains a dauntingly high 45.1x, and from the Moneyflow page, all three duration measures suggest still lower levels ahead; however per Market Values, the Spoo appears 200 points "low" and "low" as well per Market Magnets by some 70 points. Sep's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales are due for the Econ Baro.
24 Oct '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Following yesterday's 0.5% drop in the S&P, the Spoo at present is -0.6%, as is the Euro; the upside leader is Oil, +1.0%, whilst Gold is "unch" in continuing to cling to the 1230 area; session volatility ranges from light for the PMs to robust for the Euro, the latter's EDTR tracing at 108%. Per Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" real-time reading shows them with an up-kink for the first time in some 2 weeks, without the dots having crossed sub-0%: again by historical Gold/Silver ratio measuring, Silver remains well "low" (and Gold not too "high" given its absurd under-valuation to currency debasement). Today (not yesterday as we'd erroneously stated) brings Sep's New Home Sales come into the Econ Baro.
23 Oct '18, 03:59 Central Euro Time: Very early on the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way with one exception: the Spoo is -0.5%, followed by Oil, -0.3%; volatility is expectedly light to this point, albeit the Spoo has already traced 41% of its EDTR, which now is up to 46 points per session; per Market Values, the Spoo is some 140 points "low", but both the monthly and quarterly Moneyflow measures on the S&P are suggestive of still lower levels; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are just now reaching down to their -80% level.
22 Oct '18, 09:20 Central Euro Time: On the heels of China's robust start to the week, most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led (not surprisingly) by Copper, +1.2%, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 72%; only the Bond and Gold are flat to mildly lower; volatility is trending toward moderate, the Spoo's EDTR tracing already up to 62%. The Gold Update points to the safe haven/technical bid supporting the yellow metal, which month-over-month is the only net positive performer (+2%) of the 5 primary BEGOS components. 'Tis a light load of incoming data for the Econ Baro this week, the exception being Friday's first peek at Q3 GDP which is"expected" to have slowed by nearly 1%.
19 Oct '18, 09:40 Central Euro Time: The metals are bracketing the BEGOS Markets' moves early on with Copper up the most at +0.5% and Gold down the most at -0.2%; light volatility ought push to at least moderate by mid-session. From Market Trends, the respective "Baby Blues" for Oil, Copper, Silver and the Spoo are all falling; those for Gold continue to rise, albeit the 1230s for the yellow metal are being resistive; moreover, there appears structural resistance up to the 1245 level. By Market Magnets, Gold shows as 15 points "high" and Oil as better than 3 points "low". Sep's Existing Home Sales conclude the week for the Econ Baro
18 Oct '18, 11:47 Central Euro Time: Oil's cac volume is moving from Nov into Dec, for which there is very little premium; however, -1.4%, Oil as well as Copper are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower save for mild gains in the EuroCurrencies and Gold. Per Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are only just now crossing their 0% access, suggestive of further room to fall: currently trading in the 69s, the overall swath from 70-to-67 appears as structural support, whilst at Market Magnets price is nearly 3 full points "low". The Econ Baro is set to receive Oct's Philly Fed Index and Sep's lagging read on Leading Indicators, for which the Baro implies may miss the +0.5% monthly grow consensus expectation.
17 Oct '18, 09:59 Central Euro Time: Copper, -0.6%, thus far is the weakest BEGOS Market in an otherwise mixed session; volatility is light but ought grow toward moderate; at Market Ranges, Gold, Oil and the Spoo have all notably increased their EDTRs of late. Despite yesterday's run-up in the S&P, it remains the case that the Spoo measures as 100 points "low" per Market Values, but the S&P remains "high" by all three time frames on its Moneyflow page, and per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are working lower still. Through yesterday's S&P rise, Gold's being buoyant is a sign of resilience; also as noted, an up kink in the "Baby Blues" for the Swiss Franc suggests higher levels near-term. Sep's Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro today, plus due are the 26 Sep FOMC Minutes.
16 Oct '18, 10:35 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by the Spoo, +0.5%, and on the downside by Oil, -0.8%; the latter's "Baby Blues" (per Market trends) peaked 7 sessions ago with price in the 74 handle: 'tis now in the 71s. Overall session volatility is light-to-moderate. In real-time, the Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are rising for the 1st time in better than 3 weeks: should this be a change in trend, with price currently 1.0178, there appears structural room to run up toward to 1.3070 level. Due for the Econ Baro are Sep's Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization and Oct's NAHB Housing Index.
15 Oct '18, 08:06 Central Euro Time: The Spoo, -0.6%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets in kicking off the week, The Gold Update suggestive of Gold getting a grip with the outlook being for the S&P to further dip; per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue their fall, now in real-time down to -50%, a level not seen since 09 July; the Spoo's somewhat swift drop has price, per Market Values, some 150 points "low": however by the Moneyflow page, the suggestion is for further fallout. Firmest of the bunch is Oil, +0.5%, followed by Gold, +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Oct's NY Empire State Index, Sep's Retail Sales and Aug's Business Inventories all start a busy week for the Econ Baro.
12 Oct '18, 09:47 Central Euro Time: The S&P in continuing its correction yesterday to as low as 2711 thus far marks a 7.8% pullback; as noted, 10% = 2646 and the critical hold area essentially is the 2500s. Friday's session to this point is finding some firmness, with both the Spoo and Oil +1.0%, led further by Copper, +1.4%; Gold is the weak component, -0.4%; volatility is mostly moderate with the Spoo leading the EDTR tracings at 99%; mind the Market Ranges page as obviously some EDTRs are working higher, (the Spoo for example having already hit its "high if an up day" guesstimate per the BEGOS page for the S&P 500). Sep's Ex/Im pricing and Oct's UofM Sentiment Survey come due for the Econ Baro.
11 Oct '18, 09:01 Central Euro Time: The Spoo (2764) is working lower following yesterday's 3.3% drop in the S&P itself; there is structural support throughout the 2500s, however a break below S&P 2532 would be an opportunity for selling to accelerate; from the all-time high of 2940 (22 Sep) the 5% correction was passed by yesterday at 2793, the 10% correction would arrive at 2646, and "our" full (once 25% now 27%) correction remains targeted for S&P 2154. The balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets have not been equally responsive to the Spoo's move, although overall volatility is moderate and -- specific to the Spoo -- it has already traded 110% of this session's EDTR. The Econ Baro awaits Sep's CPI.
10 Oct '18, 08:48 Central Euro Time: Similar to this point yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed; no one component is (as present) changed by more than 0.2% either way and volatility is light. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" for both Silver and Oil are curling lower from high levels; at Market Values, Oil appears a full 5 points "high" and the Bond a full 5 points "low"; at Market Ranges, the EDTRs for both the Bond and the Spoo are increasing and are higher than they were from a week ago; coming into the Econ Baro today are Sep's PPI and Aug's Wholesale Inventories.
09 Oct '18, 08:19 Central Euro Time: Mildly mixed are the BEGOS Markets early in the Tues session with Oil up the most at +0.5% and each of the Bond, Euro, Swiss Franc and Spoo all -0.1%; volatility to this point is light but ought move on to at least moderate as the session unfolds. With much FinMedia ado about Gold having likely put in its low for the year (1167 on 16 Aug), as is the market's contrarian wont, price traded yesterday to as low as 1186; moreover per Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" reading in real-time have lurched lower, suggestive of testing that low, albeit the Market Profile is indicative of support in the 1190-1188 zone, (current = 1194).
08 Oct '18, 08:02 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper's starting the week +0.3%, the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets presently are all in the red, the most so being Silver, -1.2%, followed by Oil, -0.7%. The Gold Update notes how Silver month-over-month had climbed a net 3.5%, (over which stint Gold netted no change); still, the Gold/Silver ratio remains above the 80x level (82.8x "live" reading). As for Oil, by Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are just starting to roll over from above their +80% zone: with price currently 73.82, initial Market Profile support shows at 73.40, then dominantly so at 72.30. Meanwhile the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their move lower.
05 Oct '18, 07:40 Central Euro Time: Only Oil and the Spoo are thus far higher, the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the red, but just mildly so, the weakest component being Copper, -0.3%; volatility is light to this point, but we expect it will pick up, especially given yesterday's drop in the Spoo, its net 16-point pull-back being the most since 30 August; the down day was also enough to bring price just about in line with the Market Values smooth valuation line; but for the Bond, price is now more than 6 points below its valuation measure. Sep's Payrolls data and Aug's Trade Deficit come due for the Econ Baro.
04 Oct '18, 06:34 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets early on are mixed with volatility running at a light-to-moderate pace. To the upside, the leader is Copper, +0.3%, whilst the weak link is the Bond, -0.4%, despite our noting yesterday its low Market Values stance and rising "Baby Blues", the latter in real-time continuing to so do; still, price is down to its lowest level since September 2014; the Bond is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 70%. The Dollar is poised to gain for the 7th consecutive session. Due for the Econ Baro today is Aug's Factory Orders.
03 Oct '18, 08:37 Central Euro Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, both of which are off but -0.1%, the balance of the 6 other BEGOS Markets are up, led by Copper, +0.3%, and then the Euro, Silver and Oil, all +0.3%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Per Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are more notably curling up from the floor, not so much much as price is rising, but rather consolidating: with price presently 140 ^04, the Bond's Market Profile shows a block of resistance spanning up to 140^16; yet at Market Values, price shows as nearly 5 full points below the smooth valuation line. Sep's ADP Employment Change and ISM(Svc) highlight the Econ Baro's incoming metrics.
02 Oct '18, 08:37 Central Euro Time: 'Tis worth nothing the divergence between the buoyant -- albeit somewhat struggling -- S&P, and the falling Econ Baro, for which Sep's Vehicle Sales are to arrive during today's session. There's firmness in the PMs, led by Silver, +0.6%, whilst the Euro is off the most at -0.4% and is also the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with an 55% EDTR tracing; similar to yesterday, volatility which to this point is light ought become moderate as the day unfolds. At Market Values, Oil is reading nearly 7 points "high", as extreme a reading as recorded in better than a year; presently trading at 75.85, Oil's Market Profile suggests support at 74.70, then at 73.40; 72.30 is the most heavily-traded handle these past two weeks.
01 Oct '18, 06:56 Central Euro Time: Early on, the Spoo is the new week's upside leader at +0.5% as traders embrace a new "USMC" version of NAFTA; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver and Copper, both -0.4%; session volatility is light, yet we 'spect 'twill skew toward moderate as the session unfolds. The Gold Update -- in its usual emphasis of the yellow metal being vastly undervalued but nonetheless precariously poised toward a weekly parabolic trend flip back to Short -- cites high-level analysts warning of the stock market's "kool-aid" levels. Sep's ISM(Mfg) and Aug's Construction Spending kick off the Econ Baro's week.
28 Sep '18, 13:02 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Silver, +0.5%, as the upside leader, but the Euro on the opposite end, down by same; the Euro is also the rangiest of the bunch with an 82% EDTR tracing. 2nd-weakest is the Spoo, -0.3%; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. At Market Trends, the Bond's being +0.2% is helping the "Baby Blues" to curl a bit higher; however, those for the Swiss Franc are beginning to accelerate lower; thus by "conventional wisdom", various markets' relationships are seemingly out-of-sync. Due for the Econ Baro today are Aug's Core PCE along with Personal Income and Spending.
27 Sep '18, 14:28 Central Euro Time: With the no-surprise FedFunds hike and outlook behind us, the BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper, -1.0%; leading to the upside is Oil, +0.4%, and rangiest is the Swiss Franc with an EDTR tracing of 117%; otherwise, session volatility is moderate. Per Market Trends the Bond's "Baby Blues" are beginning to curl up from the floor, albeit they're still below the -80% level. Per Market Profiles, the Spoo penetrated the 2912 supporter earlier in the session, only to now sit just above it at 2914. Imminently due for the Econ Baro are Aug's Durable Goods and the final read in Q3 GDP, followed later by Aug's Pending Home Sales.
26 Sep '18, 12:10 Central Euro Time: Ahead of the Fed's 0.25% rate hike at 11:00 Pacific/14:00 Eastern/20:00 CET we've the BEGOS Markets not surprisingly little changed in either direction and volatility is light. Post-Fed market trading reactions in recent years have been far more muted than in those of decades past, and since the Fed shall give the rate hike expected, we expect nothing different this time 'round; 'course, there is a follow-up press conference to nudge things about a bit. Prior to the announcement, the Econ Baro looks for an increase in Aug's New Home Sales.
25 Sep '18, 14:09 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are a mixed bag, led on the upside by Silver, +0.4%, and on the downside by the Bond, -0.2%; volatility is again moderate. At Market Values we show the Bond as being a full 5 points "too low", whilst despite the Spoo putting in a down day yesterday, 'tis showing in real-time as a full 50 points "too high" (and the "live" P/E is 51.6x); further per Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to be unsupportive of that component's buoyancy of now nearly three weeks. The Econ Baro receives Sep's Consumer Confidence.
24 Sep '18, 12:20 Central Euro Time: Oil, +1.9%, is the BEGOS Markets leader in starting the new week; weakest is the Bond, -0.3%; Oil is also the rangiest component with an 80% EDTR tracing, the volatility for the balance of the bunch also essentially moderate. The Spoo has not charted beneath its smooth valuation line since 05 July and is at present per Market Values 45 points "high" in real-time. The Gold Update characterizes price as being both downside protected and upside suppressed such as to sport a narrow weekly trading range (less than 20 points for last week) from which volatility tends to pick up: given the fresh new parabolic weekly Long trend is but two weeks in duration, we'd argue time is on Gold's side to break out higher, but at this instant 'tis literally "unch" as the week begins.
21 Sep '18, 15:06 Central Euro Time: Our MRT for the Spoo of 2860.75 has evaporated, its daily MACD confirming back to positive and the SPX itself moving up into uncharted territory and in turn sending our "live" P/E of the S&P to the ridiculous extreme of 52.1x. Copper leads the session to the upside, +1.1%, followed by Oil, +0.8%: these two BEGOS Markets components had been in negative correlation, but of late have been coming 'round to that which is positive. The Spoo is but +0.1% and the balance of the bunch are lower. No data is due for the Econ Baro, however next week brings what is expected to be another 0.25% FedFunds hike.
20 Sep '18, 12:07 Central Euro Time: Little changed are the BEGOS Markets with a good dose of incoming Econ Data waiting in the wings for the Econ Baro, including Sep's Philly Fed Index plus Aug's Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, the latter for which the Baro suggests ought be muted at best. Rangiest of the components thus far is Silver with a 76% EDTR tracing; the balance of the bunch show light-to-moderate volatility. Ever so barely negative remains the daily MACD for the Spoo, that study thus still barely supportive of the 2860.75 MRT, and per Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are a skosh lower.
19 Sep '18, 18:27 Central Euro Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, the upside leader being Oil, +1.3%, and the volatility leader being the Swiss Franc with an EDTR tracing of 125%, followed closely by the Bond at 122%. Volatility is otherwise moderate, the precious metals also getting a bid today. The Spoo's daily MACD is now just barely negative with the MRT of 2860.75 facing the threat of becoming nixed upon the signal confirming its swing to positive prior to the MRT being reached. Aug's Housing Starts improved, but its Building Permits weakened.
18 Sep '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil's cac volume has rolled from Oct into Nov; both Oil and Copper are +1.7%, the firmest of the BEGOS Markets; the red metal is vibrant with an EDTR tracing of 192%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate; the weak link is the Bond, -0.2%. The Spoo, albeit +0.2%, still has lacked the necessary upside to bring the daily MACD back to positive; thus the 2860.75 MRT remains in force; in real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall, now at +36% their lowest reading in better than 3 weeks. The Econ Baro looks to Sep's NAHB Housing Index.
17 Sep '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: With cac volume on the Spoo having rolled from Sep to Dec, we're revising up by 5 points of new premium our MRT per the negative daily MACD to 2860.75. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are lower still, and it and the Bond are the only 2 BEGOS Markets in the red to start the week. Firmest is Silver, +0.9%: The Gold Update depicts the extremely high Gold/Silver ratio at 85.1x; the white is picking up more ground today than is the yellow metal, +0.2%; as well, Silver is the rangiest of the BEGOS bunch with an EDTR tracing of 66%; overall session volatility is mostly moderate. Sep's NY State Empire Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
14 Sep '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Spoo's daily MACD is still negative, but becoming less so: a firm up session could lead to nixing our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep) upon confirming the study flipping to positive; cac volume is moving from Sep to Dec as it also is for the FX futs. Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs, Gold and Silver both being +0.4%; only the Bond is lower, -0.2%; Copper is rangiest with a 64% EDTR tracing and session volatility is mostly moderate. A cavalcade of 8 EconData metrics are set to hit the Econ Baro as the session unfolds, including Aug's Retail Sales.
13 Sep '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: Copper again is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, +0.6%; weakest is Oil, -1.2%, which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 84%. The other components are mildly changed either way, and volatility otherwise is mostly light as 'twas yesterday. The Spoo's daily MACD continues its negative journey toward keeping our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep) intact; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" continue to fall and price remains above the Market Values smooth valuation line. The ECB delivers a policy statement followed by a Draghi press conference. Stateside, the CPI comes due for the Econ Baro.
12 Sep '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for Copper, which is +0.6% with a robust EDTR tracing of 113%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light; looming late in the session is the Fed's Tan Tome for Aug. Despite the Spoo having moved up yesterday, the daily MACD remains negative in maintaining our MRT of 2855.75 (basis Sep); at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are in real-time more notably beginning to break down without having achieved +80% on their upside run; the real-time Market Values reading shows the Spoo some 36 points above its smooth valuation line. Aug's PPI works into the Econ Baro.
11 Sep '18, 17:21 Pacific Time: Web pages have since been updated for trade date 11 Sep '18. Thank you for your patience. Our web pages are not being updated for this trade date due to intermittencies in the feed from the data provider.
11 Sep '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Another mixed bag for the BEGOS Markets, with Oil again leading to the upside, +0.4%, the weakest component this time being Silver, -0.4%; Gold again finds itself sub-1200; Copper, which presently is "unch" is nonetheless the rangiest of the bunch with an 87% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's daily MACD has furthered its negativity, our MRT remaining intact for 2855.75: given the cac volume rolling into Dec toward week's end, we'd add 4 point to that Target should it not first be reached (or nixed) before the volume roll. Jul's Wholesale Inventories come into the Econ Baro today.
10 Sep '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil, +0.5%, and the Spoo +0.4%, are the BEGOS Markets' upside leaders in starting the week. Down the most is the Swiss Franc, -0.5%, which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 101%; session volatility otherwise is moderate. The Spoo's being higher is not enough to put off the MRT of 2855.75 as the daily MACD has furthered its negativity; per Market Values, the Spoo's real-time reading shows as some 43 points above its smooth valuation line; presently 2886, the Spoo's Market Profile shows trading resistors at 2889 and then 2897. Jul Consumer Credit comes due late in the session.
07 Sep '18, 04:14 Pacific Time: That which we at present see may well be moot with Aug's Payrolls data, TariffTalk and FedSpeak in the session's balance. The PMs, which seem to regularly give back gains are again the BEGOS Markets firmest components, Silver +0.3% followed by Gold +0.1%; the balance of the bunch are "unch" to lower, Copper being the weakest at -0.2%. The Spoo's daily MACD confirmed its negative cross: as measured from this session's opening of 2877.75, we've an MRT of 22 points lower to 2855.75 ($1,100/cac); as well, our "live" p/e of the S&P 500 is 50.6x and per Market Values the Spoo (in real-time) is some 36 points above its smooth valuation line.
06 Sep '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo's daily MACD provisionally has crossed to negative: we'll see if that confirms for an MRT at session's end. The metals are the BEGOS Markets leaders to the upside, led by Copper +1.5%, Gold +0.8% and Silver +0.6%; the red metal is also the rangiest component, tracing 111% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is again mostly moderate. At Market Profiles, the Bond is clinging to major 10-day trading support at 143^06, helped by the firmer metals and weaker Spoo. 'Tis a busy day of incoming EconData for the Econ Baro, including Aug's ADP and ISM(Svc) numbers, Jul's Factory Orders, and revisions to Q2's Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
05 Sep '18, 04:14 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. Copper is the upside leader, +0.6%, mirrored to the downside by Oil, -0.6%; rangiest is the Euro with a 77% EDTR tracing. The Spoo's daily MACD is nearing a negative crossover: were that to confirm in the ensuing days, we'd get an MRT of 22 points lower ($1,100/cac); as well, the Spoo still has some 63 points (in real-time) to work off above its smooth valuation line at Market Values; the other 4 primary BEGOS components are fairly close to their valuation lines. The Econ Baro takes in the Jul Trade Deficit.
04 Sep '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues, now finding every BEGOS Market lower except Oil, which is +1.9% over Gulf Coast storm concerns. Copper is the weakest component, -2.2%, in the process nixing our MRT of 2.7790. 2nd-weakest is Silver, -2.1%; Gold has marginally slipped sub-1200. The Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Values are accelerating their decline, however price (thus far) has held at mid-143s structural support. The Spoo (-0.3%) by Market Values is some 73 points "high" in real-time above its smooth valuation line. Aug's ISM(Mfg) and Jul's Construction Spending come due for the Econ Baro.
03 Sep '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: StateSide physical bourses are closed, however the two-day GLOBEX session is well underway, the firmest two BEGOS Markets being the Euro and the Spoo, both +0.2%, and Gold the rangiest of the bunch with a 66% tracing of its EDTR; the weak components are the Swiss Franc and Silver, both -0.1%. Our MRT for Copper of 2.7790 is still alive, but price has come off, presently 2.6670 having been as high as 2.7665 during this parabolic Long run: a move sub-2.6220 (today) would flip the signal to Short, that hurdle rising at a pace of about 1¢ per session. The week's fairly busy schedule of incoming EconData commences tomorrow.
31 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Today 'tis the Bond's turn to roll its cac volume from Sep into Dec, for which there is nearly a full point of discount in price; but the BEGOS Markets' price movement is led by the PMs, with Silver +0.8% and Gold +0.5%; the yellow metal is also the EDTR tracings leader at 79%; otherwise, session volatility is light-to-moderate. The daily Parabolics on Copper remain Long such that the 2.7790 MRT is still in play. Weakest of the components is Oil, -0.3%. The Spoo has unwound a bit of its extreme "high" reading at Market Values, albeit in real-time is reading 79 points "high" above the smooth valuation line. The Econ Baro closes out Aug with its reading of the Chicago PMI.
30 Aug '18, 04:11 Pacific Time: Save for Oil, +0.3%, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver, -0.7%; the white metal's cac volume is rolling from Sep into Dec. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, the EDTR tracings led by Silver and Copper, both at 70%. Copper's daily Parabolics are still Long in support of the MRT of 2.7790. As anticipated, the Bond's "Baby Blues" at Market Values are (in real-time) now sub-80%, albeit price is trying to maintain a grip here in the mid-144s, barring slipping to the mid-143s. Incoming data for the Econ Baro includes Jul's Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favoured Core PCE inflation reading.
29 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: 24 hours on finds Copper this time the BEGOS Markets' weakest component, -0.7%; cac volume for the red metal is rolling from Sep into Dec, for which the daily Parabolics remain Long, our 2.7790 thus still in play. Oil has whirled back up, today at +0.5% the firmest of the bunch. Session volatility is light at best. At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are rolling over such that by the current real-time reading of +82% they'll be sub-80% by tomorrow: should price clustering in the mid-144s fail to hold, a test of the mid-143s would structurally seem likely. The Econ Baro gets its 2nd peek at Q2 GDP as well as Jul's Pending Home Sales.
28 Aug '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: Copper is the BEGOS Markets' firmest component, +0.8%, whilst the Bond and Oil are the weak links, but only mildly so, both -0.1%; leading the EDTR tracings is the Swiss Franc at 90%; volume otherwise is light-to-moderate. Our MRT for Copper of 2.7790 (basis Dec) is intact as the daily Parabolics continue their Long ascent. Silver's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have climbed up above the -80% level, suggestive of still higher prices: structurally, clearing 15.000 ought open the door to 15.250. At Market Values, the Spoo has returned to an extreme "high" reading with price 100 points above the smooth valuation line; the "live" p/e is now up to 51.2x. Aug's Consumer Confidence comes into the Econ Baro.
27 Aug '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate, the BEGOS Markets fairly mixed in starting the week: firmest is Copper, +0.4%, but tied with Oil ("unch") for the least rangy component, both tracing just 30% of their EDTRs; Silver is the weakest of the bunch, -0.3%; most rangy is the Euro with a 72% EDTR tracing. Copper's cac volume has yet to fully roll into the Dec cac, however we've a fresh MRT for the red metal: the daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Long which as measured from the session's open of 2.7230 basis Dec gives us a Target of 2.7790 ($1,400/cac). The Gold Update cites the yellow metal having just completed its 3rd best up week year-to-date, the 10-day Market Profile giving us a supportive look. No incoming data today for the Econ Baro with 10 metrics due in the week's balance.
24 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only the Bond is lower, just -0.1%, the balance of the BEGOS Markets being higher with both Copper and Oil +1.3%; volatility is moderate. The Spoo points to a higher open for the S&P, albeit again at the Moneyflow page, the Index appears some 200 points inflated as measured over both the last month and quarter; as well, our "live" p/e remains above 50x; and by its Market Value in real-time, the Spoo is 77 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; similarly near an extreme "high" reading is the Bond, some 2 1/2 points above its line. For the Econ Baro today we get Jul's Durable Orders; Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole conference.
23 Aug '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are "unch" to lower, the weakest components being the metals with both Silver and Copper -1.2%, with Gold -0.5% and back sub-1200. Session volatility is light-to-moderate. The S&P yesterday failed to make a run for a record high as was barely achieved on Tuesday; the Spoo presently is mildly lower. No fresh MRTs have appeared the radar this week, however there are 17 on the watch list at the Market Rhythms page. The Kansas City Fed opens its annual conference in Jackson Hole. Jul's New Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
22 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: A mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, no one component changed by more than 0.4% either way, except for Oil, +1.2% and Silver, +0.6%; volatility is moderate. The S&P made a marginal all-time high (2873.23) yesterday by less than 1 point before sliding lower over the session's final 3 hours; our "live" p/e for the Index is 50.0x, and by Market Values the Spoo in real-time reads 82 points "high"; as well, all three readings on the Moneyflow page (week, month, quarter) are unsupportive of the Index's present level. Jul's Existing Home Sales arrive for the Econ Baro. The minutes from the FOMC's 31 Jul/01 Aug meeting come due, for which there was no follow-up press conference.
21 Aug '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, -0.3%, the BEGOS Markets are up, led by Copper, +1.0%. The Swiss Franc is the rangiest of the bunch, sporting an EDTR tracing of 96%, with price recapturing almost a month's worth of downtrend; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. Gold is clawing away to regain the 1200s, the resistor per the Market Profile being 1201; but above 1204 there is room to run back up to 1220; supporters are 1193 and 1184. At Market Values, the Spoo continues to be quite "high" (91 points in real-time) above its smooth valuation line.
20 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed in starting the week, with Copper firmest at +0.5% and Oil weakest at -0.4%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold's reported "change" of being +10 points belies that 8 of those came Friday post-COMEX close, such that from Friday's GLOBEX settle price actually is just +2 at 1194; The Gold Update notes the Gold/Silver ratio again exceeds the 80x threshold; the missive also notes Gold as having been at 1245 better than a year ago when the Dollar Index was 'round the same level 'tis today. We've a slow week for incoming Econ Data, with nothing due for the Econ Baro until Wednesday, the FOMC's 31 Jul/01 Aug meeting minutes also due that day.
17 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Only the Spoo is lower, and just barely at that, the upside leader of the BEGOS Markets being Oil, +0.7%, and for which the cac volume is moving from Sep into Oct. Volatility is moderate across the board. Oil's 6-hr. MACD is nearing a positive cross, which if confirmed would signal an MRT of 1.10 points higher ($1,100/cac) from the opening price of the subsequent period. Gold has only mildly recovered from a Market Magnet deviation of -31 points, its most extreme reading in the last three months. The Econ Baro today takes in Aug's UofM Sentiment reading and Jul's Leading Indicators, the +0.5% expectation rather belied by the declining Baro itself.
16 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is moderate-to-robust: mind the Market Ranges page for EDTRs to increase. Gold (+0.4%), in trading between the 1160s and 1180s this session, is sporting the widest EDTR tracing at 178%; Silver (+1.2%) is the firmest of the bunch. At Market Values, Oil is -5 points below its smooth valuation line, the deviation a "extreme" low from the norm. More data comes into the Econ Baro today from Aug's Philly Fed Index and Jul's Housing Starts/Permits; Q2 Earnings Season winds down into week's end.
15 Aug '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: 8 trading days following Copper's daily Parabolics having flipped to Short, the 2.6705 MRT was achieved in today's -2.6% fallout of the red metal, which also leads the EDTR tracings at 146%; 2nd rangiest is Silver (-1.6%) with a 136% tracing and price back down into the 14s making 2 1/2-year lows. Volatility is moderate-to-robust for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower save for the Bond, +0.4%. At Market Trends, only that for the Spoo is up: however the "Baby Blues" therein have resumed their fall, now in real-time down to the +48% level. 'Tis an unusually large amount of incoming EconData today with 9 metrics due for the EconBaro.
14 Aug '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is light-to-moderate, which are mixed as some firmness returns to the Turkish Lira. Our upside leader is Oil, +0.7%, and the weak link is Copper, -0.6%; the latter's 2.6705 MRT remains in place as the daily Parabolics continue their skid; the Swiss Franc leads the EDTR tracings at 95%. As the Spoo recovers some ground today, its Market Value reading is nonetheless running in real-time 77 points "high" above the smooth valuation line; the other four primary BEGOS components are not showing any extreme value readings. Ex/Im prices for Jul come into today's Econ Baro.
13 Aug '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Gold Updates touts the yellow metal as coming in for a soft landing, however both Gold and Silver are -1.0% -- the session's downside leaders -- followed by Copper, -0,9%, and Oil, -0.6%: only the Bond and Swiss Franc are marginally up; volatility is moderate, save for more robust Gold having traded 129% of its EDTR. Turkish Lira jitters continue, albeit the Dollar is only marginally higher vs. its Friday leap. Copper's MRT of 2.6705 is intact given the daily Parabolics are still sliding. Today begins the final week of Q2 Earnings Season; the Econ Baro is quiet ahead of 16 incoming metrics by week's end.
10 Aug '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: 'Tis a mixed session thus far for the BEGOS Markets, the Turkish Lira and its potential "contagion" making the FinMedia headlines: but Gold barely is budged, -0.1%. The Euro, Silver, Copper are the downside leaders, all -0.5%, whilst the Bond and Oil lead to the upside, both +0.3%. Given the currency stirrings, the Euro is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR tracing of 154%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Copper's daily Parabolics continue their Short trajectory, the MRT in place at 2.6705. Following yesterday's benign PPI reading, today brings the CPI into the Econ Baro.
09 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper, +2.0%, is firmest of the BEGOS Markets, price topping the 2.8000 level; the red metal's daily Parabolics are still to the Shortside; however were 2.8460 to trade today, (or about 2.8405 tomorrow), the study would reverse to Long and the MRT at 2.6705 would be nixed. The rest of the components are mixed, and with the exception of Copper having traded 107% of its EDTR, volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro is the weakest of the bunch, -0.2%. At Market Trends, mind the ascending "Baby Blues" of the Bond, Gold and Silver, all for which price has yet to pick up. Econ Baro metrics for today include Jul's PPI and Jun's Wholesale Inventories.
08 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper, -0.5% and Oil, -0.4%. Not officially a BEGOS component, the Yen would be the firmest of the bunch, up as much as +0.5% and exceeding its its "high if an up day" guesstimate of 0.90420, having since pulled back to the present 0.90290 level; as well, the Yen has traced 92% of its EDTR, whilst volatility for the BEGOS bunch is light-to-moderate. The daily Parabolics for Copper are still Short, the 2.6705 MRT in place. At Market Values, the Spoo is showing better than 100 points "high", as extreme a reading as has been since at least a year ago; the S&P 500 is just 14 points from its all-time high of 2872, however we still view as warranted a return to 2154 given our "live" p/e presently being 44.7x.
07 Aug '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The metals and Oil are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders with Copper +1.3%, Silver +1.2%, Oil +1.0% and Gold +0.6%; only the Bond is lower, and by one mere pip at that: however at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have again notched higher in real-time; those for both Gold and Silver are mildly gliding up from the floor. Still, Copper's daily Parabolics remain Short: thus the MRT at 2.6705. Silver leads the EDTR tracings at 78%, with session volatility otherwise light-to-moderate. As for incoming metrics, Jun's Consumer Credit is due late in the day.
06 Aug '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Up the most to start the week is Oil, +1.2%, whilst similarly down the most is Copper, -1.2%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are basically "unch" to lower; sporting the widest EDTR tracing is the Swiss Franc at 75%; volatility otherwise is mostly moderate. Copper's daily Parabolics have flipped to Short from a confirmed entry price of 2.7265 with an MRT of 2.6705 ($1,400/cac). At Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" in real-time have begun to curl up from below their -80% axis, suggestive of higher levels. The Gold Update recounts the yellow metal's ability to rise even in the face of both so-called "Dollar strength" and increases in the FedFunds rate; it also points out the negative divergence between the rising S&P 500 and declining Econ Baro, which for this week only a small number of a metrics come due.
03 Aug '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets at present are in the black, however volatility is light-to-moderate with Jul's payroll data in the balance. Firmest of the bunch is Copper, +0.9%. Oil came within a whisker of reaching its MRT of 66.89 (66.92) before reversing back up yesterday, sufficiently so to nix that Target as the 6-hr. MACD crossed to positive. The Spoo's recovery yesterday nonetheless at Market Values has put price in real-time 83 points "high" above the smooth valuation line. Due as well for the Econ Baro today are Jul's ISM(Svc) Index and Jun's Trade Deficit.
02 Aug '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: Oil is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and continues to work lower, -1.2%, nearing the MRT of 66.89 (which is within range for today) as the 6-hr. MACD remains negative. The upside leader is Silver, +0.6%, albeit Gold is flat. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are lower still, in real-time now down to 62%: but at Market Values, price is 43 points above the smooth valuation line. The only other component in the black at present is the Bond, +0.3%. Jun's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro.
01 Aug '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Ahead of the likely "stand pat" Fed, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, led by Copper ('tis said that global factory activity is slowing) -2.4%; the red metal leads the EDTR tracings at 115%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate, and their changes at present are all less than -1.0%. Oil confirmed a negative crossing of its 6-hr. MACD, which as measured from the 18:00 PT period's opening of 68.29 gives us an MRT of 66.89 ($1,400/cac). At the Market Trends page, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" show as curling down sub-80% and now in real-time are down to the 73% level. Prior to the FOMC's policy decision -- for which the individual votes may be interesting -- the Econ Baro receives ADP's jobs data from Jul, along with the ISM(Mfg) Index and Jun's Construction Spending.
31 Jul '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: Our MRT for the Euro of 1.15790 was nixed yesterday as the 8-hr. MACD confirmed crossing to positive. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are rolling over, now in real-time having crossed below the +80% level: such event generally heralds lower price levels, however the Spoo has been sufficiently upside stingy as to not always succumb, albeit the last such occurrence (02 Feb) was swiftly followed by a sound selloff of better than 200 points. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with volatility ranging from light (for the Spoo, Swiss Franc and Oil) to robust (for the Bond), the latter tracing 111% of its EDTR as the BOJ maintains a dovish stance. Six metrics come into the Econ Baro today, including the Fed's favoured PCE inflation data.
30 Jul '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil opens the BEGOS Markets trading week with a gain of 1.3%, the balance of the bunch being either side of "unch", save for the weak link Copper, -0.6%; volatility is mostly moderate. Cac volume for Gold is moving from Aug into Dec, the premium being +10 points which one ought mind with respect to price "change"; The Gold Update points to the remarkably tight directional tracking of Gold and Copper since at least as far back as 2008's Black Swan; its cites as well that Gold continues to languish some 50 points below its smooth valuation line per the Market Values page. Jun's Pending Home Sales begin a busy week of incoming data for the Econ Baro, with the FOMC's rate decision due Wed.
27 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: With the exception of Copper, +0.5%, the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way: in the balance comes our 1st peek at Q2 GDP, the "expectation" for which is a +4.1% annual pace after that of +2.0% in Q1; the Econ Baro swung higher during much of the Q2 reporting period, so on verra, albeit +4.1% seems an ambitious estimate. Session volatility, as has been the case through the week 'round this time, is light-to-moderate. Of note, the Spoo did hit the "would be" MRT of 2845 (see 19 Jul comment). We've a fresh MRT, this for the Euro based on its 8-hr. MACD crossing negatively: presently 1.16715, (as measured from confirmation at 1.16830) the Target is 1.15790 ($1,300/cac).
26 Jul '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: We've red across the board for the BEGOS Markets, save for the Bond; the metals are the downside leaders with Copper -1.5%, Silver -0.4%, and Gold -0.3%; the Spoo too is -0.3% given negativity over FB, until yesterday the 4th largest cap-weighted stock in the S&P 500. Session volatility is yet again light-to-moderate. Despite Copper's pullback, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends continue their climbout from the floor, albeit this 2.78-2.88 area is recent structural resistance, the next bit of which would be in the 2.93-2.99 zone; presently 2.8200, Copper shows Market Profile support at 2.8150, and then most dominantly at 2.7650. An ECB policy decision and Draghi are due this morning, plus the Econ Baro receives Jun's Durable Orders.
25 Jul '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the PMs with Silver +0.7% and Gold +0.5%; only Oil, -0.5%, and the Spoo, -0.1%, are lower; again, volatility is light-to-moderate, as 'tis said the markets are awaiting the results of today's Trump/Juncker TradeTalk. At Market Ranges, the only component for which the EDTR is materially widening is Copper (7¢ per day), whilst notably narrowing is the Spoo's EDTR, (now at 22 points per day, the tightest reading since 23 Jan). At Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) have kinked above the -80% axis for the first time since 02 Jul, after some 3 weeks of crawling across the floor. The Econ Baro takes in Jun's New Home Sales.
24 Jul '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss Franc which is all but "unch", the balance of the BEGOS Markets are all higher, led by Copper, +1.0%, and Silver, +0.9%; volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold (1227) remains stubbornly low by better than 50 points per the Market Values page. At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" have (in real-time) eclipsed the +80% level: the "would be" MRT of 2845 (see 19 Jul comment) is intact give the positive disposition of the daily Moneyflow. 75 S&P 500 companies have reported their Q2 Earnings, with 91% of them bettering their bottom lines of a year ago: still, the median "live" p/e remains a historically high 24.0x.
23 Jul '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Oil, +1.4%, is the BEGOS Markets upside leader; the balance of the bunch are mixed, the weakest being Silver, -0.3% and Gold, -0.2%. The Gold Update officially nixes our forecast 1434 high for this year "...barring a swiftly substantive swing in sentiment such as to send price skyrocketing..." which would likely take more than just a rescission of rate rises and Dollar weakness given all the cited overhead resistance areas; at Market Values, Gold's price (1230) remains better than 50 points below its smooth valuation line, the 4 other primary components not nearly as out-of-sync. Jun's Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
20 Jul '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Fairly mild changes at present for the BEGOS Markets, most of which are higher, save for the Bond and Spoo, Silver sporting the most net change at +0.4%; volatility is essentially moderate. Gold has regained the 1220s after making fresh year's lows for three days in-a-row, trading down to 1211: we look to formally nix our forecast high for this year of 1434 in tomorrow's Gold Update. The Econ Baro has had its fill for the week, and 'tis interesting to note that month-over-month it has not produced further upside swing. Meanwhile, Q2 Earnings Season is picking up steam, most companies reporting higher levels than in the like period a year ago, but the reality is: the p/e of the S&P remains unrealistically high per our Valuations & Rankings page.
19 Jul '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: More misery for the BEGOS Markets metals with Copper -2.8%, Silver -1.9% and Gold -0.9%; the balance of the bunch as well are all in the red; volatility is moderate to robust. Gold, which has traded down into the 1214s, is now 78 points (in real-time) below its smooth valuation line as displayed at Market Values. The Spoo's daily Moneyflow crossed above the 52 level (scale 0-100), producing a "would be" MRT of 2845, however we're very wary of chasing anything Long with respect to that market. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include Jul's Philly Fed Index and Jun's Leading Indicators.
18 Jul '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by the metals triumvirate with Silver -1.0%, Copper -0.7% and Gold -0.4%; the yellow metal, now 1224, has but 3 trading sessions (into week's end) to right itself back up into The Box (1280-1240) to ward off nixing our 2018 forecast high for 1434; that noted, the Market Values reading in real-time for Gold shows price as 73 points below the smooth valuation line, far and away the largest downside deviation in at least a year, so one ought think a bounce is in the offing. Post-Powell, perhaps? Today he testifies to the Senate Banking Committee and the Tan Tome gets released. Jun Housing Starts/Permits come into the Econ Baro.
17 Jul '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate, but the BEGOS Markets are little changed ahead of Powell's testifying to the House Financial Services Committee: Weakest is Copper, -0.2%, and firmest are the Swiss Franc and Oil, both +0.2%; the latter achieved its MRT of 69.18 (68.18 Sep cac). Gold continues its battle to stay in The Box (1280-1240), each drop sub-1240 being met with volume-supported buying; per the Market Values page, price is more than 50 points below its smooth valuation line, which from a year ago-to-date has been the extreme from which up moves have then evolved. Jun's IndProd/CapUtil and Jul's NAHB Housing Index hit the Econ Baro today.
16 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mixed, the upside leader being the Swiss Franc +0.4% and the downside leader Oil -1.1%, the latter's daily MACD becoming more negative and our 69.18 MRT (68.18 Sep cac) in place; Oil's "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page are working lower, whilst at Market Values price remains better than 2 points above the smooth valuation line. The Gold Update underscores the technical importance of price (presently 1244) to not drive -- indeed settle a week -- below the bottom of The Box (1280-1240). Session volatility is light-to-moderate. Due for the Econ Baro are Jun's Retail Sales, Jul's NY State Empire Index, and May's Business Inventories.
13 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Similar to what we saw the night of 02 July, Gold briefly dipped below the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) to 1239 in the 02:00 PT hour before bouncing back up on firmer volume than in the prior hour: however, various hourly time frames suggest lower levels ahead which may be cause to pull our 1434 forecast high for this year. At present, the Bond is +0.1%, the Spoo is "unch" and the other 6 BEGOS Markets are down, led by Silver -1.0%, the Dollar rising. Volatility is moderate. Oil's daily MACD confirmed the negative cross from this session's opening (70.38 Aug cac) giving us a MRT of 69.18 (or on the Sep cac 68.18). Jun's Ex/Im pricing and Jul's UofM Sentiment come into the Econ Baro.
12 Jul '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: With Oil dropping 4.8% yesterday, the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative: if confirmed, we'll set an MRT of 1.2 points ($1,200/cac) lower from the ensuing session's opening price; at Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" have kinked lower as anticipated, and at Market Values price has fallen from having been better than 5 points "high" to now 3 points above the smooth valuation line. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with the Bond and EuroCurrencies down, the balance of the bunch up. However: Gold (+0.1%) is teasing the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) in trading down to 1241. Volatility is mostly moderate. Incoming Econ Baro data includes June's CPI.
11 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Tariff increases have all (but the Bond) BEGOS Markets down; we saw Copper at one point -3.3% (now -2.4%) and the Spoo off some 30 points from its 13:15 PT trading halt (now -18 points from there, or just 7 points from the 14:00 PT settle). Save for Copper blowing out its EDTR with a 192% tracing, the volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. At Market Values, Oil's reading remains better than 5 points "high" and its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends we expect to soon kink down; same can be said for the Bond's "Baby Blues". Also at Market Values, Gold shows as 50 points "low", price seemingly stuck in the 1250s after rebounding off the bottom of The Box (1280-1240); Gold's daily MACD confirmed a "weak" positive crossing, for which a conservative MRT of 1271.5 might be considered. June's PPI and May's Wholesale Inventories come into the Econ Baro.
10 Jul '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Save for small gains in Oil and the S&P, both +0.2%, the other 6 BEGOS Markets all are lower, led down by yesterday's metals winners with Copper -1.7%, Silver -1.2% and Gold -0.8%. Volatility ranges from mild -- Oil with and EDTR tracing of just 28% -- to robust with the 3 metals all sporting EDTR tracings in excess of 100%. The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short: that study falls shy of making our present Market Rhythms listing, however at Market Trends the Bond's "Baby Blues" are sufficiently toppy such as to make us wary of further price slide. Q2 Earnings Season is underway, so mind the S&P Valuations and Rankings page over the ensuing weeks.
09 Jul '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: The metals components of the BEGOS Markets are the week's early leaders, Copper +1.2%, Silver +1.1% and Gold +0.8%; The Gold Update emphasizes the yellow metal's having briefly trading down to the bottom of The Box (1280-1240) last Mon evening before rebounding on sound volume; only the Bond and Oil are lower and volatility is moderate-to-robust. At Market Values, Oil is running 5 points "high" above its smooth valuation line: at Market Trends we're watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" to eventually crack and for its daily MACD to cross negative in the ensuing days should price continue to stall in the 73-74 area, which also is structural resistance from back in 2011.
06 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: We again find the BEGOS Markets little changed either way, jobs data and the Trade Deficit awaiting the Econ Baro; the sole exception is Oil, -1.1%: its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends nonetheless in real-time are up to 78%, but look to be topping; conversely, those as we noted for Gold, are now just perceptibly turning up, yet remain are well-down at -90%; and those for the Spoo -- despite its firming this week -- are lower still, pushing the -76% in real-time. Session volatility ahead of the noted data is at best moderate, tariff imposition notwithstanding.
05 Jul '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Continuation of the 2-day session does not find volatility ramped up as much as we'd anticipated, the BEGOS Markets EDTR tracings all sub-100% except for Copper's now 199% expanse: the red metal is the weakest of the bunch, -2.0%; the Spoo is still firmest, +0.6%, the other components not overly changed either way. At Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" are making the earliest sign of bottoming, albeit those for Silver, Copper, and the Spoo remain in full plummet. The FOMC's 12-13 June meeting minutes come due today; the Econ Baro receives the Jun data for ADP jobs and ISM(Svc).
04 Jul '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: With the 2-day session well under way, we find Copper as the weakest of the BEGOS bunch, -1.1%, and also the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 129%; lower too is Oil, -0.6%; the Spoo is the firmest market, +0.3%, but beware its plummeting "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page; save for the red metal, volatility is light-to-moderate, yet that will likely shift toward being robust given this session's not settling until tomorrow (05 July), albeit we've today's 10:00-15:00 PT Independence Day halt. Gold, as we saw having yesterday tested the bottom of The Box (1280-1240), has continued to rebound, the session's high thus far being 1262. The Econ Baro benefited from yesterday's noted incoming data.
03 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Barely lower are both the Bond and Swiss Franc, the balance of the BEGOS Markets moving higher led by Oil +1.0%, Silver +0.7%, and Gold plus the Spoo both +0.4%; the latter closes at 10:15 PT, the others as usual at 14:00 PT; all then open as usual at 15:00, but with an Independence Day trading halt tomorrow from 10:00-to-15:00 PT, 04 July being cobbled into a 2-day session for 05 July's settle. Volatility thus far today is moderate, Gold leading the EDTR tracings at 93%; the yellow metal was swiftly bought after twice briefly penetrating the bottom of The Box (1280-1240), the low both times being at 1238.8 some 2 hours apart last evening. May's Factory Orders come due for the Econ Baro, plus June's Vehicle Sales as the day unfolds.
02 Jul '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: A reversal of Friday 'round this time as, save for the Bond's being up a few pips, the BEGOS Markets are lower into this first trading day of 2018's second semester, led to the downside by Silver, -1.0%, Copper and the S&P both -0.5%, and Gold -0.4%: The Gold Update emphasizes Gold's needing to gather itself so as not to bust below The Box (1280-1240), especially on a weekly close, for 'twould nullify our forecast high for this year of 1434. Per Gold's Market Profile, its near-term trading resistors (with price presently 1250) are 1252, 1257 & 1260. June's ISM(Mfg) Index and May Construction Spending are due today for the Econ Baro.
29 Jun '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond off but a pip, the BEGOS Markets are higher into this final trading day of 2018's first semester. As we saw 'round this time yesterday, the Euro is again leading the EDTR tracings at 112%, the Swiss Franc robust as well with a 103% tracing; volatility is otherwise moderate, except for Oil with just a 37% tracing. Oil now trading in the 73s, the low 60s areas of structural support did hold as anticipated per the month's early comments: yet now, the 70s mark a revisit to "price bunching" from 2010 and structural resistance (from what had been support) in 2011. Yesterday also saw Silver again make fresh lows for the year, enough so to achieve the downside MRT of 15.980. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include May's Personal Income/Spending/PCE, plus the Chi PMI for June.
28 Jun '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil is +0.6%; Copper is -0.6%: the balance of the BEGOS bunch are little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Euro is leading the EDTR tracings at 75%, Silver the most docile component with just a 26% tracing. Silver set a new low for the year yesterday, the Jul cac trading down to 15.945: as noted, volume today is moving into the Sep cac for which the revised like MRT is 9¢ above the Jul cac (15.890) at 15.980, the low thus far this session being 16.115; (the daily Moneyflow reading for Silver is again 26 on a scale of 100-0). The final Q1 GDP reading comes due today for the Econ Baro.
27 Jun '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Only Oil, +0.7%, and the Bond, +0.4%, are up, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets being in the red, Silver being the weakest, -0.6%; the white metal's daily Moneyflow is now down to 26 (scale 100-0), our MRT being 15.890 (Jul cac)/ 15.960 (Sep cac); volume ought be rolling into the latter cac tomorrow, as is Copper's volume so doing today. Session volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Magnets, extreme readings find Gold an unduly 22 points "low" whilst Oil rates some 4 points "high". Metrics for the Econ Baro today include May's Durable Orders and Pending Home Sales.
26 Jun '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Silver's daily Moneyflow reading is working lower, presently down to 34 (scale 100-0), keeping on track our 15.890 (15.960 Sep) MRT; price this session has traded as low as 16.185, a level not seen since 02 May. Silver and Gold, both -0.6%, are the BEGOS Markets' weakest links, the yellow metal being the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 111%; otherwise, volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. As noted in The Gold Update, the case of the PMs falling appears out of sorts given the rise in the EuroCurrencies and the Bond these past 2 weeks, even as the Dollar too has been coming off the past few days. Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
25 Jun '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Leading most of the BEGOS Markets lower is Oil, -1.1%, followed by the Spoo, -0.5%; only the Bond is higher, +0.2%. Gold, whilst leading the EDTR tracings at 83%, is off but -0.1%. The Gold Update's rude awakening is that price is essentially where 'twas 8 years ago, back in what we today refer to as "The Box" (1280-1240), and yet (of course) the fundamental increases in M2 and debt ought have Gold double its current level. Silver's daily Moneyflow (see its chart in The Gold Update) continues to weaken, having moved sub-40, the MRT of 15.890 (or 15.960 Sep) being maintained. The Econ Baro kicks off a moderate incoming flow of Econ Data with May's New Home Sales.
22 Jun '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond's being slightly lower, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are up, led by Oil +0.9% ahead of a Fri/Sat OPEC stint and Silver +0.6%; still, the white metal's daily Moneyflow remains sub-48 (scale 100-0) and that measure would have to confirm a level above 52 to nullify the present Short signal for which we've an MRT of 15.890, (Silver's low thus far in 2018 is 16.07); at Market Trends, Silver's "Baby Blues" in real-time have reached down to their 0% axis: they've not visited their -80% axis since mid-Dec. Session volatility is moderate and the Econ Baro is set for this week.
21 Jun '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil is down the most of the BEGOS Markets, -0.8%, however price (64.83) remains in the upper reaches of this lower 60s structural basing area as mentioned these past few weeks. Only the Bond and Copper are marginally up, and volatility is moderate. As anticipated, Silver's daily Moneyflow confirmed settling yesterday sub-48, giving us an MRT (as measured from this session's opening at 16.290) of 15.890. Gold (1265) is working its way down into the center of The Box (1280-1240), which we don't expect to be fully penetrated. The Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators come into the Econ Baro.
20 Jun '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Weakest of the BEGOS Markets are the EuroCurrencies with the Swiss Franc -0.4% and Euro -0.3%; otherwise, the components are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate; Tariff-Talk which was so market-dominant yesterday has seemingly "fallen from the front page". Silver's daily Moneyflow is poised to confirm a crossing sub-48 (scale 100-0) come session's end: per the Market Rhythms page, that would trigger an MRT of 0.400 points lower ($2,000/cac); we'd eye that signal warily as 1) 'twould send Silver sub-16 for the 1st time this year, and 2) we don't see any justification for selling the PMs. The Q1 Current Account comes due for the Econ Baro, as does May's Existing Home Sales.
19 Jun '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly robust across the BEGOS Markets' spectrum, led by the Spoo which has traced 187% of its EDTR: after much of yesterday's selling was recovered, the Spoo has blown through that low (2761) down to 2736, further Tariff-Talk getting the blame; Copper is the weakest component, -2.1%, and the Bond is the firmest, +0.5%. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are falling for most of the bunch, the 2 exceptions being the Euro and Oil: at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points below its smooth valuation line. Gold has made a marginal new low for the year (1277). The Econ Baro looks to Housing Starts/Permits.
18 Jun '18, 04:59 Pacific Time: Whilst most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, the Spoo is working lower, -0.5%; the Spoo had become overbought by all 3 of our "textbook" technical measures (BollBands, RSI and Stos) and is of course fundamentally as stated The Gold Update "terrifically overvalued" based on the unsupportive earnings of the S%P 500's constituents. Volatility is mostly moderate and Oil is the upside leader, +0.7%; despite its having lurched down on Fri, Oil has been basing as anticipated these past 2 weeks in the 64-66 area, overall support in the lower 60s stretching back to Mar; cac volume is moving from Jul into Aug. The NAHB Housing Market Index comes due for the Econ Baro.
15 Jun '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: Oil and the Spoo are the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, both -0.4%, whilst the Bond is the upside leader at +0.2%; volatility is moderate. The EuroCurrencies' cac volumes are moving from Jun into Sep. By so many technical measures we've been anticipating a severe move lower for the S&P, (not to mention our "live" p/e at present being a record 62.7x): for example, the Spoo's 6-hr. Parabolics (not listed on the Market Rhythms page given the goal is less than $1,000/cac) nonetheless have produced follow-through of at least 10 points ($500/cac) in all 10 of its last flips, the next one to Short likely getting confirmed at 06:00 PT for a target of 10 Spoo points lower from that period's opening. Due for the Econ Baro are the NY Empire Index, IndProd/CapUtil, and UofM Sentiment.
14 Jun '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Fed's +0.25% rate rise now in the rear-view mirror (with 2 more raises "expected" by year's end) and the ECB's "tapering" decision dead ahead, the BEGOS Markets are more robust than 'round this time yesterday. The PM's are the upside leaders, Silver +0.7% having found its way back into the 17s for the 1st time since 23 Apr; 'tis also the most volatile component having traced 100% of its EDTR; Copper -0.5% is the weakest of the bunch; Oil is least volatile with just a 28% EDTR tracing. Ex/Im Pricing, Retail Sales and Business Inventories highlight the incoming Econ Baro metrics.
13 Jun '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed with the FOMC's 0.25% rate hike in the balance; no one component is presently changed by 0.2% in either direction and volatility is mostly light. The 8-hr. Moneyflow on the Spoo -- having recorded good Market Rhythm performance -- has turned whippy: obviously the S&P remains vastly overvalued, such that we're sticking to our full 25% correction call down to 2154. The Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" are curling down from above their +80% level; save for the Euro and Oil, the other 6 of the bunch are in 21-day linear regression uptrends. Prior to the Fed, the Econ Baro receives the May PPI.
12 Jun '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Little market reaction has followed the Trump/Kim Singapore Summit: on balance, there's some post-talk selling, led by Silver -0.4%, with Gold, Copper and Oil all -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Spoo's 8-hr. Moneyflow, presently on the Market Rhythms list, crossed sub-50 (scale 100-0) at midnight PT: should a sub-48 reading be confirmed, we'd then have a MRT for 28 points lower ($1,400/cac) from the opening price of the then subsequent 8-hr. period. Data coming due for the Econ Baro today includes the May CPI. Also today, the FOMC meeting kicks off, the +0.25% Fed Funds Rate announcement being tomorrow.
11 Jun '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The week highlighting Wed's 0.25% Fed rate hike begins with only the Bond marginally to the upside; the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets are working lower (a reversal of what has characterized recent sessions), led by Copper -1.3% and Oil -1.0%; volatility is moderate. The Gold Update again cites just how narrow has become the trading ranges of the PMs, Gold's EDTR at 10 points and that for Silver at 0.20 points ... and it doesn't appear rationale that Tue's Trump/Kim Singapore Summit ought offer much in expanding price range or valuation. The rest of the week then brings a plentiful dose of incoming data for the Econ Baro.
08 Jun '18, 08:29 Central Euro Time: Oil and the Spoo are the BEGOS Markets' weak links; that said, Oil at 65.65 has avoided the 63s such that it may be seeking a bottom through here, taking into account the 64-61 structural support area. Cac volume on the Spoo is moving from Jun into Sep. At Market Values, Oil remains at a fairly "low" extreme and the Spoo at one which is "high". At Market Ranges the PMs EDTRs remain at very narrow levels. And at Market Trends, the accelerative climb of the Euro's "Baby Blues" continues. Session volatility is thus far light, but picking up toward moderate. Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
07 Jun '18, 08:30 Central Euro Time: At Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are defying price's recent up move, now early on into a 5th consecutive day; at Market Values, price is better than 100 points above the smooth valuation line, as extreme as we've seen in at least a year, not to mention the "live" p/e being 54x. For the 3rd straight session, again just the Bond is a bit lower while the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher; early on, volatility is light. An increase in Consumer Credit for April is due to hit the Econ Baro late in the session.
06 Jun '18, 08:54 Central Euro Time: Similar to yesterday, only the Bond at present is lower; leading the BEGOS Markets higher are Silver and Oil, both +0.5%; volatility is light. Further to our prior note, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue to plummet: but given the cited structural support (64-61) price now at 65.83 is better than a full point above yesterday's low (64.22), yet with just 33% of today's EDTR having been traced. The Euro's Baby Blues in real-time are beginning to accelerate their upward glide; the Euro's Market Profile shows trading support in the 1.1730 to 1.1680 range. The Econ Baro awaits Apr's Trade Deficit and the revision to Q1 Productivity.
05 Jun '18, 11:30 Central Euro Time: Save for the barely-down Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are mildly higher, led by Copper +0.4%; volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" continue their sub-0% plummet; however, mind too Oil's Market Magnet and its smooth valuation line at Market Values: both measures suggest that Oil's ongoing sell-off is getting "long in the tooth" as price (presently 65.05) nears structural support in the 64-61 area from back in early April. ISM(Svc) hits the Econ Baro later today.
04 Jun '18, 08:31 Central Euro Time: A subtle start to a fairly light week of incoming Econ Data: the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, no one component presently more than 0.2% changed from Friday's settle; volatility is light, save for Copper with a 64% tracing of its EDTR. The Gold Update emphasizes the narrow trading range of the precious metals, especially given all the geopolitical goings-ons and the challenge facing a still overwhelmingly overvalued S&P 500 and erratic Econ Baro track with further FED rate hikes still assumed to be looming. An April decline for Factory Orders is due today.
01 Jun '18, 15:28 Central Euro Time: Save for Copper and the Spoo, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower: volatility is moderate-to-robust with both Gold and the Swiss Franc exceeding 100% of their EDTR tracings. May's employment data came in ahead of both consensus and Apr's readings; still in today's Econ Data balance are the ISM Index, Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales. At Market Trends, Oil's "Baby Blues" are now confirmed as having crossed below their 0% axis, suggestive of further price decline, albeit there is firming in this 65-67 area. Those for the Spoo are accelerating their decline, and whilst they're still above 0%, price's ability to remain above 2700 appears suspect.
31 May '18, 14:25 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are thus far a bit calmer vs. the prior two days, the one exception perhaps Oil which is -1.1%, its "Baby Blues" only now in real-time crossing below their 0% axis; volatility is moderate rather than reaching the robust levels we've been seeing, albeit at the Market Ranges pages, EDTRs on balance have increased. Incoming metrics today for the Econ Baro include Personal Income/Spending and the Fed's favourite inflation measure of core PCE, along with the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales.
30 May '18, 19:34 Central Euro Time: Today's Spoo is playing "what goes down must come up", in trading nearly back up to yesterday's high (2731) with 2727 having thus far printed. Indeed save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets all are higher today, and volatility is moderate-to-robust. Gold's volume is moving from the Jun cac into that for Aug, and as the week unfolds, the Bond's cac volume will shift from Jun into Sep. The second read on Q1 GDP slipped a notch from 2.3% to 2.2%, as did the Chain Deflator's from 2.0% to 1.9%. Amidst yesterday's PIIGS concerns, the Swiss Franc reached our MRT at 1.0144.
29 May '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: PIIGS jitters -- specifically Italian and to an extent Spanish -- have equities falling and debt rising as the two-day BEGOS Markets session continues. Firmest is the Bond +1.0% and weakest are the Spoo and Euro, both -1.0%; volatility is robust with 6 of the 8 components' EDTR tracings exceeding 100%, and notably for the Bond and Euro, exceeding 200%. There is some negative pull on the Swiss Franc, but not enough to turn the daily MACD negative: thus the MRT for 1.0144 remains in place. Week-over-week Oil has swing from the 72s down into the 65s. The week's parade of metrics coming into the Econ Baro begins today with Consumer Confidence.
28 May '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: U.S. and U.K. bourses are closed, however the BEGOS Markets are trading. Oil continues to come off: per our 24 May note, Oil then was trading in the 71s; 'tis now in the 66s. The Swiss Franc had neared the 1.0144 MRT before having since pulled back, yet the daily MACD remains positive, keeping that Target in play; the Euro, now in the 1.16s, has reached down to its lowest level since 13 Nov. The Gold Update looks for the yellow metal to be seeking its low for the year, i.e. that support afforded by the 1290s-1260s ought hold. 18 metrics come due this week for the Econ Baro.
25 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Ahead of the StateSide and U.K. 3-day weekend the BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the upside by the Bond +0.3% and on the downside by Oil -2.3%, the latter as anticipated per yesterday's note; Oil has traced 140% of its EDTR; otherwise volatility is moderate for the other components. The PMs have exhibited firmness every since Gold went sub-1300 on 15 May: 'tis now back above that level. The Swiss Franc's "Baby Blues" appear poised to break above their 0%-axis early in the new week, and with the daily MACD staying its positive course, our MRT remains 1.0144. The Econ Baro receives its final metrics for the week, including Apr's Durable Orders.
24 May '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Oil appears to be beginning to crack: at Market Trends its "Baby Blues" have kinked lower in real-time, at Market Values price is some 3.5 points above the smooth valuation line, and the 8-hr. Price Oscillator likely will go negative today. Our MRT for the Swiss Franc of 1.0144 remains in place, the daily MACD still positive; as well, the Franc's Baby Blues continue their upward acceleration and the daily Price Oscillator is nearing a positive crossing. The BEGOS Markets Metals and EuroCurrencies are all higher; Oil, the Bond and Spoo are lower; volatility is moderate. Existing Home Sales come due for the Econ Baro.
23 May '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc is up to its highest level since 01 May (1.0128) as it nears our MRT of 1.0144 given the ongoing positive track of the daily MACD. The Spoo has more than closed its weekend gap from the U.S./China "trade tensions truce", last Friday's settle having been 2712, price up to yesterday's high of 2741, and then down to this session's low of 2704. The Swiss Franc, Gold and Bond are up; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are down; volatility is moderate-to-robust, the weakest and rangiest of the bunch being Copper -1.9% with a 170% EDTR tracing. Minutes of the 01/02 May FOMC meeting come due, as well as New Home Sales for the Econ Baro.
22 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: The PMs are maintaining their firmness with which they returned yesterday; Oil -0.3% is the weakest BEGOS Market and Copper +0.9% is the upside leader; volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Trends the Swiss Franc is accelerating is climbout, and with the daily MACD still positive, our MRT remains 1.0144. The Bond is testing Market Profile support at 141^06. At Market Values, both Oil and the Spoo appear very "High" whilst both the Euro and Gold show as very "low", all relative to their respective deviations from their smooth valuation lines from a year ago-to-date.
21 May '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo gapped up beyond its "high if an up day" guesstimate of 2733.75 on talk of a "trade tensions truce" between the U.S. and China; price has since whittled away a bit to 2728.75, but nonetheless is still +0.6%; Copper is higher as well, +1.3%, but the balance of the BEGOS bunch are flat to lower, led by the PMs. Gold has traded down nearly to the top of The Box (1280-1260) which as noted in The Gold Update we expect to be supportive as the low for this year, price then to ascend to our forecast high of 1434. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD continues its positive track, the MRT being 1.0144. Q1 Earnings Season has concluded with 71% of 2074 reporting companies beating their Q1 of last year; specific to the S&P 500, of its 434 earnings reports, 85% improved.
18 May '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: On balance the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, the weakest being Copper -0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD remains positive, the "Baby Blues" continuing their climbout, the MRT still in play for 1.0144. Cac vol for Oil is moving from Jun into Jul. At Market Values, Gold is some 50 points below its smooth valuation line, which by that chart's oscillator is an extreme low; similarly, Oil's chart shows it as (still) being at an extreme high 'round +5 points. The Econ Baro has already closed out the week with a gain, and Q1 Earnings Season wraps up today.
17 May '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc has been rather quiet since its daily MACD turned positive, which still 'tis, whilst at Market Trends the Franc's "Baby Blues" are more notably on the rise; so the MRT of 1.0144 remains in place. Our "textbook technicals" (BollBands, RSI and Stos) on the Spoo all show it as "overbought", albeit its Baby Blues are accelerating higher. Oil is as it highest level (72.30) since Nov 2014; it is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mixed and volatility again moderate. The Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
16 May '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, the mild exception being the Euro -0.4%; volatility is moderate. The daily MACD on the Swiss Franc continues its positive track, our MRT of 1.0144 being maintained. Gold is trading in the 1200s for the first time this year: The Gold Update has repetitively pointed to May's being a poor month for the yellow metal as it now bangs about in Neverland, aka "The Whiny 1290s"; we look to The Box (1280-1260) as stalwart support. The Spoo's slide yesterday was not enough for price to reach down to its magnet, yesterday's settle still some 35 points "high". Metrics coming into the Econ Baro today are Housing Starts/Permits and IndProd/CapUtil.
15 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Given confirmation of the two noted EuroCurrencies' studies, we're siding with the Swiss Franc's now positive daily MACD, from which we've an MRT of 1.0144. Save for Oil and Copper, the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, with volatility again is moderate. Despite the Spoo's having settled higher for 8 consecutive sessions, its "Baby Blues" at Market Trends have only barely broken above their 0% axis, and at Market Magnet price settled yesterday as 62 points "high", an extreme level across the last 3 months of readings; at Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR has been dropping, yet at 31 points, a sell-off today suggests a low "guesstimate" of 2704 per the Spoo's page itself. Arriving for the Econ Baro are Retail Sales, the NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and the NAHB's Housing Index.
14 May '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: A mixed start to the new week for the BEGOS Markets, 5 of which are up, led by the Euro and Oil both +0.4%, the other 3 down, led by Copper -0.8%; volatility is moderate. The Euro's daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Long and the Swiss Franc's daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive: upon confirmation, both would present MRTs, however we'd likely side with the latter as it has presented a more consistent Market Rhythm result as currently listed on that page. A moderate amount of data is due this week for the Econ Baro, all of it due to arrive Tue-Thu; as well, 'tis the final week of Q1Earnings Season.
11 May '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: As was the case 'round this time yesterday, all of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, (meaning we don't need to see a chart of the Dollar to know 'tis down). Silver, +0.4%, is the firmest of the bunch; volatility is light-to-moderate. Both the Swiss Franc's daily MACD and Euro's daily Parabolics are quite close respectively to going positive and flipping to Long; confirmation in both cases is possible by session's end; mind as well both currencies' "Baby Blues" at Market Trends, that indicator just beginning to curl higher. Ex/Im pricing and UofM Sentiment come into the Econ Baro today.
10 May '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are presently higher and volatility is mostly moderate, the outlier being Copper with an EDTR tracing of 104%; the red metal is also the firmest of the bunch, +1.3%, followed by the white metal, +0.7%. The Dollar's beginning to show signs of cooling ought in the ensuing few sessions flip the daily Parabolics on the Euro to Long and cross the daily MACD on the Swiss Franc to positive: both of those studies are on our current list at Market Rhythms. The Econ Baro awaits the CPI data.
09 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Gold, -0.5%, is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and is also leading the volatility with an EDTR tracing of 105%; for the balance of the bunch, volatility is moderate. The upside leader is Oil, +1.3%: at Market Values, Oil shows as at an extreme high (+5 points) vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line; price is high as well per Oil's Market Magnet. The Spoo, +0.4%, saw its aforementioned 2-hr. Moneyflow cross sub-48 yesterday: in real-time 'tis presently 50, and would have to confirm closing a 2-hr. period above 52 before nullifying the case to be Short. Due for the Econ Baro are the PPI and Wholesale Inventories.
08 May '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Trump on Iran ought be a markets' mover 'round 11:00 Pacific. Save for the "unch " Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets are working lower on light-to-moderate volatility. A key Spoo Market Rhythm to mind (not on the Market Rhythms list as it seeks a very aggressive profit level) is the 2-hr. Moneyflow: it triggers a signal upon crossing (on a scale of 0-100) above 52 (for Longs) else below 48 (for Shorts) and may well trigger to the downside during today: its average duration is some 3 calendar days, having crossed 10 times since early April and because of the Spoo's volatility has demonstrated fairly profitable follow-through; as always, cash management is King;
07 May '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: Following the Spoo's reaching its conservative MRT (2610.75) as noted, the daily MACD is now provisionally positive; but if it confirm by day's end, we shan't seek an upside MRT, given our view that the S&P is in an overall 25% correction (targeting 2154). The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short: that study is currently makes our list on the Market Rhythms page. The Gold Update underscores May expectantly having starting off weakly, price reaching a low for the year last Tue, with the upper 1200s likely in the offing. The Swiss Franc is below 1.0000 (0.9985) for the 1st time since 06 Nov and with an EDTR tracing of 110% is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, for which volatility is otherwise mostly moderate and price changes mixed.
04 May '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Spoo's negative daily MACD quickly carried price to the conservative MRT (2610.75); despite the Spoo's then recovering in full to the area 'round its Market Profile apex of 2631, the MACD is further negative in this session thus keeping the aggressive MRT (2564.75) in place. With Apr payrolls data in the balance, the BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is essentially light: Oil is firmest +0.4% and Copper weakest -0.6%. The Dollar's recent rise has shoved the Euro to an extreme "low" area vis-à-vis its Market Values chart.
03 May '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The daily MACD on the Spoo confirmed a negative cross to give us an MRT from today's open (2626.75) of conservatively 16 points down to 2610.75 ($800/cac), and/or aggressively 62 points down to 2564.75 ($3,100/cac); the year-to-date low is 2529.00. Post-Fed, we've all 8 BEGOS Markets in the black and volatility mostly is moderate, the outlier being Copper +1.3% and having traced 107% of its EDTR. A rash of Econ Data comes in today for the Econ Baro, including Q1 Productivity, the Trade Deficit, Factory Orders and ISM(Svc).
02 May '18, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Spoo momentarily is "unch" with the FOMC's policy statement due today; the Spoo's range thus far is 15 points, which is a 41% tracing of the present EDTR of 37 points. Save for Oil being -0.1%, the other BEGOS Markets are up, with metals leading the way: Silver +1.3%, Copper +0.8% and Gold +0.5%. We're still minding the Spoo's daily MACD for a negative crossing but now are wary the angle of cross is practically negligible; still per the Market Rhythms list, that study is currently the most robust of the bunch. Ahead of the Fed for the Econ Baro comes the ADP employment data.
01 May '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are lower, again led by Oil -1.0%. However, Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator whipped to a positive cross, in turn nixing our 66.41 MRT. But Silver did achieve the 16.275 MRT. Session volatility is light-to-moderate, and many of the Euro-bourses are closed for their 01 May Fête du Travail, et alia. The Spoo's daily MACD again is approaching a negative cross toward establishing an MRT upon confirmation. ISM(Mfg) and Construction Spending work into the Econ Baro, along with vehicle sales as the day unfolds,.
30 Apr '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are working lower to start the week, led to the downside by Oil (-1.0%) and the PMs; The Gold Update points to a dour May and already the weekly Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short. Silver's daily Moneyflow has confirmed going sub-50 (scale 100-0) from an entry level of 16.555 (currently 16.400) for an MRT of 16.275. Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has negatively crossed from an entry level of 67.51 (currently 67.32) for an MRT of 66.41. Copper and the Spoo are mildly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate. The week is highlighted by the FOMC's rate decision on Wed, plus 20 incoming Econ Baro metrics, today including the Fed's favoured Core PCE Inflation reading, plus Personal Income/Spending, the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales.
27 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: Except for Copper which is -2.0% and has traced 116% of its EDTR, the BEGOS Markets otherwise are little changed either way and volatility is mostly light, all this ahead of the 1st peek at Q1 GDP: mind that the Econ Baro had pretty much slid throughout Q1 such that a sub-2.0% (which is the "expectation") reading wouldn't be that much of a surprise. Per yesterday's note, the Bond now is rising for the 2nd straight day; Silver's daily Moneyflow has provisionally has dipped sub-50 (also, cac vol is moving from May into Jul); and the Spoo's daily MACD has yet to cross negatively.
26 Apr '18, 04:37 Pacific Time: The Bond -- after 6 consecutive down days -- is +0.4%, 2nd just to Oil +0.7%; only Copper -0.7% (the cac volume for which is moving from May into Jul) is lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Magnets, you can see the Bond finished yesterday nearly 2.5 points "low", which by its graphic's oscillator is fairly extreme. The Spoo's daily MACD has yet to cross negative, but still is pointed toward so doing. Silver's daily Moneyflow looks on track to cross sub-50: as listed at Market Rhythms, follow-through from such crossings has been 0.280 points ($1,400/cac) in all 10 of the last prior occurrences. The ECB and Draghi are due, along with Durable Orders for the Econ Baro.
25 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo's move lower yesterday precluded the 8-hr. Parabolics from flipping back to Long; moreover, the daily MACD is nearing a negative cross which upon confirmation would provide a conservative downside MRT of 16 points ($800/cac) or aggressively 62 points ($3,100/cac). All of the BEGOS Markets are lower (save for Copper +0.1%), Silver being the weakest -1.0%; volatility is moderate. But at Market Trends, Copper's "Baby Blues" are kinking lower from above the 80% level for the 2nd straight day. A rare quirk for Earnings Season: with the help of the lowered corporate tax rate, more companies are topping their Q1s of a year ago than are beating estimates.
24 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The same study for the Spoo that yesterday enabled price reaching the "aggressive" MRT of 2659.50 finds the 8-hr. Parabolics nearing their flip back to Long should price (presently 2686.50) exceed the 2688-2691 area today, (depending on time of day); that noted, we'd be wary of chasing upside Spoo MRTs, if even the study is listed on the Market Rhythms page. Save for Copper (+1.9%) and the Spoo (+0.5%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are either side of "unch" and volatility is light, expect for the red metal having traced 103% of its EDTR. New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence come due for the Econ Baro.
23 Apr '18, 04:38 Pacific Time: On Friday, the 8-hr. Parabolics for the Spoo swiftly reached our "conservative" MRT of 2679.50 and came within one pip (2679.75) for our "aggressive" MRT of 2659.50. The Spoo gapped up to 2684.75 at this session's open, but at present, all 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red; volatility is moderate; back above 90, the Dollar is at its highest level since 12 Jan. The Gold Update points to a move back into the 16s for Silver (as now is the case), should the yellow metal not be supportive of the white metal's recent up move solely as an industrial metal. The 10-yr. Note yield is 2.951%, with much FinMedia buzz about it nearing 3%, (which is where it last topped out at the end of 2013). The Econ Baro looks to Existing Home Sales.
20 Apr '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics flipped to Short yesterday: as measured from an entry price price of 2695.50 (08:00 Pacific, 19 Apr), our conservative downside MRT is 2679.50 (16 points or $800/cac), or aggressively 2659.50, (36 points or $1,800/cac). Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, led by Silver -0.6%; volatility is light to moderate. Evidence of the lower corporate tax rate kicking in is reflected in the 52 S&P companies having thus far reported as 50 of them (96%) have bettered their Q1 of a year ago. No data is due today for the Econ Baro.
19 Apr '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way, Oil up the most at +0.6% and Copper the weakest at -0.4%. Volatility is moderate, again save for the Spoo which sports thus far an EDTR tracing of only 21%, albeit at Market Ranges we can see that for the Spoo is coming off the year's high extremes: but we look for that ranginess to increase upon the overall 25% S&P correction again picking up steam. To that end, mind the Spoo's 8-hr. Parabolics as they could flip to Short fairly readily. Metrics today for the Econ Baro include the Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators, which by their lagging nature ought have slowed given the Baro's decline this year.
18 Apr '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver is streaking toward 17, (high 16.965): yesterday marked the 50th consecutive trading day of Silver's trading entirely within the 16 handle; Silver along with Copper and Oil are all up better than 1.0%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility ranges from light for the Spoo with an EDTR tracing of just 29% to robust for Copper's 118% tracing. Silver's daily Moneyflow confirmed crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) at yesterday's close, giving us a MRT (from this session's opening at 16.785) of 17.065: this Market Rhythm has produced follow-through of at least 0.280 points ($1,400/cac) as measured from each signal's opening price 10 of the last 10 times as is in the current list at Market Rhythms. The Fed's Tan Tome is due today.
17 Apr '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Euro's daily Parabolic has provisionally flipped to Long: that nixes our MRT of 1.22360. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, save for Copper which is -0.6% and the Spoo which is +0.6%; volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Magnets, the Spoo adjusted for real-time is some 50 points "high". At Market Values, Oil has begun to come off from its high extreme level above the smooth valuation line, although price remains quite stretched at better than 3 full points "high"; Oil's cac volume is moving from May into Jun. Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due for the Econ Baro.
16 Apr '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mixed with volatility moderate. As suggested in The Gold Update, the yellow metal is off a bit (-0.2%) post-Syria strike given no further fallout from that issue and Gold's wont to typically "return from whence it came" following geo-political events. The Euro is higher (+0.3%) but not enough as yet to flip the daily Parabolics to Long: today 'twould have to eclipse the 1.24570 level (presently 1.24210) to nix the MRT of 1.22360. A bevy of metrics hit the Econ Baro including Retail Sales, the NY State Empire Index, Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Index.
13 Apr '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: Remaining Short are the Euro's daily Parabolics: price currently is 1.23710, the Parabolic itself for today is 1.24685, and our MRT sits down there at 1.22360; at Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" are crawling across their mid-chart 0% axis, whilst those for the Swiss Franc are instead in descent sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. At Market Values, Oil is nearly 5 points above its smooth valuation line and 3 points above its Market Magnet: both readings are "high" extremes. Q1 bank earnings are beginning to roll in and the Econ Baro gets the UofM Sentiment survey.
12 Apr '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolics on the now falling Euro are still to the Shortside, so the 1.22360 MRT remains alive; indeed all of the BEGOS Markets are lower save for the Spoo which is +0.4%, yet is sporting the narrowest of the EDTRs, from which volatility for the bunch runs from light-to-robust with Copper and the Swiss Franc exceeding EDTR tracings of 100%. Gold made a high for the year yesterday at 1369 -- just 8 points shy of Base Camp 1377 -- before succumbing back down into the upper 1340s; Silver has yet to break out of the 16s (in that handle now for the 47th consecutive session). Gold, Copper and Oil all are somewhat "high" vis-à-vis their Market Magnets. Ex/Im pricing hits the Econ Baro today.
11 Apr '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Euro's daily Parabolics still are Short, however the upper 1.24s would flip them Long which would nix our MRT of 1.22360; the MRT based on Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator was swiftly reached yesterday (from an entry of 64.37 to the Target of 65.47). The BEGOS Markets are mixed, ranging from Oil +1.0% to the Spoo -0.9%; volatility is mostly moderate. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" at Market Trends are beginning to curl upward from the -81% level, however we still see any material upside as limited within the overall -25% correction context. The Econ Baro receives the CPI and Treasury Budget. FOMC Minutes also are due, albeit their 20/21 Mar meeting was followed by Powell's 1st such press conference.
10 Apr '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility has up-shifted to moderate from this time yesterday; that noted, at Market Ranges we see the recently rising EDTRs now at best stalling if not falling, the one exception being that for the Spoo which is set at 58 points coming into today, the actual range already spanning 46 points. Save for the Bond, the other 7 components are higher. Still, the daily Parabolics remain Short for the Euro and its 1.22360 MRT. Oil's 6-hr. Price Oscillator has provisionally turned positive: upon confirmation (06:00 PT) 'twould give us a Target of 1.1 points higher ($1,100/cac) from that period's opening price. PPI and Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
09 Apr '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility has slowed as the BEGOS Markets start the week: only Copper and Gold have traced better than 50% of their EDTRs; those 2 components along with the Spoo are up, the balance are down. The Euro's daily Parabolics are still Short, the MRT of 1.22360 remaining in play. The Gold Update highlights the narrow trade of the PMs year-to-date despite the plights that ought have prices moving higher. Mind the sliding Econ Baro. Q1 Earnings Season is beginning, wherein for the 1st time we ought see the effect of the lowered corporate tax cut (from 35% to 21%).
06 Apr '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: More Trump tariff talk has tanked the Spoo as much 40 points; currently 'tis -20, (-0.7%); only the Bond and Eurocurrencies are in the black and volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets. The Euro has reached down as low as 1.22765, the daily Parabolics remaining to the Shortside towards keeping in place the 1.22360 MRT; at Market Values, the Euro this week has crossed beneath its smooth valuation line after having been above it most of the year-to-date. Coming into week's end, Silver likely will find itself entirely within the 16 handle for the 43rd consecutive trading day, (from 05 Feb onward). We've Mar jobs data for the Econ Baro and then Jay Powell from the Economic Club of Chicago.
05 Apr '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: Save for Copper and the Spoo, the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower and volatility is moderate. The Euro's daily Parabolics continue their Short trend, maintaining our MRT of 1.22360; at Market Trends, the Euro's "Baby Blues" are falling for their 6th consecutive day and look to fall below the 0% axis line going into week's end. The Bond's "Baby Blues" in real-time have kinked lower, having fallen just short of achieving the +80% axis; price has made a "lower low" for 3 straight sessions. At Market Ranges, the Spoo's EDTR is 58 points; if one can withstand the volatility, the Spoo's 1-hr. Parabolics have been providing material follow-through for at least the past two weeks. The Trade Deficit hits the Econ Baro today.
04 Apr '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: Fresh PRC tariffs on StateSide stuff have the Spoo in a tailspin, off as much as 2% thus far, and Copper even more so -2.4% at present; Oil also is lower, the other 5 BEGOS Markets higher; volatility is moderate-to-robust. The Euro's daily Parabolics flipped to Short giving us an MRT of 1.22360; Copper's daily MACD confirmed crossing to positive but has provisionally whipsawed back to negative: had one leapt on that Long, the loss at present (from the session's open at 3.0670) would be -$1,838/cac barring a more protective cash management stop. ADP jobs data comes in for the Econ Baro, along with Factory Orders and the ISM(Svc) readings.
03 Apr '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Oil, Copper and the Spoo are thus far higher; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lower; volatility is light-to-moderate. We're eying 2 studies that are close to triggering MRTs: the Euro's daily Parabolics are near to flipping Short, (from which per the Market Rhythms page we'd then seek a Target of $1,300/cac lower), and Copper's Daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, (if confirmed from which we'd then seek a Target of $3,100/cac higher, or less aggressively, $1,800/cac higher). In real-time, the Bond's "Baby Blues" are just shy of crossing above their 80% axis: something to mind at the Market Trends page; the Bond also appears "high" per its Market Magnet.
02 Apr '18, 04:26 Pacific Time: Q2 begins and with it shall be some "per-earnings season" entities reporting under the new tax law, so we'll be seeing if there's discernible improvement. Silver, which closed last Thursday on its high trade for the day is making intra-day highs as we type, albeit, as underscored in The Gold Update, the white metal remains well undervalued relative to the yellow metal, (it in turn of course far undervalued as well). Euro-bourses are closed today; volatility is light-to-moderate and the only BEGOS Market in the red is the Spoo, just mildly so. The Econ Baro looks for data from the ISM Index and Construction Spending.
29 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: As noted, this final trading day of the week has 6 incoming metrics for the Econ Baro including Personal Income/Spending and its Fed-favoured Core PCE inflation reading, plus the Chi PMI. The BEGOS Markets are mostly little changed either way and volatility is light. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative, essentially nixing our MRT of 1.0768 barring a reversal back higher today. Still, some 24 studies for perusal presently populate the Market Rhythms page. Post-close, trading resumes Sunday (15:00 PT)/Monday (00:00 CET). A safe, extended weekend to all.
28 Mar '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly moderate. Both Gold and the Swiss Franc are the downside leaders, each -0.6%; the latter's daily MACD is still positive, but less so, the MRT still in place for 1.0768. The Spoo's volatility finds it 100 points "low" compared to its smooth valuation line on the Market Values page, yet the S&P is some 70-120 points "high" vis-à-vis its Moneyflow page; per the Valuation and Rankings page, the p/e measurements remain extremely excessive. The Econ Baro receives the final Q4 GDP reading along with Pending Home Sales for Feb ahead of 6 more metrics tomorrow toward closing out the shortened trading week.
27 Mar '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss Franc's daily MACD continues on the positive side thus keeping in place our MRT of 1.0768. Gold is giving back its gains of the past 3 sessions: as well, cac vol is moving from Apr into Jun; still at Market Trends, Gold's "Baby Blues" have since crossed in real-time further back above their 0% axis, although price along with that for Silver are the session's weakest of the BEGOS Markets, both -0.5%. Weaker, too, are the Bond and Eurocurrencies; firmer are the Spoo, Oil and Copper. Consumer Confidence comes due for the Econ Baro.
26 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Copper, the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by the Spoo +1.5% and the Euro +0.5%, with volatility again moderate-to-robust. The Gold Update points to the yellow metal's having put in best week of the year, breaking out of the narrow weekly trading range; however Silver's remains narrow, the Gold/Silver ratio at 81.4x with the white metal not having traded outside the 16s since 02 February. The Swiss Franc's daily MACD confirmed a positive crossing to give us a 1.0768 MRT (from an entry level of 1.0648 for +0.0120 points = $1,500/cac). This 4-day trading week is back-loaded with a bevy of incoming Econ Data.
23 Mar '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Gold reached the 1343.2 MRT and is firm for the present, up 1.0% as is Silver, the PMs leading the BEGOS Markets on the upside, the volatility for which is moderate-to-robust. The Spoo is off another 0.3%, but has been down as much as 1.1% this session: 'twouldn't be untoward to see it recover in full to yesterday's 2646.75 settle, albeit 2645 is a fresh Market Profile apex. Durable Orders and New Home Sales are scheduled to work their way into the Econ Baro, which yesterday reached its lowest reading since 02 Nov: one wonders if the Fed shall stick to its rate guidance for another 2-to-3 hikes this year.
22 Mar '18, 04:21 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond and Swiss Franc, the BEGOS Markets are working lower, led by the Spoo -0.7% as it flirts with the 2700 level in vindicating Tue's negative crossing of the daily MACD as noted. Volatility is moderate. Gold's 8-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed turning positive at 00:00 PT from 1330.2 for an MRT of 1343.2. At Market Magnets, note how high is Oil's price relative to its magnet. Slowing "Leading" Indicators from back in Feb are due today for the Econ Baro, which itself peaked back on 21 Dec.
21 Mar '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: Ahead of the Fed, the Econ Baro will be fed Q4's Current Account deficit and Feb's Exiting Home Sales. Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly higher with volatility running light-to-moderate. We've not made much mention of late for MRTs, however the Market Rhythms page presently has 18 listed qualifiers to consider; post-Fed, we expect markets to be fairly robust in either direction, which ought bode well over the ensuing weeks for MRTs. One study of note to consider, albeit 'tis still pre-Fed, is the Spoo's daily MACD having confirmed a negative cross at yesterday's close: that rhythm is not on the list, but not for lack of follow-though: 6 of the last 10 signals have achieved at least 76 points of further price travel ($3,800/cac), however 7 such successes are needed to make the list; however, backing off to a lesser MRT increases that number, (i.e. 16 points has been achieved all 10 times).
20 Mar '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: Volatility is again moderate to this point of the session for the BEGOS Markets, the FOMC beginning their two-day affair. Most of the components are mildly lower, the exception being Oil +1.0%. Despite yesterday's 1.4% drop in the S&P, barely a dent was put in its extremely high p/e, the "live" reading for which is 54.4x; as well, the Spoo moved only marginally below its Market Magnet, and at Market Values, price is actually above the smooth valuation line. Again we've nothing due today for the Econ Baro in a week with just 6 metrics coming in, the Fed being the story.
19 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The week begins with moderate volatility for the BEGOS Markets, all of which are at present in the red. 'Tis a muted week for incoming data, save for the FedFunds rate being raised into the 1.50%-1.75% target range come the FOMC's policy statement on Wed. The Gold Update looks for the weekly trading range of price to begin widening along with a modest move into lower levels: the year's low of 1304 appears likely to be tested, with the weekly parabolic Long trend not allowing for much further room down, 1291 being the hurdle price.
16 Mar '18, 15:43 Pacific Time: Good news: the S&P 500 "Valuation and Rankings" page is once again being updated daily; thank you for your interest and patience. Bon Weekend!
16 Mar '18, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Market Ranges page clear shows the narrowing of EDTRs across the spectrum, most BEGOS components nearing their more "normal" levels, although that for the Spoo at 41 points per day still appears as excessive; still Wed's session into today's shows tighter Spoo ranges. Presently, only the Spoo is lower, just mildly so, the balance of the bunch all higher, and again volatility is comparably light relative to what have been higher EDTRs. At Market Values, four of the five primary BEGOS Markets are pretty much in line with their smooth valuation lines: only the Spoo appears somewhat "high". The incoming data parade continues today for the Econ Baro with metrics on Housing Starts/Permits, IndProd/CapUtil, and UofM Sentiment. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Mar into Jun, whilst that for Oil from Apr into May. That bevy of studies swinging to Long for the Euro (see 14 Mar) never really came with upside follow-through, although price is firming today thus far.
15 Mar '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly changed either way and volatility is light with another blast of Econ Data in the balance, including Ex/Im Pricing, the NY State Empire Index, Philly Fed Index and NAHB Index. Econ Baro watchers are noting its slipping for better than a month now, plus its inability to regain last Dec's high point. Trading ranges have been narrow of late for the PMs: Gold has not spanned its EDTR for 4 of the past 5 sessions, nor has Silver for all 5 sessions; both metals have traced less than 50% of their EDTRs thus far today. Copper's "Baby Blues" are accelerating their downward slide, and the 4-hr. MACD is poised for a negative cross: that study as currently listed on the Market Rhythms page suggests follow-through then of $1,200/cac (-1.0480 points further upon confirmation from the next period's opening price).
14 Mar '18, 04:19 Pacific Time: The week's pace of incoming Econ Data picks up today, 5 metrics hitting the Econ Baro including PPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories. Copper is the most robust of the BEGOS Markets, +1.2% and having traced 92% of its EDTR; volatility is light for the balance of the bunch; both Oil and the Spoo are +0.4% whilst the other components are little changed either way. In yesterday's EOD work, the Euro's daily Moneyflow, 12-hr. MACD and 8-hr. Price Oscillator all swung to Long signals, their respective MRTs being 1.24175, 1.25145 and 1.24910: note that "1st Position" for the Mar Euro is Monday (19 Mar); note as well that Draghi's somewhat dovish ECB conference comments earlier this morning have since seen the Euro come off a bit.
13 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed with eyes on today's release of the Feb CPI; volatility is light, although the Yen (still not as yet formally characterized as a BEGOS component) has traded 125% of its EDTR. One shorter-term MRT we've been following is Gold's 60-min MACD, the crossovers having exhibited good follow-through in both directions, at lease of late; Gold's "Baby Blues" are finally breaking down after having clung to just below their 0% axis for a month: buying the price dips below what presently shows at 1319 in the Market Profile has been in play much of this year-to-date.
12 Mar '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo continues rallying in starting the week; the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are basically flat-to-lower, the metals being the downside leaders with Copper -1.0%, Silver -0.8% and Gold -0.6%. The Gold Update points to the buying of dips of late within an overall trendless pattern, and similarly so for Silver. Even should the S&P travel higher to exceed its all-time high (2872, 26 Jan), we'll still look to 2154 as a 25%+ correction target. A muted day today for the Econ Baro, however it shall collect 19 metrics as the week unfolds.
09 Mar '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light with payrolls data in the balance. The Market Ranges page depicts a narrowing of EDTRs: this in turn is increasing the list of studies to note on the Market Rhythms page as "Optimal Contract Profits" (for MRTs - Market Rhythm Targets) become less aggressive to achieve. Yesterday's drop in the Euro from the 1.24s now down into the 1.22s has brought price back into line with its Market Magnet. Cac volume for the Spoo is moving from Mar into Jun. Following the Dept. of Labor numbers, due as well today for the Econ Baro are Wholesale Inventories.
08 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper is the big mover amongst the BEGOS Markets, all of which are in the red , save for the Spoo; the red metal is the weakest of the bunch, -1.4%, and has traced 102% of its EDTR; volatility is otherwise light-to-moderate. The Euro, which has slipped down into its 1.23 handle, appears nonetheless "high" relative to its Market Magnet, with the ECB and Draghi on deck. Per Market Profiles, the Spoo's support-to-resistance range is 2718 to 2747, with price fairly centered therein for the moment at 2732. The Econ Data calendar is minimal today ahead of the StateSide Dept. of Labor stats tomorrow.
07 Mar '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Cohn's resigning from the Econ Council during the sole hour the BEGOS Market's are closed (14:00-15:00 PT) saw the Spoo drop from its settle of 2724 to as low as 2681 before clambering back above the 2700 level, (presently 2703); the EuroCurrencies and PMs all had gains, only to now have given them back, such that to this point the components are mixed and overall volatility is light-to-moderate. As to the Spoo's perhaps closing the gap, we've a bevy of overhead resistors from 2710 up to 2724, all of which obviously were instantly hoovered by the gap-down open, but may be harder to recover in riding back up. The Econ Baro looks for a slowing in the ADP jobs data; due as well is the Fed's Tan Tome.
06 Mar '18, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is more ramped up than 'twas at this time yesterday and net price changes are larger, led on the upside by both Copper and Silver with gains presently better than +1.0%. The Euro is back above 1.24, and the Bond is returning toward its low of two weeks ago in the mid-142s. The Swiss Franc by its Market Profile has traded therein up into the most dominant resistor of 1.0670. The Spoo for the present seems firm above its dominant Market Profile support of 2719, our broader expectation for the 25% correction notwithstanding. Gold appears entrapped between its Market Profile support of 1319 and resistor of 1331. A decline in Factory Orders is expected to hit the Econ Baro.
05 Mar '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed to start the week and volatility is light: again, that's relative to recent increases in the components EDTRs, as per the Market Ranges page, volatility is higher across the board than at this time a year ago. The Gold Update points to a negative (sub-50) cross by Gold's weekly Moneyflow study which historically would suggest Gold this time 'round would re-visit at least the 1290s, (last week's low was 1304); the missive also reiterates our expectation for a full 25% S&P correction (to 2154). Q4 Earnings season for 2017 is complete: 65% of the 2,217 reports gathered improved their bottom lines over Q4 of 2016: that is the highest improved percentage we've recorded since Q3 of 2006; but the overall S&P p/e remains vastly unsupportive of the current Index level; (59% of the 462 S&P companies that reported were better). Note: our S&P 500 Valuations & Rankings is temporarily not updating daily as the data broadcaster is in a migration to a new source provider, expected to be complete by mid-month. ISM(Svc) due for the Econ Baro.
02 Mar '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Volatility is picking up for the BEGOS Markets, ranging this session from moderate to robust, the Swiss Franc notably having traded 113% of its EDTR. The components are mixed with Oil the biggest loser -1.1%. A lower open for the S&P is being pointing to by the Spoo: presently 2667, a reference level to keep in mind in the 06 Feb low of 2529, as what we see as a 25% correction (to S&P 2154) unfolds by Nov (StateSide mid-term elections); bids and offers for the Spoo continue to run at sub-normal size, in turn making for swift intra-day moves. Today marks the final day of Q4 Earnings Season, which for the S&P 500 finds some 59% bettering their Q4 of a year ago.
01 Mar '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the 7 other BEGOS Markets all are lower, the PMs leading to the downside with both Gold and Silver -0.8%; as noted in The Gold Update, price has not traded sub-1300 during 2018, however 'tis close to so doing here at 1308. Markets' volatility is light-to-moderate, and skittishness is evident at the Market Rhythms page by the shorter lengths appearing under the "Study's Timeframe" column. Fed Chairman Powell goes before the Senate Banking Committee on a day of much incoming Econ Data highlighted by the FOMC's preferred inflation reading of the PCE Price Index, plus Personal Income/Spending, the ISM(Mfg) Index, Construction Spending, and vehicle sales.
28 Feb '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The positive cross of the 8-hr. MACD on Gold was very short-lived, the study whipping back to the negative side in turn nixing our MRT for a 14.7-point loss (-$1,470/cac), barring tighter cash management. That noted, Gold has been firm, along with Silver, so far this session, which for the BEGOS Markets otherwise is mixed and volatility mostly light relative to recent days/weeks per the Market Ranges page's EDTRs. The Euro has traded down to its lowest level since 18 Jan. Cac vol for the Bond is moving from Mar into Jun; at Market Trends, the Bond's "Baby Blues" have been working their way up off the floor. Metrics for the Econ Baro today include the 2nd look at Q4 GDP, plus the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales.
27 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold's 8-hr. MACD confirmed its positive cross yesterday to give us an MRT (from the 16:00 period's opening level at 1333.8) of 1343.8. Most of the BEGOS Markets are lower ahead of new Fed Chairman Powell delivering his first testimony to the House Financial Services panel; only the EuroCurrencies are mildly up, and volatility is narrow across the board, save for Copper which has traced 62% of its EDTR. At Market Values, the five primary BEGOS Markets are in large part reeled in from their recent extremes, albeit the Euro still appears somewhat high. Durable Orders and Consumer Confidence work into the Econ Baro today. The cac volume for Silver is moving from Mar into May.
26 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The Dollar must be lower as (save for a wee decline in Oil) all the BEGOS Markets are higher, Gold notably having scampered back up into the 1240s. Gold's 8-hr. MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, which if confirmed come 08:00 PT would give us an MRT of 10 points higher ($1,000/cac) from that period's opening price. Copper's cac volume is moving from the Mar cac into that for May. 'Tis a busy week for incoming Econ Data beginning today with New Home Sales, and the final week of Q4 Earnings Season: as yet again reiterated in The Gold Update, whilst earnings of S&P companies are comparably better, they remain nowhere supportive of the Index's current level. Thus our expectations remain firm for a 25% S&P move down to 2154, our thinking still being by the StateSide elections in Nov.
23 Feb '18, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Bond looks to be getting up on its feet, at session highs as we speak, and notably the "Baby Blues" too in real-time have curled a tad higher, albeit at -90% they've yet to prove themselves (by reaching up above the -80% level); nonetheless, the Bond is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets which otherwise are mildly mixed and volatility mostly light. The Econ Baro is set for the week, but next week is heavy-set with incoming data. Q4 Earnings Season still has a week to roll: overall, 67% of reports have bettered their bottom lines of Q4 a year ago, but specific to the S&P 500, only 60% have improved.
22 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The 12-hr. Parabolics provisional Long signal for the Bond briefly confirmed yesterday before whipping back to Short at 00:00 PT with but a bare gain. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, and volatility is running light-to-moderate. Notably for the Spoo, daily volume is up a bit from normal levels, however bids and offers remain at best 50% of their typical size; thus we continue to see material price swings: at Market Ranges, the Spoo's present EDTR of 65 points is still well above the median of around 15 points per day. Leading (lagging) Indicators for January come due for the Econ Baro.
21 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond's 12-hr. Parabolics are provisionally flipped to Long: should confirm come at 12:00 PT, we'd have an MRT for a full point higher ($1,000/cac) from the opening price at that time; the Bond's "Baby Blues" per the Market Trends page have been crawling across the floor for some three weeks, price itself having on balance been in decline since 18 Dec. With the Dollar firming for the 4th straight session, the BEGOS Markets, save for a small gain in the Bond, are all flat to mildly lower, and volatility is light. Oil at 61.50 is its most commonly traded price in the past 2 weeks per the Market Profile. Existing Home Sales work into the Econ Baro today, plus the minutes of the Fed's 30-31 Jan meeting get released.
20 Feb '18, 04:29 Pacific Time: The two-day day session now finds all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil, having come off, the Dollar continuing to firm since its Thu close. With respect to the S&P, the current Gold Update put forth "Let the selling resume", the Index having completed on Fri the Golden Ratio retracement as measured per our 16 Feb comment and the Spoo at present clearly pointing to a lower opening for stocks; as well, the Spoo finished Friday 75 points above its Market Magnet. Session volatility is moderate-to robust, the Swiss Franc notably having traced 109% of its EDTR. 'Tis a very muted week for incoming Econ Data: just 3 items are schedule to hit the Econ Baro; still, a robust dose of Q4 earnings are due.
19 Feb '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue Globex session is quite muted; Monday StateSide holidays can nonetheless offer material moves in the BEGOS Markets as the balance of the world continues on, albeit this time 'round there are Asian bourses shut for the Lunar New Year; still, with EDTRs of late running well above normal, 'tis almost eerily quiet out there. The PMs remain firm and Oil is +1.1%; otherwise volatility is mostly light. The Gold Update points to price readying to hurdle Base Camp 1377 for the run to 1400; also cited are the somewhat stagflationary metrics that worked into the Econ Baro last week. As to Q4 Earnings Season, with 365 of the S&P 500 having reported, 224 (61%) have bettered their like quarter of a year ago, an improvement over what we've see saw in recent quarters; however, our p/e measures for the Index remain exorbitantly high (per our Valuations & Rankings page).
16 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Spoo's "Golden Ratio" retracement from the 06 Feb low (2629) to the 29 Jan high (2878) is 2745: the session's high thus far is 2746; (intra-day for the S&P 'tis 2742 and on a closing basis 2761). Amongst the BEGOS Markets correlations, the Spoo and Euro have been positively-correlated on a day-to-day basis such that we've not seen since 2011; the Dollar (88.720) is testing the resistance peaks (for support) from 2009 and 2011. Gold is losing session firmness after having traded 1364, (the year's high thus far being 1365). Volatility is again light-to-moderate with housing, Ex/Im pricing and UofM sentiment data in the balance for the Econ Baro.
15 Feb '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Spoo is working higher, albeit (save for the Bond), the recent spate of all the other BEGOS Markets moving together appears in abate, the 3 metals and Oil in decline. Of note, were the Spoo to reach (per its page) its guesstimated "high if an up day" of 2748, 'toward be right in the neighbourhood of a .618 Gold Ratio retracement from the 2529 low on 06 Feb back up to the all-time high of 2878.50 on 29 Jan. Gold has come within several points (1359) of its high for this year (1365) such that yet again Base Camp 1377 seems ripe for the taking within the overall current weekly parabolic Long trend. Volatility (again giving due to the increased EDTRs) is running light-to-moderate. A bevy of data hits the Econ Baro today, including the PPI, NY Empire State Index, Philly Fed Index, IndProd/CapUtil and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 Feb '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: No sooner did we write yesterday that 'tis rare for a 1-hr. study to make the Market Rhythms page, (the Spoo 1-hr. study not surviving making the list a second day), that we've another: the 1-hr. Price Oscillator study on Oil: in the last 7 tests, it has had price follow-though of at least $1,400/cac (1.40 points) 5 times; again, to be judiciously managed. Ahead of an "all eyes on the Core CPI" number (05:30 PT), BEGOS Markets volatility is light, considering the increased EDTRs on the Market Ranges page: in fact, that for the Spoo (68 points) has kinked down by better than a full point for the first time since 28 Dec. Also due today for the Econ Baro are Retail Sales and Business Inventories.
13 Feb '18, 04:31 Pacific Time: It is rare for a 1-hr. study to make the Market Rhythms page, but the Spoo's 1-hr. MACD has presently the qualifications, given how volatile the S&P has been: 7 of the past 10 crossings have exceeded the requisite hurdle of $1,000/cac (20 points) in follow-through, indeed those 7 each reaching at least $1,600 (32 points) in follow-through: mind that study (as all studies) judiciously, for as always, cash management is critical. Given the increase in the BEGOS Markets EDTRs, volatility thus far this session is comparatively light-to-moderate, the Spoo actually with the narrowest EDTR tracing of just 33%. Only the Spoo and Oil are lower. The week's heavy load of EconData starts to kick in tomorrow.
12 Feb '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are starting the week higher. The Gold Update looks for only limited price downside, (ideally avoiding the 1200s), but for the S&P to broadly work lower culminating in a 25% correction, (which on a closing basis from the all-time high of 2872 on 26 Jan would be down to 2154, the time frame being perhaps out as far as the StateSide mid-term Nov elections); there simply is little if any material structural support down along that range; at 2154, we've estimated a p/e for the S&P (adjusted too for the less burdensome corporate income tax rate) of around 16x on a median non-cap-weighted basis vs. today's 39x. Mind the rising EDTRs -- especially for the Spoo -- at the Market Ranges page.
09 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: As was the case at this time yesterday all the BEGOS Markets are lower, the Spoo having abandoned earlier gains to this point. At 2595, the Spoo is better than 100 points below its Market Magnet of 2734, and in real-time nearly 200 points below is smooth valuation line per our Market Values page. Volatility is mostly moderate across the components. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" are (and indeed have been) falling for the entire bunch, albeit the Euro and Swiss Franc still are sporting 21-day linreg uptrends; Gold's is flat and those for the other 5 markets are down. Q4 Earnings Season is through the 1/2-way mark with 69% doing better than year ago; specific to the S&P 500, with 313 companies having reported, 65% are ahead of a year ago; still the p/e measure(s) per our "Valuation & Rankings " page remain excessively high, even given the Index's recent pullback. Wholesale Inventories come due for the Econ Baro.
08 Feb '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, (so obviously the Dollar must be higher). Spoo market depth continues to be comparably thin, albeit volume has backed off from what we saw Mon/Tue: still, the EDTR is 59 points, some 3-to-4 times normal. Market Profile support for the Spoo lies in the 2643-2636 zone; 2690 is resistance. Whilst the EDTRs are up for every component, as displayed on the Market Ranges page, none have multiplied nearly as much as has that for the Spoo. Mind Gold as it is testing the Oct peak of 1308, after which there is the Nov peak at 1299: so far this year, having yet again neared Base Camp 1377 has proved resistive for the yellow metal; the weekly parabolic Long trend nonetheless remains in place, (1257 being this week's flip level).
07 Feb '18, 04:41 Pacific Time: Whilst the Spoo has been back on the skids, now at 2680 'tis some 20 points off the session's low; still bids and offers remain thin -- notably this week just (by our glancing) some 5%-10% of normal per price point -- with cac volume double that of normal: thus these swings reminiscent of 2008's Black Swan unwinding. Should such conditions continue, a 25% correction from 26 January may well will out. Keep an eye on the Spoo's page ("S&P 500" under "BEGOS Markets") especially on the Magnets Chart: as price and magnet return to equilibrium we expect the selling to continue. A 10% correction for the S&P (closing basis) arrives at 2586: Mon's close has been the nearest at 2649, (and intra-day 2593). Given the rising EDTRs for all of the BEGOS Markets, we see this session's volatility thus far as moderate across all the components.
06 Feb '18, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's change needs to be +30 points for a "break even" S&P opening, (they're presently -32, thus a +62 swing is required by the opening bell). Yesterday at 10:00 PT, trading in the Spoo turned reminiscent of that during late 2008: vast points changes in seconds with bid and offer sizes just 10% of normal; thin and dangerous trading conditions, which have not really spilled into the other BEGOS Markets components. For example this session, only the Bond and Spoo have traded in excess of the EDTRs. Mind the Market Ranges page, and especially the Spoo page. The Trade Deficit works into the Econ Baro today.
05 Feb '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Silver is the session's big winner to this point, +1.6%: The Gold Update cites the Gold/Silver ratio having topped 80x for just the fourth time since 2001, and that historically, the white metal has then found itself as much as 20%-40% higher within six months. Another down opening appears in store for the S&P, for which the Spoo has finally returned to below its smooth valuation line (Market Values) and is now extremely "low" by its Market Magnet. Still, even in the face of an improved Q4 Earnings Season, bottom lines themselves remain terrifically low vis-à-vis the level of the S&P, which would remain "expensive" even down at 2150 should a 25% correction be underway, the cut in the corporate tax rate notwithstanding. ISM(Svc) due today for the Econ Baro.
02 Feb '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Spoo has swiftly reached its 2800.75 MRT; the "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page have only begun to crack, such that should this structural in the low 2800s let go, a run down into the 2750s wouldn't be untoward; in real-time, price is now just 21 points above its smooth valuation line, coming off the "high" extremes seen for some time at Market Values. The Bond is trying to firm after falling four of the past 5 sessions: price has been in an overall downtrend since mid-Dec with rates increasing on the longer-end of the yield curve. All 8 BEGOS Market are in the red and volatility is light-to-moderate, save for that of the Spoo, which has traded 126% of its EDTR. In the balance for the Econ Baro come data on payrolls and Factory Orders.
01 Feb '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: The daily MACD on the Spoo is confirmed as negative: this study because of a too-aggressive Target has not been qualifying for the Market Rhythms page, however follow-through by at least 28 points ($1,400/cac) has been achieved in 7 of the last crossings; note: the 3 failures to reach that far all were to the Shortside; still, we view the S&P has having entered a period (finally) of being vulnerable to significant downside. Thus 28 points below this session's opening at 2828.75 yields an MRT of 2800.75. (Much more broadly, as is noted in The Gold Update, a 25% correction in the S&P would still find it "expensive"; there is structural support in the S&P 2200-2000 area to culminate such a correction). Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed. On the Market Trends page, the "Baby Blues" are beginning to breakdown for the Spoo, Gold and Oil. Q4 Productivity, plus ISM(Mfg), Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales all come due for the Econ Baro.
31 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo is getting a bounce this session, but thus far 'tis not enough to thwart a provisional crossing to negative of the daily MACD, which if confirmed come session's end can establish a downside Market Rhythm Target, likely beyond which can see a run down to some structural support 'round the bottom of the 2800s. All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the black, the Dollar thus obviously lower; volatility again is moderate. Today's metrics for the Econ Baro include the ADP jobs reading, Q4's ECI, the Chi PMI and Pending Home Sales. Today also marks Yellen's final overseeing of an FOMC policy statement, to be released at 11:00 PT with no scheduled press conference.
30 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: Back-to-back down openings for the StateSide stock market? Odd indeed. The Spoo's daily MACD is nearing a negative crossover: barring it not getting confirmed as the week unfolds, we'll likely have an MRT at least 20 points lower upon confirmation; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" at the Market Trends page have yet to crack. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate: Oil is the weakest component, -1.0%, yet its Baby Blues too have yet to break down. At Market Values, both the Spoo and Oil are still at fairly high extremes. Gold's cac volume is rolling from Feb into Apr, adding some 5 points in contango. A higher Consumer Confidence number is expected for the Econ Baro.
29 Jan '18, 04:12 Pacific Time: A down opening for the StateSide stock market? How odd. The Spoo had worked its way higher from the 15:00 PT Sunday opening, but has spent the last 8 hours in the red. From the Spoo's page, the "low if a down day" guesstimate is 2856.25, however should the selling get accelerative, there are Market Profile supports at 2849 and notably so at 2840. The Gold Update suggests that Friday's straight up S&P 500 finale was a blow-off top. Save for a mild gain in Copper, all 7 of the other BEGOS Markets are lower and volatility is mostly moderate. Oil and the Bond are the weakest of the bunch, both -0.5%, and the latter has traced 120% of its EDTR. Mind the high "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page as various components look poised to crack. Personal Income/Spending kick off a busy incoming data week for the Econ Baro, along with a no-go FOMC decision come Wednesday.
26 Jan '18, 04:36 Pacific Time: The first read of Q4 GDP arrives today: by the Econ Baro, the first 2/3rds of actual Q4 data received (Nov to the Baro's 20 Dec peak) was waxing, the latter 1/3 since then waning.; Durables for Dec come due as well. Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are rising. At the Market Values page, the Bond is as low vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line as has been the case in better than a year, whilst both Oil and the Spoo are at extreme high deviations; however, the readings at the Market Magnets page for those three components page are not as stressed as they've been. Most volatile this session are the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss and the Euro itself having exceeded 100% of their respective EDTRs.
25 Jan '18, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold has surpassed last year's high of 1362, reaching up thus far in this session to 1365: that brings into play the 2016 high at Base Camp 1377, the centerpiece of significant resistance these past four years after its having been support following Gold's fall from the All-Time High of 1923 (06 September 2011). The Euro has traded just short of the 1.25 level ahead of the ECB policy announcement and Mario Draghi's comments. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. New Home Sales and Leading Indicators come due for the Econ Baro.
24 Jan '18, 04:15 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond, the other 7 BEGOS Markets are higher, Gold notably having traded up through the 1350 level: its young weekly parabolic Long trend seems to have price headed toward testing last year's high of 1362, and in turn taking a shot of 2016's high at Base Camp 1377; as noted in The Gold Update's scoreboard, our "conservative" high call for the yellow metal this year is 1434. The Spoo higher yet again, but appears very much as was the case yesterday to be lacking further material upside push. Volatility is moderate, and the Existing Home Sales report is expected to show slowing.
23 Jan '18, 04:35 Pacific Time: The MRT for Copper of 3.1600 was reached, and then some, price reaching down in the 3.13s, presently -2.0% and sporting an EDTR tracing of 159%, the "Baby Blues" also in full plummet. The BEGOS Markets otherwise are mildly lower, save for modest gains in the Bond and Gold. Of the 14 completed trading days year-to-date, the S&P has only had 3 that were net losers: today may be the 4th, the Spoo having given back most of its rising finale from yesterday's last hour of stock market trading; in real-time, the Spoo is 88 points above its smooth valuation line and 50 points above its Market Magnet, both readings being "extreme" to the upside.
22 Jan '18, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's daily Moneyflow remains below the 50 level which is keeping the MRT of 3.1600 in play: the red metal's EDTR is 0.0505, so the distance from the present 3.2095 level to the MRT is within range should a normal down day or two ensue. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are starting the week higher: only Oil and the Spoo are off a bit, and volatility is moderate. Q4 Earnings Season is still quite young, but clearly on the improve this time around: specific to the S&P 500, 35 companies have reported, of which 29 (83%) have bettered their bottom lines; for Q3 only 41% had risen. That noted, no matter how much we "dumb it down" at "The S&P 500: --Valuation & Rankings" page, the p/e ratio for the Index remains unsupportably high such that even a correction of 25% -- which we anticipate is sitting out there -- shall still leave stocks very expense by portfolio valuation methods.
19 Jan '18, 04:22 Pacific Time: Further firming in the EuroCurrencies has turned the Swiss Franc's 4-hr. MACD back to positive thus nixing our MRT of 1.0302; still, Copper's MRT of 3.1600 remains alive as the daily Moneyflow is still sub-50. Oil's "Baby Blues" in real-time are beginning to roll over: we see structural support in the 62.20 area. Since Wednesday, the Spoo keeps running out of puff up in the 2805-2809 range: 'tis again the case to this point in this session; the Spoo's Baby Blues remain high in the sky, but by the Market Values and Market Magnets pages, price continues to appear at high extremes. UofM's sentiment is expected to show enthusiasm continuing to build.
18 Jan '18, 04:16 Pacific Time: Firmness returns to the EuroCurrencies: the 4-hr. MACD on the Swiss Franc remains negative, but that stance is waning such that the MRT of 1.0302 looks to be in jeopardy; the currency is also the most volatile of this session's BEGOS Markets, having traced 113% of its EDTR. Copper's daily Moneyflow is still sub-50, keeping the MRT of 3.1600 in play. From the Market Trends page, Gold's "Baby Blues" in real-time have dropped a notch, albeit still are strong at +92%; those for Oil look vulnerable to soon cracking. Some weakness is expected in the housing data and Philly Fed Index which would further lend to the Econ Baro's recent decline.
17 Jan '18, 04:38 Pacific Time: The EuroCurrencies are coming a bit off their recent boil; of note, the Swiss Franc's 4-hour MACD confirmed turning negative: generally, shorter time frames don't make the Market Rhythms page, but this one has for an MRT (as measured from the confirmed 00:00 PT crossing at 1.0430) of 1.0302. Copper's MRT of 3.1600 remains in place, the daily Moneyflow working lower still: at Market Trends, the red metal's "Baby Blues" (in real-time) are down to the +20% level and look to go sub-0% by week's end (barring a strong rally) which would also mean the 21-day linreg trend will have turned negative. Trade in the PMs is mixed and the is Spoo firmer following yesterday's fallout: but the swift selling we saw suggests the S&P has reached a point of fragility.
16 Jan '18, 04:18 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue GLOBEX session continues with most of the BEGOS components exceeding 100% of their EDTRs given it all being counted as a single trading day; yet no one component is presently changed by 1% either way. Copper is lower, the daily Moneyflow falling further sub-50, the 3.1600 MRT thus still targeted. The PMs are taking a breather, yet the "Baby Blues" remain +80% for both Gold and Silver. As anticipated, Spoo has now traded above 2800: at the Market Values page, the Spoo is nearing 100 points above its smooth valuation line, an extreme high reading; at Market Magnets, the Spoo shows having strayed by more than 50 points to the upside. Expectations are for the NY Empire Index to have improved.
15 Jan '18, 04:34 Pacific Time: StateSide bourses are shut for MLK Day; the BEGOS Markets are in a Sun-Tue trading session with a halt later today from 10:00 PT - 15:00 PT. Strength in the Euro Currencies now finds the Swiss Franc above 1.04 and the Euro itself topping 1.23; the Spoo is in record-high territory, the 2800 handle nearly having traded. Copper is +1.5%, but its daily Moneyflow confirmed going sub-50 such as to give us an MRT (as measured from the session's open at 3.2240) of 3.1600; as well, the red metal's "Baby Blues" continue their steady descent. The PMs are higher: The Gold Update cites the weekly parabolic trend having flipped to Long, with Base Camp 1377 in turn a reasonable upside goal. Note too the recent keeling over of the Econ Baro.
12 Jan '18, 04:33 Pacific Time: Quickly nixed is the MRT we'd set just yesterday for the Euro as weak StateSide inflation data and positive German political coalition has sent the currency to its highest level since Dec 2104 at 1.21830. Dollar weakness is also working to the benefit of the Swiss Franc, Silver and Gold, the latter making a new high in the young year at 1333.8. Copper, which has been in mild decline for some 2 weeks, the "Baby Blues" also furthering their fall, is just now seeing its daily Moneyflow cross sub-50%: if confirmed by day's end 'twould suggest an MRT of an additional 0.0640 ($1,600/cac) lower. Oil's daily chart suggests a "blow off" high yesterday at 64.77. CPI, Retail Sales and Business Inventories all work into the Econ Baro today.
11 Jan '18, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Euro confirmed its daily Parabolics flipping to short (see 09 Jan), albeit price has since bounced a bit from yesterday's designated opening at 1.19850; still the MRT is set for 1.11810. As well, Silver's daily Parabolics also have flipped to Short, however given the strength of the PMs, we shan't chase the "would be" MRT there of 16.385. That said, the "Baby Blues" for both the Euro and Silver, as well as those for the Swiss Franc, Gold (barely) and for a week now Copper are all in decline, all having reached well above their respective +80% levels as displayed on the Market Trends page. The Spoo's 9-session win streak was snapped yesterday, but price pre-PPI is presently suggestive of a +5 point opening for the S&P.
10 Jan '18, 04:00 Pacific Time: The Bond is reaching down to levels not seen since last March: 'tis said that "officials reviewing China’s foreign-exchange holdings" have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries. This in turn is also dragging down the Spoo, the S&P having finished higher for the last 9 trading days. Dollar weakness is pushing the PMs above last week's closing levels. Per the Spoo's page, the "high if a down day" of 2753.25 is thus far precisely that (in a carryover candle from the prior session), the "low if a down day" set at 2736.50; given a low already of 2737.25, the Market Profile support price at 2734 looks likely, the next in line being 2726.00.
09 Jan '18, 04:02 Pacific Time: The daily Parabolics on both the Euro and Swiss Franc are provisionally flipping to Short: at the Market Rhythms page, the Swiss Franc is not listed as its MRT falls short of the requisite $1,000/cac criteria, however 8 of its last 10 flips have then traveled at least an additional $900/cac; for the Euro, the additional travel is listed as $1,300/cac, that distance having been achieved following 7 of the past 10 flips. The BEGOS Markets are more lively that we saw 'round this time yesterday: the Yen is not (as yet) officially a component, but it shot up like a rocket last evening upon the BOJ's announcing a trimming in its long bond purchases, swiftly sending the currency well up beyond our "high if an up day" guesstimate of .89040 to as much as .89190 before giving back that quintessential 62% Golden Ratio amount and since return higher. Joining the EuroCurrencies on the weak side are the PMs.
08 Jan '18, 04:28 Pacific Time: Copper's "Baby Blues" have notched lower for the 2nd straight session: they've room to further fall given they're still +80% (at 84%); the center area of Copper's prior down trend that ran from mid-Oct into early Dec is 'round the 3.10 handle; or from that Dec low to the late Dec high, a Golden Ratio retracement would come in 'round the 3.06 handle; so from this 3.22 handle, 'twould be a meaty move should a Short ride get down to those areas. The Euro's daily Parabolics look to get tripped to the Short side in the next session or two; the Euro is the most rangy component of the BEGOS Markets, in what is otherwise a mixed session of medium volatility. The Gold Update upgrades its scoreboard and substantiates an up year for the PMs.
05 Jan '18, 04:24 Pacific Time: A bevy of data hits the Econ Baro today: Payrolls, Trade Deficit, Factory Orders and ISM(Svc). In advance of it all, 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are down: only the Spoo is higher in taking a run at the R1 daily pivot at 2733. As noted, our watch for Copper's "Baby Blues" finally sees them down in real-time, price itself having worked lower since the 28 Dec high of 3.322: the red metal had recorded 14 consecutive up trading days from 8 through 28 Dec. No new MRT for the present: the Market Rhythms page itself lists but 6 Rhythms that are meeting our signaling requirements, suggestive that price follow-through has been well below average of late. That doesn't mean markets haven't been trending: the Euro, Gold, Silver Copper, Oil and Spoo all have been in solid up trends - but so much so that technical study crossovers have been minimal. (Stay tuned).
04 Jan '18, 04:03 Pacific Time: Yes, the MRT of 2662.00 for the Spoo is all but nixed: its daily MACD histogram remains barely negative even with the Spoo up further this morning, but a close north of 2015 likely shall cross the study to positive; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are firming rather than following-through to lower levels: they're spot on +80% in real-time. We're watching Copper's Baby Blues: they continue to climb in real-time, however price ran out of upside puff at year-end; also the red metal's daily Moneyflow study looks like it shan't remain firm (77 on a scale of 0-100) much longer. ADP jobs data today precedes the gov't data tomorrow.
03 Jan '18, 04:00 Pacific Time: Despite the up-push of the Spoo to this point of the new year, the new highs remain pip-by-pip minimal: 2698.00 on both 18 & 19 Dec; 2698.25 on 29 Dec; and now 2698.50 so far this session; the lack of material upside follow-through is what tripped the daily MACD to negative on 27 Dec; our MRT thus remains 2662.00; the Spoo's Market Value is some 50 points "high" above its smooth valuation line; also the Spoo these last two weeks has been in negative correlation with the Bond, which is firmer this morning. ISM(Mfg), Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales arrive today for the Econ Baro. Probably nothing surprising from the FOMC Minutes as Chair Yellen gave her final press conference thereto back on 13 Dec.
02 Jan '18, 04:12 Pacific Time: New Year Greetings. We've decided to change this section up a bit: a little less doctrinaire, regurgitative and form-fitting; perhaps more useful and informative. Less is oft more, more is sometimes required. Specific quote data is only what 'tis when we write and readers likely have it all at the ready in their own form. The unique content of this site is what gives it value and one can poke to one's desire around the various pages. Drawing from those and other sources, we look to cite that which is of timely interest to us, be it Market Rhythm Targets (MRT), the Econ Baro, Earnings truth, the Market Trends' "Baby Blues", Profiles, Magnets, Values, et alia. In starting 2018, The Gold Update describes a conservative high for this year of 1434, or aggressively 1526. The Spoo's daily MACD remains negative toward an MRT of 2662.00 and in real-time the Baby Blues have slipped below 80%. Have a great year and Cheers!
29 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2695.00, +0.4%) looks like it may make a run to touch 2700 before the year is out, (the all-time high being 2698); that noted, the daily MACD continues it negative course toward keeping viable the 2662.00 Market Rhythm Target, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) whilst still +80%, have nudged lower still for the 7th straight session; the Spoo has closed lower on the last trading day for the past 4 years, but never for a 5th millennium-to-date. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate. A Safe and Happy New Year to our valued readers!
28 Dec '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (16.790, +0.2%) reached the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780; we've a new Target for the Spoo (2688.25, +0.1%) of 2662.00 per the MACD's negative crossing; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for some 3 weeks remain +80%, but are showing mild decline; 2687 is Market Profile support. Save for the Bond (152^16, -0.3%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Copper (3.3030, +0.7%); the rangiest component is the Swiss (1.0253, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 133%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Chi PMI due @ 06:45 PT.
27 Dec '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2689.25, +0.1%) daily MACD is provisionally crossing to negative: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 22 points ($1,100/cac) lower from the next session's opening level; Silver's (16.655, +0.3%) daily Parabolics still are Long, toward the 16.780 Target; the white metal is the BEGOS Markets' upside leader, whilst weakest is Oil (59.49, -0.5%); volatility is light-to-moderate. At Market Values, Gold's (1289.3, +0.1%) good run these last 2 weeks only has it just now returning up to its valuation line. Consumer Confidence/Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Dec '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Bond (150^30, -0.1%) and EuroCurrencies are lower in starting the week, the weakest component being the Swiss (1.0168, -0.3%); the balance of the bunch are higher, led by Copper (3.2810, +1.1%), the red metal also with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 130%. Silver's (16.495, +0.3%) daily Parabolics remain Long toward the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780; The Gold Update suggests white metal has room to run up into the 16.80-17.20 area which appears fairly price congestive per the daily bars from Oct-Nov as noted per Silver's "Baby Blues" graphic.
22 Dec '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Separatist victory in Catalonia has effectively shoved the Euro (1.19335, -0.2%) into the leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing position at 75%; the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets have very limited tracings such that volatility is light. Oil (58.05, -0.3%) is weakest, whilst firmest is Silver (16.255, +0.5%), the latter's daily Parabolics still Long, keeping the 16.780 Market Rhythm Target in play. The Spoo's (2690.00, +0.1%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain pasted on the ceiling. Personal Inc/Spd/PCE & Durables @ 05:30 PT; New Homes @ 07:00 PT. Merry Christmas!
21 Dec '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Volatility is light across the BEGOS Markets spectrum with just the Swiss (1.0193, -0.2%) reaching an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 50%; the Swiss is the weakest component whilst the Spoo (2687.00, +0.2%) is the firmest; at Market Values the Spoo is some 75 points "high", although price's distance above its Market Magnet has come off the recent extreme reading. Silver's (16.220, -0.1%) daily Parabolics remain Long, keeping intact the Market Rhythm Target of 16.780. Finalized Q3 GDP and Philly Fed Index due at 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators due at 07:00 PT.
20 Dec '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1745, +0.9%) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader, price approaching a 1-month high; the red metal is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 78%; otherwise, volatility is light, the narrowest component being Oil (57.76) with just a 21% tracing;weakest is the Swiss (1.0198, -0.3%). The daily Parabolics for Silver (16.260, +0.5%) remain Long in support of the 16.780 Market Rhythm Target. Save for the Spoo (2692.75, +0.3%), the 21-day linreg trends for the 7 other components are down, (even Copper's). Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
19 Dec '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.225, +0.2%) daily Parabolics confirmed flipping Long (from this session's open of 16.180) giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 16.780. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led to the downside by Copper (3.1280, -0.5%) and to the upside by Oil (57.53) and the Euro (1.18970) both +0.3%; volatility is mostly light. The Spoo's (2696.50, "unch") Market Profile shows support at 2695, but then quite an air pocket down to the next dominant supporters at 2671 and 2667; its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are on the ceiling. Housing/Permits/Q3 Current Account: 05:30 PT.
18 Dec '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: We're nixing the Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (cur 1.18780, +0.4%, tar 1.17845), the daily Parabolics are flipping to Long, as they are for Silver (16.140, +0.2%). Per our Market Rhythms page, confirmation of Silver's flip would target a level 0.600 points higher ($3,000/cac) as measured from the opening price of the ensuing session. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is mostly light, save for the EuroCurrencies, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings led by the Euro at 73% and then the Swiss (1.0208. +0.3%) at 69%. NAHB Housing comes due @ 07:00 PT.
15 Dec '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: With the EuroCurrencies rolling into Mar, we adjust our Market Rhythm Target for the Mar Euro (1.18875, +0.2%) from 1.17045 (Dec) to 1.17845 (Mar), the daily Parabolics still Short; the Euro is also the rangiest BEGOS Market with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 71%. 7 of the 8 components are higher, save for the Bond (154^01, "unch"): leading is Silver (16.015, +0.6%) for which today's hurdle to flip its daily Parabolics to Long is 16.150. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's cac volume is rolling into Feb (57.36, +0.3%). NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
14 Dec '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.18270, "unch"), if muted for the moment, is back above 1.18: however, 'twould have to cross into the 1.19s (this session) to flip the daily Parabolics to Long, so the 1.17045 Market Rhythm Target is still in place. Were Silver (16.065. -0.2%) today breach 16.180, its daily Parabolics would flip to Long. The BEGOS Markets are mildly "unch"-to-lower, save for Copper (3.0625, +0.2%) which is sporting an EDTR (See Market Ranges) tracing of 112%. Volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi/Retail Sales/Ex-Im Pricing: 05:30 PT; BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
13 Dec '17, 04:12 Pacific Time: Save for Copper (3.0475, +0.8%), the 7 other BEGOS Markets are little changed-to-mildly lower; volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper with an 83% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Silver (15.720,-0.2%) has but a 26% tracing. The Euro's (1.17415, "unch") daily Parabolics are still Short for the Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing sub-0% as the 21-day linreg trend goes negative; only the Spoo's (2666.50, -0.1%) and Oil's (57.44, "unch") are positive. CPI @ 05:30 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT; Yellen @ 11:30 PT.
12 Dec '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Volatility is mostly light for the BEGOS Markets, with only Oil (58.36, +0.6%) and the Swiss (1.0099, +0.1%) just exceeding 50% tracings of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges); Oil is also the firmest of the bunch, whilst the weakest is Copper (3.0060, -0.3%). The daily Parabolics for the Euro (1.17795, +0.1%) remain Short in support of our 1.17045 Market Rhythm Target; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies are still dropping, albeit the Swiss' blue dots in real-time are slowing their decline, (but not so those of the PMs). PPI due at 05:30 PT.
11 Dec '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17970, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering falling, the daily Parabolics Short such as to keep our Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045 in place. The BEGOS Markets are quiet and volatility is light-to-moderate, led by Copper's (2.9835, +0.1%) EDTR (see Market Ranges) 60% tracing; narrowest is the Spoo (2656.00, "unch") with a 22% tracing. The Precious Metals, whilst not losing more ground thus far, appear subject to near-term weakness, The Gold Update depicting December net weakness for Gold (1251.3, +0.1%) across 6 of the past 7 years.
08 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: We've another mixed session for the BEGOS Markets, led by Oil (57.41, +1.4%) which is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 80%; volatility is moderate across the board; weakest are the EuroCurrencies, the Swiss (1.0032) and the Euro (1.17420) both -0.3%; the latter's daily Parabolics remain Short toward our Market Rhythm Target of 1.17045; the EuroCurrencies' "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to accelerate their respective descents. Payrolls data due @ 05:30 PT; Wholesale Inventories & UofM Sentiment due @ 07:00 PT.
07 Dec '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17935, -0.1%) daily Parabolics confirmed flipping to Short for a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's 1.18085 open) of 1.17045. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed with moderate volatility, the PMs leading to the downside with Silver (15.840, -0.8%) and Gold (1257.1, -0.7%); per The Gold Update, "The Box" of support for Gold is the 1280-1240 range. Copper (2.9740, +0.3%) is firmest, whilst the Swiss (1.0079, -0.3%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 86%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating lower for the EuroCurrencies.
06 Dec '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The Bond's (153^31, -0.2%) 12-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Long, nixing our 150^20 Market Rhythm Target; Gold's (1270.2, +0.1%) Target of 1267.1 was achieved. The Euro's (1.18185, -0.1%) daily Parabolics are nearing a flip to Short (at 1.18010): confirmation would set a Target of 0.01040 points lower ($1,300/cac) from the ensuing session's open; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping. The BEGOS Markets are mixed; volatility is moderate. Firmest is Copper (2.9740, +0.8%) and weakest is Oil (56.88, -1.0%). ADP: 05:15 PT; Q3 Prod(Rev): 05:30 PT.
05 Dec '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Copper (3.0265) which is well off at -2.0%; the red metal's EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is 168%. 2nd weakest is Oil (57.18, -0.5%) followed by Silver (16.315, -0.2%). The Bond's (152^31, -0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics are still Short, the Market Rhythm Target being 150^20. Gold's (1278.3, "unch") daily MACD confirmed a negative cross yesterday giving us a Target of 1267.1. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun rolling over from above +80%, suggestive of lower prices. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT.
04 Dec '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate as the week commences, the Swiss (1.0174, -0.7%) with the largest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 84%. Save for the Spoo (2659.75, +0.6%) and Copper (3.1025, +0.3%), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Silver (16.325, -0.9%); The Gold Update describes how the Gold/Silver ratio is nearing prior peak highs, but that present technicals portend lower PM prices into year-end. The Bond's (152^22, -0.3%) Market Rhythm Target of 150^20 is still intact, its 12-hr. Parabolics remaining Short. Factory Orders due at 07:00 PT.
01 Dec '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil (57.84, +0.7%) is the firmest of the BEGOS Markets, followed by the Bond (152^21, +0.5%); still the latter's 12-hr. Parabolics are Short in support of our Market Rhythm Target of 150^20; the Bond is also tracing the most of the EDTRs (see Market Ranges) at 118%; volatility is otherwise moderate. Silver (16.415, -0.3%) is the weakest of the bunch; 2nd lowest is the Spoo (2637.25, -0.2%), which may be pressured come a "sell tax bill passage news", or certainly so should such fail to go through. ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spdg: 07:00 PT; Senate tax voting: 08:00 PT.
30 Nov '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: After three days of decided drops, Copper (3.0845, +0.6%) is getting a bid, tied with Oil (57.71, +0.6%) for the BEGOS Markets best gainers; weakest is the Swiss (1.0141, -0.3%) followed by Gold (1284.0) and Silver (16.545), both -0.2%; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90% is the Euro (1.18545, "unch"); volatility is moderate. The Bond's (151^31, "unch") 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed flipping Short to give us a Market Rhythm Target (from an entry of 152^07) of 150^20. Personal Income/Spending/PCE due @ 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due @ 06:45 PT.
29 Nov '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Copper (3.0790, -0.5%) is yet again the BEGOS Markets downside leader, heading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 75%; the other components are mostly either side of "unch" and volatility is moderate. The Bond's (Dec 154^00, -0.3%) 12-hr. Parabolics are flipping to Short: 7 of the past 10 flips have had follow-through of at least 1^19 points ($1,600/cac); as volume in the Bond is moving from Dec into Mar, we look to set a downside Market Rhythm Target (basis Mar) after session's end. Q3 GDP 1st revision: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
28 Nov '17, 04:14 Pacific Time: Further fallout for Copper (3.1010, -1.7%), the red metal leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 132%; volatility is moderate for the balance of the bunch which are little changed, save for Oil (57.58, -0.5%); at Market Values, Oil is some 5 full points above its smooth valuation line, as extreme a distance as there's been year-over-year per the panel's oscillator; at Market Profiles, Oil shows trading support at 57.80, then failing that, at 56.70. The other 4 primary BEGOS Markets are in sync with their Market Value lines. Consumer Confidence comes due at 07:00 PT.
27 Nov '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: An active start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, Copper (1.1315, -1.3%) leading to the downside and sporting an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 108%; Gold (1293.9, +0.5%) is the firmest component, whilst most docile is the Bond (154^11, "unch"), its EDTR tracing the narrowest at just 37%. The Spoo's (2601.00, "unch") daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive, en route to nixing our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target. The Gold Update focuses on the yellow metal essentially trading in the 1200 "handle" for the past 5 years. New Home Sales due at 07:00 PT.
24 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Volatility for the BEGOS Markets is mostly moderate, led on the upside by Oil (58.80, +1.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 101%; as noted, we expect Oil's daily MACD to confirm a positive crossing by day's end which formally would nix the Market Rhythm Target of 52.61; still, the same study for the Spoo (2601.25, +0.3%) remains negative for the moment, the Target of 2536.75 likely to soon be nixed. Silver (17.030, -0.6%) is the weakest component, followed by Gold (1288.3) and the Bond (154^03), both -0.3%. Early closures from range from 10:15-10:45 PT.
23 Nov '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The "two-day" GLOBEX session for Friday settlement finds mild strength in the EuroCurrencies and weakness in the metals; BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil (57.87) is off the most at -0.3%: its daily MACD has provisionally crossed to positive, confirm of which shall nix the 52.61 Market Rhythm Target. That study on the Spoo (2597.25, +0.1%) remains just barely negative, the 2536.75 Target thus not yet nixed. Save for Copper (3.1295, -0.2%), the 7 other components all are sporting 21-day linreg uptrends. A Safe and Happy StateSide Thanksgiving to all!
22 Nov '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets are under threat of getting nixed as the daily MACDs, whilst still negative, for both the Spoo (cur 2599.00, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 57.79, tar 52.61), are bending toward positive crossings; Oil (+1.2%) is leading the BEGOS Markets, which otherwise are mildly higher, save for the Bond (153^22, -0.3%) and Copper (3.1250, -0.1%); volatility is mostly moderate, the Spoo being the least rangy of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 29% following yesterday's firm up move. Durables: 05:30 PT; FOMC Minutes (01 Nov): 11:00 PT.
21 Nov '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for the EuroCurrencies are all higher led by Silver (16.965) and Copper (3.1040), both +0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.17400, -0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 64%. The two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows per their negative daily MACDs: the Spoo (cur 2588.50, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 56.56, tar 52.61); the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to fall, but those for the Spoo in real-time have hitched higher within their downtrend. Existing Home Sales @ 07:00 PT.
20 Nov '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.17945, -0.1%) has recovered in full from a gap-down opening to as low as 1.17395, leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 129%; volatility is otherwise moderate for the BEGOS Markets, which save for the Bond (154^02, "unch") are all in the red; the weakest components are Silver (17.180) and Oil (56.38), both -0.7%. The latter's Market Rhythm Target of 52.61 is still maintained by the negative daily MACD, as by the same study is the Spoo's Target of 2536.75. Q3 Earnings Season is complete, with only 41% of the S&P y-o-y bettered. LEI: 07:00 PT.
17 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place per the respective daily MACDs both of which are negative for the Spoo (cur 2584.50, tar 2536.75) and Oil (cur 56.23, tar 52.61), the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) falling further for both components.. Save for the Spoo which is barely off, the BEGOS Markets are higher and volatility is light-to-moderate; Oil is the upside leader +1.4% as well as the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 93%; Silver (17.085, "unch") is the most docile with just a 26% tracing. Housing Starts/Permits at 05:30 PT.
16 Nov '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Silver (17.025), Copper (3.0590) and the Spoo (2572.50) are the BEGOS Markets upside leaders, all +0.3%; still, the Spoo's daily MACD continues its negativity, keeping in place our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target. We've a new Target for Oil (Jan 55.45, -0.1%) of 52.61, the daily MACD crossing to negative; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both the Spoo and Oil are working lower. Volatility is mostly moderate, the Spoo being the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%. Philly Fed & Ex/Im Pricing @ 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil @ 06:15 PT.
15 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2565.25, -0.5%) and Copper (3.0465, +0.2%), the BEGOS Markets are higher, led by Silver (17.135, +0.7%). The Spoo is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%, and except for Oil's (55.12, +0.2%) narrow 25% tracing, volatility otherwise is moderate. The Spoo's daily MACD is increasing its negativity in maintaining a Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75, and the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now are notably cascading; those for Oil also have finally begun to drop. PPI/Retail Sales/NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
14 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility runs the spectrum from light-to-robust, the Euro (1.17480, +0.5%) both the firmest component and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 104%; least rangy is Oil (56.45, -0.5%) with a 31% EDTR tracing, and weakest are both Silver (16.935) and Copper (3.1045) at -0.7%. The Spoo's (2577.25, -0.1%) Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75 remains in place as the daily MACD is still negative; at Market Trends, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" in real-time are below the +80% level for the 1st time since 29 Sep; Oil's remain above +80%. PPI due at 05:30 PT.
13 Nov '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Firmest of the BEGOS Markets to start the week is the is the Bond (156^26, +0.4%) which is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%; weakest of the bunch is the Spoo (2574.50, -0.2%), the daily MACD for which continues as negative toward keeping in play our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) in real-time have slipped to +81%, the lowest reading in a month. Silver's (16.885, +0.1%) Target of 17.405 has been nixed, the white metal dropping in Gold's "micro-crash" as depicted in The Gold Update.
10 Nov '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Both the Bond (152^30) and the Spoo (2573.75) are the downside leaders at -0.4%; the Bond also is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 118%; volatility otherwise is light-to-moderate. The Spoo's Market Rhythm Target remains 2536.75 per its negative daily MACD, and in real-time the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinked lower (from +90% to +86%); Silver's (17.020, +0.2%) Target of 17.405 is still valid per its positive 12-hr. MACD. At Market Profiles, the Spoo's high volume apices are at 2584, 2578 & 2573. UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
09 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-robust, the Spoo (2581.00, -0.4%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%; the Spoo's daily MACD continues as negative such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75. Less volatile thus far is Silver (17.105, +0.4%) with a 37% tracing: the white metal's 12-hr. MACD is still positive, the 17.405 Target thus still in place. Oil (59.90, +0.1%) is the narrowest of the bunch with just a 34% tracing: Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have not cracked, (nor in real-time have the Spoo's). Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
08 Nov '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Our 2 Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: the Spoo (cur 2584.50, tar 2536.75) by its negative daily MACD, and Silver (cur 17.020, tar 17.405) by its positive 12-hr. MACD; the white metal is also up the most (+0.5%) of the BEGOS Markets; the Spoo (-0.1%) is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 57%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. Oil's (56.93, "unch") "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are levitating, but the price surge is slowing. Of the 402 Q3 S&P 500 earnings in, only 180 (45%) are better than 2016's Q3.
07 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (17.005, -1.3%) is the weakest of the BEGOS Markets, albeit, due to the white metal's +2.4% rise yesterday, its 12-hr. MACD remains positive, keeping the 17.405 Market Rhythm Target in place; the Spoo's (cur 2588.75, "unch") Target of 2536.75 may get nixed as its daily MACD is just marginally negative. Only Oil (57.30, +0.1%) is higher, but at Market Trends, we're watching for Oil's "Baby Blues" to crack, as they inch a bit lower for the 2nd straight day. Volatility is moderate: rangiest is the Euro (1.15855, -0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%.
06 Nov '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: With the exception of the Euro (1.16195, -0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are higher in starting the week, from the Bond (154^00, +0.1%) and Spoo (2582.75, +0.1%) up through Copper (3.1470, +1.0%); the red metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%, and volatility across the bunch is moderate. Our Market Rhythm Target for Silver (cur 16.900, tar 17.405) is nearing failing as the 12-hr. MACD is now only barely positive; the Spoo's daily MACD is still negative, keeping that 2536.75 Target alive. The EconData calendar is fairly light this week.
03 Nov '17, 04:41 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are muted and volatility is light ahead of a rash of EconData. Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in place as follows: the Spoo (cur 2879.00, +0.1%, tar 2536.75) per its daily MACD, and Silver (cur 17.105, -0.1%, tar 17.405) per its 12-hr. MACD. We're watching, too, for the Bond's (153^14, "unch") 8-hr. Parabolics to flip to Short should 152^28 (pre-08:00 PT) get penetrated, else 152^30 in today's balance, from which the Target would be 1 full point ($1,000/cac) lower. Payrolls and Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) and Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
02 Nov '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver's (17.110, -0.2%) 12-hr. MACD confirmed its positive cross yesterday, giving us a Market Rhythm Target (from the 12:00 PT level at 17.105) of 17.405, ($1,500/cac); the Spoo's (2573.00, "unch") daily MACD remains negative, the 2536.75 Target still in place. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Copper (3.1195, -0.6%), whilst firmest is the Swiss (1.0036, +0.4%); rangiest is the Spoo with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; narrowest is Oil (54.22, -0.1%) with a 46% tracing. Q3 Productivity due at 05:30 PT.
01 Nov '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Nov starts with a bang of volatility as 4 of the BEGOS Markets (the 3 metals plus the Spoo [2583.50, +0.4%]) all have exceeded 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges), strongest being Copper (3.1680, +1.8%) with a 135% tracing; most docile is the Bond (152^07, -0.1%) with just a 33% tracing. Despite the higher Spoo, its daily MACD is still negative, keeping the 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target alive. We're minding Silver's (17.000, +1.7%) 12-hr. MACD as it has provisionally crossed to positive. ADP @ 5:15 PT; ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending @ 07:00 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT.
31 Oct '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Oct's final session finds the BEGOS Markets mostly lower, but only mildly so; only Copper (3.1160, +0.2%) and the Spoo (2571.75, +0.1%) are up a tad; volatility again is basically light with most EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings less than 50%, save for Copper's at 76% and the Swiss' (1.0043, -0.4%) at 69%; the Swiss is also the weakest of the bunch. The Spoo's daily MACD continues to be negative such as to keep our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75. Q3 Employment Cost Index: 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI: 06:45 PT; Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT; FOMC Meeting begins.
30 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2572.25, -0.2%) daily MACD remains negative, keeping our 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target in place. The BEGOS Markets begin the week mixed and volatility is mostly light: as noted in The Gold Update, typically not much market movement is seen ahead of an FOMC Statement (Wed), albeit tomorrow is month-end. Copper (3.1095) and the Euro (1.16695) are the firmest of the bunch, both +0.2%; the Euro is the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%. Weakest is Silver (16.765, -0.6%). Personal Income/Spending due at 05:30 PT.
27 Oct '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Copper (3.1140, -2.0%) is the session's big loser, as well as again the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 122%; the balance of the bunch are mostly lower and volatility is moderate. The Spoo's (2567.75, +0.2%) daily MACD continues its negative track, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75; this present 2568 level shows as a dominant apex on the Market Profile, whilst at Market Values, price looks some 50 points "high". The first peek at Q3 GDP growth is expected to have slowed from 3.1% in Q2 to 2.4%: 'tis due @ 05:30 PT.
26 Oct '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Spoo (2561.25, +0.1%), has furthered its negativity, the 2536.75 Market Rhythm Target in place; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), whilst above +80%, have slipped to +82%: their lowest reading in the past 21 trading days is +78%. The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed either way and volatility is moderate: the Bond (151^12, 0.2%) is firmest and Copper (3.1735, -0.4%) is weakest as well as the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leader at 60%. EuroCurrencies ought be in play. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
25 Oct '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2565.50, "unch") daily MACD confirmed a negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2536.75, ($1,400/cac from this session's open of 2564.75); the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have started a mild downside tilt, albeit even in real-time they remain above the +80% level (+88%). The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, led by Copper (3.1765, -0.7%), which also leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 107%, and the"Baby Blues" look poised to fall. Volatility otherwise is moderate. Durable Orders: 05:30 PT; New Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
24 Oct '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Similar to this time last Thu (19 Oct), the Spoo's (2565.75, +0.1%) daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain nonetheless pasted to the ceiling almost always above +80% these past 5 weeks in still unusually narrow trading, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 11 points vs. 18 a year ago. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate, save for leading Copper (3.2220, +1.2%), its EDTR tracing at 104%. Weakest is the Bond (151^28, -0.4%); least rangy of the bunch is the Euro (1.18025) with a 39% EDTR tracing.
23 Oct '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: As anticipated per The Gold Update, price (1277.3, -0.4%) penetrated the weekly parabolic level of 1277.6, in turn putting that trend Short: the support key now is not to fall beneath "The Box" (1280-1240); the ascent of Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) is running out of puff right on the 0% axis line, rather than continuing a trip to the +80% level, which has been more of their oscillative nature for at least a year. Volatility is moderate to start the week for the BEGOS Markets which are somewhat lower, save for Copper (3.1720), Oil (52.13) and the Spoo (2576.00) all +0.1%.
20 Oct '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The provisional cross of the Spoo's (2566.50, +0.2%) daily MACD failed to confirm as yesterday's dip buyers brought price all the way back from one of the deeper overnight abysses year-to-date. Today, save also for session-leading Copper (3.1955, +0.7%), the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower, the weakest being Oil (51.02, -1.1%). Rangiest is the Swiss (1.0221, -0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 151%, and volatility is fairly robust across the board. With 56 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 earnings, just 46% are better y-o-y. Existing Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
19 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2445.00, -0.6%) hit an air pocket 'round midnight PT, exacerbated by Spain's "suspending Catalonia's austerity"; the Spoo leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 198%, and the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, which if confirmed by session's end would yield a Market Rhythm Target 28 points below the next session's open. Volatility is moderate-to-robust across the balance of the BEGOS Markets, which are mixed: weakest is Oil (51.56, -1.3%) and firmest is the Swiss ( 1.0281, +0.5%). Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
18 Oct '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are working lower, save for Oil (52.30) and the Spoo (2560.75), both +0.2%; weakest are the Bond (153^13) and all 3 of the metals, -0.4%; the Bond is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; volatility is mostly moderate; as well at the Market Ranges page, note how narrow the EDTR has become for the Spoo, just 10 points: this date a year ago 'twas 20; 'tis a eerily narrow range we're having for an October, normally one of the year's more volatile months. Housing Starts & Building Permits @ 05:30 PT.
17 Oct '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate. The precious metals lead the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 73% for both Silver (17.120, -0.8%) and Gold (1290.6, -0.5%). Firmest is Oil (Dec 52.40, +0.4%), and weakest following yesterday's rocket-shot is Copper (3.2090, -1.0%). We've gone on ad nausea in The Gold Update over the wildly high valuation of the S&P (2557.64), our "live" p/e at a record 45.2x: early as 'tis, of the 11 firms that have reported Q3 earnings, just 5 are up y-o-y: Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT. NAHB: 07:00 PT.
16 Oct '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for Oil (52.18, +1.5%) has provisionally crossed to positive, which upon confirmation shall formally nix our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (or Dec 47.56); the session's real rocket-shot is Copper (3.2190, +2.7%), far and away the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing leader at 255%; the other 6 BEGOS Markets are docile, all presently changed by less than 0.2% either way with light-to-moderate volatility. The Gold Update notes the support areas for the PMs having worked, notable for Gold (1307.8, +0.1%) "The Box" (1280-1240). NY Empire comes due at 05:30 PT.
13 Oct '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil (51.59, +1.7%) is again the BEGOS Markets upside leader as well as the rangiest of the components with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 87%; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are sitting just above the 0% axis, and whilst the daily MACD remains negative, such stance may be short-lived as a positive crossing would nix our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (or Dec 47.56 as volume begins rolling into that cac). Otherwise, the balance of the bunch are mildly mixed and volatility is moderate. CPI/Retail Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment/BusInvs: 07:00 PT.
12 Oct '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the FOMC Minutes having passed and a bevy of week-ending EconData on the table. The largest change at present is by Oil (50.51, -1.0%), for which in real-time the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as anticipated are poised to go sub-0%, along with the daily MACD remaining negative, the Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 (Dec 47.56) in place. Firmest are all 3 metals, led by Copper (3.1155, +0.7%), the red metal also being the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 70%. Volatility again is moderate. PPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
11 Oct '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Oil (51.28, +0.7%) is the BEGOS Markets upside leader, yet the daily MACD is still negative, the 47.26 Market Rhythm Target being maintained; however, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) whilst lower have slowed their rate of descent. Similar to yesterday, most of the components are higher, the rangiest again being the Euro (1.18620, +0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 66%; volatility is moderate. The "Baby Blues" continue their curling higher for the PMs as well as for the EuroCurrencies. FOMC Minutes from the 19-20 Sep meeting come due at 11:00 PT.
10 Oct '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (152^03, -0.1%), the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently higher, led by Oil (50.22, +1.3%), the daily MACD for which remains negative, keeping our Market Rhythm Target in place for 47.26; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their descent, looking to cross sub-0% going into tomorrow. The same study for the PMs is curling higher for both Gold (1293.2, +0.5%) and Silver (17.185, +1.1%), the latter also 2nd in the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 80%; volatility is moderate. Still, the Spoo (2546.75, +0.1%) remains firm.
09 Oct '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: Oil (49.37, +0.2%) remains on track for our Market Rhythm Target of 47.26 as the daily MACD stays negative; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering their fall. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher and volatility is light-to-moderate; the PMs are the upside leaders with Silver (16.960, +0.7%), the white metal also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 89%, and Gold (1285.4, +0.5%); The Gold Update describes how the yellow metal benefits in major stock market crashes. No EconBaro metrics until Thu. Q3 Earnings Season commences.
06 Oct '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: With the exception of Oil (50.22, -1.0%), the BEGOS Markets are barely changed and volatility is very light ahead of the hurricane-effected jobs report. Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue their fall and the daily MACD is increasingly negative, the Market Rhythm Target remaining in place at 47.26. The Spoo (2549.25, "unch") is beyond extremely overbought by our triumvirate of textbook measures, (BollBands, Stochs, RSI): the 43.5x "live" p/e of the S&P (2552.07) is at the high from which the "dot.com" crash occurred. Payroll data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
05 Oct '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Oil's (50.06, +0.3%) daily MACD furthers its negative cross, maintaining our new Market Rhythm Target of 47.26, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) further falling in favour of lower prices; we're wary of the lower 49s showing some support for price, yet 'twould then appear to have room to accelerate lower sub-48.50. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility at best moderate, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being led by upside leader Copper (2.9790, +0.8%) at 64%; weakest of the bunch is the Swiss (1.0279, -0.3%). Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
04 Oct '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for Oil (50.26, +0.2%) confirmed its negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target (as measured from the session's open of 50.16) of 47.26; Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are continuing to descend. The BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, save for Copper (2.9555) and the Spoo (2531.25), both -0.1%; volatility is again light-to-moderate, with Silver (16.830, +1.1%) the firmest component and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 72%; the Spoo sports the narrowest tracing at just 29%. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
03 Oct '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Oil's (50.48, -0.2%) daily MACD provisionally is crossing to negative: should this confirm, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 2.90 points ($2,900/cac) lower; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for Oil already have crested and are falling. The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed and volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (152^09, -0.2%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Copper (2.9575, +0.4%) is the firmest of the bunch: the red metal's 21-day linreg trend and "Baby Blues" as they begin their ascent appear the mirror opposite of those for Oil.
02 Oct '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets kick off Q4 mostly to the downside, save for Copper (2.9575, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2519.50, +0.1%); weakest and rangiest is Oil (50.72, -1.8%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 99%; volatility is moderate across the board. The Spoo's daily MACD has pulled higher away from a negative cross, whilst the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have steadied following a week of mild decline. The Gold Update sites price (1276.6, -0.5%) being in an area of support, but that Octobers often are down months. ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
29 Sep '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The last day of Q3 sees mostly light volatility for the BEGOS Markets which are mildly mixed, Copper (2.9675, -0.4%) being the most changed at present. Again, the S&P (2510.06) looks to close out its narrowest September for which we've data (since 1970); the Spoo's EDTR (see Market Ranges) is a mere 12 points: a year ago today 'twas 23 points; tight as 'tis, only the Spoo (2506.50, +0.1%) along with Oil (51.56, "unch") are in 21-day linreg uptrends, the other 6 of the bunch being in downtrends. Personal Income/Spending & PCE Prices: 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI: 07:00 PT.
28 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2502.75, "unch") "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are slipping for the 4th consecutive day without price actually letting go to the downside; accordingly, the daily MACD has yet to negatively cross; at Market Ranges, the Spoo of late shows as the least rangy of the BEGOS Markets towards recording its narrowest September since at least 1970. This session's volatility for the bunch is moderate-to-robust, the EDTR tracings lead by the Bond (152^12, -0.4%) at 104% and Oil, the firmest component, (52.68, +1.2%) at 96%. Final revision to Q2 GDP: 05:30 PT.
27 Sep '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (153^18, -0.7%) is both the weakest of the BEGOS Markets and the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 147%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise moderate, the firmest component being Copper (2.9465, +0.9%). The daily MACD for the Spoo (2499.50, +0.2%) has yet to make the anticipated negative cross: a glance also at our Market Profiles page shows how comparatively tight is the Spoo's range of late: again, the S&P (2496.84) is on pace for its narrowest September in at least 47 years. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Sep '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Mildly mixed are the BEGOS Markets and volatility is moderate; Gold (1307.0, -0.5%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 89%, followed by Silver (17.075, -0.8%) at 84%. The Spoo's (2495.75, -0.1%) daily MACD appears on track to cross negatively before the week is out: as listed on our Market Rhythms page, confirmation of said cross would give us a Target of 28 points ($1,400/cac) lower; also the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are breaking down after a full week of having crawled across the ceiling. Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales: 07:00 PT.
25 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets begin the week mildly lower, save for Oil (50.94, +0.6%) and the Bond ( 154^21, +0.2%); volatility is moderate. The Gold Update points to the skirmish of Gold (1297.5, -0.2%) and Silver (16.975, -0.4%) having reaching their "price-bunching" support areas respectively 'round 1300 and 17.00 vs. the declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends); it also cites with a variety of bullet points the prudence for being out of the stock market, including this being the narrowest September trading range for the S&P (2502) in at least 47 years (going as far back as 1970).
22 Sep '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: The PMs show firming 'round their "price-bunching" support areas of 1300 for Gold (1298.8, +0.3%) and 17.00 for Silver (17.035, +0.2%); for both metals, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have dropped to their respective 0% axes, discreetly suggestive that the selling these past 2 weeks is but half over: thus 'tis a battle between support holding and momentum driving prices lower. Volatility is mostly moderate across the BEGOS Markets which are mixed with no one component presently changed either way by more than 0.5%, save for Oil (50.43, -0.6%).
21 Sep '17, 04:34 Pacific Time: In a reverse from this time yesterday, post-Fed all 8 BEGOS Markets presently are lower. The PMs have arrived at the "price-bunching" support areas of 1300 for Gold (1295.5, -0.7%) and 17.00 for Silver (16.975, -1.4%); note at Market Trends that the "Baby Blues" for both PMs continue to fall such that we expect some hem 'n haw prior to prices then springing back up from here. Volatility is light-to-moderate, Silver being the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%, and the Bond (153^23, -0.1%) the least so at 28%. Philly Fed comes due at 05:30 PT.
20 Sep '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets presently are higher, ranging from both the Euro (1.20620, +0.1%) and the Spoo (2505.50, +0.1%) to Oil (50.52, +0.5%); volatility is light. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are furthering their descent for both Gold (1318.0, +0.3%) and Silver (17.395, +0.2%); the daily Price Oscillators for these two PMs are nearing crosses to negative; at Market Values, the yellow metal has unwound most of its "high" excess above the smooth valuation line, and appears "low" at Market Magnets. Existing Homes @ 07:00 PT; FOMC @ 11:00 PT; Yellen @ 11:30 PT.
19 Sep '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed with volatility light-to-moderate. Firmest is Oil (50.76, +0.8%) and weakest is Silver (17.215, -0.2%). The Euro (1.20485, +0.3%) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 64%, with Gold (1311.7, +0.1%) the most docile at just a 25% tracing. At Market Trends, the PMs' "Baby Blues" are accelerating their descents with prices approaching the "bunching" areas of 1300 for Gold and 17.00 for Silver. Housing Starts & Building Permits, Ex/Im Pricing and Q2 Current Account data all come due at 05:30 PT.
18 Sep '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: A quiet and mixed start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, volatility running light-to-moderate; only one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.4%, that being Copper (2.9725, +0.8%); weakest are both Oil (49.63, -0.4%) and Gold (1318.5, -0.4%); the latter, (as re-emphasized in The Gold Update), looks to benefit from "price-bunching" support 'round the 1300 level, from which the ascent to Base Camp 1377 can commence; similarly for Silver (17.570, -0.3%), we're looking to the 17.00 area for "price-bunching" support. NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
15 Sep '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: One may consider the BEGOS Markets as relatively docile given today's geo-political issues of another NorK missile fired over Hokkaido and a device detonation on London's Underground at Parsons Green: volatility is moderate, the rangiest of the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings being 78% for Gold (1328.0), which is actually -0.4%. Weakest of the bunch is Silver (17.765, -0.5%); firmest are Oil (49.93) and the Swiss (1.0416), both +0.4%. Cac volume on the EuroCurrencies is rolling into Dec. Retail Sales @ 05:30 PT; IndPrd/CapUtl @ 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
14 Sep '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time finally have cracked for both Gold (1327.5, "unch") and Silver (17.775, -0.3%): when this occurred some 3 weeks back, the PMs nonetheless worked higher still, firm evidence that their getting a bid was continuing; expectant now of at least a bit more downside, we again cite "price-clustering" support 'round 1300 for the yellow metal and 17.00 for the white metal. On balance, the BEGOS Markets are lower, led by yet again by Copper (2.9385, -1.5%); up the most is Oil (49.79, +1.0%). Volatility is light-to-moderate. CPI due @ 05:30 PT.
13 Sep '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9890, -1.7%) is again the both weakest of the BEGOS Markets and the rangiest as well with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 106%; volatility for the other components (most of which are mildly higher) is light-to-moderate; only the Spoo (2490.25, -0.2%) joins Copper in the red. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both Gold (1337.9, +0.1%) and Silver (17.990, +0.1%) remain high despite the PMs' prices pullback this week; at Market Values, Gold remains 50 points high above its valuation line. PPI: 05:30 PT; Treasury Budget due @ 11:00 PT.
12 Sep '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Save for Oil (48.21, +0.2%) and the Spoo (2490.00, +0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are working lower, led by Copper (3.0345, -1.2%); the red metal is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 85%; volatility for the balance of the bunch also is moderate. Gold (1328.0, -0.3%) has largely given up its NorK nuke test gains, the yellow metal typically returning to pre-geo-political event levels: since Friday's highs, Gold has given back 2.6% and Silver (17.840, -0.1%) similarly 2.8%. We expect the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends") for the PMs are about to break down.
11 Sep '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Those BEGOS Markets which recently had gap openings on NorK news have so again done, but this time in opposite directions, the Spoo (2472.75, +0.5%) getting the bid whilst Gold (1340.8, -0.8%) and the Bond (156^21, -0.5%) bear the gapping brunt along with the EuroCurrencies. Volatility is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update supports the yellow metal having risen of late due to natural disasters, the passing of which also lends to these lower levels; our report also notes "price-bunching" support for Gold 'round 1300, and the same for Silver (17.865, -0.9%) 'round 17.00.
08 Sep '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: We've a view to the Spoo (2455.75, -0.4%) breaking down to at least the 2450 level today, the usual safe havens getting a bid in working into a weekend of uncertainty on the hurricane and geo-political fronts. Copper (3.0965, -1.7%) is the BEGOS Markets big loser, leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings as well at 161%. The Swiss (1.0580, +0.5%) and PMs are presently the winners, Silver (18.270) and Gold (1359.3) both +0.4%; the latter is now within 20 points of "Base Camp 1377" which was 2016's high trade. Wholesale Inventories: 07:00 PT; Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
07 Sep '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Swiss (1.0505, +0.4%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 109%; otherwise, volatility is moderate; the Euro (1.19840, +0.5%) is the firmest component, whilst weakest is Copper (3.1330, -0.8%): this is the 2nd straight session for the red metal's making a "lower high" such that we're watching the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) -- 93% in real-time -- to work lower; similarly we're sensing same to occur for both Gold (1343.8, +0.4%) and Silver (17.965, +0.1%). ECB: 04:45; Draghi, plus Q2(Rev) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: 05:30 PT.
06 Sep '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are lightly-mixed with volatility running light-to-moderate; firmest is Oil (48.91, +0.6%) whilst weakest are both Gold (1343.2) and the Bond (157^01), both -0.1%; leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is Copper (3.1380, 0.4%) at 60%, with both the Spoo (2460.00, "unch" ) and Swiss (1.0476 "unch" least rangy with 34% tracings. Gold is in the price thicket formed sub-"Base Camp 1377"; mind the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for them again to crack from the current 82% level. Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; Fed Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
05 Sep '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Sun-Tue session continues, BEGOS Markets volatility mostly moderate, save for Copper (3.1695, +1.4%) which has widened its leading EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing to 131%; the red metal is also up the most of the components, all of which are higher except for the Spoo (2467.50, -0.3%). Gold (1334.9, -0.4%) is 10 points off its session high of 1345.5, the NorK news now fairly digested; as noted herein (01 Sep) as well as in The Gold Update, the yellow metal is "high" vis-à-vis our Market Values page, now in real-time by some 61 points. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
04 Sep '17, 04:40 Pacific Time: We've up gap openings in this Sun-Tue session for most of the BEGOS Markets, save notably for the Spoo (2466.25, -0.3%) after the NorK nuclear device test. Firmest is Gold (1340.4, +0.8%), settling Fri at 1329.9, opening Sun at 1339.7, (high 1345.5); also +0.8% is Copper (3.1460), the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 127%; narrowest is Oil (47.35, "unch") with a 29% tracing. As noted in The Gold Update, the yellow metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) turning back higher rather than falling has been supportive of price's near-term strength.
01 Sep '17, 04:42 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly light and the components little changed ahead of a raft of data for the EconBaro and a StateSide get-away for its Labor Day Weekend, (GLOBEX Sun 15:00 PT opening per usual, Mon halt from 10:00-15:00 PT). The Euro's (1.19260) negative MACD cross did not confirm. Gold's (1324.0) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have moved back above +80% and Silver's (17.605) ratchet higher as well; again per Market Values, Gold appears some 50 points "high". Payroll data: 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Aug '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.18605) daily MACD is provisionally crossing negative; confirmation by day's end would give us a Market Rhythm Target of .00880 ($1,100/cac) points lower from the next session opening price. 5 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Copper (3.1155, +0.9%), Oil (46.17, +0.4%) and the Spoo (2463.00, +0.3%); Copper is also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%, and volatility across the board is moderate. Personal Inc/Spd & PCE due at 05:30 PT; Chicago PMI due at 06:45 PT; Pending Homes due at 07:00 PT.
30 Aug '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility is light-to-moderate. Cac volume has moved into Dec for both Copper (3.0985) & Silver (17.510), and looks to so do for the Bond (Sep 157^04, Dec 155^28) come tomorrow: that should pull the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) from running across their ceiling as they've been doing for better than a week. At Market Values, Gold (1316.0) is nearly 50 points above its smooth valuation line, that level having seen price peaks from a year ago-to-date, albeit Gold is firmer these days. ADP data: 05:15 PT; Q2 GDP (2nd Est): 05:30 PT.
29 Aug '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Response to the NorK missile firing over Japan sufficiently gapped the BEGOS Markets at the 15:00 PT opening such as to see some full day ranges traced in a matter of minutes. 6 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are up, presently led by the Swiss (1.0605, +1.2%); weakest is the Spoo (2429.50, -0.6%). The EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of the EuroCurrencies and Bond (157^17) all well exceed 100%. Markets looking as if they'd over-reacted and are now materially retracing their initial legs include the Spoo, the Bond, and Gold (1325.4). Consumer Confidence due @ 07:00 PT.
28 Aug '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: A quiet start to the week for equities, the Spoo (2441.75) essentially "unch" ahead of 20 incoming EconBaro metrics from Tue through Fri. Strongest is Copper (3.0730, +1.1%) and weakest is Oil (47.46, -0.8%), the latter also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate as well, save for the Bond (156^16, -0.1%) with only a 25% EDTR tracing. The Gold Update again points out the high level of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), how they appear " hanging in air", and now in real-time are turning back up.
25 Aug '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Euro (1.18320, +0.2%) has provisionally whipped back above 50 (scale 0-100), toward nixing our 1.15885 Market Rhythm Target, barring discerned negativity from Jackson Hole. Ahead of doings there, the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher; volatility is light-to-moderate. Firmest are both Silver (17.020, +0.4%) and Copper (3.0490, +0.4%); weakest is the Bond (156^02, "unch"); rangiest is the Euro with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 66%; least is Gold's (1292.4, +0.1%) 28%. Durables: 05:30 PT, Yellen: 07:00 PT; Draghi: 12:00 PT.
24 Aug '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.18060, -0.1%) Market Rhythm Target of 1.15885 may get quickly nixed: the daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0), but just barely, in real-time hooking up to 49.45. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, led on the downside by Silver (16.890, -1.1%), which is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader at 84%; presently up the most is Copper (2.9980, +0.5%); volatility is light-to-moderate, the least rangy being Oil (48.16, -0.4%), its EDTR tracing just 29%. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) again are marginally lower. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
23 Aug '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: We've a Market Rhythm Target for the Euro (1.80000, +0.2%) of 1.15885, the daily Moneyflow having confirmed as passing sub-50 (scale 100-0). In a reversal from this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, save again for the Spoo (2447.50, -0.3%) and Copper (2.9850, -0.2%): the Spoo's noted Market Magnet gap closed in full given yesterday's robust up session. Firmest are Silver (17.055, +0.4%) and Gold (1294.5, +0.3%): yet, the PMs' "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are again marginally weaker in real-time. Volatility is moderate. New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
22 Aug '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.17670, -0.5%) daily Moneyflow provisionally is sub-50 (scale 100-0): if confirmed by day's end, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.01920 ($2,400/cac) lower from the next session's opening level; the Euro's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are poised to pass sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, save for Copper (2.9980, +0.6%) and the Spoo (2432.00, +0.1%); the price for the latter had been some 30 points below its Market Magnet, (30 points having showing as an extreme deviation in either direction per the 3-month chart). Volatility is moderate.
21 Aug '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Strongest of the BEGOS Markets is Copper (2.9670, +0.1%), the red metal also with the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 102%; volatility is otherwise moderate, the narrowest EDTR tracing being 36% for Oil (49.79, -0.2%), which along with the Swiss (1.0362, -0.2%) are the weakest of the bunch. Gold (1293.3, +0.2%) remains firm, albeit we're expecting some pullback this week: The Gold Update refers to the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) as "hanging in the air", with support at 1280. Q2 Earnings Season is done: only 48% of S&P 500 cos. improved y-o-y.
18 Aug '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Silver (17.185, +1.0%) is the BEGOS Markets volatility leader with a 121% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); the white metal leads the bunch on the upside along with Copper (2.9405, +1.0%); weakest of the group is the Bond (155^28, "unch"). Cac volume for Oil (Sep 47.14) is moving into Oct (47.30). Gold has reached our Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2: up to the lower quartile of the 1300s appears structurally resistive in looking back to last Sep; still a big goal for Gold is to eventually get above "Base Camp 1377" for then a far higher run. UofM Sentiment @ 07:00 PT.
17 Aug '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: The Euro (1.17120, -0.6%) is rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 110%; otherwise volatility is moderate. Wed's big winner, Copper (2.9445, -0.7%) is presently the big loser; we've only Gold (1290.8, +0.2%) in the black, the yellow metal having made up substantially all of its Mon/Tue loss; Gold's Market Rhythm Target per the positive daily Price Oscillator remains 1301.2, and the once-falling "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are stable in real-time. Philly Fed @ 05:30 PT followed by IndPrd/CapUtl @ 06:15 PT & Leading Indicators @ 07:00 PT.
16 Aug '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Copper (2.9320, +1.8%) is the strong BEGOS Markets leader, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 131%; changes for the balance of the bunch presently are docile either way, with volatility running light-to-moderate. Gold's (1276.4) and Silver's (16.675) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are dropping more noticeably now, both markets near their the mid-point of their 10-day Market Profile supporters respectively at 1274 and 16.50. The Dollar (93.940) over the past 2 days is at its best level in 3 weeks. Housing Starts/Permits @ 05:30 PT; FOMC Minutes (25-26 Jul) @ 11:00 PT.
15 Aug '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Again the PMs are the BEGOS Markets weak links with Silver (16.860, -1.2%) and Gold (1280.0, -0.6%); still, the latter's daily Price Oscillator remains positive, thus the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 stays in place; versus that, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are just barely starting to drop; those for the session's present leading Spoo (2470.00, +0.2%) have moved further sub-0%. Volatility is moderate, led by Gold's 87% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Retail Sales, Ex/Im Pricing and NY Empire @ 05:30 PT; BusInvs and NAHB Housing @ 07:00 PT.
14 Aug '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are reversing a portion of their directional moves of last week, all of them presently lower, save for the Spoo (2454.00, +0.5%), its "Baby Blues" nonetheless just crossing negatively in real-time. The PMs are the weakest components, Silver (16.940, -1.0%) and Gold (1285.0, -0.8%); The Gold Update notes that geo-political price moves oft are short-lived; still, our Market Rhythm Target for Gold remains 1301.2 as the daily Price Oscillator is still positive, further supported by the weekly Parabolics having flipped to Long. Volatility is firmly moderate across the board.
11 Aug '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo (2434.50) of 2442.75 was met in yesterday's downdraft, the range of which was better than triple the EDTR (see Market Ranges) coming into that day, ('tis now up to 15 from 12); still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have only just reached the 0% level, (i.e. the mid-point of their downside potential). Gold's (1293.1) Target remains 1301.2, albeit getting up through the "Whiny 1290s" is a proven chore. The BEGOS Markets presently are lightly changed either way and volatility is moderate. CPI due @ 05:30 PT.
10 Aug '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2462.00, -0.5%) is nearing its low from yesterday (2459.00) and is sporting the widest of the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 102%; 'tis also the weakest component and its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are increasing their downside pace; our Market Rhythm Target for the Spoo is still 2442.75 per the negative daily MACD. However, Oil's (49.90) Target of 47.25 is nixed as the 8-hr. Parabolics swing to Long. Again Silver (17.075, +0.9%) is leading to the upside, back in the 17s. Volatility for the balance of the bunch is moderate. PPI due @ 05:30 PT.
09 Aug '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: One might consider yesterday's sharp reversal in the Spoo (2464.50, -0.3%) the "blow-off top", rising price having had defied the declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) and negative daily MACD, from which our Market Rhythm Target remains 2442.75. The other two Targets are still in play for Gold (cur 1274.0, tar 1301.2) and Oil (cur 49.43, tar 47.25). The BEGOS Markets upside leader is Silver (16.625, +1.2%); weakest is the Spoo; rangiest is the Swiss (1.0394, +1.0%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 167%. Q2 Productivity: 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
08 Aug '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets presently are mildly higher, volatility again running light-to-moderate. At our regularly-referred-to Market Ranges page, note how both Gold (1270.0) and the Spoo (2475.50) are at their narrowest EDTRs in at least a year; the Market Rhythm Target for the former is still 1301.2, and for the latter is still 2442.75; that too for Oil (49.52) remains at 47.25. At our Market Trends page, price for the Spoo continues to defy its falling "Baby Blues", whilst those for all eight BEGOS components are either kinking down or accelerating their pace to the downside.
07 Aug '17, 04:34 Pacific Time: Most changed amongst the essentially "unch" BEGOS Markets is Oil (49.09, -0.9%), our Market Rhythm Target of 47.25 being maintained per the Short 8-hr. Parabolics. Rangiest is Copper (2.8880, "unch") with a 107% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing from a spike up and down in the 18:00 PT hour; volatility for the balance of the bunch is light-to-moderate. The Gold Update notes how the S&P (2476.83) has defied negative technical signals for some 2 years, however we'll roll with the 2442.75 Target for the Spoo (2473.75) by the falling daily MACD. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
04 Aug '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2474.25) confirmed a negative cross of its daily MACD toward giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2442.75: we view this with respect to the payrolls data still due at 05:30 PT, (along with the Trade Deficit), as an material up day can reverse this signal; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) nonetheless continue to curl lower. Targets as well remain for Gold (cur 1274.9, tar 1301.2) and Oil (cur 48.82, tar 47.25). Well into Q2 Earnings Season, only 51% of the 387 S&P 500 companies so far have bettered their bottom lines from a year ago: Our "live p/e" = 41.1x.
03 Aug '17, 04:43 Pacific Time: Our two Market Rhythm Targets remain in play: Gold (cur 1271.1, tar 1301.2) per the positive daily Price Oscillator and Oil (cur 49.55, tar 47.25) per the Short-disposed 8-hr. Parabolics. The Spoo's (1271.25) daily MACD provisionally has crossed to negative; per the present Market Rhythms page listing, confirmation would give us a target of 28 points lower ($1,400/cac) from the next session's opening level; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" are showing further evidence of rolling over. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed; volatility is moderate. Factory Orders & ISM (Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
02 Aug '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. As noted, we're watching the Spoo (2472.50, "unch") for a negative crossing of its daily MACD; the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time are again mildly lower (from 84% to 83%); those for both the Euro (1.18565, +0.2%) and Gold (1273.0, -0.1%) are looking stretched to the upside, the latter's daily Price Oscillator nonetheless positive, keeping the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 in place. Oil's (49.04, +0.5%) 8-hr. Parabolics have flipped to Short giving us a Target of 47.25. ADP data due @ 05:15 PT.
01 Aug '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: With its daily MACD finally confirmed as negative, the Bond's (153^00) Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 is nixed. That for Gold (cur 1272.3, tar 1301.2) remains in place given the positive daily Price Oscillator. In real-time, the Spoo's (2472.25, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are kinking lower (live level is 84% vs. yesterday's 85%) and the daily MACD is nearing a negative cross. Silver (16.720, -0.6%) is weakest of the BEGOS Markets, most of which are lower. Volatility is moderate. Personal Inc/Spd/PCE: 05:30 PT; Construction Spending & ISM(Mfg): 07:00 PT.
31 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Gold's (1274.0) daily Price Oscillator moves higher, the Market Rhythm Target of 1301.2 still in place; The Gold Update points to having to deal with the top of the 1240-1280 box, followed by "The Whiny 1290s". The Bond's (153^06) Target of 155^08 is mathematically still in play, the daily MACD still not having confirmed the negative cross. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate; mirrored change extremes presently are Oil (49.48, -0.6%) and Copper (2.8960, +0.6%), the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 97%. Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
28 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Barring Q2 GDP (05:30 PT) data being sufficiently weak so as to drive the Bond (152^08) higher, the Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 looks to be nixed by day's end, the daily MACD provisionally now negative. Gold's (Dec 1264.4) cac volume now exceeds that for Aug (1257.7); given the still positive daily Price Oscillator, our Target remains 1301.2. The Spoo's (2465.50) daily MACD is en route to crossing negatively next week. The BEGOS Markets again are mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, save like yesterday for the Swiss (1.0339) with a 106% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing.
27 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Bond (153^02) has yet to go negative, thus not yet nixed is the 155^08 Market Rhythm Target; that for Gold (Aug cur 1263.1, tar Dec 1301.2) is supported by the positive daily Price Oscillator; the same study for Silver (16.745) has turned positive for a Target (from 16.640) of 17.040. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and moderately volatile, save for the Swiss (1.0457, -0.9%) which has traced 145% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Euro's (1.17410, -0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to break down. Durable Orders due at 05:30 PT.
26 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The Bond's (152^26) daily MACD is trending toward negativity, likely en route to nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 155^08; that for Gold (Aug cur 1246.0, tar Dec 1301.2) is still in play per the daily Price Oscillator. Copper (2.8530, +0.2%) is again volatile, its EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 182%; for the balance of the bunch volatility is moderate; no one BEGOS Market is up by much, with both Silver (16.375) and Oil (48.27) the weak links -0.6%. The PM's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing above their 0% axes. New Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Statement: 11:00 PT.
25 Jul '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Gold (Aug 1250.5, Dec 1256.8) confirmed as positive; because cac volume will be moving into Dec this week, the Market Rhythm Target basis Dec is 1301.2 (40-point goal from this session's Aug opening of 1255.2 + 6 points of cac premium). The Bond (153^25) is weakening, but with the daily MACD still positive, the 155^08 target is still in play. Copper (2.8065, +2.3%) is the BEGOS Markets big mover with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 232%; weakest is Silver (16.305, -1.0%). Volatility otherwise is moderate. Consumer Confidence: 07:00 PT.
24 Jul '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Gold's (1256.9) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to positive; if confirmed, a Market Rhythm Target can be set for some 40 points higher (from the next session's opening), which has been achieved in 7 of the last 10 crossings (either higher or lower) per the Market Rhythms page. The Bond's (154^18) target of 155^08 remains in place as the daily MACD is still positive. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed, save for Oil (46.08, +1.1%), which is also the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings leader. Volatility is essentially moderate. Existing Homes come due at 07:00 PT.
21 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The Bond (154^22) has thus far been working toward the Market Rhythm Target of 155^08 per the positive crossover on the daily MACD, supported too by the rising "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). The Euro's (1.16845) daily Moneyflow did not confirm going sub-50, so no signal there, the Baby Blues also still refusing to lose. Most of the BEGOS Markets are higher, save for Oil (46.45, -1.0%) and the Spoo (2471.00, -0.1%). Up the most is Copper (2.7420, +1.0%), which is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 105%; otherwise, volatility is moderate.
20 Jul '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The daily MACD for the Bond (153^29) confirmed turning positive, giving us a Market Rhythm Target (from the session's opening level of 153^27) of 155^08. We're watching the Euro's (1.15430) daily Moneyflow to confirm crossing sub-50; as noted (17 Jul), the Euro's "Baby Blues" look due to begin falling; those for the Swiss (1.0468) cracked 2 weeks back. The BEGOS Markets are mixed, with Silver (16.147, -0.7%) the weakest, whilst the firmest is Oil (47.49, +0.4%); volatility is running light-to-moderate. ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Philly Fed: 05:30; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
19 Jul '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The Bond's (153^22) daily MACD is provisionally crossing to positive: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 1^13 points ($1,400/cac) higher from the next session's opening; the Bond's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have started curling up from below their -80% level, also suggestive of a run into the 155 handle. The same study for the PMs has room to run higher for both Gold (1238.9) and Silver (16.175). The BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, save for Oil (46.75, +0.7%); volatility is light-to-moderate. Housing Starts/Building Permits come due at 05:30 PT.
18 Jul '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: We're nixing our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (Cur 1.0519, tar 1.0317) as the daily Parabolics swiftly reverse from Short to Long; the Swiss is +0.9% and is the rangiest of the BEGOS Markets with a 158% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Only stronger is Oil (Aug 46.48, +1.0%), the cac volume for which is moving into Sep (46.70). Gold's (1236.6) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their climbout: we're looking for price to get into the clustering area that we saw some 3 weeks back 'round 1250. Ex/Im pricing due at 05:30 PT; NAHB Housing due at 07:00 PT.
17 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Gold's (1231.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) finally are beginning their climb out: per the current Gold Update, we expect to see 1250 on this run; that noted, we are keeping the Swiss (1.0439) Market Rhythm Target of 1.0317 given the Short stance of the daily Parabolics; the Swiss' Baby Blues are declining and those for the Euro (1.15030) look poised to crack. The mixed BEGOS Markets are showing light-to-moderate volatility, Copper (2.7155, +0.8%) being the exception with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 115%. NY Empire Index comes due at 05:30 PT.
14 Jul '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Most of the BEGOS Markets are presently up, save for the Spoo (2444.25, -0.1%) and the Swiss (1.0358, -0.3%); the latter's Market Rhythm Target remains in play for 1.0317. Volatility is moderate. Gold (1220.8) has been firming throughout the week, but the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have barely budged up, (-83% in real-time); at Market Values, Gold is 31 points below its smooth valuation line. Our Earnings Season page is now updating as in roll Q2 results. Retail Sales and CPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; BusInvs and UofM: 07:00 PT. Vive la France!
13 Jul '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.14155, -0.3%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 106%; Oil (45.11) is the weak link, -0.8%, the balance of the bunch either side of "unch". Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0393, tar 1.0317) remains intact, the daily Parabolics still Short. The Spoo's (2443.00) daily MACD is poised to cross positively, but we shan't set a Long target there. Gold's (1221.1) "Baby Blues" in real-time at -85% are showing just the mildest curl higher. PPI comes due @ 05:30 PT; Yellen/Senate @ 07:00 PT.
12 Jul '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: We're nixing one of the two Market Rhythm Targets for the Swiss (cur 1.0433, tar 1.0299), keeping the 1.0317 (daily Parabolics). The BEGOS Markets are either side of "unch" save for Copper (2.6910, +0.6%), which also sports the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) at 62%; otherwise, volatility mostly is light. Gold (1216.6) is up for the 3rd straight session, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) remain flat on their floor; those for Silver (15.800) also are flatlining, (but not below the -80% level). Yellen: Transcript @ 05:30 PT, House @ 07:00 PT; Fed Tan Tome @ 11:00 PT.
11 Jul '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly in the red, save for Oil (43.94), which is more so at -1.4%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 77%. Volatility is light-to-moderate. Gold's (1209.9) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have yet to curl up. Two Market Rhythm Targets have triggered for the Swiss (1.0371), but from higher entries - daily Parabolics: entry 1.0397, tar 1.0317; and 12-hr. Price Oscillator: entry 1.0387, tar 1.0299; the Swiss' Baby Blues have notably kinked lower in real-time, (but not from above the preferred +80%). Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
10 Jul '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: Silver (15.245, -2.0%) again leads the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 134%, the white metal also the weakest of the bunch, followed by Oil (43.75, -1.3%). Only the Bond (152^05, +0.2%) and Spoo (2423.25, "unch") are not in the red, yet the latter's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are lower still; but those for Gold (1207.8, -0.3%) in real-time are barely curling higher: the yellow metal shows Market Profile resistance at 1210, a close above which may be considered for higher prices ahead. See The Gold Update for Gold vs. M2. Consumer Credit: 12:00 PT.
07 Jul '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: Silver (15.830, -1.2%) was "fat-fingered" and/or "flash-crashed" at 16:06 PT yesterday, falling 11% on 4,954 cacs trading within 60 seconds, recovering the bulk of its loss within a few minutes; (at that time of day, only a handful of cacs typically trade per minute). The BEGOS Markets are all presently lower, save for the Spoo (2409.50, "unch"), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) working lower still; those for Gold (1221.5, -0.3%) have yet to curl upwards. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0432, tar 1.0276) has been nixed. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
06 Jul '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2419.50, -0.4%) is leading the BEGOS Markets EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%, whilst weakest are both the Bond (152^23, -0.5%) and Silver (15.975, -0.5%); firmest is Oil (45.87, +0.6%). We've a Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0409, tar 1.0276) as the 8-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed negative from 1.0420. Gold's (1223.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) seem settling in the -86% area, the recent low being 1216.5; we're watching for the Blues to curl upward. ADP due @ 05:15 PT; Trade Deficit due @ 05:30 PT; ISM(Svc) due @ 07:00 PT.
05 Jul '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: The two-day GLOBEX session continues, Gold (1221.8) a tad weaker but still the BEGOS Markets leader +0.2%. Oil (46.42) has come off the boil, now -1.3%, the weakest of the bunch. Rangiest now is the Swiss (1.0394, -0.3%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 121%. The Bond (153^01), Gold and Silver (15.970) are fairly buried at the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles, the "Baby Blues" also being quite low for the PMs, but for the Bond only just crossing the 0% axis in real-time suggestive of still lower levels. Factory Orders: 07:00 PT; FOMC Mins (14 Jun): 11:00 PT.
04 Jul '17, 05:38 Pacific Time: Stateside physical bourses are closed for Independence Day, but the two-day GLOBEX trading session carries on, with a trading halt later today from from 10:00-15:00 PT. Volatility is nonetheless moderate across the BEGOS Markets, the Bond (153^07, +0.2%) being the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) of 80%. Gold (1224.0) has fallen from its 1240-1280 box, yet is the firmest of the bunch, +0.4%; Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have fallen below their -80% level; once they begin curling upward will oft herald the start of a tradable uptrend.
03 Ju1 '17, 07:46 Central Euro Time: All of the BEGOS Markets presently are mildly lower, save for the Spoo (2426.75, +0.2%) with an abbreviated StateSide equities session today. Weakest are the Bond (153^10), Gold (1237.8), and Oil (46.18), all -0.3%; the latter has crossed back up into the 46s as was suggested by the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling higher. The Bond is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 57%, followed by Copper's (2.7030) 55% tracing and Gold's 52% tracing. The ISM(Mfg) Index and Construction Spending both come due at 16:00 CET.
30 Jun '17, 08:25 Central Euro Time: The Spoo's (2421.00, "unch") trading range yesterday of 43 points was the widest since 09 Nov '16 (138 points); the day's net loss of -21 points was the worst since 17 May (-41 points); still, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are only just now crossing sub-0% in real-time, suggestive of lower levels in the days/weeks ahead, (albeit the Spoo has defied negative technicals time and again). Save for Oil (45.20, +0.7%), the BEGOS Markets are little changed either way, and volatility is light-to-moderate. Pers Inc/Spd/PCE: 14:30 CET; Chi PMI: 15:45 CET.
29 Jun '17, 08:47 Central Euro Time: Cac vol for Silver (Jul 16.820) is moving into Sep (16.890); 2nd on the upside only to Copper (2.7020, +1.0%), Silver (+0.4%) is having its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) starting to curl higher, suggestive of further push back up into the lower 17s. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with the balance of the components "unch"-to-higher, the Dollar (95.610) hitting lows not seen since early last Oct. The aforementioned upturn in Oil's (44.93) Baby Blues look to lead price back through the 45s and across the 46 threshold. Final Q1 GDP revision at 14:30 CET.
28 Jun '17, 08:51 Central Euro Time: Yesterday's strength in the EuroCurrencies is seeing some follow-through, the Euro (1.14205, +0.3%) back up into the 1.14-handle for the first time since June a year ago. Benefitting too are the PMs, with Silver (16.760) +0.8% and Gold (1251.7) +0.3%. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 69% is the Bond (155^02), presently the weakest component -0.3%. Cac vol is moving in Copper (Jul 2.6505) into Sep (2.6650). Oil's (44.08, +0.8%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have begun curling to the upside. Pending Home Sales come due at 16:00 CET.
27 Jun '17, 08:58 Central Euro Time: Gold (1251.4) is both the BEGOS Markets upside leader, +0.5%, as well as the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 86%; still, price remains "box-bound" (1240-1280), the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing their fall, as do they for Silver (16.610, +0.3%). Presently, all components are higher, save for the Spoo (2435.25, "unch"): our "live" p/e for the S&P (2439.07) is 35.1x. At Market Ranges, the EDTRs for the EuroCurrencies and the Bond (157^02, +0.1%) are their narrowest in a year. Consumer Confidence comes due at 16:00 CET.
26 Jun '17, 08:37 Central Euro Time: Starting the week higher are Oil (43.46, +0.7%), the Spoo (2437.75, +0.2%), and Copper (2.6280, +0.1%), the balance of the 5 other BEGOS Markets presently lower, the weakest being Gold (1254.5, -0.3%); the Gold Update assesses the yellow metal's being docked in a box, i.e. the seemingly inescapable 1240-1280 zone. Volatility amongst the components is running light-to-moderate. The trading range for the Spoo was almost identical for the past three days from last week, (between 2428 and 2440): 'tis approximating same thus far today. Durables: 14:30 CET.
23 Jun '17, 11:21 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.6395) is the BEGOS Markets leader, +1.8%, with a robust EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 131%; 2nd is Silver (16.715), +1.2% with an 84% tracing; the balance of the bunch are little changed either way, with light-to-moderate volatility. Gold (1257.7) continues to work up from the base of its 1240-1280 resistance zone, the session high of 1258.9 being but 1 point from the zone's center: should the Market Profile level of 1256 be supportive, the next resistor is 1269; still, mind Gold's declining "Baby Blues", (see Market Trends). New Homes: 16:00 CET.
22 Jun '17, 09:28 Central Euro Time: The PMs are leading the pack, with Silver (16.580) presently +1.0%, followed by Gold (1253.7), +0.5%. Copper (2.5775) is both the weakest (-0.7%) and rangiest of the BEGOS bunch, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 95%. With Gold trading as low yesterday at 1241.7, we've the early appearance 'twas the test of the lower end of the 1240-1280 resistance zone, given the bounce we're seeing today; also, this session's low thus far (1246.4) is essentially at the Market Profile support level of 1247; but the resistor at 1256 has held as the high.
21 Jun '17, 08:37 Central Euro Time: A fairly muted start across the BEGOS Markets both by present change and EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings. In the last session, the PMs traded down to their lowest levels in just over a month, Gold (1246.8) reaching near the bottom of its 1240-1280 resistance zone by going sub-1243. The Spoo's (2433.00) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are beginning to roll over just a bit, (albeit not from above the preferred +80% level); that noted, the only component showing any upside strength by that same measure is the Bond (156^11). Existing Home Sales due at 16:00 CET.
20 Jun '17, 11:02 Central Euro Time: Silver (16.565) and Oil (44.56) are presently the BEGOS Markets leaders, +0.6% and +0.5% respectively; weakest is Copper (2.5795, -0.4%); save for the red metal, Bond (155^24) and Spoo (2448.25), the other 5 components are fairly buried around the bottom of their 10-day Market Profiles. Copper, Gold (1249.4) and the Euro (1.12105) have joined Oil and Silver with negative 21-day linreg trends, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time going sub-0%. The "live" p/e of the S&P (2453.46) remains extremely high at 35.3x. Q1 Current Account: 14:30 CET.
19 Jun '17, 12:42 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.5890) starts the week firmest of the BEGOS Markets, the red metal +0.7% and covering an EDTR (see Market ranges) tracing of 77%, the widest of the bunch. The PMs are the weak links, both Gold (1252.5) and Silver (16.640) -0.2%; the white metal is the 2nd of the components, (after Oil [45.12]), to see its 21-day linreg trend turn negative. The Gold Update points to several near-term textbook technical studies moving into negativity such that we may see the yellow metal test the lower boundary of the 1240-1280 resistance zone. 'Tis a quiet incoming data week.
16 Jun '17, 09:41 Central Euro Time: The cac volume for the EuroCurrencies is rolling from Jun into Sep, as it is too for Oil from Jul (44.63) into Aug (44.87). Save for Oil, which is +0.9%, the balance of the BEGOS bunch presently are little changed either way, and volatility is essentially light all 'round. Oil remains the only component with a negative 21-day linreg trend, however several of the other markets are nearing that tipping point. The ongoing divergence between the rising S&P (2432) and falling EconBaro has been in play now for some 2 months. Housing/Permits @ 14:30 CET; UofM @ 16:00 CET.
15 Jun '17, 07:55 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with Copper (2.5770) up the most at +0.5% and leading the EDTR (see Market ranges) tracings at 102%; volatility for the balance of the bunch is otherwise light-to-moderate; weakest is the Spoo (2429.75, -0.2%). Oil (44.69) is down to its lowest level since 05 May. Both Gold (1264.7) and Silver (16.970) have moved below their dominant Market Profile supports of 1269 and 17.20 respectively. 8 incoming data metrics from 14:30-16:00 CET include the Philly Fed, NY Empire Index, Ex/In Pricing, IndProd/CapUtil, and the NAHB Housing Index.
14 Jun '17, 08:25 Central Euro Time: The PMs are leading the otherwise mostly "unch" BEGOS Markets, with Silver (16.880, +0.4%) and Gold (1270.8, +0.2%). As noted, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling for all of the components, save for those (as yet) of the Spoo (2436). At Market Ranges, the Bond's (154^02) EDTR is at about its narrowest (29/32nds) in at least a year, albeit that ought likely get traced by better than 100% on the FOMC statement today at 20:00 CET. Prior to that, we've EconBaro data on both Retail Sales and the CPI at 14:30 CET, followed by Business Inventories at 16:00 CET.
13 Jun '17, 17:22 Central Euro Time: Copper (2.5915) and Silver (16.790) are the weak links thus far, both -0.9%, with the Spoo (2431.75, +0.2%) leading to the upside; that noted, we're watching for the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) to begin running out of puff should price not soon make a run to the recent all-time high (2443). In fact, save for Oil (45.69) for which as noted is the only BEGOS Market already in a negative 21-day linreg downtrend, the Baby Blues for all 8 components are dropping. The PPI came in flat for May, albeit the core rate went +0.3%. The FOMC statement is due tomorrow.
12 Jun '17, 10:50 Central Euro Time: The BEGOS Markets start the week mildly mixed on volatility that is light-to-moderate at best. Gold (1270.7) is +0.1%: The Gold Update points to price having traded last week to a marginal new high for the year (1298), en route flipping the weekly parabolic trend from Short to Long; however in real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their fall for both Gold and Silver (17.155, -0.2%). Oil's (45.96, +0.1%) 21-day linreg downtrend has steepened; such trend for the other 7 components remains up. No scheduled incoming data today for the EconBaro.
09 Jun '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are mixed and volatility moderate. The Spoo's (Jun 2434.25) cac volume is rolling into Sep (2431.75). As tied together as they've been of late, opposed today are Silver (17.330, -0.5%) and Copper (2.6260, +0.4%). In real-time, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over downward for Silver, Gold (1276.1), the EuroCurrencies and the Bond (154^05). Oil's (45.70) 21-day linreg trend is now down, the first to break the stance of all 8 components' trends having been up. The quiet data weeks ends with Wholesale Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 Jun '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, Copper (2.5790, +1.0%) the firmest of the bunch and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 107%. The balance of the components are lower, save for Silver (17.630, +0.3%) and the Spoo (2435.25, +0.1%). As anticipated, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies are now kinking lower in real-time; specific to the Swiss, (1.0351, -0.2%), its daily Parabolics would flip Short at 1.0295 (today) or about 1.0314 (tomorrow). ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi: 05:30 PT; UK voting results: from 14:00 PT onward.
07 Jun '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Save barely for the Spoo (2431.50, +0.1%), the balance of the 7 other BEGOS Markets presently are in the red, led by the Euro (1.12110, -0.7%), arguably as Banco Popular is "rescued" by Santander, the Dollar (96.910) getting the bid. With the exception of the Euro tracing 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), volatility otherwise is moderate. We'll be watching for the high levels of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) over the next few sessions to crack for both the Euro and Swiss (1.0345); Those for Silver (17.605) appear "toppy" as well. Consumer Credit due at 12:00 PT.
06 Jun '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Gold (1294.4, +1.0%) is breaking out above both the 1240-1280 resistance zone and weekly Parabolics flip level of 1285. It is presently up the most of the BEGOS Markets, followed by Silver (17.665, +0.7%). Of note, the yellow metal's high for the year is 1297.4, whilst the white metal's is 18.700. Volatility is moderate-to-robust, with the weakest of the bunch Copper (2.5190, -1.6%) also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 114%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating downward for both the red metal and Oil (47.26, -0.3%).
05 Jun '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: Volatility is light-to-moderate for the BEGOS Markets, all of which, save for the PMs, are presently lower. Copper (2.5490, -1.1%) is both the downside leader and the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 79%. Gold (1283.1, +0.1%) has come very near flipping its weekly Parabolics to Long, the session's high of 1284.7 only 2 pips from the trigger price of 1284.9 (see The Gold Update). The Spoo (1234.00, -0.1%) is running some 50 points high per our Market Values page. Productivity (Q1 Revised) at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders & ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Jun '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, the hard commodities lower and the financials higher. Weakest is Oil (47.19, -1.7%), our Market Rhythm Target (53.34) having confirmed as failed with the daily Price Oscillator now negative: Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are rolling over, the first of those for the 8 Markets for which all the Blues had been rising for at least the past 2 weeks. Firmest is the Spoo (2435.75, +0.3%). Volatility is light-to-robust, from the Swiss' (1.0304) EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of just 21% to Copper's (2.5330) 131%. Payrolls & Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT.
01 Jun '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Oil (cur 48.40, tar 53.34) looks to confirm as failed by day's end, the daily Price Oscillator now just barely positive; Oil's rising "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now stalled in real-time. Still, the 21-day linear regression trends for all 8 BEGOS Markets remain up, albeit all 8 prices are lower this session, the weakest component being Silver (17.110, -1.2%), which also is the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 120%. ADP @ 05:15 PT; Productivity (Q1 Revised) @ 05:30 PT; Construction Spending/ISM(Mfg) @ 07:00 PT.
31 May '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Waning as 'tis, Oil's (48.59, -2.1%) daily Price Oscillator is still positive, which keeps the Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 alive, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) higher yet again this session. None of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are presently changed by more than 0.5% either way, and volatility is moderate. Rangiest is the Swiss (1.0309, +0.4%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%; the Spoo (2414.25, +0.1%) has the narrowest such tracing at 29%. Incoming data includes the Chi PMI at 06:45 PT, Pending Homes at 07:00, and the Fed's Tan Tome at 11:00 PT.
30 May '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility picks up as this Sun-Tue session continues, Copper (2.5515, -0.7%) the weakest of the bunch and sporting the widest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 121%, 2nd rangiest are the EuroCurrencies, their EDTR tracings exceeding 100%. Only the Bond (154^06, +0.1%) is in the black. Oil's (49.64, -0.5%) daily Price Oscillator is still positive toward our maintaining the 53.34 Market Rhythm Target; in spite of last Thursday's price fallout, Oil's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still rising. Pers Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; ConsConf due @ 07:00 PT.
29 May '17, 04:39 Pacific Time: Physical bourses are closed StateSide, in London and in Shanghai, but with GLOBEX running we find the BEGOS Markets trading in this Sun-Tue session, albeit changes are mild and volatility thus far light. The biggest net mover at present is Oil (49.68, -0.4%), still not negative enough to move the daily Price Oscillator into negative ground, thus the Market Rhythm Target is still in play at 53.34. Volume for Gold (Jun 1266.5) is moving into the Aug cac (1269.8). As described in The Gold Update, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are on the rise for all 8 of the BEGOS Components.
26 May '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: Oil's (48.76, +0.1%) daily Price Oscillator is still to the plus side despite price itself taking a hard yet yesterday (from 52.00 to 48.45); technically, the Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 remains in place until either 'tis met or the study confirms as negative, (cash mgt. always being the key overrider). Save for Copper (2.5810, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2410.50, -0.1%), the BEGOS Markets are up and volatility runs from light-to-robust: rangiest is Gold (1267.0, +0.9%) with an EDTR tracing (see Market Ranges) of 124%; the Spoo's is just 34%. 2nd peek at Q1 GDP and Durables at 05:30 PT.
25 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2408.75, +0.2%) is up for the 6th straight day. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for all 8 BEGOS Markets are rising; that noted, per GLOBEX closes, only 2 of the components are higher, the other being the Swiss (1.0296, +0.1%). Weakest is Oil (50.63, -1.3%), which had been higher until the OPEC call to likely extend cuts 9 more months; "sell the news" or otherwise, Oil's daily Price Oscillator remains positive such that our Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 is maintained. Again, the Euro (1.12195, -0.1%) per our Market Values page still appears excessively high.
24 May '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: Oil's (51.46) daily Price Oscillator continues to rise, albeit price is barely changed, as is the case across all of the BEGOS Markets, save for Copper (2.5780, -0.8%); Oil's Market Rhythm Target of 53.34 remains in place. Components' volatility is mostly light, again except for Copper which has traced 98% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The EuroCurrencies may be topping out: as was noted in The Gold Update and per our Market Values page, the Euro (1.11995) itself is still 5¢ above its BEGOS Market valuation. Existing Homes due @ 07:00 PT; FOMC 03 May Minutes due @ 11:00 PT.
23 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: As noted, Oil (50.85) is higher over these last 2 weeks, its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) only just having crossed above their 0% axis suggesting there's more to run; thus given the confirmation of the daily Price Oscillator having crossed to positive, we've a Market Rhythm Target of 53.34. The Spoo's (2396.25) Baby Blues are in their 9th consecutive day of falling, despite price presently up for the 5th straight session. Save for Copper (2.5835, -0.7%), the balance of the BEGOS Markets are lightly changed either way and volatility is moderate. New Homes due at 07:00 PT.
22 May '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Silver (16.960, +0.7%) is both the BEGOS Markets upside leader and top EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracer at 105%; the balance of the other components' volatility is light-to-moderate. Oil's (51.05) daily Price Oscillator is provisionally crossed to positive: Oil has already had a substantive 2-week up run, yet confirmation of the cross would offer a Market Rhythm Target of 2.30 points ($2,300/cac) higher still from the subsequent session's open. Q1 Earnings Season concluded with 58% of 2,475 companies reporting higher bottom lines, 8% the same, and 34% lower than 2016's Q1.
19 May '17, 04:48 Pacific Time: The volatility in the BEGOS Markets has slowed to a bit more moderate pace than we've seen through much of the week, no one component exceeding 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges), and only the Euro (1.11885) being near that level with a 98% tracing. The recent strength in the EuroCurrencies has yet to turn their "Baby Blues" materially higher: rather, their fall has been abated. The Spoo (2369.25) is rising for the 2nd straight day, but its daily MACD has become further negative, our Market Rhythm Target thus remaining at 2331.00. Q1 Earnings Season concludes.
18 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The Spoo (2348.25, -0.3%) confirmed its negative Daily MACD cross, giving us a Market Rhythm Target for 24 points lower as measured from this session's opening (2355.00) of 2331.00, noting that the session's low already has reached down to 2344.50; again the Spoo leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 147%, followed by Copper (2.4950, -2.0%) at 121%. Silver (16.765) is -0.7%, but Gold (1261.9) is all but "unch", (basis GLOBEX closes). Again, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust. Philly Fed: 05:30 PT; Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
17 May '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Spoo (2388.50, -0.4%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 137%, followed by Gold (1246.0, +0.7%) with a 108% tracing; oddly, least volatile is Silver (16.910, +0.4%) with only a 42% tracing. The Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop and the daily MACD has provisionally crossed to negative. The 12-hour Price Oscillators for both Gold and the Bond (152^04, +0.3%) appear on track to crossing positively in a day or so. The Euro (1.11215, (+0.2%) moving back up to its StateSide pre-election level.
16 May '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Spoo's (2400.00) up move yesterday has kept the daily MACD from crossing negatively; yet in real-time, the Spoo's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are falling for their 4th straight session; those for both Gold (1233.4) and Silver (16.695) are curling higher. Volatility is robust for the upside-leading EuroCurrencies, the Euro (1.10745) having traced 117% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and the Swiss (1.0121) with a 101% tracing. For the balance of the BEGOS bunch, volatility is at best moderate. Housing Starts/Building Permits due @ 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil due @ 06:15 PT.
15 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Oil (49.25) is the session's big mover, +3.0%, with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 123%; the balance of the BEGOS Markets are mostly higher, Silver (16.625) notably +1.0%: The Gold Update cited the white metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) having kinked up on Friday; those for Gold (1231.05, +0.3%) are just so doing in real-time; volatility (ex-Oil) is otherwise moderate. The daily MACD for the Spoo (1291.25, +0.1%) still is poised to negatively cross: confirmation would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 24 points lower. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT.
12 May '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light, the range leader being the Spoo (2387.00) with a 50% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); changes are mild, the most presently being Copper (2.5165), +0.4%. The Euro's (1.08935) daily Moneyflow is on its 50 mid-line without a decisive crossover. The Spoo's daily MACD looks poised for a negative cross, barring a renewed upside move. The PMs continue to firm in working to stave off a 4th consecutive down week: mind their "Baby Blues" at Market Trends. Retail Inflation & Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment and BusInvs at 07:00 PT.
11 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are higher across the board, save for the Spoo (2391.50, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate, save for robust Copper (2.5435, +1.9%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 120%. The Euro's (1.08905) daily Moneyflow has yet to confirm a negative cross, albeit the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop, as do those for the Swiss (0.9945) which in real-time are crossing below their 0% axis. The PMs are firming, Gold (1222.5) still some 40+ points below its smooth valuation line (see Market Values). Wholesale Inflation @ 05:30 PT.
10 May '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: As was noted for the Swiss (0.9952), the Euro's (1.08835) "Baby Blues" too have let go sub-80%, suggestive of a move down into the mid-1.07s; the Euro's daily Moneyflow is nearing a cross sub-50, which if confirmed would then give us a Market Rhythm Target of $1,300/cac lower (-0.01040) from the opening of the next session. BEGOS Markets volatility is at best barely moderate, with Silver (16.305, +0.7%) the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%; narrowest is Oil (46.32, +0.3%) with a 31% tracing. Ex/Im pricing @ 05:30 PT.
09 May '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate, rangiest being the Swiss (1.0000) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 85%; powered by yesterday's down-sweep, the Swiss' "Baby Blues" in real-time are markedly falling sub-80%, suggestive of lower levels ahead, perhaps a re-test of the 10 April low at 0.9934; the Swiss' 6-hr. Price Oscillator confirmed a negative cross yesterday (12:00 PT) from 1.0040, which per our Market Rhythms page suggests an $1,800/cac drop (-0.0144 points) to 0.9898. Whsl Invs due at 07:00 PT.
08 May '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: Post-French election, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold (1235.0, +0.5%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 124% in initially dropping -7 at the open before jumping +15; volatile too are Copper (2.4875, -2.0%) in making a year-to-date low, and the EuroCurrencies. The Gold Update suggests that any further lows in this downleg wouldn't be too dear from here (1231, 1211, 1190); by its Market Magnet, Gold appears as at oversold extreme, although more broadly, not so per our Market Values page. 2 weeks still to run in Q1 Earnings Season.
05 May '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Gold (1234.0) has slipped as low as 1225.7 since falling back through the entirety of its 1240-1280 resistance zone, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) going sub-0% and the daily Price Oscillator turning negative; (more in tomorrow's Gold Update). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for Oil (45.33, -0.4%) which has traced 167% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); at Market Values, Oil is some 5 points below its smooth valuation line, a fairly extreme deviation. The session's narrowest component is the Bond (151^25) with just a 39% tracing. Payrolls data: 05:30 PT.
04 May '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Gold (1234.6) has crossed to negative; as we're not big on shorting Gold, we shan't set a Market Rhythm Target, however, 7 of the past 10 crossings of this study (up or down) have traveled at least another 40 points prior to the study's next confirmed cross, (the inference being from this session's open of 1238.5, we may see 1198.5 over the ensuing days/weeks). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with presently no material changes either way. The Trade Deficit and Q1 Productivity come due at 05:30 PT followed by Factory Orders at 07:00 PT.
03 May '17, 04:36 Pacific Time: Gold's (1254.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are crossing sub-0% in real time; Gold's daily Price Oscillator ought cross to negative today should price weaken much more. The BEGOS are quietly mixed on light volatility, save for Copper (2.5735) which is -2.5% and has traced 139% of its EDTR (see Market Trends); Market Profile support shows at 2.5550. The Bond (152^26) per its Profile is sitting on its most dominantly-traded price of the last 10 days, (Market Magnet is 153^04). ADP Jobs: 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc): 07:00 PT; FOMC: 11:00 PT (no press conf); France debate: 12:00 PT.
02 May '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are little changed, save for Copper (2.6265, -1.2%) and Oil (49.22, +1.0%); volatility again is light-to-moderate, the red metal leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 79%, whilst narrowest is the Spoo (2385.50) with only a 24% tracing. Gold's (1256.4) daily Price Oscillator is still just positive, however the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) look poised to go sub-0% tomorrow; recall this mid-1250s area was the most dominant zone for trading volume per the Market Profile a couple of weeks ago; Profile resistance presently runs from 1265-1268.
01 May '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: Silver (17.140) hit our Market Rhythm Target of 17.205; Gold's (1264.1) daily Price Oscillator has not quite slipped to negative, yet should it soon we'd expect to see the lower 1250s, an area which per The Gold Update we'd like to see hold; also therein is pointed out that Gold, now up for 4 straight months, has only made it to 5 (mutually-exclusively) twice in the past 25 years. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate; changes are lightly mixed; many non-US bourses are closed for 01 May. Pers Inc/Spd due @ 05:30 PT; Construction Spending/ISM(Mfg) due @ 07:00 PT.
28 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility again is light, save for the EuroCurrencies: the Euro (1.09570, +0.6%) has traced 125% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges) and the Swiss (1.0121, +0.3%) 119% of its EDTR. Firmest is Silver (17.425, +0.8%), but its daily Price Oscillator remains negative such as to keep our 17.205 Market Rhythm Target intact; again, the same study for Gold (1268.5) appears headed for a negative cross. The Bond (152^17) and Copper (2.5950) are the weak links, but both just -0.1%. 1st peek at a "weaker than expected" Q1 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT.
27 Apr '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo (2383.75, +0.1%), the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets all are mildly lower; volatility is light, Gold (1265.9) being the only component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing over 50% (52%). Gold's "Baby Blues" continue to freely fall as do those for Silver (17.410), the latter's Market Rhythm Target in place for 17.205 per the negative daily Price Oscillator; the same study for Gold is nearing a negative cross. Copper's (2.5975) Baby Blues are curling up, (albeit not from below the -80% level), given some price recovery. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
26 Apr '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Gold's (1266.7) "Baby Blues" are accelerating their fall whilst those for Silver (Jul 17.640) go further sub-0%; the white metal's daily Price Oscillator has confirmed crossing negative for a Market Rhythm Target of 17.205; as Silver's cac volume moves into Jul, so is that for Copper (Jul 2.5885). BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, save again for the Euro (1.09225) which has traced 100% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); presently, no one component is changed either way by more than 0.4%. The 5 primary BEGOS components are in sync per their Market Values page.
25 Apr '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: As we've been anticipating, Gold's (1272.1) "Baby Blues" (see Market Ranges) have at last broken below their +80% level, price now back into the 1240-1280 resistance zone; per Gold's recent Market Profiles, we'd eye 1255 as support; Silver's (17.815) Baby Blues in real-time have crossed below their 0% axis. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate: firmest is Copper (2.5720, +0.7%);weakest are both Gold & Silver, -0.5%; rangiest is the Euro (1.09055) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 73%. New Homes & Consumer Confidence come due & 07:00 PT.
24 Apr '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: As traders expected, most of the BEGOS Markets gapped open one way or the other post-French 1ère tour voting for president; (2ème tour is Sun, 07 May). Strength is in the EuroCurrencies, weakness is in the Yen (0.90950), Dollar (0.98950), Bond (153^01), and Precious Metals. We are nixing our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0078, tar 0.9849), the daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing above 50 (scale 0-100); the Swiss is also the most volatile of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 150%; 'tis followed by the Euro (1.08855) itself at 124%.
21 Apr '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets presently are little changed either way; volatility is light-to-moderate. At our Market Ranges page, with the exception of Copper (2.5435) and the Spoo (2354.75), the balance of the EDTRs are considerably narrow, a "hint" perhaps that ramped-up event-driven volatility is nearing. The Swiss' (1.0045) measure of daily Moneyflow is still sub-50 (at 48), keeping the Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849 in place. The Bond's (154^07) 12-hr. Parabolics would flip to Short today should price go sub-154; Spoo's daily MACD looking to cross positive. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT.
20 Apr '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The firming in the Swiss (1.0073) is pushing the daily Moneyflow (cur 47) back up toward the 50 border, putting into jeopardy our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849; the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the EuroCurrencies have been climbing throughout this week; the Euro (1.07735) today has traced 105% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); otherwise, BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes are mixed. Gold's (1280.3) Baby Blues still haven't cracked, but those for Silver (18.170) continue to fall. Philly Fed Index due @ 05:30 PT; then come Leading Indicators @ 07:00 PT.
19 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0074) is rising (now 39, scale 100-0), for which our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849 would remain barring the measure confirming a cross above 50. BEGOS Markets volatility is again moderate with changes presently mixed. Weakest is Gold (1284.3, -0.6%), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) holding at +80%, although those for Silver (18.200, -0.2%) are finally dropping (down at +60% in real-time). The upside leader is Copper (2.5485, +0.8%), yet its own Baby Blues continue to sink; those for Oil (52.95, +0.4%) look poised to roll over.
18 Apr '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Weakest is Copper (2.5520, -1.7%), the red metal again the rangiest with a 93% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Firmest is the Swiss (1.0016, +0.3%), albeit its daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (at 30 on a scale of 100-0) such that our Market Rhythm Target is still in place at 0.9849. Oil's (May 52.24) cac volume is moving into Jun (52.68); 1st notice for delivery is Mon (24 Apr). Anticipated PMs' weakness is kicking in a bit as we mind their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). Housing/Permits: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT.
17 Apr '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9998, tar 0.9849) remains in place as the daily Moneyflow is still sub-50 (cur 26, scale 100-0). The BEGOS Markets on balance are mildly higher, save for Oil (52.69, -0.4%) and the Spoo (2324.75, -0.1%); volatility is light-to-moderate, Copper (2.5890) being up the most at +0.7% and also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 81%. The marginally-higher PMs still show their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends & The Gold Update) as poised to further fall. NY Empire Index: 05:30 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT.
13 Apr '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are slightly lower-to-higher; volatility is moderate. The Euro (1.06690) is off the most, -0.3%; the Swiss' (0.9993, -0.1%) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50 (scale 100-0) such as to maintain our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849. Up the most is Copper (2.5675, +1.0%), the red metal also the rangiest component with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 97%. Gold (1290.2, +0.1%) is atop its 1240-1280 resistance zone. This is the last Globex trading session until Sunday @ 15:00 PT. PPI: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment 07:00 PT. Tomorrow: CPI, Retail Sales & Bus Invs.
12 Apr '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold's (1275.5) surge yesterday was sufficient to pull the daily Moneyflow back above 50 (scale 0-100), leaving the Shorts "deservedly" holding the bag; overnight, price briefly departed above the 1240-1280 resistance zone, and in real-time, the "Baby Blues" have kinked up, albeit those for Silver (18.320) are notched lower. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (cur 0.9960, tar 0.9849) remains in place. Save for Oil (53.63, +0.4%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are lower, led by Copper (2.5785, -1.2%); volatility again is light-to-moderate. Ex/Im pricing due @ 05:30 PT.
11 Apr '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: The Swiss' (0.9968) daily Moneyflow remains well-sub-50 (at 16) toward maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 0.9849; Gold's (1259.3) daily Moneyflow has confirmed going sub-50, which for the Shorts suggests we'll see 1243.8; Silver's (17.930) daily MACD has provisionally crossed negative. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for both PMs are falling such as to also suggest lower price levels near-term; that noted, Gold has scrabbled back above the dominant 1255 Market Profile price. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, all 8 components presently little changed either way.
10 Apr '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The Gold Update states the case for Gold (1254.2) to work lower near-term, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now rolling over from the -80% level, as are those for Silver (17.930). As well, Gold's daily Moneyflow is provisionally sub-50, whilst Silver's daily MACD is approaching a negative cross; Gold's Market Profile shows 1255 as the most dominantly-traded price for last 2 weeks. The Swiss' (0.9940) daily Moneyflow is lower still (18), our Market Rhythm Target there still 0.9849. The BEGOS Markets are mostly lower, the outlier being Oil (52.63, +0.7%); volatility is light-to-moderate.
07 Apr '17, 04:14 Pacific Time: The Syrian affair effectively has BEGOS Markets volatility running at a robust pace, Gold (1265.2, +0.9%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 168%, followed by Silver (18.395, +0.7%) with a 125% tracing, and then Oil (52.21, +0.9%) at 124%. Our Market Rhythm Target for the Swiss (0.9982, -0.1%) is still in place at 0.9849, the daily Moneyflow now down to 23 (scale 100-0). Despite the overnight flight to safety, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time another notch lower; those for Silver are toppy. Payrolls data @ 05:30 PT; Whsl Invs @ 07:00 PT.
06 Apr '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The daily Moneyflow for the Swiss (1.0007) is lower still (31 on a scale of 100-0), our Market Rhythm Target remaining at 0.9849. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the changes mixed: firmest is Oil (51.31, +1.0%), whilst weakest are both the Bond (151^09) and Silver (18.240) each -0.4%. Rangiest is the Euro (1.07015) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%; narrowest is Copper (2.6770) with a 40% tracing. Gold's (1253.8) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time have just kinked down from the +85% area; similarly, we are watching for same with Silver.
05 Apr '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: Gold's (1255.4) 12-hr. MACD, having crossed back to positive and now back to negative, is so indecisive such that we've nixed the Market Rhythm Target of 1232.6; the Target for the Swiss (cur 1.0003, tar 0.9849) remains in place as the daily Moneyflow continues to sink sub-50. Volatility is fairly light for the BEGOS Markets, 6 of which are little changed, save for Oil (51.58, +0.9%) and Copper (2.6515, +1.2%): the red metal is the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 92%; the rest are all less than 60%. ADP: 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
04 Apr '17, 04:13 Pacific Time: The Bond's (152^06) rapid up-shot yesterday through the 12-hr. Parabolics nixed our 148^23 Market Rhythm Target; today, Gold's (1259.7) 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed back to positive, which if confirmed come 12:00 PT would as well nix that Target of 1232.6; the Swiss' (1.0014) daily Moneyflow remains sub-50, maintaining the 0.9849 Target. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate. Both Silver (18.360) and Oil (50.46) are up the most at +0.4%; weakest is the Euro (1.06835, -0.2%). Trade Deficit @ 05:30 PT; Factory Orders @ 07:00 PT.
03 Apr '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Targets abound: still open are those for the Bond (cur 150^30, tar 148^23) and Gold (cur 1247.4, tar 1232.6); plus as anticipated, both the Euro (1.06915) and Swiss (1.0013) confirmed their daily Moneyflows crossing sub-50, the Swiss (per the Market Rhythms page) having in prior crossings been the more profitable of the 2, so we'll set the Target there at 0.9849, (ideally from the session's open of 1.0017). Save for the Spoo (2359.25, +0.1%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are a bit lower and volatility is mostly light. ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT.
31 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.6565) whipsaw in price yesterday flipped the daily Parabolics to Long, thus nixing our Market Rhythm Target of 2.5935. Gold's (Jun 1244.1) 12-hr. MACD did confirm crossing negative yesterday at 12:00 for a Target (from 1246.6) of 1232.6. The Bond's (150^15) 12-hr. Parabolics remain Short, the Target there still 148^23. The daily Moneyflows on both the Euro (1.07205) and Swiss (1.0038) are crossing sub-50 (scale 100-0) such that they may have Targets in beginning next week. The BEGOS Markets are little changed and narrow. Pers Inc/Spd: 05:30; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT.
30 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: The cac volume has moved into Jun for Gold (1253.2); its 12-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to negative, which if confirmed at 12:00 PT would set a Market Rhythm Target from that time of 14 points lower. Targets remains in place for Copper (cur 2.6635, tar 2.5935) and the Bond (cur 151^12, tar 148^23). The BEGOS Markets on balance are skewed a bit lower, the weakest being Silver (18.170, -0.5%); only the Bond and Swiss (1.0091) are higher, both by +0.1%; volatility is basically light; the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is Copper's 58%. Final Q4 GDP: 05:30 PT.
29 Mar '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^25) 12-hr. Parabolics confirmed their flip to Short (from 150^26) to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 148^23; Copper's (2.6655) daily Parabolics remain Short, our Target there 2.5935. Gold's (1252.0) 12-hr. MACD is nearing a negative crossover, which if confirmed (perhaps in the next day or 2) would then set a Target for 14 points lower. Similar to this time yesterday, the BEGOS Markets a little changed and volatility mostly is light, save for the Euro (1.08330) which has traced 70% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). "Brexit" begins; Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
28 Mar '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Having being robust, BEGOS Markets volatility has swung to light with changes presently minimal either way, the most being for Oil (48.12, +0.6%); rangiest is Copper (2.6310, -0.2%) with but a 52% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges); Copper's daily Parabolics have confirmed flipping Long for a Market Rhythm Target (from 2.6375) of 2.5935. We're watching the Bond's (151^18, +0.1%) 12-hr. Parabolics, which per the Market Rhythms page would set up a downside target of $2,100/cac (2^04 points) upon confirming a flip to Short. Consumer Confidence due at 07:00 PT.
27 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: A robust start to the week for the BEGOS Markets, led higher by Gold (1256.9, +1.1%) and to the downside by Copper (2.5840, -2.1%); the red metal is also the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 121%; 2nd in the tracings is the Spoo (2326.75, -0.7%) at 112%. Despite being lower, Oil's (47.59, -1.1%) "Baby Blues" (see 23 Mar) still appear in early up-curl; price's most recent low was 47.01 on 22 Mar. As cited in The Gold Update, the Euro (1.09075, +0.6%) is at an extreme above its smooth valuation line (see Market Values), further exacerbated by today's rise.
24 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is running light-to-moderate with the components at present little changed either way: up the most is Oil (47.90, +0.5%), whilst equally down the most is Copper (2.6365 -0.5%); rangiest is the Swiss (1.0137, +0.2%) with a 93% tracing of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). At Market Profiles, both the Bond (150^12) and Gold (1243.8) are just below dominant trading resistors, respectively at 150^22 and 1248.0. At Market Values, the Euro (1.08445) appears at a high extreme vis-à-vis the smooth valuation line. Durable Orders @ 05:30 PT.
23 Mar '17, 04:15 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 150^14, tar 150^28) was reached. Gold's (1247.8) daily Price Oscillator has crossed to positive, for which we'd normally set a Target given that study is presently on the Market Rhythms page listing; but with price having entered the 1240-1280 resistance zone, we shan't formally set such Target. The BEGOS Markets are little changed and volatility is mostly light. At Market Trends, Oil's (48.40) "Baby Blues" in real-time are now just perceptively curling up, albeit still sub their -80% level. New Home Sales come due @ 07:00 PT.
22 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^13) Market Rhythm Target of 150^28 is within the day's EDTR (see Market Ranges), the high (150^25) already having come close and the 12-hr. Price Oscillator working higher. Yesterday's note on the Spoo's (2341.00) having yet to materially respond to its falling "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) finally saw price crack, the 21-day linreg trend itself only now just rotating from up to down, the Blues in real-time crossing sub-0%. The BEGOS Markets are little changed, save for Oil (47.63, -1.1%); volatility is moderate. Existing Home Sales come due @ 07:00 PT.
21 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: We have a fresh Market Rhythm Target for the Bond (cur 148^26, tar 150^28), its 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed as positive at 00:00 PT (midnight) from 148^31. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate-to-robust, the Euro (1.08565, +0.6%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 123%. Up the most is Oil (49.26, +0.7%) and weakest is Copper (2.6395, -0.5%). The Spoo's (2374.50, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in their 12th consecutive day of dropping without price having materially let go to the downside. Q4 Current Account: 05:30 PT.
20 Mar '17, 04:18 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility is moderate. Oil (48.74, -1.1%) is both the weakest of the bunch and the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 59%; price is just below the dominant Market Profile level of 49.00. Gold (1232.7, +0.3%) is the firmest component. The Gold Update cites the yellow metal's nearing entrapment between the rising weekly parabolic Long trend and the 1240-1280 resistance zone; in real-time, Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have kinked up, whilst those for Silver (17.415, "unch") have, for the present, stalled their fall.
17 Mar '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Again a mostly moderate volatility session for the BEGOS Markets also finds them mostly higher, save for the Euro (1.07870), -0.3%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 64%. The PMs are still firm post FedHike, Gold (1228.3) having reached our "non"-Market Rhythm Target of 1230.5. Oil's (Apr 49.03) cac volume is moving into May (49.52) with 1st notice next Thu (23 Mar). Oil, Gold, Silver (17.370) and the Bond (147^28) have been tracking the same over the past 21 days. IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; UofM Sentiment/LEI: 07:00 PT.
16 Mar '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Save for the Bond (147^22, -0.5%), the other 7 BEGOS Markets are maintaining their post FedHike gains. Copper (2.6915) is firmest, +0.8%, followed by Oil (49.24, +0.6%) and then the PMs. Rangiest is the Bond with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 82%, volatility being moderate across the BEGOS spectrum. Gold's (1224.1) 12-hr. MACD produced a positive crossing, but in measuring that from 1216.5, 'tis a bit steep already to set a Market Rhythm Target for 1230.5, especially as 1228.7 has since traded. Housing Starts/Building Permits & Philly Fed all due at 05:30 PT.
15 Mar '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are higher, even though the Dollar (101.435) is only barely lower at -0.2%; volatility is light-to-moderate, both Copper (2.6615) up the most at +0.6% and Gold (1201.0, +0.2%) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 60%; least volatile is Silver (16.915, +0.2%) with a 34% tracing. At Market Trends, the "Baby Blues" continue to fall for the Bond (147^02), Oil (48.73), the Spoo (2368.25) and the PMs. At Market Magnets, Oil is off an extreme low. CPI/Retail Sales/Empire Index: 05:30 PT; BusInvs/NAHB: 07:00 PT; FOMC: 11:00 PT; Yellen: 11:30 PT.
14 Mar '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Yesterday's provisional positive crossing of the Bond's (146^01) 8-hr. MACD failed to confirm, so no Market Rhythm Target was set. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and the components lightly mixed: Oil (48.69) is firmest, +0.5%, whilst weakest is the Euro (1.06840), -0.2%; rangiest is the Swiss (0.9972, -0.1%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%. Although its 21-day linreg trend remains positive, the Spoo's (2369.25) "Baby Blues" (See Market Trends) are falling for the 8th straight day. FOMC's 2-day stint begins. PPI comes due at 05:30 PT.
13 Mar '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: The Bond's (147^03) 8-hr. MACD has provisionally crossed to positive: if confirmed at 08:00 PT, we'll have a Market Rhythm Target of 1^26 points higher ($1,800/cac). The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate, save for the Spoo (2366.25) for which the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing is just 30%; rangiest is the Swiss (0.9976) with an 89% tracing. Copper (2.6325) is presently changed the most, +1.2%. The Gold Update highlights the negative 21-day linreg trends across the BEGOS components, except for the Spoo, but the PMs are showing firmness today.
10 Mar '17, 04:42 Pacific Time: The Market Rhythm Target for Copper (cur 2.5910, tar 2.5585) was reached yesterday. Silver's (19.930) daily Price Oscillator confirmed a cross to negative, but as price is so near a key "fib" retracement level (16.81, as depicted in the still current Gold Update from last Sat), we shan't set a further downside Target. The BEGOS Markets are modestly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, the Spoo (2371.25, +0.3%) being the rangiest with an EDTR tracing of 75%. Cac volume in the EuroCurrencies is moving from Mar into Jun; 1st position is Mon. Payrolls data due at 05:30 PT.
09 Mar '17, 04:17 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5665) daily Price Oscillator is working lower, our Market Rhythm Target of 2.5585 still intact; the Spoo's (2362.00) daily MACD is extending its negative stance. The Precious Metals "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have crossed sub-0% in real-time, the 21-day linreg trends now down. Oil (49.29) is off the most, -1.8%, of the BEGOS Markets, all of which are lower, except for the EuroCurrencies; volatility is moderate, save for Oil having traced 181% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Jun becomes Spoo's "front month". ECB: 04:45 PT; Draghi & Ex/Im Pricing: 05:30 PT.
08 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: The daily Price Oscillator for Copper (2.6245) confirmed a negative cross giving us a Market Rhythm Target of 2.5585; the widely-watched daily MACD on the Spoo (2365.50) is confirmed as negative, however we shan't set a specific downside Target there, (see yesterday's note). BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate, no 1 component at present changed by more than 0.5% either way. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continuing falling for the Precious Metals, their 21-day linreg trends rotating from up to down. ADP: 05:15 PT; Q4 Productivity(Rev): 05:30; Whsl Invs: 07:00 PT.
07 Mar '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.6380) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally crossed to negative: if confirmed at close, we'd have a Market Rhythm Target of 0.0560 points ($1,400) lower from the next session's open. The Spoo's (2371.75) daily MACD also has provisionally crossed to negative: this study is at present not on our Market Rhythms page (given the performance qualifications thereon), but it remains a key measure in the trader/investor community. The BEGOS Markets are mixed with little change in either direction; volatility is running light-to-moderate. Trade Deficit comes due at 05:30 PT.
06 Mar '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: Market Rhythm Target signals for we're watching include pending negative crossings in the Spoo's (2375.25) daily MACD, both Silver's (17.865) and Copper's (2.6575) daily Price Oscillators, and a positive crossing in the Bond's (149^22) 8-hr. MACD; the latter is the only BEGOS Market presently higher, +0.1%, Copper being off the most at -1.8%. The Gold Update highlights Silver's Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) breaking down; those for the EuroCurrencies are beginning to curl up from below their respective -80% levels. Factory Orders come due at 07:00 PT.
03 Mar '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: Gold (1227.0) reached the Market Rhythm Target of 1231.9. More notably, Silver's (17.725) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have finally cracked; should a material correction ensue, downside "fib" levels we're noting per the up-run from the December lows are in the areas of 17.500, 17.100 & 16.800. The Spoo's (1278.50) Blues still have yet to break down. BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate and changes are mixed, Gold being off the most at -0.6%; the Euro (1.05475) is firmest at +0.4%. ISM(Svc) @ 07:00 PT. Both Yellen & Fischer have addresses @ 10:00 PT.
02 Mar '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: All 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red and volatility is moderate, the weakest component being Gold (1240.2, -0.8%), its 12-hr. MACD becoming further negative and its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now noticeably starting to roll over; those for Silver (18.340, -0.7%) have yet to break down. The Dollar (102.095), whilst higher, is still below its Jan high of 103.815, (the highest level since 2003). The Spoo (2391.25) closed yesterday 33 points above its Market Magnet and in real-time is 87 points above its Market Value: neither reading is overly extreme, but far from the mean.
01 Mar '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are 4 up and 4 down on moderate-to-robust volatility: Copper (2.7475) is the upside leader at +1.3% with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 104%, followed by the Spoo (2374.25, +0.4%). Weakest is Gold (1241.8, -0.6%) followed by the Bond (150^10, -0.5%) and the EuroCurrencies. Whilst we're not big on Shorting Gold, for the record, the 12-hr. MACD is negative for a Market Rhythm Target (as measured from the open at 1245.9) of 1231.9, (14 points). Pers Inc/Spd: 05:30 PT; ISM(Mfg)/Construction Spending: 07:00 PT; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
28 Feb '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light with most components mildly higher, the exception being Oil (53.94, -0.2%); the only EDTRs (see Market Ranges) tracing exceeding 50% are those of the Swiss (0.9959, +0.4%) at 89% and the Euro (1.06075, +0.1%) at 55%. Today is "1st Notice" for the Mar Bond (152^29) as the cac volume swings into Jun (151^20, +0.1%). Silver's (18.350, +0.2%) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are in real-time +94% having been +80% or higher in 24 of the prior 28 sessions. 2nd peek at Q4 GDP: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; ConsConf: 07:00 PT.
27 Feb '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: A muted start to the week for the BEGOS Markets with most EDTR (see Market Trends) tracings sub-50%, the exceptions being Oil (54.42, +0.7%) at 62% and the Euro (1.05120, +0.2%) at 51%; changes are mixed. Copper's (2.6900, +0.2%) daily Price Oscillator is near to crossing negative as are the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends), the 21-day linreg trend rotating toward going negative. Silver's (Mar 18.335, -0.1%) cac volume is moving into May (18.390); 1st notice for delivery is tomorrow. Q4 Earnings Season is complete. Durables: 05:30 PT; Pending Homes: 07:00 PT.
24 Feb '17, 04:28 Pacific Time: On mostly moderate volatility the BEGOS Markets are higher, save for Oil (54.08, -0.5%) and the Spoo (2353.50, -0.4%). Rangiest is Gold (1257.6, +0.6%) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 72%, price making a new high for the year along with Silver (18.27, +0.6%); the white metal can see a tug-of-war here as Gold's 12-hr. MACD goes positive but Copper's (Mar 2.6590) daily Parabolics flip to Short; the red metal's cac volume is shifting into May (2.6750). Q4 Earnings Season winds down today with 60% better y-o-y. UofM Sentiment & New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
23 Feb '17, 04:22 Pacific Time: As noted, the Bond's (151^20) Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) was nixed, the 12-hr. Price Oscillator having confirmed crossing positive. BEGOS Markets volatility is light, and with the exception of Oil (54.26, +0.7%), no other component is presently changed in either direction by > 0.1%. At Market Magnets, only the Spoo's (2361.75) price is excessive, some 31 points "high" as of yesterday's settle; at Market Values, 'tis 73 points "high", albeit that is a broader-based measure which neared 150 points "high" in December. Still, our "live" p/e for the S&P (2362.82) is 34.0x.
22 Feb '17, 04:21 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for the narrow trading in the PMs, both Gold (1238.5, +0.1%) and Silver (17.965, +0.1%) with respective EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings of just 33% and 30%; most rangy is the Bond (151^21, +0.3%) with an 81% tracing, along with the 12-hr. Price Oscillator provisionally crossing positive, which if confirmed nixes our Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun). We're focused on Silver and the Spoo (2356.50, -0.2%) both for which the "Baby Blues" are +80% and "due" for decline. Existing Homes: 07:00 PT; FOMC Minutes: 11:00 PT.
21 Feb '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The double session has pushed BEGOS Markets volatility into the moderate-to robust category, the EuroCurrencies and Oil (54.67) exceeding 100% of their EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings, the latter being the upside leader at +1.7%; only Copper (2.7415, +1.03%) and the Spoo (2354.00, +0.2%) also are higher, the Euro (1.05420) the weakest at -0.8%. Silver's (17.895) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are still firm, however both the white metal and Gold (1231.3) are pressing lower. The Bond's (150^23) Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) remains in place.
20 Feb '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: This 2-day session is thus far mixed for the BEGOS Markets, and volatility is mostly light; oddly with the US bourses closed, the Spoo (2351.00 +0.1%) is the rangiest of the bunch, the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing at 69%. As anticipated in The Gold Update, the precious metals, whilst barely higher, Gold (1237.2) and Silver (17.985) each +0.1%, both have made lows below those of Thu and Fri. The Bond's (151^11, -0.1%) 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, but less so give the 3-day rally: still, the Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) is being maintained.
17 Feb '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: The Bond's (Mar 151^12, Jun 150^02) 12-hr. Price Oscillator remains negative, our Market Rhythm Target of 147^08 (Jun) still in place; counter to that, the daily Parabolics are flipping to Long, but that study has been sufficiently erratic such as not to be on the Market Rhythms page list. The BEGOS Markets are mixed and volatility moderate at best: Gold (1244.03) is working higher, +0.3%, however Silver (18.04) is -0.3% as Copper (2.6925) is the weakest of the bunch, -0.7%; mind Silver's "Baby Blues" on the Market Trends page. Leading Indicators: 07:00 PT.
16 Feb '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Oil (Mar 53.41) is up the most, +0.8%, in BEGOS; cac volume is moving into Apr (53.87). The Bond (150^13) is higher, +0.2%, but its 12-hr. Price Oscillator is further negative toward maintaining our Market Rhythm Target on the Jun cac of 147^08. The Spoo (2346.75, -0.2%) has risen 7 straight sessions: the "guesstimate low if a down day" is 2337.50, near Market Profile support at 2335. BEGOS Markets Volatility is light-to-moderate; Copper (2.7320) is weakest, -0.3%. The Swiss (1.0005) leads the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 74%. Housing & Philly Fed @ 05:30 PT.
15 Feb '17, 04:33 Pacific Time: The Bond's (150^15) 12-hr. Price Oscillator has confirmed a cross to negative; as noted on our Market Rhythms page, this augurs for a full 2-point move lower (from this session's open of 150^24); however with the pending cac rollover from Mar to Jun, one might consider the latter in this case, for which we'll set a Target of 147^08. All 8 BEGOS Markets are mildly lower, and again, volatility is light. Silver (17.885) is weakest, -0.4%, but still not so much so as to tip over its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). 9 EconBaro metrics hit from 05:30-07:00 PT; Yellen/House: 07:00 PT.
14 Feb '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets Volatility is light, Oil (52.37) the most changed, +0.9%; weakest is the Bond (151^04), -0.1%. Leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings is the Euro (1.06400, +0.3%) at 53%, the Spoo (2326.00 < -0.1%) least so at 28%. Gold's (1230.8, +0.4%) daily Moneyflow (see 10 Feb) is provisionally crossing back above 50 (scale 0-100), as price remains resilient despite yesterday's test of structural support at 1220 (see The Gold Update); Silver (17.910, +0.5%) is still firm, notably as Copper (2.7955, +0.4%) has yet to drop. PPI: 05:30 PT; Yellen/Senate: 07:00 PT.
13 Feb '17, 04:35 Pacific Time: Our Market Rhythms page is becoming more populated: from late in last year's StateSide election cycle through this year-to-date, the daily list had been shrinking; its expanding now means signal follow-thoughs are becoming more reliable. The BEGOS Markets are little changed either way and volatility is light-to-moderate. We're watching for Silver's (17.940) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) to crack, their hovering above the 80% for some 3 weeks, price being firmer than Gold (1231.0), and now aided industrially by strength in Copper (2.7890). Spoo (2317.25) with new highs.
10 Feb '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: Gold (1228.0) having attained the 1240-1280 resistance zone has since pulled back, the daily Moneyflow provisionally crossing sub-50 (scale 100-0); should that be confirmed at close, our Market Rhythms page calls for a Target then of some 70 points lower: we think rather that Gold will focus on battling the overhead resistance zone; as well, the 1220 area appears as structural support. The BEGOS Markets are lightly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate, save for Copper's (2.6715) 110% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing. Ex/Im pricing: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment: 07:00 PT.
09 Feb '17, 04:29 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed with no one component presently changed > 1% either way, and volatility is moderate. Copper's (2.6680) daily Moneyflow confirmed crossing above 50 (scale 0-100) indicative of a Long signal, which by our Market Rhythms page suggests a Target of 0.0480 ($1,200/cac) points higher (from 2.6385 to 2.6865), but we shan't chase it given the red metal's declining "Baby Blues" and the uncertainties 'round strikes in Chile and Indonesia. The Swiss (1.0016) is leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 82%. Wholesale Inventories at 07:00 PT.
08 Feb '17, 04:37 Pacific Time: Gold (1240.0) has achieved our anticipated goal of at least reaching the underside of the 1240-1280 resistance zone during the present weekly parabolic Long trend (per The Gold Update of 14 Jan); 2nd to Copper (2.6725, +1.4%), Gold is up the most (+0.4%) of the BEGOS Markets, volatility moderate across the bunch, (save for the red metal's 102% tracing of its EDTR [see Market Ranges] pending a Copper strike [BHP]). EuroCurrencies are weaker, their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) now accelerating their downside fall. The Bond (152^20, +0.3%) is at a 3-week high.
07 Feb '17, 04:19 Pacific Time: The Euro's (1.06875) daily Parabolics are flipping to Short, and the Swiss' (1.0026) daily MACD is all but negatively crossed; we're not keen to set Market Rhythm Targets in either case, for as can be seen at that page, neither Rhythm presently is in the list; still, both studies on the daily time-frame are quite visible to traders at large. 7 of the 8 BEGOS Markets are in the red, (the Swiss being the weakest, -0.8%), save for the Spoo (2292.50, +0.3%. Volatility is moderate, albeit the EuroCurrencies have traced > 100% of their EDTRs (see Market Ranges). Trade Deficit due at 05:30 PT.
06 Feb '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets metals are the session's leaders, Copper (2.6325) +0.7% and both Gold (1228.6) & Silver (17.625) +0.6%. The Gold Update cites the PMs' resilience despite drops in their respective "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends); Gold's high this session (1229) is but 11 points from the 1240-1280 resistance zone which we've been targeting on this parabolic weekly Long trend. Volatility is light-to-moderate, the Euro (1.07570) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 62%; as noted, the Euro is nearing its daily parabolic flip-to-short price (currently set at 1.07168).
03 Feb '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: There's weakness across the BEGOS Markets, save for Oil (53.74) and the Spoo (2279.00), both +0.2%; volatility is moderate. The EuroCurrencies are sufficiently weakening such as to watch for a flip in the Euro's (1.07480) daily Parabolics to Short and a negative cross for the Swiss' (1.0052) daily MACD; there is Market Profile resistance for the Euro at 1.07700, yet support for the Swiss at 1.0030; in real-time, both EuroCurrencies have crossed below their Market Magnets, suggestive of lower levels near-term. Payrolls data at 05:30 PT; Factory Orders & ISM(Svc) at 07:00 PT.
02 Feb '17, 04:31 Pacific Time: Post-Fed, 'tis all about further Dollar (99.365) fallout, the EuroCurrencies on the rise, as is Oil (54.13, +1.1%), Silver (17.695, +0.9%) and Gold (1223.5, +1.0%), the latter leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 108%; BEGOS Markets volatility is otherwise moderate. Making highs for this year are both Silver and Gold, the latter having seen 1226 this session and seemingly en route to at least the base of the 1240-1280 resistance zone as anticipated during this parabolic Long trend on the weekly bars per The Gold Update. Q4 Productivity (Prelim) due at 05:30 PT.
01 Feb '17, 04:24 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate with most components presently little changed either way, save for Oil (53.20), +0.8%. Rangiest is Copper (2.7135) with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 54%. At Market Values, none of the primary components are in an excessive stance, and notably for Gold (1213.0), despite its strength these last few days, price is only 7 points above its Market Magnet, (an extreme reading is more on the order of 50 points distance). A busy session of incoming data: ADP: 05:15PT; ISM(Mfg) & Construction: 07:00; FOMC (no change): 11:00 PT.
31 Jan '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Straightway we're nixing Silver's (17.395) Market Rhythm Target of 16.870, price's upside whip having now provisionally flipped the daily Parabolics to Long; with the FOMC in tomorrow's balance, we'll take pause as regards a higher Target, especially with the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in decline; amongst the BEGOS Markets, Silver is also the most volatile with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 118%; volatility for the balance of the up bunch is moderate; only Oil (52.53) and the Spoo (2273.25) are barely in the red. ECI: 05:30 PT; Chi PMI: 06:45 PT; ConsConf: 07:00 PT.
30 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: As noted, the daily Parabolics for Silver (17.115) confirmed the flip to Short to give us a Market Rhythm Target (from this session's open at 17.170) of 16.870. Gold's (1189.8) cac volume is moving from Feb (1st notice for delivery is tomorrow) into Apr (1192.5). BEGOS Markets volatility is mostly moderate, save for the Euro (1.06525) which has traced 121% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). The Gold Update notes the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the 3 BEGOS Metals and 2 EuroCurrencies all curling lower. Personal Inc/Spd @ 05:30 PT; Pending Homes @ 07:00 PT.
27 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Silver's (16.725) daily Parabolics have provisionally flipped to Short, which would give us a Market Rhythm Target of 0.300 points ($1,500/cac) lower from the opening price of the next session (Sunday, 15:00 PT). The BEGOS Markets are quietly mixed and volatility light-to-moderate. The declining "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are accelerating their falls for both Silver and Gold (1183.0); those for the EuroCurrencies as well as for Copper (2.6770) are just beginning to curl over to the downside from their +80 levels. 1st peek at Q4 GDP due @ 05:30 along with Durable Orders.
26 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Save for the Swiss (1.0051) and Spoo (2294.50), the balance of the other 6 BEGOS Markets are lower; volatility is moderate, the rangiest EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing being that for Gold (1187.7) at 97%. Again, this pullback in both Gold and Silver (16.810) is coincident with their "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling over; those for the Bond (149^05) have been dropping for better than a week, and per our 19 Jan comment, the 148s have now been touched (low 148^30). The Spoo's daily MACD is turning positive, but we shan't chase it. LEI/New Homes @ 07:00 PT.
25 Jan '17, 04:20 Pacific Time: That of which we've been wary, the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the PMs are in real-time kinking down following their multi-week up run; this does not preclude Gold's (1205.2) being able to reach at least 1240 per the fresh weekly parabolic Long trend, (which presently has room down to 1129 to remain Long), but the incipient falling of the blue dots can herald some near-term pullback. Silver (16.975), -0.8% and with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 102%, is both the weakest and rangiest of the BEGOS Markets, which are otherwise are mixed with moderate volatility.
24 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed on mostly moderate volatility. Separately, the Dollar (100.305) is modestly higher, which if maintained, would be just the 5th up day for the Buck through 16 sessions year-to-date; further rising could finally knock down the high levels of the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the PMs and EuroCurrencies; the "Baby Blues" for the Bond (151^18) continue to drop, albeit its daily MACD is flattening more than making a decisive negative cross. At Market Profiles, the Spoo's (2261.75) dominant trading handle is 2265. Existing Homes come due at 07:00 PT.
23 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, 6 of the 8 higher, led by Copper (2.6400), +0.9%; weakest is Oil (52.62), -1.2%. The "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) for the Bond (150^26) are furthering their fall, price on Friday having gone sub-150. The Gold Update points to price's (1213.1) having risen for 4 straight weeks sufficient to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long, the typical follow-through suggestive of a move at least up to the lower boundary of the 1240-1280 resistance zone; still, mind too the lofty levels of the "Baby Blues" for both Gold and Silver (17.170).
20 Jan '17, 04:27 Pacific Time: As the Bond's (150^05) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) continue to drop, the daily MACD is approaching a negative cross, (albeit that study had not recently qualified to make our Market Rhythms list). But the same study for Copper (2.6045) is on the list and also is approaching a negative cross; the red metal's "Baby Blues" may ratchet lower in a day or 2. Save for Oil (52.87) and the Spoo (2265.50), the 6 other BEGOS Markets are lower, and volatility is moderate. Rangiest is the Bond with a 79% EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, followed by Silver (16.945) at 71%.
19 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mixed, presently with little change either way; volatility is moderate, the 3 metals having shown the most movement of the bunch. As noted, we've now got the Bond's (151^15) "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) curling downward, the chart suggestive of a run down into the 148s. Similar blue dot drops from high levels may be in store for the PMs: Gold's (1203.5) "live" Baby Blue is +95%, whilst that for Silver (16.995) is +89%; still, with Gold's weekly parabolic trend now Long, we're eying 1240. ECB @ 04:45 PT; Housing/Philly Fed/Draghi @ 05:30 PT.
18 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Save for the Spoo's (2263.50) being +0.1%, the balance of the other 7 BEGOS Markets are down, lead by Oil (Feb 51.70), for which the cac volume is moving into Mar (52.54), -1.5%; 'tis also leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 90%; otherwise, volatility is mostly moderate. Mind the Bond (152^23), its "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) in real-time just kinking lower, albeit still above the +80% level; that said, at Market Values, the Bond is well in line with its smooth valuation line. CPI: 05:30 PT; IndProd/CapUtil: 06:15 PT; NAHB: 07:00 PT; Fed's Tan Tome: 11:00 PT.
17 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 2-day session continues, the effect being a robust volatility reading for the BEGOS Markets, and which at present are bouncing about as Theresa May speaks on Brexit. Gold (1214.2) remains the leader, +1.4%, clearly satisfying our Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3, yet we're still eying 1240; but Copper (2.6405) is now the weakest, -2.4% and leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 176%; the red metal was getting high vs. its Market Magnet. Only the Spoo (2262.75), too, is lower at -0.4%, the balance of the bunch all higher. NY Empire comes due @ 05:30 PT.
16 Jan '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: This Sunday-Tuesday GLOBEX session finds the BEGOS Markets mixed and volatility moderate. Gold (1204.1) is leading both by gain, +0.6%, and by EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing, 72%; as anticipated in The Gold Update, the overnight high of 1208.7 was sufficient to flip the weekly parabolic trend to Long, which in turn opens the door for a run up to at least the bottom of the 1240-1280 resistance zone; obviously en route, the Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3 would be hit as 'twas signaled by the daily Price Oscillator, (see 10 Jan). Oil (52.15) is weakest of the bunch, -0.7%.
13 Jan '17, 04:30 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is moderate with changes fairly modest either way, save for Oil (52.43) -1.1%; 'tis also the rangiest of the bunch with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 61%; quietest is the Spoo (2265.50) with just a 22% tracing. At Market Trends, Gold's (1197.5) "Baby Blues" have stretched (in real-time) above +80%; only those for the Bond (152^29) are as high, both markets having put in solid 21-day linreg uptrends, (with the balance of the other 6 components all still tilting upward as well). PPI/Retail Sales: 05:30 PT; UofM Sentiment/BusInvs: 07:00PT.
12 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: The 3 metals components of BEGOS are the session's leaders, with Gold (1204.6),Silver (16.940) and Copper (2.6280) all +1.1%. The yellow metal's high (1207.2) is near to its Market Rhythm Target of 1209.3, the daily Price Oscillator still positive and growing, as are the "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends). The balance of the bunch are also higher, ex-the Spoo (2263.75) -0.3%. The 21-day linreg trends of all 8 markets are positive at the expense of the Dollar (100.840) which year-to-date has essentially been falling. Ex/Im Pricing due @ 05:30 PT; Treasury Budget due @ 11:00 PT.
11 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: The BEGOS Markets are mildly mixed; volatility is light-to-moderate; no one component is presently changed either way by more than 0.5%. Gold's (1188.4) daily Price Oscillator is growing to the positive side, the Market Rhythm Target in place at 1209.3; Gold's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) have room to further ascend, whilst at Market Values, price has only just returned up to its smooth valuation line, (albeit at Market Magnets, Gold might appear momentarily a bit high, but not to the extent 'twas when to the downside). Our Earnings Season page is characterizing the data from Q4.
10 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5700) daily Price Oscillator has provisionally swung to positive, calling for a nix of our 2.4470 Market Rhythm Target. Gold's (1185.0) daily Price Oscillator confirmed its swing to positive, giving us Target of 1209.3, ($2,800/cac as measured from this session's open of 1181.3). BEGOS Markets volatility is again light-to-moderate, Copper the rangiest with an EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracing of 84%, with price up the most at +1.5%. 7 of the 8 components are higher, save for the Bond (152^20) which is just off at -0.1%. Whole Inventories due at 07:00 PT.
09 Jan '17, 04:16 Pacific Time: BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, the Bond (152^12) leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 70%. Gold (1179.6) is firmest +0.6%, and Oil (53.01) weakest -1.3%. Despite some recent buoyancy, Copper's (2.5320) daily Price Oscillator is still negative, so we still maintain its Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. The same study for Gold has provisionally crossed to positive: should that confirm at today's close, we'd be targeting a further 28 points higher ($2,800/cac) as measured from the next opening (today at 15:00 PT). Consumer Credit due @ 12:00 PT.
06 Jan '17, 04:32 Pacific Time: Copper's (2.5310) daily Price Oscillator remains to the negative side such that the Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470 is still intact; but the red metal's "Baby Blues" (see Market Trends) are now on the rise from the -80% level, a portent of higher prices ahead. Conversely, the Spoo's (2263.50) "Baby Blues" continue their slide, with price itself having yet to crack, but 'twould appear due. BEGOS Markets volatility is light-to-moderate, save for Silver (16.525) which has traced 120% of its EDTR (see Market Ranges). Payrolls and Trade Deficit: 05:30 PT; Factory Orders: 07:00 PT.
05 Jan '17, 04:25 Pacific Time: Oil (53.80) swiftly met our fresh Market Rhythm Target of 52.20; Copper's (2.5570) Target of 2.4470 is still on the table given the ongoing negative daily Price Oscillator; Gold's (1174.1) daily moneyflow continues its advance above the 50 level, price having already all but touched the suggested 1180s. Gold and Silver (16.620) are both the BEGOS Markets leaders, each +0.8%; volatility is moderate-to-robust, Gold leading the EDTR (see Market Ranges) tracings at 118%. The Spoo (2260.25) is the weakest link, -0.2%. ADP is due @ 05:15 PT; ISM(Svc) is due @ 07:00 PT.
04 Jan '17, 04:23 Pacific Time: Volatility is moderate across the BEGOS Markets, all of which are higher save for the Bond (150^19) which is a pip below "unch". The leaders are both Silver (16.480) and Copper (2.5075), both +0.8%. Still, the red metal's daily Price Oscillator is negative, thus maintaining our Market Rhythm Target of 2.4470. Oil's (52.64) daily Moneyflow continues sub-50 (scale 100-0), so its Target of 52.20 is in place. The same study for Gold (1165.3) has crossed above 50, suggestive of the 1180s; the foot of our Gold page presently highlights that study. FOMC Minutes (14 Dec) @ 11:00 PT.
03 Jan '17, 04:26 Pacific Time: Another trading year commences with the usual robust volatility for the BEGOS Markets, with the EuroCurrencies, Bond (149^07), and Gold (1149.0) lower, and the industrial metals, Oil (54.91) and the Spoo (2254.50) higher. However, Oil's daily Moneyflow has confirmed a sub-50 downside crossing (scale 100-0) to give us a Market Rhythm Target of 52.20; at Market Values, Oil shows as some 5 full points "high". Copper's (2.5280) Target of 2.4470 remains in place given the still negative daily Price Oscillator. ISM(Mfg) & Construction kick off the year's EconBaro data at 07:00 PT.
(Note: Archived Commentary prior to 2017 back into 2013 is available upon request.)
